Yonge Subway Extension - Demand Forecasting Report

Yonge Subway Extension Demand Forecasting Report
January 2011
Prepared by: City and TTC Demand Forecasting Group
Yonge Subway Extension Station Design
Demand Forecasting Report
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Table of Contents
1
2
3
4
5
6
Introduction and Purpose
Description of Forecasting Work
Land Use Assumptions
Transit Network Assumptions
Forecast Results
Summary
List of Exhibits
Exhibit 1-1: Yonge Subway Extension
Exhibit 2-1: Disaggregation of Zone-Level Transit Trips
Exhibit 3-1: 500m Radius Around Yonge Subway Extension Stations
Exhibit 3-2: Traffic Zones along the Yonge Subway Extension
Exhibit 4-1: TTC Service Plan at Cummer and Steeles Stations
Exhibit 4-2: Transit City Plan
Exhibit 4-3: GO Transit Bus Service Plan at Richmond Hill Centre
Exhibit 4-4: YRT/VIVA Service Plan at Richmond Hill Centre Subway Station
Exhibit 4-5: YRT Service Plan at Steeles and Clark Stations
Exhibit 5-3-1 – Transit ROW and Technology Thresholds
List of Tables
Table 3-1: Regional Land Use Assumptions
Table 3-2: 2031 Land Use within 500m of Proposed Stations on Yonge Subway Extension
Table 3-3: 2031 Land Use in Traffic Zones along the Yonge Subway Extension
Table 4-1: Steeles Station Bus Service Plan
Table 4-2: Richmond Hill Centre Station Bus Service Plan
Table 4-3: GO Rail Service Plan
Table 4-4: Clark Station Bus Service Plan
Table 5-1-1: 2031 Yonge Subway Extension Forecast Station Activity
Table 5-1-2: Mode Split Model Results for York Region Traffic Zones along the Subway
Extension
Table 5-1-3: Richmond Hill Centre Subway Station Transfer Movements
Table 5-1-4 Langstaff (Longbridge) Subway Station Transfer Movements
Table 5-1-5: Royal Orchard Subway Station Transfer Movements
Table 5-1-6: Clark Subway Station Transfer Movements
Table 5-1-7: Steeles Subway Station Transfer Movements
Table 5-1-8: Cummer Subway Station Transfer Movements
Table 5-1-9: Finch Subway Station Transfer Movements
Table 5-2-1: Yonge Subway Extension Forecast - Base Run
Table 5-2-2: Yonge Subway Extension Forecast - without Royal Orchard Subway Station
Table 5-3-1: 2021 Yonge Subway Extension Forecast Station Activity
Table 5-4-1: Alighting Passengers South of and including Bloor-Yonge Subway Station
Appendices
Appendix A – Ridership Forecasting Process Flowchart
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INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE
This report documents the ridership forecasts for the Yonge Subway Extension with future
(2031) land use in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). These forecasts are to be used by
consultants in their preliminary designs for the stations on the subway extension.
Exhibit 1-1: Yonge Subway Extension
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DESCRIPTION OF FORECASTING WORK
The City of Toronto and Toronto Transit Commission’s (TTC’s) current forecasting process
was used to analyse the Yonge Subway Extension from Finch Station to Richmond Hill
Station at Yonge Street and Highway 7. This process involves the following:
-
updating the future (2031) land use in the study area
coding the Yonge Subway Extension in the City of Toronto and TTC forecasting
models
coding any changes in the feeder bus network
running the City of Toronto’s GTA model to produce transit demand matrices
disaggregating the demand matrices to better represent realistic trip origins and
destinations
assigning the disaggregated demand matrices to the TTC’s MADITUC model
generating statistics and interpreting the results
The models are coded to represent the 2031 AM peak period transit network, and ridership
forecasts are produced for the AM peak period for the year 2031.
The transit forecast is refined using the TTC’s disaggregation process in the MADITUC
model. In this disaggregation process, the transit matrix from the City of Toronto’s GTA
model is converted from zone-based trip origin-destinations to point-based trip origindestinations. These points are mainly based on TTS-observed origin and destination
locations within each zone. Additional origin and destination locations are added in areas
of high population or employment growth. Exhibit 2-1 shows an example of the level of
disaggregation within traffic zones in central Toronto.
