Go Global Russia - Aftermarket
Transcription
Go Global Russia - Aftermarket
Go Global Russia - Aftermarket A study of the Russian Automotive Aftermarket Written at the request of FKG/Fordonskomponentgruppen and Tillväxtverket by: Per-Olof Egli ISEA – Industry Senior Advisors + 46 708 23 03 53, per-olof.egli@isea-sweden.com 2 Preface This study has been made by Per-Olof Egli at “ISEA – Industry Senior Advisors”. Per-Olof co-operates with FKG since 2007 and he has been the project leader for a number of “Go Global Russia” projects. He speaks fluent Russian and over the years he has built up large net of contacts within the commercial spheres in the Russian-speaking world. During the last years this has been, to a large extent, concentrated to the Automotive Industry. This report is meant to give an impression of the Russian Automotive Aftermarket, in order to facilitate Swedish suppliers’ entry onto the Russian market. The project is financed by Tillväxtverket under ”Leverantörsprogrammet för Fordonsindustrin”. FKG is the initiator of the project. 3 Table of Content Introduction .................................................................................................................. 5 Background to the Russian automotive market............................................................ 6 Current market situation............................................................................................... 7 Profitability of the automotive market ..................................................................... 7 The Russian market for car service ........................................................................... 7 Russian car sales and production statistics ............................................................... 8 Size of the Russian aftermarket and its future development ..................................... 13 Market structure and players...................................................................................... 22 Specifics on the Russian Market.............................................................................. 22 Sales structure and regionalisation ......................................................................... 22 Marketing channels ................................................................................................. 27 Conclusions ................................................................................................................. 28 4 Introduction When discussing sales of automotive components we very often talk about sales directly to the OEM and to the conveyor. This is of course the main issue for most of the component suppliers, but it is important to remember that most of the cars are run for many years and need to be repaired. It is difficult to make estimations of the size of a country’s aftermarket, but in order to at least give a better understanding of the Russian market for spare-parts, and to a certain extent for accessories, it is important to have answers to the following questions: How can one estimate its size? Which are the challenges? How is it organised? Who are the players? These are the questions that we will try to give an answer to in this report. We do not pretend to give answers to all questions, but the aim is to give a better view on the Russian automotive aftermarket, a market that is often forgotten or neglected. You will see below that there are substantial amounts of cars and substantial volumes in money terms to consider. In this study, we have considered the aftermarket as the market of spare parts for vehicles driving on the Russian roads. It shall be kept in mind that there are several types of market segments within the aftermarket; Locally produced cars by local OEMS Locally produced cars by international OEMs Imported cars with guarantee Imported cars where the guarantee has elapsed Locally produced trucks by local OEMs Locally produced trucks by international OEMs Imported trucks Locally produced buses Imported buses Traditionally the Russian, or Soviet, automotive industry was to a very big extent self-sufficient for component supplies, as the OEM’s also had their own component production. Over the years, after the fall of the Soviet Union, this has changed. A Russian-made car is not 100% Russian today, as a great number of components are imported. On the other hand we see a certain return to selfsupplies of components of the Russian OEMs. Today the situation has changed as there is a great number of foreign OEMs producing or assembling cars in Russia. The Russian government is trying to keep as much of the production of cars in the country, and therefore there are demands and agreements regarding the need of localise production of components in Russia. This has an impact on the cost of production for the OEMs in Russia, as they have to prove that they have a certain amount of components manufactured in Russia. For that reason the foreign OEMs are struggling to invite their normal suppliers to also start production in Russia. This has been successful when looking at larger suppliers, who have had the means to start a plant in Russia. Another reason for this procedure is the fact that it has turned out to be extremely difficult to find Russian suppliers living up to the quality standards that foreign OEMs have. Putting this information into perspective, there are not only opportunities to become an OEM supplier, but also to be able to get into the Russian aftermarket, as the volumes increase when looking at cars needing spare-parts in the future. This means that the Russian market is not only OEM business, but also a comparatively big market for spare-parts. 