tesi cd - Università degli Studi di Padova
Transcription
tesi cd - Università degli Studi di Padova
UNIVERSITÀ DEGLI STUDI DI PADOVA Facoltà di Ingegneria Corso di Laurea in Ingegneria Gestionale Tesi di Laurea Logistica dell'ultimo miglio nelle operazioni in caso di catastrofe naturale: il caso di Haiti Relatore: Ch.ma Prof.ssa Daria Battini Correlatori: Ing. Anna Azzi Prof. Daniel Ekwall Laureando: Umberto Peretti ANNO ACCADEMICO 2010 / 2011 1 2 To you 3 4 Summary Summary........................................................................................................................... 5 Riassunto ................................................................................................................................... 7 Abstract ..................................................................................................................................... 9 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 11 1.1 Description and Motivation .............................................................................................. 11 1.2 Aims ................................................................................................................................... 17 1.3 Overview ........................................................................................................................... 17 2 Humanitarian logistics operations ............................................................................... 19 Literature Review .................................................................................................................... 19 2.1 Logistics History................................................................................................................. 19 2.2 Humanitarian logistics ....................................................................................................... 20 2.3 Humanitarian space .......................................................................................................... 22 2.4 Humanitarian logistics actors ............................................................................................ 24 2.5 Humanitarian logistics issues ............................................................................................ 27 3 Cluster approach .......................................................................................................... 31 Cluster approach ..................................................................................................................... 31 3.1 Cluster approach and coordination................................................................................... 31 3.2 Cluster aims ....................................................................................................................... 35 3.2 The Clusters ....................................................................................................................... 36 3.3 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 40 4 Humanitarian lifecycle ................................................................................................ 41 4.1 Humanitarian operations phases ...................................................................................... 41 4.2 Different objectives for different phases .......................................................................... 44 5 Methods ....................................................................................................................... 55 5.1 The phase of the model .................................................................................................... 55 5.2 Data and assumptions of the problem formulation.......................................................... 56 6 Last mile distribution ................................................................................................... 59 6.1 Structure of the relief chain in Last Mile ........................................................................... 59 6.2 Introduction of the problem ............................................................................................. 60 6.3 Literature review ............................................................................................................... 61 5 6.4 Model formulation ............................................................................................................ 63 6.5 Mathematical formulation ................................................................................................ 70 7 Haitian case.................................................................................................................. 75 7.1 Infrastructures and damage .............................................................................................. 76 7.2 Port-au-Prince ................................................................................................................... 78 8 Discussion chapter ....................................................................................................... 81 8.1 Demand points in Haiti...................................................................................................... 81 8.2 LDCs location and capacity ................................................................................................ 84 8.3 Distance matrix ................................................................................................................. 85 8.4 Last mile features in Haiti.................................................................................................. 87 8.5 Program proposed............................................................................................................. 88 8.6 Data Input.......................................................................................................................... 89 8.7 Example of Output ............................................................................................................ 92 8.8 Discussion of results ........................................................................................................ 102 9 Conclusions ............................................................................................................... 105 10 Future discussions ................................................................................................... 107 Bibliography ................................................................................................................. 109 Internet sites .................................................................................................................. 113 Attachment 1......................................................................................................................... 115 6 Riassunto Il presente lavoro si propone di affrontare gli aspetti fondamentali della “Logistica Umanitaria”, da un punto di vista prettamente logistico-gestionale pur addentrandosi in ambiente filantropico, solitamente non diffusamente trattato in un cursus studiorum ingegneristico. Tale scelta è motivata, innanzitutto, da una sempre più frequente incidenza di eventi catastrofici che, anche in virtù della diffusione e accessibilità degli strumenti mediatici, vengono portati alla ribalta dai mezzi di informazione; in secondo luogo, tale indagine soddisfa un interesse personale e un’empatia che porta a condividere e riflettere sui disagi e lo stato di frustrazione che questi accadimenti comportano. L’elaborato si articola in quattro parti sinergiche che si sviluppano attraverso un processo deduttivo. Tali sezioni infatti partono da uno studio generale del settore umanitario fino ad affrontare nello specifico la criticità della distribuzione degli aiuti nell’ultimo miglio, ovvero nel segmento più complesso della supply chain, prendendo in considerazione Port au Prince, capitale di Haiti, come caso di studio per l’applicazione dei risultati ottenuti. Nella prima parte dell’analisi, si è ritenuto necessario introdurre la storia della Logistica e i caratteri dello spazio umanitario; successivamente, si sono approfonditi i ruoli degli attori che vi operano e i maggiori problemi riscontrabili nell’ambiente in oggetto e non propriamente usuali nel settore logistico; infine, si delinea il cluster approach, mettendo in evidenza le modalità di gestione e coordinamento delle Agenzie umanitarie (governative e non governative). Nella seconda parte viene illustrato il concetto di ciclo di vita associato ad un disastro naturale. Attraverso lo studio della letteratura si evince come il presentarsi di nuovi disastri sia un fatto ciclico e come tale deve essere affrontato. Il più rilevante obiettivo di questa fase è l’individuazione dei drivers e degli obiettivi caratteristici di ogni fase, per avere informazioni utili allo studio del modello, in quanto ogni fase presenta differenti fini e drivers e, di conseguenza, ogni stadio del ciclo di vita deve essere sviluppato seguendo fattori e programmi specifici. Ciò comporta quindi lo studio di input, dati, e output, informazioni e livelli di ottimizzazione dissimili. La terza parte dell’elaborato sviluppa il focus della presente relazione. Si considera, infatti, la fase denominata First Part of Support, in cui si esaminano il problema della 7 distribuzione degli aiuti nell’ultimo miglio e alcune delle caratteristiche del modello che è stato sviluppato, al fine di chiarire gli strumenti idonei per giungere all’ottimizzazione della fase del ciclo di vita selezionato. La formulazione matematica del modello è sviluppata sia dal punto di vista teorico che pratico. La quarta e ultima parte della tesi è inerente all’applicazione del modello sviluppato. Il caso di Haiti viene quindi analizzato nella globalità degli aspetti tipici dell’ambiente umanitario, un settore considerato complesso e di difficile gestione. Il programma, costruito in matlab, è realizzato sulla base delle particolarità riscontrate sia nella situazione di Port au Prince (Haiti, 12 gennaio 2010) sia nell’ultimo miglio della distribuzione a livello teorico. Nei cenni conclusivi si espongono gli obietti raggiunti secondo i risultati attesi e si accennano punti di discussione emersi lungo il percorso di analisi. 8 Abstract One of the most critical tasks during the humanitarian operations, after a natural catastrophe, is to manage and execute all the logistics operations effectively and efficiently. The main humanitarian relief operation objective is to deliver the essential supplies to beneficiaries, people who need daily living supplies into the disaster areas. The main problems in these logistics operations are the large demands, that is possible to find after the disaster, and extreme environment. These factors make all the logistics tasks as a challenge for the logistics operators in the area. This reason, the challenge, is the main motivation in this research. The idea is to show what is the humanitarian field and understand the most critical features, furthermore a model has been used to capture all the main aspects that should be studied more deeply to have a real operation model, that could be available in the disaster area. In the first part of the thesis the main subject is an introduction on humanitarian logistics operation. In this section humanitarian features are studied, as humanitarian space, humanitarian logistics actors and issues. Furthermore a feature as cluster approach is faced in this section with its aims and types of coordination. The second part introduces the lifecycle. In this section all the phases are faced and they are studied. The main reason of this part is to understand all the drivers and the objectives for each phase and choose the most eligible part to develop the model. Indeed each phase has different objectives and drivers, and so each part should have different program that can find different optimizations. The third part of this script is about the Last Mile distribution problem and the model that has been developed to find the optimization in this kind of situation. All the features, the data and the assumptions are explained in these chapters. The model formulation is developed in both theory and practice. 9 The fourth and last part of the thesis is about the application of the model. Indeed the Haitian case is studied with all the characteristics that make the humanitarian environment so complex. In this case the program, built in Matlab, is made with all the features both of Haiti and Last Mile distribution problem to find an optimization in the distribution of humanitarian aids. 10 1 Introduction “A successful humanitarian operation mitigates the urgent needs of a population with a sustainable reduction of their vulnerability in the shortest amount of time and with the least amount of resources” (Tomasini and Van Wassenhove, 2004) 1.1 Description and Motivation Disasters are not evitable. Every time somewhere in the world we can find a lot of cases of humanitarian disasters. They can be natural disasters (such as earth quake, famine, tsunami, cyclone, hurricane, flood, etc.), manmade disasters (such as terrorism, war, civil disorder, etc.), disease (like malaria or hiv/aids) or extreme poverty situation. Some of them could provide a modicum of warming while others could choke the world with destruction and chaos. Almost always the companion of these types of disaster is however the development of aids, humanitarian aids: materials, equipment, food, funds and people are typical resources employed to supply relief wherever it needs. The intention of this project thesis is to understand how humanitarian logistics aid operations are managed, which performances are studied and which objectives are important to achieve. In this project we will concentrate in natural disasters effects with special attention to logistics field, state of humanitarian logistics art, humanitarian transport optimization problems and their possibilities of resolution. It is important to pay attention to the choice of research that I have done. I won’t consider specific manmade disasters but only natural disasters. This choice has been taken just because manmade disasters, for example wars, could have different issues and consequences in humanitarian field. Indeed manmade disasters include even more political and social factors. Just for example, we can take the situation of humanitarian activities in Serbian-controlled Bosnia on 1993. On 17th of February in that year UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Sodako Ogata decided suddenly to suspend al UNCHR activities in Balkan area. This decision was criticized by the 11 international community. Former secretary general Boutros Boutros-Ghali criticized her saying that political negotiations were underway and the suspension of the humanitarian activities could have political impact. The Sodako’s decision was taken because there weren’t safe conditions for the humanitarian staff that was working in that area and she accused local political leaders because they didn’t ensure the safe passage of humanitarian assistance and blocked access to underserved groups. After few days the situations changed, safer conditions were created and the humanitarian aid restarted. However this case is interesting because can show how many political or social problems it can be found in a war, seen like manmade disaster. Others political or social example could be taken by others conflicts as civil war in Rwanda. Indeed, in a conflict, humanitarian organizations can be used like a tool to transform a conflict or like a tool used for objectives different by humanitarian objectives. So, to simplify the situation and to concentrate the studies in logistics operations, I have decided to study just natural disasters. In particular the intent is to study and understand the Haitian case seeing how the International community has moved to help this small Caribbean country after the earthquake that hit Haiti at the beginning of 2010. The choice of this particular event was made because it was the most important natural disaster in the last ten years and this can allow to study how the International community has moved to help Haiti. Based on the United Nations definition, natural catastrophes are classified as great if a region’s ability to help itself is distinctly overtaxed, making superregional or international assistance necessary. As a rule, this is the case when there are thousands of fatalities, hundreds of thousands are left homeless and/or the overall or insured losses are of exceptional proportions given the economic circumstances of the country concerned. 12 Table 1.1 Great and devastating natural catastrophes in the last fifty years. Great natural catastrophes since 1960 Deadliest event Year Event Country Fatalities 2010 Earthquake Haiti 222.570 2008 Cyclone Nargis Myanmar 140.000 2008 Earthquake China 84.000 2005 Earthquake Pakistan, India 88.000 2004 Earthquake, tsunami Esp. Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, 220.000 India 1991 Tropical cyclone, storm Bangladesh 139.000 surge 1990 Earthquake Iran 40.000 1976 Earthquake China 242.000 1970 Tropical cyclone, floods Bangladesh 300.000 1970 Earthquake Peru 67.000 This would be a classic logistics case. The main differences between this case and the others are about the particular situation in which the humanitarian logistics aid operators have to work: complex environment with uncertainty and risk following humanitarian principles. However humanitarian aid operations camp is a particular field, full of difficulties, in which we can find logistics operations. Indeed the humanitarian operators have often to work in an environment with destabilized infrastructures ranging from a lack of electricity supplies to limited transport infrastructure. But even it can be an interesting field of study, indeed in this humanitarian branch a quick response to the disaster is fundamental together with a resource management able to give humanitarian relief in time and with a cost efficiency. The speed of humanitarian aid operations after 13 a disaster depends “on the ability of logisticians to procure, transport and receive supplies at the site of a humanitarian relief effort” (Thomas, 2003). So it is a logistics case in disaster relief operations with very special circumstances. I have chosen this particular field even for another reason: the natural disasters with all types of aid they need, have been increased and now are still increasing. Indeed, according to Thomas and Kopczac, (2005) “disaster relief is and will continue to be a growth market. Both natural and manmade disasters are expected to increase another five-fold over the next fifty years”. There are a lot of factors that are present and are increasing day by day. For example there are factors as steady population growth, urbanization and residential densification. Furthermore there are some natural factors, as desertification, and economical factors, as natural resources research. All these three types of factors can explain why it has been predicted this increasing of disaster relief market by Thomas and Kopczac. 