Data Storage Trends and Directions

Data Storage Trends and
Directions
Tom Coughlin
Coughlin Associates &
Peripheral Research Corporation
Outline
•
•
•
•
•
The difficulty of predictions
Drivers for storage growth
Technology growth
Pricing trends
Drive growth areas and drive/component
vendors
• Mobile storage growth
• Network storage, tape, optical storage
• Industry Status and Summary
The Aberrant Mirror
• An aberrant mirror gives a distorted view of
the world, we draw an analogy to our
always inaccurate view of the future.
• Correction of this aberration occurs over
time as possibilities become certainties
“Time is nature’s way of preventing
everything from happening at once.”
Graffito
US Economy 1998 to 2001
“The real Y2K problem” (1)
…and 2001 is worse!!!
US Economy 1998 to 2001
“The real Y2K problem” (2)
In Q2 2001:
• Investment in computers and peripherals
dropped 30.1% (further drop in Q3)
• Business Investment declined 14.6%,
software and equipment investment fell
15.1% (worse in Q3)
• GDP growth increase was only 0.2% from
Q1 2001 (Q3 -0.4%, negative growth)
Drive Projections History (19972000 PRC)
300
Drive Shipments (M)
280
260
240
220
200
180
1997 Proj
1998 Proj
1999 Proj
2000 Proj
2001 Proj
Actual
160
140
120
100
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Desktop Drive Average Components/Drive
Ratios
(Source: IDC May 2001)
4
Heads/Drive
Disks/Drive
Components/Drive
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
History of PRC Head Volume Forecasts
(Source: PRC 1997-2000)
Units (M)
2000
1998 Forecast
1999 Forecast
2000 Forecast
Actual
1500
1000
500
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
History of PRC Disk Volume Forecasts
(Source: PRC 1997-August 2001)
900
1997
800
1998
1999
2000
Units (M)
700
2001E
Actual
600
500
400
300
200
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Drivers for Storage Growth
• Growth in digital information
from faster processors and the
digitization of human content
(from literature, audio, and
video to our genes)
• Ever lower cost of digital data
storage
• Increasing availability of high
data rate access
• New applications inspired by
low cost that generate even
more digital information
Hans Moravec, “When will computer hardware match the human brain?” Vol. 1, March 1998, Journal of Transhumanism
GROWTH OF MOBILE INTERNET DEVICES TO 2004
25
20
Millions
Handheld Companions
Smartphones x 10
15
Car Clients
Digital STBs
10
Video Game Players
5
0
2000
Source: IDC
2001
2002
2003
2004
Residential Broadband Projections
$BILLIONS
150
Terrestrial Wireless
Satellite
Cable Modem
xDSL
100
50
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Wireless
0
0.07
0.26
0.85
1.54
2.56
4
5.95
8.34
11.16
Satellite
0.03
0.07
0.2
0.65
1.9
4.58
10.49
18.48
27.64
39.62
Cable Modem
0.57
1.52
4.24
8.54
13.72
19.99
26.86
34.33
41
46.78
0.2
0.69
2.2
5.332
9.93
15.57
21.45
27.2
33
38.49
xDSL
Source: Pioneer Consulting, "Global Broadband Access Markets: xDSL, Cable Modems and the Threat from Broadband Satellite,
Wireless and All-Optical Solutions,” Executive Summary, October 1998; Centennial Investments
NON-PC REMOVABLE STORAGE DEVICE
OPPORTUNITY FORECAST
(UNITS MILLIONS)
APPLICATION
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
HANDHELD COMP.
9.6
DIGITAL STILL CAM.
7.9
CAMCORDERS
15.7
DIGITAL AUDIO
4.0
HAND HELD GPS
3.7
SET-TOP BOX
24.8
INDUST. NETWORK
3.0
SUB-TOTAL
68.7
DIGITAL CELL
326.1
TOTALS
394.8
13.3
12.3
16.1
7.8
6.3
33.3
3.1
92.2
421.1
513.3
18.1
24.3
17.9
22.8
16.3
16.6
13.3
19.1
10.9
13.8
43.3
52.1
3.2
3.3
123.0 152.0
532.5 585.0
655.5 737.0
29.8
27.9
16.8
24.2
16.7
58.9
3.4
177.7
622.0
799.7
World Wide Storage Capacity of Disk Memory
(In PetaBytes, Source: Disk/Trend plus projection to 2004)
90000
80000
70000
Mega:
106
Giga:
109
50000
Tera:
1012
40000
Peta:
1015
Exa:
1018
Zetta:
1021
Yotta:
1024
60000
30000
20000
10000
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Technology Growth Areas and Concerns
• Data coding, compression, and error correction:
– How to deal with reducing SNR
– Variations for niche markets--e.g. video storage
– Implications of perpendicular recording
• Servo
– Time for servo writing, self servo writing
– Higher TPI requirements
• Areal density growth
– Capital investments needed, particularly for head
development
– Flight of talent to more lucrative fields may limit
creativity available to industry
– Changes from longitudinal to perpendicular recording
17
19
17
19
15
13
11
9
7
5
3
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1
Market Penetration
(%)
Time
20000
15000
10000
5000
Time
15
13
11
9
7
5
3
0
1
• Is there a finite
technology pool or
limited resources in
technology growth?
