Shell PaSSenger Car SCenarioS for germany to 2040

Shell Passenger Car SCenarios
for Germany to 2040
English Summary
Demographic Change
3
Shell Passenger Car Scenarios for Germany to 2040
population of roughly 9.6 billion people. With
rising levels of car ownership and an increasingly
urbanised environment, the question arises as to
Prognos AG, Basel
Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (project lead) ■ Natalia Anders ■ Alex Auf der Maur ■ Dr. Oliver Ehrentraut ■ Lisa Krämer ■ Samuel Straßburg
The present Shell Passenger Car Scenarios for Germany to 2040 are the 26th edition of the Shell Passenger Car Study. The aim
of the Shell Passenger Car Scenarios is to explore the future of auto-mobility in Germany with the aid of expert assessments,
scenario technique and quantitative forecasts. The key results are the future level of passenger car ownership, passenger car
mileages, the total number or fleet of passenger cars as well as the fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of passenger cars. The new edition of the Passenger Car Study for 2014 extends through to 2040 for the first time and was drawn up in
collaboration with Prognos AG, Basel.
per 1,000 inhabitants; in Germany the figure is
around 530 passenger cars per 1,000 inhabitants.
The global level of passenger car ownership is currently 123 passenger cars per 1,000 inhabitants.
Global auto-mobilisation is
accelerating
526
In emerging markets and developing countries, the
level of car ownership is often still below 100 passenger cars per 1,000 inhabitants. With increasing
incomes, the pace of growth of passenger car ownership has picked up in many emerging markets
(Chamon et al. 2008; RAND/ifmo 2014). By the
middle of the century, the global passenger car
fleet could grow to around 2 billion with a global
Today we are seeing more and more regions of
the world in which people’s lives and mobility are
increasingly shaped by the automobile. There are
already more than 900 million passenger cars
around the world. In the world’s highly developed
economies, the level of passenger car ownership
is usually between 400 and 600 passenger cars
Demographic change in
Germany
In Germany, the economy and people’s incomes
continue to grow and this means that levels of private consumption and expenditure on transport
Bevölkerungsprognose
2014
- 2040
may also continue to rise. However,
in contrast
to
Car Ownership in selected countries
90
Population in mln
90
80
80
77
70
65+
60
50
40–64
40
30
18–39
20
0–17
2014
World Bank 2014
2000
600
70
81
0
700
2011
500
2020
2025
factors influencing car
ownership and Car use
400
300
200
100
0
IT
AU
DE
CH
FR
NL
PL
JAP
GB
USA
RUS
BRA
CHI
IND
World
the global population, the German population is
falling – from 81 million people today to around
77 million people by 2040, which means 4 million
inhabitants less. The proportion of younger and
middle age groups is falling, while the number of
over-65s will increase markedly from 21 to 31 %.
The number of private households will increase
from 40 to 41.3 million, with the average size of
households falling from roughly 2 to 1.8 people.
Population Forecast germany
10
Cars per 1,000 inhabitants
how auto-mobility can take place in the future,
and in particular how it can be as sustainable as
possible.
Own calculations; StBA 2009, 2013
Shell Deutschland, Hamburg
Dr. Jörg Adolf (project lead) ■ Dr. Christoph Balzer ■ Arndt Joedicke ■ Uwe Schabla ■ Dr. Karsten Wilbrand
In order to forecast levels of passenger car ownership and passenger car mileages, factors that
may influence passenger car ownership and use
were examined using the latest mobility investigations and consumer surveys (DIW/TNS 2013).
2030
2035
2040
Socio-economic factors influencing auto-mobility can
be divided up into drivers and constraints.
The factors that drive the availability and use of
passenger cars include employment and a high
income, which is generally also associated with a
higher level of education. Greater auto-mobility enables urban community structures to expand into the
surrounding area (suburbanisation). The strongest drivers of auto-mobility include car ownership
by women; women have been catching up men for
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
4
Shell Passenger Car Scenarios for Germany to 2040
Car Ownership and Mileages
Drivers → More Auto-Mobility
Constraints → Less Auto-Mobility
Higher labour force participation
Longer periods of training
Higher income
More single people
Car ownership by women
Mobility behaviour of younger people
Expenditure on transport by young senior citizens
Expenditure on transport by younger people (?)
