Martin Scherler ¹, Christian Hauck ¹, Nadine Salzmann ¹

Martin Scherler ¹, Christian Hauck ¹, Nadine Salzmann ¹

ribourg
Projection of permafrost and snow cover evolution under climate change scenarios
GEOSCIENCES
ALPINE CRYOSPHERE
GEOMORPHOLOGY
AND
Martin Scherler ¹, Christian Hauck ¹, Nadine Salzmann ¹
¹ Alpine Cryosphere and Geomorphology (ACAG), Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland (martin.scherler@unifr.ch)
HC
2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
10
15
-100
humidity %
-50
0
50
100
-15
wind speed m/s
smhi
mpi
metno
hc
eth
dmi
JJA
MAM
METNO
-15
DMI
-20
0
MPI
depth [m]
-10
-15
ETH
-20
0
JJA
SMHI
2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Figure 2:
Thaw layer depth projections according to 6 different RCM runs for the period from 1991 to
2050/2098 for Schilthorn (left) and Murtèl Corvatsch (right).
-15
-20
HC
2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
10
15
-100
MAM
smhi
mpi
metno
hc
eth
dmi
MAM
SON
SON
SON
SON
0
20
40
-6
incoming shortwave radiation W/m²
MAM
-2
0
2
4
-40
6
-20
0
20
40
smhi
mpi
metno
hc
eth
dmi
JJA
MAM
smhi
mpi
metno
hc
eth
dmi
JJA
MAM
DJF
SON
SON
SON
SON
100
-10
-5
0
5
10
-100
-50
0
50
0
2
4
6
smhi
mpi
metno
hc
eth
dmi
MAM
DJF
50
-2
JJA
DJF
0
-4
precipitation mm
DJF
-50
100
smhi
mpi
metno
hc
eth
dmi
-6
incoming shortwave radiation W/m²
precipitation mm
smhi
mpi
metno
hc
eth
dmi
JJA
-4
50
MAM
DJF
-20
0
JJA
DJF
-40
-50
wind speed m/s
JJA
100
-10
-5
0
5
Conclusions
10
Although the predicted increase in air temperature and the decrease in snow
cover duration are of the same magnitude for both sites, permafrost conditions
at Murtèl are more stable. This is most probably due to the massive ice core in
the rock glacier which absorbs a large amount of energy during melting.
smhi: 1700.0 m a.s.l.; mpi: 1898.8 m a.s.l.; metno: 2227.4 m a.s.l.; hc: 425.0 m a.s.l.; eth: 1214.5 m a.s.l.; dmi: 1214.1 m a.s.l.
measured: 2700 m a.s.l.
DMI
-5
-10
-15
METNO
A
J
J
J
J
M
M
A
A
M
M
F
F
J
J
D
D
N
N
O
O
S
S
2010
2020
2030
-10
MPI
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
ETH
A
-5
-15
A
2000
-15
-20
J
J
J
M
M
A
A
M
M
F
F
J
J
D
D
N
N
O
O
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2000
2090
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
S
M
M
M
M
A
A
A
A
M
M
M
M
F
F
F
F
J
J
J
J
D
D
D
D
N
N
N
N
O
O
O
O
S
S
S
2060
2070
2080
2090
HC
M
F
J
D
N
O
S
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2010
2020
2030
2060
2070
2080
2090
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
SMHI
A
A
2000
2000
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
J
J
J
J
M
M
M
A
A
A
M
M
M
F
F
F
J
J
J
D
D
D
N
N
N
O
O
O
S
S
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2070
2080
2090
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Murtèl
350
300
250
200
DMI
ETH
HC
METNO
MPI
SMHI
average
linear
150
100
50
0
2090
A
J
2010
2060
Schilthorn
400
SMHI
HC
A
S
J
2000
2050
3.5
J
2050
2040
4
J
2040
2030
A
J
2030
2020
MPI
J
2020
2010
400
A
J
2010
2000
ETH
MPI
J
M
2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
J
S
A
J
SMHI
A
J
A
-10
METNO
A
J
2000
-5
DMI
METNO
J
-10
5
DJF
-20
0
-5
0
DJF
-20
0
-5
-5
humidity %
smhi
mpi
metno
hc
eth
dmi
0
depth [m]
depth [m]
0
-10
-10
2091
5
2081
0
2071
-5
2061
-10
2051
-15
2041
SON
2031
SON
2021
SON
2011
SON
2001
DJF
1991
DJF
Duration of snow pack > 10 cm [days]
DJF
2091
DJF
Figure 1:
Seasonal differences between RCM’s and observations at Schilthorn and Murtèl which were used to downscale
the regional climate model output according to the delta method.