5 Background to the Russian automotive market The Russian car market has changed very quickly over the last 25 years. At the collapse of the Soviet Union there were five important local OEMs for passenger and off-road vehicles in Russia; AvtoVAZ in Togliatti (with the Lada cars), GAZ in Nizhnij Novgorod (Gorkij at that time) (mainly known for the Volga and Chaika cars), UAZ in Ulyanovsk (mostly known for its military and police jeeps), AZLK in Moscow (Producing the Moskvitch) and ZAZ in Zaporozhe in today’s Ukraine (the small cars Zaporozhets – copies of NSU Prinz). You can also add ZiL in Moscow producing the famous prestige cars for the president etc. In addition to these OEMs there were also a number of truck producers; UralAZ (very heavy trucks), GAZ (with lighter trucks), KAMAZ (being the Volvo or Scania of Russia) and ZiL with light trucks. In Ukraine KrAZ also produced very heavy trucks and MAZ was present in Belarus. All these factories are still working, but on a lower scale, maybe with the exception of AvtoVAZ, being the proud and glory of the Russian automotive industry today. During the Soviet years hardly any foreign makes were sold. Today’s situation is more complex, and the big local players are not the big players any more. AvtoVAZ, majority owned by Renault and Nissan, is the exception, and the biggest one with a capacity of more than 1 million cars per year, but today producing around 500-600 000 (latest 2014 forecast <500 000). GAZ has left the passenger car scene and is concentrating on LCVs, trucks and buses. Since the beginning of the 1990’s the situation has changed drastically, and for those that had money a lot of cars have been imported. Initially private persons imported used cars and the ones being able to afford it, imported exclusive new cars. Over the years up till now the situation has become more “normal”, in the sense that Mr. Ivanov can afford buying his own car more easily and within his own economic frames. This has been followed up by the larger international OEMs. They have during the last decade started up production of cars in Russia for the Russian market. At the same time AvtoVAZ has, with some lacking behind, modernised its model range, and they are still by far the largest OEM in Russia. They meet great competition, mainly in the field of small and medium sized cars, where Renault, Peugeot/Citroën/Mitsubishi, Volkswagen, Kia, GM, BMW, Nissan, Toyota, Mazda and Suzuki are becoming more present, and we shall not forget the Chinese OEMs. All these OEMs have their production/assembly in Russia. Renault and Nissan are producing together with AvtoVAZ to a certain extent, as these two companies are co-owners to AvtoVAZ together with the Russian state. The volumes sold are at this moment decreasing over all, but the Lada cars still have a market share of 16%, which is going to be increased to 20% as per the new Swedish President Bo Andersson. 6 Current market situation Profitability of the automotive market In general terms it is well known that car dealers do not earn that much money on pure car sales. In Russia there is an estimation that looks as follows; Sales of new cars Repair and service Sales of spare-parts 5-10 percent profit 20 percent profit (of which the profit of sales of oils and other technical fluids can be up to 300 percent) 70 percent profit The Russian market for car service There are different ways of servicing your car depending on the age of the car. The newer the car – the more often it is serviced at a certified brand garage, especially if the guarantee is still valid. When the car is getting older it is more often the uncertified/unofficial garages that take over both service and repairs. In addition to this there are local even more unofficial garages and of course do-ityourself (DIY) persons. The estimates of how the market is shared between the different types of service and repair are unofficially as follows: White, official, certified repairs and service with original spare parts Grey market repairs by uncertified garages with same quality or pirate spare-parts Black market and DIY – often with fake or “same quality” spare-parts 30 percent 35 percent 25 percent Russian car dealers think that the market is shared equally between the “white” and the “grey” market, if you do not consider the DIY etc. part. In this context it is important to underline that the DIY part is to a great extent related to the cars produced within Russia, as they traditionally have been much simpler in their construction, and thus easier to maintain on a personal basis. Taking these figures into consideration you can say that the largest targeted market for spare-parts is the service stations, especially the brand