14 Figure 1.1 Natural disasters reported: in the last thirty years there has been averagely an 900% increase. According to Munich Reinsurance Group and CaritasItaliana studies, the natural disasters with all types of aid they need, have been increased and now are still increasing. Since 60’s until today, the victims number of natural disasters have had averagely a 900% increase, more or less the same increase of natural disasters. This is caused mainly by the living conditions in poverty of half world population: uncontrolled population growth, forced urbanization, abandonment of countryside, lack of infrastructures and public services, poor quality of building, poor land management, social degradation as well as the overlapping of wars and environmental disasters. These catastrophic events hurt differently rich and poor countries. Indeed if a region is rich, it will have more economic losses, while if a country is poor, it will have more 15 casualties. And so it is possible seeing the table 1.1 understand why in the list of 10 most important natural disasters in terms of fatalities, we can’t find any rich states. In a Munich Reinsurance Group’s study we can find a statistics about the real annual economic losses caused by natural disasters. Is it possible to see that annual economic losses have been growing steadily. Averaging Us$75.5 billion in the 1960’s, US$138,4 billion in the 1970’s, US$213,9 billion in 1980’s and US$659,9 billion in 1990’s. Furthermore is important to observe that Logistics has always been an important factor in humanitarian aid operations, according to Trunick in 2005 logistics efforts account for 80 percent of disaster relief. Transportation is a major component of disaster relief operations. One of the most important challenge is the post disaster transportation, especially across the “last mile”. If we take a typical supply chain and if we consider it in a natural disaster situation, it is easy to understand that the last part of distribution is the most critical one. There are a lot of factors that make this part so critical. The most important factor is the number of the people, that usually is uncertain, and the issue that these people need a quick response. Figure 1.2 : The main element of a typical supply chain. In relief operations ultimate costumers management is the most critical part (Ittmann, 2009). 16 Furthermore “the challenge arises from damaged infrastructure, limited transportation resources, and the sheer amount sand bulk of supplies to be transported” (Balcik et al., 2008). Even the geographical characteristics of a place may also increase challenges in accessing affected populations (e.g., the geographically dispersed Indonesian islands and the mountainous terrain of Pakistan). These characteristics may imply the use of already-scarce resources. Therefore, for all these reasons, it is possible define the logistics as critical point in humanitarian aid operations. 1.2 Aims This thesis aims to present the most basic concepts of humanitarian logistics: the state of art upon humanitarian logistics and last mile distribution in a humanitarian aids operation, taking Haitian case as example. The logistics principles that will be described here have multi-sectoral applications, not only in emergency situations, but also in the day-to-day operations that must be a part of disaster prevention and preparedness. 1.3 Overview In chapter 2 the humanitarian logistics is introduced. Indeed in this section it is possible to find the history of commercial logistics and the humanitarian one. Furthermore some particular features of the humanitarian logistics are explained as actors, space and issues typical of this kind of field. The idea of this chapter is to introduce the topic of the humanitarian giving the basis for the next sections. Chapter 3 is a prosecution of number 2. In this section the cluster approach has been studied. This approach was introduced in 2005 and it is known as the humanitarian reform that changed completely the humanitarian field, indeed it brought a new concept of coordination and, with it, a higher level of efficiency. So in the chapter are faced the aims of this reform and all the clusters presented in the humanitarian field. 17 In chapter 4 the lifecycle of a disaster is considered. In this chapter the different phases of a disaster are explained. The main reason of this choice is to show all the objectives and drivers that change in each phase. This chapter allows to understand which can be the future drivers that will be used in the next chapters. In chapter 5 it has been taken the phase where the Last Mile problem will be put. The phase chosen is the First part of the Support phase. Here all the drivers have been found and the data and the assumptions of the problem are faced. In chapter 6 the Last Mile distribution problem is studied. I here we can find the literature review and the structure of the relief chain in this particular problem. Furthermore the model formulation is presented with both of the phases used. At the end of the chapter it is possible to find the mathematical formulation of the problem, with the objective function and all the constraints, and a table shows the differences between our model and the model studied previously. In chapter 7 there is the Haitian case presentation. This chapter would start the real application of the model. Indeed the case is studied to see if it is possible to find all the assumptions and the features studied in the previous chapters. Here it is even found Port au Prince as the place where the study will be placed, furthermore some of the data are presented. In Chapter 8, Haitian case study is conducted to apply model in a humanitarian logistics operation. The model is used in this study to generate an optimization in the distribution. In this case studied the model is executed based on some inputs to find the most critical data that are required for this situation. Finally, the chapter summarizes both theoretical and computational results obtained by the study. In chapter 9 all the conclusions are presented and discussed. In addition, in chapter 10, future research directions are provided. 18 2 Humanitarian logistics operations “Logistics in the Humanitarian sector is define as ‘the process of planning, implementing and controlling the efficient, cost-effective flow of and storage of goods and materials as well as related information, from point of origin to point of consumption for the purpose of meeting the end beneficiary’s requirements” (Thomas and Mizushima, 2005) Literature Review The field of humanitarian logistics is quite new and it is usually considered as the process and system involved in providing humanitarian aids to help vulnerable people. The logistics is very important in humanitarian operations, indeed it efforts account for 80 percent of disaster relief. 2.1 Logistics History It is possible to find the origins of logistics already in antiquity and they had a military connotation. Indeed logistics was considered like a branch of military art that dealt all the tasks that military needed living, moving and fighting in the best conditions. This logistics identification, like an exclusively military task, remained valid till the end of second world war. Just after the end of second world war the concept of logistics started to be expanded and it was extended even to economic and industrial sector. In 50’s and 60’s the meaning of logistics was limited to finished product distribution, it was confined like a support task. In the 70’s it is possible to find the first forms of evolution of logistics concept. It started to change from a product distribution to a structured management of a whole of activities. The enterprises began to look for improvements in physical distribution area, from warehouses to customers. It was made through appropriate interventions of rationalizations hat were used to optimize different parts of distribution cycle. Since 80’s, after new logics of management in the enterprises were introduced, for example Materials Requirements Planning (MRP) or the Just in time (JIT), the attention was focused upon material management. Indeed "material management" was coined to mean all those activities used to provide the correct 19 acquisition, handling and management of materials to ensure the constant and sudden supply to production and to others users. The next phase in logistics evolution marked a radical change. This happened because there was the transition from a logistics considered as a whole of operative activities to a logistics seen as inter-operational system that was used in achievement of higher performance levels. In that period started the concept of integrated logistics, well synthesized in the definition made by the Council of Logistics Management in 1986. In that definition the logistics was seen as the process used to plan, implement and check the prime material flow, semi processes and finished product flow, and to manage their information flows, from the origin place to the customer. This was done to find of making the product as efficient as possible and as comply as possible to costumers needs. The last stage of the logistics evolution, the stage that leaded to the born of Supply chain management concept, was characterized by awareness that the improvement of flows management in logistics chain has to be done with the involvement of external actors. The logistics assumed a central role and its objective became substantially governing all the phases of the productive process, even external from the enterprise. It is seen as a new management approach, in which the enterprise has became a part of a network and in this network the different organizations integrate their business processes to supply products, services and information that can create value for the customers. 2.2 Humanitarian logistics The humanitarian logistics had followed the history of logistics but just since 60’s and 70’s. The conflict in Biafra is one example of the first situations where issues of more contemporary complex emergencies began to develop . In 1968 in Biafra, a Nigerian region rich of oil, an entire generation of children was starving. This happened because there was a war between Nigeria and Biafra, that wanted to be independent. In that period a thousand children were dying every day for the famine that had touched the country. 20 When an English journalist went there with a photo reporter to make pictures about the situation to show it at “western world” the story of Biafra became soon one of the most emblematic affair in those years. Everyone was affected by that tale. And, after a lot of events meetings and protests, humanitarian organizations were born as we now know them now. Many humanitarian organizations grew thanks to their Biafra’s employment. Organizations like International Red Cross tripled its investments, even others nongovernmental organizations as Oxfam, Caritas or Concern grew. That was an heroic behavior and a logistics success for humanitarian organizations. Ideas and underlines principles weren’t new, but from Biafra these took shape and spread with strength. Indeed before this we could just speak about logistics as military or industrial branch. For this reason it is considered relatively new, a field that has been began relevant research just within last ten years. According to Thomas and Mizushima definition the Humanitarian logistics is considered the process of planning, implementing and controlling the efficient, costeffective flow of and storage of goods and materials as well as related information, from point of origin to point of consumption for the purpose of meeting the end beneficiary’s requirements. It is different to commercial logistics because there are a lot of issues and actors that there aren’t in commercial one. In the next paragraphs actors and issues will be exposed. Furthermore humanitarian space, which is defined by humanitarian principles, both physically and virtually, where humanitarian operators need to be able to operate, will be developed in next sections. 21 2.3 Humanitarian space Figure 2.1 : Humanitarian space, defined the space between the three main humanitarian principles: humanity, neutrality and impartiality. In the mid-1990s the term “humanitarian space” was coined by Rony Brauman former Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) president who defined it ‘a space of freedom in which we are free to evaluate needs, free to monitor the distribution and use of relief goods, and free to have a dialogue with the people’. This topic was resumed by Tomasini and Van Wassenhove in 2004. They have considered the humanitarian space as an area defined by three main important humanitarian principles: Humanity, Neutrality and Impartiality. In the humanity principle, the purpose is to protect health and life ensuring respect for human beings wherever they are found. Neutrality is a principle about humanitarian operators’ neutrality by political, racial, religious or ideological situations. For this reason humanitarian operators must not take sides in hostilities or engage in controversies. The last principle is impartiality. It means humanitarian operators don’t make any distinction on the basis of nationality, race gender, religious belief, class or political opinions. For Tomasini and Van Wassenhove humanitarian space is a space both virtually and physically. Indeed, virtually, the humanitarian space is useful to help humanitarian operators’ decisions to ensure their bearing with ethical context. Physically, instead, the 22 space is described as a “zone of tranquility” where it is possible giving humanitarian aids to people who need, in a context of safety and operational freedom. Clinging to humanitarians principles and having the right humanitarian space in complex environments could be very difficult, particularly during a war. Indeed humanitarians have to remain independent by the conflict, for example they can’t use humanitarian aids to help one side over another, while they have to be able to work in safety. Historically is quite easy to find situations in which humanitarian space were important. For example in Iraq and Afghanistan situations the separation between humanitarians and military has been sometimes blurred. In these situations it happened sometimes that humanitarian community was confused with combatant military force and so the humanitarian space, seen like “zone of tranquility”, was not available. It is possible even to study “The South African food crisis in 2002” to understand the importance in adherence to humanitarian principles in crisis due by natural disasters and the challenge that humanitarian operators have to take to uphold and maintain their principles and “space”. In February 2002 was declared a state of emergency in Malawi, an African nation. Two months later even Lesotho and Zimbabwe had declared the state of emergency. In this crisis there were many factors involved, that made the crisis more complex. Indeed political, economical, demographic and environmental factors were preset in this crisis. The WFP started to move to South African crisis quickly with food donated by US Government. But there was a problem with US donations, indeed US, like many others donors, made no distinction between genetically modified (GM) and conventional food. So many African countries refused the food because they were afraid of contamination and because their economy could be damaged by GM in long-term. The WFP decided to change his programs to follow its principles. It respected the decision even if it could be a big problem. Indeed WFP supply chain was still working with a lot of genetically modified food and its warehouses were full of it. The organization was able to move quickly following humanitarian principles, even it was able to turn into a positive situation from negative one. 23 2.4 Humanitarian logistics actors In humanitarian aid operations it is possible to find many actors that are employing. According with Gyöngyi Kovács and Karen Spens as well as population hit by natural disaster, that is the last beneficiary, there are others actors in humanitarian aid supply network. These are logistics providers, military, governments, donors, aid agencies and the others NGOs. Figure 2.2 : Actors in supply network in humanitarian aid operations. Source: Kovács & Spens, 2007 Logistics providers: they are presented in the field to ensure the providing of the humanitarian aids. • Aid agencies and others NGOs: aid agencies can be considered as the first actors involved by governments to alleviate suffering while NGOs are not linked to any government. Some of them, the largest ones, could be considered as global actors but there are even many smaller agencies, regional or country-specific agencies. The high number of humanitarian agencies has made important 24 improving coordination between them, for this reason in 2005 was introduced the Custer approach that will be studied in the next phases. Table 2.1 : Annual budgets of major humanitarian NGOs and agencies. NGO/agency Annual budget ($US billion) UN Childrens’ Fund (UNICEF) 3,390 World Food Programme (WFP) 5,000 UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) 1,095 World Health Organisation (WHO) 4,225 UN Development Fund (UNDP) 5,000 UN Population Fund (UNPF) 250 (UN) Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) 240 World Vision International (VWI) 1,620 Save the Children 810 CARE 440 Catholic Relief Services 440 Me´decins sans Frontie`res (MSF) 430 Oxfam 400 International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) 500 Total 23,840 • Donors: donors are the base of humanitarian relief and so they have to be considered very important actors. Indeed they provide most founding for relief operations. Recently private donors and foundations, in addition to government specific founds, have become important sources of funds for humanitarian agencies. It is important to know that it is important to coordinate even the 25 donors, indeed they usually are a large number of uncoordinated and disparate donors and they could be influenced by media. • Military: military often can be very important actors. When aid operators need personnel to provide assistance. For example many roads (including the airport road) in Port au Prince in Haiti in 2010 were being cleared by MINUSTAH (United Nation Stabilization Mission in Haiti) and Brazilian battalion. It is to underline that military mission are usually very fast in terms of reaction time and it is very important especially at the beginning response to a natural disaster. • Governments: both host governments and neighboring country governments are important actors during natural disaster response. Indeed host governments usually control assets such fuel depots or warehouses and have information about the country and the population. Furthermore host country logistics service providers can facilitate or constrain the effectiveness of relief operations. Neighboring country governments are important instead because they can provide logistics support and quick response to natural disaster. For example, in Haiti case, one of the first response was made by Cuba while logistics support was given and is given still now by Dominican republic. • Logistics providers: in the supply process can be very important even extraregional logistics service providers. An example could be DHL’s participation in Humanitarian logistics operations in Haiti. Indeed with so many shortages, security and logistical challenges in Haiti, the DHL’s skills at managing aid were absolutely necessary. • The media: this actor usually is not presented in private logistics sector and it could be a very critical which can change donors’ appeal to humanitarian operations. Sometime humanitarian organizations have problems in managing “unsolicited donations” due advertising made by media and that could cause bottlenecks in the supply chain. 