Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region

Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region

Labor Market Trends in the! Metro South/West Region!
By Robert Clifford Policy Analyst at the New England Public Policy Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston A joint project of Commonwealth CorporaBon and New England Public Policy Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 Motivation!
§  Understand the long-­‐term labor force challenges facing the regional labor markets in MassachuseQs. §  Provide detailed data of labor supply and demand trends to support workforce development policy discussions at a local level. §  Build off the labor market development work of Harrington and Fogg (2008) and the demographics research of Sasser ModesBno (2009, 2010). Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 2 Metro South/West!
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 3 Summary!
§  Metro South/West has had one of the strongest labor market recoveries since the Great Recession. §  The region employs one of the most highly educated work forces in the state and has a strong demand for post-­‐secondary educated labor. §  Demographics present the biggest challenge to the region due to a rapidly aging populaBon. §  Metro South/West residents and employees are highly mobile, and the region’s ability to aQract mobile populaBons may miBgate some challenges. Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 4 Outline!
§  Labor Market Performance §  Labor Supply §  Labor Demand §  The Pipeline: EducaBonal Supply of Post-­‐Secondary Degrees Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 5 Labor Market Performance!
§  NaBonal and State Employment Trends §  Performance of Regional Labor Markets §  Employment Trends by Industry in Metro South/West and MassachuseQs Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 6 Massachusetts is still far below its peak employment levels
of the early 2000’s…!
Index 2000=1
Total Non-Agricultural Employment, Q1-2000 to Q1-2012
1.06
Through Q1-2012
NBER Recession
United States
Massachusetts
1.04
1.02
1.00
0.98
0.96
0.94
Q1-2000
Q1-2001
Q1-2002
Q1-2003
Q1-2004
Q1-2005
Q1-2006
Q1-2007
Q1-2008
Q1-2009
Q1-2010
Q1-2011
Q1-2012
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 7 Metro South/West leads regional employment growth
through the earliest stages of the recovery…!
Changes in Total Employment 6.0% 4.0% 3.7% Q1 2001-­‐Q1 2008 Q4 2007-­‐Q4 2009 Q3 2009-­‐Q3 2011 2.0% 0.0% -­‐2.0% -­‐2.0% -­‐3.3% -­‐4.0% -­‐6.0% -­‐8.0% Sources: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development (EOLWD), ES-202 and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly
Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 8 The Metro South/West has a strong concentration in the
Professional & Business Services industry…!
100% 90% 80% 70% Employment Distribu6on by Supersector 4.6% 3.8% 3.1% 2.9% 5.1% 2.8% 3.8% 4.2% 4.3% 6.5% 2.2% 4.5% 3.5% 5.8% 5.9% 9.3% 8.1% 9.1% 8.9% 9.7% 10.5% 21.9% 14.9% 60% 50% 40% 30% 13.6% 18.4% 20.7% 17.8% 22.5% 27.2% 24.3% MassachuseQs United States 0% Metro South/West ConstrucBon Other services Government Financial AcBviBes 20% 10% InformaBon Manufacturing Leisure & Hospitality Professional & Business Services Trade, TransportaBon & UBliBes EducaBon & Health Services Sources: Massachusetts EOLWD, ES-202 and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 9 Employment changes by major industries between
recessions were concentrated in high-skill industries…!
Employment Changes, Q1-­‐2000 to Q1-­‐2008 Manufacturing InformaBon TransportaBon & Warehousing UBliBes AdministraBve & Support Services Other Services Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Financial AcBviBes Government ConstrucBon Professional & Technical Services Health Care & Social Assistance EducaBonal Services Management of Companies & Enterprises AccommodaBon & Food Services Arts, Entertainment & RecreaBon -­‐40.0% -­‐30.0% -­‐20.0% -­‐10.0% MassachuseQs Metro South/West 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% Sources: Massachusetts EOLWD, ES-202.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 10 In the Great Recession the region continued to add jobs in
its largest industries…!
Employment Changes, Q4-­‐2007 to Q4-­‐2009 ConstrucBon Manufacturing AdministraBve & Support Services Wholesale Trade Financial AcBviBes InformaBon Retail Trade Other Services AccommodaBon & Food Services Management of Companies & Enterprises TransportaBon & Warehousing Arts, Entertainment & RecreaBon Government Health Care & Social Assistance Professional & Technical Services EducaBonal Services UBliBes -­‐25.0% MassachuseQs Metro South/West -­‐20.0% -­‐15.0% -­‐10.0% -­‐5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% Sources: Massachusetts EOLWD, ES-202.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 11 In the early stages of the labor market recovery
Metro South/West has outpaced the state in most industries…!
