If you go - Friends of WALLY

Central Florida's new commuter line
gains riders despite initial opposition
by Jeffrey R. Orenstein
Orlando is home to famed theme parks,
pleasant weather, and nearly legendary traffic jams. Add to these one seemingly magical commuter railroad.
SunRail arrived in May 20 l4 as an answer for residents tired of getting ensnared·
in traffic jams on Interstate 4 and other Central Florida highways. Thirty-one-mile,
state-run SunRail boasts of a small, but
growing, ridership base while expansion
plans inch forward. Decades of opposition
to SunRail, or something similar, means this
popular commuter railroad might have a
touch of pixie dust guiding its destiny.
When you wish ...
A recent worldwide report on traffic
congestion from Kirkland, Wash.,-based
data firm INRIX says that the average Interstate 4 co11Unuter near Orlando spent 46
hours in traffic congestion a year. The report
confirmed other studies that pointed to the
potential importance of rail, but had little effect on decision makers until recently.
"Central Florida tried to get transit for 20
years:' says Noranne Downs, Florida Department of Transportation secretary for a
nine-county area, and Sun Rail's manager.
"About a decade ago, it emerged that the
best mode we could develop was commuter
rail. Our studies showed that it was the best
solution for the environment, the budget,
and its ability to move people:'
Despite this evidence, SunRail was nearly
killed before contractors could turn a shovel.
That was in 2011 when Florida Gov. Rick
46
Tl3ins JULY 2015
Scott rejected $2.4 billion in federal funds
for a proposed Tampa, Fla.-to-Orlando
higll-speed-railline. Courting anti-rail factions in Florida politics, Scott also froze
SunRail contracts and ordered a project review. Floridians widely believed that Scott
would cancel the commuter project.
Instead, Scott let SunRail move forward
in July 2011 to ilie cheers of Central Florida
business owners and key Republican legislative leaders. Though they were of the same
party as Scott, those Florida Republicans
pre-empted future governors by earmarking
funds for the project in 2009. Florida Chamber of Commerce President and Chief Executive Mark Wtlson issued a statement applauding the governor and calling SunRail
"a smart infrastructure investment:'
Downs attributes SunRail's eventual
completion to determined local leaders
who raised it from a regional planning organization's drawing board, where local
officials set priorities and established a vision for what iliey wanted. They have long
If you go ...
Su1 Rail is Central Florida's
commuter railroad, running 18 round trips
per day between DeBary, Orlando, and
Sand Lake. Ail adult fare for an end-to-end
one-way trip is $5. Trains run from about
5 a.m. to 11:30 p.m., weekdays.
Radio frequencies: Road, 160.725;
dispatcher, 161.565.
More information: www.sunrail.com
ranked SunRail as a top transit priority for
ilie region. The biggest challenge was negotiating complex local agreements that
officials in Volusia, Seminole, Orange, and
Osceola counties and the city of Orlando
eventually approved.
So far, SunRail has its critics beaten.
Planners projected daily ridership to be
4,300 passengers after one year. Sun Rail now
hosts an average 3,645 riders a day - and
on-time performance as of November 2014
was 97.8 percent. SunRail managers and observers predicted that mostly weekday commuters would take the train. They were surprised when more than 9,000 people rode
on the day after Thanksgiving 20 l4, when
downtown Orlando businesses are typically
dosed. On a Tuesday in December, daily
ridership also notched to more than 4,700,
Bombardier cab car No. 2008 leads a train
south after taking passengers at Winter
Park. Meanwhile, Motive Power MP32PH-Q
No. 102 gets flagged through a crossing at
Church Street. More MP32PHs are ready for
route extensions and additional service.
Above, Eric Hendrickson; nght, Denn1s Zaccardi
with trainloads of passengers traveling to
and from an Orlando Magic pro basketball
home game. The day after Christmas, there
were 6,400 riders, and New Year's Eve saw
4,200 paying passengers board.
This is positive news since SunRail
managers say the commuter railroad is
aimed at luring automobiles off roads,
spurring transit-oriented development projects that build near commuter stations
- and reviving downtown Orlando commercial and residential areas.
