Western Suffolk BOCES - Huntington Public Schools

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Western Suffolk BOCES
Board of Cooperative Educational Services
of Western Suffolk County, New York
Ms. Maryann Zumpano, President
Ms. Ilene Herz, Esq., Vice President
Ms. Mildred Browne
Mr. Sydney Finkelstein
Mr. Salvatore Marinello
Ms. Jeannette Santos
Mr. Peter Wunsch
Ms. Joan Johnson, District Clerk
Administration
Maureen Whitley .............................................•................ District Superintendent
Dr. Michael Mensch .................. Deputy Superintendent and Chief Operating Officer
Paula Klingelhoefer....................... Executive Director, Instructional Support Services
Joan E. Townley .......•....•......•... Coordinator, Office of School Planning and Research
Office of School Planning & Research
Division of Instructional Supporl Services
31 Lee Avenue
Wheatley Heights, New York 11798
Tel: 631159>6802
Fax: 6311623-4913
WESTERN SUFFOLK BOCES REGIONAL PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT 2007-2016
While the secondary grade configuration has shown overall growth from 2007 to 2013, the decline in the number of elementary and middle school
students during those years resulted in an overall 6.0% decline in enrollment in the Western Suffolk BOCES region-from a period high of 89,995
students in 2007 to 84,609 students in 2013. In 2013, Smithtown remains the largest district, with 10,038 students, while Babylon is the smallest
district, with 1,650 students_
Enrollment patterns vary across the region. Between 2012 and 2013, there were enrollment increases In three districts - Amityville (3.4%),
Copiague (1.0%) and Wyandanch (4. 5%). while the enrollment in Huntington and South Huntington remained stable.
Enrollment declined
approximately 1.2% - 3.4% in the remaining 13 districts. For the six years between 2007 and 2013 the greatest gain was seen in Amityville
(12.0%); while the greatest losses were seen in Babylon (12.3%), West Babylon (11.9%) and Kings Park (11.8%).
Overall regional enrollment is projected to decline by 5,448 students (6.4%) over the next three years as lower enrollments in elementary and
middle grades progress through the system. The number of births in Suffolk County declined from 21,252 in 1990 to 16,027 in 2011 . Smaller
kindergarten classes replaced larger exiting twelfth grade classes each year since 2007. As these smaller cohorts continue to move through the
system , losses are projected in elementary, middle and secondary grade enrollment from 2013 to 2016. These trends are consistent with those
noted in previous studies.
Gains or losses in enrollment are largely reflective of housing activity; new housing construction or re--sale of existing homes are important factors
when analyzing potential school enrollment. Records between 2007 and 2012 showed a decline in housing sales in the three towns - Babylon
(38% ), Smithtown (26%) and Huntington (14%). The weakened economy continues to impact the region's housing market, although there are
indications that the market is stabilizing, but at a lower level than seen in ttle ear1y 2000's. Babylon showed a small decrease in the number of
units sold when comparing 2012 to 2011; the decrease may be attributable to Hunicane Sandy and its aftermath_ Huntington and Smithtown saw
increases in the number of units sold between 2011 and 2012_ The median sales price in the three towns continued to decline when comparing
sales in 2012 to 2011. The sluggish housing market is represented by declines in school enrollment.
•
•
•
The elementary, K - 5, enrollment fell by 11.2 percent between 2007 and 2013. The enrollment is projected to decline by 7.5 percent over the
next three years, with a decrease of 2,695 students between 2013 and 2016.
The middle, 6 - 8, enrollment fell by 6.5 percent between 2007 and 2013. The enrollment is projected to decline by 6.6 percent over the next
three years, wittl a decrease of 1,330 students between 2013 and 2016_
The secondary, 9 - 12, enrollment grew by 1.0 percent between 2007 and 2013. The enrollment is projected to decline by 4. 7 percent, or
1,322 students between 2013 and 2016.
The Western Suffolk BOCES Office of School Planning & Research has conducted Comprehensive Long Range Planning Studies for over 125
school districts during the past five years. Comprehensive Long Range Planning Studies include analysis of demographic factors that have
influenced historical enrollment or can impact future enrollment. These factors include population, housing, economy, and non-public school
attendance.
For more infonnation, contact:
Western Suffolk BOCES, Division of Instructional Support Services
Paula Klingelhoefer, Executive Director
Office of School Planning & Research, Joan Townley, Coordinator
Voice: 631-595-6802
Email: jtownley@wsboces.org
Western Suffolk BOCES Regional Enrollment
Historical Enrollment.,, ..... . .. .. ... .... ..... .. ... .... ... ... .. .....
2007
2008
Kindergarten
6,118
First
6,476
Projected Enrollment.............
