Ethylene and Polyethylene Global Overview

Transcription

Ethylene and Polyethylene
Global Overview
Howard Rappaport
Global Business Director, Plastics
SPI Film & Bag
May, 2011
Singapore
Shanghai
SPI
Film Houston
& Bag –New
May
Bangkok
York2011
London
Düsseldorf Dubai
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CMAI, enhance this capability – giving customers access to
solutions to navigate the complex business challenges they face
every day, all from a single source: IHS.
World Economic Growth
(World Gross Domestic Product Quarter to Quarter Growth
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates in Constant Terms)
Percent
6.0
MAIN SCENARIO
Forecast
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
Source: CMAI
00Q3 01Q3 02Q3 03Q3 04Q3 05 Q3 06 Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3
Global Demand for Basic Chemicals &
Plastics is Back on Historical Growth Path…
600
4.3%
5.1%
5.5%
Cumulative Demand Growth
Million Metric Tons
500
$20 bbl
1990s
400
$42 bbl
`00-`07
300
`10-`15
200
-4.4%
2008
100
0
90
•9
95
00
05
10
15
- Global rebound
being led by the
developing world
(BRIC’s)
- Local
consumption
supports renewed
growth
Industrial Production
Percent (%) Year/Year Change
40
China
India
Japan
S. Korea
30
U.S.
Euro Zone
20
Brazil
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
08 Mar May Jul Sep Nov 09 Mar May Jul Sep Nov 10 Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Rising Crude Oil Forecast
Dollars Per Barrel (WTI)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12
New Forecast
Old Forecast
2011 Global Ethylene Cash Costs
Dollars Per Metric Ton
1,450
Average Feedstock Basis
1,250
Heavy Feed
1,050
NEA Avg.
WEP Avg.
850
Light Feed
SAM Avg.
NAM Avg.
650
450
ISC Avg.
SEA Avg.
MDE Avg.
250
50
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Cumulative Ethylene Capacity (million tons)
140
160
Average 2010 Feedstock Slates
Percent
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
North
America
Ethane
South
America
Propane
Europe
CIS &
Baltic
States
N-Butane
Middle Northeast Southeast
East/Africa
Asia
Asia
Naphtha
Source: CMAI 2011 World Ethylene Cost Study
Gasoil
Other
North America Energy Trend Prices
Gas as a % of Crude
120%
Dollars Per MMBtu
20
18
100%
16
14
80%
12
10
60%
8
40%
6
4
20%
2
0
0%
00
01
02
03
04
05
Crude (WTI)
06
07
08
Natural Gas
09
10
11
12
13
Gas as % of Crude
14
15
The “Shale Gas” Story
• “Shale gas” is a rapidly increasing source of
natural gas
• Development of shale resources have led to
major increases in US natural gas reserves
• Led by improved applications of “hydraulic
fracturing” technology and increased use of
horizontal drilling.
• Some environmental concerns associated with
chemicals that are added to water to facilitate
the underground “fracing” process
The Shale Gas Revolution Changes
Underlying Relative Energy Values
Steam
Crackers
Shale Gas Advantage does not benefit all…
Refinery
Products
BTX
Propylene
(Methanol)
Potential Disaster
Chlorine &
Caustic
Soda
Vinyls
EDC /VCM
Styrenics
No Advantage
Ethylene
Polyethylene
Ethylene
Oxide
Derivatives
Alpha Olefins
Amines
Moderate Advantage
Highly Advantaged
Relative Petrochemical Cost Advantage that may be gained from
Shale Gas developments vs. Crude Oil based production routes.
Butadiene
Butylenes
Rubber
Latex
Ethylene Capacity and Demand
Changes
Million Metric Tons
16
12
Average Annual Demand
Change 10-15: 6.5 MMT
8
4
0
-4
-8
00
01
02
03
04
05
North America
Southeast Asia
Northeast Asia
Annual Demand Change
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Middle East
West Europe
Others
13
14
15
…So Why Aren’t We Swimming In
Middle East Olefin Derivatives?
• Project delays, especially
derivative capacity
• Strong demand, led by
China
• Capacity closures in
North America and West
Europe reduce supplydemand imbalance
Poor Middle East Operating Rates
% Nameplate Operating Rate, Middle East
