SOW Chap 4 - Worldwatch Institute
Transcription
SOW Chap 4 - Worldwatch Institute
T H E WO R L DWAT C H I N S T I T U T E Special 20th Anniversar y Edition STATE OF TH E WOR LD 20o3 Chris Bright Christopher Flavin Gary Gardner Mia MacDonald Anne Platt McGinn Danielle Nierenberg Payal Sampat Janet Sawin Molly O’Meara Sheehan Linda Starke Howard Youth Chapter 5 Charting a New Energy Future Janet Sawin For eight years, people in the Thai province of Prachuap Khiri Kan have fought proposals to build two large coal-fired power plants in the region out of concern for the environmental and health impacts of the plants. When Thailand’s Prime Minister visited one possible site in January 2002, he was met by 20,000 protesters. With help from the international environmental organization Greenpeace, people of this province have begun installing what they really want—wind and solar power. Meanwhile, halfway around the world, the state legislature in California passed a groundbreaking law in September 2002 that sets a target of generating 20 percent of electricity from new renewable sources by 2017. From Southeast Asia to California, leaders in business, government, and civil society are calling for a transition to a renewable energy economy.1 Between the late 1990s and 2020, global energy consumption is projected to rise nearly 60 percent due to population growth, continued urbanization, and economic and industrial expansion. Consumption of electricity, the most versatile form of energy, will increase even more sharply by most estimates—nearly 70 percent. The largest share of this growth is expected to occur in the developing world, where some 2 billion people have no access to modern forms of energy such as electricity and piped gas. And most of the additional energy is projected to come from fossil fuels, according to national and international agency forecasts. But meeting these demands with conventional fuels and technologies will further threaten the natural environment, public health and welfare, and international stability.2 Renewable energy technologies have the potential to meet world energy demand many times over and are now ready for use on a large scale. Wind and solar power are the fastest-growing energy sources in the world. By some estimates, “new renewables” (which excludes large-scale hydropower and traditional biomass) already account for more than 100,000 megawatts (MW) of grid-connected electric capacity. Globally, new renewable energy supplies the equivalent of the 85 State of the World 2003 CHARTING A NEW ENERGY FUTURE residential electricity needs of more than 300 million people.3 In 1999, the International Energy Agency noted that “the world is in the early stages of an inevitable transition to a sustainable energy system that will be largely dependent on renewable resources.” This is a bold statement for an organization that represents North America, Europe, and Japan—areas that depend so heavily on fossil fuels. But it seems logical, given the many problems associated with the use of conventional energy and the tremendous surge in renewable energy investments over recent years. The world now uses 10 times as much wind energy as it did only a decade ago, and solar power consumption has risen sevenfold. Political support for renewables is on the rise as well. Several countries have recently passed strong new legislation to support renewable energy, opening markets in a rapidly growing list of countries.4 Yet change is never easy, and there are strong forces—including politically powerful industries—that wish to maintain the status quo. The forces for and against change were on full display at the World Summit on Sustainable Development, held in Johannesburg, South Africa, in summer 2002. The European Union and Brazil proposed the adoption of specific numerical targets for the use of new renewable energy worldwide. Strong opposition arose from the fossil fuel industry and from the governments of most oil-producing nations and major fossil fuel users such as China and the United States. The battle in Johannesburg ended in a watered-down, non-numerical goal to increase renewable energy use. But the fact that the issue even arose at a global summit was highly significant. While the world is sharply divided on what kind of energy future must lie ahead, many nations now view renewable energy as a credible alternative to fossil fuels.5 86 Resistance to change is inevitable, but the world cannot afford to be held back indefinitely by those who are wedded to energy systems of the past. Each year new power plants, refineries, pipelines, and other forms of conventional infrastructure—facilities that will be around for at least a half-century—are added to the global energy system to replace existing capital stock and to meet ever-rising demand, much of it in the developing world. An estimated $200–250 billion is invested in energy-related infrastructure every year, and another $1.5 trillion is spent on energy consumption, with nearly all of this investment going to conventional energy. As a result, societies are in the process of further locking themselves into indefinite dependence on unhealthy, unsustainable, insecure energy structures.6 We have a brief window of opportunity to start down the path to a more sustainable world—one in which rising demand for energy is met without sacrificing the needs of current and future generations and the natural environment. Nongovernmental organizations, working with local communities, can make a difference on a small scale, as in Thailand, but alone they will not bring about the transformation necessary for movement toward a renewably powered world. The rapid expansion of renewable technologies over the past decade has been fueled by a handful of countries that have adopted ambitious and deliberate government policies aimed to advance renewable energy. These successful policy innovations have been the most important drivers in the advancement and diffusion of renewable technologies such as wind and solar photovoltaics (PVs). By examining the policies that have worked toward this end over the past two decades, as well as those that have failed, we can get some idea of what is required to launch a global takeoff in renewables in the decade ahead. State of the World 2003 CHARTING A NEW ENERGY FUTURE The Case for Renewables New renewable resources provide only a small share of global energy production today. (See Figures 5–1 and 5–2.) Yet the advantages of shifting away from fossil fuels and nuclear energy and toward greater reliance on renewables are numerous and enormous. Several countries have begun this transition in response to rising demand for energy, increasing concerns about fuel supplies and global security, the growing threat of climate change and other environmental crises, and significant advances in renewable technologies and the benefits they offer.7 Global oil production is expected to peak early in this century. “In 20–25 years the reserves of liquid hydrocarbons are beginning to go down so we have this window of time to convert over to renewables,” according to Harry Shimp, president and chief executive officer of BP’s solar division. But of greater concern to many is not when or if economically recoverable fossil fuel reserves will be depleted, but the fact that the world cannot afford to use all the conventional energy resources that remain.8 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a body of approximately 2,000 scientists and economists who advise the United Nations on climate change, has concluded that global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions must be reduced at least 70 percent over the next 100 years to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 450 parts per million (ppm), which would be 60 percent higher than preindustrial levels. The sooner societies begin to make these reductions, the lower the impacts and the associated costs—of both climate change and emissions reductions—will be. (See Box 5–1.) Because more than 80 percent of human-made CO2 emissions are due to the burning of fossil fuels, such reductions are not possible without significant and rapid improvements in energy efficiency and a shift to renewable energy.9 Additional environmental costs of conventional energy production and use include destruction wrought through resource extraction; air, soil, and water pollution; acid rain; and biodiversity loss. Conventional energy requires vast quantities of fresh water. Mining and drilling affect the way of life and the very existence of indigenous peoples worldwide. In China, the environmental and health costs of air pollution, due mainly to coal burning, totaled approximately 7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 1995. The World Bank estimates that under business as usual, these costs could rise to 13 percent of China’s GDP by 2020. After a decade-long study, U.S. and European researchers calculated that the environmental and health costs associated with conventional energy are equivFossil Fuels (64 percent) Fossil Fuels (77 percent) Nuclear (17 percent) Nuclear (6 percent) Source: IEA Hydro and Traditional Biomass (15 percent) New Renewables (2 percent) Figure 5–1. World Energy Consumption by Source, 2000 Source: IEA Hydropower (17 percent) Other Renewables (2 percent) Figure 5–2. World Electricity Generation by Type, 2000 87 State of the World 2003 CHARTING A NEW ENERGY FUTURE BOX 5–1. CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE KYOTO PROTOCOL In its 2001 report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that “there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities” that have increased atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Pre-industrial concentrations were 280 ppm; today they are 371 ppm. Between 1990 and 2100, global temperatures are projected to increase between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees Celsius, and land areas will likely warm faster than the global average.To stabilize CO2 “at 450… ppm would require global anthropogenic [human-made] emissions to drop below 1990 levels, within a few decades.” Even if greenhouse gas emissions were to stabilize at present levels, it is expected that average temperatures and sea level would continue rising for centuries, but the rate of change will slow once stabilization is achieved. Under provisions of the Kyoto Protocol to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, industrial countries must reduce their CO2 emissions an average 5.2 percent below alent to 1–2 percent of the European Union’s annual GDP, and that the price paid for conventional energy is significantly lower than its total costs. (See Table 5–1.) These estimates do not include the costs of climate change— potentially the most expensive consequence. Global economic losses due to natural disasters, which are in line with events anticipated as a result of global warming, appear to be doubling with each decade, and annual losses from such events are expected to approach $150 billion over the next 10 years.10 The direct economic and security costs associated with conventional energy are also substantial. Nuclear power is one of the most expensive means of generating electricity, even without accounting for the risks of nuclear accidents, weapons proliferation, and 88 their 1990 levels by the end of the first “commitment period” (2008–12).The protocol will enter into force 90 days after ratification by 55 countries accounting for at least 55 percent of industrial-country 1990 CO2 emissions. As of mid-October 2002, 96 nations had ratified Kyoto, including the European Union and Japan, representing 37.4 percent of industrial-country emissions. Russia (17.4 percent) and Poland (3 percent) have officially declared their intention to ratify it soon—which would raise the total to 57.8 percent and thus bring the protocol into effect. The United States represents 25 percent of current global emissions, and 36.4 percent of industrial-country 1990 emissions. Its March 2001 withdrawal from negotiations on the protocol dealt a blow to international efforts to battle climate change, but it also pushed the rest of the world to move forward and reach final agreement on the treaty in July 2001. SOURCE: See endnote 9. problems associated with nuclear waste. Political, economic, and military conflicts over limited resources such as oil will become more significant as demand increases worldwide. Similarly, the price of fossil fuels will become increasingly erratic as demand rises and conflicts rage in oil-rich regions, which in turn would affect the stability of economies around the world. The economic costs of relying on imported fuels are extremely high—it is estimated that African countries spend 80 percent of their export earnings on imported oil. Likewise, the benefits of reducing imports can be significant. If not for Brazil’s 25-year ethanol program, which now displaces 220,000 barrels of oil per day, the country’s foreign debt would be about $140 billion higher, according to one estimate.11 State of the World 2003 CHARTING A NEW ENERGY FUTURE Table 5–1. Costs of Electricity With and Renewable resources are genWithout External Costs erally domestic, pose no fuel or transport hazards, and are much Electricity Generating External Total less vulnerable to terrorist attack. Source Costs 1 Costs 2 Costs They can be installed rapidly and (cents per kilowatt-hour) in dispersed small- or large-scale applications—getting power Coal/lignite 4.3–4.8 2–15 6.3–19.8 quickly to areas where it is Natural gas (new) 3.4–5.0 1–4 4.4–9.0 urgently needed, delaying investNuclear 10–14 0.2–0.7 10.2–14.7 Biomass 7–9 1–3 8–12 ment in expensive new electric Hydropower 2.4–7.7 0–1 2.4–8.7 plants or power lines, and reducPhotovoltaics 25–50 0.6 25.6–50.6 ing investment risk. All renewWind 4–6 0.05–0.25 4.05–6.25 ables except biomass energy 1 avoid fuel costs and the risks For the United States and Europe. 2 Environmental and health costs for 15 countries in Europe. associated with future fuel price SOURCE: See endnote 10. fluctuations. They pose significantly lower social, environmental, and health costs than conventional energy Many of the jobs are high-wage and highfuels and technologies do. tech, and require a range of skills, often in Further, “renewables is not just about areas that are rural or economically depressed. energy and the environment but also about Economic woes and high unemployment manufacturing and jobs.” This ringing rates influenced Spain’s 1994 decision to endorsement came from U.K. Energy Mininvest in renewable energy. In Germany, the ister Brian Wilson in July 2002, after the wind industry has created 40,000 jobs, comcommissioning of a new 30-megawatt wind pared with 38,000 in nuclear power—an farm atop Beinn an Tuirc, a hill in the northindustry that generates 30 percent of Gerern reaches of Argylle, Scotland. The Kintyre many’s electricity.13 Peninsula of Argylle once thrived on its fishA recent study in California concluded eries, whiskey production, and textile manuthat increasing renewable energy technologies in that state would create four times more jobs facture. These traditional sources of than continued operation of natural gas employment are in decline, and now wind plants, while keeping billions of dollars in power is breathing new life into the region’s California that would otherwise go to out-ofeconomy, generating enough electricity to state power purchases. According to Goversupply 25,000 homes. A new turbine manunor Gray Davis, over a five-year period the net facturing plant on the peninsula will provide benefits of renewable energy, compared with steady jobs and produce the first large-scale business as usual, include $11 billion in ecowind turbines ever built in Britain.12 Using renewables stimulates local econnomic development benefits for California because of associated job creation and inomies by attracting investment and tourist state investments.14 money and by creating employment not only in northern Scotland but elsewhere around In developing countries such as Brazil and the world. Renewable energy provides more India, where millions of people lack access to jobs per unit of capacity or output and per power, renewables can provide electricity dollar spent than conventional energies do. more cheaply and quickly than the extension 89 State of the World 2003 CHARTING A NEW ENERGY FUTURE of power lines and construction of new plants could, and can aid in economic development. Renewables are also sources of reliable power for businesses in countries such as India where power cuts are common. M. Kannappan, India’s Minister of Non-Conventional Energy Sources, has stated that renewables have “enormous potential to meet the growing requirements of the increasing populations of the developing world, whilst offering sustainable solutions to the threat of global climate change.”15 The energy services delivered by renewables provide communities with access to education, clean water, improved health care, communications, and entertainment. These resources, in turn, improve the quality of life (particularly for women), raise living standards, increase productivity, and reduce the potential for economic and political instability. In Inner Mongolia, thousands of people now have access to education, information, and other benefits for the first time thanks to the use of televisions and radios powered by small wind and solar systems. As a result, they have become more productive and increased their monthly household incomes by as much as $150. (The average per capita annual net income in Inner Mongolia ranges from about $120 to $240.)16 Many of the components if not the entire systems for solar homes, wind farms, and other renewable technologies are now manufactured or assembled in developing countries, creating local jobs, reducing costs, and keeping capital investments at home. China and India have both developed domestic wind turbine industries. Brazil’s ethanol program, begun in 1975, has created more than 1 million jobs while also bringing the nation’s CO2 emissions 20 percent below what they would have been otherwise. Brazil now exports ethanol fuel and will soon begin exporting its technologies as well. And in 90 Kenya, more than 100 firms (6 of them domestic) provide PV systems or service, with numerous companies selling solar home systems in almost every town.17 Developing countries that invest in renewables will discover that they are energy-rich— that they can leapfrog over dirty technologies relied on earlier in industrial countries and can develop their economies with clean, domestic, secure sources of energy that avoid longterm and costly imports. In light of the many advantages of renewables, the Task Force on Renewable Energy of the Group of Eight industrial countries concluded in 2001 that “though there will be a higher cost in the first decades, measured solely in terms of the costs so far reflected in the market, successfully promoting renewables over the period to 2030 will prove less expensive than taking a ‘business as usual’ approach within any realistic range of discount rates.”18 State of the Technologies 2003 Since the 1970s and 1980s, renewable technologies have improved significantly in both performance and cost. Some are experiencing rates of growth and technology advancement comparable only to the electronics industry. Global clean energy markets exceeded $10 billion in 2001 and are expected to surpass $82 billion by 2010, and major corporations are entering the renewables marketplace— including Royal Dutch/Shell, BP, and General Electric. Technical progress of many renewables—particularly wind power—has been faster than was anticipated even a few years ago, and this trend is expected to continue. While costs are still a concern with some technologies, these are falling rapidly due to technological advances, learning by doing, automated manufacturing, and economies of scale through increased pro- State of the World 2003 CHARTING A NEW ENERGY FUTURE duction volumes.19 Solar and wind are the most commonly known renewables, but inexhaustible energy supplies are also offered by biomass; geothermal; hydropower; ocean energy from the tides, currents, and waves; and ocean thermal energy. This chapter principally focuses on wind power and solar photovoltaics—which produce electricity from sunlight—because they are the fastest-growing renewables and have the greatest potential for helping all countries achieve more sustainable development. During the past 15–20 years, wind energy technology has evolved to the point where it competes with most conventional forms of power generation. In many instances, wind is now the cheapest option on a per-kilowatthour (kWh) basis. The main trends in wind energy development are toward lighter, more flexible blades, variable speed operation, direct-drive generators, and taller machines with greater capacity. The average turbine size has increased from 100–200 kilowatts (kW) in the early 1990s to more than 900 kW today, making it possible to produce more power with fewer machines. (One 900 kW machine can provide the electricity needed for about 540 European homes.) Turbines with capacity ratings of 2,000–5,000 kW (2–5 MW) are being manufactured for use offshore. At the same time, small wind machines that can be installed close to the point of demand—atop buildings, for example—are also under development. (See Box 5–2.) Advances in turbine technology and power electronics, along with a better understanding of siting needs and wind energy resources, have combined to extend the lifetime of today’s wind turbines, improve performance, and reduce costs.20 Since the early 1980s, the average cost of wind-generated electricity has fallen from about 44¢ (in 2001 dollars) per kilowatt- BOX 5–2. EXAMPLES OF ADVANCES IN WIND TECHNOLOGY • At the Rocky Flats test site in Colorado, the U.S. Department of Energy is testing a lightweight turbine with two blades rather than the usual three. It is expected to be 40 percent lighter than today’s standard turbines, require less material, and thus be 20–25 percent cheaper. • Vestas is now equipping offshore turbines with sensors to detect wear and tear on components, along with backup systems in case of power electronic system failures. • A turbine developed in Germany can desalinate water, generate electricity, or make hydrogen by electrolysis. • Mathematical climatic models have been developed in Germany and Denmark to predict wind resources 24–36 hours in advance with reasonable accuracy.This will be important for managing wind power as it reaches a high percentage of the total electric system. SOURCE: See endnote 20. hour to 4–6¢ at good wind sites. Costs vary from one location to the next due primarily to variations in wind speed and also to different institutional frameworks and interest rates. Globally, wind costs have declined by some 20 percent over just the past five years, and the Danish turbine manufacturer Vestas predicts that the generating costs of wind energy will continue to drop annually by 3–5 percent. As this happens, it will become economical to site turbines in regions with lower wind speeds, increasing the global potential for wind-generated electricity. 21 Global wind capacity has grown at an aver91 State of the World 2003 CHARTING A NEW ENERGY FUTURE age annual rate over 30 percent durMegawatts 25,000 ing the past decade. (See Figure 5–3.) An estimated 6,824 MW of 20,000 wind capacity were added worldwide in 2001, bringing the total to 15,000 more than 24,900 MW—enough to provide power to approximately 14 10,000 million households. While Europe accounts for more than 70 percent of 5,000 total capacity, wind is now generatSource: BTM, EWEA, AWEA, press reports ing electricity in at least 45 countries. 0 Sales in 2001 surpassed $6 billion, 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 nearly double the total two years Figure 5–3. Cumulative Global Wind earlier, and it is estimated that more Capacity, 1992–2001 than 100,000 people are now cell phone towers. (See Chapter 2.) Further, employed in the wind industry worldwide.22 The majority of turbines operating today such problems have been mitigated in recent are on land, but wind power is now moving years through the use of painted blades, offshore. This is due to a shortage of sites on slower rotational speeds, tubular turbine towland, particularly in Europe, and the fact that ers, and careful siting of projects.25 wind speeds offshore are significantly higher Both wind and sun are intermittent and more consistent. Stronger winds generresources, meaning they cannot be turned ate more electricity, while consistency reduces on and off as needed. But there is no guarwear and tear on machines. More than 80 antee that any resource will be available when MW of turbines are now spinning offshore, it is required, and utilities must have backup all of them in Europe, with an additional power for generation every day. Assessments 5,000 MW in the pipeline worldwide and in Europe and the United States have conmore than 20,000 MW proposed for areas cluded that intermittent sources can account surrounding northern Europe.23 for up to 20 percent of an electric system Experts estimate that onshore wind without posing technical problems; higher resources could provide more than four times levels might demand minor changes in operational practices. The wind already provides global electricity consumption. Offshore electricity to the grid (transmission lines) that resources are substantial as well. While some greatly exceeds 20 percent in regions of Gerof that potential is too costly to exploit over many, Denmark, and Spain, and distributed the near term, the promise of large amounts generation—for example, the use of solar of wind power at competitive prices is enorpanels on rooftops, or clusters of turbines mous.24 along the path of a power line—can improve As with all energy technologies, there are electric system reliability.26 disadvantages associated with wind power. The environmental factor that has caused the The challenges posed by intermittency are most controversy and concern is bird mornot of immediate concern in most countries tality. This is a site-specific problem, however, and will be overcome with hybrid systems, and it is relatively low compared with other improvements in wind forecasting technology, threats to birds such as vehicles, buildings, and and further development of storage tech92 State of the World 2003 CHARTING A NEW ENERGY FUTURE Megawatts nologies. New storage technologies 2,000 could also help tap renewable resources that are far from demand centers. Furthermore, what is most 1,500 significant is the per kilowatt-hour cost of electricity generated. Wind 1,000 power is already cost-competitive with most conventional technologies. Solar PVs are likely to see dra500 matic cost reductions, and they Source: Maycock produce power in the middle of hot 0 summer days when demand is great1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 est and electricity costs are highest.27 Figure 5–4. Cumulative Global Photovoltaic According to the U.S. National Capacity, 1992–2001 Renewable Energy Laborator y (NREL), PVs have the “potential to become States, but there are growing markets and one of the world’s most important indusmanufacturing bases in developing countries tries.” The potential PV market is huge, rangas well, including China and India. Global PV ing from consumer products (such as output is expected to increase at annual rates calculators and watches) and remote standof 40–50 percent over the next few years. As alone systems for electricity and water pumplarger factories come into operation, manuing to grid-connected systems on buildings facturers can increase the degree of automaand large-scale power plants.28 tion.30 Each year the sun delivers to Earth more Such evolving industrial processes, along than 10,000 times the energy that humans with technological advances in PVs and currently use. While PVs account for a small economies of scale, have led already to sigshare of global electricity generation, they nificant cost reductions. Since 1976, costs have experienced dramatic growth over the have dropped 20 percent for every doubling past decade. Since 1996, global PV shipof installed PV capacity, or about 5 percent ments have increased at an average annual rate annually. PVs are now the cheapest option for of 33 percent. It took nearly 30 years, up until many remote or off-grid functions. When 1999, for the world to produce its first used for facades of buildings, PVs can be gigawatt (GW) of solar PVs (see Figure 5–4), cheaper than other materials such as marble but some experts expect a doubling as soon or granite, with the added advantage of proas 2003. The PV industry generates business ducing electricity. Currently, generating costs worth more than $2 billion annually and range from 25¢ to $1 per kWh, which is still provides tens of thousands of jobs. More extremely high, and cost remains the prithan a million households in the developing mary barrier to more widespread use of solar world now have electricity for the first time PVs. But companies around the world are in from solar PVs, while more than 100,000 a race to create future generations of products households in industrial countries suppleto make PVs cost-competitive even for onment their utility power with PV systems.29 grid use. (See Box 5–3.)31 The production of solar cells is concenIn addition to cost, one of the primary trated in Japan, Europe, and the United concerns regarding PVs’ ability to meet a 93 State of the World 2003 CHARTING A NEW ENERGY FUTURE BOX 5–3. THE SOLAR RACE • An Australian company is the first to manufacture solar PVs that can be incorporated into glass walls of buildings. When light falls on the glass from any angle, it will generate electricity. • The U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Spectrolabs have developed a Triple-Junction Terrestrial Concentrator Solar Cell that is 34 percent efficient and that can be manufactured for less than $1 per watt, according to NREL. (The maximum recorded laboratory efficiency is 24.7 percent, while the average cost of today’s PVs is $5–12 per watt.) • Spheral solar technology, being developed in Canada, will bond tiny silicon beads into an aluminum foil.While mass market application could take decades, this technology could halve the cost of power generation. SOURCE: See endnote 31. major portion of global electricity demand is the length of time they must operate to produce as much energy as was used to manufacture them. The energy “pay-back” period for today’s cells in rooftop systems is one to four years, with expected lifetimes of up to 30 years, depending on the technology. The manufacture of PVs also requires a number of hazardous materials, including many of the chemicals and heavy metals used in the semiconductor electronics industry. There are techniques and equipment to reduce environmental and safety risks, however, and these problems are minimal compared with those associated with conventional energy technologies.32 Global markets for renewables such as 94 solar and wind power are only just beginning a dramatic expansion, starting from relatively low levels. It is useful to point out, however, that despite increasing concerns regarding safety and high costs, it took less than 30 years for nuclear power to develop into an industry that provides 16–17 percent of global electricity. The same can happen with renewable technologies. In fact, during 2001 the nuclear industry added only 25 percent as much capacity to the grid as wind did. If the average growth rates of wind and solar PV over the past decade were to continue to 2020, the world would have about 48,000 MW of installed solar PV capacity and more than 2.6 million MW of wind— equivalent to 78 percent of global electric capacity in 2000, or about 45 percent of projected 2020 capacity. Such continued growth is unlikely, but recent industry reports have concluded that if the necessary institutional framework is put in place, it is feasible for wind to meet 12 percent of global electricity demand by 2020 and for PVs to meet 26 percent by 2040.33 The German Story When the 1990s began, Germany had virtually no renewable energy industry, and in the view of most Germans the country was unlikely ever to be in the forefront of these alternative energy sources. Regulations governing the electricity sector, which dated from the 1930s, granted utilities monopoly rights to produce, distribute, and sell electricity. Utility opposition, entrenched nuclear and coal industries, and a general tendency to conservatism made Germany barren ground for renewable energy advocates. Jochen Twele, a German wind energy expert, recalls that, “when I started my job on wind energy in 1981, I thought that wind energy had only a chance in remote areas of developing State of the World 2003 CHARTING A NEW ENERGY FUTURE countries. So I concentrated on Africa.” Due to the strength of labor unions—traditionally strategic partners with the Social Democratic Party (known as SPD)—the indifference to renewables in the German left was at least as strong as it was among the industry-friendly and strongly pro-nuclear Christian Democrats. Even today, utilities and the government maintain strong ties. For example, in the state of North Rhine–Westphalia, many local political representatives are board members of the state utility company.34 Yet by the end of the 1990s, Germany had been transformed into a renewable energy leader. With a fraction as much potential in wind and solar power as the United States, Germany has almost three times as much installed wind capacity (more than one third of total global capacity) and is a world leader in solar PVs as well. In the space of a decade, Germany created a new, multibillion-dollar industry and tens of thousands of new jobs. This metamorphosis provides helpful lessons for the scores of countries that have not yet determined how to unleash the potential of their own indigenous renewable energy sources. The German story began in the 1970s, when high oil prices sparked a growing interest in alternative sources of energy and the government began funding renewable energy research and development (R&D). But the resulting sporadic efforts were unsuccessful in spurring commercial development. The major political parties remained comfortable with the strategy that nuclear power would be the long-run replacement for fossil fuel plants. All of this changed with the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986, which led the public to turn firmly against nuclear power and to begin a serious search for alternatives. For the first time, Germans began to question their energy supply system. Two years later, rising awareness of climate change, brought on by record high temperatures and mounting scientific evidence of humaninduced warming, heightened people’s concerns. In 1990, the German Bundestag prepared a study on protecting Earth’s climate, with the goal of developing new strategies for a less risky (meaning less nuclear power) and less carbon-intensive energy future.35 In response to mounting public pressure, in late 1990 the Bundestag passed a new energy law that required utilities to purchase the electricity generated from all renewable technologies in their supply area, and to pay a minimum price for it—at least 90 percent of the retail price in the case of wind and solar power. This new “Electricity Feed-in Law” (EFL)—Stromeinspeisungsgesetz— provided fair access and standard pricing for new renewables. It was a dramatic break from past regulation as it enabled private producers to sell their renewably generated electricity to utilities at a competitive price, and it prevented electric utilities from further stalling development.36 The German law was inspired in part by similar policies that had proved effective in Denmark. It was strongly supported by owners of small hydropower plants in southern mountainous areas of Germany and by farmers on the northern plains who envied their Danish neighbors’ ability to profitably install wind turbines and sell their power. These conservative Christian Democrat supporters of renewables were joined by Social Democrats and Greens who favored legislation to protect the environment and create a market for renewable energy. Hermann Scheer, a Social Democrat in the Bundestag who is considered one of the “fathers” of German renewable energy policy, also played an important role by helping to draft and push through the revolutionary one-page EFL. For their part, the coal industry and electric utilities did 95 State of the World 2003 CHARTING A NEW ENERGY FUTURE not take renewables seriously, and chose not to actively oppose the legislation, and the law was adopted unanimously by the German Bundestag.37 Wind energy development began a steady and dramatic surge soon after the EFL entered into force on 1 January 1991. Farmers, small investors, and start-up manufacturers created a new industry from scratch, and a growing number of turbines rose up from the flat plains of the northern coast where the wind blows strongest. The average cost of manufacturing wind turbines in Germany fell by 43 percent between 1990 and 2000. Because most of the initial wind development was in the north, the coastal states and their utilities bore the greatest financial burden for Germany’s renewable energy projects. The strong regional variations fostered opposition to the law and to wind power itself among utilities and conservative factions of the German government, leading to efforts to declare the EFL unconstitutional. But there was increasing support for renewables as well. In September 1997, 5,000 people flocked to the streets of Bonn to rally in favor of wind power and continuation of the EFL. Opponents failed to overturn the law, although it was amended in 1998 to set a cap on electricity generated by renewable energy.38 The 5 percent cap, combined with falling electricity prices (and thus declining payments for renewable electricity) due to deregulation of the market, threatened the viability of existing and planned renewable energy projects. This was of great concern not only to renewable energy developers and producers, but also to major German financial institutions that were underwriting these projects. In response, the Bundestag adopted the 96 Renewable Energy Law (REL) in April 2000.39 The Renewable Energy Law removed the cap on renewables, and required that renewable electricity be distributed among all suppliers based on their total electricity sales, ensuring that no one region would be overly burdened. The law also required companies that operate the transmission system to pay the costs of connection to the electric grid, eliminating barriers that arose when utilities discouraged wind development through inflated connection charges. Perhaps most important, it established specific per kilowatt-hour payments for each renewable technology based on the real costs of generation. Electric utilities qualify for these payments as well, a change driven by liberalization of the electricity sector, which the government correctly expected would reduce utility opposition while further stimulating the renewables market.40 Although the vote on this new law was not unanimous, broad support from the German public—including labor unions, farmers, environmentalists, and renewable industries— enabled the SPD-Green coalition to push it through Parliament. Again, utilities challenged the law, claiming that it was a subsidy and not legal within the European Union. The government responded that preferential payments for renewable energy were intended to internalize the costs of conventional energy and compensate for the benefits of renewables. In March 2001, the European Court of Justice ruled that the payments were not state aid and therefore not a subsidy. Utilities have since realized that they, too, can benefit from the REL.41 After the first access and pricing law was enacted, some barriers to wind energy remained. A major obstacle to German wind development in the mid-1990s was lengthy, inconsistent, and complex procedures for sit- State of the World 2003 CHARTING A NEW ENERGY FUTURE ing wind turbines. As the number of turbines installed in some regions began to skyrocket, local opposition to wind power started to emerge as well. The German government responded by encouraging communities to zone specific areas for wind—a step that both addressed issues that created opposition to wind power, such as noise and concern about aesthetic impacts, and assured prospective turbine owners that they would find sites for their machines. Worldwide, one of the major barriers to renewable technologies has been the high initial capital costs of these projects. Thus the cost of borrowing plays a major role in the viability of renewable energy markets. Germany addressed this through low-interest loans offered by major banks and refinanced by the federal government. In addition, income tax credits granted only to projects and equipment that meet specified standards have enabled people to take tax deductions against their investments in renewable energy projects. Over the years, these credits have drawn billions of dollars to the wind industry. The combination of these two policies and the access and pricing laws has enabled a diverse group of Germans to invest in wind power, leading to significant increases in installed capacity, associated jobs, and a broad base of political support for the industry.42 In the late 1980s, before the access and pricing laws and investment tax credits, the German government established a small, subsidized demonstration program that was inspired by Denmark’s experiences, in an effort to change its approach to R&D. The program offered a one-time investment rebate or an on-going production payment to people who installed wind turbines, in exchange for participation in a long-term measurement and evaluation effort. It funded the installation of only 350 MW, a fraction of today’s total wind capacity, but was significant because it encouraged wind development and enabled German manufacturers to sell their machines at higher prices to finance internal R&D. The program has also made it possible for the German government to track and publish years of useful data on capacity, generation, and operation of wind machines, which continues to this day. 43 Several state governments have offered incentives for renewable projects, have funded studies of onshore wind potential, and have established institutes to collect and publish wind energy data. The federal government recently carried out an offshore resource study, and has advanced awareness about renewable technologies through architectural, engineering, and other relevant vocational training programs, as well as through publications on the potential of renewables and available subsidies.44 Although all these policies have played an important role, the fair access and standard pricing laws (EFL and REL) have had the greatest impact on Germany’s renewables industries, particularly wind power. They ended uncertainties regarding whether producers could sell their electricity into the grid and at what price, and they provided investor confidence—making it easier for even small producers to obtain bank loans and drawing investment money into the industries. Increased investment drove improvements in technology, advanced learning and experience, and produced economies of scale that have led to dramatic cost reductions. The average cost of manufacturing turbines in Germany fell by 43 percent between 1990 and 2000. As a result, it became more profitable to install turbines in areas with lower wind speeds, thereby distributing turbines more evenly around Germany and reducing conflicts with competing land uses.45 German wind capacity mushroomed from 56 MW at the beginning of 1991 to more 97 State of the World 2003 CHARTING A NEW ENERGY FUTURE than 6,100 MW a decade later, with additions increasing steadily each year. Wind capacity was expected to reach nearly 12,000 MW by the end of 2002, meeting 3.75 percent of Germany’s electricity needs. In northern reaches of the country, where most of the development is concentrated, wind power provides as much as 26 percent of annual electricity needs, close to nuclear power’s share for Germany as a whole. Some 40,000 people work in Germany’s wind industry, producing turbines for domestic use and export. So many Germans own shares in turbines or work in the industry that there is now broad public support for wind power.46 Germany has promoted solar energy with policies similar to those for wind power. Incentives to encourage PVs began in 1991 with the 1,000 Roofs program, which like the early wind programs offered support in exchange for ongoing evaluation and monitoring of systems. It was upgraded in 1999 to 100,000 Roofs, a five-year program that offers 10-year low-interest loans to individuals and businesses for installation of solar PVs. Since 1992, PVs have experienced an average annual growth rate of nearly 49 percent. Germany surpassed the United States in 2001, ending the year with 192 MW of capacity, most of which is on-grid. When the 100,000 Solar Roofs program expires at the end of 2003, it is expected that Germany’s PV capacity could reach nearly 440 MW.47 By lowering the cost of capital, the 100,000 Solar Roofs program effectively reduced the price of PV installation by 37 percent. Combined with the mandated payments of 45¢ per kWh under the REL, this program has had a major impact on the PV market. Total PV system prices have fallen 39 percent over the past decade, and full-time jobs in the PV industry have more than quadrupled, to 6,000, since 1995. To meet rapidly rising demand, major German manufacturers plan 98 to expand PV manufacturing facilities significantly over the next five years, which will further reduce costs and increase employment.48 Germany has pledged to reduce its CO2 emissions 21 percent below 1990 levels by 2010, and the nation will accomplish much of this through increased use of renewable energy. Total renewable energy revenues in Germany and electricity produced by renewable sources both increased 35 percent between 2000 and 2001. For the longer term, the German government aims for wind to generate 25 percent of electricity needs by 2025, with 20,000–25,000 MW of capacity offshore, and considers solar PVs as a viable long-term option for large-scale power generation.49 Policy Lessons From Around the World It is difficult to claim that something is impossible once it has already occurred. This is why it is globally significant that the world’s third largest economy, a country with no tradition of renewable energy development, was able to transform itself from laggard to leader in less than a decade. What Germany has accomplished can be replicated elsewhere— if a successful mix of policies is in place. The main obstacles that have kept new renewables from producing more than a small share of energy in most of the world, despite their tremendous advantages and potential, are lack of access to the grid, high cost, lack of information, and biased, inappropriate, and inconsistent government policies. Germany’s dramatic success over the past decade stems from a range of policies introduced to address all these barriers. The experiences of Germany and other countries provide an array of promising policy options that can be disseminated around the world. State of the World 2003 CHARTING A NEW ENERGY FUTURE There are five major categories of relevant policies: • regulations that govern capacity access to the grid and utility obligations, • financial incentives, • education and information dissemination, • stakeholder involvement, and • industry standards and permitting. There is not necessarily a direct link between these policy types and the four obstacles just described, as some of the policy options tackle a combination of barriers. An additional critical element is the need for a general change in government perspective and approach to energy policy. As Germany’s experience demonstrates, access to the grid is imperative for renewables to gain a foothold. Three main types of regulatory policies have been used to open the grid to renewables. One guarantees price, another ensures market share (mandated targets), and the third guarantees utility purchase of excess electricity from small-scale, distributed systems. The first is the fair access and standard pricing law. The marriage of a guaranteed market and long-term minimum payments has reduced the risks associated with investing in renewables, making it profitable to invest in wind, solar, and other technologies and easier to obtain financing. By creating demand for renewable electricity, the access and pricing law has attracted private investment for R&D, has spread the costs of technology advancement and diffusion relatively evenly across a nation’s population, and has enabled the scale-up in production and experience in installation, operation, and maintenance needed to bring down the costs of renewable technologies and the power they produce. Laws similar to Germany’s access and pricing law have been enacted in Denmark, Spain, and several other European countries, includ- ing France, Italy, Portugal, and Greece. When Spain passed an access and pricing law in 1994, relatively few wind turbines were spinning in the Spanish plains or mountains; by the end of 2000, the country ranked third in the world for wind installations, surpassed only by Germany and the United States. Spain now generates 2 percent of its electricity with the wind—but more than 20 percent in some regions—and is home to the world’s second largest wind turbine manufacturer.50 While fair access and standard pricing laws establish the price and let the market determine capacity and generation, mandated targets work in reverse—the government sets a target and lets the market determine the price. (See Box 5–4.) A mandated capacity target, called a Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS), is primarily responsible for the rapid growth of wind energy in Texas since 1999, when the state required that 2,000 MW of additional renewable capacity be installed within a decade. Texas was more than halfway there with wind alone by mid-2002, and the target will likely be met before 2009. But the mandates have done little to encourage the use of more expensive technologies such as solar PVs, despite vast solar resources in Texas. Nationwide, about a third of the 50 states have RPS laws, many of them with less success than Texas.51 The United Kingdom passed legislation on mandated targets in 1989. Between 1990 and 1998, renewable energy developers competed for contracts to provide electric capacity in a series of bidding rounds. While this system made it easier to obtain financing and drove wind costs down through competition, it created major problems. The bidding system led to flurries of activity followed by long lulls with no development, making it difficult to build a domestic turbine manufacturing industry and infeasible for small firms or cooperatives to take part. In addition, 99 State of the World 2003 CHARTING A NEW ENERGY FUTURE BOX 5–4. RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGETS Although no agreement was reached at the World Summit on Sustainable Development on numerical targets for new renewables with specific deadlines, countries around the world are setting their own targets.“Targets” can be goals or obligations.They can be highly effective if used to guide policies that encourage the use of renewables. But targets alone achieve little. For example, renewable energy targets for capacity and generation have been set in the United States since the mid-1970s, often in federal legislation, but rarely achieved.An extreme example is President Jimmy Carter’s goal for wind energy to produce 500 billion kWh of electricity by 2000—actual wind generation reached only about 1 percent of this target. Germany, on the other hand, has exceeded most if not all of its targets to date. Denmark has also set national targets, or goals, for wind and other renewables since the country’s earliest national energy plans, nearly three decades ago.Time and again, Denmark’s targets for wind competition to reduce costs and win contracts led developers to seek sites with the highest wind speeds, which are often also areas of scenic beauty. This increased public opposition to wind energy and made it more difficult to obtain project permits. When the program ended in late 1999, more than 2,670 MW of wind capacity were under contract, but only 344 MW had been installed.52 Another option used in a number of countries, including Japan, Thailand, Canada, and several states in the United States, permits consumers to install small renewable systems at their homes or businesses and then to sell excess electricity into the grid. This “net metering” is different from the access and pricing laws in Europe primarily in scale and implementation. In the United States, 36 states—including California and Texas—had 100 energy have been surpassed: for example, in 1981, the national energy plan called for wind to generate 10 percent of the nation’s electricity by 2000; this target was met three years early. In 1999 the government aimed to double the nation’s share of electricity generated by renewables to 20 percent by the beginning of 2003, a goal that has been met with wind alone. The current energy plan aims for renewable resources to meet 35 percent of Denmark’s energy needs by 2030 in order to meet ambitious CO2 emissions reduction targets. Such policies send strong signals to the market, announcing that the wind industry is a good place to invest for the long term. But targets in Denmark and Germany have had meaning only because appropriate, consistent, long-term policies have been enacted to achieve them. Unfortunately, changes in Danish policies since 1999 could jeopardize existing targets. SOURCE: See endnote 51. net metering laws by mid-2002, with varying degrees of success. Neither California nor Texas saw much benefit for wind power, let alone for more costly renewables like solar PVs, until other incentives were added to the mix. Success in attracting new renewable energy investments and capacity depends on limits set on participation (capacity caps, number of customers, or share of peak demand); on the price paid, if any, for net excess generation; on the existence of gridconnection standards; on enforcement mechanisms; and on other available incentives. Mandated targets and net metering can be used simultaneously.53 Of all these regulatory options, the fair access and standard pricing laws have consistently proved to be the most successful. While more than 45 countries have installed wind State of the World 2003 CHARTING A NEW ENERGY FUTURE capacity during the Megawatts 3,500 1990s, just three—GerSource: Gipe, AWEA, Germany (est) 3,000 many, Denmark, and BWE, Wagner, IDAE United States Spain—accounted for 2,500 Spain more than 59 percent 2,000 of total additions for the 1,500 period 1991 through 1,000 (est) 2001. More than 80 percent of the 1,388 500 (est) MW of wind capacity 0 installed worldwide dur–500 ing the first half of 2002 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 was located in three Figure 5–5. Wind Power Capacity Additions in Germany, Spain, countries with guaranand the United States, 1980–2002 teed minimum prices— Germany, Spain, and Italy. (See Figure 5–5.)54 ping center developers flocked to the wind Financial incentives, the second category business, and untested designs were rushed of policies, directly reduce the costs of renewinto production—all to take advantage of able energy. Market compensation in the credits that enabled wealthy investors to form of tax credits, rebates, and payments recoup anywhere from 66 to 95 percent of subsidizes investment in a technology or the their investment over the first few years, in production of power. (See Box 5–5.) This has some cases without even generating a kilobeen used extensively in Europe, Japan, the watt-hour of power.56 United States, and India (the only developA decade later, India saw a similar boom, ing country that has enacted tax credits to due to a combination of investment tax creddate).55 its, financing assistance, and accelerated depreIn the early 1980s, the initial capital costs ciation. India is now the world’s fifth largest of renewable projects were far higher than producer of wind power and has developed they are today. To encourage investment in a domestic manufacturing industry. As in renewables, the U.S. government and CaliCalifornia, however, investment-based subfornia offered investors credit against their sidies and a lack of turbine standards or proincome tax, making it possible for people to duction requirements led wealthy investors to recoup a significant share of their money in use wind farms as tax shelters, and several the first few years and reducing their level of projects experienced poor performance despite the significant technology advancerisk. The credits played a major role in a wind ments since the early 1980s. In both cases, boom that many called California’s second wind energy markets and industries slowed gold rush. The lessons learned and economies of scale gained through this experience considerably when investment credits advanced wind technology and reduced its expired.57 costs. But enormous tax breaks and a lack of Japan has provided investment subsidies technology standards encouraged fraud and through rebates and has seen dramatic success the use of substandard equipment. Inexperiwith PVs. As with the early wind subsidies in enced financial companies and former shopGermany and a similar effort in Denmark, PV 101 State of the World 2003 CHARTING A NEW ENERGY FUTURE BOX 5–5. THE CASE FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY SUBSIDIES While some observers argue that incentives to encourage the development and use of renewables are costly and unnecessary, market compensation is warranted for several reasons. First, it begins to account for the environmental, social, and security costs of conventional energy that are not incorporated into the price of the energy. Second, nuclear power and fossil fuels have feasted on decades of subsidies, and in most cases continue to receive far more subsidies than renewables, creating an uneven “playing field.” Renewables have been competing against moving targets, as continued subsidies and research for conventional energy have reduced their costs as well.As a result, renewables are behind on the learning curve and need compensation in order to close the gap. German parliamentarian Hermann Scheer has noted that “no energy source was ever established without political support. Policy support for the initiation of renewable energy is a matter of market fairness for abolishing the existing bias.” Finally, the electricity sector in most countries is governed by regulations that were enacted to aid in the development of conventional electric systems and now favor them at the expense of renewables. SOURCE: See endnote 55. users receive a rebate in return for providing data about system operations. By 2000, the Japanese government was investing $200 million annually in this program. The goal was to create market awareness and stimulate PV production in order to reduce costs through economies of scale and technology improvements, and thereby enable large-scale power generation and the export of PVs to the rest 102 of the world. And the policy has succeeded. Total capacity has increased an average of more than 41 percent annually since 1992, and Japan now leads the world in the manufacture and use of solar PVs, having surpassed the United States at both in the late 1990s. (See Figure 5–6.) To keep up with demand, Japanese PV manufacturers have dramatically increased their production capacity. As a result, PV system costs in Japan have dropped 75 percent since the mid-1990s, and Sharp is now the world’s leading producer of solar cells.58 Since 1994, the U.S. government has offered a production tax credit for people who supply wind-generated electricity to the grid. The credit has encouraged wind development, but only in those states with additional incentives, and it provides greater benefit to those with higher income levels and tax loads. California has enacted a production incentive that awards a per kWh payment, rather than a tax credit, for existing and new wind projects. The program has kept 4,400 MW of existing renewable capacity online and led to the development of another 1,300 MW. It is financed through a small per kWh charge on electricity use, meaning that Californians share the cost of the program according to the amount of power they consume. Provided that such payments are high enough to cover the costs of renewable generation and are guaranteed over a long enough time period, this policy is a possible alternative to the fair access and standard pricing law— similar in effect and perhaps more politically feasible in some countries.59 Experiences to date demonstrate that payments and rebates are preferable to tax credits. Unlike tax credits, the benefits of payments and rebates are equal for people of all income levels. In addition, investment grants result in more even growth over time rather than encouraging people to invest at the end of tax State of the World 2003 CHARTING A NEW ENERGY FUTURE Megawatts periods (as tax credits tend to do). Fur500 ther, production incentives are generally Source: PVPS, EPI Japan preferable to investment subsidies 400 United States because they promote the desired outcome—generation of electricity. They 300 are most likely to encourage optimum performance and a sustained industry. 