Consumer Goods
Transcription
Consumer Goods
Leading consumer goods company of branded products Peruvian based with operations in Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador and Chile; and exports to more than 23 countries Second largest Andean Consumer Goods Company. Market leader in all categories in Peru 25% of revenue generated outside Peru Quoted in the Peruvian stock exchange; ranked as a top corporate governance company Manufacture and distribution: Consumer Goods Consumer Goods Consumer Goods 4 Business Units focused on 3 core businesses Peru Peru Peru Financial performance Animal Animal Nutrition Nutrition Mercosur Mercosur Andean Andean Region Region International Market & & C.America C.America Region Region 106 106 family family brands brands in in 16 16 different different categories categories Industrial Industrial Industrial Products Products Products 14 14 brands brands directed directed to to 22 brands brands for for fish fish and and the shrimp the food food industry industry shrimp feed feed 2011 Revenue: S/.4,256MM CAGR (2005-2011): 14.6% Debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.93 ROE: 18.1% Bond rating: AA+ (PE) by Apoyo & Asociados (May 2011) AA+ (PE) by Pacific Credit Rating (October 2011) Results Aggressive Growth Strong Competitive Position Cost Efficient Operations Cashflow Generation for Expansion Solid Market Shares in Core Categories International Expansion Higher Returns Transformational Changes Consumer & Market Oriented Leading brands & Diversified Portfolio Higher Value Added Products Strong Distribution Network Commodity Consolidation Use of Economies of Scale Low Cost of Production New Product Development Process Aggressive M&A strategy Growth through M&As and Integration Acquisition 1995 Merger Alicorp S.A.A 1996 1997 Acquisitions 2004 2005 S/.605MM (US$80MM) in Revenue in 1995 CIPPSA La Fabril 2006 2007 2008 2011 S/.4,256MM (US$1,579MM) in Revenue (2011) Consorcio de Alimentos Fabril Pacífico Molinera del Perú 2010 Planta de detergentes Industrias Pacocha Consorcio Distribuidor Peruvian Market Consolidation International Expansion 2012 Industrial Products Consumer Goods Andean Region & Central America Peru Mercosur Region • Edible Oil • Pasta • Laundry Soap • Margarine • Sauces • Laundry Detergent • Mayonnaise / Sauces • Cookies & Crackers • Soap • Cookies & Crackers • Juices (Powder) • Hair Care • Pasta • Ice Cream • Softeners • Juices (Powder) • Pet Food • Deodorant • Baking Flour (household) • Hair Care • Pasta • Cookies & Crakers • Jello • Personal care soap • Pet Food • Softeners • Laundry Soap • Laundry Detergent • Laundry Detergent Animal Nutrition • • • • Flour Pre-mix Edible Oil Shortenings • • Shrimp Feed Fish Feed 2011 Revenue: S/. 4,256 MM (US$1,579MM) EBITDA: S/. 