Investment Journal - Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland

Transcription

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Investment Journal
March 2016
Featured this Month:
oil outlook: Royal Dutch Shell, Exxon Mobil, iShares Global Energy ETF,
ETF Securities Brent ETF
Stock Watch: CRH, Green REIT, Amazon, Smurfit
Green Effects Fund: Socially Responsible Investing
Investment Fund Focus: Standard Life GARS Fund, BNY Mellon Global Real Return
Standard Life European Smaller Companies Fund, PIMCO GIS Investment Grade Credit Fund
Bond of the Month: BKIR 7.375% AT1 Perpetual Bond
R
Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd (Cantor) is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Cantor Fitzgerald
Ireland Ltd is a member firm of the Irish Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange.
INVESTMENT JOURNAL MARCH 2016
Welcome...
Equities received respite from selling, and in
some cases a greatly welcome relief rally, in
February. In the coming weeks however,
maintenance of that rally will likely hinge, in
large part, on the decisions of the European
Central Bank on March 10th. Current
expectations are for the ECB to increase its monthly asset
purchases by c.€20 billion to €80 billion per month, and to
reduce the deposit rate by a further 10bps. It is important
to note however that given the divergent motivations
within the ECB, there is the ever present risk that President
Mario Draghi is not able to secure agreement for such a
move.
Commodity markets remain at the fore of investor
attention, particularly the volatility seen within the oil
market. This month we examine in more detail methods to
play future moves in the oil price. We also examine
methods to play the gold market, which has returned to
prominence in investors’ mindsets given its diversifying
qualities and in light of the volatility being seen across asset
classes. We also have our regular pieces on stocks to watch,
structured products, and our bond of the month, among
others.
David Donnelly
Senior Investment Analyst
March 2016
Contents
Points of Interest in February
3
oil outlook
5
Stock Watch
CRH, Green REIT, Amazon, Smurfit
8
Green Effects Fund
10
Structured Products
11
EIIS
12
rEIts Update
13
Chart of the Month
14
Investment Fund Focus
16
Bond of the Month
19
Performance Data
20
Core Portfolio 2016
Performance Update
21
Investment Returns
22
Long Term Investment Returns
23
Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland
Bond Returns
24
Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland was formed through the acquisition of Dolmen Stockbrokers in
2012, by leading global financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald. With a proud history of
stockbroking and servicing our private clients in Ireland since 1995, Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland
provides a full suite of investment services, primarily in personalised Share Dealing, Pensions
and Investment Management, Debt Capital Markets, Corporate Finance and Research. We
are recognised as a primary dealer in government bonds. Our clients include private
individuals and corporate entities, financial institutions, investment funds, Credit Unions
and charities.
Cantor Fitzgerald, a leading global financial services group at the forefront of financial and technological innovation has been
a proven and resilient leader for over 65 years. Cantor is a preeminent investment bank serving more than 7,000 institutional
clients around the world, recognised for its strengths in fixed income and equity capital markets.
At Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland we pull together the expertise and experience of Analysts and Investment Professionals from across
three continents. An office network that spans from New York to Hong Kong provides us with a uniquely global perspective on
the investment goals of our clients, which we service through our local offices in Dublin, Cork and Limerick.
2
C A N T O R F I T Z G E R A L D I R E L A N D LT D
A few points of interest in...
February
David Coffey, Senior Portfolio Manager
Negative
interest rates
CoCo Bonds
Formally known as contingent convertible bonds (AT1 securities),
they were created after the financial crisis in order to make banks
safer. They sit somewhere between equity and traditional bonds in
the capital structure of the banks that issue them. The relatively high
interest payments were attractive to investors but these payments
can be suspended by the banks in times of stress and if certain
capital levels are breached, the bonds are converted to equity or
wiped out – it depends on the particular terms of the bond.
European banks had planned to issue some €40bn worth of these
bonds in 2016 but so far, due to the fall in the value of many of these
bonds, there has not been a single issue this year.
There has been lots of talk in recent
weeks about negative interest rates as
Japan surprised the market by delving
into negative territory, albeit only on
new bank reserves resulting from its QE
programme. The Swedes were at it too
and they are in good company with
Switzerland, Denmark and the ECB all in
negative territory. The ECB is expected
to move lower again at its meeting on
10th March and will be under pressure
to hatch a plan that won’t send markets
into another tailspin. These moves are
having a negative impact on the banks
profitability and one wonders how long
it will be before the ordinary retail
customer is impacted (one Swiss bank,
Alternative Bank Schweiz (ABS), has
passed on negative interest rates to its
customers).
The efficacy of negative rates to
stimulate growth in the economy is
being questioned by a lot of
economists and the biggest impact has
been seen in the currency markets
where lower rates have weakened the
underlying currencies.
Bank of England
Latest forecasts back up markets view that rates will not rise in the
UK until late 2017. The one dissenting voice on the committee
looking for a rate rise has rejoined the doves as they voted 9-0 in
favour of keeping rates on hold. Economic growth for this year was
revised down from 2.5% to 2.2% and for 2017 it was revised down
from 2.7% to 2.4%. The inflation target of 2% is not expected to be
reached until the first quarter of 2018. Further easing has not been
ruled out as Mr Carney took a leaf out of the ECB book and said the
BOE “stands ready to take whatever action is needed”.
3
Credit Default Swaps (CDS)
In Brief....
These credit derivatives got a lot of attention during the 2008 financial crisis as some
hedge funds used them as ways to bet against banks. In simple terms, it is like a form
of insurance that can be taken against default on certain fixed income products or
bonds. CDS levels (the cost of insurance) on European banks rose considerably during
the month as banks such as Duetsche Bank and Credit Suisse delivered poor results
and investors rushed to buy protection against falling bond prices.
The “Brexit” referendum was
called for 23rd June. Sterling
fell below the $1.40 level for
the first time since 2009 and
has weakened by about 10%
against the euro since the start
of the year. It is difficult to see
it regaining much strength
ahead of the referendum and
some analysts have suggested
it could fall a lot further if they
opt out of the EU.
Oil
Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to keep production levels on hold in a rare show
of unity between the giant oil producing nations. However, the lack of guidance
on possible production cuts didn’t inspire much confidence as both nations are
currently pumping at near record levels - Saudi produced 10.2m barrels in
January which was the highest January level in 35 years and Russia pumped
10.9m barrels in January. Later comments from the Saudi oil minister seemed to
pour cold water on any agreement involving production cuts. As an aside, Saudi
Arabia burnt through $120bn of reserves in the last two months of 2015 (16%
of the declared total) and S&P cut the outlook on its credit rating to negative.
US stockpiles expanded to 504 million barrels during the month – the highest
level since 1930. Having bottomed at c. $27 in January, Brent Crude has traded
between $30 and $35 in recent weeks.
Financials
Credit Suisse posted its biggest quarterly loss in seven years and the shares
slumped to the lowest level since 1991. Standard Chartered suffered its first
annual loss since 1989. HSBC reported an unexpected pre-tax loss of $858
million. JP Morgan announced a further loss of $500m on loans to energy
companies that cannot survive with oil prices at current levels. Bank of Ireland’s
2015 numbers were good but uncertainty about the general election, weaker
sterling on Brexit fears, and other issues around European financials all weighed
on the stock. Lloyds’ share price rallied strongly on the back of a good set of
2015 numbers and the announcement of a special dividend, showing that not
all is bad in the financial sector.
The Misery Index
There are a few different variations on how the index is calculated but, at its most
basic, it is the sum of the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. A recent
Bloomberg survey showed Venezuela is likely to top the charts again thanks to
an expected inflation rate of 152% and a jobless rate averaging 7.7%. Ireland’s
8.9% unemployment rate is the reason we finished mid table of the 63
economies ranked but in most surveys covering standards of living and
happiness, we tend to come in close to the top.
4
***
More discussion around
Sovereign Wealth Fund
disposals as the Sovereign
Wealth
Fund
Institute
indicated that some $400bn
may be withdrawn from global
stock markets this year.
***
China has set a range of 6.5%
to 7% for its economic growth
rate for 2016. It is the first time
since 1995 that they have set a
range as opposed to a specific
target.
***
Fitch upgraded Ireland’s
credit rating to A from A- and
growth forecast to 4% from
2.4%. The CSO’s provisional
estimates for unemployment
came in at 8.9%.
***
German and UK 10 year bond
yields and Japanese 20 year
bond yields hit record lows.
Some 30% of the Bloomberg
Global Developed Sovereign
Bond Index has negative
yields.
***
Signs the australian property
bubble may be starting to
deflate as house prices in
Sydney recorded their largest
quarterly drop in four years.
Oil Outlook
David Donnelly, Senior Investment Analyst
The rapid decline in oil prices over the last 18 months has been both alarming and headline grabbing. The
reasons can be traced to both increased supply from swing producers like Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the US,
as well as the lifting of sanctions on Iran; while slowing economic growth, particularly in China has weighed
on the demand side of the equation.
On a longer term view however, we see exceptional value in the oil space, as we believe the current depressed price is
ultimately unsustainable. Continued low prices has forced many higher cost producers to cease pumping oil, while national
budgets of producer nations are becoming stretched. Low prices also have a knock-on impact on capital expenditure within
the industry, meaning investment and refurbishment spending is curtailed in order to minimise cash expenditure.
