Children`s Peer Relationships: Longitudinal Prediction of
Transcription
Children`s Peer Relationships: Longitudinal Prediction of
Children's Peer Relationships: Longitudinal Prediction of Internalizing and Externalizing Problems from Middle to Late Childhood Shelley Hymel, Kenneth H. Rubin, Lynda Rowden, and Lucy LeMare University of Waterloo HYMEL, SHELLEY; RUBIN, KENNETH H.; ROWDEN, LYNDA; AND LEMARE, LUCY. Children's Peer Relationships: Longitudinal Prediction of Internalizing and Externalizing Problems from Middle to Late Childhood. CHILD DEVELOPMENT, 1990,61,2004-2021. In this longitudinal study, the predictive relations between social difficulties in early childhood (grade 2) and subsequent internalizing as well as externalizing problems in middle childhood (grade 5) were examined. Of particular interest was whether early indices of social isolation would predict intemahzing problems 3 years later. A longitudinal sample of 87 children were assessed in both grades 2 and 5 on a variety of measures, including sociometric ratings, peer assessments of aggression and isolation, and self-appraisals of social competence. In the second grade, observations of isolated and aggressive behavior were made, as well, and teacher ratings of internalizing and externalizing difficulties were obtained. In the fifth grade, teacher ratings of shy-anxious and acting-out behavior and self-reports of loneliness and self-esteem were collected. Consistent with previous research, results demonstrated predictive links between early peer rejection (unpopularity) and aggression and subsequent externalizing difficulties. Internalizing problems in middle childhood were significantly related to early social difficulties, particularly those of an internalizing sort, including poor peer acceptance, social isolation, and perceptions of social incompetence. Social isolation, then, may indeed be a risk factor in early development. Although previous research has indicated that early peer difficulties are predictive of later maladjustment (see Kohlberg, La Crosse, & Ricks, 1972; Parker & Asher, 1987, for reviews), researchers have tended to emphasize the relations between early peer rejection and/or aggression and subsequent extemalizing outcomes such as aggression, hostility, acting-out behavior, or delinquency. Virtually no data exist concerning the possibility that early social difficulties may also predict internalizing problems. According to Achenbach (1982; Achenbach & Edelbrock, 1981), self-related difficulties such as fearfulness, anxiety, and social withdrawal may be labeled "internalizing problems." It seems entirely plausible that a child who is rejected by peers may come, eventually, to realize that he or she is disliked or become increasingly aware of his or her poor peer status. Such a realization may lead to feelings of loneliness (Asher, Hymel, & Renshaw, 1984; Asher, Parkhurst, Hymel, & Williams, 1990), depression (Strauss, Forehand, Frame, & Smith, 1984; Vosk, Forehand, Parker, & Richard, 1982), and to negative self-perceptioiis of social competence and self-esteem (Hymel, 1983), all known concurrent correlates of peer rejection and unpopularity (see Rubin & Lollis, 1988, for an extended discussion of the conceptual link between rejection and internalizing disorders). The purpose of the present study, then, was to examine, prospectively, the association between early social difficulties and indices of both externalizing and internalizing problems in later childhood, Of particular interest was whether measures of overall sociometric acceptance or more specific indices of internalizing or exter- Portions of this research were presented at the biennial meeting of the Society for Research in Child Development, April 1987, Baltimore, MD, and at the first annual meeting of the Society for Research in Child and Adolescent Psychopathology, February 1989, Miami, FL. The research reported herein was supported by a grant to authors Rubin and Hymel fi-om Health and Welfare Canada and by a Killam Research Fellowship to author Rubin from the Canada Council. We are grateful to the teachers and children in the Waterloo County School Board for their cooperation in this project. We also thank Anne Emptage and Laurie Addis who coordinated data gathering aspects of this study. Requests for reprints should be addressed to either author Hymel or Rubin, Department of Psychology, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, N2L 3G1, Canada. [Child Development, 1990, 61, 2004-2021. © 1990 by the Society for Research in Child Development, Inc. All rights reserved. 0009-3920/90/6106-0029$01.00] Hymel et al. nalizing problems in early childhood would prove to be stronger predictors of later difficulties. While previous studies have emphasized early indicators of social problems such as sociometric status and aggression, far less attention has been given to early social withdrawal or social isolation as a risk factor in development. Despite the fact that withdrawn behavior is often viewed by parents, practitioners, and clinicians as an index of peer difficulty (e.g.. Mills & Rubin, 1990) and that several psychologists have attempted to develop intervention strategies aimed at reducing withdrawal and increasing peer interaction (e.g., Wanlass & Prinz, 1982), there has not been clear evidence that early social withdrawal is predictive of later meiladjustment (Kohlberg et al., 1972; Parker & Asher, 1987). In fact, some have argued that social withdrawal in childhood is not predictive of negative outcomes (e.g., Michael, Morris, & Soroker, 1957; Robins, 1966). Parker and Asher (1987), however, suggest that conclusions concerning the predictive correlates of early withdrawal may be "premature" (p. 377), given that studies to date have almost always utilized clinical rather than normal samples and follow-back or retrospective rather than prospective research designs. In addition, as we have argued elsewhere (Rubin, Hymel, & Mills, 1989), in most studies examining the longterm correlates of social withdrawal, externalizing rather than internalizing outcomes have been considered, despite the fact that social withdrawal is usually considered a "symptom" or behavioral reflection of internalizing difficulties (Achenbach & Edelbrock, 1981; Altmann & Gotlib, in press). Accordingly, we have begun to examine the predictive outcomes associated with esirly social withdrawal, especially those of an internalizing nature. In earlier reports (Rubin, Hymel, & Mills, 1989; Rubin & Mills, 1988), we found that observed social withdrawal in kindergarten, as well as peer-assessed social withdrawal and negative self-perceptions in the second grade, were predictive of internalizing difficulties in the fourth and fifth grades. These data, taken from the original cohort of an ongoing longitudinal project, were limited, however, in terms of sample size, making it difficult