initial valuation report

Transcription

INITIAL VALUATION REPORT
November 5th, 2014
Sector: Jewelry
PHU NHUAN JEWELRY J.S.C (HSX: PNJ)
Hoang Hieu Tri
Senior Analyst
Email: trihh@fpts.com.vn
Tel: (84) - 86290 8686 - Ext : 7596
Current price
Target price
Rate of return
Dividend yield
39.000
55.000
+41%
5,1%
-18%
Sell
-7%
Reduce
0%
Neutral
+7%
Add
+18%
Buy
BUY
PNJ’s rate of return after being listed
PNJ – THE FORGOTTEN “GOLDEN” STOCK
200%
190%
180%
VNINDEX
SUMMARY
PNJ
We initiate evaluate PNJ stock of Phu Nhuan Jewelry J.S.C (PNJ –
HOSE). We believe that the current price of PNJ does not reflect
completely the company’s growth prospect due to the lack of
specialized information about PNJ’s business operation and the
concern about the low liquidity of PNJ stock as well. However, we
strongly believe that PNJ is one of the “must – have” stocks thanks
to the leading position of PNJ in Viet Nam jewelry industry and the
growth potential is quite large. Especially, the Circular No
22/2013-TT-BKHCN, which was valid on June 1st 2014, has been
given an once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to PNJ to acquire domestic
market share and to reach out to other foreign markets with an
ambition of becoming one of the biggest Asian jewelry companies.
160%
140%
120%
126%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Trading information
Nov 4th 2014
Current price
39.000
52-week high (VND/share)
39.000
52-week low (VND/Share)
27.000
Listed share (Shares)
75.597.035
Outstanding shares (Shares)
75.597.035
3M Average trading volume
13.593
% current foreign ownership
49%
Chartered Capital (VND bn)
756
Market Cap (VND bn)
2.948
Business Overview
Name
Phu Nhuan Jewelry J.S.C
Address
170E Phan Dang Luu Street, Ward 3,
Phu Nhuan District, HCMC
Core revenue
Fine gold (bar), gold and silver jewelry,
oil and gas (ended since 4Q2014)
Main cost
Raw gold and silver materials, gems,
gemstones, diamonds
Competitive
Advantage
Main risk
Biggest player in Vietnam jewelry
industry, huge store chain
Lost some key persons in design team
and manufacturing team to competitors
Shareholders
Ms. Cao Thi Ngọc Dung
(chairwomen and CEO)
Vietnam Azalea Fund Limited (Mekong
Capital)
Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited
(Dragon Capital)
Route One Investment Company
Rate (%)
10,14%
6,57%
5,04%
Using FCFF valuation method, we expect that the fair value for PNJ
stock in the end of 2014 will be at VND48.700 per share and
VND55.000 per share in the end of 2015. Based on these two
targets, we recommend a BUY position for PNJ stock in short-term,
mid-term and long-term.
 PNJ is the biggest player in Viet Nam jewelry market with the
production ability 8 times higher than the one of next follower.
Moreover, PNJ also owns 70% of Viet Nam jewelry artisan
(higher level than jeweler) and takes more than 5% total market
share.
 The new policy (known as Circular No 22/2013-BKHCN, which
was valid on June 1 2014) may help PNJ to dominate jewelry
market which is highly fragmented. According to this circular, all
jewelry manufacturers have to stamp the purity of gold on each
gold jewelry to terminate the cheating business in gold
jewelry market in all over Viet Nam.
 We expect that net revenue 2014 of PNJ will reach VND8.328 bn
(-6,6 yoy) due to the downtrend of global gold price, however, net
profit 2014 of PNJ will reach VND261 bn (+55% yoy) thanks to
the increasing of retail business in both gold segment and silver
segment and the unusual profit more than VND36 bn from the
transfer SFC. Net revenue 2015 is expected to decrease 5%
compared to 2014 given that PNJ will no longer consolidate SFC
result in their consolidated financial statement, however, we
HSX: PNJ
Deutsche Bank AG & Deutsche Asset
Management (Asia) Ltd
4,83%
VOF Investment Limited (VinaCapital)
3,94%
Other internal shareholders
3,9%
Other local shareholders
>30%
Other foreign shareholders
<10%
Main competitors
expect that net profit 2015 of PNJ will reach VND319 bn (+21%
yoy).
 The growth potential of Viet Nam jewelry market is quite
large. In 16 years from 1997 to 2013, Viet Nam has imported
more than 326 tonnes of gold jewelry and more than 890 tonnes
of gold bar that cost around $48 bn. The annual demand of gold
product is about 19 tonnes of gold jewelry and 52 tonnes of gold
bar.
Doji Jewelry Corporation (Doji)
 PNJ has recently adjusted their sale policies with several added
(unclear information)
incentive terms to increase their market share. Customers may
reimburse PNJ jewelries (excluding silver jewelries) and will be
refund at least 70% of the invoice at any time after purchasing.
For some special products, the refund rate may be at 90% to
98% of the invoice. Compared to the refund ate of other
competitors that is at most 70% of the invoice, we believe that
this is ambitious move of PNJ to acquire more market share from
all other competitors thanks to their financial strength and their
huge sales network. (More details).
Sai Gon Jewelry Company Limited (SJC)
Bao Tin Minh Chau Jewelry and Gemstone Co.Ltd
Sacombank Jewelry (SBJ)
 PNJ has been the only listed jewelry company in Viet Nam.
PNJ’s foreign ownership has been always full with the presence
of almost foreign financial institutions in Viet Nam as Dragon
Capital, VinaCapital, Mekong Capital, Vietnam Holdings…
However, the liquidity of PNJ stock is quite low given that the
stock price is not fluctuated significantly for a long time and the
ownership is quite solid (internal shareholders own more than
40% of share capital).
Table 1: Financial statistics and forecast for 2013 – 2022
Indicator
Net Income
Unit
2013
2014F
2015F
2016F
2018F
2020F
2022F
VND bn
8.914
8.328
7.941
9.006
11.715
15.337
20.035
Gross profit
VND bn
670
773
917
1.139
1.717
2.501
3.526
NPAT
VND bn
163
264
319
400
575
782
1.005
EPS
VND
2.153
3.496
4.225
5.288
7.605
10.351
13.300
DPS
VND
1.238
2.011
2.430
3.042
4.374
5.953
7.649
DPS/EPS
%
58%
58%
58%
58%
58%
58%
58%
Income growth rate
%
33%
-7%
-5%
13%
14%
14%
14%
GP growth rate
%
12%
15%
19%
24%
22%
20%
18%
NPAT growth rate
%
-36%
62%
21%
25%
19%
16%
13%
Net profit margin
%
8%
9%
12%
13%
15%
16%
18%
ROE
%
12%
19%
21%
24%
27%
29%
29%
ROA
%
6%
8%
9%
11%
13%
15%
16%
P/E
times
17,5
10,8
8,9
7,1
5,0
3,6
2,8
P/B
times
2,3
2,1
1,9
1,7
1,4
1,0
0,8
Source: FPTS
www.fpts.com.vn
Bloomberg - FPTS<GO> | 2
HSX: PNJ
Investment Risks
The biggest risk of PNJ is the loss of key designers and key
jewelry artisans to their competitors as Doji or SJC. However, we
believe that PNJ has well controlled this risk (See more details).
Risk of input raw material volatility (gold and silver)

