THE DIAMOND CUTTING INDUSTRY AT CROSSROADS: THE
Transcription
THE DIAMOND CUTTING INDUSTRY AT CROSSROADS: THE
5 Industry T H E DIAMOND CUTTING INDUSTRY AT CROSSROADS: T H E IMPACT ON SRI LANKA rThilan Wijesinghe: Formerly Senior Consultant at Coopers & Lybrand (Management Consultancy Division) and since January 1991, Manager - Planning & Special Projects at Sampath Bank, 1.0 I n t r o d u c t i o n « r * * t present the diamond cutting in dustry is in a d e p r e s s e d state. Worldwide over-capacity in cutting and polishing, combined with increases in the price of rough diamonds and w e a k d e m a n d in the traditional retail markets of U S A and J a p a n , and m o r e recently, the Gulf cri sis, h a v e contributed to the present situ ation. T h e industry is n o w in the process of rationalising itself to meet the n e w challenges a h e a d . T h i s article broadly analyses the events leading to the current situation and at tempts to a s s e s s its impact on the dia mond cutting industry in Sri L a n k a and presents strategies for promoting invest ments with this sector. 2.0 Brief O v e r v i e w o f t h e D i a m o n d C u t t i n g I n d u s t r y In S r i L a n k a T h e evolution of diamond cutting into an important domestic export industry in Sri L a n k a c a n b e considered a result of the following factors, listed according to the probable order of importance: (a) a n innate ability to obtain the best "make" from rough diamond. (b) g o o d eyesight combined with a high d e g r e e of.nianuaMexterity. (c) high literacy rate, a n d the ability to follow simple instructions - i.e. high degree of trainability. Economic Review May/June 1991 (d) low w a g e structure. In general, it c a n be stated that a centuries old history In gemming and a n artisan culture, combined with a national a v e r a g e literacy rate of o v e r 85% h a v e helped foster within Sri L a n k a a labour force ideally suited for diamond cutting. T h e estimated export performance of Sri Lanka's diamond industry is s h o w n below: Year 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 j Exports ( R s . Million) 219 449 273 434 1215 1248 1629 3225 S o u r c e : Export Development Board. Diamond exports h a v e g r o w n from about R s . 220 million in 1982 to R s . 3225 million in 1989, according to E x port Development Board statistics. T h i s represents a n e x c h a n g e rate - adjusted c o m p o u n d annual a v e r a g e growth rate of about 34% for the period. In 1989;'Sri L a n k a had about 3000 cutters, and the a v e r a g e output from 12 factories in operation totalled around 25,000 carats per month. Although significant growth has b e e n accomplished in the past, Sri Lanka's output still remains a n insignifi cant 0.25% of the world's d e m a n d for cut and polished diamonds, estimated at ov.er U S $ 20 billion per year. F o r the s a k e of comparison, if the per formance of the garment industry is compared with that of diamond cutting, 'although no correlation exists between the t w o except they h a v e both been high growth export industries'in Sri Lanka, it c a n be s h o w n that garment exports far e x c e e d diamond exports in terms of value a s well a s employment generated. In 1989, o v e r 350 factories w e r e operat ing in Sri L a n k a exporting about R s . 17 billion in garments, more than 5 times the value of diamonds exported. T h e parallel which c a n be d r a w n h e r e is that in considering the relatively supe rior skills in diamond cutting available in Sri L a n k a , a n d probably a greater c o m parative advantage in comparison to garment manufacture, the export growth performance of the diamond industry during the last 3 y e a r s has been s o m e what limited. Most of the real growth In exports recorded appears to result from existing factories expanding production rather than h e w entrants into the busi ness. In an industry which held m u c h promise for growth in the 1980's only about 11 factories c o m m e n c e d opera tions during this decade. H e n c e there appear to be significant barriers to entry into diamond cutting from the point of v i e w of local investors. Briefly, the main barriers to entry into this business are g i v e n below: (a) extended learning c u r v e in achieving full productivity, and the n e e d to rely o n expatriate trainers at v e r y high cost. (b) limitedsuccess b y Sri Lankan inves tors in identifying joint venture partners and/or suppliers of rough arid distribu tors of polished g o o d s in major trading centres s u c h as A n t w e r p and T e l - A v i v . In comparison, Indians are in a favour able position to obtain reliable supplies of rough and market finished goods d u e to a large Indian-community taking up residence in A n t w e r p durig the early 1970's. T o d a y m o r e than 100 Indian families h a v e at least o n e m e m b e r / e s i d i n g In S3 