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SATURDAY
GRADE 3 MARYLAND SPRINT | BRITNEY EURTON
1ST SALUTOS AMIGOS
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2 ND CINCO CHARLIE
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P R E A K N E S S
PLAYBOOK
3 RD ALWAYS SUNSHINE
Happy Preakness Day! Much like the Derby, the undercard that the
Pimlico Racing Secretary put together is sensational. Forecast is
gloomy, but the energy and excitement in Maryland will not be!
The Maryland Sprint was inaugurated in 1987 and initially was held
at Laurel Park. Since its second running, the race has been run on
the Preakness Stakes undercard at six furlongs. It will go as Race
#5 and barring any scratches, we have a field of seven on hand.
As much as I would love to find a price, Salutos Amigos is just too
good. He’s coming off of a fourth place finish just two weeks ago
in the Churchill Downs Handicap behind three top sprinters and
closing on a track that seemingly played to horses on the front end.
Not only is he in good form, a Grade one winner, and gets Johnny V
- the forecast calls for a high chance of rain and this boy absolutely
LOVES the off track (7-for-7).
What Cinco Charlie has that Salutos Amigos does not is speed. He is awfully quick, and looks to
be the one to catch. He’s coming off a third place finish where he pressed a hot pace and faltered
behind a very talented horse in Subtle Indian. I see no shame in that, and what I’m most impressed
by was his race just prior to that. His win in the Duncan Kenner Stakes was ultra-impressive. He got
the lead and ran away with it that day, coming home with a career-best 103 Beyer Speed Figure.
Always Sunshine might be a cut below the top selection, but you can’t deny the direction in which
he’s trending. It was a career-best Beyer performance in his most recent start, bounding home by 11
½ lengths. With the quarantine at Parx lifted, trainer Ned Allard sees fit to run him against some of
the big boys. He has won three of his last four starts, and the only defeat came against G1 winner,
and top choice, Salutos Amigos. He has enough speed to be tactical and sit just off Cinco Charlie,
and he’s 2-for-2 over off tracks. If Salutos Amigos for some reason doesn’t run his race, and Cinco
Charlie doesn’t get the lead, we could see another dominating performance by Always Sunshine.
SATURDAY
JAMES W. MURPHY STAKES | JOAQUIN JAIME
1ST HE’LL PAY
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2 ND OUSBY
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P R E A K N E S S
PLAYBOOK
3 RD AQUAPHOBIA
As of Thursday morning, there is a 90% chance of rain on Saturday
with an expected half inch of rainfall. I’m still handicapping this
race to stay on the grass but there will definitely be some cut in the
turf course.
He’ll Pay is a half-brother to Caracortado (earned $587k on turf) and
the major difference recently has been a result of the move to grass
and synthetic tracks. He’s competed against some big fields in his
last six starts and has had some wide trips in a few of those races.
He took a big step forward in the Rushaway Stakes last out. He
was caught wide again on the first turn; the jockey took a hold and
settled a bit further back than normal. He made a quick move down
the backstretch weaving through horses, went up the rail on the far
turn, and won by 1 ½ lengths. He’s had time to recover off that race,
gets top rider Florent Geroux, and in a race with not much speed,
he can sit up close and finally be able to save some ground.
Ousby was claimed for $35,000 last December and has run well in five starts for the new barn. On
paper, there doesn’t appear to be a whole lot of speed, but he has shown the ability to be versatile
with different running styles. Two and three starts back, he had some trouble, and I think he could
have finished better in both races with cleaner trips. With the rain expected on Saturday, the turf will
have some juice, and he’s already proven he can handle softer ground.
Aquaphobia is lightly raced with a terrific pedigree (o/o G1 winner Pussycat Doll), but he’ll be giving
up a lot of experience to this field. After winning his debut at Tampa, he faced a tough group of
allowance horses at Keeneland. The winner (Tasit) was making his sixth start and looks to have
some talent. Camelot Kitten, the second-place finisher, would come right back to win the American
Turf at Churchill in his next start. Aquaphobia’s not very seasoned, but he seems to have some
ability, exits a very good race, and has every reason to step forward in only his third career start.
SATURDAY
P R E A K N E S S
THE VERY ONE STAKES | CALEB KELLER
1ST LADY SHIPMAN
•
2 ND JOYA REAL
PLAYBOOK
•
3 RD EXAGGERATED
With rain seemingly a formality on Saturday, I will still attempt to
handicap The Very One stakes with the potential of them running
it over a soft turf course. This is a big field of 12 fillies lining up
for a five-furlong sprint, with the heavy favorite breaking from the
furthest outside gate.
In the same way that Tepin’s speed figures tower over her peers in
the mile turf division, Lady Shipman’s numbers trump any of her
female turf sprint rivals. This is a race where I won’t try to outthink
the top spot and will concede to the “numbers never lie” theory.
While the turf sprint division is probably the most unheralded in
racing, it does seem to me that Lady Shipman is a special horse.
She’s fast; really fast! I might have been a bit reluctant to take her
as a heavy favorite if she was just coming off her defeat in Dubai.
