Allianz – delivering on our promises

Transcription

Paul Achleitner
Allianz – delivering on our promises
German Corporate Conference
Frankfurt, June 2, 2005
Paul Achleitner: Allianz - delivering on our promises
Allianz’ businesses in 2004
Total revenues1:
EUR 43.8bn
Life/Health
Total revenues1:
EUR 45.2bn
Banking
Net operating
revenues1: EUR 6.5bn
10%
30%
27%
3%
Asset Management
3rd party AuM:
EUR 585 bn
8% 15%
31%
7%
25%
10%
11%
11% 11%
Largest P/C insurer
worldwide
Core strengths in main
European markets
Germany
Italy
France
Other Eur.
10%
5%
97%
19%
Leading position in
private & corporate
pension business in
Germany
Strong positions in core
EU markets and the U.S.
Strong German
franchise with crossselling capabilities in
private and corporate
banking
70%
U.S.
Other
0505_HK_GermanCorpConf_19ckr.ppt
Property/Casualty
Top 5 global asset manager
All major equity investment
styles, fixed income (PIMCO)
and structured products
1) Segment consolidated
6/2/2005
Over 60 million retail customers worldwide
1
Allianz at a glance
Operating profit1 2004 (EUR bn)
Revenues1 2004 (EUR bn)
EUR 96.9bn
AM
2.5
L/H
45.2
P/C
43.0
EUR 2,199m
Banking
9%
P/C
58%
L/H
21%
Risk adjusted capital2 2004 (EUR bn)
Banking 104
L/H
808
P/C
AM
EUR 34.3bn
3,325
-152
Consolidation -1,886
1) Fully consolidated
EUR 6.9bn
AM
Banking
2.0
6.8
L/H
4.5
P/C
17.7
Holding
2) End of period
Net income 2004 (EUR m)
AM
12%
3.3
6/2/2005
Banking
6.2
2
Allianz 2002-2004
Operating profit (EUR m)
Net income (EUR m)
6,856
4,066
1,890
2,199
-524
-1,496
2003
2004
2002
2003
2004
6/2/2005
2002
3
Still a good buying opportunity
Analyst recommendations (May 2005)1
Allianz share price development
Neutral
40%
60%
EUR
Buy / outperform
0% Sell / underperform
120
Price target (consensus): EUR 113
Allianz rights issue
100
EUR 4.4bn
80
60
1) Based on a survey among 10 senior sell side analysts
6/2/2005
01.04.2005
01.01.2005
01.10.2004
01.07.2004
01.04.2004
01.01.2004
01.10.2003
01.07.2003
01.04.2003
01.01.2003
40
4
Update: our “3+one” program
Protect and enhance capital base
Substantially strengthen operating profitability
Reduce complexity
6/2/2005
Increase sustainable competitiveness and shareholder value
5
Capital base enhanced
Including
“All in one”
pro forma
Achievements 2004/2005
Capital strengthened
Successful launch of “All in one”
transaction
- Improved debt structure
- Sound capital base
Risk capital surplus1
(EUR bn)
18.9
16.0
11.8
Risks reduced
Lower equity gearing
Less equity cluster risks
Reduced risk-weighted assets in
banking
-1.7
2002
2003
2004
2004
6/2/2005
1) Based on internal risk capital model
6
Operating profitability strengthened (1)
Property/Casualty Insurance
CR
GPW
10.7
10.8
14.6
14.4
14.2
97.7%
95.8%
92.1%
(EUR bn)
Stat.exp.
ratio1
1,004
9.2%
6.6%
455
497
1004
282
9.7%
11.8
371
357
371
357
1Q2004
1Q2005
544
497
282
247
263
-5
1Q2003
1Q2004
1Q2005
1Q2003
Net
income
Disciplined underwriting
High quality risk management (e.g. NatCat)
Efficiency gains and expense reduction
Improving overall shareholder margins
Operating profit distorted by capital gains
Net income appropriate performance measure
Target FY05: CR < 95%
Target FY05: op. profit ≥ EUR 1.5bn
(EUR bn)
6/2/2005
GPW
Life/Health Insurance
1) Net acquisition costs and admin. expenses divided by net premiums earned
7
Operating profitability strengthened (2)
Dresdner Bank
Op. Rev.