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
6,130
6, 119
5,839
5,693
5,611
5,406
5,251
5,136
4,898
6,315
6,329
6,316
5,985
5,842
5,828
5,573
5,413
5,295
Second
6,806
6,518
6,372
6,257
6,295
5,979
5,867
5,825
5,570
5,410
Third
6,861
6,910
6,549
6,453
6,368
6,279
5,979
5,905
5,863
5,606
Fourth
6,958
6,948
6,952
6,618
6,429
6,365
6,251
5,989
5,914
5,872
Fifth
7,016
7,047
6,957
7,028
6,626
6,480
6,389
6,282
6,019
5,944
Sixth
7,179
7,085
7,126
7,038
7,024
6,674
6,479
6,427
6,319
6,054
Seventh
7,256
7,185
7,180
7,234
7,020
7,011
6,709
6,517
6,465
6,356
Eighth
7,200
7,317
7,218
7,194
7,226
7,040
7,031
6,724
6,532
6,479
Ninth
7,176
7,341
7,333
7,247
7,165
7,181
7,089
7,035
6,728
6,536
Tenth
7,049
6,966
7,136
7,280
7,117
7,028
7,058
6,962
6,909
6,608
7,054
7,001
6,971
6,892
6,911
6,817
6,765
Eleventh
6,803
6,878
6,864
Twelfth
6, 688
6,685
6,813
6,820
6,914
7,020
6,962
6,845
6,864
6,770
Sp ED
409
207
210
213
572
609
669
594
582
568
K-12
89,995
89,532
89,158
88,591
87,435
86,090
84,609
82,840
81, 131
79, 161
-0.5%
-0.4%
-0.6%
-1.3%
-1.5%
-1.7%
-2.1%
-2.1%
-2.4%
34,825
33,915
33,025
-2.5%
-2.6%
-2.6%
19,668
19,316
18,889
-2.7%
-1.8%
-2.2%
27,753
27,318
26,679
-0.9%
-1.6%
-2.3%
%Change
K-5
40,235
%Change
6-8
%Change
21 ,635
9 -12
27,716
% Change
39,868
:39,278
38,511
37,396
36,556
35,720
-0.9%
-1.5%
-2.0%
-2.9%
-2.2%
-2.3%
21,587
21 ,524
21,466
21,270
20,725
20,219
-0.2%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.9%
-2.6%
-2.4%
27,870
28,146
28,401
28,197
28,200
28,001
0.6%
1.0%
0.9%
-0.7%
0.0%
-0.7%
Prepared by Western Suffolk BOCES, March 2014
Page 1of12
Source: BEDS Day Enrollment Verification Report by Location of Enrollment
(Data Contained in the Student Information Repository System, SIRS-313 Summary)
Western Suffolk BOCES K-12 Public School Enrollment
100,000
--
--
95,000
.
90,000!F
~:lo
~..
-~.
~=---- -~~. - -
85,000
---- -
-
II
-----==----. .
·-.............. ~.
80,000
~-
75,000
70,000
2007
2008
2009
Page 2of 12
2010
2011
2012
2013
projected
projected
projected
2014
2015
2016
Western Suffolk BOCES Public School Enrollment by Grade Configuration
• K-5
•K - 12
•9-12
• 6-8
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
~
-g•
us
60,000
0
.I
50,000
E
::I
z
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
projected
projected
projected
2014
2015
2016
OctoberofSchoolYear
Page 3of 12
(Data Contained in the Student Information Repository System, S/RS-313 Summary)
Western Suffolk BOCES Regional Enrollment • Component Districts
Historical Enrollment ............ ........... ... ........ ....... ...... .. .......................... .. ...
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Amityville
2,716
2,622
2,696
2,780
2,846
2,941
3,041
Babylon
1,881
1,855
1,807
1,788
1,743
1,692
1,650
Cold Spring Harbor
2,065
2,065
2,018
2,001
1,978
1,938
1,872
Commack
7,754
7,830
7,671
7,509
7,398
7,185
6,966
Copiague
4,633
4,592
4,663
4,720
4,756
4,829
4,877
Deer Park
4,203
4,277
4,196
4,206
4,167
4,206
4,157
Elwood
2,623
2,613
2,616
2,643
2,556
2,478
2,403
10, 142
10,098
10,037
9,782
9,653
9,427
9,154
Harborfields
3,704
3,686
3,664
3,630
3,528
3,418
3,372
Huntington
4,292
4,384
4,445
4,458
4,358
4,367
4,368
Kings Park
4,152
4,057
3,955
3,923
3,853
3,772
3,663
Lindenhurst
7,004
6,926
6,810
6,760
6,577
6,429
6,257
North Babylon
4,918
4,839
4,840
4,856
4,831
4,769
4,684
Northport/E Northport
6,512
6,410
6,333
6,368
6,220
6,062
5,889
10,861
10,844
10,862
10,810
10,626
10,317
10,038
South Huntington
5,938
5,976
6,019
5,990
6,007
6,041
5,986
West Babylon
4,678
4,519
4,484
4,360
4,292
4,199
4,121
Wyandanch
1,919
1,939
2,042
2,007
2,046
2,020
2, 111
89,995
89,532
89,158
88,591
87,435
86,090
84,609
-0.5%
-0.4%
-0.6%
-1.3%
-1 .5%
-1 .7%
Half Hollow Hills
Smithtown
K-12
%Change
Page 4of12
Western Suffolk BOCES Component District Historical Enrollment
12,000
• 2007
• 2008
•2010
• 2009
02011
c:: i 2013
• 2012
~
10,000
-
8,000
!----
s.ooo
I
-
-
""'
--
4,000
2,000
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2013/14 Western Suffolk BOCES - Component District Enrollment
Grade:
District:
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Sp Ed
K- 12
Amityville
F
263
263
250
220
211
209
231
189
216
234
260
232
241
22
3,041
Babylon
F
111
109
102
130
124
123
135
146
155
125
116
134
132
8
1,650
Cold Spring Harbor
F
75
106
127
128
148
143
146
179
169
166
157
155
171
2
1,872
Com mack
F
386
378
475
464
517
522
576
579
579
587
635
624
609
35
6,966
Copiague
F
360
405
377
364
331
384
352
394
346
445
419
347
333
20
4,877
Deer Park
F
308
294
300
273
288
297
332
314
350
318
330
361
346
46
4,157
Elwood
H
124
163
156
191
182
189
176
191
205
204
197
202
205
18
2,403
Half Hollow Hills
F
490
515
533
583
656
727
667
708
865
812
802
861
798
137
9,154
K
Harbortields
H
228
220
200
221
247
298
227
283
299
267
303
292
261
26
3,372
Huntington
H
336
363
341
336
355
315
349
335
346
373
315
276
290
38
4,368
Kings Park
F
187
237
224
239
288
266
290
328
315
327
289
310
338
25
3,663
Lindenhurst
F
424
443
412
474
423
449
421
492
503
551
552
504
540
69
6,257
North Babylon
F
338
365
326
313
355
338
358
353
371
412
383
369
381
22
4,684
H
269
367
365
430
438
453
486
488
547
451
519
499
547
30
5,889
Smithtown
F
582
611
667
681
760
763
818
835
845
826
819
871
897
63
10,038
South Huntington
F
433
474
511
440
435
462
462
429
478
513
462
440
401
46
5,986
West Babylon
F
264
308
296
299
334
306
303
308
308
324
362
329
356
24
4,121
Wyandanch
F
228
207
205
193
159
145
150
158
134
154
138
86
116
38
2,111
5,406
5,828
5,867
5,979
6,251
6,389
6,479
6, 709
7,031
7,089
7,058
6,892
6,962
669
84,609
TOTAL
Note:**= F (Full Day Kindergarten), H (Half Day Kindergarten)
Count of Districts with Full Day Kindergarten: 14of18 districts
Page 6of12
Grade:
District:
....
