Sierra Vista Outlook - Sierra Vista Business
Transcription
Sierra Vista Outlook - Sierra Vista Business
COCHISE COLLEGE PLATINUM SPONSOR GOLD SPONSORS SILVER SPONSORS Castle & Cooke Arizona, Inc. BRONZE SPONSOR MEDIA SPONSORS Table of Contents 1 REVIEW OF THE NATIONAL, STATE, AND LOCAL ECONOMY by Dr. Robert Carreira, Director, Center for Economic Research 3 SYNERGY OF PROGRESS by Charles P. Potucek, Sierra Vista City Manager 5 CITY OF SIERRA VISTA 7 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 13 EDUCATION 17 HEALTHCARE 18 POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHICS 20 EMPLOYMENT 24 COMMERCE 28 REAL ESTATE & CONSTRUCTION 32 BANKING & FINANCIAL SERVICES 33 MEXICO 36 FORT HUACHUCA 37 AGRICULTURE 39 TOURISM 42 RENEWABLE ENERGY 43 COMMUNITY RESOURCES 44 ABOUT THE CER C OV E R P H OTO S CITY OF SIERRA VISTA SIERRA VISTA HERALD/BISBEE DAILY REVIEW C O C H I S E C O L L E G E P R I N T S E RV I C E S KEITH RINGEY, COORDINATOR Sierra DESIGN & PUBLISHING www.sierrapub.com SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 Review of the National, State, and Local Economy Photo: City of Sierra Vista National During the recessionary years of 2008 and 2009, the national economy lost 8.7 million jobs. From January 2010 through January 2015, 11.2 million jobs were added. In 2014, 3.1 million jobs were created (up from 2.4 million in 2013). The national unemployment rate in 2014 was 6.2 percent (down from 7.4 percent in 2013). The seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment rate in January 2015 was 5.7 percent, down from 6.6 percent in January 2014. The nation’s Gross Domestic Product (the broadest measure of economic activity adding up the value of all goods and services produced in the economy) was up 2.4 Dr. Robert Carreira percent in 2014—the fifth consecutive year of growth since the end of the recession in Director Center for Economic 2009. GDP growth in 2014 was at its highest level since 2010. Research Building permits for new single-family homes nationwide were up 1.5 percent in 2014 Cochise College (following increases of 23.9 and 19.7 percent in 2012 and 2013, respectively). Permits in 2014 were up for the third consecutive year following declines in five of six years. Despite recent increases, the number of new home permits in 2014 was down 63 percent from the 2005 peak. According to the National Association of Realtors, existing single-family home sales by realtors nationwide were down 3.1 percent in 2014 (following a 9 percent jump in 2012 and an 8.6 percent increase in 2013). In 2014, the median home price nationwide was $208,500 (up 5.8 percent from 2013 and the highest level since 2007). Arizona Arizona gained 63,300 jobs in 2014 for job growth of 2.5 percent. Job creation was led by growth in the private sector, which added 60,100 jobs (2.8 percent). Government grew by 3,200 jobs (0.8 percent). In 2014, the statewide unemployment rate was 7 percent (down from 8 percent in 2013). The seasonally adjusted monthly rate in December 2014 was 6.7 percent (down from 7.6 percent in December the year prior). Arizona’s GDP grew 1.1 percent in 2013, following much stronger growth of 2.6 percent in 2011 and 3 percent in 2012. In 2013, Arizona’s GDP growth was 36th in the nation. Inflation-adjusted retail sales statewide were up 7.3 percent in 2013 and 3 percent in the first 11 months of 2014. Arizona’s restaurant and bar sales were up 2.2 percent in 2013 and 6.4 percent from January through November 2014. The state’s accommodation sales (hotel, motel, RV park, and other temporary lodging stays of less than 30 days) were up 0.4 percent in 2013 and 9.6 percent in the first 11 months of 2014. Building permits for new single-family homes statewide were down 5.2 percent in 2014 (on the heels of a 57.1 percent jump in 2012 and an 11.2 percent increase in 2013, following six consecutive years of decline). The number of new home permits in 2014 remained 78.6 percent below the 2005 peak. Home sales by realtors in Arizona were down 10.9 percent in 2014 (the third consecutive year of falling 1 2 SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 sales with declines of 10.6 and 5.4 percent in 2012 and 2013, respectively). Sales in 2014 were 27 percent below their 2005 peak. The median home price statewide was $194,000 in the fourth quarter of 2014 (up 5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2013). Cochise County Cochise County lost 600 jobs in 2014 for annual job growth of -1.7 percent. The government sector shed 325 jobs (-2.7 percent) while the private sector lost 275 jobs (-1.2 percent). Cochise County’s annual unemployment rate in 2014 was 8.3 percent (down from 8.8 percent in 2013). The seasonally adjusted monthly rate in December 2014 was 8 percent (down from 8.9 percent in December 2013). Cochise County’s GDP grew by 0.1 and 2.9 percent, respectively, in 2008 and 2009—the years the state and national economies went into the Great Recession. In 2010, the county saw GDP growth of 2.4 percent. Cochise County’s economy slipped into recession in 2011, with a drop in GDP of 0.7 percent. The countywide recession continued through 2012 and 2013 with GDP declines of 3.9 and 1.3 percent, respectively. Retail sales countywide were up 1.5 percent in 2013, but were down 2.3 percent in the first 11 months of 2014. Cochise County’s restaurant and bar sales were down 0.5 percent in 2013, but were up 1.4 percent from January through November 2014. Countywide accommodation sales were down 12.2 percent in 2013 and 0.5 percent in the first 11 months of 2014. New residential construction in Cochise County was up 29 percent in 2014—the first year of growth following eight consecutive years of decline. There were 209 new home permits issued countywide in 2014 (up from a record low of 162 in 2013 [with records back to 1990]). Despite the jump in 2014, the number of new home permits for the year was down more than 80 percent from the housing boom peak back in 2005. There were 1,409 homes sold by realtors in Cochise County in 2014 (down 1.3 percent from 1,428 in 2013—the highest level since 2007). Sales were up in four of six years from 2009 through 2014, following three consecutive years of double-digit declines. Home sales volume in 2014 was down by nearly a third from the 2005 peak. The median home price in Cochise County in 2014 was $118,000 (down 2.3 percent from 2013). The median price in 2014 was down nearly 40 percent from the 2007 peak and was well below levels seen a decade prior in 2004, prior to the housing market boom. In 2014, foreclosures accounted for 25.5 percent of home sales in Cochise County (down from 29.3 percent in 2013). Sierra Vista Sierra Vista saw an estimated loss of 230 jobs in 2014 for job growth of -1.3 percent. Sierra Vista’s annual unemployment rate in 2014 was 7.5 percent (down from 8 percent in 2013). In December 2014, the city’s seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment rate was 7.2 percent, down from 8.3 percent in December 2013. Sierra Vista’s retail sales were up 3.5 percent in 2013, but down 2.1 percent in the first 11 months of 2014. The city’s restaurant and bar sales were down 5.3 percent in 2013 and 0.1 percent from January through November 2014. Citywide Citywide accommodation sales were down 28.3 percent in 2013, but up accommodation sales 16.5 percent in the first 11 months of 2014. were down 28.3 percent In the Sierra Vista area there were 922 homes sold in 2014 (down 0.6 percent from 2013). The median home price in the Sierra Vista area in in 2013, but up 12.5 2014 was $133,500 (down 8.3 percent from 2013). In 2014, foreclosures percent in the first 11 accounted for 25.9 percent of home sales in the Sierra Vista area (down months of 2014. from 27.8 percent in 2013). SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 Synergy of Progress Since Sierra Vista City Council adopted its ‘Plan for Prosperity’ economic framework nearly two years ago, there has been notable progress toward economic improvements surrounding our key focus areas: eds, meds, feds. With the opening of Canyon Vista Medical Center, planned re-use of the old hospital by Cochise College, addition of several new restaurants, and continued investment by existing businesses into expansions and improvements, the Sierra Vista community is taking steps to move forward even during this challenging economic recovery period. In April 2015, the new state-of-the-art Canyon Vista Medical Center will open to the community and region. Replacing the former Sierra Vista Regional Health Center, this new facility will feature a Level 3 Trauma Center, expanded cardiology capabilities, two Charles P. Potucek helipads, an in-patient acute behavioral health unit, advanced radiology services, and a City Manager variety of other improvements. Corporate parent RegionalCare Hospital Partners has City of Sierra Vista committed over $100 million to improving healthcare infrastructure for Sierra Vista and Fort Huachuca. The expanded capacity will meet current and future growth both in the community and on the installation. The hospital has added or is actively recruiting specialists in orthopedics, sports medicine, surgery, cardiology, oncology, pediatrics, and adult behavioral health. All efforts are being made to integrate them with the Fort Huachuca medical community, as well, since the facility serves as the fort’s hospital. Adjacent to the new hospital is the first of two planned medical office buildings to help house the many specialty physicians to support Canyon Vista Medical Center. With the expansion of medical services through the partnership with RegionalCare, the city is well positioned to attract businesses, families, retirees, cross-border patients, and others who will contribute to the local economy. Through the generous donation by Legacy Foundation of Southeast Arizona (formerly Sierra Vista Regional Health Center Foundation) the 93,000-square-foot former hospital will be transformed into an education center for Cochise College’s healthcare students, training future nurses, medical and certified nursing assistants, respiratory therapists, EMTs, and paramedics. The facility may also eventually house some of the college’s community-outreach programs and the large kitchen is being considered for use in the college’s culinary arts program. This exciting re-use positions the community beautifully for future business growth connected to higher education. In addition, its central location helps give promise to eventually achieving the number one priority identified by residents in the 2012 ‘Dream Your City’ visioning process: establishing a walkable city center. The city council has already selected vacant state land adjacent Veterans Memorial Park for that center, which is just a block from the future addition to the Cochise College campus. Often overlooked as an economic development piece, the city launched a community branding effort in early 2015 with the help of North Star Destination Strategies—the industry leader in community branding and known throughout the United States for its ability to generate positive community growth. The brand, which will be developed from hundreds of data points collected by North Star, reflecting both internal and external perceptions, will aid in economic development by communicating Sierra Vista’s strengths to potential businesses, visitors, and residents. And knowing how critical the brand is to our forward 3 4 SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 momentum, the city is accelerating the brand development process, compressing a usual 12-month process into just eight. Once completed, the brand will be incorporated into marketing materials and citywide communications—and we’ll be encouraging Sierra Vista businesses, the Chamber of Commerce, and other organizations to incorporate the brand identity into their own marketing. Supporting Fort Huachuca is still very much a priority of the city and community. Since 2014, the city has partnered with Cochise County and the community-based Fort Huachuca 50 to fund a lobbyist to help develop and implement a strategy to elevate the level of awareness of the fort and its assets to key decision makers in Congress and the Pentagon. In early 2015, the Sierra Vista mayor led a small delegation of representatives from this partnership to Washington, D.C., to meet with members and key staff of the 114th Congress. With U.S. Senator John McCain assuming chairmanship of the Senate Armed Services Committee, and our own U.S. Congresswoman Martha McSally and fellow U.S. Congressmen from Arizona, Trent Franks and Ruben Gallego, serving on the House Armed Services Committee, the community is well positioned for a receptive ear at the federal level. The city took the lead in responding to the Army’s 2014 ‘Supplemental Programmatic Environmental Assessment’ of potential cuts on the installation due to sequestration, pulling together key community groups and ensuring everyone is speaking with one voice. That collaboration has developed into a group of community leaders who stand at the ready to add their voices to additional planned efforts to elevate the reputation of Fort Huachuca in coming months and years. Community partnerships and collaboration are a central theme of much of the progress of the past year, and the City of Sierra Vista has been pleased to be in a leadership role in moving our community forward. But it is only together, with one voice and a shared vision that we will see the fruits of our collective labor result in a thriving Sierra Vista economy. it is only together, with one voice and a shared vision that we will see the fruits of our collective labor result in a thriving Sierra Vista economy. SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 City of Sierra Vista Sierra Vista, the largest city in Cochise County, is at an elevation of 4,623 feet located along State Routes 90 and 92 approximately 75 miles southeast of Tucson, 190 miles southeast of Phoenix, 30 miles south of Interstate 10, and 35 miles north of the Mexican border. The founding of the city arose from the establishment of Fort Huachuca. Early ranchers, homesteaders, and business entrepreneurs settled and built around the army encampment in the late 1800s and Sierra Vista was eventually incorporated in 1956. In 1971, Fort Huachuca was annexed into the city. In addition to Fort Huachuca, the Sierra Vista area is home to several other government agencies including U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Bureau of Land Management, and U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Nearby cities include tourist destinations Tombstone and Bisbee. Sierra Vista is the retail hub of Cochise County, serving a commercial market of more than 110,000 people. Large retail chains include Wal-Mart, Target, Kmart, Sears, Hobby Lobby, Dillard’s, Marshall’s, Ross, Home Depot, Lowe’s, Staples, PetSmart, and Best Buy, serving customers from across Cochise County, neighboring Santa Cruz County, and across the U.S. border with Mexico. The city is home to The Mall at Sierra Vista—a one-story enclosed regional shopping mall. In recent years, the city’s restaurant industry has expanded considerably and now includes such large chains as Applebee’s, Buffalo Wild Wings, Chili’s, IHOP, Olive Garden, Outback Steakhouse, Panda Express, and Texas Roadhouse. A boom in commercial construction from 2005 through 2011 added several new hotels, restaurants, large retailers including a new Wal-Mart Supercenter, office complexes, and other businesses. In 2014, construction began on the new Canyon Vista Medical Center, scheduled to open in April 2015 replacing the city’s former Sierra Vista Regional Health Center. Since 2011, the area’s economy has been challenged by cuts in federal spending associated with Fort Huachuca and the winding down of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Economic developers have focused efforts toward diversification of the economy to lessen reliance on the defense industry, to include commercial application of defense-related specialties such as unmanned aerial systems and cyber-security. COST OF LIVING SIERRA VISTADOUGLAS MSA* TUCSON PHOENIX BULLHEAD FLAGSTAFF CITY LAKE HAVASU PRESCOTTPRESCOTT VALLEY YUMA 2010 97.8 96.4 100.6 114.8 N/A 111.7 103.6 101.1 2011 99.6 95.0 96.5 113.3 N/A 108.9 103.7 103.5 2012 102.5 95.5 96.8 111.6 91.9 104.3 98.6 105.2 2013 98.0 95.6 96.0 113.3 93.4 103.1 98.1 104.2 2014 97.3 97.0 96.2 117.9 93.8 100.4 97.9 101.3 N/A = data not available. *The Sierra Vista-Douglas MSA is a statistical area designation for all of Cochise County. Source: Council for Community and Economic Research (C2ER), Cost of Living Index. 