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Derby Countdown
MARCH 10
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Derby Countdown
DERBY
2
WATCH
By Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker
HORSE /
RANK SIRE
FUTURE
WATCHMAKER WAGER BEST OWNER /
ODDS ODDS BEYER TRAINER AND JOCKEY
LAST RACE, RESULT,
AND BEYER
NEXT LIKELY RACE,
TRACK, AND DATE
JAY PRIVMAN AND / MIKE WATCHMAKER COMMENTS
1
Union Rags
by Dixie Union
3-1
7-1
4-1
95
Chadds Ford Stable
M. Matz/J. Leparoux
Fountain of Youth, 2/26 Florida Derby, 1 1/8 m
1st by 4, 95
Gulfstream, 3/31
Jay Privman: Came off the bench with a powerful victory. Unlucky not to be unbeaten at this point.
Mike Watchmaker: What was so impressive about his return is he was clearly barely even trying.
2
Hansen
by Tapit
6-1 26-1
9-1
96
K. Hansen & Skychai Racing
M. Maker/R. Dominguez
Gotham, 3/3
1st by 3, 95
Wood Memorial, 1 1/8 m
Aqueduct, 4/7
JP: Showed ability to sit and finish; adds a new dimension, could serve him well down the line.
MW: Gotham effort was an improvement on a number of different levels; he’s back in the game.
3
El Padrino
by Pulpit
8-1 16-1
12-1
100 Let’s Go Stable
T. Pletcher/J. Castellano
Risen Star, 2/25
1st by a nose, 98
Florida Derby, 3/31,
or Louisiana Derby, 4/1
JP: Game win over stubborn foe and, significantly, it came on fast track very similar to CD.
MW: Did prove he doesn’t need a wet track to win, but had to work harder than most expected.
4
Alpha
by Bernardini
Florida Derby, 3/31,
or Wood Memorial, 4/7
JP: Pick your poison: face Hansen in Wood sans Ramon, or keep Ramon vs. Union Rags in Fla.
MW: Going from cool to warm weather can often be a problem; he’s stepping up in either spot.
5
Creative Cause
12-1
by Giant’s Causeway
6
12-1 19-1
18-1
Godolphin Racing
Withers, 2/4
K. McLaughlin/R. Dominguez 1st by 3 1/4, 91
98s Heinz Steinmann
M. Harrington/J. Rosario
San Vicente, 2/19
3rd by 1, 92
San Felipe, 1 1/16 m
Santa Anita, 3/10
JP: Thought comeback was an ideal prep -- closed into fast final 3/8, and galloped out well.
MW: He gained a length into that final 3/8 of 35.45 seconds; can improve, but he will have to.
Fed Biz
20-1 21-1
by Giant’s Causeway
22-1
97
Kaleem Shah Inc.
B. Baffert/R. Bejarano
SA Allowance, 2/9
1st by 5 3/4, 97
Sunland Derby, 1 1/8 m
Sunland Park, 3/25
JP: San Felipe absence makes it paramount he run soon, get graded cash. He has none now.
MW: At the point where graded earnings mean more than talent; he shouldn’t be out for too long.
7
Gemologist
by Tiznow
20-1 22-1
23-1
85
WinStar Farm
T. Pletcher/J. Castellano
Ky Jockey Club, 11/26 Rebel, 1 1/16 m
1st by 1 3/4, 85
Oaklawn, 3/17
JP: Unbeaten at 2, gearing up for 3yo debut, will have same number of preps as Super Saver.
MW: Still don’t think the stakes he won last fall was strong; light schedule is also unsettling.
8
I’ll Have Another
by Flower Alley
20-1 29-1
22-1
96
J. Paul Reddam
D. O’Neill/M. Gutierrez
Robert B. Lewis, 2/4
1st by 2 3/4, 96
Santa Anita Derby, 1 1/8 m
Santa Anita, 4/7
JP: Scrambled the West Coast 3yo division with front-running Lewis upset. Got big fig, too.
MW: Don’t know where that Lewis effort came from, but it was a good one. Can we trust it?