K
Amityville
F
262
Babylon
F
Cold Spring Harbor
F
Com mack
Copiague
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
SpEd
K-12
242
228
210
203
227
194
207
208
241
234
233
224
28
2,941
103
102
130
122
124
140
149
159
140
119
134
136
125
9
1,692
93
122
126
144
140
147
176
162
181
157
152
173
163
2
1,938
F
362
470
455
510
516
571
578
586
597
635
629
606
640
30
7,185
F
403
370
373
340
386
352
377
349
355
424
383
337
366
14
4,829
Deer Park
F
284
304
287
286
301
350
316
346
324
330
352
343
347
36
4,206
Elwood
H
152
153
190
184
184
175
178
204
221
196
204
205
213
19
2,478
Half Hollow Hills
F
490
514
569
658
721
665
704
867
833
803
858
797
831
117
9,427
Harbortields
H
194
189
218
248
291
226
282
295
297
306
289
263
299
21
3,418
Huntington
H
336
358
336
364
324
348
319
331
341
368
310
280
317
35
4,367
Kings Park
F
238
222
231
283
267
285
327
314
348
290
309
338
297
23
3,772
Lindenhurst
F
454
421
479
434
458
419
496
498
531
584
529
527
540
59
6,429
North Babylon
F
359
346
311
359
342
363
343
364
398
413
376
370
404
21
4,769
H
290
360
415
438
450
483
485
541
455
518
501
548
544
34
6,062
Smithtown
F
600
657
678
750
755
824
831
859
859
824
867
889
857
67
10,317
South Huntington
F
463
526
455
442
456
466
446
478
490
498
460
409
412
40
6,041
West Babylon
F
318
290
297
335
301
295
304
305
328
349
323
384
347
23
4,199
Wyandanch
F
210
196
201
172
146
144
169
146
134
126
118
133
94
31
2,020
5,611
5,842
5,979
6,279
6,365
6,480
6,674
7,011
7,040
7,181
7,028
6,971
7,020
609
86,090
TOTAL
Note:••= F (Full Day Kindergarten). H (Half Day Kindergarten)
Page 7of 12
District:
..
Amityville
F
230
Babylon
F
Cold Spring Harbor
Com mack
Grade:
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Sp Ed
K-12
234
210
199
213
196
194
209
232
212
224
232
234
27
2,846
97
131
125
129
134
141
158
137
141
135
138
123
146
8
1,743
F
113
118
133
138
144
174
157
173
160
159
171
164
172
2
1,978
F
454
457
514
511
564
573
586
589
655
622
609
644
595
25
7,398
401
402
367
354
314
15
4,756
K
Copiague
F
379
362
351
385
343
379
353
351
Deer Park
F
288
281
279
292
345
309
339
322
330
350
344
334
328
26
4,167
Elwood
H
132
200
188
183
174
185
202
224
213
209
212
211
208
15
2,556
Half Hollow Hills
F
505
556
650
702
660
702
867
824
834
848
788
817
761
119
9,653
Harborfields
H
188
228
247
282
234
281
297
295
321
289
261
305
283
17
3,528
Huntington
H
340
343
372
336
358
317
333
342
352
354
319
290
275
27
4,358
Kings Park
F
224
232
277
275
284
326
311
349
303
302
335
294
318
23
3,853
Lindenhurst
F
424
488
433
457
419
481
503
527
547
559
555
522
607
55
6,577
387
398
21
4,831
6,220
North Babylon
F
343
317
359
336
353
334
380
403
391
414
395
H
297
410
445
447
483
482
546
454
528
490
548
530
525
35
Smithtown
F
654
673
757
759
820
833
859
871
856
880
900
857
849
58
10,626
South Huntington
F
522
453
443
466
454
444
478
478
467
496
415
432
421
38
6,007
West Babylon
F
296
306
329
302
295
295
310
330
358
325
357
388
375
26
4,292
Wyandanch
F
207
196
183
169
152
174
151
142
137
119
179
117
85
35
2,046
5,693
5,985
6,295
6,368
6,429
6,626
7,024
7,020
7,226
7,165
7,117
7,001
6,914
572
87,435
TOTAL
Note: ••
=F (Full Day Kindergarten), H (Half Day Kindergarten)
Count of Districts with Full Day Kindergarten: 14 of 18 districts
Page B of 12
(Data Contained in the Student lnfonnation Repository System, S/RS-313 Summary)
Grade:
District:
2
K
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Sp Ed
K-12
Amityville
F
223
210
182
211
202
204
217
219
196
222
246
237
211
0
2,780
Babylon
F
127
126
129
131
144
152
137
142
149
144
126
143
135
3
1,788
Cold Spring Harbor
F
109
126
132
139
170
155
173
155
167
170
167
168
168
2
2,001
Com mack
F
453
511
498
565
572
583
592
646
631
612
644
608
594
0
7,509
Copiague
F
359
335
383
347
363
347
344
387
363
404
392
330
357
9
4,720
Deer Park
F
288
280
301
347
315
341
311
341
361
331
339
348
303
0
4,206
182
185
213
Elwood
F
201
187
184
197
227
222
207
218
213
202
5
2,643
Half Hollow Hills
F
549
620
595
656
699
869
835
844
872
785
820
773
777
88
9,782
Harborfields
H
212
249
278
236
279
298
289
321
314
255
306
288
290
15
3,630
Huntington
F
354
389
360
364
337
338
339
351
356
366
343
275
286
0
4,458
Kings Park
F
217
289
272
281
322
308
346
305
314
334
302
323
310
0
3,923
Lindenhurst
F
467
451
461
420
474
500
533
555
531
589
570
597
597
15
6,760
4,856
North Babylon
F
327
362
332
356
334
380
404
390
395
413
401
388
374
0
H
355
439
443
482
478
540
459
526
504
556
526
515
517
28
6,368
Smithtown
F
670
759
759
820
833
859
879
870
894
907
880
854
815
11
10,810
South Huntington
F
437
455
476
469
434
480
482
465
459
452
463
452
438
28
5,990
West Babylon
F
300
335
298
290
294
321
332
361
342
360
374
411
342
0
4,360
Wyandanch
F
TOTAL
191
193
174
157
183
156
139
143
124
140
163
131
104
9
2,007
5,839
6,316
6,257
6,453
6,618
7,028
7,038
7,234
7,194
7,247
7,280
7,054
6,820
213
88,591
Note: ** = F (Full Day Kindergarten), H (Half Day Kindergarten)
Page 9of12
Grade:
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Sp Ed
