Masan Group - Techcom Securities

Transcription

Masan Group - Techcom Securities
Techcom Securities 1
9 Dec 2014
Investment Analysis – Initial Report
Dly T/O
US$M
Masan Group
0.51
MK
1Y Hi/Lo Target
Foreign
CAP
Price
%
108,000
Buy
US$M
2,923
35
84,500 78,500
Sell
TICKER
Industry
63,900
Food Producers
86,500
12/9/2014
INVESTMENT PROPOSAL


HOLD
Group structure has been much simplified, MSN continues to clear any outstanding share dilution potential.
Subsidiaries and affiliates perform well during 9M2014:
 MSC to refocus on consumer products development with extensive capital investment in expanding
distribution channel and upcoming M&A (e.g. offered to buy 49% Cholimex).
 Nui Phao started to generate net gain from Q3/2014. However, project’s outlook should be remained
skeptical as tungsten price has decreased since Dec 2013 (-15.8% y.o.y).
 Techcombank shows positive signs of recovery, with sharp increase in total assets, pre-tax income 9M2014;
and lower NPL ratio.
PRICE CHART
IMPORTANT FINANCIAL INDICATORS
P/E
EV/EBITDA
P/BV
Dvd Yield
ROE
Net Profit Margin
IB Debt/Equity
IB Debt/EBITDA
Interest Coverage
Receivable Days
Inventory Days
Unit
x
x
x
%
%
%
x
x
x
days
days
2009
149.07
88.30
13.04
0.00
8.75
10.53
0.28
2.02
7.10
5
28
2010
27.20
46.65
5.85
0.00
29.68
40.87
0.50
4.60
5.25
4
28
2011
31.47
34.80
3.91
0.00
14.89
27.96
0.44
5.29
5.19
7
41
2012
49.27
24.76
4.47
0.00
8.47
12.13
0.73
5.76
7.73
6
35
2013
137.63
23.73
4.30
0.00
3.19
3.78
0.80
7.15
5.10
7
43
2014
107.54
14.33
3.90
0.00
3.81
3.49
0.82
4.45
1.65
15
60
2015
73.76
11.13
3.34
0.00
4.88
4.23
0.66
3.11
1.95
15
60
2016
46.70
9.42
2.83
0.00
6.57
5.90
0.38
1.70
2.82
15
60
2017
35.36
8.32
2.36
0.00
7.28
6.98
0.34
1.53
5.16
15
60
2018
32.01
7.90
1.99
0.00
6.75
7.08
0.12
0.62
5.39
15
60
Source: TCBS
Techcom Securities 2
9 Dec 2014
Investment Analysis – Initial Report
GROUP STRUCTURE
Vietnamese-French Cattle Feed
JSC ("Proconco”)
 Established since 1991.
 Top 3 livestock & aqua feed
manufacturer by volume (total
capacity 1.2m tons/year).
 2013: Revenue 12,000 VNDb,
Net income 690 VNDb.
39.7%
Masan Agri JSC
 Management advisory
51%
Agriculture
Financial
49%
MASAN GROUP (“MSN”)
TPG Growth
FY2013:
Paid-in Cap
Owner’s Equity
Net Revenue
Net Income
Mount Kellett
20%
Masan Resources JSC (MR)
 Management advisory
 2013: Owner’s equity 10,971
VNDb, Total assets: 21,198
VNDb.
74.1%
Masan Horizon JSC
 Management advisory
100%
F&B
MasanConsumerHoldings
One Member Ltd.
 Management advisory
100%
Thai Nguyen Trading &
Investment One Member
Ltd (TNTI)
 Management advisory
 2013: Owner’s equity ~
Total assets 719 VNDb.
Nui Phao Mining Ltd (NPM)
 Owner and Operator of Nui
Phao mine and factory.
 2013: Owner’s equity 3,746
VNDb, Total assets 16,364
VNDb.
100%
Masan Industrial
One Member Ltd
 Sauces & noodles
producer
KKR
18.04%
100%
Viet Tien Food Tech
One Member Ltd
 Sauces producer
100%
Minh Viet Packaging
One Member Ltd
 Packaging, containers
100%
Masan Brewery
One Member Ltd.
 Brewery
94.5%
Masan PQ JSC
 Sauces producer
100%
Masan HD
One Member Ltd
 Sauces producer
100%
Masan Consumer JSC (MSC)
 2013: Total assets 26,203
VNDb, Equity 15,945
VNDb, Revenue 11,943
VNDb
Lamka
One Member Ltd.
100%
100%
Masan Beverage
One Member Ltd
 Soft-drink producer &
wholesaler
Masan Food
One Member Ltd
 Food producers
100%
100%
77.3%
15%
85%
7,349 VNDb
14,433 VNDb
11,943 VNDb
1,307 VNDb
Resources
100%
Masan Thai Nguyen Resources
One Member Ltd (MRTN)
 Management advisory
 2013: Owner’s equity 6,298
VNDb, Total assets 21,367
VNDb.
30,36%
Techcombank
 Top 5 joint stock banks.
 9M2014: Total assets
170,768 VNDb; Net income
902 VNDb.
53.2%
Masan ĐN
One Member Ltd.
 Noodles & soft-drink
producer
99.99%
63.95%
Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC (VCF) Vinh Hao Mineral Water
 Instant coffee producer.
JSC
 2013 Revenue 2,299 VNDb,  Mineral water
Total assets 1,613 VNDb.
producer
Phu Yen Brewery JSC
(PYBECO)
 Brewery
 2013 Total asset: 270 VNDb
 Capacity: 50m litres/year.
63.94%
Krongpha JSC
 Soft-drink producer
Source: MSN, TCBS
Techcom Securities 3
9 Dec 2014
Investment Analysis – Initial Report
INTRODUCTION