5 6 SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 COST OF LIVING INDEX The Cost of Living Index, published by the Council for Community and Economic Research, compares costs of approximately 300 participating areas in all 50 states. The average for all participating places nationwide equals 100 and each participant’s index is read as a percentage of the average for all places. SIERRA VISTA/DOUGLAS MSA AREA COST OF LIVING COMPOSITE INDEX GROCERY ITEMS HOUSING 97.8 96.5 99.4 2010 UTILITIES TRANS PORTATION HEALTH CARE MISC. GOODS & SERVICES 97.4 104.0 95.9 95.5 2011 99.6 95.6 99.6 92.0 108.8 98.0 100.9 2012 102.5 97.8 102.8 103.4 106.6 99.5 102.7 2013 98.0 91.3 95.4 99.2 101.1 97.4 101.4 2014 97.3 94.7 93.6 102.8 102.6 96.5 98.1 Note: The Sierra Vista-Douglas MSA is a statistical area designation for all of Cochise County. Source: Council for Community and Economic Research (C2ER), Cost of Living Index. SIERRA VISTA TRANSACTION PRIVILEGE (SALES) TAX RATES COUNTY CITY OF AND STATE SIERRA VISTA CATEGORY TOTAL Privilege Tax 6.10% 1.75% 7.85% Use Tax – Utilities 6.10% 2.00% 8.10% Use Tax 5.60% 1.75% 7.35% Restaurant & Bar 6.10% 2.60% 8.70% Transient Lodging/Hotel/Motel 6.05% 5.50% 11.55% Utilities/Telecommunications 6.10% 2.00% 8.10% 0.03355 $0.02 $0.05355 Rental of Real Property —— 1.00% 1.00% Construction Contracting 6.10% 2.45% 8.55% Jet Fuel (per gal.) Note: Rates as of February 1, 2015. Source: Arizona Department of Revenue and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. SIERRA VISTA PROPERTY TAX RATES PER $100 ASSESSED VALUE (2014) DISTRICT City of Sierra Vista PRIMARY SECONDARY TOTAL 0.1136 Class 2: Class 3: Class 4: Class 5: Class 6: Class 7: Class 8: Class 9: 0.1136 Buena Elementary School District 2.8673 —— 2.8673 Buena High School District 1.7774 —— 1.7774 Cochise County Gen. Government* 2.6276 —— 2.6276 —— 0.1451 0.1451 Library* Flood Control* Cochise College* Fire District Assistance Tax* —— 0.2597 0.2597 2.0329 —— 2.0329 —— 0.1000 0.1000 School District Assistance Tax** 0.5089 —— 0.5089 TOTAL 9.9277 0.5048 10.4325 Note: Rates are established the third Monday in August. *Rate applies to all property in Cochise County. **Rate applies to all property in Arizona. Source: Cochise County Treasurer and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. PROPERTY TAX ASSESSMENT RATIOS Class 1: —— Mines, mining claim property, and standing timber; local telecommunications, utilities, pipelines, and oil and gas producing; and commercial and industrial real property not included in other classes (18.5 percent of cash value in 2015, scheduled to decline to 18 percent in 2016) Agricultural real property, golf courses, and vacant land (16 percent of cash value, scheduled to decline to 15 percent in 2016) Owner-occupied residential property (10 percent of cash value) Leased or rented residential property (10 percent of cash value) Railroads, private car companies, and airline flight property (21 percent of cash value) Noncommercial historic property, foreign trade zones, military reuse, environmental technology, and environmental remediation property (5 percent of cash value) Improvements to commercial historic property (1 percent of cash value for up to 10 years) Improvements to historic residential rental property (1 percent of cash value for up to 10 years) Possessor interests (1 percent of cash value for up to 10 years) SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 Economic Development Photo: RegionalCare Hospital Partners Local Organizations CITY OF SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT In 2013, the City of Sierra Vista established an Economic Development Department and began implementation of its new economic development framework approved by the city council, referred to as Plan for Prosperity. With city council direction, the department has been tasked with taking a leadership role in helping coordinate efforts of economic development community partners to improve overall services for current and future businesses. The department serves as the city’s point of contact for current and prospective businesses considering expansion or relocation to Sierra Vista. As of early 2015, the department was in the process of developing a formal business retention and expansion program to help existing businesses find ways to grow. In 2015, the city funded a community branding initiative, retaining services of a nationally-recognized firm. The new brand will be central to updating marketing and outreach materials designed to highlight advantages of doing business in Sierra Vista. The department serves as the city’s contact with the Arizona Commerce Authority in evaluating potential leads, and develops strategies designed to target businesses that fit primarily within the foundational industries identified in the Plan for Prosperity: eds, meds and feds (education, medical, and federal government). The department also carries out the city’s leadership role in the community partnership between Sierra Vista, Cochise County, and Fort Huachuca 50 to actively advocate for expanded missions at Fort Huachuca. For more information, visit www.SierraVistaAZ.gov. SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FOUNDATION The Sierra Vista Economic Development Foundation (SVEDF) has been incorporated as a nonprofit 501(c)(3) corporation since 1985. Its mission and purpose is to increase the economic strength of Sierra Vista and to diversify the region's economy through the provision of resources to existing businesses and recruitment of top-performing industries to the greater Sierra Vista area. SVEDF promotes community development through media exposure, to include serving as a spokesperson on economic operations and strategies at conferences throughout the region, and providing commentary on a variety of economic topics to various media sources; local business development, including a business enrichment program to help entrepreneurs deal with obstacles to success; provision of co-space for business startups with onsite counseling and financial assistance; recruitment of new companies to the Sierra Vista area, to include assistance in site selection, site certification, deal negotiation, and customized demographic reports; business support and resource referral, including personal counseling sessions on organizational issues, revenue reductions, and expansion plans; and the establishment and maintenance of partnerships with other agencies, the City of Sierra Vista, Cochise County, and the State of Arizona. For more information, visit www.svedf.org. 7 8 SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 SIERRA VISTA INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY Sierra Vista IDA is empowered to issue industrial revenue bonds to provide funds for financing or refinancing of the costs of acquisition, construction, improvement, rehabilitation, or equipping for qualified projects. Its interests include promotion of economic and industrial development, inducement of manufacturing, and development of low-income housing. In 1985, IDA formed the Sierra Vista Economic Development Foundation to promote industrial and commercial growth, and IDA became the principal nonprofit organization that provides financial assistance and leadership to stimulate development of qualified projects. In 2004, IDA established the Sierra Housing Resource Partner, Inc., a 501(c)(3) set up to develop low-income housing. In 2014, SHRP developed Crossing Point Villas, a 60 unit Low Income Housing Tax Credit community; and Crossing Point Homes, a 20 unit first-time home-buyer subdivision. Crossing Point Homes offers moderately priced two-story, three- and four-bedroom homes with down payment assistance for those who qualify. For more information, email frank@fwpc.net. SIERRA VISTA AREA CHAMBER OF COMMERCE With a membership of more than 600, the Sierra Vista Area Chamber is the largest business organization in Cochise County. Its mission is to promote business and provide leadership for the improvement of the community. The chamber’s goal is to support the local business community and to partner with other area agencies to help create a strong local economy, in particular the long term viability of Fort Huachuca. To this end, the chamber offers a wide variety of resources and marketing tools to help local businesses grow. Its main focus is on business retention and providing opportunities for area business owners and managers to network and promote their goods and services. The nonprofit organization, which is a self-funded 501(c)(6), is also active in the legislative arena. It acts as a voice on behalf of the business community and works to keep its members informed on local, state, and national issues. For more information, visit sierravistachamber.org. SIERRA VISTA METROPOLITAN PLANNING ORGANIZATION SVMPO, established in 2013, is the designated transportation planning organization for Sierra Vista and the surrounding urbanized area of Cochise County. SVMPO plans and coordinates surface transportation activities and improvements to maintain a comprehensive, cooperative, and continuing mulit-agency transportation planning program for the Sierra Vista region. For more information, visit www.svmpo.org. COCHISE COLLEGE CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH The CER provides economic information, analysis, and forecasting to help leaders in the public, private, and nonprofit sectors make informed decisions. For more information, see the ‘About the Center for Economic Research’ section of this publication or visit www.Cochise.edu/CER. COCHISE COLLEGE SMALL BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT CENTER SBDC is staffed with business counselors, analysts, and technology specialists who provide one-on-one confidential assistance for small businesses at every stage of development. SBDC provides counseling and assistance in planning, marketing, accounting, start-up, licensing, strategic planning, government procurement, technology, and sources of capital, with special initiatives in veterans’ assistance, clean technology, and government contracting. SBDC partners with U.S. Small Business Administration and Association of Small Business Development Centers to provide local access to nationwide resources. For more information, visit www.Cochise.edu/SBDC. SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA GOVERNMENTS ORGANIZATION SEAGO is a council of governments serving local and tribal governments in the four-county region (Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, and Santa Cruz counties) and is a designated Economic Development District (EDD) by U.S. Economic Development Administration. SEAGO’s EDD program assists distressed areas, planning regions, cities, and counties in economic development planning, policymaking, and implementation. As an EDD, SEAGO has responsibility for developing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS), a guide to economic development initiatives throughout the region. The CEDS process, which includes input from member entities, enables SEAGO members to apply for federal grant funding. For more information, visit www.SEAGO.org. SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WORKFORCE CONNECTION & ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC SECURITY Southeastern Arizona Workforce Connection (SAWC), a 501(c)(3) nonprofit corporation, in partnership with Arizona Department of Economic Security, offers free services to businesses and job seekers. Cochise County One Stops, with locations in Sierra Vista and Douglas, are staffed by SAWC and DES representatives providing no-cost business services to assist employers with advertising, hiring, employee development, business closure, and job announcements. In addition, One Stops provide job seekers with free preemployment preparation, training programs, job-search resources, and access to computers, printers, copiers, phone, fax, and internet. Veteran representatives are on staff and veterans receive priority service. For more information on SAWC, visit www.SEAZworkforce.org. For more information on DES, visit www.AZDES.gov. Recent Activities VISTA 2030 GENERAL PLAN In 2014, Sierra Vista voters ratified the city’s updated general plan, Vista 2030. The plan is a collection of goals and strategies that serve as the primary tool and blueprint for guiding the growth and development of the city over the next 10 years. It integrates ideas and desires of residents, businesses, and elected officials into a strategy for managing the city’s future, encompassing infrastructure, transportation, economic development, and quality of life. Comments provided by residents during the ‘Dream Your City’ visioning process, held in 2013, were incorporated into all 17 elements of the general plan. PLAN FOR PROSPERITY Commissioned by Sierra Vista City Council and published in 2013, the city’s Plan for Prosperity is an analysis of the community’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats supporting an economic development framework built on eight strategic objectives designed to grow and diversify Sierra Vista’s economy. Inclusive of both short- and long-term objectives, the plan emphasizes city-wide collaboration, elevation of existing assets, and building a firm foundation for future industries and jobs. Implementation for the plan is underway, relying on the city assuming a leadership role for coordinated economic development, which focuses on area anchor institutions: eds, meds and feds (education, medical, and federal government) for future growth. Central to the plan is a partnership between the city, Sierra Vista Economic Development Foundation, and the private-sector Fort Huachuca 50 organization. OUR FUTURE VISTAS – CITY COUNCIL STRATEGIC LEADERSHIP PLAN Since 2007, Sierra Vista City Council has developed biannual strategic leadership plans. Entitled Our Future Vistas, the document provides a vision for the future, supported by focus areas, goals, and objectives— all built around supporting the voter-approved general plan. The strategic plan guides budget investments and staff time allocated to programs, issues, and projects identified as priority items. The 2014-2016 plan is built on a larger 20-year plan and identifies nine areas of strategic focus, including natural resource management and environmental stewardship, regional partnerships, a strong relationship with Fort Huachuca, well-planned development, and economic diversity. The city council is scheduled to approve an updated two-year plan in mid-2015. For more information, visit www.SierraVistaAZ.gov. ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP To help protect such resources as Fort Huachuca and the San Pedro River, the city has developed several water conservation programs and actions. In 2013, the city was notified by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency that it was the first community in the nation to adopt the agency's WaterSense program for future residential development. WaterSense is a partnership program by EPA that seeks to protect the future of the nation's water supply by offering ways to use less water with water-efficient products, new homes, and services. Water conservation codes for all new development now require developers to use a variety of watersaving devices in new construction, to include waterless urinals in commercial buildings and recirculating pumps or on-demand devices for hot water in new residential construction. City codes also require new commercial developments to build on-site detention basins; eliminate turf in new commercial landscapes in favor of low-water-use plants; and limit turf in front yards of new homes to 200 square-feet. The city also partners with The Cochise Water Project by providing funding to expand rebates for replacing high flow toilets, turf replacement, and other programs. The city received several grants for public facilities in 2015 to install a number of water harvesting tanks and replace grass in front of city hall with 9 10 SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 artificial turf. In addition, the city is a joint funding partner with Fort Huachuca and Cochise County to support the ‘Water Wise’ program hosted by University of Arizona Cooperative Extension. Water Wise provides education and programs related to water conservation to residents and businesses. The city’s wastewater treatment facility also incorporates technology that results in recharge of nearly seven million gallons of water to the aquifer each year making it the largest water mitigation activity in the sub-watershed, according to city officials. For more information, visit www.SierraVistaAZ.gov. WEST END DEVELOPMENT Sierra Vista’s West End (west of Seventh Street to Buffalo Soldier Trail, and north of Golf Links Road to State Highway 90) has been the focus of redevelopment efforts by the city in recent years due to its potential to advance small business ownership and entrepreneurship. The area is the oldest community in the city and includes most of the original area that made up Sierra Vista when it was first incorporated in 1956. City staff has worked with residents, business owners, Fort Huachuca officials, West End commissioners, and other community leaders to develop strategies to revitalize the area and promote private investment and redevelopment. The city offers several incentives to encourage redevelopment in the West End, to include an expedited review process and flexibility regarding issues such as parking requirements, setbacks, and height limitations. The city also gives consideration to fee waivers for development in the West End. Commercial projects that replace existing structures automatically qualify for a development fee waiver. QUALITY OF LIFE Part of the city’s economic development efforts in recent years has been enhancement of quality of life factors to help attract new businesses and residents to the area. This includes parks, well designed and maintained streets, affordable neighborhoods, cultural and recreational opportunities, dining and shopping opportunities, successful commercial districts, open space, a system of bicycle and walking/multi-use paths throughout the city, and other amenities. Centennial Pavilion, located at the city’s main Veterans Park, provides a venue for performances ranging from intimate events to full-scale concerts. The Ethel H. Berger Center includes an active-adult lounge, activity rooms, dance studio, horseshoe pits, kitchen and dining room, and stage, and also serves as home to the Henry F. Hauser Museum. Oscar Yrun Community Center includes activity rooms, auditorium, arts and crafts studio, shuffleboard, and tennis courts, and provides the location of the Sierra Vista Visitor's Center. Sierra Vista Aquatic Center (‘The Cove’) offers beach entry, wave pool, children's lagoon with slide, diving pool, sunning decks, lap and competition lanes, two 150-foot tube water slides, party area, snack bar, warm water pool, and a walking path. The city’s Teen Center offers itself as a safe and fun place for youth to gather after school and on weekends for supervised activities and recreation. Preliminary plans are underway to eventually build a town center with a variety of retail, dining, and entertainment establishments. As of early 2015, the city was also planning for construction of additional multiuse paths to expand alternative transportation, as well as expansion and upgrading of transportation infrastructure. ARIZONA-SONORA BORDER MAYORS COALITION In 2013, Arizona-Sonora Border Mayors Coalition was established, which includes all seven incorporated cities and towns in Cochise County, along with several border cities and towns in northern Sonora. The coalition’s goal is to increase economic opportunities in the region by promoting cross-border tourism, border safety, border infrastructure, and employment. Major Assets SIERRA VISTA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT Sierra Vista Municipal Airport is a civilian/military joint-use airport serving Southeastern Arizona and Northern Mexico and sharing runways with Fort Huachuca’s Libby Army Airfield. The military owns and operates land and facilities on the south side of the airport including the control tower, while the city owns 75 acres on the north side including hangars and tie-down sites, which it leases out. Hangar access is available 24hours a day, seven days a week, through electrically operated security gates. Self-fueling services are also available. The airport has three runways: Runway 08-26 is 12,001 feet long by 150 feet wide and is constructed of reinforced concrete; Runway 12-30 is 5,365 feet long by 100 feet wide, constructed of asphaltic concrete; and Runway 03-21 is 4,300 feet long by 75 feet wide, also constructed of asphaltic concrete. Currently, there is no commercial air service to Sierra Vista Municipal Airport. For more information, visit www.SierraVistaAZ.gov. SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 FOREIGN TRADE ZONE Cochise County has industrial property designated as a foreign-trade zone (FTZ-139). Companies located in the FTZ can use special procedures that allow delayed or reduced duty payments on foreign merchandise. Other benefits include: • no duties or quota charges on re-exports; • deferred customs duties and federal excise tax on imports; • in cases where manufacturing results in a finished product that has a lower duty rate than the rates on foreign inputs (inverted tariff), the finished products may be entered at the duty rate that applies to its condition as it leaves the zone (subject to public interest considerations); • access to streamlined customs procedures such as weekly entry or direct delivery; and • exemption from state/local inventory taxes for foreign and domestic goods held for export. Merchandise in a zone may be assembled, exhibited, cleaned, manipulated, manufactured, mixed, processed, relabeled, repackaged, repaired, salvaged, sampled, stored, tested, displayed, and destroyed. Retail trade is prohibited in the zone. Before a firm may use the FTZ, it must obtain approval from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) for ‘activation’ of the space to be used, must meet CBP requirements for security and inventory control, and is responsible for all fees associated with activating and running the site. For more information, contact Sierra Vista Economic Development Foundation at hollism@svedf.org. Incentives For more information on these and other incentives, visit www.AzCommerce.com. ADDITIONAL DEPRECIATION Accelerates depreciation schedules for prospective acquisitions of commercial personal property ANGEL INVESTMENT State income tax credit for capital investments in small businesses certified by Arizona Commerce Authority COMMERCIAL/INDUSTRIAL SOLAR State income tax credit for installation of solar energy devices in business facilities COMPUTER DATA CENTER PROGRAM Transaction privilege tax and use tax exemptions at state, county, and local levels on qualifying purchases of computer data center equipment FOREIGN TRADE ZONE Up to 80 percent reduction in state real and personal property taxes for businesses located in a zone or subzone HEALTHY FOREST Incentives for certified businesses primarily engaged in harvesting, processing, or transporting qualifying forest products JOB TRAINING Reimbursable grants up to 75 percent of eligible training expenses for employers creating new jobs LEASE EXCISE Redevelopment tool to initiate development by reducing a project's operating costs by replacing real property tax with an excise tax PRIVATE ACTIVITY BONDS Securities issued by or on behalf of a local government to provide debt financing for projects used for a trade or business 11 12 SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 QUALIFIED ENERGY CONSERVATION BONDS Tax credit bonds originally authorized by Tax Extenders and Alternative Minimum Tax Relief Act of 2008 QUALIFIED FACILITY Refundable state income tax credit for eligible companies making capital investment to establish or expand qualified facilities QUALITY JOBS Up to $9,000 state income or premium tax credits spread over three-year period for each net new quality job RENEWABLE ENERGY TAX INCENTIVE Up to 10 percent refundable state income tax credit and 75 percent reduction on real and personal property taxes for companies engaged in the solar, wind, geothermal, and other renewable energy industries RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT State income tax credit for increased research and development activities SALES TAX EXEMPTIONS FOR MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT Sales tax exemption for various machinery or equipment SMALL BUSINESS INNOVATION RESEARCH GRANT Competitive grant for small businesses to explore technological potential and commercialization SMALL BUSINESS TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER GRANT Funding opportunities to meet national scientific and technological challenges WORK OPPORTUNITY Federal tax credit for hiring individuals from groups consistently faced with significant barriers to employment SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 Education Primary and Secondary Education SIERRA VISTA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT SVUSD consists of one high school, one middle school, and six elementary schools. For more information, visit www.SVUSD68.org. FORT HUACHUCA ACCOMMODATION SCHOOLS FHAS consists of one middle and two elementary schools located on Fort Huachuca. FHAS are Arizona public schools under the jurisdiction of Arizona Department of Education. As such, enrollment is not limited to military personnel or those associated with the fort. For more information, visit www.FtHuachuca.K12.Az.US. CHARTER SCHOOLS In addition to SVUSD and FHAS, Sierra Vista also has four charter schools: Center for Academic Success #1 and Center for Academic Success #5 (www.cas-schools.com), The Berean Academy (berean-academy.com), and PPEP-TEC Colin L. Powell Learning Center (www.ppeptechs.org). Imagine Charter School at Sierra Vista and Presidio de las Sierras School closed at the end of the 2014 school year. DISTRIBUTION OF PER PUPIL SPENDING Total SIERRA VISTA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT PEER ARIZONA UNITED STATES $6,772 $7,187 $7,496 $10,658 Classroom Dollars $3,645 $3,779 $4,031 $6,520 Non-classroom Dollars $3,127 $3,408 $3,465 $4,138 Administration $822 $764 $746 $1,138 Plant Operations $833 $921 $924 $1,015 Food Service $317 $364 $396 $412 Transportation $345 $394 $369 $452 Student Support $466 $561 $582 $593 Instruction Support $344 $404 $448 $528 Note: Data for the Sierra Vista Unified School District, peer districts, and Arizona are from 2013; national figures are from 2011. Source: Arizona Office of the Auditor General. 13 14 SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT 2012 2013 2014 Sierra Vista Unified School District 5,562 5,515 5,467 Bella Vista Elementary School (K-6) 376 408 383 1,968 1,924 1,907 Carmichael Elementary School (pre-K-6) Buena High School (9-12) 409 372 360 Huachuca Mountain Elementary School (K-6) 569 589 583 Joyce Clark Middle School (formerly SV Middle School) (7-8) 751 759 767 Pueblo Del Sol Elementary School (K-6) 633 621 643 Town & Country Elementary School (K-6) 400 391 372 Village Meadows Elementary School (K-6) Fort Huachuca Accommodation District Colonel Johnston Elementary School (pre-K-2) 456 451 452 1,015 1,038 1,056 377 382 417 Colonel Smith Middle School (6-8) 317 316 308 General Myer Elementary School (3-5) 321 340 331 1,547 1,413 1,228 464 420 374 Charter Schools The Berean Schools Academy (K-12) Center for Academic Success #5 (K-5) 298 313 305 Center for Academic Success #1 (9-12) 128 135 98 Imagine Charter School at Sierra Vista (K-8) 505 356 289 PPEP-TEC Colin L. Powell Learning Center (9-12) 62 80 75 Presidio de las Sierras School (K-8) 90 109 87 Note: Figures reflect enrollment as of October 1 of each school year. Source: Arizona Department of Education and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. ARIZONA A-F LETTER GRADE ACCOUNTABILITY SYSTEM (2014) LETTER GRADE ACCOUNTABILITY SYSTEM Sierra Vista Unified School District B Buena High School (9-12) B Joyce Clark Middle School (6-8) B Bella Vista Elementary (K-5) B Carmichael Elementary (K-5) B Huachuca Mountain Elementary (K-5) A Pueblo del Sol Elementary (K-5) A Town & Country Elementary (K-5) B Village Meadows Elementary (K-5) B Fort Huachuca Accommodation District B Colonel Smith Middle School (6-8) B General Myer Elementary School (3-5) B Colonel Johnston Elementary School (pre-K-2) A Charter Schools The Berean Academy (K-12) B Center for Academic Success #1 (9-12) A-ALT PPEP-TEC Colin L. Powell Learning Center (9-12) B-ALT Imagine Charter School at Sierra Vista (K-8) B Center for Academic Success #5 (K-5) A Presidio de las Sierras School (K-8) B Source: Arizona Department of Education. Arizona A-F Letter Grade Accountability System assigns a grade with respect to the school’s performance on Arizona's Instrument to Measure Standards (AIMS) and how much students grow academically each year. Other factors include dropout rate, graduation rate, and English language learner reclassification rate (as applicable). For alternative schools, accommodation schools, extremely small schools, and K-2 schools, unique characteristics are taken into account. Ratings follow the traditional academic letter grade system of A=excellent, B=above average, C=average, D=needs improvement, and F=failing. For alternative schools, the grade is further designated with – ALT. SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 STUDENT AND TEACHER MEASURES (2013) SIERRA VISTA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT PEER ARIZONA 94% 94% 94% Attendance Rate Graduation Rate (2012) 89% 82% 77% Poverty Rate (2012) 18% 15% 25% Students per Teacher Average Teacher Salary 19.5 16.5 18.3 $45,159 $40,197 $45,264 Average Years Teacher Experience 12.0 11.1 10.9 Percentage of Teachers in First 3 Years 11% 15% 19% Source: Arizona Office of the Auditor General. Postsecondary Education COCHISE COLLEGE Cochise College is a two-year community college with campuses in Sierra Vista and Douglas and learning centers in Benson, Willcox, and at Fort Huachuca. The college also offers classes online and in neighboring Santa Cruz County. Cochise College offers two-year degree and certificate programs in a variety of fields, non-credit personal enrichment classes, GED, English Language Acquisition, workforce training, and numerous other learning opportunities through its Center for Lifelong Learning, Adult Education Center, and Small Business Development Center. The college’s Center for Economic Research tracks trends in the local economy and publishes local economic research. The college’s athletic programs draw students nationally and internationally. In 2015, the Legacy Foundation of Southeast Arizona and Cochise College reached an agreement that will result in donation of the 93,000-square-foot, former Sierra Vista Regional Health Center facility to the college upon relocation of medical services to the new Canyon Vista Medical Center in April 2015. Cochise College plans to use the facility as a healthcare education center for its healthcare students, including future nurses, medical and certified nursing assistants, respiratory therapists, EMTs, and paramedics, as well as to offer community-based outreach services. Cochise College is accredited by the Higher Learning Commission of the North Central Association. For more information, visit www.Cochise.edu. SIERRA VISTA EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT 40% 2000 35% 20112013 30% 25% 20% 15% 12.5% 7.5% Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree Associate Degree 20.2% 18.2% 12.8% 10.9% Note: Population 25 years and older. Source: U.S. Census Bureau (20112013 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates) and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. 