K-12
Amityville
F
211
171
204
195
196
220
208
220
197
230
242
198
204
0
2,696
Babylon
F
120
132
131
141
148
139
138
143
153
133
142
137
148
2
1,807
Cold Spring Harbor
F
110
120
128
165
153
169
150
168
189
161
170
169
166
0
2,018
Com mack
F
498
499
563
568
584
595
653
634
621
646
614
594
602
0
7,671
Copiague
F
333
376
348
349
344
351
369
356
342
405
366
376
344
4
4,663
Deer Park
F
278
296
338
297
332
301
336
351
323
336
347
317
336
8
4,196
Elwood
F
182
183
174
175
195
223
216
220
217
222
220
199
190
0
2,616
10,037
District:
K
Half Hollow Hills
F
607
690
647
691
851
805
816
862
820
804
765
786
777
116
Harborfields
H
232
275
229
275
289
292
319
319
266
298
291
291
278
10
3,664
Huntington
F
397
374
374
349
354
343
344
348
335
382
310
268
267
0
4,445
Kings Park
H
251
270
277
316
301
338
302
318
350
302
309
308
296
17
3,955
Lindenhurst
F
453
457
425
465
488
514
547
525
558
579
610
570
598
21
6,810
North Babylon
F
346
333
348
331
367
384
379
391
398
404
400
360
399
0
4,840
H
343
429
465
481
530
457
526
507
559
516
509
511
500
0
6,333
Smithtown
F
757
762
812
827
849
859
855
892
940
876
858
807
768
0
10,862
South Huntington
F
457
469
459
444
482
480
467
452
437
476
450
459
456
31
6,019
West Babylon
F
336
303
287
291
324
335
359
354
363
374
392
380
385
Wyandanch
F
208
190
163
189
165
152
142
120
150
189
141
134
99
0
2,042
6,119
6,329
6,372
6,549
6,952
6,957
7,126
7,180
7,218
7,333
7,136
6,864
6,813
210
89,158
TOTAL
Note: ••
4,484
= F (Full Day Kindergarten), H (Half Day Kindergarten)
Page 10of12
-
District:
Grade:
K
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Sp Ed
K- 12
F
171
201
183
192
208
205
196
212
215
259
207
193
180
0
2,622
Babylon
F
127
127
146
148
146
143
144
149
144
150
137
150
142
2
1,855
Cold Spring Harbor
F
114
121
159
149
161
148
167
187
168
173
175
166
175
2
2,065
Com mack
F
511
559
571
587
616
657
626
629
651
616
610
611
586
0
7,830
363
352
334
364
390
384
354
345
4
4,592
Amityville
Copiague
F
346
336
342
341
337
Deer Park
F
297
344
308
325
296
338
350
321
348
348
325
336
335
6
4,277
Elwood
H
181
172
175
196
223
218
215
212
210
223
206
187
195
0
2,613
Half Hollow Hills
F
691
626
680
838
791
810
858
825
860
758
776
779
719
87
10,098
Harborfields
H
252
231
282
280
293
313
320
270
314
289
289
276
266
11
3,686
Huntington
F
363
392
346
369
367
338
314
329
360
346
310
278
272
0
4,384
311
315
305
322
0
4,057
Kings Park
H
261
2n
319
298
344
311
315
351
328
Lindenhurst
F
444
418
457
488
522
539
527
546
564
624
585
600
610
2
6,926
North Babylon
F
320
345
317
363
376
378
380
395
399
419
378
428
341
0
4,839
H
364
461
480
527
450
512
506
550
528
509
505
489
529
0
6,410
Smithtown
F
729
786
820
836
844
829
891
931
911
850
810
771
773
63
10,844
South Huntington
F
464
476
444
480
478
454
455
434
452
488
449
455
419
28
5,976
4,519
West Babylon
F
317
282
293
322
333
350
344
367
379
391
369
384
386
2
Wyandanch
F
178
161
196
171
163
141
125
143
122
197
136
116
90
0
1,939
6,130
6,315
6,518
6,910
6,948
7,047
7,085
7,185
7,317
7,341
6,966
6,878
6,685
207
89,532
TOTAL
Note:**= F (Full Day Kindergarten), H (Half Day Kindergarten)
Page 11 of12
2007108 Western Suffolk BOCES - Component District Enrollment
Grade:
District:
**
K
Amityville
F
186
Babylon
F
Cold Spring Harbor
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
185
186
213
204
192
213
210
226
281
218
128
142
143
143
138
145
148
144
158
141
H
107
141
140
156
142
159
180
172
176
Com mack
F
547
565
574
584
639
619
628
646
Copiague
F
310
330
326
338
354
319
333
Deer Park
F
322
297
322
277
323
346
Elwood
H
167
169
191
223
211
213
Half Hollow Hills
F
624
678
835
778
803
852
Harborfields
H
207
277
277
291
311
318
Huntington
F
394
350
364
347
330
312
Kings Park
H
276
302
298
340
313
Lindenhurst
F
417
462
475
510
North Babylon
F
352
342
346
H
375
488
Smithtown
F
759
South Huntington
F
476
West Babylon
F
Wyandanch
F
TOTAL
11
12
Sp Ed
K-12
219
183
0
2,716
148
144
158
176
167
172
177
0
2,065
613
597
618
595
529
0
7,754
355
320
397
391
345
312
203
4,633
322
334
344
332
336
343
301
4
4,203
209
216
219
204
184
213
204
0
2,623
812
851
762
765
777
727
776
102
10,142
271
316
299
292
283
267
280
15
3,704
351
344
324
323
·303
279
271
0
4,292
344
341
327
342
307
300
330
328
4
4,152
519
528
535
556
605
608
629
588
571
378
376
370
405
405
402
405
423
370
.344
0
4,918
523
456
522
504
561
524
533
509
490
526
501
0
6,512
809
827
843
826
860
928
903
883
810
760
769
806
78
10,861
449
472
477
442
447
432
449
455
507
474
429
429
0
5,938
303
304
328
338
358
350
370
379
394
365
378
393
417
168
186
179
169
147
138
140
125
145
157
170
94
101
0
1,919
6,118
6,476
6,806
6,861
6,958
7,016
7,179
7,256
7,200
7,176
7,049
6,803
6,688
409
89,995
1,881
7,004
4,678
Note: •• = F (Full Day Kindergarten), H (Half Day Kindergarten)
Page 12of12
(Data Contained in the Student lnformafjon Repository System, SIRS-313 Summary)
WESTERN SUFFOLK BOCES
NASSAU - SUFFOLK
BI-COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