As such, despite rhetoric to the contrary, we believe large producers will eventually be forced to reduce output, easing
oversupply; similarly the current slowing of demand if representative of a natural decline associated with this point of the
business cycle, and should rebound in time. At that point, the under-investment in oil infrastructure could result in a sharp
rally in oil prices as demand outweighs the capacity to supply.
Gaining exposure
Royal Dutch Shell Share Price: GBp1647.50
Since the successful approval of its merger with BG by both sets of
shareholders, Shell’s shares have rallied 8.7%, suggesting that the
uncertainty regarding the completion of the deal was weighing on
sentiment. Recent 2015 results saw the company report Net Income
$1.8 billion at the upper end of its guided range. Cost controls are
centre to management’s focus for the year ahead, and operating
expenses are seen reducing by a further $3 billion on top of the 10%
reduction ($4.1 billion) in 2015. We believe Shell’s dividend is secure
for at least this year and next, and at current levels offers a yield of
8.12%.
Exxon Mobil Share Price: $80.15
Exxon has one of the strongest dividend coverage ratios of all the
oil majors, meaning that earnings-per-share are 1.1 times larger than
the dividend per share. Its fourth quarter results beat expectations
by 6.3%, and capital expenditure was reduced by 19% year-on-year
to $31.1 billion. Exxon’s balance sheet remains exceptionally strong,
as Net Debt/EBITDA stands at 0.77x, while cash flow from operations
and asset sales was $32.7 billion, adding further support to the
dividend, which offers a yield of 3.65%.
*Price as of 29/02/2016
royal Dutch Shell Share Price
2600
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
Source: Bloomberg
Exxon Mobil Share Price
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
Source: Bloomberg
5
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)
IXC iShares Global Energy EtF
For investors who would like broader ways to play a future rebound in oil, the iShares Global Energy ETF (IXC US) offers
exposure to many of the world’s largest oil companies. Holding the ETF provides diversification across the Oil and Gas sector,
reducing the inherent risk that any individual company would reduce its dividends. The fund holds a wide variety of the
world’s largest oil and gas stocks, including our preferred names in the sector, Exxon and Shell.
Key Facts
Current Price: €27.06*
The iShares Global Energy ETF seeks to track the investment results
of an index composed of global equities in the energy sector.
Why IXC?
1. Exposure to companies that produce and distribute oil and gas
Inception Date
11/12/2001
Expense Ratio
0.47%
Benchmark
S&P Global 1200 Energy
Sector Index(TM)
30 Day SEC Yield
4.03%
Number of Holdings
88
2. Targeted access to energy stocks from around the world
Net Assets
$844,823,186
view 3. Use to express a global
sector
Ticker
IXC
CUSIP
464287341
Exchange
NYSE Arca
Annualised Performance (% EUR)
Source: www.ishares.com
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
10 Years
Since Inception
NAV
-22.09%
-7.15%
-3.78%
1.34%
6.00%
top ten Holdings %
Market Price
-22.14%
-7.26%
-3.85%
1.30%
5.99%
EXXON MOBIL CORP
Benchmark
-22.40%
-7.29%
-3.81%
1.27%
5.78%
CHEVRON CORP
8.61
TOTAL SA
5.55
BP PLC
4.83
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
CLASS A
4.49
SCHLUMBERGER NV
4.48
CONOCOPHILLIPS
2.93
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
CLASS B
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP
2.81
Growth of
EUr
Since
Inception
10,000
16.51
2.64
BG GROUP PLC
2.51
)XQG
)
XQG Source: www.ishares.com
%HQFKPDUN
%HQFKPDUN *Price as of 29/02/2016
6
EtFS Brent 1mth oILB
For more direct exposure to the change in oil prices, ETF Securities’ Brent ETF (OILB LN) tracks the total return of the European
benchmark oil contract.
Key Facts
Current Price: €18.10*
Investment Objective
ETFS Brent 1mth (OILB) is designed to enable investors to gain a total
return exposure to movements in the price of ICE 1 month Brent
crude oil futures contracts plus a collateral yield. The exposure is
obtained through fully funded uncollateralised swaps with Shell
Trading Switzerland AG, a member of the Royal Dutch Shell Group.
OILB is an exchange traded commodity ("ETC"). Its securities can be
created and redeemed on demand by authorised participants and
traded on exchange just like shares in a company.
Annualised Performance (% EUR)
ICE 1 month Brent oil futures
1 Year
2 Years
3 Years
4 Years
5 Years
-43.9%
-71.6%
-69.3%
-66.3%
-62.1%
Product Name
ETFS Brent 1mth
Issuer
ETFS Oil Securities Limited
Legal Form
Debt security
UCITS Eligible
Yes
Domicile
Jersey
Listing Date
28 July 2005
Base Currency
USD
Currency Hedged
No – this product is not protected against
adverse currency movements
Management Fee
0.49% p.a.
Replication
Synthetic - fully funded swap
Counterparties
Shell Trading Switzerland AG, a member
of the Royal Dutch Shell Group
Collateralised
ICE 1 Month Brent oil Futures Benchmark Performance
based
investment
performance
Historical index
on
from 1 February
2011 to 31 December 2015.
This information is denominated in USD.
Product Manager
Trustee
160
No – the ETC is not protected against
counterparty
credit risk 100
80
40
0
Feb-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Source: ETFS Securities
*Price as of 29/02/2016
20
Finland, France,
Denmark,
Germany,
Italy,
Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain,
Sweden, United Kingdom
60
Yes
Passported To The Law Debenture Trust Corporation
p.l.c.
UK Reporting Fund Status Yes
120
ETFS
Management
Company
(Jersey)
Limited
SIPP &ISA (UK) Eligible
140
C A N T O R F I T Z G E R A L D I R E L A N D L T D
7
StockWatch
Shane Kelly,
Investment Analyst
CRH Share Price
32
30
CRH
Current Price: €23.975
28
CRH posted strong FY15 earnings highlighted by top line growth
26
and an acceleration in debt reduction. Revenues were €23.6bn,
24
2.3% ahead of consensus and up 25% YoY. 17% of this top line
22
growth came from continuing operations which shows the
underlying business remains robust in addition to accretive M&A
20
activities. EBITDA was also strongly ahead, up 35% YoY to €2.2bn.
Revenues were again driven by the North American business as
Source: Bloomberg
Europe continued to see mixed trading conditions. Management
were keen to stress that margin growth in the US was not sacrificed
for volume and this was evidenced by a further 70 bps increase in group EBITDA margin to 9.4%. The Lafarge Holcim assets
also performed well in the year contributing €2.4bn to top line and c.€200m to EBITDA.
CRH’s net debt is down to €6.6bn or 3x EBITDA, with the reduction driven by an additional €400m in divestments since the strategy
update and a €1bn contribution from cash flows. On the outlook management Europe stabilising in 2016, while it expects the
US to continue to grow in 2016 at a pace similar to recent trends, noting the infrastructure bill and expected pick up in housing
and non-residential construction as two specific catalysts. We continue to see upside in CRH which trades on 15.8x 2016 earnings,
a c. 7% discount to its long term average.
Shane Kelly,
Investment Analyst
Green REIT Share Price
1.7
1.6
Green REIT
Current Price: €1.356
1.5
1.4
Green REIT released strong H1 earnings at the end of February
1.3
with NAV growth +7% to €962m or €1.41 per share. The portfolio
1.2
is now 99% let as management continue to focus on asset
1.1
management and securing strong tenants on long lease terms.
1
Marquee renewals included Pioneer Investments which has been
completed at Georges Quay, while the Vodafone renewal in
Central Park extended its term to 2026 on current rents of €28psf.
Source: Bloomberg
Vodafone remains Greens largest tenant with annual rents of
€7.3m. The agreement is also significant noting that Vodafone occupies 263,000 sq. ft. in Central Park where Green is set to
launch c. 150,000 sq. ft. of additional new commercial space towards the end of 2016 and ensures the park remains fully let
ahead of this.
A key focus for management has been on re-letting a number of units which will experience a rent event over the next 3 years.
Of this €29m (c. 53% of total contracted rent prior to the addition of Albert Quay and acquiring the residual 50% interest in Central
Park) in rent events falling due between 2016 and 2018, management has now secured c. €19m (65%) on long leases, extending
its weighted average unexpired lease term (WAULT) by 2.3 years from 5 to 7.3 years. As it stands today, just 25% of rents are set
to see a rent event prior to 2018, with 75% of rents let past 2019. This certainty on rental income coupled with attractive yields
on Prime Dublin Commercial units seen at present has driven our expectations for 2016e NAV of €1.51 for 2016 and €1.64 for
2017. We are confident that management can at least meet these targets for 2016 while we also expect a dividend yield of c.
2.5% growing towards 4% in the next 3 years.