to establish the generality of the links between early social withdrawal and later internalizing outcomes. Moreover, given the limitations of sample size, it was impossible to evaluate the predictive correlates of both internalizing as well as externalizing outcomes within a single sam- 2005 ple. Finally, the predictive associations between more general indices of peer acceptance or popularity were not examined in earlier reports. The present study, then, is an elaboration of the earlier reports, with data from a second cohort added to that of the original one. With the resulting increase in sample size, we were able to compare results across cohorts, as well as to examine the predictive correlates of both externalizing and internalizing outcomes from various indices of early social difficulties, including aggression as well as withdrawal, self-perceptions, and early peer acceptance or popularity. On the basis of previous work (Parker & Asher, 1987; Rubin, LeMare, & Lollis, 1990), we hypothesized that aggressive behavior in early childhood would be more predictive of later externalizing than internalizing outcomes, whereas social withdrawal and its conceptually related concomitants (e.g., poor selfconcept) would be more predictive of subsequent internalizing problems. Furthermore, lack of peer acceptance was hypothesized to predict both internalizing and externalizing difficulties. Method Subjects Our data were taken from the Waterloo Longitudinal Project, an investigation begun in 1980 to examine the stability and predictive outcomes associated with social withdrawal during childhood. In the present study, we consider data collected on a sample of second-grade children who were followed up in the fifth grade, 3 years later. In each year, all participants were enrolled in one of 10 classrooms from three public schools in a southwestern Ontario community of approximately 215,000 people. Data for the first two schools (Cohort 1) were collected 2 years prior to data for the last school (Cohort 2). Subjects were primarily Caucasian and middle class, and all had received parental permission for participation in the study in both grades 2 and 5. In grade 2, the sample consisted of 155 children (39 males, 49 females from Cohort 1; 34 males, 33 females from Cohort 2), with a mean age of 7.7 years (SD = 5 months). Three years later, in grade 5, 87 of these children (22 males, 29 females from Cohort 1; 18 males, 18 females from Cohort 2; mean age = 10.6 years, SD = 4 months) again participated in the project, constituting 56% of the possible longitudinal sample. Cenerally, children dropped out of the study because they had moved to a new school. 2006 Child Development Procedure In grade 2, children completed peer assessments of sociometric acceptance and social behavior as well as a domain-specific selfconcept measure. These measures were individually administered by female research assistants in a laboratory trailer situated on the school grounds. The children were also observed, in quartets, in a series of four, 15min play sessions with same-age, same-sex peers in a laboratory playroom. Finally, teachers were asked to complete a behavioral rating scale for each child. In grade 5, the same peer assessment measures of social behavior were group administered, in regular classroom settings, and similar but not identical measures of sociometric acceptance and domain-specific self-concept, as well as a self-report measure of loneliness, were given. Teachers were also asked to complete a behavioral rating scale on each child, although not the same scale as was used in grade 2. Each measure is described below. All testing was conducted in the winter of the school year, allowing sufficient time for the children to be familiar with one another prior to assessment. In both grades and for both cohorts, all testing sessions were conducted more or less simultaneously (within 3-4 days for grade 2, with observational data collection completed in the subsequent 3-4 weeks; within 1 or 2 weeks for grade 5). Children were assured of the confidentiality of their individual responses at the time of testing. Measures Sociometric ratings.—A sociometric rating scale of peer acceptance (popularity) was used in both grades 2 and 5. Although rating scale sociometric measures, in contrast to nomination measures, do not permit distinctions to be made between rejected and neglected children (see Hymel & Rubin, 1985, for a review), they were selected as the measure of choice in the present study for two reasons. First, rating scale sociometric measures provide information on the degree to vi^hich all children are liked or disliked by each of their classmates. Second, rating scale measures have been shown to be more reliable and stable indices of acceptance or popularity, particularly during the earlier years of childhood (e.g., Asher, Singleton, Tinsley, & Hymel, 1979). Moreover, previous studies have shown that children who receive low or high sociometric rating scores are identified as rejected and popular, respectively, on traditional nomination measures (Rubin, Hymel, LeMare, & Rowden, 1989) and that it is the rejected group that appears to be most "at risk" for adjustment difficulties (see Asher & Coie, 1990; Hymel & Rubin, 1985; Schneider, Rubin, & Ledingham, 1985). In grade 2, children were asked to rate each classmate on a 3-point scale according to how much they "liked to play with" each classmate at school. In grade 5, the rating scale was extended to 5 points, and children rated how well they "liked to be with" each classmate. In both grades, the average rating received from all classmates was computed as an index of overall popularity or acceptability by peers.'^ Average ratings were then standardized within each sex and class to permit comparisons of children across classes that differed in size and gender composition as well as rating scale format. Standardized average ratings thus provided an index of overall acceptability by peers, with higher scores indicative of greater acceptance or popularity. Peer assessments of social behavior.— Peer perceptions of the social behavior that typified each child were assessed using the Revised Class Play (Masten, Morison, & Pelligrini, 1985). Children were requested to nominate classmates who would best fit each of 30 behavioral descriptors. Subsequendy, nominations received from all classmates were used to compute each of three factor scores for each child following procedures outlined by Masten et al. (1985): sociabilityleadership, aggression-disruption, and sensitivity-isolation, the latter two scores being of interest in the present research. For each summary score, the number of nominations received by each child was standardized within class and gender groups to permit appropriate comparisons. Higher scores were indicative of stronger peer perceptions of the identified behavior in each case. ^ Although our analyses were based on peer assessments made by all classmates (both same sex and opposite sex), similar analyses were conducted using peer nominations and ratings from samesex peers only. A similar but slightly weaker pattern of results was obtained when same-sex rather than both-sex ratings emd nominations were used. The slight improvenient in prediction with bothsex scores may have been a result of increased reliability of measures when derived from a larger number of peers or from the unique contribution of opposite-sex peer perceptions. Future research needs to address this issue. Hymel et al. Self-perceptions.