docUNIVERSITY OF MIAMI CHANGES IN THE ARCTIC AND THEIR
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UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI CHANGES IN THE ARCTIC AND THEIR
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15
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37.48
Class
}
}
}
}
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15
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Seasonal variation of Arctic ice extent
Ice extent difference between high and low NAO cases
8
20
7.5
15
percentage
6.5
6
10 km
2
7
6
10
5
5.5
0
5
4.5
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12
1
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1
2
month
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12
1
month
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Seasonal Variation of Ice Extent
Canadian Basin
Eurasian Basin
2.98
2
1.9
2.97
2
1.7
6
10 km
6
10 km
2
1.8
2.96
2.95
1.6
1.5
2.94
2.93
1.4
1
3
5
7
month
9
11
1.3
1
1
3
Eurasian Coast
5
7
month
9
11
1
9
11
1
9
11
1
Barents Sea
1.6
1
1.4
0.8
2
1
0.6
6
10 km
106 km2
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.6
0.2
0.4
0.2
1
3
5
7
month
9
11
0
1
1
3
5
GIN Seas
7
month
Baffin Bay
0.7
0.4
0.6
0.3
2
0.4
6
10 km
106 km2
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0
1
3
5
7
month
9
11
1
0
1
3
5
7
month
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ÓÔ
Seasonal Variation of Ice Compactness
Canadian Basin
Eurasian Basin
1
1
0.95
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.85
0.7
0.8
0.6
0.75
0.7
1
3
5
7
month
9
11
1
0.5
1
3
Eurasian Coast
5
7
month
9
11
1
9
11
1
9
11
1
Barents Sea
1
1
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.4
1
3
5
7
month
9
11
1
0.3
1
3
5
GIN Seas
7
month
Baffin Bay
1
1
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.2
1
3
5
7
month
9
11
1
0.4
1
3
5
7
month
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/10
Winter Max Ice Extent
Summer Min Ice Extent
8.6
6
8.4
5.5
106 km2
106 km2
8.2
8
7.8
5
4.5
7.6
4
7.4
7.2
0
10
20
30
40
model year
50
60
3.5
70
0
2.1
2.8
2
2.7
2.6
2.5
20
30
40
model year
50
60
70
Summer Min Ice Thickness
2.9
meter
meter
Winter Max Ice Thickness
10
1.9
1.8
0
10
20
30
40
model year
50
60
70
1.7
0
Winter Max Ice Compactness
10
20
30
40
model year
50
60
70
Summer Min Ice Compactness
0.975
0.74
0.73
0.97
0.72
0.71
0.965
0.7
0.69
0.96
0.68
0.955
0
10
20
30
40
model year
50
60
70
0.67
0
10
20
30
40
model year
50
60
70
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Î8ÏÒCÛZÐÉ8×FÑÉ8ÔÐÊ=ÒC×FÉ&áÐ×FÑÊÍtÖÝÒ]ÎËQÐÉ8ÊËg̨×=ÑZÔSØ8ÒÐÉÒ!×=Ñ×=ÔSÒ¢ÒSêVÎÒÑ)Î×=ÑÎ8ÏÒ1032 ìÂÚ;ÒÐÉåÌ,Ï×FÔLÏ-ÐÔÔSË1ÝÑ)Î8É
ç§ËØÐ.Û$Ë1ÝÎ ü.Ç4 Ëç%Î8ÏÒÔLÏÐÑãÒÉ×FÑT×=ÔSÒÒSêVÎÒÑ)ÎIÜ65#×ã1ÝØ8Òö;Ù=äö1âaÙæ"ÏÒÔaÏÐÑãÒÉËç×=ÔSÒÒSêVÎÒÑ)Î×=ÑuÎ8ÏÒ
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Variation of winter maximum Ice Extent
Eurasian Basin
Barents Sea
1.92
0.9
1.9
0.85
2
1.86
0.8
6
10 km
106 km2
1.88
1.84
0.75
1.82
0.7
1.8
1.78
0
10
20
30
40
model year
50
60
0.65
70
0
10
20
50
60
70
50
60
70
Baffin Bay
0.55
0.7
0.5
0.6
0.45
2
0.8
0.4
6
10 km
0.5
6
10 km
2
GIN Sea
30
40
model year