8
David Donnelly,
Senior Investment Analyst
Amazon Current Price: $579.04
Amazon remains one of our preferred names in the Tech
space, given its dominant position in online retailing. The
company enjoyed revenue growth of 22% last year, as sales
rose to $35.75billion, far outpacing the 13% seen in the
wider e-commerce sector. Importantly, margins are also
improving, as the fourth quarter saw margins expand to
3.2%. We expect this growth to be maintained as
consumers spend a greater proportion of their time online.
amazon Share Price
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
Source: Bloomberg
Critically, Amazon is also enjoying huge growth in its Amazon Web Services (AWS) division, which provides Cloud computing
services. Cloud computing allows businesses to avoid costly purchases of hardware like servers, and instead connect to
computing power via the internet for a small fee. This is hugely attractive for many businesses given the avoidance of
expensive outlays on technology hardware. Amazon’s service grew revenues by 69% in the last quarter to $2.4billion, and
accounted for 40% of the company’s operating income. This is a critical growth area within the Tech space and offers
exceptionally high margins of 26% to Amazon.
Overall, Amazon is expected to grow earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) by an average
of 32.35% per annum over the next three years. In this light we see the current valuation of 18.75x 2016e EV/EBITDA as
exceptionally attractive, and we maintain our Outperform rating.
Stephen Hall,
CFA, Investment Analyst
Smurfit Kappa Share Price
30
Smurfit Kappa Current Price: €21.885
28
26
24
22
Prior to Smurfit Kappa’s Full Year 2015 results on the 10th
20
February we felt its share price was undervalued. Since
18
then, it has released a very positive set of results and we
16
14
have seen a meaningful 18% positive re-rating in its
12
valuations multiples from 8.3x FY16e earnings to 9.8x. We
10
still think there is significant re-rating potential ahead, as
the stock still trades at a 17% discount to its own historic 3
Source: Bloomberg
year average at 11.8x. Smurfit also trades at a 27% discount
to its closest UK peer, DS Smith and we view this valuation
discount as excessive and unjustifiable, and should narrow over the near term horizon.
Smurfit should deliver meaningful earnings growth in FY16 (10.2% forecast growth expected) due to a drop in exceptional
charges, a boost from new acquisitions and capex investments, in addition to €75m of highlighted cost savings. Earnings
growth could also surprise to the upside once expensive oil hedges roll off in Q1/16 and if oil prices remain at depressed
level below $40 a barrel throughout 2016. Smurfit successfully passed through prices increases to many of its 64,000
customers in Q4/15 and has made further progress on pricing in Q1/16. Management is forecasting organic volume growth
between 2%-3% for FY16 which would be a strong performance.
Smurfit has transitioned into a very attractive dividend play for investors as the company has significantly increased dividend
payments over the past 3 years. Investors are paid a forecast dividend yield of 3.6% to hold Smurfit stock for 2016, which is
significantly above the average dividend yield paid by ISEQ companies at 2.2%. Smurfit is a highly cash generative business,
and modestly leveraged with a Net Debt/ EBITDA ratio of 2.4x. Its Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield is among the highest in the
ISEQ Index at 7.3%, which enables the company’s attractive dividend policy. The company remains on the lookout for
accretive bolt-on acquisitions and has significant debt headroom available to further consolidate the Packaging Sector
particularly in Latin America. The market remains broadly bullish on Smurfit, with a consensus 12mth Target Price of €28.36,
which offers 34% upside potential if achieved.
9
Green Effects Fund
Socially Responsible Investing
Richard Power, Director of Stockbroking
Key Information
Objectives
The objective of the Fund is to achieve long term capital growth and income.
The fund will provide investors with a product through which they can invest
in companies with a commitment to supporting the environment and
socially just production and work methods. For this purpose the fund only
invests in stocks which are included in the Natural Stock Index (NAI).
Performance
Morningstar Rating
HHHHH
NAV
€175.78*
Minimum Investment
€5,000
Dealing Frequency
Weekly
Sales Agent
Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd
Custodian
Northern Trust
Administrator
Northern Trust
Feb 2016
YTD
2015
Administration
Northern Trust
Green Effects
1.6%
-3.1%
15.2%
Investment Manager
Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd
S&P 500 (€)
1.5%
-3.2%
-0.7%
Sales Commission
3%
MSCI World (€)
0.6%
-5.3%
-1.9%
Total Expense
1.24%
Investment Mgt Fee
0.75%
Website
www.greeneffects.ie
Source: Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd Research and Bloomberg.
Manager Comment
The Green Effects Fund NAV ended February at €175.78 which was a return
of 1.6% for the month. During the month two new stocks were added to the
NAI index namely Tesla Motors and Smith & Nephew. Tesla Motors is an
American automotive and energy Storage Company that designs,
manufactures, and sells luxury electric cars, electric vehicle powertrain
components, and battery products. The company was incorporated in 2003
by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, who financed the company until
the December 2004 when Elon Musk's involvement began. Musk led the
Series A) round of investment in February 2004, joining Tesla's board of
directors as its chairman. Elon Musk is a South African-born CanadianAmerican business magnate, engineer, inventor and investor. He is the
founder, CEO and CTO of SpaceX, co-founder, CEO and product architect of
Tesla Motors, chairman of SolarCity and co-founder of PayPal. Tesla has a
market capitalisation of circa $24bn at present and most recently reported
Q4 2015 revenues of $97m. Smith & Nephew plc is a British-based
multinational medical equipment manufacturing company headquartered
in London, United Kingdom. It is an international producer of arthroscopy
products, advanced wound management products, trauma and clinical
therapy products and orthopedic reconstruction products. Its products are
sold in over 90 countries. The company is quoted on the London Stock
Exchange and has a market capitalisation of £10.621bn. Solarworld and
Keurig Green Mountain were removed from the NAI Index in February.
Source: Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd Research
*Prices as of 29/02/2016
Source: Bloomberg & Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd Research
top ten Holdings
SVENSKA CELLULOSA
8.43%
SHIMANO
8.41%
VESTAS
7.59%
KINGFISHER
7.34%
TESLA
5.58%
MOLINA
4.47%
SMITH & NEPHEW
4.46%
ACCIONA
4.24%
EAST JAPAN RAILWAY CO.
4.12%
TOMRA SYSTEMS
4.02%
Green Effects Fund naV Since Inception
200.00
180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
10
CANTOR FITZGERALD
STRUCTURED PRODUCT PORTFOLIOS
With continued market volatility, and with interest rates remaining close to 0%, it is more important than ever to have a
diversified portfolio which also contains an element of downside protection.
Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland currently has 3 structured products available which can help fulfil these core requirements of
diversification with downside protection.
PR STR NE
OD UC W
UC TU
T L RE
AU D
NC
H
Protected Absolute Return Strategies – Key Features
Returns linked to 3 leading actively managed absolute return funds.
CANTOR FITZGERALD
PROTECTED ABSOLUTE RETURN STRATEGIES
Key Product Features
90% Capital protection with 120% participation in the basket of funds returns.
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90% capital protection with 120% participation in the funds returns.
Aims to achieve positive returns significantly ahead of deposit rates.
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Aims to achieve positive returns significantly ahead of deposit rates.
“A” rated issuer Credit Suisse AG.
5 Year investment term.
“A” rated issuer Credit Suisse AG.
• 3 underlying Absolute Return Funds are Standard Life GARS, Carmignac Patrimoine & Ethna Activ.
• Returns are subject to CGT, investors may use any applicable CGT allowances.
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• Closing date: 11th March 2016.
For more information, please contact your Cantor Fitzgerald portfolio manager or
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Closing Date: 21st March 2016.
Warning: If you invest in this product you may not have access to your money for 5 years.
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Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd (Cantor) is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland.
Cantor Fitzgerald is a member of the Irish Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange.
Euro Stoxx 50 Double Growth Note – Key Features
200% of returns from EURO STOXX 50 Index of top Euro companies.
80% Capital protection from “A” rated Guarantor Societe Generale.
Maximum return of 30% (5.39% IRR).
CANTOR FITZGERALD
EURO STOXX 50 DOUBLE GROWTH NOTE
Closing Date: 21st March 2016.
200% Exposure to the positive returns of the EUROSTOXX 50 Index.
80% Capital protection from “A” rated Guarantor Societe Generale.
Maximum return of 30% (5.39% IRR).
Investment returns are subject to capital gains tax (CGT), investors may use any applicable
CGT allowances.
5 Year investment term.
Guarantor: Societe Generale.
Limited Issue - Closing Date 11th March 2016.
This brochure is directed at retail clients, as categorized within the meaning of MifiD, who have received investment advice.
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Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd. is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland.
Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd. is a Member Firm of The Irish Stock Exchange and The London Stock Exchange.
Oil & Gas Kick Out Note III – Key Features
Potential returns of 17% per annum.
PR STR NE
OD UC W
UC TU
T L RE
AU D
NC
H
CANTOR FITZGERALD
OIL & GAS KICK OUT NOTE III
Key Product Features
Potential returns of 17% per annum.
100% capital returned provided Royal Dutch Shell, Exxon, BP and Total are each equal to or above
50% of their Initial Price Level, on the Final Valuation Date.
5 Year investment term which may redeem early between years 1 and 5. Note redeems early if all
4 stocks are equal to or above their Initial Price Level at any semi-annual valuation date after year 1.