—In order to assess children's self-concepts, a domain-specific self-report measure was administered in each year. In grade 2, children were individually administered Harter's (1982) Perceived Competence Scale, which tapped three domains of competence: cognitive, social, and physical. A fourth category, general self-worth, was also measured but not considered in the present study since Harter (1982, 1983; Harter & Pike, 1984) hais argued that general self-worth is not adequately assessed by this self-report measure prior to grade 3. In grade 5, a revised version of the same scale, the Self-Perception Profile for Children (Harter, 1985), was group administered. The revised scale tapped children's perceptions of their own competencies in five different domains: cognitive, physical, social, appearance, and behavioral conduct. A sixth category was general self-worth. Previous research has demonstrated the reliability and validity of each of these measures (Harter, 1982,1985). Of particular interest in the present instance were children's perceptions of their own competence in the social domain as well as their general self-worth. Accordingly, although the scale was administered in its entirety, only scores for perceived social competence (grades 2 and 5) and general self-worth (grade 5 only) were considered in the data analysis. Specifically, children's responses to the items measuring perceived social competence and general self-worth on each of the two scales were averaged, following procedures described by Harter (1982, 1985). These scores resulted in separate indices of perceived social competence and general self-worth, with higher scores indicative of more positive self-regard in each case. Loneliness and social dissatisfaction.— In grade 5, children's feelings of loneliness and social dissatisfaction were assessed using a self-report measure developed by Asher et al. (1984). Previous research using this scale has demonstrated that children's responses are fairly stable over time (Hymel & Franke, 1985) and internally consistent (Asher et al., 1984). Following procedures outlined by Asher et al. (1984), children's responses to the 16 self-statements included in this scale were summed; higher scores were indicative of greater feelings of loneliness and social dissatisfaction. Behavioral observations.—Each grade 2 participant was invited to play with three same-sex age-mates for four 15-min free-play sessions in a laboratory playroom. The child's playmates differed in each of the four sessions, thus allowing observations to be made 2007 with 12 different playmates, two of whom (in each quartet) were students from different classrooms. During each play session, the children were observed,firombehind one-way mirrors, following the procedures described in detail by Rubin (1982, 1986). Each child was observed for 42 10-sec time samples during each session. Thus, a total of 28 min of data (or 168 time samples) were available for each child. Behaviors were coded on a predetermined checklist that included the social participation categories of solitary, parallel, and group activity in addition to aggression (both verbal and nonverbal) and conversations with peers. Embedded within the three major social participation categories of solitary, parallel, and group play were the cognitive play categories described originally by Smilansky (1968); these categories included sensorimotorfunctional play, construction, dramatic play, and games-with-rules. Added to this cognitive play taxonomy was exploratory activity. Thus, as in Rubin (1982), any cognitive play category was coded, as it occurred, within each of the three social participation categories (e.g., solitary-constructive play; groupdramatic play). Observers were trained to use the behavioral taxonomy prior to data collection by employing videotapes of free-play as well as naturalistic observations during a laboratory school play period. During training, reliability was assessed by pairing each observer with the trainer for several hours of observation time, at the end of which reliability estimates were obtained for a 15—20-min observation period for each observer. The percentage of agreement (i.e., number of agreements/agreements plus disagreements) exceeded 85% for each behavioral category at this time. A second 15-20-min reliability check was conducted immediately prior to onset of actual data collection for each observer, and again, reliability exceeded 85% for each behavioral category. During actual data collection (conducted in a laboratory trailer), time and space constraints (i.e., the need to accommodate one observer for each of the four child participants during each play period) prohibited collection of reliability data throughout the observation sessions. Reliability spot cheeks were conducted in the latter quarter of data collection, however, constituting approximately 8% to 10% of all observational data. As assessed during these spot checks, reliability exceeded 85% for all behavioral categories. 2008 Child Development TABLE 1 OVERVIEW OF MEASURES N Grade 2: Peer assessments (standardized): Popularity (sociometric ratings from all peers) Social behavior (Masten et al., 1985): Isolation Aggression Teacher assessments (Moller & Rubin, 1988): Internalizing problems Externalizing problems Self-assessments: Social competence (Harter, 1982) Observational assessment: Isolated play Aggression Grade 5: Peer assessments (standardized): Popularity (sociometric ratings from all peers) Social behavior (Masten et al., 1985): Isolation Aggression Teacher assessments (Hightovfer et al., 1986): Shy-anxious behavior (standardized) Acting-out behavior (standardized) Self-assessments: Social competence (Harter, 1985) General self-worth (Harter, 1985) Loneliness (Asher et al., 1984) Given the focus of the present report, two categories of observed behavior were considered particularly relevant: (1) isolated play— the frequency with which children, when observed in a situation that pulled for social interaction, engaged in solitary, unoccupied, or onlooker activity; and (2) aggression—the frequency of all group interchanges that could be characterized as hostile and agonistic. Teacher ratings.