9
Bodemeister
by Empire Maker
25-1
SA Md Sp Wt
1st by 9 1/4, 101
San Felipe, 1 1/16 m
Santa Anita, 3/10
JP: Like Fed Biz, he appears to have a great amount of talent, but needs graded cash ASAP.
MW: Unlike Fed Biz, he is ready to go on Saturday, but he will be making a massive class jump.
BC Juvenile, 11/5
4th by 6, 83
Palm Beach, 1 1/8 m, turf
Gulfstream, 3/11
JP: Romans following same schedule as with Paddy O’Prado - Palm Beach, then Blue Grass.
MW: That means he will be trying to hit the board on dirt for the first time ever in the Derby.
10 Dullahan
by Even the Score
17-1
17-1
91
3-2f 101 Zayat Stables
29-1
B. Baffert/R. Bejarano
25-1 40-1
26-1
85
Donegal Racing
D. Romans/K. Desormeaux
Derby Countdown
HORSE /
RANK SIRE
y
FUTURE
WATCHMAKER WAGER BEST OWNER /
ODDS ODDS BEYER TRAINER AND JOCKEY
3
LAST RACE, RESULT,
AND BEYER
NEXT LIKELY RACE,
TRACK, AND DATE
JAY PRIVMAN AND / MIKE WATCHMAKER COMMENTS
y
y g
y
11 Mark Valeski
by Proud Citizen
25-1
3-2f
38-1
98
Brereton C. Jones
L. Jones/R. Napravnik
Risen Star, 2/25
2nd by a nose, 98
Louisiana Derby, 1 1/8 m
Fair Grounds, 4/1
JP: Gave El Padrino a scare, validating the high hopes Larry and Cindy Jones have for him.
MW: That was a nice try in his route debut, but not sure he’ll be as effective going 10 furlongs.
12 Sabercat
by Bluegrass Cat
25-1 34-1
30-1
85
Winchell Thoroughbreds
S. Asmussen/C. Nakatani
Delta Jackpot, 11/19
1st by 4, 85
Rebel, 1 1/16 m
Oaklawn, 3/17
JP: By awaiting Rebel, he gets an extra week of training, plus he avoids a very deep San Felipe.
MW: That’s fine, but he must come back at a much higher Beyer level to be a legitimate player.
13 Secret Circle
by Eddington
25-1
3-2f
37-1
102 Watson, Pegram, & Weitman
B. Baffert/R. Bejarano
Southwest (2nd div.), 2/20 Rebel, 3/17,
1st by a half, 102
or Sunland Derby, 3/25
JP: Although his Southwest division was faster, still not sure he wants more than a mile.
MW: Distance aside, he and Castaway made a good case for the strength of the West’s 3yos.
14 Castaway
by Street Sense
30-1
3-2f
45-1
92
M. Tabor & Mrs. J. Magnier
B. Baffert/R. Bejarano
Southwest (1st div.), 2/20 Rebel, 3/17,
1st by 3 3/4, 92
or Sunland Derby, 3/25
JP: Took a while to get the hang of things, but seems to be peaking at exactly the right time.
MW: Deserves credit for winning Southwest off maiden win, but it was the much slower division.
15 Empire Way
by Empire Maker
30-1 33-1
37-1
91
Heinz Steinmann
M. Harrington/B. Blanc
Robert B. Lewis, 2/4
2nd by 2 3/4, 91
San Felipe, 1 1/16 m
Santa Anita, 3/10
JP: Creative Cause may be better regarded of Harrington’s duo, but this guy’s very good, too.
MW: Helped when key Lewis horses didn’t fire, but he should improve with racing, distance.
16 Take Charge Indy 30-1 42-1
by A.P. Indy
38-1
96
Chuck & Maribeth Sandford
P. Byrne/C. Borel
GP Allowance, 1/29
2nd by 2, 96
Tampa Bay Derby, 1 1/16 m
Tampa Bay Downs, 3/10
JP: Certainly flattered by El Padrino’s effort in the Risen Star; not far away from him last time.