Suburbanisation
Urbanisation
Car ownership among older people
Fewer children
many years when it comes to levels of car ownership (catch-up effect). And older people also use
a passenger car more frequently nowadays than
they did 10 years ago, which is also evident from
the much higher levels of expenditure on mobility
by young senior citizens.
The factors that inhibit the availability and use of
passenger cars include the mobility behaviour of
younger people. Younger people have a different
attitude to owning a car and are increasingly keen
on information and communication technology. As
a consequence, younger people have access to
a car less often than they did 10 years ago; but
the impact of the way that younger people spend
their money cannot (yet) be reliably assessed on
the basis of the data that has been collected thus
far. Longer periods of academic education and/
or vocational training mean that the achievement
of passenger car mobility is being pushed back
to older age groups. Alongside the trend towards
suburbanisation, the level of urbanisation in Germany continues to increase to the detriment of rural
areas. Changes to household structures are also
curbing levels of passenger car ownership and
use; more and more single-person and two-person
households and fewer and fewer children in the
households are resulting in less auto-mobility.
Passenger cars and alternative means of transport
Car ownership
for this fall is the partial decline in the level of car
ownership among men. The level of car ownership among men will reach its peak in 2016; it
will decline from the figure today (2014) of 645
cars to 609 cars per 1,000 men by 2040. In addition, the level of car ownership among the male
age groups below 34 years of age and that of the
over-75s is falling slightly, while younger old people up to 75 years of age are still increasing their
level of car ownership. Finally, the number of people in the age groups with the highest car ownership levels (from roughly 35 to 60 years of age) is
shrinking.
The level of passenger car ownership in the German population (including legal entities) will rise
from around 544 today (2013) to almost 570 in
the second half of the 2020s – and then decrease
to 558 passenger cars per 1,000 inhabitants in
2040. The level of car ownership across all inhabitants (excluding legal entities) was 498 passenger
cars per 1,000 inhabitants in 2013. It will peak in
2028 with a figure of 522 cars per 1,000 inhabitants and then revert back to 510 passenger cars
per 1,000 inhabitants by 2040. One main reason
Women are making up an increasing proportion
of car owners. The level of car ownership among
women will increase from 358 cars per 1,000
women today to 414 in 2040. The ratio of female
car ownership. i.e. female vs. male car ownership,
will also increase significantly from today’s figure
of 56 % to 68 % in 2040. The increasing level of
car ownership among women will in fact cause
the level of ownership in the middle age groups
(45 –75 years of age) to rise as a whole, particularly among 60- to 70-year-olds.
Passenger car ownership
and mileages
A (single) Trend scenario up to 2040 has been
developed and quantified for the future development of passenger car ownership and mileages in
Germany. The key results for passenger car ownership, the passenger car fleet and mileages are as
follows:
Motorisation by age group (cars per 1,000 inhabitants)
Mobility of the future also means that people’s mobility behaviour changes and alternative means of transport are increasingly used; examples of
these include the bicycle, car-sharing or even long-distance bus travel. Such new forms of mobility could make a greater contribution to passenger
transport in the future. After all, today in Germany there are already more than 70 million bicycles, almost one million car-sharing users and over
200 long-distance bus routes. But how great is the potential of these new means of transport in reality?
The percentage of passenger transport mileage on land that is travelled by bicycle is roughly 3 %, the number of car-sharing vehicles is 14,000 and
travel by long-distance bus accounts for less than a tenth of one per cent of passenger transport mileage across all motorised modes of land transport. Even if in the future there are further shifts towards new means of transport – in some cases this may even mean more mileage being travelled
overall – they will not be able to replace the passenger car in the mobility mix.