• Or could technology
growth be ever
exponential?
• Limitations could be
economic rather than
technical.
Population Growth
Growth Models
for Technology
AREAL DENSITY RACE
(Source: PRC, August 2001)
COMPANY
SIZE
PRODUCT
MXTR 96147U8
3.5
IBM 40GV
3.5
IBM
1.0
MXTR DM80
3.5
QTM FBAS
3.5
QTM ATLASIII
3.5
MXTR 531DX
3.5
TOSHIBA MK1002 2.5
IBM
2.5
MXTR
3.5
TOSHIBA MK4018 2.5
DEMONSTRATION
SEAGATE
R-R/KOMAG
FUJITSU
R-R/KOMAG/HTCH/GUZIK
FUJITSU
CAPACITY AREAL
(GB)
DENSITY
Gb/in2
61.4
11.3
40.0
14.3
1.0
15.2
81.0
14.7
80.0
14.7
73.4
179
15.0
22.5
10.0
22.4
30.0
25.7
40.0
28.3
40.0
35.1
45.0
50.0
56.0
63.2
106.5
kTPI
kBPI
Time
27.3
35.0
35.0
34.0
35.4
40.0
46.0
412
415
435
402
417
448
489
54.0
56.8
524
625
3/00
3/00
6/00
7/00
7/00
10/00
2/01
3/01
3/01
6/01
6/01
70.0
90.0
82.7
105
142
640
552
678
600
750
3/00
3/00
6/00
10/00
8/01
AREAL DENSITY PROGRESSION
TECHNOLOGY DEMONSTRATIONS / PRODUCTS
(Source: PRC, 2001)
120
Areal Density (Gb/in2)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Q1 2000 Q2 2000 Q3 2000 Q4 2000 Q1 2001 Q2 2001 Q3 2001
TECHNOLOGY
PRODUCT
Average Desktop Drive Prices vs. Time
(Sources: Disktrend 1999 and
PRC 2001)
230
210
Ave. Desktop Price
3 per. Mov. Avg. (Ave. Desktop Price)
190
Price ($)
170
150
130
110
90
70
50
1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H Q1 Q2 Q3
95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 01
DISK DRIVE UNITS & AVERAGE SALES
PRICES 1999-2001
(Source: PRC 2001)
MFG.
Q3 99
UNIT/$
MAXTOR
5.8/$100
QUANTUM
Q1 00
UNIT/$
Q2 00
UNIT/$
Q3 00
UNIT/$
Q4 00
UNIT/$
Q1 01
UNIT/$
Q2 01
UNIT/$
Q3 01
UNIT/$
6.8/$102
6.6/$105
6.5/$102
6.5/$95
7.4/$98
6.7/$94
12.1/$85
12.5/$82
6.9/$111
8.7/$102
8.6/$105
8.2/$105
9.0/$92
6.8/$104 6.6/NA
SEAGATE
9.7/$161
10.3/$149 10.5/$140 10.3/$140
11.6/$141 10.6/NA
11.2/NA
10.6/NA
11.2/NA
WEST. DIG.
3.4/$121
5.3/$106
5.1/$86
6.0/$88.9 5.3/NA
UNITS IN MILLIONS
Q4 99
UNIT/$
5.5/$98
5.2/$91
5.8/$92
5.4/$82
Disk vs. Drive Shipment Projections
500,000
Total Drives
450,000
Total Disks
Units (M)
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
WW Disk Production Capacity Estimates vs. Disk
Shipment Projections
640
590
Capacity
Disks (M)
540
490
440
Shipments
390
340
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Average Disk and Head Prices
12.00
11.00
Disk Price ($)
10.00
9.00
8.00
Heads
7.00
Disks
6.00
5.00
1998
1999
2000
2001
Year
2002
2003
2004
Q2 2001 Disk Drive Company Market Share
Samsung
5.7%
WD
12.6%
Fujitsu
11.0%
IBM
14.6%
Others
6.4%
Seagate
22.7%
Maxtor
27.0%
DISK DRIVE SHIPMENTS BY SUPPLIER
(UNITS MILLIONS)
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Q3-99 Q4-99 Q1-00 Q2-00 Q3-00 Q4-00 Q1-01 Q2-01
SEAGATE
QUANTUM
MAXTOR
W.D.
IBM
MAX/QTM
Q1 2001 Drive Company Volume vs Market
Sector
14
12
Volume (M)
10
8
6
4
2
0
Mobile
Maxtor
Seagate
Desktop
IBM
WD
Fujitsu
Enterprise
Samsung
Toshiba
Hitachi
Q2 2001 Head Company Market Share
(Source: PRC, 2001)
Others
14%
Seagate
25%
Fujitsu
9%
Read-Rite
13%
TDK/SAE
18%
IBM
21%
Q2 2001 Media Company Market Share
Seagate
22%
Others Mitsubishi
9% Chemical
6%
MaxMedia
6%
IBM
21%
Komag
14%
SDK
6%
Fujitsu
Fuji 8%
8%
INDUSTRY STATUS
•
•
•
•
•
NETWORK STORAGE
MARKETS TEMPORARILY
STAGNANT DUE TO IT
RECESSION BUT GROWTH
PRESSURE IS INTENSE
(OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW COST
NETWORK STORAGE)
SLOWNESS IN P.C. MARKETS
DRIVE AND COMPONENT
PRICING PRESSURES HAVE
LESSENED, ESPECIALLY FOR
HEADS
CONSUMER ELECTRONICS
AND MOBILE MARKETS
GROWING
UNIT FORECASTS SHOULD
INCREASE AFTER 2001
Disk drive growth will be primarily in mobile storage, network
storage and new applications. The traditional PC market seems
to be near saturation.