A n t w e r p , thus forming a n invaluable link b e t w e e n the 4 trading floors in A n t w e r p a n d the cutting factories of India. Similar family ties h a v e b e e n established be t w e e n the J e w i s h community in A n t w e r p a n d cutting factories in Israel. T h e r e f o r e the traditional family ties prevalent in the b u s i n e s s automatically places a poten tial Sri L a n k a n Investor at a comparative d i s a d v a n t a g e in establishing links for supply a n d marketing. (c) t h e d i f f i c u l t y I n r a i s i n g w o r k i n g c a p i t a l f i n a n c i n g . F o r e i g n suppliers, particularly in the c a s e of n e w factories, often i m p o s e the burden of purchasing r o u g h outright o n local investors and require up to 60 d a y s credit for market ing. T h u s large s u m s of working capital financing a r e required, with banks g e n erally requiring 100% security c o v e r o n their e x p o s u r e . (Diamond stock is u s u ally not accepted a s collateral). (d) m u l t i p l e f o r e i g n e x c h a n g e c o n version a n d bank charges. Exchange Control regulations h a v e also affected the industry since diamond exporters, other than the f e w 100% foreign o w n e d c o m p a n i e s , are required to carry out multiple foreign e x c h a n g e conversions w h e n effecting imports a n d exports. T h e s e multiple dollar-rupee-dollar c o n versions result in additional b a n k c h a r g e s w h i c h e r o d e profit margins available to cutting factories. v T h e a b o v e factors, combined with the inherent fluctuations in the diamond market h a v e contributed towards inhib iting the g r o w t h of this industry in Sri L a n k a . In the following paragraphs, strategies to e n h a n c e the country's c o m petitive position a r e d i s c u s s e d . 3.0 T h e D i a m o n d I n d u s t r y - T h e Global Situation 3.1 O v e r v i e w After nearly 9 y e a r s of steady growth in turnover a n d profits, the diamond cutting industry is presently undergoing difficult times. Israel, w h i c h p r o c e s s e s almost half • the value of the world's rough diamonds h a s s e e n a 2 0 % decline in carats proc e s s e d this y e a r a s c o m p a r e d to 1989. S o m e of the country's 700 or s o facto-' 54 ries h a v e either closed d o w r y e t r e n c h e d w o r k e r s or m o v e d into the trading busi n e s s . India b y far h a s b e e n worst af fected b y the present recession facing the industry. In a country in w h i c h about 800,000 w o r k e r s a r e directly or indi rectly involved in diamond cutting, at least200,000 a r e reportedly out of work. T h e folowing paragraphs attempt to analyse the underlying reasons for this slump a n d presents the prognosis for the future of this industry. 3.2 F a c t o r s A f f e c t i n g C u t t i n g Industry T h e present slump faced b y the dia m o n d cutting industryfor small stones is a result of a series of e v e n t s , involving the D e B e e r s diamond cartel, cutting factories a n d retail markets in general. G i v e n below is a s u m m a r y of s o m e of the e v e n t leading to the present situ ation. T h e s e e v e n t s , although inter-re? lated, a r e not necessarily in the s e q u e n c e in w h i c h they occurred. E x p a n s i o n In India T h e mid to late 1980's w e r e v e r y profitable y e a r s for the cutting industry with the expansion fuelled b y strong economic g r o w t h worldwide. In particu lar, industrialists cutting and polishing in India w e r e making sufficiently large profits w h i c h enabled them to: (a) e x p a n d capacity, and (b) purchase rough diamonds from s o u r c e s other than their traditional s u p pliers at higher prices for purposes of stockpiling a n d cutting and polishing. D u e to strong market d e m a n d , the Indi ans w e r e able to m a k e adequate profits by paying premium prices for rough diamonds. T h e a b o v e situation led to an o v e r s u p ply of low quality, c h e a p Indian g o o d s being d u m p e d into the market. T h i s eventually contributed towards a n over all depression in pricestbr most small to medium s i z e d diamonds. Increase in t h e C o s t o f R o u g h Dia monds Partly top s t e m the Indian expansion in cutting capacity and stockpiling, the Central Selling Organisation of D e Beers increased prices of rough diamonds b y about 25% a n d 5.5% in 1988 a n d 1989 respectively. S l a c k e n i n g o f D e m a n d i n M a j o r Retail Markets J a p a n and U S A account for more than 65% of global sales in cut and polished g o o d s . T h e fall of the y e n against the dollar and the financial turmoil in T o k y o combined with-a- weakening U S e c o n o m y has contributed to the general slow d o w n in d e m a n d . G e n e r a l Shift i n C o n s u m e r P r e f e r ence With the glut of badly m a d e Indian g o o d s resulting in a n