This extra step of disaggregating the trip origins and destinations results in more realistic
walk distances to transit and a better distribution of transit trips to transit routes,
especially those in dense transit corridors.
The transit trip origins and destinations in zones around Yonge Subway Extension were
disaggregated in proportion to population and employment inside and outside a 500m
radius around each station on the extension. However, the model still allows access and
egress travelling to or from areas beyond the 500m radius around the stations. The
maximum distance the TTC MADITUC model allows customers to walk to or from transit is
2 km.
More information on the disaggregation process in the York Region zones around the
Yonge Subway Extension stations is in Section 3 of this report.
Yonge Subway Extension Station Design
Demand Forecasting Report
Exhibit 2-1: Disaggregation of Zone-Level Transit Trips Origins
Appendix A contains a flowchart of the demand forecasting process.
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Yonge Subway Extension Station Design
Demand Forecasting Report
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LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS
Future year (2031) land use assumptions are from the Official Plans for the Greater Toronto
Area.
Table 3-1: Regional Land Use Assumptions
Region
Source
Toronto
Flash Forward (2002)
plus potential growth in
select areas
Durham
2001 POP
2001 EMP
2031 POP
2031 EMP
2,450,800
1,453,600
2,966,300
1,916,900
Development Charges
study
527,100
166,300
849,800
310,900
York
York Region (April 2010
update)
772,000
386,000
1,536,700
780,400
Peel
Peel Region Official Plan
(August 2003 update)
981,700
517,800
1,574,500
841,600
Halton
Halton Region Official
Plan (June 2003 update)
389,400
169,000
592,300
308,000
Hamilton
1999-2001 TMP
498,100
192,500
597,200
248,000
TOTAL
5,619,100 2,885,200 8,116,800 4,405,800
Note: 2031 land use figures for Durham and Halton are not available thus 2021 land use figures are shown.
Future land use at the traffic zone level was used in the GTA model to generate trips
originating from and destined to each zone.
Yonge Subway Extension Station Design
Demand Forecasting Report
Exhibit 3-1: 500m Radius Around Yonge Subway Extension Stations
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Table 3-2: 2031 Land Use within 500m of Proposed
Stations on Yonge Subway Extension
Station
Residents
Units
Employment
Population
Richmond Hill Centre
8,900
17,850
15,250
Langstaff (Longbridge)
4,300
8,550
6,850
Royal Orchard
2,800
5,600
1,000
Clark
4,850
9,750
1,550
Steeles (York Region)
5,050
10,100
4,150
Steeles (Toronto)
-
2,450
2,300
Cummer
-
5,300
4,900
51,850
28,750
(all)
25,950
Source: York Region and City of Toronto
The traffic zones surrounding the Yonge Subway Extension stations are shown in Exhibit
3-2. The future land use in each zone and within 500 meters of each proposed station were
used in the process to disaggregate the transit demand matrix from the GTA model. A
higher concentration of land use near the stations results in denser transit trips originating
from and destined to locations near the station and compared to the remainder of the traffic
zone.
It is important to note that these projections do not include potential intensification around
subway stations within the City of Toronto where no planning studies have been undertaken
to date to assess potential development opportunities associated with the proposed subway
extension.
Yonge Subway Extension Station Design
Demand Forecasting Report
Exhibit 3-2: Traffic Zones along the Yonge Subway Extension
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Table 3-3: 2031 Land Use in Traffic Zones
along the Yonge Subway Extension
Traffic zone
Population
Employment
308
4,600
1,000
309
8,950
7,200
310
4,500
1,100
311
4,050
6,400
312
4,350
1,250
314
4,600
1,400
315
3,200
1,100
316
5,650
1,100
317
4,400
2,600
318
2,250
2,050
319
17,550
2,200
321
5,950
1,100
1100
8,850
3,050
1101
6,700
2,100
1103
1,700
1,150
1105
12,250
4,300
1127
6,200
7,650
1128
9,550
6,650
1147
8,400
2,400
1148
7,250
1,450
1149
3,650
400
1150
12,600
6,950
1151
12,950
3,300
(all)
160,250
67,950
Source: York Region and City of Toronto
Again, it should be noted that these projections do not include potential intensification
around subway stations within the City of Toronto where no planning studies have been
undertaken to date to assess potential development opportunities associated with the
proposed subway extension.