The share of motorised individual transport in passenger transport mileage by all modes of land transport is more than 80 % today and it will continue to remain at today’s level because the various influences on choice of motorised modes of land transport (passenger cars, motorcycles, trains
and public road passenger transport) ultimately offset one another. Consequently, the passenger car must continue to be regarded as the main
means of passenger transport in all areas of transport and mobility policy.
2013
2020
2030
2040
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
18–34
368,5
282,9
364,2
297,5
352,6
307,8
344,9
313,7
35–64
939,9
575,0
935,4
620,1
901,8
655,6
895,7
680,3
65+
820,2
265,0
804,1
314,1
777,3
363,9
696,4
343,1
Total male / female
642,8
358,3
646,4
391,8
631,1
413,8
609,1
413,7
Total including legal entities
544,4
564,6
568,3
557,5
5
6
Shell Passenger Car Scenarios for Germany to 2040
Car Propulsion Systems and Fuels
Passenger car fleet
Passenger car mileages
The total passenger car fleet for all owner groups
will increase from 44.2 million today (2014) to a
maximum of 45.2 million in 2022 and then fall to
42.7 million passenger cars in 2040 – but there
will also be almost 4 million fewer inhabitants.
The intensity of passenger car use, as indicated
by the annual average mileage per car, has been
decreasing since the end of the 1990s. One major
reason for the decreasing intensity of car use in
Germany is the steadily increasing motorisation.
Around 8.5 % of today’s total passenger car fleet
or 3.5 million cars are registered to legal entities;
there will not be much change in the proportion
and number of such cars by 2040.
The average annual car mileage will continue to
fall from 14,000 km today to around 13,600 km
per vehicle and per year by 2040. The biggest
mileages are covered by the 30 to 39-year-olds
Peak car in Germany?
In relation to passenger car transport in industrialised countries where there is a high level of car ownership, peak car is now often spoken
about; this means that at some point levels of passenger car ownership or mileages reach a peak and then begin to decline. This phenomenon
Car
nach
unterschiedlichen
isPeak
being seen
in the
USA and
in Great Britain, but also inMessgrößen
Germany – generally(1995=100)
among younger people (ifmo 2013). Is peak car also around
the corner for Germany? And if so, when?
For all three passenger car indicators (motorisation, fleet and mileage), a peak will be reached in Germany in the 2020s. Comparing indices,
130
the size of the German passenger car fleet will reach its peak slightly later
than the frequency of use of passenger cars as expressed by the topassenger cars per 1,000 inhabitants
125
tal passenger car mileage by German passenger cars per year. The decline in the passenger car fleet is partly attributable to the decline in the
number of people. By contrast, the reduction in the level of passenger car ownership and also passenger car usage is reflective both of shifts in
120
car fleet
the age structure of the population and of a change inTotal
thepassenger
mobility behaviour
of groups within the population.
115
(18,900 passenger car km per year) and the
cars registered to legal entities (almost 25,000
passenger car km per annum). However, greater
use of cars and a rising proportion of older people
among the population will mean that older people
will account for a greater proportion of total passenger car miles covered.
This also reflects a fall in the per capita passenger
kilometres travelled (in Pkm) overall as a result
of demographic change. The total mileages for
all passenger cars will only continue to rise until
around 2020; they will increase from today’s figure
of 610 billion to 626 billion vehicle kilometres and
then fall back down to the level of 2005 by 2040.
The car mileage covered per person will rise from
11,330 km today to 11,650 km by 2025 and then
reduce by 2040 to 11,400 km per inhabitant.
The share of passenger cars in the means of transport mix remains more or less unchanged at more
than 80 %.
Passenger car propulsion
systems and
fuels
An even more important role than the passenger
car in the means of transport mix is played by gasoline-powered and diesel-powered vehicles in the
passenger car fleet: In 2014, 68.3 % or around
30.0 million of the 43.9 million passenger cars
registered in Germany were fitted with a gasoline
engine, 30.1 % or 13.2 million were fitted with a
diesel engine and almost 1.6 % or 680,000 cars
were fitted with alternative propulsion systems.