0% 27.3% Some College 32.1% NO DEGREE United States High School grad or equivalent 9th to 12th grade Arizona 20.4% 22.8% Cochise County NO DIPLOMA Sierra Vista 5% 5.3% BACHELOR’S DEGREE OR HIGHER 2.8% 32.7% 23.6% 27.2% 29.1% HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATE OR HIGHER Less than 9th grade 93.3% 86.4% 85.8% 86.3% 3.9% 10% 3.2% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Note: Population 25 years and older. Source: U.S. Census Bureau (Census 2000 and 2011-2013 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates) and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. 15 16 SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA (UA) SIERRA VISTA UA Sierra Vista offers upper-division courses for students to complete undergraduate degree programs in cooperation with Cochise College and other Arizona community colleges. Undergraduate degree programs are offered in anthropology, commerce, computer science, early childhood education, elementary education, English, government and public service, history, informatics, intelligence studies, Latin American studies, mathematics, network administration, and psychology. Undergraduate degree programs in human services, supervision, and family studies and human development, as well as graduate degree programs in educational technology and secondary education, are offered online. UA Sierra Vista is a commuter campus with schedules designed to accommodate working adults and returning students. For more information, visit www.UAS.Arizona.edu. WAYLAND BAPTIST UNIVERSITY Wayland Baptist University has campus locations in Sierra Vista and on Fort Huachuca, catering to working adults to include military, border patrol, and other government employees. Undergraduate degree programs are offered in management, business administration, computer information systems, teacher education, justice administration, human services, Christian ministry, and occupational education. Graduate degree programs are offered in management, business administration, Christian ministry, and public administration. For more information, visit www.WBU.edu. EMBRY-RIDDLE AERONAUTICAL UNIVERSITY Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University on Fort Huachuca offers undergraduate degree programs in aviation business administration, aviation maintenance, professional aeronautics, and technical management as well as graduate degree programs in aeronautical science and business administration in aviation. For more information, visit www.ERAU.edu. COCHISE COLLEGE TWO-YEAR DEGREE PROGRAMS Administration of Justice Agriculture Automotive Technology Avionics Technology Biology Building Construction Technology Business Administration Business Management Chemistry Communications Computer Information Systems Computer Programming Computer Science Culinary Arts Cybersecurity Early Childhood Care And Education Education Elementary Education Economics Electronics Technology Engineering English Equine Science and Management Exercise Science, Health and Physical Education, Recreation and Wellness Fine ArtsFire Science Technology General Requirements General Studies Humanities Intelligence Operations Studies Journalism and Media Arts Logistics Supply Chain Management Mathematics Media Production Arts Music Network Technology Paramedicine Philosophy Physics Professional Administrative Assistant Professional Pilot Technology Psychology Registered Nurse Respiratory Therapy Social Sciences Social Work Theatre Arts Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Flight Operator Unmanned Aircraft Systems and Operations Unmanned Aircraft Systems Technician Welding Technology SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 Healthcare Photo: Sierra Vista Herald/Bisbee Daily Review Overview In addition to Canyon Vista Medical Center, described in detail below, Sierra Vista is home to Raymond W. Bliss Army Health Center on Fort Huachuca (RWBACH.Huachuca.AMEDD.Army.mil), Veterans Administration Sierra Vista Community Based Outpatient Clinic (www.Tucson.VA.gov), and numerous private-practice physicians and healthcare providers. Cochise County Health and Social Services (www.Cochise.Az.gov), with a location in Sierra Vista, offers preventative services and resources. Canyon Vista Medical Center In 2013, Sierra Vista Regional Health Center became part of the RegionalCare Hospital Partners network. As part of the merger, RegionalCare broke ground on a new 175,000-square-foot, 100-bed hospital in Sierra Vista, scheduled to open in April 2015 as Canyon Vista Medical Center, replacing the former SVRHC. Canyon Vista’s 100 beds is an increase from the former SVRHC’s 88, with all the rooms private. The new hospital will also include the addition of 15 inpatient psychiatric beds—a service not offered by the previous SVRHC. RegionalCare has committed $18 million to recruit 25 physicians over seven years and expects to hire an additional 100 employees once the new facility is opened. Services will continue to include cardiac catheterization lab, cardiopulmonary services, cardiac rehabilitation, Carter Imaging Center, case management, critical care, diagnostic imaging, emergency room, hospice, laboratory, maternity, medical surgical services, nutrition and HOSPITAL MILEAGE CHART food services, orthopeCopper Northern Canyon dics, sports medicine, Queen Holy Cochise Northwest Cochise Vista St. St. Tucson Tucson University University Benson Community Cross Community Medical Regional Medical Joseph’s Mary’s Medical Heart Medical Physician outpatient surgery cenHospital Hospital Hospital Hospital Center Hospital Center* Hospital Hospital Center Hospital Center Hospitals 0 52 75 37 67 72 35 45 49 49 58 48 43 ter, medical telemetry, Benson Hospital 52 0 91 86 118 22 27 95 100 99 108 99 94 pediatrics, pharmacy, Copper Queen Community Hospital Holy Cross Hospital 75 91 0 110 84 111 64 72 67 73 75 70 65 pulmonary rehabilita- Northern Cochise Community Hospital 37 86 110 0 103 72 71 80 85 84 93 84 79 tion, rehabilitation, sur- Northwest Medical Center 67 118 84 103 0 137 94 21 16 18 11 15 25 72 22 111 72 137 0 47 115 120 119 128 118 114 gical services, wound Cochise Regional Hospital 35 27 64 71 94 47 0 72 77 77 86 76 71 care, and a family health Canyon Vista Medical Center* St Joseph’s Hospital 45 95 72 80 21 115 72 0 10 3 11 6 8 clinic located in Tomb- St. Mary’s Hospital 49 100 67 85 16 120 77 10 0 9 8 5 10 49 99 73 84 18 119 77 3 9 0 8 4 8 stone providing treat- Tucson Medical Center 58 108 75 93 11 128 86 11 8 8 0 5 10 ment of acute and Tucson Heart Hospital University Medical Center 48 99 70 84 15 118 76 6 5 4 5 0 5 chronic diseases, well University Physician Hospitals 43 94 65 79 25 114 71 8 10 8 10 5 0 woman exams, well *Formerly Sierra Vista Regional Health Center. Source: Cochise College Center for Economic Research. child checks, vaccinations, school and CDL physicals, EKGs, spirometry, free blood pressure checks, and treatment of non-emergent trauma. Helicopter services and ground transportation will continue, along with Trauma Telemedicine, which provides a real-time connection to trauma doctors at the University Medical Center in Tucson. The new facility is expected to expand emphasis on outpatient services. For more information, visit CanyonVistaMedicalCenter.com. 17 18 SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 Population & Demographics Photo: City of Sierra Vista The population of Sierra Vista as of July 2014 was 44,286. As the economic hub of Cochise County, the city’s daytime population is higher than indicated by population estimates. Sierra Vista’s retail market serves an estimated population of more than 110,000. The city’s population includes Fort Huachuca as a result of annexation of the fort in 1971. As of the 2011-2013 American Community Survey, 27.6 percent of Sierra Vista’s population ages 18 and older are civilian veterans of the military, more than three times the national level. This is largely due to the number of Department of the Army civilian positions at Fort Huachuca, as well as defense contracting personnel, many of whom are former members of the military. Also, the large number of retirees in the area has increased the number of civilian veterans, since many retirees once served in the armed forces though perhaps not in connection with Fort Huachuca. POPULATION SIERRA VISTA 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 COCHISE COUNTY ARIZONA POPULATION GROWTH POPULATION GROWTH POPULATION GROWTH 32,983 37,775 43,888 45,098 45,794 45,303 44,286 —— 14.5% 16.2% 2.8% 1.5% -1.1% -2.2% 97,624 117,755 131,346 130,537 130,752 130,906 129,628 —— 20.6% 11.5% -0.6% 0.2% 0.1% -1.0% 3,665,228 5,130,632 6,392,017 6,438,178 6,498,569 6,581,054 6,667,241 —— 40.0% 24.6% 0.7% 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% Note: Growth rates shown for 2000 and 2010 reflect preceding 10-year period; rates for 2011 forward are annual. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Arizona Office of Employment and Population Statistics, and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 POPULATION PROJECTIONS YEAR SIERRA VISTA HISPANIC/LATINO POPULATION COCHISE COUNTY 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . .49,399 . . . . . . . . .142,398 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . .54,303 . . . . . . . . .157,693 2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . .59,333 . . . . . . . . .173,377 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . .65,261 . . . . . . . . .192,301 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 19.4% 32.4% Sierra Vista Cochise County Source: Arizona Office of Employment and Population Statistics. SIERRA VISTA AGE GROUP DISTRIBUTION 2000 7.7% 7.1% 6.9% 8.2% 9.0% 15.4% 13.8% 11.0% 4.7% 4.2% 7.1% 4.1% 0.9% Under 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and over 2010 7.5% 6.4% 5.6% 7.3% 8.7% 16.9% 11.9% 11.3% 4.9% 4.8% 8.0% 4.9% 1.7% 16.3% Arizona United States Note: The U.S. Census Bureau considers Hispanic an ethnicity, not a race; thus, there is no separate racial classification for Hispanic. According to the Census Bureau, people identifying themselves as Hispanic may be of any race. Source: U.S. Census Bureau (Census 2010) and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. SIERRA VISTA RACIAL COMPOSITION White 74.5% Black/African American 9.0% Other 10.7% Source: U.S. Census Bureau (Census 2000 and Census 2010) and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. Native Hawaiian/ Pacific Islander 0.6% INCOME 29.6% American Indian/ Alaska Native 1.1% Asian 4.1% Note: Discrepancies are due to rounding. The U.S. Census Bureau considers Hispanic an ethnicity, not a race; thus, there is no separate racial classification for Hispanic. According to the Census Bureau, people identifying themselves as Hispanic may be of any race. Source: U.S. Census Bureau (Census 2010) and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 POVERTY LEVEL $40,000 $30,000 20% MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME Sierra Vista MEDIAN FAMILY INCOME Cochise County Arizona $27,884 $24,961 $27,450 $23,043 $57,317 $63,784 $69,186 $53,203 $48,546 $52,176 $0 $58,040 $10,000 $44,103 $20,000 PER CAPITA INCOME 15% 10% United States Note: All figures expressed in 2013 dollars. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011-2013 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. 5% 0% 14.1% 18.9% 18.7% 15.9% SIERRA VISTA COCHISE COUNTY ARIZONA UNITED STATES Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2011-2013 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates) and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. 19 20 SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 Employment Employment Outlook The largest threat to labor market improvement in Cochise County comes from defense budget cuts impacting Fort Huachuca, which are the natural upshot of winding down wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. While the rest of the state and nation suffered through severe effects of the Great Recession in 2008 and 2009, Cochise County was buffered from the worst of it due to increased defense spending on the fort and its missions, along with indirect and induced impacts of that spending. Those increases were principally tied to the wars. Defense cuts are likely to continue to hinder labor market improvement in Sierra Vista and Cochise County. On the upside, threats emerging from the Middle East drawing a U.S. military response in late 2014 and into 2015 may cause national policymakers to reconsider levels of military spending reductions, which could impact military intelligence, unmanned aerial systems, and cyber-security missions at Fort Huachuca. Depending on the nature and duration of U.S. involvement in the region, the fort may see drawdown efforts level off, or may even see an uptick in activity given the relevancy of the fort’s missions to counterterrorism and related efforts. Aside from recent U.S. military action in the Middle East and the potential that creates for increased defense spending, the majority of defense related cuts impacting Fort Huachuca have likely already occurred. From 2009 through 2014, Fort Huachuca lost 2,350 fulltime equivalent jobs (permanently assigned active duty military, civil servants, non-appropriated fund workers, and average daily number of students assigned for training; this number does not include defense contractors). The bulk of those reductions came from the relocation of units from the fort and a drop in the number of intelligence students trained. The fort’s average UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%) SIERRA VISTA 2010 5.3 2011 7.8 2012 7.7 2013 8.0 2014 7.5 2014 (Dec) 7.2 COCHISE COUNTY 8.8 8.8 8.3 8.8 8.3 8.0 ARIZONA 10.4 9.4 8.3 8.0 7.0 6.7 SIERRA VISTA LABOR MARKET DATA UNITED STATES 9.6 8.9 8.1 7.4 6.2 5.6 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Arizona Office of Employment and Population Statistics, and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. 