MSN is the largest conglomerate in Vietnam private sector, operates in diversified industries, including: food
& beverage (F&B), natural resources, financial and agriculture.
F&B contribute 100% of the group’s consolidated revenue until 2013. From 2014 onwards, MSN will have
around 20% revenue from natural resources (Nui Phao project recorded revenue since Q2/2014).
F&B segment
 MSN owns 77.3% Masan Foods, one of the largest food producer in Vietnam which has developed strong
brands such as: Omachi, Kokomi, Tien Vua (instant noodles); Chin-su, Nam Ngu, Tam Thai Tu (sauces &
condiments).
 Besides self-develop brands, MSN also expands its market share in F&B through continued acquisition of
leading consumer products companies, e.g. Vinacafe Bien Hoa (VCF), Vinh Hao Mineral Water, Phu Yen
brewery.
Natural resources segment
 MSN owns 74.1% Masan Resources, which operates Nui Phao project, the biggest tungsten mine in terms
of ore reserve (excluding mines in China).
 Nui Phao is a poly-metallic mine. Other than tungsten, there are bismuth, fluorspar and copper. Tungsten
revenue is projected to account for 50 – 60% of project’s total revenue.
 Nui Phao processing factory completed and ran ramp-up phase since 2013; started recording revenue since
2Q2014, and generated first net profit in 3Q/2014.
Financial segment
 MSN has 30.36% economic interest in Techcombank, of which 19.99% is common equity with voting
rights. The rest of effective interest is created by holding convertible bond issued by Techcombank. MSN
has agreed to irrevocably and mandatorily convert those bonds into ordinary shares.
 Techcombank is among top 5 joint stock commercial banks in terms of total assets (up to 171 VNDtn) and
operation network (over 300 branches and 7,000 employees countrywide).
Agriculture segment
 MSN has 20.4% effective interest in Vietnamese-French Cattle Feed JSC (Proconco). The company ranks
3rd in terms of total capacity in Vietnam livestock and aqua feed market (after CP and Cargill), has over
590 points of sales throughout country.
 Proconco is estimated to have revenue and net income 2013 of 12,000 VNDb and 690 VNDb,
respectively.
MILESTONES
2002 - 2003:
Minh Viet (a
trading
company)
merged with Viet
Tien (a sauces
producer) to
form Masan
Trading, later
renamed as
Masan Food in
2008.
Introduced Chinsu sauces.
2004:
Established
Masan
Maritime
company
specialized in
marine
transportation.
Introduced
Tam Thai Tu
& Nam Ngu
sauces, Omach
i noodles.
2009:
Masan Maritime
was renamed as
Masan
Group, listed on
HOSE.
MSN started
operating as a
holding
company, with
majority control
over Masan Food
(54.8%) and held
19.99% of
Techcombank.
2010 - 2011:
Increased its
effective interest at
Techcombank to
over 30% by
purchasing 4,800
VNDb convertible
bond.
Acquire majority
interest of Nui Phao
mine (from Dragon
Capital and through
acquiring TNTI).
2012 - 2013:
Acquired
majority stake
at various
leading
consumer
companies:
Proconco, Vin
h Hao mineral
water, and
Vinacafe Bien
Hoa.
2014:
Nui Phao
project was
put into
operation, fi
rst net profit
in Q3/2014.
MSN to
acquire Phu
Yen
brewery.
Techcom Securities 4
9 Dec 2014
Investment Analysis – Initial Report
OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE
MSN Group Ownership Structure (6/2014)
Vietnam
Enterprise
Investments
Limited
2%
Mr. Ho Hung
Anh
2%
Ms. Nguyen
Hoang Yen
(Chairman's
wife)
3%
Others
28%
Masan JSC
34%

Chartered
cap: 7.349
VNDb
BI Private
Equity New
Market II K/S
6%

Orchid
Capital
Investment
Pte. Ltd
11%
Sunflower
One Member
Ltd
14%
Source: TCBS
Dr. Nguyen Dang Quang (Mr. Chairman)
indirectly controls MSN over his stake in
Masan JSC (around 46%). Mr. Ho Hung Anh
(Vice Chairman) also holds more than 10%
interest in Masan JSC.
Dec 2014 major shareholders’ announcement:
 Mr. Ho Hung Anh registered to sell all of
his 15.77 mil shares (2.14% stake, worth
1,300 VNDb). His wife, Ms. Nguyen Thi
Thanh Thuy, registered to buy 16 mil
shares.
 Masan JSC registered to sell 7.5 mil
shares.
 Ms. Nguyen Hoang Yen (Chairman’s
wife) registered to buy 8 mil shares.
RECENT HIGHLIGHTS
Dec - 2014

MasanConsumerHoldings issued a 2,100 VNDb bond, fixed coupon rate of 8% for 10Y tenor.
This is the first, non-sovereign bond in Vietnam guaranteed by CGIF, an investment trust of ADB.
Nov - 2014

Masan Consumer registered to acquire 49% Cholimex Food, however, 2 major shareholders Cholimex (40.7%) and Nichirei Food (20%) have officially declined to sell their stake. Cholimex
and Masan Food (Chin-su brand) are market leaders in chili sauce segment.
Masan Consumer registered to purchase 18 mil treasury shares (equivalent to 3.39% total
outstanding share) at 90,000 VND/share, implied market cap of 48 VNDtn.

Jul – 2014

Private placement of 896,802 MSN stocks to IFC to clear a convertible bond worth 38.56
VNDb (i.e. conversion price at 43.000 VND/share, discount 47% to current market price).
Aug – 2014

Acquired 100% Lamka One Member Ltd, which owns 99.99% Phu Yen Brewery (PYBECO).
Late 2013


Complete coffee factory at Long Thanh, which tripled total capacity of Vinacafe Bien Hoa.
MSC to introduce Sagami, instant noodles brand for middle-market (in addition to Omachi for
premium market and economy brand such as: Kokomi, Tien Vua, Oh Ngon).
Introduced B’fast, Komi instant congee, 2:1 Phinn coffee.
MSN to issue 20 mil shares ESOP to key managements/employees (equivalent to 2.91% total
outstanding shares).