—In grade 2, teachers were asked to complete the Preschool Behavior Questionnaire (PBQ, Behar & Stringfield, 1974), a measure designed to identify socioemotional problems in young children. Recent research has demonstrated that this 30-item scale yields two reliable factors in the elementary school years (Moller & Rubin, 1988). The first factor, externalizing, consists of items descriptive of hostile-aggressive and impulsive-distractible behaviors; the second factor, internalizing, consists of items descriptive of fearfulness, anxiety, and social solitude. Each child received a total score for those items that loaded on each of the two factors, with higher scores indicative of greater difficulties in each case. M SD Range 87 .08 .99 - 2 . 7 9 - 1.85 86 86 -.20 -.14 .88 .86 - 1 . 4 1 - 2.59 - 1 . 4 6 - 2.41 87 87 7.14 12.86 1.74 2.95 5.00-14.00 11.00-28.00 86 3.21 .64 1.86- 4.00 85 85 37.53 1.05 17.56 2.10 3.00-83.00 .00-10.00 85 .10 .94 - 2 . 5 5 - 1.98 87 87 -.20 .01 .90 .95 - 1 . 6 9 - 3.16 - 1 . 3 0 - 2.80 79 77 -.05 -.06 .94 .99 - 1 . 4 6 - 2.61 - 1 . 1 4 - 3.03 82 82 85 3.11 3.31 30.40 .65 .56 10.06 1.00- 4.00 1.33- 4.00 16.00-72.00 In grade 5, teachers were asked to complete the Teacher-Child Rating Scale (T-CRS, Hightower et al., 1986), a measure of socioemotional development developed for use with elementary school age children. Previous research (Hightower et al., 1986) has demonstrated the reliability and validity of this scale and has identified six distinct factors tapped by it: acting out, shy-anxious behavior, learning problems, fmstration tolerance, assertive social skills, and task orientation. Of particulair interest in this instance are teacher evaluations of children's social problems, as reflected in two of these six factors: shyanxious and acting-out behavior. Indeed, these two factors are described by Hightower et al. (1986) as most similar to other broadband dimensions such as internalizing versus externalizing difficulties, as defined by Achenbach and Edelbrock (1981). Accordingly, teacher assessments of both shyanxious and acting-out behavior were considered in present analyses, with higher scores indicative of greater difficulties in each case. An overview of all measures considered at each grade level is presented in Table 1, Hymel et al. 2009 TABLE 2 GOMPARISON OF LONGITUDINAL AND NONLONGITUDINAL SUBJEGTS ON S E C O N D - G R A D E VARIABLES LONGITUDINAL SUBJEGTS GRADE 2 VARIABLES Peer assessments (standardized): Popularity Isolated behavior* Aggressive behavior Teacher assessments: Internalizing problems Externalizing problems Observed play: Isolated play Aggressive play Self-report assessments: Perceived social competence* M SD NONLONGITUDINAL SUBJEGTS N M SD N .08 -.02 -.14 (.99) (.88) (.86) 87 86 86 -.02 .11 .10 (.87) (.96) (.94) 68 66 66 7.14 12.86 (1.74) (2.95) 87 85 7.56 1.46 (2.33) (5.73) 68 67 37.53 1.05 (17.56) (2.10) 85 85 32.46 1.46 (15.91) (5.73) 67 67 3.21 (.64) 86 2.91 (.84) 65 *p< .05. along with means, standard deviations, and ranges of scores for the entire sample. Results and Discussion Given that the same procedures and methods were utilized across the two cohorts and that preliminary analyses showed similar results across cohorts, data from the two cohorts were combined. StatisticeJly significant discrepancies in results between cohorts, when analyzed separately, are noted when relevant In all analyses reported herein, alpha was set at the .05 level of significance, and two-tailed tests of significance were used. Preliminary Analyses Given the fact that 44% of the initial grade 2 sample was not available for followup in grade 5, preliminary analyses were conducted to examine the representativeness of the continuing longitudinal sample. A series of t tests was conducted, comparing secondgrade, longitudinal participants (IV = 87, subjects for whom data were available in both grades 2 and 5) with second-grade, nonlongitudinal subjects (N = 68, grade mates who participated only in initial testing). Results of these analyses are presented in Table 2. As can be seen, few significant differences were observed between longitudinal and nonlongitudinal subsamples. Exceptions: the nonlongitudinal subjects were viewed by secondgrade peers as more isolated in their social behavior, t(185) = 2.10, p < .05, and viewed themselves as less socially competent, t(149) = 2.46, p < .02, relative to classmates continuing in the sample. Thus, the longitudinal sample could be characterized as comparable to their nonlongitudinal grade mates except for peer-assessed isolation and self-perceived social competence. Given that the children who dropped out of the study between grades 2 and 5 were more socially withdrawn and more inclined to view themselves in a negative light than the ones remaining, one might expect these latter two measures to be restricted in range. As such, support for the hypothesized relations between social withdrawal, negative self-perceptions of social competence, and indices of later internalizing problems would have to be exceptionally strong to counter the effects of selective attrition. Concurrent Correlations Second-grade concurrent relations.— First considered were the intercorrelations among measures obtained in grades 2 and 5 separately (i.e., the concurrent correlations).^ Results are presented in Table 3 for the second-grade data set. As can be seen, the correlations revealed a pattern which was, by and large, consistent with results of previous research. Moreover, the pattern of interrelations observed was similar in each cohort, when analyzed separately, with few exceptions (as noted below). Popularity was negatively related to both aggressive behavior as judged by peers and externalizing difficulties as judged by ^ Similar patterns of relations were obtained for males and females in all correlational analyses; only results for the entire sample are presented here. C5 O be o< I o u O O O (SI CO T-H .