Indonesia Banking Report

Transcription

2014
Indonesia
Banking Report
Economic
overview
Highlights
Risk
profile
• Indonesia’s largest bank, PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk, reported 855.039
trillion Indonesian rupiah (US$68.85 billion) in assets at the end of 2014.
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk was the country’s second-largest
bank with 801.955 trillion rupiah in assets.
Industry
overview
• According to Bank Indonesia, the country’s central bank, Indonesia is
home to the world’s largest retail Islamic banking market, with 17.3 million customers, 2,990 bank offices, 1,267 Shariah-compliant products and
43,000 employees as of 2013.
Regulatory
environment
• Aggregate credit extended by banks grew by 11.65% to 3.742 quadrillion
rupiah in 2014, while deposits grew by 12.35% to 4.173 quadrillion rupiah.
Major
players
Islamic
banking
Bank
branching
Mergers &
acquisitions
Capital
markets
COMPILED BY:
Divya Lulla
Senior Analyst
DESIGN BY: Cat Weeks
All data as of April 1, 2015.
• The industry’s asset-weighted average return on average equity fell 146
basis points year over year to 18.44% in 2014.
• Over the course of 2014, the industry’s weighted average Tier 1 ratio rose
58 basis points to 15.08%, the highest among Indonesia’s peer nations:
Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.
• The weighted average nonperforming loan ratio increased to 2.07% in
2014 from 1.80% in 2013 but fell from 3.36% posted in 2009.
• Five-year credit default swaps on five-year Indonesian sovereign bonds
traded at 153.25 basis points as of April 2, 2015, down from the mid-2013
peak of 295.22 basis points.
• Shares in the largest Indonesian banks have outperformed the wider
Asian banking industry since 2013. Between Jan. 1, 2013, and April 1,
2015, shares in Bank Rakyat Indonesia and PT Bank Negara Indonesia
(Persero) Tbk returned 98.47% and 108.98%, respectively, while the SNL
Asia-Pacific Bank index gained 16.12%. Only PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk generated a lower return than the index.
• There have been eight M&A deals targeting Indonesian banks since the
beginning of 2014, including two announced in the first quarter of 2015.
The most recent one is Sumitomo Corp.’s Feb. 18 acquisition of a 17.5%
stake in PT Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk, worth $463.12 million.
• As of April 1, PT Bank of India Indonesia Tbk was the only Indonesian
bank to raise common equity in 2015. There have been 16 offerings since
2013, 10 of which took place that year.
As of March 31, 2015, 13,088 Indonesian rupiah = US$1.00
Market Research & Analysis
2014 Indonesia Banking Report
Economic overview
LAOS VIETNAM
Top 10 Asia-Pacific economies by nominal GDP
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Nominal
GDP
Country
(US$B)
China
10,449.0
Japan
4,830.0
India
2,131.0
Australia
1,486.0
South Korea
1,432.0
Indonesia
850.6
Taiwan
505.4
Thailand
389.0
Malaysia
333.1
Singapore
310.3
GDP growth
2014,
projected Population
(%)
(M)
7.00
1,356.0
1.80
127.0
6.50
1,256.0
2.50
23.5
3.70
50.5
5.90
253.3
3.20
23.4
4.50
67.2
5.40
30.2
3.80
5.5
THAILAND
Public
debt/
GDP
(%)
16.70
226.60
51.30
33.40
37.20
24.20
36.50
48.50
54.10
106.50
CAMBODIA
PHILIPPINES
BRUNEI
MALAYSIA
PAPUA
NEW
GUINEA
INDONESIA
All economic data is for fiscal 2014, unless otherwise noted.
Sources: SNL Financial, The Economist Intelligence Unit Ltd.
AUSTRALIA
Indonesia is the sixth-largest economy in the Asia-Pacific region, with a nominal GDP of US$850.6
billion as of 2014. The country’s 253.3 million people make it the fourth-largest country in the
world by population. According to a PricewaterhouseCoopers study, Indonesia may become
the fourth-largest economy in the world by real GDP at constant prices by 2050.
Over the past three decades, Indonesia’s real GDP has more than quintupled. The country’s median household income more than doubled to US$6,370 in 2014 from US$3,320 in 2006, while
its unemployment rate sank to 5.7% from 10.28%.
9
Median household income (US$000)
Consumer prices growth (%)
Unemployment rate (%)
14
Median HH income (US$000)
8
12
7
10
6
5
8
4
6
3
4
2
2
1
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
0
Consumer prices growth, unemployment rate (%)
Economic and demographic trends in Indonesia
2014, 2015, 2016 data represents forecast values.
Median household income = median nominal disposable income earned by households per annum.