Among the alternative propulsion systems, LPG
cars lead the way with 500,867 of them ahead
of hybrid vehicles with 85,575 and passenger
cars that run on natural gas with 79,065 as well
PAssenger Car Fleet in Germany, 2014, in Millions
CNG 0.079 = 11.6%
110
Consequently,
a peak for passenger car ownership and use is looming in the 2020s. However, the peak is very flat; in fact, it is rather like a
plateau. All three passenger car indicators will continue to be at the level of the previous decade or even of today in 2040. There will therefore
105
not be a peak car in the sense of a sudden collapse in levels of passenger car ownership and use. As the mobility behaviour of people and
100
groups is relatively stable, passenger car mobility only changes very gradually with the pace of generational change and due to the effect of
95
age structure.
90
1995
2005
2015
Electric 0.01 = 1.8%
Hybrid 0.086 = 12.6%
Diesel 13.22 = 30.1%
Other 0.002 = 0.3%
2035
2025
PEAK CAR Indices (1995 = 100)
130
125
120
115
LPG 0.5 = 73.7%
Passenger cars per 1,000 inhabitants
Total passenger car fleet
Total passenger car mileage (km)
Alternative
0.68 =1.6%
TOTAL 43.85
110
Gasoline 29.96 = 68.3%
105
100
95
90
1995
Own calculations; KBA 2014a
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
7
Shell Passenger Car Scenarios for Germany to 2040
Combustion Engine vs. Electric Propulsion
as 12,156 electric cars and 2,081 other cars.
Changes to the mix of propulsion systems among
the passenger car fleet are due to the fact that
there is a persistent trend whereby almost 50 %
of new vehicles registered are powered by diesel
(dieselisation). With the alternative propulsion
systems, passenger cars that are electrically
powered, in particular hybrid vehicles, are displaying above-average growth among new vehicle
registrations.
On the other hand, among existing cars electrically
powered passenger cars only account for 0.2 % of
the fleet, whereas passenger cars with a combustion engine, which means a gasoline, diesel or gas
engine, account for 99.8 % of German passenger
cars. And of the approximately 100,000 cars with
an electric motor, most of them – namely hybrids
including plug-in hybrids – have a combustion
engine as well.
The supply of fuel follows the propulsion technologies used for the fleet of cars. The existing fleet
of passenger cars is supplied with power mainly
from gasoline and diesel fuels. In 2012, passenger
cars consumed 19.7 million tonnes of gasoline and
14.6 million tonnes of diesel (DIW 2013).
To date only biofuels have managed to gain
substantial market shares, mainly in the form of
admixtures to fossil fuels (Fritsche et al. 2012).
However, biofuels are subject to technical limits on
admixture and they have to meet strict sustainability requirements. Other alternative fuels such as
gas fuels (LPG, CNG), electric energy and also
hydrogen currently still play only a fairly minor
role in the mixture of fuels used in passenger cars.
Today the share of biofuels in the fuel mix is close
to 6 %, whereas gas fuels make up approx. 2 %.
The environmental benefits of alternative fuels
(lower emissions) are usually contrasted with
drawbacks in terms of economics, energy storage
and handling. Moreover, setting up and maintaining an alternative or additional infrastructure
for generation and distribution of alternative fuels
demands high levels of investment and corresponding passenger car fleets.
Combustion engine versus
electric propulsion
One key issue for the fleet of passenger cars in
the future is the relationship between cars with a
combustion engine and cars with electric propulsion systems. Combustion engines are continuing
to be developed and are becoming more efficient.
But compared to combustion engines, electric
propulsion systems (plug-in hybrids, battery-operated electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles) display
much higher levels of motor efficiency. In addition,
electric propulsion systems do not produce any
direct emissions. However, the efficiency and
life-cycle assessment differ for combustion engines
and electric motors over the entire use chain much
less than the level of motor efficiency.
