Mountain Torrent Disaster reduction in China
Transcription
Mountain Torrent Disaster reduction in China
Mountain Torrent Disaster reduction in China HUANG, Jinchi Chief Engineer hjc@iwhr.com Research Center on Flood & Drought Disaster Reduction, MWR CONTENS Status of the mountain torrent flood disasters in China Challenge we are facing for mountain torrent flood management What we are doing Characteristics of the flash flood Forecasting is not so easy The damage caused by flash flood is impressive Developing very fast Normal situation 15 Minutes later Damage induced by mountainous flood disaster (1) most of the casualties caused by flood is owing to the mountainous flood. Based on the statistical data from 1950∼2000,the death caused by flood is 263 thousands, of which mountainous flood induced is 180 thousands, 68.4%. a more recent statistics on the data from 2000-2010 shows the ratio of the mountainous flood induced death is still in increase as in the fig.. Damage induced by mountainous flood disaster (2) with the economical development, the damage induced by mountainous flood is also increased in recent years. Based on the statistical data from 1950 ∼1990, the damaged cultivated land is about 3million ha. and collapsed house 800 thousands .But from 1990∼2000 the damaged cultivated land increased to 5.4 million ha.,and the collapsed houses increased to 110 million. Two typical flash flood disasters occurred in China June 10, 2005, Shalan township, Helongjiang province in China, a flash flood induced over 100 casualties Aug. 7, 2010, intensive rainfall induced debris flow inundated the Zhouqu county, Gansu Province and induced over 1700 casualties. Structure works for mountainous flood disaster reduction ① ② ③ ④ ⑤ Reservoirs in up-streams: over 80,000, play a very important role for mountainous flood disaster reduction. Dikes: based on the national standard to the downtown area, some protection dikes had been built for the protection of the concerned people and properties. Check dam for debris flow in small river basin. Forestation. River training(it is a little different from large river system, river channel stability, dike protection) An efficient measure of soil erosion control Check dam system for controlling of the soil erosion in the loess plateau. In a relatively closed small watershed, the soil erosion is keep equilibrium and the damages induced by flash flood is effectively reduced Flood control measure-leveesusually 20 years return period cities development—water requirement--near the river systems--tolerate flooding, or protection cities from flooding. After much debate regarding levees and other methods of flood protection, the policy that led to the construction of levees for local protection was developed. Population density is very high! Flood Control Methods-RESERVOIRS Over 80000 reservoirs are built in upstream of those rivers with flash flood often occurred. All of those reservoirs are playing very important role for the water supply, recreation, irrigation, and other comprehensive objectives Flood control: Storing flood water; reducing peak flood discharge Challenge 1: urbanization changes flood process Economical development Old city area 50 Number of Cities(>1 million) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1950 Popul at i on i ncr eas e 45 40 rate of urbanization 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 year 2000 number of cities with population more than 1 million in 2000 Rate of urban population (%) 50 results urbanization Economical development, population increase inducing urbanization which will greatly change the flood regime. • Harden • More • Those ground surface greatly changing the flow regime; properties will concentrated into urbanized area; people in the newly developed area can not adapted to the new requirements for flood prevention; • No enough flood proof measures for infrastructures; • City extension makes more area vulnerable to flash flood. Challenge 2 so many streams need to be trained Environmental limitation; ecological limitation Investment limitation Challenge 3 reservoir safety is very important for the flash disaster reduction Challenge 4: hydrological theory is not so adaptive to changed environment 1、ground vegetation cover greatly changed- theoretical basement varied- data series can be directly used for flood analysis? Rainfall-runoff model ? 2、climate change-how to adapted to hydrological analysis? 3、what is the flood protection standard- how to select designing flood-acceptable risk. Challenge 5: comprehensive consideration-focus points of nonstructural investment Balance between structure and nonstructure; Balance between multiple sections; Balance between efficiency and risks; Balance between flood defence and environmental improvement(ecological aspects). Challenge 6:theory for flood management is still in progress How to improve the public knowledge is still a Hard task for flash flood disaster reduction! 1、uncertainty of hydrological events, results of frequency analysis and the analysis methods can not be understand by public (designing flood, early warning methods); 2、how to understand the the acceptable risk; 3、risk characteristics of those structure works is not so clear; 4、comprehensive risk assessment methods (such as the overlaying process from different area in a river basin) Early warning of flash flood 国家级 管理平台 GSM/GPRS Internet Internet 县级平台 部署服 务器 Internet 网 站 Internet 无 安线 装预 在警 村设 备 ) GPRS/CDMA/SMS 短信发 自动雨 量站 电 视播 电广 台台 ( 综合信 息服务器 省级管 理平台 GSM/GPRS 送设备 信 短机手 Assessment of the warning message: accuracy and forecasting earliness Contents of warning system against mountain torrent disasters: (1)observation system, (2)analysis and platform for the disaster , (3) emergency response planning, (4)institutional structure, (5) training, and practice drill for emergency action. Index for early warning The most important index: threshold rainfall rainfall threshold Frequency analysis on disaster events and rainfall; Intensity and last time Basin characteristics Geomorphologic conditions; geological conditions Conveying capacity in river channel。 Disaster events Risk analysis for flash flood disaster 1.Identification: (dam break, dike break, rainfall induced flood, debris flow?) 2. Risk calculation: a calculation method is developed (integrated all the factors to gather form a comprehensive result 3. Possible measures analysis (structure works, non-structure works?) 4. Risk assessment: (cost-benefit analysis, social, economical, environmental analysis) Procedures for flash flood early warning(1) Concerned objectives Monitoring Warning Response Procedures for flash flood early warning(2) 山洪灾害人工上报 简 易 监 测 设 备 或 其 它 方 式 乡镇防汛机构值班室 Procedures for flash flood early warning(3) 县防汛机构值班室 事件分析 基础信息查询 水雨情监测查询 气象国土信息服务 水情预报服务 预案建议 基于地图的应急部署 周边应急资源搜索 主要业务流程及各级防 影响分析 部 所发挥的作用 Flash flood disaster prevention Public acknowledge to flash flood disaster Training to Administrative staff, managers, public is very important. Every people need to be mobilized to react to the flash flood emergency response Mountain torrent flood disaster prevention For the effectiveness of a emergency response planning, some preparedness excise and practice tests need to be carried out frequently Flash flood disaster prevention A website is setup for information dissemination Some key technologies for effective flash flood disaster early warning How to get a reasonable warning index is still a very important research work How to get a reasonable risk area Institutional aspect is the key point for the successful operation of a flash flood early warning system How to get a good emergency response planning conclusions Prac%ce in China illustrated that the early warning system is a very effec%ve measure for mountainous flood disaster reduc%on, only a;er you fully completed following several points: Reasonable observa,on points distribu,on Good risk analysis system which can get a rela,vely accurate risk analysis result Timely warning signal dissemina,on mechanism Reasonable ins,tu,onal structure, based on the administra,ve structure Perfect emergency response system Prac,cal evacua,on system based on community. Thank you for your attention!