200 However, policies must be tailored to particular technologies and stages of 100 maturation. Investment subsidies in the form of tax credits or, preferably, rebates 0 can be helpful when a technology is 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 still maturing and relatively expensive, Figure 5–6. Cumulative Photovoltaic Capacity as seen with PVs in Japan.60 in Japan and the United States, 1992–2001 Financing assistance in the form of low-interest, long-term loans and loan guarterms of long-term, low-interest loans vary by antees is also essential to overcome barriers technology, with the most favorable ones due to the high up-front capital costs of being for PVs. Through small-scale lending renewables. Lowering the cost of capital can programs, even low-income people are able bring down the average cost of electricity to purchase small systems. In addition, the and reduce the risk of investment, as seen in national government has worked to obtain Germany. Even in the developing world, all bilateral and multilateral funding for largebut the very poorest people are able and willscale projects, particularly wind.62 ing to pay for reliable energy services, and the Information dissemination is the third key rate of on-time payment is extremely high. policy component. Even if a government But the poor also need access to low-cost offers generous incentives and low-cost capcapital and the opportunity to lease systems.61 ital, people will not invest in renewable energy One of the most successful means for disif they lack information regarding resource seminating household-scale renewable techavailability, technology development, the nologies in rural China has been through numerous advantages and potential of renewlocal public-private bodies that offer such ables, the fuel mix of the energy they use, and services as technical support, materials sale, the incentives themselves. During the 1980s, subsidies, and government loans for locally several states in the United States offered manufactured technology. These bodies fresubstantial subsidies for wind energy—including a 100 percent tax credit in Arkansas, a quently provide revolving credit, with repaystate with enough wind to generate half of its ment linked to the timing of a household’s electricity. But these subsidies evoked little income stream—for example, payments come interest due to a lack of knowledge about due after crops have been harvested. As a result of this program more than 140,000 wind resources. By contrast, it was wind small wind turbines, producing power for resource studies in California, Hawaii, and more than a half-million people, have been Minnesota that led to interest in wind energy installed in Inner Mongolia—the greatest there.63 number of household-scale wind plants operPast experiences—from failed Californian ating anywhere in the world. In India, the wind projects in the 1980s to early develop- 103 State of the World 2003 CHARTING A NEW ENERGY FUTURE ment projects in Africa—or lack of experience have left people in much of the world with a perception that renewables do not work, are inadequate to meet their needs, are too expensive, or are too risky as investments. Above all, it is essential that government leaders recognize the inherent value of renewable energy. Then governments, nongovernmental organizations, and industry must work together to educate labor organizations about employment benefits, architects and city planners about ways to incorporate renewables into building projects and their value to local communities, agricultural communities about their potential to increase farming incomes, and so on. In India, the government’s Solar Finance Capacity Building Initiative educates Indian bank officials about solar technologies and encourages them to invest in projects. The Indian government has also used print, radio, songs, and theater to educate the public about the benefits of renewable energy and government incentives, and has established training programs.64 Knowledge is power, as the saying goes, and disseminating information about renewables far and wide will beget more renewable power. At the local, national, and international levels, it is essential to share information regarding technology performance and cost, capacity and generation statistics, and policy successes and failures in order to increase awareness and to avoid reinventing the wheel each time. While several countries now do this on a national level, a centralized global clearinghouse for such information is clearly needed. A fourth strategy that has increased support for renewables—particularly wind power—is encouraging individual and cooperative ownership. In Germany and Denmark, where individuals singly or as members of cooperatives still own most of the turbines installed, there is strong and broad public 104 support for wind energy. Farmers, doctors, and many others own turbines or shares of wind farms, and stand beside labor and environmental groups in backing policies that support wind power. The largest offshore wind farm in the world as of late 2002—the 40 MW Middelgrunden project off the coast of Copenhagen—is co-owned by a utility and several thousand Danes who have purchased shares in the project. Through cooperatives, people share in the risks and benefits of wind power; often avoid the problems associated with obtaining financing and paying interest; play a direct role in the siting, planning, and operation of machines; and gain a sense of pride and community. Several surveys have demonstrated that those who own shares of projects and those living closest to wind turbines view wind power more positively than those who have no economic interest or experience with it.65 Public participation and a sense of ownership are as important in the South as in the North. When technologies are “forced” on people without consultation regarding their needs or desires or are donated as part of an aid package, people often place little value on them and do not feel they have a stake in maintaining them. On the flip side, when individuals and communities play a role in decisionmaking and ownership, they are literally empowered and become invested in the success of the technologies. The fifth essential ingredient in the policy package is industry standards—ranging from technology certification to siting and permitting requirements. Germany established an investment tax credit for wind energy in 1991, and while it too has been abused as a tax loophole for the wealthy, Germany has avoided the quality control problems experienced in California and India by enacting turbine standards and certification requirements. Standards can include everything from State of the World 2003 CHARTING A NEW ENERGY FUTURE turbine blades, electronics, and safety systems to performance and compatibility with the transmissions system. Denmark adopted wind turbine standards in 1979, largely due to pressure from the wind industry itself. The sharing of information among turbine owners and manufacturers and the Danish technology standards program have combined to enable manufacturers to recognize and address problems with their technologies and to create pride in Danish machines. Standards prevent substandard technologies from entering the marketplace and generate greater confidence in the product, reducing risk. They are credited with playing a major role in Denmark’s rise to become the world’s leading turbine manufacturer. Eventually, technology standards should be established at the international level.66 Standards and planning requirements can also reduce opposition to renewables if they address other potential issues of concern, such as noise and visual or environmental impacts. Siting or planning laws can be used to set aside specific locations for development or to restrict areas at higher risk of environmental damage or injury to birds, for example. Both Germany and Denmark have required municipalities to reserve specific areas for wind turbines and have set restrictions on proximity to buildings and lakes, among other things. These policies have been extremely successful, reducing uncertainty about if and where turbines can be sited and expediting the planning process. The United Kingdom offers the best example of how the lack of planning regulations can paralyze an industr y. Despite having the best wind resources in Europe, the nation added little wind capacity under its renewables obligation regulations, in great part because a lack of planning regulations virtually halted the process for obtaining planning and environmental permits.67 Perhaps the most important step governments can take to advance renewables is to make a comprehensive change in their perspective and approach to energy policy. Governments need to eliminate inappropriate, inconsistent, and inadequate policies that favor conventional fuels and technologies and that fail to recognize the social, environmental, and economic advantages of renewable energy. Fossil fuels and nuclear power have received the lion’s share of government support to date, and continue to get $150–300 billion a year in subsidies worldwide. Most of these subsidies—80–90 percent by some estimates—are found in the developing world, where the price for energy is often set well below the true costs of production and delivery. Even relatively small subsidies in developing countries for kerosene and diesel can discourage the use of renewable energy.68 Every dollar spent subsidizing conventional energy is a dollar not invested in clean, secure renewable energy. Mature technologies and fuels should not require subsidization, and every dollar spent on conventional energy is a dollar not invested in clean, secure renewable energy. These subsidies should either be eliminated or shifted to wind, solar PVs, and other renewable technologies. Pricing structures must account for the significant external costs of conventional energy and the advantages of renewable energy, as Germany has begun to do through the Renewable Energy Law and other countries are doing with energy or carbon taxes. As the single largest consumers of energy in most, if not all, countries, governments should purchase ever-larger shares of energy from renewables and thereby set an example, increase public awareness, reduce perceived 105 State of the World 2003 CHARTING A NEW ENERGY FUTURE risks associated with renewable technologies, and reduce costs through economies of scale. At the international level, the Global Environment Facility has allocated $650 million to renewable energy projects in developing countries since 1992. However, this is but a small fraction of global investments in carbonintensive energy projects through international financial institutions like the World Bank and taxpayer-funded export credit agencies. According to one study, between 1992 and 1998, the World Bank Group put 100 times more money into fossil fuels than it did in renewables. Even a small shift in resources would have a tremendous impact on renewables industries and markets, although more than a small shift is needed.69 The United States is the only country to have seen a decline in total wind generating capacity over the last decade. Policies enacted to advance renewable energy can slow the transition if they are not well formulated or are inconsistent, piecemeal, or unsustained. For example, because early investment credits in California were short-lived and extensions were often uncertain, many equipment manufacturers could not begin mass production for fear that credits would end too soon. When incentives expired, interest waned and the industries and markets died with them. In the case of wind power, the impact was felt as far away as Denmark, which relied on selling its turbines in California. The U.S. Production Tax Credit for wind energy has been allowed to expire several times, only to be extended months later. As a result, the credit has stimulated wind capacity growth but has created cycles of boom and bust in the market.70 This on-and-off approach to renewables has caused significant uncertainties, bank106 ruptcies, and other problems and has made the development of a strong industry in the United States a challenge, at best. Indeed, the United States is the only country to have seen a decline in total wind generating capacity over the last decade. In India, uncoordinated, inconsistent state policies and bottlenecks imposed by state electricity boards have acted as barriers to renewables development. Even in Denmark, years of successful wind energy growth ended in 1999 when the government changed course, and uncertainty overtook years of investor confidence. The future of some planned offshore wind farms is now uncertain, as is Denmark’s target to produce half its electricity with wind by 2030.71 Consistent policy environments are necessary for the health of all industries. Consistency is critical for ensuring stability in the market, enabling the development of a domestic manufacturing industry, reducing the risk of investing in a technology, and making it easier to obtain financing. It is also cheaper. Government commitment to develop renewable energy markets and industries must be strong and long-term (see Box 5–6), just as it has been with fossil fuels and nuclear power.72 Unlocking Our Energy Future Renewable energy has come of age. After more than a decade of double-digit growth, renewable energy is a multibillion-dollar global business. Wind power is leading the way in many nations, generating more than 20 percent of the electricity needs in some regions and countries, and is cost-competitive with many conventional energy technologies. Solar cells are already the most affordable option for getting modern energy services to hundreds of millions of people in developing countries. Renewable energy can State of the World 2003 CHARTING A NEW ENERGY FUTURE BOX 5–6. FORGING A NEW ENERGY FUTURE • Enact renewable energy policies that are consistent, long-term, and flexible, with enough lead time to allow industries and markets to adjust • Emphasize renewable energy market creation. • Provide access to the electric grid and standardized payments that cover the costs of generation with policies similar to the fair access and standard pricing laws used in much of Europe. • Provide financing assistance to reduce up-front costs through long-term, low-interest loans, through production payments for more advanced technologies, and through investment rebates for more expensive technologies such as solar PV, with gradual phaseout. • Disseminate information regarding resource availability, the benefits and potential of renewable energy, capacity and generation statistics, government incentives, and policy successes and failures on local, national, and international levels. • Encourage individual and cooperative ownership of renewable energy projects, and ensure that all stakeholders are involved in the decisionmaking process. • Establish standards for performance, safety, and siting. • Incorporate all costs into the price of energy, and shift government subsidies and purchases from conventional to renewable energies. generate electricity, can heat and cool space, can do mechanical work such as water pumping, and can produce fuels—in other words, everything that conventional energy does.73 Renewable technologies are now attracting the funds of venture capitalists and multinational corporations alike. The major oil companies BP and Royal Dutch/Shell have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in renewable energy development. While this is a fraction of what they devote to oil and gas, it is a move in the right direction. BP currently has 20 percent of the global market share for solar cells and plans to enlarge its solar business to $1 billion by 2007, while Shell intends to become an industry leader in offshore wind energy. Commitments from major firms to invest in renewable energy over the next few years total at least $10–15 billion, and clean energy investment worldwide is expected to increase more than eightfold between 2001 and 2010, to over $80 billion annually.74 As a result of such investments, the use of renewable energy is expanding rapidly. If current growth rates continue, economies of scale and additional private investments in R&D and manufacturing capability will achieve further dramatic cost reductions, making renewable energy even more affordable in both North and South. A classic example of the impacts of scale economies and learning is Ford’s Model T car, which declined in price by two thirds between 1909 and 1923 as production increased from 34,000 to 2.7 million. A simple calculation shows that if wind power continues to grow at the pace of the past decade, it will exceed 2.6 million MW by 2020. At that level, wind energy alone would provide nearly three times as much electricity as nuclear power does today.75 Whether growth continues at this level 107 State of the World 2003 CHARTING A NEW ENERGY FUTURE will hinge largely on policy decisions by governments around the world. The growth of the past decade has occurred because of substantial policy changes in a half-dozen countries, and those nations alone are not large enough to sustain the needed growth at the global level. But recent developments suggest that political support for renewables is rising around the world. The European Union has a goal of having renewables generate 22 percent of Europe’s electricity by 2010. One example is Europe, where the wind power industry is now centered. Tony Blair, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, which so far has been a European straggler on renewables, calls his nation’s investment in renewable energy technology “a major downpayment in our future” that will “open up huge commercial opportunities.” And the European Union has adopted the goal of having renewables generate 22 percent of Europe’s electricity by 2010. Developing countries such as China and India have recently strengthened their renewable energy policies, and Brazil is leading the way in Latin America with a comprehensive and ambitious renewable energy law. Even in the United States, despite an oil-oriented White House, nearly half the members of Congress have joined the Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Caucus. Although this political support has not yet translated into the needed federal legislation, many states— including Arizona, California, Nevada, and Texas—have enacted pioneering laws in recent years.76 Despite the substantial strides being made in technology, investment, and policy, renewables continue to face a “credibility gap.” Many people remain unconvinced that renew108 able energy could one day be harnessed on a scale that would meet most of the world’s energy needs. Renewable energy sources appear too ephemeral and sparsely distributed to provide the energy required by a modern post-industrial economy. But those assumptions are outdated. In the words of Paul Appleby of BP’s solar division, “the natural flows of energy are so large relative to human needs for energy services that renewable energy sources have the technical potential to meet those needs indefinitely.”77 The Group of Eight Renewable Energy Task Force projects that in the next decade up to a billion people could be served with renewable energy. BP and Shell have predicted that renewable sources could account for 50 percent of world energy production by 2050, and David Jones of Shell has forecast that renewables could emulate the rise of oil a century ago, when it surpassed coal and wood as the primary source of fuel.78 Not only is solar energy alone sufficiently abundant to meet all of today’s energy needs thousands of times over, harnessing it is not particularly land- or resource-intensive. All U.S. electricity could be provided by wind turbines in just three states—Kansas, North Dakota, and South Dakota—or with solar energy on a plot of land 100 miles square in Nevada. Farming under the wind turbines could continue as before, while farmers enjoyed the supplementary revenues from spinning wind into electricity. In cities around the world, much of the local power needs could be met by covering existing roofs with solar cells—requiring no land at all. Additional energy will be provided by wind and ocean energy installations located several kilometers offshore, where the energy flows are abundant.79 The other credibility gap that must be filled is how to provide renewable energy when and where it is needed—how do you State of the World 2003 CHARTING A NEW ENERGY FUTURE get wind or sunshine into a gas tank, for example, and on a still, dark night? That question, which has stumped generations of engineers, has now been answered by automobile and energy companies around the world. Hydrogen will be the fuel of choice— to be produced from renewable energy, stored underground, and carried to our cities and factories by pipeline. Major automobile manufacturers around the world are developing hydrogen fuel cell–powered cars that will emit only water from their tailpipes. DaimlerChrysler, BMW, General Motors, and Nissan plan to sell their first such cars in 2003, and in 2002 Toyota and Honda raced to see who would be first to put a fuel cell car on the road. Full commercialization of fuel cell cars is expected as soon as 2010.80 In early 2001, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its most recent report, confirming that in order to stabilize the world’s climate, “eventually CO2 emissions would need to decline to a very small fraction of current emissions”—meaning close to zero. If the world is to achieve this—which it must—countries must begin today, not tomorrow, to make the transition to a renewable, sustainable energy future.81 We still have a long way to go to achieve these visions. Today most of the world is locked into a carbon-based energy system that is neither better nor necessarily cheaper than renewable energy—it is the product of past policies and investment decisions. Breaking the lock will not be easy. But Germany and other countries are proving that change is indeed possible. The key is ambitious, forward-looking, consistent government policies that drive demand for renewable energy and create a self-reinforcing market. 109 Chapter 6 Scrapping Mining Dependence Payal Sampat In 1886, in the dry and dusty high veldt of South Africa, a man named George Harrison stumbled across an outcrop of gold. This accidental discovery had significant consequences. The remote farming region was soon transformed into a hive of activity: financiers and mining companies arrived from London and Amsterdam, as did tens of thousands of workers from other parts of southern Africa. The city of Johannesburg grew out of this gold rush. The deposit that lies below the metropolitan area has since produced, by some estimates, a third of all the gold ever mined.1 Although Harrison chanced upon nuggets of the metal on the soil’s surface, most of Johannesburg’s gold lies several kilometers underground, scattered through a giant “reef” of rock and earth. To get to this reef, miners must burrow very deep, extracting several tons of rock and soil in order to produce just a few ounces of the yellow metal. The material is then treated with cyanide in order to separate out the specks of gold from the dirt. More than a century of such digging 110 has completely transformed the landscape around Johannesburg. Pale yellow mountains of waste ore and rock rise above the flat city, towering over its poor, predominantly black neighborhoods. Some of these heaps span several hundred hectares each and are 45 meters high. Winds carry dust containing cyanide and heavy metals from these heaps into nearby homes and schools.2 During the first hundred years after Harrison’s discovery, South Africa’s mining industry flourished using a series of practices that were damaging to both the environment and the mine workers. The mines paid low wages, operated under dangerous working conditions, and employed an almost exclusively black work force—mainly workers brought in from Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, and other neighboring nations. Once the apartheid policies that enabled these practices were ended in the late 1980s, the mines began to lose some of their apparent luster. Less than a decade later, world prices for gold and other metals took a nosedive. Companies began to close down mines where State of the World 2003 SCRAPPING MINING DEPENDENCE Table 6–1. Mining in the Global Economy, operating costs far exceeded returns Late 1990s and to downsize the work force. In the span of just a decade, mining Global Indicator Mining’s Share Value companies laid off half of all mine (percent) 3 workers—nearly 400,000 people. Johannesburg’s history is unique, Gross world product 0.9 $361 billion 1 of course, but many of its experiEmployment 0.5 13 million workers 2 ences as a mining-dependent region Energy use 7–10 4,900–6,600 are not. Mining has left a lasting terawatt hours mark on people and landscapes Sulfur dioxide emissions 13 142 million tons 3 around the world. Each year mining activities take more materials out of Frontier forests threatened 39 5.3 million square kilometers4 the earth than the world’s rivers move. A single mine in Papua New 1 Based on gross domestic product data for 1998, in current Guinea, the Ok Tedi, generates an U.S. dollars. Includes some extraction of oil and natural gas. 2 astounding 200,000 tons of waste a Employment in nonfuel minerals and metals mining, processday on average—more than all the ing, and basic manufacturing in the formal sector. 3Data for 1995. 4 Refers to undeveloped tracts of forest. 1997 estimate; includes cities in Japan, Australia, and Canada some oil and gas extraction. combined. Mines have uprooted SOURCE: See endnote 5. tens of thousands of people from their homelands and have exposed many more to toxic chemicals and polluore from the earth in order to improve the tion. And mining is the world’s most deadly quality of our lives? Thankfully, it is not. The occupation: on average, 40 mine workers billions of tons of material already mined and are killed on the job each day, and many circulating in cities and factories or lying in more are injured.4 landfills can serve the same functions as underIf an accountant were to weigh the costs ground ores, with far fewer ecological costs. and benefits of extracting minerals from the Through improved design of cities, transport, earth and then processing and refining them, homes, and products, societies can find ways the balance sheet would reveal this: an industo use the existing stock of minerals far more try that consumes close to 10 percent of efficiently—and to use smaller amounts of world energy, spews almost half of all toxic materials overall—dramatically reducing the need to mine underground ores.6 emissions from industry in some countries, and threatens nearly 40 percent of the world’s undeveloped tracts of forest—while generatMinerals Inventory ing only a small share of jobs and economic output. (See Table 6–1.) 5 The term “minerals” refers to a variety of Clearly, minerals themselves have brought materials found in the earth. It includes metbenefits to those who have had access to them. als such as iron, copper, and gold; industrial People use minerals extensively in their daily minerals, like lime and gypsum; construction lives—in utensils used to cook dinner, in bicymaterials such as sand and stone; and fuels, cles or trains or cars taken to get to work, and such as coal and uranium. The first three catin pipes or pitchers that carry water to homes. egories of minerals are the primary focus of But is it necessary to extract mountains of this chapter.7 111 State of the World 2003 SCRAPPING MINING DEPENDENCE People have extracted minerals Million Tons 10,000 from the earth since ancient times. Source: USGS, UN Babylonians, Assyrians, and Byzan8,000 tines mined for copper and lead thousands of years ago in what is 6,000 today southern Jordan, for example. Metals Since the Industrial Revolution, 4,000 Construction and Industrial Minerals however, minerals have been extracted and used in much larger 2,000 quantities. In recent times, this trend has accelerated greatly: in 0 1999, some 9.6 billion tons of mar1970 1985 1975 1995 2000 1990 1980 ketable minerals were dug out of Figure 6–1. Production of Non-fuel Minerals the earth, nearly twice as much as in and Metals, 1970–99 1970. (See Figure 6–1.) This figure accounts for minerals that finally reach markets, but does not include the wastes 2001 were valued at $125 billion—and about generated in producing these minerals—the $21 billion of this was gold.10 unused portion of the ore (the rock or earth After metal ores are extracted from the that contains minerals), or the earth moved earth, the material has to go through several to reach the ore, which is known as overstages in order to produce usable metal. These burden. If these categories were included in refining and smelting processes vary, dependthe total amount of materials mined each ing on the type of metal. The ore is crushed year, the figure would be considerably larger.8 and ground, and then the metal is separated By weight, most of the minerals extracted out through different kinds of processes: gold are used for construction, such as stone, ore is treated with chemicals, for instance, sand, and gravel. Although metals are mined while aluminum is separated out by exposing in smaller quantities, they are more valuable the processed ore to an extremely powerful per unit of weight. Iron is by far the most electric current. Construction materials are typically mined mined metallic ore. Much of this iron ore is relatively close to where they are to be used. used to make steel—some 845 million tons But more valuable minerals have historically of raw steel were produced in 2000. About traveled quite long distances—gold was 135 million tons of bauxite ore were mined shipped from the Americas to Europe in the that same year, which produced some 24 sixteenth century, for example. With the availmillion tons of aluminum—a lightweight metal used in cars, aircraft, and beverage ability of cheap energy and improved transcans. And about 15 million tons of refined portation networks in the twentieth century, copper were produced in 2000, much of some metal ores travel thousands of miles which was used in electrical equipment, just to be refined and processed. For instance, cables, and construction.9 some copper that is mined in Chile gets smelted in Europe—and may end up in radiAlthough gold is produced in much tinier ators of cars made in Japan and driven in quantities—less than 2,500 tons a year—it California.11 brings in a disproportionate share of the revenue from metals mining. Metals mined in Minerals are found all over the world— 112 State of the World 2003 SCRAPPING MINING DEPENDENCE Pacific islands, Andean mountains, North American deserts, and African rainforest. Some of the world’s largest countries are also the major producers and consumers of minerals. (See Table 6–2.) China, for instance, produces 22 percent of the world’s iron ore, 29 percent of the silicon, and 39 percent of the tin. Australian mines produce nearly 40 percent of all bauxite, 27 percent of diamonds, and almost a quarter of all lead. About 14 percent of all gold and a quarter of all phosphate are mined in the United States.12 Some ores are mined in just one or only a few regions. Most of the world’s bauxite, for instance, comes from Australia, Guinea, Brazil, or Jamaica. South Africa produces 44 percent of the world’s chromium, which is used in making stainless steel, and more than half of the world’s platinum. Chilean mines produce more than a third of the world’s copper.13 Mineral consumption is also most concentrated in a few parts of the world. The United States, Canada, Australia, Japan, and Western Europe, with 15 percent of the world’s population, together consume most of the metals produced each year: about 61 percent of all aluminum, 60 percent of lead, 59 percent of copper, and 49 percent of steel. On a per capita basis, the different levels of consumption are especially marked: the average American uses 22 kilograms of aluminum a year, the average Indian uses 2 kilograms, and the average African uses just 0.7 kilograms.14 How are these billions of tons of minerals used? Most go into expanding the built-up environment: constructing roads, railways, bridges, factories, or residences. In addition to needing sand and gravel to make concrete, construction activities account for 34 percent of the use of steel, 30 percent of copper, 17 percent of lead, and 19 percent of the aluminum consumed in industrial countries. The transportation sector—including vehicle Table 6–2. Major Mineral Producing Countries, Selected Minerals, 2001 Mineral Countries Share of World Production (percent) Bauxite Australia Guinea Brazil 39 11 10 Copper Chile United States Indonesia 35 10 8 Diamond Australia Dem. Rep. of Congo Russia 27 25 21 Gold South Africa United States Australia 16 14 11 Iron ore China Brazil Australia 22 20 16 Lead Australia China United States 24 19 14 Mercury Spain Kyrgyz Republic Algeria 36 18 16 Nickel Russia Australia Canada 21 15 15 Platinum group South Africa Russia United States 53 35 5 Silicon China Russia Norway 29 14 11 Tin China Indonesia Peru 39 21 16 SOURCE: U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2001 (Reston,VA: 2001). fleets—uses about 70 percent of lead produced each year, 37 percent of steel, 33 percent of aluminum, and 27 percent of copper.15 113 State of the World 2003 SCRAPPING MINING DEPENDENCE In industrial nations, the amount of Dollars 175 material being added to the built-up (1990 dollars) environment each year has continued 150 to grow, even though most of these countries have already put in place 125 much of the urban infrastructure and transportation networks that consume 100 large amounts of materials. Every year, 75 the United States adds another 2 billion tons of material to interstate highSource: World Bank 50 way systems, railroads, factories, and 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 buildings that have been in place for 16 decades. Figure 6–2. Metals and Minerals Price Index, 1960–2001 In addition to the minerals newly extracted from the earth each year, factories and builders get some of their raw the world consumes enormous volumes of materials from recycled or secondary sources. minerals each year, quarrying and extracting About half of the world’s lead comes from minerals generates less than 1 percent of recycled supplies, as does a third of aluminum, global economic product. The global mining steel, and gold. But for some metals, the industry includes several large multinational recycling rate is far lower and appears to be corporations (such as Anglo American, Rio falling: for instance, just 13 percent of copTinto, and BHP Billiton), state-owned comper is from recycled sources, down from 20 panies such as Chile’s Codelco and several in percent in 1980. Merely 4 percent of the India, and smaller mining companies that are world’s zinc is obtained from recycled known as “juniors.” In addition, some 13 sources.17 million artisanal or small-scale miners work over productive seams of metal or precious It is far less energy-intensive to produce stones alone or in cooperatives. Most of these metals from secondary sources than from miners are in the developing world, con“virgin” or newly mined ores. Yet recycling’s verging near gold deposits in the Brazilian potential is poorly realized. In many parts of Amazon and Ghana, in diamond-rich areas in the world, governments heavily subsidize West Africa, and near columbite-tantalite the extraction of virgin materials by offering (coltan) ores in the Democratic Republic of mining firms tax write-offs and inexpensive the Congo.19 access to land and by subsidizing diesel and other fuels—making it more expensive to The Johannesburg gold reef is an excepproduce minerals from recycled sources than tionally rich lode of metal that has been to dig up new supplies from underground. worked for over a century. But firms today Although minerals are nonrenewable and develop some mineral deposits with life spans are mined in greater quantities each year, estimated in decades, or even years—and are prices for virgin minerals have been in steady always in search of new, untapped deposits of decline since the oil crisis in the early 1970s. minerals. Multinational mining companies (See Figure 6–2.)18 have increasingly focused their quest in the The minerals sector is a relatively small developing world, where mines can be worked more cheaply as labor costs are lower and player in the global economy. Even though 114 State of the World 2003 SCRAPPING MINING DEPENDENCE environmental regulations are typically not as strict as in Australia, Western Europe, or North America. In 2001, mining companies spent $566 million exploring for nonferrous metals deposits in Latin America—almost 30 percent of the $2 billion they spent overall— and another $272 million in Africa. Almost two thirds of the exploration expenditure in 1997 was spent in search of gold deposits, but this share fell to about 40 percent in 2001. Since global metals prices took a downturn in the late 1990s, mining companies have invested much less in their quest for new mineral lodes. Total exploration spending fell by half between 1997 and 2001.20 Ecosystems, People, and Mines The Lorentz National Park in the Indonesian province of West Papua, which is the western half of the island of New Guinea, is one of the world’s most biologically diverse and least explored places. At 2.5 million hectares— about the size of Vermont in the United States—it is the largest protected area in Southeast Asia. It is a naturalist’s dream come true. In the span of about 125 kilometers, the park covers a dramatic range of ecosystems: mangrove swamps at sea level, highland cloud forest, and snow-peaked mountains. Its geographic isolation and the sweeping changes in elevation and climate have made it home to unique plant, amphibian, and insect species; visiting biologists recently discovered a new type of tree kangaroo.21 But the area has more than just biological wealth. Lorentz lies next to what is considered the world’s richest lode of copper and gold ore, valued at about $50 billion. The U.S. mining company Freeport McMoRan first dug open the deposit in 1973, and has expanded its foothold ever since. The company now dumps 70 million tons of waste each year into the nearby Ajkwa River, and by the time it closes in 30 years, it will have excavated a 230-square-kilometer hole in the forest that is visible from outer space. The region’s population has increased from 6,000 to 70,000 in the last 30 years—most of these are immigrant workers—and the area now boasts an 18-hole golf course for mining executives.22 Lorentz is one of many world biological treasures that are seriously endangered by mining. Much new mining development is taking place in or near ecologically fragile regions around the world—including World Heritage sites such as the Bystrinski National Reserve in Russia and the Sierra Imataca Reserve in Venezuela. By one estimate, mining projects threaten nearly 40 percent of the world’s large, untouched forests. These include a titanium mine being developed in a Madagascar forest that is inhabited by rare lemurs, birds, and indigenous plant species; gold exploration in Peru’s Andean cloud forests; and columbite-tantalite mining in the Okapi Reserve in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, home to the endangered lowland gorilla. Also in the works is a nickel and cobalt mine on Gag Island, off the coast of Papua New Guinea. The reefs off the island are inhabited by an astounding variety of coral, fish, and mollusks.23 The environmental impact of mines extends beyond the threats to habitat. The mining industry is one of the planet’s leading polluters. (See Table 6–3.) Smelting metals contributes some 19 million tons of acidrain-causing sulfur dioxide to the atmosphere annually—about 13 percent of global emissions. In the United States, processing minerals contributes almost half of all reported toxic emissions from industry, sending 1.5 million tons of pollutants into the air and water each year.24 Extracting, processing, and refining minerals is extremely energy-intensive. Between 115 State of the World 2003 SCRAPPING MINING DEPENDENCE Table 6–3. Selected Examples of Mining’s Environmental Toll Impact Example Details Biodiversity loss Okapi Reserve and Kahuzi-Biega National Park, Democratic Republic of the Congo Mining for coltan—used to make capacitors for cell phones and other electronics—has resulted in an 80–90 percent decline in the population of the eastern lowland gorilla in the Reserve. Only 3,000 gorillas remain. Water pollution Ok Tedi, Papua New Guinea On average, 200,000 tons of contaminated tailings and waste rock dumped each day into Ok Tedi River, which feeds into the Fly River.This has silted up the two rivers to four or five times more than normal, flooding nearby villages and killing off plant life in a 2,000-square-kilometer area near the river basin. Air pollution Norilsk nickel smelter, Russia The smelter is the country’s largest source of sulfur dioxide and other air pollutants, which have destroyed an estimated 3,500 square kilometers of forest and harmed the health of local residents. Water use Gold mines in northeastern Nevada Mines in the Nevadan desert pumped out more than 2.2 trillion liters of groundwater between 1986 and 2000—as much water as New York City uses each year. SOURCE: See endnote 24. 7 and 10 percent of all oil, gas, coal, and hydropower energy produced globally each year is used to extract and process minerals. (This figure does not include the energy used to ship ores and metals around the world.) Mining and processing just three materials— aluminum, copper, and steel—consumes an astounding 7.2 percent of world energy. This is more than the entire Latin American region uses each year.25 A sizable share of the energy used in extracting and refining minerals comes from fossil fuels such as oil and coal, whose burning emits the carbon that is implicated in global climate change. In the United States, half of the electricity used to smelt aluminum comes from coal-burning power plants, for instance. But mining’s role in global climate change does not end with its fossil fuel use. Producing cement from limestone releases an additional 5 percent of annual carbon emissions to the atmosphere each year. The aluminum smelting process releases about 2 116 tons of carbon dioxide for each ton of primary aluminum produced, and another 3 tons of perfluorocarbons, or PFCs—which are very rare gases not emitted through any other industrial activity. PFCs are extremely potent greenhouse gases: a ton of PFCs is equivalent to the greenhouse potential of 6,500–9,200 tons of carbon. In 1997, PFC emissions from aluminum smelters in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States were equivalent to about 19 million tons of carbon— although at least this is 50 percent less than their emissions in 1990, thanks to improvements in smelter efficiencies.26 In the last century, lower energy costs and the development of new mining technologies have made it possible to transform landscapes completely. Earth-moving equipment is used to literally move mountains in order to get to a mineral deposit. These technological advancements have led to two trends: the extraction of minerals from lower-grade State of the World 2003 SCRAPPING MINING DEPENDENCE ores—ores that contain very small amounts of mineral—and the development of surface mines instead of underground ones. Today, about two thirds of metals are extracted from surface mines. These “open-pit” mines use more diesel fuel and generate a lot more waste than the subterranean kind. On average, open-pit mines produce 8–10 times more waste than underground mines do.27 The amount of wastes generated by mines is staggering: every year, Canadian mines generate more than a billion tons—60 times larger than the amount of trash Canadian cities discard. To transport these wastes, some mines now use a kind of giant dump truck that can move 360 tons of material—each behemoth tire on this truck weighs 4.5 tons and stands almost 5 meters feet high.28 In 2000, mines around the world extracted some 900 million tons of metal—and left behind some 6 billion tons of waste ore. This figure does not include the overburden earth moved to reach the ores. Much of this waste came from the production of just iron ore, copper, and gold. (See Table 6–4.) For every usable ton of copper, 110 tons of waste rock and ore are discarded, and another 200 tons of overburden earth are moved. For gold, the ratio is more staggering: about 300,000 tons of wastes are generated for every ton of marketable gold—which translates into roughly 3 tons of wastes per gold wedding ring. Much of this waste is contaminated with cyanide and other chemicals used to separate the metal from ore.29 The amount of waste generated by mines has increased as ore grades have declined for a number of metals. As the more easily accessible and rich veins of metal have been dug out, miners have turned to less abundant sources—using more energy and chemicals to extract the same amount of metal while generating more wastes. In 1906, U.S. copper ores yielded on average 2.5 grams of metal for Table 6–4.Wastes Produced by Mining Selected Metals, 2000 Waste Produced Metal Share of Metal Ore That is Produced Usable Metal (million tons) (million tons) (percent) Iron Ore Copper Gold Lead Aluminum SOURCE: See 2,113 1,648 745 260 104 845 15 0.0025 7 24 40 0.91 0.00033 2.5 19 endnote 29. every 100 grams of ore. In 2000, U.S. miners extracted copper from ore with an average grade of 0.44 grams of metal per 100 grams of ore, meaning that five times more waste is now generated per gram of marketable metal.30 Chemical innovations have also contributed to the dual trends in low grading and surface mines. In the late 1800s, U.S. chemists patented cyanide heap-leaching as a method of separating gold from ore. Today, gold mines everywhere from South Africa to Nevada use this technique. Cyanide is mixed with water and then is poured or sprayed over heaps of crushed ore in order to dissolve bits of gold. Once the usable gold is removed, the stacks of crushed ore—known as tailings—are treated to reduce cyanide concentrations, although the chemical is never entirely diluted. When gold prices shot up in the early 1980s, this method gained new popularity as miners rushed to extract gold from deposits containing even tiny amounts of the metal. Between 1983 and 1999, U.S. consumption of crystalline sodium cyanide more than tripled, reaching 130 million kilograms—about 90 percent of which was used in gold mining. A teaspoon containing a 2 percent cyanide solution can kill an adult.31 Where do these chemical-laced wastes end 117 State of the World 2003 SCRAPPING MINING DEPENDENCE up? They are piled into heaps, walled into constructed holding areas (called dams), and in some parts of the world simply dumped into rivers, streams, or oceans. (Tailings dams are typically built by stacking piles of wastes above ground or in freshwater ponds.) Today only three mines in the world—all of them on the Pacific island of New Guinea—officially use rivers to dump tailings. Even so, mine wastes elsewhere have spilled out of waste sites and poisoned drinking water supplies and aquatic habitat. In the U.S. West, mining has contaminated an estimated 26,000 kilometers of streams and rivers.32 There is no reliable way to dispose of billions of tons of materials discreetly. Catastrophic spills of mine wastes in recent years have resulted in enormous fish kills, soil and water pollution, and damage to human health. In 2000, for instance, a tailings dam split open at the Baia Mare mine in Romania. This accident sent some 100,000 tons of wastewater and 20,000 tons of sludge contaminated with cyanide, copper, and heavy metals into the Tisza River, and eventually into the Danube—destroying 1,240 tons of fish and polluting the drinking water supplies of 2.5 million people. That same year major accidents took place at mines in Gallivare (Sweden), Guangxi (China), Cajamarca (Peru), Tolukuma (Papua New Guinea), Sichuan (China), and Borsa (Romania). The accident at a copper mine in Guangxi killed 29 people and destroyed more than 100 homes. Of the hundreds of mining-related environmental incidents since 1975, about 75 percent have involved tailings dam ruptures. According to the U.N. Environment Programme, there are 3,500 tailings storage facilities in active use around the world and several thousand others that are now closed, all of which pose potential risks.33 Mining’s effects frequently persist long after an operation is closed. Acid drainage is 118 an especially long-lived problem. This happens when a mining operation excavates rock that contains sulfide minerals. When these materials are exposed to oxygen and water, they react to form sulfuric acid. This acid will continue to form, and to drain out of the rock, as long as the rock is exposed to air and water and the sulfides have not been depleted—a process that can take hundreds or thousands of years. The Iron Mountain mine in northern California, for instance, has been closed since 1963 but continues to drain sulfuric acid, along with heavy metals such as cadmium and zinc, into the Sacramento River. The river’s bright orange water is completely devoid of life, and has a pH of minus 3—which is 10,000 times more acidic than battery acid. Experts report that the mine may continue to leach acid for another 3,000 years.34 Mines have not only transformed landscapes, but have also dramatically altered the lives of local people who live near mineral deposits. (See Table 6–5.) Hundreds of thousands of people have been uprooted in order to make way for mine projects. Many others have had to forsake traditional occupations and endure the effects of living beside a mine that poisons their water supplies or near a smelter that pollutes the air they breathe. At the same time, mines have brought jobs, roads, and electricity to poor regions. Men with little other choice for work and communities living in extreme poverty have had to make the Faustian tradeoff—typically not out of their own choice: incur increased risks of lung disease and other health problems in exchange for jobs and income.35 Each year 14,000 mine workers are killed at accidents on the job, and many more are exposed to chemicals or particulates that increase their risks of respiratory disorders and certain kinds of cancers. There have been significant improvements in mine safety in State of the World 2003 SCRAPPING MINING DEPENDENCE Table 6–5. Selected Examples of Mining’s Impact on Local Communities Impact Example Details Mining on indigenous lands Zortman–Landusky mine, Montana, United States Mining for gold has destroyed Spirit Mountain, a sacred site for the Assiniboine and Gros Ventre tribes.The mine was abandoned by the Pegasus Gold company in 1998, when it went bankrupt, leaving the tribes a toxic legacy of cyanide waste and acid drainage. Loss of traditional occupations Tambo Grande, Peru Farmers have opposed a proposed Canadian gold mine, complaining that it will drain water supplies, take over farmland, and contaminate their soils. In a referendum in June 2002, 94 percent of the area’s residents voted against the proposed mine. Human rights abuses Monywa Copper Mine, The Burmese military government has partnered with the CanaMyanmar (formerly dian firm Ivanhoe to develop the copper mine and build railways, Burma) dams, and other infrastructure. Nearly a million laborers have been forced to work on the project. Health hazards Metals refineries, Torréon, Mexico SOURCE: See Heavy metals emissions from lead, silver, and bismuth refineries have resulted in lead poisoning in children, which can cause permanent brain damage. endnote 35. the last few decades, but mining is still the world’s most hazardous occupation. According to the International Labour Organization, the sector employs less than 1 percent of all workers but is responsible for 5 percent of all worker deaths on the job.36 Prostitution and drug use are serious problems at mining camps where migrant workers live, which has led to a high incidence of sexually transmitted diseases, including HIV/AIDS. In South Africa, between 20 and 30 percent of workers at gold mines are HIV-positive (although this is not significantly higher than the average infection rate for adults there).37 Mine workers in some countries, including Colombia, China, Myanmar, and Russia, are still prevented from forming independent trade unions for collective bargaining. Union organizers there face serious threats: at the La Loma mine in Colombia, for example, three union leaders were murdered in 2001 because of their efforts to organize workers.38 Indigenous peoples have been especially hard hit by mining projects. By one estimate, as much as 50 percent of the gold produced between 1995 and 2015 will come from indigenous peoples’ lands, in places as diverse as the Kyrgyz Republic and Nevada. The impacts of this intrusion into native lands can be diverse, affecting autonomy, traditional lifestyles, health, occupations, and even physical safety. For instance, the Indonesian Human Rights Commission has confirmed that the Indonesian army is responsible for rapes and the continued use of armed force against Amungme and Ndunga villagers near Freeport McMoRan’s Grasberg mine on West Papua. In Australia, the Mirrar—an aboriginal people—have contested a huge uranium mine that is being developed on their traditional lands and sacred sites. This area, the Kakadu Reserve, was declared a World Heritage site in 1998. And in French Guiana, the Wayana people, who live downstream from gold mining operations, suffer from mercury poisoning—their hair sample tests showed mercury levels two 119 State of the World 2003 SCRAPPING MINING DEPENDENCE to three times higher than World Health Organization limits—which can lead to neurological and behavioral problems, especially in children.39 Tailing the Money More than 200 years ago, Adam Smith observed in The Wealth of Nations: “Of all those expensive and uncertain projects which bring bankruptcy upon the greater part of the people that engage in them, there is none perhaps more perfectly ruinous than the search after new silver and gold mines.” In contrast, the industry’s proponents have held that mining can serve as a powerful and necessary engine of economic development. They argue that poor countries that put up with the ecological and social costs of mining will benefit over the long term because of the income and jobs that mining can help generate. Results on the ground, however, do not bear out these claims.40 Mineral dependence has been shown to slow and even reduce economic growth in developing countries—a phenomenon economists have dubbed “the resource curse.” Harvard economists Jeffrey Sachs and Andrew Warner studied 95 developing countries that had high ratios of natural resource exports relative to gross domestic product (GDP) for the period between 1970 and 1990. They found that the higher the dependence on natural resource exports, the slower the growth rates per capita. Economist Richard Auty of the University of Lancaster in the United Kingdom looked at economic growth in 85 countries between 1970 and 1993 and found that in this period small countries that were rich in hard minerals (such as copper, bauxite, and tin) actually had negative GDP growth rates, averaging –0.2 percent a year.41 This inverse relationship between mineral wealth and economic affluence has held 120 true even in wealthy countries that mine. Between 1980 and 2000, for example, mining-dependent counties in the United States grew at half the rate of other counties on average. Thomas M. Power, who heads the Economics Department at the University of Montana, notes that in the United States “the historic mining regions have become synonymous with persistent poverty, not prosperity.” He points to the Appalachian region, with its coal; the Black Hills of South Dakota, which were dug over for gold and silver; and lead mines in the Ozarks, among others. “Persistent poverty” is common to several other historically mined regions around the world: Rio Tinto in Spain, Bihar in India, and Potosí in Bolivia rank among the poorest in their respective countries.42 Ten countries—six of them in Africa— derive more than 30 percent of their export income from trading minerals. (See Table 6–6.) Most of these also number among the world’s most impoverished nations: almost two thirds of Niger’s population lives below the poverty line, for instance, as does nearly half of Peru’s. Several of these mineral-exporting countries are heavily indebted to international lenders. Much of what they earn from minerals and other exports never enters the national economy at all but goes instead to service their huge debts. Mauritania, for instance, spends a quarter of its export earnings repaying interest on its external debt— which is 1.3 times the size of its gross national income.43 Conditions in mining-dependent countries have been steadily declining in the last two decades. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, the proportion of people living on less than $1 a day in developing countries that are mineral exporters rose from 61 percent in 1981–83 to 82 percent in 1997–99.44 State of the World 2003 SCRAPPING MINING DEPENDENCE Table 6–6. Mineral Dependence and Poverty Rates, Selected Countries, 1990s Country Share of Non-Fuel Population Minerals in Value Below Poverty of Total Exports Line 1 Guinea Niger Zambia Jamaica Chile Peru Dem. Rep. of Congo Mauritania Papua New Guinea Togo (percent) (percent) 71 67 66 53 43 40 40 40 35 30 40 63 86 34 21 49 n.a. 57 n.a. 32 1 National Poverty Line. UNCTAD, Handbook of World Mineral Trade Statistics 1994-1999 (New York: 2001);World Bank, World Development Indicators 2001 (Washington, DC: 2001); U.N. Development Programme, Human Development Report 2001 (New York: 2001). SOURCE: Why are mining-dependent countries more likely to be poor and to grow more slowly? Economists have explained the resource curse in different ways. One is that extracting raw materials for export is far less lucrative than processing the materials or manufacturing finished goods. Second, countries that have made mining the centerpiece of their economies have found that laying all their stakes in this one sector has proved an unsafe bet, given the swings and overall downward trend in world mineral prices.45 Other reasons may have to do with the way the resource revenues are distributed. Mineral-rich countries have typically invested little in social services, such as education or health care. Several countries dependent on mining are among the world’s most corrupt; others are beleaguered by conflicts over resources and the resulting political instabil- ity. A study by Transparency International about the extent of corruption in different parts of the world revealed that 26 out of 32 mineral-dependent countries evaluated—some of which are also oil-dependent—had governments that were categorized as corrupt or highly corrupt. Bolivia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Zambia all feature on this list.46 Although countries such as the United States, Canada, and Australia have historically extracted minerals and continue to do so, the industry has not been the primary driver of their economic development. Thomas Power of the University of Montana notes that these three countries “were high-income, advanced nations with stable political and economic institutions when they started to develop their natural resources.” The domestic availability of natural resources provided a competitive advantage for these nations. But as transportation costs have fallen and trade has expanded, a domestic supply of minerals is no longer a prerequisite for economic growth, as it was a century ago. In fact, countries that are resource-poor, such as Japan or South Korea, have grown far more rapidly than many mineral-rich nations.47 By extracting minerals, countries are essentially running down their stocks of nonrenewable resources. Under traditional economic accounting, however, this extraction appears on the credit side of the ledger. By conventional measures, mining in Chile contributed between 7 and 9 percent of the country’s GDP during the first half of the 1990s. In order to arrive at a more ecologically accurate measure of Chile’s income from mining, economists from the University of Chile and Chile’s National Commission for the Environment calculated the long-term losses that nation was incurring by depleting its natural resources. They concluded that traditional accounting methods “overestimated the economic income generated by 121 State of the World 2003 SCRAPPING MINING DEPENDENCE the Chilean mining sector…by 20–40 percent.” The conventional measure is likely to be even more off the mark than this, for the researchers did not factor in environmental or health losses from mining, such as air or water pollution.48 Mining, then, has not proved to be an economic winner in either the short term or the long term. Its frequently short-lived appeal contributed the term “ghost town” to the American lexicon a centur y ago. A rumored gold strike would bring droves of miners into an area, which would be abandoned once the deposit was picked over.49 In many ways, mining economies today are subject to the same boom-and-bust cycles. Their fortune is linked to a number of factors such as global mineral prices, labor and fuel costs, and the productiveness of the lode being mined. Take Papua New Guinea, for example. New Guineans have had to endure the development of four of the world’s most polluting mines, which together provide about 15 percent of the country’s GDP. Three of these—Misima, Ok Tedi, and Porgera—are scheduled for closure between 2004 and 2011, less than 20 years after they were first opened. At that point, 5,000 workers will lose their jobs and the country will be left to deal with the legacy of billions of tons of highly contaminated wastes.50 Mining provides only a thin trickle of jobs: globally, extracting non-fuel minerals employs just 5 million people, or less than 0.2 percent of all workers. (Processing and refining minerals employs about another 8 million.) And in many parts of the world, these jobs are in decline. An International Labour Organization study reveals that 32 percent of mine workers in 25 key mining countries lost their jobs between 1995 and 2000.51 Mine workers are getting laid off as operations close down, cut back on expenses, or invest in labor-saving technological improve122 ments. When minerals prices plummeted in the 1990s, mining companies in Australia, the United States, the Philippines, and elsewhere laid off tens of thousands of workers. (See Table 6–7.) Between 1985 and 2000, Australian mines laid off some 36,000 workers— almost half the work force. Some 40,000 workers lost jobs in Philippine mines between 1985 and 1995, amounting to a 60-percent decline. And in China, 2.4 million mine workers (most of them coal miners) lost their jobs between 1995 and 2000, as minerals prices fell and ores petered out. Job attrition is likely to continue there: another 100 coal and nonfuel mines are scheduled to close in the next few years.52 In countries where labor and civil rights laws are strong, mine workers have been paid well in comparison with the prevailing wage— in large part due to the occupational hazards they face and to the efforts of mine workers’ unions. But contrary to industry claims that mining boosts local economies, Table 6–7. Employment Losses in Mining, Selected Countries, 1985–2000 Employment Employment Change, in 19851 in 20001 1985–2000 (thousands) India South Africa United States Romania Mexico Canada Australia Bolivia Thailand 755 807 344 205 83 78 84 70 58 (thousands) (percent) 600 417 227 77 68 2 53 48 47 17 –21 –48 –34 –62 –18 2 –31 –43 –33 –71 1 Data for some countries may include coal mining. 1999 figure. SOURCE: International Labour Organization, The Evolution of Employment,Working Time and Training in the Mining Industry (Geneva: 2002). 