Petroleum Refining Overview

Transcription

Petroleum Refining Overview
Updated: August 11, 2016
Copyright © 2016 John Jechura (jjechura@mines.edu)
Topics
• Energy consumption & petroleum’s place
 Size of U.S. industry
 Major refiners
• Petroleum products
• Basic petroleum economics
 Trends for crude oil & gasoline prices
 When do refiners make money?
• Generalized Petroleum Refinery
2
Energy Markets Are Interconnected
https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/commodities/energy
4
World & U.S. Refining Capacity
“Asia-Pacific refining primed for capacity growth”, Oil & Gas Journal, pp
34-45, Dec. 1, 2014
EIA, Jan. 1, 2016 database, published June 2016
http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/refinerycapacity/
6
Number & Capacity of World & U.S. Refineries
“Asia-Pacific refining primed for capacity growth”, Oil & Gas Journal, pp 34-45,
Dec. 1, 2014
Source:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_cap1_dcu_nus_a.htm
7
Locations of U.S. Refineries
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=7170
8
Individual U.S. Refinery Sizes – 10 Largest & Selected 10 Small
9
World’s Largest Refineries
“Asia-Pacific refining primed for capacity growth”, Oil & Gas Journal, pp 34-45, Dec. 1, 2014
10
Recent changes to the slate of US refineries
• Motiva completed $10 billion JV expansion
in 2013
 Increased to 600,000 bpd capacity, now
largest in US
• Operating problems caused near
immediate shut down of new crude
distillation train
 Plan to export refined products
• Changes in operations
 Tesoro to shut down Carson, CA’s FCCU in
2017 & integrate into adjacent Wilmington
refinery
 Motiva may shut down Convent, LA FCC by
2016 – would shift focus to diesel
• Could build new crude unit, ROSE units, or
add coker
• Changes in ownership
 Marathon Petroleum purchased BP’s 460,000
bpd Texas City (Feb. 2013) – $589M total,
$1.4B inventory
 Par Refining purchased Tesoro’s 94,000 bpd
Hawaii refinery (Sept. 2013)
• Tesoro was going to convert to storage
terminal. Par will keep open.
 PBF Energy purchased two ExxonMobil
refineries
• Chalmette, LA, 189,00 bpd refinery (from
ExxonMobil / PdVSA, November 2015)
• Torrance, CA, 155,00 bpd refinery (June
2016)
 Tesoro buying Dakota Prairie Refining (June
2016)
 Par Pacific Holdings purchased Wyoming
Refining Co (July 2016)
11
New Grass-Roots Refineries in U.S.?
Year Built
First
Operated
Location
Original Owner
Original Capacity
Bbl/cd
Current Owner
2014 Capacity
Type
Bbl/cd
2014
2015
Dickinson, ND
Dakota Prairie
19,000
Dakota Prairie Refining
19,000
Simple
2014
2015
Galena Park, TX
Kinder Morgan
43,000
Kinder Morgan
43,000
Simple
2008
2008
Douglas, WY
Interline Resources
3,000
Antelope Refining
3,800
Simple
1998
1998
Atmore, AL
Goodway
4,100
Goodway
4,100
Simple
1993
1993
Valdez, AK
Petro Star
26,300
Petro Star
55,000
Simple
1991
1992
Ely, NV
Petro Source
7,000
Foreland
2,000
Simple
1986
1987
North Pole, AK
Petro Star
6,700
Petro Star
19,700
Simple
1985
1986
Prudhoe Bay, AK
ARCO
12,000
ConocoPhillips
15,000
Simple
1981
1982
Thomas, OK
OK Refining
10,700
Ventura
12,000
Simple
1979
1980
Wilmington, CA
Huntway
5,400
Valero
6,300
Simple
1978
1979
Vicksburg, MS
Ergon
10,000
Ergon
23,000
Simple
1978
1979
North Slope, AK
ARCO
13,000
BP Exp AK
10,500
Simple
1978
1978
North Pole, AK
Earth Resources
22,600
Flint Hills
126,535
Simple
1977
1978
Lake Charles, LA
Calcasieu
6,500
Calcasieu
78,000
Simple
1976
1977
Garyville, LA
Marathon
200,000
Marathon
522,000
Complex
1976
1977
Krotz Springs, LA
Gold King
5,000
Alon
80,000
Complex
1975
1975
Corpus Christi, TX
Saber
15,000
Valero
200,000
Complex
http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=29&t=6, updated January 26, 2016
12
New Grass-Roots Refineries in U.S.?