100% capital returned provided Royal Dutch Shell, Exxon, BP and Total are each equal to or above 50%
of their Initial Price Level, on the Final Valuation Date.
5 Year investment term which may redeem early between years 1 and 5. Note redeems early if all 4 stocks
are equal to or above their Initial Price Level on the final valuation date.
This is a capital at risk investment product.
This is a capital at risk investment product.
• Returns are subject to CGT, investors may use any applicable CGT allowances.
• Available to Personal, Pension, Corporate & ARF/AMRF Investors.
• Closing date: 4th March 2016.
For more information, please contact your Cantor Fitzgerald portfolio manager or
visit www.cantorfitzgerald.ie to download a flyer and detailed brochure.
Warning: If you invest in this product you may not have access to your money for 5 years.
Warning: If on the Final Valuation Date the Final Price Level of any of the 4 Stocks is more than 50% below its Initial Price Level,
you will lose 50% or more of your investment.
Warning: If Societe Generale were to default on Senior Debt, you will lose some or all of your investment.
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Closing Date: 11th March 2016.
All products have a 5 year investment term.
For more information, please contact your Cantor Fitzgerald portfolio manager on 01 6333633 or
visit www.cantorFitzgerald.ie to download a detailed brochure.
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11
Corporate Finance Update
In December 2015 Cantor Fitzgerald successfully raised €9.8m in Employment and Investment Incentive Scheme (“EIIS”)
funding for three high growth exciting Irish businesses. In February 2016, Cantor Fitzgerald successfully raised €3m in senior
secured loan notes to assist Glandore Business Centres Limited in acquiring two Dublin city centre properties. In addition to
the recent fundraises Cantor Fitzgerald has now successfully exited its first two EIIS projects, the most recent being
Caherciveen Wind Limited.
Caherciveen Wind Limited
CAHERCIVEEN WIND LTD.
• Cantor Fitzgerald successfully exited the 2012 Caherciveen Wind Limited EIIS in February of
this year. This was the second such exit following last year’s exit for the 2011 investors.
• Through the EIIS Cantor Fitzgerald raised €2.5m to part finance the development of a 9MW
wind farm in Co. Kerry.
• Investors received a 9% uplift on their investment. This together with the tax relief obtained
resulted in an IRR of 17%.
Caherciveen Wind Ltd
• €2.5m EIIS fundraise
completed Dec 2012
• Successful exit Feb 2016
(IRR 17.1%)
Loan Note Investments
Glandore Business Centres
• Cantor Fitzgerald raised a senior secured loan note of €3m for Glandore Business Centres Ltd
in February 2016.
• The funds raised were used to assist in funding the purchase of the freehold to two properties
that the business previously occupied as lessee.
• The loan note was issued with a 12 month term, with investors receiving a 10% coupon per
annum, payable semi-annually.
• The loan note is secured against two properties that were being purchased, with a Loan to
Cost ratio against the two properties of 70%.
Glandore Business
Centres Ltd
• €3m Senior Secured
Loan Note fundraise
completed Feb 2016
Upcoming Opportunities
• The Cantor Fitzgerald Corporate Finance team are currently working with a number of businesses and will be bringing further
loan note opportunities to market in the coming months.
• Businesses that we are in active discussion will result in loan note investment opportunities in the following sectors; Renewable
Energy, Food Production, Healthcare, Property Development & Property Investment.
12
Irish REITs Monthly Update
Shane Kelly, Investment Analyst
Hibernia REIT Current Price €1.24 | NAV 122.1c
Hibernia released an IMS at the start of February, highlighting some
of the key asset management initiatives on-going in the group. In the
Hanover Building, BNY Mellon has served notice to exercise its break
on 44,000sq. ft it currently occupies in December 2016. Current rent
is €1.4m (€31 psf ), with management noting that current ERV’s are
well ahead of this current passing rent. At the Chancery Building it is
in discussions with a number of potential tenants regarding the two
floors (c. 11,500 sq. ft.) coming vacant in March 2016 as well as
appointing an agent for the remainder of Cumberland House.
Hibernia rEIt Share Price
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
Source: Bloomberg
It also completed the acquisition of Central Quay on Dublin’s South
Docks. It has paid €51.3m, which represents an initial yield of 4.5% on
rents of €2.5m. While the initial yield looks keen, management have flagged a number of rent events that will eventually increase
yield on cost towards 6%. Near term catalysts include the ground floor and third floor which becomes vacant towards the 4th
quarter of 2016, while the 1st floor has a rent event in mid-2018, with the space currently significantly under rented. The deal
should add 1 months’ rent (c. €208k) to 2016 numbers.
Green rEIt Share Price
Green REIT Current Price €1.356 | NAV 141c
1.7
Green released H1/16 earnings which we have highlighted in our
stock watch section this month. NAV growth was +7% to €1.41 while
profit was €67.1 million for the 6 months to 31 December 2015. It also
completed a number of high profile lettings including securing
Pioneer Investments and Vodafone to new terms in the period. It also
completed the acquisition of the residual 50% stake in Central Park
and made its first payment on Albert Quay in Cork.
1.5
1.6
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1
Source: Bloomberg
IRES REIT Current Price €1.139 | NAV 105.3c
IRES was busy at the start of February, announcing full year results,
the acquisition of 23 Apartments for €5.9m, at City Square, D2 as well
as announcing the development of 68 apartments in the Beacon
South Quarter in Sandyford.
IrES rEIt Share Price
1.25
1.2
1.15
1.1
1.05
FY15 results showed NAV growth of 5% YoY below many estimates as
rent control measures impacted growth.
1
0.95
0.9
Focus looks set to switch towards developing some of the c. 600 –
650 apartments it has potentially available for development. This has
Source: Bloomberg
been evidenced by the appointment of Walls construction to develop
an initial 68 apartments for a fixed cost in the Beacon South Quarter, Sandyford.
The acquisition at City Square has a contracted rent of €0.5m which represents an initial yield of 8.5%, split between 15 1 beds
and 8 2 beds, close to Trinity college and the city centre.
13
Charts of the Month
Stephen Hall, CFA, Investment Analyst
GBPUSD
UK Prime Minister, David Cameron negotiated favourable European Union membership terms at the EU Summit on the 18th
February which protects the Sterling Pound, limits immigration benefits, reduces bureaucracy and should lead to a closer Union.
Directly after this summit, Mr. Cameron set the date for the BREXIT referendum for the 23rd of June and he maintains his support
to stay within the EU.
The biggest development in the ongoing BREXIT saga is that the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, who is a hugely popular
politician among the UK public, has declared his support for the “Out” campaign; claiming the UK could negotiate better
membership terms if the public first voted to leave the EU. His announcement immediately weakened the Sterling Pound (GBP),
and led to Cable (GBPUSD) closing below $1.40 on a monthly basis for the first time since 1984, while EURGBP continues to grind
higher and is now trading 79p, a 13% appreciation in the past 3 months. Mr. Johnson is not alone in his view to leave the EU, in
total 150 of 331 Conservative MPs are voting in favour of a BREXIT.
We still think the economic costs of the UK voting to leave the EU outweighs any potential benefits. There is extreme uncertainty
associated with a BREXIT and negative factors include a potential loss of foreign direct investment, a potential relocation of large
investment banks out of the City of London, a collapse in the value of the Sterling Pound, more expensive funding for the UK
Government within the primary debt markets to fund its current account deficit, potentially another referendum on Scottish
Independence, a loss of jobs and a slowdown in economic growth. There is also a risk of a cut to its sovereign credit rating from
the 3 big rating agencies, impacting UK business confidence and curtail investment spending. If the UK did vote to leave it would
have to renegotiate trade relations with the EU and other countries and regions, as well as reconsider other topics such as
regulatory and immigration policies.
The most recent BREXIT poll conducted by the Financial Times suggests 46% of Britons want to stay within the EU, 38% wish to
leave, while 16% are still undecided. A shift in sentiment towards staying in the EU will support the Sterling Pound, and UK equity
markets particularly the UK Financial Sector. Ultimately, we see opinion polls shifting in favour of the “In” camp over the next 4
months, as the UK public begins to understand the potentially severe economic consequences if UK chooses to leave a Union
with its biggest trade block. The impact of a BREXIT on the strength of the Sterling Pound is extremely binary. An “In” vote should
lead to a strong recovery, while an “Out” vote will drive GBP further into uncharted territory which it hasn’t seen for several
decades.
Long term 40 year chart of GBPUSD: Big support broken on a monthly basis
14
Gold
Gold has been one of the best performing asset classes in the first two months of 2016 (+16.5%) as investors seek alternative
investments to insulate portfolios from increasingly volatile global equity markets. Despite a strong rally in global equities
in the last 2 trading weeks of February, the price action in Gold was very positive and it held onto the majority of its gains,
and found big short term support at $1,225. In the process, it has broken to the upside of a long term downward slopping
trend channel which has been in place over the past 3 years, and we see next near term resistance at $1,294 (yellow
horizontal line) and $1,382 (orange horizontal line) above.