overall depression ofprices, c o n s u m e r s found small g o o d of a better " m a k e " affordable a n d per ceived them as a better investment stone (the "make" of a diamond refers to the quality of the cut a n d clarity). T h e r e f o r e , in broad terms the market d e m a n d for small diamonds shifted towards better quality, with customers being more s e lective of g o o d s purchased. T h e combined effect of the a b o v e fac tors has been the erosion of profits margins to cutting factories and a n e n suing rationalisation of cutting capacity through closures and lay-offs. T h e net result has b e e n that cutting factories h a v e b e e n on their o w n accord forced to obtain better market prices for finished g o o d s to remain profitable. T h e only w a y of achieving this desirable e n d , in a n environment of increasing prices of rough and slow d o w n in d e m a n d in tra ditional markets, h a s b e e n to produce a better quality stone a n d m o v e up-mar ket. Invariably this would m e a n better production m a n a g e m e n t a n d the u s e of improved technology which automati cally places the Indian industry at a dis advantage since it functions primarily o n a sweat-shop/cottage industry type model, making quality control difficult. 4.0 O u t l o o k f o r t h e D i a m o n d C u t t i n g Industry In S r i L a n k a 4.1 O v e r v i e w A s pointed out previously, the dia m o n d cutting industry is at crossroads. Economic Review May/June 1991 Industry With significant shifts in c o n s u m e r d e m a n d patterns, increasing prices of rough and o v e r capacity in cutting the in dustry is n o w undergoing a process of rationalisation. A n a l y s e d below is Sri Lanka's position vis-a-vis this changing environment. 4.2 I m p a c t o n L o c a l F a c t o r i e s In comparison to India, the impact o n local factories arising from a d v e r s e trad ing conditions has b e e n minimal. T h i s has b e e n primarily d u e to the Sri L a n k a n diamond industry functioning according to an "organised factory" model a s op posed to the "cottage industry" model prevailing in India. T h e organised factory concept allows Sri Lankan facilities to consistently pro duce better quality g o o d s w h i c h are marketable in relation to Indian g o o d s of poor "make*. T h u s profit margins to local factories, although comparatively less than margins obtained during the b o o m y e a r s b e t w e e n 1984 and 1988, h a v e b e e n adequate to remain in business. In contrast, the cottage industry model m a k e s quality control virtually impos sible since a single supplier usually supplies rough diamonds to literally d o z e n s of sweat s h o p s ; the supplier then re c e i v e s finished g o o d s w h i c h a r e of in consistent quality, thereby not being able to c o m m a n d premium prices in the market place. Furthermore, these s w e a t shops a r e often poorly lit, lacking in air conditioning, with equipment rarely main tained a n d balanced, a n d w o r k e r s are often plagued with poor eyesight a n d poorly remunerated. T h e combined ef fect of these factors is a poor quality product. H o w e v e r , virtually all Sri L a n k a n facto ries operate as well organised produc tion s y s t e m s , with air conditioning, suf ficient lighting and a relatively comfort able working environment. V e r y often quality control standards are stringent. T h e r e f o r e loss of jobs h a v e b e e n mar ginal resulting from the current e v e n t s in the market place. N e v e r t h e l e s s , it is reliably understood that about 200 to 300cutters h a v e either b e e n retrenched or h a v e voluntarily left their jobs d u e to the current industry slump. Contributing Economic Review May/June 1991 to this h a s b e e n the introduction of m o r e stringent quality standards resulting in the daily output of these w o r k e r s drop ping below acceptable standards. T h i s m e a n s lower earnings since w a g e s are linked to productivity a n d quality. T h e a b o v e suggests that the Sri L a n k a n factories a r e better equipped to c o m pete in the market place than their Indian counterparts. H e n c e it is realistic to a s s u m e that if the Indian industry is to remain competitive, cutting and polish ing operations n e e d to bo structured a s a n organised production s y s t e m . H o w e v e r this is not b e a realistic op tion in the near term d u e to e x c h a n g e control laws, taxes a n d a frustrating bureaucracy prevailing in India. T h e pres ent cottage industry model offers the Indian diamond trader an, ideal m e a n s of operating through the black market. Furthermore, channels for smuggling diamonds in and out of India h a v e b e e n established o v e r several d e c a d e s a n d it is unlikely that there will be a significant shift in the overall structure of the Indian industry into the organised