Employment Changes, Q3-­‐2009 to Q3-­‐2011 UBliBes Professional & Technical Services Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Financial AcBviBes TransportaBon & Warehousing Government ConstrucBon Management of Companies & Enterprises Retail Trade EducaBonal Services Arts, Entertainment & RecreaBon InformaBon Health Care & Social Assistance Other Services AccommodaBon & Food Services AdministraBve & Support Services -­‐10.0% MassachuseQs Metro South/West -­‐5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Sources: Massachusetts EOLWD, ES-202.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 12 Labor Supply!
§  ResidenBal PopulaBon Changes and CharacterisBcs §  Age and EducaBon of the Civilian Labor Force §  Trends and CharacterisBcs of the Unemployed §  CommuBng PaQerns Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 13 After growing over the first half of the decade the population of
Metro South/West has declined in recent years…!
Total Residen6al Popula6on Growth 1.5% Annual Growth Rate 2000 to 2005-­‐2007 1.0% 0.5% Annual Growth Rate 2005-­‐2007 to 2008-­‐2010 0.4% 0.0% -­‐0.1% -­‐0.5% -­‐1.0% -­‐1.5% Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS) data files, 2005-2007 and 2008-2010 American Community
Survey (ACS) Public Use Micro Sample (PUMS) data files.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 14 The region’s population has become more diverse in the
past decade…!
Demographic Characteris6cs of Metro South/
West 2000 2008-­‐2010 Resident PopulaBon 1,019,337 1,038,784 Gender Male 486,222 504,845 Female 533,115 533,939 Na6vity NaBve Born 877,860 859,444 Immigrant 141,477 179,340 Race/Ethnicity White, non-­‐Hispanic 909,509 868,184 Black, non-­‐Hispanic 16,142 22,322 Asian, non-­‐Hispanic 47,857 75,701 Hispanic 27,933 48,259 Other race, non-­‐Hispanic 17,896 24,318 Absolute Annual Change Growth Rate 19,447 0.2% 18,623 0.4% 824 0.0% -­‐18,416 -­‐0.2% 37,863 2.7% -­‐41,325 -­‐0.5% 6,180 3.7% 27,844 5.2% 20,326 6.3% 6,422 3.5% Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 15 Metro South/West has one of the older labor forces in
Massachusetts with 50 percent over 45 years old…!
Age Distribu6on of the Civilian Labor Force 100% 4.5% 90% 11.7% 80% 70% 40% 17.7% 10% 0% 15.8% 21.8% 23.9% 26.4% 4.0% 14.7% 23.3% 27.0% 28.6% 26.8% 22.0% 22.3% 23.6% 22.0% 17.1% 9.0% 9.5% 2000 2008-­‐2010 Metro South/
West Age 65+ Age 55-­‐64 Age 45-­‐54 Age 35-­‐44 Age 25-­‐34 30% 20% 3.3% 10.2% 4.7% 22.4% 24.3% 60% 50% 3.6% 10.8% 5.7% 23.3% 20.2% 12.9% 13.2% 2000 2008-­‐2010 MassachuseQs 22.7% 21.5% 15.2% 14.2% Age 16-­‐24 2000 2008-­‐2010 United States Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 16 The region also has the most educated labor force with over
60 percent having a Bachelor’s Degree or higher…!
Educa6onal ARainment of the Civilian Labor Force 100% 90% 14.8% 26.7% 80% 29.6% 22.3% 70% 60% 29.6% 50% 40% 6.8% 30% 15.3% 30.3% 0% 15.4% 6.3% 7.9% 19.1% 5.9% 13.3% 20% 10% 16.8% 24.3% 5.0% 2000 2008-­‐2010 Metro South/West 10.5% 17.2% 19.1% 24.4% 7.2% 7.9% 23.9% 8.3% 26.9% 23.5% 8.7% 2000 2008-­‐2010 MassachuseQs 15.5% Master's degree or more Bachelor's degree Associate's degree 24.0% 18.7% 15.8% 11.5% 9.4% Some College, no degree High school 26.3% Less than High School 11.8% 2000 2008-­‐2010 United States Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 17 When looking at education and age together we see the
challenges an aging labor force pose for the region…!