MW: But we still don’t know if his big effort was due to him moving way up on a wet surface.
17 Liaison
by Indian Charlie
40-1 56-1
39-1
91
Arnold Zetcher
B. Baffert/M. Garcia
Robert B. Lewis, 2/4
dnf, --
San Felipe, 1 1/16 m
Santa Anita, 3/10
JP: Seemed lackluster in first start of the year, had uncharacteristically slow workout since.
MW: Ran well before his last, but starting to wonder precisely where he is form-wise right now.
18 Battle Hardened 50-1 46-1
by Giant’s Causeway
59-1
82
M. Tabor & Mrs. J. Magnier
E. Kenneally/J. Leparoux
Sam F. Davis, 2/4
1st by 1 1/4, 82
Tampa Bay Derby, 1 1/16 m
Tampa Bay Downs, 3/10
JP: Clever management to run maiden in soft Sam Davis, but Beyer fig came up pretty light.
MW: Not sure I want anyone out of that Davis; in fairness, though, he has room to get better.
19 Midnight Transfer 50-1 67-1
by Hard Spun
73-1
96s Warren B. Williamson
C. Gaines/V. Espinoza
San Pedro, 1/22
1st by a head, 93
San Felipe, 1 1/16 m
Santa Anita, 3/10
JP: San Felipe coming up quite tough; will provide a good measuring stick of where he stands.
MW: The big question is whether he can route. He’s had five starts, and all of them were sprints.
20 My Adonis
50-1
by Pleasantly Perfect
95
Gotham, 3/3
2nd by 3, 90
Wood Memorial, 1 1/8 m
Aqueduct, 4/7
JP: Though second best to Hansen, he ran on strongly and was well clear of the rest of the field.
MW: Wasn’t in the same league with Hansen in Gotham, and there wasn’t much else in the race.
3-2f
3-1f
George & Lori Hall
K. Breen/E. Trujillo
WHO’S HOT
WHO’S NOT
ON THE BUBBLE
Bodemeister, the understudy for Fed Biz in the San Felipe Stakes on Saturday at
Santa Anita, and My Adonis, second to Hansen in the Gotham Stakes last Saturday
at Aqueduct, are the two newcomers to this week’s top 20 of Derby Watch. Bodemeister figures to get plenty of support in the San Felipe, part of the reason why Mike
Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper, has pegged him at 25-1 on
his Kentucky Derby future line. My Adonis is 50-1 on Watchmaker’s line. Hansen, the
co-fifth choice on Watchmaker’s future line one week ago at 15-1, is now the clear
second choice at 6-1 following his victory in the Gotham.
Out of Bounds was taken off the list owing to injury, and Rousing Sermon was
removed strictly to make room for Bodemeister. Rousing Sermon did nothing wrong. It
was just a matter of him being the odd horse out this week. Fed Biz, 12-1 last week, is
now 20-1 on Watchmaker’s line because of his absence from the San Felipe. As good
as he may be, Fed Biz still has no graded stakes earnings, and the clock is ticking.
Rousing Sermon obviously would move right back on the list with a strong performance in the San Felipe. With both the San Felipe and the Tampa Bay Derby – both
two-turn races on dirt – being run this weekend, there will opportunities for others to
leap onto the list.
-Jay Privman
Derby Countdown
4
SAN FELIPE STAKES G2
(Saturday, Santa Anita Race 9)
By Jeremy Plonk
Blingo
While John Shirreffs’s 60-180 day layoff numbers may look meager in the past
performances, when you dial in a specific 12-week layoff of 80-90 days like
Blingo has, note he’s a razor-sharp 4-for-10 over the last 5 years with 7 in-themoney finishes. One of those wins was an 84-day break for Zenyatta before
the G1 Apple Blossom in 2008. Shirreffs has won major graded stakes moving horses from synthetic to dirt with the likes of Tiago, Zardana and Zenyatta
during that time. Despite finishing sixth in the G1 CashCall Futurity, Blingo came
home second-fastest in the race to Rousing Sermon over the final five-sixteenths
of a mile.