factory model. A more likely event would b e the overall paring d o w n of the cottage industry op eration to manageable levels with liter ally thousands out of employment per manently. In the final analysis, the erosion of margins to the cutting industry has meant that the Israeli industry is affected d u e to high labour costs and the Indian industry d u e to poor quality. T h i s situ ation presents a n attractive opportunity for Sri L a n k a to penetrate the market further to pick 'up the slack in the industry, since under prevailing market conditions for small stones, Sri Lanka's competitive position is e n h a n c e d d u e to its low w a g e structure and reputation for quality. H e n c e a n argument c a n be p r e s e n t e d y h a t Sri Lanka's industry ,,|W|< should be poised for e x p a n s i o n . § J T t t o Potential f o r G r o w t h B a s e d o n the a b o v e analysis, it is rea sonable to a s s u m e that the cutting and polishing of diamonds in Sri Lanka has the potential to g r o w into a major export industry, generating significant gains in employment and net foreign e x c h a n g e earnings. If Sri L a n k a achieves a mere 5% s h a r e of t h e world's market for cut and polished stones, it c a n be roughly estimated that m o r e than 60,000 w o u l d gain direct employment, about 20 times m o r e than the present levels. Achieving significant growth within this export industry is m a d e possible in considering that: (a) it is generally acknowledged that the a v e r a g e productivity of Sri Lankan la bour is superior to that of India, Thailand and China. (b) d u e to the inherent multiformity of diamonds, automation in cutting and polishing is not e x p e c t e d to significantly .diminish the importance of manual la bour in the long term. the rationalisation presently under w a y within the industry is expected to ir reversibly e n h a n c e the competitive position of low cost, high quality produc ers s u c h a s Sri L a n k a . H o w e v e r , the a b o v e optimism does not necessarily lend itself to Sri L a n k a embarking o n a hastily executed large ecale capacity expansion programme; it merely suggests that if properlyplanned, the potential exists for Sri Lanka, with its liberal e x c h a n g e control laws, z e r o taxa tion o n exports, highly trainable labour and experience in operating large scale ' organised factories, to become the major growth centre for diamond cutting in the 1990's. ill 55' T h e argument against setting up n e w factories, b a s e d o n the present industry situtation is that: (a) a n e w factory's output during the initial 1-2 y e a r s of production is usually of a poorer "make" a n d l o w e r y i e l d d u e t o the relatively lengthy learning c u r v e in- . herent to diamond cutting; and as stated previously, the market for lower quality g o o d s is w e a k . (b) due to A n t w e r p ' s general reluctance to supply n e w factories, on a "cutting fee" basis, e n h a n c e d by the fact that Sri L a n k a n s d o not h a v e ethnic links to the trading floors of E u r o p e , n e w factories are additionally burdened with raising vast amounts of working capital finance (usually running into more than three times the cost of plant and equipment) a n d bearing the interest cost thereon. T h e r e f o r e factories commencing o p erations in the present business envi ronment are subject to s e r v e r e financial constraints through the combined ef fects of profit margin erosion,- high fi n a n c e c h a r g e s and costs of expatriate trainers. In the final analysis, starting a new factory currently would m e a n e x traordinary losses during the initial y e a r s of operation; and unless the market picks up dramatically, getting, started in dia m o n d cutting must necessarily be lim ited to parties with sufficient financial cloutto withstand initial losses and those w h o are committed to long term profits and returns. It is therefore natural to question a s to w h a t point in time a n e w Sri L a n k a n dia m o n d factory c a n operate a s a viable c o n c e r n . T h e a n s w e r is a s s o n a s the factory h a s adequately demonstrated to A n t w e r p that: (a) it is o w n e d and operated b y individu als (preferably family m e m b e r s ) of im peccable repute a n d financial stability. (b) the factory h a s sufficient installed capacity, is well m a n a g e d a n d its output is of a consistently goodWke". O n c e t h e s e attributes are d e m o n strated, the v e r y supliers w h o initiallyw o u l d h a v e required the Sri L a n k a n factory to p u r c h a s e rough diamonds t h r o u g h t h e m o n C O D terms a n d b e paid 56 for polished w h e n sold would b e willing - to take the "risk" of supplying rough diamonds, in v e r y large quantities o n a cutting fee basis. At present there are m a n y reputed traders w h o are also site holders in