551.7MM (US$204.6MM) % of Total 2011 Revenue 63% 30% 30% 7% 7% 30% 8% % of Total 2011 EBITDA 62% 31% 7% Market Share per Volume for the period May - June, 2012 Category Market Share Position Mayonnaise 96% #1 Laundry Soap 76% #1 70% #1 Margarines 63% #1 Juice (Powder) 65% #1 Edible Oil 55% #1 Laundry Detergent 54% #1 51% #1 44% #1 35% #1 31% #1 Animal Nutrition Brands (1) Industrial Baking Flour Pasta Pet Food (2) Cookies & Crackers (1) Inca Source: Kantar World Panel (1) Internal Source (2) CCR Audit Competitors Locals Molinos Río de la Plata GDP & PRIVATE CONSUMPTION1/2 (% YoY change) Private Consumption CONSUMER GOODS INDUSTRY1/2 (% YoY change) GDP 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1. In real terms 2. 2012 Figure is estimate Source: BCR, APOYO Consultoría 1. In real terms 2. 2012 Figure is estimate Source: Produce, APOYO Consultoría URBAN PERU: POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY SOCIOECONOMIC LEVEL & PRODUCT INNOVATION (2010) E D CE A/B D EC DA/B EC DA/B C A/B LIMA URBAN PROVINCES PERU TOTAL 22 8 9 35 25 20 31 38 28 13 29 43 Source: IPSOS Apoyo PREMIUM MAINSTREAM VALUE Inca National distribution coverage through: Iquitos Chiclayo • 27 exclusive distributors ORIENTE 240 clientes Piura • 100% of wholesalers and supermarkets Tarapoto Trujillo Huaraz • Food Service distribution system • 12 warehouses nationwide Huánuco Pucallpa • 25 sale offices Huacho Tarma Huancayo Lima • 9 manufacturing facilities Cusco Chincha Ica Ayacucho Juliaca Arequipa • Logistics in the 4 most important ports of Peru Tacna Exclusive Distributors Warehouses Sale offices Industrial plants TOTAL 200,000 clients MARKET STRUCTURE & REVENUES PER DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL Wholesalers Modern Channel Exclusive Distribution Wholesalers Modern Channel EXPENSE DISTRIBUTION B2B (In %) Mom & Pop Exclusive Distribution Other B2B Mom & Pop REVENUE STREAM 8 10 19 21 29 8 29 39 24 25 5 6 17 51 48 33 Peru Market Alicorp Peru Peru Market Alicorp’s Share 7% in Modern 30% Channel 21 per category Edible Oil: 32.6% 25 17 13 42 Other 42 Peru Market Alicorp Peru 2011 Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Apoyo Consultoría, CCR Audit Pastas: 33.2% Detergents: 42.6% 48& Crackers: Cookies 16.0% Mayonnaise: 83.4% 6 Alicorp Peru REVENUE GROWTH (YoY % Change) Consumer Goods Argentina Ecuador Colombia Chile Bolivia Haiti Animal Nutrition Colombia Ecuador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua China Ecuador 22% 46.7% Colombia 6% Industrial Products Canada U.S.A. Bolivia Ecuador Haiti Honduras 3% 3% 14.2% Others 11% Argentina 39% New acquisition: EEUU 4% Canada 12% 15.6% Foreign Revenue: S/.1,045.7M (US$387.9MM) 2011 ( 25% of Total Revenue ) ( 18.5% growth over 2009 ) CAGR 37.3% (2006-2011) Long-Term Target: 50% of Total Revenue Market Share per Volume Category Argentina (1) Hair Care Brands (OND’ 11) Personal Care Soap (OND’11) Laundry Detergent (OND’11) Cookies & Crackers (OND’11) Pound Cakes Pasta (Dry) Juice (4) (S’11) (4) (4) Ecuador (2) Pet Food (MA’12) LIMZUL Market Share Position 27% #2 18% #2 6% #3 3% #9 7% 11% 5% Mayonnaise (MJ’11) 23% 14% #2 #2 Pasta (MA’12) 15% #3 4% 5% #4 #4 32% #1 Baby Hair Care 4% #6 Cookies (JJ’11) 2% #7 Pet Food 2% #6 Hair Care (MA’12) Juice (Powder) (ND’11) Animal Nutrition Colombia Competitors (3) Source: (1) Household Panel KWP Argentina (2) Source: IPSA Audit (3) Nielsen