Bodemeister
Trainer Bob Baffert is 4-for-13 over the past 5 years when moving 3-year-olds
into a graded stakes race fresh off a maiden victory. He won the G3 Southwest
at Oaklawn last month on such a class hike and also won last year’s G1 Santa
Anita Derby with Midnight Interlude coming out of the maiden ranks. The filly
Eden’s Moon won the G1 Las Virgenes last Saturday on the maiden-to-stakes
rise. Bodemeister ran every quarter-mile split in his maiden win in 23-andchange, including a 23.73 final quarter that was actually faster than his second
and third-quarter fractions.
American Art
Trainer Jack Carava seeks his first graded stakes win since 2009 when he
scored a pair of G2 wins at Santa Anita and Golden Gate just 3 weeks apart.
Carava trainees are just 1-for-12 the past 5 years when moving sprint-to-route
while boasting 3 consecutive ascending Beyer Speed Figures like American Art,
the winner a $10,000 claimer in 2009.
SHIGEKI KIKKAWA
Midnight Transfer
San Pedro Stakes fifth-place finisher Drill returned to win the G2 San Vicente,
while San Pedro sixth Passing Game returned to run third in the listed Baffle
Stakes. Trainer Carla Gaines’s only attempt in the last 5 years to stretch out from a
sprint to a route in a dirt stakes race was a last-place finish by Malibu Pier in the
G2 El Encino last year at 5-2 odds.
Derby Countdown
5
G3 San Felipe Stakes continued
Groovin’ Solo
Trainer Myung Kwon Cho took the blinkers off Premier Pegasus prior to
last year’s victory in the G2 San Felipe and will try the same move at the
same time. Cho also took the blinkers off Riveting Reason prior to last year’s
G2 Bob Lewis Memorial runner-up finish. Groovin’ Solo came home a full
second slower than Empire Way in the Lewis over the final five-sixteenths of
a mile.
Liaison
Prior to clipping heels in the G2 Lewis Memorial, Liaison already had run
the slowest second-quarter split in the race and was only faster than two
rivals in his third-quarter split. Trainer Bob Baffert removed the blinkers from
Jaycito prior to running second in this race a year ago and also went blinkers-off for Coil’s 2011 G1 Haskell victory. Baffert and jockey Martin Garcia
have teamed to win 31 graded stakes over the past 5 years, but only 2 of
those winners were above 5-1 odds (Plum Pretty 6-1 in G1 Kentucky Oaks;
Gabby’s Golden Gal 11-1 in G1 Santa Monica).
Tiz Point
Trainer Richard Mandella attempted a turf-to-dirt move in last year’s G2 Bob Lewis
Memorial with Ten Devils, who wound up last of seven. Mandella is 1-for-3 going
turf-to-dirt in a graded stakes over the past 5 years, winning the 2011 G3 Tokyo City
with 8-1 shot Worth Repeating. In the last 5 years, Mandella has run only a trio of
3-year-olds in graded dirt stakes, finishing seventh, seventh and ninth, beating just five
horses total in those attempts.
Empire Way
Came home the final five-sixteenths of a mile in 30.07 in the G2 Bob Lewis, easily
fastest of any competitor in that race and a full second faster than any of the opponents he’ll rematch with in the G2 San Felipe. Trainer Mike Harrington is just 6-for105 over the past 5 years with horses who have posted 3 straight ascending Beyer
Speed Figures and a 6% winner with horses exiting a career-high figure. Harrington
and jockey Brice Blanc last teamed for a win at Del Mar in 2008 (0-21 since).
Creative Cause
Trainer Mike Harrington is 1-for-5 over the past 5 years when stretching a
horse out from a sprint to a route in the second start after a layoff. Creative
Cause came home the final eighth in the 7-furlong San Vicente in a racebest 11.83. Jockey Joel Rosario’s only two mounts this year riding for Harrington have been aboard Creative Cause and Empire Way in stakes.