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Demand Forecasting Report
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TRANSIT NETWORK ASSUMPTIONS
The network assumptions included in the modelling of the 2031 Yonge Subway Extension
are listed below. All transit network changes are included in the both the GTA Model
network and the MADITUC Model networks. The descriptions are followed by exhibits
showing the new transit routings and tables listing the speeds and headways for each
route.
TTC Network
Yonge Subway Extension (see Exhibit 1-1)
- Yonge Subway is extended from Finch to Richmond Hill Centre (Yonge St and Highway
7) with stops at Cummer, Steeles, Clark, Royal Orchard, Langstaff (Longbridge) and
Richmond Hill Centre
TTC Feeder Bus Route Changes (Exhibit 4-1, Table 4-1)
- 7 Bathurst is extend to Steeles Station via Steeles Ave W
- 11 Bayview is extended to Steeles Station via Steeles Ave E
- 53 Steeles East terminates at Steeles Station via Steeles Ave E
- 60 Steeles West terminates at Steeles Station via Steeles Ave W
- 98 Willowdale is extended to Steeles Station via Steeles Ave E
- 98A Senlac is extended to Steeles Station via Steeles Ave W
Exhibit 4-1: TTC Service Plan at Cummer and Steeles Stations
Provided by MRC
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Table 4-1: Steeles Station Bus Service Plan
Route
Type
Future A.M.
Peak Headway
(minutes)
Notes
Toronto Transit Commission
60 Steeles West
Terminating
60B Finch to Martin Grove
N/A
60C Finch to York U
7'30"
60D Finch to Hwy 27
7'30"
60E Finch to Kipling Express
12'00"
2'51"
Combined Average
53 Steeles East
60B operates during evenings
only. Combined headway of 60C
and 60D is 3'45".
Terminating
53 Finch to Pharmacy
12'00"
53A Finch to Staines
N/A
53B Finch to Markham Road
12'00"
53D Finch to Steeles/Yonge
8'00"
53E Finch to Markham Rd Express
9'00"
53F Finch to Staines Express
9'00"
Combined Average
1'57"
7 Bathurst
Terminating
5'30"
97B Yonge
Terminating
20'00"
(Future)
98A Senlac
Terminating
20'00"
(Future)
98 Willowdale
Terminating
20'00"
(Future)
11 Bayview
Terminating
8'00"
(Future)
53A operates during off-peaks
only. 53D operates SB only.
Combined headway of 53 and
53B is 6' 00". 53D will be
discontinued March 2010.
York Region Transit
99 Yonge South
10'00"
91 Bayview South
10'00"
88 Bathurst
York Region Transit headways provided by MRC
10'00"
Transit City LRT Network Plan (Exhibit 4-2)
- Spadina Subway Extension to the Vaughan Corporate Centre
- Transit City LRT lines (Etobicoke-Finch West, Sheppard East, Eglinton Crosstown, Jane
(to Steeles West Station), Don Mills (to Highway 7), Scarborough-Malvern and
Waterfront West).
- Scarborough RT extension to Malvern Town Centre
- Feeder bus updates associated with Transit City
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Exhibit 4-2: Transit City Plan
GO Transit Network
-
the following GO Transit Bus routes are connected to Richmond Hill Subway Station, as
shown in Exhibit 4-3 and described in Table 4-2.
o 32 Brampton Trinity Common
o Hwy 404 Northern Route
o 40 Airport Express
o 51 Hwy 407 East (Pickering)
o 52 Hwy 407 East (Oshawa)
o 54 Hwy 406 East (Mount Joy)
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Exhibit 4-3: GO Transit Bus Service Plan at Richmond Hill Centre
Provided by MRC
YRT/VIVA Network
-
The following York Region Transit (YRT)/VIVA routes are connected to Richmond Hill
Subway Station, as shown in Exhibit 4-4:
o 1 Highway 7
o 99 Yonge South NB
o 300 Business Express
o 99 Yonge South SB
o 83/83A Trench
o 301 Markham Express
o 85 Rutherford/Carville (East
o 302 Unionville Express
Branch)
o 303 Cornell Express
o 85 Rutherford/Carville (West
o 360 Maple Express
Branch)
o New Langstaff Route
o 87 Langstaff Maple
o Viva Blue
o 88A Bathurst to RHC
o Viva Purple EB
o 91A/B/E Bayview South
o Viva Purple WB
-
The following YRT routes are connected to Clark Station, as shown in Exhibit 4-5:
o 2/2A/5 Milliken/14th Avenue/Clark
o 23 Thornhill Woods
o 77 Highway 7
o 99 Yonge South S
-
The following YRT routes are connected to Steeles Station, as shown in Exhibit 4-5:
o 77 Highway 7
o 88 Bathurst
o 91 Bayview South
o 99 Yonge South
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Demand Forecasting Report
Exhibit 4-4: YRT/VIVA Service Plan at Richmond Hill Centre Subway Station
Provided by MRC
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Table 4-2: Richmond Hill Centre Station Bus Service Plan
Future A.M.
