Intelligence and Insight You Can Trust

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Intelligence and Insight You Can Trust
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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NATO’s Libya campaign reviewed
12 January 2012
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Diplomacy and military intervention
Dr Dave Sloggett, Jane’s consultant
Coalition lessons
Nick Brown, Jane’s International Defense Review
Post-Ghadaffi Libya
Dave Hartwell, senior analyst, Country Risk
Comparison of Libyan, Syrian and Iranian air defences
Jim O’Halloran , Jane’s Land Based Air Defence
3
Diplomacy and military intervention
4
Background to the Campaign
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• The Arab Spring – The Catalyst that was Tunisia
• Initial United Nations Resolution
• The Evacuation Operations
• Initial Intelligence Collection Opportunity
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• Initial rebel Advance Stalls
• A chaotic retreat towards Benghazi
• The Threat to the Rebels from Gaddhafi
• The French and British No Fly Zone Proposal
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• The plight of the Rebels
• The impact of the Libyan Air Force
• The initial reaction to the No Fly Zone Proposal
• The negotiations at the United Nations
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• Irregular Warfare
• Mission creep: Regime Change
• The Ubiquitous Toyota Land Cruiser
• Heterogeneous Battlefield
• Rebel command & control capability
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The sun set on the Gaddhafi Regime
But what are the long term implications?10
• Initial Force Deployments
• The United States lead before NATO
• NATO Operational Control
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•Storm Shadow used on 14 occasions to target major facilities
• Missions flown from RAF Marham
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The precision of Brimstone
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•Tactical evolution
• Two and Four Ship Combinations of Tornado GR4 and Typhoon
• Three heads are better than one
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•The Sentinel demonstrated its value
• On-board displays and analysis
• Cueing strike packages to areas of potential interest
• Pattern of life analysis
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• The Final Battle for Sirte and Bani Walid
• House-to-house fighting
• An ever-narrower pocket of resistance 16
•Canadian and United States LRMP made up for the loss of Nimrod MR2
• Questions over the balance of surface vessels verses persistent airborne surveillance
• The issues of man-in-the-loop
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Coalition lessons learned
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Coalition air campaign
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Unified Protector innovations
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French Navy dynamic targeting
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Post-Ghadaffi Libya
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Tripoli militia groups
• There are two main militia groups currently in Tripoli:
• Tripoli Brigade
• Misratah Brigade
• Other groups include:
• Fursan Brigade
• Kekka Brigade
• 28 May Brigade (Warfella tribe)
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Libyan government reform plans
• Future Libyan security forces expected to number in the region of
200,000.
• Plan to integrate 50,000 militia fighters into new security apparatus.
• No details on timeframe, structure or command chains.
•
Residual Tripoli -v- Benghazi rivalry?
• Constitutional assembly elections in mid-2012?
Parliamentary and presidential elections in 2013?
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Comparison of Libyan
and Syrian air defences
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Libya and Syria Air Defence
Strategic Weapons
Libya
Strategic Weapons
Syria
S-75 Dvina
S-125 Pechora
S-200 Angara
S-75 Dvina
S-125 Pechora
S-200E Angara
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Libya Air Defence
Libyan S-75 site
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Libya Air Defence
Libyan S-200 missile
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Syria and Libya Air Defence
Tactical SAMs
Libya
Tactical SAMs
Syria
Crotale
9K33 Osa
2K12 Kvadrat
9K31 Strela-1
9K35 Strela-10
9K33 Osa
2K12 Kvadrat
9K31 Strela-1
9K35 Strela-10
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Tactical SAMs
Libya
Tactical SAMs
Syria
96K6 Pantsyr-S1
96K6 Pantsyr-S1E
9K37 Gang
9K40 Buk
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Pantsyr S-1E System
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Man-Portable SAMs
(MANPADS) Libya
Man-Portable SAMs
(MANPADS) Syria
9K32 Strela-2
9K32M Strela-2M
9K32 Strela-2
9K32M Strela-2M
9K36 Strela-3
9K38 Igla
9K338 Igla-S
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Libya Air Defence
Libyan Igla-S on 4x4
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Light Anti-Aircraft Guns
Libya
14.5 mm (twin) ZPU-2
14.5 mm (quad) ZPU-4
23 mm (twin) ZU-23-2
Light Anti-Aircraft Guns
Syria
12.7 mm M53
14.5 mm (twin) ZPU-2
14.5 mm (quad) ZPU-4
20 mm (single) HispanoSuiza
20 mm (triple) HispanoSuiza
23 mm (twin) ZU-23-2
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Self-Propelled Anti-Aircraft
Gun
Libya
Self-Propelled Anti-Aircraft
Gun
Syria
23 mm (quad) ZSU-23-4
23 mm (quad) ZSU-23-4
57 mm (twin) ZSU-57-2
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Medium Anti-Aircraft Guns
Libya
Medium Anti-Aircraft Guns
Syria
30 mm (twin) M53/59
30 mm HS-661
40 mm (single) L/70
57 mm (single) S-60
37 mm (single) M1939
57 mm (single) S-60
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Heavy Anti-Aircraft Guns
Libya
Heavy Anti-Aircraft Guns
Syria
85 mm KS-12
100 mm (single) KS-19
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KS-19 in revetment
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Any questions?
Dr Dave Sloggett, Jane’s consultant
Nick Brown, Jane’s International Defense Review
Dave Hartwell, senior analyst, Country Risk
Jim O’Halloran , Jane’s Land Based Air Defence
Scott Johnson, Jane’s Armed Forces
Jeremy Binnie, Jane’s Defence Weekly
Jeremy.binnie@ihsjanes.com
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Intelligence and Insight You Can Trust

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