The most significant trend evident with passenger
car propulsion technologies is the increasing
electrification of passenger cars with a combustion
engine; in the near and medium future passenger
cars will be powered by a combination of electric
propulsion and a combustion engine – the hybrid
car. Hybrids combine many advantages of both
propulsion technologies, including efficiency,
power and range.
Evolution instead of revolution
In principle electric mobility is a “disruptive technology” (Christensen 1997) which might one day completely replace an established technology. Nonetheless there is – both in individual passenger cars and in the overall car fleet – more evidence of evolution rather than
technological revolution among the passenger car propulsion systems. The product of this technology evolution is the hybrid car.
Pkw-Kraftstoffverbrauch
Scenarios for the German
passenger car
fleet
Passenger Car Fuel Consumption
mln t
40
35
30
Diesel
20
Own calculations; DIW 2013
8
20
15
Gasoline
10
5
0
1991
1995
2000
2005
2010
2012
Using scenario technique, automobile futures for
different propulsion/fuel configurations are examined: A Trend scenario which continues passenger
car trends of the recent past and is based on
increasing use of biofuels, and an Alternative
scenario which is very ambitious in terms of energy
policy and climate conservation and will involve
much greater and faster changes in the passenger
car sector. The Alternative scenario examines
in particular the potential impacts of increased
electrification of propulsion systems and fuels. In
addition to electric mobility, recent discussion has
increasingly touted natural gas as another alternative source of power and fuel for passenger cars
(Shell 2013). In order to shed light on the potential
of gas propulsion systems and gas fuels in car
transport, a Gas mini-scenario is also looked at as
an alternative version of the Trend scenario.
New registrations
The development of the future fleet of passenger cars will be determined by the level and structure of registrations of new passenger cars. The
Trend scenario envisages that new registrations
each year will fall slightly from today’s figure of
around 3.0 million to 2.9 million new registrations
per annum; the Alternative scenario envisages an
9
10 Shell Passenger Car Scenarios for Germany to 2040
increasing pace of automotive change and
that new registrations will rise to 3.3 million
passenger cars per annum. Even if the new
car registration figures are higher, the average age of the existing fleet will continue
to rise, specifically from today’s figure of
8.8 to 9.4 years in the Alternative scenario
and to as much as 10.9 years in the Trend
scenario.
Passenger Car new registrations
mln passenger cars
3.5
TREND
ALTERNATIVE
petajoule
1,600
Mio. Pkw
3.5
1,400
3,0
800
1.5
Passenger car fleet
40
ALTERNATIVE
Energy consumption
2,5
1,000
2.0
2,0
600
1.0
400
0.5
200
0
TREND
1.5 million fuel cell vehicles. The total number of all gasoline- and diesel-powered cars
will shrink to 30.7 million vehicles by 2040.
1,200
2.5
50
The mix of propulsion systems among the
existing fleet of passenger cars changes
only relatively slowly in the Trend scenario.
Of almost 43 million vehicles in 2040, over
36 million are fitted with conventional gasoline and diesel drive trains and their hybridised versions; 4.7 million of them are fitted with electric propulsion systems (plug-in,
electric battery and fuel cell). In the Alternative scenario, the fleet of electric propulsion systems will grow to a total of 10.1 million vehicles – including 5.5 million plug-in
hybrids, 3.1 million battery-powered and
Passenger Car Fuel Consumption
3.0
In terms of propulsion systems, gasoline and
diesel-powered cars and their hybridised
counterparts will account for three-quarters of new car registrations by 2040 in
the Trend scenario; by contrast electric propulsion systems will make up 20 %. In the
Alternative scenario, on the other hand, the
pace of automotive change and thus the
proportion of alternative propulsion systems will increase significantly. This is particularly true of electric propulsion systems,
which will increase their share of new car
registrations to more than 40 % by 2040,
while pure and hybridised gasoline and diesel-powered passenger cars will fall to 55 %.