Table 1
RCM's and GCM's used by the 6 institutes of ENSEMBLES
project which were chosen for the study
-5
MAM
2081
MAM
JJA
2071
JJA
smhi
mpi
metno
hc
eth
dmi
2061
MAM
smhi
mpi
metno
hc
eth
dmi
2051
MAM
JJA
The projected snow cover (> 10cm) at the two sites shows a general decrease
in duration of about 50 to 80 days per year during the 21st century (Figure 4).
The onset of the snow cover is delayed and the time that the sites become
snow-free is earlier than observed in the recent years (Figure 3).
For the Schilthorn site the scenarios of DMI, ETH and HC show that the active
layer varies between 5m and 12m until around 2020 (Figure 2). After that
period, the thaw layer does not freeze up anymore and a talik develops. The
scenarios of MPI and SMHI show no stable permafrost condition after 1998.
The METNO scenario predicts stable permafrost until 2050. For the Murtèl site
the scenarios DMI, ETH, SMHI show an increase of active layer depth from
2.5m to around 7m in 2090. The METNO scenario shows no change until
2050. HC and MPI predict the development of a talik at the Murtèl site in the
late 21st century.
incoming longwave radiation W/m²
2041
JJA
smhi
mpi
metno
hc
eth
dmi
smhi: 2239.0 m a.s.l.; mpi: 2247.4 m a.s.l.; metno: 2194.8 m a.s.l.; hc: 1365.0 m a.s.l.; eth: 2245.0 m a.s.l.; dmi: 1772.3 m a.s.l.
measured: 2910 m a.s.l.
depth [m]
ETH
smhi
mpi
metno
hc
eth
dmi
-100
depth [m]
DMI
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
air temperature (altitude corrected) °C
incoming longwave radiation W/m²
2031
HIRHAM
CLM
HadRM3Q0
HIRHAM
REMO
RCA
depth [m]
ARPEGE
HadCM3Q0
HadCM3Q0
BCM
ECHAM5-r3
HadCM3Q3
depth [m]
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
Danish Meteorological Institute
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
RCM
depth [m]
depth [m]
depth [m]
depth [m]
DMI
ETH
HC
METNO
MPI
SMHI
GCM
depth [m]
Institute
air temperature (altitude corrected) °C
2021
The sites of this study are Schilthorn in the Bernese Oberland
and Murtèl in the Engadin. The sites were chosen because of
their different morphologies and substrates, i.e. a rock slope
with a substantial fine-grained surficial cover at Schilthorn and
a bouldery surface with large blocks at rock glacier Murtèl.
for the period from june 1997 to february 2008
2011
Site
for the period from september 1999 to august 2008
Results
2001
The soil model is driven by meteorological parameters (air temperature, relative
humidity, wind speed, incoming short-wave radiation, incoming long-wave radiation, and precipitation). A complete energy balance is calculated for the snow or
soil surface, yielding a surface temperature representing the upper thermal
boundary condition of the soil profile. A constant geothermal heat flux determines the lower thermal boundary. The model includes the accumulation and melt
of a seasonal snow cover, as well as freezing and thawing of the soil.
The model has been driven by daily mean values of meteorological parameters
taken from the output data of 6 different RCM runs (ENSEMBLES Project) for
the time period of 1991 to 2050/2098. The seasonal bias in relation to the
measured climate data has been determined on the basis of an observation
period from 1999 to 2008 for Schilthorn and from 1997 to 2008 for Murtèl (Figure
1). The relative deviations have been corrected in the soil model input for air
temperature, incoming short-wave radiation, incoming long-wave radiation, wind
speed and precipitation.
Murtèl
1991
In this study a one dimensional coupled heat and mass transfer model of the soil snow atmosphere boundary layer (COUP
Model) is used to simulate the evolution of two high alpine permafrost sites in Switzerland under the influence of climate
change as projected by regional climate models (RCM’s).
Schilthorn
Duration of snow pack > 10 cm [days]
Model
Snow height [m]
Introduction
2060
2070
2080
2090
S
Figure 4:
Projected duration of snow cover (>10cm) for Schilthorn and Murtèl.
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
Figure 3:
Hovmöller diagrams of the projected snow cover according to the 6 chosen RCM runs (left side Schilthorn, right side Murtèl).
The x-axis shows years from 1991 to 2098, the y-axis shows days of year starting in September. The contour lines represent the
simulated snow height with the bold orange line indicating a height of 50cm.
References
ENSEMBLES Project. http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/
Jansson P-E, Karlberg L. 2001. Coupled heat and mass transfer model for soil-plant-atmosphere systems. Royal Institute of Technology, Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stockholm.