The 34th annual Kinder Houston area survey

Transcription

THE 34TH ANNUAL KINDER HOUSTON AREA SURVEY
Perspectives on a City in Transition
Dr. Stephen Klineberg
Kinder Houston Area Survey Luncheon
April 30, 2015
THE 34TH KINDER HOUSTON AREA SURVEY (2015)
Systematic interviews conducted
with representative samples of
Economic Outlooks
the residents from Harris, Fort
Bend and Montgomery counties,
Interethnic Relations
focused on four central topics:
County Differences
Social Agenda
2
POSITIVE RATINGS OF JOB OPPORTUNITIES IN THE
HOUSTON AREA (1982-2015)
100
Percent rating job opportunities as “excellent” or “good”
90
PERCENT GIVING POSITIVE RATINGS
80
71
69
68
70
58
60
50
58
60
48
43
42
35
40
41
30
36
20
25
10
11
0
82
85
88
91
94
97
00
03
06
09
12
YEAR OF SURVEY
3
Source: 1982-2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey
© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Economic Outlooks
15
THE OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES IN HARRIS
COUNTY (FEBRUARY FIGURES, 1982-2015)
OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
10.5
10.1
9.8
90
Negative ratings of job opportunities
9.5
80
70
8.6
8.5
8.4
7.8
60
7.3
7.5
6.8
50
6.8
6.6
6.5
40
6.7
30
5.5
5.7
20
5.1
4.5
4.7
4.0
10
4.3
4.3
3.5
0
82
85
88
91
94
97
00
03
06
09
12
15
YEAR OF SURVEY
4
Source: 1982-2015 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey, U.S. Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted.
Economic Outlooks
PERCENT GIVING NEGATIVE RATINGS
100
Official unemployment rates in Harris County
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM FACING PEOPLE IN THE
HOUSTON AREA TODAY (1982-2015)
Traffic
80
71
Economy
70
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
70
Crime
60
51
47
50
44
39
40
35
30
30
26
37
31
27
23
16
20
10
15
14
28
26
25
19
21
16
18
20
10
10
0
82
85
88
91
94
97
00
03
06
09
12
15
YEAR OF SURVEY
5
Economic Outlooks
ASSESSMENTS OF TRAFFIC IN THE HOUSTON AREA,
AND OF THREE POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS (2009-2015)
100
90
"Over the past three years, has traffic in the
Houston area generally gotten better, gotten
worse, or has it stayed about the same?"
"Which of these proposals would be the best
long-term solution to the traffic problems in
the Houston area?"
80
2009
70
60
2011
2013
2015
65
59
53
56
50
42 40
44 43
40
31 31
30
33 33
28
27 27
27 26
24
21
20
16 15
23
12
10
6
0
Worse
6
Same
Better
Highways
Urbanism
Transit
Economic Outlooks
ASSESSMENTS OF CRIME, AIR POLLUTION, AND THE
QUALITY OF LIVING CONDITIONS IN THE HOUSTON
AREA (2005-2015)
“Very worried” that you
or a member of your
family will become the
victim of a crime.
“Very concerned”
about the effects of
air pollution on your
family’s health.
Living conditions in the
Houston area have been
“getting better.”
50%
42%
33%
31%
05
7
07
09
11
13
36%
29%
15
05
07
09
11
13
15
38%
34%
37%
05
07
09
11
13
15
Economic Outlooks
IMPORTANCE OF POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION (2015)
100
"For a person to be successful in today's world, is it necessary to get an education beyond high
school, or are there many ways to succeed with no more than a high school education?"
90
80
70
76
75
68
66
60
53
50
44
40
32
32
30
23
23
20
10
0
Total sample
Anglos
Blacks
Hispanics
Asians
An education beyond high school is necessary
There are many ways to succeed with no more than high school
8
Source: 2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey
Economic Outlooks
THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATIONS OF HARRIS
COUNTY (1960-2010)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
POPULATION IN MILLIONS
4
7.7%
Asians
6.7%
4.1%
3
2.1%
15.5%
2
0.8%
9.9%
0.3%
1
6.0% Asians
20.1%
19.8%
Latinos
Blacks
Asians
19.7%
Latinos
Blacks
Asians
22.7%
Latinos
Blacks
19.1%
Asians
Asians
Latinos
Latinos
32.9%
40.8%
Latinos
Blacks
Blacks
18.2%
18.4%
Blacks
Anglos
73.9%
0
10
1,243,258
Anglos
69.2%
1,741,912
Anglos
62.7%
2,409,547
Anglos
54.0%
2,818,199
Source: U.S. Census. Classifications based on Texas State Data Center Conventions.
Anglos
42.1%
3,400,578
33.0%
Anglos
4,092,459
HARRIS COUNTY TOTAL POPULATION
Anglo majority
Black majority
Latino majority
No majority
11
1980
Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC. Color represents demographic group being a
majority in that census tract.
Anglo majority
Black majority
Latino majority
No majority
12
1990
Anglo majority
Black majority
Latino majority
No majority
13
2000
Anglo majority
Black majority
Latino majority
No majority
14
2010
PERCENT OF THE POPULATION BY AGE GROUP AND
ETHNICITY IN HARRIS COUNTY (2013)
Non-Hispanic Whites
79
78
76
76
76
All Others
72
71
70
60
60
49
40
29
21
15
22
24
24
24
28
51
53
47
40
30
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009-2013 ACS 5-year estimates
ASSESSMENTS OF RACE AND ETHNIC RELATIONS IN
THE HOUSTON AREA, BY ETHNICITY (1992-2015)
Percent rating ethnic relations as “excellent” or “good”
59%
56%
60%
53%
48%
Anglos
46%
48%
Latinos
45%
49%
37%
35%
36%
38%
Blacks
35%
33%
27%
27%
21%
14%
10%
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
16
Source: 1992-2015 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey
ATTITUDES TOWARD IMMIGRANTS IN HARRIS COUNTY
(2009-2015)
Percent of respondents agreeing
90%
83%
72%
69%
54%
72%
71%
64%
60%
55%
52%
For: granting a path to
legal citizenship.
Admit the same
number or more
legal immigrants.
59%
47%
The new immigration
mostly strengthens
American culture.
0%
09
17
11
13
15 09
10
11
12
13
14
15 09
11
13
15
THE THREE LARGEST COUNTIES
IN THE METROPOLITAN REGION
Montgomery County
Area: 1,077 sq. mi.
Population: 485,225
The nine counties:
6.2 million
9,434 sq. mi.
Fort Bend County
Area: 885 sq. mi.
Population: 628,443
Source: ACS 2011-13 Three-Year Estimates. U.S. Census Bureau
COUNTY DIFFERENCES
Harris County
Area: 1,777 sq. mi.
Population: 4.26 m
ETHNICITY AND EDUCATION IN HOUSTON’S THREE
LARGEST COUNTIES (2013)
100%
100%
4
8
10
20
90%
90%
14
10
Adults 25 years
and older
22
80%
80%
70%
41
4
60%
60%
Asians/Others
50%
40%
Graduate or
professional degree
27
30
Blacks
28
Anglos
Some college,
Associate's degree
40%
70
30%
30%
24
25
20%
32
Less than high
school
10%
10%
21
12
14
0%
0%
Harris
Fort Bend
(N=4,255,830) (N=628,443)
19
High school
graduate
18
20%
36
Bachelor's degree
50%
Latinos
18
21
28
70%
24
21
19
Montgomery
(N=485,225)
Harris
Fort Bend Montgomery
(N=2,657,083) (N=395,806) (N=313,196)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2011-2013 ACS 3-year estimates
County Differences
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM FACING PEOPLE IN THREE
COUNTIES (2015)
Harris
Montgomery
Fort Bend
8.0
11.4
10.0
27.8
28.1
18.4
40.4
23.8
21.2
20.9
24.6
16.8
13.0
20.8
14.8
Traffic
20
Crime
Economy
All other concerns
DK/RF
County Differences
COUNTY DIFFERENCES IN BELIEFS ABOUT
IMMIGRATION AND ETHNIC DIVERSITY (2015)
90
Harris
Fort Bend
Montgomery
80
70
60
71
70
60
67
63
60
53
63
54
54
49
50