Wholesale channel: almost gold raw material is supplied
by PNJ’s customers, PNJ only gains from outsourcing fee,
thus, PNJ can avoid the risk of gold price volatility.

Retail channel: PNJ use an amount of 5% on their gross
profit margin to hedge the volatility of gold price. More
precisely, if the gold price change in the frame of +/- 5%,
PNJ will not adjust their retail price to reassure their
customers. If the gold price change out of the frame above,
PNJ will adjust flexibly their retail price according to the level
of volatility.
Risk of safety of retail stores: Due to the characteristic of jewelry
products that have small size but high value, PNJ has applied these
policies below to ensure the safety for all their retail stores:

Each PNJ store in any commercial shopping center has a
mechanical safe which is used in bank and has the highest
safety level with the average price 3 times higher than other
normal safes. In the end of each day, all units have to follow
the rule “minimum inventory” and all jewelry products have
to be secured in these mechanical safes.

For each retail stores, PNJ setup a “safe storage” which is
also a mechanical safe using in bank. This “safe storage” is
built fixed to the structure of the building that do not allow
anyone to displace or to move.

All retail stores have the security camera system. If any
illegal penetration is detected, this system will alert the
police, the security department of PNJ and even some key
leader in BOD. Moreover, all jewelry products secured in
safe of PNJ are insured.
th
On October 15 2014, a group of thieves broke into Maximax
Cong Hoa supermarket and tried to break the safe of several
jewelry stores and banks. Although some companies lost
their assets, PNJ had no damage in this event given that
these thieves could not break PNJ’s safe (reference link
[VIE])
Risk of low liquidity of PNJ stock: According to FPTS
research, the average trading volume of PNJ stock, after being
adjusted through stock split and bonus shares, is more than
46.000 share per trading day. The main reason of this situation
is the solid ownership of PNJ, in which internal shareholders hold
more than 40% capital share, foreign investors hold 49% capital
share and external shareholders only hold 11% capital share.
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HSX: PNJ
VALUATION BY FCFF METHOD AND P/E METHOD
LONG TERM VALUATION USING FCFF METHOD
DCF ASSUMPTION
Value
VALUATION SYNTHESIS
WACC 2014
10,8%
Assumption duration
22%
Corporate tax rate (*)
unit: VND bn
9 years
4.269
Total present value of cash flow
Cost of equity
15,0%
(+) Cash & ST investments
Risk free (**)
8,7%
(-) Short & Long term debt
1.133
Risk premium
9,3%
Enterprise value
6.190
0,88
Minority interest
241
Beta coefficient (***)
CAGR
788
12,0%
Equity less minority interest
3,0%
Outstanding shares (million)
Terminal growth rate
Price discounted to present
3.683
76
48.717
(*) Tax rate 22% for 2014 and 2015, 20% from 2016 onwards
Cost of equity
11,0%
(**) Risk free using 10 years government bond yield
Dividend yield
3,9%
(***) Beta coefficient is the average of others jewelry companies in the world
Target price for 2015
54.896
Period
Market price on
Nov 04th 2014
End of 2014
(on Dec 31th 2014)
End of 2015
(on Dec 31th 2015)
Target price
39.000
48.700
55.000
Rate of return
25%
41%
REFERENCE VALUATION IN SHORT TERM USING COMPARISON METHODS
Market
Cap.
(VND bn)
Bloomberg code
Company
PNJ VN Equity
Phu Nhuan Jewelry J.S.C
PNDORA DC Equity
Pandora A/S
600612 CH Equity
Lao Feng Xiang Co Ltd
Market
price Nov
4th /2014
(VND)
P/E
2.948
39.000
13,5
226.198
1.769.471
23,3
45.009
102.748