Peak
Route
Type
Headway
(minutes)
York Region Transit
Notes
300 Business Express
Terminating
Express
Peak direction trippers
301 Markham Express
Terminating
Express
Peak direction trippers
302 Unionville Express
Terminating
Express
Peak direction trippers
303 Cornell Express
Terminating
Express
Peak direction trippers
360 Maple Express
Terminating
20'00"
TBD
TBD
91A/B/E Bayview South
Terminating
10'00"
1 Highway 7
Terminating
15'00"
Through
10'00"
Terminating
10'00"
Through
10'00"
85 Rutherford/Carville (East Branch)
Terminating
10'00"
83/83A Trench
Terminating
15'00"
87 Langstaff Maple
Terminating
15'00"
88A Bathurst to RHC
Terminating
10'00"
Viva Blue
Terminating
3'00"
Viva Purple EB
Through
4'00"
Viva Purple WB
Through
4'00"
32 Brampton Trinity Common
Terminating
15'00"
Hwy 404 Northern Route
Terminating
20'00"
40 Airport Express
Terminating
30'00"
Through
5'00"
Through
5'00"
New Langstaff Route
99 Yonge South NB
85 Rutherford/Carville (West Branch)
99 Yonge South SB
GO Transit
Without 407 Transitway
52 Hwy 407 East (Oshawa) WB
51 Hwy 407 East (Pickering) WB
54 Hwy 406 East (Mount Joy) WB
52 Hwy 407 East (Oshawa) EB
51 Hwy 407 East (Pickering) EB
54 Hwy 406 East (Mount Joy) EB
Provided by MRC
YRT to confirm
Assumed subway extension
replaces Viva Pink.
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Table 4-3: GO Rail Service Plan - 2021
Future A.M.
Peak Inbound
Headway
(minutes)
Future A.M.
Peak Outbound
Headway
(minutes)
Lakeshore West
7.5
30
Hamilton - Union
Lakeshore East
7.5
30
Oshawa - Union
Milton
12
30
Milton - Union
Georgetown
12
30
Georgetown - Union
Stouffville
15
30
Lincolnville – Union
Barrie
15
30
Barrie – Union
Richmond Hill
15
30
Bloomington – Union
Bolton
60
-
Bolton - Union
Seaton
60
-
Locust Hill – Summerhill
Havelock
60
-
Seaton - Summerhill
Route
Notes
GO Rail Transit
The GO Rail network is based on the 2021 projected GO Train service information that
was provided by GO Transit to the City of Toronto Planning Staff in December of 2009.
The Inbound direction is towards Union Station. The Outbound direction is away from
Union Station.
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Exhibit 4-5: YRT Service Plan at Steeles and Clark Stations
Provided by MRC
Table 4-4: Clark Station Bus Service Plan
Type
Future A.M.
Peak Headway
(minutes)
Terminating
15'00"
2/2A/5
Milliken/14th Avenue/Clark (EB)
Through
10'00"
Combined Route 2/2A and Route 5
2/2A/5
Milliken/14th Avenue/Clark (WB)
Through
10'00"
Combined Route 2/2A and Route 5
99 Yonge South S (SB)
Through
10'00"
99 Yonge South S (NB)
Through
10'00"
Terminating
15'00"
Route
Notes
York Region Transit
77 Highway 7
23 Thornhill Woods
Provided by MRC
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FORECAST RESULTS
5-1
Yonge Subway Extension
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This section presents the transit forecasts on the subway extension for the year 2031. It
also contains tables that show the AM peak hour movements at each of the proposed
subway stations.