Rousing Sermon
Heading into this week’s racing, trainer Jerry Hollendorfer was mired in a
2-for-31 slump on the dirt at the current Santa Anita meeting and winless
since Jan. 28 on the main track locally. Rousing Sermon improved his Beyer
Speed Figure in all 6 career starts before a 7-point drop-off in the G2 Lewis
Memorial. His 23.75 personal third-quarter in the Lewis was easily the fastest in any of his route races and left him without his usual fourth-quarter and
beyond closing punch.
SHIGEKI KIKKAWA
Derby Countdown
4
BONUS: TAMPA BAY DERBY G2
(Saturday, Tampa Bay Downs Race 11)
By Jeremy Plonk
Prospective
Trainer Mark Casse has gone first-time blinkers with a runner in a graded stakes
three times over the past five years and it’s resulted in second, third and fourthplace finishes. Each improved its Beyer Speed Figure between 1 and 6 points
with the addition of blinkers.
Golden Ticket
Over the past 5 years, trainer Ken McPeek has finished out of the money with
all 3 3-year-olds he’s moved directly into graded stakes off of a maiden win. He
was eighth in the 2011 G3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa with Washington Rules at
3-1 odds while making the same class move.
Battle Hardened
Trainer Eddie Kenneally is a rock-solid 24% winner (6-for-25) the past 5 years in
graded stakes with horses who have posted 3 straight ascending Beyer Speed
Figures. Kenneally and jockey Julien Leparoux have teamed for a sharp $2.68
ROI in graded stakes races the past 5 years.
TOM COOLEY
Ravelo’s Boy
Ran the fastest final five-sixteenths of anyone in the G3 Sam F. Davis, coming
home in 31.48. Davis seventh-place finisher State of Play returned to win last
Saturday’s John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway Park.
Spring Hill Farm
Came home the final quarter-mile in his allowance win in just 26.64 despite it
being a one-turn race. The only two horses to return out of that race to compete
finished fourth and fifth in the optional claiming and claiming ranks.
Take Charge Indy
Runner-up in allowance try behind El Padrino, who went on to win the G2 Risen
Star in stakes-record time. Others behind the top pair in that allowance are 0-for-5
in their next starts, however. Trainer Patrick Byrne is 4-for-44 over the past 5 years
with horses exiting a career-best Beyer Speed Figure. He’s 0-for-7 (off the board
in all but one) during that period when that effort is followed by a graded-stakes
attempt.
Derby Countdown
8
GRADED EARNINGS
ranked by graded stakes earnings
List of contenders for the 2012 Kentucky Derby on May 5 at Churchill Downs, ranked by graded
stakes earnings. The Kentucky Derby field is limited to 20 horses; if more than 20 enter, the entries
are determined by the amount of graded stakes earnings each horse has accumulated
NO. HORSE
TRAINER .......................................................EARNINGS
1
2
3
4
5
6
6
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
16
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
Michael Maker ...................................................... $1,160,000
Michael Matz .......................................................... 1,070,000
Steve Asmussen ......................................................... 600,000
Aidan O’Brien ............................................................. 556,630
Mike Harrington ......................................................... 506,000
Bob Baffert ................................................................. 375,000
Dale Romans .............................................................. 375,000
Bob Baffert ................................................................. 300,000
Ian Black .................................................................... 240,736
Todd Pletcher ............................................................. 200,000
Kiaran McLaughlin ..................................................... 180,000
Bob Baffert ................................................................. 170,000
Jerry Hollendorfer ...................................................... 164,000
Mark Casse ................................................................ 155,452
Doug O’Neill............................................................... 151,000