Scenarios 11
Inländerverbrauch nach Antrieb und Szenario
Neuzulassungen nach Antrieb und Szenario
1,5
1,0
0
2020
2013
Gasoline
LPG
Gasoline-Hybrid
Plug-in-Hybrid Gasoline
2030
Diesel
2040
Diesel-Hybrid
Battery Electric Vehicle
2020
CNG
2030
Gasoline*
CNG-Hybrid
Fuel Cell
Diesel*
2030
CNG*
2040
LPG
Electricity
2020
2030
Hydrogen
0,0
Data 2013: KBA 2014b
Pkw-Bestand nach Antrieb und Szenario
2040
* including biofuels
Passenger Car Greenhouse gas Emissions
mln t CO2
140
Passenger Car Fleet
mln passenger cars
0,52020
2013
2040
Tank-to-Wheel
TREND
Well-to-Tank
120
ALTERNATIVE
Well-to-Wheel
80
60
20
40
10
20
0
2013
Gasoline
LPG
2020
2030
Gasoline-Hybrid
Diesel
Plug-in-Hybrid Gasoline
2040
Diesel-Hybrid
Battery Electric Vehicle
2020
CNG
2030
2040
CNG-Hybrid
Fuel Cell
Data 2013: KBA 2014a
By 2040 liquid gasoline and diesel fuels
(including biogenic substitutes) will still continue to dominate the passenger car sector:
in the Trend scenario approximately 90 %
of the energy consumed is liquid fuels and
in the Alternative scenario the figure is still
more than 80 %.
In the Trend scenario gasoline and diesel fuels can be admixed with 20 % biofuels; biofuel consumption rises from 2.1 to
3.3 billion LGE. In the Alternative scenario
electric energy develops by the end of the
2030s to become the most important alternative source of energy. In the Alternative
scenario the level of consumption of propulsion electricity rises to 71 PJ. 10 % of final
energy will thus cover 20 % of passenger
car mileage. Despite enhanced 10 % admixture, biofuel use will fall to 1.4 billion LGE.
100
30
In 2013 German passenger cars consumed
around 50 billion litres of gasoline equivalent (LGE) or 1,590 petajoules (PJ) of
energy. Gasoline fuels accounted for 55 %
of domestic consumption, with diesel fuels
making up 43 %. In the Trend scenario the
level of energy consumption will fall by
45 % to 27 billion LGE or 868 PJ of energy;
in the Alternative scenario it is more than
halved, down to just 24 billion LGE or
759 PJ of energy.
Greenhouse gas emissions
0
1990
(Kyoto)
2005
(EU)
2013
2020
Trend Alternative
2030
Trend Alternative
2040
Trend Alternative
The direct greenhouse gas emissions (tankto-wheel), which fell between 1990 and
12 Shell Passenger Car Scenarios for Germany to 2040
Gas scenario
In the Gas scenario the proportion of gas
propulsion systems among the some 3 million new car registrations each year will
grow continuously to 25 % by 2040 compared with 3 % in the Trend scenario; within
the newly registered gas propulsion systems the percentages will be 40 % for CNG
drives, also 40 % for CNG hybrid drives
and 20 % for LPG drives. In 2040, there
will be 6.3 million gas drives that will then
account for a total of 15 % of the passenger car fleet.
If the proportion of gas sales in domestic
consumption of passenger cars is currently
only around 2 %, in the Gas scenario it will
grow at the expense of gasoline and diesel fuels by 2040 to 20 % (120 PJ of CNG
including biogas, and 52 PJ of LPG). Thanks
to the lower specific CO2 emissions per
energy unit of gas, with 58 million tonnes
of direct or tank-to-wheel emissions an additional saving of 2.5 million tonnes can be
achieved compared with the Trend scenario
in 2040. Well-to-wheel emissions will fall to
63 million tonnes and will then be 3 million
tonnes below the level envisaged by the
Trend scenario.
