docThe Outlook for Energy - Belgian Financial Forum
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The Outlook for Energy - Belgian Financial Forum
The Outlook for Energy a view to 2030 Joost Van Roost President ExxonMobil Benelux Financieel Forum Vlaams-Brabant – Leuven, 8 juni 2011 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. Snapshot: our functional organization • Presence in nearly every country • 83,600 employees • Upstream Exploration, Development, Production, Gas Marketing, Upstream Research • Downstream Refining & Supply, Lubes & Specialties, Fuels Marketing, Research & Engineering • Chemical Manufacturing, marketing and research 2 Upstream Exploration Development Production Identify, pursue, capture, and evaluate all high-quality exploration opportunities Develop safe, cost-effective facilities for oil & gas fields identified by Exploration Oil and gas fields put into production 3 Downstream Refining & supply Fuels marketing Efficient network to provide clean fuels, lubricants, and other high-value products High-quality products sold to customers around the world 4 Lubricants & specialties Mobil 1: world’s premier lubricant Chemical Chemical Produce, supply/transport, research, develop and market chemical products 5 125-year history 6 ExxonMobil in the Benelux • Since 1891 in Rotterdam and Antwerp • 4350 people • 1450 in NL, 2900 in Bel/Lux Offices Eur. Technology Center Refinery • Chemical plant Shareholder • NAM (50%) • GasTerra (25%) Lubes oil plant Fuel depot • Joint Venture 9 Petrochemical plants • 5 in NL • 4 in Be • 2 Refineries • Rotterdam • Antwerp • 630 Esso service stations • 340 in NL • 290 in Bel/Lux • 7 European Technology Center in Brussels Downstream in Belgium Brussels Campus - regional head office Benelux head office in Breda Refining & Supply Antwerp refinery 3 Product Terminals 260 Retail Service Stations: • 35 operated by ROC (incl. 70 Esso Express sites) • Large number of dealer/ reseller owned sites Lubricants & Petroleum Specialties Asphalt production (Antwerp) 8 Chemical in Belgium Brussels Campus - regional head office Benelux Head office Breda Basic Chemicals Ethylene handling at Antwerp refinery Steamcracker Fina Antwerp Olefins (JV) Polymers European Technology Center in Machelen Antwerp Polymers Plant Meerhout Polymers Plant Intermediates Performance Fluids in Antwerp Films Oriented Polypropylene in Virton 9 Economic and Energy Evolution As societies and technologies develop over time… … energy needs evolve as well ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 10 Energy Outlook Basis 100 countries 15 demand sectors 20 fuel types technology & policy ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 11 Ongoing Development Challenges World Population Billion Living Standards 8 Literacy Health 6 Environment 4 Life Expectancy Poverty 2 0 1800 1900 2000 ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 12 Source: United Nations; ExxonMobil 2030 Economics & Energy Linked GDP Energy per GDP Energy Demand Trillions in 2005$ 100 MBTU / 2005$k GDP 15 Quadrillion BTUs 1200 Average Growth / Yr. Average Growth Rate of Change / Yr. 802005 – 2030 Average Growth / Yr. 1000 2005 – 2030 2.8% 1.2% -0.9% 10 1980 – 2005 60 800 600 -1.5% 2005 – 2030 40 5 400 20 0 1980 200 2005 2030 0 1980 2005 ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 13 2030 0 1980 2005 2030 Energy and Prosperity Linked Energy per Capita GDP per Capita MBTU 2005 $k 50 2030 300 40 250 200 2005 30 2030 2005 150 20 100 10 50 0 0 OECD China India OECD ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 14 China India Expansion Economies Drive Demand OECD Non OECD Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs 450 450 Other 300 300 Africa Middle East Other Latin America 150 150 India Europe OECD China United States 0 1980 2005 0 1980 2030 ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 15 2005 2030 Global Demand By Sector By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs 700 700 Res/Comm 600 Renewables 600 Biomass 500 Nuclear 400 400 Coal 300 300 500 Industrial Power Generation Gas 200 200 100 100 Oil Transportation 0 1980 2005 0 1980 2030 ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 16 2005 2030 Europe Energy Demand & Supply Total By Fuel Total By Sector Power Generation by Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs 40 100 100 Other Renewables 80 Renewables Biomass 80 Res/Comm 30 Nuclear 60 Coal Wind & Solar Biomass Industrial 60 Nuclear 20 Gas 40 40 Power Generation Coal 10 20 Oil 20 Gas Transportation 0 1980 2005 2030 0 1980 2005 ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 17 Oil 0 2030 1980 2005 2030 Transportation Personal Transportation Demand Grows Demand Steadily Flattens Demand Personal Vehicle Demand Changes MBDOE MBDOE 35 70 Rail 60 30 Marine Aviation 40 30 25 Commercial 50 Distance per Vehicle Fleet Mandated Other 20 Fuel Economy 15 Heavy Duty 10 20 Light Duty 0 1980 Personal 10 5 0 2005 2005 2030 ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 18 2030 Heavy Duty Dominates Growth Demand Heavy Duty Demand Changes MBDOE MBDOE 70 Vehicle Efficiency 30 60 Rail Operating Inefficiencies 25 Marine Freight Growth 50 20 Aviation 40 15 30 Heavy Duty Truck Size 10 20 5 10 Light Duty 0 1980 0 2005 2030 2005 ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 