Table 5-1-1: 2031 Yonge Subway Extension Forecast Station Activity
2031 AM Peak Hour Southbound Subway Boardings, Alightings and Link Volumes
Scenario – existing
(2006) TTC trips
assigned to subway
extension
Southbound
Initial
Transfer
Initial
Transfer
Link
Volume
Departing
Station
580
12720
0
0
13300
1970
0
10
0
15260
Boarding
Station Name
Richmond Hill Centre
Langstaff (Longbridge)
Alighting
Park and
Ride
Total
Persons
Link Volume
Departing Station
4510
1590
5940
Royal Orchard
160
30
60
0
15390
5940
Clark
310
330
90
0
15940
6380
Steeles
270
2930
30
220
18890
8910
Cummer
450
870
50
30
20130
10120
24700
Finch
2340
3060
210
620
Total
6080
19940
450
870
1050
15180
2640
2031 AM Peak Hour Northbound Subway Boardings, Alightings and Link Volumes
Scenario – existing
(2006) TTC trips
assigned to subway
extension
Northbound
Initial
Transfer
Initial
Transfer
Link
Volume
Departing
Station
0
0
60
730
0
Boarding
Station Name
Richmond Hill Centre
Alighting
Park and
Ride
Total
Persons
Existing 2006 Transit
Users*
0
Langstaff (Longbridge)
80
0
200
0
790
Royal Orchard
30
40
20
0
910
500
Clark
90
10
40
0
860
500
Steeles
20
80
300
1150
800
500
Cummer
100
40
400
130
2150
Finch
160
250
710
1130
2540
Total
480
420
1730
3140
0
400
1300
0
1500
0
Includes a 10% increase to account for differences between MADITUC and the GTA Model.
*Existing riders are estimated by assigning the 2006 Transportation Tomorrow Survey demand to the 2031
YSE network. Adjustments were made for 2650 southbound auto access trips to Finch Station in 2006 that
would likely drive to RHC or Langstaff.
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In the 2031 Yonge Subway Extension forecast, about 820 AM peak hour southbound riders
at Richmond Hill Centre were reallocated from the Yonge Subway to the Richmond Hill GO
Train. The reallocation was needed to account for the reduced fare on YRT buses for riders
transferring to GO Rail and customers preference for the quality of GO Rail service.
Table 5-1-2 – Mode Split Model Results for York Region Traffic Zones along the Subway
Extension
Mode Split for
Mode Split for
Traffic Zone Trips Originating Trips Destined to
Zone
from Zone
1100
15.1%
11.7%
1101
12.6%
7.5%
1102
14.2%
3.6%
1103
16.2%
12.5%
1105
14.7%
8.6%
1127
17.4%
10.5%
1128
18.4%
8.5%
1147
16.0%
9.6%
1148
16.5%
9.0%
1149
11.7%
4.4%
1150
16.4%
11.1%
1151
13.8%
5.5%
Table 5-1-3: Richmond Hill Centre Subway Station Transfer Movements
AM Peak Hour
TRANSFERS
INTO STATION
SUBWAY
GO BUS
GO TRAIN
YRT/VIVA
DIR
NB
EB
WB
SB
EB
SB
WB
WALK IN
PARK 'N' RIDE
TOTAL
SUBWAY
SB
0
70
760
460
680
5090
5660
580
0
13300
GO BUS
EB
WB
60
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
110
20
30
100
10
70
10
30
0
0
270
220
OUT
GO
TRAIN
SB
0
50
20
0
200
300
220
30
300
1120
OF STATION
YRT/VIVA
EB
NB
WB
160
240
40
0
10
0
10
40
50
0
10
0
10
40
10
160
0
70
0
70
80
10
30
20
0
0
0
350
440
270
Table 5-1-4 Langstaff (Longbridge) Subway Station Transfer Movements
AM Peak Hour
TRANSFERS
INTO STATION
SUBWAY
PARK'N'RIDE
WALK IN
TOTAL
DIR
NB
SB
OUT OF STATION
WALK
SUBWAY
OUT
NB
SB
0
0
200
0
0
10
0
1750
0
80
220
0
80
1970
210
TOTAL
200
10
1750
300
2260
WALK
OUT
290
0
20
10
0
30
20
0
0
370
TOTAL
790
130
950
480
1070
5780
6130
710
300
16340
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Table 5-1-5: Royal Orchard Subway Station Transfer Movements
AM Peak Hour
TRANSFERS
INTO STATION
SUBWAY
YRT
WALK IN
TOTAL
DIR
NB
SB
WB
SUBWAY
NB
SB
0
0
0
0
40
30
30
160
70
190
OUT OF STATION
WALK
YRT
OUT
EB
0
20
0
70
0
0
10
0
10
90
TOTAL
20
70
70
200
360
Table 5-1-6: Clark Subway Station Transfer Movements