Gold predominately remains a “Safe Haven” investment which should provide downside protection to an investor’s portfolio
during periods of increased market volatility or risk aversion, and we think 2016 has numerous unknown risk events on the
horizon. Investors do not receive a coupon or dividend from holding this precious metal, which is one of the key deterrents
for individuals who require an income from their portfolio. However, we continue to operate in “lower for longer” yield
environment and real interest rates (nominal interest rates – inflation rates) in several major economies globally have turned
negative recently, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold. We recommend that investor’s gain exposure to
gold through PHAU LN, which is an Exchange Trade Commodity on physical backed gold.
Gold Chart
15
Investment Fund Focus
Mark McPaul, Portfolio Construction Analyst
Below we highlight four investment funds from our Cantor20 range that we consider as attractive options for
investment portfolios in 2016.
These funds should also be considered for tactical allocation in existing investment portfolios to improve
diversification and portfolio positioning.
theme 1: Increase in Equity Market Volatility
In order to mitigate the downside risk to portfolios from spikes in volatility we would suggest two absolute return funds,
Standard Life GarS and BnY Mellon Global real return.
theme 2: Yields in the Eurozone to remain depressed
For income focused portfolios we would suggest adding exposure to investment grade corporate bonds which offer an
attractive yield uplift relative to government bonds. The PIMCo GIS Investment Grade Credit provides a tactical exposure
across global investment grade credit.
Theme 3: European Equities vs UK & US
For investors looking to play our preferred theme of European Equities over the US and UK, we would suggest the Standard
Life European Smaller Companies Fund.
THEME 1: INCREASE IN EQUITY MARKET VOLATILITY
Standard Life GARS Fund
As of 29/02/2016
Performance
objective:
Investment Growth of €10,000
To deliver a positive return in the form of capital growth over the
medium to longer term in all market conditions by investing across
multiple asset classes. This fund looks to outperform EURIBOR + 5%
over 3 year rolling periods and targets a volatility range between 48% per annum.
role in Portfolio:
1
2
3
4
Standard Life GARS Fund
!11,500
!11,000
!10,500
Given its active positioning for different market environment it fits
in well as a hedge with direct equity or long only fund portfolios.
Investors should be aware that in order to achieve its objective the
fund will make extensive use of derivative instruments. It has a low
correlation with equities making the fund an ideal choice for
investors looking for competitive returns but with less of the
volatility associated with direct stock market investments.
risk rating:
!12,000
5
6
7
!10,000
!9,500
Jan-13
Jul-13
Performance
Fund %
Jan-14
YTD
-2.48%
Jul-14
2015
2.90%
Jan-15
2014
5.61%
Jul-15
Jan-16
2013
6.47%
Fund Particulars
Type:
Absolute Return
ISIN:
LU0548153799
Ongoing Charge:
0.90%
AUM (€ Mil)
€15,595
Current Yield:
0.00%
Dividend Frequency
NA
*Available on Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Platform
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THEME 1: INCREASE IN EQUITY MARKET VOLATILITY
BNY Mellon Global Real Return
Performance
objective:
A total return comprised of long-term capital growth and
income by investing in a broad multi-asset portfolio. The Fund
aims to deliver cash (i.e. 1 Month EURIBOR) + 4% p.a. over 5
years before fees.
role in Portfolio:
risk rating:
2
3
4
!11,500
BNY Mellon Global Real Return
!11,000
!10,500
There are no restrictions on the fund’s asset allocation with the
overall aim to produce a positive return regardless of market
conditions. This fund would work well as a core holding in
portfolios to help dampen the impact of falling markets on
returns. In addition, the funds unconstrained investment
approach provides portfolios with the benefits of cost
effective diversification..
1
As of 29/02/2016
5
6
7
!10,000
!9,500
Jan-13
Jul-13
Performance
Fund %
Jan-14
YTD
2.51%
Jul-14
2015
1.65%
Jan-15
Jul-15
2014
4.90%
Jan-16
2013
3.53%
Fund Particulars
Type:
Absolute Return
ISIN:
IE00B52MKP33
Ongoing Charge:
1.09%
AUM (€ Mil)
€2,841
Current Yield:
1.11%
Distribution Frequency
Annually
THEME 2: YIELDS IN THE EUROzONE TO REMAIN DEPRESSED
PIMCO GIS Investment Grade Credit Fund
As of 29/02/2016
Performance
objective:
The Global Investment Grade Credit Fund is an actively
managed fund that invests at least two-thirds of its assets in
investment grade global corporate and credit instruments. To
provide a yield uplift the fund may also invest up to 15% in
sub-investment grade bonds.
!11,000
PIMCO GIS Investment Grade Credit
!10,500
role in Portfolio:
!10,000
This fund offers the diversification benefits of corporate bonds
versus equities as well as an attractive income stream for
investors looking to outperform deposits. The fund is currently
yielding 3.86% per annum and distributes income on a
quarterly basis.
risk rating:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
!9,500
Jan-13
Jul-13
Performance
Fund %
Jan-14
YTD
0.83%
Jul-14
2015
0.15%
Jan-15
Jul-15
2014
7.27%
Jan-16
2013
-1.03%
Fund Particulars
Type:
Global Corporate Bond
ISIN:
IE00B3D1YW09
Ongoing Charge::
0.49%
AUM (€ Mil)
€11,691
Current Yield:
3.86%
Quarterly
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THEME 3: EUROPEAN EQUITIES VS UK & US
Standard Life European Smaller Companies Fund
objective:
The fund aims to provide long term growth by investing
predominantly in the shares of smaller companies listed on
European stock markets, including the UK. This also includes
companies that have significant European operations and
companies in European emerging markets.
role in Portfolio:
1
2
3
4
Performance
!22,000
!20,000
Standard Life European Smaller Companies
!18,000
!16,000
!14,000
Smaller companies traditionally outperform larger companies
during periods of rising markets due to their increased
risk/return characteristics; similarly they will tend to
underperform in down markets. Therefore this fund is suitable
for investors seeking a higher risk/return payoff, or as an
underweight holding in a diversified portfolio. Smaller
European companies should continue to benefit from ECB
Quantitative Easing as a result of the pickup in underlying Euro
area growth.
risk rating:
As of 29/02/2016
5
6
7
!12,000
!10,000
!8,000
Jan-13
Jul-13
Performance
Fund %
Jan-14
YTD
-8.90%
Jul-14
2015
37.26%
Jan-15
2014
4.54%
Jul-15
Jan-16
2013
43.28%
Fund Particulars
Type:
European Small Cap Equity
ISIN:
LU0306632687
Ongoing Charge::
1.01%
AUM (€ Mil)
€341
Current Yield:
0.00%
NA
18
Bond of the Month
BKIr 7.375% at1 Perpetual Bond
Fiona Hayes, Fixed Income Strategist
Bank of Ireland released a strong set of results for 2015 last week with profit before tax of €1,232m, marginally
ahead of our forecasts as net interest income grew by 4% despite NIM coming in 1bp shy of our expectations
at 2.19%.
Net loans exceeded our forecast, ending the year at €84.7bn, up €2.6bn compared with the end of 2014, although this was
almost entirely down to GBP strength (which has since reversed). There was a significant reduction in defaulted loans which
fell by €3.8bn to €10.6bn, while the broader non-performing loan measure fell by €2.4bn to just under €12bn. In turn, the
impairment charge was a modest 32bps, down from 90bps in 2014. The bank added 200bps to fully-loaded CET1 capital
over the course of the year, meaning it advanced to 11.3%, while transitional CET1 grew to 13.3% - c.300bps ahead of the
newly disclosed SREP requirement of 10.25%.
European subordinated financial bonds finally staged a modest rebound after weeks of intense selling pressure. We had
argued that the sell-off was massively overdone and the market should eventually start to distinguish good credits from
bad ones. This bond still offers a yield to next call of 8.84%.
The bond is a “temporary write-down” instrument, allowing the bank to convert the bonds into equity when the CET1 ratio
falls below 5.125%. After a temporary write-down, the bank would be able to write-back up portions of the bonds each
year on a phased basis, subject to certain restrictions. The transitional CET1 ratio had a buffer of over 8% over this trigger at
year-end, nor do we see question marks over the bank’s capacity to pay discretionary coupon – with assert quality moving
in the right direction and no one-off litigation charges such as those faced by some other European banks.
Minimum investment size is nominal 200,000.
Disclaimer: This is a sub-investment grade and subordinated bond suitable only for investors with higher risk appetite.