Bob Baffert ................................................................. 150,000
Teresa Pompay ........................................................... 150,000
Steve Asmussen ......................................................... 145,558
James Cassidy ........................................................... 120,000
Eddie Kenneally ......................................................... 120,000
Larry Jones ................................................................ 115,848
Graham Motion .......................................................... 115,000
Robin Graham ............................................................ 105,000
Todd Pletcher ............................................................. 103,855
Jerry Hollendorfer ...................................................... 102,834
Arturo Morales ............................................................. 99,481
Patrick Byrne ................................................................ 98,400
Aidan O’Brien ............................................................... 94,030
Graham Motion ............................................................ 90,000
James Bolger ............................................................... 85,244
Mike Harrington ........................................................... 85,000
D. Wayne Lukas ........................................................... 81,375
Dale Romans ................................................................ 80,000
Thomas Amoss ............................................................ 79,700
Ian Wilkes .................................................................... 78,383
Bernie Flint .................................................................. 67,748
Steve Assmussen ......................................................... 65,000
Bob Baffert ................................................................... 64,000
Neil Howard ................................................................. 61,354
Doodnauth Shivmangal ................................................ 60,000
Bob Baffert ............................................................................ 0
Bob Baffert ............................................................................ 0
Hansen
Union Rags
Sabercat
Wrote (IRE)
Creative Cause
Liaison
Dullahan
Drill
Excaper
El Padrino
Alpha
Secret Circle
Rousing Sermon
Prospective
I’ll Have Another
Castaway
Currency Swap
Daddy Nose Best
Brother Francis
Battle Hardened
Mr. Bowling
Lucky Chappy (IRE)
Jack’s In The Deck
Gemologist
Longview Drive
Fly Lexis Fly
Take Charge Indy
Daddy Long Legs
State of Play
Zip Top (IRE)
Empire Way
Optimizer
News Pending
Shared Property
Motor City
Exfactor
Z Dager
Sky Kingdom
Power World
Shkspeare Shaliyah
Bodemeister
Fed Biz
ROAD TO THE DERBY
DATE
RACE
TRK
DISTANCE
WINNER
BEYER
Jan. 7
Jan. 21
Jan. 29
Feb. 4
Feb. 4
Feb. 4
Feb. 11
Feb. 18
Feb. 19
Feb. 20
Feb. 20
Feb. 25
Feb. 26
March 3
March 10
March 10
March 10
March 11
March 17
March 24
March 25
March 31
March 31
April 1
April 7
April 7
April 7
April 7
April 14
April 14
April 21
April 21
Sham (G3)
Lecomte (G3)
Holy Bull (G3)
Withers (G3)
Robert B. Lewis (G2)
Sam F. Davis (G3)
Hutcheson (G2)
El Camino Real Derby (G3)
San Vicente (G2)
Southwest (G3) (1st Div.)
Southwest (G3) (1st Div.)
Risen Star (G2)
Fountain of Youth (G2)
Gotham (G3)
Swale (G2)
San Felipe (G2)
Tampa Bay Derby (G2)
Palm Beach (G3)
Rebel (G2)
Vinery Spiral (G3)
Sunland Derby (G3)
Florida Derby (G1)
UAE Derby (G2)
Louisiana Derby (G2)
Wood Memorial (G1)
Bay Shore (G3)
Illinois Derby (G3)
Santa Anita Derby (G1)
Blue Grass (G1)
Arkansas Derby (G1)
Jerome (G2)
Coolmore Lexington (G3)
SA
FG
GP
AQU
SA
TAM
GP
GG
SA
OP
OP
FG
GP
AQU
GP
SA
TAM
GP
OP
TP
SUN
GP
MEYDAN
FG
AQU
AQU
HAW
SA
KEE
OP
AQU
KEE
1M
1M 70Y
1M
1 1/16M
1 1/16M
1 1/16M
7F
1 1/8M
7F
1M
1M
1 1/16M
1 1/16M
1 1/16M
7F
1 1/16M
1 1/16M
1 1/8M (T)
1 1/16M
1 1/8M
1 1/8M
1 1/8M
1 3/16M
1 1/8M
1 1/8M
7F
1 1/8M
1 1/8M
1 1/8M
1 1/8M
1M
1 1/16M
Out of Bounds
99
Mr. Bowling
79
Algorithms
105
Alpha
90
I’ll Have Another
96
Battle Hardened
81
Thunder Moccasin 93
Daddy Nose Best
92
Drill
94
Castaway
92
Secret Circle
102
El Padrino
98
Union Rags
95
Hansen
95
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