loyal stations. On the other hand a study made by “TD Luzar” is a little bit contradictory to this as it shows that there is a difference in the purchasing pattern depending on the origin of the cars. This study shows that for domestic brands the sales in retail shops amounts to some 84%, internet sales 6% and service stations 10%. For foreign brands the figures are: retail shops 34%, service stations 6% and internet sales 60%. Is there any conclusion to draw from this? The obvious one is that the Russian brands have more DIY repairs because of simpler constructions, older cars and more cost sensitive owners, whilst the foreign brands are more complicated to serve and to repair. It is not possible to draw any conclusions on how much of the internet sales are private customers and how much emanates from service stations. 7 Russian car sales and production statistics In order to give an impression of the market in figures, you will below find statistics and graphs showing the development of the Russian automotive market in respect of production and sales. We have included passenger cars, trucks and buses to give the whole spectrum of the market and to get an impression of volumes and opportunities. It is interesting and important to study the changes in shares of domestic brands and foreign brands (both imported and locally produced). Sales of passenger cars in Russia 2001 – 2013 ‘000 Figure 1 – Development of different types of sales of passenger cars. Production in Russia increasing but Russian brands decreasing Production of passenger cars in Russia 2000 – 2013 ‘000 Figure 2 – Foreign Brands produce the highest volumes in Russia today 8 We have above looked at the passenger car situation, where the share of foreign brands increase both on the production a3-8. In these figures it is clearly shown the development that has taken place since 2000. It is also evident that the imported trucks and buses are diminishing (contrary to the passenger car situation), whilst the share of locally produced foreign brands increases. Sales of trucks in Russia 2001 – 2013 ‘000 Figure 3 – Truck sales show the same pattern as passenger cars Production of trucks in Russia 2000 – 2013 ‘000 Figure 4 – Localised truck production of foreign brands goes slower than for passenger cars 9 Sales of buses in Russia 2001 – 2013 ‘000 Figure 5 – The same development is seen also in bus sales Production of buses in Russia 2000 – 2013 ‘000 Figure 6 – Clear volume drop but foreign brands increasing their shares. 10 Car sales 2008 – 2013 (∑2013≈2,9 million) Figure 7 – the same statistics but in figures Figure 8 – detailed information for passenger cars and LCVs – including different scenarios 11 Prognosis of the volume of manufactured cars in Russia 2014 – 2020 ‘000 Figure 9 –one forecast of the production of vehicles in Russia 2014-2020 – all types of vehicles and domestic and foreign brands together 12 Size of the Russian aftermarket and its future development The size of an aftermarket, in any branch, is very difficult to evaluate. The reason for this is the fact that in the automotive industry there are no official statistics and the market is divided into several different areas, depending on e.g. the age of the car, the price situation, illegal production/import etc. There are some attempts of doing an evaluation of the size and the development of this market. In figure 10 you find the estimation from the Russian automotive statistics company Autostat. These figures show that there has been a steady increase in the aftermarket after the crisis years 2008-09. The reasons for this can be found in several reasons. The number of cars in general increases, although the figures are not totally reliable, and the statistics not really present. In Figure 11 you can have a quick view of the total number of registered vehicles and the estimation of the number in the years to come. We can have a qualified guess that the correct number is somewhere in between the registered and the estimated. If we make a calculation that there are around 40 million cars on their wheels in Russia, including all types of vehicles; passenger cars, trucks, buses and LCVs, we can assume that 5 per cent roughly are new cars without any need of spare parts. The rest of the cars will need spare-parts at one point. The annual sales of vehicles are in the region of 2.5-3 million per year. If we just have a look at the passenger cars, there is an estimation from Autostat (Figure 12) showing that the number of cars will increase to 47 million in 2018. This projection also shows the impact the foreign brands will have on the Russian market. The previsions show that the sales of LADA cars will decrease its share of the total car park in Russia from 35 per cent to 28.5 percent. If we look from a supplier’s point of view, this means that the number of foreign cars will increase on the Russian market, and this also means that the number of imported (or locally manufactured) spare parts for the aftermarket will increase over all. As can be seen in Figure 12 the part of LADA cars and other Russian brands is considered to be rather stable, and the increase is only for the foreign brands. On the