However, with her easy win last out at Belmont, over soft ground to
boot, I have the confidence to just take her as the heavy favorite and then try to make some money
underneath.
When I’m going to take a horse who’s a heavy favorite that I’m expecting to win the battle up front,
my first inclination is to look for an off-the-pace runner to fill an underneath spot. Joya Real fits that
bill well. I’ve been following this Eddington mare for a while now, and she has an impressive and
consistent late kick in these turf sprints. She was actually favored versus Lady Shipman last July.
That was a race where the jockey tried to get Joya Real a bit closer to the tempo, and she didn’t
have her late punch. This looks like a great setup for her on Saturday, though. Daniel Centeno can
get her to relax early and wind up for her big stretch run. If Lady Shipman can put away the speed
types at the eighth pole, I think Joya Real will be the mare that she’ll have to hold off late.
On a day where Exaggerator will try to pull a “mild” upset against a heavy favorite, Exaggerated will
try to do the same in the The Very One. This Blame filly was always cut out to be a grass sprinter.
Some horses find this division later in their career or by accident. However, after paying $250,000
for this filly, Lael Stables realized early that she could sprint with top-level horses on the grass. I was
impressed with her stakes win at Keeneland. She took command of that race right from the start
and was giving up some stakes experience to quite a few rivals that day.
SATURDAY
P R E A K N E S S
THE VERY ONE STAKES | CALEB KELLER
1ST LADY SHIPMAN
•
2 ND JOYA REAL
PLAYBOOK
•
3 RD EXAGGERATED
The tall order today will be having Lady Shipman drawn to her outside. The bright side is the fact
that she won from off of the pace two starts ago, so we know she doesn’t have to have the lead.
With her improving ratings and versatility, I made her my third pick.
SATURDAY
P R E A K N E S S
CHICK LANG STAKES | MATT CAROTHERS
1ST JUSTIN SQUARED
•
2 ND COUNTERFORCE
PLAYBOOK
•
3 RD NEVER GONE SOUTH
In 2015, American Pharaoh wired the field in Preakness 140 over
a sloppy racetrack for Ahmed Zayat and his family. In 2016, Justin
Squared (named for Justin Zayat) could likewise wire the field in the
Chick Lang on Preakness Saturday at Pimlico over what should be a
similar type of surface. Bob Baffert also happens to be the trainer of
this 3-year-old son of Zensational, who drew the rail. Great front-end
rider Martin Pedroza will once again be aboard Justin Squared, who
has not trailed at any point in two lifetime starts.
Generally speaking, speed does well over a sloppy track, and he
appears to be a “Lone F” in the field of eight. He should improve in
career start number three, something he will definitely need to do
coming off a win at Los Alamitos. He also comes into the race off
a :45 flat bullet half-mile work at Santa Anita on May 15th, a crazyquick drill even for Baffert.
I will speculate that Counterforce will go off as the “chalk.” He is coming off a strong win in the
Bachelor Stakes at Oaklawn, a race that produced next out wins for both the second and third-place
finishers. Runner-up I will Score not only won, but did so in the G3 Laz Berrera at Santa Anita, albeit
earning a low Beyer of 82. Counterforce is by Smart Strike and out of a Bernardini mare, so he is
clearly bred to be able to handle the off track that we are all expecting.
Turn-back runner Never Gone South will round out my top three. Most recently, he battled on the
front end in the nine-furlong Federico Tesio, and didn’t give way until very late. The race has already
proven to be, at the very least, a decent one, with second-place finisher Governor Malibu coming
back to run an impressive, fast closing second to the undefeated Unified in last week’s Peter Pan.
SATURDAY
GRADE 3 GALLORETTE | CHRISTINA BLACKER
1ST TIGER RIDE
•
2 ND HEATH
•
P R E A K N E S S
PLAYBOOK
3 RD JOSDESANIMAUX
There are a fair amount of fillies and mares in here that want to
be forwardly-placed, although none of them have blazing early
speed. The quickest of them is Monster Sleeping. She should be
very sharp right now seeing as how she’s coming out of a sprint.
Alongside her early on will be Mizz Money who was on or near the
lead in her last two races at the Fair Grounds. I will play against
them both. I’m not sure Monster Sleeping has the class for this
field; and in the case of Mizz Money, I find that the Beyer speed
figures from the Fair Grounds don’t always hold up outside of
Louisiana.
My top pick will be Tiger Ride for Graham Motion. Her company
lines speak for themselves, as names like Tepin, Lady Eli, and Miss
Temple City jump off the page. Tiger Ride is a very consistent
performer. She always runs races that produce speed figures that
plot her on top in here. She finished out 2015 with a pair of wins, and although she hasn’t won
either of her races in 2016, she is performing at a high level. Two races back, she was second to
Stonetastic at seven furlongs in the Inside Information at Gulfstream. Stonetastic is a very fast
horse and a seven furlong specialist, so finishing second to her on the main track and off a layoff
is no disgrace. Tiger Ride followed that up with a sixth-place effort behind Tepin in the Jenny Wiley.