-H "g.2 qq o •^ I I z i n CO I I I I oo r-l Hymel etal. teachers. This association between peer rejection and aggressive behavior has been well established in the literature (see Asher & Coie, 1990; Hymel & Rubin, 1985, for reviews). It is interesting to note, however, that popularity was also negatively correlated with peer perceptions of sensitive-isolated behavior. Finally, popularity was positively related to children's self-perceptions of social competence. Of particular interest in examining the concurrent relations described in Table 3 is the degree of correspondence observed across various measures of aggression/externalizing behaviors or isolation/internalizing behaviors. With regard to externalizing behaviors, correspondence across measures was observed, although the magnitude of the correlations was not large. Peer-assessed aggressive behavior was significantly related to teacher-rated externalizing behavior. As well, teacher-rated externalizing behavior and observed aggressive play were also significantly related, but this association was significantly greater in Cohort 1, r(48) = .48, p < .001, than in Cohort 2, r(33) = .03, N.S. In general, though, the various indices of externalizing/aggressive behavior were related to one another. In contrast, the various indices of internalizing/isolation behavior were virtually unrelated: peer-assessed sensitivity-isolation, teacher-rated internalizing behavior, and observed isolated play were not significantly correlated. The only exception to this pattern was a significant relation between peerassessed isolation and teacher-rated internalizing problems, which was significant for children in Cohort 1, r(48) = .37, p < .01, but not Cohort 2, r(34) = .03, N.S., nor in the combined sample, r(84) = .16, p < .10. Previously, Ledingham, Younger, Schwartzman, and Bergeron (1982) also examined the associations among teacher and peer assessments of social withdrawal and aggression, reporting that the correlation between teacher and peer aggression measures was higher than that between indices of withdrawal. Nevertheless, Ledingham et al. found significant associations between teacher and peer assessments of withdrawal firom as early as the first grade. It is likely that this discrepancy between our data and those of Ledingham et al. derived firomi the latter's use of the same instrument (the Pupil Evaluation Inventory) by teachers and peers to assess aggression and withdrav^al in children; we used different measures with teachers and peers. Of additional interest is the degree of overlap between indices of aggression/ 2011 externalizing behaviors and indices of isolation/internalizing behaviors, given previous evidence (e.g., Moskowitz, Schwartzman, & Ledingham, 1985) that aggression and isolation may represent a co-morbidity problem for some children. In the present sample, the correlations between various indices of internalizing (isolation) and externalizing (aggression) problems were all nonsignificant, regardless of the source of information considered (teachers, peers, observers). Finally, the concurrent relations between second graders' perceptions of social competence and various indices of social difficulty showed that self-reports of social competence were positively related to popularity and negatively related to peer perceptions of social isolation. In contrast, the relation between peer-assessed aggression and selfperceptions of social competence was not significant. This pattern suggests that withdrawal is more reflective of internalized negative self-regard than is aggression. Fifth-grade concurrent relations.—Concurrent correlations among measures obtained in grade 5 are presented in Table 4. Again, the pattern of results obtained was similar across cohorts and consistent with previous results. Popularity, in grade 5, was negatively related to peer perceptions of both aggressive and isolated behavior as well as to teacher perceptions of shy-anxious and acting-out behavior. Also, popularity was positively rekted to self-reported social competence and negatively related to selfreported loneliness. The relations obtained between popularity and social behavior as well as self-perceptions were similar in both cohorts, when evaluated separately. As with the second-grade data, the correspondence between various indices (teacher vs. peer) of aggressive and isolated behavior was of particular interest. From Table 4, it can be seen that teacher-rated acting-out behavior and peer-assessed aggressive behavior were significantly interrelated. Thus, as was the case in grade 2, there was some correspondence across indices of aggression or externalizing (acting-out) behaviors. In contrast, the relations observed across indices of isolation/shy-anxious behavior in grade 5 differ considerably from the virtual lack of correspondence observed across indices of isolation/internalizing diflBculties observed in grade 2. Teacher-rated shy-anxious behavior and peer-assessed sensitive-isolated behavior were significantly correlated in the grade 5 samples. The increasing correspondence across indices of social isolation with age is 0) ll . * * . C5 in . CO t> o a ^a o O O be c I • OO I CO CO - * n< O ^ H O 1^ O be w EC OS o u * Ed EZ CO CO CD i n O PL, l' f (M CO cq CO I I - H CO 00 CO ' H cq I Hymel et al. 2013 consistent with the previous research by Younger and his colleagues (Younger & Boyko, 1987; Younger, Schwartzman, & Ledingham, 1985, 1986), suggesting that children's conceptions of social withdrawal develop with age and become consistent with adult conceptions eifter the fourth grade. Thus, by grade 5, at least, there appeared to be some degree of association between teacher and peer assessments of isolation/ shyness as well as of aggression/acting out. The magnitude of the significant correlations obtained was moderate, however, suggesting that teachers and peers may nevertheless provide unique sources of information regarding children's social difficulties. tion and negatively related to popularity in grade 5. Aggressive/acting-out behavior, as judged by teachers or peers, was not significantly related to social self-perceptions in grade 2 or grade 5. If anything, the pattern of correlations obtained suggests that negative, social self-perceptions were more clearly linked to social isolation and shyness/anxiety than they were to aggression and acting-out behavior and that this relation emerged more strongly at later (grade 5) rather than at younger (grade 2) ages. Stability Correlations The primary purpose of the present study was to examine the predictive correlations obtained across grades 2 and 5. These data axe A second concern was the overlap ob- presented in Table 5. In examining these preserved between aggression and isolation dictive relations, an initial concern was the within the grade 5 sample. Peer assessments stability of particular assessments over time. of sensitivity-isolation and aggression-dis- Identical measures across the two grade ruption were significantly correlated, as were levels were available only for peer assessteacher assessments of acting-out and shy- ments of sensitive-isolated and aggressiveanxious behavior, although the magnitude of disruptive behavior. Both aggressive-disthese relations was not large. Taken together, ruptive and sensitive-isolated behavior, as these data suggest that aggressive/acting-out judged by peers, were significantly correlated behavior and isolated/shy-anxious behavior across the 3-year period. Although the may have been more likely to co-occur in teacher-based assessments differed in the two grade 5 than in grade 2. Despite the modest grades, we examined the correspondence beoverlap between indices of aggression and tween them across grades 2 and 5. The data withdrawal in grade 5, the two sets of vari- revealed that teacher-rated internsJizing beables had different concurrent correlates. For