2 State of the World 2003 SCRAPPING MINING DEPENDENCE many mining jobs have not gone to local people near the mine site but to a mobile or migrant work force. Companies have frequently imported labor to operate mines and machinery, as happened in South Africa, where miners were brought in from Lesotho, Mozambique, and Namibia.53 If the benefits of mining are so mixed and minerals prices so low, why are mining operations still expanding? Mining firms have profited from direct and indirect subsidies handed out to them by governments in many parts of the world. For starters, mining firms benefit immensely from the cheap fuel and from the roads and other infrastructure made available to them. In traditional mining countries, several pro-mining laws were originally developed in the nineteenth century in an effort to expand the frontiers of colonial control. In the United States, for instance, an 1872 mining law gives miners the right to explore for and extract minerals for as little as $12 a hectare on public lands—with no royalty payments for minerals removed. This law has generated immense profits for mining interests. Between 1993 and 2001, mining firms hauled $11 billion worth of gold, silver, and other minerals off U.S. federal lands, having paid a fraction of 1 percent of that in fees and permits—leading former U.S. Secretary of the Interior Bruce Babbitt to dub the law “a license to steal.”54 Until 1991, Australia charged no federal income tax to gold miners. Even today, mining firms there pay state governments small amounts of royalties, ranging from 1 to 5 percent. And until 2002, when they were nationalized, most mines in South Africa were privately owned and did not pay royalties or taxes on profits.55 In recent years, other countries have tried to emulate some of these outdated laws. Since 1990, more than 100 countries—almost all in the developing world—have rewritten their laws, and in some cases amended their constitutions, in order to attract foreign investment in mining. Countries such as Ecuador, Argentina, and Tanzania now offer fast-track approval processes, allow 100-percent foreign ownership of mines, charge no taxes for imported equipment, let companies repatriate all profits, and in some cases, such as in Papua New Guinea, provide immunity to companies against compensation claims.56 The final handout of public money comes when mines close down or are abandoned, and governments and taxpayers are stuck with cleanup bills for the mess left behind. U.S. taxpayers have been left with hefty tabs for cleanup after companies have gone bankrupt or just walked away from uneconomical projects. Altogether, it will cost $32–72 billion to try and mop up toxic messes at the half-million abandoned mines across the United States—and most of these costs will be footed by taxpayers. Galactic Resources, Inc., a Canadian mining company, stuck U.S. taxpayers with a $200 million bill when it declared bankruptcy and walked away from the Summitville gold mine in Colorado in 1992. The 3,300-hectare mine had been leaking cyanide into the Alamosa River since its first week in operation and had destroyed 25 kilometers of the river by the time it was closed. When Galactic left, it had mined $130 million worth of metals at Summitville in exchange for $7,000 in mining permits.57 International financial institutions and development agencies have also helped bankroll extractive industries. The Asian Development Bank, the World Bank Group, and assorted export credit agencies have actively promoted mining in developing countries through loans, investment guarantees, and influence over mining and investment laws. Between 1995 and 1999, the World Bank Group spent close to $6 billion 123 State of the World 2003 SCRAPPING MINING DEPENDENCE to fund mining projects around the world, and the Inter-American Development Bank spent another $1 billion. The World Bank’s Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) has underwritten investment to develop mines in sub-Saharan Africa, Peru, Central Asia, and Russia; in 2000, 12 percent of its guarantees supported the mining sector. MIGA has provided more than $100 million in guarantees and equity coverage to developers of the Antamina mine in Peru, which is being built next to the Huascarán National Park, a World Heritage Site. And it reinsured the Omai Gold Mine in Guyana, where a tailings dam collapse in 1995 released 3 billion liters of contaminated effluent into the Essequibo River. The U.S. Overseas Private Investment Corporation has also backed mine projects that have harmed people and the environment, including the Kumtor Mine in the Kyrgyz Republic, where there have been a series of mine accidents involving cyanide spills.58 Digging Out An ecologically inclined accountant studying the balance sheet for mining might be baffled by our situation. It seems absurd that the world continues to obtain minerals in a way that uses so much energy and generates untenable amounts of pollution, and that poor regions are encouraged to yoke their futures to an unstable and short-lived source of income at risk to the health and safety of their citizens. This accountant would be pleased to learn that there are less-damaging ways to obtain materials and jobs—many of which have been in use for a long time—and that these practices could help balance out the cost-and-benefit account books more evenly. Most of the energy use and environmental damage associated with minerals production occur during extraction, refining, and 124 smelting of virgin materials. Tapping into minerals that have already been extracted and recirculating them through the economy would eliminate much, although certainly not all, of this damage. For example, producing the most energy-intensive metals— aluminum, steel, and copper—solely from recycled metal could reduce the energy used each year to obtain metals by as much as 70 percent. This savings exceeds the amount of energy used annually by the entire South Asian region—which is home to a quarter of the world’s people. This is because it takes far less energy to recycle discarded materials than to extract, process, and refine metals from ore. It takes 95 percent less energy to produce aluminum from recycled materials than from bauxite ore, for instance. Recycling copper takes between five and seven times less energy than processing ore; recycled steel uses two to three-and-a-half times less.59 To make up for losses due to recycling, or dissipation, a closed-loop economy might supplement above-ground stocks with some amount of newly mined materials. Truly sustainable use of resources would require using smaller amounts overall and maximizing the amount of service obtained from each kilogram of material. This would require more than just finding ways to recirculate materials through the global economy. For planners, it would involve designing cities and transportation systems in ways that are less spread out and materials-intensive than they are at present. For consumers, using fewer minerals may well involve a shift in what is valued: for many, the “good life” might not be equated to the amount of stuff accumulated. To comprehend just how absurd it is to continue to mine new metals while existing stocks lie untapped, consider two of the most environmentally damaging metals mined: gold and copper. Currently, three times more gold is sitting in bank vaults, in jewelry boxes, State of the World 2003 SCRAPPING MINING DEPENDENCE and with private investors than is waiting in the reserves identified in underground mines. (See Figure 6–3.) This is enough gold— 150,000 tons—to meet the current demand for 17 years.60 But even if we are able to tap into this above-ground gold mine, a more fundamental question is, Does the world really need an additional 2,400 tons of gold each year? Gold industry advertising campaigns try to convince people that this yellow metal is indeed a necessity, but in fact 80 percent of it is used to make jewelry. Much of this is used in wedding dowries in India and the Middle East. Reducing our dependence on newly mined gold—and its sizable environmental impact—will thus undeniably involve cultural change there and elsewhere.61 Global data on where copper ends up are more sketchy than for gold. For the United States, however, analysts have estimated the amount of mined copper that is in use or in landfills. (See Figure 6–4.) They surmise that in the United States, about 70 million tons of copper are in products that are currently in use. Some of this copper is built into long- lived products such as buildings and electricity cables, where it has a useful life span of 40 years, on average. Copper is also contained in shorter-lived items such as electronic products and durable goods such as washing machines, whose useful life ranges from one to seven years, on average. Even though copper and its alloys can be easily recycled, about 40 million tons of the metal sits in U.S. landfills—as discarded car stereos, pipes, or other products. (An exception is copper contained in scrap iron and steel, which is nearly impossible to separate out from the ferrous metal.) And U.S. recycling rates for copper are much higher than the global average. Just 13 percent of copper consumed worldwide comes from recycled sources.62 This is unfortunate, because metals are eminently recyclable. Used copper or aluminum can be transformed back into the same amount of metal with very little additional supplement of new metal. Aluminum from a beverage container can be melted down, refabricated, and used to make a new can just weeks after it is dropped into a recy- Private Investors (24,000 tons) In Landfills (40 million tons) Fabrication (31,000 tons) Banks and Institutions (31,000 tons) In Use (70 million tons) Above ground Jewelry (65,000 tons) Below ground Above ground Below ground Unmined Reserves (50,000 tons) Unmined Reserves (90 million tons) Source: Lehman Bros. Source: Zeltner et al. Figure 6–3. Gold Stocks Above and Below Ground, 2000 Figure 6–4. U.S. Copper Stocks Above and Below Ground, 1990s 125 State of the World 2003 SCRAPPING MINING DEPENDENCE cling bin. Had the 7 millions tons of cans thrown away by Americans between 1990 and 2000 been recycled, they would have yielded enough aluminum to make 316,000 Boeing 737 planes—which is about 25 times the size of the world’s entire commercial airfleet.63 Why do we expend so much energy trying to find new underground mines if so much useful metal lies in cities and landfills? In several countries, the subsidies offered for virgin materials extraction make it cheaper to dig up new minerals than to recycle existing, aboveground supplies. Mining companies have fought hard to maintain this status. In the United States, for instance, the industry has staunchly opposed any reforms to the 1872 mining law—and has invested large amounts of money to maintain this support. Between mid-1997 and mid-2000, U.S. mining interests contributed almost $21 million to political campaigns.64 Current materials systems are aligned along the uneven playing field that favors miners and places recyclers at a disadvantage. For instance, most smelters and refineries are not set up to accept secondary sources of material. In Germany, the government introduced aggressive laws in the 1990s to encourage recycling—without first ensuring that materials markets could absorb an avalanche of secondary materials, much of which ended up languishing in warehouses.65 Another constraint to recycling is that many modern products are made of a complex set of alloys and materials, which are not easy to separate out and reprocess. But this is hardly insurmountable: products ranging from computers to cars are being designed to be disassembled for repair, reuse, and, ultimately, recycling. Mitsubishi makes a washing machine that can be taken apart using just a screwdriver; Audi makes a 100-percent recyclable car. To aid recycling, some manufac126 turers now put bar codes on parts to identify the different materials.66 Recognizing the value of scrap metals, auto recyclers in the Netherlands recycle about 86 percent by weight of discarded cars. Most cars there are taken apart and reprocessed to reclaim materials in hubcaps, batteries, and other car parts, and this is funded by a $130 disassembly fee that new car buyers pay. Encouraged by the Dutch model, the European Union (EU) has proposed a Scrap Car Directive, which requires manufacturers to take responsibility for cars at the end of their useful lives. Under the proposal, carmakers will have to recycle all recyclable parts of the vehicle, and 85 percent of all materials by weight. The EU proposal also requires manufacturers to discontinue use of heavy metals such as cadmium, mercury, and lead in auto parts because of the health risks they pose during mining, use, and disposal.67 In a similar vein, in June 2000, the European Commission passed a Directive on Waste from Electronics and Electronic Equipment, which is slated to become European law in early 2003. The directive calls for electronics manufacturers to stop using heavy metals by 2006, and for producers to take financial and physical responsibility for recycling, including providing a place for households to return discarded equipment free of charge. Still under negotiation are recycling and reuse targets for producers. Currently, 90 percent of the EU’s electronic waste—from computers, televisions, stereos—ends up in landfills. Many countries outside Europe, including Australia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, have introduced or proposed similar laws requiring electronics firms to take back and recycle their products.68 Producing materials from secondar y sources has significantly smaller impacts than virgin sources would in terms of energy use, toxic emissions, and occupational health haz- State of the World 2003 SCRAPPING MINING DEPENDENCE ards—but it does not eliminate them entirely. In a sustainable materials system, repair, reuse, and remanufacture are the methods of first choice. Recognizing this, the Danish government has banned aluminum cans in favor of reusable glass bottles—nearly 100 percent of bottles there are returned and reused.69 Secondary materials options are laborintensive and have the potential to create many more jobs than mining. But this may not be reassuring to skilled mine workers in places with few alternative income sources. If we are to move to an economy based on less virgin materials mining, a key component will be investment in transition plans to provide safety nets and employment opportunities to workers and communities. The Canadian Labour Congress (CLC) has worked hard to promote “just-transition” plans for workers from sectors such as chemicals, pulp and paper, and mining, noting that “just-transition is an essential part of environmental change.” It has recommended that displaced workers be retrained for high-paying, “green” jobs. The CLC has highlighted the need for unions and governments to be prepared for change: to anticipate that environmental imperatives will—or should—determine the viability of certain industries and jobs. Trade union federations elsewhere, such as the AFL-CIO in the United States, and the European Trade Union Congress, have also endorsed similar fair transition plans.70 With mining jobs in decline around the world, governments, firms, and unions have a tremendous opportunity to create safer, more meaningful, ecologically sustainable employment for these workers and the families they support. Following the enormous layoffs of the 1990s, the South African Employment Bureau and the National Union of Mine workers there developed transition plans to retrain and employ former mine workers—some whom have found new jobs in steel and paper recycling, for instance. In the United States, recycling and remanufacturing employ more than a million people— many more than its mines, which have about 220,000 workers.71 Why do we expend so much energy trying to find new underground mines if so much useful metal lies in cities and landfills? Many towns around the world are looking away from mining and toward more ecologically sustainable industries. Chloride, Arizona, a former silver mining town in the United States, for instance, is looking toward wind energy to reinvigorate its economy. China has 4.3 million mine workers—almost a third of the world’s work force in mining— in nearly 400 mining towns. The mines in some 80 percent of these towns have been largely depleted, and about 100 nonferrous metal mines are expected to close down in the next few years. Li Rongrong, the minister in charge of the State Economic and Trade Commission, has urged these moribund mining regions to expand their economies “in line with sustainable development.”72 Even if we are able to reconfigure our materials economy so that most of our resources come from secondary sources, some mining will likely continue. And there are many immediate opportunities for improving the way mines operate. For instance, it makes sense to do away with some practices that are very damaging and yield so little benefit— such as pouring cyanide over tons of ore to produce a few kilograms of gold that are ultimately used for ornamental purposes. Another practice ripe for change is the dumping of tailings and other mine wastes into rivers and the ocean. And any mining that continues must 127 State of the World 2003 SCRAPPING MINING DEPENDENCE be out of the boundaries of protected areas, and must be conducted with the free, prior, and informed consent of local communities.73 In Costa Rica, intact forests are very valuable to the country—ecotourism is the second-largest source of the country’s revenue. In June 2002, President Abel Pacheco declared a moratorium on all open-pit mines, noting that “the true fuel and the true gold of the future will be water and oxygen; they will be our aquifers and our forest.” Similarly, the county of Cotacachi in Ecuador has banned all forms of mining in order to protect its cloudforest and people.74 Any mining that continues must be out of the boundaries of protected areas and conducted with the free, prior, and informed consent of local communities. In many parts of the world, a few farsighted leaders are taking strong stands against the continued use of cyanide, mercury, and other toxic chemicals in mines. The Baia Mare spill in Romania in 2000 prompted the Czech Senate and the German Parliament to ban gold mining that used cyanide leaching methods. The Provincial Board of the Mindoro province in the Philippines passed a 25year moratorium on mining in January 2002, following controversies over cobalt and nickel mining. And in 1998, a citizens’ initiative in Montana led to a ban on the use of cyanide leaching for new mines or expansions of existing mines in the state.75 Removing subsidies handed out to miners, such as those granted under the U.S. mining law, would have considerable environmental benefits—reducing pollution, for instance, and helping to boost secondary materials production. It would also add income to the public treasury—resources that could be 128 directed toward developing more sustainable materials paths or toward improving social services such as education or health care. Charges for mining permits will also need to be adjusted, to better reflect the long-term costs of depleting nonrenewable resources. Polluters must also be held responsible for damage caused during mine operations and for the ongoing expenses of mine closure. The cost of trying to clean up hundreds of thousands of abandoned mines in the United States alone is estimated as between $32 billion and $72 billion. Although no overall estimates exist for cleanup costs at mines in China, India, South Africa, or Eastern Europe, it is certain that their governments face very large tabs as well. Legislators and environmental agencies must ensure that polluters, not taxpayers, foot these bills, by requiring companies to provide financial guarantees such as surety bonds before they are allowed to start mining. Unfortunately, the Bush administration in the United States is currently attempting to roll back rules that have required mining companies to post reclamation bonds to cover cleanup expenses at mines.76 Many community groups, environmental and human rights organizations, trade unions, and policy think tanks around the world are working together to campaign for some of these changes, which is contributing to the momentum for a new approach to our dependence on minerals and mining. These regional and international networks include the Western Mining Activist Network in North America; the African Initiative on Mining, the Environment, and Society; the Mines, Minerals, and People network in India; and the Global Mining Campaign.77 Agencies whose expressed purpose is to reduce poverty are beginning to reconsider their role in financing an industry that has hurt the poor and the environment. Respond- State of the World 2003 SCRAPPING MINING DEPENDENCE ing to pressure from environmental and human rights groups, MIGA cancelled its risk insurance to Freeport McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in West Papua in 1997. In October 2002, the International Finance Corporation, the private arm of the World Bank Group, decided not to back the controversial Rosia Montana gold mine project in Romania, under directions from Bank president James Wolfensohn. The World Bank is currently undertaking an Extractive Industries Review to evaluate its future funding to mining, oil, and gas. The report is due to be completed at the end of 2003.78 The mining industry itself has begun to examine its impact on the environment and communities. In 1998, nine of the world’s largest mining companies joined together to review the pressing issues they faced; this led to a two-year research effort—the Mining, Minerals and Sustainable Development (MMSD) Project—which issued a report in 2002. Mining companies also jointly formed an International Council on Mining & Met- als, which is now charged with implementing the conclusions of that report. The MMSD study acknowledges some aspects of the industry’s role in environmental damage and human rights violations, but critics note that it “adds little to the existing debate about how the minerals sector should evolve to meet the challenge of sustainable development.”79 There is no question that mineral use has done much to improve the lives of billions of people and to foster the development of modern societies. But we are several eons past the Iron and Bronze Ages of our ancestors— and should no longer need to use polluting and destructive methods to continue to obtain these benefits. Our success in accelerating the transition to materials systems that are less polluting, that create healthy and safe jobs, and that tap into existing supplies will help determine our legacy to future generations— and whether ours will be the age that at long last puts harmful mining practices on the scrap heap of history. 129 Chapter 7 Uniting Divided Cities Molly O’Meara Sheehan When South Africa’s apartheid regime toppled 10 years ago, it captured the imagination of the world. No other country had plunged so deep into the twentieth century governed by laws that brutally divided, by skin color, all of its cities, towns, and villages. A decade into a new era, Johannesburg, South Africa’s largest city, still has a long way to go to overcome this history. Sandton, its prime northern suburb, is a vision in concrete, chrome, and glass—its skyline punctuated by gleaming five-star hotels, office complexes, and upscale shopping malls. Soweto, the best known of the townships erected by blacks not permitted in the “official” city, remains for the most part dusty and ramshackle. All of Johannesburg’s white population had a toilet in their home in 1995; only half of the black population did. And as of 1998, only 13 percent of households in Johannesburg’s black township of Alexandra had one. This disparity in neighborhoods is echoed in grossly inadequate access to education and health care for the black majority.1 While South Africa’s history of racial divi130 sions enshrined in law is unique, its cities are not the only ones that need to be united. Cities divided into rich and poor, healthy and unhealthy, “legal” and “illegal,” are all too common worldwide. In some sense, this is nothing new. Plato observed around 400 BC that “any city, however small, is in fact divided into two, one the city of the poor, the other of the rich.” Centuries of technological innovations and social progress have done little to close the gap. Priced out of the “legal” real estate market, hundreds of millions of people seek shelter in the most precarious places, on steep hillsides or floodplains, living not only with the constant threat of possible eviction but also more vulnerable to natural disasters, pollution, and disease from lack of water and toilets. More than half the people in Cairo, Nairobi, and Mumbai (formerly Bombay), for example, lack adequate housing—living in slums or even on the pavement.2 Slum residents have not gained much from society’s intense use of key resources over the last century, a use that has pushed the State of the World 2003 UNITING DIVIDED CITIES Human Development Index, 1998 planet’s support systems to their limits. One tensions over water. 4 group of scientists has estimated that people Cities will have to be the building blocks have transformed half of Earth’s land surof development that values nature and peoface through agriculture, forestry, and urbanple—and they do hold enormous potential for ization; contributed to a 30-percent increase both environmental and social progress. in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration When people are concentrated in one place, since the beginning of the Industrial Revothey ought to be able to use fewer materials, lution; and today use more than half of all and to recycle them with greater ease, than available surface fresh water. The benefits of widely dispersed populations can; at the same all this activity, however, have accrued to a reltime, they should be more easily linked to atively wealthy minority. In 2001, 52 perschools, health care, and other key services. cent of the gross world product went to the Compared with higher forms of government, 12 percent of the world living in industrial city halls are closer to people, so organized citnations—the same group responsible for a disizens theoretically have a better chance of proportionate share of industrial timber conchanging the status quo on matters of envisumption, paper use, and carbon emissions. ronmental and social concern. Throughout These inequities are perhaps most glaring in history, higher levels of health and educathe world’s slums, where the poor are exposed tion have come after periods of urbanization; to the worst environmental conditions, today, the countries that rank highest in surincluding pollution from the wealthy.3 veys of freedom and human development are While the inequalities of wealth, power, also the most urbanized. City-level investopportunities, and survival prospects that ments in water infrastructure, waste provision, health, and education match up with national hobble humanity are crystallized in cities, rankings of human development that take these places will have an important role to into account life expectancy and literacy. (See play in any shift toward development that Figure 7–1.) Many cities perform better or does not destroy the environment. At the worse in these measures of “development” root of sustainable development—which can than could be explained by income alone, be defined as meeting the needs of all today without endangering the prospects of future generations—is the challenge 1.0 Stockholm, Sweden of improving the welfare of billions of people without further undermining 0.8 Earth’s support systems. Cities are where most of the world’s people 0.6 will live and where an even greater share of key planetary resources will 0.4 be used in the coming decades. Key Niamey, global environmental problems have 0.2 Niger their roots in cities—from the vehicle exhaust that pollutes and warms 0.0 0 20 40 60 80 100 the atmosphere, to the urban City Development Index, 1998 demand for timber that denudes forests and threatens biodiversity, to Figure 7–1. Link Between Human Development and City Development, 150 Cities, 1998 the municipal thirst that heightens 131 State of the World 2003 UNITING DIVIDED CITIES suggesting that municipal policies can make a big difference.5 By ensuring that their poorest slum dwellers feel secure in their own homes, can make a living, and are healthy, the world’s relatively poorer cities could leapfrog their wealthier counterparts in the North, creating an urban model that values both people and nature. Cities typically are responsible for granting titles to property, providing water and waste disposal, organizing public transportation, and making building codes and land use rules. These activities could be carried out in a way that makes it easier for poor people to survive, while also having environmental benefits for the whole city and the world. Local governments can, for instance, promote metals recycling, organic waste composting, and urban agriculture, can give priority to cheap public transportation, and can allow people to run small businesses out of their homes. Such activities have the potential to green cities, create job opportunities, and reduce the demand for materials from logging, mining, and industrial agriculture, all of which take an enormous environmental toll. Urban centers in the developing South now dominate the ranks of the world’s largest cities, so they are well positioned to capture the public’s imagination. While most of the world actually lives in smaller cities, towns, and villages, big cities command special attention. Many people either know of or have been to large metropolises, which often serve as national capitals, financial hubs, sites for major airports, and centers of commerce and media. The cities of the industrial North were center stage in this regard for just a brief moment in history, claiming all the slots in the top 10 in 1900. By 2001, however, only Tokyo and New York remained on that list. (See Table 7–1.) Demographers expect that by 2015, Los Angeles and Shanghai will be 132 bumped from the top 10, as Karachi and Jakarta move up. Why shouldn’t some of the cities that lead us toward a more equitable and environmentally friendly model of development be some of these behemoths of the twenty-first century? 6 In many cases, municipal reforms that benefit the poorest people and nature will be more likely if city halls become more open and accountable. Local governments usually do not boldly address the needs of their poorest people in ways that would yield wide-ranging environmental benefits because people who have more money and influence—from real estate developers to leaders of polluting industries—often push a different agenda. In the last decade, some cities have started to include their poorest citizens in decisionmaking, often with national and international support. From slum dwellers federations worldwide to an innovative budgeting process in many Brazilian cities, poor people’s voices are rising in open political arenas. If they are to help unite divided cities, governments will have to work even more closely with large numbers of poor urbanites, many of whom live in slums.7 Poverty and Inept Government in an Urbanizing World Slums are an intensely local phenomenon with growing global significance. A neighborhood-by-neighborhood look at the world’s cities would reveal that not all poor people live in slums, and that not all slums are uniformly poor. As urban poverty concentrates in slums, however, these neighborhoods offer government officials distinct places on the ground where they could find and work with some of their poorest constituents. Although “slums” are generally under- State of the World 2003 UNITING DIVIDED CITIES Table 7–1.World’s 10 Largest Urban Areas, 1000, 1800, 1900, and 2001 1000 1800 1900 2001 (million population) Cordova1 Kaifeng Constantinople 2 Angkor Kyoto Cairo Baghdad Nishapur Hasa Anhilvada 0.45 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.18 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.11 0.10 Peking 3 London Canton 4 Edo 5 Constantinople Paris Naples Hangchow 6 Osaka Kyoto 1.10 0.86 0.80 0.69 0.57 0.55 0.43 0.39 0.38 0.38 London New York Paris Berlin Chicago Vienna Tokyo St. Petersburg Manchester Philadelphia 6.5 4.2 3.3 2.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 Tokyo São Paulo Mexico City New York Mumbai 7 Los Angeles Calcutta Dhaka Delhi Shanghai 26.5 18.3 18.3 16.8 16.5 13.3 13.3 13.2 13.0 12.8 1 Cordoba today. 2 Istanbul today. 3 Beijing today. 4 Guangzhou today. 5 Tokyo today. 6 Hangzhou today. Formerly Bombay. SOURCE: 1000–1900 from Tertius Chandler, Four Thousand Years of Urban Growth: An Historical Census (Lewiston, NY: Edwin Mellen Press, 1987); 2001 from U.N. Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision (New York: 2002). 7 stood to be urban areas with miserable living conditions, they vary dramatically from place to place and are described by a universe of overlapping terms—some of them are colorful; many of them, like “slum,” are frankly negative; and few are synonymous. “Squatter settlements” are formed when poor people build shelter on land that does not belong to them. Such settlements may also be called “illegal” or “informal,” terms that are often used interchangeably when describing the off-the-books nature of some slums. Other development authorized by landowners that is not in the squatter category may still be illegal or informal because the land is not zoned for building, or because it has been unlawfully subdivided into smaller parcels, or because the dwellings are not up to the standards of building codes.8 All these terms can give a false impression of the character of communities without conveying the basic problem of insecurity. Lawabiding people often live in “illegal” housing. Many “squatter settlements” are packed with rent-paying tenants. Neighborhoods settled by squatters decades ago may no longer be slums. And some illegally built or subdivided neighborhoods may be upscale from the outset. As every city has its own history, culture, economy, and real estate peculiarities, each slum has its own look and feel—whether it’s a kampung in Indonesia, a favela in Brazil, a gecekondu in Turkey, or a bidonville in parts of francophone Africa. Despite the tremendous variation, one common characteristic of slums tends to be the insecurity that residents feel in their own homes, which often thwarts them from improving their living conditions and reaching their full potential.9 The United Nations estimates that 712 million people lived in slums in 1993 and that their ranks swelled to at least 837 million by 2001, with slum dwellers accounting for 56 percent of the urban population in Africa, 37 percent in Asia and Oceania, and 26 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean. These rough numbers, drawn from surveys and census data that may be incomplete or out of date, give some sense of the scale of the global slum population, although they may 133 State of the World 2003 UNITING DIVIDED CITIES well underestimate it. Another U.N. Billion People 10 study suggests that more than 1 billion DEVELOPING NATIONS people worldwide live in slums.10 Urban population 8 Urban growth is meeting up with Rural population poverty and inept governments to fuel 6 MORE DEVELOPED NATIONS the current proliferation of slums. World Total population population increased by some 2.4 bil4 lion in the past 30 years, and roughly half of that growth took place in cities. 2 Over the next three decades, the industrial North is not expected to expand in 0 total population very much. In contrast, 2000 2030 1970 demographers believe that in many develFigure 7–2. World Population Growth by oping countries, urban migration and Region in 1970 and 2000, with growth combined with high birth rates Projection for 2030 will mean that between 2000 and 2030 urban share of world population is likely to nearly all of the 2.2 billion people added to have grown from nearly 50 percent today to world population will end up in urban cenmore than 60 percent.12 ters of the developing world. (See Figure 7–2.) While the size and growth of the urban While rural people tend to have less access population in developing nations dominates to cash, education, clean water, and sanitation global population projections, there is always than city dwellers do, the deficits cause more a lag between censuses, and all nations have severe problems in an urban setting. People their own definitions of “urban” that tend to are less able to grow their own food in cities, change over time, so these estimates are so they must rely on the cash economy for rough.11 survival. Urban jobs tend to require higher Poverty may be even harder to measure on levels of education. And inadequate sanitation a global basis than population size is, but brings infectious disease to more people in various studies do point to greater numbers cities, where dense populations make it easof urban poor. One U.S. dollar will buy far ier for disease to spread. Addressing the World Bank in April 2002, economist Jeffrey Sachs less food in Jakarta or São Paulo than in noted that too often the fact that most of the Dacca or Nairobi—and it will buy even less poor live in rural areas is used to argue for in New York. For that reason, the internaonly a rural-led growth strategy to end tional standard of a $1 a day income to denote poverty. “We need a better urban-based strat“extreme poverty” or lack of money to meet egy as well,” he pointed out.13 basic food needs invariably underestimates poverty in cities. Still, the World Bank sugSlums take root when local governments gests that some 1.2 billion people worldwide fail to serve large numbers of poor people. were extremely poor as of 1998, with rural Many cities in Africa, Asia, and Latin Amersub-Saharan Africa and South Asia hardest hit. ica have housing laws and codes copied from Martin Ravallion of the World Bank estithose written in nineteenth- or twentiethmates that the urban share of extreme poverty century Europe that make little sense in their is currently 25 percent worldwide, and likely current context. Poor people, by building to reach 50 percent by 2035. By then the their own shelters, have become the devel134 State of the World 2003 UNITING DIVIDED CITIES oping world’s “most important organizers, builders, and planners,” in the words of researchers Jorge Hardoy and David Satterthwaite. Yet most codes are written not for these local builders but for engineers or architects in a different time and place. In Nairobi, for example, Kenyan codes call for the building materials standard in the United Kingdom.14 Even if appropriate housing codes were on the books, the larger problem of governments being unable or unwilling to enforce laws and provide needed urban services would remain. In many countries, national governments have given local governments more responsibility for providing services in the last several decades, but have been slower to give cities money from national tax revenue or to allow local governments to raise the needed funds themselves. Moreover, the disparity between the budgets of rich and poor cities is striking. A survey of 237 cities worldwide shows an average municipal revenue per person of just $15.20 in Africa, $248.60 in Asia, $252.20 in Latin America, and $2,763.30 in Western Europe, the United States, Japan, and the rest of the industrial world. The ratio of city budgets in Africa to those of the industrial world, 1:182, is far higher than the 1:51 ratio of per capita income between sub-Saharan Africa and highincome nations.15 As money buys political influence virtually everywhere in the world, bribes and kickbacks often keep cash-strapped local officials in developing nations from operating in the interests of their poorest constituents. The nongovernmental organization (NGO) Transparency International, in a ranking of 102 nations, found corruption rampant in many nations with large or growing numbers of urban poor, including Bangladesh, Bolivia, Indonesia, Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda.16 The available data on population, poverty, and corruption, while patchy, thus suggest that the conditions for large and growing slums exist in many parts of the world. The areas of particular concern include sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and parts of Latin America. (See Figure 7–3).17 The Paradox of Slums A slum can demonstrate both the very best and the very worst in society, showing the ingenuity of poor people in desperate circumstances as well as the failure of government to make the most of this human energy. People who are not born into informal settlements may find their way there because their other options are far bleaker. While the energy that people in slums may invest in securing a better future for their families shows the resiliency of the human spirit, if government were functioning well, people would not have to try so hard to achieve a decent standard of living. Mtumba, an informal community in Nairobi, is one place where it is easy to see both the good and the bad aspects of life in a slum. (See Box 7–1.)18 All over the world, people move to new places for better opportunities, and when they choose informal settlements in urban areas it is often because these slums, shantytowns, or squatter settlements offer the best chance for them to survive. In some cases, slums may offer the most affordable lodging close to jobs, even if the location still requires a very long commute. In general, the “offthe-books” nature of informal communities confers certain advantages. People can skirt zoning laws that separate residences from businesses, and can set up shop inside their home or just outside. Plus they face low short-term costs: low rent and no property taxes. But the same informality that may help poor people gain a tenuous toehold on the 135 State of the World 2003 UNITING DIVIDED CITIES 42 countries (of 77 surveyed) where at least 10 percent of the population lives on less than $1 a day 67 countries with urban growth rate over 4 percent Source:World Bank, UNPD, Transparency Intl. Figure 7–3. 35 most corrupt countries (of 102 surveyed) The Overlap of Poverty, Urban Growth, and Corruption ladder toward economic security can also prevent them from moving up that ladder. As informal settlements legally do not exist, people who live there often lack not only money and political power, but any legal means of solving problems. The owners of slum dwellings can more easily get away with charging exorbitant rents. Although the share of residents who are owners versus renters varies among communities, the proportion of renters is often higher than commonly thought (people assume that most, if not all, inhabitants are recent migrants who have built their own accommodation). The shacks can be lucrative investments, but their owners do not typically reinvest their profits by repairing them or hooking them up to electricity or water, and tenants have no way to hold landlords accountable.19 A related irony is that the poorest urban 136 residents often pay the highest price for essential goods and services that are delivered by government at much lower cost to wealthier residents. In some cases, this is because a household without a formal address does not qualify for hookup to the public water system, entry into public schools, or other essentials. In Mumbai, for example, pavement dwellers have trouble obtaining the cards that qualify poor people for food aid and health care. What makes informal settlements so cheap in the short term is that the cost of urban services are not factored in from the beginning, as they would be in the formal construction sector; in the latter case, the government provides streets and services and someone buys the land at the outset, then the buildings are constructed, and only afterwards do people move into finished houses. In contrast, informal settlements begin with people mov- State of the World 2003 UNITING DIVIDED CITIES BOX 7–1. LIFE IN MTUMBA, A NAIROBI SLUM The view from a mound of dirt and rubbish on the edge of Mtumba, a Nairobi neighborhood, is striking.To the south, acacia bushes dot the grass plains of Nairobi National Park as far as the eye can see; to the north lies the dense collection of one-story shacks that constitute Mtumba—5–6 hectares where roughly 6,000 people crowd into 800 makeshift structures that are cobbled together with mud, wattle, plastic tarps, and iron sheets. Priced out of the “formal” real estate market, like 55 percent of Nairobi’s residents, the people of Mtumba have settled in “informal” housing—and this can be both cheered and despaired. Many have fought hard to make it to Nairobi, and surmount daily challenges not only to survive but to improve their community. If government worked properly, it would tap this human potential rather than squander it. On paper—in local maps and laws—the borders of the National Park’s 11,700 hectares are well defined, helping to protect the rhinos and giraffes that live there.What does not show up on any map is Mtumba.This means that its residents are endangered, receiving no protection from the law. Mtumba’s families have moved twice, landing in their current location in 1992, where they have had their homes completely demolished once and been threatened with eviction several times.“Every day we are waiting for the demolition squad,” says George Ng’ang’a.“We are refugees in our own country.” Ng’ang’a, like others, came to Mtumba because it offered a respite from rural violence and a closer proximity to jobs. He says his family’s land was taken by the colonial Kenyan government in 1952 to build a golf course.“My ing onto land, then building homes and businesses over time, and only later, if at all, negotiating connections to urban streets, water systems, and electricity grids and obtaining title to property.20 As a result, poor people often end up father was a businessman,” he says,“so we went to different places, like nomads.” Ng’ang’a continued the itinerant lifestyle, always looking for better opportunities for himself, his wife, and their children.“We came to the Nairobi slums, even though I have an education.” For several years in a row the people of Mtumba have chosen George Ng’ang’a to be the leader of the community’s governing council in informal elections. Residents have elected a committee that has built a school, where four teachers juggle morning and afternoon shifts to teach more than 400 children. On Sundays, community leaders convene committee meetings in the school, Mtumba’s sturdiest structure, with a wood frame and corrugated metal walls and roof. Even with this concerted effort, Mtumba remains ineligibile for basic urban services. Residents share three pit latrines and two water taps.“It’s expensive,” says Tom Werunga of the water that private companies truck in and hook up to the taps.“A family needs 100 liters per day for drinking and cleaning.” This costs 25 Kenyan shillings, nearly half the earnings of someone who makes 50–60 shillings per day, as Werunga does. Nairobi’s slum dwellers pay more than residents of wealthy housing estates for water—as a result, they use less than enough to meet health needs.The under-five mortality rate is more than 151 per thousand births in Nairobi slums, far higher than the average for the city as a whole (61 per thousand) and 25 percent more than in rural Kenya (113 per thousand). SOURCE: See endnote 18. building their own schools and latrines and purchasing water, at a very high cost, from private vendors. The price of water in the slums may be 7–11 times the tap price of piped water in wealthier areas in Nairobi, 12–25 times the tap price in Dhaka, 16–34 137 State of the World 2003 UNITING DIVIDED CITIES times the tap price in Tegucigalpa, 20–60 times the tap price in Surabaya, and 28–83 times the tap price in Karachi. Toilet stalls, generally operated by governments rather than private vendors, are not as pricey but far less common. Pointing to deficiencies in data supplied by governments, researchers at the UK-based International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) have estimated that as much as two thirds of the urban population in Africa, Asia, and Latin America has no safe way to dispose of human waste.21 Water that is too expensive for slum dwellers to use in adequate amounts, combined with few toilets, leads to disease. When asked at an international conference to sum up the worst environmental health threats to poor people in cities of the developing world, IIED’s David Satterthwaite showed a slide with a single word: “shit.” At a later meeting, renowned epidemiologist Sir Richard Doll provided a more thorough summary: “bugs and shit.” Slum dwellers pay more for each liter of water they consume than wealthier residents hooked up to municipal water mains and sewers, and they disproportionately suffer from water- and waste-borne pathogens—from diarrhea-causing E. coli and rota virus to roundworm. “Put bluntly,” writes health researcher Carolyn Stephens, “the poor pay more for their cholera.” Gullies filled with stagnant water often serve as cesspools in slums, and attract mosquitoes, so slum residents are also more vulnerable to malaria. (See Chapter 4.) 22 Furthermore, the money slum dwellers spend on water, kerosene, or other key items from private vendors does not reach public coffers, where it could then be used to extend public services, from water pipes to health clinics, into slums. In Mumbai, local authorities are beginning to understand that bringing slum dwellers “onto the books” will help 138 the city, and they are now working with the National Slum Dwellers Federation and its partners, other NGOs. “From sanitation to access to policymaking—when poor people are allowed these things, government has an easier job,” says Sheela Patel, who directs an NGO in Mumbai, the Society for the Promotion of Area Resource Centres (SPARC), that works with slum dwellers.23 Slums can also breed disease that threatens broader public health. While pathogens travel quickly in crowded slum conditions, they do not stop at the gates of wealthier enclaves. By weakening people’s immune systems, the AIDS virus makes people more susceptible to other communicable diseases, speeding the transmission of airborne pathogens such as the tuberculosis bacteria. Both HIV and tuberculosis are spreading rapidly in urban centers of the developing world.24 Moreover, economic inequality, in the form of glaring disparities between poor slums and posh gated enclaves, may itself be a drag on public health. Researchers comparing U.S. metropolitan areas found a higher level of premature deaths in the places with the highest income inequality, while in 13 industrial countries there were lower levels of premature deaths from certain diseases in more egalitarian countries. One theory to explain these findings is that cities or countries with high levels of inequality may be underinvesting in important physical and social infrastructure, such as education, that could serve to prevent some diseases. Another possibility is that high levels of inequality contribute to social tensions that stress people; as the immune system takes cues from both body and mind, people under stress are more susceptible to illness.25 The persistence of slums in an era of unprecedented prosperity may also contribute to tensions that threaten local, national, and even global security. Slums do not create criminals, but the lack of policing in bad State of the World 2003 UNITING DIVIDED CITIES neighborhoods allows criminals to victimize a city’s poorest people. Following the September 2001 attacks on the United States, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman wrote that in an increasingly interconnected world, it will be impossible to ignore the problems of people living in desperate conditions at home or abroad: “If you don’t visit a bad neighborhood, a bad neighborhood will visit you.” The educated and relatively wealthy young hijackers who used planes as weapons on September 11 did not come from the slums; however, the contrast of poverty in the Middle East with wealth in the United States and Western Europe appears to have been at least one factor motivating their actions.26 From Bulldozing to Upgrading Governments around the world have taken various tacks to address slums over the years, with spurts of change as urbanization transformed the United Kingdom and other nations of the west from the mid-nineteenth to early twentieth centuries, then Latin America in the mid-twentieth century, and then much of Asia and Africa in recent years. Whether razing blighted neighborhoods or building giant public housing projects, governments have been slow to consult poor people when making plans to improve their living conditions. Over time, the potential for organized citizens to transform their own neighborhoods has become much clearer. Individuals working in Latin America led the way in showing policymakers the contributions of poor people. John F. C. Turner, a British architect, helped secure a major World Bank loan in 1958 to work with communities to rebuild after a devastating earthquake in Lima, Peru. He says that he and his colleagues “soon realized that our professional assumptions of design, construction and man- agerial superiority were exaggerated, to say the least. We soon learned that we needed our supposed clients’ own knowledge and the skills of local builders—and how badly our own bright ideas ignored their realities.”27 Turner drew on his experiences working in Lima and elsewhere to give a scathing critique of prevailing government policy in 1976: “Comparing the cities that the poor build with the ‘redevelopment’ schemes built to ‘rehabilitate’ the poor, one could paraphrase Churchill: Never in urban history did so many of the poor do so much with so little; and never before did so few of the rich do so little with so much.” That same year, U.S. scholar Janice Perlman published the findings of her research in the favelas of Rio de Janeiro in The Myth of Marginality: Urban Poverty and Politics in Rio de Janeiro, which found that policymakers’ assumptions about favelados were “empirically false, analytically misleading, and pernicious in their policy implications,” as these poor people gave much more to the city than they got in return.28 To better support the efforts of poor urbanites, governments and NGOs adopted two general tactics. One was to set aside land for them, and in some cases equip that land with water taps or other services. This became known as the “sites” or “sites-and-services” approach. Governments were not always able to find suitable land to do this, however. With the second method, “upgrading,” governments worked with residents to extend streets or sewers into existing communities. A few countries launched into this on a national scale. In many other cases, community groups or NGOs took the lead.29 Indonesia was one of the first of just a few countries to make a national policy of helping slum residents upgrade their neighborhoods. As urban populations grew in the mid-twentieth century, local governments there responded by evicting people who set139 State of the World 2003 UNITING DIVIDED CITIES tled on land not designated for housing. But by the late 1960s, government officials also began to focus on improving conditions in existing informal settlements, or kampungs. With the first Kampung Improvement Programmes, city governments provided concrete slabs and gutters on demand to kampung residents in Indonesia’s two largest cities, Jakarta and Surabaya. People used these to construct paths and drains. In the 1970s, as these efforts attracted the support of national government and international agencies such as the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and the Government of the Netherlands, the program was extended to hundreds of cities and towns.30 Activists from Mumbai have been at the forefront in mobilizing a global push for the rights of slum residents. Initially, the program in Surabaya was seen by some as proceeding too slowly. The Surabaya Institute of Technology helped to broker extensive agreements between the kampung communities and the local government, which made the process more timeconsuming. People in Surabaya’s kampungs ended up with more ownership of and responsibility for the improvements they made—which is often given as a reason that improvements in Surabaya’s kampungs continue to be made to this day. As of 1990, the living conditions of some 1.2 million people were improved; a more recent annual review done by the Surabaya Institute of Technology in 2001, found that the bulk of low-income people had benefited in some way.31 In the slums of Cairo, NGOs have helped to strengthen the capabilities of industrious residents—in particular, the Zabbaleen, a marginalized social group who survive as 140 wastepickers (zabbaleen is Arabic for garbage collector). In the 1940s, this group started collecting garbage to bring back to their settlements, where they would sort out the recyclable, nonorganic material and use the organic waste (food scraps and so on) to feed animals they bred in their homes for milk, eggs, and meat. By the 1970s, Cairo’s burgeoning population was creating more waste than the collectors could handle. In 1981, an NGO called Environmental Quality International received a Ford Foundation grant to work with the Zabbaleen—in particular, with Zabbaleen Gameya, a group formed in the 1970s to focus on the welfare of garbage collectors.32 Over the next decade, the resulting Zabbaleen Environment and Development Programme helped improve both the living conditions of the Zabbaleen and the waste collection capacity of the city. In 1984, technical advisors working with the Zabbaleen set up a composting plant in the community of Mokattam, where many of them lived. Residents could take waste from any animals they bred to the plant, removing a health hazard from their homes. The income from the compost sales supported the start-up of rag and paper recycling, another income source, the proceeds of which were used to launch literacy classes and health projects. In 1986, the garbage collectors’ group introduced some low-cost technologies that made recycling nonorganic waste much easier. As a result, Mokattam became Cairo’s main trading post for plastic, paper, cardboard, and metal.33 Although the program has fallen short of some of its goals, the Zabbaleen have made real gains, building water and wastewater systems, schools, and health clinics—and they could do better still with government support. Between 1979 and 1991, infant mortality decreased from 240 per thousand to 117. State of the World 2003 UNITING DIVIDED CITIES Today, about 40,000 Zabbaleen work in the daily pickup and recycling of some 3,000 tons of household trash, about one third of the city’s total garbage output, at no cost to the government. As Cairo moves toward contracting with private companies for waste services, the city risks destroying the Zabbaleen’s door-to-door system that generates seven to eight full-time jobs per ton of waste and recycles 80 percent of the waste it collects. While NGOs have taken the lead in working with the Zabbaleen, the city government could now step in, using the funds it would spend on a large international waste contractor to partner with the Zabbaleen and improve their working conditions.34 In India, since 1987 the National Slum Dwellers Federation (NSDF) has partnered with social workers, researchers, students, doctors, and other professionals in the Society for the Promotion of Area Resource Centres, as well as with a collective of women’s groups called Mahila Milan (“women together”), to engage government officials as partners in improving the living conditions of poor people in Mumbai. Some 40 percent of people there live in slums or other forms of degraded housing, while perhaps another 10 percent live with no roof above their heads, on the pavement.35 The coalition of NSDF, SPARC, and Mahila Milan, known as the Alliance, has organized communities around a project of common interest—say, improving working conditions or building a toilet—and then used that project to negotiate with officials and to give local authorities, national government, and international agencies an idea of what might be accomplished with greater support. Refusing to deliver slums as “vote banks” to local politicians, the Alliance instead offers to work with whomever is in power.36 Among other achievements, this coalition has shown that when poor people have set- tled in places that are not safe, communities and government officials must cooperate to figure out a better solution. Many of Mumbai’s poor people made their homes in shanties on the land alongside the rail lines, where they are ineligible for basic services and risk being hit by trains. With the Alliance, these shanty dwellers began to organize themselves in the late 1980s, conducting a census, starting a savings group, and approaching the government with proposals for relocation. They made some headway in the mid1990s, when the government began to negotiate with the World Bank on a major project that would expand Mumbai’s rail network and construct new roads—and in the process displace many families. The government invited railway communities to participate in organizing their relocation. When rail authorities started illegally demolishing shacks in February 2000, the Alliance documented the activity, forcing the bulldozers to stop. The next month, some 4,000 families moved into new accommodations.37 Activists from Mumbai have also been at the forefront in mobilizing a global push for the rights of slum residents. In 1996, the National Slum Dwellers Federation of India, partner NGOs, and the Asian Coalition for Housing Rights joined forces with the South African Homeless People’s Federation to forge Shack/Slum Dwellers International (SDI). Today, SDI boasts members from Argentina, Cambodia, Colombia, India, Kenya, Madagascar, Namibia, Nepal, the Philippines, South Africa, Swaziland, Thailand, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Through this network, slum residents are organizing themselves and learning from each other. Communities collect data on their neighborhoods, set up savings accounts that eventually can be turned into revolving loan funds, and negotiate with officials to change government policies in their favor.38 141 State of the World 2003 UNITING DIVIDED CITIES The importance of local governments working with their poorest citizens comes through in these stories from Indonesia, Egypt, and India: extensive consultation with neighborhood residents in Surabaya helped the government improve slums there; in Cairo, NGOs helped the wastepickers develop their living areas—an improvement that could be lost if government does not join in now; and Mumbai’s slum dwellers, together with NGOs, are showing government officials how they would gain by better partnerships. Securing Homes and Jobs Policymakers often describe “slum upgrading” in terms of discrete projects—but that mindset will not yield the kind of systematic changes in land rules, city services, and access to finance needed to encourage and build on the work of communities. Surveying papers on the performance of “aid” projects, the editors of Environment and Urbanization found poor urban people puzzled, and in some cases angered, by the activity in which they had little chance to participate and that fizzled out when the advisors left. Governments could better use their power to be effective partners with slum dwellers in two broad areas: helping residents secure their homes and improving their prospects of making a living.39 A central problem blocking wider adoption of “self-help” solutions is that—in the eyes of the law—residents of informal settlements do not belong on the land they live on. People have difficulty convincing themselves, let alone anyone else, to invest in improving their neighborhood if there is a widespread perception that it all could be bulldozed the next day. In the Mokattam settlement of Cairo and the kampungs of Surabaya, in contrast, people had a sufficient sense of security that they would not be summarily evicted. 142 And in Mumbai, activists negotiated deals with local governments before proceeding with upgrading projects. Thus governments could take steps to ensure that more poor people feel safe in their own homes.40 The most obvious way for a family to secure their home is by getting a title to the property. If governments were to grant people in informal settlements this legal recognition, it theoretically could open up new opportunities for development, and even credit—a point made most famously by Peruvian economist Hernando de Soto, who describes buildings without titles as “dead capital,” useful only for whatever shelter they provide. Buildings with titles, in contrast, can have a whole other “life” in capital markets, where their owners can leverage them. De Soto was instrumental in prompting Peru to undertake a massive titling program that formalized some 1 million urban land parcels between 1996 and 2000, first in the pueblos jovenes of Lima, and then in other cities.41 Evidence from various cities, including Lima, suggests that titling may not be a “onesize-fits-all” first step, however, as it is not just red tape but murky questions of land ownership that separate the informal from the formal world. In Lima, as in many Latin American cities, numerous informal settlements took shape as groups of settlers planned “invasions” of unused public land. Switching the title from the state to the residents has therefore been fairly straightforward. Lima’s land titling operation has been criticized for starting with these easy cases and avoiding settlements on private land, where the ownership situation may be much more complex.42 Indeed, in much of Africa and Asia, many informal settlements are on private land, and sorting out ownership can be complicated by a mix of colonial land laws and indigenous, customary laws. Shlomo Angel, who surveyed housing indicators in more than 50 State of the World 2003 UNITING DIVIDED CITIES cities worldwide for a joint World Bank/UNHABITAT program in the 1990s, argues that the formal land market simply has not worked well for poor people in these places, so that even if governments could formalize every parcel of land quickly, this would raise prices and ultimately not serve the interests of many poor people.43 Rather than two clearcut categories of “legal” and “illegal” settlement, a continuum exists with varying degrees of security, as intermediate forms of tenure confer some of the advantages of property rights to people who lack legal titles. Some ad hoc arrangements have arisen over time and become widely accepted, whereas others were introduced by governments. Reviewing more than a dozen examples of non-title means of achieving secure tenure from around the world, British development analyst Geoffrey Payne concludes that governments should “maintain a wide range of statutory, customary, and non-statutory tenure options, so that all households, especially the poor and vulnerable, can obtain access to land, shelter, services and livelihood opportunities in ways that meet their short- and longer-term needs.” 