26 With all these actors one of the most important challenges is the coordination. Indeed, if it is not present a good coordination could be impossible providing humanitarian aids with good efficiency. For this reason in 2005 cluster approach was accepted by Interagency Standing Committee (IASC). This approach is fundamental in humanitarian aids operations indeed clusters on different functions, including sheltering and logistics and water sanitation, can be viewed as an effort of functional coordination. Cluster approach will be studied in next chapter. 2.5 Humanitarian logistics issues Humanitarian logistics is very different from typical commercial logistics. As we have seen in humanitarian field there are a lot of actors that usually there aren’t in commercial one. Furthermore it is possible to find others issues that make relief distribution more complex. These issues are about environment, uncertainty and resources in which humanitarian logistics aids operations often take place. According to Tomasini and Van Wassenhove it is possible identify some characteristics of humanitarian supply chain that can explain its complexity: • Ambiguity of objectives. The first characteristic is the ambiguity of objectives, it is due to large numbers of stakeholders. Indeed, as we have seen, in humanitarian operations there are many actors and sometimes their actions can be “uncoordinated, spontaneous, unsolicited, and disparate” (Rolando Tomasini And Luk Van Wassenhove, 2010). So the absence of a profit-making incentive and the absence of a coordination could lead to continuous reinvention of the route. • Limited resources. Another characteristic that has been studied is the limited resources mixed with asymmetric distribution in the investments of the different actors. The limited resources studied are human, capital and infrastructures’. Human resources are limited because it is difficult to find qualified people deployable in so difficult contests, even money liquidity can’t be always 27 available in time. The infrastructures, instead, in a natural disaster situation can be damaged and so unusable. • High uncertainty. In a post natural disaster scenario it is possible to find a very dynamic situation with many changes in supply and demand. Furthermore there is always a significant inability assess the situations. This happen for both presence of many actors and the difficulty to understand how they will contribute to the operations. This uncertainty is also linked with an high level of risk indeed in humanitarian operations it is required to deal with unknown and unexpected events. • Urgency. Humanitarian operations usually have an high level of urgency. Indeed it is important that first humanitarian aids arrive in less than 72 hours. This brings these types of operations in a high level of intensity (seen as number of task in a time unit). • Environment. As we have seen, in humanitarian operations there are a lot of actors and sometimes could be difficult maintain “humanitarian space” where humanitarians can supply aids without any pressure and independently. When we consider post natural disaster environment, we have to consider even a context between life and death with an high level of physical and emotional stress. At last humanitarian are forced by the particular environment in using robust equipment, for example all terrain trucks, this type of environments are typical after natural disasters where there are high structural damages (streets, buildings). All these issues are typical of humanitarian supply chain but if we consider logistics issues we can find another one important, that is the “speed”. In industrial logistics often the speed of transport is fundamental but in humanitarian field the speed of response absolutely critical. This happens because humanitarian operators have 72 hours to save a maximum of human lives after a natural disaster. So the speed is the main diver and the reduction of lead time is one of the most important challenges. In 1994 Richardson elaborated a list of factors that could increase the complexity of the humanitarian operations and has to be considered when we are speaking about a 28 disaster. These factors were not real factors themselves but they can be included in complex management of a disaster. These elements are: • Interactivity: it is possible interactivity among factors, this could worsen the situation and escalate the magnitude of disaster. • Invisibility: some factors could be unknown or they are underestimated, this leads to an inability to anticipate these factors. • Ambiguity: when the cause-effects are not completely known it could be difficult to understand the direction in which magnitude might escalate. • Incremental: sometimes some factors could be disregarded because they are considered not so important, becoming invisible and growing, leading to future consequences. • Diversity of factors: in humanitarian aids operations it is normal to work with a lot of factors and it could be difficult to understand which are the most important ones and if some of them could hide the real nature of the problem. • New phenomena: one of the most challenge in an after natural disaster operation is that often effects and impact could be unknown and without time for an appropriate analysis of the situation. As we have seen there are a lot of challenges in humanitarian aids operations and also there are many factors that could increase the complexity in this type of operations, for these reasons it is important to have a good supply chain management from suppliers until ultimate customers, with high attention especially upon problem in last mile distribution. 29 30 3 Cluster approach “Humanitarian reform seeks to improve the effectiveness of humanitarian response by ensuring greater predictability, accountability and partnership. It is an ambitious effort by the international humanitarian community to reach more beneficiaries, with more comprehensive needs-based relief and protection, in a more effective and timely manner.” (United Nations website) Cluster approach According to van Wassenhove (2006) the increasing number and complexity of disasters has made specialization and coordination both important and challenging. As we have seen there are many actors in humanitarian aids operations, organizations that provide humanitarian aids, both in immediate response to a disaster or in the months that follows. They have their independence. When these organizations combine each others can be rise a series of problems related to coordination, to transport optimization and to prioritizing the pipeline. For these reasons this kind of operations need “coordination in terms of both preparedness and response, such as contingency planning, needs assessment, appeals, transport management and last-mile distribution” (Oloruntoba, 2005). One attempt to solve these problems is the cluster system, essentially a template for how coordination should be carried out in a number of areas (Jahre and Jensen, 2010). 3.1 Cluster approach and coordination According to Inter Agency Standing Committee the cluster concept could be defined functionally in terms of areas of activity – for example, water and sanitation, health, shelter and nutrition – which typically reflects the important and somewhat separate areas of relief work, often referred to as sectors (Inter-agency Standing Committee (IASC), 2006). In this research we study the logistics cluster and we can say that it is relatively well developed. This because it has the experiences of the United Nations Joint Logistics Centre (UNJLC), a mechanism uses previously for the logistics coordination. The 31 UNJLC was institutionalized in 2002 by the UN and it was employed just to coordinate humanitarian logistics in humanitarian aids operations. Since 2005 it was gradually superseded by the cluster system. The logistics cluster has a very important task because it supports other clusters, for example in distribution or in transportation. Cluster approach was introduced in 2005 because it was obvious that, for example in the Asian tsunami in December of 2004 and the response to the Darfur crisis in 2004/2005, there were a lot of problems providing sufficient coverage in large aids operations. For example, if we study transport optimization in a humanitarian aids operation and we consider all of the actors employee in the operation it is easy to understand that without any coordination we could have different transports for each organizations employed. In this way we can find transportations far from full load or from route optimization. Table 3.1: Weaknesses and threats in humanitarian operations before the Humanitarian Reform in 2005 (Jahre and Jensen, 2010). So one of the most important concepts introduced by cluster approach was the concept of coordination. There are a lot of different typologies of coordination that have been suggested, but most of them are in relation to vertical and horizontal coordination, as in Figure 3.1. 32 Figure 3.1: Different typologies of coordination that have been suggested, in relation to vertical and horizontal coordination A good definition of coordination could be “when two or more unrelated or competing organizations cooperate to share their private information or resources such as joint distribution centers” (Simatupang and Sridharan, 2002) As is it possible to see in the table 3.2, take by Coordination in humanitarian logistics through clusters (Jahre and Jensen, 2010), there are different reasons to consider each type of coordination, horizontal or vertical. The first reasons are about what to coordinate and about the focus of each type of coordination, while the second point touches the objectives that we want to achieve if we choose one of them. 33 Table 3.2 Coordination aspects in Horizontal and Vertical coordination (Jahre and Jensen, 2010). In the literature it is possible to find description about vertical coordination. It is most used to synchronize the supply chain at different levels and its objectives are to improve the efficiency of the whole supply chain and focusing all the suppliers to the final costumers improving costumers service while horizontal cooperation is defined as “concerted practices between companies operating at the same level(s) in the market” (Cruijssen et al., 2007) and it involves internal collaboration and collaboration with competitors and non-competitors (Barratt, 2004). The importance of coordination in humanitarian field could be understood by keeping in mind that a humanitarian operations is not subjected just by UN and its agencies, but there are a lot of workers and NGO organizations that could be employed in this kind of operations and that often lack the political support and recognition of the UN system. Thus in humanitarian logistics is very important to consider even the horizontal coordination. Indeed in the cluster concept, the main task of the cluster leader is to create global standards and work with other agencies, seen as external collaborators in the figure 3.1, to secure capacity such as human resources, there are also some examples of pipeline management, such as the logistics cluster handling air traffic control and cargo prioritization (Jahre and Jensen, 2010). Furthermore, when UN humanitarian system was projected, years ago, it was divided into specialized tasks (UNICEF for children, WFP for food, etc.) but we know that no crisis is ever just about one of the tasks, usually many of them are employed in the same operation. 34 For these reasons the cluster approach is used from the beginning to plan and organize and coordinate the international response in emergency that requires a multi-sectoral response and that considers the participation of a wide range of international humanitarian actors. 3.2 Cluster aims To understand completely the cluster approach could be interesting understanding cluster aims. The cluster concept was developed to improve efficiency in 5 key areas (Cluster Appeal 2007): 1) Sufficient global capacity to meet current and future emergencies 2) Predictable leadership at a global and local level 3) Strengthened partnerships between UN bodies, NGOs and local authorities 4) Accountability, both for the response and vis-à-vis beneficiaries 5) Strategic field level coordination and prioritization. Below we are going to tackle each key areas and to present the particularity of them to understand how the cluster approach can be useful in humanitarian aids operations: 1. The first aim of the approach is to ensure sufficient global capacity. It is possible obtain it building up and maintained the capacity in all the main sectors of response. This has to be done ensuring timely and effective responses in new crises. 2. Second aim of the cluster approach is to ensures predictable leadership in the humanitarian operation, in each areas of response. For this reason each cluster has a cluster leader that is responsible for ensuring that the capacity is in place and that the others activities , as assessment, planning and response, are carried out in accordance with partners and following agreed standards and guidelines. 3. As the third aim, the approach is planned around the concept of partnerships between the agencies: UN agencies, the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement, international organizations and NGOs. They work together towards agreed common humanitarian objectives. These objectives are both at the global level (preparedness, standards, tools and capacity-building) and at the 35 field level (assessment, planning, delivery and monitoring during the operation). The aim is even to make a better partnership with host governments, local authorities and local civil society, and to avoid situations were governments have to deal with hundreds of uncoordinated international actors. 4. Fourth aim, the cluster approach strengthens responsibility. Indeed cluster leaders are accountable to the Emergency Relief Coordinator (ERC) for building up a more predictable and effective response capacity in line with IASC agreements. At the field level cluster leaders are accountable to Humanitarian Coordinators for fulfilling agreed roles and responsibilities for Cluster leadership. The second important point for the responsibility is that cluster approach strengthens accountability to beneficiaries through commitments to participatory and community-based approaches, improved common needs assessments and prioritization, and better monitoring and evaluation. 5. The fifth and last aim considered is that the approach should help to improve strategic field-level coordination and prioritization in specific areas of response by placing responsibility for leadership and coordination of these issues with the competent operational agency. (These information are tracked and developed by Humanitarianreform.org) For these five reasons the cluster approach is very important in management of humanitarian aids operations. 3.2 The Clusters As we have seen the cluster approach, since humanitarian reform in 2005, is the answer that has been given to resolve some problems in humanitarian operations. The clusters present now, in 2010, are eleven: Agriculture, Camp Coordination/Management, Early recovery, Education, Emergency Shelter, Food, Emergency Telecommunications, Health, Logistics, Nutrition, Protection, Water Sanitation Hygiene. In the next section we are going to expose each of them. 36 Table 3.3: Clusters and cluster leaders that could be involved in a humanitarian operations Cluster Agriculture Camp Coordination/Management Early recovery Cluster leader FAO UNHCR and IOM UNDP Education UNICEF and NGO Emergency Shelter UNHCR and IFRC Emergency Telecommunications WFP Food WFP Health WHO Logistics WFP Nutrition UNICEF Protection UNHCR Water Sanitation Hygiene UNICEF Agriculture Cluster: in agriculture cluster the leader is the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It provides services as technical surge capacity, improved sector response, agreement on common methods and formats for needs assessment, monitoring and benchmarking, opportunities for best practices and lessons learned, and mobilization of resources for both the sector as a whole and FAO’s own interventions. Camp Coordination/Management Cluster: IOM (International Organization of Migration) and UNHCR ( United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees) are the cluster leaders of the global CCCM Cluster. This cluster has an unified approach for both natural disasters and manmade disasters. This is made with the purpose of ensuring commonly agreed policies, standards and expertise are applied to IDP (internally displaced person) situations regardless of the source of displacement (natural or manmade). Anyway the agencies maintain their primary responsibility in their field: with UNHCR addressing conflict-induced IDPs and with IOM addressing natural disaster-induced IDPs. 37 Early Recovery Cluster: in this cluster the leader is UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). The cluster is defined as recovery that begins early in a humanitarian setting. It is a multi-dimensional process, guided by development principles, it aims to generate self-sustaining nationally owned and resilient processes for post-crisis recovery, the last part of the lifecycle. Early recovery encompasses the restoration of basic services, livelihoods, shelter, governance, security and the rule of law, environment and social dimensions, including the reintegration of displaced populations. It stabilizes human security and addresses underlying risks that contributed to the crisis. Education Cluster: UNICEF (United Nations Children’s Fund) and the International Save the Children Alliance co-lead the IASC Education Cluster, working in close collaboration with other leading agencies and INEE (Inter-Agency Network for Education in Emergencies). It is increasingly recognized as an important sector within humanitarian response. Emergency Shelter Cluster: this cluster is co-chaired by UNHCR and IFRC (International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies). UNHCR leads the Emergency Shelter Cluster in the area of conflict generated IDPs while IFRC is convener of the Emergency Shelter Cluster in natural disaster situations. Emergency Telecommunications Cluster: In 2010 WFP was designated as the Global ETC Lead Agency with responsibility as the provider of last resort (POLR) for security and data communications. The availability of robust, reliable information and communications technology (ICT) infrastructure and services has become critically important to the successful functioning of all the clusters and for ensuring personal security from the onset of an emergency. Food cluster: the leader in this cluster is the WFP and its function is to deliver food where