9 Dec 2014
Techcom Securities 5
Investment Analysis – Initial Report
SWOT ANALYSIS
Masan Group
Strength
 Solid management (CEO of each subsidiary has over
20 years of relevant working experiences).
 Experienced in raising fund from foreign
investors, through various funding instruments
(private equity, bond, promissory note, etc.)
 Established strong credit rating in the eyes of
foreign investors/creditors.
Opportunity
 Interest rate decreases, giving low cost funding for
upcoming M&A of the Group.
 Upside potential for Techcombank and Masan
Consumer to be listed in upcoming years as Vietnam
banking sector is improving, and securities market is
getting more dynamic with liquidity increasing.
Masan Consumers
Strength
 Huge distribution system for consumer products
with over 180 distributors and 176,000 points of
sales.
 Strong branding through self-development and
acquisition of leading brand names in Vietnam
consumer market.
Opportunity
 Vietnam economy recovers. GDP per capita and
consumption spending increase.
 MSN addressable market size could reach USD
4.5bn.
Masan Resources
Strength
 A low-cost producers of tungsten because Nui Phao
(i) is a tungsten-polymetallic mine, which helps to
save mining cost; and (ii) has economy of scale.
 Partnership with H.C.Starck, a leading manufacturer
of technology metals and advanced ceramics.
Opportunity
 Tungsten products are likely to continue enjoying
preferential export tariff of 0% as Nui Phao
produces high-grade tungsten products (above 65%)
and the Government promotes deep processing
mineral products.
Weakness
 High interest burden due to huge debt funding for
continued M&A.
 High depreciation of CAPEX and goodwill affected
bottom-line of the Group’s consolidated P&L.
 Group structure still complex and not so easy to
perceive for investors given its various financial
instruments issued and cross holding.
Threat
 Fierce competition in F&B segment and high
volatility of tungsten price.
 Still has some exposure to share dilution risk as
MSN has an outstanding convertible bond of Jade
Dragon worth 568 VNDb, conversion price
65,000VND/share  probably be converted to 9mil
shares in 2015 (1.2% outstanding share YE2013).
Weakness
 Some key product brands reach maturity stage and
could hardly continue impressive growth as in the
past (e.g. sauces & condiment 2013 revenue grew
only 8%, compared to continuous growth rate over
20% during 2010 – 2012 period.)
Threat
 Fierce competition in soft-drink market with both
foreign and domestic players, e.g. Pepsico, Nestle,
Kirin, URC, Tan Hiep Phat, etc.
Weakness
 High logistic cost as mining site is far from Hai
Phong port (most of product is to export).
Threat
 Tungsten price exhibits high volatility as both
demand and supply subject to China’s market
movements. (China accounts for 83% production
volume and 60% consumption volume of tungsten
worldwide).
Techcom Securities 6
9 Dec 2014
Investment Analysis – Initial Report
BUSINESS PERFORMANCE
MSN consolidated revenue (VNDb) & gross margin (%)
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
43%
31%
43%
41%
42%
9M2014 consolidated revenue break-down
50%
39%
35%
18%
40%
30%
CAGR 32%
MSN 9M2014
Revenue:
10.833 VNDb
20%
10%
82%
0%
2008
2009
2010
Masan Consumers
2011
2012 2013A 2014E
Masan Resources
Masan Consumers
Gross margin
Source: MSN, MSC, TCBS



Masan Resources
Source: MSN, MR, TCBS
Until 2013, Masan Consumers contributes 100% revenue of MSN consolidated P&L (since Techcombank &
Proconco are associates companies so their revenues are not consolidated; and Masan Resources only generates net
sales from Q2/2014 onwards).
Total revenue of Masan Consumer increases rapidly, CAGR of 32% for 2009 – 2013 period, because of (i) selfdeveloped brands (Omachi, Chin-su) grows sharply; and (ii) continuously consolidate revenue of subsidiaries
through M&A (Vinacafe Bien Hoa, Vinh Hao).
Masan Consumer holds 18.6% noodles; 43.6% sauces & condiments; and 32.6% coffee market share 2013
(according to Euromonitor).
 In noodles market, MSC focuses on premium brands (Omachi, Kokomi) which have profit margin much
higher than economy brands (e.g. Hao Hao of Acecook).
 In sauces & condiment market, MSC dominates the market with both premium (Chin-su, Tam Thai Tu)
and economy brands (Nam Ngu, Nam Ngu De Nhi).
Noodles market 2013
Omach
i, 9.0%
Others,
29.9%
Sauces & condiments market 2013
Tien
Vua, 6.
0%
Kokom
i, 1.9%
Oh
Ngon,
0.9%
Sagami
Market size:
1.04 USDb
Aceco
, 0.3%
ok
B'Fast,
Vietna
0.5%
m
Jsc,…
Source: Euromonitor, TCBS
Nam
Ngu, 2
3.1%
Nam
Ngu
II, 9.0
Tam%
Thai
Rong
Tu, 5.8
ChinViet, 0.
%
su,
5.5
2%
%
Source: Euromonitor, TCBS
Market size:
Other,
805 USDm
56.4%
Instant coffee market 2013
Trung
Nguye
n, 18.1
Vinaca
%
fe
(VCF),
Market size:
32.6%
381 USDm
Nestcaf
e
(Netsle
), 31.1
%
Source: Euromonitor, TCBS

With regards to natural resources segment, Nui Phao started generating revenue since Q2/2014.
 Nui Phao factory was completed since Mar 2013 and ran in ramp-up phase for 1 year. Any sales arising in
ramp-up phase was not recorded in financial statement but to directly clear with capital expenditure of the
project. The Company’s just started recording accounting revenue since Q2/2014.
 9M2014 revenue reached only 1.953 VNDb, due to the decrease in tungsten market price.

In financial segment, Techcombank shows positive signs: 9M2014 pre-tax income reached 1,163 VNDb, achieved
98.5% FY2014 plan; total assets reached 171 VNDtn, increase 7.5% from YE2013; NPL decrease to 2.96%.
Techcom Securities 7
9 Dec 2014
Investment Analysis – Initial Report
BUSINESS PROSPECT


MSN shall consolidate substantial revenue from Nui Phao project from 2014 onwards. However, F&B segment
continues to be the main sources of revenue, accounted for over 75% total group’s revenue.
Masan Consumer sales is expected to grow fast during 2014 – 2018 period (CAGR 12%) thanks to the bright
outlook of domestic consumption demand.
MSN consolidated revenue forecast 2014 – 2018
(VNDb)
30,000
42%
42%
46%
45%
45%
6,320
5,081
15,000
10,000
5,000
11,943
4%
13,250
21,074
603
14,835
10,000
15%
3%
4%
7%
7%
4,041
2,648
8,899
2,270
4,716
5,509
5,766
6,326
2013A 2014F
Sauces & condiments
2015F
5,255
5%
0%
6,450
7,616
8,357
2016F 2017F
Meal solution
2018F
6,941
Instant coffee (VCF)
Net margin
Mineral water (Vinh Hao)
Source: TCBS