Sources: SNL Financial, The Economist Intelligence Unit Ltd. (EIU)
2
Agriculture, livestock, forestry,
and fishery
Mining and quarrying
Manufacturing industry
According to the International Monetary Agriculture,
livestock, forestry,
and fishery
Miningatand
quarrying
Percentage
distribution
of GDP*
current
market
Agriculture,
livestock,
forestry, and fishe
Construction
Fund, Indonesia’s real GDP growth decel- Manufacturing
Construction
pricesindustry
by industrial origin 2013
Manufacturing
industry
Trade,
and
restaurant
erated to 5% in 2014 from 5.6% in 2013 Trade, hotelAgriculture,
and restaurant
Financial,
realhotel
estate
and
business services
livestock, forestry,
andfishery
fishery
Construction
forestry and
Trade, hotel
and
restaurant
Financial,
real
estate
and
because of slower-than-expected domes- Services** Mining and quarrying
Others***
Manufacturing
industry
Financial,services
real estate and business servi
business
tic consumption and investment. Growth
Construction
Services**
Manufacturing
industry
Trade,
hotel and
restaurant
Others***
is projected to remain almost unchanged
Others***
7.78%
Financial, real estate and business services
Construction
at 5.2% in 2015 but is expected to accelServices**
7.78%
Others***
11.02%
14.43%
erate to 5.5% in 2016 thanks to policies
Trade, hotel and restaurant
7.52%
and reforms introduced in January 2015,
Financial, 11.02%
real estate and business services
7.78%
23
7.78%
as well as efforts made to increase public
14.43%
Services**
11.02%
14.33%
spending, according to the IMF’s April 2015
7.78%
Others***
11.24%
11.24%
9.99%
14.43%
“World Economic Outlook” report. And The
7.52%
11.02%
7.52%
11.02%
14.43%
23.70%
World Bank cut its forecast for the country’s
11.24%
11.24%
7.52%
2015 economic growth to 5.2% from its July
7.52%
14.33%
23.70%
23.70%
2014 estimate of 5.6%, pointing to to weak9.99%
14.33%
14.33%
14.33%
er investment growth and sluggish exports.
9.99%
23.70%
Bank Indonesia, on the other hand, is more
9.99%
optimistic. The central bank predicts that
the economy will grow 5.4% to 5.8% in 2015
9.99%
thanks to a favorable investment climate,
* 2013 GDP composition data is on a preliminary basis.
increased public spending and improv** Services include administration, government and defense services.
ing exports, according to its March 2015
*** Others include transport, communication, electricity, gas, water supply, etc.
Source: Statistical Yearbook of Indonesia 2014
“Monetary Policy Review.”
Indonesia’s real GDP grows more than 5x since 1980
3,500
3,000
Real GDP (Rp. trillion)
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2014, 2015, 2016 data represents forecast values.
Base year = 2000
GDP valuation methods = market prices
Rp.= Indonesian rupiah
Source: International Monetary Fund
3
Exports by oil-producing Indonesia fell 9.75% in value year over year in March 2015 due to falling oil and gas prices. However, a weak rupiah led to a 13.39% decline in monthly imports year
over year, which helped the country post a trade surplus for a fourth consecutive month.
In 2013, the manufacturing sector accounted for the largest share of Indonesian GDP at 23.70%,
followed by the agriculture, livestock, forestry and fishery sector and the trade, hotel and restaurant sector at 14.43% and 14.33%, respectively.
According to Bank Indonesia, growth in manufacturing is expected to accelerate in 2015, driven
by an influx of foreign investment.
In 2013, Japan and China were Indonesia’s largest export partners, accounting for 14.8% and
12.4% of the Southeast Asian country’s total exports, respectively. On the import side, China
took the lead, accounting for 16.0% of Indonesian imports, followed by Singapore at 13.7%, according to Indonesia’s central bank.
Major export partners in 2013 (%)
Japan
Major import partners in 2013 (%)
14.8
China
China
12.4
Singapore
Singapore
9.1
USA
6.3
Malaysia
5.8
13.7
Japan
8.6
Korea
16.0
10.3
Malaysia
Total exports (FOB values)=
US$182.55 billion
7.1
Korea
6.2
Thailand
5.7
Thailand
3.3
USA
Taiwan
3.2
Africa
3.0
Africa
3.1
Australia
2.7
Others
33.3
0
10
20
30
Total imports (CIF values)=
US$186.63 billion
4.9
Others
40
30.4
0
10
20
30
40
Percentage share based on export and import customs declaration documents from Directorate General of Customs and Excise.
FOB = free on board
CIF= cost, insurance and freight
Source: Statistical Yearbook of Indonesia 2014
4
As of March 31, the U.S. dollar gained 5.4% against the rupiah year-to-date and was up 33.6%
from the beginning of 2013. As of March 31, US$1.00 was equivalent to 13,088 rupiah, compared
to 9,795 rupiah on Jan. 1, 2013. A weak currency usually helps to boost exports, but since Indonesia uses imported raw materials for production, its production costs increase, Ahmad Erani
Yustika, a professor at Brawijaya University in Malang, East Java, told Reuters.
On Feb.17, 2015, Bank Indonesia cut rates for the first time in three years, lowering its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.50%. The central bank also cut the deposit facility rate
by 25 basis points to 5.50%, while holding the lending facility rate at 8.00%.
Bank Indonesia had raised interest rates as recently as November 2014 to counter inflationary
pressures caused by a reduction in fuel subsidies.
Click here for economic and demographic data.