AM Peak Hour
TRANSFERS
INTO STATION
SUBWAY
YRT
DIR
NB
SB
EB
NB
SB
WALK IN
TOTAL
SUBWAY
NB
SB
0
0
0
0
0
170
10
150
0
10
90
310
100
640
OUT OF STATION
YRT
WALK OUT
NB
WB
0
0
40
0
0
90
0
0
10
0
0
0
0
0
10
20
20
0
20
20
150
TOTAL
40
90
180
160
20
440
930
Table 5-1-7: Steeles Subway Station Transfer Movements
AM Peak Hour
TRANSFERS
INTO STATION
SUBWAY
TTC BUS
YRT
DIR
NB
SB
EB
WB
EB
WB
WALK IN
TOTAL
SUBWAY
NB
SB
0
0
0
0
40
780
30
1260
0
700
0
190
20
270
90
3200
TTC
EB
470
120
60
0
10
0
30
690
OUT OF STATION
BUS
YRT
WB
EB
WB
400
180
110
100
10
0
0
20
0
240
0
10
0
20
0
10
0
0
50
0
0
800
230
120
WALK OUT
300
30
80
50
30
0
0
490
Table 5-1-8: Cummer Subway Station Transfer Movements
AM Peak Hour
TRANSFERS
INTO STATION
SUBWAY
TTC BUS
WALK IN
TOTAL
DIR
NB
SB
EB
WB
SUBWAY
NB
SB
0
0
0
0
0
250
30
630
100
450
130
1330
OUT OF STATION
TTC BUS
WALK OUT
EB
WB
120
10
400
30
0
50
0
0
0
0
0
50
10
0
0
160
10
500
TOTAL
530
80
250
710
560
2130
TOTAL
1460
260
980
1590
760
200
370
5620
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Table 5-1-9: Finch Subway Station Transfer Movements
AM Peak Hour
TRANSFERS
INTO STATION
SUBWAY
GO BUS
TTC BUS
TTC LRT
WALK IN
PARK'N"RIDE
TOTAL
5-2
DIR
NB
SB
NB
SB
EB
WB
EB
WB
SUBWAY
NB
SB
0
0
0
0
20
0
0
0
10
60
110
1980
110
1010
0
0
160
1190
0
1150
410
5390
OUT OF STATION
TTC BUS
TTC LRT
EB
WB
520
610
320
300
0
0
0
0
0
20
0
690
330
0
0
0
80
120
0
0
1250
1740
WALK OUT
710
210
0
0
0
220
160
0
0
0
1300
TOTAL
1840
830
20
0
90
3000
1610
0
1550
1150
10090
Sensitivity Analysis on the Removal of Royal Orchard Subway Station
Table 5-2-1 below shows the base scenario Yonge Subway Extension boardings and
alightings by direction. The numbers in the base scenario table were compared to the
boardings and alightings in a scenario with Royal Orchard Subway station removed. The
comparison shows the removal of Royal Orchard Subway station would not significantly
affect ridership on the subway extension.
Table 5-2-1: Yonge Subway Extension Forecast - Base Run
AM Peak Hour
Station Name
Richmond Hill Centre
Langstaff
Royal Orchard
Clark
Steeles
Cummer
Finch
Totals
Southbound
Boarding
13300
1970
190
640
3200
1320
5400
26020
Northbound
Alighting
0
10
60
90
250
80
830
1320
Link Volume
Departing
Station
13300
15260
15390
15940
18890
20130
24700
Boarding
0
80
70
100
100
140
410
900
Alighting
790
200
20
40
1450
530
1840
4870
Link Volume
Departing
Station
0
790
910
860
800
2150
2540
Table 5-2-2: Yonge Subway Extension Forecast - without Royal Orchard Subway Station
AM Peak Hour
Station Name
Richmond Hill Centre
Langstaff
Royal Orchard
Clark
Steeles
Cummer
Finch
Totals
Southbound
Boarding
13260
2100
0
680
3220
1330
5400
25990
Northbound
Alighting
0
10
0
120
260
70
830
1290
Link Volume
Departing
Station
13260
15350
15350
15910
18870
20130
24700
Boarding
0
120
0
100
110
140
420
890
Alighting
770
210
0
50
1460
530
1840
4860
Link Volume
Departing
Station
0
770
860
860
810
2160
2550
Yonge Subway Extension Station Design
Demand Forecasting Report
23
Removing Royal Orchard Subway station does not significantly affect ridership on the
Yonge Subway Extension. Total southbound AM peak hour boardings decline by only 30
passengers when Royal Orchard Subway station is not included in the extension. Total
northbound alightings decline by only 10 when Royal Orchard station is not included in the
extension. Comparing tables 5-2-1 and 5-2-2 shows that the majority of customers
boarding or alighting at Royal Orchard Station would use Langstaff station or Clark station
if Royal Orchard station is not built.
