An Economic Analysis - August 2015 PDF

Transcription

Central to Eveleigh Urban
Transformation and
Transport Program
An Economic Analysis
Final report
UrbanGrowthNSW
August 2015
20140500-Central to Eveleigh Rail Corridor-Final Report-150818
This report has been prepared for UrbanGrowthNSW. SGS Economics
and Planning has taken all due care in the preparation of this report.
However, SGS and its associated consultants are not liable to any
person or entity for any damage or loss that has occurred, or may
occur, in relation to that person or entity taking or not taking action in
respect of any representation, statement, opinion or advice referred to
herein.
SGS Economics and Planning Pty Ltd
ACN 007 437 729
www.sgsep.com.au
Offices in Canberra, Hobart, Melbourne and Sydney
20140500-Central to Eveleigh Rail Corridor-Final Report-150818
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Context
Trends
Central to Eveleigh Study Area
Delivery horizons
Economic development actions
Potential floorspace and jobs
Agglomeration benefits
1
1
1
2
3
4
6
7
2
2.1
2.2
2.3
INTRODUCTION
Purpose
Structure of report
The Central to Eveleigh Study Area
8
8
8
9
3
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS IN CENTRAL SYDNEY
Introduction
City of Sydney employment landscape
Industry trends
Overall employment growth
CBD floorspace trends
Floorspace capacity and demand
Competitive centres
Implications for the Study Area
10
10
10
14
19
19
21
22
25
4
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
CENTRAL TO EVELEIGH STUDY AREA
Introduction
Drivers and influences
Study Area precincts
Economic Assets
Development horizons
Development scenarios
26
26
27
33
35
36
36
5
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
ULTIMO-CENTRAL PRECINCT
Precinct overview
Employment and demographic profile
Opportunities and challenges Opportunities
Future demand
Development vision
37
37
37
38
39
39
40
Central to Eveleigh Urban Transformation and Transport Program
6
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
CHIPPENDALE-SURRY HILLS PRECINCT
Precinct overview
Opportunities and challenges
Future demand
Development vision
42
42
42
43
44
44
44
7
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.6
REDFERN-DARLINGTON PRECINCT
Precinct overview
Future demand
`Development vision
47
47
47
48
49
49
50
8
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5
8.6
WATERLOO PRECINCT
Precinct overview
Future demand
Development vision
54
54
54
55
56
56
56
9
9.1
9.2
9.3
9.4
9.5
9.6
9.7
9.8
STUDY AREA DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS
Scenario development
Scenario One
Scenario Two
Scenario Three
Floorspace and job comparisons
Agglomeration comparisons
Comparison to UrbanGrowth Scenarios
58
58
59
59
60
61
62
63
64
10 SUMMARY
10.1 Summary of key issues
10.2 Summary of actions and development scenarios
66
66
67
APPENDIX 1: CREATIVE INDUSTRY DEFINITION
68
APPENDIX 2: PRECINCT DEVELOPMENT TABLE
69
APPENDIX 3: AGGLOMERATION MODELLING
72
APPENDIX 4: FLOORSPACE TO JOBS RATIO METHODOLOGY
77
Central to Eveleigh Urban Transformation and Transport Program
1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1
Context
The economic geography of Metropolitan Sydney is evolving. While the CBD continues to serve the
professional and service sector industries such as finance, insurance and law, Sydney’s poly-centric
structure creates multiple opportunities for industries seeking urban settings.
SGS Economics and Planning has been engaged by UrbanGrowth NSW to prepare a report identifying
economic development directions for the Central to Eveleigh Study Area. The aims and objectives of the
study are:

An understanding of key industries and demand for economic growth within the Study Area, with a
focus on the Corridor;

Strategies to support economic growth in the Central to Eveleigh corridor and Study Area for the
next 50 years, to support the growth of the City of Sydney.
In response to these aims and objectives, the report assesses the key industries operating in the City of
Sydney LGA and what role they may play in the development of the Study Area. It outlines three possible
development scenarios for the Study Area based on analysis of broad trends, industry growth and
existing capacity, as well as a series of strategies and actions that can help to shape the development of
the Study Area over the next fifty years.
The CBD is still the primary employment centre in Sydney, however many organisations are exploring
alternative locations for all or part of their business. Increasing rents, proximity to workforce and
changing work patterns has altered the employment landscape. One of these changes is the reduction
floorspace per person as a means of increasing efficiency. Coupled with the rise of Parramatta as
Sydney’s second CBD and the continued development of the North Shore’s commercial cores the growth
of industries seeking premium office floorspace in Sydney is being accommodated throughout the city.
The Central to Eveleigh Study Area extends from the southern tip of Sydney’s CBD through to the
terraced inner-west suburb of Erskineville. The Study Area has been identified as a centre for future
commercial development. This report considers what development opportunities exist within the Study
Area that arise due to its location, urban structure and surrounding characteristics. It then presents
potential development scenarios that accommodate these opportunities.
1.2
Trends
Several major industry trends have been observed within the Study Area, the City of Sydney and more
broadly. These include:
-
Continued growth in demand for office-locating professional services sector organisations (24%
growth in the Study Area between 2006 and 2012)
-
Significant increase for creative industry floorspace (59% growth in the Study Area between
2006 and 2012)
-
A commensurate decline in manufacturing throughout the LGA (-9% between 2006 and 2012).
Central to Eveleigh Urban Transformation and Transport Program 1
-
Expansion of the University of Sydney and UTS in both campus size and student numbers
-
Broad trend towards greater partnering between hospitals, univeristies and the private sector
in establishment of research facilities
-
All identified industries except manufacturing are forecast continued growth in number of
jobs.
Due to the poly-centric nature of Greater Sydney, there is competition for floorspace, particularly
towards the office market, from other centres throughout the city. These include Parramatta, North
Sydney, Chatswood, Macquarie Park, Sydney Olympic Park, St Leonards and Norwest. The Central to
Eveleigh Study Area must position itself to build on emerging trends and current assets to distinguish
itself from these other centres and the future compeition form Green Square.
1.3
Central to Eveleigh Study Area
The Study Area is a broad cluster of inner-city suburbs surrounding the Central to Eveleigh railway
corridor. It has good transport accessibility to its centre and north, decreasing towards its southern and
eastern boundaries. It is close to the CBD and major universities and has diverse urban form. These
diverse characteristics uniquely position the Study Area in relation to Sydney’s other employment
centres and will attract a mix of industries seeking non-traditional office floorspace whilst remaining
close to the CBD.
The “Plan For Growing Sydney” suggests that the Central to Eveleigh Corridor could accommodate a
southward expansion of the CBD. However, the separation of much of the Study Area from the CBD
caused by the railway corridor limits CBD-focused expansion opportunities to the northern part of the
Study Area. The Study Area’s growth should instead draw upon the industries that have already
established around it and who are attracted to its CBD-fringe location and varied urban form.
The Study Area is well placed to service a number of industries including professional services, the
creative industries and innovation sector, education and urban manufacturing. These industries each
have their own land use requirements and the Study Area is well placed to accommodate a mix of these.
Due to its size, the Study Area cannot be defined as a single homogenous precinct. Rather, it is made up
of four distinctive economic precincts, each with a distinct urban character, opportunities and
development potential. These are identified in Figure 1.
The Ultimo-Central Precinct has strong links to the CBD and provides the potential to extend the CBD
towards Central Station. This offers the possibility of premium office floorspace development within the
station precinct as well as infill opportunities north of Central Station. The precinct would benefit from
stronger integration with the CBD as it is heavily separated from precincts to the south.
The Chippendale-Surry Hills Precinct is defined by the similarity of its urban form and attraction to a
range of creative industries. It is separated east-west by the Central railyards, main west rail line and
Cleveland Street forms a boundary to the south. Some major development has taken place in the
precinct (namely the Carlton-United Brewery site in Broadway) however the precinct lacks many other
major development opportunities due to its fine-grained street pattern and fragmented lots. It has
established itself as a major hub for Sydney’s creative industries, with demand continuing to grow given
the proximity to CBD and good transport accessibility.
The Redfern-Darlington Precinct, is growing as a location for creative industries, with organisations
attracted to its proximity to the more established Chippendale-Surry Hills Precinct. It is more varied in its
character, with residential development scattered throughout. It too is split by the railyards and the main
west rail line, although with Redfern Station at its centre, it accommodates a significant amount of
footfall due to the station’s proximity to the University of Sydney. The precinct also contains the
Australian Technology Park (ATP) adjacent to the railyards and a number of rail-related heritage assets.
The precinct is likely to benefit from a proposed future station on the Sydney Metro development, with a
station proposed either at the University of Sydney or in Waterloo.
The Waterloo Precinct is predominantly residential and is dominated by a number of public housing
estates. It is close to the future Green Square town centre site and forms a residential buffer between
Green Square, the Alexandria employment lands and the employment areas of the northern precincts.
FI G URE 1. PRE CIN C T DI AG RA M
1.4
Delivery horizons
Development within the Study Area will be incremental. In order to support the growth of the creative
and knowledge industries in the Chippendale-Surry Hills and Redfern-Darlington Precincts, development
should be in line with the needs of these broad industries. Unlike CBD-locating professional services, the
creative and knowledge sectors tend to be attracted to areas that have lower rents, varied urban
character and greater commercial floorspace variety. This requires a larger degree of infill development
in the initial stages.
This report considers this variety of development through three ‘Horizons’, which form the basis for the
economic development actions identified in the report: Consolidate, Enhance and Transform. Each of
these assumes different types of development being delivered over the long-term transformation
process.
1.5
A number of economic development actions have been identified for each of the four precincts within
the Study Area. These actions are aligned to the Three Horizons framework, which identifies their likely
delivery timeframe. These actions build on the major industry trends witnessed within the Study Area,
City of Sydney and more broadly as well as leveraging each precinct’s unique infrastructure assets and
characteristics.
Ultimo-Central Precinct
First Horizon: Lock in benefits of recent renewal and investment
1. Upgrade connectivity throughout the precinct
2. Upgrade amenity throughout the precinct
3. Encourage creative uses throughout government assets at Central Station and wider precinct
Second Horizon: Facilitate new office development
4. Audit existing sites suitable for large floor plate office or re-investment.
5. ‘‘Workshop’ with key urban professionals and owners of suitable sites to identify barriers to
redevelopment.
6. Address barriers to growth to facilitate commercial development opportunities on these sites.
7. Prepare incentive package that addresses barriers to development and intensification.
8. Prepare prospectus to market the precinct and the opportunities.
Third horizon: Provide a new commercial and activity hub at Central Station
9. Provide new development opportunities by providing a platform for mixed-use development
over the railyards
Chippendale-Surry Hills Precinct
First Horizon: Consolidate the existing strengths of the precinct
1. Review planning and licensing regulations with a view to ‘freeing-up’ uses and activities within
existing building footprints as appropriate.
2. Investigate ways of ensuring a commercial or business component in mixed use redevelopments
and in existing residential areas.
3. Retain the character that defines the Chippendale-Surry Hills precinct.
Second horizon: Add appropriate and complementary cultural facilities
4. Seek expressions of interest for creative uses (design shops, galleries, bars) in public buildings
and spaces
Third horizon: Re-connect Chippendale and Surry Hills
5. Review the Regent Street – Cleveland Street junction
6. Establish commercial floorspace on the northern edge of Cleveland Street as part of a mixed
use development
7. Improve/enhance Devonshire Street tunnel or provide additional significant east-west
concourse as part of the future development of Central linked to interventions of Sydney Metro
8. Redevelop social housing estate on Devonshire Street
Redfern-Darlington Precinct
First Horizon: Expand the opportunities for creative business activity
1. Consider a range of planning and economic levers to strengthen existing and growing clusters
2. Target a creative use for the NSW Railway building on Wilson Street through innovative leasing
arrangements.
3. Establish a governance framework across the precinct to support business development, for
example a Business Improvement District (BID) or similar mechanism.
4. Engage in discussions with possible creative industries anchor tenants.
5. Prepare prospectus to market the precinct and potential development sites.
6. Explore the provision of additional Key Worker accommodation to the west of Carriageworks as
part of a mixed-tenure residential development.
Second Horizon: Develop Redfern Station as the connectivity hub for the precinct
7. Provide a southern bridge connecting the ATP with Darlington, including a new entry to Redfern
Station
8. Redevelop Redfern Station with a mixed-use development above the platforms
9. Explore opportunity within the ATP or potential new floorspace around Redfern Station for
research facilities in partnership with RPA
Third Horizon: Create a public transport, cycling and pedestrian connected network of activities from
Sydney University to Waterloo
10. The north-south rail corridors (through Redfern and Waterloo) should be crossed by a highly
defined ‘liveable green network’ that prioritises pedestrian and cycle connections from
Waterloo, through Redfern to Darlington and beyond to the University and Victoria Park
11. Plan for the future restoration of a two way system using Botany Road and Gibbons Street with
the objective of returning Botany Road to a functioning main street for the wider precinct
including ATP
12. Plan for a further southern connection across the rail land
Waterloo Precinct
First Horizon: Identify opportunities for potential commercial expansion
1. Review zoning and planning controls to allow for more compatible employment uses in
residential areas
2. Establish online marketplace to advertise and sub-let vacant ground floor floorspace along
Botany Road
3. Identify potential development sites along Botany Road
Second Horizon: Expand opportunities for local business development
4. Focus retail and business development along Botany Road and in any new station precinct.
5. Establish a training programme to assist local employment during construction and upon
completion of major development projects in the Study Area.
Third Horizon: Build on delivery of Sydney Metro station/transport improvements at Waterloo
6. Include a new station/transport improvements at Waterloo to facilitate mixed use renewal of
the Waterloo housing estate.
7. Focus cluster of retail and employment opportunities around proposed Waterloo station
1.6
Potential floorspace and jobs
The horizons are used to build three scenarios, each of which present a different development story for
the Study Area. Scenario One uses the precinct’s Horizons One economic development actions as a basis
for proposing a quantum of commercial development floorspace. Scenario Two uses Horizons One and
Two and so on. Development within each horizon differs. Horizon One assumes a high degree of small
scale infill development in order to lay the foundations for establishing the Study Area as a destination
for creative industries. Horizons Two and Three each assume an increasing amount of strategic, longterm development taking place, with Horizon Three assuming a high degree of ‘step change’
development taking place over the coming decades. Figure 2 illustrates the development scenario
structure and Table 1 outlines the different quantum of additional floorspace each Scenario could
provide.
FI G URE 2. DE VE LO PME N T S CE N AR I O STR U C T U RE
Scenario One
Scenario Two
Scenario Three
Horizon One:
Consolidate
Horizon Two:
Enhance
10 yrs
Horizon Three:
Transform
20 yrs
30 yrs
TA BLE 1. POTE N TI AL N E T COM ME R CIA L FLOO RS PACE BY P RE C IN C T
Precinct
Ultimo-Central
Chippendale-Surry Hills
Redfern-Darlington
Waterloo
Total
Scenario 1
Net new floorspace (sqm)
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
53,342
77,368
61,652
78,000
56,990
184,408
61,652
228,000
100,382
198,808
61,652
192,361
381,049
588,841
Table 2 outlines the different amounts of additional floorspace each Scenario could provide. These job
numbers are based on a more condensed floorspace to jobs ratio than is currently experienced within
the Study Area and in the City of Sydney more broadly. This range is from 20 to 25sqm of floorspace per
job.
TA BLE 2. POTE N TI AL N E T N E W JO B S BY PRE CI N C T
Precinct
Ultimo-Central
Redfern-Darlington
Waterloo
Total
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
5,689
5,784
6,893
3,083
9,589
5,966
11,165
3,083
17,089
8,136
11,885
3,083
21,448
29,802
40,192
1.7
Locating in an area which has a higher density of economic activity (as measured by employment) allows
firms to achieve economies of scale through access to an extensive customer base. Within this large
customer base, the opportunity for economies of scope is presented to firms. That is, with increased
numbers of clients, firms will be able to gain efficiencies by specialising in a particular field.
This process is termed ‘Agglomeration’. Agglomeration provides opportunities for firms to access a deep
and diverse pool of skilled labour. With so many firms located together there will be a high level of
technological / knowledge transfer between firms, which will help bolster innovation. This innovation is
vital for firms to survive in a very competitive market place. Much of the knowledge transfer is provided
by skilled labour moving between firms.
2
INTRODUCTION
2.1
Purpose
As Sydney continues to grow, so does demand for the CBD and its surrounds to provide additional jobs.
As a consequence, areas such as the Central to Eveleigh Study Area are becoming increasingly important
as future locations for economic activity. SGS Economics and Planning has been engaged by
UrbanGrowthNSW to prepare a report identifying economic development directions for the Central to
Eveleigh Study Area. The aims and objectives of the study are:

An understanding of key industries and demand for economic growth within the Study Area, with a
focus on the Corridor;