• Simple refineries near oil production
 Kinder Morgan, Galena Park, TX – 50,000
bpd (condensate splitter)
 Dakota Prairie Refinery – 20,000 bpd
Bakken crude topping unit with diesel
hydrotreating
 MHA Clean Fuels Refinery, 15,000 bpd
refinery on the Fort Berthold Indian
Reservation near Makoti, ND
• Ground broken May 2013. Phase I
construction underway as of May 2015.
 Plans near Bakken production
• Complex refineries – 2 planned in mid
2000s no longer active projects
 Hyperion Energy Center, $10 billion,
400,000 bpd refinery near Union County,
SD
• Would have included Petcoke IGCC for power
& hydrogen
• Air permit applications expired March 2013 &
released options on land May 2013
 Arizona Clean Fuels Yuma, LLC, 150,000
bpd refinery near Yuma, AZ
• No press releases since March 2009
• Quantum Energy & Native Son Holdings
planning 40,000 bpd refinery near Berthold,
ND
• Meridian Energy Group planning 55,000 bpd
refinery near Belfield, ND – expected 2018
startup – may operate on midstream tolling
concept
13
Nelson’s Complexity Factor
• EDC: Equivalent Distillation Capacity
 Measure of downstream conversion capacity to the initial distillation
 Developed by Nelson (1960) to quantify relative costs of refining processes
• Reflects complexity of ISBL, no OSBL considerations
• Refineries to process heavy sour crudes typically have higher complexity factors
Ref: http://www.ril.com/downloads/pdf/business_petroleum_refiningmktg_lc_ncf.pdf
14
Nelson’s Complexity Factor
15
Petroleum Products
 There are specifications for
over 2,000 individual refinery
products
 Intermediate feedstocks can
be routed to various units to
produce different blend stocks
• Highly dependent on
economics specific to that
refinery & contractual
limitations
Ref: Unknown origin. Possibly Socony-Vacuum Oil Company, Inc. (1943)
17
U.S. Refinery & Blender Net Production
1.4 ratio of
gasoline &
naphtha to
middle distillates
EIA, refinery yield – updated May 17, 2016
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_pct_dc_nus_pct_m.htm
18
Refinery Economics
• When do refiners make money?
 High crude oil prices?
 Low crude oil prices?
• It depends!
 Difference between the sale price of the products & purchase price of the crude oil
 Operating costs cut into this spread
• Typical prices
 What is the price of crude oil?
• Depends on location, quality, …
 What are the product prices?
20
Product Economics — Crack Spread
• Estimates the value added by refining as an industry
• 4 standard spreads
 5-3-2
• 5 bbl crude  3 bbls gasoline + 2 bbls heating oil/diesel
 3-2-1
 2-1-1
 6-3-2-1
• 6 bbl crude  3 bbls gasoline + 2 bbls heating oil/diesel + 1 bbl residual fuel oil
• Rule of thumb for profitable operating environment
 Long held view – greater than $4 per bbl as strongly profitable
 Current view – should be greater than $9 per bbl to be profitable
21
Crack Spread Calculation
• Example — Bloomberg, 8/4/2016
 Prices
• WTI Cushing Spot
$41.78 per bbl
• Brent
$44.29 per bbl
• RBOB Gasoline
$1.3659 per gal
• Heating Oil
$1.3199 per gal
 5-3-2 Spreads
• WTI:
42   3  1.3659  2  1.3199 
 41.78  $14.82 per bbl
5
• Brent:
42   3  1.3659  2  1.3199 
 44.29  $12.30 per bbl
5
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
22
Prices Are Crude Specific
Ref: Statistics, Oil & Gas Journal, August 1, 2016
23
Prices Are Crude Specific
EIA published monthly production data – updated August 4, 2016
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_m.htm
http://tonto.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=IMX2810004&f=M
24
Historical Crude Prices & Crack Spreads
Updated August 4, 2016
Source: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm
25
Historical Crude Prices & Crack Spreads
Source: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm
26
Gasoline & Diesel Retail vs. Commodity Prices
Retail Price
Gasoline Retail Cost Contributions
Per Gallon
Per Barrel
$2.37
$99.54
Taxes
Distribution & Marketing
Refining
Crude Oil
19%
16%
19%
46%
Refinery Costs / Commodity Price
Retail Price
$0.45
$0.38
$0.45
$1.09
$18.91
$15.93
$18.91
$45.79
$1.54
$64.70
Diesel Retail Cost Contributions
Per Gallon
Per Barrel
$2.42
$101.64
Taxes
Distribution & Marketing
Refining
Crude Oil
21%
17%
17%
45%
Refinery Costs / Commodity Price
$0.51
$0.41
$0.41
$1.09
$21.34
$17.28
$17.28
$45.74
$1.50
$63.02
Source: http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/
27
How do energy prices compare?