Educa6onal ARainment of the Civilian Labor Force in Metro South/West Master's Degree or more Bachelor's Degree Associate's Degree Some College Age 55-­‐64 High School Age 45-­‐54 Age 35-­‐44 Age 25-­‐34 Less than High School 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 18 Along with strong employment gains, Metro South/West has
the lowest unemployment rate of all regions…!
Unemployment Rates, 2000 to 2011
10.0%
Metro South/West
9.0%
8.0%
Massachusetts
United States
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Sources: Massachusetts EOLWD and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 19 The unemployed in Metro South/West are disproportionally
younger and have lower levels of educational attainment…!
100% 90% 80% Age Distribu6on 5.2% 5.7% 17.9% 17.7% 26.4% 27.6% 18.2% 23.6% 10% 0% 60% 40% 30% 30% 20% 80% 50% 50% 40% 90% 29.6% 70% 70% 60% 100% Educa6on Distribu6on 13.6% 17.1% 17.5% 9.5% 0% Civilian Labor Force Unemployed Age 65+ Age 55-­‐64 Age 45-­‐54 Age 35-­‐44 Age 25-­‐34 Age 16-­‐24 27.9% 30.3% 5.9% 5.5% 16.7% 13.3% 20% 10% 18.8% 21.6% 15.8% 5.0% 9.5% Civilian Labor Force Unemployed Master's degree or more Associate's degree High school Bachelor's degree Some College, no degree Less than High School Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 20 Metro South/West is a magnet for commuters and
interconnected with a number of labor markets…!
Total number of employed persons living in Metro South/West… …who work in: Number 538,965 Percent of Total 100.0% Boston/Metro North Southeast Central Mass Northeast Other parts of MassachuseQs New Hampshire Rhode Island Other places outside MassachuseQs 143,259 26,439 23,306 18,260 1,706 2,559 6,361 4,450 26.6% 4.9% 4.3% 3.4% 0.3% 0.5% 1.2% 0.8% Total number of persons working in Metro South/West… …who live in: 599,083 100.0% Boston/Metro North Southeast Central Mass Northeast Other parts of MassachuseQs New Hampshire Rhode Island Other places outside MassachuseQs 85,621 57,855 56,392 45,878 4,964 14,430 15,028 6,290 14.3% 9.7% 9.4% 7.7% 0.8% 2.4% 2.5% 1.0% Net in-­‐commuBng 60,118 Metro South/West Metro South/West Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region 312,625 58.0% 312,625 52.2% -­‐ June 26, 2012 21 Labor Demand!
§  EducaBonal AQainment of Employed §  EducaBonal AQainment and ComposiBon of Industries and OccupaBons §  Demand of Post-­‐Secondary Educated Labor Pre-­‐ and Post-­‐Recession Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 22 The educational attainment of those working in the region is
high, far exceeding state and national levels…!
Educa6onal ARainment of Individuals Employed in Region 100% 90% 18.3% 20.8% 15.1% 17.5% 17.7% 80% 70% 22.9% 27.7% 60% 50% 40% 7.9% 17.9% 10% 0% 25.4% 29.6% 8.1% 30% 20% 9.7% 7.4% 19.2% 8.2% 7.3% 24.1% 11.2% 19.9% 8.5% 24.0% 19.4% 8.2% 6.5% 2000 2008-­‐2010 Metro South/West 10.6% 24.0% 18.6% 22.7% 2000 2008-­‐2010 MassachuseQs Some College, no degree High school 26.7% 7.6% Bachelor's degree Associate's degree 16.3% 19.9% Master's degree or more 14.4% Less than High School 25.7% 10.7% 2000 2008-­‐2010 United States Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 23 Industries in Metro South/West employ greater shares of
employees with Bachelor’s Degrees or higher than statewide…!
Educa6onal ARainment of Employees by Major Industry in Metro South/West Professional & Technical Services 5.9% Health Care & Social Assistance 14.3% 79.9% 21.2% Manufacturing 31.4% 25.2% 0% 10% 47.4% 21.9% 20% 30% 40% 52.9% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 90% 100% Educa6onal ARainment of Employees by Major Industry in MassachuseRs Professional & Technical Services 8.0% Health Care & Social Assistance 15.9% 76.1% 23.0% Manufacturing 33.2% 37.3% 0% High School Degree or Less 10% 20% 43.8% 23.8% 30% 40% 50% 38.8% 60% Some College or Associate's Degree 70% 80% Bachelor's Degree or Higher Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 24 Occupations in Metro South/West are also occupied by
higher shares of employees with Bachelor’s Degrees…!