120
110
Historical Average = 92%
100
90
80
70
60
50
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Middle East
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Kuwait
Qatar
UAE
World Ethylene Net Equivalent Trade
Ethylene Equivalents, Million Metric Tons
30
Exports
20
10
0
-10
-20
Imports
-30
05
06
07
North America
Indian Sub.
08
09
10
South America
Northeast Asia
11
12
West Europe
Southeast Asia
13
14
15
Middle East
Others
Polyethylene
Global Plastics Consumption 2010
PET
7%
PVC
18%
PC
2%
HDPE
17%
ABS
4%
LLDPE
11%
PS
6%
PP
25%
LDPE
10%
2010 World Polymer Demand = 190 Million Metric Tons
PE Industry “Game Changers”
* Energy costs shift (natural gas / crude): now greatly
favoring light feedstocks (ethane) in the US
* US producers announcing intent to invest
* New MDE capacity: plagued by start-up problems
* China: Economic stimulus, strong imports
* Export market became attractive and viable
* Unplanned outages for monomer and polymer
producers
* Producer discipline continues
World
2010 Total PE Demand by End Use
Rotomolding
2%
Wire & Cable
2%
Raffia
Other
Fiber 2%
7%
1%
Blow Molding
12%
Extrusion
Coating
3%
Pipe & Profile
7%
Injection
Molding
13%
Domestic Demand = 70.9 Million MT
Film & Sheet
51%
Global Total PE Growth vs. GDP
Percent Change, %
14
Total PE Demand
Growth 10-15 = 5.4%
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
GDP
HDPE
LLDPE
LDPE
TotPE
2014
World PE Demand Year Over Year
World Polyethylene Demand
End Use
Percent Change, Year over Year
06
07
08
09
10
%AAGR
'05-‘10
%AAGR
‘10-'15
Film & Sheet
5.1
6.0
-3.9
2.8
5.8
3.1
5.3
Injection Molding
4.2
6.0
-4.8
5.0
5.6
3.2
5.6
Pipe & Profile
8.8
4.6
-2.7
0.8
6.1
3.5
5.8
Extrusion Coating
1.3
0.9
-2.0
-3.7
7.1
0.8
3.8
Blow Molding
3.5
3.4
-5.4
4.0
6.0
2.2
5.4
Wire & Cable
4.5
2.2
-0.6
0.5
5.6
2.5
3.5
Rotomolding
5.7
1.7
0.8
-0.9
6.4
2.9
5.8
Demand
5.1
4.9
- 4.8
2.3
5.6
2.5
5.4
Top Global Polyethylene Producers/Marketers
(Based on Estimate of Marketed Capacity)
2002
ExxonMobil
Dow Chemical
Chevron Phillips
Equistar
Basell
Borealis
BP Chemical
Sinopec
ATOFINA
SABIC
Total
Total Capacity
2015
Capacity % Capacity
-000- MT
Share
7025
11.33
6958
11.22
2760
4.45
2608
4.21
2330
3.76
2316
3.73
1883
3.04
1853
2.99
1745
2.81
1708
2.75
31,186 50.29
65,674
Capacity % Capacity
-000- MT
Share
ExxonMobil
9112
8.65
Dow Chemical
8126
7.72
SABIC
6628
6.30
Sinopec
5644
5.36
5520
5.24
LyondellBasell
5160
4.90
PetroChina
Chevron Phillips
4630
4.40
Borealis/Borouge 4420
4.20
Ineos
3066
2.91
Braskem
3055
2.90
55,361 52.58
Total
Total Capacity
105,286
Global PE Capacity Growth
26.5
15.1 15.1
20.0 21.5
20.5
19.8
2.4 2.8
14.8
2.0 2.1
2.7
1.5
8.9
4.3 4.3
7.4
1.4 1.8
2010
2015
Capacity, Million MT
*including hypothetical capacities +18 Million Metric Tons
Polyethylene Capacity Changes
NAM
Company
WEP
kta Company
MDE
kta Company
1Q-10
Borealis BEL HD (200)
HD/
Borealis SWE LL (90)
SABIC
UK LD 400
NEA / SEA / ISC
Yansab KSA HD 400 Sinopec/SABIC JV
Sharq
KSA HD 400
Qatofin QAT LL
450
2Q-10
GFR HD 250
Borealis SWE LD 350
SABIC NET LD (120)
THA LD 300
Bangkok PE
Panjin Eth.
THA HD 250
CHI HD 300
HD/
IND LL x 125
Zhenghai Ref. CC
CHI
LL 450
MOC
THA
LL 300
TPE
CNOOC & Shell
Indian Oil
3Q-10
Indian Oil
HD/
Borouge UAE LL 600
Baotou Shenhua
CNOOC & Shell
Gail
LG Chem
4Q-10
HD/
CHI LL 600
PTT Chem
Haldia
LBI
Net
kta Increase
kta Company
2,935
THA HD 400
CHI LD 75
IND HD 300
HD/
IND LL 350
HD/
CHI LL 300
CHI HD 75
IND LL 50
2,355
KOS HD
1,065
40
Polimeri
Nova CAN LD x 60
Eur. FRA LD 260 Q-Chem II QAT HD 350
Amir Kabir IRN LD 300
970
Polyethylene Capacity Changes
MDE
NEA / SEA / ISC
4Q-11 3Q-11 2Q-11 1Q-11
Company
Kayan
kta Company
SAR
HD
400
0
ExxonMobil
ExxonMobil
SIN
SIN
HD/LL
LL
650
650
1,300
Zhongyuan
Evolue Japan
CHI
JAP
LL
LL
60
50
110
NEA / SEA / ISC
Company
1Q-12
Net Increase
400
MDE
4Q-12 3Q-12 2Q-12
kta
QAPCO
Llam PC
kta Company
kta
Net Increase
QAT
IRN
LD
HD
250