havior in grade 2 was significantly related to example in grade 5, just as in grade 2, mea- teacher-rated shy-anxious behavior in grade 5. sures of internalized negative self-regard (so- Also, teacher-rated externalizing behavior in cial competence, loneliness) were signifi- grade 2 was significantly related to teachercantly associated with indices of withdrawal/ rated acting-out behavior in grade 5. Thus, as anxiety and not with aggression. In addition, in previous research (Moskowitz et al., 1985; more popular children expressed greater feel- Olweus, 1984), indices of both aggression and ings of social competence and less loneliness. withdrawal were stable across the 3-year peThus, it appears that in grade 5 lack of popu- riod. Finally, similar but not identical larity and isolated, shy-anxious behavior, but measures were also available for overall not aggression, were associated with negative sociometric acceptance and children's selfperceptions of social competence. For both self-appraisals. popularity and self-perceptions of social comWhile the three indices of children's self- petence, significant stability coefficients were perceptions were found to be interrelated observed in both cohorts. (see Table 4), a somewhat different pattern of correlations emerged between indices of chil- Predictive Correlations dren's social difficulties and general versus Next, the predictive correlations obtained specific (i.e., social) self-perceptions. Overall, across the 3-year period were examined (see feelings of general self-worth were not Table 5). Given our interest in evaluating significantly related to either peer or teacher which of the grade 2 indices of social assessments of acting-out/aggressive behavior difficulty were significant predictors of particor isolation/shy-anxious behavior. In contrast, ular outcomes in grade 5, attention was diperceptions of social competence in grade 5, rected to the pattern of predictive correlations as in grade 2, were positively related to popu- reported in each column of the table, orgalarity but negatively related to peer percep- nized in terms of the vaiious types of tions of sensitive-isolated social behavior as outcomes considered: overall popularity, exwell as teacher perceptions of shy-anxious be- ternalizing behaviors, and internalizing behavior. As well, feelings of loneliness were haviors. A discussion of results obtained for positively related to peer perceptions of isola- the various outcome measures follows. 05 q o I l' I •^ O (D 00 CO CO "-t o CO • i-H 1> O CO 00 —I i-HO OfN m i-H ' ' l' « t~ in 00 o CO CO ' H (M 1—I q 13 I CM I I I 00 I o < O I in I I O in H Q o e^o qi-H 1-1 pa o u < 91 I I r 05C0'^ COi-HCO l' I o a> c 3 CO ( 1 O PH CO • CO 1 en if Hymel et al. Popularity.—Peer acceptance or popularity, as judged by grade 5 peers (col. 1 of Table 5), was correlated rtiost highly with popularity in grade 2. Popularity in grade 5 was negatively correlated with peer-rated aggression and isolation, as well, and with externalizing difficulties, as judged by teachers in grade 2. Externalizing outcomes.—As expected, peer-assessed aggressive behavior in grade 5 was negatively correlated with popularity and positively related to peer-perceived aggression, as well as teacher-rated externalizing problems in grade 2. A similar pattern of predictors was found for teacher-rated acting-out behavior. Acting-out behavior in grade 5 was negatively correlated with popularity and positively correlated with peer-rated aggression and teacher-rated externalizing difficulties in grade 2. These data clearly suggest that externalizing problems and unpopularity in grade 2 predict externalizing difficulties and unpopularity in grade 5. The stability of aggressive, externalizing difficulties, as well as the predictive link between rejection and aggression, have been fairly well established in the literature (see Coie, Dodge, & Kupersmidt, 1990; Parker & Asher, 1987, for reviews), and thus these findings serve mainly to replicate previous research. Social withdrawal.—Of primary interest were outcomes of an internalizing nature (cols. 4-8 in Table 5). First considered is the outcome of social withdrawal, often viewed as a behavioral reflection of internalizing difficulties (Achenbach, 1982). Social isolation, in grade 5, was assessed by peer perceptions of isolated behavior and by teacher perceptions of shy/anxious behavior. Peer-assessed isolation in grade 5 was negatively correlated with popularity and positively correlated with peer-assessed isolation in grade 2. Teacherrated shy-anxious behavior in grade 5 was predicted by internalizing difficulties, according to second-grade teachers, as well as by isolated behavior, according to second-grade peers. Thus, indices of social withdrawal in early childhood appeared to predict social withdrawal in middle childhood. The predictive correlations here are particularly notew^orthy given the general lack of correspondence observed across various indices of 2015 isolation and internalizing behaviors within grade 2, as discussed previously. Self-perceptions.—Finally, we turn to the predictive correlates of grade 5 children's self-perceptions. Self-perceptions of social competence in grade 5 were significantly and positively related to perceptions of social competence as well as negatively related to peer-rated isolation as assessed 3 years earlier. Generally, the magnitude of diese predictive relations was stronger in Cohort 1 than Cohort 2, although significant differences between the correlations were only observed in the case of perceptions of socid competence, as assessed across the 3-year period. Here, perceptions of social competence in grade 2 were significantly related to grade 5 perceptions of social competence in Cohort 1, r(46) = .56, p < .001, but not Cohort 2, r(32) = .22, p = .10. Greater loneliness in grade 5 was expressed by children who, 3 years earlier, had been perceived by peers to be unpopular and sensitive/isolated in their social behavior and who had perceived themselves to be more socially incompetent. The relation observed between loneliness and previous self-reports of social competence was significantly stronger in Cohort 1 than in Cohort 2. Specifically, in Cohort 1, grade 5 loneliness was significantly related to self-reported social competence, r(48) = - .65, p < .001, although this relation was neair zero in Cohort 2. Finally, regarding predictions of feelings of general self-worth, results indicated that children who expressed low overall self-esteem in the fifth grade were those who perceived themselves to be socially incompetent in grade 2, although these relations were stronger in Cohort 1, r"(45) = .44, p < .001, than Cohort 2, r(32) = .06, N.S. Regression Analyses In an effort to determine the relative importance of our measures as predictors of later outcomes, a series of multiple regression analyses was conducted, predicting each grade 5 outcome from the eight grade 2 indices of social difficulty.