5-3
Forecast Link Volumes on Subway Extension in 2021
Yonge Subway Extension forecasts were requested using the 2021 land use. The purpose
of this exercise was to estimate the link volumes on the extension to determine if these
volumes would support the subway mode by the year 2021.
Land use forecasts for 2021 were provided by York Region and applied to the forecasting
models. A simplified approach was used to estimate 2021 forecasts. The same trip rates,
distribution, and mode split from the 2031 results were applied to the 2021 land use. This
approach would generate a ‘high-end’ forecast for 2021.
The results of this analysis indicate an AM peak hour SB link volume of 11,570 from
Richmond Hill station. The AM peak hour SB link volume from Steeles station was
forecast to be 16,430.
Table 5-3-1: 2021 Yonge Subway Extension Forecast Station Activity
2021 AM Peak Hour Estimated Yonge Subway Extension Ridership
Southbound
Link Volume
Station Name
Richmond Hill Centre
Langstaff (Longbridge)
Royal Orchard
Clark
Steeles
Boarding
Alighting
11,570
1,710
170
560
2,780
0
10
50
80
220
16,790
360
Departing Stn
11,570
13,270
13,390
13,870
16,430
Northbound
Link Volume
Station Name
Richmond Hill Centre
Langstaff (Longbridge)
Royal Orchard
Clark
Steeles
Boarding
Alighting
0
70
60
90
90
720
180
20
40
1,320
310
2,280
Departing Stn
0
720
830
790
740
Yonge Subway Extension Station Design
Demand Forecasting Report
24
The southbound ridership was calculated by comparing the 2031 and 2021 York Region
population and applying a factor based on the difference. The 2021 population in York
Region is forecast to be 87% of the 2031 population. Therefore the 2031 southbound
boardings, alightings and link volumes are assumed to be 87% of the 2031 values. The
population was used for the AM peak southbound trips because most of these trips are
home based.
The northbound ridership was calculated by comparing the 2031 and 2021 York Region
employment and applying a factor based on the difference. The 2021 employment in York
Region is forecast to be 91% of the 2031 population. Therefore the 2031 northbound
boardings, alightings and link volumes are assumed to be 91% of the 2031 values. The
employment was used for the AM peak northbound trips because most of these trips are
work trips.
Exhibit 5-3-1 – Transit ROW and Technology Thresholds
Exhibit 5-3-1 above shows order-of-magnitude thresholds for transit technologies and
ROWs. It shows that subway mode can be justified when link volumes reach about
10,000 passengers per hour.
Yonge Subway Extension Station Design
Demand Forecasting Report
5-4
25
Sensitivity Test – Relationship Between the Yonge Subway Extension and the
Richmond Hill GO Rail line
The relationship between the Yonge Subway line in the vicinity of Richmond Hill Centre
and the Richmond Hill GO Rail line is important. Some passengers have a choice between
the two services determined by the relative speed, frequency and fares of the two
services. As the primary purpose of the current project relates to the sizing subway station
and facility elements on the subway extension, the base model assumed that GO Rail
services in the peak period would be consistent with the GO 2020 plan i.e. 15 minute
headways and no electrification. The assumption was also made that existing fare
structures would be in place. It is beyond the scope of this study to assess the feasibility
or likelihood of more significant improvements to the GO Richmond Hill line speed,
frequency and fares. However, for completeness, an analysis was done to investigate the
potential for diversions from the subway extension to GO Richmond Hill line.