7,568
-
2013A 2014E 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F
Masan Consumers
Masan Resources
Gross margin
2,102
3,089
2,860
2,452
5,000
10%
0
498
453
20%
6%
548
15,000
30%
25%
16,642
3,290
663
35%
18,707
730
CAGR 12%
20,000
40%
6,462
5,899
20,000
25,000
50%
45%
39%
25,000
Masan Consumer revenue forecast 2014 - 2018
(VNDb)
Source: TCBS
Masan Resources shall exhibit a high sales growth (CAGR of 18%) in 2014 – 2018 period.
 Tungsten market price should increase in long-term as it is a strategic metal that cannot be replaced
without substantial replacement cost.
 It is expected that the percentage of price realization (*) for Nui Phao’s tungsten product shall increase as
their branding becomes more solid in worldwide market.
 The percentage of tungsten sale volume/capacity is expected to reach 90% by 2018 given the increasing
demand for tungsten and branding of Nui Phao product will be widely accepted.
(*): Since Nui Phao produces tungsten concentrate (grade 65%) while common product traded in global market is tungsten APT (grade ~
88.5%), Nui Phao needs a ratio to calculate its selling price from quoted tungsten APT price. Such ratio is called percentage of price realization.
Nui Phao forecasted revenue 2014 – 2018 (USDm)
350
44%
37%
280
44
48%
47%
50%
51
47
40%
53
51
69
66
Tungsten
210
27%
23
31
45
140
17
26
47
74
74
113
118
135
137
2015
2016
2017
2018
70
67
2014

Nui Phao operating cost 2014 forecast
30%
Fluorspar
20%
Copper
10%
Bismuth
0%
EBITDA
margin
Source: TCBS
Mining
cost, 20
%
Operating
cost 2014F:
90 USDm
Others,
22%
Mainten
ance
cost, 15
%
Processi
ng
cost, 43
%
Source: TCBS
Techcombank could maintain its positive trend along with the growth of Vietnam banking sector.
 Total assets of banking system achieved 6,175 VNDtn (increased 7.3% YTD) as of Oct 2014 because of
higher credit growth (increased 8.6% YTD).
 Consumer lending will be the key driving force for retail banking growth of TCB in upcoming years.
 Techcombank’s credit quality control continues improving (NPL as of 9M2014 decreased to 2.96% from
3.65% as at YE2013).
Techcom Securities 8
9 Dec 2014
Investment Analysis – Initial Report
FINANCIAL PROSPECT

Total assets continuously increase year over year, reached 46.5 VNDtn as at YE2013 (+20% since YE2012)
mostly because of MSN’s various acquisitions in F&B segment, investments to Nui Phao, and high CAPEX for
expanding distribution channel.

In 2014, MSN has raised 8,900 VNDb long-term debts, including 6,800 VNDb from TNTI bond and 2,100 VNDb
from MasanConsumerHolding (MCH) bond. The amount funding from TNTI bond is for refinancing existing loan
and funding for working capital, while MCH bond amount is funding for future capital expenditure.

In 2015, we expect MSN shall not raise substantial capital, given that: (i) Nui Phao started generate profit
(estimated 2015 EBIT of over 1,300 VNDb); and (ii) total cash need for 2015 CAPEX is around 2,000 VND
(proposed acquisition of Cholimex 357 VNDb and purchase of MSC treasury share 1,620 VNDb) which is already
funded by MCH bond issuance.