2010 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE JOB EMPLOY- UNEMPLOY- JOB GROWTH MENT MENT GAINS RATE 19,562 18,519 1,043 -185 -1.0 2011 21,143 19,501 1,642 982 5.3 2012 20,548 18,974 1,574 -527 -2.7 2013 19,450 17,885 1,565 -1,089 -5.7 2014 19,077 17,655 1,422 -230 -1.3 Source: Arizona Office of Employment and Population Statistics and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 daily student load declined 35 percent from more than 3,200 in 2010 to approximately 2,100 in 2014. As of 2014, the average daily student load was below the level it was in 2000 and 2001, before the 9/11 terrorist attacks and subsequent buildup. Fort Huachuca adjusted to the war-related increases in students by hiring contractors to provide training. As student numbers have dropped, contracting jobs have been eliminated. The eight largest defense contractors in Cochise County lost nearly 465 jobs from 2012 to 2013 alone. When factoring in defense contractors, the total number of Fort Huachuca-related jobs lost from 2009 through 2014 is likely in the range of 3,000 to 4,500, making significant further cuts unlikely, including reductions related to the proposed Army 2020 Force Structure Realignment. One factor that will help the local labor market is the new, 100-bed hospital in Sierra Vista (Canyon Vista Medical Center) scheduled to open in April 2015. During construction, the new hospital gave a boost to employment in the local construction industry, as well as struggling area hospitality industries as specialized work crews were brought in for the project. Once open, it is estimated the new hospital will employ 100 additional workers. In the longer run, the new hospital will serve as an economic development asset to lure new businesses and retirees to the area, which will assist in labor market improvement. SIERRA VISTA OCCUPATIONS SIERRA VISTA CLASSES OF WORKERS Sales and Office 23.1% Private Wage and Salary Management, Business, Science, and Arts Service Government 63.3% 31.2% 40.8% 23.7% 6.2% Production, Transportation, and Material Moving 5.3% 6.2% Unpaid Family Workers 0.2% Natural Resources, Construction, and Maintenance Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2011-2013 American Community Survey 3Year Estimates) and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2011-2013 American Community Survey 3Year Estimates) and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. INDUSTRIES IN SIERRA VISTA (BY SHARE OF WORKFORCE) Public Admin 20.8% Other 22.5% Education Services, Health Care, & Social Assistance 18.3% 14.3% 10.0% Retail Trade Self Employed Prof, Scientific, Mgmt, Admin, & Waste Mgmt 14.1% Arts, Entertainment, Recreation, Accommodation, & Food Svc Note: Includes only industries accounting for at least 5 percent of the workforce; industries accounting for less than 5 percent are grouped in the category “other.” Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2011-2013 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates) and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. 21 22 SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 SIERRA VISTA’S TOP EMPLOYERS (2014) FULLTIME EQUIVALENT EMPLOYER EMPLOYEES* U.S. Army Fort Huachuca 7,874 Sierra Vista Unified School District #68 690 General Dynamics Information Technology 610 Sierra Vista Regional Health Center 466 Northrop Grumman Corporation 450 City of Sierra Vista 386 ManTech International 385 Cochise College 323 Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. 264 Raytheon Intelligence, Information and Services 235 TASC, Inc. 172 Lawley Automotive Group 162 Cochise County 157 Life Care Center of Sierra Vista 115 AIRES LLC 95 Sulphur Springs Valley Electric Cooperative Inc. 95 Cochise Private Industry Council 88 Lowe's of Sierra Vista 88 KE&G Construction, Inc. 68 United States Post Office 65 *A fulltime equivalent (FTE) employee equals one fulltime employee or two part-time employees. For employers with multiple site locations, the number of FTE employees reflects only those employees reporting to work in Sierra Vista. Note: This list includes only those employers who responded to the CER’s annual top employer survey. Source: Cochise College Center for Economic Research. SIERRA VISTA AREA BUSINESS ESTABLISHMENTS BY EMPLOYMENT-SIZE CLASS (2012) Number of establishments by employment-size class TOTAL 1-4 5-9 10-19 20-49 Accommodation & Food Services INDUSTRY 106 27 14 23 29 50-99 100-249 250-499 500-999 12 1 0 0 Admin., Support, Waste, & Remediation 67 39 14 6 6 1 0 0 1 Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 12 6 3 0 2 1 0 0 0 Construction 86 43 18 15 7 3 0 0 0 Educational Services 20 5 6 3 6 0 0 0 0 Finance & Insurance 62 41 12 6 2 1 0 0 0 Health Care & Social Assistance 168 61 50 33 16 5 2 0 1 Information 17 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 Management of Companies & Enterprises 6 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 Manufacturing 15 10 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 Mining, Quarrying & Oil & Gas Extraction 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Services (except Public Administration) 102 58 27 14 3 0 0 0 0 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 67 18 10 10 8 5 2 0 120 Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 67 44 17 5 1 0 0 0 0 Retail Trade 179 65 53 34 15 6 5 1 0 Transportation & Warehousing 25 15 3 4 2 1 0 0 0 Utilities 6 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 Wholesale Trade TOTAL 14 9 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1,073 501 245 162 106 41 13 3 2 Note: Includes ZIP codes 85635, 85636, and 85650. Source: U.S. Census Bureau and the Cochise College Center for Economic Research. SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 SIERRA VISTA AREA EMPLOYERS, EMPLOYEES, AND PAYROLL Employer Business Establishments Number of Employees* Annual Payroll ($1,000) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1,127 15,925 493,543 1,089 15,068 492,851 1,091 15,655 528,772 1,107 15,706 508,471 1,073 15,418 494,531 *Paid employees for pay period including March 12. Note: Includes ZIP codes 85635, 85636, and 85650. Does not include government sector. Source: U.S. Census Bureau and the Cochise College Center for Economic Research. MEDIAN ANNUAL WAGES (2013) MEDIAN HOURLY WAGES (2013) $30.00 $60,000 $25.00 $50,000 $20.00 $40,000 $15.00 $30,000 $10.00 $20,000 $ 5.00 $10,000 $20.02 $16.58 $16.43 $16.87 $41,658 Sierra Vista $34,494 $34,167 Cochise County Arizona $35,090 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 Cochise County Arizona United States Source: U.S. figures are reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. State and county figures are reported by Arizona Office of Employment and Population Statistics. City figures are estimated by the Cochise College Center for Economic Research using a census ratio model. Sierra Vista NON-FARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (COCHISE COUNTY) 2014 2013 CHANGE Total Non-farm 34,150 34,750 -600 -1.7 Total Private % CHANGE 22,375 22,650 -275 -1.2 Goods Producing 1,675 1,725 -50 -2.9 Construction* 1,150 1,175 -25 -2.1 Manufacturing 525 550 -25 -4.5 Service-Providing 32,475 33,025 -550 -1.7 20,700 20,925 -225 -1.1 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 5,900 5,950 -50 -0.8 375 -25 -6.7 Private Service-Providing Information Financial Activities 350 1,025 975 50 5.1 Professional and Business Services 4,000 4,225 -225 -5.3 Educational and Health Services 4,775 4,725 50 1.1 Leisure and Hospitality 3,750 3,750 0 0.0 Other Services 900 925 -25 -2.7 11,775 12,100 -325 -2.7 Federal Government 5,250 5,525 -275 -5.0 State and Loca Government 6,525 6,575 -50 -0.8 Government United States Source: U.S. figures are reported by the U.S. Department of Labor. State and county figures are reported by the Arizona Office of Employment and Population Statistics. City figures are estimated by the Cochise College Center for Economic Research using a census ratio model. *Includes mining. Note: Numbers are rounded to the nearest 25. Discrepancies are due to rounding. Source: Arizona Office of Employment and Population Statistics and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. 23 24 SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 Commerce Sales Outlook The largest threat to Cochise County’s economy comes from defense budget cuts impacting Fort Huachuca, which are the natural upshot of winding down wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. While the rest of the state and nation suffered through severe effects of the Great Recession, Cochise County was buffered from the worst of it due to increased defense spending on the fort and its missions, along with indirect and induced impacts of that spending. Those increases were principally tied to the wars. Defense cuts, and the uncertainty they create, are likely to continue to hinder economic improvement in Sierra Vista and Cochise County. As federal sequestration and associated federal employee furloughs took effect in late 2013, continuing through 2014, Sierra Vista’s retail sales, which had been on a path of recovery following five years of decline, reversed direction with sales falling in nine of the first 11 months of 2014. As of early 2015, there was no sign of recovery of the city’s retail market. AVERAGE ANNUAL DAILY TRAFFIC COUNT PROJECTED ROUTE LOCATION 2010 2011 2012 2013 2030 SR90 Ft Huachuca (N Gate) to Ft Huachuca (E Gate) 19,000 17,821 17,239 16,340 23,000 SR90 Fort Huachuca (East Gate) to 7th St 20,500 17,474 15,509 15,133 25,000 SR90 7th Street to Coronado Dr/San Xavier Rd 19,500 18,450 15,457 15,319 24,500 SR90 Coronado/San Xavier to Charleston/MLK Pkwy 17,000 14,873 14,461 13,747 26,000 SR90 Charleston Rd/MLK Pkwy to SR 92/Fry Blvd 17,000 14,873 14,461 13,747 26,000 SR90 SR 92/Fry to Giulio Cesare/Avenida Del Sol 19,000 18,012 17,933 17,378 27,000 SR90 Giulio Cesare/Avenida Del Sol to Moson Rd 9,800 9,186 8,681 8,273 13,000 SR90 Moson Rd to SR 80 4,100 3,737 3,639 3,285 5,600 SR92 SR 90/Fry Blvd to East Foothills Dr 30,000 29,546 24,282 25,866 48,000 SR92 East Foothills Dr to Snyder Rd 31,500 31,866 25,447 25,330 46,000 SR92 Snyder Blvd to Avenida Cochise 27,000 25,841 24,609 25,161 34,000 SR92 Avenida Cochise to Buffalo Soldier Trail 22,000 21,357 20,327 20,805 37,000 SR92 Buffalo Soldier to Glenn Ave/Kachina Trail 22,500 22,134 19,994 20,478 36,000 SR92 Glenn/Kachina to Ramsey Canyon/Ramsey Rd 19,000 18,946 17,877 17,688 28,000 SR92 Ramsey Canyon/Rd to Hereford Rd - Nicksville 10,500 10,602 10,532 10,525 14,500 Note: Figures represent the average number of vehicles traveling each day in both directions. Source: Arizona Department of Transportation. SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 One factor that has helped the local economy is construction of a new, 100-bed hospital in Sierra Vista scheduled to open as Canyon Vista Medical Center in April 2015. During construction, the new hospital gave a boost to employment in the local construction industry, as well as struggling area hospitality industries (accommodation and restaurant and bar) as specialized work crews were brought in for the project. Once open, it is estimated the new hospital will employ 100 additional workers. In the longer run, the new hospital will serve as an economic development asset to lure new businesses and retirees to the area, which will help in the economic recovery. In the short run, however, the area can expect to see a decline in hospitality sales as construction winds down in 2015, erasing the growth trend in those industries seen in 2014. Completion of the hospital will also directly impact the local construction industry and ripple throughout the economy dampening sales across industries. Further impacting the area’s accommodation industry is the Department of the Army's Privatized Army Lodging (PAL) initiative, which will result in a net increase of 116 rooms on Fort Huachuca providing competition to off-post facilities in an already struggling market. In addition to travelers on official business at the fort, on-post accommodation facilities are now open to members of the general public with no affiliation with Department of Defense. In 2014, the new 243-room Candlewood Suites hotel opened on post as part of the PAL initiative. The fort will also see remodeling of its previous Army-operated lodging facilities COCHISE COUNTY GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) YEAR 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 REAL GDP* 3,262 3,254 3,355 3,484 3,723 3,814 3,943 3,946 4,060 4,158 4,127 3,967 3,916 GROWTH (%) —— -0.2 3.1 3.8 6.9 2.4 3.4 0.1 2.9 2.4 -0.7 -3.9 -1.3 *Millions of chained 2009 dollars. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. SIERRA VISTA SALES TAX REVENUE INDUSTRY Construction Accommodation Wholesale Trade Services Real Estate, Rental & Leasing Restaurant & Bar Finance & Insurance Other Retail Trade Arts & Entertainment Transporting & Warehousing Manufacturing Communications & Utilities TOTAL 2014 $1,290,134 $820,287 $279,680 $568,007 $1,162,696 $1,750,709 $14,714 $113,925 $9,161,861 $8,332 $6,349 $230,556 $1,498,588 $16,908,833 2013 $980,450 $698,530 $176,836 $528,096 $1,140,285 $1,739,936 $11,078 $111,319 $9,160,440 $7,754 $8,017 $232,444 $1,558,825 $16,354,005 GROWTH ($) $309,684 $121,757 $102,844 $39,911 $22,411 $10,773 $3,636 $2,606 $1,421 $578 -$1,668 -$1,888 -$60,237 $554,828 Source: Arizona Department of Revenue and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. GROWTH (%) 31.6 17.4 58.2 7.6 2.0 0.6 32.8 2.3 0.0 7.5 -20.8 -0.8 -3.9 3.4 25 26 SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 to be branded as Holiday Inn Express with a total of 160 rooms. Once Holiday Inn Express is open, there will be 403 rooms available on post for use by those on official business, as well as members of the general public, compared to 287 before the PAL initiative, which were limited to those affiliated with the military. Other policy changes regarding use of off-post lodging facilities by military personnel temporarily assigned to the fort for training will continue to reduce demand for off-post lodging. On the upside, threats emerging from the Middle East drawing a U.S. military response in late 2014 and into 2015 may cause national policymakers to reconsider levels of military spending reductions, which could impact military intelligence, unmanned aerial systems, and cyber-security missions at Fort Huachuca. RETAIL SALES CHANGE (%) INFLATION ADJUSTED GROWTH (%) SIERRA VISTA CHANGE (%) INFLATION ADJUSTED GROWTH (%) -4.5 -4.2 $504,423,943 -1.7 -1.4 YEAR COCHISE COUNTY 2009 $739,994,716 2010 $724,134,017 -2.1 -3.8 $507,068,457 0.5 -1.1 2011 $738,394,565 2.0 -1.2 $495,431,943 -2.3 -5.5 2012 $786,600,901 6.5 4.5 $500,704,057 1.1 -1.0 2013 $810,061,630 3.0 1.5 $525,392,914 4.9 3.5 2014* $717,401,409 -0.6 -2.3 $466,559,991 -0.4 -2.1 *Jan-Nov only; comparisons to same period one year prior. Note: Inflation-adjusted growth is calculated using the inflation rates as determined by the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U). Data shown are estimates. Source: Arizona Department of Revenue and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. RESTAURANT & BAR SALES INFLATION ADJUSTED GROWTH (%) CHANGE (%) 2009 $128,393,451 -0.1 0.3 $67,166,692 1.7 2.1 2010 $130,507,965 1.6 0.0 $70,375,231 4.8 3.1 YEAR SIERRA VISTA INFLATION ADJUSTED GROWTH (%) COCHISE COUNTY CHANGE (%) 2011 $134,364,426 3.0 -0.2 $74,541,692 5.9 2.8 2012 $131,290,836 -2.3 -4.4 $68,999,308 -7.4 -9.5 2013 $132,527,859 0.9 -0.5 $66,362,692 -3.8 -5.3 