A n t w e r p willing to supply to Sri Lanka, s a w n g o o d s and makeables of about 10 pointers rough on a cutting fee ranging from U S $ 0.75 to U S $ 2.00 per stone. H o w e v e r supply is contingent on the factory having b e e n operational for about 18 months. A l s o exhaustive c h e c k s would be carried out o n the quality of the output and production methods a s well as the financial strength and standing of the o w n e r s . T h e latter is n e c e s s i t a t e d in considering that the diamond business is carried out largely o n trust; a n d d o c u mentary letters of credit w h i c h prevail in tradition import/export businesses are the exception rather than the n o r m . B e c a u s e s o m e dealers in A n t w e r p are willing to supply rough diamonds in quantities exceeding 100,000 stones per month o n a cutting fee basis, only to existing factories in Sri L a n k a passing an equivalent of a l i t m u s test" in dia m o n d cutting, literally millions of rupees of potential foreign e x c h a n g e earnings are lost to the country. F o r example-it c a n b e roughly estimated that a factory cutting and polishing 100,000 s w a n pieces a month would create employ ment for about 450 persons a n d net for eign e x c h a n g e earnings would total about R s . 50 million per y e a r . ments with Sri L a n k a n investors o n the following basis: (a) n e w factories with u n p r o y e n c a p a bility would h a v e to purchase rough diamonds o n C O D terms from suppliers w h o will retain a brokerage commission of upto 2%. W h e n cut and polished, the diamonds would be marketed b y the s a m e supplier w h o would again retain a commission of upto 2%. E x p o r t s from Sri L a n k a would be o n documents against acceptance with the period of the draft averaging a r o e u n d 60 d a y s . T h i s m e a n s that the local factory, would n e e d to carry the burden of a large working capital financing facility to c o v e r around 30 d a y s of r o u g h s t o c k a n d 60 d a y s of receivables. T h i s model involves no risk to the supplier w h o would a g r e e to supply rough and market polished at best prices prevailing in the market; his reputation in the trade would b e the main yardstick available to the Sri L a n k a n in vestor to ascertain that the supplier is acting in g o o d faith. f (b) once a n e w factory h a s established itself as a reliable manufacturer, usually possible after 12 to 24 months of o p e r a - . tions depending o n the quality of m a n agement, the A n t w e r p traders would willingly supply diamonds on a cutting fee basis. T h u s the n e e d to tie-up local working capital finance for diamonds is minimised. In certain c a s e s the supplier m a y e v e n take equity in the Sri L a n k a fa cility to partially finance capacity e x p a n sion. H e n c e Sri Lanka's Industry faces a conflicting situation: high labour costs and poor quality having contributed to m a n y factory closures in Israel a n d India respectively, diamond dealers are looking towards alternate s o u r c e s for cutting a n d polishing diamonds. H o w ever, Sri Lanka, a s a relatively efficient producer has insufficient capacity a n d skilled operators to meet this d e m a n d . Moreover, foreign investors are g e n e r ally reluctant to take equity in factories located in Sri L a n k a d u e to cutting facto ries being inherently difficult to m a n a g e from abroad, lack of family ties ' a n d general preference to m a k e profits from trading rather than manufacturing. Note that the transition from the first to the s e c o n d model is a reflection of the supplier's willingness to reciprocate the "trust" placed in him a n d analogous to a successful courtship leading to marriagel Ideally, a "mature" diamond cutting factory in Sri L a n k a should b e operating o n both models. T h e first model enables the Sri L a n k a factory to obtain a higher value a d d e d , particularly w h e n market conditions are propitious. T h e latter al lows the factory to e x p a n d production at a faster rate without the burden of ob taining e n h a n c e d facilities for working capital financing and offers protection, against market downturns. Nevertheless, reputed sight holders in A n t w e r p are willing to enter into a g r e e Nevertheless, the critical issue this re port w i s h e s to address is that the road to Economic Review May/June 1991 achieving "matured factory" status is a difficult o n e , and which m a n y Sri Lankan investors are reluctant to take in view of short term losses and other constraints discussed previously, it can therefore be argued that a situation has arisen w h e r e Sri Lanka's private sector is unable to take advantage of a potentially lucrative long term business opportunity without the benefit of G o v e r n m e n t policy con cessions directed exclusively towards promoting this industry. 