28
Early History
• First oil well of "Colonel" Edwin L. Drake
 August 1859, Oil Creek in northwestern Pennsylvania
 First refineries built up around Pennsylvania oil wells. Batch
distillation to recover kerosene.
• Kerosene viewed as a superior replacement to whale oil for lamp oil.
• Standard Oil Trust
 John D. Rockefeller acquired petroleum
interests during the late 1800s.
Organized as the Standard Oil Trust
in 1882.
 U.S. Supreme Court dissolved in 1911.
34 companies spun off.
• Change in product demand
 In 1911, nation's kerosene output
eclipsed for the 1st time by a discarded
byproduct - gasoline
30
Implementation of Technologies
Year
1862
Process name
Atmospheric distillation
1870
Vacuum distillation
1913
1916
1930
1932
1932
1933
1935
1935
1937
1939
1940
1940
1942
1950
1952
1954
1956
1957
1960
1974
1975
Thermal cracking
Sweetening
Thermal reforming
Hydrogenation
Coking
Solvent extraction
Solvent dewaxing
Cat. polymerization
Catalytic cracking
Visbreaking
Alkylation
Isomerization
Fluid catalytic cracking
Deasphalting
Catalytic reforming
Hydrodesulfurization
Inhibitor sweetening
Catalytic isomerization
Hydrocracking
Catalytic dewaxing
Residual hydrocracking
Purpose
Produce kerosene
Lubricants (original)
Cracking feedstocks (1930's)
Increase gasoline
Reduce sulfur & odor
Improve octane number
Remove sulfur
Produce gasoline basestocks
Improve lubricant viscosity index
Improve pour point
Improve gasoline yield & octane number
Higher octane gasoline
Reduce viscosity
Increase gasoline octane & yield
Produce alkylation feedstock
Increase gasoline yield & octane
Increase cracking feedstock
Convert low-quality naphtha
Remove sulfur
Remove mercaptan
Convert to molecules with high octane number
Improve quality and reduce sulfur
Improve pour point
Increase gasoline yield from residual
By-products, etc.
Naphtha, tar, etc.
Asphalt, residual
coker feedstocks
Residual, bunker fuel
Sulfur
Residual
Sulfur
Coke
Aromatics
Waxes
Petrochemical feedstocks
Increased distillate, tar
High-octane aviation gasoline
Naphtha
Asphalt
Aromatics
Sulfur
Disulfides
Alkylation feedstocks
Alkylation feedstocks
Wax
Heavy residuals
Ref: http://www.osha.gov/dts/osta/otm/otm_iv/otm_iv_2.html
31
Description of Petroleum Refinery
• Manages hydrocarbon molecules
• Organized & coordinated arrangement of manufacturing processes
 Provide physical & chemical change of crude oil
 Salable products with specifications & volumes as demanded by the
marketplace
• Complete refinery will include:
 Tankage for storage
 Dependable source for
electric power
 Waste disposal & treatment
facilities
 Product blending facilities
 Around the clock operations
 Conversion units
32
Blending
Conversion Processes
Raw
Materials
Fractionation
Petroleum Refinery Block Flow Diagram
Products
34
Petroleum Refinery Block Flow Diagram
Gases
Sulfur
Plant
Polymerization
Sat Gas
Plant
Gas
Sulfur
LPG
Fuel Gas
Alkyl
Feed
Alkylation
Gas
Separation &
Stabilizer
LPG
Butanes
Isomerization
Polymerization
Naphtha
Light Naphtha
Alkylate
Aviation
Gasoline
Automotive
Gasoline
Isomerate
Reformate
Naphtha
Hydrotreating
Heavy
Naphtha
Solvents
Naphtha
Reforming
Naphtha
Atmospheric
Distillation
Jet Fuels
Crude
Oil
Kerosene
Desalter
Cat
Naphtha
Distillate
AGO
Hydrocracking
LVGO
Kerosene
Fluidized
Catalytic
Cracking
Gas Oil
Hydrotreating
Vacuum
Distillation
Solvents
Distillate
Hydrotreating
Treating &
