The 3 April 2012 Tornado Outbreak

The 3 April 2012 Tornado Outbreak:
An Analysis of the North Texas Integrated
Warning Team
Lancaster, TX Tornado. Credit: Dallas Morning News
•
20 tornadoes in north and northeast Texas
•
3 EF-2 and 1 EF-3 affected DFW Metroplex
•
5.4 Million people in tornado warnings
•
0 fatalities / 29 injuries
•
$800 million in damages
•
Tracked live on television
High Traffic area.
I-45 and I-20
intersection
City center of
Lancaster.
Dense residential
and commercial
Open farmland
few homes
I-35E
Kennedale &
Arlington .
Dense residential
area. US. 287 & I-20
Open
farmland
quickly
gives way to
residential
Subdivision quickly
gives way to
farmland
City center
of Forney
Severe weather was expected...
…but the tornado threat was expected to be low:
•
Weak/unidirectional low level wind fields
•
Strong forcing for ascent along approaching cold front –
works against a discrete storm mode
• 4 significant tornadoes
in a highly populated
area
• The Integrated
Warning Team
Saved Lives
• No Deaths!!!!!
• Use this as an
opportunity to find
why and how
• No Assessment
Just under half
(47%) would take
cover immediately
Warning
Issued
Around 1 in 4 people
require confirmation
Warning
Received
Action
Taken
 Interviews
• Five broadcast meteorologists
• 5 NWS meteorologists
• 10 emergency management officials
 Reviewed Archived Broadcast Tapes
• 4 primary DFW Metroplex stations
 Some local area EMs provided copies of their EOC logs
 Minute-By-Minute Timeline
• NWSChat was used as the backbone of the timeline
Photo: Dallas
Examiner
Spotters report increasing west of Forney
Tornado Warning:
Kaufman County (Forney)
3:25 PM
Tornado Emergency:
Dallas County (Lancaster)
1:26 PM
Tractor trailer footage replayed
Tornado Emergency:
2:29 PM
Tarrant County (Arlington/Pantego)
1:26 PM
Tornado Warning:
Tornado Emergency:
Johnson County (Joshua)
Dallas County (Mesquite/Garland)
12:45 PM
2:02 PM
12:30
PM
CDT
1:30
PM
CDT
Tornado Emergency:
Dallas County (Lancaster)
1:17 PM
Photo: WFAA-TV
Live footage of tractor trailers
being damaged
1:33 PM
2:30
PM
CDT
Tornado Emergency:
Dallas County (Lancaster)
1:34 PM
Tornado Emergency:
Hunt County (Greenville)
4:27 PM
4:30
PM
CDT
3:30
PM
CDT
Broadcast media relays reports of
increasing tornado threat for
Kaufman County (Forney)
3:27 PM
Tornado Emergency:
Dallas County (Lancaster)
1:34 PM
Tractor trailer footage replayed
3:02 PM
Tornado confirmed in Forney
(Kaufman County)
3:33 PM
•
•
•
Tornado Emergency language used to raise
awareness of the threat of a large, damaging
tornado in a populated area
Storm spotters and media coverage drove the
decision to issue a “Tornado Emergency” by the
NWS
The use of “Tornado Emergency” in text
products is difficult to notice
•
•
Chatting about it elicited a much faster response from
local area media
Emergency Managers were largely unaffected
by “Tornado Emergency” language
 1:16-1:20 PM
• Dallas Tornado Emergency (text):
• NWSChat, on-air mention
• Tarrant Tornado Emergency (text):
• NWSChat, on-air mention
 1:26-1:35 PM
• 2 Dallas Tornado Emergency (text):
• No NWSChat, No on-air mention
• 2 Tarrant Tornado Emergency (text):
• NWSChat, on-air mention
When issuance of a “Tornado Emergency” was
communicated via NWSChat: message was
mentioned on local TV stations 89% of the time
When “Tornado Emergency” mentioned in a text
product (warning) only: NEVER relayed on air!
Mixed results from interviews:
• Media in general was in favor of the TE usage
• Half said it made no difference in their station’s coverage of
the event
• Other half thought TEs set this event apart from others right
away
• Media partners seemed to indicate mentioning TE in NWSchat is
more effective than putting TE in the warning alone.
• Emergency managers said the TE usage made no difference in
their operations.
• Social media as a whole was not analyzed, but there were over
1,000 tweets of TE on April 3rd after warnings were issued!
 Zero Deaths
• Good Warnings
• Daytime
• Video
 Integrated Warning Team Worked
• One Voice to all*
• Multiple jurisdictions saying the same thing
 Most important outcome: Everyone was delivering the same
message at the same time… “This is a significant threat, and
you need to take action now!”
 NWSChat
• Glue that held it all together
• FWD Watched Media…but can’t hear media
Consensus of reasons given for no fatalities during the event:
• Circumstance or luck
• Early afternoon hours
• Primarily damaged residential areas
• Many people were at work or school
• Consistent media coverage
• All DFW area media outlets took the warnings seriously & talked about
the severity of tornadoes
• Showed dramatic video of tornadoes and damage
• Emergency managers made fast, effective decisions
• Already established communication protocols with NWS that allowed
for quick dissemination and understanding of weather information
• The NWS issued effective warnings
• The IWT communicated well!
1:00 PM
1:07 PM
1:14 PM
1:21 PM
1:28 PM
1:35 PM
1:42 PM
1:49 PM
1:56 PM
2:03 PM
2:10 PM
2:17 PM
2:24 PM
2:31 PM
2:38 PM
2:45 PM
2:52 PM
2:59 PM
3:06 PM
3:13 PM
3:20 PM
3:27 PM
3:34 PM
3:41 PM
3:48 PM
3:55 PM
4:02 PM
4:09 PM
4:16 PM
4:23 PM
4:30 PM
4:37 PM
4:44 PM
Maintaining a consistent, reliable presence in chat drives a
consistent warning message.
Number of Informational NWSChats Each
Minute by FWD
2
1
0
# of Chats Each Minute
Emergency Issued
10 Minute Average
2:00 PM
<nws-jason.dunn> with new line of storms moving into western Tarrant County, there will
be a threat of frequent lightning and gusty winds. This may hamper search and rescue
efforts in Tarrant County
2:03 PM
Station 3 coverage: NWS states approaching line of storms will complicate search and
rescue efforts
2:17 PM
Station 3 coverage: The squall line will hamper search and rescue efforts
2:46 PM
Station 1 coverage: (…new storms) in Arlington… may impact damage efforts
3:29 PM
Station 3 coverage: NWS concerned about storms impacting search and rescue operations
Photo: Tony Gutierrez, Associated Press
Good working relationships with all members of the IWT before a
disaster leads to effective communication during a tornado
outbreak.
*All IWT members interviewed stated the importance of already having a
working relationship prior to this event. IWT members were already familiar
with one another and could spend time focusing on critical information sharing.
 Continue assessing & evaluating the importance of using
“Tornado Emergency” Language.
• Results show using NWSChat to relay the destructiveness
and emergency of the situation may work better
 Continue to be a reliable source for the detection of hazardous
weather.
• If we lose our expertise, our IWT partners will gather
information themselves or elsewhere
• IWT partners stressed the pivotal role the NWS has in
providing meteorological expertise
 Maintain & promote good working relationships within the IWT.
Contact:
Jennifer.Dunn@noaa.gov
Mark.Fox@noaa.gov
Lancaster, TX Tornado. Credit: Dallas Morning News