other hand it is very probable that the part of components in the Russian brands that are of foreign origin increases, which means that there will always be a demand for the components manufactured by foreign suppliers, both outside of Russia or localised within Russia. In figure 13 it is possible to see how the Russian aftermarket is distributed in respect of different types of components. By far the two largest sections are tyres and suspension components, which is not so difficult to understand, due to the standard of Russian roads. The estimation of the volumes of the market is, in 2014, as can be seen in the figure9, USD 25 147M, which shows that there is a great potential for spare-parts suppliers on the Russian aftermarket. As the forecasts are not facts, you will find below some relevant and additional information in Figures 13-17, taking into consideration different views and previsions. In Figures 16 and 17 you are also able to have some ideas about the development depending on the sanctions development, which is a comparatively recent addition the situation to consider. 13 Volume of aftermarket in Russia, and its development Figure 10 – Russian aftermarket figures Vehicles in use 2013 ≈46,6M Figure 11 – Registered vehicles and an estimation of vehicles in use in Russia in 2013. 14 Passenger Cars – in 2014 ≈41,1M Figure 12 – Estimation of the Russian passenger car fleet until 2018 by Autostat Structure of the Aftermarket in 2013 Figure 13 – Russian aftermarket – divided into different types of spare-parts 15 Growth of the car fleet to 2020, million Figure 14 – Forecast of the Russian car fleet by Avtotor, including age of fleet in different years Import to Russia of cars, components and spare-parts Figure 15 – the yellow figures show the value of imports to Russia in 2012 of spare-parts – giving an indication of the size of the aftermarket, despite the comparatively old figures 16 Figure 16 – Sales estimation in the Russian market taking different scenarios into consideration Figure 17 – Forecast of the sales development in the Russian market, taking different scenarios and economic development into consideration 17 In Figure 18 it can be seen that the evaluations for the future in respect of components, both for direct OEM supplies and for spare-part sales have been increasing drastically during the last years, and the forecasts are that it will increase even more in the years to come. In this respect it can also be seen that this estimation indicates an increase in the share of spare-parts compared to the share of OEM components. Development of the auto component market Figure 18 – Auto component market divided into both OEM component supplies and spare-part supplies – value and yearly change One opportunity in the Russian market is the localising of production of components/spare-parts in Russia, and today there are a number of companies present with production and Figure 19 shows both the names of the suppliers and where they are located. The question that will occur at some point is the localisation of production, which is most important if you are a supplier to the OEM conveyors. It is in this respect interesting to look at the top 10 component suppliers in the world (see figure 20), where you can see that 8 of the 10 are actually producing in Russia. This step might seem frightening, but once established the market might open rather quickly as the word spreads around very quickly. If the reader of this report is a supplier to, especially the foreign, OEMs in Russia, via the OEM’s purchasing headquarters not in Russia, it is of great interest to have a look at the question of localisation. The reason for this is twofold: Firstly it is of interest to the OEM in Russia in respect of agreements with the Russian government for the share of localised components, and secondly it is of interest for the after-market. With localised production the distribution will be much easier than importing from abroad. For setting up production in Russia there are several ways of doing this; 1) Greenfield investment; 2) Joint Venture with a local company (not recommended for several reasons); 3) Buying an existing local company; 4) licensed production. 18 Foreign component suppliers in Russia Figure 19 –which of the component/spare-parts suppliers are present with localised production and where are they located? Top 10 world leaders among auto component suppliers Figure 20 – Component suppliers’ view on Russia for production Russia also has one specific peculiarity, which to a certain extent is shown in Figures 21 and 22, but needs a special explanation. Foreign brands manufactured in Russia need to produce more than 350 000 cars/year in order to receive special conditions in respect of customs duties etc, and at the same time they are required to have a specific percentage of the components produced locally. These agreements are valid until 2018, and some researchers sees a threat that the number of foreign OEMs in Russia might decrease after they have ran out. This would mean that the number of 19 locally produced cars in Russia will decrease, and that imports would go up. It is difficult to say today if this is going to take