^ Given no specific a priori hypotheses regarding the relative predictive power of these variables, all eight grade 2 predictors were considered simultaneously in each of these analyses using a forward entry approach. Results are presented in Table 6. ^ When these regression analyses were conducted with sex of subject entered first, there was no significant prediction accounted for by this variable. While these findings are not surprising, given the fact that similar correlational patterns were observed for males and females, they are consistent with the notion that similar predictive relations were operating for both. oqcqco r in 00 O CO CO (N E 3 O I O Tfi CO O I— CO l O l O CO o o cq O I—^ O ""f * * * int-io ^ O r * * * * 10050505 <NCO0<O 00 O o 6 13 a 111 a a ft H P< 0) j) B tD ^-^ V be ta bota c >r a V ft'5'ftT30 O cS 'CH '—' _C '—' n tZ! J- O W 05 c3 cti ' ^ rt Q m < tuD Qj CL ^ -M '^ ^ O o3 iT3 s28 8 'ca Q ^ OS o m o CO I ratec 0) 2 1 3 •s 01 ft § 3 O be Ml O 8 I 1) a o •43 CJ cd T3 0) T3 O 1 a) ^^ CO o d Q ft 3 O I •a a O CO o Hymel et al. 2017 Popularity.—As can be seen in Table 6, overall status or popularity in grade 5 was significantly predicted by three grade 2 variables: popularity, teacher-rated externalizing difficulties, and peer-rated isolation, with roughly 38% of tfie variance in fifth-grade popularity accounted for by these variables. Popular children in grade 5 tended to be those who were popular in grade 2 and those whom teachers viewed as exhibiting fewer externalizing problems and whom secondgrade peers viewed as less isolated. These findings, consistent with previous correlational results, point to the stability of peer rejection over time and to the primacy of aggressive behavior in predicting later peer acceptance and popularity. These results also support the notion that isolated behavior is increasingly linked with peer rejection as children move through the elementary school years. judged by peers and teachers, respectively. For peer-assessed isolated behavior, results of the regression analysis revealed two significant grade 2 predictors: peer-rated popularity and teacher-rated internalizing problems, which together accounted for apjproximately 21% of the variance in grade 5 isolated behavior, as judged by peers. Thus, peer assessments of isolation in grade 5 could be predicted from popularity and teacher ratings of internalizing problems 3 years earlier. Externalizing outcomes.—Next considered were predictors of externalizing problems in grade 5, as assessed by peer-rated aggression and teacher-rated acting-out behavior. For peer-assessed aggression, results of the regression analyses revealed two significant grade 2 predictors: peer-assessed aggressive behavior and teacher-rated externalizing problems, which together accounted for 27% of the variance in aggression in grade 5. Thus, children viewed as aggressive by peers in grade 5 were those who were viewed by second-grade peers as aggressive and by second-grade teachers as exhibiting externalizing difficulties. In the case of both teacher and peer assessments of shy/anxious/isolated behavior in grade 5, then, teacher evaluations of internalizing problems (including items descriptive of shy, solitary behavior) 3 years earlier emerged as a significant predictor. The general failure of second-grade peer assessments of isolated behavior to emerge as a significant predictor, despite significant zero-order correlations with dependent vEiriables (see Table 5), may refiect the fact that conceptions of isolation are not cohesive in young children (e.g.. Younger et al., 1985, 1986; Younger & Boyko, 1987). Nevertheless, peer perceptions of popularity do appear to predict subsequent peer perceptions of isolation (see Table 6), suggesting that peer evaluations of acceptance, but not isolation, may be critical. Results of the regression analyses conducted for teacher-rated acting-out behavior in grade 5 revealed two significant grade 2 predictors, which together accounted for about 18% of the variance: peer-rated aggressive behavior and popularity. Thus, fifthgrade children whom teachers viewed as exhibiting acting-out behavior were those who were less popular with peers in grade 2 and those whom second grade peers viewed as exhibiting more aggressive behavior. Consistent with previous research and our own correlational results, then, the present results confirm the predictive links between early peer rejection and aggression and subsequent externalizing outcomes. Internalizing behavior.—Next, multiple regression analyses were conducted to examine the predictors of internalizing dutcomes in grade 5. First considered were indices of isolated, shy-anxious behavior in grade 5, as With regard to teacher-rated shy-anxious behavior in grade 5, results of the regression analysis revealed only one significant grade 2 predictor: teacher ratings of internalizing problems. Thus, roughly 14% of the variance in teacher-rated shy-anxious behavior was predicted by intemaJizing problems judged by different teachers using different rating scales 3 years earlier. Self-perceptions.—Self-report indices of internalizing difficulties in grade 5 were considered next: self-perceptions of social competence, loneliness, and general self-worth. Results of regression analyses conducted for each of these three variables were the same: self-perception of social competence in grade 2 was a significant predictor of perceptions of social competence, general self-worth, and loneliness 3 years later, with 8% to 18% of the variance accounted for across outcome measures. Thus, children who viewed themselves as low in social competence in grade 2 were likely to express similar feelings in grade 5, thought less of themselves overall, and reported greater feelings of loneliness and social dissatisfaction. Negative perceptions of social competence, then, may be well established as early as the second grade and appear 2018 Chad Development to predict subsequent negative self-regard. The fact that second-grade social selfperceptions emerged as the only significant predictor of subsequent indices of social and general self-regard may be attributable simply to method variance (i.e., self-perceptions predict self-perceptions). Consistent with such an argument is the fact that, in previous correlational analyses (Table 5), second-grade social self-perceptions were clearly the strongest, if not the only significant correlate of subsequent self-perceptions. Prior to dismissing these findings as due simply to method variance, however, one must consider the fact that such negative social selfperceptions are not created in a social vacuum and are tied, both concurrently (Tables 3 and 4) and predictively (Table 5), to early social isolation but not to aggression. Conclusions Our results provide