people need during a humanitarian operations. Important to note how WFP is the 38 leader even of Logistics cluster, this because distribution of food and logistics are closely linked. Global Health Cluster: it is under the leadership of the WHO (World Health Organization), is made up of more than 30 international humanitarian health organizations that have been working together over the past four years to build partnerships and mutual understanding and to develop common approaches to humanitarian health action. Global Logistics Cluster Support Cell: is hosted in the Logistics Division of WFP. Its primary goal is to mobilize surge capacity to provide logistics support to the humanitarian community in emergencies and to work with local authorities on systemwide preparedness and contingency planning. Nutrition Cluster: the leader of this cluster is UNICEF. It ensures the right information gets to the right people in time and accessible manner. The four focus areas for the Nutrition Cluster are strategic ones and they are not meant to be exhaustive and they include coordination, capacity building, emergency preparedness, assessment, monitoring, surveillance, and supply. Global Protection Cluster: the global lead agency for protection is UNHCR. Protection covers a wide range of activities that are aimed at ensuring respect for the rights of all individuals, regardless of their age, gender or social, ethnic, national, religious or other background. Water Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) Cluster: it provides an open formal platform for all emergency WASH actors to work together. The global cluster is UNICEF. The Cluster Approach presents many opportunities to bring the sector as a whole closer together in ensuring a predictable, effective, timely and coherent WASH humanitarian response. (These information are tracked and developed by www.oneresponse.info) 39 3.3 Conclusion Figure 3.2 : The coordination in cluster approach, from the high number of Aid Agencies and NGOs to the disaster situation. In 1998, the term “cluster” was defined by Porter as “geographic concentrations of interconnected companies and institutions in a particular field”. In the field of humanitarianism, cluster thinking has been suggested as a solution to the lack of coordinated disaster response. Clusters for diverse functions, including sheltering, logistics and water and sanitation, can be viewed as an effort to achieve functional coordination (Jahre and Jensen, 2010). The aim of this chapter was to show and understand the cluster approach and its impact in humanitarian aids operation. As it is possible to see in figure 3.2, the clusters are used to manage, coordinate and optimize all the resources (human resources, physical resources, information, etc.) from the high number of aid agencies and nongovernmental organizations to the place where the humanitarian operation is placed, the disaster situation. 40 4 Humanitarian lifecycle “Disaster management is often described as a process with several stages (Long, 1997; Nisha de Silva, 2001). Cottrill (2002), borrowing from the risk management literature, talks about the planning, mitigation, detection, response and recovery phases of disaster management.” (Kovàcs and Spens, 2007) An humanitarian operation has not to be considered just one and whole operation. Indeed it’s better considering it like a set of phases, this is important because the amount and the types of resources and the supply chain are usually different on each phase of operation. These phases constitute jointly the lifecycle. Figure 4.1 : Life span of a disaster. 4.1 Humanitarian operations phases Before studying each phases it is important consider the two types of project environment for implementing humanitarian logistics operations (Charles, Lauras, Dupont, Tomasini and Van Wassenhove, 2007). The first type of disasters are slow onset disaster, as epidemics, famine/food insecurity, population movements, here the humanitarian operations have constraints as cost savings, low budgets and the focus is based on the capacity building, on using national staff, on planning and scheduling, and long time frames. The second type of disasters is 41 sudden onset disasters, for example hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons, earthquakes, floods, volcanic eruptions. Here there aren’t close constraints as budget but there are short time frames, and they are centered on providing medical assistance, providing food and non food items. This distinction is important to understand the different the supply chain and the amount of resources needed for each type of disaster but especially to understand the different space-time for the different types of disaster. The response typically follows the life cycle represented in figure 4.1. The response can be divided in three principal phases: • Phase 1, ramp up, immediate response: in this phase aids and infrastructures (assets and staff) are deployed to the area of disaster. • Phase 2, sustainment, support: here aids and infrastructures are employed completely all period of responding to the crisis long. • Phase 3, ramp down, dismantling: during the dismantling assets are gradually reduced, the assets are moved to others areas where they are needed. Later, in 2007, was presented by Kovács and Spens a model that considered three phases of disaster management. The names of each phases were preparation, immediate response and reconstruction. In this model there was an important additional phase: the preparedness. Figure 4.2 : Phases of disaster relief operations. (Kovács and Spens, 2007) However if we combine the two models studied, Tomasini and Van Wassenhove’s model with Kovács and Spens’ model, it is possible to arrive to the model presented by Charles et al. in 2007. 42 Figure 4.3 : Humanitarian operations lifecycle with the time-spaces for the two different types of disaster. (Charles et al., 2007) In the figure 4.3, furthermore, it is possible to note the timescale of four phases in the sudden onset and slow onset disasters, but it is important to understand that it is just an estimate indeed it is not always possible to be absolute in terms of the timescale of these four elements. A broad estimate was made by Tatham and Kovács (2007) while in the example in figure 4.3 we can see the time-space made by Charles et al. (2007), in which they suggest that, in a sudden onset disaster, the immediate response element can last 46 days after the onset of the event while the support element can last from three months to one year. In a slow onset disaster the time of each element is more extended. This study is important to note that in the immediate response phase in a sudden onset disaster, the reliefs are provided by local and national resources, while the second phase there is, generally, support from international agencies. In essence, the differentiation between the two phases reflects the reality that humanitarian operators have more or less 72 hours to react and respond to a disaster. A final consideration about lifecycle is about the cyclical nature of disaster relief. As presented by Safran (2005) and Houghton (2006). Here the reconstruction phase of disaster reliefs is seen as an essential link to a new preparation phase for future disasters. This view is very precious, indeed if we consider the case of Haiti we can 43 understand how the reconstruction phase after 2005 hurricane Wilma in Haiti could be considered as the phase before of preparedness phase for 2010 earthquake in Haiti. 4.2 Different objectives for different phases As we have seen in section 4.1 there are more phases in the lifecycle of a disaster and each of these phases have different objectives and drivers during humanitarian aids operations. In this paragraph the aim is to understand and explain each phases and its objective and drivers. Studying the literature about humanitarian operations, in particularly humanitarian logistics operation, it has been possible to create a matrix, table number 4.1. Table 4.1 : Objectives, drivers and facility for each phases in humanitarian aids operations. Sudden onset Preparedness disasters Immediate Support Dismantling Response First Phase Second Phase Objectives - Prepare to - Assessment - The supply - The chain is - Passage to or situations be effective of demand chain is working at a national in future needs working, but is 100%, there control in still early to are more the - Start up the make a information, operations supply chain standardization here we need disaster response standardization Drivers Cost Time Time Cost Cost Planning Agility Agility Coordination Planning Coordination Coordination Constant Drivers Facility Quality, Security Cost Time Time Cost Cost optimization optimization optimization optimization optimization Planning 44 Planning In this matrix it is possible to understand each phases (preparedness, immediate response, first and second phase of support and dismantling) in a humanitarian aids operation. Now each phase is going to be explained. 4.2.1 Preparedness “A successful humanitarian operation mitigates the urgent needs of a population with a sustainable reduction of their vulnerability in the shortest amount of time and with the least amount of resources” (Jahre and Heigh, 2008). For this reason, according to A. Charles in 2010, the next phases will succeed if the response to the disaster won’t improvised but it has to be prepared as well as possible to be effective, this is the most important objective for the preparedness. According to Van Wassenhove (2006), preparedness consists of five key elements that have to be in place to produce effective results, and “these in turn lead to effective disaster management” (Charles, 2010). They are: 1. Knowledge management This is important to have a background about how move to response in a disaster, it is possible learning from previous disasters: capturing, codifying and transferring knowledge of logistics operations (Charles, 2010). 2. Financial resources “Preparing sufficient financial resources to prepare and initiate operations and ensure that they run as smoothly as possible” (Charles, 2010). 3. Human resources Selecting and training people who are capable of planning, coordinating, acting and intervening where is necessary. Many authors, such as Samii, Tomasini and Van Wassenhove have demonstrated how crucial this problem is. The shortage of qualified staff and the high level of turnover often have harmful consequences on the management of crises (Charles, 2010). 45 4. The community “Finding effective ways of collaborating with other key players such as governments, the military, businesses and other humanitarian organizations is not an easy task” (Charles, 2010). 5. Operations and process management Recognizing logistics as a central role in preparedness. Then setting up goods, agreements and the means needed to move resources quickly (Charles, 2010). According to Van Wassenhove (2010) there are five kinds of flow that we should consider during a humanitarian operation, these are materials, information, funds, people and knowledge flows. Each flow has its own goals. And it is important, during the preparedness phase, organizing the ground in the most effective way. Table 4.2 : Goals per flow (Van Wassenhove, 2010) Flow Goal • Material Cost, speed and quality (Boxes) • Information • (Bytes) • Funds Limited access, then overflow Relevance: tool for coordination Liquidity: going to soft bids to cash • (Bucks) Needs-based prioritization • People Getting staff to the field (Bodies) Knowledge • Making skills available to create solutions (Brains) All these goals are important for each phase that we are going to study. 46 4.2.2 Immediate response According to Kovács and Spens. (2007) “the main problem areas of the immediate response phase lie in coordinating supply, the unpredictability of demand, and the lastmile problem of transporting necessary items to disaster victims.” Here, in this phase, it is possible find some very important drivers as agility, coordination and time, these drivers guide the humanitarian aids operations during the immediate response phase. The first driver that we are going to study is the agility, indeed it is fundamental because when you are operating in high uncertain conditions and when the stakes of the success are human lives you can’t have a gap between capacity and needs and therefore it is of prime importance to ensure an adequate level of service at lesser costs (Charles, 2010) and time. The second important driver is the coordination. There is an abundance of aid agencies focusing on relief after natural disasters (Long and Wood, 1995) and the cluster approach is used for “diverse functions, including sheltering, logistics and water and sanitation, can be viewed as an effort to achieve functional coordination” (Jahre and Jensen, 2010) so we can understand that it is very important when we are in a humanitarian aids operation where there are a lot of actors employed at the same time. It is important to note that the coordination is a fundamental driver present in each of three phases, from immediate response to the end of the support phase. Both of the drivers we have seen are linked to the third and final driver: the time. According to Martinez, Stapleton and Van Wassenhove’s research in 2010, models for aids distribution have been developed by Long and Wood (1995), Wiswanatah and Peeta (2003), Ozdamar et al. (2004), Barbarosoglu and Arda (2004), Craft et al. (2005), Miller et al. (2006), Jia et al. (2007), Sheu (2007), Tzeng et al. (2007), Yi and Kumar (2007), Campbell et al. (2008), Balzik et al. (2008), Lodree and Taskin (2008), Beraldi and Bruni (2009) and Lee et al. (2009) with the objectives of minimizing time to respond or maximizing demand coverage. 47 4.2.3 Support or disaster recovery Sustainment is considered the phase when the aid and the aid infrastructure are employed fully for the period of responding to the crisis, while the rump up (immediate response) is when aid and infrastructure (assets and staff) are deployed to the area (Maspero and Ittmann, 2008). From this sentence it has been proposed of splitting in two phases the disaster recovery as there are different objectives for each phase according to Marlin U. Thomas (2002) “during this phase the nature of the operation and logistics requirements can change with the tempo and operational conditions but the basic processes and structure remain in place”, so the supply chain is working but in different modes: • First phase: After the immediate responses, regional actors can begin to aid victims in the location of their family and friends (Lamont, 2005). In the first phase the supply chain starts to work at 100%. • Second phase: this phase could be called the reconstruction phase, according to Kovács and Spens (2007), it is important as disasters can have long-term effects on a region. In this phase we have more information about the disaster, indeed is easier that we have a complete vision about the situation, this is important because the disaster prevention plans need to be revised to include things that have been learned from the current disaster (Thomas, 2003). This sharing has been made following division in phases made by Kovács and Spens in 2007. They wrote that “aid agencies have created a phased relief response which typically occurs in three phases: seven-day, 30-day, and 90-day. During the first phase of the emergency, e.g. flyaway kits are provided. These can sustain up to 2,000 people for seven days. The second phase involves sending family survival kits, which can support up to 5,000 people for 30 days. The third phase is related to reconstruction and it involves long-term rehabilitation”. The main difference from this ideas is about the first two phases, indeed they are joint in an unique phase for more or less forty days. 48 This division brings to different objective and drivers for each phase: • During the first phase the drivers are agility, coordination and time as in the immediate response phase. This happens because the supply chain is working, but is still early to make a standardization because it needs more information about the disaster. So in this situation we need agility, indeed supply chain agility is usually defined as the ability to respond to unanticipated changes (Sheffi, 2004). As we have seen in immediate response phase, second important driver is the coordination, indeed even in this phase there is an abundance of aid agencies focusing on relief after natural disasters (Long and Wood, 1995). Even in this phase cluster approach is very significant and it is used for “diverse functions, including sheltering, logistics and water and sanitation, can be viewed as an effort to achieve functional coordination” (Jahre and Jensen, 2010). The time driver is important as in the immediate response phase. • During the second phase we can find different drivers. Indeed in this phase, like the previous phases, the coordination is a significant driver because there are still a lot of actors, seen as agencies and organizations, present in the zone of the disaster. The main difference is that in this phase the disaster happened a lot of time before, estimable in forty days, and so we can have many information more to find a standardization and so a cost minimizing, indeed Van Wassenhove in 2008 considered the cost optimization as not the primary objective for the others phases when is most important the minimizing of the time. According to Maspero and Ittmann, in 2008, “the aid and the aid infrastructure are employed fully for the period of responding to the crisis”, for this reason it is possible to say that the chain is working at 100% and it is possible to find the cost optimization with a route standardization. It is important to note how the standardization could be very important even during all humanitarian operation long. Indeed according to Van Wassenhove (2008) the definition of standardization is “using common design and processes as a way to shorten 49 lead time, reduces inventory levels and increase forecast accuracy”. It is important to note that it’s possible to apply it to: - parts: common parts using across many products; - processes: that apply to different products; - products: customizing the product as late as possible; - procurement: to benefit from buying power or reduce the negative impact of variability - information: to have standards of how information should be collected, processed, shared and reported. 4.2.4 Dismantling The dismantling phase is the ramp down in the Life span of a disaster in figure 4.1 and it is “when assets are gradually reduced and withdraw from the area to be redeployed elsewhere” (Maspero and Ittmann, 2008). It is important to note “how the ramp down phase is not signal the end of the need for aid, and it is normal for developmental and long-term aid to the ramp up in the area to complement the ramping down of the emergency response” (Maspero and Ittmann, 2008). “In the ramp down phase, when each individual agency is focused on managing the handover and exit, coordination will still happen but only occasionally and, in a sense, by default” (Van Wassenhove, 2010). According to Van Wassenhove (2010) in the last phase is very important “start to looking at buying more relief goods locally”, this happens because it is important during the dismantling to help the restart of local economy as it was before the natural disaster. 