2007-2016
Prepared by Western Suffolk BOCES, Division of Instructional Support Services
April2014
-
\\ktem 'uft..!k
Western Suffolk BOCES
Board of Cooperative Educational Services
of Western Suffolk County, New York
Ms. Maryann Zumpano, President
Ms. Ilene Herz, Esq., Vice President
Ms. Mildred Browne
Mr. Sydney Finkelstein
Mr. Salvatore Marinello
Ms. Jeannette Santos
Mr. Peter Wunsch
Ms. Joan Johnson, District Clerk
Administration
Dr. Michael Mensch ...................... Deputy Superintendent and Chief Operating Officer
Maureen Donohue Whitley .............................................................. District Superintendent
Paula Klingelhoefer............................ Executive Director, lnsbuctional Support Services
Joan E. Townley ............................ Coordinator, Office of School Planning and Research
Office of School Planning & Research
Division of Instructional Support Services
31 Lee Avenue
Wheatley Heights, New York 11798
Tel: 631/595-6802
Fax: 631/623-4913
Dear Colleagues,
April 2014
We are pleased to provide you with The Annual Bi-COunty Nassau/Suffolk Public School Enrollment Report that has been compiled by the Office of
School Planning and Research of Western Suffolk BOCES. This document provides you with information about historical enrollments (2007-2013} in the
Long Island counties as well as projected enrollments through 2016.
Public School Enrollment
Public school enrollment on long Island has declined by 4.0 percent since 2007; 3.0 percent in Nassau County and 4.7 percent in Suffolk County.
Projections suggest an additional 3.9 percent decline in the region over the next three years. Since 2007, the elementary enrollment declined 4.6 percent,
with an even greater decrease (S.8 percent) in the middle grades (6 - 8). The high school grades (9 - 12) saw a decrease of 2.8 percent. An additional 4.2
percent loss at the elementary grades is expected by 2016; an additional 3.4 percent loss is expected at the middle grades. Losses at the high school level
(9 - 12) are expected to continue in the coming years as the smaller elementary and middle level cohorts reach the secondary schools. Since 2006, smaller
incoming kindergarten classes have replaced larger exiting twelfth grade classes. This trend is expected to continue; however, at least through 2016,
displacement will be more significant than what was seen from 2007 - 2013.
Enrollment in public schools is affected by demographic factors. These factors include the number of children being born in the area, economic and
housing trends, non-public school enrollments and immigration/migration patterns.
Population Changes
Long Island experienced significant population increases in the 1990's. Since then, the population has continued to grow, but at a significantly slower
pace. While the population in the United States increased 12.3 percent between 2000 and 2013, it is estimated that Long Island's population grew by 3.6
percent; Nassau grew by only 1.3 percent, while Suffolk grew by 5.7 percent. However, between 2010 and 2013, Nassau County's population grew by 0.9
percent while Suffolk County's population increased only 0.4 percent. Domestic out-migration (people leaving New York State for other states) was offset
by foreign immigration and natural increases (births minus deaths). In contrast to this population growth, overall public school enrollment on long Island
has been decreasing each year since the peak K-12 enrollment of 471,402 students in 2004. This trend is expected to continue.
Long Island's population has experienced demographic changes. Both Nassau and Suffolk Counties saw a decline in the number of children under the
age of five between 2000 and 2010. In 2000, 6.5 percent of Nassau's population was under five years of age; in 2010, 5.5 percent were in this age group.
In Suffolk County, 7.1 percent of the population was reported as under five years of age in 2000; in 2010 this group shrunk to S.8 percent of the
population. The study also found significant increases in the percentage of the population over age SS. Since the 2000 Census, the median age of Long
Islanders has increased. Nassau County's median age in 2000 was 38.5 years but rose to 41.1 years in 2010; Suffolk County noted an increase from 36.5
years in 2000 to 39.8 years in 2010. The 2010 median age in both counties is higher than New York State's median age {38 years) and the nation's (37.2
years).
The number of babies born yearly in the United States appears to be leveling off, after declining since 2007. Births have been decreasing on long
Island since the 1990's and are expected to plateau at a lower level. The economy has been cited as a partial reason for the continuing decreases in births
as couples may have postponed having children until the economy improves. This has contributed to the declines in the number of pre-school and early
school-age children.