44 Over the years, policymakers have more widely recognized people’s right to secure housing. UN-HABITAT launched a new global campaign for secure tenure in 1999, helping national and local governments change laws and policies to promote housing rights and oppose forced evictions. Heads of state meeting in New York for the United Nations Millennium Summit in 2000 pledged to achieve a significant improvement in the lives of 100 million slum dwellers by 2020, with the two measures of “improvement” to be access to better sanitation and security of tenure—a goal initially set forth by the Cities Alliance, a joint effort of the World Bank, UN-HABITAT, associations of local author- ities, and bilateral aid agencies launched in 1999.45 When asked how improved security will be measured, Billy Cobbett of the Cities Alliance acknowledges: “It’s tricky.” Many governments do not count slum dwellers in their censuses, let alone measure their sense of security. Nonetheless, says Cobbett, this goal is forcing national governments, local authorities, and the World Bank to begin to realign themselves to better serve the needs of the poor.46 The second area where governments need to take action is in improving the livelihood prospects of the poor. Most people come to cities seeking a better life, holding out the hope of finding a job. Indeed, the top concern of mayors worldwide, according to one survey, is jobs. Many cities, in their quest for economic development, look outward rather than inward—trying to lure large companies to set up shop within their borders, for example. Some mayors will overlook lax environmental standards or poor working conditions as long as companies bring much-needed jobs to their people. But cities could do much more to match the desire of poor people for employment with work that would actually improve the local environment. One local government that has just started to make strides in this area is the tiny county of Cotacachi in Ecuador. (See Box 7–2.) While national governments often retain control of education, which is central to boosting job skills, cities can carry out many of their duties in ways that widen poor people’s access to employment. Key areas for cities to target include water and waste services, urban agriculture, transportation and land use decisions, and small-scale credit operations.47 Mounds of refuse and inadequate water and sanitation in poor urban communities suggest jobs in construction and service provision that desperately need to be filled. To 143 State of the World 2003 UNITING DIVIDED CITIES BOX 7–2. GREENING LIVELIHOODS IN COTACACHI, ECUDAOR In Cotacachi County, Ecuador, a local government is working with an umbrella organization of NGOs and some 37,000 citizens to transform the economy so that people will be making a living in ways that do not harm the environment. Cotacachi County lies between the western slope of the Andes mountains and the Pacific Ocean, in Ecuador’s largely rural northern province of Imbabura.While Cotacachi is small and relatively rural, even the world’s biggest cities could take lessons from the way its local leadership is striving to create green jobs for poor citizens. “One of the significant driving forces for the creation of the ecological county was our encounter with some typical faces of unsustainable development,” writes Carlos Zorrilla, president of an environmental NGO called DECOIN. Since the 1960s, land reform policies had encouraged small farmers to farm mountainous areas covered by tropical forests unsuited to the task, while the World Bank, Mitsubishi, and others had proposed large mining projects. In 1996, the county elected a new mayor, this end, municipal authorities could partner with slum dwellers who need both wages and cleaner streets. The system of garbage collection and recycling in Cairo discussed earlier is an example of an opportunity for municipal authorities to partner with people in low-income settlements for mutual benefit. Starting in 1997, the municipality of Santo Andre in São Paulo, Brazil, started a program that employs people, many of whom previously could not find work, to collect and recycle garbage.48 City governments could also do much more to link water and waste services to urban agriculture, which by itself stands to provide both jobs and nutrition. When com144 Auki Tituaña, who introduced annual participatory assemblies.The next year, members of DECOIN proposed the creation of an “ecocanton.” Over the course of three years, citizens and local authorities hammered out a new ecological ordinance, which clearly states things that are not to be done: no mining, no logging near water sources, no farming of genetically modified crops, and no industries that could introduce toxic elements, such as cyanide, mercury, lead, or other heavy metals, to the environment. But it also provides measures for positive change—from requiring garbage to be separated and recycled, to financial incentives to owners of native forests for sustainable management, to promotion of organic farming.To pursue less damaging businesses, the county is studying the flower industry, researching cleaner technologies for leather crafting, and seeking markets for “green products” such as shade-grown organic coffee. In 2002, UNESCO awarded Cotacachi a Cities for Peace Prize for these and other efforts. SOURCE: See endnote 47. posted, organic trash—paper, food scraps, and even human waste—turns into a valuable resource that could be used on crops within or around cities. Rosario, a city of more than 1 million in Argentina, is one place where people are nourishing farms and gardens with urban compost, reducing the problems and costs of waste management while growing food. People in Rosario’s Empalme Graneros, a villa miseria or slum, separate organic waste from trash they collect, compost it, and sell it as fertilizer or use it on their own gardens.49 While composting offers a natural link between sanitation and agriculture, some cities in Latin America have introduced a State of the World 2003 UNITING DIVIDED CITIES “human-made” way of connecting the two. Since 1991, Curitiba, Brazil, a city whose metropolitan region includes some 2.5 million people, has taken the money it would have paid waste collectors to fetch garbage from hard-to-reach slums and has spent it instead on food from local farms on the urban periphery. For every bag of garbage brought to a waste collection site, a low-income family gets a bag of locally grown vegetables and fruits. In Juiz de Fora, a city of about 600,000 inhabitants in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais, families receive a liter of milk for each 10 kilograms (22 pounds) of garbage.50 In the first global survey of urban agriculture for the U.N. Development Programme, Jac Smit and colleagues at The Urban Agriculture Network estimated that 800 million urban farmers harvest 15 percent of the world’s food supply in a variety of ways, from growing vegetables on rooftops or in market gardens on vacant plots to raising fish in wastewater filtered through aquatic plants. Tilapia and carp cultivated this way in Calcutta provide safe food and a source of income. In Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, policies to promote urban agriculture have been in place since 1982; today, some 90 percent of leafy vegetables come from urban agriculture, which employs 20 percent of residents, ranking as the city’s second largest source of employment. To bring more poor people into urban agriculture, city governments worldwide could include space for farmers’ markets in land use plans, grant temporary leases for gardens in vacant lots, link urban farmers to sources of credit, and promote organic farming methods that use local compost and eliminate the need for chemical fertilizers and pesticides.51 Other municipal decisions that affect the job prospects of the poor include those concerning transportation and land use. Whether or not someone can find a job in a city is inor- dinately influenced by the famous real estate maxim: location, location, location. The best locations for people who do not have extra money to spend on transportation are those that are not far from places of business. Zoning laws that separate homes from businesses discriminate against the poor, as do decisions to invest in infrastructure for private cars rather than dedicated bus lanes, cheap paratransit (such as mini-buses), safe pedestrian walkways, or bicycle paths.52 Jeff Maganya, former East Africa Transport Program Manager of the Intermediate Technology Development Group, notes that politicians and policymakers in Nairobi, as in other national capitals, generally have cars themselves and are often out of touch with the transportation realities of Nairobi’s car-less population. “More than 95 percent of money that is meant to tackle transport issues in Kenya goes to motorization, while less than 5 percent of Kenyans actually own cars,” says Maganya. “Most people who make decisions,” he adds, “have only seen bicycles as a pastime, as something they buy for their kids. So bicycles have been seen as recreational things, and have been heavily taxed.” Indeed, for many years, a large fee for registering bicycles prevented poor people from buying them. When Kenya reduced its tax on bicycles from 80 percent to 20 percent between 1986 and 1989, bicycle sales surged by 1,500 percent.53 Curitiba, Brazil, launched a public bus system in the 1970s that showed that giving higher priority to the transport and location needs of the less affluent majority paid citywide dividends—and some other cities in South America have followed suit. In Curitiba, several main roadways radiating from the city’s core serve as express busways. Bus stops are futuristic glass tubes where people pay in advance while protected from the elements, and then quickly step directly 145 State of the World 2003 UNITING DIVIDED CITIES onto the bus without having to walk up steps—all elements of a subway system at a fraction of the cost. Before the buildings along the transportation corridors were fully developed, the city bought up strategic land and set it aside for affordable housing. In 1998, Mayor Enrique Peñalosa started similar transformations in Bogotá, Colombia. The city commissioned a fleet of cleaner, more efficient buses, invited bus operators to bid on them, and gave the buses their own lanes to circumvent traffic. Electronic ticketing makes transferring between buses easier, and satellite-based communication boosts safety, as bus drivers can call for help when needed. Lima, Peru, is planning a similar system, and activists in Santiago, Chile, are also pushing for one.54 A final area where governments could do more to help the survival prospects of the poor is credit. Even in the United States, which has a long tradition of credit, it took a spate of bank mergers in the 1990s to make banks take note of a pioneering 1977 law, the Community Reinvestment Act. This required banks proposing to merge with another company to prove that they had met the credit needs of low-income people in their communities. The effect was dramatic, write Paul Grogan and Tony Proscio in Comeback Cities: “It was as if the flat earth of retail banking had suddenly found its Columbus. Banks by the hundreds were planting new flags in the former terra incognita of the inner city.” Total lending in poor U.S. neighborhoods averaged $3 billion a year between 1977 and 1989; it soared to $43 billion in 1997. 55 Finance is important in slums because the lack of affordable credit prevents people from building infrastructure into poor settlements from the beginning. In much the same way that intermediate forms of tenure may offer people enough security to improve their living conditions, smaller-scale financial insti146 tutions may allow people to take a step toward working themselves out of poverty. From India to Brazil, small-scale lending or “microcredit” is growing in significance as a source of loans for shelter and small business in poor urban neighborhoods. (See Table 7–2.)56 Just as titling programs might not be a practical first step in securing tenure for many people, a loan is a long shot for most of the world’s urban poor. People need to be able to document their solvency before they can contemplate taking out a loan. For this reason, Shack/Slum Dwellers International makes group efforts to save money the cornerstone of its approach. In South Africa, slum communities that have joined the South African Homeless People’s Federation have established savings groups. They pooled their savings to start a revolving loan fund, which opened for business in 1995 and attracted the support of the South African government. Slum residents in Cambodia, India, the Philippines, Thailand, and Zimbabwe have launched similar savings groups. Assessing the results of community-savings schemes worldwide, one analyst concludes that “when money goes into community savings, it circulates many times—helping build houses and start small businesses; helping people in crisis; paying school fees and doctor’s bills— generating more assets and options for people’s future.” 57 Opening Up City Hall Finding ways for poor people to feel secure in their homes and make a living are things governments should place at the top of their “to do” lists—but too often do not. Opportunities to meet the needs of the poorest urban residents while making cities more verdant and vibrant places are rarely seized, as the wealthy, even if a small minority, have greater political power, especially when politicians State of the World 2003 UNITING DIVIDED CITIES Table 7–2. Selected Microfinance Institutions Operating in Slums Self-Employed Women’s Association (SEWA) Bank,Ahmedabad, India SEWA, which started in 1972, opened a bank in 1974. It now has 35,936 clients and nearly $11 million in outstanding loans, half of which are for housing.All SEWA members are self-employed women, and 70 percent live in urban Ahmedabad.They make monthly savings deposits, held as lien against defaults, and have a 96 percent repayment rate.The municipal government and the private sector match savings of SEWA members to provide infrastructure in slums through the Parivartan slum upgrading project, which has helped reduce serious illness in slums. Payatas Scavengers’ Association Savings and Loan, Quezon City, Philippines The association started in 1993, and loans began in 1997. It has 5,953 clients and $1.3 million in outstanding loans. Payatas is a village of 300,000 on a 15-hectare municipal dump outside Manila. Scavengers’ association members are wastepickers in the bottom 30 percent of the national income distribution.About 80 percent use their homes, made of scavenged building materials, for sorting trash to sell, reuse, or recycle. Members make weekly savings deposits and can take out loans for small businesses, land, or housing. Women receive 98 percent of all the housing loans.The government has asked the Payatas community to consult on housing issues. uTshani Fund, for members of the Homeless People’s Federation, South Africa The organization started in 1990, and began loans in 1995. It has 70,000 clients and $2.7 million in outstanding loans. Homeless People’s Federation members are shack dwellers in the bottom 20 percent of national income distribution. Some 80 percent live in cities and 15 percent in peri-urban areas; 60 percent use their home for sewing, selling fruit, carpentry, or other micro-enterprises. Some 10 percent of members are homeless and 60 percent live on land with no secure title, which is needed to receive housing subsidies from the South African government.An NGO called People’s Dialogue helps members secure title and receive the subsidies, while uTshani provides loans.There is a repayment rate of 95 percent for enterprise loans and 93 percent for housing loans.Women receive 90 percent of loans, and all the housing loans. Banco Palmas, Palmeira District, Fortaleza, Brazil The institution started in 1998 and had 900 clients as of 2001. Palmeira is a favela of 30,000, including 1,200 street children.With an initial loan of 2,000 reales from an NGO, the Palmeira Residents Association started Banco Palmas to guarantee micro-loans with low interest rates without proof of income (neighbors serve as guarantors of good credit) and to issue credit cards, which are now used by more than 500 families. Between 1998 and 2000, local business sales increased by 30 percent and generated 80 new jobs. Bank clients have worked through a solidarity network to pave streets, clean drainage canals, and construct a school. Some 65 percent of all bank clients are women. SOURCE: See endnote 56. can be bribed. Since the 1990s, poor people have gained some measure of political power as slum dwellers have united within cities and even across national borders, as a number of Brazilian cities have opened city budget decisions to public scrutiny, and as various cities worldwide have started to truly engage citi- zens in setting local priorities. National governments and international agencies must do more to support these efforts to open up city halls around the world.58 In 2002, Patrick McAuslan, an expert on urban land law at the University of London, reflected on his decades of experience advis147 State of the World 2003 UNITING DIVIDED CITIES ing policymakers: “I began to wonder whether one of the problems that we’ve had in dealing with land issues is that we’ve never addressed sufficiently the politics of land. The fact is that the current land tenure situation generally accommodates the elites.” McAuslan also noted: “I think the single most important thing is to ensure that the poor have a voice.”59 Government corruption not only muffles the voices of slum residents, it also exacts a price. “When you take a complaint to a local authority employed by the government,” says Isaac Mburu, who lives in Nairobi’s Mtumba slum, “if you go without cash, you won’t be served.” A recent study by Transparency International–Kenya found that 67 percent of the interactions that people had with public officials required bribes, but that the poorest and least educated encountered bribery in 75 percent of their interactions with public institutions. “Corruption is a tax on the poor,” says Transparency International’s Michael Lippe.60 The emergence of Shack/Slum Dwellers International and the national federations of slum dwellers that constitute it have helped to amplify the concerns of poor urban residents. In Phnom Penh, Cambodia, to take just one example, poor people formed the Solidarity and Urban Poor Federation in 1994 to save money and convince the municipal government to stop evicting people from informal settlements. Through SDI, sidewalk slum dwellers from Mumbai helped Phomn Penh’s poor start their first savings groups. Pooling $5,000 in savings that attracted matching funds from aid agencies, in 1998 the Cambodians opened a fund that provides loans for housing and small businesses and that has served 1,500 families so far. Today, the government has stopped evictions and works with the federation to secure alternative land for families displaced by development 148 projects.61 Another positive sign comes from Brazil, where local authorities have pioneered “participatory budgeting.” Several municipalities tried different approaches to consulting more actively with their constituents in the 1970s and 1980s. Then, in 1988, a new national constitution devolved more power to subnational governments and introduced several instruments that could be adopted at the local level, including participatory budgeting—a process that requires elected officials to engage citizens in setting public priorities and to show clearly how funds will be allocated, bringing democracy closer to the people.62 Porto Alegre, a city of 1.3 million in the south of Brazil, began to gain international fame after it adopted participatory budgeting in 1989. In the early 1990s, Brazil was rocked by scandals that pointed to private money buying political influence and public funds being used for politicians’ private enjoyment at every turn. In 1992, President Collor was impeached on charges of influence peddling and graft; in 1993, the same lawmakers that had hounded Collor came under fire themselves for taking bribes to dole out federal funds to construction companies, charities, and municipal governments; and in 1994, politicians were among those implicated in a major organized crime ring. The huge gulch between rich and poor—the wealthiest 10 percent of Brazil claims 48 percent of the nation’s output, whereas the poorest 10 percent has less than 1 percent—only heightened public outrage. Yet in the midst of all this, Porto Alegre was trying to change its local politics so that votes would mean more than bribes.63 Local officials in Porto Alegre now present information about the city budget in a first round of public meetings in each of 16 districts. More than half the budget typically State of the World 2003 UNITING DIVIDED CITIES goes to salaries of city employees, while other funds may be earmarked to service municipal debt. The share that is set aside for infrastructure to be determined through the participatory process varies from city to city and year to year, but it is generally 10–20 percent of Porto Alegre’s total budget. After the initial assembly, each neighborhood within each district holds an open meeting to rank their most pressing needs—for instance, do they need better water supply or a paved road first? 64 Then the jockeying for specific projects begins in earnest. In a second round of district meetings, citizens elect delegates to represent their district on a city-wide budget council. These representatives take the neighborhood concerns and negotiate among themselves to agree on district-wide priority lists to bring to the municipal budget council. That council, which also has members elected in city-wide elections, then decides how to distribute funds among districts.65 This experiment has amplified the voices of Porto Alegre’s poor. Between 1992 and 2002, citizens have directed more than $700 million to needed projects. A survey done after the first year of participatory budgeting revealed that most of the city’s poor people wanted clean water and toilets, whereas the government previously assumed that their top priority was public transport. Today, 85 percent of the city has sewer connections, compared with 46 percent in 1989. Street paving is another high priority in the poorest neighborhoods; 30 kilometers of streets are now paved, drained, and lighted each year.66 In 1994, another Brazilian city, Belo Horizonte, took the same basic approach, adapting it over time to the particular concerns of its residents. Once district representatives are elected in Belo Horizonte, for instance, they take a district-wide bus tour to see firsthand the top priorities identified by each neigh- borhood and to get a better sense of the relative needs in each place. Housing quickly emerged as a priority of many neighborhoods, and the issue was popularized by the Homeless Movement. In response, the city created an additional participatory budgeting process to address housing needs, allocating about $8 million in 2001–02.67 Porto Alegre was trying to change its local politics so that votes would mean more than bribes. Today, people in more than 140 cities in Brazil are benefiting from participatory budgeting. In July 2001, the government enacted a national City Statute that requires municipalities to include citizens in urban planning and management through participatory budgeting, among other measures. Only a bit of the budget is up for grabs, and invariably more needs are identified than there is cash to address them. But the process does get important issues on the agenda and thwarts corruption. Even if only a small share of a city’s budget is open to the participatory process, local authorities have to explain where the rest of the money is going.68 Another way that some local governments have been engaging citizens is by adopting a local version of the Agenda 21 for environment and development that national leaders endorsed at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio. At the urging of an association of local authorities, the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI), delegates in Rio included the goal that “by 1996, most local authorities in each country should have undertaken a consultative process with their population and achieved a consensus on a Local Agenda 21.” 69 To draft a Local Agenda 21, each gov149 State of the World 2003 UNITING DIVIDED CITIES ernment must consult extensively with citizens to survey existing social, economic, and environmental conditions and to draft a list of local priorities. By 1996, some 2,000 municipalities worldwide had introduced some version of a Local Agenda 21, and by 2002 the figure reached 6,416 local governments in 113 countries. Mayors in mostly northern countries initially dominated the effort, with Leicester in the United Kingdom and Hamilton-Wentworth in Canada being early pioneers, but southern cities are now emerging as strong leaders. For example, once citizens became engaged in Porto Alegre’s budgeting, the city revamped its environmental planning to include greater citizen involvement. Manizales in Colombia and Nakuru in Kenya are also showing the way.70 Mayors, local leaders, and citizens are very much on the front lines of reconciling the needs of poor people for a better standard of living with the health of the environment— and they need support from their national governments. In 2001, local authorities engaged in developing Local Agenda 21s with their citizens identified three areas where they could use such help: sufficient funds to implement new efforts; political support by heads of state and other national leaders; and revision of a wide variety of national taxes, regulations, and standards to reward sustainable development practices. By granting more power to local governments while allowing citizens to elect local officials, some national governments have allowed the poor to have more say than ever before. Richard Stren, Director of the Centre for Urban and Community Studies at the University of Toronto, points to national laws enacted by Brazil, India, the Philippines, and South Africa in the last decade or so that have helped open up city halls.71 A whole chapter of South Africa’s 1996 constitution focuses on local government 150 and has opened the way for more inclusive governance in Johannesburg and all its cities. In 1999, Johannesburg’s local government laid out a three-year plan, iGoli 2002, to begin to make up for the imbalances between services afforded to wealthy white neighborhoods and poor black townships that became entrenched through years of apartheid. While the plan represents a step forward, a great deal of debate has centered on whether services will be provided by government or private contractors, and it is still too early to measure success.72 International agencies could also be more effective advocates for the urban poor. One challenge the World Bank has in supporting urban development is that its negotiations have to be with national, not local, governments. In February 2002, the Bank solicited the advice of Jane Jacobs on this point. Jacobs rose to prominence in the 1960s by analyzing policymakers’ approach to slums in the United States, but much of what she observed 40 years ago in New York City resonates with people familiar with slums in many other parts of the world today. Writing in The Death and Life of Great American Cities in 1961, for example, she noted: “Conventional planning approaches to slums and slum dwellers are thoroughly paternalistic. The trouble with paternalists is that they want to make impossibly profound changes, and they choose impossibly superficial means for doing so. To overcome slums, we must regard slum dwellers as people capable of understanding and acting upon their own self-interests, which they certainly are. We need to discern, respect, and build upon the forces for regeneration in real cities. This is far from trying to patronize people into a better life, and it is far from what is done today.” 73 When queried by the World Bank in 2002, Jacobs similarly pulled no punches: “If you really are serious about supporting cities, you State of the World 2003 UNITING DIVIDED CITIES should be able to lend directly to cities and negotiate directly with them….If you are intimidated into dealing only with national governments, your intended help for cities will be inefficient at best and perhaps self-defeating.” With the formation of the Cities Alliance mentioned earlier, the World Bank is still not lending directly to local governments, but it has taken an important step toward building stronger relationships with them.74 International agencies can lend some measure of political support by bringing local authorities to the table to figure out how to make urban development work for people and the planet. There is no legally binding treaty that compels nations to improve the living conditions of their cities while at the same time reducing the demands that urban areas make on Earth’s resources. But in 1976, in Vancouver, delegates from national governments did zero in on the role of human settlements in the international push to reconcile environmental and development concerns. Twenty years later, at a Cities Summit in Istanbul, hundreds of local governments and NGOs joined representatives of 171 countries in endorsing a Habitat Agenda to work toward a better urban future.75 The United Nations agency charged with carrying out the Habitat Agenda is UNHABITAT. For much of the 1990s it struggled without a permanent head, solid management, or stable funding to raise the profile of its twin goals: to ensure adequate shelter for all people and to make cities, towns, and villages greener and more equitable places to live. But in the twenty-first century, UN-HABITAT has turned a corner, led by a charismatic new Executive Director, Anna Tibaijuka, who has inspired the confidence of national governments to give the organization needed funds.76 For local authorities, the run-up to the World Summit on Sustainable Development held in Johannesburg in August-September 2002 was somewhat similar to the reception they received in Rio 10 years earlier. The fact that local authorities and NGOs were engaged at all in the talks was a big step forward. But UN-HABITAT, ICLEI, and other advocates of good urban governance faced an uphill battle in trying to focus national leaders on the importance of cities to the future of sustainable development. They had to fight to include in official documents acknowledgement of the important role that cities could, should, and must play in charting a course for development that takes into account the needs of the poorest as well as the finite capacity of the planet.77 South Africa’s 1996 constitution focuses on local government and has opened the way for more inclusive governance in all its cities. But if the negotiations and discussions at the World Summit were not as useful as they could have been for local governance and the role of cities, the backdrop of Johannesburg, South Africa, provided a compelling image of a divided city that had thrown off the yoke of apartheid—and might, just possibly, begin to unite itself and chart a course for urban development that put its poorest people and their need for a healthy environment first. In the coming decades, with most of the world’s people living in cities for the first time in history and at least one in six people mired in extreme poverty, uniting divided cities will become an even greater global challenge. To rise to the task, governments must combat corruption and open city halls up to all their citizens, especially the poorest ones. 151 Chapter 8 Engaging Religion in the Quest for a Sustainable World Gary Gardner As the U.S. debate over drilling for oil in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) gathered steam in early 2002, an unusual ad appeared on television. Over magnificent shots of seacoasts, forests, and mountains, the narrator intones a Jewish prayer in which God says, “This is a beautiful world I have given you. Take care of it; do not ruin it.” The ad then argues against drilling in ANWR, and proposes that America’s energy needs be met through conservation, higher fuel efficiency standards, and greater use of solar and wind power. Perhaps the most arresting statement is the last one: “Brought to you by the Sierra Club and the National Council of Churches.” 1 The teaming of a prominent U.S. environmental organization and a coalition of mainline Christian churches is especially surprising because environmentalists and people of faith An expanded version of this chapter appeared as Worldwatch Paper 164, Invoking the Spirit: Religion and Spirituality in the Quest for a Sustainable World. 152 have had limited contact since the start of the modern environmental movement. Nevertheless, it may represent an emerging trend. Spiritual traditions—from large, centralized religions to local tribal spiritual authorities— are beginning to devote energy to what some see as the defining challenge of our age: the need to build just and environmentally healthy societies. Worldwide, the major faiths are issuing declarations, advocating for new national policies, and designing educational activities in support of a sustainable world—sometimes in partnership with secular environmental organizations such as the Sierra Club, sometimes on their own. Responding to the global crisis, smaller traditions are reviving ancient rituals and practices in the service of sustainability. The quickening of religious interest in environmental issues suggests that a powerful new political alignment may be emerging that could greatly strengthen the effort to build a sustainable world. The budding rapprochement of religious and environmental groups could be of historic significance. Should it blossom, it could help State of the World 2003 ENGAGING RELIGION IN THE QUEST FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD heal the centuries-old rift in the West between religion and the sciences (including economics and other social sciences). These two streams of thought have diverged since the European enlightenment, as science has gradually replaced religion as the authoritative source for some of humanity’s grandest questions, such as how the universe was formed. In the process, however, the scientific focus on writing an objective story about “what is” was achieved largely without reference to the emotive story of “what ought to be,” a traditional strength of religion. (See Box 8–1.) By the twentieth century, industrial societies in particular were strongly oriented to the cognitive, the rational, and the logical, with devastating consequences: science, largely unrestrained by ethics (whether from religion or anywhere else), helped to deliver the most violent and most environmentally damaging century in human history. 2 Our civilization’s challenge is to reintegrate our societal heart and head, to reestablish spirituality as a partner in dialogue with science. To accomplish this, the two groups will need to surmount the suspicion and misunderstanding that have kept them at arm’s length for at least 40 years. The checkered history of religious involvement in societal affairs—multiple episodes of warfare, oppression, intolerance, and hypocrisy—is commonly cited by environmentalists as a reason to avoid engagement with religion, even among those who acknowledge the selflessness and the passionate defense of marginalized people that are a major part of religious history. While acknowledging its shortcomings, the religious community can rightly claim enormous capacity for self-reform. At the same time, the environmental community has often alienated potential allies with what is perceived as scientific aloofness, even self-righteousness. Its “left-brain” approach to its work is partly to blame for its BOX 8–1. WHAT IS RELIGION? A single, authoritative definition of religion remains elusive, despite religion’s status as one of the oldest of human institutions. Still, several characteristics common to many definitions can help to stake out the rough boundaries of the discipline. In the most general terms, religion is an orientation to the cosmos and to our role in it. It offers people a sense of ultimate meaning and the possibility for personal transformation and celebration of life.To this end it uses a range of resources, including worldviews, symbols, rituals, ethical norms, traditions, and (sometimes) institutional structures. Religion also offers a means of experiencing a sustaining creative force, whether as a creator deity, an awe-inspiring presence in nature, or simply the source of all life. Many of these characteristics give religion substantial influence over the environment.Worldviews shape attitudes toward the natural world; rituals have been used to govern resource use, especially among indigenous peoples; ethics influences resource use and distribution; and institutional power can be wielded in ways that have an impact on the environment. SOURCE: See endnote 2. inability to connect with greater numbers of people, to inspire profound commitment on a large scale. Given the central place of culture in national development—and the central place of religion in most cultures—a sustainable world cannot effectively be built without full engagement of the human spirit. But with great effort, the two communities can bring about a historic reconciliation and generate the societal energy needed to sustain the planet and its people.3 153 State of the World 2003 ENGAGING RELIGION IN THE QUEST FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD The Potential Power of Engaged Religion Religious institutions and leaders can bring at least five strong assets to the effort to build a sustainable world: the capacity to shape cosmologies (worldviews), moral authority, a large base of adherents, significant material resources, and community-building capacity. Religions are experienced at informing our perspectives on issues of ultimate concern. They know how to inspire people and how to wield moral authority. Many have the political clout associated with a huge base of adherents. Some have considerable real estate holdings, buildings, and financial resources. And most produce strong community ties by generating social resources such as trust and cooperation, which can be a powerful boost to community development. Many political movements would welcome any of these five assets. To be endowed with most or all of them, as many religions are, is to hold considerable political power. Indeed, religion is an important source of change within individuals and across societies. Cultural historian Thomas Berry sees religion as one of the major societal drivers of change in the world, along with education, business, and government. And a recent textbook on psychology and the natural environment lists religion as one of four key sources of individual behavior change throughout history. Indeed, major societal changes of recent decades support these assertions. The Nicaraguan revolution (which was strongly supported by proponents of “liberation theology”), the U.S. civil rights movement led by the Reverend Martin Luther King and energized by thousands of religious supporters, and the Shi’ite-inspired Iranian revolution are just a few societal-level changes in the twentieth century that were strongly 154 influenced or led by religious institutions or people of faith. Meanwhile, the global boycott of Nestlé products in the 1970s in response to the company’s aggressive marketing of baby formula is an example of individual (consumer) behavior change that was strongly bolstered by religious groups.4 The first key asset that religion brings to bear on societal change is the capacity to provide meaning for a person’s life by shaping the individual’s cosmology—the fundamental philosophical grounding out of which a person lives his or her life. A cosmology offers answers to the most profound questions human beings ask: Who am I? Why am I here? What are my obligations to the world around me? Cosmologies are typically expressed in the form of stories—tools of communication that can engage people at a deep, affective level. The creation stories of many religious traditions, for example, offer ways of interpreting not only the origin of the universe, but peoples’ place and purpose in it as well. Thus cosmologies give rise to ethics because they help people to understand their relationship with each other and, in some traditions, their relationship to the natural world. (See Box 8–2.) The capacity to influence cosmology therefore translates into influence over ethics and, in turn, over behavior.5 Religious cosmologies regarding the natural environment are diverse, and the broad range of teachings might suggest that some religions are naturally “greener” than others. But the reality is more complex. Nearly all religions can be commended and criticized for one aspect or another of their posture toward the environment. A religion’s environmental credentials may depend on whether its teaching, its practice, or its potential for “greening” itself is being assessed. And scholars see great potential for developing environmental ethics even within traditions that have lacked them.6 Religion’s capacity to provide meaning is State of the World 2003 ENGAGING RELIGION IN THE QUEST FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD BOX 8–2. RELIGIOUS PERSPECTIVES ON NATURE In the three western monotheistic traditions— Judaism, Christianity, and Islam—morality has traditionally been human-focused, with nature being of secondary importance and with God transcending the natural world.Thus the natural world can be seen as a set of resources for human use, a perspective that some observers blame for the wasteful and destructive development of the past two centuries. Yet scholars in each of these traditions find substantial grounds for building a strong environmental ethics.The Judaic concept of a covenant or legal agreement between God and humanity, for example, can be extended to all of creation.The Christian focus on sacrament and incarnation are seen as lenses through which the entire natural world can be viewed as sacred.And the Islamic concept of viceregency teaches that the natural world is not owned by humans but is given to them in trust—a trust that implies certain responsibilities to preserve the balance of creation. Hinduism and Buddhism in South Asia contain teachings concerning the natural world that are arguably in conflict. Some scholars in these traditions emphasize the illusory nature of the material world and the desirability of escaping suffering by turning to a timeless world of spirit, in the case of Hinduism, or by seeking release in nirvana, in the case of some meditative schools of Buddhism.This otherworldly orientation, some scholars argue, minimizes the importance of environmental degradation. On the other hand, both religions place great emphasis on correct conduct and on fulfillment of duty, which often includes obligations to environmental preservation. Thus Hindus regard rivers as sacred, and in the concept of lila, the creative play of the gods, Hindu theology engages the world as a creative manifestation of the divine. Meanwhile, Buddhist environmentalists often stress the importance of trees in the life of the Buddha, and “socially engaged” Buddhism in Asia and the United States is active in environ- mental protection, especially of forests. The East Asian traditions of Confucianism and Taoism seamlessly link the divine, human, and natural worlds.The divine is not seen as transcendent; instead, Earth’s fecundity is seen as continuously unfolding through nature’s movements across the seasons and through human workings in the cycles of agriculture. This organic worldview is centered around the concept of ch’i, the dynamic, material force that infuses the natural and human worlds, unifying matter and spirit. Confucianists and Taoists seek to live in harmony with nature and with other human beings, while paying attention to the movements of the Tao, the Way. Despite the affinity of these traditions with an environmental ethic, however, deforestation, pollution, and other forms of environmental degradation have become widespread in contemporary East Asia due to many factors, including rapid industrialization and the decline of traditional values in the last 50 years with the spread of Communism. Finally, indigenous traditions, closely tied to their local bioregion for food and for materials for clothing, shelter, and cultural activities, tend to have their environmental ethics embedded in their worldviews. Gratitude for the fecundity of nature is a common feature of their cultures. Ritual calendars are often derived from the cycles of nature, such as the appearance of the sun or moon, or the seasonal return of certain animals or plants. Indigenous traditions often have a very light environmental footprint compared with industrial societies. Still, many indigenous traditions recall times of environmental degradation in their mythologies. Since the colonial period, the efforts of indigenous people to live sustainably in their homelands have been hurt by the encroachment of settlements and by logging, mining, and other forms of resource exploitation. SOURCE: See endnote 5. 155 State of the World 2003 ENGAGING RELIGION IN THE QUEST FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD rooted deep in the human psyche. This capacity is often expressed through symbols, rituals, myths, and other practices that work at the level of affect. These speak to us from a primal place, a place where we “know” in a subconscious way. Ritual, for example—the repeated patterns of activity that carry the often inexpressible meaning of human experience—is a deep form of communication that is tapped by both religious and secular leaders. A president or prime minister singing the national anthem at a sporting event, hand over heart, is engaging in powerful ritualistic behavior that speaks to compatriots in a profound way. Because religious and spiritual traditions have needed tools to express spiritual concepts that are well beyond the capacity of language to convey, they have for millennia turned to ritual for help.7 Ritual communication, it turns out, has also had an important role in environmental protection among traditional societies. Where resources have been managed well, the credit often goes to “religious or ritual representation of resource management,” according to cultural ecologist E. N. Anderson. Before stripping bark from cedar trees, for instance, the Tlingit Indians of the Pacific Northwest perform a ritual apology to the spirits they believe live there, promising to take only what they need. Among the Tsembaga people of New Guinea, pig festivals, ritual pig slaughters, and pig-eating ceremonies play a key role in maintaining ecological balance, redistributing land and pigs among people, and ensuring that the neediest are the first to receive limited supplies of pork. Rituals such as these are often dismissed as superstition by modern peoples, yet anthropologists assert that skilled use of ritual made many traditional societies far more successful in caring for their environment than industrial societies have been. The key, says Anderson, is traditional societies’ understanding that ritual 156 helps people make emotional connections with the natural world, connections that industrial societies are slow to make.8 Growing out of the religion’s capacity to shape worldview is a second asset: the capacity to inspire and wield moral authority. This is a subtle asset, easily overlooked. Asked in 1935 if the Pope might prove to be an ally of the Soviet Union, Josef Stalin is said to have replied scornfully, “The Pope? How many divisions has he got?” The dictator’s response betrays a dim understanding of the power that accrues to persons and organizations skilled in appealing to the depths of the human spirit. Ironically, papal influence exercised through the Solidarity protest movement in Poland in the early 1980s was an important factor in the eventual unraveling of Communist rule in Eastern Europe. Similarly, the Dalai Lama strongly affects Chinese government policy toward Tibet, even though he has lived in exile since 1959. Charisma and moral suasion are not the exclusive reserve of religious leaders, of course, but religious leaders have extensive experience in spiritual matters, and understand well the power inherent in touching people at the level of spirit.9 Turning to the more worldly assets, a third source of power for religions is the sheer number of followers they claim. Although only estimates are available, it seems that some 80–90 percent of people on the planet belong to one of the world’s 10,000 or so religions, with 150 or so of these faith traditions having at least a million followers each. Adherents of the three largest—Christianity, Islam, and Hinduism— account for about two thirds of the global population today. Another 20 percent of the world subscribes to the remaining religions, and about 15 percent of people are nonreligious. (See Table 8–1.) 10 Degrees of adherence among the billions State of the World 2003 ENGAGING RELIGION IN THE QUEST FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD Table 8–1. Major Religions: Number of Adherents and Share of World Population, 2000 Adherents Share of World Population (million) (percent) Christianity Islam Hinduism Confucianism and Chinese folk religion Buddhism Indigenous religions Sikhism Judaism Spiritualism Bahá’í faith Jainism Shintoism Taoism Zoroastrianism 2,000 1,188 752 33.0 19.6 12.4 Total 4,988 Religion SOURCE: See 391 360 228 23 14 12 7 4 3 3 3 6.5 5.9 3.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.05 0.05 0.05 82.4 endnote 10. of religious people vary greatly, of course, as does the readiness of adherents to translate their faith into political action or lifestyle choices. And many believers within the same religion or denomination may interpret their faith in conflicting ways, leading them to act at cross-purposes. But the raw numbers are so impressive that mobilizing even a fraction of adherents to the cause of building a just and environmentally healthy society could advance the sustainability agenda dramatically. Adding nonreligious but spiritually oriented people to the totals boosts the potential for influence even more. Influence stemming from having a large number of followers is further enhanced by the geographic concentration of many religions, which increases their ability to make mass appeals and to coordinate action. In 120 countries, for example, Christians form the majority of the population. Muslims are the majority in 45 countries, and Buddhists are in 9. When most people in a society have similar worldviews, leaders can make mass appeals using a single, values-laden language. Pakistan did this in 2001 when, as a result of the National Conservation Strategy, the government enlisted Muslim clergy in the North West Frontier Province to launch an environmental awareness campaign based on teachings from the Koran. Government leaders and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) saw the religious leaders as a critical part of their mass awareness campaign, given their broad presence in the country and the fact that in some regions more people go to mosques than to schools.11 Of course, size is not always the most important determinant of the potential to help shape a sustainable world. Indigenous traditions, typically small in number, often possess great wisdom on how to live in harmony with nature. Most have an intimate knowledge of their local bioregion, which in turn is the source of revelation, ritual, and collective memory for them. And their worldviews tend to integrate the temporal and spiritual realms. Although the stereotype of indigenous people as good stewards of their resource base is overstated, specialists in religion and ecology see indigenous cultures as having an especially small environmental footprint, as well as rituals of reciprocity and respect for nature. These characteristics give them particular moral relevance that can be an important source of knowledge and inspiration in building a sustainable world.12 The fourth asset that many religions can bring to the effort is substantial physical and financial resources. Real estate holdings alone are impressive. The Alliance of Religions and Conservation (ARC), an NGO based in the United Kingdom, estimates that religions 157 State of the World 2003 ENGAGING RELIGION IN THE QUEST FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD own up to 7 percent of the habitable area of the world. And buildings abound: Pakistan has one mosque for every 30 households; the United States has one house of worship for every 900 residents. In addition, clinics, schools, orphanages, and other religiously run social institutions give religious organizations a network of opportunities to shape development efforts. A large share of schools are run by religions, especially in developing countries. Confucian and Indian Vedic health care make important religious contributions to the health systems of China and India. And in the United States, the largest provider of social services after the federal government is the Catholic Church.13 The pace of meetings and collaborations among religious and environmental groups has increased markedly since 1986. While headlines regularly expose the less than ethical use of religious wealth, some exemplary cases illustrate the impact that religious institutions could have in helping to nudge the world toward sustainability. In the United States, the Interfaith Center for Corporate Responsibility (ICCR), representing 275 Protestant, Catholic, and Jewish institutional investors, has been a leader for more than three decades in shaping corporate operating policies through the use of social policy shareholder resolutions. More than half of all socially oriented shareholder resolutions filed in the United States in the past three years were filed or co-filed by religious groups; on more than a third of them, religious groups were the primary filers. This role has caught the attention of secular activists on corporate responsibility. “One of the first things we do when we run a campaign is make sure that the ICCR is on board,” says Tracey 158 Rembert of the Shareholder Action Network, which advocates ethical investing and shareholder action.14 Finally, religion has a particular capacity to generate social capital: the bonds of trust, communication, cooperation, and information dissemination that create strong communities. Development economists began to recognize in the 1970s and 1980s that economic development is fueled not just by stocks of land, labor, and financial capital but also by education (human capital) and healthy ecosystems (ecological capital). By the 1990s, many theorists added social capital (community building) to the list because of its importance as a lubricant and glue in many communities: it greases the wheels of communication and interaction, which in turn strengthens the bonds that community members have with one another.15 While social capital is built by a broad range of groups in civil society, from political parties to civic clubs and hobby groups, religion is especially influential. Religions are present throughout most societies, including in the most difficult to reach rural areas. They tend to bring people together frequently, and they encourage members to help one another as well as the dispossessed. Perhaps most important, the beliefs shared among members are an especially strong unifying force. “Sacred meaning is one of the deepest bonding forces societies possess,” notes Mary Clark, a writer on historical change. Moreover, she adds, where sacred meaning is absent, societies tend to disintegrate.16 Data from the United States support this interpretation of religion as community builder. Analyzing survey data, sociologist Andrew Greeley showed that religious institutions or persons, which are responsible for 34 percent of all volunteerism in the United States, generated volunteers not just for religious work but for other society-building State of the World 2003 ENGAGING RELIGION IN THE QUEST FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD efforts as well. About a third of the educational, political, youth, and human services voluntarism, about a quarter of the healthrelated voluntarism, and about a fifth of the employment-related volunteer work was undertaken by people motivated by their faith. The willingness to work for societal betterment, not just for the particular interests of a religious group, holds potential for the movement to build a sustainable world, especially because the environment is an issue of common concern for the planet and for future generations that transcends religious and national differences.17 Cooperation and Caution As deforestation, climate change, water shortages, extensive poverty, and other global ills have assumed greater prominence in the public mind, and as the religious and environmental communities increasingly appreciate their common interest in combating these problems, the two communities have begun to work together on the agenda of sustainable development. The trend is hopeful and could represent the budding emergence of a powerful new alliance for sustainability. But significant obstacles to cooperation also exist, and these must be managed well if the full engagement of earth and spirit is to be realized. On the positive side, the pace of meetings and collaborations among religious and environmental groups has increased markedly since the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) sponsored an interreligious meeting in Assisi, Italy, in 1986 that brought together representatives of five of the world’s major religions. That seminal meeting was followed by other major conferences and important initiatives, both between the two communities and among religious traditions. (See Table 8–2.) Some of the initiatives have blossomed into networks: the National Religious Partnership for the Environment in the United States and the Alliance for Religions and Conservation in the United Kingdom bring together diverse faith groups to plan strategies for raising awareness and taking action on environmental issues. The increased activity and commitment represented by the initiatives suggests that environmentalism is not just a passing fad for religious groups.18 One development of particular note was a 10-part conference series on world religions and ecology held at Harvard University’s Center for the Study of World Religions from 1996 to 1998. The series brought together the most diverse spectrum of individuals and institutions ever convened on the topic, with more than 800 scholars and environmental activists from major religious traditions and from six continents participating. The conferences are noteworthy not only for the scholarship they produced—nine volumes on environmentalism from the perspective of major religious traditions, with another forthcoming—but also for their extensive engagement of people from outside of religion and religious studies. Scientists, ethicists, educators, and public policymakers all took an active part. A culminating conference was held at the American Museum of Natural History, and the United Nations Environment Programme hosted conference organizers for their press briefing announcing the conferences’ findings. Perhaps most significant for the religion/environment dialogue, the Forum on Religion and Ecology (the follow-on organization to the conferences) is housed at Harvard’s Center for the Environment, so that scholars of religious traditions can be in continuing contact with environmental scientists and policymakers.19 Despite the many laudable advances, serious obstacles remain to more extensive religious/environmental collaboration. These 159 State of the World 2003 ENGAGING RELIGION IN THE QUEST FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD Table 8–2. Religious Initiatives and Partnerships on Environment and Sustainability Description Initiatives World Wide Fund for Nature conference, Assisi, Italy, 1986 In the first major meeting of its kind, representatives of five of the world’s faiths discuss strategies for helping their communities to assist in protecting the environment. World Council of Churches (WCC) Climate Change Programme, 1988 The WCC creates a program to lobby governments and international organizations to fundamentally reorient “the socioeconomic structures and personal lifestyles” that have led to the current climate change crisis. Global Forum of Spiritual and Parliamentary Leaders, 1988, 1990, 1992, and 1993 In their 1990 statement, 32 globally renowned scientists appeal to the world religious community “to commit, in word and deed, and boldly as is required, to preserve the environment of the Earth.” Parliament of World Religions, 1993 and 1999 Commemorating the first Parliament in 1893, representatives of the world’s religions gather and issue declarations on ethics regarding global issues, from environmental degradation to violations of human rights. Summit on Religion and Environment, Windsor, England, 1995 Hosted by Prince Phillip, leaders of nine world religions, along with secular leaders, gather to discuss implementation plans for religion-based conservation projects. The conference results in the creation of the Alliance of Religions and Conservation. Harvard conferences on Religions of the World and Ecology, 1996–98 Some 800 scholars from a broad range of religious traditions do research and outreach work on the religion/ecology connection. Nine volumes, each focusing on a different tradition, are published.The Forum on Religion and Ecology emerges to continue the work. Religion, Science and Environment Symposia, 1994, 1997, 1999, 2002 Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew convenes a series of shipboard symposia focusing on regional water-related environmental issues. The symposia involve scientists, policymakers, religious leaders, and journalists. Millennium World Peace Summit of Religious and Spiritual Leaders, August 2000 More than 1,000 religious leaders meet at the United Nations; environment is a major topic of discussion. U.N. SecretaryGeneral Kofi Annan calls for a new ethic of global stewardship. Sacred Gifts for a Living Planet conference, Nepal, 2000 Organized by WWF and ARC, 11 major religions, representing 4.5 billion people, offered 26 conservation gifts to help improve the environment. International Seminar on Religion, Culture, and Environment,Tehran, Iran, June 2001 Sponsored by the United Nations Environment Programme and the Islamic Republic, conference discusses the importance of fighting environmental degradation.The Seminar culminates in the signing of the Tehran Declaration, which reaffirms commitments made at the Millennium World Peace Summit. SOURCE: See 160 endnote 18. State of the World 2003 ENGAGING RELIGION IN THE QUEST FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD fall into two major categories: mutual misperceptions, and differences in worldview that produce opposing positions on sensitive issues. Today’s misperceptions of religion by environmentalists, and of the environmental movement by people of faith, are manifestations of the centuries-long growing chasm between science and spirituality, a chasm that widened by the twentieth century. Near-mystical writings like those of John Muir, founder of the Sierra Club, which testified to the aweinspiring power of nature, gave way to more scientific analysis. And in recent decades, with the emergence of the agenda that became the sustainability movement (which included the environment, women’s issues, and other areas on which many religions had not been vocal), the gap between the two has at times appeared unbridgeable. In this context, a landmark 1967 essay by historian Lynn White may have helped widen the breach, at least between groups in the United States. White argued that the Judeo-Christian mandate to subdue Earth and to be fruitful and multiply set the philosophical foundation for environmentally destructive industrial development in the Christian West. The claim is controversial and has been strongly critiqued by many religious scholars, not least because White’s argument is founded on just a few lines of scripture. Still, many critics of White acknowledge that parts of the Bible may have helped create an instrumentalist view of nature among Jews and Christians.20 Sierra Club Executive Director Carl Pope takes the critique of White in a different direction, arguing that an entire generation of environmentalists was soured on religion by their skewed reading of White’s essay. He notes that environmentalists have widely ignored the fact that whatever the merits of the critique, White also asserted that religion would need to be part of the solution to the growing environmental crisis. He even ended the essay by suggesting that St. Francis of Assisi, the Tuscan lover of nature and the poor, become the patron saint of ecologists.21 The incomplete reading of White’s essay, Pope argues, gave many environmentalists the belief that religion is the problem, and led many environmental groups to shun religious communities in their work. But he sees this as a great mistake: Environmentalists have “made no more profound error than to misunderstand the mission of religion and the churches in preserving the Creation,” Pope says. “For almost thirty years, we…acted as though we could save future generations, and…unnamed…species, without the full engagement of the institutions through which we save ourselves….We rejected the churches.” 