Indonesian rupiah against US dollar since 2013
Rp./USD
Indonesian rupiah per U.S. dollar
14,000
13,000
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
Source: SNL Financial
Risk profile
In January 2015, Moody’s affirmed its Baa3 rating for Indonesia’s government bonds, saying it
is supported by the country’s “low government debt ratios, narrow fiscal deficits, large size of
the economy and healthy GDP growth prospects.” On Nov. 13, 2014, Fitch Ratings affirmed Indonesia’s sovereign rating at BBB- with a stable outlook, noting that a number of factors underpinned the rating, including policy measures by Indonesia’s central bank to focus on stability,
high real GDP growth, a peaceful government change in October 2014 and a well-capitalized
banking system boasting “relatively strong” asset quality.
5
Country risk
Country and province
Political
Operational
Security
Terrorism
Indonesia
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Aceh
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Bali
Low
Low
Low
Medium
Maluku
Medium
High High Medium
Papua, West Papua
High High High Low
Copyright © 2014 by Control Risks Inc.
In March 2015, Fitch Ratings said slowing credit growth helped to curb the buildup of systemic
risks in Indonesia’s banking sector. The agency lowered the country’s macro-prudential risk to
2 from 3, or to “moderate” from “high,” primarily due to a slowdown in the country’s real credit
expansion to below 5% in 2014.
According to data from S&P Capital IQ, credit default swaps on the country’s five-year bonds
traded at 153.25 basis points as of April 2, 2015, down from a 295.22-basis-point peak in mid2013.
Indonesia 5-year tenor midpoint CDS prices vs. peers (bps)
Malaysia
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Sources: S&P Capital IQ, SNL Financial
6
Industry overview
Indonesia’s banking system is the 12th-largest in the Asia-Pacific region, with total bank assets
of US$341 billion in 2014, based on estimates by The Economist Intelligence Unit Ltd. The country’s bank assets represent about 40% of its nominal GDP, a low level compared to its regional
peers. The Philippines holds bank assets equivalent to about 80% of its nominal GDP, while in
Malaysia, ratio shoots up to 250%.
Top Asia-Pacific countries by total bank assets
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Country
China
Japan
Australia
South Korea
India
Hong Kong
Taiwan
Singapore
Malaysia
Thailand
New Zealand
Indonesia
Philippines
Vietnam
Pakistan
Total bank assets (US$B)
FY'14
FY'13
FY'12
16,899.00
15,108.78
13,056.48
9,322.77
8,885.01
10,160.71
3,182.26
3,013.43
3,346.51
2,167.43
1,976.24
1,880.07
2,153.78
1,786.85
1,769.66
1,761.70
1,650.89
1,593.29
1,299.97
1,213.44
1,181.86
889.18
816.04
772.46
832.62
746.76
742.94
530.89
492.92
433.38
347.79
332.16
333.85
341.15
293.32
292.21
236.65
201.60
184.26
201.69
181.30
158.53
115.09
85.40
78.26
2014 bank assets/
GDP (%)
161.73
193.02
214.15
151.36
101.07
612.55
257.22
286.55
249.98
136.48
180.07
40.11
80.82
107.97
46.66
Long-term sovereign rating
Fitch
Moody's
A+
Aa3
A
A1
AAA
Aaa
AAAa3
BBBBaa3
AA+
Aa1
A+
Aa3
AAA
Aaa
AA3
BBB+
Baa1
AA
Aaa
BBBBaa3
BBBBaa2
BBB1
NA
Caa1
Limited to countries where the data is available.
NA = not available
Sources: SNL Financial, The Economist Intelligence Unit Ltd.
According to the Feburary Indonesian Banking Statistics report issued by the Indonesian Financial Services Authority, which is known locally as Otoritas Jasa Keuangan, or OJK, the country’s commercial and regional banks have grown considerably over the past six years, with their
aggregate assets amounting to 5.705 quadrillion rupiah (US$459.35 billion), compared to 2.343
quadrillion rupiah (US$214.96 billion) in 2008.The aggregate assets of the country stood at 5.773
quadrillion rupiah (US$ 444.21 billion), at the end of February 2015.
7
Meanwhile, aggregate credit at the country’s banks grew to 3.743 quadrillion rupiah (US$301.35
billion) as of December 2014 from 1.333 quadrillion rupiah (US$122.31 billion) in 2008. Deposits
have not quite kept up though. Indonesia’s aggregate credit-to-deposit ratio stood at 89.68%
in December 2014, compared to 75.12% in 2008. In February 2015, the aggregate credit in Indonesia totalled 3.735 quadrillion rupiah (US$287.37 billion), while the credit-to-deposit ratio
dropped 98 percentage points to 88.70%.
Aggregate assets at Indonesian banks (Rp. trillion)
7,000
6,000
5,705.03
5,773.59
FY'14
FY'15*
5,031.84
5,000
4,329.98
3,708.63
4,000
3,054.59
3,000
2,343.09
2,571.66
2,000
1,000
0
FY'08
FY'09
FY'10
FY'11
FY'12
FY'13
Aggregate credits, deposits at Indonesian banks
Total credit (Rp. trillion)
Total deposits (Rp. trillion)
Credits/deposits (%)
95
Total credits, deposits (Rp. trillion)
4,000
90
3,500
3,000
85
2,500
80
2,000
75
1,500
1,000
70
500
0
Credits/deposits (%)
4,500
FY'10
FY'11
FY'12
FY'13
FY'14
FY'15*
65
* FY’15 data is as of February, 2015.