Audi (4) Internal Source GNCH Our operational, distribution and sales platform National Distribution Coverage Regional Distribution Platform Colombia Nation-wide distribution network 1 industrial plant Plan to increase critical mass and coverage Ecuador Iquitos Piura Chiclayo Nation-wide distribution through local distributors Strong wholesaler and retailer distribution Plan to increase participation in wholesale market Animal Nutrition plant under construction Tarapoto Peru Trujillo Pucallpa Huanuco Huaraz Huacho Tarma National distribution coverage 27 exclusive distributors 13 warehouses nationwide 25 sales offices 16 industrial plants Argentina Huancayo Lima Cusco Own nation-wide distribution network Strong presence in rural areas 5 industrial plants in Buenos Aires Plan to increase presence in super markets Chincha Ica Ayacucho Juliaca Arequipa Tacna Exclusive Distributors Sale Offices Chile One industrial plant in the Chiloe Island Direct sales to final client Most of clients located in surrounding areas Specialized sales force in the aquaculture business and in constant contact with the client Warehouses 15 Corporate Unit Business Unit Consumer Goods Peru International Industrial Products Animal Nutrition Business Partners Marketing By Geographic Area By Category Supply Chain Finance Increasing Consumer & Customer Value HR Matrix Organizational Structure DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO PRODUCT DIVERSIFICATION (% of Total Revenues) Edible Oil Pastas Laundry Detergent Industrial Baking Flour Food Food Mix 220 10% 10% Food Mix Other Categories 9% 9% 9% 7% 9% 8% 8% 9% 34% Others Categories Others Categories 21% 37% BRAND EQUITY 9% 11% Ace 100 Ideal Metro Sao Cristalino Deleite Bell’s 11% 11% Marco Polo GN Sayón Cogorno Magia Blanca Sapolio Ña Pancha Patito 20 20% 11% 34% 11 37% INCA Victoria Don Angelo Anita Molitalia Cogorno Don Maximo Anita 20% 21% 21% 20% Santa Rosa 83% 83% 82% 57% 83% 82% 69% 54% 53% 68% 2009 2008 2010 69% 69% 45% 43% 68 Las Mercedes Invicto 2006 2007 20082007 2006 0 CATEGORY Home & Personal Care 9%9% 38% Ariel Home & Personal & Personal Home CareCare 100 represents the national average. Perceptor and IPSOS Apoyo Survey Methodology: 1,500 Households in Lima + 12. Brand equity is defined by drivers such as: performance, value equation, quality, brand leadership, brand recognition, emotional attachment, health and safety, taste, other variables. Alicorp Total Revenues (US$MM) 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 900 1,253 1,233 2009 2011 2009 20 2010 2011 1,332 1,579 Clear strategy to diversify towards the HPC markets Other Categories include: Omega, and Animal Nutrition 2010 MAIN CATEGORIES GROWTH PER CATEGORY (2010-2011) 2011 Growth - Revenues: 13.7% - Volume: 1.8% Sales Growth Volume Growth 25.4% 21.3% 17.6% 15.0% 14.3% 13.8% 22.0% 20.2% 9.4% 5.5% -9.7% -4.6% Edible Oil Pastas Laundry Detergent Cookies & Crackers Industrial Baking Flour Animal Nutrition Industrial Products and Animal Nutrition Consumer Product Goods 2011 RevenuesS/. 