2014* $125,313,409 3.1 1.4 $61,755,944 1.6 -0.1 *Jan-Nov only; comparisons to same period one year prior. Note: Inflation-adjusted growth is calculated using the inflation rates as determined by the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U). Data shown are estimates. Source: Arizona Department of Revenue and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. ACCOMMODATION SALES YEAR COCHISE COUNTY CHANGE (%) INFLATION ADJUSTED GROWTH (%) CHANGE (%) INFLATION ADJUSTED GROWTH (%) 2009 $41,243,050 -9.3 -9.0 $22,499,564 -2.4 -2.0 2010 $45,357,394 10.0 2011 $40,863,664 -9.9 8.3 $25,337,345 12.6 11.0 -13.1 $23,581,436 -6.9 -10.1 SIERRA VISTA 2012 $34,680,677 -15.1 -17.2 $17,425,818 -26.1 -28.2 2013 $30,956,346 -10.7 -12.2 $12,746,873 -26.9 -28.3 2014* $29,077,894 -0.5 -0.6 $14,099,699 18.2 16.5 *Jan-Nov only; comparisons to same period one year prior. Note: Inflation-adjusted growth is calculated using the inflation rates as determined by the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U). Data shown are estimates. Source: Arizona Department of Revenue and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 Depending on the nature and duration of U.S. involvement in the region, the fort may see drawdown efforts level off, or may even see an uptick in activity given the relevancy of the fort’s missions to counterterrorism and related efforts. Also on the positive side, as state and national economies continue to recover the area is likely to see a resumption of the influx of retirees as seen in past years due to improving housing markets nationwide that allow for greater mobility; increasing wealth (e.g., home equity, 401k, etc.) encouraging retirement; lower home prices in the area attracting those looking to maximize the value of fixed incomes; and the opening of the new hospital, making the area more attractive to those needing access to quality health care. RETAIL OUT-SHOPPING BY SIERRA VISTA RESIDENTS (2011) SIERRA VISTA BUSINESS LICENSES New Licenses Cancelled/Non-renewed Licenses Year-end Total Licenses 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 375 408 402 364 370 297 151 130 60 180 3,272 3,529 3,801 4,105 4,295 Source: City of Sierra Vista SIERRA VISTA AREA BUSINESS ESTABLISHMENTS INDUSTRY 2008 Accommodation & food services Admin, support, waste mgmt, remediation services Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation Construction 2009 2010 2011 2012 104 98 106 111 106 70 68 67 70 67 12 10 12 10 12 112 99 89 93 86 Educational Services 18 17 14 18 20 Finance & Insurance 69 65 63 62 62 173 175 176 175 168 0 0 1 2 0 18 18 17 18 17 4 4 4 4 6 19 18 18 19 15 1 1 1 1 1 Health Care and Social Assistance Industries not classified Information Management of Companies & Enterprises Manufacturing Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction Other services (except public administration) 101 98 109 105 102 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 116 114 124 130 120 Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Retail Trade Transportation & Warehousing Utilities Wholesale Trade TOTAL 74 67 63 63 67 179 180 173 176 179 24 27 26 25 25 8 6 5 5 6 23 24 23 20 14 1,127 1,089 1,091 1,107 1,073 Note: Data for zip codes 85635, 85636, and 85650; includes only business establishments with employees. Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. CATEGORY OF SALES Computer hardware/software Furniture Music (CDs, tapes, etc.) Hobby supplies Video (DVDs, VHS tapes, etc.) Books Jewelry Electronics Home Furnishings Sporting goods Children’s clothing Appliances Women’s clothing Men’s clothing Auto parts and accessories Building materials Beer, wine, and liquor Hardware Garden supplies Health and personal care items Gasoline Groceries OUT-SHOPPING % 48.2 46.7 45.6 45.1 44.3 44.0 44.0 43.1 42.4 37.9 37.1 36.6 36.3 36.1 35.7 32.0 31.1 31.0 28.0 25.1 23.4 22.5 Note: Out-shopping refers to shopping done by residents of the city at businesses located outside the city. Source: Cochise College Center for Economic Research (Retail out-shopping survey). 27 28 SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 Real Estate & Construction Construction on Fort Huachuca Although Fort Huachuca is part of Sierra Vista city limits through annexation, construction on the fort, which is federally owned land, is not subject to the city’s building permit process. For that reason, new construction on the fort is not included in the city or county’s building permit numbers. From 2010 to 2014, residential communities on the fort were constructed by local builders Castle & Cooke Arizona and R. L. Workman Homes. The overall number of housing units on post dropped from approximately 1,200 in 2010 to 1,139 in 2014 as a result of demolition of older units and construction of fewer units to replace them. In 2013 and 2014, the new 243-room Candlewood Suites hotel was constructed on the fort; the new facility opened in late 2014. Under the Department of the Army’s Privatized Army Lodging, the fort will also see remodeling of its previous lodging facilities to be branded as Holiday Inn Express with a total of 160 rooms. Once both facilities are complete, there will be 403 rooms available on post, compared to 287 before the PAL initiative. NEW HOME PERMITS (SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 COCHISE COUNTY 1,019 1,129 1,265 1,032 483 423 372 347 319 278 162 209 SIERRA VISTA 595 689 577 427 178 199 197 169 186 169 61 110 Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. SIERRA VISTA AREA DISTRIBUTION OF HOME PRICES (2014) MINIMUM PRICE MAXIMUM PRICE MIDPOINT NUMBER PERCENT OF PRICE OF HOMES TOTAL HOMES $12,500 $56,727 $34,614 73 10.0% $56,727 $100,955 $78,841 116 15.8% $100,955 $145,182 $123,068 152 20.7% $145,182 $189,409 $167,295 163 22.2% $189,409 $233,636 $211,523 105 14.3% $233,636 $277,864 $255,750 62 8.5% $277,864 $322,091 $299,977 34 4.6% $322,091 $366,318 $344,205 17 2.3% $366,318 $410,545 $388,432 5 0.7% $410,545 $454,773 $432,659 3 0.4% $454,773 $499,000 $476,886 3 0.4% Note: Includes only those homes listed on Southeast Arizona Multiple Listing Service and/or Tucson Area Multiple Listing Service. Includes site-built homes, townhouses, and condominiums. The Sierra Vista Area includes Sierra Vista, Hereford/Palominas, Huachuca City, Tombstone, Whetstone, and surrounding unincorporated areas. Source: Southeast Arizona Multiple Listing Service, Tucson Area Multiple Listing Service, and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 VA Financing In considering housing affordability in Sierra Vista, it is important to take into account the large number of active duty military personnel and veterans residing in the area. As of the 2011-2013 American Community Survey, 27.6 percent of Sierra Vista’s population ages 18 and older are civilian veterans of the military, more than three times the national level. As of September 2014, approximately 2,300 active duty military personnel were assigned to the fort, with an additional 350 deployed from the fort to other locations worldwide. This is important to housing market analysis since most active duty military personnel and veterans finance their homes using Veterans Administration (VA) guaranteed loans. VA loans continue to offer zero-down financing, even as loan paperwork and credit requirements have increased significantly in recent years and debt-to-income ratios have become more restrictive. The large number of VA eligible buyers creates an affordability bonus since a major obstacle for many buyers, especially first-time buyers, is the down payment. COCHISE COUNTY HOME SALES (SITE-BUILT) YEAR VOLUME CHANGE IN VOLUME (%) 2004 1,591 —— MEDIAN PRICE MEDIAN PRICE CHANGE (%) AVERAGE SALE/ASKING PRICE (%) AVERAGE PRICE SQ FT AVERAGE PRICE SQ FT CHANGE (%) AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET FORECLOSURES (% OF SALES) $150,000 —— 97.8 $92.74 —— 111 1.5 2005 1,807 13.6 $186,000 24.0 98.4 $113.52 22.4 107 0.9 2006 1,446 -20.0 $205,250 10.3 97.6 $127.11 12.0 114 1.8 2007 1,289 -10.9 $206,579 0.6 96.4 $122.44 -3.7 134 3.8 2008 1,044 -19.0 $195,000 -5.6 95.7 $115.42 -5.7 150 11.4 2009 1,049 0.4 $189,000 -3.1 95.5 $110.00 -4.7 148 14.0 2010 1,078 2.8 $173,250 -8.3 94.6 $98.40 -10.5 144 24.7 2011 1,048 -2.8 $156,000 -10.0 94.6 $88.82 -9.7 157 30.0 2012 1,084 3.4 $146,500 -6.1 93.9 $84.51 -4.9 162 26.4 2013 1,181 8.9 $139,900 -4.5 94.6 $82.13 -2.8 156 27.6 2014 1,144 -3.1 $132,000 -5.6 95.2 $79.85 -2.8 154 24.8 Note: Includes only those homes listed on Southeast Arizona Multiple Listing Service and/or Tucson Area Multiple Listing Service. Includes townhouses and condominiums. Source: Southeast Arizona Multiple Listing Service, Tucson Area Multiple Listing Service, and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. SIERRA VISTA AREA HOME SALES (SITE-BUILT) YEAR VOLUME CHANGE IN VOLUME (%) MEDIAN PRICE MEDIAN PRICE CHANGE (%) AVERAGE SALE/ASKING PRICE (%) AVERAGE PRICE SQ FT AVERAGE PRICE SQ FT CHANGE (%) AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET FORECLOSURES (% OF SALES) 2004 1,263 —— $162,500 —— 98.4 $97.25 —— 103 0.7 2005 1,495 18.4 $199,900 23.0 99.1 $118.67 22.0 101 0.5 2006 1,120 -25.1 $216,713 8.4 98.1 $132.77 11.9 110 1.1 2007 978 -12.6 $217,479 0.4 96.9 $128.48 -3.2 135 2.3 2008 796 -18.6 $209,500 -3.7 96.1 $122.31 -4.8 146 7.0 2009 815 2.4 $197,000 -6.0 96.2 $114.82 -6.1 141 11.5 2010 785 -3.7 $194,463 -1.3 95.8 $106.67 -7.1 136 20.8 2011 752 -4.2 $179,995 -7.4 95.5 $97.04 -9.0 158 25.5 2012 733 -2.5 $168,761 -6.2 95.5 $92.47 -4.7 166 22.5 2013 781 6.5 $162,000 -4.0 96.0 $89.96 -2.7 147 25.2 2014 779 -0.3 $147,617 -8.9 96.6 $84.97 -5.5 151 24.6 Note: Includes only those homes listed on Southeast Arizona Multiple Listing Service and/or Tucson Area Multiple Listing Service. Includes townhouses and condominiums. The Sierra Vista Area includes Sierra Vista, Hereford/Palominas, Huachuca City, Tombstone, Whetstone, and surrounding unincorporated areas. Source: Southeast Arizona Multiple Listing Service, Tucson Area Multiple Listing Service, and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. 29 30 SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 Affordable Housing Developments A focus of the city in recent years has been affordable housing. In the city’s West End, the Crossing Point community, developed in partnership with the Sierra Vista Industrial Development Authority, is a 57-unit affordable housing development. The Crossing Point community offers moderately priced two-story, threeand four-bedroom homes with down payment assistance for those who qualify. Another affordable housing development, also in the city’s West End, is Casa del Sol Apartments, an 88-unit, multifamily affordable senior rental housing development completed in late 2012. Outlook The large volume of foreclosed homes offered at lower prices will continue to dampen demand for new home construction in Sierra Vista and countywide through 2015 and into 2016. Isolated signs, however, suggest the problem may be moderating indicating accelerated improvement perhaps by late 2015. As foreclosures gradually clear from the market, that will place upward pressure on home prices and downward pressure on sales volume of existing homes. COCHISE COUNTY HOME SALES (MANUFACTURED HOMES) YEAR VOLUME CHANGE IN VOLUME (%) 2004 234 —— MEDIAN PRICE MEDIAN PRICE CHANGE (%) AVERAGE SALE/ASKING PRICE (%) AVERAGE PRICE SQ FT AVERAGE PRICE SQ FT CHANGE (%) AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET FORECLOSURES (% OF SALES) $76,000 —— 93.7 $53.28 —— 132 11.4 2005 290 23.6 $91,000 19.7 96.5 $65.41 22.8 131 6.2 2006 229 -21.0 $101,050 11.0 95.1 $73.25 12.0 129 1.4 2007 211 -7.7 $110,000 8.9 94.1 $73.52 0.4 147 5.5 2008 140 -33.9 $105,850 -3.8 93.5 $68.79 -6.4 158 11.8 2009 113 -19.1 $97,000 -8.4 93.0 $63.36 -7.9 164 22.2 2010 169 49.6 $71,000 -26.8 90.6 $55.67 -12.1 147 36.7 2011 156 -7.7 $58,250 -18.0 92.2 $46.14 -17.1 156 47.4 2012 202 29.5 $53,000 -9.0 90.4 $41.49 -10.1 169 43.6 2013 247 22.3 $59,500 12.3 92.6 $40.60 -2.1 151 37.2 2014 265 7.3 $56,000 -5.9 92.1 $41.07 1.2 137 29.4 Note: Includes only those homes listed on Includes only those homes listed on Southeast Arizona Multiple Listing Service and/or Tucson Area Multiple Listing Service. Includes mobile homes. Source: Southeast Arizona Multiple Listing Service, Tucson Area Multiple Listing Service, and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. SIERRA VISTA AREA HOME SALES (MANUFACTURED HOMES) VOLUME CHANGE IN VOLUME (%) 2004 200 —— $80,360 —— 94.9 $56.30 —— 123 13.6 2005 258 29.3 $97,000 20.7 96.8 $66.86 18.8 120 5.3 YEAR MEDIAN PRICE MEDIAN PRICE CHANGE (%) AVERAGE SALE/ASKING PRICE (%) AVERAGE PRICE SQ FT AVERAGE PRICE SQ FT CHANGE (%) AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET FORECLOSURES (% OF SALES) 2006 197 -23.6 $110,000 13.4 95.5 $75.36 12.7 117 1.7 2007 177 -10.5 $115,500 5.0 94.5 $75.19 -0.2 140 5.2 2008 118 -33.1 $115,000 -0.4 94.3 $69.56 -7.5 156 11.2 2009 102 -13.6 $103,900 -9.7 94.3 $65.81 -5.4 165 22.0 2010 109 6.9 $69,000 -33.6 92.2 $56.90 -13.5 142 37.6 2011 101 -7.3 $60,000 -15.0 93.8 $46.52 -18.2 176 48.5 2012 128 26.7 $55,000 -8.3 91.6 $40.66 -12.6 185 47.7 2013 147 14.8 $59,300 7.8 93.2 $39.50 -2.9 166 41.5 2014 143 -2.7 $55,000 -7.3 92.9 $38.43 -2.7 130 32.9 Note: Includes only those homes listed on Southeast Arizona Multiple Listing Service and/or Tucson Area Multiple Listing Service. Includes mobile homes. The Sierra Vista Area includes Sierra Vista, Hereford/Palominas, Huachuca City, Tombstone, Whetstone, and surrounding unincorporated areas. Source: Southeast Arizona Multiple Listing Service, Tucson Area Multiple Listing Service, and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 As a result of the foreclosure problem, homes in Sierra Vista and countywide have been exceptionally affordable. Sierra Vista’s Housing Affordability Index has remained well above 200, indicating a family with the median income has more than twice the income necessary to qualify for a conventional loan covering 80 percent of a median-priced, single-family home. As foreclosures clear, there will be more demand for new homes as prices of existing homes rise. That could lead to a sustained turnaround in new home construction going into 2016. In the longer term, Castle & Cooke Arizona plans to develop 2,000 acres in the city. The planned Tribute community will consist of a mixture of single-family lots ranging from 3,150 to more than 20,000 square feet; multifamily units including apartments, townhouses, and condominiums; and commercial and institutional development. The specific plan also provides for a linear park, community and recreational opportunities, and open space. It incorporates neo-traditional neighborhood design, including houses oriented to the street and sidewalk, pedestrian-friendly design, neighborhood parks, and mixed use development. The development is not likely to proceed until housing market conditions at the national, state, and local levels see sustained improvement. HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX The HAI gauges whether a family with the area’s median income would qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. In interpreting the HAI, a value of 100 indicates a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home, assuming a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage, 20 percent down payment, and a qualifying income ratio of 25 percent (i.e., the monthly principal and interest payment cannot exceed 25 percent of the family’s monthly income). An HAI above 100 indicates that a family earning the median income has more than enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. SIERRA VISTA HOUSING STATISTICS SIERRA VISTA HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX (HAI) YEAR MONTHLY PRINCIPAL AND AMOUNT EFFECTIVE INTEREST FINANCED INTEREST RATE PAYMENT MEDIAN FAMILY MEDIAN INCOME HOME PRICE HAI 2009 $65,220 $195,722 $156,578 5.18% $858 158.4 2010 $64,929 $191,600 $153,280 4.93% $816 165.8 2011 $67,260 $180,000 $144,000 4.84% $759 184.6 2012 $64,431 $168,761 $135,009 4.04% $648 207.1 2013 $69,186 $158,550 $126,840 3.99 $605 238.2 2014p $69,186 $145,000 $116,000 4.56 $592 243.5 p = preliminary. Note: Based on the median home price for residential homes (site built, manufactured homes, mobile homes, townhouses, and condominiums) in Sierra Vista sold on Southeast Arizona Multiple Listing Service and/or Tucson Area Multiple Listing Service. Presumes a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage, a 20 percent down payment, and a 25 percent qualifying income ratio (principal and interest only). Source: Cochise College Center for Economic Research. 