140
120
Units (M)
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000
2001
PC
Mobile
2002
Network
2003
New Apps.
2004
Average Mobile Electronic Product Price Projections
700
Digital Cameras
MP3 Player
MPEG-2 Player
Handheld Computer
GPS/Map/Phone
Average Price ($)
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1999
2000
2001E
2002E
2003E
2004E
2005E
Source: Projections based on Intelect Market Tracking for Digital Cameras and PDAs , 2000
400
16
350
14
300
12
250
10
200
8
20%
2-Sided Capacity
150
6
100
4
50
2
0
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2-Sided Capacity (GB)
Prices ($)
Microdrive Price Projections at 20% Gross Margin
and 2-Sided Capacity
IBM MICRODRIVE MARKETS
SHIPMENT EST.
(UNITS 000)
1999
30.0
2000
188.0
2001
600.0
APPLICATIONS:
40%
THINK-PAD, LAPTOP, P.C. APPLICATIONS
60%
DIGITAL CAMERA
CAMERA MODELS: 19 TOTAL
CANON-4
CASIO- 3
KODAK-2
HITACHI- 2
FUJI- 3
SANGYO-2
MINOLTA-3
* OTHER POTENTIAL “1” INCH DRIVE SUPPLIERS: HALO,
MARQLIN, QUANTUM, TOSHIBA,SEAGATE, OTHERS
Compact flash memory is expected to show strong unit
growth and be a significant source of revenue as mobile
data storage applications grow.
(IDC, 2000)
140
7
Units (M)
Revenue ($B)
Units (M)
100
6
5
80
4
60
3
40
2
20
1
0
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
Figure 4C-1
2003
2004
Revenue ($B)
120
Disk drive arrays are expected to show strong revenue
growth as are storage network systems such as SAN and
NAS.
Revenue ($B)
(Source: Peripheral Concepts, Inc. 2001)
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Arrays
SAN
NAS
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Tape drive areal density growth is around 30% annually, much less
than disk drive >100% per year areal density growth. This may make
tape systems vulnerable to disk drive based storage.
100000
1000
100
AIT (GB)
DDS (GB)
DLT
LTO
30% CAGR
60% CAGR
120% CAGR
10
1
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
Tape Capacity (GB)
10000
As low cost disk drive storage decreases in price it
will offer increasing competition to tape systems for
back-up applications.
1000
$/GB
100
10
Tape Drives
Tape Drive +
100 Media
Ghetto RAID
1
Tape Media
0.1
IDE Drives
0.01
1996
1998
2000
Tape Drive + 100 Media
2002
IDE Drive
2004
2006
Ghetto RAID
Optical storage technologies show
moderate growth over the next few years
driven primarily by content distribution and
copying of audio and video content.
(Source: PRC 2001, units Millions)
2000
2001
2002
2003
CD-ROM
82.9
56.4
30.2
18.6
DVD-ROM
30.1
60.3
92.8
107.3
CD/DVD RW
19.0
25.4
29.8
33.7
R/W < 4 GB
1.9
1.6
1.3
1.0
.2
.3
.8
143.9
154.4
161.4
R/W > 4 GB
TOTALS
133.9
Flash and disk drives show strongest projected sales
growth. Tape and floppy units are in decline
300
UNITS (MILLIONS)
250
200
150
100
50
0
2000
RIGID DISK DRIVE
2001
OPTICAL DRIVES
2002
TAPE DRIVES
2003
FLEXIBLE DRIVES
2004
FLASH MEMORY
SUMMARY
•
•
•
•
•
•
2001 WILL BE A DOWN YEAR FOR
STORAGE
AFTER H1 2002, STORAGE DEMANDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
(ESPECIALLY FOR LOW COST NETWORK
STORAGE, MOBILE AND NEW
APPLICATIONS)
SOME ADDITIONAL CONSOLIDATION AND
STRATEGIC DIFFERENTIATION (SUCH AS
FUJITSU’S DECISION TO GET OUT OF THE
DESKTOP DRIVE MARKET)
AREAL DENSITIES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE, MAYBE AT A SLOWER RATE
WITHIN 2 YEARS
MORE COMPONENT INTEGRATION WILL
BE REQUIRED, FEW MERCHANT
VENDORS WILL REMAIN
DISK DRIVES WILL ENCROACH FURTHER
ON TAPE MARKET
Data Storage getting more mature?
“Things are more like they are now
than they ever were before.”
Dwight Eisenhower