In upcoming years D/E is expected to be reduced gradually (D/E as at YE2013 was 0.8x), due to: (i) Nui Phao
project is completed, no need for another substantial long-term debts; and (ii) Jade Dragon convertible bond is
likely to be converted since conversion price (65,000 VND/share) is preferable compared to current market price
(84,500 VND/share as at 9 Dec 2014).
Masan Group Consolidated Debt Summary (9M2014)
MSN DEBT SUMMARY (VNDbn)
Total Short-term debts
Bank loan 1 (secured; VND; 4.5% - 10.74%)
Bank loan 2 (secured; USD; 4.5% - 9.91%)
Bank loan 3 (secured; EUR: 5%)
Bank loan 4 (unsecured; VND; 5.5% - 7.5%)
Promissory notes (VND; 0%)
Current portion of LT debts
Total Long-term debts
A. Normal loans
Bank loan 1 (secured; VND; 9.6% - 14.5% M: 2020)
Bank loan 2 (secured; VND; 9.6% - 14.5% M: 2020)
Bank loan 3.1 (secured; VND; 9.6% - 14.5% M: 2020)
Bank loan 3.2 (secured; USD; 8% - 10.5%; M: 2020)
SCB (secured; USD; 8% - 10.5%; M: 2014 - 2020)
J.P.Morgan 1 (secured; USD; LIBOR + 4%; M: 2016; bullet
payment)
J.P.Morgan 2 (unsecured; USD; LIBOR + 5%; M: 2016;
bullet payment)
B. Convertible bonds & convertible loans
IFC 1 (convertible; VND; 20.4%; M: 2016)
IFC 2 (non-convertible; VND; 20.4%; M: 2016)
Jade Dragon (Mauritius) Ltd (USD; 6%; M: 2015)
C. Secured bond
Secured bond 1 (VND; 15%; M: 2016)
Secured bond 2 (VND; benchmark + 3%; M: 2016)
Secured bond 3 (VND; benchmark + 1%; M: 2016)
Secured bond 4 (VND; 12.5%, benchmark + 4%; M: 2016)
Other bond
D. Financial lease (VND; 15%; M: 2018)
Current portion of LT debts
TOTAL IB DEBTS
9M2014
3,343
n.a
23
n.a
n.a
363
16,113
3,972
n.a
n.a
n.a
950
382
568
11,500
600
900
700
2,500
6,800
54
(363)
19,455
YE2013
6,636
2,089
969
1
288
899
2,390
12,067
8,519
390
871
1,413
470
1,686
Comment
Issued to Dragon Cap, were already paid after YE2013
Collateral: MSN's fixed assets & short-term deposits
Collateral: NP assets & license + 68,5 mil TCB shares
SCB loan is prepaid after TNTI bond issued
3,162 Collateral: MSC's invt in affiliate. Guaranteed by MIGA
527 Not guaranteed by MIGA
1,177
39
570
568
4,700
600
900
700
2,500
62
(2,390)
18,703
Conversion price is 43k/stock --> exercised in 7/2014
Collateral: 2,8 mil MSC shares. Guaranteed by MSC
Conversion price is 65k/stock --> probably exercise
Increase by 6,8 VNDtn from TNTI bond
Collateral: 22,3 mil TCB convertible bonds
Collateral: 125 mil MSC shares
Techcom Securities 9
9 Dec 2014
Investment Analysis – Initial Report
Debt schedule
MSN DEBT SCHEDULE (VNDbn)
ASSUMPTIONS
Benchmark rate (assumed average of 4 SOCBs)
LIBOR
LONG-TERM DEBTS
Opening Balance
Add: New Issued
Less: Repayments
Closing Balance
Interest expenses
Annual interest rate
A. Normal Loans
Opening Balance
Add: New Issued
Less: Repayments
Closing Balance
Interest expenses
Annual interest rate
B. Convertible bonds & convertible loans
Opening Balance
Add: New Issued
Less: Repayments
Closing Balance
Interest expenses
Annual interest rate
C. Secured bonds
Opening Balance
Add: New Issued
Less: Repayments
Closing Balance
Interest expenses
Annual interest rate
D. Financial lease
Opening Balance
Add: New Issued
Less: Repayments
Closing Balance
Interest expenses
Annual interest rate
SHORT-TERM DEBTS
Opening Balance
Add: New Issued
Less: Repayments
Closing Balance
Interest expenses
Annual interest rate
TOTAL DEBTS
Total interest expenses
Total interest expenses/Total IB debts
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
7.00%
0.53%
7.00%
0.53%
6.50%
0.53%
6.50%
0.53%
6.50%
0.53%
14,457
-
14,457
8,900
(5,689)
17,630
(1,155)
8.0%
17,630
(1,719)
15,343
(1,743)
9.9%
15,343
(6,419)
8,925
(1,489)
9.7%
8,925
(12)
8,912
(885)
9.9%
8,912
(6,812)
2,100
(884)
9.9%
8,519
-
8,519
(5,487)
3,033
(453)
5.3%
3,033
(1,516)
1,516
(160)
5.3%
1,516
(1,516)
(73)
4.8%
1,177
-
1,177
(190)
948
(158)
13.4%
948
(190)
190
(112)
11.8%
190
(190)
(39)
20.4%
4,700
-
4,700
8,900
13,600
(536)
11.4%
13,600
13,600
(1,465)
10.8%
13,600
(4,700)
8,900
(1,373)
10.1%
8,900.0
8,900.0
(882.0)
9.9%
8,900
(6,800)
2,100
(882)
9.9%
61.6
-
61.6
(12.3)
49.3
(8.0)
13.0%
49.3
(12.3)
37.0
(6.4)
13.0%
37.0
(12.3)
24.6
(4.8)
13.0%
24.6
(12.3)
12.3
(3.2)
13.0%
12.3
(12.3)
(1.6)
13.0%
4,246
1,654
(4,246)
1,654
(340)
8.0%
19,284
(1,495)
8%
1,654
1,992
(1,654)
1,992
(132)
8.0%
17,335
(1,875)
10%
1,992
2,254
(1,992)
2,254
(149)
7.5%
11,179
(1,638)
9%
2,254
2,517
(2,254)
2,517
(169)
7.5%
11,429
(1,054)
9%
2,517
2,739
(2,517)
2,739
(189)
7.5%
4,839
(1,072)
9%
4,246
18,703
Source: TCBS
Techcom Securities 10
9 Dec 2014