Blending
Heating Oils
Diesel
Cat
Distillates
Fuel Oil
Cycle Oils
HVGO
Residual
Fuel Oils
DAO
Solvent
Deasphalting
Visbreaking
Vacuum
Residuum
Coker
Naphtha
Heavy
Coker
Gas
Oil
SDA
Bottoms
Naphtha
Asphalts
Distillates
Fuel Oil
Bottoms
Lube Oil
Solvent
Dewaxing
Lubricant
Greases
Waxes
Waxes
Coking
Light Coker
Gas Oil
Coke
35
Supplemental Slides
• Genealogy Of Major U.S. Refiners
• Recent refinery closures
• U.S. Oil from Imports
• Import/Export Refined Products – Valero Example
• Prices may vary by location
 Gasoline & diesel taxes by state
• Process cost estimates
• Satellite View of Selected U.S. Refineries
43
Growth of U.S. Energy Consumption
120
15
Energy Consumed (Quad = 10 BTU)
100
80
Wood
Hydroelectric Power
Nuclear Electric Power
60
Coal
Natural Gas
Petroleum
40
20
0
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Source: 1850-1949, Energy Perspectives: A Presentation of Major Energy and Energy-Related Data, U.S. Department of the Interior,
1975; 1950-2010, Annual Energy Review 2011, Table 1.3.
44
Refiner’s Realignment
“US refiners continue consolidation, restructuring efforts”, Leffler, Oil & Gas Journal, Aug. 3, 2015
45
Recent Refinery Closures
Ref: Valero, UBS Global Oil and Gas Conference, May 21-22, 2013
46
U.S. Refinery & Blender Net Production
Includes production to May 2016 – updated August 4, 2016
Source: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_refp_dc_nus_mbbl_m.htm
47
U.S. Oil from Imports
EIA published data used for charts – updated August 4, 2016
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_wkly_dc_nus-z00_mbblpd_w.htm
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wiup_dcu_nus_w.htm
48
Import/Export Refined Products – Valero Example
Ref: Valero, UBS Global Oil and Gas Conference, May 21-22, 2013
49
Prices Are Crude Specific – Historical Example
Ref: Statistics, Oil & Gas Journal, January 27, 2014
50
Pump prices are not the same across U.S.
Source: http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/images/gasoline_prices_map_375.png
Downloaded August 4, 2016
51
Gasoline Taxes are not the same across U.S.
Source: http://www.api.org/oil-and-natural-gas-overview/industry-economics/fuel-taxes
52
Diesel Taxes are not the same across U.S.
Source: http://www.api.org/oil-and-natural-gas-overview/industry-economics/fuel-taxes
53
Differential Between Regular & Premium Gasolines
Source: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_refmg_dcu_nus_m.htm
54
Process Cost Estimates
• Accounts for size impact on installed cost
• Developed from reported final costs & supplemented
with engineering estimates
• Meant to represent “typical” values – no better than
±25%
• Not included:
 Working capital
 Inventories
 Start-up expenses
 Cost of land
 Site preparation
 Taxes
 Licenses
 Permits
 Duties
Kaiser & Gary, “Study updates refinery investment cost curves”, Oil & Gas Journal,
Apr. 23, 2007, pp 84-94. (Delayed coking curves may have been switched)
55
Satellite View of Selected U.S. Refineries
Dakota Prairie Refinery, Dickinson, ND
19,000 bbl per calendar day
Motiva Enterprises LLC, Port Arthur, TX
56
Marathon Garyville Refinery, Garyville, LA
Wood River Refinery, Roxanna, IL
57
Suncor Refinery, Commerce City, CO
Phillips 66 Alliance Refinery, Belle Chasse, LA
58

Petroleum Refining Overview

Transcription

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