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.25
0.1
0
10
20
30
40
model year
50
60
70
0.2
0
10
20
30
40
model year
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Variation of winter maximum Ice Thickness
Canadian Basin
Eurasian Basin
3.95
2.8
3.9
2.6
meter
meter
3.85
3.8
2.4
3.75
2.2
3.7
3.65
0
10
20
30
40
model year
50
60
2
70
0
10
20
Eurasian Coast
30
40
model year
50
60
70
50
60
70
50
60
70
Barents Sea
2.5
1.5
2.4
1.4
2.2
meter
meter
2.3
2.1
1.3
1.2
2
1.1
1.9
1.8
0
10
20
30
40
model year
50
60
1
70
0
10
20
Baffin Bay
3.5
1.6
3
1.4
2.5
1.2
meter
meter
GIN Sea
2
1.5
1
30
40
model year
1
0.8
0
10
20
30
40
model year
50
60
70
0.6
0
10
20
30
40
model year
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5
10
5
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w/m2
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0
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1
3
5
7
month
9
11
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1
3
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20
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1
3
5
7
month
9
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1
3
5
7
month
9
11
1
9
11
1
9
11
1
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30
−10
−20
10
0
1
3
5
7
month
9
11
−10
1
1
3
Norwegian Sea
5
7
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30
60
20
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w/m2
w/m2
11
−20
Greenland Sea
10
0
−10
9
0
10
−30
7
month
Barents Sea
60
w/m2
w/m2
Eurasian Coast
5
20
0
1
3
5
7
month
9
11
1
−20
1
3
5
7
month
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Ice flux exchanges between Arctic and marginal seas
Ice Export to Barents Sea
100
300
50
100
−50
−100
0
−100
0
Sv
−3
200
10
10−3 Sv
Fram Strait Ice Export
400
−150
1
3
5
7
month
9
11
1
−200
Mean Ice Thickness at Fram Strait
1
3
5
7
month
9
11
1
Mean Ice Thickness at Barents Sea
2
1.5
1.5
meter
meter
1
1
0.5
0.5
0
1
3
5
7
month
9
11
0
1
Mean Ice Velocity at Fram Strait
5
7
month
9
11
1
4
2
cm/s
10
cm/s
3
Mean Ice Velocity at Barents Sea
15
5
0
−5
1
0
−2
−4
1
3
5
7
month
9
11
1
−6
1
3
5
7
month
9
11
1
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Seasonal Variation of Ice Volume
Canadian Basin
Eurasian Basin
11
4
10
3.5
10 km
9
3
3
10 km
3
4.5
3
12
3
8
2.5
7
2
6
1
3
5
7
month
9
11
1.5
1
1
3
Eurasian Coast
5
7
month
9
11
1
9
11
1
9
11
1
Barents Sea
3.5
1
3
0.8
3
2
0.6
3
10 km
103 km3
2.5
1.5
0.4
1
0.2
0.5
0
1
3
5
7
month
9
11
0
1
1
3
5
GIN Seas
Baffin Bay
0.8
0.5
0.4
3
10 km
0.4
0.3
3
103 km3
0.6
0.2
0
7
month
0.2
0.1
1
3
5
7
month
9
11
1
0
1
3
5
7
month
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576
Sea Ice Volume Exchange Between Sub−basins
Canadian Basin to Eurasian Basin
Eurasian Coast to Canadian Basin
200
100
150
50
10−3 Sv
10−3 Sv
100
50
0
0
−50
−50
−100
1
3
5
7
month
9
11
1
−100
1
3
5
7
month
9
11
1
Eurasian Coast to Eurasian Basin
60
20
10
−3
Sv
40
0
−20
−40
1
3
5
7
month
9
11
1
8
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High NAO case
Climatic case
37.2
18.2
⇓
19.3
19.0
⇓
50.0 ⇒
31.8
Low NAO case
⇓
⇐ 26.5
80.5
⇓
176.