22 Although the situation is improving, uneasiness between the two groups continues today, at least in the United States. Cassandra Carmichael, Director of Faith-Based Outreach at the Center for a New American Dream, a U.S. NGO that helps Americans consume responsibly, notes that environmentalists and religious people—both of whom she works with closely—have trouble understanding each other. “Their perspectives are often different…[they] may not have experience talking or working [with each other], which is a shame, because they often share the same values when it comes to environmental sustainability.” The challenge, she says, is to develop a common language that would help the two communities work as partners.23 At the same time, some negative perceptions of religion are not entirely unfounded, and these pose special challenges to religious institutions and people of faith. To the extent that religion acts as a conservative social force, it may correctly be perceived as an obstacle to 161 State of the World 2003 ENGAGING RELIGION IN THE QUEST FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD sustainability, since a sustainable world will not be built without major changes to the world’s economies. Where religions neglect their prophetic potential and their calling to be critics of immoral social and environmental realities, they are likely to be distrusted by those working to change those trends. Indeed, some would argue that religions and religious people today too seldom wear the mantle of the prophet, in the sense of being a critic of the established order. Franciscan writer and author Richard Rohr asks, “Why is it that church people by and large mirror the larger population on almost all counts?...On the whole, we tend to be just as protective of power, prestige, and possessions as everyone else.” 24 But Rohr does not despair. He sees a long tradition of reform of religion that allows it to get back to its roots—and to the power and influence found there. Paradoxically, that charismatic power emerges from an embrace of powerlessness, of vulnerability, and of spiritual freedom (liberation from undue attachment to the material world) that are found at the core of the great religions. Thus the very reform of religion that could benefit the effort to heal the planet and its people would also likely give religion a critical new relevance.25 Beyond the differences in perception lie tensions that emerge from differing worldviews. Consider the issue of the status of women. Advocates of sustainability often view women as being denied equality and even oppressed by some religions, while some religions see the question of gender equality as a non-issue, given their view that family and societal roles played by men and women are naturally different. Because of the central role of women in combating malnutrition, reducing infectious disease, promoting education, and stabilizing populations (see Chapter 3), the perception that religion contributes to the marginalization of half of 162 humanity is a serious obstacle for collaboration on development issues. On the other hand, the fact that women are more involved than men in nearly all religions offers hope that their voices will one day carry equal weight with those of men.26 Similarly, divergent views of when human personhood begins—at conception, or later— have left many religious people and sustainability advocates at odds over abortion, an especially sensitive issue. Representatives of the Vatican and of Muslim countries, for example, battled with proponents of reproductive rights over language to be included in the final declaration from the International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo in 1994—a battle that left each side more wary than ever about prospects for future dialogue, much less cooperation. As long as the two communities hold their current positions, cooperation is unlikely on those issues.27 The profound issue of what constitutes truth is another difference in worldview that can separate the two communities. Some religious positions are based on a belief that the universe contains a set of objective truths— things that are true in all places, at all times— such as that God exists, or that all sentient beings have a right to live. For many people of faith, objective truth is not negotiable. When the two communities are separated by an issue that religious people see as containing an objective truth, compromise would seem to be impossible. On such issues, the two sides may simply need to agree to disagree, respecting each other’s views while putting disagreements aside and working together on areas of agreement. In addition, different perspectives on the place of humanity in the natural order can also separate the two communities—and create divisions within them. Some deep ecologists, for example, see humans as just State of the World 2003 ENGAGING RELIGION IN THE QUEST FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD another of many species in the natural world, with no greater or lesser moral value than other species, while more mainstream environmentalists would assign a special place to humanity, even as they demand that humans live in a way that respects the entire natural world. Similar divisions can be found among spiritually inclined people as well, with some spiritual adherents to the Gaia hypothesis—the idea that the planet is a single, interconnected organism, all of which is vital—taking positions similar to those of deep ecologists.28 Despite the tremendous challenges, collaboration is possible, even between scienceoriented environmentalists and scripturally centered religious traditions. Evangelical Christians in the United States, for example, have formed an Evangelical Environmental Network to promote conservation and environmental stewardship—not only because of scientific arguments for conservation, but because the natural world is God’s creation and must therefore be protected. The group is credited with playing a pivotal role in blocking attempts in the U.S. Congress in 1996 to weaken the Endangered Species Act, calling it the “Noah’s Ark of our day” for its role in preserving species, and accusing Congress of “trying to sink it.” The credibility of the evangelical group with moderate members of Congress—combined with a $1 million lobbying effort—helped persuade some of those members not to dilute the act.29 The Environment as Sacred Ground Ritual, as noted earlier, was central in regulating the use of trees, rivers, and other resources among indigenous peoples and could conceivably be adapted to other cultures. (See Box 8–3.) More broadly, the values that mold our perspective of nature “come primarily from religious worldviews and ethical practices,” according to Mary Evelyn Tucker and John Grim of the Forum on Religion and Ecology at Harvard University’s Center for the Environment. Given the power of religion to shape our views of nature, religious teachings about the natural world in this era could influence how quickly or easily the world makes the transition to sustainable economies. Growing religious interest in environmentally friendly ethics and practices suggest that the world’s religions are beginning to use their many assets to advance this teaching role.30 On some issues, the two sides may need to agree to disagree, respecting each other’s views while working together on areas of agreement. Consider, for example, the many statements in recent years by religious leaders on behalf of the environment. The Dalai Lama has made environmental protection the theme of numerous major statements since the mid1980s—including several speeches at the Earth Summit in 1992—and environmental protection is one of the five points of his peace plan for Tibet. Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew, symbolic leader of the 250-million member Orthodox Church, has been in the forefront of bringing scientists and religious leaders together to study water-related environmental issues. And Pope John Paul II issued major environmental statements in 1990 and 2001, and a joint statement with Patriarch Bartholomew in June 2002.31 Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew, in particular, has effectively leveraged moral authority and church resources for environmental and social ends. Elected by the Holy Synod in 1992, the Patriarch has made envi163 State of the World 2003 ENGAGING RELIGION IN THE QUEST FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD BOX 8–3. THE LINK BETWEEN RITUAL, ECOLOGY, AND SUSTAINABLE CULTURES For thousands of years, ritual has played a central role in governing sustainable use of the natural environment.The Tsembaga people of New Guinea, for example, use ritual to allocate scarce protein for their people in a way that does not cause irreversible damage to the land.The Tukano of the Northwest Amazon use myth and ritual to prevent overhunting and overfishing in their territory.And in the longest continually inhabited place in the United States, the Hopi village of Oraibi, people spend up to half of their time in ritual activity during certain parts of the year.Among all enduring cultures, ritual has been “a sophisticated social and spiritual technology” that has helped people to live in harmony with the natural world. A recent example of the use of ritual for conservation comes from Thailand, where “environmentalist monks” are finding ways to engage Buddhism in the effort to save the country from further deforestation. In 1991, in the village of Giew Muang, a monk named Prhaku Pitak helped to breathe life into an ineffective local forest conservation movement.The effort focused on a forest used by 10 surrounding villages that had been degraded and denuded by decades of exploitation. Pitak first used slide shows, environmental education programs, and agricultural projects to teach villagers the importance of forest conservation, finding ways to make his case in a Buddhist framework. He dubbed the Buddha “the first environmentalist,” for example, ronmental awareness and ecumenical dialogue an important pursuit of his patriarchate. In addition to regular environmental statements, he established Religion, Science and the Environment (RSE) in 1994, an organization that has brought religious and political leaders, scientists, journalists, and theologians together for symposia and train164 because the Buddha’s life was closely integrated with forests.And he stressed the interrelatedness of trees, water supply, and food production, capitalizing on the Buddhist teaching of “dependent origination,” the interdependence of all things. Pitak’s use of religious rituals to support the conservation efforts was perhaps his most creative and effective initiative. Because many of the villagers followed indigenous religions as well as Buddhism, Pitak first followed their suggestion to enlist a village elder in asking the village’s guardian spirit to bless the conservation effort.A shrine was built to the spirit, and offerings were made, involving every household in the village.Then Pitak turned to Buddhist rituals. Joined by 10 other monks and surrounded by the villagers, Pitak “ordained” the largest tree in the forest, wrapping a saffron robe around it and following most of the rite used in a normal ordination ceremony. No villager actually viewed the tree as a monk of course, but the ordination gave the conservation effort a sacred meaning.Villagers no longer dismissed the effort, because it was now more than a civic activity. In seeing the trees not just as resources but as part of a larger ecological and mystical reality, the villagers were part of the millennia-long chain of generations that have used ritual to help maintain sustainable resource use. SOURCE: See endnote 30. ing; in the process he has raised the profile of environmental issues in the Aegean and Black Seas, down the Danube River, in the Adriatic Sea, and in the Mediterranean.32 Perhaps the most influential RSE initiative has been the shipboard symposia hosted by the Patriarch and focusing on water-related environmental issues. Aboard a chartered State of the World 2003 ENGAGING RELIGION IN THE QUEST FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ship for approximately a week, scientists and theologians hear dozens of lectures on the environmental problems facing the area they are traveling in. The participants tend to be influential: in addition to the Patriarch, the 2002 Adriatic Sea symposium included a special consultant to the U.N. SecretaryGeneral, the former head of the U.N. Environment Programme, the head of the U.N. Development Programme, two Roman Catholic cardinals, the Primate of the Church of Sweden, imams from Egypt and Syria, a sheikh from Albania, the grand imam of Bosnia and Herzegovina, several ambassadors, several heads of environmental and development-oriented NGOs, the president of the U.N. Foundation, and some 40 journalists. Sharing meals and living quarters, lectures and field trips, these high-profile participants and other attendees learn and network with each other, to impressive effect. The Adriatic symposium ended in Venice with the Ecumenical Patriarch and Pope John Paul II signing a joint declaration on environmental protection.33 The gatherings focus on bodies of water in real trouble, such as the Black Sea, now the most degraded marine area in Europe. Damage to the sea in the past three decades has been described as “catastrophic,” due to coastal development, invasion of exotic species, damming of rivers feeding the sea, and the growing burden of fertilizer runoff and other pollutants. The 1997 Symposium visited ports in seven countries, sponsored field trips to degraded areas, and offered more than 30 lectures. Beyond building relationships among scientists and religious leaders and raising public environmental awareness through the hundreds of news reports generated by participating journalists, the trip inspired concrete initiatives on behalf of the environment. It gave rise to the Halki Ecological Institute, for example, a two-week- long program in 1999 to introduce Orthodox priests and seminary students and journalists to the environmental ills of the Black Sea. The World Bank increased funding for a Black Sea program, one of its few grant initiatives, in part because a World Bank vice president was at the 1997 symposium. And an educational and environmental remediation campaign for the Black Sea region, sponsored by the U.N. Environment Programme and the World Council of Churches, is now being planned, again because of contacts made at the symposium.34 Similar fruits are being reaped from the 1999 symposium on the Danube River. Participants testify to the role of this gathering in creating a sense of connection among the people of the river’s nine host countries, even in the face of the ongoing Yugoslav war. “Divided peoples felt united by the river,” explains Philip Weller, then a program director of the WWF Danube Carpathian project and a meeting participant. “The symposium helped people to feel connected to nature.” This emotional connection was possible because of the great interest generated by the Ecumenical Patriarch’s participation. “People are still talking about…the Patriarch’s involvement, three years after the event,” notes another participant. This is a prime example of how the moral authority of religion might be focused on building a sustainable world. 35 Far from the Danube, a very different case—the effort to clean up the Ganges River in India—illustrates the role that worldviews play in setting attitudes toward the environment. It also demonstrates the hard work and respect needed to bring together people with widely divergent religious and secular worldviews. The Ganges, also known as the Ganga, is one of the world’s major rivers, running for more than 2,500 kilometers from the Himalayas to the Bay of Bengal. It is also one 165 State of the World 2003 ENGAGING RELIGION IN THE QUEST FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD of the most polluted, primarily from sewage but also from animal carcasses, human corpses, and soap and other pollutants from bathers. Indeed, scientists measure fecal coliform levels at thousands of times what is permissible, and levels of oxygen in the water are similarly unhealthy. Renewal efforts have centered primarily on the government-sponsored Ganga Action Plan (GAP), started in 1985 with the goal of cleaning up the river by 1993. Several western-style sewage treatment plants were built along the river, but they were poorly designed, poorly maintained, and prone to shut down during the region’s frequent power outages. The GAP has been a colossal failure, and many argue that the river is more polluted now than it was in 1985.36 There is another view of the river, however, that parallels the scientific one. Hindus revere the Ganga as a goddess, a sacred river whose waters are, by definition, pure. Believers flock to it to bathe in the conviction that the river’s water will cleanse them, even removing their sins. Indeed, along the seven-kilometer stretch at Varanasi (also known as Banaras), one of India’s most sacred cities, some 60,000 pilgrims take a “holy dip” each day. In addition, many Hindus long to have their cremated remains disposed of in the Ganga in order to release them from the ongoing cycle of suffering that governs life in the material world. To Hindus, the river is much more than a conduit for Himalayan snowmelt. It is Mother Ganga, the source of eternal life.37 The difference in Hindu and secular perspectives on the river could not be more stark. Indeed, to many Hindus it is a grave insult to describe Mother Ganga as polluted. They do not deny that foul material has been dumped in the river, nor do they dispute the scientific reality of high levels of fecal coliform. But for many Hindus, these are mundane issues with no relevance to the Ganga’s spiritual essence. Indeed, Mother Ganga’s essen166 tial purity leaves some Hindus unmoved by the calls for a cleanup, since such an effort would make no difference to Mother Ganga’s essential identity. Others, however, see cleanup as a way of respecting and honoring Mother Ganga. In any case, the sensitivities about language complicate religious involvement in ending abuse of the Ganga.38 Yet such engagement is possible, as evidenced by the activities of Dr. V. B. Mishra, a hydrologist and professor of civil engineering who has been working for more than two decades to rid the river of contaminants. He is also the mahant, or head priest, of the Sankat Mochan Temple in Varanasi. With his two professional hats, Mishra embodies the divergent secular and religious worldviews— and finds both necessary for a complete understanding of the river. “Science and technology are one bank of the river,” he explains, “and faith is the other.…Both are needed to contain the river and ensure its survival.” With only one bank, he says, the river would spill away and disappear.39 Mishra has brought his integrated perspective to his activism, although he is careful about which hat is given the greater prominence at any particular moment. In 1984, he founded the Sankat Mochan Foundation—a secular organization that works with many people who are driven by their Hindu faith—to launch a Clean Ganga Campaign, intended to rid the river of its contaminants. The efforts of his group helped to prompt the government to launch the GAP in 1985. (The foundation later opposed the government efforts, however, once they failed.) More recently, the foundation has worked to bring alternative sewage technology to the river—technology that will be more reliable than the high-tech but fragile projects built by the GAP.40 Today the Clean Ganga Campaign is careful to respect the distinction between phys- State of the World 2003 ENGAGING RELIGION IN THE QUEST FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ical cleanness and purity in its campaign for the Ganga. It maintains respect for religious belief in Ganga’s purification power even as it promotes measures to reduce the material waste load on the river. By carefully making the distinction between cleanness and purity, the Campaign earns the respect of both sides, and helps to create a fusion of Hinduism and science.41 Ethical Consumption Religions have long had a strong interest in restraining consumption, although for reasons very different from the concerns of environ- mentalists. The ecological argument against excessive consumption—that population growth, ever-greater levels of individual consumption, and one-time use of materials have combined to deplete stocks of raw materials and to degrade ecosystems—is solid, well established, and stands strongly on its own. But religious traditions broaden the discussion by citing the corrosive effect of excessive consumption not only on the environment, but on the development of character, both of individuals and of societies. (See Table 8–3.) Living simply, many religions teach, frees up resources for those in need and frees the human spirit to cultivate relationships with Table 8–3. Selected Religious Teachings on Consumption Religion or Faith Quotation Indigenous: Micmac chief, North America Miserable as we seem in thy eyes, we consider ourselves…much happier than thou, in this that we are very content with the little that we have. Judaism: Isaiah 55:2 Why do you spend your money for that which is not bread, and your labor for that which does not satisfy? Christianity: 1 John 3.17 How does God’s love abide in anyone who has the world’s goods and sees a brother or sister in need and yet refuses to help? Islam: Koran 7.31 Eat and drink, but waste not by excess; verily He loves not the excessive. Taoism:Tao Te Ching chapter 33 He who knows he has enough is rich. Hinduism: Acarangasutra 2.114–19 On gaining the desired object, one should not feel elated. On not receiving the desired object, one should not feel dejected. In case of obtaining anything in excess, one should not hoard it. One should abstain from acquisitiveness. Confucianism: Confucius, XI.15 Excess and deficiency are equally at fault. Buddhism: Buddhadasa Bhikkhu The deep sense of calm that nature provides…protects our heart and mind.The lessons nature teaches us lead to a new birth beyond suffering caused by our acquisitive self-preoccupation. Bahá’í:The Bahá’í Statement on Nature The major threats to our world environment…are manifestations of a worldencompassing sickness of the human spirit, a sickness that is marked by an overemphasis on material things and a self-centeredness that inhibits our ability to work together as a global community. SOURCE: See endnote 42. 167 State of the World 2003 ENGAGING RELIGION IN THE QUEST FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD neighbors, with the natural world, and with the world of spirit. Adding these social and spiritual arguments for moderation to the newer ecological one yields a powerful case for simplicity, and situates consumption more clearly in a comprehensive understanding of what it means to be a developed person and a developed society.42 Religion in industrial countries is struggling in its efforts to counter the consumerist tide. Despite a history of teachings on the spiritual corruption associated with excessive attachment to wealth or material accumulation, religious leaders and institutions in industrial nations have largely failed to address the consumerist engine that drives industrial economies, aside from issuing occasional statements on the topic. Concrete initiatives to promote simple living—such as simplicity circles in pockets of the United States and Europe, where neighbors gather to discuss how to achieve simplicity in a high-consumption culture—are few, and most are not promoted or sponsored by organized religion. The newly installed Archbishop of Canterbur y, Rowan Williams, has said that curbing the culture of consumption will be a large focus of his ministry as head of the Anglican Church. But he must be sobered by the experience of Pope John Paul II, who set as a strategic goal of his papacy a dampening of the influence of consumerism in industrial cultures. Despite centuries of experience preaching against the illusion of satisfaction provided by earthly wealth, religion in industrial countries is struggling in its efforts to counter the consumerist tide.43 These traditions might find encouragement in the spiritually rooted ethic of mod168 erate consumption found in a developing country, Sri Lanka. Since 1958, a grassroots development effort there known as Sarvodaya Shramadana has promoted village-based development programs that explicitly integrate material and spiritual development. The movement, whose name roughly means “awakening of all through sharing,” motivates villagers to undertake a broad range of development projects, from latrine building to establishment of preschools and cultural centers, within a framework of Buddhist principles. The movement has grown to encompass more than half of the country’s 24,000 villages and is now the largest development NGO in Sri Lanka. Its success draws on two major assets that religion brings to development: the motivational power of religious principles and the capacity to generate and use “social capital” for development.44 Buddhist principles are central to Sarvodaya’s vision of development, and from this vision emerges the Sarvodayan ethic of consumption. In the Buddhist worldview, the goal in life is spiritual awakening, or enlightenment, which requires a person to overcome desire—the source of all human suffering, according to the Buddha. Overcoming desire, in turn, requires a spiritual detachment from material goods, so that the individual is indifferent to them, neither craving goods nor rejecting them. This posture of indifference is difficult to achieve in a culture of mass consumption, where advertisers deliberately confuse needs with desires and encourage acquisitiveness. Thus for Sarvodayans, consumption is not an economic end, as it often is in the West, where consumption is regarded as a prime engine of economic growth. Instead, Sarvodayans see consumption as a tool: it provides the material platform needed to support the spiritual work of arriving at enlightenment.45 Indeed, one of the distinguishing features State of the World 2003 ENGAGING RELIGION IN THE QUEST FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD of the Sarvodayan vision of development is that it explicitly and deliberately includes not just the material requisites for a dignified life, but also the educational, social, cultural, and spiritual requirements. This broad perspective is reflected in the list of 10 major human needs that guide Sarvodayan development work: • a clean and beautiful environment, • a clean and adequate supply of water, • basic clothing, • a balanced diet, • a simple house to live in, • basic health care, • simple communications facilities, • basic energy requirements, • well-rounded education, and • cultural and spiritual sustenance.46 The list of 10 basic needs helps to support an ethic of moderate consumption. By placing nonmaterial needs on a par with material ones, the list underlines the importance of the nonmaterial dimension of development. And it implicitly suggests where to limit consumption: if meeting the 10 needs essentially provides for a decent life, seeking more would seem to signal “greed, sloth, or ignorance,” in the words of one Sar vodaya observer, and would not therefore further a person’s development.47 The Sarvodayan consumption ethic is further shaped by a principle of social justice that underlies the Sarvodayan vision of development. Dr. A. T. Ariyaratne, founder of the movement, notes that one purpose of the list of 10 basic needs is to analyze the development status of the weakest group in the community, then work to improve its position. This recalibration function is far more feasible from a list of 10 basic needs than it would be if the list essentially embraced a wide range of human desires. Indeed, the Sarvodaya goal is a “no poverty, no affluence” society.48 In a more subtle but still powerful way, the social capital created by Sarvodaya activities likely reinforces an ethic of moderate consumption. The word shramadana refers to the voluntary gift of labor made by villagers in Sarvodaya projects, such as road building, clearing an irrigation ditch, or other activities that benefit the village as a whole. Sharing pervades the movement’s philosophy: as part of their work project, villagers eat together, sharing food that each has contributed. They share chants, prayers, and meditation as part of the project. They share ideas. And in the ideal, they share a commitment to what Buddhists know as “right speech”—encouragement, praise, and the avoidance of gossip and slander.49 The emphasis on sharing creates strong community ties; in fact, studies identify increased cohesion and village unity as one of the most important outcomes of the projects. This social outcome may in fact be more important than the physical achievements of the project, because it fosters long-lasting ties of mutual trust and communication that make other community initiatives possible. In one village, for example, the practice of sharing food during the work camp prompted villagers to institute a monthly potluck meal after the project ended.50 While Sarvodaya is far ahead of most others in inspiring adherents to moderate consumption, western religions are showing signs of flexing their market muscle to steer consumption in a greener direction. Such activities are an adaptation of the established religious practice of using boycotts to influence corporations on issues of social justice. Religious support globally for the boycott of Nestlé products in the 1970s, for example, pressured that company to end its aggressive marketing of baby formula in developing countries, where it had too often displaced breast-feeding, the healthier approach. And 169 State of the World 2003 ENGAGING RELIGION IN THE QUEST FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD churches were strong supporters of grape and lettuce boycotts in support of the United Farm Workers in California in the 1960s and 1970s.51 Today some congregations are moving beyond boycotts to help steer consumption toward green companies, largely by harnessing another great religious asset—the sheer mass of adherents. Because of the substantial market presence of people of faith, these fledgling efforts could potentially have a large impact. One creative example in the United States is the work of the Regeneration Project in California, an initiative of the Episcopal Church. It includes Episcopal Power and Light (EP&L), a ministry that promotes green energy and energy efficiency. EP&L was started in 1996 when Reverend Sally Bingham realized that she might capitalize on the state’s deregulation of energy to persuade a bloc of customers—the state’s Episcopalians— to choose energy generated from renewable sources, such as wind, geothermal, and biomass. The project also encourages participating parishes to undertake an energy audit of their buildings. The Regeneration Project includes California Interfaith Power and Light, which does political advocacy to promote renewable energy.52 In its short life, the Regeneration Project has spread to seven states, and it could have a substantial effect on energy consumption patterns if adopted by religious groups and adherents nationwide. In addition to offering a shot in the arm for emerging renewable energy companies, the project could help boost energy conservation. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) calculated in 1995 that an energy efficiency upgrade of the country’s 269,000 houses of worship—which account for about 5 percent of U.S. commercial building floor space—would prevent 6 million tons of carbon dioxide from being released to the 170 atmosphere, while saving congregations more than $500 million.53 The carbon savings would be only a tiny fraction of U.S. carbon emissions, but the real returns would come from enlisting congregant support for similar conservation activities in their homes. Of the 12 categories of commercial buildings designated by the U.S. Department of Energy and used in the EPA survey, only office buildings are visited by more adults more frequently than houses of worship. Indeed, the 44 percent of the American public who visit a church, synagogue, or mosque at least monthly constitutes a huge pool of potential converts to energy efficiency and green energy sources, especially if efforts to green the church are accompanied by efforts to raise consciousness among congregants, as in the EP&L program.54 Another effort to tackle ethical consumption is religious participation in the Interfaith Coffee program run by Equal Exchange, a for-profit U.S. company. The company sells only coffee that is “fair-traded,” which means that participating farmers are guaranteed a minimum price for their harvest, no matter what market conditions might dictate. This helps farmers avoid the erratic price swings that characterize many international commodity markets, which gives them greater economic stability. Equal Exchange is also committed to helping farmers secure credit at rates they can afford, and to encouraging ecologically sustainable farming practices, including organic and shade-grown cultivation.55 Equal Exchange recognized that its ethical approach to coffee might appeal to people of faith. They knew, too, that many Americans are regular churchgoers, and that some of these attend “coffee hours” after services. So they established their Interfaith Coffee Program to encourage congregations and individuals to switch to fair-traded cof- State of the World 2003 ENGAGING RELIGION IN THE QUEST FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD fee. Begun in 1997 as a partnership with the aid agency Lutheran World Relief, the program now includes the American Friends Service Committee, the Presbyterian Church USA, and the Unitarian Universalist Service Committee. While small, it has grown rapidly: more than 3,500 congregations participated at the end of 2001, just over 1 percent of all houses of worship in the United States, but up from a handful when the program started. The Interfaith program is the fastest-growing segment of Equal Exchange’s business, and now accounts for 11 percent of the firm’s sales.56 As with green energy, the potential for people of faith to change coffee consumption patterns is huge. Coffee is the second most widely consumed beverage in the United States, and its ethical consumption requires little or no sacrifice. Yet drinking fair-traded coffee yields great personal satisfaction—it’s “drinking a cup of justice,” in the words of one Lutheran Interfaith Coffee participant. With 99 percent of the institutional religious market untouched, the program would have a major impact on the U.S. coffee market if religious groups nationwide were to climb on board—and if participating congregants were persuaded to take their new habit home.57 The coffee program offers extensive opportunities to educate congregations about a host of justice issues, from the terms of trade in international commerce to the value of co-ops and organic farming. It can help people of faith, who have long supported aid and relief programs, to broaden their efforts beyond charity and into justice. Grasping this bigger picture, one participant noted that “our consumer dollars are hurting the very people our offering dollars are trying to help.” Such consciousness-raising can spark a “virtuous circle,” as consumers begin to consider the effects of other patterns of consumption on far-flung people and places.58 Another potentially high-leverage area for introducing ethics into economic decisions is through financial investments. As noted earlier, religious institutions are already active in holding corporations accountable for their practices through the use of shareholder resolutions. This consciousness, extended to religious individuals, could have a substantial effect on investment patterns. Socially responsible investment (SRI) accounted for only 12 percent of all investments in 2000. Religiously led campaigns to persuade the 44 percent of Americans who attend religious services at least monthly to shift their investment dollars to SRI could give a substantial boost to the SRI movement.59 Accelerating Engagement In pockets of activity worldwide, many religions are beginning to show interest in building a sustainable world, as the record of the past decade demonstrates. At the same time, advocates of sustainability are becoming somewhat more receptive to spiritual appeals, as seen in the WWF collaboration with churches along the Danube River or the ad initiative by the Sierra Club and the National Council of Churches in the United States. More extensive engagement of environmentalism by the religious community, and of spirituality by the environmental and development communities, is possible—and needed. Some of this can occur in the form of partnerships. Some can take place within each community. If the conditions are indeed ripe to build bridges between the two disciplines, such initiatives could conceivably contribute to a historic ending to the schism between society’s head and heart. At the international level, several organizations have shown leadership in tackling this engagement head-on, setting an example for the work of local religious and environmen171 State of the World 2003 ENGAGING RELIGION IN THE QUEST FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD tal communities. The U.N. Environment Programme, for example, has published reports on faiths and the environment dating back to 1991. It has given guidance and support to the Interfaith Partnership for the Environment, a group of scholars from diverse faiths, in various projects, including the publication of a book describing the posture of major religions toward the environment. The World Bank has held major interfaith meetings on development questions since 1998, out of which has emerged the World Faiths Development Dialogue, which has increased religious input to the work of the Bank. On the religious side, the World Council of Churches’ Climate Change Programme was formed in 1988 to lobby governments and international organizations to work for poli- cies to combat climate change.60 Each side has important assets to bring to the table. Religions could use their asset base—their ability to shape worldviews and their authority, numbers, material resources, and capacity to build community—to advance the work of sustainability. Each religious tradition will know how it might best use its particular strengths; the mix of actions will vary from tradition to tradition and from place to place. For each of the five asset areas, any number of activities is possible. (See Table 8–4.) In the arena of moral authority—perhaps the most powerful asset religions possess— several initiatives are possible. First, religious leaders might use their elevated social standing to call for an end to systematic abuse of Table 8–4. Leveraging Religious Assets Asset Approaches to Consider Worldview development • Assess teachings; ensure that the natural world is sufficiently represented in worldview and ethics. Moral authority • Use the pulpit to address the global crisis of sustainability. • Use the congregational newsletter, bulletin, or Web site as a platform. • Make effective use of the media, through placement of op eds, letters to the editor, and coverage of congregation’s environmental activities. • Engage political leaders who make decisions affecting sustainability. Numbers • Encourage members to write letters, join boycotts or protests, or in other ways creatively bring their full political weight to bear on these issues. • Educate members about consumption and encourage them to consume less and to buy products that have low environmental impact. • Encourage members to shift investments to companies with exemplary environmental and labor records. Material resources • Use physical facilities as a venue for discussing issues of sustainability or for organizing sustainability activities. • Use physical facilities as a showcase of simplicity and for renewable energy, energy conservation, organic gardening, or other activities that could promote sustainable living. • Shift purchasing and investment decisions to favor a sustainable world. Community building • Increase bonds of trust and communication, and deepen emotional ties to the environment, by organizing environmentally oriented service activities. • Build on existing social ties to support congregants in attempts to simplify their lives. 172 State of the World 2003 ENGAGING RELIGION IN THE QUEST FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD the environment and for the creation of a just and environmentally healthy world in a way that would capture the attention of many people. Efforts such as the WWF-sponsored meeting of religious leaders in Assisi in 1986 or the Ecumenical Patriarch’s symposia for religious leaders and scientists are good models of the ecumenical spirit needed to expand the openness of each community to the perspective of the other. Imagine stepping up a few notches the bold initiative of the Ecumenical Patriarch in co-signing an environmental declaration with the Pope. Suppose that these western religious leaders, along with the Dalai Lama, the Grand Muftis of Syria, and leaders of a dozen other religions, were to travel to the North Pole to bear witness to a melting world, and to call for action to stop it. Or suppose they were to hold an interreligious prayer vigil outside the annual meetings of the World Bank, calling attention to policies that serve to increase the miseries of the poor. Surely such leadership would lift discussion of these issues to an entirely new level, and might well increase pressure for action. It would also likely enhance the prestige of religion, as followers and critics alike would gain new respect for leaders who demonstrated a willingness to grapple seriously with contemporary challenges. Wrestling with such challenges might help religions to increase their moral authority in another way. By reading the “signs of the times” through the lens of their own scriptures, religious traditions might demonstrate the relevance of their teachings for the major issues of our day, even as they help address the tremendous environmental and social needs of this moment in history. Several tools— retrieval, reevaluation, and reconstruction— are used by some theologians for evaluating scripture and tradition in the light of contemporary circumstances.61 The first is to retrieve teachings that have lain dormant but that are especially relevant today. One example of this was the revival last decade of the Hebrew tradition of the Jubilee—the teaching from Leviticus that debts should be forgiven, and slaves freed, every 50 years—to generate support for the goal of reducing the debt of the world’s poorest nations. Known for millennia, this scriptural teaching became particularly evocative in the 1990s because of contemporary circumstances: poor countries struggled under the burden of huge debt payments, which were siphoning off the money available for investments in health and education. As the year 2000 approached, and nations searched for a meaningful way to mark the millennium, the Jubilee tradition spoke to the global community in a new and fresh way.62 Arguably the most powerful latent teaching in many faith traditions is the exhortation to avoid preoccupation with wealth and materialism. Excessive consumption is the engine that runs the world’s most powerful economies, and the arguments used to resist it—it is bad for the environment, and often bad for human health—have made only small dents in the trend. Religions are in a position to weigh in more strongly with the spiritual and moral case against excessive consumption: that it diverts attention from the most important goals of life, and that it squanders resources that might be used to help the poor. And beyond preaching, they could become more active in the community by sponsoring neighborhood groups that seek to promote simplicity and by otherwise offering support to those who seek to live simply. Religions also reevaluate and reconstruct traditional teachings in light of present realities. A good example of this comes from Africa, where the high rates of HIV infection have pushed some churches and mosques to rethink their teachings on condom use. 173 State of the World 2003 ENGAGING RELIGION IN THE QUEST FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD Increasingly uncomfortable with prohibitions of condom use as they watch masses of people—often their own congregants—lie sick and dying from a disease that prophylactics could largely prevent, many local leaders have questioned the policy. Muslim communities in several African nations have changed direction on teachings about condoms. And a Catholic bishop in South Africa has called for a reversal of his church’s teaching on condom use.63 The challenge for advocates of sustainability may be to build a greater appreciation for the importance of spirituality into their work. Whether these particular reevaluations and reconstructions should be adopted broadly by various religions is a question to be decided by each tradition. The point here is simply that established religions have centuries of experience reading their central tenets in the light of contemporary realities. Indeed, it is the adaptability of religion, which results from the universality and timelessness of their core teachings, that helps to make it one of the most enduring of human institutions. Some scholars even suggest replacing the term “religious traditions” with “religious processes,” so consistent is the theme of adaptation in the history of most religions.64 The challenge for environmentalists and other advocates of sustainability, meanwhile, may be to build a greater appreciation for the importance of spirituality into their own work. Public overtures toward people’s spiritual sensibilities could be a powerful step forward for sustainability. This is important not simply to win religious people as allies, but because spirituality is important for development. All development activities are embed174 ded in a cultural context; if pursued unwisely, they can provoke a cultural backlash. The Shah of Iran, in his attempt to “modernize” that country between the 1950s and 1970s, paid too little attention to religious sensibilities in the process and learned firsthand, through the 1979 revolution that dethroned him, how costly this insensitivity can be. A good demonstration of the sensitivity needed is found at the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), which works around the world on issues of reproductive health. In Kenya, where UNFPA seeks to prevent the spread of AIDS by halting the contraction of HIV among sex workers, the agency collaborates with Catholic parishes and with secular health clinics—but in different ways. UNFPA underwrites the provision of condoms at the health clinic. But at the parishes, the agency follows a policy sensitive to Catholic teaching about condom use and funds programs that offer income-generating projects as an alternative to the sex work. In sum, UNFPA identifies common ground for collaboration rather than focusing on areas of difference—a helpful model for traversing the bumpy spots in the relationship between sustainability groups and some religious communities.65 In addition to respecting the religious sensibilities of a culture, environmentalists might seek ways to express spirituality in their own programs and communication efforts. Such expressions need not be religious, of course, but might instead focus on creating an emotional/spiritual connection between the public and the natural environment—an indispensable and largely missing link in the effort to generate commitment to sustainability. As Harvard biologist Stephen Jay Gould has suggested, “We cannot win this battle to save species and environments without forging an emotional bond between ourselves and nature as well—for we will not State of the World 2003 ENGAGING RELIGION IN THE QUEST FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD fight to save what we do not love.” 66 Building on Gould’s thought, environmental educator David Orr challenges scientists (including environmentalists) to knead emotion into their work. He notes that most biologists and ecologists “believe that cold rationality, fearless objectivity, and a bit of technology” will get humanity out of its environmental predicament. But those tools have long been used, with minimal success. What is missing, Orr unabashedly asserts, is love. “Why is it so hard to talk about love, the most powerful of human emotions, in relation to science, the most powerful and far-reaching of human activities?” Orr asks. He notes that passion and good science, far from being antithetical, are as interdependent as the heart and the brain. Both are needed if we are to fully understand our world and our role in it.67 Environmentalists can help to infuse a sense of emotion into their work by getting back to the movement’s own roots. Although a rare voice today, passionate environmental writing was once the norm for conservationists. Consider this from the writings of John Muir, founder of the Sierra Club: “Perched like a fly on this Yosemite dome, I gaze and sketch and bask…humbly prostrate before the vast display of God’s power, and eager to offer self-denial and renunciation with eternal toil to learn any lesson in the divine manuscript.” Such prose reaches people in a different place than the one that takes in analysis and statistics—the necessary yet limited language of modern environmentalism— and it motivates in a way that the science alone cannot.68 By combining their considerable skills and complementary perspectives, environmentalists and religious people can help reunite our civilization’s head and heart, re-engaging religion in the quest for a new cosmology, a new worldview for our time. Cultural historian Thomas Berry calls this emerging perspective a New Story—the story of a people in an intimate and caring relationship with their planet, with their cosmos, and with each other. Its ethics would deal not just with homicide and suicide, but equally with biocide and geocide, in Berry’s words. It would be as comfortable with awe and wonder as with weights and measures. It would rewrite the story of unrestrained science and technology, of a human species alienated from its own home. It would be the vehicle to guide us to a socially just and environmentally sustainable future.69 175 Notes State of the World: A Year in Review October 2001. U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), “Deforestation Continues at a High Rate in Tropical Areas; FAO Calls Upon Countries to Fight Forest Crime and Corruption,” press release (Rome: 3 October 2001); U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “NOAA, NASA Report 2001 Ozone Hole Similar in Size to Holes of Past Three Years,” press release (Washington, DC: 16 October 2001); cancer study presented at European Cancer Conference, Lisbon, and cited in “Counting Chernobyl’s Cancer Cost,” Environment News Service, 23 October 2001. November 2001. FAO, “International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture Approved by FAO Conference,” press release (Rome: 3 November 2001); U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency, “U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Increase by 3.1 Percent in 2000—1 Percentage Point Lower than GDP Growth,” press release (Washington, DC: 9 November 1999); World Trade Organization, “Conference Ends With Agreement on New Programme,” press release (Geneva: 14 November 2002); “Smugglers Steal 38 Mln Animals from Brazil’s Forests,” Reuters, 14 November 2001; Reg Watson and Daniel Pauly, “Systematic Distortions in World Fisheries Catch Trends,” Nature, 29 November 2001, pp. 534–36; David Quist and Ignacio H. Chapela, “Transgenic DNA Introgressed into Traditional Maize Landraces in Oaxaca, Mexico,” Nature, 29 November 2001, pp. 541–43. December 2001. “Mexican Officials Report Deforestation Worse Than Previously Thought,” Associated Press, 4 December 2001; U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP), “Felling of Forests Adding to World’s Water Shortages as Dams Fill Up With Silt,” press release (Nairobi: 4 December 2001); United Nations, Division for Ocean Affairs and the Law of the Sea, “The United Nations Agreement for the Implementation of the Provisions of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea of 10 December 1982 relating to the Conservation and Management of Straddling Fish Stocks and Highly Migratory Fish Stocks (in force as from 11 December 2001),” at <www.un.org/Depts/los/index.htm>, viewed 12 September 2002; World Meteorological Organization, “WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 2001,” press release (Geneva: 18 December 2001). January 2002. North American Commission for Environmental Cooperation, “Significant Biodiversity Loss Across North America, NAFTA Body’s State of the Environment Report Says,” press release (Montreal: 7 January 2002); M. Vrijheid et al., “Chromosomal Congenital Anomalies and Residence Near Hazardous Waste Landfill Sites,” The Lancet, vol. 359 (2002), pp. 320–22; Marcos A. Orellana, “Unearthing Governance: Obstacles and Opportunities for Public Participation in Minerals Policy,” in Carl Bruch, ed., The New “Public”: The Globalization of Public Participation (Washington, DC: Environmental Law Institute, 2002), p. 238; Government of Germany, “Trittin: Zukunft der Windenergie Liegt auf See,” press release (Berlin: 25 January 2002). February 2002. “Worst Flooding in Decades Inundates Indonesia,” Environment News Service, 177 State of the World 2003 NOTES, A YEAR IN REVIEW 7 February 2002; Mark F. Meier, “Shrinking Glaciers and Rising Sea Level: Has the Impact Been Underestimated?” presentation at the 2002 Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), Boston, 16 February 2001; Charles Birkeland et al., “New Technologies Make Marine Reserves Imperative,” presentation at the 2002 Annual Meeting of the AAAS, Boston, 18 February 2001; Basel Action Network, “High-Tech Toxic Trash from USA Found to Be Flooding Asia,” press release (Seattle: 25 February 2002). March 2002. U.N. Population Division (UNPD), “Experts Concur: Fertility In Developing Countries May Fall Below Two-Child Family Norm,” press release (New York: 21 March 2002); idem, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision, Data Tables and Highlights (New York: United Nations, 2002); U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center, “Antarctic Ice Shelf Collapses,” press release (Boulder, CO: 21 March 2002); United Nations, “Monterrey Conference on Development Financing Concludes; Participants Resolve to Eradicate Poverty, Achieve Sustainable Economic Growth,” press release (New York: 22 March 2002). April 2002. Bob Burton, “New Zealand Ends Rainforest Logging on Public Lands,” Environment News Service, 1 April 2002; David Buchan, “Market in Greenhouse Gas Allowance Trading Opens,” Financial Times, 2 April 2002; Howard W. French, “China’s Growing Deserts Are Suffocating Korea,” New York Times, 14 April 2002; “Cracks in China’s Three Gorges Dam,” BBC News Online, 12 April 2002. May 2002. “Occidental Petroleum Abandons Oil Development on U’wa Land,” Environment News Service, 3 May 2002; Inform, “130 Million Cell Phones Will Be Discarded Annually in the US by 2005,” press release (New York: 8 May 2002); “Poachers Kill Rwandan Endangered Mountain Gorillas,” Reuters, 15 May 2002; World Health Organization (WHO), “Pollution-related Diseases Kill Millions of Children a Year,” press release (New York: 9 May 2002); CRC Reef Research Centre, “Too Much Stress for the Reef?,” press release (Townsville, Australia: 23 May 2002); 178 Office of the President of Mexico, “The Federal Government Makes the Seas of Mexico a National Whale Sanctuary,” press release (Mexico City: 24 May 2002); Katharine G. Seelye, “President Distances Himself From Global Warming Report,” New York Times, 5 June 2002; European Commission, “European Union Ratifies the Kyoto Protocol,” press release (Brussels: 31 May 2002). June 2002. “Costa Rica Cracks Down on Mining, Logging,” Environment News Service, 11 June 2002; Axel Bugge, “Brazil’s Amazon Destruction Down But Still Alarming,” Reuters, 12 June 2002; WHO, “Europe Achieves Historic Milestone as Region Is Declared Polio-Free,” press release (Geneva: 21 June 2002). July 2002. Office of the Mayor of New York City, “Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg Signs Temporary Recycling Requirements,” press release (New York: 1 July 2002); UNICEF, “Joint Report Details Escalating Global Orphan Crisis Due to AIDS,” press release (New York: 10 July 2002); Julie Eilperin, “U.S. Withholds $34 Million in Family Planning Funding to UN,” Washington Post, 23 July 2002; Office of the Governor of California, “Governor Davis Signs Historic Global Warming Bill,” press release (Sacramento, CA: 22 July 2002); “Bush Signs Yucca Mountain Resolution,” Environment News Service, 24 July 2002. August 2002. UNEP–World Conservation Monitoring Centre, “‘World Atlas of Biodiversity’ First Map-Based View of Earth’s Living Resources,” press release (Cambridge, UK: 1 August 2002); Andrew Balmford et al., “Economic Reasons for Conserving Wild Nature,” Science, 9 August 2002, p. 950; UNEP, “Regional and Global Impacts of Vast Pollution Cloud Detailed In New Scientific Study,” press release (Nairobi: 12 August 2002); Feminist Majority Foundation, “Male Preference Continues to Grow in Asia,” press release (Arlington, VA: 15 August 2002); International Energy Agency, “Energy and Poverty: IEA Reveals a Vicious and Unsustainable Circle,” press release (Paris: 21 August 2002); Conservation International, “World’s Largest Rain Forest National Park Created in Northern Amazon,” press release (Washington, DC: 22 August 2002). State of the World 2003 NOTES, A YEAR IN REVIEW AND CHAPTER 1 September 2002. United Nations, “With a Sense of Urgency, Johannesburg Summit Sets an Action Agenda,” press release (3 September 2002); Conservation International, “U.S. Government Commits $36 Million to Protect Congo’s Forests,” press release (Washington, DC: 4 September 2002); Keith Bradsher, “A Rosy, Pink Cloud, Packed With Pollution,” New York Times, 10 September 2002; World Food Programme, “Southern Africa Crisis Worsens: 14.4 Million People In Dire Need,” press release (Rome: 16 September 2002); Mike Linstead, “Greens Save Schroeder’s Skin,” BBC News Online, 23 September 2002. Chapter 1. A History of Our Future 1. Except where otherwise noted, account of Stone Age people drawn from Paul R. Ehrlich, Human Natures: Genes, Cultures, and the Human Prospect (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2000); for a popular article on the transition that they evidently started, see Jared Diamond, “The Great Leap Forward,” Discover, May 1989, pp. 50–60. 2. Henri Delporte, Les Aurignaciens: Premiers Hommes Modernes (Paris: Maison des roches, 1998), pp. 56–69. 3. Needles and spear points from ibid., pp. 63–66; rope and amber from Diamond, op. cit. note 1, p. 57; music, art, and burial grounds from Clive Gamble, The Palaeolithic Societies of Europe (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1999), pp. 337, 310, 405. 4. This is the main point of Diamond, op. cit. note 1. 5. A generation, the interval between birth and reproduction, is here assumed to be 20 years. 6. Robert Engelman, Brian Halweil, and Danielle Nierenberg, “Rethinking Population, Improving Lives,” in Worldwatch Institute, State of the World 2002 (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2002), p. 130; Danielle Nierenberg, “Population Growing Steadily,” in Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs 2002 (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2002), p. 88; absolute poverty from World Bank, World Development Report 2000/2001 (New York: Oxford University Press), p. 23. 7. Food imports and drought from Engelman, Halweil, and Nierenberg, op. cit. note 6, p. 134; cropland quality from Brian Halweil, “Farmland Quality Deteriorating,” in Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs 2002, op. cit. note 6, p. 102. 8. Seth Dunn, “Carbon Emissions Reach New High,” in Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs 2002, op. cit. note 6, p. 52; idem, “Carbon Emissions Continue Decline,” in Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs 2001 (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2001), p. 52. 9. Danielle Nierenberg, “Toxic Fertility,” World Watch, March/April 2001, pp. 30–38. 10. Elena Bennett and Steve R. Carpenter, “P Soup,” World Watch, March/April 2002, pp. 24–32. 11. Nierenberg, op. cit. note 9; Bennett and Carpenter, op. cit. note 10. 12. Anne Platt McGinn, “Toxic Waste Largely Unseen,” in Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs 2002, op. cit. note 6, p. 112; disposal procedures from Travis Wagner, In Our Backyard: A Guide to Understanding Pollution and Its Effects (New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold, 1994), pp. 133–39. 13. Payal Sampat, “Groundwater Shock,” World Watch, January/February 2000, pp. 10–22. 14. Anne Platt McGinn, Why Poison Ourselves? A Precautionary Approach to Synthetic Chemicals, Worldwatch Paper 153 (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, November 2000). 15. Overviews of bioinvasion from Yvonne Baskin, A Plague of Rats and Rubbervines: The Growing Threat of Species Invasions (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2002), from Harold A. Mooney and Richard J. Hobbs, Invasive Species in a Changing World (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2000), and from Chris Bright, Life Out of Bounds (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1998). 179 State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 1 16. For the Argentine ant, see Caroline E. Christian, “Consequences of Biological Invasion Reveal the Importance of Mutualism for Plant Communities,” Nature, 11 October 2001, pp. 635–39. tility in Europe: the Revised Proceedings of a Conference on the Princeton European Fertility Project (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1986), p. 27. 17. Rate of tropical forest decline from U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000 (Rome: 2001), pp. 9–10; global forest decline from Janet N. Abramovitz, “Forest Loss Unchecked,” in Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs 2002, op. cit. note 6, p. 104; wetlands from Janet Larson, “Wetlands Decline,” in Worldwatch Institute, op. cit. note 8, p. 96. 25. East-West Center, The Future of Population in Asia (Hawaii: East-West Center, 2002), pp. 25, 106–09; Bloom and Williamson, op. cit. note 24, p. 419. 18. Lisa Mastny, “World’s Coral Reefs Dying Off,” in Worldwatch Institute, op. cit. note 8, p. 92; Gary Gardner, “Fish Harvest Down,” in Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs 2000 (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2000), p. 40; IUCN Species Survival Commission, 2002 IUCN Red List of Threatened Species (Gland, Switzerland: IUCN–World Conservation Union, 2002), p. 8. 19. Consumption statistic from United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), The State of World Population 2001 (New York: 2001), chapter 1. 