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Trains JULY 2o1s
Bombardier maintains 20 bilevel cars and 10 Motive Power locomotives at shops
northwest of Sanford. The Canadian company's contract extends for 10 years. Bill Cobb
/
"Over $500 million in [transit-orienteddevelopment projects are] being built now,
and that could be double. The next generation [of residents] wants to be mobile and
live near stations;' says Downs, the state
DOT official. "The locals had choices. We
gave communities a base station, and three
communities - Church Street in downtown
Orlando, Winter Park, and Longwoodchose to fund major upgrades~'
New development projects created to
connect with SunRail include Station
Pointe at Lake Mary, a mixed-use development adjacent to the Lake Mary station.
The housing project is dose to complet ion. The Central Florida Partnership, a
consortium of business groups and politicians, estimated that SunRail would generate 10,000 jobs "immediatelY:' Certain
officials are even more optimistic.
"Over the next 25 years, SunRail will create more than 250,000 jobs and more than
$8 billion in economic impact;' says Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer, who is currently
SunRail's board chairman. He says that ridership on a free rapid bus service that connects with SunRail "has jun1ped by 33 percent because of SunRail. These transit
options are changing the way people make
their way to and through our downtown~'
Though obviou~ly smaller than established commuter systems, SunRail's successes bode well for a Phase II expansion
planned for 2017. That expansion has partial
funding, and pieces of the pre-construction
engineering are work complete. Although
President Barack Obama's budget left out
federal support for SunRail expansion in
2016, supporters hope it will get the highball
in 2017, in part because ilie commuter railroad has support in the state legislature and
from Florida representatives in Congress.
Expansion plans would extend service
north from the current end of the line at
DeBary (just north of Sanford, the Auto
Train terminus) to the DeLand Amtrak
station and souili to Poinciana, using ilie
existing Kissimmee Amtrak station and
building new stations in Hunter's Creek
and Meadow Woods.
Also under active study, iliough not yet
funded, are extensions southeast to the Orlando International Airport (and possible
cross-platform transfers to A1l Aboard Florida's future private passenger-train service
from Miami) and northeast to Daytona
Beach, Fla.
Off to work they go ...
SunRail passengers ride on portions of a
61 -mile right-of-way tl1e state of Florida
purchased from CSX Transportation in
~009. It is known as the "A-line'' for ilie Atlantic Coast Line Railroad, whose silverand-purple locomotives once led Florida
Special and Champion nan1ed trains on this
line for Florida visitors until the 1960s.
Aliliough most CSX traffic shifted to ilie
former Seaboard Air Line main line, or
"S-line;' ilie freight railroad still maintains a
single Orlando-to-Waycross, Ga., manifest
train in each direction (Q455 and Q456).
CSX also delivers Indiana coal to an Orlando-area power plant four tinles a week and
moves shuttle trains of aggregates, including
one for Conrad Yelvington Distributors iliat
operates as often as twice a week.
" [CSX] still runs a few trains over our
line in ilie midnight-to-5 a.m. ·window and
in a few mixed-use windows between rush
hours;' says Tawny Olore, a SunRail project
manager who works for ilie state. "We get
along very well with CSX. If iliey need to
move a train, we accommodate iliem and
vice versa~'
As part of its upgrades to benefit com-
muters, the state double-tracked much of
SunRail's route since purchasing the rightof-way. Tllis enables the bright yellowtrimmed trains to operate between stations
at speeds up to 79 mph, averaging 33 mph
over the whole line, including stops. There
are 36 trains daily, 18 in each direction. Service schedules are more frequent for the
morning and afternoon commutes, but
there are midday trains and an evening train
that accommodate people traveling to sporting events and entertainment venues in
downtown Orlando. In addition to SunRail
trains, Amtrak uses the A-line for daily
round trips of the Silver Meteor, Silver Star,
and the Auto Train.
Seven MP32PH-Q locomotives from
Boise, Idaho-based Motive Power Inc., costing $2.4 million each, power the existing
trains in Phase I push-pull service. Three
more MP32PHs are on the property,
awaiting completion of Phase II stations
and track in the conling years. Passengers
ride in 20 bilevel Bombardier coaches and
cab cars built in Plattsburgh, N.Y. Cars are
wheelchair-accessible and have tables, a
lavatory, bicycle racks, electrical outlets,
and free wireless Internet.
Each of SunRail's stations has extensive
connections with local public transportation, especially at downtown Orlando stations, and a van service paid for by Florida
and Orange County taxpayers. It launched
in December 2014 to provide transportation from the Maitland station to Orlando's largest business core. Stations also
have passenger safety features including
bells, gates, and LED displays warning
about approaching trains.