45
40
30
20
10
0
The increasing immigration into The increasing ethnic diversity Favor granting illegal immigrants Ratings of the relations among
this country mostly strengthens brought about by immigration is a in U.S. a path to legal citizenship. ethnic groups as either "good" or
American culture.
good thing.
"excellent."
21
County Differences
COUNTY DIFFERENCES IN THE PREFERENCE FOR
“WALKABLE URBANISM” (2015)
70
Harris
Fort Bend
Montgomery
60
54
50
40
49
49
45
39
40
43
45
43
38
42
38
30
20
10
0
Prefer area with mix of
Improving public transportation
developments, including homes, is the best solution to traffic
shops, and restaurants.
problems.
22
Percent who own a bicycle.
Percent wishing they could ride
a bicycle more often.
County Differences
COUNTY DIFFERENCES IN PARTY AFFILIATION (2015)
100%
90%
32
80%
41
53
70%
60%
23
18
50%
Republicans
Independent/Other/DK
40%
18
Democrats
30%
20%
45
41
29
10%
0%
Harris
23
Fort Bend
Montgomery
County Differences
COUNTY DIFFERENCES IN PERSPECTIVES ON PUBLIC
POLICY ISSUES (2015)
90
Harris
80
Fort Bend
Montgomery
75
70
66
62
60
56
50
50
45
47
40
40
37
28
30
31
30
20
10
0
Government is trying to do too
much that should be left to
individuals and businesses.
24
"Very concerned" about
Favor a law making it more difficult
environmental issues in general. for a woman to obtain an abortion.
Favor the death penalty for
persons convicted of murder.
County Differences
SOCIAL AGENDA
ANTI-ABORTION AND PRO-CHOICE IN HARRIS COUNTY
(1999-2015)
100%
63%
61%
59%
Opposed to “a law that
would make it more
difficult for a woman to
obtain an abortion.”
58%
Believe that “abortion is
morally wrong.”
0%
1999
26
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Social Agenda
SUPPORT FOR GAY RIGHTS (1991-2015)
70
Agree: "Marriages between homosexuals should be given the same
legal status as heterosexual marriages."
60
Favor: "Homosexuals being legally permitted to adopt children."
51
49
50
47
41
40
42
43
32
31
30
47
45
38
37
40
51
43
37
35
28
27
35
27
20
17
10
91
93
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
YEAR OF SURVEY
27
Social Agenda
SUPPORT FOR THE DEATH PENALTY (1993-2015)
80
75
66
70
66
60
67
58
61
58
62
57
60
56
50
40
34
41
39
30
37
32
20
30
28
Favor "the death penalty for persons convicted of murder."
The death penalty, and not life imprisonment, "should generally be
the penalty for persons convicted of first-degree murder."
10
0
93
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
YEAR OF SURVEY
28
Social Agenda
CENTRAL FINDINGS FROM THE 2015 SURVEY
Ratings of job opportunities have continued to
Economic Outlooks
improve, despite the recent slump in oil prices,
and traffic has become the predominant concern.
After a downturn in ratings of ethnic relations, area
residents this year are more optimistic about the
burgeoning diversity and more positive in their
views of immigrants.
Despite county contrasts in ethnicity, density,
County Differences
education and politics, there are only slight
differences in assessments of diversity and in the
preference for “walkable urbanism.”
Area residents are personally opposed to abortion
Social Agenda
but they support the right to choose, and they are
rethinking their views on same-sex marriage and
the death penalty.
kinder.rice.edu
kinder@rice.edu
713-348-4132
/InstituteForUrbanResearch
@RiceKinderInst

The 34th annual Kinder Houston area survey

Transcription

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