Strategies to support economic growth in the Central to Eveleigh corridor and Study Area for the
next 50 years, to support the growth of the City of Sydney.
In response to these aims and objectives, the report assesses the key industries operating in the City of
Sydney LGA and what role they may play in the development of the Study Area. It outlines three possible
development scenarios for the Study Area based on analysis of broad trends, industry growth and
existing capacity, as well as a series of strategies and actions that can help to shape the development of
the Study Area over the next fifty years.
2.2
Structure of report
The report is structured as follows:
Chapter 3
Overview of the employment market in Central Sydney, capacity estimates,
emerging trends in floorspace demand and an overview of comparable
employment centres in Sydney.
Chapter 4
An overview of the Central to Eveleigh Study Area’s characteristics and
identification of four broad precincts across the Study Area.
Chapters 5-8
A study of the four precincts, including demographic and employment analysis,
precinct overview, opportunities and challenges and economic development
strategies for each
Chapter 9
A review of development scenarios and potential floorspace and job forecasts
Chapter 10
A summary of the issues facing the Study Area and economic development
actions outlined in this report.
2.3
The Central to Eveleigh Study Area
The Central to Eveleigh Study Area has been identified by UrbanGrowth NSW and occupies a large area
of the City of Sydney. It extends south from the CBD and includes the areas of Ultimo, Chippendale,
Surry Hills, Redfern, Darlington, Waterloo and Eveleigh. The Study Area is defined by its proximity to the
rail lines and associated rail land and infrastructure and includes Central Station, Redfern Station,
Carriageworks and the Australian Technology Park (ATP). It includes major residential assets such as the
social housing stock in Redfern-Waterloo and Surry Hills. This land is heavily influenced by its current and
former industrial nature and retains strong links to the railway industry today.
In order to align the Study Area to the Bureau of Transport Statistics’ travel zone statistical boundaries,
SGS has slightly altered the boundary. This better assists with the analysis of employment forecasts and
employment potential undertaken in this report.
FI G URE 3 . E X TE N T OF S G S’ S CE N T RA L TO E VE LE I G H ST U DY ARE A AG AIN ST
UR BAN G ROW TH’ S O RI G I N AL BO UN DA RY
The amended Study Area identified by SGS contains a diverse range of land uses in addition to its railway
and industrial spine. In 2011, it was home to an estimated 47,000 residents and close to 70,000 jobs.
Bureau of Transport (BTS) forecasts expect this to increase to 52,400 residents and 72,600 jobs by 2016
(BTS, 2014). For consistency, this amended boundary is used throughout this report.
3 EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
IN CENTRAL SYDNEY
3.1
Introduction
This chapter highlights key employment trends emerging in Central Sydney. It identifies where
employment growth is happening, emerging industry trends and changing work practice, all of which
influence future capacity and prospects in the CBD, other commercial centres and the Central to Eveleigh
Study Area.
Metropolitan Sydney is a significant contributor to Australia’s economy, hosting almost 2.5 million jobs
and generating approximately a quarter of Australia’s total GDP. Much of this economic activity is
concentrated in the Central Sydney sub-region (as defined by the NSW Department of Planning and
Environment), with 36 percent of the metropolitan area’s jobs in 2012-13 and 54 percent of total job
growth from 2007-8 to 2012-13 (Table 3).
TA BLE 3.
SU B - REG ION S E MP LOY M E NT G ROW TH, 2 00 7 - 8 TO 2 01 2 - 13
Region
2007-08
2012-13
Annual Growth
Rate
Contribution to
Growth
Central
778,990
855,872
1.9%
54%
South
152,592
150,408
-0.3%
-2%
North
438,163
468,908
1.4%
22%
West Central & North West
378,116
396,006
0.9%
13%
West
118,313
122,568
0.7%
3%
South West
280,279
290,036
0.7%
7%
Central Coast
Sydney
113,683
119,105
0.9%
4%
2,260,136
2,402,904
1.2%
100%
Source: SGS Economics and Planning
3.2
City of Sydney employment landscape
A diverse range of industries are located throughout the City of Sydney. The Sydney CBD is an obvious
attractor for a range of knowledge sector and other office-locating jobs (such as finance and public
administration). However, throughout the LGA, other industries cluster around key infrastructure such as
hospitals and universities. Manufacturing, once a dominant industry in the inner city, has been pushed
away from the core. Consolidated employment lands remain, and are actively protected from
encroaching development, around Alexandria and along the Central to Eveleigh Corridor. Figure 4
illustrates where job numbers are clustered. Figure 5 illustrates where job densities are highest as a
proportion of all jobs in the area. Areas of intense colour indicate that the industry makes up a higher
proportion of jobs than other areas.
FI G URE 4. CI T Y OF SY DN E Y LG A I N D U STRY LO CATI ON OF J O B S ( 2 01 2)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
1.
Professional services sector
2.
Creative industries sector
3.
Health sector
4.
Education sector
5.
Manufacturing sector
FI G URE 5. CI T Y OF SY DN E Y LG A I N D U STRY PROP O RTIO N O F JO B S ( 2 01 2)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
1.
Professional services sector
2.
Creative industries sector
3.
Health sector
4.
Education sector
5.
Manufacturing sector
There is no surprise that there is a clear concentration of office-based jobs in the CBD. The dominance of
these jobs is illustrated in both figures, with both office-based job numbers and the proportion of jobs
they make up centred strongly on the CBD.
Figure 4 suggests that Creative Industries jobs have a strong presence throughout the LGA. Although as a
proportion of jobs, they tend to concentrate around Surry Hills, Chippendale, Ultimo-Pyrmont, Millers
Point and the Carriageworks (Figure 5).
Health Jobs are scattered throughout the LGA but strong clusters are found at RPA and St Vincent’s
Hospitals. There are jobs throughout the CBD, but as with most other industries, these are ‘drowned out’
but office-locating jobs.
Education is clustered strongly around the University of Sydney and UTS. Some of peripheral travel zones
identified in Figure 5 are due to schools or other educational facilities being located there with few other
jobs around. This is the case with Sydney Boys and Girls High Schools and the Royal Botanic Gardens.
Manufacturing gradually increases towards the south of the CBD and is concentrated around Alexandria
and along the traditional manufacturing corridors such as the Central to Eveleigh Corridor. There is some
harbourside concentration, in particular around Garden Island, however this is driven by Navy uses.
Figure 6 Consolidates these clusters to provide an illustration of industry concentrations throughout the
LGA.
FI G URE 6. CON S OL IDATE D C I T Y O F SYDN E Y IN D U S TRY LO CATI ON CLU STE RS ( 20 12 )
3.3
Industry trends
Professional services
In 2011, professional services sector jobs (consisting of industries such as professional services,
insurance and financial sectors) made up 82 percent of office-locating jobs within the City of Sydney. The
CBD has been the traditional location for many professional services organisations, in particular those
with a national or international customer base. Proximity to clients and business customers is a key
factor for these organisations. Centralised locations can also portray a corporation’s status, with prime
real estate locations important to many organisations. Although centres such as Parramatta and North
Sydney are growing as centres for the premium office market, a central location is still in demand.
TA BLE 4.
OF FI CE - BA SE D J O BS A S A P RO P O RTI ON OF TOTA L J O BS ( 20 06 & 2 0 12 )
2006
2012
Corridor
27%
35%
Study Area
30%
28%
City of Sydney
48%
47%
TA BLE 5.
OF FI CE - BA SE D J O BS IN LGA , HI STO RI C AND FO R E CA ST ( 20 06 - 20 2 1)
Historic
2006
2,000
2012
3,563
2016
6,261
2021
11,001
Growth rate
(2006-2012)
78%
15,253
18,957
21,582
24,570
24%
169,793
204,686
240,972
283,692
21%
Corridor
Study Area
City of Sydney
Forecast
Although concentrated in the CBD, demand for professional service industry jobs (and therefore
floorspace) is distributed throughout the LGA, albeit unevenly. Across the City of Sydney, the
professional services have grown by 21% between 2006 and 2012. Although the number of jobs have
grown, as Table 4 illustrates, there has been a slight decline of these jobs as a proportion of all jobs in
the LGA. This is due to the growth of other industries in the LGA over that time. The emergence of the
ATP accounts for the sharp increase in office-locating jobs within the Corridor over the six year period.
Creative industries
‘Creative industries’ is a collective term used to define industries where creativity is used to create value
for their consumers, or where the product or service created has a creative function or outlet. Creative
industries operate in a diverse range of sectors including music and performing arts, design and visual
arts, television, radio and film, marketing, finance and distribution, social media, software development
and interactive content, animation and print, writing, publishing.
Creative industries locate in a range of building types, depending on their function. Some require large
open formats for industries such as dance and visual arts. A high proportion, however, locate in office
buildings similar to professional services. Their work structures are similar to professional services,
however their output is what defines them as creative. These include industries such as software
publishing, print or architectural services. Appendix 1 lists the professions this report considers as
‘Creative Industries’ by their four-digit ANZSIC code.
TA BLE 6.
CRE AT IVE IN D U STRI ES J OB S AS A P ROP ORT ION OF TOTA L JO BS
(2 00 6 & 2 01 2)
Corridor
Study Area
City of Sydney
TA BLE 7.
2006
2012
4%
17%
15%
19%
9%
11%
CRE AT IVE IN D U STRI ES J OB S IN LGA , HI STO RI C A ND FO RE CA ST ( 20 06 - 20 2 1)
Historic
Forecast
Corridor
2006
332
2012
1,698
2016
8,559
2021
43,158
Growth rate
(2006-2012)
411%
Study Area
7,809
12,417
18,085
26,342
59%
32,501
46,704
65,544
91,982
44%
City of Sydney
In 2006, creative industries jobs made up 9% of total jobs in the City of Sydney, totalling 32,500 jobs. By
2012, this had grown by 44% to 46,700 and had also grown as a proportion of all jobs in the LGA to 11%.
Within the Study Area and, more emphatically, within the Central to Eveleigh Corridor, these jobs have
grown at a higher rate than the LGA. Across the LGA, this is likely to be due to the growth of PyrmontUltimo and Surry Hills as major clusters of creative industries jobs. These growth patterns are forecast to
continue out to 2021.
Education
Education is Australia’s fourth largest export industry and largest non-resources export with a $15 billion
revenue in 2012. Over the past decade, there has been an annual average growth of 8 percent in the
number of international students coming to Australia. A relatively strong Australian dollar, plus trends in
other international tertiary education market places (for example Japan) saw a 9 percent reduction
between 2010 and 2011 ACPET, Australian Council for private education and training). Notwithstanding
this fluctuation, the International Education Advisory Council estimates Australia will be hosting 520,000
international students by 2020, a 30 per cent increase on today’s numbers. The Council estimates this
will contribute $19.1 billion to the local economy, which will bring direct benefits to retailers,
accommodation providers and community enterprises (International Education Advisory Council 2013).
TA BLE 8.
E DU CAT ION J OB S AS A P RO PO RTI ON OF TOTA L J OB S (2 00 6 & 2 01 2)
Corridor
Study Area
City of Sydney
2006
2012
6%
3%
10%
10%
4%
4%
TA BLE 9.
E DU CAT ION J OB S IN LGA , HI STO RI C A ND FO RE C A ST (2 0 06 - 20 21 )
Historic
Forecast
Corridor
2006
445
2012
343
2016
331
2021
359
Growth rate
(2006-2012)
-23%
Study Area
5,192
6,857
6,617
7,185
32%
15,439
18,451
17,805
19,334
20%
City of Sydney
In 2006, education sector jobs made up 4% of total jobs in the City of Sydney, totalling 15,400 jobs. The
Study Area had a higher proportion than the LGA (10%) due to the location of some of Sydney
University’s campus within its boundary. The proportion of total jobs had not changed by 2012, although
total jobs in the industry sector grew by 20%. With the continued expansion of both the University of
Sydney and UTS, jobs in the education sector are forecast to continue to grow. Of interest is the decline
of education jobs in the Corridor, contracting by 23% between 2006 and 2012. Given the sharp increase
in Creative Industries jobs in the corridor, it is likely that these have replaced a number of the education
jobs.
Health
The City of Sydney is home to three major hospital facilities, with clusters around RPA, St Vincents and
the Sydney Hospital and Eye Hospital. As part of a global trend in health service provision, a number of
cities have developed innovative health and/or health and education precincts. A complex range of
factors influence the location and growth of health and biotechnology clusters. They operate in an
environment where, to compete, they continually develop their knowledge base, interact with
researchers and clinicians, make use of knowledge infrastructure and laboratories, work on
interdisciplinary projects with complementary firms and organisations, meet the requirements of
regulators and testing authorities, access venture capital, and draw from the knowledge based labour
pool of talented scientific and medical researchers.
According to Cooke1, “in bioscience, a university and medical school is a key factor, not only for its role
in the production of talent, but the innovative research and entrepreneurial businesses it sustains.
Similarly, large research hospitals, for patient trials of new treatments, add to regional constructed
advantage. Notably, most of these facilities are the product of initial public provision and are sustained
by public teaching and research subventions.”
In 2012, the NSW Ministry for Health undertook a strategic review to assess what the NSW health
system required in order to fulfil its potential. The review found that NSW needed to, among other
things, build a globally relevant research capacity through enhancing interactive research hubs,
strengthening the research workforce, improving research infrastructure support and building research
assets such as equipment and buildings. The review also proposed that research hubs in the Greater
Metropolitan Region should develop strategic plans that foster translation and innovation and build
research capacity.
These observations align with the links between RPA and the University of Sydney and the possible role
that the ATP could have as a location for these emerging clusters.
1 Philip Cooke (2006), “Global Bioregional Networks: A New Economic Geography of Bioscientific Knowledge”, European Planning Studies, Volume 14, Issue 9, pp. 1265-1285
TA BLE 10 . HEALTH J O BS A S A P RO P ORT ION O F TOTAL J OB S ( 20 06 & 2 0 12 )
2006
2012
Corridor
3%
2%
Study Area
3%
3%
City of Sydney
4%
4%
TA BLE 11 . HEALTH J O BS IN LG A , H I STO RI C AND FO R EC A ST ( 20 06 - 20 21 )
Historic
Forecast
Corridor
2006
220
2012
201
2016
216
2021
237
Growth rate
(2006-2012)
-9%
Study Area
1,775
2,065
2,218
2,437
16%
14,985
17,925
19,247
21,153
20%
City of Sydney
In 2006, education sector jobs made up 4% of total jobs in the City of Sydney, totalling 15,000 jobs. The
proportion of total jobs had not changed by 2012, although total jobs in the industry sector grew by
20%. Health has grown at a higher rate outside the Study Area. This is due to the lack of significant
health infrastructure within its boundaries, although RPA Hospital is nearby. As with Education, the
decline of Health jobs in the Corridor is likely due to the growth in Creative Industries which compete for
employment floorspace.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing’s decline in Australian cities over the last half century has been well documented, with
the process of globalisation and the decoupling of the value chain (the physical separation of processes
along the value chain) and movement of production activities across national borders has had a
profound impact on the structure of Australia’s economy resulting in many manufacturing processes
relocating overseas to lower cost countries. In more recent times, the impact of this macroeconomic
restructuring has been compounded by a high Australian dollar and globally soft economic conditions
that have reduced aggregate demand (Adonis, 2013). However, the experience of other manufacturing
nations has been that manufacturing can still play a relevant role in the economy if, much like other
sectors of the economy, production moves up the value chain.
At a Greater Sydney Metropolitan level the proportion of jobs in the industrial sector is predicted to
decline although the actual number of jobs is still expected to increase through to 2036. Job growth is
not expected in traditional industrial sectors but rather the highly specialised and technological
manufacturing (advanced manufacturing). As a consequence an increasingly skilled workforce will be
required.
Contemporary urban manufacturers can gain competitive advantage from their focus on innovation,
creativity and specific location. Their location within dense urban networks allows them to capitalise on
sophisticated design and local market insights, attract and retain valuable labour, and adjust quickly to
shifts in local demand (Friedman and Byron, 2012). The urban manufacturing sector therefore appears to
operate and prosper on many of the same attributes central to the success of advanced business
services, namely the benefits gained through agglomeration.
A new employment lands strategy was adopted by the City of Sydney in June 2014. This strategy covers
land currently zoned for business or industrial purposes and has informed the proposed changes to
zoning and planning controls for much of the City of Sydney’s employment lands. Some industrial areas
are expected to be retained for traditional uses, while other zones are to be introduced or expanded.
This includes changes to the land uses within the B6 Enterprise Corridor and B7 Business Park zone.
The following key changes were proposed:
-
A core industrial zone in the South West that will continue to accommodate ‘traditional
industrial’ uses
-
A flexible enterprise corridor zone through the centre part that will accommodate lower
density industrial and commercial uses
-
Business park zones in the North West and South East parts that are close to transport, services
and amenities that will provide for denser commercial activity over time.
There is an express intent in this strategy to ensure that land value remains relatively affordable,
allowing non-residential uses to locate in the area. The City of Sydney is committed to providing
opportunities for innovative, creative and cultural industries to locate in the City.
TA BLE 12 . MAN U FAC T UR IN G JO B S A S A P ROP ORT ION O F TOTA L JO B S ( 20 0 6 & 20 1 2 )
2006
2012
Corridor
2%
1%
Study Area
3%
2%
City of Sydney
3%
2%
TA BLE 13 . MAN U FAC T UR IN G JO B S I N LGA , H I STOR I C AN D FORE CA S T ( 20 0 6 -2 02 1)
Historic
Forecast
Corridor
2006
185
2012
94
2016
87
2021
80
Growth rate
(2006-2012)
-49%
Study Area
1,591
1,273
1,177
1,080
-20%
10,774
9,806
9,064
8,322
-9%
City of Sydney
Of all the industries assessed, manufacturing is the only one to have contracted across the LGA, both in
real job numbers and as a proportion of total jobs. The decline is most significant within the Corridor and
Study Area, with job numbers contracting by almost 50% over six years. This aligns with broader trends
witnessed in many developed cities and, as with many of the other industries, is likely to have been
replaced in part by the emergence of the Creative industries sector in the Study Area and Corridor.
Across the LGA, manufacturing declined in terms of jobs by 9% between 2006 and 2012. This is driven
both by the move of industrial uses out of inner city locations as well as the increased automation of
manufacturing processes. Some will remain in the area, however they may require fewer jobs to service
them.
3.4
Overall employment growth
Throughout the LGA, total jobs have grown by 23% between 2006 and 2012. Growth has been higher in
the Study Area and Corridor (30% and 35% respectively). As traditional manufacturing has moved away
and former rail infrastructure has been repurposed for employment uses (such as the Carriageworks),
jobs have grown. The gradual growth of the ATP has also seen a higher density of jobs in the Study Area
than existed previously.
TA BLE 14 . TOTAL J OB S IN THE LGA , HI STOR IC AN D FO RE CA S T (2 00 6 - 20 21 )
Historic
Corridor
Study Area
City of Sydney
3.5
Forecast
Growth rate
(2006-2012)
2006
2012
2016
2021
7,474
10,089
12,335
14,222
35%
51,185
66,735
72,177
78,862
30%
437,724
516,364
552,812
23%
356,289
CBD floorspace trends
As demand for centrally-located office floorspace continues to rise, so too do commercial rents.
Organisations are continually looking at ways to reduce costs and one emerging trend is the reduction of
floorspace assigned to each employee. This trend is partly a response to increasing spatial efficiency and
keeping costs down but is also attributed to changing work patterns. Working from home and 'hotdesking’ (where employees are not assigned a personal desk, but rather share from a pool of work
spaces) have both grown in popularity. As a consequence, floorspace per employee has gradually
declined over the past twenty years, from an average of around 20 sqm per person2 to as low as 14 sqm
in some industries3.
Sydney’s CBD contains some of the highest job densities in Australia. The CBD is home to a significant
proportion of service-related industry jobs including banking, legal, insurance and other professional
services. Figure 7 identifies where the highest concentration of jobs are located in the City of Sydney.
The CBD stands out and, with the exception of Surry Hills and Pyrmont, job density rapidly reduces away
from the eastern and western margins as well as into the Central to Eveleigh corridor. Given the trend
towards floorspace consolidation per job, the CBD’s job density is likely to increase.
2 Warren,
Clive, 2003, Room for Thought: A Study of office Use in Australia’
3 www.realcommercial.com.au/blog/tips-guides/much-office-space-business-need
FI G URE 7. TOTAL J OB DE N SI T Y, C I T Y OF SY DNE Y LG A
Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2015
Another trend emerging in the professional services sectors (and in finance in particular) is the
relocation of ‘back office’ functions (such as IT and human resources) to less central locations. An
example of this is CBA’s campus-style office in Sydney Olympic Park. The business functions locating in
these secondary centres are less reliant upon central locations to undertake their work and so are being
relocated to lower cost areas.
Businesses in some sectors are content to move their complete operations out of the CBD. Woolworths
(retail), Optus (telecommunications) and Qantas (aviation) previously had a Sydney CBD or North Sydney
presence (for head office, even if back office operations were suburban). Now however, head office and
back office functions are in Norwest, Macquarie Park and Mascot respectively.
In Melbourne, Docklands (adjacent to the CBD) has provided a relatively cheap office location and this
has allowed firms to wholly integrate their operations on a single site in a central city area.
3.6
Floorspace capacity and demand
Using the 2011 floorspace survey and ABS employment forecasts, SGS assessed the number of officelocating jobs throughout the City of Sydney in order to determine future commercial floorspace demand.
Employment capacity assessments (based upon a previous study by SGS for the City of Sydney) suggest
the LGA had capacity for approximately 140,000 jobs in 2012. By 2016, this is forecast to reduce to just
over 87,000 jobs.
The net change in forecast job numbers for the LGA between 2016 and 2041 is 98,600, which, when
compared against the estimated capacity, suggests that there is likely to be a floorspace shortage by
2041. Using the CBD average for floorspace to jobs of 24sqm per job (derived from the floorspace audit
data), an estimated 2.1 million sqm of floorspace was identified as capacity across the LGA.
Two hypothetical scenarios were then tested. The first assumed that based on forecast growth, new jobs
created between 2016 and 2041 would require 24sqm per job. This scenario would result in demand for
an additional 2.3 million sqm and therefore a deficit of 278,600sqm by 2041.
A second scenario assumed the same job increase and the same existing capacity but used a reduced
floorspace ratio of 15sqm per job for new jobs. This resulted in a surplus of over 600,000sqm across the
LGA by 2041.
TA BLE 15 . P OTE N TI AL OF FI CE FLOO RSPACE AN D J OB S BY PRE C IN C T
Capacity
Estimated capacity
(2016)
(A)
Demand
Net increase
(2016-2041)
(B)
87,074
98,600
Potential floorspace (sqm) at 24 sqm/job
2,103,967
2,382,462
(278,598)
Potential floorspace (sqm) at 15 sqm/job
2,103,967
1,479,000
624,903
Jobs
Gap (sqm)
(A-B)
Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2015. Figures derived from City of Sydney Floorspace Audit, 2011
It is unrealistic to assume that all new jobs will apply a single, reduced floorspace to jobs ratio as
different industries and companies require different amounts of floorspace. What Table 15 does identify
is that a slight intensification of floorspace use, driven either by a policy shift or guided naturally by
market forces, means that additional jobs can be accommodated in other ways than simply providing
more floorspace.
Continued investment in floorspace should take place in the CBD to retain its position as Australia’s
primary business hub, however alternative approaches to increase floorspace intensity, as outlined
above, should complement future development. Coupled with major development such as Barangaroo
and the Bays Precinct along with more ad hoc redevelopment of some CBD sites, the policy push in A
Plan For Growing Sydney to extend the CBD into the Central to Eveleigh Corridor is most relevant to the
northern part of the Study Area.
This process takes a long term view of floorspace supply and demand. It also assumes that current
commercial floorspace continues in this capacity, rather than being lost to residential uses. It is
acknowledged that in the current market, and inner city locations in particular, this loss to residential is
occurring.
3.7
Competitive centres
In addition to capacity increases within the CBD, it is important to consider other commercial centres in
Sydney’s poly-centric structure and within its Global Economic Corridor. This section assesses the
relative offerings of competing centres across Sydney to ascertain where particular industries are likely
to locate if they do not seek a central Sydney location. This is helps to refine what the Study Area. The
centres assessed are:





Parramatta
The North Shore (including North Sydney, St Leonards and Chatswood)
Macquarie Park
Sydney Olympic Park
Green Square
Growth in office floorspace over the past decade across Sydney has been concentrated in the newer
business park centres where there is more capacity for growth and development, as well as the former
industrial precincts in Pyrmont/Ultimo and Surry Hills (CBD fringe) and Alexandria and Mascot (South
Sydney) (refer to Table 16).
TA BLE 16 . SYDN E Y ME T RO O FF I CE MA RKE T S 2 00 4 - 20 14
2004
% share
2009
% share
2014
% share
20042014
% change
2004-14
Sydney CBD
4,492,884
58%
4,742,798
52%
4,958,706
55%
465,822
10.4%
CBD fringe
320,000
4%
800,000
9%
480,000*
150.0%*
South Sydney
126,000
2%
385,717
4%
448,817
5%
322,817
256.2%
North Sydney
806,803
10%
814,893
9%
848,605
9%
41,802
5.2%
St Leonards
358,474
5%
354,084
4%
357,333
4%
-1,141
-0.3%
Chatswood
298,286
4%
295,332
3%
280,845
3%
-17,441
-5.8%
Macquarie Park
475,397
6%
755,897
8%
854,251
9%
378,854
79.7%
Parramatta
602,325
8%
660,326
7%
685,878
8%
83,553
13.9%
Norwest
240,000
3%
296,131
3%
400,000
4%
160,000
66.7%
Olympic Park
30,500
0%
95,261
1%
250,000
3%
219,500
719.7%
7,750,669
100%
9,200,439
100%
9,084,435
100%
2,133,766
27.5%
Total
(Not available)
Source: CBRE 2004, 2009, Colliers 2004, 2009, Savills 2014
*growth 2004 to 2009
The growth over the past two decades within these office markets (excluding the Sydney CBD) is
illustrated in Figure 8, highlighting the strong growth in commercial floorspace over the past five years at
Sydney Olympic Park. Macquarie Park experienced strong growth between 2004 and 2009, however this
has stabilised somewhat over the past five years. A similar trend has been experienced in South Sydney.
FI G URE 8. SYDN E Y ME T RO O FF I CE MA RKE T S 2 00 4 - 20 14
Source: CBRE 2004, 2009, Colliers 2004, 2009, Savills 2014
*2005 figure
For the campus or business park office centres, growth has been driven by large floorplate formats
(allowing integrated operations), lower rents (compared to the CBD), car based on accessibility and
proximity to executive and office labour. For Parramatta, government policy has supported growth but it
is also centrally located and accessible and is gaining new momentum as a more complex, mixed use and
liveable CBD which also adds to its appeal for employment.
Net face rents within these centres are also much lower than within the more constrained and
traditional CBD centres such as North Sydney (refer to Figure 9) as well as the Sydney CBD.
FI G URE 9. N ON - CB D O F FI CE MA RKE T I ND ICATO RS ( 20 1 4)
Source: Colliers International, 2014
These competing centres, along with the Sydney CBD, CBD fringe (Ultimo/Pyrmont and Surry Hills) and
Central to Eveleigh have been compared based on various factors which are likely to affect the choice of
location made by investors and tenants (Table 17). This provides a qualitative overview of competing
centres against criteria that attract industry location. It also identifies industries that may be more suited
to locating in the centres.
3
Competition for residential
1
1
3
3
Proximity to CBD
1
3
1
1
Transport accessibility
2
3
2
Capacity to accommodate growth
1
1
Proximity to professional workforce
2
Public domain and open space
Land use mix/activity
Ev
el
ei
gh
o
ge
ra
lt
2
3
fri
n
3
1
Gr
e
Sy
dn
CB
D
Ce
nt
ey
2
2
en
Ol
ym
2
Potential for large floorplates
CB
D
ar
e*
Sq
u
ar
k
M
ac
qu
pi
cP
ar
ie
No
Rents
rth
Pa
rr
am
Sh
o
at
ta
re
Pa
rk
TA BLE 17 . CO MPAR IS ON OF CE N T RE S
?
1
2
?
1
2
2
3
2
2
3
3
1
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
3
2
2
2
1
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
3
3
2
3
2
2
3
3
Industries
professional and financial services
advanced manufacturing
3
wholesale
3
health
3
government
3
education
3
2
3
2
3
creative industries
3
2
3
3
Less favourable
* Indicates a forecast based on understanding of future development
↓
More favourable
Based on this comparison and the analysis above, the following conclusions can be drawn:
Rents are likely to be a significant determinant for tenants. Rents are lowest in Macquarie Park
and highest within the Sydney CBD. The Study Area is likely to provide an attractive, lower rent
central Sydney location.
-
Industries and tenants which require large floorplates are likely to be attracted to Macquarie
Park and Sydney Olympic Park due to the availability of large campus-style developments with
large floorplates, as well as the capacity within these centres for growth. If the Study Area can
provide comparable large floor plate opportunities it will compete effectively with these
locations.
-
Competition for residential development is a significant issue in Parramatta and along the
North Shore and these are the centres which have limited capacity to accommodate growth in
commercial floorspace. Residential encroachment and price competition will impact on the
Study Area.
-
Professional services uses seeking A Grade office space outside of the Sydney CBD are likely to
be attracted to commercial centres along the North Shore, particularly North Sydney and
Chatswood, and Parramatta. The Study Area will satisfy a different market to these locations.
-
‘Back office’ financial services are currently attracted to Parramatta and Sydney Olympic Park
and this is likely to continue, though the Study Area could attract some such uses if the right
sites were available at competitive rents.
-
Advanced technology and wholesale industries are likely to continue to be attracted to
Macquarie Park due to the lower rents and existing concentrations of these industries.
-
Green Square is a proposed commercial centre and therefore it is not known what sort of uses
the centre will accommodate, however it is likely that it will be a range of information
technology, financial and professional services uses. The Study Area can add to the early
‘critical mass’ that might make Green Square more attractive as a major office location in the
medium to long term.
3.8
Implications for the Study Area
As workplace habits change, the capacity shortfall identified in some market reports can be overcome
through more efficient use of space (as demonstrated in Table 15). As new capacity becomes available
over time with projects such as Barangaroo, Green Square and the Bays Precinct, as well as development
throughout Sydney’s other office precincts, the need for the CBD to expand southward into the Study
Area may ease.
Sydney’s polycentric structure has helped to develop a number of centres. These centres are suited to
particular industry requirements although not all centres are suitable to all industries. Each industry
seeks (or desires) certain characteristics such as location, accessibility, floorspace or amenity
characteristics.
This puts the Study Area in a position to attract commercial development that seeks the mix of
characteristics that it offers; namely proximity to the CBD, good public transport accessibility and
importantly, proximity to both the tertiary education and creative industries sectors. The Study Area may
act as a catalyst for the growth of Green Square, given its proximity to the new town centre and the
benefit of age that Green Square does not. The varied built form that defines the Study Area comes from
over a century of development and re-appropriation of existing buildings to suit new purposes. This
grain and character should not be underestimated as an attractor for industries and organisations.
Of the major industries assessed, all but manufacturing has shown growth in the Study Area and
Corridor since 2006. Of these, the creative industries sector has grown most significantly, with jobs
increasing in the Study Area by 59% between 2006 and 2012. This clustering of industries has begun to
emerge in the Study Area and it suggests that the area is naturally attractive to this sector given its
proximity to the CBD and urban form. The growth of the creative industries sector should therefore be a
core focus for the development of the Study Area.
Office-locating industries have also grown with the development of the ATP, growing at 24%.
Manufacturing on the other hand has declined by 20%, as its lower value struggles to compete with
higher yielding competitive uses. The identified trend in health and bioscience clustering with
universities aligns closely with land uses just outside of the Study Area boundary and their links can be
explored within the ATP and Study Area more broadly.
The Study Area is an important future employment centre for Sydney, however it currently lacks large
scale development opportunities required to develop a CBD typology and must therefore play to its
strengths. Larger floorplate opportunities do exist, however they are primarily within sites at the ATP,
and potential floorspace above Central and Redfern Stations. These latter developments are unlikely to
be realised in the next ten to fifteen years without significant government intervention. This timing for
development may be appropriate given capacity at Barangaroo, the existing CBD and Green Square and
in centres such as Parramatta and North Sydney.
The availability of commercial floorspace throughout Sydney’s centres, coupled with further supply in
the CBD and floorspace to jobs intensification means that large format, CBD style office development is
not likely to be the predominant format in the central and southern parts of the Study Area. Where it
may be suitable, primarily in the north of the Study Area, it may not be required in the short to medium
term given supply elsewhere. Instead, other formats more appropriate to the available site opportunities
and surrounding economic assets may better support the Study Area’s predominant uses and provide
employment opportunities that strengthen the local and metropolitan economy overall.
The following chapters examine the relative overall strengths of the Study Area and the opportunities it
may attract based on the characteristics of its precincts and difference to competing centres.
4 CENTRAL TO EVELEIGH
STUDY AREA
4.1
Introduction
The diversity of the Central to Eveleigh Study Area presents opportunities to attract a range of
employment over the long term. This chapter examines the key influences on and characteristics of the
Study Area, and draws on the analysis to identify different precincts within the Study Area.
FI G URE 1 0.
CE N TR AL TO E V E LE I GH ST U DY A RE A CO N TE X T M AP
4.2
Drivers and influences
Public transport accessibility
The Study Area is serviced by a number of train stations; Central, Redfern, Macdonaldtown and
Erskineville. The majority of CBD-servicing trains run through these stations to the southern and western
areas of Sydney. Redfern Station in particular enables the area to be accessed by a large proportion of
the Sydney labour market as it is a main station and transfer for all rail lines except the East Hills Line
(which goes to the airport). A journey from Redfern to Town Hall is approximately five minutes,
highlighting its proximity to the CBD. In 2011, the station was identified as the eighth busiest station in
Sydney during the AM peak4 and is identified in the Long Term Transport Masterplan as requiring an
upgrade. Although trains running between Macdonaldtown and Redfern stations currently operate at
93% seated capacity (2011), this is expected to rise to 147% by 20315.
The southern end of the Corridor has lower public transport accessibility when compared to the land
immediately surrounding Redfern Station. The Australian Technology Park is accessed from Platform 10
at Redfern Station through a secondary entry point to the station via Marion Street. Although
Macdonaldtown station is close by, it is not easily accessible from the Australian Technology Park and
does not have regular services stopping at it. Erskineville and Newtown stations serve the southern
fringe of the Corridor.
Redfern Station is located south of the intersection between Cleveland Street and Regent Street, two
major CBD feeder roads. South of Cleveland Street, Regent Street splits to form Regent and Gibbons
Streets. These create a one-way system that assist in the flow of traffic into and out of the CBD. This oneway system significantly reduces pedestrian accessibility to the east of Redfern Station, with the two
roads separating the station from the retail and commercial strip of Redfern Street.
Redfern Station is the closest station to Sydney University and it is this proximity that accounts for the
station’s high patronage (beyond its major transfer role). The university is less than one kilometre from
the station and the majority of students walk along Lawson and Abercrombie Streets to reach the
campus. Lawson Street in particular is ill equipped to deal with the daily volume of student footfall, with
its residential neighbourhood and narrow footpaths.
Bicycle accessibility is intermittent and dedicated cycle paths are predominantly north-south, running
along George Street to Cleveland Street. A number of east-west streets are identified as bicycle friendly,
however crossing the railway line at Lawson Street requires navigating the one-way system and a heavily
congested road network.
Potential rail expansion through Sydney Metro project
Transport for NSW is progressing with a plan to develop a Sydney Metro through the CBD. Initial
assessment of station locations did not include a station between Central Station and Sydenham,
however this is currently being reviewed. Two options exist for a proposed station; at the University of
Sydney and at Waterloo. Both options will influence the Study Area and have benefits to different parts
of the Study Area. A station at the University of Sydney would likely lessen the number of journeys into
Redfern Station while a station at Waterloo should increase the intensity of development between the
station and Botany Road and may provide new employment opportunities as part of mixed-use renewal.
This would include some commercial and retail floorspace.
4 Compendium
5 NSW
of Sydney Rail Travel Statistics, 8th Ed, 2012, p 51
Long Term Transport Master Plan, 2012 p86
This report does not undertake a study to determine whether the proposed Sydney Metro project would
deliver sufficient capacity to support the intensification of commercial and residential development
within the Study Area.
Proximity to CBD
The Study Area’s central location attracts a variety of land uses. The CBD abuts the northern edge of the
Study Area and extends towards the harbour. Approximately a quarter of a million jobs are located
within the CBD, with an estimated 170,000 of these in the professional services industries (including
finance, legal and insurance). The CBD’s current southern boundary is created by Central Station and the
scale of the associated rail infrastructure.
University links
To the west and north-west, the Corridor is bounded by the University of Sydney and University of
Technology Sydney (UTS). These universities have student populations of approximately 54,000 and
37,000 respectively. The University of Sydney is expecting to increase its student population by 10,000 by
2025. Additionally, the University of Notre Dame has a small campus on Broadway.
Both Sydney University and UTS are investing in their campuses through expansion and redevelopment.
Sydney University’s faculty of Agriculture and Environment is already located at the Australian
Technology Park, however it is isolated from the wider university campus. Given the development of the
ATP around innovation and knowledge sharing, coupled with faculty buildings requiring a large
floorplate, the ATP could be the focus for greater university investment, in particular around the
emerging partnering with both private and public sector institutes being seen in the global tertiary
education sector. By ‘professionalising’ the location of selective university faculties, they could align
themselves more closely with the professions that they support. This is already seen in the legal
profession in Sydney, with part of the University of Sydney’s law school being located in a teaching space
in the St James court district in the CBD.
Student accommodation
As a consequence of proximity to multiple university campuses and the prevalence of large floorplate
traditional inner city warehouses, in recent years a number of self-contained student housing
developments have emerged between Redfern Station through Chippendale to Broadway and the
redeveloped CUB site. This accommodation is aimed at the growing international student market, which
has grown by an average of 8 percent annually over the past decade across Australia and is expected to
grow by a further 30 percent by 2020. Student accommodation requires close proximity to the
universities, good public transport accessibility and local retail in order to provide an effective product
for the students using them.
There is already a strong student housing accommodation offering in the Study Area, in particular on and
north of Cleveland Street. Given the proximity to two major universities (and Notre Dame) and public
transport access to others, the Study Area is well suited to providing some level of student
accommodation. Student housing should complement rather than crowd out private or affordable
residential development. The North and South Eveleigh precincts are well placed for this, especially if
east-west pedestrian links to Macdonaldtown station and the University of Sydney are established.
Creative industries
To the north of Redfern Station, Pyrmont-Ultimo and Surry Hills are centres for a number of creative
industries. This collection of industries is loosely categorised based on their use of creativity in
developing their product or by the fact that the product itself is creative (such as artist studios). All three
of these areas have a high proportion of their jobs identified as creative (61% and 42% respectively). The
areas are constrained and are experiencing increasing demand and low vacancies. There is therefore a
gradual shift south towards Redfern & Waterloo of creative industries seeking proximity to the more
established areas but either priced out or seeking ‘new’ areas and characteristics.
As demand continues to rise for commercial floorspace in Surry Hills and Chippendale, the Redfern
Station precinct is a logical extension southward. Development of a number of shared office spaces
south of Cleveland Street in Chippendale is an indicator of a new commercial floorspace typology that
suits the flexibility of the creative industries. This flexibility extends beyond their working structure to
their collaborative nature, where individuals or small companies scale up and down in terms of size,
depending on project type.
The Corridor currently accommodates a number of creative industries in and around the Carriageworks
site. A continuation of this corridor linking Chippendale to the Carriageworks would form the foundation
for the commercial identity of the central section of the Corridor.
To the east of Redfern Station, the high street of Redfern Street is developing as a strong community
centre in the Study Area. Already attracting retail aimed at the creative market, Redfern Street has the
potential to form an east-west axis between Chippendale, the Carriageworks and across to Surry Hills.
The area surrounding Redfern Street has several small to medium-sized development opportunity sites
that could accommodate a number of creative industries-focused businesses and begin to reinforce the
area’s innovative identity. Such an identity is important in attracting larger businesses to the area who
want to align with these professional communities.
These creative industry hot-spots identified in Figure 11 (where jobs within a range of creative industries
make up a larger proportion of total jobs in the area) attest to this clustering either side of the corridor
and their gradual move south towards Carriageworks.
FI G URE 1 1.
CRE AT IVE IN D U STRY JO B S A S A P ROPO RT ION O F TOTAL J OB S, C IT Y O F
SYDN E Y, 2 01 2
These creative links extend towards the Ultimo-Pyrmont area where there is an emerging digital
economy cluster. These currently disparate elements will form part of a broader creative arc running
through the city. This is indicated by the two red arrows.
It is worth noting that many of these creative industry businesses or start-ups do not have the financial
capacity to develop the sites and spaces that they are attracted to. They therefore rely on third parties
to develop commercial premises that provide an attractive offering, both in terms of character and price
point. Alternatively, a number of creative industry organisations start life in people’s homes and often
continue as home offices once established.
Australian Technology Park
The Australian Technology Park (ATP), located south of Redfern Station, is home to a number technologyfocused businesses including Channel 7 and NEP. It was established in 1996 to provide large floorplate
development potential for industries requiring larger, campus-style lots close to the CBD and had an
emphasis on knowledge sharing. Development demand has not necessarily met expectations and ten
years after the park opened, there is still capacity for approximately 100,000sqm of floorspace before
the masterplan is realised. It could be said that the ATP lacks the activation that comes with job density
and mixed uses, though it also provides unencumbered large floor plate development opportunities.
UrbanGrowth has sought Expressions of Interest ahead of a sale at the ATP.
Lot size variety
To the east of Regent Street, adjacent to the Corridor, the suburbs of Redfern-Waterloo have undergone
a gradual process of organic regeneration as people have been drawn to its terrace and warehouse
building stock and proximity to transport and the city. The suburb has grown around the central eastwest high street of Redfern Street which has developed as a cosmopolitan retail and commercial strip
servicing the local area. It is characterised by independent cafes and stores and identifies with the
creative mind-set of the industries locating in and around the area. Further south, the residential grain
increases and is dominated by the Redfern-Waterloo housing public housing blocks that many people