Investment Analysis – Initial Report
M&A pipeline done in the past
Deal
Acquired 99.99% PYBECO
Acquired 53.2% Vinacafe Bien Hoa (VCF)
Acquired 40% Proconco
Acquired 63.95% Vinh Hao Mineral Water
Acquired 1.9% Techcombank
Acquired 9.0% Techcombank
Acquired 16% Masan Consumer
Acquired 15% Nui Phao
Acquired 65% Nui Phao
Acquired 19.9% Techcombank
Acquired 72.8% Masan Consumer
Total
Size (USDm)
Time
Note
12
56
96
21
44
187
334
57
Aug-14
2012
Jul-12
2012
Jan-11
Dec-10
Dec-10
Oct-10
Acquired 100% Lamka, which owns 99,99% PYBECO.
136
227
164
1,334
Sep-10
Dec-09
Aug-09
Non-cash, issued promissory note to Dragon Capital
Cash, paid to Prudential Fund & PCS International Fund
Purchased convertible bond worth 928 VNDb
Purchased convertible bond worth 4,800 VNDb
Through acquisition of TNTI which owns 15% Nui Phao
Source: Macquarie, TCBS
Fund raising
Investor/Creditor
Size (USDm)
Time
Various creditors
Various creditors
TPG Growth Fund
J.P. Morgan
KKR
Mount Kellett
Standard Chartered Bank
100
324
50
175
200
100
80
Dec-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Jul-13
Apr-13
Aug-12
Mar-12
Mount Kellett\MRG
Richard Chandler\Kairos
J.P. Morgan
KKR
Vietcombank
Vietnam Development Bank
Goldman Sachs\Jade Dragon
30
50
108
159
90
115
30
2012
2012
Aug-11
Apr-11
Mar-11
Feb-11
2010
20
30
40
9
1,710
Dec-09
2009
2009
2009
House Foods Corporation
TPG Capital
IFC
Mekong Capital
Total
Note
MCH bond guaranteed by VDB
TNTI bond
Acquired 49% Masan Agri
Loan to Masan Industrial (subsidiary of MSC)
Acquired 8.1% Masan Consumers
Acquired 20% Nui Phao
Syndicated loan funding for Nui Phao. Has been cleared
by TNTI bond
Convertible loan to MSN. Converted, clear
Convertible loan to MSN. Converted, clear
Loan to Masan Industrial (subsidiary of MSC)
Acquired 10% Masan Consumers
Loan to MR funding for Nui Phao
Loan to MR funding for Nui Phao
Bought MSN convertible bond. Probably be converted in
2015 (conversion @65,000/share)
Acquired 1.85% MSN (9 mil @40,000 VND/share)
Bought MSN convertible bond. Converted, clear
Bought MSN convertible bond. Converted, clear
Acquired Masan Food
Source: TCBS
Techcom Securities 11
9 Dec 2014
Investment Analysis – Initial Report
Forecasted F&B Revenue – Masan Consumers
Net revenue
2009
3,958
105.9%
2,321
% Growth
Sauces & condiments
% Growth
% Adjusment
70.0%
Nam Ngu
1,483
% Growth
Nam Ngu II
92
% Growth
Tam Thai Tu
419
% Growth
Chin-su
312
% Growth
Rong Viet
14
% Growth
Meal solution
1,221
% Growth
648.9%
Noodles - Omachi
354
% Growth
Noodles - Tiến Vua
867
% Growth
Noodles - Kokomi
% Growth
Noodles - Oh Ngon
% Growth
Noodles - Sagami
% Growth
Congee - B'Fast
% Growth
Instant coffee (VCF)
1,021
% Growth
18.3%
Mineral water (Vinh Hao)
% Growth
2010
5,586
41.1%
3,204
38.1%
70.0%
1,742
17.4%
559
505.5%
476
13.8%
411
31.5%
16
15.8%
1,702
39.5%
750
111.9%
808
-6.8%
-
2011
7,057
26.3%
3,980
24.2%
70.0%
2,124
22.0%
769
37.7%
558
17.0%
509
24.0%
19
17.0%
2,429
42.7%
1,095
45.9%
941
16.5%
240
130
-
154
18.6%
-
2012
10,389
47.2%
4,865
22.2%
69.5%
2,577
21.3%
1,004
30.6%
647
16.1%
614
20.5%
22
16.1%
3,465
42.6%
1,607
46.8%
1,145
21.7%
382
59.3%
181
17.4%
-
-
-
-
1,302
27.5%
1,586
21.8%
2,060
29.9%
-
2013A
11,943
14.9%
5,255
8.0%
71.3%
2,784
8.0%
1,085
8.0%
699
8.0%
663
8.0%
24
8.0%
4,041
16.6%
1,958
21.8%
1,305
14.0%
413
8.3%
196
8.3%
65
109
2,102
2.1%
453
2014F
13,250
10.9%
5,766
9.7%
2015F
14,835
12.0%
6,326
9.7%
2016F
16,642
12.2%
6,941
9.7%
2017F
18,707
12.4%
7,616
9.7%
2018F
21,074
12.7%
8,357
9.7%
3,063
10.0%
1,193
10.0%
755
8.0%
729
10.0%
25
5.0%
4,716
16.7%
2,385
21.8%
1,488
14.0%
448
8.3%
212
8.3%
69
5.0%
114
5.0%
2,270
8.0%
498
10.0%
3,369
10.0%
1,313
10.0%
815
8.0%
802
10.0%
27
5.0%
5,509
16.8%
2,906
21.8%
1,696
14.0%
485
8.3%
230
8.3%
72
5.0%
120
5.0%
2,452
8.0%
548
10.0%
3,706
10.0%
1,444
10.0%
881
8.0%
882
10.0%
28
5.0%
6,450
17.1%
3,541
21.8%
1,934
14.0%
525
8.3%
249
8.3%
76
5.0%
126
5.0%
2,648
8.0%
603
10.0%
4,076
10.0%
1,588
10.0%
951
8.0%
971
10.0%
29
5.0%
7,568
17.3%
4,314
21.8%
2,205
14.0%
569
8.3%
269
8.3%
79
5.0%
132
5.0%
2,860
8.0%
663
10.0%
4,484
10.0%
1,747
10.0%
1,027
8.0%
1,068
10.0%
31
5.0%
8,899
17.6%
5,256
21.8%
2,513
14.0%
616
8.3%
292
8.3%
83
5.0%
139
5.0%
3,089
8.0%
730
10.0%
Source: TCBS
Techcom Securities 12
9 Dec 2014
Investment Analysis – Initial Report
Forecasted P&L of Nui Phao project – Masan Resources
Projected Revenue
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
Tungsten
1,409
2,378
2,485
2,836
2,874
2,838
2,867
2,698
3,008
3,215
3,140
3,063
2,912
2,757
2,785