place, but it might be important to keep it mind when considering an entry onto the Russian market – as an exporter or as a localised manufacturer. Figure 21 – Description of a scenario where imports to Russia can increase, due to close down of foreign OEMs Figure 22 – Description of the OEMs at risk to close down until 2020 – as per Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 20 Growth of the automotive market and aftermarket Figure 23 – The development of the Russian aftermarket, including sales of cars and need of spare-parts/components One conclusion about the Russian aftermarket for spare-parts is made by Evgeny Bednjakov, working for the Sogefi group, and having written an article in the journal “Upravlenie Avtobiznesom” (“How to manage car business”). He foresees an increase, both in the number of cars and, in particular, the aftermarket. This, he predicts, will be going on until 2018, after which year both markets will stagnate. If his prediction will be fulfilled, the aftermarket for cars on the Russian market will be close to EUR 9 000M in 2018, and then dropping to around EUR 7 500M. This is one idea, and it is shown in Figure 23. This means that the prospects of selling larger volumes on the market are big. The question that could be asked in connection with this Figures is of course the monetary figure, as it seems to be less than half of the forecasts that have been seen above. This is a problem that we have to live with as there is no reliable official statistics to lean on to. 21 Market structure and players Specifics on the Russian Market Original This is the case for most of the newer cars, i.e. for cars with still active guarantees. These cars are normally serviced and repaired at the brand’s own workshops, which means that they are maintaining the quality they are supposed to do in order to have the guarantee working as predicted. Same quality Normally these types of aftermarket products are coming from the original supplier, but under another brand. Here we have the question whether the original brand can accept this as being original spare parts or not. This is not a typical Russian problem, but a worldwide problem. Fake Fake components is a big problem on the Russian market, especially when looking at the domestic brands, as there are a huge number of fake components sold on the Russian mainly imported from China, but there are also a big number of local fake producers selling low price and low quality components. The sales of spare-parts on the aftermarket are restrained by the massive import of unoriginal and counterfeit products from abroad. Sales structure and regionalisation Federal players If we look at the Russian geography, you can say that the territory is vast, giving a big problem in covering the whole country. Therefore there are only a few federal players on the market, like Automag, AGA, Koreana, Auto49 and Bi-Bi. Automag (Автомаг) You can say that you find these companies everywhere, but if you look at it in detail you realise that they are mainly around Moscow and in the European part of the Russian Federation. They are organised in a net of franchising companies. AGA (АГА) Mainly concentrated in car chemistry details, car cosmetics and accessories. Koreana A specialised company, as can be understood from the name, working with the Korean car makers – Hyundai, Kia, SsangYong, Daewoo + Chevrolet. This is a really wide-spread chain as they have 200 outlets from Kaliningrad/St. Petersburg in the west to Sakhalin in the east. Most of the outlets, however, are places where you can pick up orders. Orders are placed over the internet with delivery times of up to 30 days. In northwest Russia they have real shops – 65 of them. 22 Avto49 and Bi-Bi These two companies are in fact in the same chain, with a greater number of shops in Moscow and Moscow region – 38 shops. 11 in St. Petersburg and 20 in the rest of the country. They concentrate on trade over the internet, and also on “budget” cars. Delivery time – 2-3 days. Regional chains In addition to these more or less federal chains you can find a number of regional chains, mainly in the Moscow region and the Volga region. Avtopasker In Moscow and a radius of 600 km. Around 40 shops Mostly domestic brands You can find anything needed In Moscow you can find a lot of stores with an enormous assortment. They are often co-localised with a work-shop or with a tyre shop. The largest of these are; Tekhkom A holding company with “internal” smaller groups. They also sell truck parts. Rus-Treyd 12 stores. No. 2 in Moscow. They also sell parts to motorcycles and bicycles. Avtokemp No 3 in Moscow. A holding company. All stores have the same pricing. They also sell family goods. 