Educa6onal ARainment of Employees by Occupa6on in Metro South/West Management 10.1% Office & AdministraBve Support 18.6% 71.4% 32.4% Healthcare PracBBoners & Technical 6.7% 37.8% 29.8% 27.7% ProducBon 65.7% 60.3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 22.6% 40% 50% 60% 70% 17.1% 80% 90% 100% Educa6onal ARainment of Employees by Occupa6on in MassachuseRs Management 13.5% Office & AdministraBve Support 21.2% 65.3% 35.3% Healthcare PracBBoners & 6.4% 40.4% 24.3% 29.9% ProducBon 63.8% 65.6% 0% High School Degree or Less 10% 20% 30% 23.2% 40% 50% Some College or Associate's Degree 60% 70% 80% 11.1% 90% 100% Bachelor's Degree or Higher Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 25 Prior to the recession there were higher vacancy rates in the
more highly educated occupations than in the less educated…!
Job Vacancies and Educa6onal ARainment by Occupa6on, Pre-­‐Recession 7.0%
Occupational Vacancy Rate
6.0%
5.0%
Greater Boston MassachuseQs Linear (Greater Boston) Linear (MassachuseQs) Management 4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
20.0%
Office & AdministraBve Support ProducBon 30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Share of Employees with a Post-Secondary Education by Major Occupation
Source: Massachusetts EOLWD, Job Vacancy Survey.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 26 In the early stages of the labor market recovery this pattern
weakened but basically continued to hold…!
Job Vacancies and Educa6onal ARainment by Occupa6on, Post-­‐Recession 7.0%
Occupational Vacancy Rate
6.0%
5.0%
Greater Boston MassachuseQs Linear (Greater Boston) Linear (MassachuseQs) 4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Share of Employees with a Post-Secondary Education by Major Occupation
Source: Massachusetts EOLWD, Job Vacancy Survey.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 27 The Pipeline: Educational Supply of
Post-Secondary Degrees!
§  Enrollment PaQerns §  Degree CompleBons §  Major Fields of Study by Degree Type Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 28 Over the past decade enrollment growth at two-year institutions
in Metro South/West exceeded that of other institutions…!
Annual Growth in Enrollments, 2000 to 2010 12.0% 8.0% 4.0% 0.0% -­‐4.0% Full-­‐Time Enrollment Part-­‐Time Enrollment -­‐8.0% Metro South/
West MA US Less-­‐than-­‐Two-­‐Year InsBtuBons Metro South/
West Two-­‐Year InsBtuBons MA US Four-­‐Year InsBtuBons Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 29 Over the last decade completions of programs and degrees
in Metro South/West have trailed state and national trends…!
6.0% Annual Growth in Comple6ons, 2000 to 2010 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Metro South/West CerBficates MA Associate's Degrees US Bachelor's Degrees Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 30 The number and types of Certificates in Metro South/West
vary widely from year to year…!
1,200 1,000 Annual Cer6ficate Comple6ons by Major in Metro South/West, 2000 to 2010 EducaBon Business Engineering & Computer Sciences Health Sciences Services 800 600 400 200 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 31 Associate’s Degree completions have surged in recent years in
two fields: Arts, Humanities & Social Sciences and Services…!
3,200 2,800 2,400 Annual Associate’s Degree Comple6ons by Major in Metro South/West, 2000 to 2010 Engineering & Computer Sciences Business Health Sciences Arts, HumaniBes & Social Sciences Services 2,000 1,600 1,200 800 400 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 32 Bachelor’s Degree completions are largely concentrated in two
majors: Arts, Humanities & Social Sciences and Business…!
8,750 7,500 6,250 Annual Bachelor’s Degree Comple6ons by Major in Metro South/West, 2000 to 2010 Engineering & Computer Sciences Health Sciences Science & MathemaBcs Business Arts, HumaniBes & Social Sciences 5,000 3,750 2,500 1,250 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 33 Summary!
§  The recovery in employment has been stronger in Metro South/West than in other MassachuseQs regions. §  Firms in the region employ one of the most highly educated workforces in the state and conBnue to demand more post-­‐secondary educated labor. §  With one of the oldest civilian labor forces in the state, Metro South/West faces the demographic challenges of an aging populaBon. §  Given these trends, what needs to be done to ensure workers, communiBes and businesses in the Metro South/West conBnue to thrive economically? Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012 34 Thank You!
Labor Market Trends in the Metro South/West Region June 26, 2012