Immigration
Immigration is a large contributor to population growth. According to the 2012 American Community Survey, the foreign-born in the United States
accounts for 13.0 percent of the total population. More than half of these immigrants were born in Latin America. Those that are foreign born represent
approximately 22.6 percent of the population in New York State, while residents who were born outside the country made up 21.9 percent of the
population in Nassau County and 15.1 percent in Suffolk County. Of the foreign-born residents, 51.0 percent in Nassau County and 58.5 percent in Suffolk
County were born in Latin America; 29.9 percent of the foreign-born in Nassau County and 19.9 percent of the foreign born in Suffolk County were born in
Asia. On Long Island, an increasing percentage of foreign-born residents reported that a language other than English is spoken at home when compared to
information reported in the 2000 Census. Districts may need to make programmatic adjustments to meet the needs of the growing population of bilingual
and English as a Second Language students.
Housing Market
Economic conditions continue to impact Long Island's housing market. Over the past seven years, financial turmoil, high taxes and sluggish home
sales have been evident in both Nassau and Suffolk Counties. Homes on Long Island sold at record levels until 2006. Since then, the housing market has
fallen off significantly, causing property values to decline. In April 2007, the median home price in Nassau County was $487,000; in February 2014, it had
fallen to $397,500. In Suffolk County the median home price fell from $431,000 in 2007 to $303,500 in February 2014. Housing prices are not expected to
significantly increase and may stagnate well into the middle of this decade. We have seen that changes in the housing market have had a significant
impact on school enrollment.
Together, these factors will impact your school district. The best way to address them is to be aware of the trends that are developing in your
immediate locale. By studying historical, as well as recent enrollment and demographic trends, you can best prepare your school district for the future.
Western Suffolk BOCES is available to support you in long-range planning by offering experienced, objective assistance in the following areas:
~
Demographics - an analysis of population, births, housing, resident characteristics and non-public school enrollment.
~
Enrollment - an analysis of historical enrollment trends and future enrollment projections for the district as a whole, for
specific grade sub-sets, and for individual schools.
~
Facilities - an analysis of each facility's capacity with an assessment of the impact of projected enrollment on future facility
utilization and program delivery.
Future Organization - a presentation of options, suited to district policy, allowing for equity in districts' schools, continued
program excellence and implementation of educational goals.
~
Please call our office (631-595-6802) if you would like to discuss our services and how it may promote your district's goals.
Paula Klingelhoefer
Joan E. Townley
Paula Klingelhoefer, Executive Director
Joan E. Townley, School Planning Coordinator
Long Island Region K - 12 Public School Enrollment,
2007 - 2016
500.000
480,000
460,000
:!:.I
;tj"
±:1
ti-.
f...
..,.
ii
~
-:d
'"-f
440,000
15
j
E
:::0
z
420,000
400,000
380,000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Year
Bi-County K -12 Public School Enrollment, 2007- 2016
300,000 I -- -- - - - - -
280,000
Suffolk County
260,000
:I
~~---------~--"""""""---240,000
~
"S
220.000
j
E
::0
:z:
200,000
. . . .
~-
-
-
w
--
•
•
-..
•
Nassau county
180,000
160,000 - 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Year
Nassau-Suffolk Public School Enrollment, 2007- 2016
Page 1 of10
Source: New York State Education Department
Note: 2013114 enrollment data is preliminary.
Long Island Region Public School Enrollment, 2007 - 2016
K-5
21t,ODO
-.1111,oao
.
111.-
..c
17a.aao
c
.E
15
c
~
iii
1eo,aao
190,0GO
140,000
-
-
-
2010
21111
21H2
813
a14
2011
ail
y-
6-8
9 -12
11s.aao
1IO,OOll
-
110,aao
105,llllO
,,-.
.----
190,ICKI
- -
- -- -
100,0GI
95,aao
.
140,0GO
1!
I
13G,aGI
i
120,00ll
!
iii
I
90,aao
110,oao
15.aao
1oe.-
eo,aao
•
21187
-.._.
I
J-
L,
2011
2011
?
J
llW...J
k,,,,,,I
F
21H2
21113
2914
:11115
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Vear
Page 2of10
l
W:: J
2911
IO,OGO
211111
-
2009
a10
2011
.,_
2111!
2013
2014
2015
2011
NASSAU/SUFFOLK HISTORICAL PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
GRADE
Oct- 07
Oct- 08
Oct- 09
KINDERGARTEN
FIRST
SECOND
THIRD
FOURTH
FIFTH
SIXTH
SEVENTH
EIGHTH
NINTH
TENTH
ELEVENTH
