Technical Analysis

17/08/2016
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY XAU/USD
Technical Analysis
Wednesday, August 17, 2016
07:30 GMT
to 1.13
1.1090
on Wednesday
EUR/USD surges
tests the
mark
“Nothing has changed on the daily chart of the EUR/USD
“While
euro ended
theinday
off its highs
versus
theafter
U.S.
forex market.
It is still
its well
month-long
trading
range
dollar,
the
break
above
the
100-day
SMA
puts
momentum
what was probably an exhaustive sell climax.”
clearly
onBrooks
the side
EUR/USD bulls.”
– based on
Priceof
Action
– Kathy Lien (based on investing.com)

Pair’s Outlook
The Euro
common
surged
European
markedcurrency
a sessionsurged
of gains
andagainst
reached
thepast
US Dollar
the 1.13
on
Wednesday,
mark
againstasthe
the US
currency
Dollarexchange
on Tuesday.
rate increased
However,from
the 1.1059
currency
at
the start of
exchange
rate
day’s
retreated
trading from
to 1.1090
the high
at the
level
endofof1.1322,
the day.
and
Theit pair
has
passed the back
retreated
weekly
topivot
the point
monthly
at 1.1079,
R1 atand
1.1263
it stopped
by 5:00
exactly
GMT
at the
on
200-day simple
Wednesday,
against
moving
which
average.
the rate
Thursday
is most
morning,
likely to
therebound.
rate is
continuing tothe
Afterwards,
move
pairhigher,
wouldasmove
it reached
to the1.1108
secondmark
weekly
by 4:45
resistance
GMT. On
at
the wayand
1.1302
up,test
thethe
exchange
1.13 mark
rateonce
is setagain.
to move
In addition,
to the monthly
a surge isPPalso
at
1.1149. However,
possible
due to the
thefact
20-day
that SMA
the upper
at 1.1128
Bollinger
will likely
band show
has moved
some
resistance
higher
to 1.1318,
to the pair.
compared to yesterday’s 1.1299.

Traders’ Sentiment
SWFX traders continue
continue to
to be
bebearish,
bearish as
on61%
Thursday,
of openaspositions
54% of open
were
positions
short
on Wednesday
are short. Inmorning.
the meantime,
In the meantime,
pending orders
pending
in the
commands
100-pip
range
are
57%
arebearish.
56% short.
Sentiment
Today
Yesterday
5 days ago
Positions
Orders
-22%
-8%
-12%
-14%
-18%
-6%
-26%
-10%
-16%
-6%
-34%
-14%
Indicator
1D
1W
1MN
MACD (12; 26; 9)
RSI (14)
Stochastic (5; 3; 3)
ADX (14)
CCI (14)
AROON (14)
Alligator (13; 8; 5)
SAR (0.02; 0.2)
Aggregate
Buy
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Buy
Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
↘
↗
Buy
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Sell
→
↘
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Buy
→
Level
■ R3
■ R2
■ R1
■ S1
■ S2
■ S3
1.1328/1.1341
1.1383
Rationale
BollingerR3Band; weekly R3
Weekly
1.1229/64
1.1353
55
and 100-day
SMA; weekly R2
Monthly
R2
1.1129/57
1.1302/18
MonthlyR2;
PP;trend
20-day
SMA;
weeklyband
R1
Weekly
line;
Bollinger
1.1079/88
1.1232/00
200-day
SMA;
weeklySMA;
PP trend line;
Weekly R1;
100-day
1.0972
1.1155/49
Weekly
S1
20
and 55-day
SMAs; weekly PP
1.0929
1.1107/1.1081
Bollinger
Band
Monthly PP;
200-day SMA; weekly S1
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880
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Wednesday, August 17, 2016
07:30 GMT
GBP/USD risks falling back under 1.30
“The pound is likely to keep slipping towards $1.2798 as the
U.K. economy faces the risk of a downturn and amid the
prospect of further easing by the BOE.”
- Mizuho Securities (based on Reuters)

Pair’s Outlook
The fundamentals turned in Sterling’s favour on Tuesday and along
with the strong support cluster around 1.2850 caused a substantial rally
in the Cable. Consequently, the Pound almost completely erased all
previous week’s losses, having closed just on top of the weekly R1.
However, technical studies keep giving bearish signals, suggesting that
a correction after such a surge is likely to take place. A decline then
would cause the GBP/USD pair to fall back under 1.30. On the other
hand, a lot depends on the FOMC Minutes today, where a dovish
statement could spark more Pound-buying, with the ceiling seen as far
as 1.3170, where the weekly R2 coincides with the monthly PP.