Issuer
Bank of Ireland
Rating
B+/B2
Currency
Euro
Maturity
Perpetual
Callable
Perpetual call 18/06/2020 @100
Collateral
Not applicable
Coupon
7.375%
Coupon Type
Fixed
Coupon dates
Semi-annual (June, December)
Issue size
€750 million
Price
€95.40
Yield
8.84% (to next call)
19
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Performance
DATA
February 2016
20
Core Portfolio 2016 Performance Update
21
Investment Returns
22
23
Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Bond Returns
24
Core Portfolio 2016
Core Portfolio at 1st March 2016
Stock
Aryzta*
Glanbia
Ryanair*
ICG
GlaxoSmithKline
Pfizer
General Electric
Smurfit Kappa
Daimler
DCC
CRH
Grafton Group
Royal Dutch Shell
Exxon Mobil
Apple
Alphabet
SAP
Facebook
PayPal
Vodafone
Verizon
Bank of Ireland
Prudential
Lloyds
AIG
Allianz
Intesa Sanpaolo
iShare Dax ETF*
Weighted Return (Local Crncy)
Price
29/02/2016
Total Return Local Cncy (%)
Year to date
Total Return Euro (%)
Year to date *(SIP)
Fwd P/E
FY1 (x)
Div Yield
FY1
Target
Weight (%)
44.4
18.4
14.3
4.7
1,399.5
29.7
29.1
21.3
63.1
5,640.0
23.7
665.5
1,645.0
80.2
96.7
717.2
69.9
106.9
38.1
219.7
50.7
0.3
1,257.5
72.4
50.2
137.3
2.3
83.9
-4.74
8.32
-4.83
-13.19
5.11
-7.16
-5.72
-9.56
-18.66
-1.84
-11.24
-10.07
8.81
3.76
-7.65
-7.81
-4.69
2.16
5.36
-0.59
11.12
-22.49
-17.86
-0.92
-20.74
-16.08
-24.16
-11.70
-5.7%
-4.74
8.32
-4.83
-13.19
-0.83
-7.23
-5.79
-9.56
-18.66
-6.75
-11.24
-15.15
2.66
3.67
-7.72
-7.89
-4.69
2.07
5.27
-6.21
11.03
-22.49
-22.51
-6.52
-20.35
-16.08
-24.16
-11.70
11.1
19.9
12.5
13.8
15.7
11.9
16.5
9.6
7.2
20.4
15.1
14.2
11.3
17.9
9.6
17.9
16.4
26.0
21.7
38.9
12.5
8.9
10.6
9.4
8.5
9.0
9.2
11.0
15.4
1.41%
0.79%
0.87%
2.53%
5.67%
4.11%
3.46%
3.63%
5.58%
1.87%
2.83%
2.28%
8.13%
3.83%
2.37%
0.00%
1.94%
0.00%
0.00%
5.19%
4.62%
5.02%
3.45%
6.50%
2.85%
5.66%
9.76%
3.77%
3.16%
4.0
2.0
4.5
2.0
4.0
4.0
2.0
3.0
3.5
2.0
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.0
2.0
4.0
4.0
3.0
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.0
2.0
3.5
2.0
4.0
3.5
4.0
Current Price as at 29/02/2016. Source: Bloomberg, CFEU estimates. *SIP = Since Inclusion in Portfolio
Portfolio Total Return (€) YTD -7.09%. | Benchmark Return(€) YTD -6.98%
21
Investment Returns
February 2016
Equities
Index
ISEQ
DAX
Eurostoxx50
Stoxx600 (Europe)
Nasdaq (100)
Dow Jones
S&P500
Nikkei
Hang Seng
China (Shaghai Composite)
India
MSCI World Index
MSCI BRIC Index
31/01/2016
6343.24
9798.11
3045.09
342.27
4279.169
16466.3
1940.24
17518.3
19683.11
2737.6
24870.69
1562.18
198.83
29/02/2016
6344.11
9495.4
2945.75
333.92
4201.118
16516.5
1932.23
16026.76
19111.93
2687.979
23002
1547.17
194.59
% Change
0.0%
-3.1%
-3.3%
-2.4%
-1.8%
0.3%
-0.4%
-8.5%
-2.9%
-1.8%
-7.5%
-1.0%
-2.1%
% ytd Change
-6.6%
-11.6%
-9.8%
-8.7%
-8.5%
-5.2%
-5.5%
-15.8%
-12.8%
-24.1%
-11.9%
-7.0%
-11.9%
52 Week High
6,921
12,391
3,836
415
4,740
18,351
2,135
20,953
28,589
5,178
30,025
1,814
311
Date
03/12/2015
10/04/2015
13/04/2015
15/04/2015
02/12/2015
19/05/2015
20/05/2015
24/06/2015
27/04/2015
12/06/2015
04/03/2015
22/05/2015
27/04/2015
31/01/2016
1.0831
0.76082
1.4244
1.52898
1.51359
131.21
1.10776
8.4346
7.1247
74.0121
15012.74
0.7084
121.14
99.606
29/02/2016
1.0873
0.78128
1.3917
1.52251
1.47228
122.53
1.08558
8.4547
7.1217
74.494
14608.02
0.7141
112.69
98.211
% Change
0.4%
2.7%
-2.3%
-0.4%
-2.7%
-6.6%
-2.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.7%
-2.7%
0.8%
-7.0%
-1.4%
% ytd Change
0.1%
6.0%
-5.6%
2.1%
-2.1%
-6.2%
-0.2%
0.4%
-5.6%
3.3%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-6.3%
-0.4%
52 Week High
1.1714
0.7929
1.5930
1.6590
1.6106
141.0600
1.1200
9.0780
7.4733
77.4900
16,638.7000
0.8164
125.8600
100.5100
Date
24/08/2015
25/02/2016
18/06/2015
24/08/2015
20/01/2016
04/06/2015
04/02/2016
24/08/2015
11/02/2016
12/02/2016
29/09/2015
14/05/2015
05/06/2015
02/12/2015
31/01/2016
35.28
34.74
1118.17
14.2615
207.15
383.26
40.6371
105.9199
2.298
485
376.75
29/02/2016
33.75
35.97
1238.74
14.9023
213.25
383.63
38.7233
102.9726
1.711
453.25
357
% Change
-4.3%
3.5%
10.8%
4.5%
2.9%
0.1%
-4.7%
-2.8%
-25.5%
-6.5%
-5.2%
% ytd Change
-13.7%
-3.5%
16.7%
7.5%
-0.4%
2.4%
-2.2%
-3.6%
-26.8%
-4.9%
-2.1%
52 Week High
65.71
69.63
1,263.47
17.78
293.50
542.10
50.19
125.31
3.11
631.00
468.50
Date
06/05/2015
06/05/2015
11/02/2016
18/05/2015
13/05/2015
14/05/2015
14/07/2015
14/07/2015
19/05/2015
01/07/2015
14/07/2015
31/01/2016
0.019
0.835
-0.487
-0.312
0.325
0.337
0.894
1.56
0.7737
1.328
1.9209
29/02/2016
0.04
0.798
-0.571
-0.407
0.107
0.378
0.741
1.337
0.7737
1.2123
1.7347
Yield Change
0.02
-0.04
-0.08
-0.10
-0.22
0.04
-0.15
-0.22
0.00
-0.12
-0.19
% ytd Change
-0.17
-0.36
-0.23
-0.36
-0.52
-0.27
-0.60
-0.62
-0.27
-0.55
-0.53
52 Week High
0.79
1.89
-0.14
0.27
1.06
0.77
1.67
2.21
1.10
1.83
2.50
Date
16/06/2015
10/06/2015
10/06/2015
13/07/2015
10/06/2015
09/11/2015
26/06/2015
26/06/2015
29/12/2015
30/12/2015
11/06/2015
Currencies
Currency Pair
EuroUSD
EuroGBP
GBP/USD
Euro/AUD
Euro/CAD
Euro/JPY
Euro/CHF
Euro/HKD
Euro/CNY
Euro/INR (India)
Euro/IDR (Indonesia)
AUD/USD
USD/JPY
US Dollar Index
Commodities
Commodity
Oil (Crude)
Oil (Brent)
Gold
Silver
Copper
CRB Commodity Index
DJUBS Grains Index
DJUBS Soft Commodity
Gas
Wheat
Corn
Bonds
Issuer
Irish 5yr
Irish 10yr
German 2yr
German 5yr
German 10yr
UK 2yr
UK 5yr
UK 10yr
US 2yr
US 5yr
US 10yr
Source: Bloomberg and Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd Research.
22
February 2016
Asset Class Performances (returns in Local Currency)*
Equities
2004
MSCI World Index
MSCI Emerging Market Index
China
Japan
India
S&P500
Eurostoxx50
DAX
ISEQ
15.5%
26.0%
-14.1%
8.6%
14.1%
10.9%
10.3%
7.3%
29.0%
2012
2013
2014
10.2% 20.9% 9.8% -40.2% 30.9% 12.5% -4.9% 16.7%
34.4% 32.6% 39.7% -53.1% 78.7% 19.4% -18.2% 18.7%
-5.8% 135.1% 98.0% -64.9% 82.6% -12.8% -20.2% 5.8%
41.8% 8.1% -10.0% -41.1% 21.1% -1.3% -15.6% 25.6%
44.6% 48.8% 48.8% -51.8% 78.5% 19.1% -23.6% 28.0%
4.9% 15.8% 5.6% -37.0% 26.4% 15.1% 2.1% 16.0%
25.4% 19.2% 10.4% -41.8% 27.0% -1.8% -13.1% 19.6%
27.1% 22.0% 22.3% -40.4% 23.8% 16.1% -14.7% 29.1%
21.6% 30.6% -24.7% -65.1% 29.8% -0.1%
2.6% 20.4%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
27.5%
-2.3%
-3.9%
59.4%
9.8%
32.4%
22.7%
25.5%
35.7%
2.9% -1.9% -7.0%
-4.6% -17.2% -6.8%
52.9% 10.5% -24.1%
7.1%
9.1% -15.8%
30.1% -5.6% -12.1%
11.4% 0.2% -5.5%
1.2%
4.5% -9.8%
2.7%
9.6% -11.6%
15.1% 31.2% -6.6%
2015
2016
Source: Bloomberg.