19 2030 Personal Transportation Fleet Diversifies Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles 2010 2030 350 300 Advanced* CNG Diesel 250 Gasoline 200 150 100 50 0 North America Europe OECD Other OECD China ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 20 *Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles India Middle East Latin America Other Non OECD Liquids Support Growing Demand Liquids Supply Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 MBDOE 120 0.8% 2030 Liquids Demand OPEC 90 ~36 ~35 Biofuels ~29 60 Non-OPEC 2005 ~27 OPEC Crude NGL, OPEC Condensate, Other Canadian Oil Sands 30 Non-OPEC Crude & Condensate 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 21 2020 2030 Supply Electricity Demand Continues to Surge By Sector By Region k TWh k TWh 30 30 Transportation Commercial 20 20 Non OECD Residential Other Industry 10 10 OECD Heavy Industry 0 1980 2005 0 1980 2030 ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 22 2005 2030 Power Generation Leads Growth Quadrillion BTUs 300 300 1.7% 2030 250 200 0.9% 2005 167 150 1.3% 100 0.3% 50 0 Transportation Industrial Res/Comm PowerGen ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 23 Growth Savings Power Generation Mix Evolves Global Capacity Utilized By Generation GW k TWh 800 35 Wind 700 30 Nuclear 600 25 Gas 500 20 400 Coal 15 300 Solar 10 200 Nuclear Wind & Solar 5 100 Other Renewables 0 1980 0 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 24 Oil 2005 2030 Regional Needs Drive Fuels for Power North America Europe Asia Pacific Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs 140 140 140 120 120 120 Renewables 100 100 100 Nuclear 80 80 80 60 60 60 Coal 40 40 40 20 20 20 Gas 0 1980 2005 2030 0 1980 2005 ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 25 2030 Oil 0 1980 2005 2030 Energy Mix Continues to Evolve Quadrillion BTUs 250 World Average Growth/Yr. ’05 to ’30 – 1.2% 0.7% 200 2.0% 2030 150 0.7% 2005 100 0.4% 50 2.3% 2.1% 9.9% Hydro/Geo Wind, Solar, Biofuels 0 Oil Gas Coal Biomass/Other ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 26 Nuclear Gas Supply Grows and Diversifies United States Europe Asia Pacific BCFD BCFD BCFD 120 120 125 100 100 80 80 100 LNG 60 75 60 Pipeline 50 Unconventional 40 40 Local Production 25 20 20 Conventional 0 2000 2015 2030 0 2000 2015 ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 27 2030 0 2000 2015 2030 Natural Gas Grows in All Areas Demand By Region By Sector Quadrillion BTUs BCFD BCFD 500 500 700 600 400 500 Other Asia Pacific Coal Middle East 400 Power Generation 400 300 300 North America 300 Gas 200 200 Latin America Industrial 200 Oil Europe Africa 100 100 100 Res/Comm Russia/Caspian 0 1980 2005 2030 0 1980 2005 ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 28 2030 0 1980 2005 2030 Global Coal Growth Slows Demand by Sector Demand by Region Billion Tons Billion Tons 2010 6 6 Res/Comm 5 Other Non OECD 5 Industrial India 4 4 3 3 China 2 2 Power Generation Other OECD 1 0 1980 1 Europe North America Transportation 2005 0 1980 2030 ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 29 2005 2030 CO2 Emissions Moderate By Region Emissions per Capita Billion Tons Tons per Person 40 20 2005 2010 30 15 2030 Other Non OECD India 20 10 China 5 10 OECD 0 1980 0 2005 United States 2030 ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 30 Europe OECD China India Development Challenges and Solutions Increase World development continues, while lives improve and economies grow Efficiency 8 billion people 100% increase in global GDP 35% increase in energy demand 300 quadrillion BTUs saved via efficiency Technology All reliable, affordable energy supplies needed Mitigate Emissions Expand Supplies ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 31 Expanding supplies • Directional drilling Record-setting horizontal wells stretching 7+ miles enable us to produce more oil with less environmental impact • Liquefied natural gas Large-scale Q-Max tankers allow us to safely and efficiently deliver natural gas to markets worldwide • Unconventional gas Multi-Zone Stimulation TechnologyTM allows us to produce “tight gas”. ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 32 ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 33 Global Climate & Energy Project ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 34 Algae-based biofuels Sunlight Carbon Dioxide Water Algae ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 35 More Algae Containing Hydrocarbons Oxygen Algae-based biofuels: Productivity • Map shows land area required for bio-oil production equivalent to less than 6% of total Belgium road transportation demand (light and heavy duty) – Based on current bio-oil productivity (liters/hectare-yr) rates Brussels, Belgium Legend Soybean (12,409 sq km) Corn (2,481 sq km) Sugar Cane (1,378 sq km) Palm (956 sq km) Algae (285 sq km) 10 km 36 Status today: Greenhouse Facility • Commissioned 8,500 ft2 greenhouse • Facilitates next level of R&D testing • Contains an array of open and closed photobioreactors • Supports algae harvesting and bio-oil recovery research efforts ExxonMobil – SGI greenhouse • Next step: construction of a larger outdoor research and testing facility 100 liter bag reactors 37 ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 38