6.0 G o v e r n m e n t P o l i c y I s s u e s T h e incentives for developing the dia m o n d cutting industry should primarily be directed towards minimising the bar riers and constraints faced by entrepre neurs during what can be termed as the "incubation period" of a n e w diamond cutting factory. T h a t is the period from start-up, to having a fully trained contin gent of w o r k e r s required to qualify for re ceiving g o o d s on a cutting fee basis, w h i c h under normal circumstances should not be greater than 2 y e a r s . with foreign equity, shold be granted to 100% locally o w n e d diamond cutting factories. This concession has the added benefit of lower interest rates which is a critical factor affecting competitiveness in the diamond industry w h e r e working capital e x p o s u r e is high. T h i s facility should replace the Central Bank refi nanced packing credit s c h e m e which is inefficient in the context of the norms of trade prevailing in the diamond in dustry. (Note that during the 1960'sand 70's c h e a p interest w a s vital in giving Israel's diamond industry a competitive edge o v e r many of their rivals in A n t w e r p and N e w Y o r k , w h o w e r e more depend ent on the changing s e a s o n s of c o m mercial rates.) diamond cutting centres canot be e m phasised e n o u g h . S c h e m e s such as "Imprest S y s t e m s " , margin accounts and trust receipts have been used by commercial banks in these cities to fa cilitate obtaining working capital finance. H o w e v e r the critical attribute required of bankers to the diamond industry, which is lacking in Sri L a n k a , is a specialised knowledge of the business (valuation techniques, market trends) and that of the individual diamond manufacturer, (factory capacity, production techniques, security s y s t e m s e t c . ) . (d) extension of pre-shipment credit guarantees by the Sri L a n k a Export Credit Insurance Corporation ( S L E C I C ) T h i s report does not attempt to g o into a lengthy discourse on the range of incentives which should be made avail able to the diamond industry, but high lights critical issues which n e e d to be a d d r e s s e d w h e n deciding on G o v e r n ment policy options for promoting this sector. Consideration should be given to the following: (a) loans at concessionary interest rates to finance the cost of expatriate trainers and exemption from the 25% tax on total emoluments for such train ers. (At present the Export Development Board has a loan s c h e m e for n e w facto ries to finance 50% of training costs, carrying aninterstrate of 5%per a n n u m , repayable o v e r 5 y e a r s . Ideally this s c h e m e shold c o v e r factories choosing to e x p a n d capacity as well). (b) facilities to operate U S dollar ac counts though Foreign C u r r e n c y Bank ing Units ( F C B U ) of local commerical banks, for the purpose of using export proceeds to pay for imports, thus avoiding multiple foreign e x c h a n g e c o n versions which result in e x c e s s i v e bank charges and erosion of profit margin. Permission to operate F C B U accounts, though presently granted to companies Economlc Review May/June 1991 (c) establishing separte "Diamond Di visions" within local commercial banks specialising in meeting the financing needs of this sector. T h e role played by commercial banks in the evolution of Antwerp, T e l Aviv and Bombay into major at a higher level than has hitherto b e e n offered to other export industries. A c a s e can be made that in v i e w of the v e r y high value of the imported input in diamond cutting, the insurance c o v e r offered to commercial banks under the Pre-ship- 57 Industry merrt Credit G u a r a n t e e S c h e m e of S L E C I C should be increased from 66-2/3 percent to 90 percent with a v i e w to promoting this industry. (e) creation of a special task force c o n sisting of representatives from the Dia m o n d Manufacturers Association, rele v a n t G o v e r n m e n t ministries a n d invest m e n t approving agencies and c o m m e r cial banks in formulating specific poli c i e s and guidelines in promoting this in dustry. T h e terms of reference of s u c h a committee must include the carrying out of a n indepth study of the functioning of the cutting industry in established and emerging centres s u c h as A n t w e r p , T e l A v i v , B o m b a y , Bangkok a n d Beijing and recommending policy m e a s u r e s to pro mote similar growth in Sri L a n k a . In considering the a b o v e , it should be noted that Sri L a n k a has not historically targeted policy concessions to d e v e l o p o n e specific industry. T h e r e f o r e , the implementation of these r e c o m m e n d a tions would result in representations b y exporters that s u c h m e a s u r e s should necessarily benefit other export indust <es as well. T h e following arguments .can be presented to