4.2.5 Constant drivers As it is possible to see in the table 4.1 there are even some constant drivers in the humanitarian aids operations. The drivers that we have found are Security and Quality. The first one we are going to study is the security. According to Van Wassenhove (2010) for this driver it is possible to make an example, the same we have made in the introduction chapter. Indeed we can take the situation of humanitarian activities in 50 Serbian-controlled Bosnia on 1993. In that situation Sodako Ogata, High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), decided to suspend all the humanitarian activities in Balkan area. The Sodako’s decision was taken because there weren’t safe conditions for the humanitarian staff that was working in that area. The situation changed few days later, safer conditions were created and the humanitarian aid restarted. The importance of that decision anyway is basilar to understand the security driver. Indeed for all the organizations it is important to let their operators work in safe areas, if this condition doesn’t work it would be impossible for humanitarian organizations to work in the humanitarian space and so humanitarian purposes. The second constant driver considered is the quality. Indeed according to Dufour, de Geoffroy, Maury and Grünewald (2004) experience of humanitarian crises of the 1990s, notably in Rwanda (1994), have led to increasing awareness among aid agencies that Il ne suffit pas de faire le bien, il faut le bien faire (according to French Enlightenment philosophe Denis Diderot: ‘It is not enough to do good, it must be done well.’). For these reasons there are tools as the Sphere Project handbook, Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Disaster Response, or the alternative Quality Project, based on The Quality COMPAS tool. These tools are used by humanitarian organizations to ‘improve the quality of assistance provided to people affected by disasters, and to enhance the accountability of the humanitarian system in disaster response’ (Sphere Handbook, 2003). Furthermore there are others humanitarian drivers that it is possible to find in humanitarian aids operations. According to Charles (2010) “humanitarian supply chains need flexibility, effectiveness and responsiveness to enter the arena”. Even the reliability is important seen as the quality of the supply chain. These drivers, jointly to the others, can give an idea about how complex could be the humanitarian field. 4.2.6 Facility As facility we consider all the operations or the services that we should meet if we want satisfy the operation drivers. In the facility we have considered there are cost or time optimization and planning. 51 Cost and time optimizations are made to meet the objectives and the drivers of each phase. Time optimization could be used in immediate response phase and in the first phase of the support while cost optimization could be used in second phase of the support, dismantling and preparedness. It is possible to use even cost optimization when we speak about time, as we will see after. This is possible putting time as a cost and considering unsatisfied demand as a cost itself. As we have already seen, according to Martinez, Stapleton and Van Wassenhove’s research in 2010, models for aids distribution have been developed by Long and Wood (1995), Wiswanatah and Peeta (2003), Ozdamar et al. (2004), Barbarosoglu and Arda (2004), Craft et al. (2005), Miller et al. (2006), Jia et al. (2007), Sheu (2007), Tzeng et al. (2007), Yi and Kumar (2007), Campbell et al. (2008), Balzik et al. (2008), Lodree and Taskin (2008), Beraldi and Bruni (2009) and Lee et al. (2009) with the objectives of minimizing time and cost to respond or maximizing demand coverage. Another facility that we can use to meet the objectives and the drivers in humanitarian operations is the planning. It has to be used especially in preparedness and during dismantling phases. According to Kovàcs and Spens (2007) the first phase correspond to strategic planning to prepare for emergency projects, and actual project planning when the disaster strikes (Long, 1997). Just for example “Evacuation plans can be developed and evacuation can be trained well in advance for such disasters” (Nisha de Silva, 2001) and a lack of coordination often leads to confusion at the last mile (Murray, 2005). It is important to note how it is important even in dismantling phase that could be seen as the beginning of preparedness phase. In figure 4.4 it is possible to note the timescale of five phases in the sudden onset disasters but it is important to understand that it is just an estimate indeed it is not always possible be absolute in terms of the timescale of these five elements. Even it is important to know that this timescale is different if we consider slow onset disasters, it is possible to see an estimation of it in figure 4.3. 52 Figure 4.4 : Abstract of the chapter, the figure represent the lifecycle of a humanitarian operation, the time scale and the table with the objectives, drivers and faclity. . 53 54 5 Methods “The purpose of a humanitarian relief chain is to rapidly provide the appropriate emergency supplies to people affected by natural and manmade disasters so as to minimize human suffering and death.” (Balcik et al., 2008b) Studying the humanitarian logistics operations we can note how much is important the distribution of the aids in the last mile of the supply chain and how could be difficult make it. It is due by many problems and by the high level of uncertain present in humanitarian field. For these reasons the work has been developed following some criteria and with some restrains that we are going to explain. 5.1 The phase of the model At first it was important to understand the problem, the distribution, and all the drivers present in it as we have done in the previous chapters. Understanding them, the second step is to say in which part of the lifecycle we want to put our discussion because, as we have studied in the previous chapter, each lifecycle phase has its drivers and its objectives. The phase chosen for this paper is the first part of the sustainment phase, as it is possible to see in the picture 5.1. For this choice the model that we are going to develop will have as main objective the minimization of the costs in a time optimization. So we are going to minimize the cost associated to each routes that the trucks will follow jointly with the minimization of the cost associated to unsatisfied and late-satisfied demand for different types of relief supplies. This formulation consider the time like a cost and his minimization would be the minimization of suffering and loss of life during a humanitarian aids operation. 55 Figure 5.1 : The phase where our formulation can be used in the humanitarian operations lifecycle. 5.2 Data and assumptions of the problem formulation According to Balcik et al. (2008b) the last mile distribution problem determines the best resource allocation among potential aid recipients in disaster affected areas that minimizes the cost of logistics operations, while maximizing the benefits to aid recipients. More specifically, the last mile distribution problem determines delivery 56 schedules, vehicle routes, and the amount of emergency supplies delivered to demand locations during disaster relief operations. The main problems in the application of last mile distribution in humanitarian operations are about unpredictability of resources (time, personnel, transportation) and the high stakes associated with relief operations (suffering and/or loss of life). In 2008 Huseyin Onur Mete and Zelda B. Zabinsky proposed a stochastic programming model to select, in preparation for disasters, the storage locations of medical supplies and required inventory levels for each type of medical supply. In this model we are going to consider the distribution of humanitarian aids at an LDC to a number of demand points in its service region. Following the idea of Balcik et al. (2008b) LDCs are usually established post disaster in locations that have access to the affected regions and they have commonly minimal interaction among them. An LDC may be a tent, a prefabricated unit, or an existing facility (e.g., school, church, warehouse). We assume that the location of the LDC is predetermined and its capacity is sufficient to serve its service region. According to Balcik et al. (2008) in this model we consider the demand as made by two main groups, Type 1 and Type 2, with different demand characteristics. Type 1 items are critical items like tents, blankets, terry cans and mosquito nets. This kind of demand is usually very large at the beginning of the humanitarian operations and for this reason could be difficult to deliver it. So it has been decided to put a penalty for each unit of unsatisfied demand. We assume that no type 1 inventory is present at any demand location. Type 2 items are different from Type 1 items, because they are consumed regularly and their demand occurs periodically over the planning horizon (e.g., food, hygiene kits). If we can’t satisfy it we can’t accumulate it, indeed the unsatisfied demand is lost and penalty costs accrue for each unit of lost demand. In this case we don’t consider the distribution of the water, indeed it needs different supply features. According to Balcik et al. (2008b) we assume that the vehicle fleet is comprised of a limited number of vehicles with different capacity, speed, and compatibility with various arcs in the network. In the model just two types of vehicle are consider. We 57 assume that each vehicle can carry both Type 1 and 2 items and each vehicle can complete multiple deliveries in a single planning period and each demand location can be visited multiple times (with the same or different vehicles) in the same planning period. Furthermore some roads may be unavailable due to the destructive effects of a disaster, which would affect vehicle choice and delivery routes. We will use a factor ( ) to explain which is the condition of each route as traffic or as physical condition, this factor will influence the cost of a route. According to Balcik et al. (2008b) the planning horizon is variable and unknown a priori. We assume that the planning horizon begins once the LDC is able to begin delivering relief supplies to demand locations and it ends when the demand for both types of items are completed (or supply is exhausted). Therefore, the planning horizon parameter used in our model will be the worst case estimated, and it will terminate when the delivery of relief supplies will be completed. We will construct a plan for long-term relief distribution based on available information, but only execute the plan for the coming planning period. The plans will be updated at the beginning of a planning period if new information will be obtained regarding resource or demand levels for any future planning period. The planning period will be determined by decision-makers according to the characteristics of the problem. For ease of presentation, we’ll assume the planning period will be one day in the problem formulation. 58 6 Last mile distribution “Last mile distribution is the final stage of the relief chain; it refers to delivery of relief supplies from LDCs to the people in the affected areas (demand locations).The most significant logistical problems in the last mile generally stem from the limitations related to transportation resources and emergency supplies, difficulties due to damaged transportation infrastructure, and lack of coordination among relief actors. It is challenging for relief agencies to develop effective and efficient distribution plans in such a complex environment while simultaneously achieving a coordinated response.” (Balcik et al., 2008b) Transportation is the major component of disaster relief operations. Post-disaster transportation, especially across the “last mile”, can be particularly challenging for relief agencies. The challenge arises from damaged infrastructure, limited transportation resources and the sheer amounts and bulk of supplies to be transported (Balcik et al., 2008b). According to Balcik et al. the task is made more difficult for the strict financial and time limitations, making cost-efficient vehicle routing decision important. For these reasons we are going to study the Last Mile distribution problem and its application in the Haitian case. 6.1 Structure of the relief chain in Last Mile The structure of the supply chain in the Last Mile is very important because, knowing it, it is possible to understand how the aids move in the humanitarian operations and which are the places where aids arrive, or are stored, sorted, transferred and which are the local distribution centers where aids are distributed to beneficiaries. 59 Figure 6.1 : Structure of the relief chain (Balcik et al., 2008b) The logistics situation that we can typically find in a disaster relief operation is seen in figure 6.1. Indeed it is possible to find at first a primary hub, usually seaports or airports, where humanitarian aids arrive from all parts of the world. The second step could be a central warehouse. In this place the humanitarian aids are stored, sorted and transferred to tertiary hubs. These tertiary hubs usually are local and temporary distribution centers. The tertiary hubs are even called LDCs, local distribution centers, and they are used to deliver aids to beneficiaries. 6.2 Introduction of the problem In this formulation we are going to consider a last mile distribution system. In this humanitarian operation there is a LDC store that distributes emergency relief aids to a number of demand locations using a fixed set of vehicles. We want to determine a delivery schedule for each vehicle and make inventory allocation decisions considering suppliers, vehicle capacity, and delivery time restrictions (Balcik et al., 2008b). To make it we want to minimize the sum of transportation costs (that consider even transportation times) and penalty costs for unsatisfied and late-satisfied demand for different types of relief supplies. 60 6.3 Literature review In the history of humanitarian logistics operations it is possible to find many examples of models for aids distribution. According to Balcik, Beamon, Smilowitz’s research in 2008 the most important steps considered in development of Last Mile distribution are due to some researches. It is possible to start with the literature review considering the Knott’s researches in 1987 and in 1988. He wanted to minimize cost as transportation or maximize the number of humanitarian aids beneficiaries in food deliveries. The next step was made by Haghai and Oh in 1996. They introduced in the problem formulation the time window. Indeed they wanted to minimize cost in transportation field, for example costs as vehicular or commodity flow, or costs as supply/demand carry-over and transfer costs, considering the time period in which the transport operation is planning. After some years in 2002 and in 2004 Barbarosoglu et al. studied operational scheduling in helicopter operations in humanitarian aids operations. They didn’t take it as a singular problem, indeed they split it into two sub problems, in which at first were made tactical decisions while in a second step were taken operational routing and loading resolutions. In the same years Ozdamar and colleagues, in 2004, studied a humanitarian logistics problem considering the distribution of multiple commodities from some supply centers to place closed the disaster areas. The aims of their model were to determine the scheduling of deliveries, with the quantities of loads for each route. They wanted to minimize of unsatisfied people over time and so they wanted to minimize the suffering for the people in the emergency relief operations. Another step was made by Angelis et al. in 2007. Indeed they studied for the World Food Programme (WFP) a scenario with more than one depot, routing and scheduling for many vehicles with different features in a humanitarian aids logistics operation. At the end in 2008 Balcik et al. developed a model that considered different kinds of demand in the last mile distribution contest, a first study was made in 1987 by Knott but it wasn’t developed analytically, that considered the complexity of the environment and the uncertain of the humanitarian operations. This study differs from the studies that we have seen because it considers even the status of the routes and their traffic situation when it is important to find the list of 61 candidate routes, furthermore in this study we are going to consider the penalty cost as directly proportional to unsatisfied demand, deliver by deliver. Table 6.1 : References of the literature review Approach Notes Knott References 1987 1988 Operations research heuristics with artificial intelligence techniques Haghai and Oh 1996 1997 Heuristic algorithms Barbarosoglu et al. 2002 Mixed integer programming model (MIP), that is solved using an iterative coordination heuristic The LP determines the number of trips for each camp to satisfy demand. The objective is to minimize the transportation cost or maximizing the amount of food delivered. This is a multi-commodity, multi-modal network flow problem. There is even a time window. The objective is to minimize the sum of the vehicular flow costs, commodity flow costs, supply/demand carry-over costs and transfer costs over all time periods considered. The problem is decomposed hierarchically into two sub-problems where tactical decisions are made in the top level and the operational routing and loading decisions are made in the second level for helicopter activities. Including relief network uncertainties The model expects a logistics problem for distributing multiple commodities from a number of supply centers to distribution centers The authors set a service level for food distribution and developed a linear integer-programming (IP) model that maximizes the total satisfied demand. The model integrates decisions about the location and inventory decisions. It considers multiple item types and it captures budgetary constraints and capacity restrictions. It has been developed analytically a model that considered different kinds of demand in the last mile distribution contest. furthermore it considers the complexity of the environment and the uncertain of the humanitarian operations. Ozdamar and Colleagues 2004 2004 Algorithm and heuristic Angelis et al. 2007 Linear integerprogramming (IP) Balcik et al. 2008a Mixed integer programming model (MIP) 2008b 62 6.4 Model formulation To make the model easier and more understandable, according to Balcik et al. (2008b) we can split the approach into two phases. Indeed we can consider a first phase to study the routes and the cost and the time associated to them. This is feasible taken the sets of demand and the set of the vehicles, with their own features (as velocity or time to loadunload), and the matrix with the distances among each point to find the list of candidate routes. So we can have the routes with their cost and duration and the set of demand locations visited on each route. The second phase is the last mile phase. In particular in this phase it is important to consider penalty costs features of each vehicle, for example when the capacity is less than the demand for each item in each location. The aim of this second step is to find the routes for each vehicle in the next time window and the amount of each item to be sent to the demand points minimizing the costs associated to unsatisfied demand and to the routes. In this section we are going study the mathematical formulation of the problem and how they have been studied, considering some aspects that can be used later in humanitarian logistics aids operations. 