635MM 417MM 417MM 293MM 614MM 321MM Weight in Sales Revenue CAGR 20052011 14.9% 9.8% 9.8% 6.9% 14.4% 7.5% 8.1% 8.4% 43.1% 17.8% 8.8% 19.6% 12.3% 9.6% 16.7% 9.2% 7.4% N/A Market CAGR 20052010 (1) (1) Market CAGRs for Edible Oil, Pastas, Laundry Detergents, Cookies and Industrial Flours consider Peru’s market growth per category. Source: MINAG, PRODUCE, INEI, Euromonitor, SNI Kantar World Panel, CCR Audit. PERU & INTERNATIONAL GROWTH GROWTH BY BUSINESS LINE (Millions of Soles) 2005 (Millions of Soles) 2005 2005 2011 CAGR CAGR 2005-2011: 2005-2011: Revenues: 14.6% 14.5% EBITDA: 15.2% CAGR 2005-2011: 10.8% CAGR 2005-2011: 13.1% 3,210 1,735 2,670 CAGR 2005-2011: 16.9% 152 Peru 277 2,658 CAGR 2005-2011: 19.6% 1,277 501 109 Peru 4,268 1,277 75.4% CAGR 2005-2011: 1,277 16.9% 501 2,670 Consolidated 1,887 321 1,277 Consumer Product Goods Industrial Products International Consumer Product Consolidated Goods2005 8.1% 24.6% 2011 4,256 CAGR 2005-2011: 19.6% 109 Consumer Product Goods Industrial Products 4,268 1,887 321 CAGR 2005-2011: Animal Nutrition 19.6% 1,277 501 nsumer Product Industrial Products Animal Nutrition 2005 91.9% Goods 2011 CAGR 2005-2011: 16.9% 1,046 International EBITDA: 15.2% CAGR 2005-2011: CAGR 13.0% 4,256 1,887 2011 CAGR CAGR 2005-2011: 2005-2011: 14.5% Revenues: 14.6% 2005-2011: 13.1% CAGR 2005-2011: 37.9% 2011 109 Consolidated 1,887 321 Industrial Animal Nutrition Products Animal Nutrition Consolidated 67.7% 26.5% 5.8% 62.5% 30.0% 7.5% OVERALL RESULTS LAST 5 QUARTERS LAST 5Q SALES (Millions&ofGROSS Soles) MARGIN Sales Gross Margin Gross Margin 993 1,000 (Millions of Soles) Sales 998 985 80% CAGR 2010-Last 12M: 6.9% 883 878 70% 60% 50% 33.9% 32.1% 32.0% 31.9% 40% 29.7% 11.9% 30% 20% LAST 5 QUARTERS EBITDA & EBITDA MARGIN (Millions of Soles) 0 1Q 10 2Q 10 EBITDA 3Q 10EBITDA Margin 4Q 10 10% OVERALL RESULTS 0% (Millions of Soles) 1Q 11 200 EBITDA 60.0% 168 167 149 27.3% 136 136 100 30.0% 16.9% 15.4% 17.0% 16.7% 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 13.8% 0 0.0% 1Q 11 CAGR 2010-Last 12M: 0.1% 27.5% EBITDA Margin SG&A/Marketing CAPEX (as % of Total Revenues) (Million of Soles / as a % of Total Revenues) DEBT & DEBT/EBITDA RATIO CURRENT RATIO & LEVERAGE (Million of Soles) 2.3% 2.7% 2.5% 0 1.4% EARNINGS PER SHARE EARNINGS PER SHARE (Soles) (Soles) CAGR 2010-Last 12M: 8.92% ROIC & ROE DIVIDENDS PER SHARE & DIVIDENDS PER SHARE & DIVIDEND DIVIDEND YIELD YIELD Dividends per Share 0.2000 Dividends Yield CAGR 2007-2011: 40.3% 0.1700 0.1287 0.1112 0.0491 1 ROIC is defined as Operating Profit minus Profit Sharing and Current Income Tax expense divided by Working Capital plus Net Fixed Assets plus Other Net Operating Assets. Where: -Working capital excludes debt, other accounts (without financial costs), and Current Assets available for sale. -Net fixed assets exclude non operating fixed assets. -Other net operating assets include software and brands. 2ROE is defined as the Net Earnings divided by average Last 12-Month Shareholders’ Equity. 