Limited aggregate data for commercial banks and rural banks.
Credits includes third-party credits both in rupiah and foreign exchange.
Deposits includes demand deposits, savings and time deposits both in rupiah and foreign exchange.
Rp. = Indonesian rupiah
Sources: SNL Financial, Bank Indonesia
8
Total domestic credit extended by financial firms in Indonesia stood at 45.64% of GDP in 2013,
while the ratio was 51.86% in the Philippines. Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore all had ratios
above 100%.
Domestic credit as a percentage of GDP (%)
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Represents domestic credit provided by the financial sector as a percentage of GDP.
Source: The World Bank
In 2014, SNL Financial-covered Indonesian banks delivered an asset-weighted average return on
average equity of 18.44%, better than returns generated by their peers in Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Similarly, Indonesia’s weighted average Tier 1 ratio of 15.08%
was the highest in the five-country peer group in 2014.
According to the April 2015 progress report on the implementation of the Basel regulatory
framework, Indonesia adopted Basel III capital guidelines in January 2014. Regional peers,
Thailand, Singapore and the Philippines, have also adopted Basel III and are in the process of
phasing in the capital requirements.
The aggregate nonperforming loan ratio of Indonesian banks fell to 2.07% in 2014 from 3.36%
in 2009, but it was still the second-highest in the regional peer group. Thailand had the highest
ratio of 2.89% in 2014.
Bank Indonesia has expressed concern about growing NPLs particularly in construction, mining, trading and social services.
Click here for more industry news.
9
Aggregate banking trends for select countries
ROAE (%)
30
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
25
20
15
10
5
0
FY'09
FY'10
FY'11
FY'12
FY'13
FY'14
Tier 1 ratio (%)
18.0
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
FY'10
FY'11
Singapore
Thailand
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
FY'09
FY'12
FY'13
FY'14
Nonperforming loans-to-total loans (%)
7.0
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
FY'10
FY'11
Singapore
Thailand
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
FY'09
FY'12
FY'13
FY'14
All ratios are based on asset-weighted average of SNL-covered banks in the respective regions.
10
Regulatory environment
Bank Indonesia came into existence as an independent central bank with the May 17, 1999,
enactment of a new Central Bank Act, which was amended Jan. 15, 2004. The act declared the
central bank an independent state institution free from interference by the government or any
other external parties.
On Dec. 31, 2013, Bank Indonesia transferred its regulatory and supervisory duties over the
banking sector to OJK but retained responsibility over monetary policy and managing inflation.
Bank Indonesia is managed by a Board of Governors and holds the power to conduct monetary
policy through monetary targets, including the application of monetary controls based on Shariah principles. The central bank also operates an exchange rate policy designed to minimize
excessive volatility without pegging the rupiah to a particular level.
Click here to learn more about Indonesian regulatory organizations and here for banking sector
regulations.
Major players
PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk has been the country’s largest bank by assets for more than a
decade and held 855.039 trillion rupiah (US$68.85 billion) in total assets in 2014. PT Bank Rakyat
Indonesia (Persero) Tbk was a close second with 801.955 trillion rupiah in assets in 2014.
Ten of the top 15 Indonesian banks reported total assets of more than US$10 billion, and four
held totals of more than US$25 billion. However, none of the country’s banks are among the 100
largest banks in the world.
Lending growth at the top four Indonesian banks slowed to 12.9% year over year in 2014 from
23.2% in 2013, 24.9% in 2012 and 24.5% in 2011. Indonesian banks are expected to boost loans
by 16% to 17% in 2015, helped by an increase in demand for loans to be used for investment
and as working capital, The Jakarta Post reported Jan. 13, citing Muliaman Hadad, chairman of
Indonesia’s Financial Services Authority.
The four banks’ net profit attributable to parent companies jumped to 71.38 trillion rupiah
(US$6.01 billion) in 2014, up 62.33% from the 43.97 trillion rupiah (US$5.01 billion) reported for
2011. Among the four largest banks in the country, Bank Negara Indonesia posted the biggest
gain in earnings, with net income attributable to parent jumping to 10.78 trillion rupiah (US$908
million) in 2014 from 5.82 trillion rupiah (US$664 million) in 2011.