Gas versus Trend 2040
NEW REGISTRATIONS
mln passenger cars
45
40
2.5
35
30
2.0
25
1.5
20
1.0
15
10
0.5
0
5
Trend
Gas scenario
Gasoline
LPG
Gasoline-Hybrid
Plug-in-Hybrid Gasoline
Trend
Diesel
Diesel-Hybrid
Gas scenario
CNG
Battery Electric Vehicle
policy requires the Member States
to hit a binding overall target for greenhouse
gas emissions by 2030 of a reduction of 40 %
compared
to 1990. To do this, the intention is that
Passenger
Transport
Transport 20
car 13%the non-emission
%
20%
trading sectors – including the
transport sector – should reduce their greenhouse
Passenger
Today passenger carscar
consume
around 15 % of
13%
gas emissions by around 30 % in the period from
final energy
and cause around 13 % of combusIndustry
Industry2005 to 2030 (EU-COM 2014). Discussions
15%
tion-related 15%
CO2 emissions in Germany. How susabout further renewable energy and efficiency
Haushalte
tainably will auto-mobilityKleinverbraucher
develop
in Germany in
targets and their binding nature are still ongoing.
18% energy and clirelation to national and European
Finally, the energy and climate package of 2008
mate targets?
also sets an interim target for a reduction in greenEnergy
house gases for the German non-emission trading
Energy targets 47%
Energy transition (Energiewende) targets which
Energysector of 14 % in the period from 2005 to 2020
47% (EP/Council 2009).
are relevant to the transport sector and thus to pasOwn
calculation;
UBA
2013
senger cars can be gleaned from the energy blueIn respect of direct greenhouse emissions, passenprint (Energiekonzept) published by the German
ger cars will achieve a reduction of roughly 14 %
in the period from 1990 to 2020 in both scenarios
Government in 2010 (BMWi 2014). There are two
and from 1990 to 2040 of a good 50 % in the
targets for energy consumption in the transport
Auto-mobility and
energy transition
FLEET
mln passenger cars
3.0
0
CNG-Hybrid
Greenhouse gas Emissions in Germany (2011)*
Fuel Cell
Transport 20 %
Energy
47 %
Gas versus Trend 2040
petajoule
900
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
CO 2 EMISSIONS
60
20
10
Climate targets
40
450
30
300
150
Gas scenario
Gasoline
Diesel
Electricity
Hydrogen
CNG
LPG
Trend
Gas scenario
TtW
WtT
sector: compared to 2005, final energy consumption should fall by 10 % by 2020 and by 40 % by
2050.
The national final energy target for the entire transport sector would be achieved early by passenger
car traffic according to the Trend scenario because
a fall in the final energy consumption of more than
10 % would be achieved by 2020 and a fall of
around 50 % would be achieved by 2040.
50
600
Trend
Industry
15 %
Passenger car
13 %
Households and other
small consumers 18 %
*direct greenhouse gas emissions only; own calculations; UBA 2013
mln t CO2
70
750
0
Haushalte
Kleinverbraucher
18% and energy
Own calculation; UBA 2013
2013 from 122 million tonnes to 116 million tonnes, will continue to fall to 60 million tonnes in the Trend scenario and to 48
million tonnes in the Alternative scenario. If
the upstream-chain or well-to-tank emissions
are also included, the well-to-wheel emissions evolve from a historic high of 145 million tonnes (1990) to 136 million tonnes
(2013) and by 2040 in the Trend scenario
they will fall to 66 million tonnes and in the
Alternative scenario to 59 million tonnes.
Auto-Mobility and Energy Transition 13
0
For greenhouse gas emissions there is no sectoral
target but just a national one: In total the (direct)
greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced in
the period from 1990 to 2020 by 40 % and by
2040 by 70 %. Furthermore, the European climate
Trend scenario and more than 60 % in the Alternative scenario. The well-to-wheel emissions, which
are relevant to the overall level of greenhouse
gases, will likewise fall by between 50 and 60 %
in the period from 1990 to 2040. Differences in
the respective energy mix mean that the upstream
chain emissions will fall by a greater extent in the
Trend scenario (by almost four-fifths) compared to
the Alternative scenario (by only around a half).