Bonds 10yr
Ireland
UK
Spain
Portugal
USA
Germany
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
9.59%
6.62%
9.30%
10.06%
4.25%
9.23%
5.42%
7.66%
6.01%
5.87%
2.35%
5.88%
-0.17%
-0.47%
-1.08%
-1.18%
2.73%
-0.95%
1.23%
6.69%
1.56%
2.16%
10.31%
1.88%
7.89%
14.97%
9.82%
9.71%
19.74%
14.78%
3.89%
-0.65%
4.54%
4.91%
-7.30%
1.76%
-19.58%
9.43%
-5.67%
-10.25%
9.39%
6.81%
12.02%
15.90%
9.68%
-33.47%
15.24%
12.79%
34.64%
4.64%
4.69%
75.51%
4.01%
6.81%
12.45%
-4.99%
14.24%
10.98%
-5.92%
-1.72%
23.67%
12.13%
22.77%
31.85%
8.45%
13.44%
2011
2012
2015
2016
2.53% 2.65%
0.48% 5.18%
1.33% 1.70%
5.05% -2.18%
1.50% 4.62%
0.74% 4.36%
Source: Bloomberg EFFAS Government Bond Indices & FINRA Corporate Indices
Commodities
Gold
Brent Oil
Crude Oil
Copper
Silver
CRB Commodity Index
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
5.4%
34.1%
33.6%
38.9%
14.3%
3.3%
18.4%
45.8%
40.5%
40.6%
29.6%
3.4%
23.0%
3.2%
0.0%
40.6%
45.3%
19.6%
31.3%
54.2%
57.2%
5.9%
15.4%
14.1%
5.5%
-51.4%
-53.5%
-53.6%
-23.8%
-23.8%
24.0%
70.9%
77.9%
137.3%
49.3%
33.7%
29.7%
21.6%
15.1%
32.9%
83.7%
23.6%
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
10.5% -4.3% 2.0%
9.1% 30.0% -7.2%
1.3% -26.5% 10.2%
-8.3% 6.1% -4.2%
-6.6%
-3.3%
-3.3%
1.5%
-3.2%
-2.8%
-0.4%
1.5%
1.8%
-2.6%
4.6%
-0.5%
4.1%
2.2%
1.9%
0.4%
-12.1%
-6.5%
-6.0%
12.7%
-9.7%
-5.0%
-4.9%
8.9%
0.2%
5.9%
-5.6%
-0.5%
10.2% 7.0%
13.3% 3.5%
8.2% -7.1%
-22.7% 6.3%
-9.8% 8.2%
-7.4% 0.4%
2013
2014
2015
2016
-28.3%
-0.3%
7.2%
-7.0%
-35.9%
-5.7%
-1.5%
-48.3%
-45.9%
-16.8%
-19.5%
-4.1%
-10.5%
-36.4%
-31.3%
-24.0%
-11.3%
-14.6%
16.4%
-3.5%
-8.9%
-0.3%
7.9%
2.4%
Source: Bloomberg
Currencies
2009
Euro/USD
Euro/GBP
GBP/USD
US Dollar Index
8.0%
0.4%
7.6%
-7.0%
-12.6% 11.4%
-2.7% -2.0%
-10.2% 13.7%
12.8% -8.2%
Source: Bloomberg
23
Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Bond Returns
Indicative performance figures & maturity dates
Cantor Fitzgerald Equity & Commodity Linked Bonds:
Cantor Fitzgerald Bond Issue
GLOBAL DIVIDEND BOND
Underlying
Asset
(Ticker)
SDGR
Indicative
Initial
Strike
Indicative
Current
Level
Indicative
Underlying Asset
Performance
Option A
Participation
Rate
Option B
Participation
Rate
Option A
Indicative
Performance
Option B
Indicative
Performance
3960.34
5227.38
31.99%
80%
170%
25.59%
54.39%
DIVIDEND ARISTOCRATS BOND 1 SPXD10EE
1535.18
2003.56
30.51%
50%
145%
15.25%
44.24%
DIVIDEND ARISTOCRATS BOND 2 SPXD10EE
1522.93
2003.56
31.56%
50%
140%
15.78%
44.18%
DIVIDEND ARISTOCRATS GBP
SPXD10EE
1522.93
2003.56
31.56%
50%
140%
15.78%
44.18%
80% PROTECTED KICK OUT 1*
AAPL
PRU
BMW
VOD
86.37
1395.00
88.18
217.15
96.69
1257.50
75.15
219.70
11.95%
-9.86%
-14.78%
1.17%
Kick Out Level:
30% In Year 2
45% In Year 3
60% In Year 4
-14.78%
N/a
AAPL
GSK
BMW
VOD
94.72
1555.00
93.97
195.65
96.69
1399.50
75.15
219.70
2.08%
-10.00%
-20.03%
12.29%
30% In Year 2
45% In Year 3
60% In Year 4
-20.00%
N/a
30% In Year 2
45% In Year 3
60% In Year 4
-20.00%
N/a
30% In Year 2
45% In Year 3
60% In Year 4
-20.00%
N/a
Indicative Performance:
Kick Out Level:
RDSA
GSK
BMW
ALV
2346.50
1432.50
85.64
128.20
1647.50
1399.50
75.15
137.25
-29.79%
-2.30%
-12.25%
7.06%
Kick Out Level:
RDSA
GSK
RYA
ALV
2132.50
1485.00
8.56
138.45
1647.50
1399.50
14.29
137.25
-22.74%
-5.76%
66.84%
-0.87%
GOLDLNPM
1649.25
1234.90
-25.12%
-
-
12.00%
23.00%
OIL BOND
CO1
97.61
35.97
-63.15%
150%
275%
0.00%
-10.00%
CAPITAL SECURE MIN RETURN 1*
SX5E
2579.76
2945.75
14.19%
-
-
10.00%
11.50%
SX5E
2589.25
2945.75
13.77%
-
-
6.40%
12.95%
SX5E
2799.2
2945.75
5.24%
-
-
7.00%
N/a
SECURE INCOME & GROWTH*
SX5E
UKX
2161.87
5351.53
2945.75
6097.09
36.26%
13.93%
-
-
22.00%
N/a
CREDIT UNION EURO BONUS BOND* SX5E
3674.05
2945.75
-19.82%
-
-
0.00%
N/a
OIL & GAS KICKOUT NOTE*
XOM
RDSB
BP
FP
82.23
1717.00
391.70
44.33
80.15
1645.00
351.45
41.38
-2.53%
-4.19%
-10.28%
-6.67% Indicative Performance:
-
0.00%
N/a
OIL & GAS KICKOUT NOTE 2*
XOM
RDSB
BP
FP
77.28
1469.00
339.30
42.01
80.15
1645.00
351.45
41.38
3.71%
11.98%
3.58%
-1.51%
-
0.00%
N/a
REAL ESTATE KICKOUT NOTE*
SPG
UL
DLR
HCN
190.52
233.60
74.80
65.25
189.73
229.75
79.07
63.78
-0.41%
-1.65%
5.71%
-2.25%
-
0.00%
N/a
Kick Out Level:
GOLD BOND*
24
Cantor Fitzgerald Split Deposit Bonds
Underlying
Asset
(Ticker)
Indicative
Initial
Strike
Indicative
Current
Level
Indicative
Underlying
% Change
Option A
Participation
Rate
Option B
Participation
Rate
Option A
Indicative
Return
Option B
Indicative
Return
Split
Deposit
Return
SAFE HARBOUR BOND IV
BNPIHBEE
627.10
672.86
7.30%
80%
160%
5.84%
11.67%
10.00%
SAFE HARBOUR BOND GBP IV
BNPIHBEE
627.10
672.86
7.30%
80%
160%
5.84%
11.67%
10.00%
SAFE HARBOUR BOND GBP V
BNPIHBEE
618.72
672.86
8.75%
80%
160%
7.00%
14.00%
10.00%
SAFE HARBOUR BOND VI
BNPIHBEE
624.16
672.86
7.80%
70%
-
5.46%
N/a
10.00%
SAFE HARBOUR BOND VII
BNPIHBEE
627.26
672.86
7.27%
70%
-
5.09%
N/a
10.00%
SAFE HARBOUR BOND VIII
BNPIHBEE
629.75
672.86
6.85%
70%
-
4.79%
N/a
10.00%
Cantor Fitzgerald Bond Issue
All figures are indicative of underlying performance after participation only and represent the potential indicative return of the underlying strategy only,
had the investments matured on 29th February 2016.
*Indicative performance figures may also include a performance related bonus (if applicable). However final payment of this bonus will depend on the
underlying performance at next annual observation date or maturity. Please consult the Terms and Conditions in the relevant product brochure for further
information.