11
0px
130px
230px
330px
430px
540px
660px
2012
2014
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2010
2012
2013
10.78
2011
9.05
4.10
16.49
14.25
11.72
10.82
8.48
24.24
21.34
18.68
15.08
11.47
19.87
18.20
2013
7.05
2011
5.83
2010
15.50
9.22
12.25
Net income (Rp.T)
2014
2012
2014
855.04
2010
2011
2012
2013
404.29
469.90
551.34
626.18
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
381.91
442.99
496.30
552.42
324.42
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2011
2012
2013
248.58
299.06
333.30
386.65
2010
2011
2012
2013
270.65
243.76
2010
129.40
349.11
313.50
258.35
202.63
153.41
494.53
432.93
347.09
278.43
238.39
523.71
463.28
2013
193.83
2011
156.50
2010
380.28
237.25
307.02
Total net loans (Rp.T)
2014
Total assets (Rp.T)
449.77
2010
551.89
635.62
733.10
2011
2012
2013
NIM (%)
4.81
5.01
4.72
2.79
2.61
5.24
13.39
5.31
2.79
15.25
16.13
3.78
7.82
7.97
7.88
3.62
16.97
14.99
18.14
2.79
2.44
NPLs/loans (%)
2.05
2011
2012
2.30
2.32
2.08
2013
2014
2010
2011
14.14
2012
1.63
2013
5.28
3.06
ROAA (%)
5.20
2.22
0.48
0.43
2012
2013
17.91
0.58
2014
NPLs/
loans (%)
2010
5.16
2.29
2.61
2.73
ROAA (%)
Risk-based capital
ratio (%)
16.53
6.73
0.37
2011
1.72
18.72
2014
5.80
17.24
Risk-based
capital ratio (%)
416.57
5.66
3.17
NPLs/loans (%)
2010
NIM (%)
16.03
14.69
13.27
1.78
2014
6.35
5.08
2.84
0.63
NPLs/loans (%)
1.83
5.34
3.13
2.79
Risk-based
capital ratio (%)
13.91
NIM (%)
5.86
4.36
3.78
3.92
16.80
3.18
Risk-based capital ratio (%)
2.72
2010
8.85
ROAA (%)
14.73
2014
NIM (%)
9.30
2.68
ROAA (%)
2.22
14.95
2014
801.96
16.33
14.92
3.62
2011
2.81
2012
2.16
1.96
2013
2014
Financial data is based on publicly available filings.
Financial
data is based
on of
publicly
available
filings.
Net income represents
the portion
net income
attributable
to equity holders of the parent company.
Net
income
represents
the and
portion
netoutstanding,
income attributable
equity
ofnet
the
parent company.
Total net
loans represent
total loans
financeof
leases
including thoseto
held
for sale.holders
The value is
of unearned
discount and loan-loss reserves and does not include interest receivable on loans.
NPL/loans
taken asrepresent
reported by the
company
where
not available,
calculated
as a sum of including
loans classified
as substandard,
and value
loss or represented
by loans classified
as impaired.
Total
netis loans
total
loansor,and
finance
leases
outstanding,
those
held fordoubtful
sale. The
is net of unearned
discount
and loan-loss reserves and does not
Rp.
=
Indonesian
rupiah
include interest receivable on loans.
NPL/loans
is taken as reported by the company or, where not available, calculated as a sum of loans classied as substandard, doubtful and loss or represented by loans
Credit: Cat VanVliet
classified as impaired.
Top 15 Indonesian banks by assets
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Company (ticker)
PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk (BMRI)
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBRI)
PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)
PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBNI)
PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk (BNGA)
PT Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk (BDMN)
PT Bank Permata Tbk (BNLI)
PT Bank Pan Indonesia Tbk (PNBN)
PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk (BBTN)
PT Bank Internasional Indonesia Tbk (BNII)
PT Bank OCBC NISP Tbk (NISP)
PT Bank UOB Indonesia
PT Bank Bukopin Tbk (BBKP)
PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat dan Banten Tbk (BJBR)
PT Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk (BTPN)
Average
Total
assets
(US$B)
68.85
64.57
44.48
33.54
18.77
15.76
14.92
13.90
11.64
11.54
8.30
6.45
6.37
6.11
6.04
22.08
ROAE
(%)
21.81
28.19
23.26
19.79
8.50
8.33
9.82
11.85
9.54
5.50
9.39
7.04
10.98
17.03
16.83
13.86
Loans/
deposits
NPL/total
(%) net loans (%)
82.29
2.30
79.47
1.78
77.55
0.58
86.22
1.96
97.60
3.86
115.98
2.33
88.77
1.74
95.44
1.85
107.39
3.74
102.98
2.17
91.94
1.34
88.29
3.72
83.11
2.77
89.67
4.27
97.26
0.69
92.26
2.34
Tangible equity/
tangible assets
(%)
12.09
12.18
14.06
14.65
12.04
16.29
9.04
13.42
8.44
10.08
14.46
12.59
8.38
9.34
15.77
12.19
List is limited to SNL-covered banks headquartered in Indonesia.
Financial data is for the year ended Dec. 31, 2014.
NA = not available
12
In terms of profitability, Bank Rakyat Indonesia took the crown among the top 15 banks, with an
ROAE of 28.19% and a net interest margin of 7.88% for the 12 months ended Dec. 31, 2014. From
Jan. 1, 2013, through April 1, 2015, the five largest banks generated total returns ranging from
negative 28% to 109%, compared to a 16% gain in the SNL Asia-Pacific Bank Index over the same
period. Bank Rakyat Indonesia and PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk outperformed the
rest, returning 98.47% and 108.98%, respectively.