3,000 Number of Units 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 54 205 Less than $200 $200 to $299 616 1343 2460 $300 $500 $750 to to to $499 $749 $999 Gross Monthly Rent* 2160 Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2011-2013 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates). COMMERCIAL BUILDING PERMITS, NEW BUILDINGS (CITY OF SIERRA VISTA) SIERRA VISTA RENTAL UNITS 0 Total Housing Units 20,579 Occupied Housing Units (%) 85.2 Owner-occupied (%) 53.8 Renter-occupied (%) 46.2 Homeowner Vacancy Rate (%) 2.6 Rental Vacancy Rate (%) 14.2 Median Monthly Owner Cost (2013 dollars) 1,333 Homeowners Paying 30% or More of Income for Housing (%) 21.4 Median Monthly Gross Rent (2013 dollars) 921 Renters Paying 30% or More of Income for Housing (%) 46.7 951 $1,000 $1,500 to or $1,499 more *Gross rent includes contract rent plus utilities. Note: Includes occupied rental units only; figures expressed in 2013 dollars. Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2011-2013 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates) and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. YEAR 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 PERMITS 13 14 40 24 12 15 12 9 3 6 9 VALUATION $7,305,606 $18,468,233 $61,258,338 $43,160,924 $21,424,347 $43,747,931 $21,276,752 $26,379,585 $12,876,107 $2,555,100 $55,263,806 Note: Valuation does not include value of land. Source: City of Sierra Vista and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. 31 32 SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 Banking & Financial Services Sierra Vista is served by five banks: Wells Fargo (www.WellsFargo.com), Bank of America (www.BankOfAmerica.com), J.P. Morgan Chase (www.Chase.com), National Bank of Arizona (www.NbArizona.com), and Compass Bank (www.BBVACompass.com). Additionally, Armed Forces Bank (www.AfBank.com) is located on Fort Huachuca. The area is also served by American Southwest Credit Union (www.ASCU.org) and several financial services firms. SIERRA VISTA BANK DEPOSITS, MARKET SHARE (2014) J.P. Morgan Chase Bank 18.5% BANK DEPOSITS YEAR National Bank of Arizona 16.4% Bank of America 23.2% Wells Fargo 34.5% SIERRA VISTA AMOUNT CHANGE ($000) (%) COCHISE COUNTY AMOUNT CHANGE ($000) (%) 2010 551,575 4.4 1,014,793 1.5 2011 569,146 3.2 1,034,039 1.9 2012 614,967 8.1 1,082,302 4.7 2013 668,778 8.8 1,118,042 3.3 2014 754,642 12.8 1,148,049 2.7 Note: Data reflect total deposits as of June 30 each year. Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Cochise College Center for Economic Research. Compass Bank 7.4% Note: Data reflect total deposits in the 12 months ended June 30. Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Cochise College Center for Economic Research. BANKRUPTCY FILINGS (PER 1,000 RESIDENTS) YEAR COCHISE COUNTY ARIZONA UNITED STATES 2010 2.70 6.69 5.15 2011 2.48 5.68 4.53 2012 1.79 4.39 3.89 2013 1.81 3.55 3.39 2014 1.70 2.98 2.94 Note: Includes all chapters. Source: U.S. Bankruptcy Court, U.S. Census Bureau, Arizona Office of Employment and Population Statistics, and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 Mexico Naco, Sonora The town of Naco, Sonora, Mexico shares a border with Naco, Arizona, an unincorporated area of Cochise County approximately 35 miles southeast of Sierra Vista. The population of Naco, Sonora as of 2010 was approximately 6,400 (according to Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía). Population of Naco, Arizona as of Census 2010 was 1,046. A 2008 study by University of Arizona indicated 80.1 percent of Mexican residents entering the United States through Naco did so for the purpose of shopping—second highest of all land ports in Arizona behind Douglas. The Naco Port of Entry is open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week to vehicle and pedestrian traffic. Naco is the fourth largest commercial port in Arizona measured by total value of trade (imports and exports). REPRESENTATIVE EXCHANGE RATES: MEXICAN PESO TO U.S. DOLLAR 2013 2014 January . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.7094 February . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.7795 March . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.3546 April . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.1550 May . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.8035 June . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.0235 July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.8464 August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.3415 September . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.1747 October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.0067 November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.0925 December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.0652 January . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.3769 February . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.2379 March . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.0549 April . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.1356 May . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.8609 June . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.9712 July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.2269 August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.0763 September . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.4330 October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.4773 November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.7219 December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14.7348 Note: As of the last business day of each month. Rates vary daily. Source: International Monetary Fund. 33 34 SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 US-MEXICO BORDER CROSSINGS (NACO PORT) TRUCKS 1,661 2,512 3,376 3,728 3,947 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 LOADED EMPTY TRUCK TRUCK CONTAINERS CONTAINERS 1,066 619 1,423 1,266 1,530 2,406 1,622 2,542 1,882 2,397 BUSES 28 37 21 21 17 BUS PASSENGERS 730 950 254 547 554 PERSONAL VEHICLES 278,960 262,809 236,330 270,416 284,677 PERSONAL VEHICLE PASSENGERS 660,822 511,573 465,186 493,205 509,178 PEDESTRIANS 81,815 78,748 79,115 72,896 81,146 Note: Includes only those crossing from Mexico into the United States. Source: U.S. Department of Transportation. INTERNATIONAL TRADE WITH MEXICO (NACO PORT) YEAR TOTAL ($) 2009 9,324,342 CHANGE (%) EXPORTS ($) CHANGE (%) IMPORTS ($) CHANGE (%) -43.7 6,310,328 -53.5 3,014,014 0.8 2010 18,432,532 97.7 15,589,155 147.0 2,843,377 -5.7 2011 39,380,151 113.6 35,079,914 125.0 4,300,237 51.2 2012 55,503,983 40.9 47,216,425 34.6 8,287,558 92.7 2013 73,298,574 32.1 58,180,118 23.2 15,118,456 82.4 Source: U.S. Department of Transportation. Agua Prieta, Sonora The city of Douglas, Arizona shares a border with Agua Prieta, Sonora, Mexico, approximately 50 miles southeast of Sierra Vista. As of 2010, Agua Prieta’s population was just under 80,000 (according to Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía). A 2008 University of Arizona study indicated 81.6 percent of Mexican residents entering the United States through Douglas did so for the purpose of shopping—the highest of all land ports in Arizona. Douglas is the second largest commercial port in Arizona measured by total value of imports and exports. The Douglas Port of Entry is open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week to vehicle and pedestrian traffic. In 2013, U.S. Customs and Border Protection implemented the Secure Electronic Network for Travelers Rapid Inspection (SENTRI) program to allow expedited entry into United States through the Douglas Port for preapproved, low-risk travelers. The new SENTRI lane reduces wait times through streamlined customs and immigration processing (for more information, visit www.CBP.gov). There are more than 20 maquiladoras (twin factories with facilities on both sides of the border) in Agua Prieta and Douglas, with Agua Prieta serving as the manufacturing center and Douglas the warehouse distribution center. Major industrial employers in Agua Prieta include Levolor Kirsh, Commercial Vehicle Group, Takata, Velcro USA, Standex International, and Alstyle Apparel & Activewear (which built a 700,000 square-foot manufacturing facility in 2011 that will employ 3,000 workers at full capacity). US-MEXICO BORDER CROSSINGS (DOUGLAS PORT) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 TRUCKS 25,162 25,504 29,883 31,636 32,497 LOADED EMPTY TRUCK TRUCK CONTAINERS CONTAINERS 15,860 8,718 15,004 9,337 17,377 10,484 17,419 11,836 17,231 12,963 BUSES 1,979 2,182 1,987 2,065 2,076 BUS PASSENGERS 13,572 13,785 14,577 19,670 14,544 PERSONAL VEHICLES 1,514,446 1,431,813 1,393,181 1,405,122 1,470,933 PERSONAL VEHICLE PASSENGERS 3,893,330 2,892,520 2,615,027 2,610,492 2,703,712 Note: Includes only those crossing from Mexico into the United States. Source: U.S. Department of Transportation. PEDESTRIANS 1,314,745 1,096,084 1,030,357 1,198,838 1,804,110 SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 INTERNATIONAL TRADE WITH MEXICO (DOUGLAS PORT) TOTAL ($) CHANGE (%) 2009 613,864,270 2010 846,359,513 YEAR EXPORTS ($) CHANGE (%) IMPORTS ($) CHANGE (%) -13.6 251,096,720 -19.0 362,767,550 -9.4 37.9 333,651,867 32.9 512,707,646 41.3 2011 1,185,576,639 40.1 565,295,027 69.4 620,281,612 21.0 2012 1,293,028,750 9.1 742,614,965 31.4 550,413,785 -11.3 2013 1,426,764,162 10.3 868,944,656 17.0 557,819,506 1.3 Source: U.S. Department of Transportation and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. Economic Impact of Mexican Visitors A 2008 study by University of Arizona found Mexican visitors to Cochise County accounted for 5.3 percent of countywide taxable sales. Visitors spent an annual $186.4 million in Cochise County, with 55 percent of that in retail stores, 24.1 percent in grocery stores, and 7.3 percent in restaurants. Accounting for indirect and induced impacts, Mexican visitors were responsible for $211.8 million in sales, 1,763 jobs, and $36.5 million in income countywide. Statewide direct expenditures by Mexican visitors crossing through Douglas totaled $466.4 million ($253 per party) according to the study. Those entering through Naco spent $98.4 million ($277 per party) while in Arizona. Although statewide direct expenditures totaled $564.8 million for both ports, only $186.4 million (about one-third) was spent within Cochise County, with more than two-thirds of that spent in Douglas. Mexican visitors were responsible for $211.8 million in sales, 1,763 jobs, and $36.5 million in income countywide. 35 36 SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 Fort Huachuca Photo: Fort Huachuca Public Affairs Fort Huachuca, Cochise County’s largest employer, is an active U.S. Army installation located in Sierra Vista. The fort provides critical resources, infrastructure, and services to more than 50 unique tenant units and missions with national-level requirements, including three of the fastest-growing missions in Department of Defense: military intelligence, cyber-security, and unmanned aircraft systems training and operations. The main and auxiliary installation properties cover more than 100,000 acres and the fort manages 964 square miles of restricted air space and 2,500 square miles of electronic ranges outside installation boundaries. The fort maintains, operates, or oversees more than 8.2 million square feet of operational facilities, 1,136 family housing units, three remote airstrips, and three accommodation schools. Libby Army Airfield with its 12,001 foot concrete runway is the one of the Army’s busiest continental U.S. airfields. As of September 2014, approximately 2,300 active duty military personnel were assigned to Fort Huachuca, with an additional 350 deployed from the fort to other locations worldwide. There are also approximately 2,600 military trainees (students) temporarily assigned to the fort for training on any given day with more than 8,000 trained on site each year. Fort Huachuca also directly employs approximately 3,500 civilian workers and contracts with numerous area firms including General Dynamics, Northrup Grumman, ManTech International, Raytheon, TASC, Booz Allen Hamilton, and others employing several thousand workers. The resident population of Fort Huachuca (those residing on post) was 3,786 as of January 2015, which includes 1,072 military personnel and 2,714 family members residing in on-post family housing, along with 1,900 unmarried or unaccompanied military personnel residing in troop billets, including students assigned temporarily for training. Many military personnel and their families also reside in surrounding communities. In 2008, the Maguire Company released its Economic Impact of Arizona’s Principal Military Operations report. The report estimated the direct, indirect, and induced impact of Fort Huachuca on Cochise County at $2.4 billion annually, nearly 42 percent of which was attributable to indirect and induced economic activity in the county’s retail trade and services industries. The employment impact was estimated at 26,921 jobs countywide, which includes the fort’s direct employees, as well as those employed due to government contracts and spending by the fort and its employees. The report also estimated the fort generated $23.2 million per year in local sales tax and $17.3 million in local property tax. The study is scheduled to be updated in 2014-15. For more information on Fort Huachuca, visit www.Army.Mil/Huachuca. SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 Agriculture Agriculture is a significant part of the Cochise County economy. Top crop items are forage land, corn for grain, pecans, dry edible beans, and cotton. Top livestock are cattle and calves, layers, sheep and lambs, bee colonies, and horses and ponies. Cochise County offers numerous agritourism opportunities including farmers markets throughout the county, U-PICK Farms in the Sulphur Springs Valley area, and wineries and winetasting events. For more information, visit www.ExploreCochise.com. Sierra Vista Farmers Market Sierra Vista Farmers Market provides access to locally raised food to contribute to the success of local food growers and producers and strengthen the local food economy. Products include produce, meat, fish, eggs, cheese, baked goods, and specialty products, as well as plants, native trees, natural body care, locally roasted coffees, crafts, and entertainment by local musicians. For more information, visit www.SierraVistaFarmersMarket.com. Cochise County Wineries Wine production, sales, and tasting rooms have been a growing industry in Cochise County in recent years. According to Arizona Wine