associate with the area.
The Chippendale-Redfern-Waterloo areas surrounding the Corridor present a mix of lot sizes and uses.
There are a number of larger floorplate warehouses scattered throughout the Study Area, although
many are located north of Lawson Street in Chippendale. Many, however, have been converted to
residential or knocked down and redeveloped as residential towers and are therefore unlikely to develop
for employment in the future.
Sites that are large enough to form part of a consolidated economic centre, are scattered throughout the
Study Area, making a coordinated approach to a single large floorplate solution more challenging. Those
that do offer larger floor area possibilities are still small relative to the floorspace levels found in the ATP
or required by larger firms seeking to relocate.
The Study Area has a number of potential development sites that could attract smaller businesses
looking to locate in the area. These are predominantly east of the rail line but also include potential in
the Chippendale area. These sites are relatively small in area and scattered throughout the Study Area.
Their size allows them to be developed by small-scale developers and investors, without the capital
required for larger floorplate development. They could therefore be encouraged as a first wave of
commercial infill development. These types of commercial developments can co-exist with residential
uses and house creative industry offices such as architecture studios.
Development potential
A number of potential development sites throughout the Study Area have already been converted to
residential use and with strata title make it difficult to reconvert to commercial uses.
There is still significant capacity for future development at the ATP (approximately 100,000sqm). This
capacity is important to the economic future of the Study Area, however it is likely that it requires better
access to Redfern Station and better amenity in order to attract future tenants. A targeted, longer term
strategy is required to address this.
The final type of development site involves the air rights to Redfern Station and the rail corridor towards
Central Station. There is potential to locate a significant amount of floorspace above a redeveloped
Redfern Station, however this relies on land values increasing in order to justify the costs. Initial concept
plans for Central Station identified close to one million sqm of floorspace in a mixed use development.
Both of these options are a long term propositions.
The diagram below shows the number of sites between 500-1,000sqm that are unencumbered by strata
title and which have potential for future infill development. Although there are many larger lots, they are
primarily rail lines, parkland or existing social housing sites. The areas circled indicate the opportunity for
infill development due to the lack of development encumbrances in the identified areas, prior to any
major development taking place over rail lines. Particularly in Chippendale, the smaller lot sizes and
demand for current built form in these areas may mean that development potential is limited to
conversion or intensification of existing buildings. Lot amalgamation and redevelopment is likely to be
opportunistic and ad hoc.
FI G URE 1 2.
LOT SIZE R AN GES
Employment lands
South of the Corridor, between Redfern and the Airport are the primary industrial areas of the City of
Sydney. These still serve a key local and sub-regional industrial function and increasingly, a mix of
businesses. They, along with the industrial precincts of nearby Marrickville, are gradually beginning to
accommodate urban manufacturing; a new manufacturing typology that is small-scale, specialised and
focused at high-end clients, often located in or near the CBD. The proximity of these urban
manufacturers to the creative industries is critical for business-to-business development.
Incumbent community
Aside from the Corridor’s proximity to the CBD and its public transport accessibility, one of its keys points
of difference to its competitors as discussed in Chapter 3, is its established and diverse residential
community. The Study Area also includes small clusters of local retail that support a variety of residential
typologies, from Victorian terraces to new residential towers and public housing developments. As a
consequence, any development within the Study Area must be aware that the characteristics identified
as attractive and unique are strongly influenced by this established residential layer.
That is not to say that major development for strategic metropolitan uses should not take place. Instead,
development within the Study Area should complement this existing community rather than seek to
replace it. A residential component to development will help to contribute to this but must be done in a
way that adds to the area’s aesthetic characteristics. Any new residential development will impact on
existing services, including retail offerings and therefore may require additional local shopping facilities
to accommodate the growth.
Significant work has already been undertaken to explore redevelopment options for the large public
housing estates around Redfern and Waterloo. The development of these have the potential to further
increase the diversity of housing options and increase the population density of the Study Area.
Convergence of multiple uses
Figure 13 summarises these surrounding land uses and the direction their influence is moving within the
Corridor and broader Study Area.
FI G URE 1 3.
4.3
C UR RE N T P RE CIN C T IN FLUE N CE S
Study Area precincts
In order to lay the foundation for targeted economic development actions and development scenarios,
SGS has identified four broad precincts across the Study Area. These precincts have been identified by
their dominant function, lot and site characteristics and urban form. These precincts are identified in
Figure 14 and each is addressed in detail in the following chapters.
FI G URE 1 4.
COR RI DO R P RE CIN C T S
4.4
Economic Assets
Throughout the Study Area, there a number of economic assets whose presence (or potential) can
provide a foundation for economic development directions. The principles and actions outlined in the
subsequent chapters expand on these, but are broadly identified in Figure 15.
FI G URE 1 5.
ECON O MI C AS SE T S OF T HE ST U DY A REA
CHINATOWN
ULTIMO
CENTRAL STATION
UTS
SURRY HILLS
CHIPPENDALE
DARLINGTON
U SYD
REDFERN STATION
REDFERN
CARRIAGEWORKS
ATP
MACDONALDTOWN
STATION
WATERLOO
EVELEIGH
ERSKINEVILLE STATION
GREEN SQUARE
4.5
Development horizons
It is important to recognise the long term nature of a development such as the Central to Eveleigh Study
Area. Implementation of a complex strategy will occur over various phases. Longer-term, transformative
development will require smaller-scale development to build an economic platform. Due to the Study
Area’s scale, diversity and the complexity of delivering a coordinated strategy over a number of decades,
this report suggests three ‘Horizons’ for each precinct within the Study Area. These three horizons are
described as follows:
Consolidate
Initial phase requiring identification of target market for economic growth and
establishment of achievable adaptations that can be made without relying on other
catalytic development. This is predominantly localised, targeted infill development
that seeks to ‘lock-in’ obvious development prospects.
Enhance
Takes the precinct to the ‘next level’ based on full development of competitive
advantage. The stage in which significant change is undertaken to support the area’s
transformation.
Transform
Seeks a ‘step-change’ in the precinct’s prospects, well beyond what is currently
envisaged. Likely to be achieved where larger investors are attracted to the area and
can invest in major infrastructure improvements or provision.
FI G URE 1 6.
TH RE E H OR IZON S IM PLE ME NTAT ION
While actions associated with any of these horizons are not necessarily time-bounded, the Three
Horizons implementation strategy recognises the long-term nature of the Central to Eveleigh prospect.
The need to develop relationships between public and private stakeholders over time as well as allow for
initial development (in the Consolidate Horizon) to gradually increase land values. This enables Second
and Third Horizon developments to become more viable and likely.
4.6
Development scenarios
The ‘Three Horizon’ model forms the basis for the three development scenarios outlined in this report.
These build on the actions identified in the following chapters and are explained in greater detail in
Chapter 9.
5 ULTIMO-CENTRAL
PRECINCT
5.1
Precinct overview
The Ultimo-Central precinct is the northernmost precinct in the Study Area and the precinct most
aligned to the CBD. The precinct does not have an identifiable centre. It is fragmented by intersecting
transport corridors which has created separate sub-precincts such as Chinatown, Central Station (and
surrounds), Ultimo and the education cluster of UTS and Sydney TAFE. The fragmentation is exacerbated
by the awkward connection between the varied laneway patterns of Chinatown, the elongated grid of
Ultimo and the divisive nature of George Street.
The precinct has a varied street pattern, with the grid pattern of Ultimo contrasting with the smaller
informal laneways of Haymarket. These differences create a range in block and lot sizes. The expansion
of the CBD southward has been constrained by this irregular form and smaller lot pattern. The precinct
has a number of cultural assets such as Chinatown, theatres and restaurants and bars. The UTS and
Sydney TAFE campuses dominate the Ultimo part of the precinct while the northern end contains a
number of large-floorplate commercial buildings.
The southern end of George Street has a number of buildings of heritage value and these provide finer
grained retail opportunities. Central Station is the precinct’s anchor, accommodating Sydney’s major
local and intercity transport hub.
5.2
The precinct is currently forecast to grow to 38,301 jobs and 18,450 residents by 2031.
TA BLE 18 . P OP ULAT ION AN D E MP LOY ME N T G ROWT H ( 2 01 1 – 20 31 )
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Precinct employment
31,723
32,095
34,768
36,759
38,301
Precinct population
11,006
11,524
14,149
16,016
18,450
Source: BTS Population and Employment Forecasts, 2014
The employment landscape over this time appears constant with the three largest industries by
proportion of total jobs retaining their primacy. The slight decline across all three however (Table 19),
coupled with the growth of competing industries (Table 20) suggests that the precinct is gradually
diversifying its employment mix. Education still remains dominant due to the UTS and TAFE campuses
within the precinct.
TA BLE 19 . TOP THRE E IN DU ST RI ES OF E M PLOY ME NT AN D PE RCE NTAGE O F TOTAL
E MP LOYME N T ( 20 1 1 – 203 1)
2011
Industry
2021
%age of
total jobs
2031
Industry
%age of
total jobs
Industry
%age of
total jobs
Education and Training
16.6%
15.8%
16.5%
Public Administration and
Safety
16.2%
Safety
15.9%
Safety
15.7%
Transport, Postal and
Warehousing
15.1%
Warehousing
13.6%
Warehousing
12.4%
Source: BTS Employment Forecasts, 2014
TA BLE 20 . TOP THRE E IN DU ST RI ES BY FO RE CA ST G ROW TH R ATE ( 2 01 1 – 2 03 1)
Industry
Percentage of total jobs
Health Care and Social Assistance
52.0%
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Retail Trade
42.4%
39.5%
5.3
Opportunities
-
Southern gateway to Sydney CBD. Inclusion of office buildings at CBD’s southern reaches
enables the precinct to provides a nexus between the CBD and the diversity of uses south of
Central Station. As the UTS campus continues to develop (most recently with the Dr Chau Chuk
Wing building) and with Central Park recently completed, the southern reaches of George
Street can develop as a clear entry point into Sydney’s CBD.
-
Central Station and Railway Square. A high volume, mixed-mode transport interchange that
offers a high degree of public transport accessibility for a broad workforce catchment.
Development in this precinct is well serviced by a number of transport routes.
-
Highly-skilled workforce. Within the precinct there are a high proportion of professional and
creative industry jobs clustered around George Street and towards Pyrmont-Ultimo. This is well
supported by UTS and Notre Dame Universities and the Sydney TAFE campuses.
-
Access to range of cultural and tourism destinations. The inclusion of Chinatown, the southern
reaches of Darling Harbour and the tourist strip of southern George Street and Eddy Avenue
provide a number of cultural assets to align future developments with.
-
Fine grain street pattern. The laneway typology of Haymarket and Ultimo provide
opportunities for multiple uses within a contained area.
-
Operation of the CBD and South East Light Rail. Increased public transport connectivty
between the southern edge of the CBD with the rest of the CBD and south-eastern Sydney
would improve accessibility to this area and Pyrmont-Ultimo. This will better position the
Ultimo-Central Precinct to attract CBD-focused development.
-
Alignment with Darling Harbour and Haymarket. The redevelopment of Darling Harbour and
the proximity to the activity generators of Haymarket and the Convention Centre precinct may
increase activation within the Ultimo-Central Precinct. This provides the opportunity for the
precinct to better align with these areas.
Challenges
-
Lack of centre. This precinct has no identifiable centre. It does not fully engage with the CBD
and other uses such as Central Station and Chinatown are inwardly-focused. This is exacerbated
by Belmore Park and the heavily-trafficked Eddy Avenue separating Central Station from the
CBD’s southern reaches.
-
Irregular street pattern. Irregular blocks make amalgamation difficult and many of the uniform
blocks are already amalgamated for high-rise offices or university uses. Narrow laneways make
deliveries difficult for shops and offices.
-
Disconnect between Ultimo and CBD. The two main employment areas of this precinct are
poorly connected making integration with emerging tech industries in Ultimo with the capital in
the CBD difficult.
-
Poor perception. Although the area has seen significant development over recent years, the
area suffers like many surrounding primary inter-state railway stations from a perception of
grime and crime.
-
Demand for larger office space. With the development of Barangaroo, Green Square and the
Bays precinct, combined with the trend toward less floorspace per worker, the demand for
office space in the Central to Eveleigh corridor is currently limited. This limited demand could
continue for 20 years.
-
Sufficient supply of car parking and transport options. As use increases within the precinct,
demand for accessibility will continue, both for public transport and private vehicles With the
latter, developments should consider the impact that increase visitiation will have on
surrounding road networks.
5.4
Future demand
The Ultimo-Central Precinct is likely to see most of its demand coming from CBD-facing commercial
development as well as longer term expansion of educational institutions such as UTS and Sydney TAFE.
The Study Area has seen a 24% growth in demand for office-locating industries between 2006 and 2012
(Chapter 3). The Ultimo-Central Precinct is most suited to accommodating future growth in this market.
An additional 5,600 jobs in these industries is forecast in the Study Area between 2012 and 2021.
5.5
Development vision
This precinct can become the southern anchor for CBD office and commercial activity. This aligns with
policy 1.1.2 of The Department of Planning and Environment’s ‘A Plan for Growing Sydney’ which
encourages expansion of the CBD south towards the Central to Eveleigh Corridor.
5.6
First horizon: Lock in benefits of recent renewal and investment
The precinct has witnessed a number of major developments over the past five years. These include the
conversion of the former Carlton United Breweries (CUB) site to Central Park (although it is located in the
Chippendale-Surry Hills Precinct), the development of the Sydney Goods Line and development within
the UTS campus. The benefits of these developments to the broader Sydney economy should be
leveraged as key assets within the precinct.
Recommendations:
1.
Upgrade connectivity throughout the precinct
The City of Sydney is already considering connectivity issues in this precinct, along with
relevant government and other partners, and this work is supported and should continue.
Initiatives to be considered include reviewing traffic and pedestrian light sequences to
optimise pedestrian flows and re-prioritising in favour of people and pedestrian movements
around Central Station.
-
2.
3.
Encourage temporary events undertaken by both public and private sector stakeholders to
enliven Belmore Park and public spaces fringing Central Station to extend usage of space
beyond thoroughfares. This could involve partnering with cultural institutions such as theatre
and community groups.
Upgrade amenity throughout the precinct
Improve safety through lighting upgrades and implementation of Crime Prevention through
Environmental Design (CPTED) principles to reduce perception of safety issues, in particular
around Central Station and Railway Square.
-
Improvements to Belmore Park to improve night-time access and reduce the activity gap
between Central Station and the CBD. This should be in line with proposed improvements
included in the City of Sydney in their Sydney’s Sustainable 2030 Strategy.
-
Convert ‘wasted’ road carriageway and underutilised public realm to public plazas. These
solutions can be short-term, through road closures or long-term through road realignment and
public realm design. The approach taken by the City of New York with Times Square or Suwon
in South Korea are good precedents. Any approach should involve local businesses to ensure
local economic support and support of uses geared towards their support.
-
The state and federal governments, in partnership with social welfare organisations such as
the Salvation Army could seek local precinct private sponsors and contributors to
homelessness strategies (e.g the City of Sydney’s Homelessness Brokerage Programme). This
will assist in the improved perception of the Central Station part of the precinct.
Encourage creative uses throughout government assets at Central Station and wider precinct
Support for emerging businesses around Oxford Street has been successfully providedthrough
the City of Sydney’s Low Rent Scheme. This or a similar model could be adopted
forgovernment property (and even underutilised private property assets) to build upon the
established and growing creative industries sectors in Ultimo and across into Surry Hills.
Second horizon: Facilitate new office investment
To accommodate future demand for CBD floorspace, the northern section of this precinct, between Eddy
Avenue and George Street, could accommodate new commercial developments.
4.
Audit existing sites suitable for large floor plate office or re-investment
A number of existing buildings and sites provide the potential for development within the
existing curtilage of the CBD. Sites within this precinct could increase A-grade office floorspace
with excellent public transport accessibility. The City of Sydney already undertake a
comprehensive floorspace audit and this and other investigations could be utilised to identify
candidate office development sites.
5.
‘Workshop’ with key urban professionals and owners of suitable sites to identify barriers to
redevelopment
Numerous reasons may exist for why these sites (and others) are not developed or developed
to their potential. A workshop with relevant landowners and stakeholders, along with
professionals such as planners. architects, commercial realtors and valuers may identify
development barriers through planning controls, development requirements or land use
conflicts that, once articulated, can be assessed and, where required, amended.
6.
Identify barriers to growth actions that facilitate commercial opportunities on these sites
For key sites that provide large floorplate opportunities initiatives to encourage a commercial
or office floorspace outcome should be developed. This might include the encouragement of
flexible floorspace layouts that reduce the floorspace per Full Time Employment (FTE),
refinements to development controls to ensure a significant share of office floorspace in
mixed use developments in (in either vertically or horizontally mixed-use configurations for
example).
7.
Prepare incentive package that addresses barriers to development and intensification
Once a credible package of urban design initiatives and planning control reforms have been
prepared, it would be marketed to developers.
8.
Prepare prospectus to market the precinct and the opportunities
The outputs and findings from the previous actions should be packaged into an investment
prospectus (for example by the City of Sydney and/or Urban Growth) to attract commercial
investment to the CBD’s southern tip and focus any A and B grade, CBD-focused office
floorspace in the northern section of the Study Area.
Third horizon: Provide a new commercial and activity hub at Central Station
A long-term development proposition is to develop above Central Station’s vast rail yards and the
immediate precinct. This area retains a physical connection with the CBD and could accommodate CBDfocused commercial floorspace.
9. Provide new development sites by providing a platform for office development over the
railyards
There is significant floorspace potential in the airspace above the railyards and platforms
south of Central Station. These are likely to require development partnerships between
government organisations such as Transport for NSW and private developers.
-
It is understood that Transport for NSW is reviewing development prospects and approaches
over the railyards. Subject to the findings of their analysis, funding strategies will depend on
the scale and complexity of the project, however several mechanisms should be considered:



Partial funding through business levy
Sale of air rights development conditional upon the integration with station and delivery
of project
Work with City of Sydney to identify revenue streams that could be partially utilised to
contribute to funding (for example, a percentage of car parking revenues).
6 CHIPPENDALE-SURRY
HILLS PRECINCT
6.1
Precinct overview
The Chippendale-Surry Hills precinct is defined by the similarity of its built form, street pattern and
employment profile. Turn of the twentieth-century warehouses house an increasing number of creative
industries and the two suburbs have some of the highest creative industry job densities within the City
of Sydney, although they are separated by the Rail Corridor. Demand for commercial floorspace is high
and vacancy rates are low. The precinct tends to attract a certain type of creative industries which have
filled the void left by the decline of manufacturing and railway servicing.
The precinct has developed over the past decades to become some of Sydney’s trendiest inner-city
suburbs and this has attracted employment and residential uses to the precinct. This has resulted in a
growth in service industries such as restaurants, cafes and bars which are a significant economic asset
for the precinct as its evening economy continues to develop.
6.2
TA BLE 21 . P OP ULAT ION AN D E MP LO Y ME N T G ROWT H ( 2 01 1 – 20 31 )
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Precinct employment
22,336
24,107
25,715
27,662
28,887
Precinct population
11,872
15,751
17,011
17,843
18,169
The employment landscape over this time appears constant with the three largest industries by
proportion of total jobs retaining their primacy. The slight decline across Information Media and Public
Administration is representative of the pressures faced by Professional Service sector and other higher
value competing uses such as Finance and Insurance. (Table 22 and Table 23). This reflects the growing
demand for the precinct and its location on the immediate periphery of the CBD, providing good access
to clients while attracting lower rents than premium office floorspace.
E MP LOYME N T ( 20 1 1 – 203 1)
2011
Industry
2021
%age of
total jobs
Industry
2031
%age of
total jobs
Industry
%age of
total jobs
Professional, Scientific and
Technical Services
21.4%
Technical Services
20.8%
Technical Services
21.5%
Information Media and
Telecommunications
12.1%
Telecommunications
11.4%
Telecommunications
11.3%
Safety
9.6%
Safety
9.4%
Safety
9.2%
TA BLE 23 . TOP THRE E IN DU ST RI ES BY FO RE CA ST G ROW TH RATE ( 2 01 1 – 2 03 1)
Industry
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Financial and Insurance Services
Retail Trade
109.1%
64.2%
55.0%
6.3
Opportunities
-
Strong creative industries sector. Chippendale and Surry Hills have a high proportion of
creative industry jobs. Collectively, these establish the precinct’s character and attract similar
indusitries to co-locate as well as a number of supporting industries such as retail, restaurants
and bars and some urban manufacturing.
-
CBD and transport accessibility. The precinct flanks Central Station and Railway Square with
good transport options. The precinct is well suited to attract a workforce from a wide
catchment.
-
Identifiable and flexible building stock. The precinct is heavily defined by its early twentieth
century building stock. These buildings, many former warehouses, are flexible in their use and
attract a particular organisation and industry type due to their associated identity.
-
Air-rights development potential above transport infrastructure. The Central to Eveleigh Rail
Corridor splits the precinct fron north to south. There are several small land assets on the sides
of this rail corridor (such as the Regent Street Mortuary that could be better used) as well as
significant development potential bridging the trackwork.
-
Proximity to educational facilities. The Chippendale part of the precinct is bounded by UTS and
Notre Dame University to the north, as well as the Central sydney TAFE. To the west and south,
it is bound by the University of Sydney, giving the area significant potential value to the tertiary
education sector.
-
Strong evening economy. A number of restaurants, bar and entertainment venues are located
throughout Surry Hills. These help to foster activation over a longer daily period and enhance
the area’s perceived safety of an evening.
Challenges
-
Lack of development potential. The urban characteristics that define the precinct and attract
organisations to it are barriers to significant development. In order for the area to retain its
identity, it must retain its ad-hoc appearance. This places constraints on large sections of the
precinct in accommodating projected floorspace demand.
-
Cleveland Street is a barrier to southward expansion. The arterial nature of Cleveland Street
and its role as an edge between Surry Hills and Redfern limit the natural expansion south of the
creative industries forced from Surry Hills due to lack of space or increasing rents.
-
Regent Street is a barrier to activation of Chippendale’s eastern edge. The arterial nature of
the southern CBD feeder road limits activation through its lack of pedestrian amenity. The built
form on its western edge is not appropriately used to define and celebrate the precinct.
-
Prince Alfred Park is a barrier to integration with Redfern. Although a significant piece of
social infrastructure, the park limits connectivity to the emerging Redfern creative industry
community.
-
Loss of commercial floorspace to residential. Retaining the ability for the precinct’s B2 and B4zoned land to provide commercial operations and facilitate agglomeration is hindered by the
conversion to residential use.
-
demand for accessibility will continue, both for public transport and prvate vehicle.s With the
6.4
Future demand
The Chippendale-Surry Hills Precinct will continue to see demand from the creative industry sector.
However, these established sectors are facing increasing pressure from office-based industries such as
the professional and financial sectors who are seeking to piggy-back on the character established by the
creative industry or simply looking for cheaper floorspace in proximity to the CBD. This trend accounts
for the 64% forecast growth in the Financial and Insurance sectors. Throughout the Study Area, Creative
industries have grown by 60% between 2006 and 2012 and much of this has occurred in the
Chippendale-Surry Hills Precinct. This is forecast to continue, however growth is constrained by the
precinct’s built form and lot sizes. Retail aligned to the creative industries sector (for instance, high-end
furniture stores) and cafes are forecast to grow by 55% to 2031. These will need to be accommodated in
ground floor locations and can help to refine the street activation within the precinct.
6.5
Development vision
To be recognised as the premier creative services precinct in Australia
6.6
First horizon: Consolidate the existing strengths of the precinct
The precinct has already established itself as a sought-after location for a range of industries, including
the creative sector. Organisations of a certain size and industry locate in the precinct for its urban form.
This is to be acknowledged and protected whilst increasing the capacity within existing sites and
planning controls.
1.
2.
Review planning and licensing regulations with a view to ‘freeing-up’ uses and activities within
existing building footprints as appropriate
The City of Sydney has supported initiatives to make it easier for business start ups but there
should be a constant review of application and permission processes within the City of
Sydney, with a view to facilitating the ability of new businesses to set up.
-
Undertake minor improvements to public domain through capital works program to ensure
the low key, ‘funky’ nature of the precinct is retained.
-
Relax operational approvals (including outdoor seating licences) for restaurants/cafes to
encourage street activation.
Investigate ways of ensuring a commercial or business component in mixed use
redevelopments and in existing residential areas.
- Commercial uses and activities are being ‘lost’ to residential development in small and micro
business precincts in inner Sydney including in the Chippendale-Surry Hills Precinct. A review of
current permissible uses and urban design and economic development initiatives should be
undertaken to to support existing and develop new commercial clusters. The City of Stonnington in
Melbourne is proposing to address the loss of business floorspace in the South Yarra precinct by
establishing a ‘vertical zoning’ system in the Chapel Street Activity Centre (including the South Yarra,
Prahran and Windsor precincts). If adopted, the zone would require developers to retain the
ground, first and second floors for retail and commercial use only. Any residential development on
the lower floors would need a permit. However, the second floor could be used for residential
purposes if the building was on a side street. The City of Sydney could consider such a system, or
perhaps rely more on differential FSR controls (which are not such a feature of the planning system
in Melbourne).
- Another approach would be to provide greater flexibility for uses in areas currently zoned R1 to
encourage live-work arrangements.
3.
Retain the character that defines the Chippendale-Surry Hills precinct
Chippendale-Surry Hills is defined by its street pattern, lot size and built form charecteristics.
These should be seen as assets that attract certain sectors and retained to ensure the
character continues to define the precint.
Second horizon – Add appropriate and complementary cultural facilities
Supporting industries, such as restaurants/cafes and other cultural facilities are important in providing a
mix of uses. They can extend the precinct’s trading times and period of activation, further consolidating
the area as a premier creative precinct in the city.
4.
Seek expressions of interest for creative uses (design shops, galleries, bars) in public buildings
and spaces
Encouraging uses such design shops, galleries and bars in identifiable buildings such as the
Regent Street Mortuary and Chalmers Street heritage buildings (at the Devonshire Street
entrance to Central) can help to build the evening economy and align it with the growth in
creative industries within the precinct.
Third horizon – Re-connect Chippendale and Surry Hills
There is currently little joining the suburbs of Chippendale and Surry Hills, aside from their similar urban
form and the type of industries that locate there. The Central to Eveleigh Corridor significantly divides
both commercial and physical connectivity. Increasing connectivity through improved pedestrian access
and strategically-located commercial floorspace can break down this divide and enable the precinct to
operate with the Redfern-Darlington precinct as a more effective creative precinct.
5.
Review the Regent Street – Cleveland Street junction
Identify whether pedestrian separation and connectivity can be improved (e.g. lowering road
carriageways or providing bridges for cyclists and pedestrians) as part of a broader review of
the one way system south of Cleveland.
6.
Establish commercial floorspace on the northern edge of Cleveland Street as part of a mixed
use development
Consider bridging more of the rail line at the intersection of Cleveland and Regent Streets to
provide additional floorspace as part of a mixed-use development and establish a connection
across the rail line. Development could potentially integrate with the Greek Orthodox Church
grounds in the south-western corner of Prince Alfred Park.
7.
Improve/enhance Devonshire Street tunnel or provide additional significant east-west
concourse as part of the future development of Central linked to interventions of Sydney
Metro.
As an important pedestrian thoroughfare connecting Surry Hills and Chippendale, the
current tunnel is unpleasant. Future development above the railyards could involve a retaillined thoroughfare above the station concourse.
8.
Redevelop public housing estate on Devonshire Street
Development could increase the provision of affordable housing whilst creating a more
diverse community. Development fronting Devonshire Street could provide further
activation to both sides through new retail and restaurant shop-fronts, increasing the
commercial link between Central Station and Crown Street. This would need to ‘work in’
with the new light rail project which will run in Devonshire Street.
7 REDFERN-DARLINGTON
PRECINCT
7.1
Precinct overview
The Redfern-Darlington precinct is central to the success of the Study Area. Centred on Redfern Station,
the precinct is bound by Cleveland Street to the north and consists of a mix of residential and
commercial land uses. The residential neighbourhoods of Darlington and Redfern are characteristic of
turn of the twentieth century terraced housing stock. Abercrombie Street and Redfern Street serve as
the local retail centre for each suburb. The integration of Darlington and Redfern is severely
compromised by the railyards that separate the precinct. This is exacerbated by the one-way arterial
road system of Gibbons and Regent Street east of Redfern Station.
The retail and commercial offering along both Abercrombie and Redfern Streets has seen a resurgence
with the increase in creative industries and ad hoc residential gentrification. This is, however, limited to
these stretches and the north-south thoroughfare of Regent Street/Botany Road still lacks the presence
of a cohesive commercial street.
Between Botany Road and the railyards, the Australian Technology Park (ATP) occupies a significant land
holding, yet lacks integration with the centre of Redfern. The ATP centres on a number of re-purposed
heritage assets, complemented by a number of large floorplate commercial buildings, developed from
the late 1990’s as a destination for technological companies and university expansion. Adjacent Redfern
Station are the twin GCA towers that easily identify the station precinct. Additional heritage assets are
located throughout the precinct but many relate to the Victorian-era railway infrastructure along the
Corridor.
The precinct is well served by rail, with Redfern Station the primary station for University of Sydney
students. The area therefore commands a high footfall along Lawson and Abercrombie streets
throughout the day and year.
7.2
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Precinct employment
11,553
12,760
15,367
18,545
21,149
Precinct population
14,048
14,652
16,419
17,981
19,698
The employment landscape over this time is forecast to change dramatically, with growth expected to be
approximately 83% between 2011 and 2031 (compared to approximately 29% for the Chippendale-Surry
Hills precinct). This aligns with development plans for the precinct. Professional services is forecast to
overtake IT and Public Administration as the precinct’s largest employer. As seen in the ChippendaleSurry Hills precinct, a trend is emerging where professional services and the Finance and Insurances
sector are beginning to locate in these CBD fringe areas given the proximity to the CBD. Industry growth
rates are significant in the precinct. The three industries forecast to grow fastest to 2031 (Table 26) are
forecast to grow by almost 300%. The growth of the Arts and Recreation sector is testament to the area’s
growing attraction to a range of creative uses seeking to locate near the established creative precinct of
Chippendale-Surry Hills.
E MP LOYME N T ( 20 1 1 – 203 1)
2011
Industry
2021
%age of
total jobs
2031
Industry
%age of
total jobs
Industry
%age of
total jobs
Telecommunications
16.3%
Telecommunications
15.4%
Technical Services
17.0%
Safety
15.9%
Technical Services
15.4%
Telecommunications
14.7%
Technical Services
12.8%
Safety
14.0%
Safety
12.1%
Industry
Financial and Insurance Services
297.3%
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Arts and Recreation Services
287.6%
283.5%
7.3
Opportunities
-
Growing creative industries sector. The precinct is beginning to experience spillover from the
Chippendale-Surry Hills precinct with a number of creative industries clustering around the
Carriageworks and Redfern Street.
-
Public transport accessibility. The precinct is well serviced by public transport through Redfern
Station and bus routes and to a lesser extent, MacDonaldtown Station. There is future potential
public transport accessibility proposed through one of two Sydney Metro stations at either
Sydney University or Waterloo. Both of these will have a positive influence on the precinct,
albeit on different sides of the rail corridor.
-
Variety of development scale opportunities. The precinct has a number of potential
development sites and opportunities for potential development, ranging from small infill blocks
in keeping with the current typology, through to strategic sites fringing and bridging the railway
lines.
-
Established urban character and strong community. The precinct has a characteristic built
form and streetscape typology with an established and engaged community. This typology is
similar in scale and composition to those in the Chippendale-Surry Hills precinct.
-
Strong heritage assets. Throughout the precinct, but predominantely around the Redfern
Station and the railway corridor, are a number of identifiable heritage assets. These include the
Carriageworks, old NSW Railway building on Wilson Street, Redfern Station buildings, terrace
rows and numerous current or former railway buildings.
-
Established local retail centres. A number of local retail strips criss-cross the precinct.
Abercrombie and Redfern Streets service both side of the corridor while Botany Road has
potential to expand small business uses away from Redfern Station and towards the ATP.
-
University of Sydney presence. The eastern section of the University of sydney campus extends
into the precinct. Redfern Station is the primary means of public transport for many students
and a well-established route along Lawson and Abercrombie Streets provides regular
activation.
Challenges
-
Split north-south and east-west by dominant arterial roads. Cleveland Street and Regent
Street divide the precinct into quadrants. These divisions impede pedestrian flows throughout
the precinct and into the Chippendale-Surry Hills precinct and limit business corridor expansion
potential. The dominance of cars deter pedestrian use and impede develoment of smaller
customer-focused businesses along their length.
-
Integration of Australian Technology Park. The ATP has developed over nearly 20 years yet is
still constrained by its access to Redfern Station and its integration with the wider precinct. Its
remaining sites provide a large amount of unrealised floorspace potential, however it has been
affected by changes to its vision and governance structure.
-
Optimising the value of Redfern Station. Although one of Sydney’s busiest stations, the
primary entrance to Redfern Station is awkwardly aligned and does not create a strong sense of
arrival. Realignment could be undertaken to better position it for better accessibility, local
business generation and commercial and residential development potential.
-
Loss of commercial floorspace to residential. Retaining the ability for the precinct’s B2 and B4zoned land to provide commercial operations and facilitate agglomeration is hindered by the
conversion to residential use.
-
demand for accessibility will continue, both for public transport and prvate vehicle.s With the
7.4
Future demand