1.8
Asset Management
1.7
1.6
(EUR bn)
CIR
Op. Rev.
0.5
0.5
0.6
71.9%
66.9%
60.9%
(EUR bn)
82.7%
81.4%
80.4%
174
176
CIR
216
137
231
180
231
217
137
180
-42
-42
1Q2004
1Q2005
1Q2003
1Q2004
Successful restructuring
Sound credit quality (coverage ratio 1Q05: 61.9%)
Two way cross-selling key to growth
Best of breed CIR
New global set up for growth
Target FY05: earn cost of capital (8.85%)
Target FY05: op. profit +10%
1Q2005
6/2/2005
1Q2003
8
2005: Profitability progress on track
+ 1bn
Net income (EUR m)
+1.7bn
1,830
1,227
1,184
834
617
+
1Q2004
1Q2005
1Q2003
1Q2004
1Q2005
=
Increasing shareholder returns and better quality of earnings
6/2/2005
1Q2003
-540
9
Complexity reduced
Selected initiatives
IRU
Company
Ongoing reduction of nonstrategic loan portfolio
Health portfolio Netherlands
July ‘04
sale
Allianz President General Taiwan
Aug. ‘04
sale
AGF Chile P&C
Aug. ‘04
sale
Allianz Canada
Oct. ‘04
sale
Life portfolio Guernsey
Oct. ‘04
sale
ZA Verzekeringen Belgium
Nov. ‘04
sale
Mondial Morocco (31% stake)
Nov. ‘04
sale
Allianz Cornhill Life
Dec. ‘04
sale
DBLA Private Banking
Dec. ‘04
sale
Astrée (Tunesian insurer)
Jan. ‘05
sale
BNP-AK Bank Turkey
Jan. ‘05
sale
IRU Private Equity Portfolio
Mar. ‘05
sale
Allianz General Insurance Vietnam
Mar. ‘05
sale
Gecina
Mar. ‘05
sale
“All in one”
Significant reduction of Dresdner
Bank’s non-strategic equity
portfolio
Sustainability
Business optimization driven
by CEOs instead of head
office
Sale of sub-critical subsidiaries,
e.g. AZ Canada, AZ President,
ZA Verzekeringen, Cornhill Life
Transaction
6/2/2005
Divestments
Country Announced
10
Enhancing Allianz‘ competitiveness
Strategic approach
Risk management
Hedging and diversification
Maturing business
Managing for value growth
Leverage strong position
BRIC1
Placing “table stakes”
US Life
Profitable growth
EU pension business
Capitalize on strength
6/2/2005
CEE1
Growth markets
1) CEE = Central and Eastern Europe ; BRIC = Brazil, Russia, India, China
11
Europe has exciting growth potential –
it’s the pension market
Growth drivers
Demographic change
- longevity
- population ageing
EU pension assets 2004 – 2015 (EUR bn)
16,367
France
16,000
Germany
Few mature pension markets
14,000
Underfunded pension schemes
12,000
Italy
CAGR
+7,5%
Spain
+ 8.8%
Allianz
core
markets
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
8,000
Trend towards defined contribution
schemes
- higher contributions than in
defined benefit schemes
6,000
Management of longevity
opportunity
2,000
7,414
Finland
Ireland
+8.2%
Rest of
Europe
Norway
Portugal
Sweden
4,000
UK
Switzerland
Netherlands
0
2004e
+6.3%
Mature
markets
2015e
10,000
6/2/2005
Ongoing reduction of PAYG
benefits
Source: Allianz Global Investors
12
Relying on PAYG pension is no longer an option . . .
Deteriorating demographics trigger higher demand
Replacement
Ratio1
Spain
90
Austria
Sweden
80
Italy
Portugal
Low incentive for
private pension
60
50
Netherlands
Finland
Belgium
Norway
France
Germany
Denmark
40
Ireland
UK
Rising need for
private provision
70
30
Switzerland
20
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
Dependency
Ratio2
1) PAYG pension as % of net income prior to retirement (depending on the country, different income definitions apply (average; best 10 years; last year etc.)).