20. Smallpox eradication campaign from F. Fenner et al., Smallpox and Its Eradication (Geneva: World Health Organization, 1988); for world population in 1967, see the U.S. Census Bureau, International Database, at <www.census.gov/ipc/ www/worldpop.html>. 21. Fenner et al., op. cit. note 20. 22. René Dubos, Man Adapting (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1965), p. 379. 23. Fenner et al., op. cit. note 20. 24. David E. Bloom and Jeffrey G. Williamson, “Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia,” The World Bank Economic Review, vol. 12, no. 3 (1998), pp. 422–24; Ansley J. Coale, “The Decline of Fertility in Europe Since the Eighteenth Century as a Chapter in Human Demographic History,” in Ansley J. Coale and Susan Cotts Watkins, eds., The Decline of Fer- 180 26. Population increase in the twentieth century from U.S. Census Bureau, World Population Information, Historical Estimates of World Population, at <www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldhis.html>, viewed 10 October 2002; industrial-country total fertility rate (TFR) from UNFPA, op. cit. note 19; United Nations, Report on the International Conference on Population and Development, 18 October 1994, chapter 6, section 6.1. 27. Estimates of annual increments in population growth (recent years and projections) available from U.S. Census Bureau, op. cit. note 20, and from United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, Population Database, at <esa.un.org/unpp/>. 28. Ann Hwang, “AIDS Passes 20-Year Mark,” in Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs 2002, op. cit. note 6, pp. 90–91; the dozen countries with substantial declines in TFRs are Bangladesh, India, Iran, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Mexico, Myanmar, Nigeria, the Philippines, Syria, Turkey, and Viet Nam; Farzaneh Roudi-Fahimi, Iran’s Family Planning Program: Responding to a Nation’s Needs (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, June 2002); TFR data from United Nations Population Division, op. cit. note 27. 29. Radheshyam Bairagi and Ashish Kumar Datta, “Demographic Transition in Bangladesh: What Happened in the Twentieth Century and What Will Happen Next?” Asia-Pacific Population Journal, December 2001, pp. 4–7; TFR data from United Nations Population Division, op. cit. note 27. 30. TFR data from United Nations Population Division, op. cit. note 27; Thomas McDevitt, Population Trends: Peru (Washington, DC: U.S. Cen- State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTERS 1 AND 2 sus Bureau, March 1999), p. 2; U.N. Development Programme, Human Development Report 2002 (New York: Oxford University Press, 2002). 31. Population Reference Bureau, 2001 World Population Data Sheet, wallchart (Washington, DC: 2001). 32. Developing-world TFR from United Nations Population Division, op. cit. note 27. 33. Brian Halweil, “Where Have All the Farmers Gone?” World Watch, September/October 2000, pp. 12–28; Christopher Flavin, “Wind Energy Surges,” in Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs 2002, op. cit. note 6, p. 42; Molly O. Sheehan, “Solar Cell Use Rises Quickly,” in ibid., p. 44. 34. John Terborgh and Carel van Schaik, “Why the World Needs Parks,” in John Terborgh et al., eds., Making Parks Work: Strategies for Preserving Tropical Nature (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2002), pp. 5–6. Chapter 2. Watching Birds Disappear 1. “The Extinction of Spix’s Macaw in the Wild,” World Birdwatch, March 2001, pp. 9–11; Alison J. Stattersfield and David R. Capper, eds., Threatened Birds of the World (Barcelona: Lynx Edicions, 2000), p. 258; Josep del Hoyo, Andrew Elliott, and Jordi Sargatal, eds., Handbook of Birds of the World, Volume 4 (Barcelona: Lynx Edicions, 1997), p. 419; Renato Caparroz et al., “Analysis of the Genetic Variability in a Sample of the Remaining Group of Spix’s Macaw by DNA Fingerprinting,” Biological Conservation, vol. 99, no. 3 (2001), pp. 307–11. 2. Stattersfield and Capper, op. cit. note 1. 3. Ibid. 4. Josep del Hoyo, Andrew Elliott, and Jordi Sargatal, eds., Handbook of the Birds of the World, Volume 6 (Barcelona: Lynx Edicions, 2001), pp. 100–01; idem, Handbook of the Birds of the World, Volume 2 (Barcelona: Lynx Edicions, 1994), p. 239; Hussein Adan Isack, “The Cultural and Economic Importance of Birds Among the Boran People of Northern Kenya,” in A. W. Diamond and F. L. Filion, The Value of Birds (Cambridge: International Council for Bird Preservation, 1987), pp. 91–95. 5. Kenneth D. Whitney et al., “Seed Dispersal by Certatogymna Hornbills in the Dja Reserve, Cameroon,” Journal of Tropical Ecology, vol. 14 (1998), pp. 351–71; del Hoyo, Elliott, and Sargatal, Volume 6, op. cit. note 4, pp. 91–92. 6. Deborah J. Pain and Michael W. Pienkowski, eds., Farming and Birds in Europe (New York: Academic Press, 1997), pp. 128–37; Josep del Hoyo, Andrew Elliott, and Jordi Sargatal, eds., Handbook of the Birds of the World, Volume 5 (Barcelona: Lynx Edicions, 1999), pp. 499, 523; A. W. Diamond, “A Global View of Cultural and Economic Uses of Birds,” in Diamond and Filion, op. cit. note 4, pp. 106; Daniel A. Walsh, “Birds as Indicators of Forest Stand Condition in Boreal Forests of Eastern Canada,” in Diamond and Filion, op. cit. note 4, pp. 261–64. 7. David Peakall and Hugh Boyd, “Birds as Bio-Indicators of Environmental Conditions,” and S. J. Ormerod and Stephanie J. Tyler, “Dippers and Grey Wagtails as Indicators of Stream Acidity in Upland Wales,” in Diamond and Filion, op. cit. note 4, pp. 113–18, 191–207. 8. Alison J. Stattersfield, BirdLife International, e-mail to author, June 2002; Stattersfield and Capper, op. cit. note 1; David W. Steadman, “Human-Caused Extinction of Birds,” in Marjorie L. Reaka-Kudla, Don E. Wilson, and Edward O. Wilson, eds., Biodiversity II: Understanding and Protecting Our Biological Resources (Washington, DC: Joseph Henry Press, 1996), p. 148. Box 2–1 from the following sources: Graham M. Tucker and Melanie F. Heath, Birds in Europe: Their Conservation Status (Cambridge, U.K.: BirdLife International, 1994), p. 13; U.K. Environment Agency, at <www.environment-agency .gov.uk/yourenv/eff/wildlife/ 213126/?ver sion=1&lang=_e>, viewed May 2001; U.S. Geological Survey, at <www.mbr-pwrc.usgs.gov/ bbs/trend/guild99.html>, viewed May 2001; Mike Crosby, “Asia’s Red Data Birds: The Facts,” World Birdwatch, June 2001, p. 17; “Half of Aus- 181 State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 2 tralia’s Land Birds Predicted to Become Extinct by End of 21 st Centur y,” at <www.nccn sw.org.au/member/cbn/news/media/19990803 _HalfALBExt.html>, viewed April 2002; survey results from Stephen Garnett, “Atlas of Australian Birds: Winners and Losers,” Wingspan, December 2001, p. 23. 9. Edward O. Wilson, The Diversity of Life (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1992), pp. 29–32; Russell Mittermeier, in Stattersfield and Capper, op. cit. note 1, p. vii; C. Hilton-Taylor (compiler), 2002 IUCN Red List of Threatened Species (Gland, Switzerland: IUCN–World Conservation Union, 2002). 10. Colin J. Bibby, “Recent, Past and Future Extinction in Birds,” in John H. Lawton and Robert M. May, eds., Extinction Rates (New York: Oxford University Press, 1995), p. 98; Nigel Collar, BirdLife International, e-mails to author, August 1993 and January 2002. 11. Collar, op. cit. note 10; Alison J. Stattersfield et al., Endemic Bird Areas of the World: Priorities for Biodiversity Conservation (Cambridge: BirdLife International, 1998), p. 21; “New Owl Species in Sri Lanka,” World Birdwatch, June 2001. 12. John P. McCarty, “Ecological Consequences of Recent Climate Change,” Conservation Biology, April 2001, pp. 320–29; Stattersfield and Capper, op. cit. note 1. 13. Janet Abramovitz, “Sustaining the World’s Forests,” in Lester R. Brown et al., State of the World 1998 (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1998), pp. 21–22; D. Bryant, D. Nielson, and L. Tangley, The Last Frontier Forests (Washington, DC: World Resources Institute (WRI), 1997); WRI, World Resources 2000–2001 (Washington, DC: 2000), p. 90; Stattersfield and Capper, op. cit. note 1. 14. “Temperate Woodland Gains,” Oryx, vol. 33, no. 2 (1999), p. 989. 15. Southern Environmental Law Center, “Environmental Groups Demand Immediate Moratorium on New Chip Mills,” press release 182 (Charlottesville, VA: 25 April 2000); Deborah Schoch, “Mistaking Trees for a Forest?” Los Angeles Times, 23 May 2002; Jane A. Fitzgerald, Robert P. Ford, and Joseph C. Neal, “Bird Conservation Regions: The Central Hardwoods,” Birding, April 2002, pp. 156–58; Sue Anne Pressley, “Report Predicts Major Forest Loss in South,” Washington Post, 28 November 2001. 16. Robert A. Askins, Restoring North America’s Birds (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2000), pp. 138–43. 17. WRI, op. cit. note 13, p. 119–22; David S. Wilcove, The Condor’s Shadow (New York: W.H. Freeman and Company, 1999), pp. 78–80. 18. North American Breeding Bird Survey data from U.S. Geological Survey, op. cit. note 8; Pete Gober and Mike Lockhart, “As Goes the Prairie Dog…So Goes the Ferret,” Endangered Species Bulletin, November/December 1996, pp. 4–5; Mark B. Robbins, A. Townsend Peterson, and Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta, “Major Negative Impacts of Early Intensive Cattle Stocking on Tallgrass Prairies: The Case of the Greater PrairieChicken,” North American Birds, vol. 56, no. 2 (2002), pp. 239–44. 19. Zoltán Waliczky, “Habitats for Birds in Europe,” World Birdwatch, September 1997, pp. 16–19. 20. WRI, op. cit. note 13, p. 122; Amy Jansen and Alistar I. Robertson, “Riparian Bird Communities in Relation to Land Management Practices in Floodplain Woodlands of South-eastern Australia,” Biological Conservation, vol. 100, no. 2 (2001), pp. 173–85. 21. Stattersfield and Capper, op. cit. note 1. 22. Josep del Hoyo, Andrew Elliott, and Jordi Sargatal, Handbook of the Birds of the World, Volume 3 (Barcelona: Lynx Edicions, 1996), p. 264; Kate Fitzherbert, ornithologist, Australia, e-mail to author, October 2001; Adrián S. Di Giacomo, “Afforestation Threatens Argentina’s Grasslands,” World Birdwatch, September 2001, pp. 24–25. State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 2 23. WRI, op. cit. note 13, p. 104; Cosme Morillo and César Gómez-Campo, “Conservation in Spain, 1980–2000,” Biological Conservation, vol. 95, no. 2 (2000), p. 170. 24. Everglades conservation challenges from WRI, op. cit. note 13, p. 168–75; Doñana Park profile from World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), at <www.panda.org/europe/donana/>, viewed January 2002. 25. “Disaster Hits Doñana Wetland,” World Birdwatch, June 1998; “Doñana After the Spill,” World Birdwatch, December 1999, pp. 20–22; “EU Commissioner Brands Toxic Spill Firm Boliden ‘Filthy’ and ‘Crooks’,” El País, 15 August 2002. 26. WRI, op. cit. note 13, citing J. C. Ogden, “A Comparison of Wading Bird Nesting Colony Dynamics (1931–1946 and 1974–1989) as an Indication of Ecosystem Conditions in the Southern Everglades,” in S. M. Davis and J. C. Ogden, Everglades: The Ecosystem and Its Restoration (Delray Beach, FL: St. Lucie Press, 1994); Andy J. Green, “Clutch Size, Brood Size, and Brood Emergence in the Marbled Teal in the Marismas del Guadalquivir, Southwestern Spain,” Ibis, no. 140 (1998), pp. 670–75. 27. Luba V. Balian et al., “Changes in the Waterbird Community of the Lake Sevan–Lake Gilli Area, Republic of Armenia: A Case for Restoration,” Biological Conservation, vol. 106, no. 2 (2002), pp. 157–63. 28. Andy J. Green et al., “The Conservation Status of Moroccan Wetlands with Particular Reference to Waterbirds and to Changes Since 1978,” Biological Conservation, vol. 104, no. 1 (2002), pp. 71–82. 29. Scott Weidensaul, Living on the Wind: Across the Hemisphere with Migrating Birds (New York: North Point Press, 1999); Mary Deinlein, “Travel Alert for Migratory Birds: Stopover Sites in Decline,” Smithsonian Migratory Bird Center, at <natzoo.si.edu/smbc/fxshts/fxsht6.htm>, viewed May 2001; “Herons, Egrets, and Fish Ponds in Hong Kong,” Oryx, vol. 33, no. 1 (1999), p. 14; Brett A. Lane, Shorebirds in Australia (Melbourne, Australia: Nelson Publishers, 1987), pp. 2–9. 30. Weidensaul, op. cit. note 29, pp. 105–25, 243–46, 334. 31. Stattersfield et al., op. cit. note 11, pp. 154–57; Irma Trejo and Rodolfo Dirzo, “Deforestation of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest: A National and Local Analysis in Mexico,” Biological Conservation, vol. 94, no. 2 (2000), pp. 133–42. 32. John Terborgh, Where Have All the Birds Gone? (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1989), p. 149. 33. Jon Dunn and Kimball Garrett, A Field Guide to the Warblers of North America (New York: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1997), pp. 395–97; Kenn Kaufman, Lives of North American Birds (New York: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1996), p. 532; John H. Rappole, The Ecology of Migrant Songbirds: A Neotropical Perspective (Washington, DC: Smithsonian Institution Press, 1995), p. 86; Mary Deinlein, “Neotropical Migratory Bird Basics,” Smithsonian Migratory Bird Center, at <natzoo.si.edu/smbc/fxshts/fxsht9.htm>, viewed May 2001. 34. Peter P. Marra, Keith A. Hobson, and Richard T. Holmes, “Linking Winter and Summer Events in Migratory Birds by Using Stable-carbon Isotopes,” Science, 4 December 1998, pp. 1884–86; “Winter is Key to Songbird Breeding Success,” Environmental News Network, 8 December 1998. 35. Terborgh, op. cit. note 32, pp. 95, 146–47; National Geographic Society, Field Guide to the Birds of North America (Washington, DC: 1999), pp. 302–03; F. Gary Stiles and Alexander F. Skutch, A Guide to the Birds of Costa Rica (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1989), p. 306. 36. Stattersfield et al., op. cit. note 11, pp. 400–05, 27. 37. Gary K. Meffe and C. Ronald Carroll, Principles of Conservation Biology (Sunderland, MA: 183 State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 2 Sinauer Associates, Inc., 1997), pp. 276–302. 38. Ibid.; William F. Laurance et al., “Biomass Collapse in Amazonian Forest Fragments,” Science, 7 November 1997, pp. 1117–18. 39. Peter T. Fauth, “Reproductive Success of Wood Thrushes in Forest Fragments in Northern Indiana,” The Auk, vol. 117, no. 1 (2000), pp. 194–204; Cheryl L. Trine, “Wood Thrush Population Sinks and Implications for the Scale of Regional Conservation Strategies,” Conservation Biology, June 1998, pp. 576–85; David Ward and James N. M. Smith, “Brown-headed Cowbird Parasitism Results in a Sink Population in Warbling Vireos,” The Auk, vol. 117, no. 2 (2000), pp. 337–44. 40. Hugh A. Ford et al., “Why Have Birds in the Woodlands of Southern Australia Declined?” Biological Conservation, vol. 97, no. 1 (2001), pp. 71–88; Richard E. Major, Fiona J. Christie, and Greg Gowing, “Influence of Remnant and Landscape Attributes on Australian Woodland Bird Communities,” Biological Conservation, vol. 102, no. 1 (2001), pp. 47–66; Yosihiro Natuhara and Chobei Imai, “Prediction of Species Richness of Breeding Birds by Landscape-level Factors of Urban Woods in Osaka Prefecture, Japan,” Biodiversity and Conservation, vol. 8 (1999), pp. 239–53. 41. Richard T. T. Forman and Lauren E. Alexander, “Roads and Their Major Ecological Effects,” Annual Review of Ecological Systems, vol. 29 (1998), pp. 207–31. 42. David S. Wilkie, John G. Sidle, and Georges C. Boundzanga, “Mechanized Logging, Market Hunting, and a Bank Loan in Congo,” Conservation Biology, December 1992, pp. 570–579; U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), State of the World’s Forests 2001, at <www.fao.org/docrep/003/y0900e/y0900e00 .htm>, viewed February 2002; Stattersfield and Capper, op. cit. note 1, pp. 616–17. 43. J. Christopher Haney, “A Half-Century Comparison of Breeding Birds in the Southern Appalachians,” The Condor, vol. 103, pp. 268–77. 184 44. Kaufman, op. cit. note 33; Hawaiian Audubon Society, Hawaii’s Birds (Honolulu, HI: 1997), pp. 93–94; “100 of the World’s Worst Invasive Alien Species,” Invasive Species Specialist Group, at <www.iucn.org/biodiversity day/100booklet.pdf>, viewed January 2002. 45. “100 of the World’s Worst Invasive Alien Species,” op. cit. note 44; Stattersfield and Capper, op. cit. note 1, p. 8. 46. Thomas Brooks, “Extinct Species,” in Stattersfield and Capper, op. cit. note 1, pp. 701–08; Bibby, op. cit. note 10; John Tuxill, Losing Strands in the Web of Life: Vertebrate Declines and the Conservation of Biological Diversity, Worldwatch Paper 141 (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, May 1998), p. 16. 47. Chris Bright, Life Out of Bounds (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1998), pp. 114–18; Stattersfield and Capper, op. cit. note 1; William Claiborne, “Trouble in Paradise?: Serpentless Hawaii Fears Snake Invasion,” Washington Post, 23 August 1997. 48. Stattersfield and Capper, op. cit. note 1, pp. 45–72; D. J. Campbell and I. A. E. Atkinson, “Depression of Tree Recruitment by the Pacific Rat on New Zealand’s Northern Offshore Islands,” Biological Conservation, vol. 107, no. 1 (2002), pp. 19–35; M. Thorsen et al., “Norway Rats on Frégate Island, Seychelles: The Invasion, Subsequent Eradication Attempts and Implications for the Island’s Fauna,” Biological Conservation, vol. 96, no. 2 (2000), pp. 133–38; Mark D. Sanders and Richard F. Maloney, “Causes of Mortality at Nests of Ground-nesting Birds in the Upper Waitaki Basin, South Island, New Zealand: A Five-year Video Study,” Biological Conservation, vol. 106, no. 2 (2002), pp. 225–36. 49. Stattersfield and Capper, op. cit. note 1, pp. 701–07; Ford et al., op. cit. note 40, pp. 79–80, citing Paton 1991, 1993; “Domestic Cat Predation on Birds and Other Wildlife,” a report by the American Bird Conservancy at <www.abcbirds.org/ cats/catre/pdf>, viewed May 2002, citing the University of Wisconsin cat study from J. S. Coleman and S. A. Temple, “How Many Birds Do State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 2 Cats Kill?” Wildlife Control Technology, vol. 44 (1995); George W. Cox, Alien Species in North America and Hawaii (Washington, DC: Island Press, 1999), p. 220, citing R. Stallcup, “A Reversible Catastrophe,” Observer, spring/summer 1991, pp. 18–29. 50. Stattersfield and Capper, op. cit. note 1, pp. 73, 300; Eric Dorfman, “Alien Invasives in the Tropical Pacific,” Wingspan, vol. 11, no. 4 (2001), p. 23; “Attack of the Crazy Ants,” Time, 19 April 1999; “100 of the World’s Worst Invasive Alien Species,” op. cit. note 44. 51. Stattersfield and Capper, op. cit. note 1, pp. 73, 300. 52. Wilcove, op. cit. note 17, p. 47; Askins, op. cit. note 16, p. 234; Cox, op. cit. note 49, pp. 102–03; Kerry N. Rabenold et al., “Response of Avian Communities to Disturbance by an Exotic Insect in Spruce-Fir Forests of the Southern Appalachians,” Conservation Biology, February 1998. 53. “100 of the World’s Worst Invasive Alien Species,” op. cit. note 44; Stattersfield and Capper, op. cit. note 1, pp. 706–07. 54. “Reports from the Workshop on Indian Gyps Vultures,” a summary of recent studies presented at the fourth Eurasian Congress on Raptors in Seville, Spain, September 2001; reports available at The National Birds of Prey Centre Web site, at <www.nbpc.co.uk/ivr2001.htm>. 55. John H. Rappole, Scott R. Derrickson, and Zdenek Hubálek, “Migratory Birds and Spread of West Nile Virus in the Western Hemisphere,” Emerging Infectious Diseases (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), July/August 2000; Michael E. Ruane, “At-Risk Birds Also in Path of West Nile,” Washington Post, 21 April 2001. 56. Stattersfield and Capper, op. cit. note 1, p. 96; Cape Metropolitan Area, South Africa, at <www.cmc.gov.za/peh/soe/biota_1.htm>, viewed May 2002; Kaufman, op. cit. note 33, pp. 83–84; A. Green and B. Hughes, “Action Plan for the White-headed Duck in Europe,” in Globally Threatened Birds in Europe: Action Plans (Strasbourg: Council of Europe Publishing, 1996), pp. 119–45; “Tough Measures Against Invasive Ruddy Ducks,” World Birdwatch, March 2002, p. 4. 57. Richard Manning, Grassland: The History, Biology, Politics, and Promise of the American Prairie (New York: Penguin Books, 1995), pp. 178–80; Bright, op. cit. note 47, pp. 37–41; Kaufman, op. cit. note 33, p. 153. 58. “100 of the World’s Worst Invasive Alien Species,” op. cit. note 44; Stephanie Flack and Elaine Furlow, “America’s Least Wanted,” Nature Conservancy, November/December 1996, p. 22; Cox, op. cit. note 49, p. 178. 59. Amy Ferriter, ed., The Brazilian Pepper Management Plan for Florida: A Report from the Florida Exotic Pest Plant Council’s Brazilian Pepper Task Force, July 1997, at <www.fleppc.org/pdf/schi nus.pdf>, viewed March 2002; Cox, op. cit. note 49, p. 115; Ragupathy Kannan and Doublas A. James, “Common Myna,” No. 583 in The Birds of North America series (Philadelphia, PA: The Birds of North America, Inc., 2001). 60. Steve Mirsky, “Alien Invasion,” Audubon, May-June 1999, pp. 71–77. 61. David M. Richardson, “Forestry Trees as Invasive Aliens,” Conservation Biology, February 1998, pp. 18–25; Jim Hone, “Feral Pigs in Namadgi National Park, Australia: Dynamics, Impacts, and Management,” Biological Conservation, vol. 105, no. 2 (2002), pp. 231–42; David Pimentel et al., “Environmental and Economic Costs Associated with Non-indigenous Species in the United States,” BioScience, vol. 50, no. 1 (2000), pp. 53–65. 62. Howard Youth, “The Killing Fields,” Wildlife Conservation, July/August 1999, p. 16; BirdLife Malta at <www.birdlifemalta.org/>, viewed September 2002. 63. BirdLife Malta, op. cit. note 62; trapping sites from “5,317 Bird-Trapping Sites,” British Birds, July 2001, p. 335. 185 State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 2 64. British Birds, op. cit. note 63; “Working to Change Attitutes,” World Birdwatch, October 1999 ; “Dos Nuevos Informes Tratan de Impedir el ‘Parany’ en la Comunidad Valenciana,” La Garcilla, no. 111 (2001), p. 33; buntings from “Widespread Hunting of ‘Rice Birds’ in China,” World Birdwatch, September 2001, p. 8; “Migrating Birds Hunted in China,” Oryx, vol. 33, no. 3 (1999), p. 203; Chris Buckley, “China’s Sparrows Imperiled, Again,” International Herald Tribune, 4 April 2002; World Birdwatch, December 2001, p. 3. 65. Del Hoyo, Elliott, and Sargatal, Volume 2, op. cit. note 4, pp. 325–27, 336–41. 66. Ibid. and pp. 533–50. 67. Timothy F. Wright et al., “Nest Poaching in Neotropical Parrots,” Conservation Biology, June 2001; N. Snyder et al., eds., Parrots: Status Survey and Conservation Action Plan (Gland, Switzerland: IUCN, 1999). 68. Snyder et al., op. cit. note 67. 69. Ibid.; Stattersfield and Capper, op. cit. note 1, pp. 545, 594. 70. “Longlining: A Major Threat to the World’s Seabirds,” World Birdwatch, June 2000, pp. 10–14; American Bird Conservancy, “Sudden Death on the High Seas,” at <www.abcbirds.org/ policy/seabird_report.pdf>, viewed June 2002; Stattersfield and Capper, op. cit. note 1, pp. 45–53. 71. American Bird Conservancy, op. cit. note 70; “Keeping Albatrosses Off the Hook in the North Pacific,” World Birdwatch, June 2001, pp. 14–16. 72. Svein Løkkeborg and Graham Robertson, “Seabird and Longline Interactions: Effects of a Bird-scaring Streamer Line and Line Shooter on the Incidental Capture of Northern Fulmars,” Biological Conservation, vol. 106, no. 3 (2002), pp. 359–64; E. J. Belda and A. Sánchez, “Seabird Mortality on Longline Fisheries in the Western Mediterranean: Factors Affecting Bycatch and Proposed Mitigating Measures,” Biological Con- 186 servation, vol. 98, no. 3 (2001), pp. 357–63; Pablo Inchausti and Henri Weimerskirch, “Risks of Decline and Extinction of the Endangered Amsterdam Albatross and the Projected Impact of Long-line Fisheries,” Biological Conservation, vol. 100, no. 3 (2001), pp. 377–86. 73. BirdLife International, at <www.birdlife.org .uk/news>, viewed October 2002; “Agreement on the Conservation of Albatrosses and Petrels,” Environment Australia, at <www.ea.gov.au/bio diversity/international/albatross/>, viewed June 2002. 74. Susie Ellis, John P. Croxall, and John Cooper, eds., Penguin Conservation Assessment and Management Plan, on the September 1996 workshop in Cape Town, South Africa, organized by British Antarctic Survey, SCAR Bird Biology Subcommittee, Percy Fitzpatrick Institute of African Ornithology, and the Conservation Breeding Specialist Group of the IUCN/SSC (Apple Valley, MN: IUCN/SSC, August 1998). 75. Curtis Runyan and Magnar Norderhaug, “The Path to the Johannesburg Summit,” World Watch, May/June 2002, p. 33; Euan Dunn, “Europe’s Worst Ever Atlantic Coast Oil Spill Disaster,” World Birdwatch, March 2000. 76. Samantha Newport, “Oil Spill Highlights Hazards of Galápagos Isles’ Growth,” Washington Post, 27 January 2001; “Oil Spill Threatens Galapagos Islands,” Oryx, vol. 35, no. 2 (2001), p. 109; “La Especie de Gaviota Más Rara del Mundo Amenazada por el Vertido de Gasoil Producido en las Galápagos,” SEO/BirdLife, at <www.seo.org/es/noticias/nprensa.html>, viewed 25 January 2001; marine iguanas and oil from Andrew C. Revkin, “Iguanas Died after Spill,” International Herald Tribune, 6 June 2002. 77. John P. McCary and Anne L. Secord, “Possible Effects of PCB Contamination on Female Plumage Color and Reproductive Success in Hudson River Tree Swallows,” The Auk, vol. 117, no. 4 (2000), pp. 987–95. 78. Neil W. Tremblay and Andrew P. Gilman, “Human Health, the Great Lakes, and Environ- State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 2 mental Pollution: A 1994 Perspective,” Environmental Health Perspectives, vol. 103, supp. 9 (1995), pp. 3–5; John P. Giesy, “Dioxins and Dioxin-like Residues in and Their Effects on Fish and Wildlife of the North American Great Lakes,” at <www.niehs.nih.gov/external/usvcrp/conf20 02/abs_pdf/diox-041.pdf>, viewed August 2002. 79. Mary Deinlein, “When it Comes to Pesticides, Birds are Sitting Ducks,” Smithsonian Migratory Bird Center at <natzoo.si.edu/smbc/fxshts/ fxsht8.htm>, viewed April 2001; British sparrowhawks from G. R. Potts, The Partridge: Pesticides, Predation and Conservation (London: Collins, 1986), as cited in Dan E. Chamberlain and Humphrey Q. P. Crick, “Population Declines and Reproductive Performance of Skylarks in Different Regions and Habitats of the United Kingdom,” Ibis, vol. 141 (1999), pp. 38–51; pesticide treaty from Anne Platt McGinn, “Malaria, Mosquitoes, and DDT,” World Watch, May/June 2002, pp. 10–16; “WWF Efforts to Phase Out DDT,” WWF Global Toxics Initiative, at <www.worldwildlife.org/toxics/progareas/pop/ ddt.htm>, viewed May 2002. 80. Deinlein, op. cit. note 79; “Agreement Reached to Save Swainson’s Hawks,” press release (Washington, DC: American Bird Conservancy, 15 October 1996); Santiago Krapovickas, “Swainson’s Hawk in Argentina: International Crisis and Cooperation,” World Birdwatch, December 1997; “Swainson’s Hawk Recovery,” World Birdwatch, March 1997. 81. Krapovickas, op. cit. note 80; “Swainson’s Hawk Recovery,” op. cit. note 80. 82. Potts, op. cit. note 79; J. Hellmich, “Impacto del Uso de Pesticidas Sobre Las Aves: El Caso de la Avutarda,” Ardeola, vol. 39, no. 2 (1992), pp. 7–22. 83. “Service Continues to Expand Non-toxic Shot Options—Study Shows Ban on Lead Shot Saves Millions of Waterfowl,” press release (Washington, DC: U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, 25 October 2000); “Lead Shot Ban Throughout Sweden,” Oryx, vol. 33, no. 3 (1999), p. 198; A. Acosta, “El Gobierno Prohíbe la Caza y el Tiro con Plomo en los Humedales Españoles,” ABC, 31 May 2001. 84. “Service Continues to Expand Non-toxic Shot Options,” op. cit. note 83; “El Plomo se Aleja de las Aves,” Biológica, November 2001, p. 9; Steve Nadis, “Getting the Lead Out,” National Wildlife, August/September 2001, pp. 46–50; “EPA to Ban Lead Fishing Sinkers,” EDF Letter, September 1993; “State Acts for Loons,” Oryx, vol. 33, no. 4 (1999), pp. 285–93. 85. Guyonne F. E. Janss, “Avian Mortality from Power Lines: A Morphologic Approach of a Species-specific Mortality,” Biological Conservation, vol. 95, no. 3 (2000), pp. 353–59; “Entre Ondas Electromagnéticas,” Biológica, June 2002, p. 12; Juan C. Alonso, Javier A. Alonso, and Rodrigo Muñoz-Pulido, “Mitigation of Bird Collisions with Transmission Lines Through Groundwire Marking,” Biological Conservation, vol. 67 (1994), pp. 129–34; Kjetil Bevanger and Henrik Brøseth, “Bird Collisions with Power Lines—An Experiment with Ptarmigan,” Biological Conservation, vol. 99, no. 3 (2001), pp. 341–46. 86. “Environmental Groups File Petition Demanding Halt to All Construction of Communication Towers in Gulf Coast—-Say Threat to Birds Must be Addressed,” press release (Washington, DC: American Bird Conservancy and Forest Conservation Council, 28 August 2002); “U.S.A. Towerkill Summary,” at <www.tower kill.com/issues/consum.html>, viewed March 2002; Wendy K. Weisensel, “Battered by Airwaves?” Wisconsin Natural Resources, February 2000, at <www.wnrmag.com/stories/2000/ feb00/birdtower.htm>, viewed March 2002. 87. “U.S.A. Towerkill Summary,” op. cit. note 86; Weisensel, op. cit. note 86, based on Federal Aviation Administration figures. 88. McCarty, op. cit. note 12. 89. Ibid.; Mones S. Abu-Asab et al., “Earlier Plant Flowering in Spring as a Response to Global Warming in the Washington, DC, Area,” Biodiversity and Conservation, vol. 10 (2001), pp. 597–612; Alvin Breisch and James Gibbs, “Climate 187 State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 2 Warming and Calling Phenology of Frogs Near Ithaca, New York, 1900–1999,” Conservation Biology, August 2001, pp. 1175–78; Bright, op. cit. note 47, pp. 191–94; Abu-Asab et al., op. cit. this note. 90. Askins, op. cit. note 16, p. 44; D. B. Botkin, D. A. Woodby, and R. A. Nisbet, “Kirtland’s Warbler Habitats: A Possible Early Indicator of Climatic Warming,” Biological Conservation, vol. 56, no. 1 (1991), pp. 63–78. 91. Christoph Zockler and Igor Lysenko, “Water Birds on the Edge: Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Arctic-breeding Water Birds,” Executive Summary, Biodiversity and Climate Change Web site, U.N. Environment Programme and World Conservation Monitoring Centre, <unepwcmc.org/climate/waterbirds/executive.htm>, viewed March 2002. 92. “Galapagos Penguins Under Threat,” World Birdwatch, December 1998; Stattersfield and Capper, op. cit. note 1, p. 43; Maarten Kappelle, Margret M. I. Van Vuuren, and Pieter Baas, “Effects of Climate Change on Biodiversity: A Review and Identification of Key Research Issues,” Biodiversity and Conservation, vol. 8 (1999), pp. 1383–97; Glen Martin, “The Case of the Disappearing Ducks,” National Wildlife, April/May 2002. 93. McCarty, op. cit. note 12; Meffe and Carroll op. cit. note 37, p. 299; Cox, op. cit. note 49, pp. 310–11; L. Hannah et al., “Conservation of Biodiversity in a Changing Climate,” Conservation Biology, February 2002, pp. 264–68. 94. Russell A. Mittermeier, Norman Myers, and Jorgen B. Thomsen, “Biodiversity Hotspots and Major Tropical Wilderness Areas: Approaches to Setting Conservation Priorities,” Conservation Biology, June 1998, pp. 516–20. 95. Stattersfield, op. cit. note 8. 96. Ibid.; L. D. C. Fishpool and Michael I. Evans, eds., Important Bird Areas in Africa and its Associated Islands (Cambridge, U.K.: BirdLife International, 2001); Melanie F. Heath et al., Important Bird Areas in Europe (Cambridge, U.K.: BirdLife 188 International, 2001); Nigel J. Collar et al., eds., Threatened Birds of Asia: The BirdLife International Red Data Book (Cambridge, U.K.: BirdLife International, 2001); BirdLife International, at <www.birdlife.net/sites/ibaprogramme.cfm>, viewed March 2002; Stattersfield et al., op. cit. note 11, p. 29; Box 2–2 from Duan Biggs, BirdLife South Africa, e-mail to author, August 2002, and from Stephen W. Evans, “Blue Swallow Action Plan Workshop,” BirdLife South Africa, at <www.birdlife.org.za/news/news_front.cfm?ipkNe wsID=334>, viewed August 2002. 97. Meffe and Carroll, op. cit. note 37, pp. 7–21. 98. WRI, op. cit. note 13, p. 244; 8.8 percent from M. J. B. Green and J. R. Paine, “State of the World’s Protected Areas at the End of the Twentieth Century,” presented at the IUCN World Commission on Protected Areas Symposium at Albany, Australia, November 1997 (figure includes marine reserves). 99. Richard L. Knight, “Private Lands: The Neglected Geography,” Conservation Biology, April 1999, pp. 223–24; Catherine M. Allen and Stephen R. Edwards, “The Sustainable-Use Debate: Observations from IUCN,” Oryx, vol. 29, no. 2 (1995), pp. 92–98; Jon Paul Rodríguez, “Impact of Venezuelan Economic Crisis on Wild Populations of Animals and Plants,” Biological Conservation, vol. 96, no. 2 (2000), pp. 151–59. 100. Jeffrey A. McNeely and Sara J. Scherr, Common Ground, Common Future (Washington, DC, and Gland, Switzerland: Future Harvest and IUCN, 2001). 101. Robert A. Rice and Justin R. Ward, Coffee, Conservation, and Commerce in the Western Hemisphere (Washington, DC: Smithsonian Migratory Bird Center and Natural Resources Defense Council, June 1996); Lisa J. Petit, “Shade-grown Coffee: It’s for the Birds,” Endangered Species Bulletin, July/August 1998, pp. 14–15; Brian Halweil, “Why Your Daily Fix Can Fix More than Your Head,” World Watch, May/June 2002, pp. 36–40. 102. “La Biodiversidad en Torno a la Aceituna,” Bio Andalucia, June 2002, p. 37; cacao, inte- State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 2 grated pest management, and organic farming from mission statement for 1998 sustainable cacao conference, Smithsonian Migratory Bird Center and Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Panama City, Panama, 30 March 1998, at <natzoo.si.edu/smbc/Research/Cacao/cacaomis sion.htm>, viewed February 2002; “The Biodiversity Benefits of Organic Farming,” Soil Association briefing paper, 27 May 2000, at <www.soilassociation.org/>, viewed April 2002. 103. 2002 Farm Bill, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), at <www.fsa.usda.gov/pas/farm bill/fbfaqhome.asp>, viewed June 2002; Farm Service Agency, USDA, “The Conservation Reserve Program,” PA-1603, revised October 2001; Tina Adler, “Prairie Tales: What Happens When Farmers Turn Prairies into Farmland and Farmland into Prairies,” Science News, 20 January 1996, pp. 44–45; Dan L. Reinking, “A Closer Look: Henslow’s Sparrow,” Birding, April 2002, pp. 146–53, citing J. R. Herkert, “Population Trends of the Henslow’s Sparrow in Relation to the Conservation Reserve Program in Illinois, 1975–1995,” Journal of Field Ornithology, vol. 68, pp. 235–44. 104. D. W. Macdonald and P. J. Johnson, “Farmers and the Custody of the Countryside: Trends in Loss and Conservation of Non-productive Habitats 1981–1998,” Biological Conservation, vol. 94, no. 2 (2000), pp. 221–34; M. Ausden and G. J. M. Hirons, “Grassland Nature Reserves for Breeding Wading Birds in England and the Implications for the ESA Agri-environment Scheme,” Biological Conservation, vol. 106, no. 2 (2002), pp. 279–91. 105. C. J. M. Musters et al., “Breeding Birds as a Farm Product,” Conservation Biology, April 2001, pp. 363–69; C. J. M. Musters, Environmental Biology Institute of Evolutionary and Ecological Sciences, Leiden University, The Netherlands, e-mail to author, May 2002. 106. “California Compromise: Farmers Flood Fields for Birds,” Audubon Activist, April 1993, p. 7; “Rice Habitat Swells,” at <www.abag.ca.gov/ bayarea/sfep/news/newsletter/est9712.html>, viewed December 2001. 107. SEO/BirdLife, “SEO/BirdLife Promueve el Cultivo de Arroz Ecológico en el Delta del Ebro Través de Riet Vell, Una Empresa Constituida por sus Cocios y Simpatizantes,” press release (Madrid: 8 June 2001); “La Fundación Avina Apoya el Delta del Ebro,” La Garcilla, no. 111 (2001), p. 42. 108. Martha Honey, Ecotourism and Sustainable Development: Who Owns Paradise? (Washington, DC: Island Press, 1999), pp. 3–25. 109. Thomas S. Hoctor, Margaret H. Carr, and Paul D. Zwick, “Identifying a Linked Reserve System Using a Regional Landscape Approach: The Florida Ecological Network,” Conservation Biology, August 2000, pp. 984–1000. 110. Ibid. 111. Randy S. Kautz and James A. Cox, “Stategic Habitats for Biodiversity Conservation in Florida,” Conservation Biology, February 2001, pp. 55–77. 112. The Nature Conservancy, Nature Conservancy Landmarks: A Quarterly Report (Arlington, VA: spring 2002), p. 14. 113. Ibid.; Florida Forever, at <www.dep.sta te.fl.us/lands/carl__ff>, viewed May 2002. 114. William Shepard, “Birding Trails in North America,” Birding, vol. 33, no. 5 (2001), pp. 416–27; “Birding Florida on the Great Birding Trail,” at <www.floridabirdingtrail.com>, viewed April 2002. 115. Shepard, op. cit. note 114. 116. U.S. Department of Interior and U.S. Department of Commerce, 2001 National Survey of Fishing, Hunting, and Wildlife-Associated Recreation: National Overview, May 2002, at <www.fws.gov/>, viewed June 2002. 117. H. Ken Cordell and Nancy G. Herbert, “The Popularity of Birding is Still Growing,” Birding, vol. 34, no. 1 (2002), pp. 54–61. 189 State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTERS 2 AND 3 118. Frank Gill et al., American Birds: Ninetyninth Christmas Bird Count (CBC) (New York: National Audubon Society, 1999); U.S. Geological Survey CBC introduction, at <www.mp1-pwrc .usgs.gov/birds/cbc.html#intro>, viewed April 2002; 101st CBC summary, at <www.audubon .org/bird/cbc/101stsummary.html>, viewed April 2002. Reserve Kenya,” brochure (Nairobi/Lamu: 2001). 121. Ibid., p. 167. 2. Based on author’s visit, May 2002, and on WWF and KWS, op. cit. note 1; Lamu Archipeligo population growth from Johnson M. Kazunga et al., Socio-economic Root Causes of Biodiversity Loss in the Priority Sites of the East African Marine Ecoregion, Country: Kenya, Priority Sites: LamuKiunga and Mida-Malindi (Kenya/Tanzania: WWF, October 2001), p. 2; East African coast population growth from WWF, Tanzania Program Office, The Eastern African Marine Ecoregion: A Large-scale Approach to the Management of Biodiversity (Dar es Salaam: 2001), p. 7; Kenya population growth rate and global rate from U.N. Population Division (UNPD), World Population Prospects: The 2000 Revision, CD-ROM edition, (New York: 2001). 122. U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, “The Peregrine Falcon is Back: Babbitt Announces Removal of World’s Fastest Bird from Endangered Species List,” press release (Washington, DC: 1999); U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, “The Bald Eagle is Back,” press release (Washington, DC: 2 July 1999). The bald eagle remained on the Endangered Species List through 2001 and into 2002. 3. Based on author’s visit, May 2002, and on Julie Church, project executant, WWF/KWS Kiunga Marine National Reserve project, EAME Support to the Secondary School Girls Scholarship Program, Kiunga Marine National Reserve Area, Lamu District, Kenya, Progress Report, January 2001 to January 2002, report prepared for World Wildlife Fund, pp. 3–4. 123. Red kite from Ward J. M. Hagemeijer and Michael J. Blair, eds., The EBCC Atlas of European Breeding Birds: Their Distribution and Abundance (London: T & A D Poyser, 1997), pp. 134–35. 4. Based on author’s visit, May 2002. 5. Ibid.; Church, op. cit. note 3. 119. Asian Waterbird Census from <www.wet lands.agro.nl/wetlands_icu/ap/inf2000.doc>, viewed May 2002; other citizen science projects from <www.birdsource.org>, viewed May 2002. 120. Stattersfield and Capper, op. cit. note 1, pp. 453. 124. Stattersfield and Capper, op. cit. note 1, pp. 280–81. 125. Ibid., pp. 122, 417. 126. Ibid., p. 257; “Lear’s Macaw Population Increase,” World Birdwatch, March 2002, p. 3. 127. Filion quoted in Diamond and Filion, op. cit. note 4, p. 8. Chapter 3. Linking Population,Women, and Biodiversity 1. Based on author’s visit, May 2002, and on World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and Kenya Wildlife Services (KWS), “Kiunga Marine National 190 6. Biodiversity from “Everglades National Park Information Page,” Everglades National Park, at <www.everglades.national-park.com/info.htm #eco>, viewed 29 July 2002; history from G. Thomas Bancroft, “United States of America: The Everglades National Park,” presented at Human Population, Biodiversity, and Protected Areas: Science and Policy Issues, American Association for the Advancement of Science, 20–21 April 1995, Washington, DC; new development from Michael Grunwald, “Growing Pains in Southwest Fla.,” Washington Post, 25 June 2002; panther population from National Wildlife Federation, People & Wildlife: A World Connected (Washington, DC: 2002). 7. New development and restoration plan from Grunwald, op. cit. note 6; impact of growing State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 3 populations from Bancroft, op. cit. note 6; Florida population growth from U.S. Census Bureau, “State and County QuickFacts: Florida,” at <quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/12000.html>, viewed 20 July 2002; Lee and Collier county population growth from “Florida Population Change for Counties sorted in Alphabetical Order,” Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, 29 April 2002, at <eire.census.gov/popest/data/counties/tables/ CO-EST2001-08/CO-EST2001-08-12.php>, viewed 20 July 2002. 8. Figure 3–1 and other population data from UNPD, op. cit. note 2; new projections expected from Stan Bernstein, Senior Research Adviser, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), New York, discussion with author, 27 September 2002, based on research presented at UNPD meetings in 2001 and 2002. 9. Preamble, Convention on Biological Diversity, United Nations, June 1992, at <www.bio div.org/convention/articles.asp>, viewed 27 September 2002; United Nations, Agenda 21: The United Nations Programme of Action from Rio (New York: U.N. Department of Public Information, undated), Chapter 24. 10. U.N. Development Programme (UNDP), Human Development Report 2002 (New York: Oxford University Press, 2002), pp. 22–23. 11. Amartya Sen, “Population and Gender Equality,” The Nation, 24/31 July 2000, p. 18. 12. China from Conservation International, “Biodiversity Hotspots: Mountains of Southwest China,” at <www.biodiversityhotspots.org/xp/ Hotspots/china/>, viewed 19 September 2002; Eastern Himalayas from Paul Harrison and Fred Pearce, American Association for the Advancement of Science Atlas of Population and Environment (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2000); Central Africa and Danube River Basin from Alexander Wood, Pamela Stedman-Edwards, and Johanna Mang, eds., The Root Causes of Biodiversity Loss (London: Earthscan, 2000). 13. Root causes from Wood, Stedman-Edwards, and Mang, op. cit. note 12, p. 15. Box 3–1 from the following: definition of biodiversity from World Resources Institute (WRI), “What is Biological Diversity?” at <www.wri.org/biodiv/biodiv.html>, viewed 7 July 2002; resilience of ecosystems from Anthony C. Janetos, “Do We Still Need Nature? The Importance of Biological Diversity,” Consequences, vol. 3, no. 1 (1997), p. 9; value of ecosystem ser vices from Andrew Balmford et al., “Economic Reasons for Conserving Wild Nature,” Science, 9 August 2002, p. 950; estimates of forest loss over past 100 years from WRI et al., World Resources 2000–2001 (Washington, DC: WRI, 2000), p. 51; data on forest loss from U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000 (Rome: 2001), pp. 9–10; Nepal comparison from Oxford Desk Reference Atlas (New York: Oxford University Press, 2001), p. viii; forest biodiversity from U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP), Global Environment Outlook 3 (London: Earthscan, 2002), p. 94; Central American, mangrove, wetland, and grassland losses from WRI et al., op. cit. this note, p. 51; species loss from IUCN–World Conservation Union, 2002 IUCN Red List of Threatened Species (Gland, Switzerland: 2002); past extinctions from UNEP, op. cit. this note, pp. 121–22. 14. India from World Commission on Forests and Sustainable Development, Our Forests, Our Future (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1999), p. 59, and from Madhav Gadgil and Ramachandra Guha, This Fissured Land: An Ecological History of India (Delhi: Oxford University Press, 1992), cited in WRI et al., op. cit. note 13, p. 10; Newfoundland from Lenard Milich, “Resource Management Versus Sustainable Livelihoods: The Collapse of the Newfoundland Cod Fishery,” Society and Natural Resources, 1 September 1999, pp. 625–42, cited in ibid. 15. Footprint from WWF, UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre, and Redefining Progress, Living Planet Report 2002 (Gland, Switzerland: WWF, June 2002), p. 4; vehicles and carbon emissions from UNDP, Human Development Report 1998 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1998), pp. 2, 4. 16. Family size decline from UNPD, op. cit. note 2; U.S. Census Bureau, “Largest Census- 191 State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 3 to-Census Population Increase in U.S. History as Every State Gains, Census Bureau Reports,” press release (Washington, DC: 2 April 2001); U.S. population current and expected from UNPD, op. cit. note 2; U.S. fertility rates from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “Women are Having More Children, New Report Shows,” press release (Atlanta, GA: 12 February 2002); planets from Peter H. Raven, “Foreword” in Harrison and Pearce, op. cit. note 12, p. x; Bill McKibben, Maybe One: A Personal and Environmental Argument for Single-Child Families (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1998), p. 12. 17. UNFPA, The State of World Population 2001 (New York: 2001), pp. 2–3. 18. Wood, Stedman-Edwards, and Mang, op. cit. note 12, pp. 40–41. Box 3–2 from the following: species from World Wildlife Fund, The Western Congo Basin Moist Forest: An Endangered Space (Washington, DC: 2001), p. 1; tropical wilderness designation from Conservation International, “Conservation Strategies: Tropical Wilderness: Congo Forest,” at <www.conserva tion.org/xp/CIWEB/strategies/tropical_wilder ness/tropical_wilderness.xml#congo>, viewed 19 September 2002; details of bushmeat trade, income from hunting, and Congo Basin population from Bushmeat Crisis Task Force, Bushmeat: A Wildlife Crisis in West and Central Africa and Around the World (Silver Spring, MD: 2000); food insecurity from FAO, The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2000 (Rome: 2000), p. 4; population growth rates from UNPD, op. cit. note 2; schooling rates from UNESCO, 1999 UNESCO Statistical Yearbook (Paris: 1999), and from UNESCO, World Education Report 2000 (Paris: 2000), with literacy data from UNESCO, February 2000 assessment, all cited in UNFPA, op. cit. note 17. 19. Hotspots designation from Norman Myers et al., “Biodiversity Hotspots for Conservation Priorities,” Nature, 24 February 2000, pp. 853–58; Figures 3–2 and 3–3 based on Richard P. Cincotta and Robert Engelman, Nature’s Place: Human Population and the Future of Biological Diversity (Washington, DC: Population Action International, 2000), pp. 40–41, 56–63. 192 20. Population growth in hotspots and reasons from UNFPA, op. cit. note 17, p. 22, from Wood, Stedman-Edwards, and Mang, op. cit. note 12, pp. 63–65, and from Cincotta and Engelman, op. cit. note 19, pp. 63–64; rural-to-rural migration from UNPD, Population, Environment and Development: The Concise Report (New York: United Nations, 2001), p. 29. 21. UNFPA, Population & Sustainable Development: Five Years After Rio (New York: 1999), p. 23; Cincotta and Engelman, op. cit. note 19, pp. 41, 63–64. 22. World Wildlife Fund, Conservation Strategies Unit, Disappearing Landscapes: The Population/Environment Connection (Washington, DC: 2001), pp. 15–18. 23. Daily rural-to-urban migration from UNEP, Global Environment Outlook 2000 (Nairobi: 1999), p. 47; urban population and migration data from UNPD, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision; Data Tables and Highlights (New York: United Nations, 2002), pp. 1–2; impacts of fast urban growth from United Nations, Economic and Social Council, “Demographic Dynamics and Sustainability,” Report of the Secretary-General, Commission on Sustainable Development acting as the preparatory committee for the World Summit on Sustainable Development, Organizational Session, 30 April–2 May 2001, p. 2; women-headed households from FAO, Gender and Food Security, Division of Labor, Facts and Figures, at <www.fao.org/gender/en/labb2-e.htm>, viewed 29 July 2002. 24. Urbanization and infrastructure from Jonathan G. Nash and Roger-Mark De Souza, Making the Link: Population, Health, Environment (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 2002); impacts of sprawl from Sierra Club, “Sprawl Factsheet,” at <www.sierraclub.org/ sprawl/factsheet.asp>, viewed 19 September 2002. 25. Past and expected rural population growth from UNPD, op. cit. note 23, pp. 46–49. 26. Women farmers from FAO, op. cit. note 23. State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 3 27. Marc Lacey, “To Fuel the Mideast’s Grills, Somalia Smolders,” New York Times, 25 July 2002. 1993), pp. 3–5; UNFPA, op. cit. note 17, pp. 38–39, 41. 28. Conservation International, IUCN, The Nature Conservancy, WRI, and WWF, Conservation in the 21st Century (Washington, DC: September 1999); Lorena Aguilar, Executive Summary—The Unavoidable Current: Gender Policies for the Environmental Sector in Mesoamerica (Gland, Switzerland: IUCN, 2002); Lorena Aguilar, senior gender advisor, IUCN, Moravia, Costa Rica, discussion with author, 30 July 2002. 32. Mayling Simpson-Hebert, “Water, Sanitation, and Women’s Health: The Health Burden of Carrying Water,” Environmental Health Newsletter (World Health Organization), 1995, cited in Justine Sass, Women, Men, and Environmental Change: The Gender Dimensions of Environmental Policies and Programs (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 2002), p. 4. 29. United Nations, The Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development (New York: 1994); fertility decline from United Nations, Economic and Social Council, Commission on Population and Development, Concise Report on World Population Monitoring, 2000: Population, Gender, and Development (New York: 2001), p. 10; women’s rights and management of natural resources from Carolyn Gibb Vogel and Robert Engelman, Forging the Link: Emerging Accounts of Population and Environment Work in Communities (Washington, DC: Population Action International, 1999), pp. 33–36, and from UNFPA, op. cit. note 17, pp. 40–41; World Bank, Engendering Development: Through Gender Equality in Rights, Resources, and Voice (New York: Oxford University Press, 2001); impact of education from Population Council and Rockefeller Foundation, Accelerating Girls’ Education: A Priority for Governments (New York: Population Council, 1995), and from World Bank, World Development Report 1993 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993), pp. 42–43. 30. Gender and resources from UNFPA, op. cit. note 17, pp. 37–41; land tenure estimate from Katherine Spengler, “Expansion of Third World Women’s Empowerment: The Emergence of Sustainable Development and Evolution of International Economic Strategy,” Colorado Journal of International Environmental Law and Policy, summer 2001, p. 320. 31. Rekha Mehra, Gender in Community Development and Resource Management: An Overview (Washington, DC: International Center for Research on Women and World Wildlife Fund, 33. Women’s agricultural work from Mehra, op. cit. note 31, p. 4; data on agricultural labor force and women’s workloads from FAO, op. cit. note 23. 34. Mary Hill Rojas, Working with CommunityBased Conservation with a Gender Focus: A Guide (Gainesville, FL: MERGE, Center for Latin American Studies, University of Florida, June 2000), p. 4. 35. Bina Agarwal, Are We Not Peasants Too?: Land Rights and Women’s Claims in India (New York: Population Council, 2002), pp. 5–7. 36. Mehra, op. cit. note 31, pp. 11, 16, 18. 37. Namibian Association of Community Based Natural Resource Management Support Organizations, Namibia’s Community-Based Natural Resource Management Programme: Enhancing Conservation, Development and Democracy in Namibia’s Rural Areas (Windhoek, Namibia: 2001), p. 14. 38. Agnes Quisumbing, Senior Research Fellow, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, discussion with Brian Halweil and Danielle Nierenberg, 24 July 2001; El Salvador from Sass, op. cit. note 32, p. 3. 39. India from UNFPA, op. cit. note 17, p. 39; Nigeria and Louisiana from Women’s Environment and Development Organization (WEDO), Risks, Rights, and Reforms: A 50-Country Survey Assessing Government Actions Five Years After the International Conference on Population and Development (New York: 1999), pp. 17, 48. Box 193 State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 3 3–3 from the following: Maathai quote from Ethirajan Anbarasan, “Wangari Muta Maathai: Kenya’s Green Militant,” UNESCO Courier, December 1999; Green Belt founding and network from Frances Moore Lappé and Anna Lappé, Hope’s Edge: The Next Diet for a Small Planet (New York: Jeremy P. Tarcher/Putnam, 2002), pp. 170–71; 1999 estimates from Wangari Maathai, The Green Belt Movement: Sharing the Approach and the Experience (New York: Lantern Books, 2002), p. 63; tree planting, crops, conservation activities, and income generation from Lappé and Lappé, op. cit. this note, pp. 167–93; final Maathai quote from Kerry Kennedy Cuomo, Speaking Truth to Power (New York: Crown Publishers/Random House, 2001), cited in “Human Rights Heroes,” Ms., April/May 2001, pp. 58–60. 40. Information on gender and conservation organizations from WIDTECH, Mainstreaming Gender in Conservation (Washington, DC: Development Alternatives, Inc., May 2002). Box 3–4 from the following: gender and environment in industrial nations from Susan Buckingham-Hatfield, Gender and Environment (London: Routledge, 2000), pp. 1, 74, 98, and from Stakeholder Forum, “Gender and Sustainable Consumption: Bridging Policy Gaps in the Context of Chapter 4, Agenda 21, Changing Consumption and Production Patterns,” April 1999, at <www.unedfo rum.org/publ/consumption/summary.htm>, viewed 6 July 2002; food safety and gender from Buckingham-Hatfield, op. cit. this note, p. 74; receptivity to shifts from Stakeholder Forum, op. cit. this note; green electricity from Matthew J. Kotchen, Michael R. Moore, and Christopher F. Clark, “Environmental Voluntary Contracts Between Individuals and Industry: An Analysis of Consumer Preferences for Green Electricity,” in Eric W. Orts and Kurt Deketelaere, eds., Environmental Contracts: Comparative Approaches to Regulatory Innovation in the United States and Europe (London: Kluwer Law International, 2001), p. 419; statement excerpt from “Final Conclusions, Meeting of Women Leaders on the Environment, 7–8 March 2002, March 2002, Helsinki, Finland,” at <www.mtnforum.org/ resources/library/mwlen02a.htm>, viewed 9 September 2002. 194 41. Population policies from Gayle D. Ness with Meghan V. Golay, Population and Strategies for National Development (London: Earthscan, 1997), pp. 92–95; population and environment in current policies from UNPD, World Population Monitoring 2001 (New York: United Nations, 2001), pp. 24–27. 42. Poverty from World Bank, “New World Bank Report Urges Broader Approach to Reducing Poverty,” press release (Washington, DC: 12 September 2000); children not in school from UNESCO, Education for All: Year 2000 Assessment, Statistical Document (Paris: UNESCO, 2000), p. 10; research on fertility and girls’ education from Population Reference Bureau/Measure Communication, Is Education the Best Contraceptive? Policy Brief (Washington, DC: 2000); Figure 3–4 based on total fertility rates from UNPD, op. cit. note 2, and on female secondary school enrolment rates for school years 1998–99 and 1999–2000 (or an average if data for both years were available), from UNESCO, Institute for Statistics, Education Sector, Gross and Net Enrolment Ratio at Secondary School Level by Countr y and by Gender for the School Years 1998/1999 and 1999/2000 (Paris: 2002); illiteracy data from UNESCO, Institute for Statistics, Literacy and Non-Formal Education Sector, Regional and Adult Illiteracy Rate and Population by Gender (Paris: UNESCO, 2002); changes in women’s access from UNESCO, “Statistics Show Slow Progress Toward Universal Literacy,” press release (Paris: 2 September 2002); UNDP, op. cit. note 10. 43. Contraceptive usage figures from UNPD, “Majority of World’s Couples Are Using Contraception,” press release (New York: 20 May 2002); 350 million from UNFPA, The State of World Population 1999 (New York: 1999), p. 2; estimates of unmet need from John A. Ross and William L. Winfrey, “Unmet Need in the Developing World and the Former USSR: An Updated Estimate,” unpublished manuscript, received 1 November 2001. 44. Financial resources from UNFPA, op. cit. note 17, p. 52. State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 3 45. John C. Caldwell, “The Contemporary Population Challenge,” prepared for Expert Group Meeting on Completing the Fertility Transition, UNPD, New York, 11–14 March 2002; Robert Engelman, vice president, research, Population Action International, Washington, DC, e-mail to author, 26 September 2002; industrial-country policies from UNPD, op. cit. note 41. 46. Components of community-based programs from Population Action International, “Community-Based Population and Environment Programs: Integrating Resource Conservation and Reproductive Health,” fact sheet (Washington, DC: 2001). 51. Biodiversity details from Conservation International, “Conservation Regions: Asia-Pacific, Melanesia,” at <www.conservation.org/xp/ CIWEB/regions/asia_pacific/melanesia/melane sia.xml>, viewed 19 September 2002; program information from WWF—Solomon Islands, “Raising Awareness on Population and Environment Issues in Western and Choiseul Provinces of the Bismarck Solomon Seas Ecoregion,” unpublished proposal, January 2002; gender equity policy from World Wildlife Fund, Conservation Strategies Unit, Social Dimensions in a Biological World: Integrating Gender and Conservation in Priority Ecoregions (Washington, DC: 2001), pp. 13–14; fertility figure from UNPD, op. cit. note 2. 47. Tropical rainforest from UNESCO, Biosphere Reserves: Special Places for People and Nature (Paris: 2002); program information from Conservation International, “Conservation International’s Field-Based Population-Environment Programs,” unpublished document, 2002. 52. Statement by Thoraya Ahmed Obaid, executive director, UNFPA, at Panel Discussion at the Third Preparatory Committee for the Johannesburg Summit, New York, 29 January 2002. 48. “Building Organizational Capacity for Integrated Reproductive Health Programs,” World Neighbors in Action, spring/summer 2001; World Neighbors, “World Neighbors—Ecuador Annual Report, October 2001,” unpublished report, 2001; World Neighbors, “Three Year Program Plan FY 02—Integral Development Bolivar,” unpublished document, 2002. 54. Nepal from author’s discussions with WWF— Nepal Program Office staff, other conservation practitioners, program participants, and government agency staff, Kathmandu, Phakding, and Namche, March 2002; Tanzania from author’s discussions with WWF—Tanzania Program Office staff, Dar es Salaam, May 2002. 49. Working for Water, at <www.dwaf.gov.za/ wfw/>, viewed 27 September 2002; Caroline Hanks, “The Working for Water Program in South Africa,” Women’s Health Project Newsletter, August 2000, pp. 4–5; Cape Floral Kingdom from Conservation Planning Unit, Scientific Services Division, Western Cape Nature Conservation Board, Footprints in the Fynbos: Humans and Biodiversity Meet in the Cape Floristic Region (Stellenbosch, South Africa: June 2002), p. 5. 50. Jane Goodall Institute, at <www.janegood all.org/jgi/programs/tacare.html>, viewed 6 July 2002; Jane Goodall Institute, “TACARE Project Annual Report 2001,” unpublished report, 2002; Christina Ellis, director, Africa Programs, Jane Goodall Institute, e-mail to author, 30 July 2002. 53. Conservation International, op. cit. note 47. 55. Figure on adolescents from UNPD, op. cit. note 2; World Bank, “Bangladesh: Girls’ Education Gets US$121 Million in World Bank Support,” press release (Washington, DC: 12 March 2002); “Early Marriage Linked to High Maternal Mortality, UNICEF Says,” UN Wire, 8 July 2002. 56. World Wildlife Fund, Conservation Strategies Unit, “Gender and Ecoregion Conservation: The Burning Questions,” Sharing Across Boundaries, March 2001; Bronwen Golder, senior research fellow, World Wildlife Fund, e-mail to author, 26 September 2002. 57. Based on author’s visit, May 2002, and on Mia MacDonald, Deborah Snelson, and Caroline Stem, “Report of the WWF—U.S. Population and Gender Project Review,” unpublished report, June 2002. 195 State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTERS 3 AND 4 58. Ibid. 59. Working groups from Ness with Golay, op. cit. note 41, pp. 40–44. 60. IUCN from Aguilar, Executive Summary, op. cit. note 28; Sundarbans project from UNDP and UNFPA, “Biodiversity Management in the Sundarbans World Heritage Site: An Integrated Two Country Approach in India and Bangladesh, 2002,” project proposal, 2002. 61. Brazil from José Goldemberg, Leapfrog Energy Technologies (San Francisco, CA: Energy Foundation, 1997), cited in UNDP, op. cit. note 15, p. 84. 62. “Turn the Tide: Nine Actions for the Planet,” at <www.newdream.org/turnthetide/>, viewed 18 September 2002; information on women’s participation from Seán Sheehan, national outreach director, Center for a New American Dream, Takoma Park, MD, discussion with author, 11 October 2002; Women’s Environmental Network, at <www.wen.org.uk>, viewed 19 September 2002. 63. Daniel Mavella, project executant, WWF Tanzania Program Office, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, discussion with author, 6 May 2002. 64. UNFPA and U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population, Environment and Poverty Eradication for Sustainable Development— Actions Toward Johannesburg 2002, Background Paper No. 14, World Summit on Sustainable Development, second preparatory session, 28 January–8 February 2002, p. 9. 65. H.R.2506, Foreign Operations, Export Financing, and Related Programs Appropriations Act, 107th Congress, 1st session, 2002, and Conference Report 107-345, Title II, Child Survival and Health Programs Fund; Lisa Moreno, senior legislative policy analyst, Population Action International, discussion with author, 23 July 2002. Chapter 4. Combating Malaria 1. Figure of 7,000 based on range of annual deaths from Joel G. Breman, “The Ears of the Hip- 196 popotamus: Manifestations, Determinants, and Estimates of the Malaria Burden,” American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene, January/February 2001(supp.), p. 1; history and Burnet quote from Andrew Nikiforuk, The Fourth Horseman: A Short History of Epidemics, Plagues, Famine and Other Scourges (New York: M. Evans & Company, Inc., 1991), p. 14, 17–18. 2. Hindi from Nikiforuk, op. sit. note 1, p. 17; Ann Hwang, “AIDS Passes 20-Year Mark,” in Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs 2002 (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2002), pp. 90–91. 3. Population at risk from World Health Organization (WHO), The World Health Report 1999 (Geneva: 1999), p. 49; Patrice Trouiller et al., “Drug Development for Neglected Diseases: A Deficient Market and a Public-Health Policy Failure,” The Lancet, 22 June 2002, pp. 2188–94. 4. WHO, WHO Expert Committee on Malaria: Twentieth Report, WHO Technical Report Series No. 892 (Geneva: 2000). 5. Figure of $3–12 billion from WHO, “Economic Costs of Malaria Are Many Times Higher than Previously Estimated,” press release (Geneva: 25 April 2000); $2.5 billion from Report of the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, Macroeconomics and Health: Investing in Health for Economic Development (Geneva: WHO, 20 December 2001), p. 161; $150 million estimate from Jeffrey D. Sachs, Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, e-mail to author, 5 March 2002; U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, “HHS Budget for HIV/AIDS Increase 8 Percent,” press release (Washington, DC: 4 February 2002). 6. Figure 4–1 adapted from John Luke Gallup and Jeffrey D. Sachs, “The Economic Burden of Malaria,” American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene, January/February 2001 (supp.), p. 86; geography from ibid.; percent from WHO, op. cit. note 3; Norman G. Gratz, Robert Steffen, and William Cocksedge, “Why Aircraft Disinsection?” Bulletin of the World Health Organization, August 2000, pp. 995–1004. State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 4 7. Figure of 90 percent from WHO, op. cit. note 4, p. 3, and from Joel G. Breman, Andréa Egan, and Gerald T. Keusch, “The Intolerable Burden of Malaria: A New Look at the Numbers,” American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene, January/February 2001 (supp.), p. iv; outpatient clinics from UNICEF Programme Division and WHO, “The Global Malaria Burden,” The Prescriber, January 2000; five strains from Donovan Webster, “Malaria Kills One Child Every 30 Seconds,” Smithsonian, September 2000, p. 40; B. Greenwood, “Malaria Mortality and Morbidity in Africa,” Bulletin of the World Health Organization, August 1999, p. 617. 