Market performance of largest Indonesian banks since 2013
(%)
120
PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk (58.10%)
PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (66.47%)
PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk (-28.38%)
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (98.47%)
PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (108.98%)
SNL Asia-Pacific Bank (16.12%)
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
Data current as of April 1, 2015.
SNL Asia-Pacific Bank Index comprises banks headquartered in the Asia-Pacific region and covered by SNL.
Total return data is shown for the shares traded on the Stock Exchange of Indonesia.
13
Islamic banking
Indonesia has the world’s largest Muslim population, but Shariah-based finance made up just
5.5% of the country’s total banking assets in 2013, compared to 20.7% in Malaysia, according to
Ernst & Young. However, the demand for Shariah-compliant banking products has tremendously increased in Indonesia in recent years. Aggregate assets of Islamic banks and Islamic units of
conventional banks have grown by more than 449%, to 272.34 trillion rupiah in December 2014
from 49.6 trillion rupiah in 2008. The shariah loan balance stood at 264.81 trillion rupiah at the
end of February 2015.
The industry, however, is undergoing some major regulatory changes. The OJK in November
2014 issued new banking regulations, including higher capital requirements based on the risk
profiles of Islamic banks and segregation of Islamic units of conventional banks. According to
the new guidelines, Islamic banks with the highest risk profile will be required to have a capital
adequacy ratio of around 14%, compared to the previous requirement of 8%.
Select Malaysian and Indonesian banks by Shariah loans
Net Shariah loans (US$M)
FY'14
FY'13 YOY change (%)
Net
Shariah
loans/
total
loans
FY'14
Net sharia
loans/
Shariah
deposits
FY'14
Company
Country
Malaysia
Malayan Banking Bhd.
Bank Kerjasama Rakyat Malaysia Bhd.
CIMB Group Holdings Bhd.
BIMB Holdings Bhd.
AMMB Holdings Bhd.
Malaysia Building Society Bhd.
Public Bank Bhd.
RHB Capital Bhd.
AFFIN Holdings Bhd.
Malaysia
Malaysia
Malaysia
Malaysia
Malaysia
Malaysia
Malaysia
Malaysia
Malaysia
31,098.0
17,285.2
11,603.1
8,437.8
7,485.8
7,419.8
7,268.8
7,227.8
2,047.3
99,873.4
26,681.5
17,494.8
11,556.0
7,248.0
7,100.7
7,636.4
6,992.6
5,636.9
1,846.7
92,193.6
16.55
-1.20
0.41
16.41
5.42
-2.84
3.95
28.22
10.86
8.33
26.97
100.00
15.74
100.00
83.66
10.46
17.98
8.87
3.10
108.82
88.27
91.25
72.58
96.15
123.31
82.77
103.77
72.58
Indonesia
Indonesia
Indonesia
Indonesia
Indonesia
Indonesia
Indonesia
Indonesia
Indonesia
Indonesia
Indonesia
Indonesia
Indonesia
3,740.7
1,233.8
1,211.1
931.7
759.6
346.3
298.8
198.1
196.5
170.0
137.2
129.8
83.9
9,437.2
3,995.2
1,132.9
924.5
984.9
653.6
290.3
269.8
109.4
151.3
115.6
81.0
114.8
69.8
8,893.2
-6.37
8.90
30.99
-5.41
16.21
19.29
10.76
80.99
29.83
47.14
69.34
13.10
20.16
6.12
17.69
5.56
8.81
8.25
8.22
6.83
4.72
1.81
0.60
11.98
2.41
8.50
28.04
87.77
91.69
92.94
96.94
107.84
82.12
92.89
112.12
1,344.54
93.89
119.01
133.89
92.36
Indonesia
PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk
PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk
PT Bank Permata Tbk
PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk
PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat dan Banten Tbk
PT Bank Bukopin Tbk
PT Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk
PT Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk
PT Bank Central Asia Tbk
PT Bank Sinarmas Tbk
PT Bank OCBC NISP Tbk
PT Bank Victoria International Tbk
Total
Total
List is limited to SNL-covered banks headquartered in Indonesia.
Financial data is for the year ended Dec. 31, 2014.
NA = not available
14
An analysis of SNL-covered banks in the region shows that among Indonesian banks, Bank Mandiri had the largest absolute Shariah loans, equal to US$3.74 billion in 2014. This represented
nearly 18% of the bank’s overall loans portfolio. By comparison, some Malaysian banks have
much larger Shariah loan portfolio. Malayan Banking Bhd. held nearly US$31 billion in total outstanding Shariah loans in 2014, accounting for almost 27% of its overall loans.
Indonesia has the world’s largest Muslim population, but Shariah-based finance made up just
5.5% of the country’s total banking assets in 2013, compared to 20.7% in Malaysia, according to
Ernst & Young.
Growth of Islamic banking industry in Indonesia since 2008
Number of offices
3,000
250
2,500
200
2,000
150
1,500
100
1,000
50
0
Number of offices
Aggregate assets (Rp. trillion)
Aggregate assets (Rp. trillion)
300
500
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015*
0
Data represents aggregate values of assets held by Islamic banks, including Islamic units of commercial banks.