2) Individuals older than 65Y as percentage of the population aged 15Y-65Y
6/2/2005
Rising need for private pension arrangement
13
. . . and only annuities can provide full protection
Baseline
Event
Runs out of money at
Couple retiring
at age 65 with
EUR 1 million in
assets
Husband and wife live on to 95
88 years
Husband admitted to a
nursing home at 75
83 years
3 years of 7% inflation
83 years
3 years of a bear market
(à la 2000 - 02)
78 years
Monthly withdrawal EUR 5,000
(pre-tax)
Retirement income duration sensitivity (German example)
Real investment
returns of 4.7%
Life expectancy
of 86 years
6/2/2005
Further assumptions: equity allocation 35% with 7% p.a. return, fixed income allocation 65% with 3.5% p.a. return,
monthly withdrawal EUR 5,000, monthly nursing home costs EUR 3,000, inflation rate 1.5%
14
Leveraging Europe: Allianz is well positioned for EU pensions
France
Rank1
P.O.S.2
Germany
5
7,700
Rank1
P.O.S.2
1
18,531
Rank1
P.O.S.2
2
10,669
Spain
2
12,915
6/2/2005
Rank1
P.O.S.2
Italy
1) Rank by gross premiums written
2) P.O.S.: point of sale FY2004 including agents, subagents, brokers, salaried salesforce but not part-time salesmen; 909 proprietary bank branches included in Germany15
Critical factors for success in Europe’s pension market
Distribution
Products
Brand
has it all
Financial strength
6/2/2005
Strong local presence
16
Investor Relations contacts
Tel. +49 (0) 89 3800-3963
Head of
Investor Relations
e-mail:
oliver.schmidt@allianz.com
Susanne Arheit
Tel. +49 (0) 89 3800-3324
Holger Klotz
e-mail:
holger.klotz@allianz.com
Christian
Lamprecht
Daniela
Meintzschel
Tel. +49 (0) 89 3800-17975
e-mail:
andrea.foerterer@allianz.com
IR events
e-mail:
daniela.meintzschel@allianz.com
Tel. +49 (0) 89 3800-18180
Fax:
+49 (0) 89 3800-3899
e-mail:
investor.relations@allianz.com
e-mail:
peter.hardy@allianz.com
Internet (English): www.allianz.com/investor-relations
Internet (German): www.allianz.com/ir
6/2/2005
Peter Hardy
Tel. +49 (0) 89 3800-6677
Tel. +49 (0) 89 3800-3892
e-mail:
christian.lamprecht@allianz.com
e-mail:
susanne.arheit@allianz.com
Andrea Förterer
Tel. +49 (0) 89 3800-18124
Oliver Schmidt
17
Disclaimer
These assessments are, as always, subject to the disclaimer provided below.
Certain of the statements contained herein may be statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based
on management's current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual
results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. In addition to statements which are
forward-looking by reason of context, the words ‘may, will, should, expects, plans, intends, anticipates, believes, estimates, predicts,
potential, or continue’ and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. Actual results, performance or events may differ
materially from those in such statements due to, without limitation, (i) general economic conditions, including in particular economic
conditions in the Allianz Group's core business and core markets, (ii) performance of financial markets, including emerging markets, (iii)
the frequency and severity of insured loss events, (iv) mortality and morbidity levels and trends, (v) persistency levels, (vi) the extent of
credit defaults, (vii), interest rate levels, (viii) currency exchange rates including the Euro-U.S. dollar exchange rate, (ix) changing levels
of competition, (x) changes in laws and regulations, including monetary convergence and the European Monetary Union, (xi) changes in
the policies of central banks and/or foreign governments, (xii) the impact of acquisitions, including related integration issues, (xiii)
reorganization measures and, (xiv) general competitive factors, in each case on a local, regional, national and/or global basis. Many of
these factors may be more likely to occur, or more pronounced, as a result of terrorist activities and their consequences. The matters
discussed herein may also involve risks and uncertainties described from time to time in Allianz AG’s filings with the U.S. Securities and
Exchange Commission. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.
No duty to update
6/2/2005
The company assumes no obligation to update any information contained herein.
Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
18

Allianz – delivering on our promises

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