The Redfern-Darlington Precinct will absorb the expected overflow of creative industries from the
Chippendale-Surry Hills Precinct. Higher rents and low vacancy rates in that precinct are forcing some
smaller industries to seek new locations, whilst still locating near the CBD. There is also expected
demand from the commercial office market with unrealised potential in the ATP. This is the likely
location for the forecast 297% growth in the Financial and Insurance sectors outlined in Table 26. The
growth of the creative industries by 60% between 2006 and 2012 in the Study Area is partially contained
in this precinct and demand is forecast to continue. A decline in manufacturing offers the possibility of
flexible former industrial floorspace being ‘freed-up’ for Creative industries to move into as this is an
identity that many creative organisations align with. Additionally, pending future governance
arrangements, the precinct may experience a growing demand for education and health floorspace.
7.5
`Development vision
To become Australia’s premier research, knowledge and creative precinct
7.6
First horizon: Expand the opportunities for creative business activity
With the continuing demand for floorspace in the Chippendale-Surry Hills precinct, organisations are
increasingly migrating south to the Redfern-Darlington Precinct. The precinct has a stronger residential
character than Chippendale-Surry Hills and a strong collection of heritage assets. Increasing
opportunities to expand commercial floorspace within the precinct using existing building stock can build
a critical mass of employment without significant development.
1.
Consider a range of planning and economic levers to strengthen existing and growing clusters
Opportunities for expanding or encouraging office and business infill in residential areas should
be purused.
-
2.
Target a creative use for the NSW Railway building on Wilson Street through innovative leasing
arrangements
The NSW Railway building on Wilson Street could be a hub and icon for the precinct, with an
appropriate restoration and tenant.
-
3.
4.
This may require reviewing usecontrols ( for example allowing more employment uses,
modifying car parking requirements etc) or urban design initiatives to catalyse private
investment. The expansion of the current B4 zoning towards Redfern Station around Lawson
and Abercrombie Streets should be considered.
One option would be to offer a long term, low cost lease on the condition the building is
restored, targeting education and/or creative uses (e.g. Sydney University, well-endowed art
foundations such as the Peggy Guggenheim foundation etc). These and other leasing
innovations should be considered.
Establish a governance framework across the precinct to support business development, for
example a Business Improvement District (BID) or similar mechanism
The aim here is to ensure the various and key stakeholders and property owners are working
towards a common vision. It is arguable that the initial 1996 high tech, university and research
based economic development vision for the ATP was never properly fulfilled. A more exciting
opportunity perhaps exists to pursue an innovation and creative precinct vision by establishing
an enduring governance framework across the broader precinct.
-
The Melbourne University ‘Carlton Connect Initiative’ may provide some lessons. It is proposed
to create Australia’s premier innovation precinct in a series of buildings and spaces occupied by
large businesses, research centres, entrepreneurs and small startups adjacent to the Parkville
campus of the University and incorporating a redeveloped Royal Women’s Hospital site.
-
Another alternative is to create a Business Improvement District (BID). This would apply a small
levy on all business ratepayers (or seek a contribution where rates are not payable) across the
precinct including the University, Carriageworks and the ATP. A board drawn from contributors
would be established and it could be responsible for establishing a strategic development plan
to guide spending, The BID would coordinate spending in partnership with the City of Sydney
to prioritise works aimed at short and medium-term improvements. A BID can also work as a
coordinated voice for independent local businesses in response to longer-term development of
the precinct, in particular around Redfern Station.
Engage in discussions with possible creative industries anchor tenants
Targeted approaches to identified potential tenants such as Google or creative industry
‘incubator hubs’ would highlight barriers to entry for those organisations locating in the Study
Area. A coordinated approach by UrbanGrowth and City of Sydney, as well as potential privatesector or institutional stakeholders (such as Universities) would be appropriate.
5.
Prepare prospectus to market the precinct and potential development sites
A prospectus to identified anchor tenants would provide an overview of the area’s key
attributes and development timeline. It would be used to showcase potential sites and engage
targeted organisations in outlining requirements for their operations.
6.
Explore the provision of additional Key Worker accommodation to the west of Carriageworks as
part of a mixed-tenure residential development.
This part of the Study Area is within ten minutes walking to Royal Prince Alfred Hospital.
Provision of dedicated accomodation for nurses and other employees can be delivered through
a partnership arrangement with the hospital and help decrease travel times and associated
transport costs for employees commuting to the hospital. These targeted housing types can be
part of a residential development that includes public and private housing.
Case Study: Campus London, Shoreditch
A model developing in cities is the entrepreneurial incubator model championed by high value
innovation companies such as Google. Google’s Campus London is a specialised start-up ‘incubator’
located in the city’s tech hub centred around Shoreditch in the city’s east. Developments such as
Campus London and others are a hybrid of education and innovation. With the investment of a primary
backer, they support start-ups and individuals working in innovative fields and support them with
networks and resources, as well as subsidised rates. They also offer a number of training courses open to
the public, geared towards fostering idea generation. They are located within areas where there is a high
proportion of creative development, available land and good transport accessibility. The nature of those
working within these campuses is that they require 24-hour access. Therefore, positioning near stations
such as Redfern or Central stations would help to provide such accessibility.
FI G URE 1 7.
CA MP U S LON DON 2 01 3 RE V IE W IN FO G RA PHI C
Source: http://techcrunch.com/2013/12/02/after-20-months-googles-campus-london-hub-has-22000-members-so-where-next/
Second horizon: Develop Redfern Station as the connectivity hub for the precinct
In order for the precinct (and ATP in particular) to fully benefit from its location and accessibility,
significant upgrades to Redfern Station are required. These will help to increase surrounding land values,
making new development more feasible, as well as provide a more attractive proposition to larger
organisations looking to locate here.
7.
8.
Provide a southern bridge connecting the ATP with Darlington including a new entry to Redfern
Station
Connecting the ATP with Darlington and the University should be a key aim of any
redevelopment in the area. Steps to achieve this might involve:
Identifying development sites for commercial development leases on the ATP and
Darlington sides of the rail line, including a minimum employment element and
affordable or student housing.
o
Identifying the minimum elements of a southern connection and bridge for
pedestrians and cyclists including a major new entrance to Redfern station.
o
Offering the design and development ‘package’ via expression of interest to the
market might provide development sites at a sub-market rate but require the delivery
of the gantry as part of development conditions.
o
Innovations to generate a revenue stream to service development and construction
costs may be considered. Options might include a surcharge on Redfern station
passenger traffic (for example 10-20 cents per entrance and exit), an infrastructure
contribution requirement for nearby development (similar to the UK’s Community
Infrastructure Levy) or a public-private partnership with private sector-led
development at either end of the bridge.
Redevelop Redfern Station with a mixed-use development above the platforms
To fund the delivery of a major Redfern station upgrade, the airspace development rights
could be sold to a developer with approval of the development conditional upon the
redvelopment of the station.
-
9.
o
This station redevelopment could be done in conjucntion with the identified development
opportunity in Action 7.
Explore opportunities within the ATP or potential new floorspace around Redfern Station for
research facilities in partnership with RPA
RPA is a leading teaching and research hospital in Sydney. In light of trends in the health
industry, the future owners or managers of the ATP (and potentially floorspace as part of an
future station redevelopment) could work with RPA to provide research biomedical facilities.
This could be delivered as a joint venture with private health organisations given the area’s
proximity to the hospital, unviersity and CBD.
Third horizon: Create a public transport, cycling and pedestrian connected network of
activities from Sydney University to Waterloo
To truly integrate the Study Area, this precinct’s network should extend beyond its and the Study Area’s
boundaries. Connectivity should take multiple forms. It should ensure that development is suited to the
future demographic demands of the Study Area and is physically connected through sustainable
transport options.
10. The north-south rail corridors (through Redfern and Waterloo) should be crossed by a highly
defined ‘liveable green network’ that prioritises pedestrian and cycle connections from
Waterloo, through Redfern to Darlington and beyond to the University and Victoria Park
As the precinct and Study Area’s population grows, many new residents will be employed in or
near the CBD. Pedestrian and cycle connections through the precinct should connect the
developing residential communities of Waterloo and Green Square to Redfern and through to
the CBD.
11. Plan for the future restoration of a two way system using Botany Road and Gibbons Street with
the objective of returning Botany Road to a functioning main street for the wider precinct and
better integrating the ATP into Redfern
Including a high quality public transport corridor – a surface connection from Green Square to
Central and the CBD (possibly along Gibbons Street to allow Botany Road to be calmed). This
would further improve east-west connections from Redfern to Redfern Station.
-
Review planning controls following the identification of potential development opportunities
in Botany Road, Alexandria.
12. Plan for a further southern connection across the rail land
A new bridge at the southern end of Redfern Station could ultimately be supplemented by a
more southerly crossing which would directly connect the university to the ATP.
8
8.1
WATERLOO PRECINCT
Precinct overview
The Waterloo precinct is predominantly residential with several public housing estates east of the
railway yards in Waterloo. The building stock varies significantly, with a mix of mid-century residential
towers, early twentieth century working terraces and modern apartments.
The precinct focuses towards Botany Road to some degree, however the road does not act well as a
central focal point given its arterial quality and the development of bulky goods and semi-industrial uses
towards the southern part of the precinct.
The precinct is in close proximity to Alexandria’s employment lands and north of the currently underconstruction Green Square Town Centre. The precinct’s predominantly residential character acts as a
buffer between the two growing commercial centres of Redfern and Green Square.
The precinct has been identified as a potential location for an additional Sydney Metro station between
Central Station and Sydenham.
8.2
2011
Precinct employment
Precinct population
2016
2021
2026
2031
3,617
3,699
3,827
3,979
4,141
10,224
10,532
11,815
12,831
13,038
The precinct’s high proportion of public housing and proximity to the City of Sydney’s employment lands
is reflected in the clear distinction between growth industries in this precincts versus others in the Study
Area. Although Professional Services accounts for 10% of jobs in the precinct (Table 28), Construction
and Social Assistance jobs are forecast to grow the most between 2011 and 2031 (Table 29). Retail is also
forecast to grow significantly, highlighting the lack of a significant commercial centre within the precinct.
E MP LOYME N T ( 20 1 1 – 203 1)
2011
Industry
2021
%age of
total jobs
2031
Industry
%age of
total jobs
Industry
%age of
total jobs
Total Manufacturing
11.4%
Retail Trade
10.5%
Health Care and Social
Assistance
11.0%
Retail Trade
10.0%
Health Care and Social
Assistance
10.4%
Retail Trade
10.9%
Technical Services
10.0%
Technical Services
10.0%
Technical Services
10.3%
Industry
Health Care and Social Assistance
36.0%
Construction
Retail Trade
32.5%
24.6%
8.3
Opportunities
-
Significant public housing assets. Current government landholdings through public housing
estates provide strong development potential. These have the ability to increase the amount of
affordable housing provided in inner-city areas and increase housing stock in established
communities.
-
Possibility of creating finer grain blocks. Breaking up these blocks through improved
pedestrian and road access can increase the potential for local retail and commercial uses along
key pedestrian thoroughfares.
-
Possible Sydney Metro station at Waterloo. Should this option go ahead, it has the potential to
increase job accessibility to an inner-city demographic in an area with relatively low public
transport accessibility. Such a development would facilitate the establishment of local shops,
restaurants and other businesses within a station precinct.
Challenges
-
Increasing economic development opportunities. This precinct has a strong residential land
use, with few immediate economic uses. The challenge is to link this community with an
established economic centre by Increasing links either towards Redfern or south the Green
Square.
-
Creating a centre to the precinct. The scattered nature of the precinct’s public housing and the
introspective nature of the adjoining developments in Zetland mean that the precinct does not
have an identifiable commercial centre.
8.4
Future demand
The Waterloo Precinct will primarily see demand for intensification of residential development.
Alongside development opportunities within public housing stock, the potential Sydney Metro station at
Waterloo will provide floorspace for locally-serving retail and small scale population-driven commercial
floorspace.
8.5
Development vision
To increase housing diversity and residential density while providing appropriate centrally-located,
local retail and commercial services and employment opportunity.
8.6
First horizon: Identify opportunities for potential commercial expansion
1.
Review zoning and planning controls to allow for more compatible employment uses in
residential areas
Expanding opportunities for office and business infill in residential areas. This will require
reviewing controls and identifying opportunities, for example allowing more employment uses
or modifying car parking requirements.
2.
Establish online marketplace to advertise and sub-let vacant ground floor floorspace along
Botany Road
A website or network that matches people seeking retail and commercial floorspace for
temporary uses to vacant floorspace along Botany Road. This can be done as a part of the City
of Sydney’s support for creative uses or through a third-party charity or organsiation. Its
purpose is to re-activate this section of Botany Road by encouraging a mix of uses to
temporarily locate along Botany Road in a ‘safe to fail’ environment. This can help to test
successes of future uses along the corridor.
3.
Identify potential development sites along Botany Road
Through a stakeholder and landowner workshop, facilitated by the City of Sydney, potential
development sites can be identified along with their barriers to development. This will help to
tease out future potential for this section of Botany Road and ensure a co-ordinated reponse.
-
Establish a funding mechanism through City of Sydney or surrounding business groups to
subsidise these temporary uses along the Botany Road corridor.
Second horizon: Expand opportunities for local business and skills development
4.
Focus retail and business development along Botany Road and in any new station precinct
The aim should be to grow Botany Road from a semi-industrial strip to a local retail centre and
the main hub for the wider precinct.. Ground floor uses must be protected for retail however
residential shop-top development could be encouraged in any amendments to the
Development Control Plan. In addition, Botany Road and surrounding streets should be the
primary focus for retail and commercial opportunities within the precinct (rather than being
generally dispersed, for example throughout a redeveloped public housing area). A careful
expansion of B2 and B4 zonings in this area will accommodate new commercial floorspace
without dispersing commercial uses or undermining existing activity. Any expansion of B2
zones should be accompanied by public domain improvements and could be funded for
example through development contributions or voluntary planning agreements.
-
If Waterloo is chosen as the additional Sydney Metro Station, then commercial and retail
floorspace should be ecncouraged in and around the station precinct to make best use of the
foot traffic generated by the new station.
5.
Establish a training programme to assist local employment during construction and upon
completion of major development projects in the Study Area.
In anticipation of major development in and around the Study Area, a training programme
could facilitate the alignment of existing local disadvantaged and unemployed residents
residents with construction jobs on the various development projects. This aligns with the
growth in the construction jobs forecast in the precinct.
-
The training programme could extend to providing training and qualifications for unskilled
residents or residents with different skill sets who wish to live and work in the area upon
completion of development. These could include retail and service jobs that will make up a
prtion of the employment mix in future commercial development.
-
Such a programme could be jointly organised by the City of Sydney in partnership with
educational institutions such as TAFE, private training organisations or local charities. Funding
could be sourced through development contributions or Voluntary Planning Agreements
(VPAs) negotiated with development partners. Such an arrangement could, at least in part,
offset other development contributions developers are required to pay.
Third horizon: Build on delivery of Sydney Metro station at Waterloo
6.
Include a new station at Waterloo to facilitate mixed use renewal of the Waterloo housing estate
The Sydney Metro line (as part of a second harbour crossing) could include a new station at
Waterloo.
-
Any associated renewal of public housing should include the dual objectives of:

7.
‘job matching’ new residents with the high value ‘knowledge sector’ employment
opportunities in central Sydney and
 developing skills for existing residents in local construction jobs.
A mixed urban renewal project should also reserve sites for and space for small creative
businesses.
Focus cluster of retail and employment opportunities around proposed Waterloo station
Should the Waterloo Station go ahead, it will generate an increase in land values along the
southern section of Botany road. Mixed use development, building on the current road
corridor zoning, would cluster around the station with provision for retail and commercial
floorspace provision.
9 STUDY AREA
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS
9.1
Scenario development
This report identifies three potential development scenarios for the Study Area. These scenarios are
based on the recommendations made for each precinct in the preceding chapters. They differ through
their mix of horizon projects, with Scenario One considering only Horizon One projects, Scenario Two
considering Horizons One and Two and Scenario Three considering all three horizons. Figure 18
illustrates this method.
FI G URE 1 8.
DE VE LO PME N T S CE N AR I O STR U C T U RE
Scenario One
Scenario Two
Scenario Three
Horizon One
10 yrs
Horizon Two
20 yrs
Horizon Three
30 yrs
Four types of development were considered to be relevant to the future of the Study Area:
Commercial floorspace intensification: Assumes that existing commercial floorspace in the Study Area
that currently provides jobs at a ratio of greater than 25sqm per job is intensified to this ratio.
Commercial floorspace with an employment density greater than 25sqm retains its current density.
Residential conversion: A number of jobs, in particular within the creative industries, are located at
home. There is an opportunity to enable some of this residential floorspace to be converted to
commercial use in either a live-work configuration or as a total conversion. This report assumes that 10
percent of all residential floorspace is converted to commercial. Although an optimistic proportion, this
assumes residential intensification would be undertaken compensate for this loss. This commercial
floorspace is modelled on a floorspace to jobs ratio of 20sqm/job. It also assumes that this conversion
would not happen in the Ultimo-Central Precinct given the higher proportion of apartments.
Achievable strategic development: Certain sites within the Study Area could be developed in the short
to medium term. Nine sites have been considered and their net floorspace increase has assumed a ratio
of 20sqm/job. These site are: Redfern Station and the GCA Towers, North Eveleigh (East), Corner of Hay
and Campbell Streets, Corner of Rawson and Pitt Streets, Regent Street, Corner of Regent and Cleveland
Street (south), Centrelink Building (Redfern Street), Cope Street Carpark and the area around Eveleigh
Street. These are identified on the economic assets map (Figure 15).
Step-change development: Some developments are dependent upon strategic government intervention
or significant surrounding land value increase in order to be delivered. These are long-term propositions
and include: Airspace above Central Station, the Lee Street Bus Depot, Railway airspace north of
Cleveland Street and the Airspace north of Lawson Street. These are identified on the economic assets
map (Figure 15).
In both the ‘achievable strategic development’ and ‘step-change development’ typologies, the
development potential was guided by the built form that would likely support the identified uses. The
focus on creative industries and innovation tends to locate in lower rise built form similar to those in
Pyrmont-Ultimo (such as the Google headquarters). This typology was used to define floorspace
potential.
When the potential development opportunities identified with the principles are converted to
floorspace figures, they provide three different scenarios of increasing floorspace potential. This increase
is due to each subsequent scenario assuming more ambitious development opportunities throughout
the Study Area.
9.2
The term agglomeration is used in spatial economics to describe the benefits which flow to firms from
locating in areas which have a higher density of economic activity. Macroeconomic theory describes
agglomeration as part of ‘economies of scale and scope’.
The competitive marketplace also presents a firm with many potential clients, freeing it from reliance on
a single client. This enables firms to manage a range of business risks. The automotive manufacturing
supply chain provides examples of the dangers of poor diversification of risk for firms. The closure of the
automotive assembly plant generally results in the closure of component manufacturers.
Agglomeration also provides opportunities for firms to access a deep and diverse pool of skilled labour.
With so many firms located together there will be a high level of technological / knowledge transfer
between firms, which will help bolster innovation. This innovation is vital for firms to survive in a very
competitive market place. Much of the knowledge transfer is provided by skilled labour moving between
firms.
In order to determine the potential agglomeration benefits of these scenarios, an indicative delivery
timeframe has been identified of ten years for each horizon. Therefore, in Scenario Three, development
is expected to take place over thirty years. In practice it is difficult to outline specific delivery timeframes.
This is because each horizon is dependent upon the preceding horizons to lay the foundation through
land value uplift, critical mass of targeted activities and so on. For the purposes of forecasting
agglomeration benefits, however, a ten year period per horizon has been applied.
9.3
Scenario One
Summary
Scenario One consists of development opportunities that build on policy changes and development
incentives. These aim to build a critical mass of employment floorspace throughout the Study Area in
order to capture some of the smaller creative industries and start-ups seeking to locate in the
Chippendale-Surry Hills and Redfern-Darlington precincts. This level of development assumes that ten
percent of residential dwellings in all but the Ultimo-Central Precinct turn over to commercial uses.
Throughout the Study Area, Horizon One principles also seek to intensify the use of existing commercial
floorspace in line with trends witnessed in the CBD and globally. In this development strategy, jobs can
be increased without the need for additional floorspace.
Floorspace and job potential
Scenario One suggests that there is up to 192,000 sqm of additional floorspace across the Study Area.
This consists of floorspace that could be gained if residential floorspace was more flexibly used to
accommodate live-work practices in existing residences. It assumes that Ultimo-Central’s high density
residential developments are not suited to this type of use and have therefore been excluded.
TA BLE 30 . SCE N A RIO 1 : N E T AD DI T ION AL F LO ORSPACE ( SQ M ) AN D J O B S BY PRE C IN C T
Precinct
Employment intensification
f/space
Residential conversion
jobs
f/space
Totals
jobs
f/space
jobs
5,689
Ultimo-Central
-
5,689
-
-
-
-
3,117
53,342
2,667
53,342
5,784
Redfern-Darlington
-
3,024
77,368
3,868
77,368
6,893
3,083
21,448
Waterloo
-
-
61,652
3,083
61,652
Total
-
11,830
192,361
9,618
192,361
Under a Scenario One development approach, it would generate an additional $47.4 million by 2031 and
$200.5 million by 2051.
TA BLE 31 . AG GLOME RATI ON B E N E F I T S O F S CE NA R IO ONE
Year
Scenario One ($ m)
2021
$8.2
2031
$47.4
2041
$122.2
2051
$200.5
9.4
Scenario Two
Summary
Scenario Two builds on the assumed development within Scenario One. In addition, it identifies
opportunities for a range of infill development across the precincts (with the exception of the
residential-focused Waterloo precinct). These development range in size and capacity, from
opportunistic small development sites to more strategic projects such as the redevelopment of Redfern
Station.
Scenario Two suggests that there is approximately 381,000 sqm of additional floorspace across the Study
Area. Building on the Scenario One floorspace potential, it also includes significant development in and
around Redfern Station as well as potential capacity increases at the southern end of the CBD on
selected sites.
TA BLE 32 . SCE N A R IO 2 : N E T AD DI T ION AL F LO ORSPACE ( SQ M ) AN D J O B S BY PRE C IN C T
Employment
intensification
Precinct
Infill development
Totals
f/space
jobs
f/space
jobs
f/space
jobs
f/space
jobs
Ultimo-Central
-
5,689
-
-
78,000
3,900
78,000
9,589
ChippendaleSurry Hills
-
3,117
53,342
2,667
3,648
182
56,990
5,966
RedfernDarlington
-
3,024
77,368
3,868
107,040
4,272
184,408
11,165
Waterloo
-
-
61,652
3,083
-
-
61,652
3,083
Total
-
11,830
192,361
9,618
188,688
8,354
381,049
29,802
Under a Scenario Two development approach, it would generate an additional $49.3 million by 2031 and
$208.9 million by 2051.
TA BLE 33 . AG GLOME RATI ON B E N E F I T S O F S CE NA R IO T WO
Year
Scenario One ($ m)
2021
$8.6
2031
$49.3
2041
$127.3
2051
$208.9
9.5
Scenario Three
Summary
The final scenario furthers the development proposed in Scenario Two, increasing development
opportunities around Redfern Station driven by the need to increase accessibility from the ATP westward
towards the Carriageworks and Sydney University. Additionally, it envisages transformative development
above Central Station’s platforms and railyards.
The inclusion of significant and transformative development on and around Central Station could
contribute an additional 579,000sqm of commercial floorspace.
TA BLE 34 . SCE N A RIO 3 : N E T AD DI T ION AL F LO ORSPACE ( S Q M ) AN D J OB S BY PRE C IN C T
Employment
intensification
Precinct
Residential
conversion
Large-scale
development
Infill development
Totals
f/space
jobs
f/space
jobs
f/space
jobs
f/space
jobs
f/space
jobs
UltimoCentral
-
5,689
-
-
78,000
3,900
140,880
7,044
228,000
17,089
ChippendaleSurry Hills
-
3,117
53,342
2,667
3,648
182
43,392
2,170
100,382
8,136
RedfernDarlington
-
3,024
77,368
3,868
4,272
14,400
720
198,808
11,885
Waterloo
-
-
61,652
3,083
-
-
-
-
61,652
3,083
Total
-
11,830
192,361
9,618
188,688
8,354
198,672
9,934
588,841
40,192
107,040
Under a Scenario Three development approach, it would generate an additional $69.3 million by 2031
and $293.6 million by 2051.
TA BLE 35 . AG GLOME RATI ON B E N E F I T S O F S CE NA R IO TH RE E
Year
Scenario One ($ m)
2021
$12.1
2031
$69.3
2041
$178.8
2051
$293.6
9.6
Floorspace and job comparisons
Table 36 provides a summary of the potential commercial floorspace quantum for each Scenario.
TA BLE 36 . P OTE N TI AL N E T COM ME R CIA L FLOO RSPACE BY P RE C IN C T
Precinct
Ultimo-Central
Redfern-Darlington
Waterloo
Total
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
53,342
77,368
61,652
78,000
56,990
184,408
61,652
228,000
100,382
198,808
61,652
192,361
381,049
588,841
Table 37 identifies the conversion of this floorspace to job numbers by precinct for each of the scenarios.
As identified above, there is no single floorspace to jobs ratio used. The conversions in Table 37 are a
combination of various development types and therefore various floorspace to job ratios.
TA BLE 37 . P OTE N TI AL N E T N E W JO B S BY PRE C I N C T
Precinct
Scenario 1
Ultimo-Central
Redfern-Darlington
Waterloo
Total
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
5,689
5,784
6,893
3,083
9,589
5,966
11,165
3,083
17,089
8,136
11,885
3,083
21,448
29,802
40,192
It is important to note that the floorspace quantum for each scenario makes a number of assumptions
with regards to the amount of potential net new floorspace a site may deliver. This report does not
undertake feasibility appraisal of these developments, nor does it undertake built form assessment of
individual sites. Rather, it assesses surrounding building heights, site area coverage and existing uses to
determine an approximate net additional floorspace figure.
The zoning principles outlined under Horizon One in several of the precincts assume that a proportion of
floorspace within existing residential developments could make way for commercial development. This
could either be through encouraging live-work arrangement for small businesses whilst retaining
residential uses, or a replacement of residential uses for commercial uses. Again, this does not consider
feasibility, nor does it consider the potential impact on residential demand within the Study Area and
more broadly. Rather, it provide an indication of the potential floorspace available if precincts within the
Study Area were to develop in a more mixed-use environment, whilst retaining the prevailing urban
character that they currently have.
A breakdown of each precinct’s net additional floorspace and net new jobs by precinct and travel zone is
included in Appendix 2.
9.7
Agglomeration comparisons
Each of the three development scenarios provides a different amount of floorspace and jobs. The
agglomeration benefits across the three scenarios differ, with Scenario One creating an additional $93.6
million above Scenario One by 2051. This uses a Net Present Value (NPV) rate of 7%.
TA BLE 38 . CO MPAR IS ON OF AG G LO ME RAT ION BE NE FI TS
Year
Scenario One ($m)
Scenario Two ($m)
Scenario Three ($m)
2021
$8.2
$8.6
$12.1
2031
$47.4
$49.3
$69.3
2041
$122.2
$127.3
$178.8
2051
$200.5
$208.9
$293.6
Figure 1 9 compares the relative value increases each scenario would generate between 2016 and 2051.
The increase after ten to fifteen years is when larger scale development such as Redfern Station is likely
to be realised.
FI G URE 1 9.
AG GLOME RATI ON VA LUE COM PA RI SON BY SCE N A RIO
$350.00
Value increase ($m)
$300.00
$250.00
$200.00
Scenario 3 timeframes
$150.00
$100.00
$50.00
2050
2048
2046
2044
2042
2040
2038
2036
2034
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
$-
Years
9.8
Comparison to UrbanGrowth Scenarios
As part of UrbanGrowth’s own work, they have developed three scenarios with different degrees of
development. As Table 39 identifies, UrbanGrowth’s low scenario estimates more floorspace but fewer
jobs than SGS’s Scenario One. UrbanGrowth’s higher floorspace is likely due to the consideration that
major development will happen under this scenario, just at lower levels. SGS’s Scenario One only
considers residential infill and intensification of existing commercial floorspace. The discrepancy in job
numbers is due to the lower floorspace to job ratio used by SGS. Modelling undertaken in this report
uses a range of 20-25 sqm per job whereas UrbanGrowth’s figures use an average of 20 sqm per job.
SGS’s floorspace to job ratio is based upon observed floorspace ratios and market reports that identify a
contraction from ‘traditional’ rates.
TA BLE 39 . FLOO RSPACE AN D J O BS COM PA RI SON – UR BAN G ROW TH AND S G S
SCE N A RI OS
Scenario
(UrbanGrowth / SGS)
UrbanGrowth
GFA
UrbanGowth
jobs
Average
floorspace to
job ratio
(sqm)
SGS GFA
SGS jobs
Average
floorspace to
job ratio
(sqm)*
Low Scenario /
Scenario One
286,990
14,349
20
192,361
21,448
9
Medium Scenario /
Scenario Two
392,070
19,603
20
381,049
29,802
13
High Scenario /
503,106
25,155
20
588,841
40,192
Scenario Three
* This is not an accurate reflection of the floorspace to jobs ratio due to different development methods being
used to provide a total floorspace and jobs figure. This is explained in Appendix 4.
15
UrbanGrowth’s medium scenario more closely aligns with SGS’s Scenario Two. The floorspace
discrepancy is much smaller (UrbanGrowth with 392,000sqm and SGS with 381,000sqm). This is likely
due to more significant development opportunities being factored into SGS’s scenario. Again, there is a
job discrepancy and again a higher floorspace to jobs ratio is used.
SGS’s Scenario Three forecasts more floorspace than UrbanGrowth’s High scenario. This is due to the
indicative floorspace quantum assumed on the development of Central Station, however SGS’s quantum
is aspirational.
As highlighted in Table 39, if a floorspace to jobs ratio is calculated directly from the table, the SGS
figures report very low ratios, ranging from 9 to 15 sqm per job. This is due to some of the jobs being
created in Horizon One developments occurring on existing commercial floorspace through
intensification of job densities. When combined with the residential conversion development type
(outlined in Section 9.1), which provides both floorspace and jobs, it appears that a high number of new
jobs are being created on a limited amount of new floorspace. In practice, over 50% of these new jobs
would be created in existing commercial developments and so would not impact on the floorspace to
jobs ratios of new developments. This methodology is explained further in Appendix 4. The range used
by SGS to calculate net new jobs ranges from 20 to 25 sqm per job and is summarised in Appendix 2.
10 SUMMARY
10.1
Summary of key issues
The Central to Eveleigh Study Area has the potential to develop its distinctive identity by encouraging
development that suits patterns of industry demand and aligns with its urban form. This report
addresses a number of issues regarding land use demand and potential growth opportunities.
The precinct is a point of convergence for multiple uses. On the fringe of the CBD, close to universities,
good public transport accessibility and proximity to inner city employment lands, the Study Area has a
number of characteristics and assets that can guide its economic and physical development.
The Central to Eveleigh Study Area is more than an extension of the CBD. This range of activities,
coupled with the significant separation by rail and road infrastructure and competition from other
centres, means that the Study Area should focus on uses it can attract that no other centre can.
The creative and innovation industries are growing in the area. Attracted to the area’s CBD proximity
and distinctive urban character, the Study Area is becoming Sydney’s premier creative and innovation
precinct. These industries are often attracted to urban character and particular built form typologies, not
simply proximity opportunities.
The ATP is a strategic asset for the study area to build on. Although currently under-utilised, the ATP is
well placed to consolidate its role as the strategic commercial centre for the Study Area, due to its large
floorplate offering and proximity to Redfern Station. In order to achieve this, it needs a critical mass of
complementary commercial uses such as supporting retail and a wider mix of industries along with
better integration to Redfern Station and the University of Sydney and RPA.
The link to Universities is strong. With Sydney University and UTS both expanding and Redfern Station
being the primary station for a number of students, the Study Area’s link with the university sector is
strong. This is furthered by the amount of student accommodation developing in the Study Area.
The future of the Sydney Metro station location is uncertain. Both Waterloo and the University of
Sydney have been identified as potential station locations. Both will influence the Study Area in different
ways, with Waterloo being a catalyst for greater intensification of land uses while Sydney University may