3.8
3.5
15.5
⇓
22.5 ⇒
26.5
18.7
⇑
⇐ 16.5
42.5
9.3
12.8
⇓
15.0 ⇒
16.5
⇓
97.0
24.3
⇐ 13.0
31.7
13.0
⇓
72.5
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High NAO case
Climatic case
1.16
0.57
⇓
0.6
0.59
⇓
1.56 ⇒
0.99
0.12
⇓
⇐ 0.82
2.5
0.7 ⇒
0.82
0.58
0.29
⇑
⇐ 0.51
1.32
0.76
0.12
⇓
⇐ 0.82
4.96
⇓
6.15
4.74
0.4
Low NAO case
2.12
0.48
⇓
0.7 ⇒
1.6
⇐ 0.4
0.99
⇓
2.26
2.9
0.59
⇓
0.4
0.47 ⇒
0.51
Climatic case
3.56
1.56 ⇒
⇓
⇓
3.02
High NAO case
5.48
0.11
0.48
⇓
⇓
5.47
0.57
⇓
Low NAO case
0.29
⇑
⇐ 0.51
3.89
⇓
3.57
⇓
0.4
0.47 ⇒
1.35
5.24
⇐ 0.4
3.24
1.35
⇓
2.79
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Å*Æ
È
2690
J O U R N A L OF CLIMATE
Ç
VOLUME 13
Iceland − Lisbon
Winter (djfm) NAO Index
Fram Strait ice flux, km3/yr
and6500
Rothrock (1999) through tracking the displacement
of common sea-ice features in sequential 85 GHz and
37 GHz
5500 brightness temperature fields during winter (OcÓ
tober–May). These authors also emphasize the strong
Õ
positive relationship with the NAO index. Modern simÖ
4500 provide further confirmator y evidence. The
ulations
mean simulated volume flux by Harder et al. (1998;
2870
km 3 × yr 1 ) compares well with the mean of mea3500
surements from 1990–96 by Vinje et al. (1998; 2843
km 3 × yr 1 ; bar ‘‘1’’ in Fig. 15). Figure 15 also describes
2500from the Advanced Arctic Ocean Model with
output
Sea-Ice recently developed at Navy Postgraduate
School,
1500 Monterey (W. Malowski 1998, personal com4
munication; Zhang et al. 1999). A 15-yr integration of
Ó
this
high-resolution
30-layer
model,
driven
by
a
new
Ø
ECMWF reanalysis for 1979–93, shows annual aver2
ages of the Fram Strait ice flux, which vary from 2200
Ó
3×
1
3×
1
to 3150 km yr , with a mean of 2555 km yr . Clearly, both the scaling and the time dependence of the
0
simulated volume flux are well matched to the observed
flux and its supposed forcing over this 15-yr period,
−2
suggesting that the essential dynamics of ice transport
Ó
through Fram Strait are adequately captured by the model.
−4
Because there is no very obvious time lag between
forcing and
flux,
these
observed
and
simulated
series
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
also appear to confirm the dominance
of direct regional
year
wind forcing over broadscale changes in the Arctic
Ocean circulation in determining the year-to-year varÛÜÝBÞßà-áâ·ã1äKåAæBç
èµéEßCÜêæBë`æì<íîà-ï'Üë1íà"ß%ð(ñ'òÜëóàô!ï'Üíî`íîà(æõµêà"ßöàóI÷*àêíÜç5éEíàóI÷éëó`ç!æó*ø
iability of ice flux. The dominant wind forcing in recent
àùàócÛßCéçvúíß>éÜíKöæBù)Þç
à(ûµÞ*ô!æìÜüàâ=ý'îà-ùà"ì× years
íAèDéhas
ëàù[
ÜêKìß
æBç¼
íîàHÞèairflow
èlà"ßAèDé
ëàùµæìÛ
ÜÝBÞßà Æþ æì
been
the
anomalous
associated
with
Ó
the extreme positive phase of the NAO.
ÿHÜü*êæBë
>âäöæBùÞç
à'ûµÞ*ô5üæBç
èlæBêÜíà(æì<àêíÜç5éEíàêKæì-Üë8à'éëDó`ÛÜëëàéêé
éëó-Üë8à
ÆÅ L
!
ÆÅÅ
"2ñ-ùàêà"à"ö#b.