8. J. Kevin Baird, “Resurgent Malaria at the Millennium,” Drugs, April 2000, pp. 721, 733–36. 9. Sean C. Murphy and Joel G. Breman, “Gaps in the Childhood Malaria Burden in Africa: Cerebral Malaria, Neurological Sequelae, Anemia, Respiratory Distress, Hypoglycemia, and Complications of Pregnancy,” American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene, January/February 2001 (supp.), pp. 57–67; Kenya from Ellen Ruppel Shell, “Resurgence of a Deadly Disease,” Atlantic Monthly, August 1997, p. 49; cerebral malaria from P. A. Holding and R. W. Snow, “Impact of Plasmodium falciparum Malaria on Performance and Learning: Review of the Evidence,” American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene, January/February 2001 (supp.), pp. 68–75. 10. Helen L. Guyatt and Robert W. Snow, “The Epidemiology and Burden of Plasmodium falciparum-related Anemia among Pregnant Women in Sub-Saharan Africa,” American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene, January/February 2001 (supp.), pp. 36–44; miscarriages, stillbirths, and low birth weight from Murphy and Breman, op. cit. note 9, p. 57; 30 percent and 60 percent from Jeffrey Sachs and Pia Malaney, “The Economic and Social Burden of Malaria,” Nature, 7 February 2002, p. 682. 11. Sachs and Malaney, op. cit. note 10, pp. 682–83; Catherine Goodman, Paul Coleman, and Anne Mills, Economic Analysis of Malaria Control in Sub-Saharan Africa (Geneva: Global Forum for Health Research, May 2000), pp. 162–63. 12. Number living in poverty from Molly O. Sheehan, “Poverty Persists,” in Worldwatch Institute, op. cit. note 2, pp. 148–49; Goodman, Coleman, and Mills, op. cit. note 11, pp. 159–73. 13. Isolating cycle from Sachs and Malaney, op. cit. note 10, p. 684; costs and development aid from WHO, op. cit. note 5. 14. Figure 4–2 from WHO, op. cit. note 3, p. 50; Thomas C. Nchinda, “Malaria: A Reemerging Disease in Africa,” Emerging Infectious Diseases, July-September 1998, pp. 398–403; Robert W. Snow, Jean-François Trape, and Kevin Marsh, “The Past, Present and Future of Childhood Malaria Mortality in Africa,” Trends in Parasitology, December 2001, pp. 593–97. 15. Official estimates from WHO, op. cit. note 3, p. 49; three times higher from Ebrahim Samba, “The Malaria Burden and Africa,” American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene, January/February 2001 (supp.), p. ii; high-fever episodes and potential doubling from Breman, op. cit. note 1, pp. 1, 7. 16. Andrew Spielman and Michael D’Antonio, Mosquito: A Natural History of Our Most Persistent and Deadly Foe (New York: Hyperion, 2001), p. 95; Jean-François Trape, “The Public Health Impact of Chloroquine Resistance in Africa,” American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene, January/February 2001 (supp.), p. 15. 17. Baird, op. cit. note 8, pp. 719, 728–30; WHO, op. cit. note 3, p. 52. 18. Replacement drugs from Nchinda, op. cit. note 14, and from WHO, op. cit. note 4, pp. 5, 31; Thailand from Eliot Marshall, “Reinventing an Ancient Cure for Malaria,” Science, 20 October 2000, p. 437. 19. Martin Enserink and Elizabeth Pennisi, “Researchers Crack Malaria Genome,” Science, 15 February 2002, p. 1207; Malcolm J. Gardner et al., “Genome Sequence of the Human Malaria Parasite Plasmodium falciparum,” Nature, 3 Octo- 197 State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 4 ber 2002, pp. 498–511; Robert A. Holt et al., “The Genome Sequence of the Malaria Mosquito Anopheles gambiae,” Science, 4 October 2002, pp. 129–49. 20. Malaria belt from Webster, op. cit. note 7, p. 36; Afghanistan and Sierra Leone from UNICEF Programme Division and WHO, op. cit. note 7; North and South Korea, Tajikistan, and urban areas from WHO, op. cit. note 4, p. 6; urban malaria also from Vincent Robert et al., “Malaria Transmission in Urban Africa,” American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene (in press). 21. David J. Rogers and Sarah E. Randolph, “The Global Spread of Malaria in a Future, Warmer World,” Science, 8 September 2000, pp. 1763–66. 22. Box 4–1 from the following: J. B. Opschoor and D. W. Pearce, “Persistent Pollutants: A Challenge for the Nineties,” in J. B. Opschoor and David Pearce, eds., Persistent Pollutants: Economics and Policy (Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1991); cod and turbot from World Wildlife Fund (WWF), Resolving the DDT Dilemma: Protecting Human Health and Biodiversity (Washington, DC: June 1998), p. 11; DDE from Matthew P. Longnecker, Walter J. Rogan, and George Lucier, “The Human Health Effects of DDT (Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane) and PCBs (Polychlorinated Biphenyls) and an Overview of Organochlorines in Public Health,” Annual Review of Public Health, vol. 18 (1997), pp. 211–44; animal effects from H. Burlington and V. F. Lindeman, “Effect of DDT on Testes and Secondary Sex Characteristics of White Leghorn Cockerels,” Proceedings of the Society for Experimental Biology and Medicine, vol. 74 (1950), pp. 48–51, and from V. Turusov, V. Rakitsky, and L. Tomatis, “Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT): Ubiquity, Persistence, and Risks,” Environmental Health Perspectives, February 2002, pp. 125–28; Committee on Hormonally Active Agents in the Environment, Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology, National Research Council, Hormonally Active Agents in the Environment (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 2000), pp. 165, 289; Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, “Toxicological Profile for DDT, DDE, DDD: Draft for Public Comment” (Atlanta, 198 GA: September 2000); W. R. Kelce et al., “Persistent DDT Metabolite p,p’-DDE Is a Potent Androgen Receptor Antagonist,” Nature, 15 June 1995, pp. 581–85; Matthew P. Longnecker et al., “Association Between Maternal Serum Concentration of the DDT Metabolite DDE and Preterm and Small-for-Gestational-Age Babies at Birth,” The Lancet, 14 July 2001, pp. 110–14; Greenpeace International, Unseen Poisons: Levels of Organochlorine Chemicals in Human Tissues (Amsterdam: June 1998); Costa Rica from Berna van Wendel de Joode et al., “Chronic Nervous-System Effects of Long-Term Occupational Exposure to DDT,” The Lancet, 31 March 2001, pp. 1014–16. 23. Institute of Medicine (IOM), Malaria: Obstacles and Opportunities (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1991), pp. 90–129; Leonard Jan Bruce-Chwatt, Essential Malariology (London: William Heinemann Medical Books, Ltd., 1980), pp. 10–30, 97–124; Andy Coghlan, “Four-Pronged Attack,” New Scientist, 20 February 1999, p. 11. 24. Figure 4–3 from U.S. Navy Bureau of Medicine and Surgery, Navy Environmental Health Center, Navy Medical Department Pocket Guide to Malaria Prevention and Control, Technical Manual (Iowa City: University of Iowa, Virtual Naval Hospital, 2000); IOM, op. cit. note 23; microliters from Martin Enserink, “Building a Disease-Fighting Mosquito,” Science, 20 October 2000, p. 440; share deposited from J. C. Beier et al., “Quantitation of Malaria Sporozoites Transmitted in vitro During Salivation by Wild Afrotropical Anopheles,” Medical and Veterinary Entomology, vol. 5 (1991), pp. 71–79; rapid dispersal period from Gary Taubes, “Malaria Parasite Outwits the Immune System,” Science, 20 October 2000, p. 435. 25. Taubes, op. cit. note 24. 26. Bruce-Chwatt, op. cit. note 23, pp. 13–29, 35–41; 20-fold from Taubes, op. cit. note 24. 27. J. C. Beier, “Malaria Parasite Development in Mosquitoes,” Annual Review of Entomology, vol. 43 (1998), pp. 519–43. 28. IOM, op. cit. note 23, p. 27; Bruce-Chwatt, State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 4 op. cit. note 23, pp. 97–114. 29. Bruce-Chwatt, op. cit. note 23, pp. 158–59; explanation and examples from Spielman and D’Antonio, op. cit. note 16, pp. 96–97. 30. Spielman and D’Antonio, op. cit. note 16, p. 97. 31. Mario Coluzzi, “The Clay Feet of the Malaria Giant and Its African Roots: Hypotheses and Inferences About Origin, Spread and Control of Plasmodium falciparum,” Parassitologia, September 1999, pp. 277–83; Robert S. Desowitz, The Malaria Capers: More Tales of Parasites and People, Research and Reality (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1991), pp. 146–47. 32. Figure of 95 percent from Malcolm Gladwell, “The Mosquito Killer,” New Yorker, 2 July 2001, p. 45; emergence of parasite from Coluzzi, op. cit. note 31. 33. Bruce-Chwatt, op. cit. note 23, pp. 58–59; Desowitz, op. cit. note 31, p. 148; Gallup and Sachs, op. cit. note 6, p. 89. 34. Bruce-Chwatt, op. cit. note 23, pp. 58–59; Desowitz, op. cit. note 31, p. 148; Gallup and Sachs, op. cit. note 6, p. 89; A. Ashley-Koch, Q. Yang, and R.S. Olney, “Sickle Hemoglobin (HbS) Allele and Sickle Cell Disease: A HuGE Review,” American Journal of Epidemiology, May 2000, pp. 839–45; K. Pattanapanyasat et al., “Impairment of Plasmodium falciparum Growth in Thalassemic Red Blood Cells: Further Evidence by Using Biotin Labeling and Flow Cytometry,” Blood, 1 May 1999, pp. 3116–19. 35. Range of bites in Africa from J. C. Beier, G. F. Killeen, and J. I. Githure, “Short Report: Entomologic Inoculation Rates and Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Prevalence in Africa,” American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene, July 1999, pp. 109–13, and from Yeya Tiémoko Touré and Mario Coluzzi, “The Challenges of Doing More Against Malaria, Particularly in Africa,” Bulletin of the World Health Organization, December 2000, p. 1376; success rate from J. Kevin Baird, Parasitic Diseases Program, U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit, Jakarta, Indonesia, e-mail to author, 18 August 2002; risk and toll from Baird, op. cit. note 8, pp. 719–43. 36. Baird, op. cit. note 8, pp. 734–37; partial immunity and course of infection from Shell, op. cit. note 9, pp. 47–49. 37. Baird, op. cit. note 8, pp. 734–37; P. D. McElroy et al., “Dose- and Time-Dependent Relations between Infective Anopheles Inoculation and Outcomes of Plasmodium falciparum Parasitemia among Children in Western Kenya,” American Journal of Epidemiology, May 1997, pp. 945–56. 38. W. F. Bynum, “Mosquitoes Bite More Than Once,” Science, 4 January 2002, pp. 47–48; Desowitz, op. cit. note 31, pp. 143–52. 39. David McCullough, The Path Between the Seas: The Creation of the Panama Canal, 1870–1914 (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1977); percentages from Spielman and D’Antonio, op. cit. note 16, p. 125. 40. Bruce-Chwatt, op. cit. note 23, p. 4; Gladwell, op. cit. note 32, pp. 42–44. 41. IOM, op. cit. note 23, pp. 41–43; Spielman and D’Antonio, op. cit. note 16, pp. 157–59. 42. IOM, op. cit. note 23, pp. 41–42; Gladwell, op. cit. note 32, pp. 47–48. 43. WWF, op. cit. note 22, p. 3; Spielman and D’Antonio, op. cit. note 16, p. 165; Bruce-Chwatt, op. cit. note 23, p. 4. 44. Gladwell, op. cit. note 32, p. 50; Spielman and D’Antonio, op. cit. note 16, pp. 157–59; Bruce-Chwatt, op. cit. note 23, pp. 280–85. 45. Spielman and D’Antonio, op. cit. note 16, pp. 148–50; IOM, op. cit. note 23, p. 42. 46. IOM, op. cit. note 23, p. 44; Desowitz, op. cit. note 31, p. 213–16. 47. Desowitz, op. cit. note 31, pp. 217–18; M. A. Farid, “The Malaria Campaign—Why Not 199 State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 4 Eradication?” World Health Forum, vol. 19 (1998), pp. 417–27. 48. Spielman and D’Antonio, op. cit. note 16, pp. 179–83. 49. Ibid. 50. David Brewster, “Is It Worth a Dam If It Worsens Malaria?” British Medical Journal, 11 September 1999, pp. 651–52. 51. J. F. Walsh, D. H. Molyneux, and M. H. Birley, “Deforestation: Effects on Vector-borne Disease,” Parasitology, vol. 106 (1993) (supp.), pp. S55–75; migrations from R. Danis-Lozano et al., “Risk Factors for Plasmodium vivax Infection in the Lacandon Forest, Southern Mexico,” Epidemiology and Infection, June 1999, pp. 461–69; Beier, Killeen, and Githure, op. cit. note 35. 52. Sri Lanka from R. Ramasamy et al., “Malaria Transmission at a New Irrigation Project in Sri Lanka: The Emergence of Anopheles annularis as a Major Vector,” American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene, November 1992, pp. 547–53, and from Spielman and D’Antonio, op. cit. note 16, p. 176; Tigray from Brewster, op. cit. note 50, pp. 651–52, and from Tedros A. Ghebreyesus et al., “Incidence of Malaria among Children Living Near Dams in Northern Ethiopia: Community Based Incidence Survey,” British Medical Journal, 11 September 1999, pp. 663–66. 53. Burton H. Singer and Marcia Caldas de Castro, “Agricultural Colonization and Malaria on the Amazon Frontier,” Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, December 2001, pp. 187, 191. 54. Ibid., p. 189. 55. Y. Ye-Ebiyo, R. J. Pollack, and A. Spielman, “Enhanced Development in Nature of Larval Anopheles arabiensis Mosquitoes Feeding on Maize Pollen,” American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene, July/August 2000, pp. 90–93; Spielman and D’Antonio, op. cit. note 16, pp. 220–21. 56. V. P. Sharma, “Re-emergence of Malaria in 200 India,” Indian Journal of Medical Research, January 1996, p. 32; Tennessee Valley Authority from Spielman and D’Antonio, op. cit. note 16, pp. 152–53. 57. Preferences from Walsh, Molyneux, and Birley, op. cit. note 51, from Spielman and D’Antonio, op. cit. note 16, p. 211, and from Donald R. Roberts and Kevin Baird, “DDT Is Still Needed for Disease Control,” Pesticide Safety News, first trimester 2002, p. 2; McWilson Warren et al., “Malaria in Urban and Peri-Urban Areas in SubSaharan Africa,” Environmental Health Project, Activity Report No. 71 (Washington, DC: U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), August 1999), and from Robert et al., op. cit. note 20. 58. Warren et al., op. cit. note 57. 59. J. N. Ijumba, F. W. Mosha, and S. W. Lindsay, “Malaria Transmission Risk Variations Derived from Different Agricultural Practices in an Irrigated Area of Northern Tanzania,” Medical and Veterinary Entomology, March 2002, pp. 28–38. 60. U. D’Alessandro and H. Buttiens, “History and Importance of Antimalarial Drug Resistance,” Tropical Medicine & International Health, November 2001, pp. 845–48; deaths, hospital admissions, and today from Trape, op. cit. note 16, pp. 12–17. 61. Cost from WHO, op. cit. note 3, p. 59; without prescription from Donald G. McNeil Jr., “New Drug for Malaria Pits U.S. Against Africa,” New York Times, 28 May 2002; complicated nature from Trape, op. cit. note 16, p. 15. 62. Ministry of Health, Mexico, “Experience in Reducing Use of DDT in Mexico,” prepared for the Intergovernmental Forum on Chemical Safety Experts Meeting on POPs, Manila, Philippines, 17–19 June 1996; 20,000 average annual cases between 1959 and 1975 (except for peak in 1968–71 of 60,000) from Lizbeth López-Carrillo et al., “Is DDT Use a Public Health Problem in Mexico?” Environmental Health Perspectives, June 1996, p. 585. State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 4 63. Ministry of Health, op. cit. note 62. December 2000). 64. López-Carrillo et al., op. cit. note 62, pp. 584–88; Ministry of Health, op. cit. note 62; Keith E. Chanon et al., “Cooperative Actions to Achieve Malaria Control Without the Use of DDT,” International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health (in press). 72. Henk Bouwman, “Malaria Control and the Paradox of DDT,” Africa: Environment and Wildlife, May 2000, p. 56. 65. Rise in annual infections from Roberts and Baird, op. cit. note 57; Fernando Bejarano González, “The Phasing Out of DDT in Mexico,” Pesticide Safety News, fourth trimester 2001; H. Gómez-Dantés and A. E. Birn, “Malaria and Social Movements in Mexico: The Last 60 Years,” Parassitologia, June 2000, pp. 69–85. 66. González, op. cit. note 65. 67. Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), Report on the Status of Malaria Programs in the Americas (Based on 2000 Data), Forty-third Directing Council, Fifty-third Session of the Regional Committee, Washington, DC, 24–28 September 2001 (Washington, DC: 19 September 2001), p. 8; Gómez-Dantés and Birn, op. cit. note 65, p. 80. 68. José Manuel Galindo Jaramillo, “Promoting Health Through Sustainable Development,” presentation at World Summit on Sustainable Development, Preparatory Commission 3, United Nations, New York, 1 April 2002; José Manuel Galindo Jaramillo, North American Commission for Environmental Cooperation, Mexico City, email to author, 31 July 2002. 69. Rich Liroff, “DDT’s Future Under the Stockholm Convention,” Pesticide Safety News, first trimester 2002, p. 3; Jaramillo, e-mail to author, op. cit. note 68. 70. Burton Singer, “We Can Do Something About Malaria Today,” HMS Beagle (BioMedNet magazine, at <bmn.com>, Elsevier Science Limited), 13 October 2000. 71. U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP), “Governments Finalize Persistent Organic Pollutants Treaty,” press release (Johannesburg: 10 73. Ibid.; South African Broadcasting Corporation, “Malaria Below Acceptable Levels,” at <www.sabcnews.com/south_africa/health>, viewed 17 August 2002; Roger Thurow, “Choice of Evils: As a Tropical Scourge Makes a Comeback, So, Too, Does DDT,” Wall Street Journal, 26 July 2001. 74. PAHO, “Situation of Malaria Programs in the Americas,” Epidemiological Bulletin, March 2001; Peter Trigg and Anatoli Kondrachine, “The Global Malaria Control Strategy,” World Health, May/June 1998, p. 4. 75. Resistance from B. Sina and K. Aultman, “Resisting Resistance,” Trends in Parasitology, July 2001, pp. 305–06, and from M. Akogbeto, H. Noukpo, and G. Ahoueya, “Overview of Factors Influencing the Emergence of Insecticide Resistance,” presentation at Multilateral Initiative on Malaria Conference, Insecticide Resistance in Malaria Vectors, Harare, Zimbabwe, 5–9 March 2001; frequency of bites from Gallup and Sachs, op. cit. note 6, p. 89. 76. WHO, op. cit. note 4, pp. 57–64; Gerry F. Killeen, Ulrike Fillinger, and Bart G.J. Knols, “Advantages of Larval Control for African Malaria Vectors: Low Mobility and Behavioural Responsiveness of Immature Mosquito Stages Allow High Effective Coverage,” Malaria Journal, 21 June 2002, pp. 1–7; Michael Macdonald, USAID Environmental Health Project, Arlington, VA, e-mail to author, 19 March 2002. 77. Geoffrey A. T. Targett and Brian M. Greenwood, “Impregnated Bednets,” World Health, May/June 1998, pp. 10–11; Martin Enserink, “Bed Nets Prove Their Mettle Against Malaria,” Science, 14 December 2001, p. 2271; Macdonald, op. cit. note 76. 78. Incidence from WHO, “Malaria Major Killer in Africa—But Bednets Can Save Lives,” press 201 State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 4 release (Geneva: 25 April 2001), and from C. Lengeler, “Insecticide-treated Bednets and Curtains for Preventing Malaria,” Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, 2000 (2):CD000363 (software update); 25 percent from U. D’Alessandro et al., “Mortality and Morbidity from Malaria in Gambian Children after Introduction of an Impregnated Bednet Programme,” The Lancet, 25 February 1995, pp. 479–83, and from Joanna R. M. Armstrong Schellenberg et al., “Effect of Large-scale Social Marketing of Insecticide-treated Nets on Child Survival in Rural Tanzania,” The Lancet, 21 April 2001, pp. 1241–47; herd effect from Enserink, op. cit. note 77. 79. Malaria Consortium et al., “Chapter 4: Challenges to Expanding Coverage and Use,” in Insecticide Treated Nets in the 21st Century: Report of the Second International Conference on Insecticide Treated Nets, held in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, 11–14 October 1999 (London: Malaria Consortium of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, 1999), p. 4–3. 80. USAID, Bureau for Africa, Office of Sustainable Development, Division of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Rural Enterprise, Programmatic Environmental Assessment for Insecticide-Treated Materials in USAID Activities in Sub-Saharan Africa (Washington, DC: January 2002). 81. Program for Appropriate Technology in Health Canada, Barriers to Trade in Mosquito Nets and Insecticides in Sub-Saharan Africa (Ottawa, ON, Canada: April 1998); Kabir Cham, List of African Countries Which Have Reduced and/or Waived Taxes and Tariffs on Nets, Netting Materials and Insecticides (Geneva: WHO, Roll Back Malaria, March 2002). 82. DDT user status from WHO, “Final DDT Agreement Endorses RBM Objectives,” RBM News, February 2001, p. 6; United Nations Treaty Collection, “List of Signatories and Parties to the Stockholm Convention (as of 4 October 2002)” at <www.pops.int/documents/signature/sign status.htm>, viewed 16 October 2002; UNEP, “Revised List of Requests for Specific Exemptions in Annex A and Annex B and Acceptable Pur- 202 poses in Annex B Received by the Secretariat Prior to the Commencement of the Conference of Plenipotentiaries on 22 May 2001” (Geneva: 14 June 2001); possible existing taxes based on Cham, op. cit. note 81. 83. Amir Attaran et al., “Balancing Risks on the Backs of the Poor,” Nature Medicine, July 2000, pp. 729–31; Todd Seavey, The DDT Ban Turns 30—Millions Dead of Malaria Because of Ban, More Deaths Likely (Washington, DC: American Council on Science and Health, June 2002). 84. Spielman and D’Antonio, op. cit. note 16, pp. 219–20. 85. J. F. Trape et al., “Combating Malaria in Africa,” Trends in Parasitology, May 2002, pp. 224–30; housing from Spielman and D’Antonio, op. cit. note 16, pp. 220–21; Malaria Consortium, Malaria and Poverty: Opportunities to Address Malaria through Debt Relief and Poverty Reduction Strategies, background paper for the Fourth RBM Global Partners Meeting, Washington, DC, 18–19 April 2001 (London: Malaria Consortium of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, April 2001). 86. Mills quoted in WHO, op. cit. note 5; $2.5 billion from Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, op. cit. note 5; 1¢ for every $100 is a Worldwatch estimate based on industrial-country gross domestic product in David Malin Roodman, “Economic Growth Falters,” in Worldwatch Institute, op. cit. note 2, p. 58. 87. S. Meek, J. Hill, and J. Webster, The Evidence Base for Interventions to Reduce Malaria Mortality in Low and Middle-Income Countries, Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, Working Paper Series No. WG5:6 (London: Malaria Consortium of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, September 2001), p. 26. 88. David McGuire, NetMark Africa (USAID and the Academy for Educational Development), Washington, DC, discussion with author, 12 December 2001. 89. Cost-effectiveness from D. B. Evans, G. State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 4 Azene, and J. Kirigia, “Should Governments Subsidize the Use of Insecticide-impregnated Mosquito Nets in Africa? Implications of a Cost-effectiveness Analysis,” Health Policy and Planning, June 1997, pp. 107–14; China and Viet Nam from WHO, op. cit. note 3, p. 55, and from Tran Duc Hinh, “Use of Insecticide-Impregnated Bed Nets for Malaria Control in Vietnam,” Mekong Malaria Forum (Regional Malaria Control Programme in Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam), April 2000; Zambia from McGuire, op. cit. note 88, and from Michael Macdonald, USAID Environmental Health Project, Arlington, VA, email to author, 14 February 2002. 90. Malariologists eradicated from Farid, op. cit. note 47, p. 426; A. J. McMichael and R. Beaglehole, “The Changing Global Context of Public Health,” The Lancet, 5 August 2000, pp. 495–99; M. F. Myers et al., “Forecasting Disease Risk for Increased Epidemic Preparedness in Public Health,” Advances in Parasitology, vol. 47 (2000), pp. 309–30. 91. Difficulties of predictions from P. Carnevale et al., “Diversity of Malaria in Rice Growing Areas of the Afrotropical Region,” Parassitologia, September 1999, pp. 273–76; high altitudes from Brewster, op. cit. note 50; benefits of draining rice paddies from Gladwell, op. cit. note 32, p. 51. 92. A. Seyoum et al., “Traditional Use of Mosquito-Repellent Plants in Western Kenya and Their Evaluation in Semi-field Experimental Huts Against Anopheles gambiae: Ethnobotanical Studies and Application by Thermal Expulsion and Direct Burning,” Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene, May/June 2002, pp. 225–31; G. P. Bhat and N. Surolia, “In vitro Antimalarial Activity of Extracts of Three Plants Used in the Traditional Medicine of India,” American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene, October 2001, pp. 304–08; S. J. Moore, A. Lenglet, and N. Hill, “Field Evaluation of Three Plant-Based Insect Repellents Against Malaria Vectors in Vaca Diez Province, the Bolivian Amazon,” Journal of the American Mosquito Control Association, June 2002, pp. 107–10. 93. S. Abdulla et al., “Impact on Malaria Mor- bidity of a Programme Supplying Insecticide Treated Nets in Children Aged Under 2 Years in Tanzania: Community Cross Sectional Study,” British Medical Journal, 3 February 2001, pp. 270–73; child survival from Schellenberg et al., op. cit. note 78. 94. G. Kidane and R. H. Morrow, “Teaching Mothers to Provide Home Treatment of Malaria in Tigray, Ethiopia: A Randomised Trial,” The Lancet, 12 August 2000, pp. 550–55; “Ethiopia Mothers Spread Home Treatment Message,” RBM News, December 2000, p. 3. 95. East African Network for Monitoring Antimalarial Treatment, “Monitoring Antimalarial Drug Resistance within National Malaria Control Programmes: The EANMAT Experience,” Tropical Medicine & International Health, November 2001, pp. 891–98. 96. Integrated Management of Childhood Illness from WHO, op. cit. note 3, pp. 57–58; artemisinins from Robert G. Ridley, “Medical Need, Scientific Opportunity and the Drive for Antimalarial Drugs,” Nature, 7 February 2002, pp. 686–93; suppositories from WHO, Communicable Diseases 2000: Highlights of Activities in 1999 and Major Challenges for the Future (Geneva: January 2000), p. 82, and from Julie McLaughlin, Africa Region, World Bank, Washington, DC, email to author, 25 September 2002. 97. David Schellenberg et al., “Intermittent Treatment for Malaria and Anaemia Control at Time of Routine Vaccinations in Tanzanian Infants: A Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Trial,” The Lancet, 12 May 2001, pp. 1471–77; Catherine A. Goodman, Paul C. Coleman, and Anne J. Mills, “The Cost-Effectiveness of Antenatal Malaria Prevention in Sub-Saharan Africa,” American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene, January/February 2001 (supp.), pp. 45–56; Helen L. Guyatt et al., “Free Bednets to Pregnant Women through Antenatal Clinics in Kenya: A Cheap, Simple and Equitable Approach to Delivery,” Tropical Medicine & International Health, May 2002, pp. 409–20. 98. Joanne McManus, “Finding a Cure,” Far 203 State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTERS 4 AND 5 Eastern Economic Review, 23 November 2000, p. 43. 99. Ibid.; frontier areas and emergencies from WHO, op. cit. note 4, pp. 18–26, 60; E. K. Ansah et al., “Improving Adherence to Malaria Treatment for Children: The Use of Pre-Packed Chloroquine Tablets vs. Chloroquine Syrup,” Tropical Medicine & International Health, vol. 6, no. 7 (2001), pp. 496–504. 100. Comparison of malaria and AIDS from Dr. Stephen Hoffman, Celera Genomics, Rockville, MD, discussion with author, 19 July 2002; Novartis from Novartis International AG, Novartis Annual Report 2001 (Basel: 2002), from “Poor Countries Get Deal on Malaria Drug,” USA Today, 24 May 2001, and from Gautam Naik, “New Malaria Strain Hits Africa,” Asian Wall Street Journal, 30 July 2001. 101. Gro Harlem Brundtland from Moisés Naím, “The Global War for Public Health,” Foreign Policy, January/February 2002, pp. 24–36; Eliot Marshall, “A Renewed Assault on an Old and Deadly Foe,” Science, 20 October 2000, pp. 428–30. Table 4–3 from the following: WHO, op. cit. note 3, pp. 59–62; Global Fund from “Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria: Over view,” at <www.globalfundatm.org/ overview.html>, viewed 27 September 2002, with confirmed funds from “Q&A on the Progress of the Global Fund, July 2002,” at <www.global fundatm.org/faq_finaltopublic.html#3>, viewed 4 October 2002, and approved projects from “Proposals/Components Approved for Funding with No or Minor Adjustments,” at <www.glob alfundatm.org/files/Proposalslist_40.doc> viewed 4 October 2002; Roll Back Malaria (RBM) from Barbara Crossette, “U.N. and World Bank Unite To Wage War on Malaria,” New York Times, 31 October 1998, with $24 million from Gunther Baugh, Resource Mobilization and Administration, RBM Secretariat, e-mail to Suprotik Basu, Malaria Team, World Bank, 11 October 2002; Medicines for Malaria Venture (MMV) from Jocelyn Kaiser, “Raising the Stakes in the Race for New Malaria Drugs,” Science, 25 September 1998, p. 1930, with current MMV budget, quote, and projects from Declan Butler, “What Difference Does a 204 Genome Make?” Nature, 3 October 2002, pp. 426–28, and from Geoffrey Cowley, “Bill’s Biggest Bet Yet,” Newsweek, 4 February 2002, pp. 44–52; Multilateral Initiative on Malaria in Africa funding from “Anteing Up for a World War on Malaria,” Science, 29 August 1997, p. 1207, from Médicins Sans Frontières, Access to Essential Medicines Campaign and the Drugs for Neglected Diseases Working Group, Fatal Imbalance: The Crisis in Research and Development for Drugs for Neglected Diseases (Geneva: September 2001), and current budget from Andréa Egan, Multilateral Initiative on Malaria, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, e-mail to author, 1 October 2002. 102. Webster, op. cit. note 7; Gro Harlem Brundtland, “Health: A Pathway to Sustainable Development,” Journal of the American Medical Association, 10 July 2002, p. 156. Chapter 5. Charting a New Energy Future 1. Thailand from Grainne Ryder, “Coal-fired Power Is Obsolete,” The Nation, 12 May 1999, and from Greenpeace, “Blessings Rain Down for a Solar Future,” press release (Prachuap Khiri Kan Province, Thailand: 2 May 2002); U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EREN), “California Mandates 20 Percent Renewable Power by 2017,” at <www.eren.doe.gov/news/news_detail.cfm ?news_id=325>, viewed 25 September 2002. 2. International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook, 2001 Insights: Assessing Today’s Supplies to Fuel Tomorrow’s Growth (Paris: IEA, 2001), pp. 26–27; DOE, Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Outlook 2002 (Washington, DC: 2002), pp. 1, 4; 2 billion from José Goldemberg, “Rural Energy in Developing Countries,” in U.N. Development Programme (UNDP), U.N. Department of Social and Economic Affairs (UN-DESA), and World Energy Council (WEC), World Energy Assessment: Energy and the Challenge of Sustainability (New York: UNDP, 2000), p. 348. 3. Eric Martinot, “The GEF Portfolio of GridConnected Renewable Energy: Emerging Expe- State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 5 rience and Lessons,” cited in Group of Eight (G8) Renewable Energy Task Force, G8 Renewable Energy Task Force Final Report (July 2001), pp. 27–28; 300 million from Eric Martinot, Climate Change Program, Global Environment Facility, discussion with author, 4 October 2002. 4. IEA, The Evolving Renewable Energy Market (Paris: 1999), p. v. 5. Christopher Flavin, discussion with author, 11 October 2002. 6. Annual investments in energy infrastructure from UNDP, UN-DESA, and WEC, op. cit. note 2, and from Eric Martinot, Climate Change Program, Global Environment Facility, e-mail to author, 9 October 2002. 7. Figures 5–1 and 5–2 are calculated by Worldwatch with data from IEA, World Energy Outlook 2002 (Paris: 2002), pp. 410–11. 8. Shimp quoted in “Feature—Solar Power to Challenge Dominance of Fossil Fuels,” Reuters, 9 August 2002. 9. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 2001), pp. 223–24; Box 5–1 based on ibid., pp. 10, 12–13, 17, with countries that have signed or ratified the Kyoto Protocol, ratification dates, and share of emissions available at <unfccc.int/ resource/kpstats.pdf>. 10. Wu Zongxin et al., “Future Implications of China’s Energy-Technology Choices,” prepared for the Working Group on Energy Strategies and Technologies, China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development, 24 July 2001, p. 5; World Bank, Clear Water, Blue Skies: China’s Environment in the New Century, China 2020 Series (Washington, DC: 1997); European Union (EU) from European Commission, “New Research Reveals the Real Costs of Electricity in Europe,” press release (Brussels: 20 July 2001); losses due to natural disasters from U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP), “Financial Sector, Governments and Business Must Act on Climate Change or Face the Consequences,” press release (Nairobi: 8 October 2002). Table 5–1 based on the following: low coal figure is for the United States, and the high figure is European average; generating costs for coal and wind from “On Track as the Cheapest in Town,” Windpower Monthly, January 2002, p. 30; low natural gas cost (for Europe) from David Milborrow, e-mail to author, 18 September 2002; high natural gas cost (U.S.) from DOE, EREN, “Economics of BioPower,” at <www.eren.doe.gov/biopower/ basics/ba_econ.htm>, viewed 15 July 2002; nuclear is 1993 levelized costs in California, from California Energy Commission, 1996 Energy Technology Status Report: Report Summary (Sacramento, CA: 1997), p. 73; direct-fired biomass low figure as of 1999 in the United States from Dallas Burtraw, Resources for the Future, “Testimony Before the Senate Energy and Water Development Appropriations Subcommittee, 14 September 1999; high figure for direct-fired biomass from U.S. DOE, EREN, “Biomass at a Glance,” at <www.eren.doe.gov/biopower/ basics/index.htm>, viewed 15 July 2002; hydropower low figure calculated by DOE based on 21 projects completed in 1993; high hydropower figure calculated using 30-year lifetime and real cost of capital from DOE, EIA, Energy Consumption and Renewable Energy Development Potential on Indian Lands (Washington, DC: April 2000); photovoltaics (PVs) (unsubsidized in favorable climates) from Paul Maycock, e-mail to author, 18 October 2002; external costs from EU EXTERNE Project and from European Commission, op. cit. this note. 11. Africa from Hermann Scheer, Member of German Parliament, cited in Alenka Burja, “Energy Is a Driving Force for Our Civilisation: Solar Advocate,” 2002, at <www.foldecenter.dk/ articles/Hscheer_aburja.htm>, viewed 8 October 2002; Brazil from J.R. Moreira and J. Goldemberg, “The Alcohol Program,” Energy Policy, vol. 27, no. 4 (1999), pp. 229–45. 12. Quote and details on Kintyre from “Wind Energy Turns Kintyre Economy Around,” Environment News Service, 8 July 2002. 13. Renewable energy jobs from Virinder Singh 205 State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 5 with BBC Research and Consulting and Jeffrey Fehrs, The Work that Goes into Renewable Energy, Research Report no. 13 (Washington, DC: Renewable Energy Policy Project, November 2001); John Whitman, “Unemployment in Spain Plummets to 21 Year Lows,” The Spain-U.S. Chamber of Commerce, at <www.spainuscc.org/eng/ publications/LinkFall2000/paro21.html>, viewed 6 August 2002; Wilson Rickerson, Germany and the European Wind Energy Market (Berlin: Bundesverband WindEnergie (BWE, German Wind Energy Association), 2002); Jochen Twele, Windenergie—Technik & Repowering (Berlin: BWE, 2002). 14. California Public Interest Research Group, “Developing Renewable Energy Could Mean More Jobs,” KTVU News, 25 June 2002, at <www.bayinsider.com/partners/ktvu/news/2002/ 06/25_solar.html>, viewed 16 July 2002; Steve Rizer, “Davis Supports Plan to Double State’s Level of Renewable-Based Electricity,” Solar & Renewable Energy Outlook, 1 April 2002, p. 73. 15. M. Kannappan, speech at 2002 Global Windpower Conference in Paris, cited in European Wind Energy Association (EWEA), “Think Paris, Act Global,” Wind Directions, May 2002, p. 11. 16. Inner Mongolia from Eric Martinot et al., “Renewable Energy Markets in Developing Countries,” in Annual Review of Energy and the Environment 2002 (Palo Alto, CA: Annual Reviews, in press), p. 14 (draft); per capita annual net income in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from Debra Lew, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, e-mail to author, 4 October 2002. 17. India from Indian Ministry of Non-Conventional Energy Sources (MNES), Annual Report 1999-2000, at <mnes.nic.in/frame.htm?publica tions.htm>, viewed 29 July 2002; China from Debra Lew, “Alternatives to Coal and Candles: Wind Power in China,” Energy Policy, vol. 28 (2000), pp. 271–86; ethanol in Brazil and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from Monica Saraiva Panik, “Greenhouse Gases are Global,” Sustainable Development International, Edition 4, p. 112, at <www.sustdev.org/journals/edition.04/ download/ed4.pdfs/sdi4_111.pdf>, viewed 27 206 July 2002, and from CO2e.com, “Environment: Brazil to Take Renewable Energy Plan to Johannesburg,” Inter Press Service, 17 May 2002; Brazil exports from Suani T. Coelho, Executive Assistant for the Secretary of State for the Environment, São Paulo, Brazil, discussion with author, 25 July 2002; PV suppliers and service providers in Kenya from James & James World Renewable Energy Suppliers and Ser vices, at <www.jxj.com/ suppands/renerg/select_company/567_61.html>, viewed 7 September 2002; local Kenyan firms from John Perlin, “Electrifying the Unelectrified,” Solar Today, November-December 1999. 18. G8 Renewable Energy Task Force, op. cit. note 3, pp. 5, 9. 19. Clean energy markets in 2001 from Eric Martinot, Climate Change Program, Global Environment Facility, e-mail to author, 19 September 2002; projection from Al Massey, “Staying Clean and Green in a Developing World,” Ethical Corporation Magazine, 7 February 2002; speed of progress from IPCC, Working Group 3, Climate Change 2001: Mitigation, Summary for Policy Makers, p. 5, at <www.ipcc.ch/pub/wg3spm.pdf>, viewed 10 August 2002. 20. Wind as cheapest option from Daniel M. Kammen, “Testimony for the Hearing on the Role of Tax Incentives in Energy Policy,” Committee on Finance, U.S. Senate, Washington, DC, 11 July 2001; technology trends from D. I. Page and M. Legerton, “Wind Energy Implementation During 1996,” Renewable Energy Newsletter, CADDET, September 1997, at <www.cad det-re.org/html/397art6.htm>, viewed 22 September 1998, and from IEA, “Long-term Research and Development Needs for Wind Energy for the Time Frame 2000 to 2020,” October 2001, at <www.afm.dtu.dk/wind/iea>, viewed 7 October 2002; average size installed worldwide in 2001 from BTM Consult, International Wind Energy Development: World Market Update 2001, cited in Paul Gipe, “Soaring to New Heights: The World Wind Energy Market,” Renewable Energy World, July-August 2002, p. 34; turbines for offshore from Peter Fairley, “Wind Power for Pennies,” Technology Review, July/August 2002, p. 43; small-scale turbines from “Building Integrated State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 5 Wind Turbines,” RENEW: Technology for a Sustainable Future, July/August 2002, p. 27. Box 5–2 based on the following: DOE lightweight turbine and Vestas offshore equipment from Fairley, op. cit. this note, pp. 42, 43; German turbine from Eize de Vries, “Where to Next? Developments and Trends in Wind Turbines,” Renewable Energy World, July-August 2002, p. 70; climatic models from Birger Madsen, BTM Consult, e-mail to author, 14 September 2002. 21. Cost in early 1980s calculated by Worldwatch Institute based on Paul Gipe, “Overview of Worldwide Wind Generation,” 4 May 1999, at <rotor.fb12.tu-berlin.de/overview.html>, viewed 3 March 2000; current wind costs from “On Track as the Cheapest in Town,” Windpower Monthly, January 2002, p. 30; 20 percent decline over five years from EWEA and Greenpeace, Wind Force 12, May 2002, p. 12, at <www.ewea.org/doc/Wind Force12.pdf>, viewed 17 July 2002; Vestas from “Renewables: Expansion Plan Progress,” Energy Economist, April 2002, p. 36. 22. Capacity and generation from BTM Consult, “International Wind Energy Development: World Market Update 2001—Record Growth!” press release (Ringkøbing, Denmark: 8 April 2002); Figure 5–3 from BTM Consult, EWEA, American Wind Energy Association (AWEA), Windpower Monthly, and New Energy; estimated number of households from EWEA and Greenpeace, op. cit. note 21, p. 5; 70 percent and 45 countries from “Operating Wind Power Capacity,” Windpower Monthly, July 2002, p. 66; 2001 wind sales totaled $6–6.5 billion, with $6 billion from Søren Krohn, “Danish Wind Turbines: An Industrial Success Story,” at <www.wind power.dk/arti cles/success.htm>, viewed 14 October 2002, and $6.5 billion from Peter Asmus, “Another Enron Casualty: Wind Power?” Environmental News Network, 29 January 2002; sales in 1999 from Christopher Flavin, “Wind Power Booms,” in Lester R. Brown et al., Vital Signs 2000 (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2000), p. 56; number employed worldwide is Worldwatch estimate, based on Andreas Wagner, GE Wind Energy and EWEA, e-mail to author, 18 September 2002, and on EWEA, Forum for Energy and Development, and Greenpeace, Wind Force 10 (London: 1999). 23. British Wind Energy Association, “Europe’s Seas: An Abundant Source of Clean Power,” 6 December 2001, at <www.bwea.com/view/news/ arc/eweaowec.html>, viewed 19 July 2002; EWEA and Greenpeace, op. cit. note 21, p. 5. 24. Onshore resources, estimated at 53,000 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) (53,000 terawatt-hours) of electricity annually, from Michael Grubb and Niels Meyer, “Wind Energy: Resources, Systems and Regional Strategies,” in Laurie Burnham, ed., Renewable Energy Sources for Fuels and Electricity (Washington, DC: Island Press, 1993), pp. 186–87, 198; global net electricity consumption in 1999 at 12,833 billion kWh, according to EIA, “International Energy Outlook 2002,” at <www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/tbl_20.html>, viewed 12 July 2002. 25. Bird deaths from Paul Gipe, Wind Power Comes of Age (New York: John Wiley & Sons, May 1995), from National Wind Coordinating Committee, “Avian Collisions with Wind Turbines: A Summary of Existing Studies and Comparisons to Other Sources of Avian Collision Mortality in the United States,” August 2001, at <www.nationalwind.org/pubs/avian_collisions.pdf>, viewed 3 September 2002, and from Danish Energy Agency, Wind Power in Denmark: Technology, Policies and Results 1999 (Copenhagen: Ministry of Environment and Energy, September 1999), p. 21; mitigation from AWEA, “Proposed Repowering May Cut Avian Deaths in Altamont,” Wind Energy Weekly, 28 September 1998. 26. Figure of 20 percent from R. Watson, M. C. Zinyowera, and R. H. Moss, eds., Climate Change 1995—Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific Technical Analyses, Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the IPCC (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1996), and from Michael Grubb, “Valuing Wind Energy on a Utility Grid,” Parts 1–3, Wind Energy Weekly, vol. 27, no. 350–53; need for only minor changes from David Milborrow, Survey of Energy Resources: Wind Energy (London: WEC, 2001), at <www.world energy.org/wec-geis/publications/reports/ser/ 207 State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 5 wind/wind.asp>, viewed 3 September 2002. 27. For information regarding wind prediction and forecasting tools and modeling, see <www.iset.uni-kassel.de>. 28. DOE, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), “The Photovoltaics Promise,” NREL Report No. FS-210-24588, at <www.nrel.gov/ncpv/pdfs/24588.pdf>, viewed 19 July 2002. 29. Sun’s energy from Richard Corkish, “A Power That’s Clean and Bright,” Nature, 18 April 2002, p. 680; increase of PV cell and module shipments since 1996 from European Photovoltaics Industry Association (EPVA) and Greenpeace, Solar Generation, October 2001, p. 3, at <archive.greenpeace.org/~climate/climatecount down/solargeneration/solargen_full_report.pdf>, viewed 26 July 2002; doubling from Jon R. Luoma, “Beyond the Fringe,” Mother Jones, July/August 2002, p. 42; $2 billion PV industry from U.S. National Center for Photovoltaics, cited in Ricardo Bayon, “Unenlightened? The U.S. Solar Industry May Be Eclipsed,” The American Prospect, 15 January 2002, and from PV industry data from EPVA, 2001; job estimate based on Singh, BBC, and Fehrs, op. cit. note 13, pp. 11–12, on “Job Opportunities in Photovoltaic and Renewable Energy Engineering,” at <www.pv.unsw.edu.au/bepv/jobopps.htm>, viewed 9 October 2002, and on 3,800 jobs for every $100 million in solar cell sales, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association; number of households from Martinot et al, op. cit. note 16, p. 3 (draft); Figure 5–4 from Paul Maycock, PV News, various issues. 30. Growth rates projected by Sharp, cited in “Solar Cell Production Continues to Grow in Japan,” Renewable Energy World, July-August 2002, p. 18. 31. Drop in costs per doubling from EPVA and Greenpeace, op. cit. note 29, p. 14; 5 percent annual cost decline from Bernie FischlowitzRoberts, “Sales of Solar Cells Take Off,” EcoEconomy Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 11 June 2002); building facades from 208 Steven Strong, “Solar Electric Buildings: PV as a Distributed Resource,” Renewable Energy World, July-August 2002, p. 171; generating costs from EPVA and Greenpeace, op. cit. note 29, p. 14. Box 5–3 based on the following: Australian company (Sustainable Technologies International) from “Feature—Solar Power to Challenge Dominance of Fossil Fuels,” Reuters, 9 August 2002; NREL cell from “High Yield Solar Cell,” RENEW: Technology for a Sustainable Future, May/June 2002, p. 27; maximum recorded efficiency (single crystalline cells) and costs from IEA, Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (PVPS), 2000, cited in EPVA and Greenpeace, op. cit. note 29, pp. 8, 15; spheral solar technology, being developed by Automation Tooling Systems of Ontario, Canada, from Rajiv Sekhri, “Canadian Firm Says Set to Slash Solar Power Costs,” Reuters, at <www.planet ark.org/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/16934/story .htm>, viewed 18 July 2002. 32. DOE, NREL, “Energy Payback: Clean Energy from PV,” at <www.nrel.gov/ncpv/ pdfs/245 96.pdf>, viewed 19 July 2002; expected lifetime from BP Solar, at <www.bpsolar.com/ ContentDetails.cfm?page=125>, viewed 18 September 2002; PV manufacture risks from Larry Kazmerski, “Photovoltaics—Exploding the Myths,” Renewable Energy World, July-August 2002, p. 176, and from U.K. Department of Trade and Industry, at <www.dti.gov.uk/renew able/photo voltaics.html>, viewed 3 September 2002. 33. Share provided by nuclear power in 1988 estimated from graph by the Uranium Information Centre, Ltd., “Nuclear Power in the World Today,” July 2002, at <www.uic.com.au/nip07.htm>, viewed 24 September 2002; additional nuclear capacity in 2001 according to International Atomic Energy Agency, Power Reactor Information System, cited in “Another Record Year for European Wind Power,” Renewable Energy World On-Line, March-April 2002, at <www.jxj.com/magsandj/ rew/news/2002_02_03.html>, viewed 14 August 2002; wind and solar growth and share of current capacity calculated using average annual global growth rates of wind and solar PV between 1992 and 2001, year-end 2001 cumulative installed capacity, and total global installed electric capac- State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 5 ity figure of 3,400 gigawatts; feasible growth in wind capacity from EWEA and Greenpeace, op. cit. note 21, p. 6; PV projection from EPVA and Greenpeace, op. cit. note 29, p. 5. 34. Quote and North Rhine–Westphalia from Jochen Twele, BWE, e-mail to author, 29 August 2002. 35. Andreas Wagner, GE and EWEA, discussion with author, 10 September 2002. 36. Ibid. 37. Ibid. 38. Opposition to EFL from Jochen Twele, BWE, discussion with author, 14 April 1999, and from Kevin Rackstraw, “Wind Around the World,” Sustainable Business.com and Global Environment and Technology Foundation, December 1998, at <www.sustainablebusiness.com/insider/ dec98/3-wind.cfm>, viewed 28 January 2000; pro-wind rally from BWE, “5,000 Supporters of Wind and Renewable Energies Out on the Street,” press release (Berlin: September 1997). 39. Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit (BMU, Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety), Act on Granting Priority to Renewable Energy Sources (Bonn: April 2000). (Federal Ministry of Economics), e-mail to author, 30 March 2001; training programs and publications from BMU, Environmental Policy: The Federal Government’s Decision of 29 September 1994 on Reducing Emissions of CO2, and Emissions of Other Greenhouse Gases, in the Federal Republic of Germany (Bonn: November 1994), p. 32. 45. Andreas Wagner, GE and EWEA, e-mails to author, 10 September and 18 September 2002. 46. German capacity at beginning of 1991 and 2001 from BWE, “Installationszahlen in Deutschland, 1988–Ende 2000,” at <www.wind-ener gie.de/statistik/deutschland.html>, viewed 14 March 2001; 11,750 megawatts (MW) and 3.75 percent from “German Wind Generation to Rise 25 pct in 2002—Firms,” Reuters, 5 September 2002; 12,000 MW and number employed from Wagner, op. cit. note 35; 26 percent of SchleswigHolstein’s electricity is generated with the wind, according to DEWI, “Wind Energy Use in Germany—Status 30.06.02,” DEWI Magazin, August 2002; as of early 2002, 90 percent of turbines are owned by individuals or cooperatives and more than 200,000 Germans are involved in cooperatives, according to BTM Consult, World Market Update 2001—Forecast 2002–2006 (Ringkøbing, Denmark: 2002). 43. Wagner, op. cit. note 35; Gerdes, op. cit. note 40. 47. Growth rate calculated with data from IEA, PVPS, Statistics by Country, 2000, at <www.oja-ser vices.nl/iea-pvps/stats/home.htm>, viewed 18 September 2002, and with 2001 data from Peter Sprau and Ingrid Weiss, National Survey Report of PV Power Applications in Germany 2001, prepared for the German Federal Ministry of Economics and the Research Centre Jülich (as part of the IEA Cooperative Programme on Photovolatic Power Systems), WIP-Renewable Energies Division, Munich, Germany, June 2002, at <www.wip-mun ich.de/homepage/projects/pdf/Executive_Ger man_Summary_2001.pdf>, viewed 24 September 2002; projected year-end 2003 capacity from EPVA and Greenpeace, op. cit. note 29, p. 18. 44. State programs from DEWI, Wind Energy Information Brochure (Wilhelmshaven, Germany: 1998), pp. 30, 35; federal resource studies from Roland Mayer, Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft 48. Figure of 37 percent from Patrick Mazza, “Europe, Japan Seize Clean Energy Lead,” press release (San Francisco: Earth Island Institute, Climate Solutions, 15 April 2000); 1,400 full-time 40. Gerhard Gerdes, Deutches Windenergie Institut (DEWI, Germany Wind Energy Institute), discussion with author, 7 December 2000. 41. Wagner, op. cit. note 35. 42. Jochen Twele, BWE, discussion with author, 5 December 2000; Gerdes, op. cit. note 40; investment amount from Wagner, op. cit. note 22. 209 State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 5 jobs in 1995 and 39 percent price reductions from Ingrid Weiss and Peter Sprau, “100,000 Roofs and 99 Pfennig—Germany’s PV Financing Schemes and the Market,” Renewable Energy World, January-February 2002; 2002 employment figure from Sprau and Weiss, op. cit. note 47, p. 5; expected expansion from Reiner Gärtner, “Fatherland and Sun,” Red Herring, 22 July 2002. 49. CO2 reductions from “German Wind Generation to Rise 25 pct in 2002—Firms,” Reuters, 5 September 2002; revenue and generation increases from “German Renewable Revenues Rose 35 Pct in 2001,” Reuters, 16 July 2002; wind targets announced by German Environment Minister Jürgen Trittin and cited in EWEA, Another Record Year for European Wind Power (Brussels: 20 February 2002). 50. Year-end 1993 capacity (52 MW) from Instituto para la Diversificación y Ahorro Energético, Spain; Legislation Development of the Spanish Electric Power Act, Vol. 2, Royal Decree 2818/1998; “Renewable Energy: World Renewable Energy Outlook—Western Europe,” at <envi ronment.about.com/library/weekly/blrenew 21.htm>, viewed 20 June 2002; wind’s share of power generation from Michael McGovern, “Wind Weakening System Security,” Windpower Monthly, July 2002, p. 27; manufacturer ranking from EWEA, “Company Profile: Gamesa Eolica and Energia,” Wind Directions, January 2002, p. 12. 51. AWEA, “Texas Wind Energy Development,” 19 June 2002, at <www.awea.org/projects/ texas.html>, viewed 24 July 2002; number of states with Renewables Portfolio Standard laws from DOE, EREN, “California Mandates 20 Percent Renewable Power by 2017,” at <www.eren.doe.gov/news/news_detail.cfm?news_ id=325>, viewed 25 September 2002. Box 5–4 from the following: Carter’s goal from U.S. Government, Interagency Domestic Policy Review Committee, Domestic Policy Review of Solar Energy—Final Report: Research, Design and Development Panel (Washington, DC: October 1978); U.S. wind-generated electricity in 2000 from Paul Gipe, discussion with author, 23 March 2001; wind’s share of early 2003 Danish electricity generation from Madsen, op. cit. note 20. 210 52. Problems with U.K. law from British Wind Energy Association, “Promoting Wind Energy in and Around the UK—The Government’s Policy for Renewables, NFFO and the Fossil Fuel Levy,” at <www.bwea.com/ref/nffo.html>, viewed 3 September 2002; problems for small firms and cooperatives from Rickerson, op. cit. note 13, p. 4; 1999 statistics from WEC, Survey of Energy Resources: Wind Energy (London: 2001). 53. PV4You National Consumer Project, “36 States with Net Metering,” Interstate Renewable Energy Council, at <www.spratley.com/ncp/ board2/?i=882>, viewed 18 September 2002. 54. Share of wind capacity additions calculated by Worldwatch and including only the years when the feed-in laws were in force, based on BTM Consult, World Market Update, various years, on Danish power company statistics cited in Danish Wind Turbine Manufacturers Association, “Installed Wind Power Capacity in Denmark in MW,” at <www.windpower.dk/stat/tab12.htm>, viewed 28 January 2000, on Lester R. Brown, “World Wind Generating Capacity Jumps 31 Percent in 2001,” Eco-Economy Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 8 January 2002), on BWE, op. cit. note 46, and on Instituto para la Diversificación y Ahorro Energético (IDAE), Spain; 80 percent from “Danish Wind Stalled,” RENEW: Technology for a Sustainable Future, May/June 2002, p. 12; Figure 5–5 from Paul Gipe, discussions with author and faxes, 1 October 1998 and 23 March 2001, from AWEA, “U.S. Wind Industry Ends Most Productive Year, More Than Doubling Previous Record for New Installations,” press release (Washington: 15 January 2002), from BWE, op. cit. note 46, from Wagner, op. cit. note 35, from IDAE, Spain, and from IDAE, EHN, and APPA data supplied by José Santamarta, e-mail to author, 19 October 2002. 55. Box 5–5 from Hermann Scheer, Member of German Parliament and General Chairman of the World Council for Renewable Energy, Address to the American Council for Renewable Energy, Washington, DC, 11 July 2002. 56. Janet L. Sawin, “The Role of Government in the Development and Diffusion of Renewable State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 5 Energy Technologies: Wind Power in the United States, California, Denmark and Germany, 1970–2000” (dissertation, The Fletcher School, Tufts University), September 2001 (Ann Arbor, MI: UMI, 2001), pp. 204–05; inexperienced investors in wind power from Randall Tinkerman, former wind entrepreneur, discussion with author, 12 May 1999; rate of investment recovery and lack of generation from Alan J. Cox et al., “Wind Power in California: A Case Study of Targeted Tax Subsidies,” in Richard J. Gilbert, ed., Regulatory Choices: A Perspective on Developments in Energy Policy (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1991), p. 349, and from Vincent Schwent, California Energy Commission, discussion with author, 6 May 1999; use of untested designs from Alfred J. Cavallo, Susan M. Hock, and Don. R. Smith, “Wind Energy: Technology and Economics,” in Burnham, op. cit. note 24, p. 150. 57. MNES, op. cit. note 17; mid-2002 capacity from “Operating Wind Power Capacity,” Windpower Monthly, July 2002, p. 66; lower capacity factors and some nonfunctioning turbines from Martinot et al, op. cit. note 16, pp. 11, 20 (draft). 58. Mazza, op. cit. note 48; growth rate calculated by Worldwatch with data from IEA, PVPS, op. cit. note 47, with 2001 capacity additions from Fischlowitz-Roberts, op. cit. note 31; system cost reductions from EPVA and Greenpeace, op. cit. note 29, p. 23; Figure 5–6 from IEA, PVPS, cited at <www.bp.com/centres/energy2002/page downloads/solar.pdf>, viewed 24 September 2002, and from Fischlowitz-Roberts, op. cit. note 31; production increases by Kyocera and Sharp from Curtis Moore and Jack Ihle, Renewable Energy Policy Outside the United States, Issue Brief 14 (Washington, DC: Renewable Energy Policy Project, October 1999), and from Fischlowitz-Roberts, op. cit. note 31. 59. Benefits to those with higher income from Sawin, op. cit. note 56, p. 151; impact of California incentive from Rizer, op. cit. note 14. 62. China and number of turbines in Inner Mongolia from Martinot et al, op. cit. note 16, pp. 8, 22 (draft); number of people from L. Wu, “Inner Mongolia: One of the Pioneers of Chinese Wind Power Development,” in Proceedings of the Beijing International Conference on Wind Energy (Beijing: Organizing Committee of the Beijing International Conference on Wind Energy, 1995), cited in Goldemberg, op. cit. note 2, p. 377; Indian loans from MNES, op. cit. note 17, p. 53; funding in India from “Why Renewables Cannot Penetrate the Market,” Down to Earth, 30 April 2002, p. 35. 63. Tax credit in Arkansas from Robert Righter, Wind Energy in America: A History (Norman: University of Oklahoma Press, 1996), p. 205; wind’s potential share of Arkansas’ electricity calculated by Worldwatch with consumption data from EIA, at <www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/ st_profiles/arkansas/ar.html>, viewed 7 September 2002, and with wind potential from Battelle/Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Assessment of Available Windy Land Area and Wind Energy Potential in the Contiguous United States (Battelle/PNL, August 1991), cited in Jan Hamrin and Nancy Rader, Investing in the Future: A Regulator’s Guide to Renewables (Washington, DC: National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners, February 1993), p. A-11. 64. Indian programs from MNES, op. cit. note 17. 65. Middelgrunden from EWEA and Greenpeace, op. cit. note 21, p. 20; benefits of cooperatives from Sawin, op. cit. note 56, p. 377; surveys from Andersen et al., Rapport om hvordan en dansk kommune blev selvforsynende med ren vindenergi og skabte ny indkomst til kommunens borgere, Nordvestjysk Folkecenter for Vedvarende Energi, 1997, cited in Steffen Damborg and Soren Krohn, “Public Attitudes Towards Wind Power,” Danish Wind Turbine Manufacturers Association, 1998, at <www.windpower.dk/articles/ surveys.htm>, viewed 13 April 1999. 60. Sawin, op. cit. note 56, pp. 151, 340–41. 61. Goldemberg, op. cit. note 2, p. 381. 66. Impact of standards in Denmark from Sawin, op. cit. note 56, pp. 261–62, 375; dominance of Danish turbine manufacturers from Søren 211 State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 5 Krohn, “Danish Wind Turbines: An Industrial Success Story,” 21 January 2000, at <www.wind power.dk/articles/success.htm>, viewed 28 January 2000, and from Birger Madsen, BTM Consult, discussion with author, 8 December 2000. 67. Denmark and Germany from Sawin, op. cit. note 56, p. 375; United Kingdom from Madsen, op. cit. note 20. 68. Low figure for conventional energy subsidies from Thomas Johansson, UNDP, quoted in Margot Roosevelt, “The Winds of Change,” Time, 26 August 2002, p. A-44; high figure from UNDP, “UNDP Initiative for Sustainable Energy—Summary,” at <www.undp.org/seed/energy/unise/ summary.html>, viewed 4 October 2002, and from Scheer, op. cit. note 55; 80–90 percent from International Energy Agency and from Martinot, op. cit. note 6. 69. Global Environment Facility funding from Martinot, op. cit. note 6; World Bank Group investments from Institute for Policy Studies (IPS), “The World Bank and the G-7: Changing the Earth’s Climate for Business,” June 1997, cited in Kate Hampton, Banking on Climate Change: How Public Finance for Fossil Fuel Projects is Short Changing Clean Development (Washington, DC: IPS, 17 November 2000), p. 6. 70. Manufacturers’ fears from California Energy Commission, Wind Energy Program Progress Report (Sacramento, CA: 1982), p. 23. 71. Decline in U.S. capacity from Gipe, op. cit. note 54; India from “Renewables Deserted?” Down to Earth, 30 April 2002, from MNES, op. cit. note 17, p. 69, and from “Why Renewables Cannot Penetrate the Market,” op. cit. note 62, p. 33; Torgny Møller, “Government Closes Door in Denmark,” Windpower Monthly, July 2002, p. 22. 72. Lower cost of consistent policies from Sawin, op. cit. note 56, pp. 360–63, 379. 73. Watson et al, op. cit. note 26. 74. BP from Amanda Griscom, “Got Sun? Mar- 212 keting the Revolution in Clean Energy,” Grist Magazine, 29 August 2002; Shell from Platts Global Energy, 2001, at <www.platts.com/renew ables/investment.shtml>, viewed 10 October 2002; $10–15 billion from World Bank, Global Development Finance 2000 (Washington, DC: 2000); eightfold increase from Martinot, op. cit. note 19, and from Massey, op. cit. note 19. 75. Model T from William J. Abernathy and Kenneth Wayne, “Limits of the Learning Curve,” Harvard Business Review, September-October 1974, cited in Christopher Flavin and Nicholas Lenssen, Power Surge (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1994), p. 304; wind generation by 2020 calculated to be about 6,833 billion kWh by Worldwatch, assuming capacity factor of 30 percent; global nuclear power generation in 2001 from International Atomic Energy Agency, cited in Nuclear Energy Institute, “World Nuclear Power Generation and Capacity,” at <www.nei.org/doc uments/World_Nuclear_Generation_and_Capa city.pdf>, viewed 11 October 2002. 76. Prime Minister Tony Blair, speech entitled “Environment: The Next Steps,” Reuters, 6 March 2001, cited in G8 Renewable Energy Task Force Report, op. cit. note 3, p. 16; European Union goal from European Wind Energy Association, “European Renewable Electricity Directive: The Final Version,” Wind Directions, January 2002, pp. 10–11; China and India from Christoper Flavin, discussions with author, September 2002; Brazil from Coelho, op. cit. note 17; members of Congress from Susanna Drayne, Coordinator, Sustainable Energy Coalition, e-mail to author, 11 October 2002; U.S. states from Interstate Renewable Energy Council, Database of State Incentives for Renewable Energy, at <www.dsireusa.org>, viewed 14 October 2002. 77. Paul Appleby, Director of Strategy and Planning, BP Solarex, United Kingdom, cited in Greenpeace, Breaking the Solar Impasse (Amsterdam: September 1999), p. 2. 78. G8 Renewable Energy Task Force, op. cit. note 3, p. 9; BP from Griscom, op. cit. note 74; Shell from Simon Tuck, “Royal Dutch/Shell Taking Minority Stake in Iogen,” Globe & Mail, State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTERS 5 AND 6 at <www.gogreenindustries.com/Clippings/ RoyalDutchShell8May02.pdf>, viewed 10 October 2002; Jones from Platts Global Energy, op. cit. note 74. 79. Meeting U.S. needs with wind calculated with data from Battelle/Pacific Northwest Laboratory, op. cit. note 63; solar in Nevada from U.S. Department of Energy, “Concentrating Solar Power Technologies Overview,” at <www.ener glan.sandia.gov/sunlab/overview.htm>, viewed 25 January 2002. 80. Fuel cell cars from “Factbox—What are Carmakers Doing to Cut Emissions?” Reuters, 24 September 2002. 81. IPCC, op. cit. note 9, p. 12. Chapter 6. Scrapping Mining Dependence 1. Peter L. Bernstein, The Power of Gold: The History of an Obsession (New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 2001), pp. 227–30; Kenneth Chang, “How Africa Landed Motherlode of Gold,” New York Times, 17 September 2002; H. E. Frimmel and W. E. L. Minter, “Recent Developments Concerning the Geological History and Genesis of the Witwatersrand Gold Deposits, South Africa,” Society of Economic Geologists, Special Publication 9 (2002), pp. 17–45; Lehman Brothers, Inc., Reverse Alchemy: The Commoditization of Gold Accelerates (New York: January 2000). 