* FY’15 data is as of February 2015.
Source: Bank Indonesia
15
Largest branch networks
Largest
branch networks in Indonesia
in Indonesia
2012
442.99
10.78
9.05
7.05
5.83
4.10
16.49
14.25
496.30
552.42
299.06
333.30
386.65
270.65
243.76
193.83
156.50
129.40
In the Jakarta region, Bank Mandiri has the largest
presence with 490 depository branches, followed by
Bank Negara Indonesia with 360 branches and PT
Bank Central Asia Tbk with 353 branches. Combined
with
PT Bank CIMB
2013 Bank
2014 Rakyat
2010 Indonesia’s
2011
2012 296
2013and
2014
Niaga Tbk’s 182, the five banks operate almost half
the SNL-covered branches in the metropolitan area.
349.11
258.35
2012
Total population: 253.3 million
Among Indonesian banks, Bank Mandiri operates the
largest domestic branch network with 2,238 depository outlets, according to SNL data. Bank Rakyat Indonesia
was No.
2 with
1,661
branches
in Indonesia.
2013
2014
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
313.50
11.72
Bank branching
416.57
It is becoming harder for foreign banks to enter the
reported
2012 country.
2013
2014Recently,
2010 local
2011 media
2012
2013
2014 that the OJK
5.86
halted the
entry
5.80 the country
6.35
NIMof
(%)Malaysian banks into
5.28
5.66
despite3.17an agreement signed by Malaysia’s central
3.06
5.20and
5.16the OJK on 2.73
bank,
Bank Indonesia
Dec. 31, 2014.
5.08
2.61
2.84
17.24
Nelson
Tampubulon,
head
of
the
OJK’s
banking
super%)
ROAA (%)
2.29
16.03
2.22
14.69
vision department,
said the ban will be in effect until
1.72
Risk-based
Risk-based capital
17.91
18.72
three
Indonesian
banks
open
in Malaysia.
He noted
capital
ratio
(%)
ratio
(%)
16.53
16.33
6.73
that three Malaysian banks already
operate in Indo14.92
NPLs/loans (%)
0.58 that the agreement
3.62
nesia
and
is
based
on reciprocal
NPLs/
0.43
2.81
2.16
0.37
loans (%)
1.96
principles.
2012
2013
248.58
2014
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Name Total domestic branches
Branches per million citizens
PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk 2,238
8.84
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia
(Persero) Tbk 1,661
6.56
PT Bank Negara Indonesia
(Persero) Tbk 1,489
5.88
PT Bank Tabungan Pensiunan 1,272
5.02
PT Bank Central Asia Tbk 1,129
4.46
PT Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk 883
3.49
Network
information
built
on the
basis
of individual
Network
information
built
on the
basis
of individual
branch
branch disclosure
bankExcludes
websites.units
Excludes
unitsas
disclosure
from bank from
websites.
classified
classified as non-depositories
by SNL.atData
shown entity
at
non-depositories
by SNL. Data is shown
the is
top-level
theand
topitlevel
entity
andnetwork
it includes
branch
level
includes
thelevel
branch
of all
majority-owned
network of
subsidiaries
inall
themajority
region. owned subsidiaries in the
region.
Source:
SNL Financial
Credit: Cat VanVliet
n-loss reserves and does not include interest receivable on loans.
or represented by loans classified as impaired.
16
Indonesian banks with largest branch networks in Jakarta
Legend title
PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk (490)
PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (360)
PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (353)
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (296)
CIMB Group Holdings Bhd. (182)
Data is limited to SNL-covered branches in Jakarta, Barat, Pusat, Selatan,Timur and Utara.
Network information built on the basis of individual branch disclosure from bank websites.
Excludes units classified as non-depositories by SNL.
Data is shown at the top-level entity level and it includes branch network of all majority-owned subsidiaries in the region.
Map credit: Alip Artates
17
Mergers & acquisitions
Indonesian banks have been targets in 20 bank merger deals since Jan. 1, 2008. The latest deal
was Tokyo-based Sumitomo Corp.’s purchase of a 17.50% stake in Jakarta-based PT Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk for US$463 million on Feb.18, 2015.
Earlier, another Japanese company, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. acquired stakes in
Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional on two other occasions, picking up a 15.74% stake in March
2014 for US$525 million and a 24.26% stake in May 2013 for US$900 million. Sumitomo Mitsui
Financial Group currently own 40% of the Indonesian bank.
The Jakarta Post reported that several foreign financial institutions, mostly from Asian countries
such as Japan and South Korea have shown interest in midsize Indonesian bank, Irwan Lubis,
deputy commissioner for banking supervision at the OJK, noted that Middle Eastern firms are
keen on buying local lenders in the Shariah banking business.
Click here for general M&A rules in the country.
Recent M&A transactions in Indonesia’s banking sector
Announced since Jan. 1, 2008
Target
Buyer
PT Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk Sumitomo Corp.
Buyer
country
Japan
Anncmnt
date
18-Feb-15
Equity
stake
Deal
Completion acquired
value
date
(%) (US$M)
18-Feb-15
17.50 463.12
PT Bank Mayapada Internasional Tbk
Cathay Financial Holding Co. Ltd.