additional support for previously reported concurrent and predictive links between early peer acceptance, aggression, and externalizing outcomes. Specifically, children low in popularity, in both grades 2 and 5, were those who were viewed as aggressive by peers and those who were judged by teachers as exhibiting externalizing problems (hostility and aggression, grade 2) and acting out behavior (grade 5). The results also demonstrated considerable overlap among the various indices of aggression/acting out/externalizing problems across information sources in both grades 2 and 5 and the stability of these indices across the second- to fifth-grade assessments. Predictively, results of regression analyses indicated that second-grade indices of low peer popularity, peer-assessed aggression, and teacherrated externalizing problems were predictive of subsequent externalizing outcomes 3 years later. Linkages between early aggressive behavior and later difficulties of an externalizing nature lead naturally to the question of what psychological variables predict outcomes of an internalizing nature. Our hypothesis was that early social withdrawal rather than aggression would be predictive of these outcomes. However, some of our results might lead one to question the utility of indices of early social withdrawal. Specifically, the various indices of social withdrawal obtained (peer, teacher, and observational assessments) were not significantly interrelated among the second graders. These findings are not altogether surprising given that Younger and colleagues (Younger et al., 1985, 1986; Younger & Boyko, 1987) found that young children's conceptions of social withdrawal are not well articulated. Moreover, these results are consistent with those of Ledingham et al. (1982), who found that teacher and peer assessments of social withdrawal were less highly interrelated than were teacher and peer assessments of aggression, especially among younger children. While these findings suggest caution regarding the utility of early indices of social withdrawal, our other findings support the utility of these measures. In particular, peer assessments of socially isolated behavior were found to be relatively stable across the second and fifth grades. Early indices of social withdrawal were found to be significantly and negatively related to concurrent indices of peer acceptance as well, and to selfperceptions of social competence in both grades 2 and 5. These results are noteworthy in several respects. First, they demonstrate that social isolation, as well as aggression, is an important contributor to peer acceptance during middle childhood. While the links between peer rejection and aggression have been well established within the literature, researchers have only recently recognized the heterogeneous nature of rejected children and the fact that isolation as well as aggression may be characteristic of some rejected children (e.g., Coie et al., 1990; French, 1988; Rubin, Hymel, LeMare, & Rowden, 1989). Second, our results demonstrate significant concurrent relations in both the second and fifth grades between negative social selfperceptions and indices of social withdrawal but not aggression or acting-out behavior. Concurrently, then, it appears that social withdrawal is associated with negative selfregard, but that aggression is not. These concurrent data take on added significance when the predictive correlates of aggression and withdrawal are contrasted. Our predictive correlations also reveal linkages between negative self-perceptions and indices of social isolation, but not aggression. Specifically, peer assessments of social withdrawal in grade 2 as well as second-grade teacher perceptions of internalizing problems (i.e., anxious, fearful, and solitary behaviors) were significant predictors of negative social self-perceptions (loneliness, perceptions of social incompetence) 3 years later. In contrast, grade 2 measures of aggression (peer assessed) and externalizing problems (teacher assessed) were not predictive of subsequent Hymel et al. negative social self-perceptions. In a series of regression analyses, early (grade 2) indices of social withdrawal did not emerge as a significant predictor of later negative self-perceptions. Rather, the strongest link was between negative social self-perceptions in grade 2 and continued negative selfperceptions in grade 5, a finding that could be dismissed as resulting from method variance. However, as we have noted, these negative social self-perceptions are not created in a social vacuum and are linked, both concurrently and predictively, to early social withdrawal but not to early aggression. Early social withdrawal, then, appears to be a useful predictor of subsequent negative self-regard, a major component of internalizing outcomes, despite the fact that various indices of early social withdrawal were not significantly intercorrelated in grade 2. It is not clear, at this point, whether these links are causal ones. It is possible that early social withdrawal contributes to a child's negative self-perceptions, but it is also likely that social withdrawal itself is a behavioral refiection of or response to negative selfperceptions, including perceptions of social incompetence and anxiety. The cost of such withdrawal may be the failure to fully develop adequate social skills (Rubin & Krasnor, 1986), which, in turn, may lead to further withdrawal and more negative self-regard. The question of causality, then, remains an important problem for future research. Nevertheless, our results support the argument that internalizing outcomes may be likely for children exhibiting particular forms of social difficulty, namely, withdrawn children. Early social withdrawal or isolation, then, may indeed be a risk factor in early development and should not be ignored in future research. The present findings are particularly compelling given the relatively limited sample size, the similarity of results obtained across cohorts, and the fact that some of the more socially withdrawn children in the sample were eliminated due to selective attrition. While replication of these findings is clearly called for, the present results serve to underscore the need to consider both social withdrawal as well as aggression, and internalizing as well as externalizing outcomes in understanding the nature of children's social difficulties. We stress, however that, although significant, the magnitude of our predictive correlations was not large, suggesting that not all isolated or aggressive children face later difficulties. Our next task, then, is to identify 2019 those factors that mediate the relation between early social difficulties and subsequent maladjustment. References Achenbach, T. M. (1982). Developmental psychopathology (2d ed.). New York: Wiley. Achenbach, T. 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