23 E-traders In addition to the store-oriented chains of spare-part sales there is nowadays a very well defined market working on the internet with the so-called e-trade. In this area we find both local companies, but also international companies having set up their organisation in the Russian Federation. As figures for this type of sales are difficult to find, we try to name some of the big players on the Russian market. It is important to mention also that most of these companies are not only selling to the end customer, but they also act as wholesalers to work-shops, local distributors etc. We will name some of the players on this market, without any order of size etc. For those of you interested in this market, we believe it being of importance to start working through one or several of these companies. Exist.ru This is a company specialising in spare-parts to foreign brands. Everything is ordered via internet, and the delivery can be done in three different ways: Pick up at an “Exist.ru” office Courier service Other transport (if there is no office or if it is impossible with courier service (not unusual)) It is important to notice that that “Exist.ru” has some 350 offices (not stores) in the whole of the Russian Federation. They say themselves that they are present from St. Petersburg to Vladivostok. In their portfolio they sell 26 million different components from 1 200 leading suppliers. Of these they state that more than 300 are from EU, from UAE, from Japan and from Belarus. They do not only supply traditional components but also accessories and special items. Most of the parts are for European, Japanese and Korean cars. When looking at the web-site you find the on-line catalogue for original spareparts. At the same time it is possible to look at components from alternative suppliers and also to make comparisons on-line. “Exist.ru” also acts as wholesalers. AD Russia (AutoDistribution Russia) This is the Russian company of “AutoDistribution International” in Belgium. In this group 7 independent companies are included; AD Avanta – distributor in southern Urals AD Berg – one of the biggest distributors in Russia of spare-parts, oils and workshop equipment. 14 subsidiaries with their own warehouses and 13 trade representatives from Moscow to Vladivostok. More than 8 000 000 items in their catalogue. AD Koleso Fortuny – one of the leading distributors in north-west Russia. AD Megaros – specialised in spare-parts for passenger cars. AD Mikado – concentrating in wholesale distribution of high quality spare-parts for the most known brands in passenger cars, trucks and LCVs. AD Moskvorechie – their main aim is to act as a wholesaler for spare-parts for European, Korean and Japanese cars. AD Smartek – a trading and stock-holding company within the group. 24 AD Russia is present in 32 regions and in 37 larger cities. Rossko («Росско») This is a Russian distributor of spare-parts. It belongs to GroupAuto International, which in its turn has created Group Auto Russia – and association of independent distributors in Russia. They are representing around 70 suppliers to a clientele of around 7 000. In total they represent 70 000 components. The clientele consists of independent retailers, stores and service stations all over Russia. (See map below). Shate-M Plus («Шате-М Плюс») This company is a little bit different to compared with the others as it is based in Belarus, where they have become one of the stronger players in the market. They are now building up a distribution net also in Russia. Their hubs are in Podolsk outside of Moscow and in Ekaterinburg in western Siberia/Urals. At the same time the Minsk hub is also important for Russia, as Russia and Belarus are in the same customs zone. Shate-M Plus is working in all fields of spare-parts distribution – wholesale, retail and in between, but the focus lies on wholesale. The spare-parts in their portfolio are mainly for so called western cars – European, American, Japanese and Korean. But they also distribute to a certain extent spareparts for the Russian-made cars. Today they co-operate with some 150 different supplier brands of well-known origin. 25 The distributors mentioned above are mainly working with passenger cars, with some exceptions. The market for truck spare-parts is to a certain extent separate from the one for passenger cars, but maybe it is better to call it the market for commercial vehicles as LCVs also are included, as will be seen below. Truck Motors («ТракМоторс») This company specialises in spare-parts for trucks, trailers and buses. They have 32 000 parts in stock, for all of the foreign brands present in Russia. Over the years they have established co-operation with more than 85 well-known suppliers to the market for heavy vehicles. The number of clients is around 1 300. In figure below you can see the hubs and the distribution network. GOK («ГОК») A Truck part distributor, working only on an e-trade basis. They have a large number of parts in stock. Located outside Moscow Planeta Zhelezjaka («Планета Железяка») They are concentrating on truck parts, but also have a lot of spare parts for the passenger cars. For trucks mainly domestic and Chinese makes, but for passenger cars also for foreign brands. These are only a few examples, but there are a great number of other separate distributors specialising in the truck business, mainly situated in Moscow but with well established distribution networks to the regions. Most of the companies work as e-trade companies. You can name some of them: Viman, Inodetal.ru, Avto+/Kerax, mehanika.ru, mvs-auto.ru, at-part.ru, univex.ru, etc. etc. It is important to note that this is only a collection of examples, as there are many more on the market. 