However, in the delimitation which is chosen for
the purpose of making a comparison with the passenger car tank-to-wheel emissions – in contrast to
the national trend tables (UBA 2013) – the direct
emissions listed also include the emissions from the
combustion of biofuels.
14 Shell Passenger Car Scenarios for Germany to 2040
Political Measures 15
If the direct emissions of the biofuels are then
removed from the Trend and Alternative scenario,
the direct greenhouse gas emissions for passenger
car transport will fall even more markedly by 2040,
specifically to around 48 million tonnes in the Trend
scenario and to approx. 44 million tonnes in the
Alternative scenario. Despite emission reductions
of almost two-thirds, the national greenhouse gas
emissions saving target will still not be achieved.
On the other hand, the EU climate targets for
non-emission trading sectors could be achieved. By
2020 the tank-to-wheel emissions (excluding biofuels) will fall compared to 2005 by around 14 %
and by 2030 they will fall by more than 40 %.
When it comes to achieving the energy and climate targets, it should be borne in mind that alternative propulsion technologies and fuels are easier
to use in the passenger car sector than in other
modes of transport; this means that overall targets
for the transport sector can only be achieved if
passenger cars deliver above-average savings in
terms of energy and greenhouse gas emissions.
Nonetheless, in the transport industry and therefore
for passenger cars too, the potential for substitution
is lower due to the energy storage requirement
in transport than it is in the transformation sector,
for instance, or in the other stationary final energy
sectors.
Energy and Climate Performance vs. Policy Targets
Final Energy (Transport)
Direct GHG Emissions (National)
100 % 2005
Direct GHG Emissions (EU non-ETS)
100 % 1990
clear advantages over combustion engines. However, new drive technologies can only have an
impact on the passenger car fleet slowly through
new car registrations. To achieve an even faster
energy transformation in the passenger car sector,
the passenger car fleet would have to be turned
over more quickly because even in the Alternative
scenario the average age of vehicle rises.
But alternative electric drives are still comparatively expensive. In addition, they require – with
the exception of hybrids – completely new supply
infrastructures. As the technical, economic and
also ecological conditions for delivering complete
electrification of the passenger car traffic are still
not in place, the fully hybridised passenger car is
currently a compromise solution for a large number
of applications.
100 % 2005
Fuels
70 % 2030
ca. 60 % 2030
60 % 2050
48–55 % 2040
36–39 % 2040
Status quo
30 % 2040
Targets
Performance
Political measures
The Trend scenario already results in substantial
energy savings and reductions in greenhouse
gases. Nevertheless, the long-term energy and
climate targets represent a real challenge for
the passenger car sector. By making use of gas
drives and gas fuels and more electric propulsion
systems, even higher savings than those outlined in
the Trend scenario could be realised. What could
policymakers do to accelerate the energy transition
in the transport sector to an even greater extent?
Efficiency
Further energy savings can be achieved by the propulsion systems being more efficient. Here hybrid,
battery-powered and fuel cell passenger cars have
Additional CO2 savings can also be achieved
through lower-emission fuels. This is where sustainable biofuels or even gas fuels come into consideration. Liquid biofuels have the advantage that they
can be used in the current vehicle fleet and in the
existing supply infrastructure – and it is the drive
technology and fuels used in the existing vehicle
fleet, less than new car registrations, which ultimately dictate the current sectoral CO2 emissions.
Gas fuels also offer emission benefits versus liquid
fossil fuels. In order to deliver them, gas-powered
passenger cars must account for a substantial
share of the existing fleet; but in some respects
they still require additional infrastructure. To allow
electric drives to finally also deliver greenhouse
gas savings, their energy increasingly needs to
come from renewable energy sources – which is
currently only partly the case.
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22284 Hamburg
www.shell.de
Hamburg 2014