Taiwan
5-Jan-15
Pending
PT Bank Woori Indonesia
PT Bank Himpunan Saudara 1906 Tbk
Indonesia
22-Sep-14
30-Dec-14
100.00
40.00
281.43
0.00
PT Bank Mutiara Tbk
J Trust Co. Ltd.
12-Sep-14
20-Nov-14
99.00
361.62
PT Bank Panin Syariah
Dubai Islamic Bank (PJSC)
19-May-14
22-May-14
24.90
21.88
PT Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc.
Japan
United Arab
Emirates
Japan
14-Mar-14
14-Mar-14
15.74
524.83
PT Bank Bukopin Tbk
Bosowa Corp.
Indonesia
24-Feb-14
Pending
11.40
NA
PT Bank ICB Bumiputera Tbk
PT MNC Investama Tbk
Indonesia
27-Jan-14
27-Jan-14
24.00
17.30
J Trust Co. Ltd.
Japan
24-Dec-13
27-Dec-13
10.00
44.91
PT Bank Internasional Indonesia Tbk
UBS AG
Switzerland
22-Nov-13
22-Nov-13
9.31
NA
PT Bank SBI Indonesia
State Bank of India
India
2-Sep-13
2-Sep-13
23.00
NA
PT Bank Sahabat Purba Danarta
PT Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk Indonesia
26-Jun-13
4-Feb-14
70.00
NA
UBS AG
Switzerland
19-Jun-13
19-Jun-13
9.00
181.55
PT Bank Bukopin Tbk
PT Bosowa Corporindo
Indonesia
13-Jun-13
13-Jun-13
14.00
118.89
PT Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc.
Japan
8-May-13
10-May-13
24.26
900.00
PT. Bank Metro Express
Shinhan Financial Group Co. Ltd.
South Korea
30-Apr-13
Pending
40.00
30.00
PT. Bank Himpunan Saudara 1906 Tbk
Woori Bank
South Korea
12-Jun-12
28-Jan-14
33.00
58.31
PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk
CIMB Group Holdings Berhad
Malaysia
14-May-10
19-Aug-10
19.67
607.13
PT Bank Dipo International
PT Sampoerna Strategic
Indonesia
17-Feb-10
9-May-11
85.00
NA
Malayan Banking Bhd.
Malaysia
7-Oct-08
10-Oct-08
16.26
358.63
PT Bank UOB Buana Tbk
United Overseas Bank Ltd.
Singapore
18-Jun-08
21-Oct-08
37.90
420.48
Limited to SNL-covered deals where the target was a bank headquartered in Indonesia. Excludes branch or asset deals.
Deal metrics shown as of announcement for pending deals and as of completion for completed deals.
NA = not available
18
Capital markets
The country’s regulators have declared 2015
as the “Year of Shariah Capital Market.” The
regulator said it will roll out three programs
aimed at accelerating the development of the
Shariah capital market. The three programs
are centered around the reinforcement of current regulations, the development of a fiveyear roadmap and increased awareness.
SNL data shows that there have been 16 common stock offerings by Indonesian banks since
2013, 10 of which were in 2013, five in 2014
and one in early 2015.
In 2015, PT Bank of India Indonesia Tbk offered
common stock amounting to US$38.5 million.
The 2013 offering by PT Bank OCBC NISP Tbk
was the largest among the 16 offerings, with
gross proceeds of US$299.6 million.
Recent common stock offerings by Indonesian banks
Completed since Jan. 1, 2008
Issuer
PT Bank of India Indonesia Tbk
PT Bank MNC Internasional Tbk
PT Bank QNB Indonesia Tbk
PT Bank Permata Tbk
PT Bank Bukopin Tbk
PT Bank Mutiara Tbk
PT Bank Windu Kentjana International Tbk
PT Bank OCBC NISP Tbk
PT Bank Capital Indonesia Tbk
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Agroniaga Tbk
PT Bank QNB Indonesia Tbk
PT Bank Bukopin Tbk
PT Bank Artha Graha Internasional Tbk
Total
Completion
date
6-Jan-15
24-Dec-14
25-Aug-14
20-Jun-14
16-Jan-14
9-Jan-14
23-Dec-13
11-Dec-13
21-Nov-13
24-Oct-13
22-Oct-13
19-Jul-13
18-Jul-13
19-Jun-13
13-Jun-13
25-Jan-13
Gross
amount
offered
(US$M)
38.5
120.4
68.6
54.1
123.8
59.8
102.5
17.0
299.6
27.0
16.7
148.6
44.6
65.5
117.9
51.9
1,356.4
Includes offerings by a publicly traded and SNL-covered parent company or
subsidiary classified as a bank or thrift. Excludes offering with gross proceeds
less than 1 million U.S. dollars.
Gross amount offered includes the exercised overallotments.
Questions? SNLinfo@snl.com
+44 20 7398 0873 (EMEA)
+852 5808 1882 (Asia-Pacific) +1.866.296.3743 (Americas)
19

Indonesia Banking Report

Transcription

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