6.4.1 First phase In this phase we are going to study all possible delivery routes for each vehicle. The aim is to find all the possible candidate routes of the second phase. The first step for our model is to understand which could be the possible routes among the distribution points, it is possible to find them from a graphic as in figure 6.2. As distribution points here we consider all the points in the disaster area where we want deliver humanitarian aids to beneficiaries. 63 Figure 6.2 : Graphic with the set of the possible distribution centers in the humanitarian operation. The second step is to build a matrix with all the minimal distance between these distribution points. It is possible to make it using an heuristic algorithm. We can find a matrix as in table 6.2. Table 6.2 : Distances (in Km) between the nodes of the graph in figure 6.2 Distance Km A B C D E A 0 B C D E 0 0 0 0 According to Balcik et al. (2008b) some roads may be unavailable due to the destructive effects of a disaster, which would affect vehicle choice and delivery routes. We will use a factor ( ) to explain which is the condition of each route as traffic or as physical condition, this factor will influence the cost and the time of a route (see the table 6.3). 64 Table 6.3 : Conditions of each route. Condition A B C D E A 0 B C D E 0 0 0 0 The values of this matrix, table 6.3, can be chosen in function of physical condition of the route or in function of the traffic. These values are known at the beginning of the day. The values can be seen in table 6.4. This factors are used during the first phase to understand the real time and cost associated to a road. The real road time is: = ∗ and so it is possible to find the real cost for each route. The cost for each route will be found considering a factor that is the cost per unit of time and per kilometer. Table 6.4 : An example of factor ( ) that could be taken to explain the traffic or the physical condition of the routes and that will influence the time and the cost of the route. Factor Good practicability 1 Medium practicability 1,5 Low practicability 2 Very low practicability 5 Impracticality almost complete 10 Impracticality - After the second step we are able to find all the routes. We consider that all routes start in A, LDC established post disaster and which capacity is sufficient to serve its service region, and finish in the same A. So we can find all the 625 possible combinations of route for ours four distributions center and a local distribution center (LDC). 65 The lengths of the routes ( ) have been found as the amount of the distances between the nodes “i” touched by the route “r” we consider. It is possible to see this in the next formula: (1a) =∑ ( ) ∀ i ϵ N(r) where “i” is the set of all demand locations. Table 6.5 : Routes matrix. Name route Aa Aba Aca Ada Aea Acba I N - In the routes matrix we can see all the possible routes that can be used by our vehicles during humanitarian aids operations. Some of them could be repeated and so we should delete them, taken the less cost ones. After this steps we are going to have some candidate routes that can be used in the distribution optimization. In the third step we consider the features of the vehicle, as velocity and time to load and download, jointly we consider the cost for the routes for the transport for each vehicle. In the model just two models of vehicle are considered, with different speeds, costs and capacities. At the end we can find a list of candidate routes and for each route: the name (with the set of demand locations visited), time and cost for all of vehicles we consider. 66 This phase is over and, according to Balcik et al. (2008b), it has to be executes again just if there are structural changes in the network and vehicle fleet. 6.4.2 Second phase Now we have all the candidate routes. The next step will be to determine the scheduling of deliveries (when take a route and with which kind of vehicle), the quantities of loads for each vehicle of the routes, the quantities of loads for each type of item. For these reasons it is important to make a model as the model we are going to study. The base idea for this model has been taken by “Last mile distribution in humanitarian relief”, Balcik, B., Beamon, B.M., Smilowitz, K., 2008. It was developed considering a different penalty cost for the unsatisfied demand and considering that all the vehicles used are two types of vehicle with different features. The final objective of this model will be to minimize the cost associated to each route jointly the minimization of the cost, penalty cost, associated to unsatisfied demand. This has been studied to minimize the time, seen as cost, in the distribution minimizing the sufferings and lives lost for the aids beneficiaries. At first we are going to assume the planning period will be one day in the problem formulation. This choice is made because the period we want to study is considered a period with a high uncertainty and with a lot of new information each day. For this reason it could be impossible to try to made a plan for a long time horizons. The second data we need are the set of candidate routes that we found in the first phase. These are all the routes that we can use in this second phase and for each of those we know the sets of demand they touch and the time and the cost associated to them for each kind of vehicle. For this reason in the theory we should consider even the set of vehicles present in the disaster area because they can have different features, for example capacity and velocity and costs, and for these they can have different impacts in the humanitarian relief operation. Furthermore different types of vehicles can be used in different zones in function of the landscape situation. 67 As we have seen in the first phase, in the second phase is important to understand where are the demand points, set of all demand locations, because these will be all the points in the disaster area where humanitarian operators have to supply the humanitarian aids. At last we should consider which types of items are requested in this demand points, knowing that there are 2 types of demand which different features. Routing and vehicles parameters There are some parameters that we have to consider. At first we should consider parameters as cost and time (as a fraction of a day) of each route for each kind of vehicle. These differ each other because each vehicles has different features and so different impact in the logistics operations. The matrixes with this kind of data are the outputs of the first phase. Another feature that it is important to consider is the capacity of the vehicles that are an input for the second phase. This is important because the capacity of the vehicles is not equal to infinity and so they have this constrain. Demand parameters As well as the demand points, set of all demand locations, demands of type 1 an type 2 in each locations are very important. The real problem is that these two parameters are unknown a priori and for this reason it is important to understand the distribution of the population to understand and quantify them. Such discourse could be done for the cost factor for unsatisfied type 1 and 2 demand at each location. In the model we study we consider the penalty cost as in function of the distribution of the damage. So the costs will be more expensive in those zones where has been the major damage, this is used to parameterize the worst situation in which the beneficiaries are living. 68 Delivery and Routing decision variables In the model there are even some variables we have to consider. We call them Delivery and Routing decision variables. The first one is the amount of demand of type 1 or 2 delivered to the location in one day. This variable is very important because by that we can know the fraction of unsatisfied demand, for each type of demand, at the location we are interested studying even the inventory level of the item 2 in the location, because the item 2 can be stored. So the last variable we are going to study is a variable we can call X, and it says us if the route is used or not. Studying this variable we can know, in the end, which are the routes we will use in a day for the supplies. Objective function As we have seen in this chapter we want to find all the routes that can minimize the total cost for the operations and that can maximize the number of the deliveries and so the number of beneficiaries. (1b) ( ) = ( !" # + % & "' ) In the simple formula (1b) it is possible to see the objective of ours minimization, a function with both the cost of the routes and the cost for the penalties due to unsatisfied demand. The cost for unsatisfied demand is due to the difficulties linked to the deliveries, indeed sometimes it is possible to have too many deliveries to satisfy them during the window time. This cost is associated to the damage, seen as a cost factor, and the people who need this kind of delivery. It is possible to understand this formula in the next paragraph when the objective function (1c) is explained. Furthermore the route costs are taken by the duration of each routes for a factor that considers how much is the cost per second and per kilometer. 69 The formula (1c) has some constraints. Indeed it has to follow some structural and logical limits of the system. At first the supplies have to be less or equal than the quantity of the items present in the LDC, it is impossible to deliver more than the quantity that we have in the warehouse. Furthermore the deliveries have to consider the capacity of the vehicles and so there is a limit in the quantity delivered each day. Another important constraint is the time. Indeed we consider the time to deliver as a fraction of a day and so it is impossible to take routes for more than one day. When we consider more deliveries in a day we don’t want that they take more time than a day. More constraints are considered just in the mathematical model. At the end of this second phase we have all the routes that our set of vehicles will make each day to deliver the quantity of aids. We want to minimize the objective function we have seen. This second phase, according to Balcik et al. (2008b), has to be used for the coming periods until new information become available. 6.5 Mathematical formulation 6.5.1 Objective function (1c) ((() . "∈- *∈, • • ) / * * / "* + ( ( ( 0 "1 " 25(6) "24 23 is the cost of route r for vehicle k є K. "* is the routing decision variable. It is 1 if the route r є R is used by the vehicle k є K on the day t є T, otherwise it is 0. • 7 " is the penalty cost factor for unsatisfied type e demand at location i є N on the day t є T. • 70 1 " is the unsatisfied type e demand at location i є N on the day t є T. 6.5.2 Constraints (1d) 1 8" = :;8 − ( : • • " ( ( @8 >* A ( ) >?8 * , ∀ i ϵ N, t ϵ T ; is the demand of the type e at location i є N. @ >* is the amount of the type e demand delivered to location i є N on the day t є T by the vehicle k є K via route r є R. (1e) 1 B" = :;B + C B,"E8 − ( : • ( @ B"* − C B" A ( ) * , ∀ i ϵ N, t ϵ T C B" is the inventory level of the type 2 demand at location i є N at the beginning of day t є T. (1f) ( ( ( @8 "* ≥ ;8 : 25(6) *2F "24 ∀iϵN (1g) " ( ( ( (@ 2H • 25(6) >?8 *2F >* " ≤ ( J> >?8 ∀ t ϵ T, e ϵ E J> is the amount of the of the type e є E relief supplies arriving to the LDC at the beginning of day t є T. 71 (1h) ( (@ 25(6) • 23 "* ≤ K* / "* ∀ r ϵ R, t ϵ T, k ϵ K L* is the capacity of the vehicle k є K. (1i) (/ 2H • "* M * ≤1 M * is the time to make the route r є R by the vehicle k є K. ∀ t ϵ T, k ϵ K (1j) 0 ≤ 1 " ≤ 70 • 70 is the number of the beneficiaries need the aids. ∀ i ϵ N, t ϵ T, e ϵ E (1k) C B8 = 0 ∀iϵN (1l) C B" ≥ 0 ∀ i ϵ N, t ϵ T (1m) @ 72 "* ≥0 ∀ i ϵ N, r ϵ R, t ϵ T, k ϵ K, e ϵ E (1n) / "* = P0,1Q ∀ r ϵ R, t ϵ T, k ϵ K Table 6.6 : Main differences between Balcik et al. and Peretti model. Factor of route conditions Penalty cost for unsatisfied demand Factor of decision Balcik et al. (2008b) No Present R" It is a fixed factor, it is the maximum penalty cost for each day and each item. The factor is studied a priori and considers the percentage of unsatisfied people and the cost for all whole people in the area Peretti (2011) 0 "1 " Penalty cost is proportional to the people (S) that need the aids for penalty cost (P) associated to each person. The main factor considered is They decide how deliver 0 " 1 " , that studies all the following the parameter R" , beneficiaries (S) that need that is fixed and doesn’t the supplies and their change during the day. suffering level (P) considered as a cost, the factor changes after each delivery because S changes. 73 74 7 Haitian case “The impact of a disaster depends not only on the nature and the intensity of the disaster, but also on its location. The same earthquake around San Francisco, where buildings are built with specific materials and local resources are prepared to respond, will not have the same impact as one that strikes a poor, unprepared country such as Haiti […]. It also depends on the population density”. (Charles, 2010) On January 12th 2010, at 16:53 local time, an earthquake measured 7.0 of magnitude on the Richter scale hit Haiti. This caused a high level of destruction that required an elevate effort for the humanitarian operators to respond. Figure 7.1 : Map of Haiti where it is possible to see the most important cities. This situation was defined as “the largest humanitarian operation ever carried out in a single country” (IFRC 09/02/2010). It was reported the urgent need of many supplies as medical facilities, food, clean water, emergency shelter and logistics and 75 telecommunications because after the disaster there were many victims and huge damages (logcluster.org). Table 7.1 : Global Figures about Haiti earthquake in January 2010 ( http://europa.eu/ ). Global Figures 222.750 people dead 1.7 million people left homeless 60% of hospitals destroyed Around 5000 schools destroyed (23% of the total of Haiti) 3 million people affected (nearly one third of the population) Total impact cost around USD 7.8 billion (€5.9 billion) According to the European Union (http://europa.eu/press_room/pdf/factsheet_haiti _en.pdf), the capital was destroyed, the infrastructures were devastated and the government and humanitarian agencies on the ground lost a lot of staff, resources and facilities. Post-earthquake aid therefore had to be delivered in an environment characterized by numerous logistical, infrastructure, social and political challenges. For these reason we have chosen the Haitian case to face the discussion about the importance of an optimization in the humanitarian aids operations. All the challenges presented in this humanitarian operation, for example logistics ones, are subjected to many constraints that usually are not present in the commercial supply chains. 7.1 Infrastructures and damage Haiti was considered the poorest country in the western hemisphere (Pedraza Martinez et al., 2010) because the 80% of the population, more than 9 million inhabitants, lives with less than two dollars per day and the unemployment rate was almost 70%. Furthermore it was subjected to other disasters in the last years, just for example six hurricanes since 2007. 76 The poor quality of the Haitian infrastructure were considered insufficiency. Indeed many building were made with not conforming construction materials and they were without foundations. Furthermore according to CIA World Fact Book, almost 76% of 4160 Km of roads were unpaved in the country. At last, according to IFRC only 50% of the population had permanent access to clean water. After the natural disaster in Haiti it was possible to find an high level of damage. According to IFRC the earthquake destroyed approximately 75% of the building in the capital, Port au Prince, and Leogane and it destroyed more or less 40-50% of the buildings in Carrefour and Jacmel. Many others problem were due to the condition of the roads. For example the main roads to go to the capital coming from the seaport, the airport and the Dominican Republic, just not in perfect conditions before the disaster, were destroyed by the seism. Indeed the earthquake made the transportation network not operational. In the destroyed buildings 60% of the existing hospitals were considered. Another problem was due to the bottlenecks. Indeed the days after the disaster it was possible to use just few infrastructures, as routes or hospitals or airports, a so they were completely supersaturated. This high level of damage in infrastructures and the high level of bottlenecks concurred to increase the difficulties during the operations because the humanitarian operators couldn’t easily find positions to place for example hub or distributions centers or good candidate routes for the distributions. As it has been said in chapter 1, the area of humanitarian aid operations is a particular field, full of difficulties, in which we can find logistics operations: the Haitian case can be a perfect example of this kind of situation. 77 Figure 7.2 : The map of Haiti with the epicenter of the earthquake. It is possible to see how closed it was to the capital Port au Prince (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/). 7.2 Port-au-Prince Port au prince is the capital and the most important city of Haiti. In this city 900.000 person live with a high density, more or less 25.000 people each square kilometers. The epicenter of the earthquake was registered almost 25 kilometers far from the capital. The direction was west-southwest. It is possible to see the situation in the figure 7.1. This city has been chosen for its features. Indeed, in the disaster area, it is the biggest city with all the needs and the typical problems of a humanitarian operation. After the disaster indeed there was a high level of damage with a lot of victims and homeless’. In a situation like this it is possible even to consider all the typical hubs present in the humanitarian supply chain and find all the features that we have studied in the previous chapters. 