Riders use either disposable tickets or reloadable "SunCards" to pay fares, which are
based on the number of zones traveled. Basic fare is $2 and there is a $1 fee for each
additional zone. Riders "tap on'' at a validator unit at the station prior to boarding and
must "tap off" their ticket at another validator at their destination before exiting the station. For now, the state pays for "station ambassadors" to assist riders with navigating
the fare process and getting where they want
to go via train and local transit connections.
101 details
Federal taxpayers financed half of SunRail's $1.2 billion construction cost. The
Federal Transit Administration alone ponied
up about $230 million for SunRail. Florida
and local taxpayers each shouldered a quarter of the remaining costs.
Planners estimated that the railroad
would cost $615 million for construction
plus $432 million to purchase the right-ofway and tracks. The state Department of
Transportation runs the 12-station railroad.
The state will run it seven years then hand it
over to the five cooperating municipalities.
Passengers head south from Sanford to Lake Mary. SunRail's Bombardier-built bilevel
coaches are wheelchair-accessible and have Wi-Fi, lavatories and· tables. Eric Hendrickson
Commuter rail start·ups compared
The 21•t century has been a good time for the birth of new commuter railroads in the
United States. Not counting light rail systems, nine other commuter railroad operations besides
SunRail started up since 2000, and two more began in the four years preceding the turn of the
century, for a total of 26 systems in operation. Several more are being planned. Heavy rail
commuter systems now serve terminus cities, ranging in size from New York City to Santa Fe,
N.M. The Tampa-St. Petersburg area in Florida, with a population of more than 2.8 million, is
among the largest metropolitan areas in the United States without commuter rail. Wel~known
heavy rail operations throughout the United States include Metra and South Shore in the greater
Chicago area; Metro-North, Long Island Rail Road, and NJ Transit, near New York City; and
Metrolink in metropolitan Los Angeles. - Jeffrey R. Orenstein
Commuter railroad
Start Cities served
date
2014 annual
ridership
Routemiles
Stations
SunRail
· A-Train
2014 Orlando
2011 Denton, Texas
540,700
12
• Capital MetroRail
Westside Express Service
2011 Austin, Texas
31.7
21
32
Northstar Line
Utah FrontRunner
2009 Beaverton, Ore.
2009 Minneapolis
2008 Salt Lake City,
Ogden, Utah
-s70,100
782, 100
6
501,100
14.7
721,200
4,416,100
40
9
5
7
44
16
New Mexico Rail Runner
Express
2006 Albuquerque,
N.M.
1,062,700
97
14
Music City Star
2006 Nashville, Tenn.
2000 Seattle
1998 San Jose, Calif.
1996 Dallas, Fort
Worth, Texas
256,700
3,362,800
32
83
82
34
6
12
10
• Sounder Commuter Rail
Altamont Corridor Express
- Trinity Railway Express
Five full-time state employees work on
SunRail and "a lot of it is consultant-driven," Downs says.
The state Department of Transportation, not a local authority, is responsible
for SunRail and its performance, while
Bombardier operates the railroad under
1,179,400
2,293,500
10
the terms of a 10-year, $195 million contract. The Canadian company dispatches
for SunRail out of Sanford, Fla:s Rand
Yard; maintains track, equipment, and
communications; provides customer service; and maintains vehicles, station platforms, and other buildings. Bombardier
www.TrainsMag.com
49
managers say they take advantage of inh ouse expertise wh en operating their own
equipment, as they do with SunRail, but
are capable of handling any manufacturer's products.
To infinity ... and beyond
With its one double-tracked line and 31
miles of service, SunRail may not be in the
same league as Chicagds Metra, Southern
California's Metrolink, or NJ Transit - yet.
Florida is growing fast, already surpassing New York State as the nation's third
most populous state. Meanwhile, Tampa is
only an hour away and is a huge metropolitan area that can easily support commuter
rail service. In the distant future, a Daytona
Beach-Orlando-Tampa railroad paralleling
Interstate 4 is a distinct possibility.
ln the near future, weekend and evening
50
Trains JULY 2015
runs may increase and include a single
round-trip night train; SunRail is experimenting with this now. And, Phase II completion is all but assured. According to a
published report in the Orlando Sentinel,
an aide with the Federal Transit Administration sent an email message to the newspaper saying that the "[Federal Transit Administration] has left the door open for the
SunRail Phase 2 South and Phase 2 North
projects to progress to construction grant
agreements if [the Department of Transportation] can provide updated information~'
There is enough momentum to see the
expansion through to completion, albeit not
as quickly as the state predicted. Construction is likely to begin in 2017, and service
should begin late that year or in-2018. Local
leaders expect the project to cost $91 million
for the Osceola extension and $35 million
SunRail trains operate push-pull over exAtlantic Coast line tracks through Orlando.