Fluorspar
978
1,559
1,559
1,446
1,388
1,399
1,460
1,501
1,499
1,486
1,498
1,499
1,470
1,459
1,459
Cooper
537
655
941
1,118
1,072
945
858
1,062
1,091
1,014
926
789
702
672
672
Bismuth
366
490
914
1,062
986
848
828
1,104
1,144
1,065
946
769
670
631
631
Total revenue
3,290
5,081
5,899
6,462
6,320
6,030
6,012
6,365
6,742
6,779
6,510
6,121
5,754
5,520
5,548
Depreciation
1,350
1,350
1,350
1,350
1,350
1,350
1,350
1,350
1,350
1,350
1,350
1,350
1,350
1,350
1,350
Other COGS
1,003
1,454
1,452
1,452
1,452
1,452
1,452
1,452
1,452
1,452
1,452
1,452
1,452
1,452
1,452
Total COGS
2,353
2,805
2,803
2,803
2,803
2,803
2,803
2,803
2,803
2,803
2,803
2,803
2,803
2,803
2,803
Gross Profit
937
2,277
3,096
3,660
3,517
3,228
3,209
3,563
3,939
3,977
3,707
3,318
2,952
2,717
2,745
Selling expense
26
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
G&A expenses
861
877
881
873
859
862
866
867
841
836
835
823
823
820
540
Operating profit
Interest expenses
Pre-tax income
50
1,374
2,190
2,762
2,634
2,340
2,318
2,671
3,073
3,116
2,847
2,470
2,103
1,872
2,180
748
816
816
816
816
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-698
558
1,374
1,946
1,818
2,340
2,318
2,671
3,073
3,116
2,847
2,470
2,103
1,872
2,180
Source: TCBS
Techcom Securities 13
9 Dec 2014
Investment Analysis – Initial Report
APPENDIX
FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
No. Of Shares at YE (m)
Cum.Adj. Factor
P&L
Net Sales
Cost of Good Sold
Gross Profit
Operating Exp. - Selling
Operating Exp. - G&A
Other Operating Exp.
Total Operating Exp.
Operating Profit
Interest Income
Interest Expenses
Investment Income
Gain/Loss from Disposals
Other Non Operating Income
Net Non-Operating Income
Other Income/Expenses
Pre Tax Profit B4 XO
Income Taxes
Net Profit B4 XO & MI
Minority Interest (PL)
Net Profit after Taxes after MI
Extraordinary Items
Net Profit
Unadjusted DPS
Balance Sheet
Cash and Cash Equivalent
Short Term Investments
Accounts Receivables
Inventories
Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Long Term Investments
Net Fixed Assets
Other LT Assets
Total Assets
Accounts Payable
Short Term Debt
Other Current Liabilities
Current Liabilities
Long Term Debt
Other LT Liabilities
Total Liabilities
Minority Interest (Liab.)
Paid-in Capital
Capital Surplus
Retained Earning & Reserves
Other Shareholder Equity
Total Shareholder Equity
Cash Flow
Depreciation and Amortization
Capital Expenditure (CAPEX)
Free Cash Flow
EBITDA
2009
485.4
0.7
VNDb
3,958
2,584
1,374
637
105
0
742
632
102
89
49
0
38
101
0
733
53
680
263
417
0
417
0
VNDb
1,850
50
57
199
336
2,442
3,920
610
46
7,017
267
687
257
1,211
735
2
1,948
307
4,854
1,422
434
4,329
4,762
VNDb
71
412
843
703
2010
515.3
0.7
2011
515.3
0.7
2012
687.3
0.9
2013
734.9
1.0
2014
735.8
1.0
2015
744.5
1.0
2016
744.5
1.0
2017
744.5
1.0
2018
744.5
1.0
5,586
3,195
2,392
951
214
0
1,165
1,227
357
234
161
0
1,235
1,519
0
2,746
117
2,629
346
2,283
0
2,283
0
7,057
3,998
3,059
1,010
406
0
1,417
1,642
1,125
316
393
0
25
1,226
0
2,869
373
2,496
523
1,973
0
1,973
0
10,389
6,179
4,210
1,325
728
0
2,053
2,158
761
279
-309
0
158
331
0
2,489
526
1,963
702
1,261
0
1,261
0
11,943
6,943
4,999
1,982
890
0
2,871
2,128
392
417
-193
0
104
-115
0
2,013
706
1,307
856
451
0
451
0
16,540
10,092
6,448
2,744
1,232
0
3,976
2,472
465
1,495
641
0
-78
-467
0
2,005
561
1,444
866
577
0
577
0
19,916
11,463
8,453
3,305
1,484
0
4,788
3,665
478
1,875
654
0
-78
-821
0
2,844
740
2,105
1,263
842
0
842
0
22,540
12,498
10,042
3,740
1,679
0
5,419
4,623
582
1,638
667
0
-78
-467
0
4,156
831
3,325
1,995
1,330
0
1,330
0
25,169
13,675
11,494
4,176
1,875
0
6,051
5,443
497
1,054
680
0
-78
45
0
5,488
1,098
4,390
2,634
1,756
0
1,756
0
27,394
15,023
12,371
4,545
2,041
0
6,586
5,785
734
1,072
694
0
-78
277
0
6,063
1,213
4,850
2,910
1,940
0
1,940
0
3,885
0
64
290
388
4,627
8,100
8,266
137
21,130
444
1,125
1,657
3,225
5,001
756
8,981
1,525
5,153
2,166
-6,350
16,974
10,624
10,423
373
194
613
1,312
12,541
9,321
11,565
145
33,573
423
2,032
1,171
3,626
7,410
982
12,018
5,679
5,153
2,166
-1,890
17,766
15,876
7,559
0
121
564
977
9,221
11,314
17,977
187
38,699
974
1,793
1,981
4,748
12,647
1,599
18,995
5,821
6,873
7,999
-2,694
16,578
13,884
8,986
0
351
1,070
791
11,199
10,761
23,558
984
46,502
942
6,636
2,206
9,784
12,067
1,390
23,241
8,829
7,349
9,602
6,357
8,076
14,433
9,235
0
1,024
2,275
1,180
13,714
11,403
23,582
602
49,301
1,659
3,373
2,789
7,821
15,911
1,925
25,657
7,729
7,358
9,631
7,801
8,114
15,915
11,236
0
632
1,525
1,421
14,814
12,056
22,679
784
50,333
