Overall trend - Hamburg Welcome Center

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Hamburg Welcome Days
Internationality of Metropolitan Life
and Economics
Internationality of Economies:
Future Challenges and Chances for Hamburg
Silvia Stiller
21st October, 2011
Agenda
§  Overall Trends
§  Chances and Challenges
Source: www.bigcitypictures.de
Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI)
Seite 2
Overall trends
Relevant for Hamburg’s future chances and challenges
§  Internationalisation
§  Urbanisation
§  Knowledge-based structural change
§  Demographic change
Seite 3
Overall trend:
internationalisation of economic activities
increasing worldwide interdependencies on markets for goods,
services and labour
Seite 4
Overall trend:
internationalisation of population
increasing worldwide interdependencies on markets for goods,
services and labour
Seite 5
Overall trend:
Urbanisation
Seite 6
Overall trend:
Structural Change
Employment growth in West Germany (1993=100)
160
Low-skilled
Medium-skilled
High-skilled
140
Index, 1993=100
Total
120
100
80
60
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Source: Federal Employment Agency of Germany, own calculation.
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Knowledge-based structural change
Share of employees in Research and Development, 2008
§  Localisation in and around large
cities
§  Regional proximity: intense
exchange of knowledge and
experiences between people.
§  Stimulating innovation.
Sources: Federal employment agency (2009); HWWI.
Seite 8
Knowledge-based structural change
Share of highly qualified employees, 2009
§  Knowledge-intense branches
concentrate in urban areas.
§  Big cities drive knowledge based
structural change.
Sources: Federal employment agency (2011); HWWI.
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI)
Seite 9
Overall trend:
Demographic change
§  Population Decline
§  Ageing
§  Migration
§  Diversity
Seite 10
Chances and Challenges for Hamburg
§  Knowledge-based growth will shape structural change in
Hamburg.
§  Skill-intensive service industries – like architecture and
engineering firms, advertising, media and cultural industry –
and research-intensive industries are expanding.
§  “Dirty” industries vanish from the cityscape.
§  These trends contribute to knowledge-based employment
§  Simultaneously: increasing migration and internationalisation
of the population/labour force.
Seite 11
Internationalisation of the labour force
Foreign Immigration t o H amburg
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
Male
2002
Fem ale
5 0 00
1 0 0 00
1 5 0 00
2 0 0 00
2 5 0 00
3 0 0 00
3 5 0 00
Sources: G erm an F ederal S tatistical Office and the S tatistical Offices o f the Länder (2011); H WWI.
Seite
Page 12
Internationalisation of the labour force
The Top 10 Nationalities in H am burg on 31.12.2010
2,5%
2,4% 2,2%
2,6%
3,2%
43,4%
3,7%
Turkey
Poland
Afghanistan
4,7%
Form er S erbia and M ontenegro
Portugal
4,9%
Russian F ederation
Greece
Italy
Iran
8,7%
Ghana
Other n ationality
21,8%
Sources: S tatistical B ureau for H am burg and S chlesw ig -‐ H olstein (2011); H WWI. Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI)
Page 13
Chances and Challenges
§  Forecasts:
Hamburg will grow economically and attract population.
§  Hamburg continues to grow, if advantages of regional
closeness compensate potential (increasing) disadvantages of
agglomeration.
§  Reducing the danger of increasing disadvantages of
agglomeration also means tackling challenges of
internationalisation:
§  regarding the whole society
§  regarding the firm level
§  specific challenges for Hamburg as a harbour city
Seite 14
Share of highly qualified employees
Share of h ighly q uallified employees in G ermany's b iggest cities
§  Share of highly qualified
Berlin
employees in big cities exceeds
H amburg
German average.
Munich
Cologne
§  In Hamburg 13.4% of the
Frankfurt Main
Stuttgart
employees are highly qualified.
Düsseldorf
Dortmund
§  In 2009, the German average is
2009
Essen
10.4 %.
2000
Bremen
§  Stuttgart : 21.9 %.
Leipzig
Dresden
§  Hamburg: How to catch up?
Germany
0
5
10
15
20
25 %
Sources: Official S tatistics F ederal R epublic of G ermany (2011), H WWI.
Seite 15
Changes and Challenges
Knowledge economy – Hamburg‘s position
Share of employment i n k nowledge b ased branches of i ndustry 2008
§  37.3 % of the
Hamburg’s employment
Stuttgart
works in these branches.
Munich
Frankfurt Main
§  Leading German city:
Mannheim
Stuttgart (50.8 %).
Augsburg
Düsseldorf
Kologne
Service activites
Braunschweig
Nürnberg
Industry, including energy
Wiesbaden
Münster
H amburg
0
10
20
30
40
50
60 %
Sources: Federal e mploym ent a gency (2010); H WWI.
Seite 16
Creating new approaches for urban development?
§  Urban development meets complex and dynamic processes.
§  Innovative concept: Focus on people - but how?
§  Companies do not chose their location mainly according to
traditional location factors (low tax rates, real estate prices)
anymore, but more and more on the criterion of high qualified
people and so-called “soft-factors”.
§  Key-resource: “(international) knowledge“.
§  Is Hamburg well prepared for future trends of
internationalisation of population and the economy?
Topics of the conference!
Seite 17
Contact
Dr. Silvia Stiller
Hamburgisches
WeltWirtschaftsinstitut
(HWWI) gGmbH
Hamburg Institute of International
Economics
stiller@hwwi.org
Phone: 040 340576-660
www.hwwi.org
Page 18

Overall trend - Hamburg Welcome Center

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