The
$
GSA
ÆÅÅ ã>â¾ýPîà5êæBùÜó,íßCÜéëÝBùà!àêíÜç!éEíàêGéEßà
paradox
õ&%'-Ü)ë(8à'$
ÆÅÅ >âKýPîà-êæBùÜó`óæííàócùÜëàPÜ)ê\íîà
Over the past two decades, then, which include our
Ù
there
best
ï'Üë1íFà"
2ÿ Comparison
*BÛ,+-^ð(
Ü)ëó
àô"
ªìªßæBwith
ç/the
.-obser
Þßßved,
àùù ÆÅ
>â )
ç
àéë
ædatasets,
ìµíîàPç
àéêseems
Þßàó2unanimity
1$àêíÜç5éEíàóLûµÞ*ô
Åþ and
Æ most
0 complete
É . 15.
IGß)
of ñ'
theòÄ
winter
NAO
index
Ó
Ê estimated, and modeled Fram Strait volume flux of ice since 1976.
the
ice
flux
and
positive
NAO
are
closely linked.
that
Ú
Ç 5$
ÆÅÅ >âFýPîàHÞèèlà"ßFèDéEßíFæìdíîàßCÜÝBî1íFèDéëàùlÜêFç
æ*óàùàócÛßCéç
3HÜë(––à4
*
ú
í
ßCéÜí%
ÜüàHöæBùÞç
à
– Volume flux series merging the estimates of Vinje and
with
The question is whether this (or indeed any) link
Finnekasa (1986) and Vinje et al. (1998) (Alekseev et al. 1997). – Ó the NAO is robust in the longer term. In the 40-yr simûµÞ*ô`õDéêàócæBëcíîÜêAïAæ
ß [â=ýPîàùæ&ïAà"ß%èDéEßíFæìdíîàßCÜÝBî1íKèµéëàùIÜêAíîàð(ñ'ò_Üëóàô5ÞêàócíæLìªæßCüà
– – Estimates based on direct measurements, 1990–96 by Vinje et Ö
ulated ice flux series, which Harder et al. (1998) derive
Ë al. (1998). – – – Ì The winter (DJFM) NAO index (from Hurrell
íîà
ç
æ*óàùaâýPîàGêæBùÜ)óùÜ)ëàMßà"èßCàêàëYíêå%éêàGfrom
á÷Iíî
àLóæ
ííàó»ùÜëàGåFéêà þ ÷<ésea-ice
ëó¾íîmodel,
à
óéêîàóùÜ)ëà
their
dynamic/thermodynamic
1995a). – – – Modeled ice flux using the ECMWF reanalysis,
forced by NCEP–NCAR (reanalysis) winds and temMaslowski and Y. Zhang 1998, personal communicaåFéÍ 1979–93
êà â (W.
Î mean of the measured/estimated flux (Vinje et al. 1998).
Õ
tion). 1
õDéêàó`æBënóÜßàüíAç
àéêÞßàç!àëYíê"÷
ø Å
ÆÅÅ
and this version of the ice flux calculation is also shown
in the upper panel of Fig. 15. As shown, the winter
NAO index explains about 63% of the variance in the
annual efflux of ice since 1976 (Fig. 17b) so that, very
approximately, a 1-sigma change in the winter NAO
Ð
index is associated with a 200 km 3 change in annual ice
flux.
Ñ
We have a variety of ways of checking whether our
Ò
recent estimates of the relative interannual changes in
Ó
the efflux of ice from Fram Strait are likely to be sound.
Ô
A very similar time dependence of the area flux of ice
has recently been derived for an 18-yr period by Kwok
Ï
peratures, they find a close fit between ice flux and NAO
over the past two decades but very little correspondence
in earlier years (Harder et al. 1998, their Fig. 2c). SimÐ
ilarly , the correlation that Kwok and Rothrock (1999)
derive between the NAO index and their satellite-based
series of ice flux estimates is good during the years of
Ó
the positive NAO but degrades during earlier (NAO )
×
years. In a 50-yr series of ice flux estimates recently
derived by T. Vinje (1999, personal communication),
any simple correlation that now exists with the NAO
Ù
breaks down so that increased efflux can occur in both
Ó
the high- and low-index phases of the NAO. The case
of the Great Salinity Anomaly (GSA; Dickson et al.
1988) provides some insight as to why.