TWELFTH
UNGRADED
TOTAL
%CHANGE
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct- 13
31,662
32,739
34,239
34,352
34,505
34,832
36, 120
36,729
36,903
37,626
37,773
36,326
35,545
2,187
31,909
32,854
32,845
34,553
34,576
34,720
35,187
36,330
36,938
38,170
36,938
36,508
35,292
1,866
31,678
33,127
32,948
33, 119
34,823
34,841
35,048
35,586
36,652
38,281
37,446
35,911
35,767
1,935
30,703
32,709
33,270
33,284
33,426
35,140
35,218
35,440
35,931
37,952
37,758
36,750
35,615
2,147
31,148
31,519
32,715
33,348
33,318
33,585
35,239
35,289
35,486
36,512
36,998
36,380
35,984
2,998
30,788
32,044
31,656
32,720
33,419
33,392
33,780
35,453
35,418
36,139
35,967
36,132
36,165
3,334
30,702
31,705
32,243
31,805
32,941
33,659
33,712
34,012
35,616
36,120
35,865
35,301
35,873
3,594
461,538
458,686
-0.6%
457,162
-0.3%
455,343
-0.4%
450,519
-1.1%
446,407
-0.9%
443, 148
-0.7%
Oct- 11
Oct- 12
Oct- 13
NASSAU/SUFFOLK HISTORICAL PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT (excluding ungraded}
Oct- 10
Oct- 07
Oct- 08
Oct- 09
GRADE
K-5
%CHANGE
202,329
201,457
-0.4%
200,536
-0.5%
198,532
-1.0%
195,633
-1 .5%
194,019
-0.8%
193,055
-0.5%
6-8
% CHANGE
109,752
108,455
-1.2%
107,286
-1 .1%
106,589
-0.6%
106,014
-0.5%
104,651
-1.3%
103,340
-1.3%
9-12
% CHANGE
147,270
146,908
-0.2%
147,405
0.3%
148,075
0.5%
145,874
-1.5%
144,403
-1.0%
143,159
-0.9%
Page 3of10
Source: New Yori< State Education Department
NASSAU/SUFFOLK PROJECTED PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
GRADE
Oct-13
actual
30,702
KINDERGARTEN
31,705
FIRST
32,243
SECOND
THIRD
31,805
32,941
FOURTH
33,659
FIFTH
33,712
SIXTH
34,012
SEVENTH
35,616
EIGHTH
36,120
NINTH
35,865
TENTH
35,301
ELEVENTH
35,873
lWELFTH
3,594
UNGRADED
TOTAL
%CHANGE
443, 148
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
29,703
31,585
31,822
32,323
31,912
33,098
33,863
33,881
34,120
36,260
35,545
34,927
34,902
3,548
28,899
30,562
31,710
31,902
32,433
32,064
33,300
34,032
33,990
34,738
35,685
34,613
34,531
3,502
28,065
29,733
30,688
31,796
32,011
32,590
32,260
33,467
34,141
34,604
34,186
34,752
34,218
3,454
437,489
-1 .3%
431,961
-1.3%
425,965
-1.4%
Oct-15
Oct-16
NASSAU/SUFFOLK PROJECTED PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT (excluding ungraded)
Oct-14
Oct-13
GRADE
actual
K-5
%CHANGE
193,055
190,443
-1 .4%
187,570
-1.5%
184,883
-1 .4%
6-8
%CHANGE
103,340
101,864
-1 .4%
101,322
-0.5%
99,868
-1.4%
9-12
%CHANGE
143,159
141,634
-1.1%
139,567
-1.5%
137,760
-1.3%
Nassau-Suffolk P ublic School Enrollment, 2007- 2016
Page 4of10
So urce: New Yorlc. State Education Department
Nassau County Public School Enrollment, 2007 - 2016
K-5
IO,DOO
n.aoo
~
·17,000
·I
E
'5
c
w
15,0GO
......
13,llOll
12,000
2D07
-
llll,DOO
--
20fO
2012
21111
6-8
lOtS
201•
9-12
··-
------
17,0IO
··I
a.ooo
"7,0GO
te
··.
e
~
i:i
i
10t4
y-
O,DOO
3
21113
Ji
-
i"
45,0IO
'5,11111
M,Dll
l3,0IO
ii
...
a.a.
.:1,DOO
111,0GO
IO,Dll
42.000
2f1ll1
200I
-
2010
2011
2012
YMr
Nassau-Suffolk Public School Enrollment, 2007- 201c
Page 5 of10
2013
2014
2015
21111
-1 -
21111
21110
2011
2Cttl
2011
lllM
Lt
211'1S
2'1•
YNr
Source: New York. Slate Education Department
Note: 2013114 enroHment data is preliminary.
NASSAU COUNTY HISTORICAL PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
Oct- 08
GRADE
Oct- 07
Oct- 09
KINDERGARTEN
FIRST
SECOND
THIRD
FOURTH
FIFTH
SIXTH
SEVENTH
EIGHTH
NINTH
TENTH
ELEVENTH
TWELFTH
UNGRADED
TOTAL
% CHANGE
Oct - 10
Oct-11
Oct- 12
Oct-13
13,619
14,141
15,122
15,057
15,249
15,459
16,245
16,489
16,605
16,719
17,038
16,325
16,158
1,174
13,666
14,482
14,284
15,350
15, 187
15,376
15,678
16,397
16,629
17,097
16,526
16,567
15,831
1,007
13,688
14,440
14,627
14,474
15,582
15,379
15,587
15,857
16,587
17,243
16,763
16,132
16,212
990
13,408
14,304
14,649
14,816
14,708
15,733
15,593
15,769
16,108
17, 162
16,959
16,635
16,108
1,173
13,601
13,909
14,483
14,774
14,923
14,875
15,825
15,653
15,861
16,341
16,704
16,441
16,426
1,237
13,743
14,293
14,143
14,624
14,931
15,064
15,033
15,954
15,737
16,160
16, 149
16,400
16,492
1,420
14,013
14,172
14,462
14,283
14,807
15,069
15,242
15,121
16,092
15,914
16,091
15,956
16,366
1,568
205,400
204,077
-0.6%
203,561
-0.3%
203,125
-0.2%
201,053
-1.0%
200,143
-0.5%
199,156
-0.5%
Oct-11
Oct- 12
Oct- 13
NASSAU COUNTY HISTORICAL PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT (excluding ungraded)
Oct- 07
Oct- 09
Oct- 08
Oct- 10
GRADE
K-5
%CHANGE
88,647
88,345
-0.3%
88,190
-0.2%
87,618
-0.6%
86,565
-1.2%
86,798
0.3%
86,806
0.0%
6-8
%CHANGE
49,339
48,704
-1.3%
48,031
-1.4%
47,470
-1.2%
47,339
-0.3%
46,724
-1.3%
46,455
-0.6%
9- 12
% CHANGE
66,240
66,021
-0.3%
66,350
0.5%
66,864
0.8%
65,912
-1.4%
65,201
-1.1%
64,327
-1.3%
Page 6of 10
Note: 2013"14 enrollment data is preliminary.