300
Hanwa Chem.
Sichuan PC
KOS
CHI
LD
HD/LL
30
600
Saudi Polymers SAR
HD
1100
Qilu PC
Fushun PC
CHI
CHI
HD
HD/LL
250
450
2,530
Fushun PC
CHI
HD
350
800
Honam PC
KOS
HD
210
210
0
Polyethylene Imports & Exports
11171
3027
241
2448
-475 -601
6832
-6034
-8012
-1493
-1265-812
1231
60
-1292 -1609
-1094
-2323
2010
2015
Thousand Metric Tons
Global Total PE Operating Rates
Operating Rate, Percent
95
Forecast
90
85
80
75
70
2005
2006
2007
World
2008
2009
WEP
2010
2011
MDE
2012
NEA
2013
2014
NAM
2015
LDPE = New Life
Now
Then
• Obsolete, will
• “Specialty status”
be replaced by
LLDPE
• Tight Supply
globally
• High cost, low
volume plants
• Expanding
margins
• Minimal
investment in
new capacity
• EVA driving
demand
• Limited capacity
build
LDPE Capacity: Autoclave vs. Tubular
Process
120%
Million Metric Tons
7,000
6,000
100%
5,000
80%
4,000
60%
3,000
40%
2,000
20%
1,000
0%
0
NAM
WEP
AUTOCLAVE
MDE
TUBULAR
ASIA
LDPE CAPACITY
PE Demand Year Over Year
U.S./Canada Polyethylene Demand
End Use
Percent Change, Year over Year
06
07
08
09
10
%AAGR
'05-‘10
%AAGR
‘10-'15
Film & Sheet
-1.0
4.1
-11.4
-0.5
6.2
-1.4
2.7
Injection Molding
-1.4
-4.0
-12.0
-4.4
7.5
-4.0
2.6
Pipe & Profile
15.8
-6.7
-8.6
-17.2
19.1
-3.1
3.7
Extrusion Coating -6.9
-2.6
-8.3
-11.0
17.5
-4.9
3.1
Blow Molding
0.3
-2.8
-11.5
-0.8
6.9
-2.0
2.9
Wire & Cable
9.1
-0.3
-3.0
-2.3
4.3
1.4
2.1
Rotomolding
Domestic
Demand
4.9
-5.0
-3.8
-6.0
18.0
-1.2
3.9
3.8
-1.0
-12.5
-5.0
8.5
-2.7
2.9
U S Cost vs. Regional Prices
Cents Per Pound
110
Forecast
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12
NAM Cash Cost, Integrated
NAM LLDPE
WEP LLDPE
CHINA LLDPE (Spot)
U.S.
Trade
Trends
Million Metric Tons
6
Percent
40
Forecast
4
32
2
24
0
16
-2
8
-4
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Imports
Exports
Production as a % of Exports
U.S. Bag Imports
Billion Units
70
Percent
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
04
Q3
05
Q3
06
Q3
07
China Share of Total
Q3
08
Q3
World
09
Q3
10
China
Q3
Global PE Demand Growth
13.2
31.3
21.9
11.6
16.9
2.6
14.7
2.0
1.9
2.3
6.6
4.7
6.4
4.8
2.3
2.6
1.7
3.0
2010
2015
Demand, Million MT
CAGR % increase by type: LD = 3.5%, LL = 6.4%, HD = 5.6%
6.9
5.4
Price Differentiation
(NAM Discounted Prices)
Cents Per Pound
100
2,205
Forecast
90
1,984
80
1,764
70
1,543
60
1,323
50
1,102
40
882
30
Jan-07
661
Oct-07
Jul-08
LDPE GP
Apr-09
Jan-10
Oct-10
HDPE BM
Jul-11
Apr-12
LLDPE C4
U.S. Polyethylene Chain Margins
Cents Per Pound Polyethylene
60
700
Forecast
600
50
500
40
400
30
300
20
200
10
100
0
0
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
Ethane Margin - Ethane Price Minus Shrinkage & 5.5 cpg Extraction Costs
PE Margin - Contract HDPE Blow Molding Non-Int. Including Discounts
Ethylene Margin - Average Acquisition Ethylene Price Minus Ethane Cracking Costs
CTO Projects in China
PE/PP resin from coal
(Photo taken September, 2010)
LLDPE
Shenhua Group
PP
•~
Braskem's "green" ethylene plant already
operating at 90% capacity - Brazil
Published: Monday, September 27, 2010 17:43 (GMT-0400)
PE Take-Away’s
• Hindsight: Energy shift, start up delays, export options,
and unplanned outages transform would-be trough to
record profits for US resin producers – expansions
likely
• Price: increasingly tied to global naphtha price trends,
and spot Asia export options
– unplanned outages remain the wildcard
• New capacity: in MDE and China will be absorbed – less
dramatic impact on pricing and margins
• Packaging and film markets: largest markets continue
recovery although at moderating pace
• Caution: Rapid increases in crude oil price could kill
demand and resin prices could fall as in 2008
Upcoming CMAI Events
Plastics Processors Conference
September 19-21, 2011 (Chicago)
Plastics Processors Conference
October 19-20, 2011 (Dusseldorf)

Ethylene and Polyethylene Global Overview

Transcription

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