Growers Association (www.ArizonaWine.org), the Willcox area of Cochise County produces the largest quantity of grapes in Arizona. Vineyards are located in Willcox, Benson, Pearce, Cochise, and surrounding areas. In 2013, Aridus Wine Company opened a custom crush facility in Willcox, which processes, ferments, and barrel-stores grapes from various vineyards. The Willcox Wine Trail has several vineyards located in the foothills of the Chiricahua Mountains for those interested in wine tours. Tasting rooms are located in Bisbee, Sierra Vista, Tombstone, and Willcox. For more information, visit www.ExploreCochise.com. Cochise County Fair The Cochise County Fair is held each September at Cochise County Fairgrounds (just north of Douglas) offering agricultural, commercial, educational, and entertainment activities including a live rodeo. Exhibits include livestock, buildings, dogs, small stock, and horses. The carnival at the fair offers rides, attractions, games, and food booths. For more information, visit CochiseCountyFair.org. 37 38 SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 COCHISE COUNTY AGRICULTURE 2012 Farms Number Land (acres) Average farm size (acres) Estimated market value of land and buildings Average per farm (dollars) 2007 CHANGE % CHANGE 1,093 1,065 28 2.6% 916,672 824,226 92,446 11.2% 839 774 65 8.4% 1,175,308 1,475,858 -300,550 -20.4% -26.5% Average per acre (dollars) 1,401 1,907 -506 Estimated market value: machinery and equipment Average per farm (dollars) 81,234 77,792 3,442 4.4% Farms by size 1 to 9 acres 182 122 60 49.2% 10 to 49 acres 297 252 45 17.9% 50 to 179 acres 232 285 -53 -18.6% 180 to 499 acres 137 149 -12 -8.1% 500 to 999 acres 56 76 -20 -26.3% 189 181 8 4.4% 1,000 acres or more Total cropland Irrigated land Market value of agricultural products sold Farms by value of sales Farms 496 496 0 0.0% Acres 123,311 141,156 -17,845 -12.6% Farms 374 368 6 1.6% Acres 65,483 67,598 -2,115 -3.1% Total ($1,000) 149,998 117,130 32,868 28.1% Average per farm (dollars) 137,235 109,981 27,254 24.8% Less than $2,500 420 490 -70 -14.3% $2,500 to $4,999 159 119 40 33.6% $5,000 to $9,999 103 91 12 13.2% $10,000 to $24,999 133 120 13 10.8% $25,000 to $49,999 85 87 -2 -2.3% $50,000 to $99,999 48 50 -2 -4.0% 34.3% $100,000 or more Hired farm labor Workers Payroll ($1,000) Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture and the Cochise College Center for Economic Research. 145 108 37 1,375 1,382 -7 -0.5% 16,195 10,359 5,836 56.3% SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 Tourism Photo: City of Sierra Vista Tourism is an important component of the Sierra Vista and Cochise County economy. As an exportoriented industry it brings dollars to the local area from other regions, generating local jobs, income, and tax revenue. Area attractions lure hundreds of thousands of visitors annually. According to the Sierra Vista Visitor Center, there are approximately 1,780 lodging rooms in the city. The City of Sierra Vista identified tourism as an underdeveloped economic asset in its economic development documents (Plan for Prosperity and the city council’s 2014-2016 Strategic Leadership Plan). With increasing focus on tourism promotion, the city identified four key areas for growth: the emergent wine industry, motorcycle tourism, bicycle tourism, and international tourism (with particular emphasis on tourism from Mexico and Canada). Still in the planning stage, the city is exploring partnerships with Canyon Vista Medical Center and the potential to expand medical tourism. The city’s tourism department has dedicated resources to building regional and industry relationships across Southern Arizona and Northern Sonora, Mexico, with collaborative plans to leverage the wine industry as a cross-border/cross-cultural attraction, along with other economic development opportunities related to the wine industry. According to the city’s tourism department, bicycling and motorcycling activities nationwide are a steadily growing tourism market segment and nearby mountains and relatively flat roads with lower traffic volumes make Sierra Vista and Cochise County an attractive base for two-wheeled activities. Through collaboration with local bicycle and motorcycle groups, along with targeted advertising, the city is working to expand its market base in those two visitor markets. Recently, bicycling and motorcycling groups have made Sierra Vista a central location for regional rides according to the city’s tourism department. The Chrome Pony Rally, an annual motorcycling event in its second year in 2015, is scheduled for May. COCHISE COUNTY STATE PARK VISITATIONS KARTCHNER CAVERNS STATE PARK YEAR VISITATIONS CHANGE COCHISE COUNTY NATIONAL PARK VISITATIONS TOMBSTONE COURTHOUSE STATE HISTORIC PARK VISITATIONS CHANGE CHIRICAHUA NATIONAL MONUMENT YEAR VISITATIONS CHANGE CORONADO NATIONAL MEMORIAL VISITATIONS CHANGE FORT BOWIE NATIONAL HISTORIC SITE VISITATIONS CHANGE 2009 144,089 -6.0 44,403 -14.5 2009 60,846 7.6 103,811 14.0 9,641 -4.5 2010 123,999 -13.9 49,825 12.2 2010 55,430 -8.9 136,281 31.3 9,491 -1.6 2011 116,757 -5.8 46,037 -7.6 2011 37,030 -33.2 153,040 12.3 8,429 -11.2 2012 137,734 18.0 45,207 -1.8 2012 41,159 11.2 97,579 -36.2 7,966 -5.5 2013 137,268 -0.3 45,790 1.8 2013 39,230 -4.7 88,669 -9.1 7,872 -1.2 2014 153,053 11.5 42,549 -7.1 2014 41,572 6.0 111,420 25.7 6,964 -11.5 *January through November only; percent change based on same period one year prior. Source: Arizona Office of Tourism and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. Source: Arizona Office of Tourism and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. 39 40 SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 Additionally, the tourism department is working with the Sierra Vista Metropolitan Planning Organization and the city’s community development and public works departments to leverage amenities, ensure appropriate signage, and create route maps to position Sierra Vista as a bicycle-friendly community to enhance visitor attraction. To bolster tourism from Mexico, the city’s tourism department now produces bilingual materials, targeting advertising to cities in Sonora, Mexico, and works with U.S. and Mexican consulates, Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, Arizona-Mexico Commission, and Arizona Office of Tourism International Marketing and Public Relations to better build cross-border tourism partnerships and directly attract visitors. In late 2014, the city contracted North Star Destination Strategies, a nationally recognized community branding firm, to develop a unique identity for the city, with an expected launch in the second half of 2015. Part of the city’s economic development efforts, the city’s tourism marketing plans to fully incorporate the brand to elevate its marketing promotions and support business attraction and retention efforts made by the city’s economic development department. COCHISE COUNTY TRAVEL IMPACTS 2008 2010 2011 TOTAL DIRECT TRAVEL SPENDING ($MILLION) Destination Spending 345.5 342.4 328.7 Other Travel* 29.2 26.4 31.4 Total Direct Spending 374.7 368.8 360.2 VISITOR SPENDING BY COMMODITY PURCHASED ($MILLION) Accommodations 52.1 51.9 47.2 Food Service 84.1 88.0 83.4 Food Stores 59.5 55.8 52.7 Local Transportation & Gas 50.8 47.2 53.5 Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 22.8 22.9 21.7 Retail Sales 76.1 76.5 70.2 Destination Spending 345.5 342.4 328.7 INDUSTRY EARNINGS GENERATED BY TRAVEL SPENDING ($MILLION) Accommodation & Food Services 48.8 48.8 48.9 Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 11.6 10.9 9.7 Retail** 21.1 18.7 17.4 Other Travel* 2.6 1.7 1.7 Total Direct Earnings 84.2 80.2 77.7 INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT GENERATED BY TRAVEL SPENDING (JOBS) Accommodation & Food Services 2,540 2,470 2,420 Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 810 760 700 Retail** 870 750 700 Other Travel* 120 70 60 Total Direct Employment 4,340 4,050 3,890 GOVERNMENT REVENUE GENERATED BY TRAVEL SPENDING ($MILLION) Local 18.4 18.3 17.5 State 17.7 17.6 17.8 Total Direct Government Revenue 36.1 36.0 35.3 2012 2013p 316.6 33.0 349.6 310.6 31.8 342.4 40.3 80.9 57.2 53.0 20.1 65.1 316.6 35.9 81.5 60.0 50.2 19.6 63.5 310.6 48.3 9.8 16.7 1.8 76.6 49.1 10.0 16.4 2.0 77.5 2,370 650 660 70 3,740 2,370 640 640 70 3,720 16.3 17.0 33.3 15.2 16.1 31.4 Note: Details may not add to totals due to rounding. p = preliminary. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. Source: Dean Runyon Associates and Arizona Office of Tourism. SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 Area Attractions Area attractions represent centuries of history, including prehistoric hunting grounds and petroglyphs, Native American sites and pictographs, 16th Century forts, and Old West townsites. Alongside the region’s history, Sierra Vista and Cochise County are well known for birding and wildlife viewing opportunities and are home to numerous attractions, including: • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • The Cove (Sierra Vista’s aquatic center) Henry Hauser Museum Kartchner Caverns State Park Butterfield Trail Dragoon Springs Butterfield Mail Station Gammons Gulch Ghost Town Movie Set Holy Trinity Monastery Amerind Foundation and Museum Cochise Stronghold Geronimo Surrender Site Rucker Canyon Archaeological District John Slaughter Ranch Chiricahua Mountains and Chiricahua National Monument Arizona’s Sky Islands American Museum of Natural History’s Southwestern Research Station Fort Bowie National Historic Site Cities of Bisbee, Tombstone, and Douglas Texas Canyon • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Coronado National Forest and Coronado National Monument San Pedro Riparian National Conservation Area Fort Huachuca (National Historic Landmark District) Lehner Mammoth Kill Site and Murray Springs Clovis Site Ramsey Canyon Preserve Arizona Folklore Preserve Our Lady of the Sierras Shrine Spooner’s Arboretum San Bernardino Wildlife Refuge Whitewater Draw Wildlife Area Ghost towns of Charleston, Gleeson, Fairbank, and Dos Cabezas Numerous public and private observatories More than 20 Arizona wineries Cities of Naco, Agua Prieta, and historic Arizpe in Sonora, Mexico• Events FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL Cochise Cowboy Music & Poetry Gathering / High Desert Gardening & Landscaping Conference / Hummingbird Stitchers Quilt Guild Show Cochise Community Creative Writing Celebration / Sierra Vista Symphony John Cooper & Perimeter Trail Tour / Men Who Cook / Festival of the Southwest / Goin’ to the Dogs Show MAY Spring Fling Birding Field Trips / Chrome Pony Motorcycle Rally JULY Independence Day (July 4) festivities AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER DECEMBER Southwest Wings Birding & Nature Festival Elks Oktoberfest / City of Sierra Vista Oktoberfest / Dine under the Stars Art in the Park / Cars in the Park / Huachuca Gem, Mineral & Jewelry Show / Brown Canyon Ranch Open House Christmas Parade / Fort Huachuca Tour of Historic Officers’ Homes / Old World Santas in the Park For more information on Sierra Vista area attractions and events, visit www.VisitSierraVista.com. 41 42 SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 Renewable Energy Incentives SSVEC, which provides electrical service to Sierra Vista and other areas of Cochise County, offers several residential and commercial incentives to promote use of alternative energy, including solar (photovoltaic systems and solar water heating) and wind. For more information, visit www.SSVEC.org. Customers may also qualify for state and federal tax incentives; for more information, visit www.DSIREUSA.org. National Bank of Arizona Green Returns Program National Bank of Arizona offers special financing opportunities for renewable energy and efficiency projects under its Green Returns Banking and Financing program. For more information, visit www.NBArizona.com. SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 Community Resources CITY OF SIERRA VISTA www.SierraVistaAZ.gov SIERRA VISTA VISITORS CENTER www.VisitSierraVista.com SIERRA VISTA AREA CHAMBER OF COMMERCE www.SierraVistaChamber.org SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FOUNDATION www.SVEDF.org ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC SECURITY www.AzDES.gov SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WORKFORCE CONNECTION www.SeAzWorkforce.org FORT HUACHUCA www.Army.mil/Huachuca ARMED FORCES BANK www.AfBank.com SIERRA VISTA INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY/FIRST WEST PROPERTIES CORPORATION www.FWPC.net BANK OF AMERICA www.BankOfAmerica.com SIERRA VISTA METROPOLITAN PLANNING ORGANIZATION www.SVMPO.org CHASE www.Chase.com COCHISE COLLEGE SMALL BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT CENTER www.Cochise.Edu/SBDC COMPASS BANK www.BBVACompass.com NATIONAL BANK OF ARIZONA www.NbArizona.com WELLS FARGO BANK www.WellsFargo.com SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS SeAzRealtor.com AMERICAN SOUTHWEST CREDIT UNION www.ASCU.org COCHISE COUNTY www.Cochise.Az.gov ARIZONA WATER COMPANY www.AzWater.com COX COMMUNICATIONS www.Cox.com LIBERTY UTILITIES www.LibertyWater.com PUEBLO DEL SOL WATER COMPANY www.PdsH2o.com CENTURYLINK www.CenturyLink.com SOUTHWEST GAS www.SWGas.com SULPHUR SPRINGS VALLEY ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE www.SSVEC.org 43 44 SIERRA VISTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • 2015 About the Center for Economic Research Cochise College Center for Economic Research (CER), founded in 1995, provides economic information, analysis, and forecasting to help leaders in the public, private, and nonprofit sectors make better informed decisions; provides opportunities for Cochise College students to conduct and publish research on local and regional economic issues; and educates residents of Cochise County on the local, state, and national economy through presentations, newspaper columns, radio show appearances, and social media. CER hosts economic outlook luncheons each year in Benson, Bisbee, Douglas, and Sierra Vista and produces four major publications annually: Benson Economic Outlook, Bisbee Economic Outlook, Douglas Economic Outlook, and Sierra Vista Economic Outlook (released in conjunction with the luncheons). CER is a member of Association for University Business and Economic Research (AUBER), the only community college organization in the nation holding membership. In addition, CER is a U.S. Census Bureau State Data Center affiliate that receives and disseminates Census Bureau data to local governments and nongovernmental data users at no charge or on a cost-recovery/reimbursable basis. Dr. Robert Carreira has served as CER Director since 2005. He holds a Ph.D. in public policy and Master’s degrees in public administration, education, and international relations (international political economics). Contact the CER Center for Economic Research Cochise College 901 North Colombo Avenue • Sierra Vista, AZ 85635 CER@Cochise.Edu Center Staff Dr. Robert Carreira – Director Iris Routhieaux – Research Assistant Sierra Vista Economic Advisory Committee Angela Camara—Fort Huachuca Public Affairs Rick Coffman—Castle & Cooke, Arizona Frank Gonzalez—Lawley Automotive Group Judy Hector—City of Sierra Vista Angelica Hernandez—Southeast Arizona Workforce Connection Mignonne Hollis—Sierra Vista Economic Development Foundation Mary Jacobs—City of Sierra Vista Frank Moro—First West Properties Corporation Tom Reardon—First Things First Mark Schmitt—Cochise College Small Business Development Center Mary Tieman—Sierra Vista Area Chamber of Commerce Victoria Yarbrough—City of Sierra Vista