78 7.2.1 Haiti supply chain In the humanitarian operation in Haiti, according to Pedraza Martinez et al., we know that WFP, leader of the logistics cluster, supports relief operations in the Central America region with a logistics hub in San Salvador. For this reason we can consider San Salvador as the primary hub in this humanitarian operation. As secondary hub it is possible to study one of the three access points to the Port au Prince. These access points are: the airport, the seaports and the roads. The choice has been focused on the airport. It could be considered even the seaport, but it has been decided to consider the airport because in the first phase of sustainment phase it was available and its capacity as enough for the deliveries we want consider. Indeed it should be given importance that studying official WFP documents it is possible to note that for the first days after the natural disaster the sea port was damaged. The others access points to Haiti, according to Pedraza Martinez et al., are two roads that connect Santo Domingo to Port au Prince but they have an average time travelling of 8 hours and very limited refueling capacity after crossing the border into Haiti. It is possible to choose the first two hubs in function of the infrastructures that has been made in the preparedness phase (for example San Salvador hub) and that we know can support the efforts during all the operations (for example Airport or Seaport hub when it will be operative). So, as it is possible to see in the chapter 6.1, the structure of the supply chain in the Last Mile is very important because, by knowing it, it is possible to understand how the aids move in the humanitarian operations and which are the places where aids arrive, or are stored, sorted, transferred and which are the local distribution centers where aids are distributed to beneficiaries. 79 Figure 7.3 Humanitarian supply chain in Haiti. 80 8 Discussion chapter “In the wake of the devastating earthquake in Haiti, one of the aftershocks facing the country is not seismic in nature, but concerns the struggle to coordinate relief efforts in order to reach those in need most effectively.” (Fritz Institute, 2005) In the next section the case of Haiti in Last Mile logistics operations will be studied. The Last Mile and Humanitarian features, we studied in the previous chapters, jointly with Haitian ones will be faced together. 8.1 Demand points in Haiti The first things that we want to study in a humanitarian logistics operation are the demand points. Indeed it is very important to know where are the positions of the demands because in the next steps they will influence all the decisions, as just for example the positions of the LDC or the quantity of the infrastructures we need and the distribution points. The quantify demand operations are ones of the most important and difficult in a post disaster situation. Anyway it is possible to study the disaster jointly with the distribution of the people in the area to find the distribution of the demands. 81 Table 8.1 : Legends of the figure 8.1 to see the damage and the distribution of the population in the zone of Port au prince (http://ec.europa.eu/). If we consider the case of Haiti, and the Port au Prince situation, we can study all the information about the city, building and roads for example, jointly to the natural disaster position to understand which could be the areas with the worst damage in the city. Analizing it, it is possible to study the population. We are helped by the census made in 2003 (made after one of the hurricanes that hit the island and that made a lot of damages in the country) and by the WFP that cure the logistic cluster and its website (www.logcluster.org). In this case we can focus on Port au Prince, as it is possible to see from the figure 8.1, the area with the wrost damage, so we can know more or less which are the areas that need more supplies. 82 Figure 8.1 : Image of the damage and the distribution of the population in the zone of Port au prince (http://ec.europa.eu/). After this step, where it is possible to know where are the demand points, there is another important and critical point. The point is to know how much is the demand of each type of item in each location. This is critical because it is very difficult to understand it in this phase because there are not so many information. One of the answer that it is possible to use is to study the population that lives in the area in function of the damage. Knowing it, studying the number of the people living in the area it is possible to approximate the beneficiaries that need relief. (www.geohive.com) This data will be very useful, because, as we have seen in the Last mile distribution chapter, number 6, it is possible to use it as the data about the demand of aids to know how many deliveries have to be done to the demand point and the volume of these deliveries. 83 Another important step in Haiti for the distribution is the quantification of the penalty cost for unsatisfied demand. The main reason of this step is that sometimes the infrastructures are not enough to satisfy the demand. In the case of Haiti, the days and the weeks after the earthquake, many infrastructures were damaged and they can’t work fully, for example the seaport, the roads and distribution infrastructures. For this reason it is important understand which is the level of the emergency in each demand point and after that it is important put the right cost for each situation. Doing this, it is possible make a sort of priority of the deliveries. Indeed if we consider all the demand points we will study even the level of suffering and dying that could happen if we don’t deliver the aids at the right time in the right place. In the case of Haiti the prioritization could be made in function of the number of the people that need relief, because it very hard to find information about the distribution of the damage without any meetings or visits around the earthquake area. This step is very both important and critical. Indeed if the costs are quantified in the wrong way all the distribution can be wrong. 8.2 LDCs location and capacity In the situation in Haiti it is possible to decide the LDCs position considering the distribution of the population and the capacity, in terms of transport and storage. Indeed it is important that the LDC has been placed in a place directly and easily refillable by the secondary hub. In Haitian case we consider as the tertiary hub in Port au Prince a hub closed to the airport (secondary hub) and we assume that its capacity is sufficient to serve the city. If it was not enough, it is important to study others centers with the right features to serve the city. As we saw in the previous chapter, here it is important, starting from the demand distribution, to understand which kinds of features Local Distribution Centers should have. The features we need are the position and the capacity of these hubs. For the position it is possible to decide it studying the distribution of the demand and assuming that its capacity could be sufficient to serve the region. But the problem is more 84 complex. Indeed, according to Balcik et al. (2008b) the selection of a LDC has to consider many factors, for example security and safety and transportation infrastructure. For these reasons, the positioning of the LDCs is an important problem and it has to be studied jointly and deeply with all the operation because it affects the performance of all the distribution operations. 8.3 Distance matrix From the figure 7.4 it is possible to understand where is it focused the demand. Indeed five points have been found in Port au Prince, visible in figure 7.5: Airport (A), Carrefour (B), Torgeau (C), Pétionville (D) and Delmas (E). Figure 8.2 : Demand points in Port au Prince. The figure 8.2 is one of the steps to find the matrix of distances as the table 6.2. Indeed, using a program such as Google map, it is possible to know all the distances between the nodes in Haiti. These are sure data, indeed they are taken by the real status of the roads in Port au Prince by Google map program. 85 Table 8.2 : Distances (in Km) between the nodes of the figure 8.2 about demand points in Port au Prince (www.maps.google.it). Distances Km A B C D E A 0 13 7,5 4,3 8 B 13 0 8,6 16,6 14,1 C 7,5 8,6 0 3,2 6,1 D 4,3 16,6 3,2 0 4,5 D 8 14,1 6,1 4,5 0 From this matrix it is possible to find all the routes, with the time and the cost for each route. For the time of the routes it is also important to consider load and download time. Next step would be to consider the routes conditions. It is very important in an operation like Haiti, indeed the status of the roads could be often not so good. Table 8.3 : Estimated route conditions in Haitian case. Conditions A B C D E A 0 1,5 2 1 1,5 B 1,5 0 1,5 1,5 1 C 2 1,5 0 2 2 D 1 1,5 2 0 1 E 1,5 1 2 1 0 This factor allows to balance the costs and the times in function of the condition of the roads. Indeed if a road has a low practicality the time to make it has to be different by the time to make it in normal conditions. In this case this factor has been estimated by some news about the roads taken by Logistic cluster website (table 8.3). Considering all these factors it is possible to find all the candidate routes in the area that can be used for the distribution, they are 64. In the list of candidates routes we can delete the routes with high cost. Indeed all the routes with high cost have even hightime path. So it is possible to find 16 routes that we can consider as candidate routes. It is important to note how usually, when we have to deliver a high quantity of aids, the most important routes are the direct routes. Indeed when the quantity of items to deliver 86 is high it is better to supply them directly and try to make more direct deliveries than more-nodes ones. 8.4 Last mile features in Haiti In Haiti earthquake one of the biggest problem was the uncertain of the data. This happens when the data changed quickly because there are always more information. For this reason it is important to consider a not long time horizon. And it is important to understand how much it could change in just few days. Indeed in this paper it has been decided to take a time horizon one day long, and considering all the deliveries even for the days just in case of no-new information. The aids that needed Haiti were, according to Pedraza Martinez et al., both food, medical and shelter-no food items. For this reason it is possible to consider them as two main groups of demand, Type 1 and Type 2. Type 1 items are critical items like tents, blankets, terry cans and mosquito nets (shelter-no food items). And if there is a new demand of this type of demand it is possible to put in the model as one day more demand with Type 1 features. Type 2 items are different from Type 1 items, because they are consumed regularly and their demand occurs periodically over the planning horizon (e.g., food, hygiene and medical kits). The increase of this kind of demand would say that it has been delivered each day until the end of the crisis. In documents taken at the web site www. logcluster.org it is possible to note which kinds of truck have been used in humanitarian logistics operations in Haiti and how many vehicles are present in the area that could be used for the logistics relief operations. These vehicles have different features. It has been decided to consider only two kinds of vehicles, with different features. This simplification has been taken to make the comprehension easier than considering all of the different vehicles that could change at each time. But it is important to note that the different features are considered and this has to be seen just as simplification in the management of the distribution. 87 8.5 Program proposed As it has been seen in the previous paragraphs, there are many critical features in humanitarian logistics operations and it could be very difficult to manage them during the operations without a well-planned plan or a very well organized intervention. For this reason is going to propose a program to suggest a better distribution in a so critical environment. Indeed in the humanitarian operations, as we have studied in previous chapters, one of the most critical driver is the time and it is very important to optimize it jointly with the maximization of the relief distribution to the beneficiaries. It is possible to see the Program as attachment 1 at the end of the script. 8.5.1 Program specifications and drivers The most important diver used by the program to choose the distribution point is the “Coeff_maxperdita” that consider the number of people that need the specific items in the distribution points before the distribution ( “Qdd” ) and the critical level of the population associated to the penalty cost ( “P” ). The critical level of population is a factor associated to the level of damage in the area and to the level of population suffering in the area. The driver “Coeff_maxperdita” continues to change after each deliver. Indeed after each delivery the number of the people that need the specific item in the distribution points decreases because some of people are satisfied by the deliver. A second but very important diver used is the time for each route ( “T” ) and the total time in a day ( “Time_total” ). Indeed the program in a first step considers the maximization of the distribution and in a second step it considers to use the shortest route possible as to satisfy the maximization of the distribution chosen, so it takes all the routes that can deliver in the distribution points we need and it chooses the most efficient one. Making this it is possible to have the maximization of the distribution using the time as less as possible. The others constrains considered are the times, the capacities and the vehicles features, these are important because they considers the limits of the infrastructures that we have and some humanitarian safety limits. For example it is not possible to deliver during the night hours. 88 8.5.2 Program Input The data that has to be upload to make work the program are the times and the costs for each type of vehicle it has been considered to make all the parts of the routes to deliver the items. 8.5.3 Program Output The output of the program is a matrix that says in which demand points the vehicle has to go, which route it has to take and how much (in volume) item it will deliver for each demand point. It is possible to see the table 8.4 to understand the output of the program. Table 8.4 : Program output matrix. Schedule of Delivered Delivered Delivered Delivered Route deliveries in B in C in D in E chosen 8.6 Data Input It has been considered the Haitian case with some data. In this simulation the main features considered are: • All possible routes that can be touched by the vehicles for the five demand points taken in the previous chapters (table 8.5); 89 Table 8.5 : The numbers and the names of the main routes used during the distribution in Haiti. Number of the route 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 • Route name ada aca adca aea aeda aeca aecda aba acba adcba abda aeba aecba adeba adecba A 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 C 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 D 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 E 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 Penalty cost associated to the unsatisfied demand. Thus it is important to study the level of damage in the area to understand which is the importance of the delivery. It has been studied the situation after the earthquake in Haiti and it has been taken the level of damage for each area we have considered. The real level of the damage is unknown and so the penalty costs have been estimated (table 8.6) by the data have been taken by the European Union website (http://ec.europa.eu/); Table 8.6 : Estimated penalty cost for unsatisfied demand in Haitian case. Penalty cost 90 Unsatisfied Unsatisfied Unsatisfied Unsatisfied demand in demand in demand in demand in B C D E 1.3 2.1 1.5 1 • Distribution of the population in Port au Prince with the number of the people need humanitarian aids in each demand point has been considered and esitmated by the European Union website (http://ec.europa.eu/). In this case the beneficiaries that have been estimated can be seen in the table 8.7; Table 8.7 : beneficiaries and volumes of items estimated in each demand points in function of damage and distribution of the population. Demand point Number of Volume of E1 Volume of E2 beneficiaries item to deliver item to deliver ( • S ) ( S ) Carrefour (B) 225.000 450.000 900.000 Torgeau (C) 350.000 700.000 1.400.000 Pétionville (D) 275.000 550.000 1.100.000 Delmas (E) 150.000 300.000 600.000 Total 1.000.000 2.000.000 4.000.000 Different types of vehicle with all their own features (for example speed and capacity). It is possible to choose a vehicle and study its features in the distribution. In the next paragraph just one type of vehicle will be considered to make an easier simulation but it is possible to consider all kinds of vehicle and choose at first the cheapest one, as cost and as spent time. Here the vehicle we have chosen is a truck, that is possible to use in a city, with 50,752 S (cubic meters) as capacity [8*2,44*2.6]. The time for the deliveries is 16 hours for each day, as a double work turn. The vehicle features are taken by Man Trucks and Bus website (www.mantruckandbus.it) but the trucks we use are taken arbitrarily; • There are two kinds of item. The main difference between the items in the distribution is the volume. The E1 item per person has 2 cubic decimeters per person per day while the E2 item has 4 cubic decimeters per person. All these 91 data about the items are estimated by the real person needs. Indeed the RDA (Recommended Daily Allowance) has been studied and from this the estimation of the volume of the food the people need. The estimation of the E2 items has been made studying the amount of the no-food needs per person and so studying the volume of tents, blankets and mosquito nets people need. 8.7 Example of Output As output it is possible to have two different matrixes, one for each kind of product, for each vehicle we use. All the trucks are always full load and they can deliver or in just one demand point or in more than one. In this simulation it is possible to note we have to use 10 trucks to satisfy the demand. 