2. Bernstein, op. cit. note 1; Danielle Knight, “Communities Organize Legal Action to Clean up City’s Mine Dumps,” InterPress Service, 10 April 2001; author’s visit to Gauteng Province, South Africa, August 2002. 3. Bernstein, op. cit. note 1; Norman Jennings, International Labour Organization (ILO), Geneva, discussion with author, 19 July 2002; Glen Mpufane, National Union of Mineworkers, South Africa, discussion with author, 19 July 2002; ILO, The Evolution of Employment, Working Time and Training in the Mining Industry (Geneva: 2002). 4. Frank Press and Raymond Siever, Understanding Earth (New York: W.H. Freeman and Co., second edition, 1998); Ok Tedi waste from Mining, Minerals and Sustainable Development (MMSD) Project, Breaking New Ground (London: Earthscan, 2002), p. 243; city waste from Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), OECD Environmental Data Compendium 1999 (Paris: 2000), p. 159; deadly occupation from ILO, “Sectoral Activities: Mining,” information sheet, at <www.ilo.org/pub lic/english/dialogue/sector/sectors/mining.htm>, viewed 14 January 2002. 5. Toxic emissions refers to data for the United States per U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Toxic Release Inventory 2000, at <www.epa.gov/tri>, viewed 1 July 2002. Table 6–1 from the following: gross world product from U.N. Statistics Division, National Accounts Statistics: Main Aggregates and Detailed Tables, 1998 (New York: 2001), data supplied by Gonca Okur, World Bank, e-mail to author, 29 April 2002, and from World Bank, World Development Indicators 2001 (Washington, DC: 2001); employment from Norman Jennings, ILO, discussion with author, 18 July 2002, and e-mail to author, 10 October 2002, from ILO, LABORSTA database, at <laborsta.ilo.org/>, viewed 26 September 2002, and from World Bank, op. cit. this note; energy is Worldwatch estimate based on various sources cited later in this chapter; sulfur dioxide from Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands, at <arch.rivm.nl/env/int/core data/edgar/>, updated November 2001; forests from Dirk A. Bryant et al., The Last Frontier Forests: Ecosystems and Economies on the Edge (Washington, DC: World Resources Institute, 1997), p. 15. 6. Gary Gardner and Payal Sampat, Mind Over Matter: Recasting the Role of Materials in Our Lives, Worldwatch Paper 144 (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, December 1998); Kenneth Geiser, Materials Matter (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2000). 7. John E. Young, Mining the Earth, World- 213 State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 6 watch Paper 109 (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, July 1992). 8. Alan Mozes, “Ancient Mines Cause Modern Pollution,” Reuters, 26 November 2001; Figure 6–1 and minerals production from Grecia Matos, minerals and materials specialist, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Reston, VA, e-mail to author, 20 September 2001, from USGS, Minerals Yearbook (Reston, VA: various years), from idem, Mineral Commodity Summaries (Reston, VA: various years), and from United Nations, Industrial Commodity Statistics Yearbook (New York: various years). All data are for primary production of non-fuel minerals, except for the data for aluminum, which include some secondary production. 9. Production figures from Matos, op. cit. note 8, from USGS, Minerals Yearbook, op. cit. note 8, from idem, Mineral Commodity Summaries , op. cit. note 8, and from United Nations, op. cit. note 8. 10. Value calculated using USGS production data and minerals prices compiled from various sources by Jim Kuipers, Center for Science in Public Participation, Montana, unpublished research, September 2002. 11. Kuipers, op. cit. note 10. 12. USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2001 (Reston, VA: 2001). 13. Ibid. 14. CRU International, cited in MMSD, op. cit. note 4, p. 91. 15. Ibid., p. 90. 16. Emily Matthews et al., The Weight of Nations (Washington, DC: World Resources Institute, 2000), pp. 109–16. 17. Steel information from Joëlle Haine, International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI), letter to Dave Taylor, Worldwatch Institute, 30 July 2002, and from IISI, Steel Statistical Yearbook 2001 (Brussels: 2001); aluminum from Patricia Plunk- 214 ert, USGS, email to Dave Taylor, Worldwatch Institute, 14 June 2002; other metals from USGS, Minerals Yearbook, op. cit. note 8. 18. David Malin Roodman, The Natural Wealth of Nations (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1999); data for Figure 6–2 from Betty Dow, commodities information analyst, World Bank, e-mail to author, 19 April 2002. 19. Mining’s share of global economic product from U.N. Statistics Division, op. cit. note 5, from Okur, op. cit. note 5, and from World Bank, op. cit. note 5; mining company information from Raw Materials Group, Who Owns Who in Mining (Stockholm: 2001); small-scale miners from MMSD, op. cit. note 4, pp. 315–16. 20. Metals Economics Group, “Latin America Tops Exploration Spending for the Fourth Year,” press release (Halifax, NS: 16 October 1997); idem, “Exploration Spending Drops to its Lowest Level in Nine Years,” press release (Halifax, NS, Canada: 1 November 2001). Data represent 80–90 percent of worldwide exploration expenditures for precious, base, and other nonferrous hard metals. 21. Dan Murphy, “Green Gold,” Far Eastern Economic Review, 27 May 1999, pp. 45–47. 22. Ibid. 23. Mining and untouched forests from Bryant et al, op. cit. note 5; Matthew Green, “Mining Giant Treads Fine Line in Madagascar Forest,” Reuters, 19 December 2001; “Mining Companies Invade Peru’s Andean Cloud Forests,” Environment News Service, 17 August 2001; Simon Denyer, “Mining Drives Congo’s Gorillas Close to Extinction,” Reuters, 10 May 2001; “Environment Treasures to be Lost on Gag Island, Papua,” Tempo (Jakarta), 19–25 March 2002. 24. Sulfur dioxide from EDGAR, op. cit. note 5; U.S. toxics emissions from EPA, op. cit. note 5. Table 6–3 from the following: Congo from Denyer, op. cit. note 23; Papua New Guinea from MMSD, op. cit. note 4, p. 243; Russia from IUCN–World Conservation Union and World State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 6 Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), Metals from the Forest (Gland, Switzerland: January 1999), p. 17; Nevada from Robert McClure and Andrew Schneider, “More Than a Century of Mining Has Left the West Deeply Scarred,” Seattle Post-Intelligencer, 12 June 2001. 25. Energy use in metals production is a Worldwatch estimate. The figure includes energy used in extraction, smelting, and refining aluminum, copper, and steel, based on 2000–01 production statistics. Energy use per ton in primary and secondary aluminum production from U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Industrial Technologies, Energy and Environmental Profile of the U.S. Aluminum Industry (Washington, DC: 1997); in bauxite ore mining from Plunkert, op. cit. note 17; in primary copper production and extraction from Robert U. Ayres, Leslie W. Ayres, and Benjamin Warr, The Life Cycle of Copper, Its Co-products and Byproducts (Dordrecht, the Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers, in press, 2003), p. 24; in secondar y copper production from William Dresher, Copper Development Association, e-mail to Dave Taylor, Worldwatch Institute, 12 July 2002; in primary and secondary steel production from I. Chan and N. Margolis, “Opportunities for Reducing Steelmaking Energy Use,” Iron and Steelmaker Magazine, vol. 29, no. 1 (2002), p. 24; in iron ore mining from IISI, LCI Methodology Report (Brussels: 1997). Total world energy use from International Energy Agency (IEA), Key World Energy Statistics, “Total Final Consumption by Fuel,” at <www.iea.org/statist/ key2001/key2001/p_0303.htm>, viewed 10 July 2002, and from idem, World Energy Outlook 2000 (Paris: 2000). Primary and secondary copper production and primary aluminum production from USGS, Minerals Yearbook 2000 (Reston, VA: 2000); secondary aluminum production from Plunkert, op. cit. note 17; bauxite production from USGS, 2001 Mineral Commodity Summary —Bauxite and Alumina, at <minerals.er.usgs.gov/ minerals/pubs/commodity/bauxite/090301.pdf>, viewed 16 July 2002; iron ore production from USGS, 2001 Mineral Commodity Summary—Iron Ore, at <minerals.er.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/ commodity/iron_ore/340301.pdf>, viewed 16 July 2002; total steel production from idem, 2000 Minerals Yearbook, op. cit. this note. Fifty-nine per- cent of steel is produced using the basic oxygen furnace method (primary) and 34 percent is produced using the electric-arc furnace method (secondary), based on information from Michael Fenton, USGS commodity specialist, e-mail to Dave Taylor, Worldwatch Institute, 30 April 2002. Latin America from IEA, World Energy Outlook 2000, op. cit. this note. 26. U.S. Department of Energy, Energy and Environmental Profile of the U.S. Aluminum Industry (Washington, DC: 1997), p. 12; cement based on data from Henrik van Oss, cement commodity specialist, USGS, Reston, VA, discussion with author, 6 November 1998, from Henrik G. van Oss, “Cement,” in USGS, Mineral Yearbook 1996 (Reston, VA: 1996), and from Seth Dunn, “Carbon Emissions Resume Rise,” in Lester Brown et al., Vital Signs 1998 (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1998); perfluorocarbons from Jennifer Gitlitz, Trashed Cans: The Global Environmental Impacts of Aluminum Can Wasting in America (Arlington, VA: Container Recycling Institute, June 2002), pp. 12–13, and from EPA, International Efforts to Reduce PFC Emissions from Primary Aluminum Production (Washington, DC: September 1999). 27. IUCN and WWF, op. cit. note 24, pp. 8, 15. 28. Waste from Canadian mines from OECD, op. cit. note 4; dumptruck dimensions from <www.caterpillar.com>, viewed 22 May 2002. 29. Totals and Table 6–4 from the following: minerals production from USGS, Minerals Yearbook 2000 (Reston, VA: 2000); waste is Worldwatch estimate based on ore grades from USGS commodity specialists, and from Donald Rogich and Staff, Division of Mineral Commodities, U.S. Bureau of Mines, “Material Use, Economic Growth and the Environment,” presented at the International Recycling Congress and REC ’93 Trade Fair, Geneva, Switzerland, January 1993. 30. Copper grade decline data supplied by Daniel Edelstein, commodity specialist, USGS, e-mail to Dave Taylor, Worldwatch Institute, 17 July 2002. 31. Robert McClure and Andrew Schneider, 215 State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 6 “The Mining of the West: Profit and Pollution on Public Lands,” multipart series, Seattle Post-Intelligencer, 11–14 June 2001; Mineral Policy Center (MPC), Golden Dreams, Poisoned Streams (Washington, DC: 1997). 32. U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP), “Mining and Sustainable Development II,” special issue, Industry and Environment, vol. 23 (2000); MPC, op. cit. note 31. 33. “Disastrous Cyanide Spill Could Spawn Liability Reforms,” Environmental Science and Technology, 1 May 2000, pp. 202a–03a; MMSD, op. cit. note 4, p. 240; UNEP, op. cit. note 32, pp. 7–8, 64–65. 34. MPC, op. cit. note 31, pp. 5, 64–68. 35. Table 6–5 from the following: ZortmanLandusky from Global Mining Campaign, Digging Deep (Washington, DC: 2002); Tambo Grande from Scott Wilson, “A Life Worth More than Gold,” Washington Post, 9 June 2002; Myanmar from International Chemical, Energy, Mine and General Workers’ Unions (ICEM), North America, “CLC and ICEM tell Ivanhoe Mines to Withdraw from Burma,” press release (Washington, DC: 30 June 2002), and from Matthew McClearn, “Stranger in a Strange Land,” Canadian Business, 18 February 2002; Torréon from “Greenpeace Highlights Mexican Metals Violations,” Reuters, 27 August 1999. 36. ILO, op. cit. note 4. 37. MMSD, op. cit. note 4, p. 204; Helen Epstein, “The Hidden Cause of AIDS,” New York Review of Books, 9 May 2002, pp. 43–49. 38. MMSD, op. cit. note 4, p. 65; Kenneth Zinn, ICEM North America, e-mail to author, 16 September 2002. 39. Roger Moody, “The Lure of Gold—How Golden Is the Future?” Panos Media Briefing No. 19 (London: Panos Institute, May 1996); Indonesia from Survival for Tribal Peoples, “Indonesian Army Kills and Rapes Tribal People,” news release (London: October 1998); Australia from IUCN 216 and WWF, op. cit. note 24, p. 6, and from Global Mining Campaign, op. cit. note 35; French Guiana from Ed Susman, “The Price of Gold,” Environmental Health Perspectives, 5 May 2001, p. A225. 40. Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (Chicago: H. Regnery Co., 1909); Michael Ross, Extractive Sectors and the Poor (Boston: Oxfam America, October 2001). 41. Jeffrey D. Sachs and Andrew M. Warner, Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth (Cambridge, MA: Center for International Development and Harvard Institute for International Development, November 1997); Richard M. Auty, Resource Abundance and Economic Development (Helsinki: World Institute for Development Economics Research, 2000). 42. Thomas Michael Power, Digging to Development? A Historical Look at Mining and Economic Development (Washington, DC: Oxfam America, 2002), quote from p. 20; idem, Lost Landscapes and Failed Economies (Washington, DC: Island Press, 1996); Johannes Stahl, “The Man-Eating Mines of Potosí,” Cultural Survival Quarterly, spring 2001, p. 50; MMSD, op. cit. note 4, p. 232. 43. World Bank, World Development Indicators 2002 (Washington, DC: 2002), pp. 268–70. 44. U.N. Conference on Trade and Development, The Least Developed Countries Report 2002 (New York: 2002), chapter 4. 45. Power, Digging to Development, op. cit. note 42; “The Natural Resources Myth,” The Economist, 23 December 1995–5 January 1996, pp. 87–89. 46. Social services from Nancy Birdsall, Thomas Pinckney, and Richard Sabot, Natural Resources, Human Capital, and Growth (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, February 2000); conflict from Michael Renner, The Anatomy of Resource Wars, Worldwatch Paper 162 (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, October 2002); corruption from Transparency International, “Corrupt Political Elites and Unscrupulous State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 6 Investors Kill Sustainable Growth in its Tracks, Highlights New Index,” press release (Berlin: 28 August 2002), and from MMSD, op. cit. note 4, p. 185. 47. Power, Digging to Development, op. cit. note 42, p. 27; Auty, op. cit. note 41. 48. Eugenio Figueroa, Enrique Calfucura, and Javier Nuñez, “Green National Accounting: The Case of Chile’s Mining Sector,” Environment and Development Economics, vol. 7, pp. 215–39, quote on p. 215. Economies,” Mining Engineering, January 1997, pp. 31–36; Travis Q. Lyday, “The Mineral Industry of Papua New Guinea,” Pablo Velasco, “The Mineral Industry of Ecuador,” and Ivette E. Torres, “The Mineral Industry of Argentina,” all in USGS, op. cit. note 29; Ivette E. Torres, USGS country specialist, discussion with Dave Taylor, Worldwatch Institute, 21 October 2002; Thomas Yager, USGS commodity specialist, e-mail to Dave Taylor, Worldwatch Institute, 22 October 2002; Amy Rosenfeld Sweeting and Andrea P. Clark, Lightening the Lode: A Guide to Responsible Largescale Mining (Washington, DC: Conservation International, 2000). 49. Power, Lost Landscapes, op. cit. note 42. 50. World Bank and International Finance Corporation (IFC), It’s Not Over When It’s Over: Mine Closure Around the World (Washington, DC: 2002); Placer Dome, at <www.placerdome.com/ properties/misima/misima_history.html>, viewed 22 October 2002; idem, at <www.placerdome .com/properties/porgera/porgera_history.html>, viewed 22 October 2002; Ok Tedi, at <www.ok tedi.com/ aboutus/history.php>, viewed 22 October 2002. 51. ILO, op. cit. note 3, p. 10. 52. Ibid.; “China’s Consultative Body Urges Mining Cities to Find Alternative Industries,” Xinhua, 27 June 2002. 53. ILO, op. cit. note 3; Power, Lost Landscapes, op. cit. note 42. 54. Babbitt quoted in Robert McClure and Andrew Schneider, “The General Mining Act of 1872 has Left a Legacy of Riches and Ruin,” Seattle Post-Intelligencer, 11 June 2001. 55. General Accounting Office (GAO), Mineral Royalties: Royalties in the Western States and in Major Mineral-Producing Countries, report to the U.S. Senate (Washington, DC: March 1993), p. 6; “South Africa Mining Bill Approved,” BBC News, 25 June 2002. 56. GAO, op. cit. note 55; James P. Dorian, “Mining—Changing Picture in Transitional 57. MPC, Burden of Gilt (Washington, DC: 1993); Alan Septoff, MPC, discussion with author, 11 August 2002; McClure and Schneider, op. cit. note 31. 58. Geoff Evans, James Goodman, and Nina Lansbury, eds., Moving Mountains (Sydney: Mineral Policy Institute and Otford Press, 2001), pp. 37–39; Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) and Yanacocha from Extractive Industries Review, at <www.eireview.org/eir/eirhome.nsf/ (DocLibrary)/5F1200213759BEAA85256C2200 68CD34/$FILE/MIGA%20List%20Aug%2025 .xls>, viewed 12 September 2002; Omai from Harvey Van Velduizen, MIGA, discussions with Dave Taylor, Worldwatch Institute, 8 October and 10 October 2002, and from Friends of the Earth, Risky Business: How the World Bank’s Insurance Arm Fails the Poor and Harms the Environment (Washington, DC: 2001), pp. 14–16; Kumtor from CEE Bankwatch, Mountains of Gold: Kumtor Gold Mine in Kyrgyz Republic (Budapest: 2002), p. 30. 59. Energy savings is a Worldwatch estimate based on references cited in note 25; Iddo K. Wernick and Nickolas J. Themelis, “Recycling Metals for the Environment,” Annual Review of Energy and the Environment 1998 (Palo Alto, CA: Annual Reviews, 1998), pp. 465–97. 60. Figure 6–3 from Lehman Brothers, Inc., op. cit. note 1, based on data from the International Monetary Fund. 217 State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 6 61. Gold Fields Minerals Services Ltd., Gold Survey 2002 (London: April 2002). 62. Figure 6–4 from C. Zeltner et al., “Sustainable Metal Management Exemplified by Copper in the USA,” Regional Environmental Change, November 1999, pp. 31–46; S. Spatari et al., “The Contemporary European Copper Cycle: One Year Stocks and Flows,” Ecological Economics, in press (2002) pp. 31–46; Ayres, Ayres, and Warr, op. cit. note 25; share from secondary supplies from USGS, op. cit. note 8. 63. Patrick Kelly, “From Cans to Autos,” Resource Recycling, January 2002, pp. 30–31; Gitlitz, op. cit. note 26. 64. Robert McClure and Andrew Schneider, “Powerful Friends in Congress,” Seattle Post-Intelligencer, 14 June 2001. 65. Frank Ackerman, Why do We Recycle? (Washington, DC: Island Press, 1997). 66. Geiser, op. cit. note 6. 67. “Eighty-Six Percent of Discarded Cars’ Weight Can Now be Recycled, Organization Says,” International Environment Reporter, 17 March 1999, p. 249. 68. EPA, “Product Stewardship—International Initiatives for Electronics,” at <www.epa.gov/ epr/products/eintern.html>, updated 18 June 2002; “Electronics Producers Must Pay for Electronic Wastes,” Environmental News Service, 14 October 2002. 69. Robert Ayres, Towards Zero Emissions: Is There a Feasible Path? Introduction to ZERI Phase II (Fontainebleau, France: European Institute of Business Administration, May 1998). 70. Canadian Labour Congress (CLC), “CLC Policy on Just Transition for Workers During Environmental Change,” endorsed by CLC Executive Council, April 1999; Michael Renner, Working for the Environment: A Growing Source of Jobs, Worldwatch Paper 152 (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, September 2000); James Barratt, 218 Worker Transition and Global Climate Change (Washington, DC: Pew Center for Global Climate Change, 2002). 71. South Africa from Mpufane, op. cit. note 3, and from Jennings, op. cit. note 3; recycling and remanufacturing jobs from R. W. Beck, Inc., U.S. Recycling Economic Information Study, prepared for the National Recycling Coalition (July 2001), and from EPA, Macroeconomic Importance of Recycling and Remanufacturing (Washington, DC: October 1998), pp. 3–5. 72. “Old Silver Mining Town to Cash in on Wind,” Environment News Service, 28 September 2000; Li Rongrong quoted in “China’s Consultative Body Urges Mining Cities to Find Alternative Industries,” Xinhua, 27 June 2002. 73. WWF International and WWF–UK, To Dig or Not to Dig? (London: 2002). 74. Pacheco quoted in “Costa Rica Cracks Down on Mining, Logging,” Reuters, 11 June 2002; Carlos Zorilla, DECOIN, Cotacachi, Ecuador, email to author, 10 July 2002. 75. “Romanian Cyanide Spill Prompts Calls for Ban on Chemical’s Use in Other Mines,” International Environmental Reporter, 30 August 2000, p. 676; “New Czech Legislation Bans Use of Cyanide Leaching Technologies in Mining,” International Environmental Reporter, 25 October 2000, p. 834; Federal Parliament of Germany, “Minimization of the Environmental and Health Hazards of Gold Production,” motion of the SPD (Social Democrats) and 90 Alliance (Greens), approved on 24 January 2002; Philippines from Marcos Orellana, “Unearthing Governance: Obstacles and Opportunities for Public Participation in Minerals Policy,” in Carl Bruch, ed., The New “Public”: The Globalization of Public Participation (Washington, DC: Environmental Law Institute, 2002), p. 238; Montana from CEE Bankwatch et al., “Cyanide Mining Hazards Endanger Communities, Environment,” press release (Prague: 21 February 2002). 76. MPC, op. cit. note 57; World Bank and IFC, op. cit. note 50; Jim Kuipers, Center for Science State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTERS 6 AND 7 in Public Participation, testimony before the Subcommittee on Energy and Resources, U.S. House of Representatives, Hearing on Availability of Bonds to Meet Federal Requirements for Mining, Oil, and Gas, Washington, DC, 23 July 2002; MPC, “Bush Administration Sets Stage for Mine Cleanup Scandal,” press release (Washington, DC: August 2002). 77. See, for instance, <www.theminingnews.org> and <minesandcommunities.org>. 78. Grasberg from Extractive Industries Review, op. cit. note 58; Rosia Montana from Neil J. King Jr., “Romanian Gold-Mine Loan is Blocked by Wolfensohn,” Wall Street Journal, 11 October 2002; Extractive Industries Review at <www .eireview.org>. 79. MMSD, op. cit. note 4; John E. Young, ed., Not Digging Deep Enough (Washington, DC: MPC et al., October 2002 draft). Chapter 7. Uniting Divided Cities 1. Histor y of apartheid from Keith S. O. Beavon, “Johannesburg: A City and Metropolitan Area in Transformation,” in Carole Rakodi, ed., The Urban Challenge in Africa: Growth and Management of Its Largest Cities (Tokyo: United Nations University Press, 1997), pp. 150–91; toilets in Johannesburg from Jo Beall, Owen Crankshaw, and Susan Parnell, “Victims, Villains and Fixers: The Urban Environment and Johannesburg’s Poor,” Journal of Southern African Studies, December 2000, pp. 833–55; Alexandra from Jo Beall, Owen Crankshaw, and Susan Parnell, Uniting a Divided City: Governance and Social Exclusion in Johannesburg (London: Earthscan, 2002), pp. 154–59; inequality in public health from Lynn Dalrymple, “Building Healthy Cities and Improving Health Systems for the Urban Poor in South Africa,” in Samson James Opolot, ed., Building Healthy Cities: Improving the Health of Urban Migrants and The Urban Poor in Africa (Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 2002), pp. 121–29; share of Johannesburg’s population that is black from Steven Friedman, “A Quest for Control: High Modernism and its Discontents in Johannesburg, South Africa,” in Blair A. Ruble et al., eds., Urban Governance Around the World (Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 2002), p. 32. 2. Stephen Berrisford, “Law and Urban Change in the New South Africa,” in Edésio Fernandes and Ann Varley, eds., Illegal Cities: Law and Urban Change in Developing Countries (London: Zed Books, 1998), pp. 213–29; Plato, The Republic, cited in James Clapp, The City: A Dictionary of Quotable Thoughts on Cities and Urban Life (New Brunswick, NJ: Center for Urban Policy Research, Rutgers University, 1984), p. 194; Laila Iskandar Kamel, The Informal Solid Waste Sector in Egypt: Prospects for Formalization (Cairo: CID with funding from the Institute of International Education and the Ford Foundation, January 2001); African Population and Health Research Center, Population and Health Dynamics in Nairobi’s Informal Settlements, Report of the Nairobi Cross-Sectional Slums Survey (Nairobi: April 2002); Mumbai from Arjun Appadurai, “Deep Democracy: Urban Governmentality and the Horizon of Politics,” Environment and Urbanization, October 2001, pp. 23–43. 3. Jane Lubchenco, presentation at the State of the Earth conference, Columbia University Earth Institute, 13 May 2002, updating Peter M. Vitousek et al., “Human Domination of Earth’s Ecosystems,” Science, 25 July 1997, pp. 494–99; global world product from David Malin Roodman, “Economic Growth Falters,” in Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs 2002 (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2002), pp. 58–59. 4. Definition of sustainable development from World Commission on Environment and Development, Our Common Future (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1987). Roughly 78 percent of carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement manufacturing, and 76 percent of industrial wood use worldwide, occur in urban areas. Some 60 percent of the planet’s water that is tapped for human use goes to cities in one form or another. About half of this water irrigates food crops for urban residents, roughly a third is used by city industry, and the remainder is for drinking and sanitation. These calculations, done by the author in 219 State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 7 May 1999, are based on urban population from United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 1996 Revision (New York: 1996), on share of gross domestic product from industry and services from World Bank, World Development Indicators 1997, CD-ROM (Washington, DC: 1997), and from World Bank, World Development Indicators 1998 (Washington, DC: 1998), on carbon emissions from G. Marland et al., “Global, Regional, and National CO2 Emission Estimates from Fossil Fuel Burning, Cement Production, and Gas Flaring: 1751–1995 (revised March 1999),” Oak Ridge National Laboratory, <cdiac.esd.ornl .gov>, viewed 22 April 1999, on industrial roundwood consumption from U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, FAOSTAT Statistics Database, at <apps.fao.org>, and on water from I.A. Shiklomanov, “Global Water Resources,” Nature and Resources, vol. 26, no. 3 (1990). 5. Levels of urbanization from U.N. Population Division (UNPD), World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision (New York: 2002); Freedom House, Freedom in the World: The Annual Survey of Political Rights and Civil Liberties, 2000–2001 (New York: 2001); U.N. Development Programme (UNDP), Human Development Report 2002 (New York: 2002); Figure 7–1 based on UN-HABITAT, The State of the World’s Cities 2001 (Nairobi: United Nations Centre for Human Settlements, 2001), pp. 116–17. 6. Cities in history from Peter Hall, Cities in Civilization (New York: Pantheon Books, 1998); cities today from Joseph Rykwert, The Seduction of Place: The City in the Twenty-first Century (New York: Pantheon Books, 2000); cities in 2015 from UNPD, op. cit. note 5. 7. Richard Stren, “Introduction: Toward the Comparative Study of Urban Governance,” in Richard Stren and Patricia McCarney, Urban Governance in the Developing World: Innovations and Discontinuities (Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center and Johns Hopkins University, in press); Nick Devas with Philip Amis et al., “Urban Governance and Poverty: Lessons From a Study of Ten Cities in the South (Birmingham, U.K.: University of Birmingham, June 2001). 220 8. Jorge E. Hardoy and David Satterthwaite, Squatter Citizen: Life in the Urban Third World (London: Earthscan, 1989). 9. The United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT) uses an index weighted heavily toward lack of secure tenure to estimate the number of people living in slums worldwide; UN-HABITAT, “Millennium Development Goal 7, Target 11, Indicator 31” (Nairobi: 2001), from Christine Auclair, Global Urban Observatory, UN-HABITAT, e-mail to author, 30 October 2002. 10. Estimates for 1993 and 2001 from ibid.; higher estimate of more than 1 billion people living in inadequate housing from UN-HABITAT, op. cit. note 5, p. 30. 11. Figure 7–2 from UNPD, op. cit. note 5, p. 1; David Satterthwaite, Coping with Rapid Urban Growth, Leading Edge Series (London: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, September 2002). 12. World Bank, World Development Report 2000/2001 (New York: Oxford University Press, 2000), p. 23 (the $1 a day estimate is in 1993 purchasing power parity terms); 1.2 billion from Shaohua Chen and Martin Ravallion, How Did the World’s Poorest Fare in the 1990s? World Bank Group Policy Research Work Paper 2409 (Washington, DC: August 2000); Martin Ravallion, “On the Urbanization of Poverty,” Journal of Development Economics, vol. 857 (2002, in press); Martin Ravallion, e-mail to Elizabeth Bast, Worldwatch Institute, 15 May 2002. 13. Jeffrey Sachs, “The Economics of Sustainability,” Keynote Address for the Distinguished Lecture Series, World Bank, Washington, DC, 16 April 2002. 14. Hardoy and Satterthwaite, op. cit. note 8, p. 15; Kenyan building codes from Richard Stren, University of Toronto, e-mail to author, 23 September 2002. 15. UN-HABITAT, “Global Urban Indicators,” at <www.unchs.org/guo/gui/>, data are com- State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 7 parable as of 1993; World Bank, op. cit. note 12, p. 275; Stren, op. cit. note 7. 16. Transparency International, Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index 2002 (Berlin: 2002). 17. Figure 7–3 from the following: urban growth from UNPD, op. cit. note 5; poverty from World Bank, World Development Indicators 2001 (Washington DC: 2001); corruption from Transparency International, op. cit. note 16, based on surveys from 2000–02. 18. Box 7–1 from the following: Mtumba description from Lawrence Apiyo, Pamoja Trust, Nairobi, and from George Ng’ang’a, Tom Werunga, and Isaac Mburu, Mtumba Governing Council, Nairobi, discussions with author, 19 February 2001; health problems from F. Nii-Amoo Dodoo, “The Urban Poor and Health Systems in East Africa: Voices from Nairobi’s Slums,” in Opolot, op. cit. note 1, pp. 9–19; under-five mortality rates from African Population and Health Research Center, Population and Health Dynamics in Nairobi’s Informal Settlements, Report of the Nairobi Cross-Sectional Slums Survey (Nairobi: April 2002), pp. 86–92. 19. UN-HABITAT, Nairobi Housing Survey (Nairobi: 2001); Hardoy and Satterthwaite, op. cit. note 8. 20. Richard Stren and Mario Polèse, “Understanding the New Sociocultural Dynamics of Cities: Comparative Urban Policy in a Global Context,” in Mario Polèse and Richard Stren, The Social Sustainability of Cities: Diversity and the Management of Change (Toronto, Canada: University of Toronto Press, 2000), pp. 26–28. 21. Water prices from Jorge E. Hardoy, Diana Mitlin, and David Satterthwaite, Environmental Problems in an Urbanizing World (London: Earthscan, 2001), p. 48; sanitation from ibid., p. 57. 22. Two conferences from David Satterthwaite, International Institute for Environment and Development, e-mail to author, 27 September 2002; related health problems from Hardoy, Mitlin, and Satterthwaite, op. cit. note 21, pp. 39–43; cholera from Carolyn Stephens, “Healthy Cities or Unhealthy Islands: The Health and Social Implications of Urban Inequality,” Environment and Urbanization, October 1996, p. 16; malaria from Gilbert M. Khadiagala, “Urban Governance and Health in East Africa,” in Opolot, op. cit. note 1, pp. 112–14. 23. Sheela Patel, Society for Preservation of Area Resource Centres (SPARC), Mumbai, presentation at UN-HABITAT, Nairobi, 14 February 2001. 24 “Childhood Tuberculosis in an Urban Population in South Africa: Burden and Risk Factor,” Archives of Disease in Childhood, vol. 80, no. 5 (1999), pp. 433–37; HIV and tuberculosis from Lisa Mastny, “Tuberculosis Resurging Worldwide,” in Lester R. Brown et al., Vital Signs 2000 (New York: W.W. Norton & Company), pp. 148–49. 25. George A. Kaplan et al., “Inequality in Income and Mortality in the United States,” in Ichiro Kawachi, Bruce P. Kennedy, and Richard G. Wilkinson, eds., The Society and Population Health Reader: Income Inequality and Health (New York: New Press, 1999), pp. 50–59; industrial nations from Sandra J. McIsaac and Richard G. Wilkinson, “Income Distribution and Cause-Specific Mortality,” in ibid., pp. 124–36. 26. Thomas Friedman, “Ask Not What?” (op ed), New York Times, 9 December 2001; Terry McDermott, “The Plot: How Terrorists Hatched a Simple Plan to Use Planes As Bombs,” Los Angeles Times, 1 September 2002; Douglas Frantz et al., “Threats and Responses: Pieces of a Puzzle; On Plotters’ Path to U.S., A Stop at bin Laden Camp,” New York Times, 10 September 2002. 27. John F. C. Turner, interview by Robert Chavez, World Bank, Washington, DC, 11 September 2000, in World Bank Urban Forum, at <www.worldbank.org/urban/forum2002/index .html>, viewed 21 October 2002. 28. John F. C. Turner, Housing by People: Towards Autonomy in Building Environments (New York: Pantheon Books, 1976), p. xvi; Janice Perlman, 221 State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 7 The Myth of Marginality: Urban Poverty and Politics in Rio de Janeiro (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1976). 29. History from Charles Abrams, Man’s Struggle for Shelter in an Urbanizing World (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 1964); policies from Shlomo Angel, Housing Policy Matters: A Global Analysis (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000). 30. Hardoy and Satterthwaite, op. cit. note 8, pp. 126–27; Johan Silas, Surabaya Institute of Technology, e-mail to Elizabeth Bast, Worldwatch Institute, 15 July 2002. 31. UN-HABITAT, An Urbanizing World: Global Report on Human Settlements, 1996 (Oxford: Oxford University Press for Habitat, 1996), pp. 344–47; 1990 from Jeff Kenworthy, “Urban Ecology in Indonesia: The Kampung Improvement Program (KIP),” at <wwasdev.mur doch.edu.au/cases/kip/kip.pdf>, 1997; 2001 from Johan Silas, Surabaya Institute of Technology, e-mail to Elizabeth Bast, Worldwatch Institute, 15 July 2002. 32. Mounir Neamatalla, “Zabaleen Environment and Development Program: Cairo, Egypt,” MegaCities Project, 1998, at <www.megacities project.org/publications/pdf/mcp018d.pdf>, viewed 15 July 2002; Ahktar Badshah, Our Urban Future: New Paradigms for Equity and Sustainability (London: Zed Books, 1996), pp. 65–69. 33. Laila Iskandar Kamel, “Urban Governance, The Informal Sector, and Municipal Solid Waste in Cairo,” Community and Institutional Development paper, March 2000. egory in Mumbai; percentages from Appadurai, op. cit. note 2, p. 27. 36. Sheela Patel, Sundar Burra, and Celine D’Cruz, “Shack/Slum Dwellers International (SDI): Foundations to Treetops,” Environment and Urbanization, October 2001, pp. 45–60; nonpartisan political strategy from Appadurai, op. cit. note 2, p. 27. 37. Homeless International, “Defending the Housing Rights of Railway Dwellers of Mumbai,” in Jim Antoniou, ed., Implementing the Habitat Agenda: In Search of Urban Sustainability (London: The Development Planning Unit, University College London, with the U.K. Department for International Development and UNHABITAT), pp. 18–19. 38. Patel, Burra, and D’Cruz, op. cit. note 36; SDI Newsletter, March 2002; Jack Makau, Pamoja Trust, Nairobi, discussion with author, May 2002. 39. Hardoy and Satterthwaite, op. cit. note 8, p. 306; Environment and Urbanization cited in International Institute for Environment and Development, Rethinking Aid to Urban Poverty Reduction: Lessons for Donors, Environment & Urbanization Brief #3 (London: April 2001). 40. Akbar Zaidi, From the Lane to the City: The Impact of the Orangi Pilot Project’s Sanitation Model (London: Water Aid, June 2001), p. 13; David Sims, “What is Secure Tenure in Urban Egypt,” in Geoffrey Payne, ed., Land, Rights, and Innovation (London: Intermediate Technology Development Group (ITDG), 2002), pp. 79–99. 34. Infant mortality from Neamatalla, op. cit. note 32, pp. 15–16; number of Zabbaleen workers and tons of trash from Laila Iskandar Kamel, “Cairo: A City That Learns from the Mokattam Recyclers,” Community and Institutional Development (CID), The Social Research Center, The American University in Cairo, Egypt, March 1999; other statistics and Cairo’s future plans from Kamel, op. cit. note 2. 41. Hernando de Soto, The Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else (New York: Basic Books, 2000). 35. “Slum” is a formally defined settlement cat- 44. Payne, op. cit. note 40, p. 22. 222 42. Ayako Kagawa and Jan Turkstra, “The Process of Urban Land Tenure Formalization in Peru,” in Payne, op. cit. note 40, pp. 57–75. 43. Angel, op. cit. note 29. State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 7 45. UN-HABITAT, at <www.unhabitat.org>, viewed 1 October 2002; United Nations, Millennium Summit Declaration, at <www.un.org/mil lennium/summit.htm>, viewed 10 October 2002; Cities Alliance, 2001 Annual Report (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2001). 46. Billy Cobbett, Cities Alliance, Washington, DC, discussion with author, 24 April 2002. 47. Survey of mayors from UNDP, “Urban Problems Remain Similar Worldwide,” press release (New York: 28 July 1997); Box 7–2 from Carlos Zorilla, DECOIN, e-mail to Elizabeth Bast, Worldwatch Institute, 8 June 2002, from Municipality of Santa Ana De Cotacachi, “Ordinance Declaring Cotacachi An ‘Ecological County’,” 11 September 2000, and from UNESCO Cities for Peace Prize, at <www.unesco.org/culture/citiesfor peace/index.shtml>, viewed 8 June 2002. 48. “Reciprocity Waste Recycling Programme in Santo Andre,” in Antoniou, op. cit. note 37, pp. 172–73. 49. Eduardo Spiaggi, “Urban Agriculture and Local Sustainable Development: The Integration of Economic, Social, Technical and Environmental Variables in Rosario Argentina,” presented at the International Development Research Centre Agropolis Awaredee Conference, Ottawa, Canada, 26 March 2002; Eduardo Spiaggi, Centro de Estudios Ambiantales, Argentina, e-mail to author, 4 October 2002. 50. Curitiba from Jonas Rabinovitch and Josef Leitmann, Environmental Innovation and Management in Curitiba, Brazil, UMP Working Paper No. 1 (Washington, DC: UNDP/Habitat/World Bank, 1993); Juiz de Fora from Yves Cabannes, Urban Management Programme, Quito, Ecuador, e-mail to author, 5 September 2002. 51. UNDP, Urban Agriculture: Food, Jobs and Sustainable Cities (New York: 1996); Calcutta from Madhursee Mukerjee, “The Fishy Business of Waste,” Scientific American, April 1995, p. 40; Camillus Sawio, “Urban Agriculture in Dar es Salaam,” IDRC Research Network, at <net work.idrc.ca>, viewed 5 September 2002; Stefan Dongas, “Vegetable Production on Open Spaces in Dar es Salaam—Spatial Changes from 1992 to 1999,” Urban Agriculture Notes, <www.city farmer.org/daressalaam.html>, viewed 5 September 2002; Tanzania’s policy from Jac Smit, The Urban Agriculture Network, Washington, DC, presentation at “Reducing Poverty and Strengthening Growth: The Urban Perspective,” Woodrow Wilson International Center, Washington, DC, 25–26 July 2002; potential of policies to increase urban agriculture from UNDP, op. cit. this note, and from Joe Howe, “Planning for Urban Food: The Experience of Two UK Cities,” Planning Practice & Research, vol. 17, no. 2 (2002), pp. 125–44. 52. Alison Brown with Tony Lloyd-Jones, “Spatial Planning, Access, and Infrastructure,” in Carole Rakodi with Tony Lloyd-Jones, eds., Urban Livelihoods: A People-Centred Approach to Reducing Poverty (London: Earthscan, 2002), pp. 188–204. 53. Jeffrey Maganya, Program Manager for the Transport Program in East Africa, ITDG, Nairobi, Kenya, discussion with author, 8 May 2001; Kenya bicycle tax from VNG uitgeverij, The Economic Significance of Cycling: A Study to Illustrate the Costs and Benefits of Cycling Policy (The Hague: 2000), p. 42. 54. Curitiba’s bus system from Jonas Rabinovitch and Josef Leitman, “Urban Planning in Curitiba,” Scientific American, March 1996, pp. 26–33; zoning laws from Jonas Rabinovitch and John Hoehn, “A Sustainable Urban Transportation System: The ‘Surface Metro’ in Curitiba Brazil,” report of the Environmental and Natural Resources Policy and Training Project (Madison, WI: University of Wisconsin, 19 May 1995), pp. 35–37, and from Jonas Rabinovitch, “Innovative Land Use and Public Transport Policy,” Land Use Policy, vol. 13, no. 1 (1996), pp. 51–67; Bogotá from Oscar Edmundo Diaz, “Awake at the Wheel: Bogotá’s Response to the Transportation Challenge,” Encompass, Februar y/March 2001, pp. 5–7, from Enrique Peñalosa, visiting scholar at New York University, New York, discussion with author, 3 May 2001, and from Steven Ambrus, “Bogotá Takes a Breather,” EcoAmericas, March 2000, p. 10; Lima 223 State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 7 from Thomas Kohler, “Public Transportation: New Municipality Venture,” press release (Washington, DC: American Public Transportation Association, 9 April 2002); Lake Sagaris, Ciudad Viva, Santiago, Chile, discussion with author, 18 September 2001; Patricio Lanfranco, Ciudad Viva, Santiago, Chile, discussion with author, 18 April 2001. 55. Paul S. Grogan and Tony Proscio, Comeback Cities: A Blueprint For Urban Neighborhood Revival (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 2000), p. 108. 56. UN-HABITAT, Cities in a Globalizing World: Global Report on Human Settlements 2001 (Nairobi: 2001), p. 81. Table 7–2 from the following: India, Philippines, and South Africa from Center for Urban Development Studies (CUDS) at the Harvard University Graduate School of Design, Development Alternative Inc., and U.S. Agency for International Development, MicroEnterprise Practices, Housing Microfinance Initiatives (Cambridge, MA: May 2000); Brazil from CUDS, “Microcredit Summit,” at <www.gsd.har vard.edu/research/research_centers/cuds/micro credit.html>, viewed 8 August 2001, and from UN-HABITAT, Best Practices Database 2000, <www.bestpractices.org>, viewed 8 August 2002. 57. South Africa from UN-HABITAT, Cities in a Globalizing World, op. cit. note 56, p. 80; Cambodia from Asian Coalition for Housing Rights, “Building an Urban Poor People’s Movement in Phnom Penh, Cambodia,” Environment and Urbanization, October 2001, pp. 61–72; Philippines from Missionaries Social Development Foundation Incorporated, Manila, “Meet the Philippines Homeless People’s Federation,” Environment and Urbanization, October 2001, pp. 73–84; Zimbabwe from Beth Chitekwe and Diana Mitlin, “The Urban Poor Under Threat and In Struggle: Options for Urban Development in Zimbabwe, 1995–2000,” Environment and Urbanization, October 2001, pp. 85–102; other examples and quote from “Deep Democracy; Transforming Opportunities for the Urban Poor,” Environment and Urbanization Brief, October 2001, p. 2. 58. Lack of political influence by urban poor 224 from Joan M. Nelson, Access to Power: Politics and the Urban Poor in Developing Nations (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1979), pp. 168–207, 318–24. 59. McAuslan quoted in Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, Access to Land by the Urban Poor: Annual Roundtable 2002 (Cambridge, MA: 2002), pp. 6., 31. 60. Issac Mburu, Nairobi, discussion with author, February 2001; Transparency International–Kenya, Corruption in Kenya: Findings of an Urban Bribery Survey (Nairobi: 2001); Michael Lippe, presentation at World Urban Forum, UN-HABITAT, Nairobi, May 2002. 61. Asian Coalition for Housing Rights, op. cit. note 57; “The Power of International Exchanges,” in Antoniou, op. cit. note 37, pp. 192–93. 62. Celina Souza, “Participatory Budgeting in Brazilian Cities: Limits and Possibilities in Building Democratic Institutions,” Environment and Urbanization, April 2001, pp. 159–84. 63. William R. Long, “Brazil Lawmakers Impeach Scandal-Plagued President,” Los Angeles Times, 30 September 1992; William R. Long, “Brazil, Still Reeling From Corruption Scandal, Is Hit Again,” Los Angeles Times, 23 October 1993; Mac Margolis, “Brazilian Authorities Link Lottery to Political Corruption,” Los Angeles Times, 9 April 1994; income inequality from World Bank, World Development Indicators 2000 (Washington, DC: 2000). 64. Souza, op. cit. note 62; Mona Serageldin, CUDS, Harvard University, discussion with Elizabeth Bast, Worldwatch Institute, 24 July 2002. 65. Souza, op. cit. note 62. 66. Priorities from ibid., pp. 167–68; sewers and street paving from Rualdo Menegat, “Participatory Democracy and Sustainable Development: Integrated Urban Environmental Management in Porto Alegre, Brazil,” Environment and Urbanization, October 2002, pp. 1–26. State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTERS 7 AND 8 67. Souza, op. cit. note 62; $8 million from Cabannes, op. cit. note 50. 75. UN-HABITAT, Cities in a Globalizing World, op. cit. note 56. 68. Number of cities from Cabannes, op. cit. note 50; Edésio Fernandes, “New Statute Aims to Make Brazilian Cities More Inclusive,” Habitat Debate, December 2001, p. 19. 76. In 2001, Norway announced a 10-fold increase in its donation to UN-HABITAT; the United Kingdom and Sweden increased their funding by up to 50 percent, while India, Madagascar, and other developing nations pledged more than ever before; UN-HABITAT, press conference, Nairobi, February 2001. 69. United Nations, Agenda 21: The United Nations Programme of Action from Rio (New York: U.N. Department of Public Information, undated), Chapter 28. 70. International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI), Second Local Agenda 21 Survey, Background Paper No. 15, submitted to the Commission on Sustainable Development acting as the preparatory committee for the World Summit on Sustainable Development, 28 January–8 February 2002 (Toronto: 2002); Judy Walker, director of Local Agenda 21 Campaign, ICLEI, Toronto, discussion with author, 29 August 2001; Porto Alegre from Menegat, op. cit. note 66; Luz Stella Velasquez B., “Agenda 21: A Form of Joint Environmental Management in Manizales, Colombia,” Environment and Urbanization, October 1998, pp. 9–36; Samson Wokabi Mwangi, Local Agenda 21 Experiences in Nakuru: Processes, Issues, and Lessons (London: International Institute for Environment and Development, 2001). 71. Survey from ICLEI, op. cit. note 70, and from Walker, op. cit. note 70; direct elections of mayors and greater powers given to cities in Merilee S. Grindle, Audacious Reforms: Institutional Invention and Democracy in Latin America (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2000); Stren, op. cit. note 7. 72. Beall, Crankshaw, and Parnell, Uniting a Divided City, op. cit. note 1, pp. 99–106, 202–05. 73. Jane Jacobs, The Death and Life of Great American Cities (New York: Vintage Books, 1961, 1992), p. 271. 74. Jane Jacobs, interview by Roberto Chavez, World Bank, Washington, DC, 4 February 2002, in World Bank Urban Forum, op. cit. note 21. 77. Struggle to include cities’ role from Jay Moor, Senior Advisor for Strategic Planning, UN-HABITAT, presentation on the World Summit on Sustainable Development at Environmental Systems Research Institute, 22nd Annual Geographic Information Systems Users Conference, San Diego, CA, July 2002; World Summit on Sustainable Development Plan of Implementation, at <www.johannesburgsummit.org/html/documents/ summit_docs/2309_planfinal.htm>, viewed 21 October 2002. Chapter 8. Engaging Religion in the Quest for a Sustainable World 1. National Council of Churches, at <www.web ofcreation.org/ncc/anwr.html>, viewed 17 October 2002. 2. Is and ought stories from Richard Norgaard, “Can Science and Religion Better Save Nature Together?” BioScience, September 2002, p. 842; most violent from Michael Renner, “Ending Violent Conflict,” in Lester R. Brown et al., State of the World 1999 (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1999); greatest environmental degradation is evident in global statistics on species extinctions, deforestation, erosion, air and water pollution, and a host of other maladies, all of which accelerated dramatically in the twentieth century. Box 8–1 based on Mary Evelyn Tucker and John Grim, “Introduction: The Emerging Alliance of World Religions and Ecology,” Daedalus, fall 2001, p. 14. Articles from the special issue of Daedalus on religion and ecology available at <environment.harvard.edu/religion/publications/ journals/index.html>. 3. Religion as central to culture from Clifford 225 State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 8 Geertz, “Religion as a Cultural System,” in Clifford Geertz, Interpretation of Cultures (New York: Basic Books, 1973), pp. 87–125. 4. Societal drivers from Thomas Berry, The Great Work: Our Way to the Future (New York: Bell Tower, 1999); individual drivers from Gerald T. Gardner and Paul C. Stern, Environmental Problems and Human Behavior (Boston: Allyn and Bacon, 1996), pp. 21–32; Nestlé from Robin Broad and John Cavanagh, “The Corporate Accountability Movement: Lessons and Opportunities,” a Study for the World Wildlife Fund’s Project on International Financial Flows and the Environment (Washington, DC: 1998), pp. 12, 30. 5. Mary Clark, Ariadne’s Thread (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1989), pp. 184–85; see also Robin W. Lovin and Frank E. Reynolds, eds., Cosmogony and Ethical Order (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1985). Box 8–2 from Mary Evelyn Tucker and John Grim, “Series Foreword,” in Christopher Key Chapple and Mary Evelyn Tucker, Hinduism and Ecology (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2000), pp. xxv–xxvii, and from Mary Evelyn Tucker, discussion with author, 24 October 2002. 6. Tucker and Grim, op. cit. note 5. 7. Mathieu Deflam, “Ritual, Anti-Structure, and Religion: A Discussion of Victor Turner’s Processual Symbolic Analysis,” Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, vol. 30, no. 1 (1991), pp. 1–21; Robert Bellah, “Civil Religion in America,” in William G. McLoughlin and Robert N. Bellah, eds., Religion in America (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1968). 8. Ritual and resource management, and ritual and emotional connections, from E. N. Anderson, Ecologies of the Heart: Emotion, Belief and the Environment (New York: Oxford University Press, 1996), p. 166; Tsembaga from Roy A. Rappaport, “Ritual Regulation of Environmental Relations Among a New Guinea People,” in Johnnetta B. Cole, Anthropology for the Nineties (New York: The Free Press, 1988), pp. 389–403. 226 9. Stalin quoted in Winston Churchill, The Second World War: The Gathering Storm (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1948), p. 601; Pope and Poland from Carl Bernstein and Marco Politi, His Holiness: John Paul II and the History of Our Time (New York: Penguin Books, 1996), pp. 11–12; Tibet from “UN Rights Chief Pressures China on Detained Boy Panchen Lama,” Agence France Presse, posted on Web site of the Tibetan Government in Exile, at <www.tibet.com/ NewsRoom/panchen1.htm>, viewed 24 October 2002. 10. David Barrett and Todd Johnson, World Christian Trends, AD 30–AD 2200 (Pasadena, CA: William Carey Library, 2001); Table 8–1 from ibid., and from Mary Evelyn Tucker and John Grim, Professors of Religion, Bucknell University, discussion with author, 19 October 2002 (“indigenous” is the category that Barrett and Johnson call “animists and shamanists”). 11. Religious adherence statistics from <www.adherents.com>, viewed 24 October 2002; Pakistan from IUCN–The World Conservation Union, The Pakistan National Conservation Strategy (Karachi, Pakistan: 1991), and from IUCN, Final Report, Mid-Term Review of National Conservation Strategy: Mass Awareness Initiatives (Islamabad, Pakistan: 2000). 12. John A. Grim, ed., Indigenous Traditions and Ecology (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2001). 13. Land area from Alliance of Religions and Conservation (ARC), at <www.religionsandcon servation.org>, viewed 21 October 2002; mosques from IUCN, Final Report, op. cit. note 11; U.S. religious buildings is a Worldwatch estimate based on data in U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, 1999 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey: Consumption and Expenditures Tables (Washington, DC: 1999); schools from ARC, op. cit. this note, and from John Smith, ARC, discussion with Erik Assadourian, Worldwatch Institute, 21 October 2002; Confucian and Vedic health systems from Financial Times, 30 April 2002; Catholic health systems from Catholic Charities USA, State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 8 at <www.catholiccharitiesusa.org/Programs/ Advocacy/letters/Letters2001/sabuse1.htm>, viewed 23 April 2002. 14. Interfaith Center for Corporate Rsponsibility from Meg Voorhes, e-mail to author, 28 May 2002; Tracey Rembert, Shareholder Action Network, discussion with author, 15 May 2002. 15. Ismail Serageldin and Christian Grootaert, “Defining Social Capital: An Integrating View,” in Partha Dagupta and Ismail Serageldin, eds., Social Capital: A Multi-faceted Perspective (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2000). 16. Clark, op. cit. note 5, p. 184. 17. Andrew Greeley, “Coleman Revisited: Religious Structures as a Source of Social Capital,” American Behavioral Scientist, March/April 1997, p. 591. 18. Table 8–2 from the following: World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) from <www.religions andconservation.org>; Global Forum from Preserving and Cherishing the Earth: An Appeal for Joint Commitment in Science and Religion (Moscow: 1990), at <clawww.lmu.edu/~lvan wensveen/courses/thst398/topic7.htm>; Parliament from <www.changemakers.net/journal/ 02february/religionecology.cfm>; World Council of Churches, “Ecumenical Earth,” at <www.wcc-coe .org/wcc/what/jpc/ecology.html>, viewed 18 October 2002; Windsor Summit from “Religions Vow a New Alliance for Conservation,” One Country: The Online Newsletter of the International Bahai Community, April-June 1995, at <www.one countr y.org>; Har vard from <www.hds.har vard.edu/cswr/ecology>, viewed 21 October 2002, and from <environment.harvard.edu/relig ion>, viewed 21 October 2002; symposia from <www.rsesymposia.org>; Millennium Summit from <www.millenniumpeacesummit.com>; Sacred Gifts and Tehran seminar from “Religions Pledge Sacred Gifts for a Living Planet,” press release (London: WWF-UK, 15 November 2000). 19. Conferences from <www.hds.harvard.edu/ cswr/ecology>, viewed 21 October 2002; Forum from <environment.harvard.edu/religion>, viewed 21 October 2002. The Harvard book series and the comprehensive Web site of the Forum on Religion and Ecology are helping to establish a new academic field in religion and ecology that has implications for environmental policy. 20. Lynn White, “The Historical Roots of Our Ecological Crisis,” in Roger S. Gottlieb, This Sacred Earth: Religion, Nature, Environment (New York: Routledge, 1996), pp. 184–93; critique of White from J. Baird Callicott, “Genesis and John Muir,” ReVision, winter 1990, pp. 31–46. 21. Carl Pope, “Remarks of Carl Pope, Sierra Club Executive Director, Symposium on Religion, Science, and the Environment Under the Auspices of His All Holiness Bartholomew I, Ecumenical Patriarch, Santa Barbara, California, November 6–8, 1997,” Ecozoic, at <www.Eco zoic.com/eco/CarlPope.asp>, viewed 9 October 2002; St. Francis from White, op. cit. note 20, pp. 192–93. 22. Pope, op. cit. note 21. 23. Cassandra Carmichael, Director of FaithBased Outreach, Center for a New American Dream, Takoma Park, MD, discussion with author, 9 October 2002, and e-mail to author, 24 October 2002. 24. Richard Rohr, “We Need Transformation, Not False Transcendence,” National Catholic Reporter, 15 February 2002. 25. Ibid. 26. Women as most involved from John Grim, Professor of Religion, Bucknell University, discussion with author, 19 October 2002. 27. Religion Counts, Religion and Public Policy at the UN (Washington, DC: April 2002). 28. Anne Primavesi, Sacred Gaia (London: Routledge, 2000). 29. Bruce Barcot, “For God So Loved the World,” Outside, March 2001. 227 State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 8 30. Ritual from Anderson, op. cit. note 8, p. 166. Box 8–3 from Susan M. Darlington, “Practical Spirituality and Community Forests: Monks, Ritual, and Radical Conservatism in Thailand,” in Anna L. Tsing and Paul Greenough, eds., Imagination and Distress in Southern Environmental Projects (Chapel Hill, NC: Duke University Press, forthcoming); values from Mary Evelyn Tucker and John Grim, “Religions of the World and Ecology: Discovering the Common Ground,” Forum for Religion and Ecology, at <environment.har vard.edu/religion/religion/index.html>, viewed 23 October 2002. 31. The Dalai Lama, “Five Point Peace Plan for Tibet,” at <www.tibet.net/eng/diir/enviro/hhdl/ fivepoint/index.html>, viewed 18 October 2002; Pope John Paul II, “The Ecological Crisis: A Common Responsibility,” Message for World Day of Peace, January 1, 1990, at <www.ewtn.com/ library/PAPALDOC/JP900101.HTM>; “Common Declaration by Pope John Paul II and Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I,” at <www.rsesymposia.org/symposium_iv/Common% 20Declaration.pdf>. 32. Religion, Science and the Environment (RSE), at <www.rsesymposia.org>. 33. Symposia from Maria Becket, RSE symposium coordinator, discussion with author, 25 September 2002; other details from RSE, op. cit. note 32. 34. Black Sea from Laurance David Mee, “The Black Sea Today,” at <www.rsesymposia.org/sym posium_ii/overview_blacksea.htm>; Halki from John Chryssavgis, “Conference Report: A Symposium on the Danube: Religion and Science in Dialogue about the Environment,” Worldviews, vol. 4 (2000), p. 82; World Bank and U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP) from John Bennett, independent consultant, discussion with author, 24 October 2002. 35. Philip Weller, former program director, WWF, discussion with author, 20 September 2002; Patriarch’s involvement from Jasmina Bachmann, International Convention for the Protection of the Danube River, discussion with author, 23 Sep- 228 tember 2002. 36. Kelly D. Alley, On the Banks of the Ganga: When Wastewater Meets a Sacred River (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2002); Alexander Stille, “The Ganges’ Next Life,” The New Yorker, June 1999, pp. 58–67. 37. Kelly D. Alley, “Idioms of Degeneracy: Assessing Ganga’s Purity and Pollution,” in Lance E. Nelson, ed., Purifying the Earthly Body of God: Religion and Ecology in Hindu India (Albany, NY: State University of New York Press, 1998), pp. 297–330. 38. Fran Peavey, president, Friends of the Ganges (San Francisco), discussion with author, 4 September 2002; Dr. V. B. Mishra, discussion with author, 5 September 2002. 39. Stille, op. cit. note 36; Mishra, op. cit. note 38. 40. Mishra, op cit note 38; Alley, op. cit. note 37; Stille, op. cit. note 36. 41. Cleanness and purity from Alley, op. cit. note 37, p. 305; maintains respect from ibid., p. 320; fusion from ibid., p. 317. 42. Table 8–3 from Center for a New American Dream, “Quotes and Teachings of World Religions on Care of the Earth and Responsible Consumption,” at <www.newdream.org/faith>, viewed 16 October 2002, except for Buddhadasa Bhikkhu, from Donald K. Swearer, “Buddhism and Ecology: Challenge and Promise,” Forum on Religion and Ecology, at <environment.harvard.edu/religion/ religion/buddhism/index.html>, viewed 16 October 2002. 43. “Rowan Williams Confirmed as New Archbishop of Canterbury,” The Guardian, 23 July 2002; Pope from “Pope John Paul II Addresses Overconsumption,” Green Cross, summer 1996. 44. Sar vodaya from <www.sar vodaya.org>, viewed 28 October 2002; Christopher Candland, “Faith as Social Capital: Religion and Community Development in Southern Asia,” Policy Sciences, State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 8 vol. 33 (2000), pp. 355–74. <www.thearda.com>, viewed 22 October 2002. 45. Buddhism roots from A. T. Ariyaratne, Buddhist Economics in Practice in the Sarvodaya Shramadana Movement of Sri Lanka (Salisbury, UK: Sarvodaya Support Group, 1999), p. 7; consumption as a tool from Ariyaratne, quoted in Candland, op. cit. note 44, p. 355, and from Joanna Macy, Dharma and Development: Religion as Resource in the Sarvodaya Self-Help Movement (West Hartford, CT: Kumarian Press, 1991), p. 47. 55. Equal Exchange, at <www.equalexchange .com>, viewed 23 October 2002. 46. Development vision from Macy, op. cit. note 45, p. 46; 10 needs from D. J. Mitchell, “Sarvodaya: An Introduction to the Sarvodaya Shramadana Movement in Sri Lanka,” booklet of the Sarvodaya Movement (Moratuwa, Sri Lanka: undated), p. 3. 47. Macy, op. cit. note 45, pp. 27, 46. 48. Ariyaratne, op. cit. note 45, pp. 9, 37. 49. Macy, op. cit. note 45, pp. 51–63. 50. Ibid., p. 53. 51. Nestlé from Broad and Cavanagh, op. cit. note 4, pp. 12, 30; lettuce boycotts from Susan Ferris and Ricardo Sandoval, The Fight in the Fields: Cesar Chavez and the Farmworkers’ Movement (New York: Harcourt Brace, 1997). 52. Regeneration Project from <www.theregen erationproject.org> and from Sally Bingham, e-mail to Erik Assadourian, Worldwatch Institute, 21 October 2002. 53. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), “Energy Star for Congregations,” at <www.epa .gov/smallbiz/congregations.html>, viewed 23 July 2002; 5 percent from U.S. Department of Energy, op. cit. note 13; EPA calculation based on a survey of commercial buildings carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy. 54. Share of Americans at church from National Opinion Research Center, “General Social Survey 2000,” at The American Religion Data Archive, 56. Participating congregations from Equal Exchange, Building Alternatives Amid Crisis: Annual Report 2001 (Canton, MA: 2001); 1 percent of houses of worship is a Worldwatch calculation based on data from Equal Exchange, op. cit. this note, and from U.S. Department of Energy, op. cit. note 13; percentage of sales from Equal Exchange, op. cit. this note. 57. Quote from Timothy Bernard, cited in “The Interfaith Coffee Program,” Equal Exchange, at <www.equalexchange.com/interfaith/pcusapro ject.html>, viewed 18 July 2002. 58. Tim Bernard, “Brewing Faith and Coffee,” Lutheran World Relief, at <www.lwr.org/coffee/ coffee/newcoffee.html>, viewed 23 October 2002; coffee drinking from U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Food Consumption (Per Capita) Data System: Beverages, at <www.ers.usda.gov/data/foodconsumption/ datasystem.asp>, viewed 28 October 2002. 59. Social investment from Social Investment Forum, 2001 Report on Socially Responsible Investing Trends in the United States (Washington, DC: November 2001); share of Americans at church from National Opinion Research Center, op. cit. note 54. 60. Interfaith Partnership for the Environment and UNEP, “Earth and Faith: A Book of Reflection for Action” (New York: UNEP, 2001); World Faiths Development Dialogue from “Second Summit Between World Bank and World Religions Focuses on Projects,” One Country: The Online Newsletter of the International Bahá’í Community, at <www.onecountry.org/e113/e11310as.htm>, viewed 25 October 2002; World Council of Churches, “Ecumenical Earth,” at <www.wcc-coe .org/wcc/what/jpc/ecology.html>, viewed 18 October 2002. 61. Tucker and Grim, op. cit. note 2, pp. 16–17. 229 State of the World 2003 NOTES, CHAPTER 8 62. Martin Wroe, “An Irresistable Force,” Sojourners, May-June 2000. 63. Infection rate from Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, AIDS Epidemic Update—December 2001 (Geneva: 2001); Muslim communities and Catholic bishop from Thoraya Obaid, Executive Director, United Nations Population Fund, “Building Bridges for Human Development: The Role of Culture and Religion in Promoting Universal Principles of The Programme of Action on Population and Development,” address at Georgetown University, 25 April 2002. 64. Mary Evelyn Tucker, Worldly Wonder: Religions Enter Their Ecological Phase (Chicago: Open Court Press, forthcoming). 65. Obaid, op. cit. note 63. 66. Gould quoted in David Orr, “For the Love of Life,” Conservation Biology, December 1992, p. 486. 67. Ibid., pp. 486–87. 68. John Muir quoted in Trebbe Johnson, “The Second Creation,” Sierra Magazine, December 1998. 69. Thomas Berry, “Ethics and Ecology,” a paper delivered to the Harvard Center on Environmental Values, 9 April 1996; see also Brian Swimme and Thomas Berry, The Universe Story (New York: Harper Collins, 1992), and Berry, op. cit. note 4. 230