7.8% 1.7% 4.7% 2.7% 0.0000 2007 2008 2009 2010 50.00% 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% As of May 31, 2012 Romero's Group 45% Inv. & Mutual Funds 10% Others 13% AFP's 32% 2008 (As of Dec 31) 2009 (As of Dec 31) 2010 (As of Dec 31) 2011 (As of Dec 31) 2008-2011 Growth % 1H11 1H12 1H11-1H12 Growth % Stock Price (S/.) 1.43 2.75 6.30 6.00 +320% 5.40 7.00 +29.6% IGBVL 7,049 14,167 23,375 19,473 176% 18,879 20,207 +7.0% Market Cap (MM US$) 386 806 1,900 1,885 +389% 1,664 2,220 +33.4% EBITDA Multiple 5.81 5.12 10.74 10.02 +72.5% 10.05 11.62 +15.6% 166,973 408,255 325,837 340,729 +104.1% 424,565 224,710 -47.1% 14.74 10.66 18.92 22.20 +34.3% FINANCIAL METRICS Daily average trading volume P/E Ratio 15.50 +5.2% 16.53 AVERAGE STOCK PRICE (S/.) VALUATION Common Shares Outs. (MM) Stock Price (as of Oct. 17th, 2012) 847 $2.81 Investment Shares Out. (MM) Stock Price (as of Oct. 17th, 2012) 7 $1.67 $2,391 MM Market Capitalization Net Debt (2011) $149 MM $2,540 MM Firm Value EBITDA (2011) $205 MM 12.41x Firm Value / EBITDA 2009 2010 2011 2012 COVERAGE Firm Stock Price (as of Oct. 17th, 2012) January 2009=100: • • • ALICORC1: ALICORI1: IGBVL: 502 410 286 EPS (Common) : S/. 0.39 P/E (Common) : 18.59 Dividend Yield : 2.65% Country • BCP • Inteligo • HSBC • Kallpa Securities • Larrain Vial • BBVA •BTGPactual Peru Peru USA Peru Chile Peru USA Target Price S/. 8.30 7.52 8.50 7.65 6.90 7.15 8.20 Recommendation Buy Buy Overweigh Neutral Maintain Neutral Buy Source: Bloomberg *As of October 17th Date Aug. 12 May. 12 Mar. 12 Aug. 11 Jun. 12 May. 12 July 12 PERU: CONSUMER BASKET STRUCTURE PERU: ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD SPENDING (Millions of Soles & % of Total Spending) Food at Home Food away from home (As a % of Total Annual Household Spending) Food at Home Other goods and services Education Food at Home Other goods and services Rent, Fuel and Electricity Education Transport and Communication Rent, Fuel and Electricity Food away from home Health 150,000 120,000 Food away from home Clothing and Footwear Health Furniture Clothing and Footwear Furniture Transport and Communication 130,000 Food at Home Other goods and services Food away from home Total Other goods and services CAGR (2005-2010): Total Household Spending Total 9.7% 5% 8% S/. 103,099 S/. 103,099 80,000 31% 5% (1) 100,000 110,000 8% 90,000 31% S/. 64,771 S/. 64,771 70,000 60,000 11% % 50,000 34.6% 31.3% 40,000 5% 13% 7% 10% 11% 13% 11.3% 34.6% (Millions of Soles) Alicorp Revenues AlicorpPeru Peru Revenues Alicorp Peru Revenues Alicorp Peru Revenues 2 12 1 1 CAGR (2005-2010): 1 1 Alicorp Peru Revenues 1 7.3% 1 1 3,000 1,000 1 900 3,000 2,500 1,0001 800 9001 700 2,000 2,500 8001 600 1,500 7001 2,000 500 6000 400 1,000 1,500 5000 300 11.1% 500 200 4000 1 S/. 2,809 925.7 1 S/. 2,809 925.7 1 1 1 1 652.1 S/. 1,754 652.1 S/. 1,754 1 0 1,000 0 0 100 300 20,000 11.1% 0 11.3% 10,000 0 12.9% 2000 0 500 9.8% 2005 2010 2005 2010 2005 2010 100 0 (1) Total Household Spending includes food (away and at home), health, education, rent, fuel, electricity, transport and 00 0 0 communication, clothing and footwear, furniture and other goods & services. 