808
8,410
3,556
12,774
8,925
2,317
24,016
7,729
7,445
10,112
9,906
8,682
18,588
9,596
0
1,242
2,618
1,609
15,065
12,724
21,436
992
50,216
2,322
2,266
4,452
9,040
8,912
2,623
20,575
7,729
7,445
10,112
13,230
8,682
21,913
14,174
0
851
1,915
1,796
18,735
13,404
20,199
1,272
53,610
665
9,329
4,555
14,550
2,100
2,929
19,579
7,729
7,445
10,112
17,621
8,682
26,303
14,317
0
1,427
3,065
1,955
20,764
14,098
18,967
1,166
54,995
3,059
2,739
5,027
10,825
2,100
3,188
16,113
7,729
7,445
10,112
22,471
8,682
31,153
105
851
3,483
1,331
142
2,208
-805
1,785
350
5,785
-1,807
2,508
489
3,840
-2,132
2,617
1,861
1,884
1,531
4,333
1,916
1,013
5,212
5,581
1,968
725
6,397
6,591
2,018
782
5,825
7,461
2,074
842
7,921
7,860
Source: TCBS
Techcom Securities 14
9 Dec 2014
Investment Analysis – Initial Report
RATIO ANALYSIS
# of Shares O/S
P/E
EV/EBITDA
P/BV
P/Op. Profit
P/FCF
P/Sales
Dvd Yield
EPS b4 XO
% Change
Op. Profit PS
% Change
FCF PS
% Change
RevPS
% Change
EBITDA PS
% Change
BVPS
% Change
ROE
ROA
Gross Profit Margin
Operating Margin
Pre tax Margin
Net Profit Margin
IB Debt/Equity
IB Debt/Assets
IB Debt/EBITDA
Interest Coverage
Leverage Ratio (A/E)
Cash/Equity
Current Ratio
Quick Ratio
Cash Ratio
Receivable Days
Inventory Days
Payable Days
Cash Conversion Cycle
Net WC Ratio
WC Turnover
Total Asset Turnover
Fixed Asset Turnover
Unit
m
x
x
x
x
x
x
%
VND
%
VND
%
VND
%
VND
%
VND
%
VND
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
x
x
x
x
x
%
x
x
x
days
days
days
days
%
x
x
x
2009
485.4
149.1
88.3
13.0
98.3
73.7
15.7
0.0
567
DUPONT ANALYSIS
Unit
x
x
%
x
%
x
%
Net Income/Pretax Income
Pretax Income/EBIT
EBIT/Net sales
Net Sales/Assets
ROA
Assets/Equity
ROE
8.7
5.9
34.7
16.0
18.5
10.5
0.3
0.2
2.0
7.1
1.5
38.8
2.0
1.9
1.5
5
28
38
-4
17.5
3.2
0.6
6.5
2010
515.3
27.2
46.6
5.8
50.6
17.8
11.1
0.0
3,107
448%
1,669
94%
4,739
313%
7,601
41%
1,811
89%
14,456
123%
29.7
16.2
42.8
22.0
49.2
40.9
0.5
0.3
4.6
5.3
1.8
36.6
1.4
1.3
1.2
4
28
39
-8
6.6
4.2
0.4
1.3
2009
0.6
1.2
16.0
0.6
5.9
1.5
8.7
2010
0.8
2.2
22.0
0.4
16.2
1.8
29.7
860
1,147
5,385
957
6,480
2011
515.3
31.5
34.8
3.9
37.8
neg
8.8
0.0
2,685
-14%
2,235
34%
-1,095
9,602
26%
2,428
34%
21,602
49%
14.9
7.2
43.3
23.3
40.6
28.0
0.4
0.3
5.3
5.2
2.1
65.7
3.5
3.3
2.9
7
41
37
11
26.6
1.4
0.3
0.7
2012
687.3
49.3
24.8
4.5
28.8
neg
6.0
0.0
1,715
-36%
2,936
31%
-2,459
-55%
14,137
47%
3,412
41%
18,892
-13%
8.5
3.5
40.5
20.8
24.0
12.1
0.7
0.4
5.8
7.7
2.4
54.4
1.9
1.8
1.6
6
35
42
-1
11.6
1.6
0.3
0.7
2013
734.9
137.6
23.7
4.3
29.2
neg
5.2
0.0
614
-64%
2,896
-1%
-2,900
-15%
16,250
15%
3,561
4%
19,639
4%
3.2
1.1
41.9
17.8
16.9
3.8
0.8
0.4
7.1
5.1
3.0
62.3
1.1
1.0
0.9
7
43
47
3
3.0
4.1
0.3
0.6
2011
0.7
1.7
23.3
0.3
7.2
2.1
14.9
2012
0.5
1.2
20.8
0.3
3.5
2.4
8.5
2013
0.2
0.9
17.8
0.3
1.1
3.0
3.2
2014
735.8
107.5
14.3
3.9
25.1
40.6
3.8
0.0
786
28%
3,363
16%
2,083
22,506
38%
5,896
66%
21,656
10%
3.8
1.2
39.0
14.9
12.1
3.5
0.8
0.4
4.5
1.7
3.2
58.0
1.8
1.5
1.2
15
60
42
34
12.0
4.5
0.3
0.7
2015
744.5
73.8
11.1
3.3
16.9
11.9
3.1
0.0
1,146
46%
4,988
48%
7,092
240%
27,100
20%
7,595
29%
25,293
17%
4.9
1.7
42.4
18.4
14.3
4.2
0.7
0.3
3.1
2.0
2.9
60.4
1.2
1.0
0.9
15
60
42
34
4.1
5.0
0.4
0.9
2016
744.5
46.7
9.4
2.8
13.4
9.7
2.8
0.0
1,810
58%
6,291
26%
8,705
23%
30,671
13%
8,968
18%
29,817
18%
6.6
2.6
44.6
20.5
18.4
5.9
0.4
0.2
1.7
2.8
2.5
43.8
1.7
1.4
1.1
15
60
42
34
12.0
5.6
0.4
1.0
2017
744.5
35.4
8.3
2.4
11.4
10.7
2.5
0.0
2,390
32%
7,407
18%
7,925
-9%
34,248
12%
10,153
13%
35,791
20%
7.3
3.4
45.7
21.6
21.8
7.0
0.3
0.2
1.5
5.2
2.2
53.9
1.3
1.2
1.0
15
60
42
34
7.8
4.9
0.5
1.2
2018
744.5
32.0
7.9
2.0
10.7
7.8
2.3
0.0
2,640
10%
7,872
6%
10,778
36%
37,275
9%
10,695
5%
42,390
18%
6.8
3.6
45.2
21.1
22.1
7.1
0.1
0.1
0.6
5.4
1.9
46.0
1.9
1.6
1.3
15
60
42
34
18.1
3.9
0.5
1.4
2014
0.3
0.8
14.9
0.3
1.2
3.2
3.8
2015
0.3
0.8
18.4
0.4
1.7
2.9
4.9
2016
0.3
0.9
20.5
0.4
2.6
2.5
6.6
2017
0.3
1.0
21.6
0.5
3.4
2.2
7.3
2018
0.3
1.0
21.1
0.5
3.6
1.9
6.8
Source: TCBS
Techcom Securities 15
9 Dec 2014
Investment Analysis – Initial Report
Nui Phao mineral products price movement
Tungsten APT (USD/mtu)
Copper (USD/metric ton)
500.0
12,000
317.5
400.0
9,000
6,515.0
300.0
200.0
6,000
100.0
3,000
0
Source: LME Exchange
Source: Metal Bulletin
Bismuth (USD/pound)
Fluorspar (USD/metric ton)
20.0
15.0
750
600
11.4
10.0
450
505
300
5.0
150
-
0
Source: Metal Bulletin
Source: Industrial Minerals magazine (London)
9 Dec 2014
Techcom Securities 16
Investment Analysis – Initial Report
Contact:
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