The term GSA describes the anomalous increase by
67
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ô0ÙÚöhàânÑÖCÔSÑÒÛ3ÞÑÖCØ}ÕQÑÖ<ÔSÒÔSÖ}ØCÙÚPØCÙUÔSÒUÒÚ^â}ÔSÛ3@Ú 2^ÞÒUÚÑÒUÓmØCÙ,àUÖ[áàUÛ<ÙWáÞâ<ÚzÚ?ÑÖCÔSßSãÔS7Ò ,àÚ?ÒQÛ3Ú?Ó~Õgã
Û<ÙQÑÒÜÚ?Ö0ÔSÒ'ØCÙÚlñ[ÔaÒUÓåÑØ)Ø)Ú^â<Òéhô0ÙUÚAÔaÛ3FÚ ,à7óÕ`Ú^ØñuÚ^Ú?ÒØCÙÚlöàâ<ÑÖCÔSÑÒ'ÕQÑÖ<ÔSÒÑÒUÓØCÙÚlùÑâCÚ?ÒNØCÖAï,Ú?Ñ
GH
Sea Ice Volume Exchange Between Sub−basins
Eurasian Coast to Canadian Basin
50
20
40
10
10
10
−3
Sv
30
−3
Sv
Canadian Basin to Eurasian Basin
60
30
20
10
0
−10
0
10
20
30
40
model year
50
60
−20
70
0
Eurasian Coast to Eurasian Basin
10
20
30
40
model year
50
60
70
Eurasian Basin to Barents Sea
22
0
20
−10
Sv
10
10
−20
−3
16
−3
Sv
18
14
−30
12
−40
10
8
0
10
20
30
40
model year
50
60
70
−50
0
10
20
30
40
model year
50
60
70
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Seasonal Variations of the ML Salinity and Temperature
Canadian basin
Canadian basin
−1.78
−1.785
32.5
temperature (°C)
salinity (psu)
33
32
−1.79
−1.795
31.5
31
1
3
5
7
month
9
11
1
−1.8
−1.805
1
3
Eurasian basin
temperature ( C)
°
salinity (psu)
33
32.5
1
3
5
7
month
9
11
11
1
9
11
1
9
11
1
−1.6
−1.8
1
1
3
5
7
month
9
Eurasian Coast
0.5
temperature ( C)
32
0
°
salinity (psu)
1
−1.4
Eurasian Coast
31
30
1
3
5
7
month
9
11
−0.5
−1
−1.5
−2
1
1
3
Barents Sea
5
7
month
Barents Sea
2
temperature ( C)
34.8
34.6
°
salinity (psu)
11
−1.2
33
34.4
34.2
34
9
−1
33.5
29
7
month
Eurasian basin
34
32
5
1
3
5
7
month
9
11
1
1
0
−1
−2
1
3
5
7
month
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Seasonal Variations of the ML Salinity and Temperature
Greenland Sea
Greenland Sea
6
temperature (°C)
salinity (psu)
34.5
34
33.5
33
32.5
1
3
5
7
month
9
11
4
2
0
−2
1
1
3
Iceland Sea
temperature (°C)
salinity (psu)
34.7
34.6
1
3
5
7
month
9
11
9
11
1
9
11
1
9
11
1
6
1
3
5
7
month
Norwegian Sea
15
temperature (°C)
salinity (psu)
1
8
Norwegian Sea
34.8
34.7
34.6
1
3
5
7
month
9
11
10
5
0
1
1
3
Labrador Sea
5
7
month
Labrador Sea
35
12
temperature (°C)
34.9
salinity (psu)
11
10
4
1
34.9
34.8
34.7
34.6
34.5
9
12
34.8
34.5
7
month
Iceland Sea
34.9
34.5
5
1
3
5
7
month
9
11
1
10
8
6
4
1
3
5
7
month
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Variations of the ML Salinity and Temperature
Canadian basin
Canadian basin
−1.796
−1.797
32.3
salinity (psu)
salinity (psu)
32.4
32.2
32.1
32
−1.798
−1.799
−1.8
0
10
20
30
40
model year
50
60
70
−1.801
0
10
20
−1.2
33.8
−1.3
33.6
33.4
33.2
33
0
10
20
30
40
model year
50
60
−1.7
70
0
10
20
30
40
model year
60
70
50
60
70
50
60
70
Eurasian Coast
−1.3
31.6
−1.4
salinity (psu)
salinity (psu)
50
−1.6
31.4
31.2
31
−1.5
−1.6
−1.7
0
10
20
30
40
model year
50
60
−1.8
70
0
10
20
Barents Sea
−0.2
34.6
−0.4
34.5
34.4
0
10
20
30
40
model year
30
40
model year
Barents Sea
34.7
salinity (psu)
salinity (psu)
70
−1.5
Eurasian Coast
34.3
60
−1.4