Tiger Ride gets class relief on Saturday and has a good record on turf and at this distance. She is
also versatile pace wise and should get a good trip from the middle of the pack.
Heath is a classic case of a filly that is getting better with maturity. Her 4-year-old debut was
extremely impressive over a soft turf course at Keeneland. She dropped back off the pace that day,
which gives me confidence that she can do the same from the outside post on Saturday. She is also
2-for-3 at the distance and has a Hall of Famer calling the shots. Trainers like Bill Mott know how to
point to a race and get a horse to fire their best shot on that day.
SATURDAY
GRADE 3 GALLORETTE | CHRISTINA BLACKER
1ST TIGER RIDE
•
2 ND HEATH
•
P R E A K N E S S
PLAYBOOK
3 RD JOSDESANIMAUX
Josdesanimaux has successfully climbed the class ladder, rattling off four wins in her last six starts.
This will be the toughest group she’s faced, but I think she is up to the task. Chad Brown had her
for all of those wins and had to take his time with her, as you can see several layoff lines between
many of her races. She doesn’t run often, but she tries hard every time. Mark Casse recently took
over the training and her 4-year-old debut was a credible second against minor stakes company at
Tampa. She should move forward off that and be competitive against this group.
SATURDAY
P R E A K N E S S
SIR BARTON STAKES | KURT HOOVER
1ST AMERICAN FREEDOM
•
2 ND DAZZLING GEM
PLAYBOOK
•
3 RD GETTYSBURG
A large and competitive field has been assembled for this year’s
edition of the Sir Barton. Shipping from all over, the 14 runners have
made their last start at nine different race tracks.
Let’s give American Freedom another chance. After a giant maiden
win in the slop at SA, he was bet down to the 7-5 choice for the Pat
Day Mile. He didn’t break sharply, steadied, and never really had a
comfortable trip. The fact Baffert runs him back quickly tells you the
horse has bounced back in good shape. Otherwise, he wouldn’t be
in the race. American Freedom also picks up the services of Florent
Geroux.
I respect the company Dazzling Gem has kept, as both Gun Runner
and Suddenbreakingnews ran well in the Derby. Let’s play the
trifecta two by two by all, hoping to catch a price for third.
SATURDAY
P R E A K N E S S
GRADE 2 DIXIE | PAUL LO DUCA
1ST GRAND ARCH
•
2 ND ZA APPROVAL
PLAYBOOK
•
3 RD TAKEOVER TARGET
Pending rain for Preakness Saturday could make the 115th running of
the Dixie very interesting.
Grand Arch is my top pick. He’s so classy and enjoys any type of
ground. He always puts himself in the right spot, and he’s very fresh
for this race.
Za Approval might be even classier than Grand Arch. He hasn’t run
since October, the red-hot Julien Leparoux takes the reings, and
he’s been working lights-out at Churchill Downs. I’m just worried
that the rain will hurt him. If it’s dry, he would be my top selection,
as he prefers firmer ground.
Takeover Target has had three races on yielding ground, and they’ve
all been great. He should really improve second off the layoff, and
the price should be right.
If you’re looking for a longshot, Prince Gagarin was a 5-1 winner at Keeneland over soft ground.
Leparoux does get off to ride Za Approval, but Javier Castellano is a pretty good pinch-hitter!
SATURDAY
GRADE 1 PREAKNESS STAKES | TODD SCHRUPP
1ST NYQUIST
•
2 ND EXAGGERATOR
•
P R E A K N E S S
PLAYBOOK
3 RD STRADIVARI
The biggest number that could greatly affect the outcome of
The Preakness is 90. As of the writing of this analysis, 90 is the
percentage forecast for rain on Saturday. Conventional wisdom
is an ‘off’ track greatly enhances the chances of Exaggerator;
conventional wisdom is right. However, rain also brings Cherry Wine
and Stradivari into play.
The largest question is, does an ‘off’ track hurt the chances of
Nyquist? Simply put: No. Nyquist handled one of the most difficult
tracks of the Kentucky Derby prep season when he won the Florida
Derby. I have no concerns about track condition with Nyquist. From
the first time I watched him in his debut win, I thought he could
be something special, yet I’ve picked against him in some of his
biggest races. His win in the Kentucky Derby and the powerful
move he made out of the far turn is a winning move nine out of 10
times in the Preakness.
Exaggerator’s running style is to close from far back. However, his connections realize he can’t be
as far back as he was in the Derby. If he can handle the tactical change and if he gets a rain-soaked
track, look out Nyquist.
I was at Keeneland when Stradivari blitzed an entry level allowance group. The talk going into the
race was he was ready for a big performance. He delivered, and then some. His two-turn efforts
have been impeccable, and the outside draw is perfect.
Cherry Wine was on the also eligible list for the Kentucky Derby, but did not get in. He was every bit
as good as his stablemate Brody’s Cause in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. His rider, Corey Lanerie,
will use the rail draw to his advantage.