NASSAU COUNTY PROJECTED PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
GRADE
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
KINDERGARTEN
FIRST
SECOND
THIRD
FOURTH
FIFTH
SIXTH
SEVENTH
EIGHTH
NINTH
actual
14,013
14,172
14,462
14,283
14,807
15,069
15,242
15,121
16,092
15,914
13,798
14,571
14,366
14,598
14,428
14,955
15,211
15,333
15,221
16,331
13,344
14,347
14,771
14,501
14,746
14,572
15,096
15,302
15,434
15,447
TENTH
ELEVENTH
TWELFTH
UNGRADED
16,091
15,956
16,366
1,568
15,687
15,765
15,895
1,557
16,099
15,370
15,704
1,545
13,230
13,875
14,544
14,910
14,648
14,894
14,709
15,186
15,403
15,663
15,227
15,773
15,311
1,535
TOTAL
% CHANGE
199,156
197,716
-0.7%
196,278
-0.7%
194,908
-0.7%
NASSAU COUNTY PROJECTED PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT (excluding ungraded)
GRADE
Oct-13
Oct-14
actual
K-5
86,806
86,716
% CHANGE
-0.1%
Oct-15
Oct-16
86,281
-0.5%
86,101
-0.2%
6-8
% CHANGE
46,455
45,765
-1.5%
45,832
0.1%
45,298
-1.2%
9 -12
% CHANGE
64,327
63,678
-1.0%
62,620
-1.7%
61,974
-1.0%
Nassau-Suffolk Public SchO-OI Enrollment. 2007- 2016
Page 7of10
Source: New Yorlc Slate Education Department
Suffolk County Public School Enrollment, 2007 - 2016
K-5
120,0GG
-
--
11a,OGG
110,0GG
i
105.000
£
Ci
i5
i
1001008
'g
...
;;;
!IO,OGG
15,0GG
ID,000
20ll7
200I
2008
21110
21111
21112
2013
2014
2111'
2011
YNr
9-12
6-8
12,008 --
114,uDO
ID,llOll
11.-
--
71,000
111,0IG
i
7S,tlCIO
54,000
eiii
72.000
52,0IG
ijl
....
so.-
IB,llOO
41,0GG
13,-
4&,llllO
2ll07
-
-
2010
21111
2012
vNassau-Suffolk Public School Enrollment, 2007- 2016
Page 8of10
2913
2014
2015
21111
--
_.,
-
2001
2011
21111
2012
2111a
21114
:2115
20111
vSource: New York State Education Department
SUFFOLK COUNTY HISTORICAL PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
GRADE
Oct- 07
Oct- 08
Oct- 09
KINDERGARTEN
FIRST
SECOND
THIRD
FOURTH
FIFTH
SIXTH
SEVENTH
EIGHTH
NINTH
TENTH
ELEVENTH
TWELFTH
UNGRADED
TOTAL
% CHANGE
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct- 12
Oct- 13
18,043
18,598
19, 117
19,295
19,256
19,373
19,875
20,240
20,298
20,907
20,735
20,001
19,387
1,013
18,243
18,372
18,561
19,203
19,389
19,344
19,509
19,933
20,309
21,073
20,412
19,941
19,461
859
17,990
18,687
18,321
18,645
19,241
19,462
19,461
19,729
20,065
21,038
20,683
19,779
19,555
945
17,295
18,405
18,621
18,468
18,718
19,407
19,625
19,671
19,823
20,790
20,799
20,115
19,507
974
17,547
17,610
18,232
18,574
18,395
18,710
19,414
19,636
19,625
20,171
20,294
19,939
19,558
1,761
17,045
17,751
17,513
18,096
18,488
18,328
18,747
19,499
19,681
19,979
19,818
19,732
19,673
1,914
16,689
17,533
17,781
17,522
18,134
18,590
18,470
18,891
19,524
20,206
19,774
19,345
19,507
2,026
256,138
254,609
-0.6%
253,601
-0.4%
252,218
-0.5%
249,466
-1.1%
246,264
-1.3%
243,992
-0.9%
Oct- 11
Oct-12
Oct- 13
SUFFOLK COUNTY HISTORICAL PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT (excluding ungraded)
GRADE
Oct- 07
Oct- 08
Oct- 09
Oct-10
K-5
% CHANGE
113,682
113,112
-0.5%
112,346
-0.7%
110,914
-1 .3%
109,068
-1 .7%
107,221
-1 .7%
106,249
-0.9%
6-8
% CHANGE
60,413
59,751
-1.1%
59,255
-0.8%
59,119
-0.2%
58,675
-0.8%
57,927
-1.3%
56,885
-1.8%
9 - 12
% CHANGE
81,030
80,887
-0.2%
81,055
0.2%
81,211
0.2%
79,962
-1.5%
79,202
-1.0%
78,832
-0.5%
Page 9of 10
SUFFOLK COUNTY PROJECTED PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
GRADE
Oct-13
actual
KINDERGARTEN
16,689
FIRST
17,533
SECOND
17,781
THIRD
17,522
FOURTH
18,134
18,590
FIFTH
SIXTH
18,470
18,891
SEVENTH
19,524
EIGHTH
20,206
NINTH
19,774
TENTH
19,345
ELEVENTH
lWELFTH
19,507
2,026
UNGRADED
TOTAL
%CHANGE
243,992
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
15,905
17,014
17,456
17,725
17,484
18,143
18,652
18,548
18,899
19,929
19,858
19,162
19,007
1,991
15,555
16,215
16,939
17,401
17,687
17,492
18,204
18,730
18,556
19,291
19,586
19,243
18,827
1,957
14,835
15,858
16,144
16,886
17,363
17,696
17,551
18,281
18,738
18,941
18,959
18,979
18,907
1,919
239,773
-1.7%
235,683
-1.7%
231,057
-2.0%
Oct-15
Oct-16
101,289
-2.4%
98,782
-2.5%
SUFFOLK COUNTY PROJECTED PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT (excluding ungraded)
Oct-14
Oct-13
GRADE
actual
103,727
106,249
K-5
-2.4%
%CHANGE
6-8
%CHANGE
56,885
56,099
-1.4%
55,490
-1.1%
54,570
-1.7%
9 -12
% CHANGE
78,832
77,956
-1 .1%
76,947
-1.3%
75,786
-1.5%
Page 10of10
Source: New Yori< State Education Department

Western Suffolk BOCES - Huntington Public Schools

Transcription

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