31.8
30.8
50
Eurasian basin
34
salinity (psu)
salinity (psu)
Eurasian basin
30
40
model year
50
60
70
−0.6
−0.8
−1
0
10
20
30
40
model year
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Variations of the ML Salinity and Temperature
Greenland Sea
Greenland Sea
4
3
34.5
salinity (psu)
salinity (psu)
35
34
33.5
33
2
1
0
0
10
20
30
40
model year
50
60
−1
70
0
10
20
Iceland Sea
60
70
50
60
70
50
60
70
50
60
70
7.5
34.8
salinity (psu)
salinity (psu)
50
Iceland Sea
35
34.6
34.4
34.2
30
40
model year
0
10
20
30
40
model year
50
60
7
6.5
6
70
0
10
20
Norwegian Sea
30
40
model year
Norwegian Sea
35.2
8
salinity (psu)
salinity (psu)
35
34.8
34.6
7.5
7
34.4
34.2
0
10
20
30
40
model year
50
60
70
6.5
0
10
20
Labrador Sea
Labrador Sea
35.2
9
salinity (psu)
salinity (psu)
35
34.8
34.6
34.4
34.2
30
40
model year
0
10
20
30
40
model year
50
60
70
8
7
6
5
0
10
20
30
40
model year
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σ*2
5
55
9
99 9 9
1
(b) high NAO in Arctic
15
(a) high NAO
σ*2
33.58
33.58
34.43
34.43
35.12
35.12
35.67
9
36.10
13
5
35.67
13
36.10
36.43
36.68
−1
−1
9 36.87
9
13
7
36.43
−1
36.87
−1
−1
37.14
37.14
3 37.24
1
1 37.24
1
37.02
5
37.02
5
37.33
37.33
1
11
37.41
37.41
37.48
75
60
45
30 15
37.48
70
80
90
80
70
1
1
σ*2
σ*2
(d) Diff L − H NAO in Arctic
33.58
33.58
34.43
34.43
35.12
−0
.3
35.12
−1
−0.3
37.24
0.3
−
60
45
30 15
37.02
37.24
37.33
37.41
37.48
75
36.68
37.14
.6
37.33
37.41
36.87
−0
00.6.3
37.14
36.10
36.43
0.9
0.3
−1
37.02
0.3
−0.3
36.87
−0.9
0.3
1
1
36.68
0.6
−5
35.67
0.3
36.43
0.6
36.10
3
1
0.3
0.6
35.67
−0.
−1
1
(c) Diff L − H NAO
36.68
37.48
70
80
90
80
70
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ÚÚÛ
σ*2
(a) Arctic component
35.12
35.67
3 36.10
1 35.67
3 36.10
36.43
36.43
−1
5
37.02
37.14
37.14
37.24
3 37.24
1
37.33
37.41
37.33
37.41
3
70
36.68
36.87
37.02
1
1
−1
7
36.68
1
5
Latitude
80
34.43
36.87
−3
90
33.58
34.43
35.12
97
−1
80
33.58
9
1
(b) Barents Sea component
−3
70
σ*2
37.48
70
80
90
37.48
80
70
Latitude
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"#"%$
1.2
0.3
climatic mean
high NAO
low NAO
MHT Diff H - L NAO
0.25
0.8
MHT (PW)
MHT (PW)
1
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.05
0
0
−0.2
75
60 45 30 15
0.35
−0.05
75
60 45 30 15
0.05
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MOK]D;C'\B?;C'C8-0.3
.^QR_a`9'*)`?b61cdMOB-D#F]F].%B;C'C89.^QR_T:#89B;CDfegb61cdMO0.04
BY:#K/`-.%B;\'C8-.^Qh[:#K].%K2Xi'*)`aFXLY:#8-.%;Z5(>PEH
B9'jk.,/.%89[l0.25
.nmk.Foep..%8@`9'*)`q:#89B;CDferb61cs[:#K].%K%2It8Y'*F/K5XuXvw2
0.03
0.2
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0.15
0.02
0.1F/`-.,R'*)`TFpLY:#8-.%;YF]D#)#.F/`-.,%_9'*FI[:#8mk.K/..%8F/`9:GFF/`-.~89:G,/,/D^egLkDK/'CF/'*#.1[l.%;C;'C8?F/`-.~+-L9Lk.,
LY:#8-.%;:#89B{
0.01
0.05
LY:#8-.%;\K1D#V&h'C)+-,/.=032 " 'CK:#[lF/+Y:#;C;*LY:G,AFD#VIF/`-.=>