justify preferential treatment for the diamond sector: (a) Historically, the growth in diamond cutting and polishing and subsequently trading within the world's major cutting centres e v o l v e d as a result of G o v e r n ment policies specifically directed to promoting this industry. (b) Diamonds being the most c o n c e n trated from of value a m o n g all traded commodities, the working capital e x p o sure in relation to fixed assets employed is m u c h higher than a n y export industry in Sri L a n k a . (c) In v i e w of a lengthy learning curve w h e r e operators m a y take more than o n e y e a r to a c h i e v e full productivity, e x patriate trainers a r e required for a rela tively long period of time at high cost. (d) V e r y often net foreign e x c h a n g e earnings as a percentage of net sales is presented a s an important m e a s u r e in qualifying for special investment incen tives. T h i s is a misleading indicator in .the context of diamonds w h e r e value .58 addition in percentage terms generally ranges from 8 - 2 0 percent depending o n the type of rough diamonds proc e s s e d . H o w e v e r in absolute terms, net earnings in foreign e x c h a n g e from dia m o n d exports can far e x c e e d other exports d u e to the high value of the c o m modity. (e) T h e e x p a n s i o n of this industry, quite apart from generating significant employment c a n lead to the establish ment of a major diamond e x c h a n g e in Sri L a n k a , bringing together interna tional b u y e r s and sellers, and contribute towards expanding the jewellery export industry a s well. It should b e noted that the manufac turing sector in Belgium and Israel h a v e responded to the loss of comptitiveness to low w a g e countries by successfully . computerising almost all the p r o c e s s e s -Involved in transforming diamond rough * into cut and polished stones. T h i s tech nology is k n o w n to increase labour porductivity b y 4 to 8 time that of manual methods. H o w e v e r presently the cost of automation is high and this technology cannot be u s e d o n all types of rough diamonds and limited to producing the brilliant cut only. T h e r e f o r e the impor tance of the labour input prevails. Nevertheless, in the medium to long term, there is no warrant for assumption that relatively c h e a p labour rates will continue to be available in Sri L a n k a and automated technology would remain costly and limited in its applications. T h e r e f o r e , o n e should expect that if Sri L a n k a is to remian competitive in the long term, this industry should be g i v e n the n e c e s s a r y incentives to e x p a n d its manufacturing b a s e in the short term so that profits c a n be invested in n e w tech nologies being e v o l v e d . 7.0 C o n c l u s i o n eign investment in this sector. If the history of cartelisation is a n a lysed for this century, without any doubt, the D e Beers diamond cartel can be considered the most successful. T o enter into this exclusive "fraternity" of diamond cutters and traders, one must necessarily p r o v e oneself worthy of "membership". U p o n entry into this diamond fraternity, the cartel treats ' t h o s e falling in line with its policies and guideline benevolently, ensuring that traders and cutters shall make ade quate profits in the long term, though short term windfall profits and losses are inevitable. E v e n the slightest viola tion of the "trust factor", all important to the functioning of this industry, would m e a n expulsion from this inner circle and re-entry into the business could literally take a g e n e r a t i o n , if at all. Simi larly traders, prior to benefitting from the supply of rough o n favourable terms, and equity participation. T h e r e f o r e e v e n if g o v e r n m e n t policies are in place to assist local entrepre neurs during the s o called incubation period, it can b e q u s t i o n e d whether Sri Lanka's private, sector has the resolve and the requisite management skills (having b e e n pampered o n industries and business opportunities yielding short terms profits,) to weatherthe initial losses in anticipation of long term profits, char acteristic to diamond cutting. In the ab s e n c e of ethnic and family ties to the major diamond trading floors of the world, there are no short cuts to success in this industry. Thailand and C h i n a are emerging as n e w growth centres for cutting and pol ishing in competition with Sri L a n k a a n d , if Sri L a n k a is to fully exploit her c o m parative advantage o v e r t h e s e two coun tries, the G o v e r n m e n t must e x t e n d c o n cessions to nurture the local industry through its incubation period as referred to a b o v e . T h e s e concessions are e s sential in considering the inherent closed nature of the diamond business and would eventually result in greater for Economic Review May/June 1991