WARNING : Investments may fall as well as rise in value. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance
Please note that while your capital protected amount is secure on maturity, any indicative returns, including those figures quoted above are not secure
(other than any minimum interest return on maturity, if applicable). You may only receive your capital protected amount back. These are not
encashment values. The performance above is solely an indicative illustration of the current performance of the underlying assets tracked after
participation, gross of tax, and are NOT ENCASHMENT VALUES. If early encashment is possible, the value may be considerably lower than the original
investment amount. Please consult the Terms and Conditions in the relevant product brochure for further information.
Strike and Maturity Dates for Cantor Fitzgerald Bonds:
Product
Strike Date
Maturity Date
Real Estate Kick Out Note
18/12/2015
05/01/2021
Oil & Gas Kick Out Note 2
18/12/2015
05/01/2021
Oil & Gas Kick Out Note
30/10/2015
12/11/2020
80% Protected Kick Out 1
19/05/2014
28/05/2018
22/07/2014
30/07/2018
26/09/2014
03/10/2018
28/11/2014
05/12/2018
Capital Secure Min Return 1
21/02/2013
21/02/2019
08/04/2013
08/04/2019
30/05/2013
30/05/2018
Credit Union Euro Bonus Bond
17/04/2015
22/04/2021
Dividend Aristocrat Bond 1
27/05/2013
27/04/2017
Dividend Aristocrat Bond 2
26/07/2013
26/06/2017
Dividend Aristocrat Bond GBp
26/07/2013
26/06/2017
Global Dividend Bond
26/02/2013
26/01/2017
Gold Bond
21/03/2012
21/03/2016
Oil Bond
08/06/2012
16/05/2016
Safe Harbour Bond GBP V
19/10/2012
19/09/2016
Safe Harbour Bond IV
21/09/2012
22/08/2016
Safe Harbour Bond GBP IV
21/09/2012
22/08/2016
Safe Harbour Bond VI
26/11/2012
26/10/2016
Safe Harbour Bond VII
30/11/2012
01/11/2016
Safe Harbour Bond VIII
23/01/2013
23/12/2016
Secure Income & Growth
21/05/2012
21/11/2017
25
Disclaimer
Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd, (Cantor), is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd is a member
firm of the Irish stock Exchange and the London stock Exchange.
This report has been prepared by Cantor for information purposes only and has been prepared without regard to the
individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. The report is not intended to and does not
constitute personal recommendations/investment advice nor does it provide the sole basis for any evaluation of the
securities discussed. Specifically, the information contained in this report should not be taken as an offer or solicitation of
investment advice, or encourage the purchase or sale of any particular security. Not all recommendations are necessarily
suitable for all investors and Cantor recommend that specific advice should always be sought prior to investment, based
on the particular circumstances of the investor.
Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources, which Cantor believes to be reliable and all
reasonable efforts are made to present accurate information, Cantor give no warranty or guarantee as to, and do not accept
responsibility for, the correctness, completeness, timeliness or accuracy of the information provided or its transmission. Nor
shall Cantor, or any of its employees, directors or agents, be liable for any losses, damages, costs, claims, demands or expenses
of any kind whatsoever, whether direct or indirect, suffered or incurred in consequence of any use of, or reliance upon, the
information. Any person acting on the information contained in this report does so entirely at his or her own risk.
All estimates, views and opinions included in this report constitute Cantor’s judgment as of the date of the report but may
be subject to change without notice. Changes to assumptions may have a material impact on any recommendations made
herein.
Unless specifically indicated to the contrary this report has not been disclosed to the covered issuer(s) in advance of
publication.
Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance. The value of your investment may go down as well as up.
Investments denominated in foreign currencies are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates, which may have an adverse
affect on the value of the investments, sale proceeds, and on dividend or interest income. The income you get from your
investment may go down as well as up.
Figures quoted are estimates only; they are not a reliable guide to the future performance of this investment. It is noted
that research analysts' compensation is impacted upon by overall firm profitability and accordingly may be affected to
some extent by revenues arising from other Cantor business units including Fund Management and stockbroking. Revenues
in these business units may derive in part from the recommendations or views in this report. Notwithstanding, Cantor is
satisfied that the objectivity of views and recommendations contained in this report has not been compromised. Cantor
permits staff to own shares and/or derivative positions in the companies they disseminate or publish research, views and
recommendations on. Nonetheless Cantor is satisfied that the impartiality of research, views and recommendations remains
assured.
This report is only provided in the Us to major institutional investors as defined by s.15 a-6 of the securities Exchange Act,
1934 as amended. A Us recipient of this report shall not distribute or provide this report or any part thereof to any other
person.
Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure:
This is a Marketing Communication. It is not a research report as defined by MiFID nor is it intended as such. We are not
soliciting any action based on this material. It is for the general information of our clients.
Company Description
royal Dutch Shell: Royal Dutch Shell PLC, through subsidiaries, explores for, produces, and refines petroleum. The Company
produces fuels, chemicals, and lubricants. Shell owns and operates gasoline filling stations worldwide.
Exxon Mobil: Exxon Mobil Corporation operates petroleum and petrochemicals businesses on a worldwide basis. The
Company's operations include exploration and production of oil and gas, electric power generation, and coal and minerals
operations. Exxon Mobil also manufactures and markets fuels, lubricants, and chemicals.
iShares Global Energy EtF (IXC US): The iShares Global Energy ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index
composed of global equities in the energy sector.
EtF Securities Brent EtF: ETFS Brent 1mth (OILB) is designed to enable investors to gain a total return exposure to
movements in the price of ICE 1 month Brent crude oil futures contracts plus a collateral yield. The exposure is obtained
through fully funded uncollateralised swaps with Shell Trading Switzerland AG, a member of the Royal Dutch Shell Group.
26
amazon: Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include
books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products. Amazon offers
personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.
CrH: CRH PLC, a Fortune 500 company, is a diversified international building materials group which manufactures and
distributes a range of construction products such as heavy materials, elements to construct the frame and value-added
exterior products.
Smurfit Kappa Group: Smurfit Kappa Group PLC manufactures containerboards, solid boards, graphic boards, corrugated
and solid board packaging products.
Green rEIt: Green REIT plc operates as a property investment company. The Company invests in a portfolio of long-lease
and freehold, primarily commercial and mainly Dublin-based properties.
Hibernia rEIt: Hibernia REIT p.l.c. operates as a real estate investment trust. The Company invests in commercial properties
including offices, industrial properties, retail stores, warehousing and distribution centers, and other related property assets.
Hibernia focuses on properties located in Dublin, Ireland.
IrES rEIt: Irish Residential Properties REIT Plc is an Irish property investment company. The Company's focus is to acquire,
hold and manage investments primarily focused on multi-unit residential real estate and commercial property for third
party rental.
Historical Record of Recommendation:
royal Dutch Shell: We have been positive on Core Portfolio stock, Royal Dutch Shell, since 20/05/13 and no change has
been made to our recommendation since then.
Exxon Mobil: We have been positive on Core Portfolio stock, Exxon Mobil, since 09/12/2013 and no change has been made
to our recommendation since then.
amazon: We have an Outperform recommendation for Amazon since 26/07/13, and no changes have been made since
then.
CrH: CRH was added to the core portfolio on the 01/01/2016, we have upgraded our recommendation to outperform
from market perform.
Smurfit Kappa Group: We have added Smurfit Kappa to our core portfolio on the 01/01/2016 and we have upgraded our
recommendation from Market Perform to Outperform.
Green rEIt: We have an Outperform rating for Green REIT since 09/02/15 and no changes to the recommendation have
been made in the last 12 months.
Hibernia rEIt: We have an Outperform rating for Hibernia REIT since 22/08/14 and no changes to the recommendation
have been made in the last 12 months.
IrES rEIt: We have a Not Rated recommendation for IRES REIT.
Bank of Ireland: We have been positive on the outlook for Bank of Ireland since 27/07/15 changing our recommendation
to Outperform from Market Perform.
Bond Description: BKIR 7.375% AT1 Perpetual Bond
Bank of Ireland: Bank of Ireland provides a range of banking, life insurance and other financial services to customers in
Ireland and United Kingdom. Services include branch banking, personal and business loans, loan insurance, mortgages,
foreign exchange, correspondent banking, credit cards and stockbroking.
Source: Bloomberg
All regulatory disclosures pertaining to valuation methodologies, definition of the rating system and historical records of
the above recommendations can be found on the Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland website here:
http://www.cantorfitzgerald.ie/research_disclosures.php
27
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DUBLIN: 75 St. Stephen’s Green, Dublin 2, Ireland. Tel : +353 1 633 3800. Fax : +353 1 633 3856/+353 1 633 3857
CORK: 45 South Mall, Cork. Tel: +353 21 422 2122.
LIMERICK: Theatre Court, Lower Mallow Street, Limerick. Tel: +353 61 436500.
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email : ireland@cantor.com web : www.cantorfitzgerald.ie
Twitter : @cantorIreland
LinkedIn : Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland
Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd (Cantor) is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd is a member firm of the Irish Stock
Exchange and the London Stock Exchange.

Investment Journal - Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland

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