Traders’ Sentiment
Bullish sentiment worsened over the day, as 58% of all open positions
are now long. Meanwhile, the share of buy orders slid from 57 to 54%.
Sentiment
Today
Yesterday
5 days ago
Positions
Orders
16%
8%
38%
14%
34%
14%
Indicator
1D
1W
1MN
MACD (12; 26; 9)
RSI (14)
Stochastic (5; 3; 3)
ADX (14)
CCI (14)
AROON (14)
Alligator (13; 8; 5)
SAR (0.02; 0.2)
Aggregate
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
↘
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
↘
Sell
Buy
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
→
Level
■ R3
■ R2
■ R1
■ S1
■ S2
■ S3
1.3238
1.3168/70
Rationale
Weekly R3
Weekly R2; monthly PP
1.3109
20-day SMA
1.3046
Weekly R1
1.2975
Weekly PP
1.2861/53
Bollinger band; weekly and monthly S1s
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research@dukascopy.com
Wednesday, August 17, 2016
07:30 GMT
USD/JPY seen descending further
“As long as markets continue to bet against a Fed rate hike
anytime soon and the yen continues to ignore Japan's efforts
to weaken it, dollar/yen could have significantly further to
fall.”
- Forex.com (based on Business Recorder)

Pair’s Outlook
With the return of risk-off sentiment and relatively poor US inflation
data yesterday, the USD/JPY currency pair was close to touching the
99.50 level, but closed at 100.30. Risks of the Buck slumping below the
100.00 psychological level are even greater, while technical indicators
support this outlook with their bearish signs. The nearest level to
support the pair is located at 99.78, namely the weekly S2. In case
bears do take over the market, the decline is then likely to last until the
99.00 mark is reached, which is reinforced by the monthly S1, the
weekly S3 and the Bollinger band.

Traders’ Sentiment
Bullish traders’ sentiment remains unchanged at 64%, but the number
of orders to purchase the US Dollar lost 17 percentage points. The
orders now take up 66% of the market.
Sentiment
Today
Yesterday
5 days ago
Positions
Orders
28%
32%
28%
66%
22%
-20%
Indicator
1D
1W
1MN
MACD (12; 26; 9)
RSI (14)
Stochastic (5; 3; 3)
ADX (14)
CCI (14)
AROON (14)
Alligator (13; 8; 5)
SAR (0.02; 0.2)
Aggregate
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
↘
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Buy
↘
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
↘
Level
■ R3
■ R2
■ R1
■ S1
■ S2
■ S3
102.38/69
Rationale
Weekly R1; 20-day SMA
101.60
Weekly PP
100.55
Weekly S1
99.78
Weekly S2
98.88/73
97.22
Monthly S1; Bollinger band; weekly S3
Trend-line
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Wednesday, August 17, 2016
07:30 GMT
Gold continues to trade near the 1,340 level
“An increase in the amount of gold bullion held by GLD and
other bullion ETFs does not cause the gold price to rise.”
– Steve Saville (based on investing.com)

Pair’s Outlook
The yellow metal is trading near the weekly pivot point at 1,340.78
from the upside, as the metal was priced at 1,341.85 by 5:00 GMT on
Wednesday. However, the bullion surged previously on Tuesday, as it
jumped past the monthly pivot point at 1,345.31 and weekly R1 at
1,351.70 and reached the 1,357.99 level. As gold is once again stuck
between the two levels, and taking into account other factors, it is clear
that the commodity will surge at least back up to the monthly PP at
1,345.31 during today’s trading session.

Traders’ Sentiment
SWFX traders are bearish on Wednesday, as 53% of open positions are
short. In the meantime, pending orders are 57% long.
Sentiment
Today
Yesterday
5 days ago
Positions
Orders
-6%
14%
-4%
0%
-4%
2%
Indicator
1D
1W
1MN
MACD (12; 26; 9)
RSI (14)
Stochastic (5; 3; 3)
ADX (14)
CCI (14)
AROON (14)
Alligator (13; 8; 5)
SAR (0.02; 0.2)
Aggregate
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
↗
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
↗
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Buy
Buy
Buy
↗
Level
■ R3
■ R2
■ R1
■ S1
■ S2
■ S3
Rationale
1,364/68
Bollinger band; weekly R2
1,351.70
Weekly R1
1.345.31
Monthly PP
1.340/39
Weekly PP; 20-day SMA
1,324.40
Weekly S1
1,317/13
Monthly S1; weekly S2; 55-day SMA; Bollinger band
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880
research@dukascopy.com
EXPLANATIONS
Signals



Buy – the pair shows a clear uptrend
Sell – the pair shows a clear downtrend
Neutral – no specific trend for the pair
Chart


SMA (55) – Simple Moving Average of 55 periods
SMA (200) – Simple Moving Average of 200 periods
Indicators








MACD – Moving average convergence divergence – momentum indicator
RSI – Relative strength index – compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in attempt to determine ‘overbought’ and ‘oversold’ conditions of the asset
Stochastic – technical momentum indicator that compares a currency pair’s closing price to its price range over a given time period
ADX – Average directional index – trend strength indicators
CCI – oscillator used in technical analysis to help determine when a currency has been overbought or oversold
SAR – trending indicator – shows the direction of a trend
AROON – measures strength of a trend and likelihood that it will continue
Alligator – trending indicator demonstrates presence of a trend and its direction
Forecasts
Third Quartile – separates 25% of the highest forecasts
Second Quartile – the median price based on the
projections of the industry
First Quartile – separates 25% of the lowest forecasts
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880
research@dukascopy.com
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