Features include this bascule bridge at Lake
Monrqe. Eric Hendnckson
for the Deland extension. As of early May,
Deland extension funding was in doubt,
while local officials said Osceola extension
funds appeared secure. Together, these projects would bring the route up to 61 miles instead of the current 31 miles, and increase
the pool of eligible riders.
It will be none too soon.The state is already at the beginning of a seven-year, $2.3
billion reconstruction project on 21 miles of
Interstate 4 through Orlando, which is set to
make the already-bad automobile
congestion worse.
It is possible that construction conges-
» SunRail ride video
Follow along with TRAINS' David Lassen for a
railfan view of the commuter railroad:
www.TrainsMag.com
SunRail trains, including this one led by MP32PH-Q No. 101 at Winter Park, are cleared
for 79-mph service between stations on a double-tracked main line. Kevin Andrusia
Estimating ridership for start-up railroads
tion will coax commuters to try SunRail.
This is what happened to suburban Miami's
Tri-Rail during Interstate 95 reconstruction, and there is no reason to conclude
that it will be different in Orlando. On top
of that, transit-oriented-development projects under construction or planned near
SunRail stations have the potential to boost
ridership. Additionally, if All Aboard Florida private passenger trains reach Orlando
International Airport from Miami, which
currently seems likely, the momentum for a
Phase III airport extension will be just
about irresistible. ~
JEFFREY R. ORENSTEIN is a retired political science professor who serves on the Tampa
Bay Area Regional Transportation Authority's
community advisory committee. He and his
wife, Virginia, live in Lakewood Ranch, Fla.
Transit is much like other goods or services bought and sold in the economy: Whether
and how many people will use it depends on its cost. Cost is both money and the time it
takes out of a person's life- ~nd what the alternatives are. Forecasting the demand for a
yet-to-open rail-transit service (commuter rail, light rail, subway, or streetcar} requires reliable
information and being familiar with the economic concepts. The fact that it's much harder to
estimate a new line's future benefits for potential riders than it is to determine how much it
will cost to build typically frustrates transit supporters. Luckily, proposed new lines today
have recent examples from other U.S. cities with which to compare theirs.
Calculating the degree to which a change in cost (either money or time) will affect
ridership works reasonably well when estimating the short-term (six months to one year)
effects of a change in fare or in the frequency or span (number of hours each day) of service.
However, for more major service changes or for introducing a new service, planners use
more-complex tools. These tools model such factors as where trips are likely to begin and
end, the expected levels of transit ridership in certain paths, and patronage on specific
routes and services. Planners take into account factors such as population and employment
in each zone along the planned line, the level of transit service the new line is expected to
provide (including its connectivity with existing service), the fare to be charged, and the time
and money costs of driving and parking, which is the main competing mode of travel.
These models have many sources for possible error, and they typically overestimate or
underestimate future ridership. There is also the possibility that a new service will lure people
to travel who were previously making fewer or no trips. Atraditional four-step urban
transportation forecasting model places value on travelers' time, and it discounts many of the
fixed expenses (other than gasoline) associated with
owning and maintaining a car. This model is inherently
biased toward the vast majority of trips being made by
private auto. However, a more sophisticated model
that breaks down trips by trip purpose (commute,
shopping, social, recreational, etc.), length, and
demographic factors provides a more accurate picture
of what kinds of trips will be taken by transit.
However, the potential to attract new riders is often
not the primary basis for a decision to build a new rail
line. Goals such as spurring economic development,
creating more walkable neighborhoods, and reducing
pollution tend to outweigh merely increasing mobility
A view from a southbound
(accommodating more trips), and these outcomes are SunRail cab car front window.
not measured through ridership alone. - Malcolm
Downtown Orlando is in the
Kenton, a Washington, D. C.-based transit advocate
distance. Jeffrey R. Orenstein
www.TrainsMag.com
51