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70
80
90
80
70
70
80
90
80
70
:#89B
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8-D#FYDfemY:#[/F]D@F/`-.b3.%:@:#Ky:@;*Dfe.,m9,R:#89[A`B-.%89K].=Dfe289K]F].%:#B_(F/`9'CKe:GF].,:#[lF/+9:#;C;*
YD^e1K7'C8aF]DF/`-.N6,A[lF/'C[mY:#K/'\8F/`-,AD+-)`}F/`-.N[A`9:#8989.%;CK([lD898-.%[lF/'C8-)~F/`-.%<2hy[lD<?LY:G,A'CK]D8U_#F/`-.N;*Dfe.,
LY:G,/FD#VUF/`-.n>cg[l.%;C;'C8F/`9.~6,A[lF/'C[:#89B:G,/.%8aF/K13.%:y'\8{&('*)+-,A.~032}K/`-D^e1K)#,/.%:GF
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F/`-.B9.%89K].ne:GF].,1VWD#,A<=.%B'C8F/`9.:G,A.%8TF/Kn3.%:2
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5
4
3
Sv
2
1
0
−1
−2
−3
0
10
20
30
40
model year
50
60
70
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0.2
0.2
MHT at 40 N
0.15
0.1
MHT (PW)
MHT (PW)
0.1
0.05
0
0.05
0
−0.05
−0.05
−0.1
−0.1
−0.15
MHT at 25 N
0.15
0
20
40
model year
60
−0.15
0
20
40
model year
60
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Class 4
Class 3
.8
.8
1
1.4
2.4
1.4
.7
.5
.8
.5
.8
.4
.5
1
2.2
2.3
.5
2.3
.6
1.1
1.1 1.1 1.4
3.7
4
1
1.6
2
4
3.8
.4
.4
.5
75
2
1.2
1
75
1
.3
1.2
1
4
1
.8
.3
.5
.2
.4
.7
60
60
7
.2
.7
5.8
.8
7
45
.8
45
4.5
30
30
1
1
5.5
15
−90
−60
15
1.5
−30
0
30
60
−90
1
−60
−30
30
60
0
30
60
Class 5
11
3.5
9
.8
.5
7.5
2.2
4.7
3.8
1.1
4
10.6
8.7
3
75
1
.8
1.3
2.5
60
.8
.4
45
.5
5.5
30
8.5
15
8
−90
−60
−30
0
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Class 1
Class 1
75
low NAO
75
1
1.6
60
60
6
9
45
45
10
30
30
15
−90
7.6
30
30
15
−60
−30
0
30
60
−90
high NAO
Class 2
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−30
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1.6
45
2
1.5
60
4
7
45
6
30
60
3
75
5
10
30
low NAO
3
60
0
Class 2
2
75
−60
5
30
9
15
8
15
−90
−60
−30
0
30
60
−90
−60
−30
0
30
60
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4
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1.6
4.5
5
60
1.5
2.5
60
1.7
45
9
30
1.3
7
10
45
3.6
6.6
30
15
15
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−60
−30
0
30
60
−90
−30
4.5
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60
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1
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30
low NAO
1.5
75
0
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high NAO
Class 4
−60
3.8
1
75
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60
60
3
2
45
45
30
30
15
15
−90
−60
−30
0
30
60
−90
−60
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30
60
high NAO
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low NAO
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1
1.5
3.8
4.5
3.1
2.8
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75
60
1.3
2.5
3
45
60
30
30
15
15
−60
−30
0
30
60
1.2
2.6
2
45
6.8
−90
1
75
5.8
−90
−60
−30
0
30
60
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