92 Table 8.8 : Deliveries plan for the vehicle K1-1 during the t0 day. Schedule of deliveries 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Schedule of deliveries 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Item E1 delivered by the Vehicle K1-1 in the t0 day Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in B C D E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Item E2 delivered by the Vehicle K1-1 in the t0 day Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in B C D E 0 50752 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 50752 0 0 Route chosen 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Route chosen 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 93 Table 8.9 : Deliveries plan for the vehicle K1-2 during the t0 day. Schedule of deliveries 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Schedule of deliveries 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 94 Item E1 delivered by the Vehicle K1-2 in the t0 day Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in B C D E 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 Item E2 delivered by the Vehicle K1-2 in the t0 day Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in B C D E 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 Route chosen 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 Route chosen 2 0 1 2 1 0 1 2 0 1 2 1 0 Table 8.10 : Deliveries plan for the vehicle K1-3 during the t0 day. Schedule of deliveries 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Schedule of deliveries 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Item E1 delivered by the Vehicle K1-3 in the t0 day Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in B C D E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Item E2 delivered by the Vehicle K1-3 in the t0 day Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in B C D E 0 0 50752 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 50752 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 50752 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 Route chosen 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 Route chosen 1 2 0 1 8 2 1 0 8 1 8 2 95 Table 8.11 : Deliveries plan for the vehicle K1-4 during the t0 day. Schedule of deliveries 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Schedule of deliveries 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 96 Item E1 delivered by the Vehicle K1-4 in the t0 day Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in B C D E 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 Item E2 delivered by the Vehicle K1-4 in the t0 day Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in B C D E 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 50752 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 Route chosen 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 0 Route chosen 1 0 0 8 1 2 8 0 0 8 1 0 2 Table 8.12 : Deliveries plan for the vehicle K1-5 during the t0 day. Schedule of deliveries 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Schedule of deliveries 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Item E1 delivered by the Vehicle K1-5 in the t0 day Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in B C D E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 50752 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 Item E2 delivered by the Vehicle K1-5 in the t0 day Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in B C D E 50752 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 50752 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Route chosen 0 0 2 0 1 8 0 0 0 1 8 2 Route chosen 8 1 0 8 0 0 1 2 8 0 0 0 97 Table 8.13 : Deliveries plan for the vehicle K1-6 during the t0 day. Schedule of deliveries 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Schedule of deliveries 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 98 Item E1 delivered by the Vehicle K1-6 in the t0 day Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in B C D E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 Item E2 delivered by the Vehicle K1-6 in the t0 day Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in B C D E 0 0 50752 0 50752 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 Route chosen 0 0 0 8 1 0 0 2 8 0 0 1 Route chosen 1 8 2 0 0 1 8 0 0 8 1 0 Table 8.14 : Deliveries plan for the vehicle K1-7 during the t0 day. Schedule of deliveries 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Schedule of deliveries 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Item E1 delivered by the Vehicle K1-7 in the t0 day Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in B C D E 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Item E2 delivered by the Vehicle K1-7 in the t0 day Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in B C D E 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 50752 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 Route chosen 0 8 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 8 0 Route chosen 2 0 8 1 4 0 0 4 8 2 0 4 99 Table 8.15 : Deliveries plan for the vehicle K1-8 during the t0 day. Schedule of deliveries 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Schedule of deliveries 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 100 Item E1 delivered by the Vehicle K1-8 in the t0 day Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in B C D E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Item E2 delivered by the Vehicle K1-8 in the t0 day Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in B C D E 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 50752 0 50752 0 0 50752 0 0 0 Route chosen 0 0 1 0 0 2 8 4 0 0 0 0 Route chosen 1 4 0 8 4 0 0 0 1 4 2 0 Table 8.16 : Deliveries plan for the vehicle K1-9 during the t0 day. Schedule of deliveries 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Schedule of deliveries 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Item E1 delivered by the Vehicle K1-9 in the t0 day Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in B C D E 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 40224 0 10528 Item E2 delivered by the Vehicle K1-9 in the t0 day Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in B C D E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 0 0 50752 50752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Route chosen 1 4 0 1 8 0 4 0 0 0 4 6 Route chosen 0 0 4 0 0 4 0 1 4 8 0 0 101 Table 8.17: Deliveries plan for the vehicle K1-10 during the t0 day. Schedule of deliveries 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Schedule of deliveries 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Item E1 delivered by the Vehicle K1-10 in the t0 day Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in B C D E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 43984 0 6768 0 0 0 0 50752 0 0 30637 20115 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15597 Item E2 delivered by the Vehicle K1-10 in the t0 day Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in Delivered in B C D E 0 0 0 50752 0 29096 0 21656 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16550 0 34202 0 0 0 0 50752 20666 0 0 20072 0 0 0 0 Route chosen 0 0 10 4 5 0 0 0 4 Route chosen 4 6 0 0 0 10 4 12 0 8.8 Discussion of results In the tables it is possible to see the distribution program for each vehicle in a day during the disaster phase we have studied. In this situation we need 10 vehicles to complete the distribution in this area to satisfy the demand of 1’000’000 people (6’000’000 S of materials). It is important to see that for the first vehicles the distribution routes are the direct ones while the next vehicles touch more nodes to complete all the needs of the beneficiaries. So the first trucks deliver just to one deliver point each time, at first each truck delivers all the 50,752 cubic meters to a demand point. This is important because the cheapest routes are the direct ones and the multi-nodes routes are used just when the most important objective is to complete the deliveries in places that don’t need a complete capacity delivery. 102 Another important note is that this is not a real distribution plan because it doesn’t consider some real data but it could be a good step to understand how to optimize the deliveries and which information are important to center this critical objective. 103 104 9 Conclusions “This thesis aims to present the most basic concepts of humanitarian logistics: the state of art upon humanitarian logistics and last mile distribution in a humanitarian aids operation, taking Haitian case as example. The logistics principles that will be described here have multi-sectoral applications, not only in emergency situations, but also in the day-to-day operations that must be a part of disaster prevention and preparedness”. (Peretti, 2011) The idea of the thesis has been to show the state of art upon humanitarian logistics and last mile distribution in a humanitarian relief operation, taking Haitian case as example. This has been done. All problems and features have been studied and many critic points have been found. All problems that have been found are about the critical environment in which humanitarian logistic usually works. Indeed all the uncertainties and the environment features, we can find in this field, make it a hard logistic operations camp. If we consider the Haitian case, the main problem that has been found is that in Haiti earthquake, and so usually in post-disaster periods, there was a high uncertainty of the data. For example for the first weeks after the seism it was difficult to have information about people, damages and infrastructures. This happened when the data changes quickly. Day by day, with always more information, the situation in the country becomes more clear. As we have seen in the chapter 5, figure 5.1, the phase where our formulation will be used in the humanitarian operations lifecycle is showed, and by this figure it is possible to see that in this phase there are not a lot of information and so it is impossible to make a real standardization. For this reason the possibility to find a complete optimization of the distribution is difficult. It could be possible to find a day by day heuristic optimization to maximize all the supplies minimizing the time for each route. Another important discussion point would be about in which situation this research could be used. It is important to note that all the features that have been studied are the typical humanitarian operations features. So it is possible to say that the idea of this script can be applied even in others post-disaster situations. 105 At the end the program showed is just an example studied to find the optimization in the distribution of the humanitarian deliveries. It is important to note this is not a realistic distribution plan because it doesn’t consider some real data but it could be a good step to understand how optimize the deliveries and which information are important to focus this critical objective 106 10 Future discussions In this script many critic features of humanitarian logistics have been studied, for example cluster approach and last mile distribution. To further the researches would be some deep studies about all these features. An example can be a research about all the information that we need to know the distribution of the population and of the damage. This is fundamental for all the next steps of the study. All of these research have to be planned and made in the preparedness phase. In this phase indeed these kinds of research can develop some tools that could be used subsequently, after the natural disaster. A second point that can be studied is the study of optimization of each phase. 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(2008), “Humanitarian logistics”, NOFOMA presentation. 112 Internet sites http://www.caritasitaliana.it https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/ http://www.detdellitecnotrans.it http://www.europa.eu/press_room/pdf/factsheet_haiti_en.pdf http://www.geohive.com http://www.maps.google.it/ http://www.humanitarianreform.org http://www.ifrc.org/ http://www.logcluster.org http://www.mantruckandbus.it http://www.munichre.com/ http://www.oneresponse.info http://www.sphereproject.org/ http://www.undp.org/publications/annualreport2009/report.shtml 113 114 Attachment 1 Program in Matlab %DATA C1=[c11;…;c1x;…;c1n]; C2=[c21;…;c2x;…;c2n]; %costs vehicle 1 and vehicle 2 % import T1=[t11;…;t1i;…;t1n]; T2=[t21;…;t2i;…;t2n]; % times vehicle 1 and vehicle 2 % import for each route for each route Q1=q1; Q2=q2; % capacity of vehicles 1 and 2 P = [0, p1b, p1c, p1d, p1e]; P2 = [0, p2b, p2c, p2d, p2e]; % cost penalty for unsatisfied demand for each items in each distribution point S=[0 0 0 0 0 ; 0 0 0 0 1 ; 0 0 0 1 0 ; … ; 1 1 1 1 1]; % S is 1 if the route touches the demand point otherwise it is 0 % import Qdd_iniz = [0, Qdd1b, Qdd1c, Qdd1d, Qdd = [0, Qdd1b, Qdd1c, Qdd1d, Qdd2_iniz = [0, Qdd2b, Qdd2c, Qdd2d, Qdd2 = [0, Qdd2b, Qdd2c, Qdd2d, %Qdd= quantity of matirial has to be Qdd1e]; Qdd1e]; Qdd2e]; Qdd2e]; delivered %PROGRAM n = length(T1); t = length(P); numero_giri = 0; Time_total = 0; giorno = 0; matrice_output = zeros(1,6); matrice_output2 = zeros(1,6); while Time_total <= 1 && (sum(Qdd) > 0 || sum(Qdd2) > 0) Coeff_maxperdita = P .* Qdd; c1 = max(Coeff_maxperdita); Coeff_maxperdita2 = P2 .* Qdd2; c2 = max(Coeff_maxperdita2); if c1 > c2 % DEMAND POINT/S CHOICE (Item E1 max priority) Coeff_maxperdita = P .* Qdd; [c,d] = max(Coeff_maxperdita); sceltadistribuzione_rotta = zeros(1,t); sceltadistribuzione_rotta(d) = 1; sceltadistribuzione_ok = sceltadistribuzione_rotta*Q1*P(d); 115 Coeff_maxperdita = Coeff_maxperdita - sceltadistribuzione_ok; if Qdd(d) >= Q1 qdr = sceltadistribuzione_rotta * Q1; Qdd = Qdd - qdr; else distribuito1 = Qdd(d); sceltadistribuzione_rotta = ones(1,t); sceltadistribuzione_rotta(d) = 0; Coeff_maxperdita = P .* Qdd .* sceltadistribuzione_rotta; [c,e] = max(Coeff_maxperdita); sceltadistribuzione_rotta = zeros(1,t); sceltadistribuzione_rotta(d) = 1; sceltadistribuzione_rotta(e) = 1; sceltadistribuzione_ok = sceltadistribuzione_rotta; sceltadistribuzione_ok(d) = distribuito1 * P(d); if Qdd(e) >= Q1 - distribuito1 sceltadistribuzione_ok(e) = Q1 - distribuito1; qdr = sceltadistribuzione_rotta; qdr(d) = distribuito1; qdr(e) = Q1 - distribuito1; Qdd = Qdd - qdr; else distribuito2 = Qdd(e); sceltadistribuzione_rotta = ones(1,t); sceltadistribuzione_rotta(d) = 0; sceltadistribuzione_rotta(e) = 0; Coeff_maxperdita = P .* Qdd .* sceltadistribuzione_rotta; [c,f] = max(Coeff_maxperdita); sceltadistribuzione_rotta = zeros(1,t); sceltadistribuzione_rotta(d) = 1; sceltadistribuzione_rotta(e) = 1; sceltadistribuzione_rotta(f) = 1; sceltadistribuzione_ok = sceltadistribuzione_rotta; sceltadistribuzione_ok(d) = distribuito1 * P(d); sceltadistribuzione_ok(e) = distribuito2 * P(e); if Qdd(f) >= Q1 - distribuito1 - distribuito2 sceltadistribuzione_ok(f) = Q1 - distribuito1 - distribuito2; qdr = sceltadistribuzione_rotta; qdr(d) = distribuito1; qdr(e) = distribuito2; qdr(f) = Q1 - distribuito1 - distribuito2; Qdd = Qdd - qdr; else distribuito3 = Qdd(f); sceltadistribuzione_rotta = ones(1,t); sceltadistribuzione_rotta(d) = 0; sceltadistribuzione_rotta(e) = 0; sceltadistribuzione_rotta(f) = 0; 116 Coeff_maxperdita = P .* Qdd .* sceltadistribuzione_rotta; [c,g] = max(Coeff_maxperdita); sceltadistribuzione_rotta = zeros(1,t); sceltadistribuzione_rotta(d) = 1; sceltadistribuzione_rotta(e) = 1; sceltadistribuzione_rotta(f) = 1; sceltadistribuzione_rotta(g) = 1; sceltadistribuzione_ok = sceltadistribuzione_rotta; sceltadistribuzione_ok(d) = distribuito1 * P(d); sceltadistribuzione_ok(e) = distribuito2 * P(e); sceltadistribuzione_ok(f) = distribuito3 * P(f); if Qdd(g) >= Q1 - distribuito3 - distribuito2 - distribuito1 sceltadistribuzione_ok(g) = Q1 - distribuito1 distribuito2 - distribuito3; qdr = sceltadistribuzione_rotta; qdr(d) = distribuito1; qdr(e) = distribuito2; qdr(f) = distribuito3; qdr(g) = Q1 - distribuito3 - distribuito2 - distribuito1; Qdd = Qdd - qdr; else distribuito4 = Qdd(g); sceltadistribuzione_ok(g) = Q1 - distribuito1 distribuito2 - distribuito3; qdr = sceltadistribuzione_rotta; qdr(d) = distribuito1; qdr(e) = distribuito2; qdr(f) = distribuito3; qdr(g) = distribuito4; Qdd = Qdd - qdr; end end end end else % DEMAND POINT/S CHOICE (Item E2 max priority) Coeff_maxperdita = P2 .* Qdd2; [c,d] = max(Coeff_maxperdita); sceltadistribuzione_rotta = zeros(1,t); sceltadistribuzione_rotta(d) = 1; sceltadistribuzione_ok = sceltadistribuzione_rotta*Q1*P2(d); Coeff_maxperdita = Coeff_maxperdita - sceltadistribuzione_ok; if Qdd2(d) >= Q1 qdr = sceltadistribuzione_rotta * Q1; Qdd2 = Qdd2 - qdr; else distribuito1 = Qdd2(d); sceltadistribuzione_rotta = ones(1,t); 117 sceltadistribuzione_rotta(d) = 0; Coeff_maxperdita = P2 .* Qdd2 .* sceltadistribuzione_rotta; [c,e] = max(Coeff_maxperdita); sceltadistribuzione_rotta = zeros(1,t); sceltadistribuzione_rotta(d) = 1; sceltadistribuzione_rotta(e) = 1; sceltadistribuzione_ok = sceltadistribuzione_rotta; sceltadistribuzione_ok(d) = distribuito1 * P2(d); if Qdd2(e) >= Q1 - distribuito1 sceltadistribuzione_ok(e) = Q1 - distribuito1; qdr = sceltadistribuzione_rotta; qdr(d) = distribuito1; qdr(e) = Q1 - distribuito1; Qdd2 = Qdd2 - qdr; else distribuito2 = Qdd2(e); sceltadistribuzione_rotta = ones(1,t); sceltadistribuzione_rotta(d) = 0; sceltadistribuzione_rotta(e) = 0; Coeff_maxperdita = P2 .* Qdd2 .* sceltadistribuzione_rotta; [c,f] = max(Coeff_maxperdita); sceltadistribuzione_rotta = zeros(1,t); sceltadistribuzione_rotta(d) = 1; sceltadistribuzione_rotta(e) = 1; sceltadistribuzione_rotta(f) = 1; sceltadistribuzione_ok = sceltadistribuzione_rotta; sceltadistribuzione_ok(d) = distribuito1 * P2(d); sceltadistribuzione_ok(e) = distribuito2 * P2(e); if Qdd2(f) >= Q1 - distribuito1 - distribuito2 sceltadistribuzione_ok(f) = Q1 - distribuito1 - distribuito2; qdr = sceltadistribuzione_rotta; qdr(d) = distribuito1; qdr(e) = distribuito2; qdr(f) = Q1 - distribuito1 - distribuito2; Qdd2 = Qdd2 - qdr; else distribuito3 = Qdd2(f); sceltadistribuzione_rotta = ones(1,t); sceltadistribuzione_rotta(d) = 0; sceltadistribuzione_rotta(e) = 0; sceltadistribuzione_rotta(f) = 0; Coeff_maxperdita = P2 .* Qdd2 .* sceltadistribuzione_rotta; [c,g] = max(Coeff_maxperdita); sceltadistribuzione_rotta = zeros(1,t); sceltadistribuzione_rotta(d) = 1; sceltadistribuzione_rotta(e) = 1; sceltadistribuzione_rotta(f) = 1; sceltadistribuzione_rotta(g) = 1; sceltadistribuzione_ok = sceltadistribuzione_rotta; sceltadistribuzione_ok(d) = distribuito1 * P2(d); sceltadistribuzione_ok(e) = distribuito2 * P2(e); 118 sceltadistribuzione_ok(f) = distribuito3 * P2(f); if Qdd2(g) >= Q1 - distribuito3 - distribuito2 - distribuito1 sceltadistribuzione_ok(g) = Q1 - distribuito1 distribuito2 - distribuito3; qdr = sceltadistribuzione_rotta; qdr(d) = distribuito1; qdr(e) = distribuito2; qdr(f) = distribuito3; qdr(g) = Q1 - distribuito3 - distribuito2 - distribuito1; Qdd2 = Qdd2 - qdr; else distribuito4 = Qdd2(g); sceltadistribuzione_ok(g) = Q1 - distribuito1 distribuito2 - distribuito3; qdr = sceltadistribuzione_rotta; qdr(d) = distribuito1; % + Q1 - distribuito1 distribuito2 - distribuito3 - distribuito4; qdr(e) = distribuito2; qdr(f) = distribuito3; qdr(g) = distribuito4; Qdd2 = Qdd2 - qdr; end end end end end % ROUTE CHOICE (most convenient, less time) for i=1:n if sum (sceltadistribuzione_rotta) == 1 h = find(sceltadistribuzione_rotta == 1); if S(i,h) == 1 funzione(i) = C1(i) + sum(Coeff_maxperdita); else funzione(i) = Inf; end elseif sum (sceltadistribuzione_rotta) == 2 h = find(sceltadistribuzione_rotta == 1); x = h(1); y = h(2); if S(i,x) == 1 && S(i,y) == 1 funzione(i) = C1(i) + sum(Coeff_maxperdita); else 119 funzione(i) = Inf; end elseif sum (sceltadistribuzione_rotta) == 3 h x y z = = = = find(sceltadistribuzione_rotta == 1); h(1); h(2); h(3); if S(i,x) == 1 && S(i,y) == 1 && S(i,z) == 1 funzione(i) = C1(i) + sum(Coeff_maxperdita); else funzione(i) = Inf; end else h x y z w = = = = = find(sceltadistribuzione_rotta == 1); h(1); h(2); h(3); h(4); if S(i,x) == 1 && S(i,y) == 1 && S(i,z) == 1 && S(i,w) == 1 funzione(i) = C1(i) + sum(Coeff_maxperdita); else funzione(i) = Inf; end end [a,b] = min(funzione); % a is the minimum value, b is the position in the array end % CHOICE OF THE LAST DAY TOUR Time_total = Time_total + T1(b); if Time_total - T1(b)/2 <= 1 numero_giri = numero_giri + 1; if c1 > c2 matrice_output(numero_giri,:) = [qdr, b]; else matrice_output2(numero_giri,:) = [qdr, b]; end else break end end 120 A = sum (matrice_output); B = sum (matrice_output2); A(6) = NaN; B(6) = NaN; non_distribuito1 = [Qdd_iniz,0] - A; non_distribuito2 = [Qdd2_iniz,0] - B; 121