A simplistic approach used was to estimate the number of subway passengers that might
consider diverting from the subway extension to the GO Richmond Hill line by isolating the
AM peak period subway passenger trips that board at Richmond Hill subway station and
are destined to locations in the downtown core. The downtown core was defined as
south of College Street. Riders boarding the subway extension at stations south of
Richmond Hill Centre, and riders alighting at stations north of Dundas were not considered
due to the complexity of assessing the whether these riders might switch to the GO
Richmond Hill line. However, improved GO Rail speeds, frequencies and fare incentives
could potentially attract other subway riders to the Richmond Hill GO line.
The 2031 base model run identifies approximately 6,700 AM peak hour passenger trips
from Langstaff GO Rail station or Richmond Hill Centre subway station destined to
downtown. These 6,700 AM peak hour trips have the potential to be taken on either the
Yonge Subway Extension or the Richmond Hill GO rail line. The 2031 base model run
assigns 5,600 (85%) to the Yonge Subway and 1,100 (15%) to GO Rail.
Table 5-4-1 shows the number of customers from Richmond Hill Centre subway station
destined to subway stations south of Bloor/Yonge station. This table shows the 5,600 AM
peak hour trips destined to locations south of College station.
Yonge Subway Extension Station Design
Demand Forecasting Report
26
Table 5-4-1: Alighting Passengers South of Bloor-Yonge Subway Station – 2031 AM Peak Hour
Boarding Station
Percentage of
Richmond Hill
RHC Boardings
Centre (RHC)
Total Subway
Boardings ->
13,300
Alighting Stations
south of and including
….
Bloor-Yonge
10,200
Wellesley
7,100
College
6,800
Dundas
5,600
Queen
4,600
King
3,800
Union and Beyond*
2,100
*Includes all riders travelling around the loop to the
University Subway.
100%
77%
53%
51%
42%
35%
29%
16%
2031 AM Peak Hour
Southbound GO Rail boardings at Langstaff GO Station
Richmond Hill Centre subway boardings alighting south of College Stn
1,100
5,600
Potential GO Rail market at Richmond Hill Centre/Langstaff GO Stn
6,700
This 85% subway and 15% GO Rail assignment assumes that the speed of the GO
Richmond Hill line remains as it is currently operated, there are no changes in fare
integration between GO Rail and the TTC and that the frequency of service on the
Richmond Hill GO Rail line is every 15 minutes at peak times as per information provided
from GO Transit to City of Toronto Planning staff in December of 2009.
Changes to these assumptions would result in some of these passengers shifting between
GO Rail and subway. For example, conversion of the GO Richmond Hill line to the 5
minute, higher-speed service envisioned in Metrolinx RTP plan for Express Rail services
would attract many of these passengers away from the subway to the GO Rail line.
An extreme assumption would be that all these trips would shift from the subway to GO
Rail, in which case the subway ridership would be reduced by 5,600 riders with a
corresponding increase in GO Rail ridership. Therefore total subway boardings at
Richmond Hill Centre could range from about 9,700 to 13,300 riders in the AM peak hour
depending on the level of GO Rail service. This range corresponds to southbound
passenger volumes of 13,300 to 18,900 arriving at Steeles subway station.
This simplistic analysis shows a significant number of riders could be attracted from the
Yonge Subway extension to a GO Richmond Hill service with sufficient improvements to
its speed, frequency and fares. This potential reduction in passenger volumes would also
directly reduce passenger flows on the peak load point of the Yonge subway south of
Wellesley station. This is an important issue for the planning of rapid transit services into
downtown Toronto and is the subject of separate on-going studies by both Metrolinx
(Union Station 2031 Passenger Demand Study) and the TTC (Downtown Rapid Transit
Expansion Study (DRTES)).
Yonge Subway Extension Station Design
Demand Forecasting Report
6
27
SUMMARY
This report documents the ridership forecasts for the Yonge Subway Extension operating
between Finch subway station and Richmond Hill Centre at Yonge Street and Highway 7.
The future subway forecasts in this report are to be used to assist consultants in the designs
for each station on the subway extension. The sensitivity analysis of the removal of Royal
Orchard Subway station shows that subway ridership is not significantly affected.
Yonge Subway Extension Station Design
Demand Forecasting Report
Appendix A – Forecasting Process Flowchart
28