lessen demand and footfall through Redfern.
Development will occur through numerous channels. The complexity, scale and number of stakeholders
in the Study Area mean that a single delivery mechanism will not be appropriate for all developments.
Instead, a range of partnerships are likely to deliver long-term change. These include: Partnerships
between institutions (RPA and University of Sydney); Joint venture/Public Private Partnerships
(UrbanGrowth and development partners); and inter-government partnerships such as between the City
of Sydney and various State government agencies.
10.2
Summary of actions and development scenarios
The report also identifies a number of actions that would help to stimulate economic development
throughout the Study Area. These actions manifest in development scenarios for how growth could
occur.
There is no single governance solution. No single department organisation has control of the Study
Area. Different economic development actions require different stakeholders in order to be
implemented. These vary from local government teams through to public-private partnership
opportunities and are driven by the scale and intent of the development opportunities.
CBD expansion should remain in the north of the Study Area. There is opportunity for the Study Area to
accommodate some CBD expansion, however this should be contained in the northernmost precinct and
may include development over Central station.
There are significant development opportunities over railyards. Between Central and Redfern Stations,
there exists significant potential to deliver mixed-use floorspace over the long term. This requires
significant capital investment and government support. Such development would be transformative for
the Study Area and Redfern in particular.
Redevelopment of Redfern Station is catalytic for further development. A redevelopment of Redfern
Station as part of any development proposal will be a catalyst for further investment in the ATP and
Redfern’s relationship with the University of Sydney.
Commercial floorspace doesn’t need to be concentrated. Not all commercial development needs to be
located in large floorplate developments. Many of the creative industries organisations require only
small spaces and, initially, low rents. Flexibility in floorspace conversion throughout residential areas
would encourage commercial floorspace throughout the Study Area. Organisations seeking premium
floorspace may not always be attracted to areas of greater mix, preferring core commercial precincts,
however industries suited to the Study Area are regularly found in areas of greater land use diversity.
Local character should be protected. Proximity to the CBD is not the only driver of employment growth
in the Study Area. Many organisations are attracted to the character of the different precincts and
protection of this is important in attracting future creative industry investment.
Strategic decisions should have government backing. Development of significant sites such as Central
and Redfern Stations requires strategic and financial support from the government. The agglomeration
benefits of development are demonstrated, but require commitment to deliver strategically located
assets in order to achieve them.
Development scenarios depend on the degree of ambition and public sector support. Lower-scale
development can be delivered through zoning and infill development flexibility. In order to achieve a
higher floorspace quantum, government support for the development of major infrastructure (in
particular Redfern Station) is necessary.
Take a long-term approach. In order to justify second and third horizon development, a critical mass of
employment needs to be developed in the Study Area. This takes time and does not necessarily translate
into large floorplate developments in the initial stages.
APPENDIX 1: CREATIVE
INDUSTRY DEFINITION
‘Creative industries’ is often used inter-changeably as a loosely-defined term to capture a number of
professions. SGS has sought to categorise these industries by the 4-digit ANZSIC category in order to
provide structure to the definition and assist in forecasting growth. The broad definition of ‘Creative
Industries’ used in this report contains the following industry classifications:
5622 Cable and Other Subscription Broadcasting
5600 Broadcasting (except Internet), nfd
1612 Printing Support Services
5413 Book Publishing
7000 Computer System Design and Related Services
5500 Motion Picture and Sound Recording Activities, nfd
J000 Information Media and Telecommunications, nfd
5420 Software Publishing
5411 Newspaper Publishing
9000 Creative and Performing Arts Activities, nfd
5620 Television Broadcasting, nfd
5510 Motion Picture and Video Activities, nfd
5700 Internet Publishing and Broadcasting
6940 Advertising Services
5412 Magazine and Other Periodical Publishing
5400 Publishing (except Internet and Music Publishing), nfd
2591 Jewellery and Silverware Manufacturing
5410 Newspaper, Periodical, Book and Directory Publishing, nfd
5621 Free-to-Air Television Broadcasting
9001 Performing Arts Operation
5610 Radio Broadcasting
5514 Post-Production Services and Other Motion Picture and Video Activities
5511 Motion Picture and Video Production
6921 Architectural Services
6924 Other Specialised Design Services
9002 Creative Artists, Musicians, Writers and Performers
6991 Professional Photographic Services
APPENDIX 2: PRECINCT
DEVELOPMENT TABLE
Scenario 1
Scenarios
>>
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Precinct
Horizons
>>
Summary
TZ
Ultimo-Central
Ultimo-Central
Ultimo-Central
Ultimo-Central
Ultimo-Central
Ultimo-Central
Ultimo-Central
Ultimo-Central
Ultimo-Central
Ultimo-Central
Ultimo-Central
Ultimo-Central
Ultimo-Central
Ultimo-Central
Ultimo-Central
Ultimo-Central
Ultimo-Central
Ultimo-Central
Ultimo-Central
Ultimo-Central
Ultimo-Central
Ultimo-Central
Ultimo-Central
Ultimo-Central
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
157
159
160
First Horizon (10 years)
Employment
intensification
Net
additional
floorspace
-
Net new
jobs
847
121
402
403
39
13
34
216
10
61
2,988
554
Net
additional
floorspace
-
Net new
jobs
-
Second Horizon (20 years
Third Horizon (30 years)
Infill development
Large-scale development
Net
additional
floorspace
33,600
44,400
-
Net new
jobs
1,680
2,220
-
Net
additional
floorspace
150,000
-
Totals
Net new
jobs
Total new
floorspace (sqm)
Net new jobs
7,500
-
33,600
44,400
150,000
-
847
121
402
403
39
1,680
13
34
216
2,220
10
61
7,500
2,988
554
Redfern-Darlington
Redfern-Darlington
Redfern-Darlington
Redfern-Darlington
Redfern-Darlington
Redfern-Darlington
Redfern-Darlington
Redfern-Darlington
Redfern-Darlington
Redfern-Darlington
Redfern-Darlington
Redfern-Darlington
Redfern-Darlington
Redfern-Darlington
Redfern-Darlington
Redfern-Darlington
Waterloo
Waterloo
Waterloo
Waterloo
Waterloo
Waterloo
192
193
194
195
197
198
200
201
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
215
216
217
218
219
222
223
239
240
243
244
246
254
256
257
258
270
271
-
272
129
180
57
459
71
37
595
705
612
261
195
1
87
459
268
195
211
174
727
309
77
21
38
11,830
1,448
6,087
3,644
1,833
6,233
36
14,435
2,530
13,659
3,436
3,859
3,544
11,717
5,069
6,616
461
1,593
8,036
9,224
8
2,389
6,759
5,309
2,396
10,388
4,081
8,253
8,422
10,970
18,119
11,808
192,361
72
304
182
92
312
2
722
127
683
172
193
177
586
253
331
23
80
402
461
0
119
338
265
120
519
204
413
421
548
906
590
9,618
3,648
25,632
1,200
2,640
28,128
45,600
3,840
188,688
182
1,282
60
132
326
2,280
192
8,354
43,392
14,400
207,792
2,170
720
10,390
1,448
6,087
3,644
1,833
6,233
36
14,435
2,530
13,659
43,392
7,084
29,491
4,744
14,357
5,069
49,144
46,061
5,433
8,036
9,224
8
2,389
6,759
5,309
2,396
10,388
4,081
8,253
8,422
10,970
18,119
11,808
588,841
344
433
363
92
312
59
1,180
197
37
1,278
2,874
967
1,736
433
719
341
1,836
2,571
466
613
635
727
119
309
415
287
158
519
204
413
421
548
906
590
40,192
APPENDIX 3:
AGGLOMERATION
MODELLING
Theoretical Underpinnings
The term agglomeration is used in spatial economics to describe the benefits which flow to firms from
locating in areas which have a higher density of economic activity. Macroeconomic theory describes
agglomeration as part of ‘economies of scale and scope’.
The competitive marketplace also presents a firm with many potential clients, freeing it from reliance on
a single client. This enables firms to manage a range of business risks. The automotive manufacturing
supply chain provides examples of the dangers of poor diversification of risk for firms. The closure of the
automotive assembly plant generally results in the closure of component manufacturers.
Agglomeration also provides opportunities for firms to access a deep and diverse pool of skilled labour.
With so many firms located together there will be a high level of technological / knowledge transfer
between firms, which will help bolster innovation. This innovation is vital for firms to survive in a very
competitive market place. Much of the knowledge transfer is provided by skilled labour moving between
firms.
Literature related to agglomeration can be traced back to the work of Marshall (1920). Despite the
passage of a century, this still provides an excellent conceptual analysis of the benefits which firms can
gain by occupying a strategic location. Within this conceptual framework, agglomeration has since been
measured in a number of ways including city population (Aaberg, 1973; Tabuchi, 1986), industry
employment (Nakamura, 1985; Henderson, 1986), the number of industrial plants (Henderson, 2003b)
and ‘effective job density’ (Graham, 2006).
Although all these methods attempt to measure the same basic economic phenomena, there are two
somewhat distinct effects at work. The first is that the larger the city (in terms of population,
employment, or economic production), the higher the labour productivity. The literature often refers to
this as urbanisation. The second is related to the spatial organisation of the city (the ease at which firms
can interact with each other). The literature often refers to this as localisation.
Consider two cities, A and B, each with a population of five million people. Both will gain a labour
productivity premium from their size. However, economic activity in City A is poorly linked while City B
features distinct employment centres which are well integrated via a robust transport network. In this
case the labour productivity in City B is likely to be higher than City A.
Elements of the Agglomeration Modelling
Effective Job Density
A simple measure such as looking at the employment density of an area does not adequately reflect the
phenomenon of agglomeration. A firm in a relatively low-employment area but located on the edge of a
Central Business District (CBD) could potentially capture agglomeration benefits through such proximity.
Thus a measure of agglomeration must “incorporate both proximity and the scale of the economic
activity and …be calculated for very small areas” (Graham, 2006).A travel time matrix (sourced from the
NSW Government’s Strategic Transport Model) shows how long it takes to travel from one zone in the
city to all other zones by both car and public transport. In the analysis presented in this section the travel
times have been converted from the travel zone level to a Statistical Area 2 (SA2) level.
This measure of effective job density (EJD) enables a more ‘real life’ representation of the proximity (in
terms of travel time) component of agglomeration that other more basic measures overlook. That is, a
rational commuter would use the mode of transport which minimises their travel costs including value of
time and any monetary cost.
Estimate the EJD for each zone.
𝑃𝑇 𝑀𝑜𝑑𝑒 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑗 × 𝐸𝑚𝑝𝑗
𝐸𝐽𝐷𝑖 = ∑𝑗 (
𝑃𝑇 𝑇𝑟𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑙 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑖𝑗
+
(1−𝑃𝑇 𝑀𝑜𝑑𝑒 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑗 ) × 𝐸𝑚𝑝𝑗
𝑃𝑉 𝑇𝑟𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑙 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑖𝑗
)
Where:
𝐸𝐽𝐷𝑖 = Effective Job Density for zone i
𝑃𝑇 𝑀𝑜𝑑𝑒 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑗 = per cent of work trips which involve public transport for zone j
𝐸𝑚𝑝𝑗 = number of jobs/employment within zone j
𝑃𝑇 𝑇𝑟𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑙 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑖𝑗 = time it takes to travel on public transport from zone i to zone j
𝑃𝑉 𝑇𝑟𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑙 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑖𝑗 = time it takes to travel by private vehicle from zone i to zone j
Figure 20 presents the EJD pattern for Sydney.
FI G URE 2 0.
E FFE C T IVE JO B D E N S I T Y
Source: SGS Economics & Planning
Labour Productivity
Labour productivity6 is calculated by dividing the Gross value added (GVA) for an industry by the total
number of hours worked in that industry. Gross value added is a measure of economic activity. It is the
sum of all wages and profits generated by economic units within a particular area.
𝐿𝑃𝑖 =
𝐺𝑉𝐴𝑖
𝐻𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠 𝑊𝑜𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑑𝑖
Where: 𝐿𝑃𝑖 is the Labour Productivity for zone i
𝐺𝑉𝐴𝑖 is the Gross Value Added for zone i
𝐻𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠 𝑊𝑜𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑑𝑖 is the number of hours worked for zone i
Figure 21 presents the labour productivity profile for Sydney.
6 Labour productivity is a partial measure of productivity as
changes in GVA could be driven by changes to other factors of
production such as capital. The most comprehensive measure of productivity is known as Multifactor Productivity (MFP). MFP
measures the ratio of growth in GVA to growth in both labour and capital inputs and also represents that part of the change in
GVA that has not been explained by changes in labour and / or capital. However, do to data limitations only labour productivity is
available at the small area level.
FI G URE 2 1.
LA BO UR P RO D U C TI VI T Y
Regression Analysis
The degree to which agglomeration affects labour productivity for each industry is now estimated using
a translog regression where the natural log of labour productivity levels for the respective industry is
regressed against the natural log of effective job density by SA2. The statistical relationship has been
estimated as follows:
log n (ILPi ) = β0 + β1 w log n (EJDi ) + β2 (𝑂𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟i ) + εi
Where:
ILPi is the Industry Labour Productivity for SA2 i
EJDi is the Effective Job Density for SA2 i
Otheri are other industry specific variables7 for each for SA2 i
w is the weighted based on total SA2 i industry GVA and
εi is a zero mean random disturbance.
This statistical analysis results in an estimate of the relationship (elasticity) between EJD and labour
productivity. The elasticity shows how a one unit increase in EJD will impact on labour productivity. The
industry specific elasticity are shown below.
7 Other variables
included in the regression analysis included CBD dummy, port dummy, higher amenity dummy and industrial
mass dummy.
FI G URE 2 2.
IN D U STRY E LA ST IC I T Y
APPENDIX 4: FLOORSPACE TO
JOBS RATIO
METHODOLOGY
There is an apparent discrepancy in floorspace to jobs ratios across SGS’s three development scenarios
identified in Table 39 of Section 9.8. Using a simple calculation of floorspace per job is calculated from
the total floorspace and total job columns in the SGS scenarios, it presents a series of very low ratios,
ranging from 9 sqm per job to 15 sqm per job. The low ratios expressed in Table 39 are a result of the
two development types that make up Horizon One (commercial floorspace intensification and residential
conversion) having distinctly different qualities but being combined for reporting purposes. In the first
development type, the conversion of residential floorspace to commercial adds both jobs and floorspace
to the total figures as new commercial floorspace is being created at the expense of residential
floorspace. This is done at a floorspace to jobs ratio of 20sqm per job.
However, the second development type, commercial intensification, is simply a process of extracting
more jobs out of floorspace that currently has a ratio greater than 25 sqm per job. Increasing the
efficient use of floorspace currently above 25sqm per job would only add jobs to the equation, not
floorspace, as it is occurring on pre-existing commercial floorspace. As such, this equation would return
a ratio of zero sqm per job if net new floorspace per net new job was being calculated. In reality, it is
assuming that across all pre-existing commercial floorspace in the Study Area (except Waterloo Precinct),
current job density would uniformly condense to 25sqm per job where it is currently above this ratio,
thereby increasing efficiency and creating the potential for additional jobs.
When combined, as in Horizon One, and reported as a total figure (as it is in Scenario One), it provides
two separate amounts of net job increases (11,830 and 9,618) but only one lot of floorspace increase
(192,361sqm). 55% of the jobs are therefore not actually occurring on net new floorspace and therefore
should not be included in the calculation of ratios. This is explained in Table 40 and more detail is
provided in Appendix 2.
TA BLE 40 . E XPL AN ATI ON OF J O BS TO F LO ORSPAC E RATI OS : SCE NA RI O ON E
Commercial floorspace intensification
Study Area
total
Floorspace (sqm)
Jobs
Floorspace (sqm)
Residential floorspace conversion
Jobs
%age of net new
jobs occurring on
net new floorspace
0
+ 11,830
+ 192,361
+ 9,618
45%
As each of the three development scenarios uses Horizon One as a base, a simplified calculation of
floorspace to jobs ratio therefore distorts the global jobs to floorspace ratio for each. As more new
floorspace is subsequently added in Scenarios Two and Three, this ‘pulls’ the average back towards the
20-25sqm range used in the calculations (to 13sqm per job under Scenario Two and to 15sqm under
Scenario Three).
It is therefore counter-intuitive to apply a simplified floorspace to jobs ratio to the scenarios as a basis
for comparison to the UrbanGrowth scenarios as has been done in Table 39. For all new floorspace
estimated in the SGS scenarios, it will be delivered at a floorspace to jobs ratio range of between 20 and
25 sqm per job.
Contact us
CANBERRA
Level 6, 39 London Circuit
Canberra ACT 2601
+61 2 6263 5940
sgsact@sgsep.com.au
HOBART
Unit 2, 5 King Street
Bellerive TAS 7018
+61 (0)439 941 934
sgstas@sgsep.com.au
MELBOURNE
Level 5, 171 La Trobe Street
Melbourne VIC 3000
+61 3 8616 0331
sgsvic@sgsep.com.au
SYDNEY
209/50 Holt Street
Surry Hills NSW 2010
+61 2 8307 0121
sgsnsw@sgsep.com.au

An Economic Analysis - August 2015 PDF

Transcription

Similar documents

Know Before You Go Sydney

precinct - Downtown Los Angeles Neighborhood Council

and we found it IN MENDOCINO COUNTY

Key Moves

June

Newsletter Brisbane Trip - Strelley Community School

PDF

How to make a Madame Tussauds wax figure

www.thenoise.com.au www.myspace.com/thenoisestringquartet