2005 2010 2005 2010 2005 2010 30,000 10% ALICORP PERU REVENUES 9.8% 31.3% 12.9% 7% and services include home and personal care, Other goods 11% tobacco, entertainment and travel and beauty expenses. HPC represents almost 75% of this category. HPC represents 6.5% of total Lima’s consumer basket. (“HPC”) Source: APOYO Consultoría, ENAHO-INEI ent Alicorp Peru Other players Alicorp Peru 7.3% 1.1% Other players Alicorp Peru Other players ALICORP PERU vs MARKET (Main Categories) (Thousands to MTs) Alicorp Peru Other players CAGR (2005-2010) Alicorp Peru (Volume) Market (Volume)749 685 749 2.1% 3.1% 4.5% 5.1% 12 406 90 148 2005 2005 2005 2010 2010 2010 113 214 Industrial Flour 199 90 165 67 67 285 119 1 67 Edible FlourOil 3 119 113 148 125 2005 2005 2005 2010 2010 2010 90 14Edible Oil 22 5 165 Pastas Edible Oil 119 148 2005 2010 36 199 199 6771 36 125 119 148 5667 1710 2005 2005 2005 2010 2005 2010 2010 2010 2005 2005 2005 47 Pastas 21 58 Cookies & Crackers Pastas Edible Oil71 56 113 125 2005 2010 Mature Categories 1 2 Edible Oil 3 4 Pastas Industrial Flour 1. 2. 2010 2010 2005 2010 710 Detergent 811 3 4 Laundry 69 2 5 6 17 10 2005 2010 2005 8 Cookies & Crackers Edible Oil 199 2 Pastas 9 10 406 56 117 117 17 50 50 125 285 67 67 10 10 2010 2005 2005 2005 912 5 67 Laundry Detergent Cookies & Crackers Pastas 117 36 7 749 165 71 71 117 36 36 113 50 90 749 749 685 36.6% 16.7% 165 56 17 113 685 50 16.8% 7.9% 71 36 2005 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2005 Cookies 11 12 12 714406& Crackers 8 10 613 11 Laundry Detergent 12 2005 13 Laundry Detergent Flour 2010 14 Cookies & Crackers 2005 2010 2005 2010 2005 2010 2005 2010 2005 2010 Participation (% of Total Volume) 28% 37% 64% 62% 46% 46% 14% 53% 27% 41% Market Share 60% 55% 48% 53% 45% 45% 25% 41% 22% 33% Industrial Flour and Cookies & Crackers shares were estimated from imports (Source: Produce) Edible Oil, Pastas and Laundry Detergent ere estimated from polls (Source: Kantar). Poll Methodology: 3,000 homes from Lima and 13 provinces. Deviation +/- 1.6% 1 285 Flour Laundry Laundry Detergent Detergent Cookies & Crackers Growth Categories 2010 285 285 Source: MINAG, PRODUCE, INEI, Euromonitor, SNI Kantar World Panel, CCR Audit. 2005 2005 13 13 9 22 Flour Flour La COMMODITY EXPOSURE (US$ x MT) PRECIO AC SOYA (YoY: T10CIF vs. PERU T11) (PRECIO ARGENTINA + FLETE) Soybean CFR Wheat CFR Soya CFR Trigo CFR 1,180 1,034 50.3% YoY 58.0% YoY Gross Margin: 1Q11: 28.1% GM 2Q11 27.3% GM 3Q11: 27.8% GM 4Q11: 27.1% 49.5% YoY 4.8% YoY 332 -6.4% YoY 31770.7% YoY 2009 2010 2011 14.1% YoY -8.6% YoY -2.0% YoY -3.9% YoY GM 1Q12: 26.8% GM 2Q12: 27.5% -12.9% YoY 8.6% YoY 2012 Source: Reuters 2011: FOREIGN EXCHANGE HEDGING STRATEGY AND EXCHANGE RATE PERFORMANCE Average Exchange Rate (In MM of US$ & S/. / US$) USD Exposure Total Hedging Average Exchange Rate 2.80 2.80 2.77 2.75 -2.2%84 YoY -2.7% YoY 88 102 -3.79% YoY 87 -0.5% YoY 80 80 79 70 58 -2.87% YoY -4.75% YoY 2.70 2.67 2.67 55 43 38 38 37 30 15 15 15 15 25 21 18 13 -8 %J hedging F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J 26% 35% 18% 187% 38% 54% 38% 42% 43% 31% 16% 18% 0% 0% 0% 0% -24% 20% 2011 2012 Fuente: SBS