26 Marketing channels Journals There are a great number of specialised newspapers, both for subscription and pure advertising journals. These journals are only in Russian, but they are well spread in the market. You find them in every specialised shop for spare-parts and they are in most of the cases also presented in one form or another at exhibitions. Examples in this category are: “Gruzovoj Press” – www.gpmag.ru – specialising in trucks, buses and LCVs; “Kuzov” – www.kuzov-media.ru – a magazine for workshop equipment and for repairs of car bodies; “Avtozapchasti i tseny” – www.autozap.biz – a free magazine only financed by advertising. There are also some “modern” issues, where you can subscribe on the magazines on the internet or download apps in order to follow them in an easy way on your smartphone. Examples of this are “Spetstekhnika i kommercheskij Transport” , and “Avtokomponenty”, both issued by the same company - http://maks-m.com/EN/ The first one covers commercial equipment and the second one is a journal concentrating on auto components, with articles on different topics, but also with a number of advertising. Exhibitions Exhibitions in Russia are very common, and they are not concentrated to Moscow, but can be found in many places around the year. In addition to the large exhibition malls in Moscow and St. Petersburg, there are a number of regional exhibitions as in Novosibirsk, Togliatti and Chelyabinsk. It is absolutely possible to expose products at these exhibitions, but the opinion of the author is that they are not very efficient, as the public visiting them is mainly local, and, depending on the exhibition, very limited both in space and participants. All this is noticed despite heavy marketing for the event. There are especially two well-known exhibitions in Russia – Automechanika in Moscow with a very international panel of participants and CTT also in Moscow, dedicated to heavy vehicles, construction equipment etc. Both of these exhibitions have an international recognition. Distribution The distribution of spare parts on the Russian market is done in the following way as per the information from the Russian statistics company “Autostat”: There is a central stock in Moscow at the distributor – this is to large extent due to the country’s hard centralised system, finding its way also into the distribution of spare parts. 5-10 % of the distributed parts go this way; 50-70 % of all is made by specialised wholesale companies distributing either on a federal level or on a regional level; The rest of the distributed parts are taken care of by other players in the market, or by middlemen. 27 Conclusions Is it possible to give a definitive answer how to proceed to engage in the Russian automotive aftermarket? The answer that we would like to forward be that it is absolutely worthwhile if: You are supplying to cars already sold on the Russian market You can sell your spare-parts outside of the original brand sales network – maybe under another brand name The brand distributors are unevenly spread over the country You are supplying to trucks and buses – especially to heavy trucks and long-haul buses – they cover long distances on not so good roads (not to exaggerate) You are not only into spare-parts but also into accessories – there is a big demand for pimping your car – especially if it is a little bit older and of lower price levels Are there any advises to give? Having read the text above it seems rather obvious that the best way of going forward is to get into contact with the larger distributors and retail chains. That is the best way to get your components spread onto the market. There seems not to be any demand for exclusivity from these companies, so in principle it should be possible to work with all of them. In order to understand why to invest in the Russian market you should consider the questions below (source: PwC). Localisation of production of components in Russia, key questions worrying global suppliers; Market volumes Long-term politics/strategy of the state Development of Russia’s economy and the dynamics of the Rate of exchange Logistics (infrastructure) Availability and costs of raw materials Availability and efficiency of personnel Cost of production machinery (equipment) Additional costs and time for testing and validation All these questions are very relevant, but they are possible to overcome and to manage. They might be more adequate for production set-up, but some of them are also very actual if you are looking into starting business in Russia by way of exports. Of course some of them are more risky than others, but normally the risk-taking in Russia is profitable in the long run, only the first step is taken. It is also important to underline that it is a big difference between setting up production and “only” selling. The advice that can be given to suppliers hesitating about the Russian market is the following: “Do not underestimate the Russian market – with the right entry strategy and the right attitude – the market will be conquered” Sköndal 2014-09-30 Per-Olof Egli ISEA – Industry Senior Advisors 28