P/E discounted
Net sales
12T (VND
bn)
3 years
sales
growth
ROE
2013
10.017
0,2%
17,4%
15,7
39.221
11,7%
45,4%
9,4
6,6
111.138
32,6%
29,4%
1929 HK Equity
Chow Tai Fook
288.975
28.941
14,8
10,3
210.218
32,6%
20,7%
CFRUY US Equity
Cie Financiere Richmont SA
994.858
173.260
18,0
12,1
300.771
16,0%
18,7%
SIG LN Equity
SIGNET JEWELERS LTD
202.695
2.532.910
24,0
16,3
97.519
7,0%
14,4%
MC FP Equity
LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton
1.786.549
3.526.282
20,0
15,3
844.149
13,0%
12,7%
TIF US Equity
Tiffany & Co
259.261
2.008.027
22,5
15,1
89.015
9,5%
8,5%
PRANDA TB Equity
Pranda Jewelry
1.691
4.137
15,7
12,2
2.318
-3,2%
6,2%
7937 JP Equity
Tsutsumi Jewelry
9.937
495.148
26,5
19,8
5.138
2,5%
2,7%
GITG IN Equity
Gitanjali Gems
1.991
20.363
16,1
15,0
43.392
13,5%
0,9%
18,6
13,6
Average
EPS 2014 (F)
P/E
PNJ target price
3.496
VND per share
11,6
12,6
13,6
14,6
15,6
40.679
44.176
47.672
51.168
54.664
The average PER of other major jewelry companies in the world is 13,6 after being discounted using country risk
discount method. Based on this result, the fair value for PNJ stock is expected VND47.000 per share.
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HSX: PNJ
BUSINESS OPERATION OVERVIEW
The unique position of PNJ in Viet Nam jewelry industry
PNJ was rated as the 3rd largest jewelry manufacturer in the world by
production capacity by Plimsoll, an individual UK organization. In
2012, PNJ inaugurated their new jewelry factory in HCMC that is still
the biggest one in Viet Nam until now. The current production
capacity of this factory is more than 4 billion units (8 times higher than
the one of SJC – the 2nd largest jewelry manufacturer in Viet Nam).
Besides, PNJ was the 3rd biggest retailer in Viet Nam (after Saigon
Co.op supermarket and NguyenKim electronic appliance) before
downgrading to the 6th position after BigC supermarket, SJC and
Mobile World.
PNJ is the only listed jewelry company in Viet Nam and is also the
biggest outsourcing jewelry manufacturer for several other jewelry
and gemstone companies in Viet Nam.
Main product segments
Main competitors of PNJ
Gold bar, gold jewelry, silver jewelry, accessories, watch, gemstone
and diamond inspection service.
Company
No
1
Doji Jewelry Corporation
2
Sai Gon Jewelry Company Limited (SJC)
3
Bao Tin Minh Chau Jewelry and Gemstone
Co.Ltd
4
Viet Nam Agribank Gold Corporation J.S.C
5
Viet Nam Gold Investment and Trading
Corporation
6
Kim Ngoc Phu Co.Ltd
7
Mi Hong Co.Ltd
8
Ngoc Hai Gemstone and Jewelry Co.Ltd
9
Ngoc Tham Gemstone and Jewelry Co.Ltd
11
Phuc Thanh Jewelry Co.Ltd
12
Phuong Nam Jewelry Commercial Corporation
13
Sacombank Jewelry (SBJ)
14
Phu Quy Gemstone and Jewelry
15
Vietinbank Gold and Jewelry
Source: FPTS
Gold bar trading (brand name SJC): This segment does not
contribute significantly to PNJ result due to the low gross profit
margin (GPM rate at 0,02%, which means gross profit of selling
each VND35 mn gold bar is only VND70.000). However, PNJ
continue to maintain this business segment given that trading gold
bar is a basic demand of Vietnamese and customers may be
interested in other PNJ’s products as jewelry, watch, accessories…
after purchasing gold bar.
Wholesale gold and silver jewelry: Main customers of PNJ in this
segment is other jewelry companies in all over Viet Nam that do not
have the ability of mass production jewelry products. These
outsourcing products do not coincident with PNJ current product
portfolio and have the lower sophistication, lower target market
segment than PNJ jewelries. According to our research, at least 5
companies on the left table (including some jewelry companies
owned by banks) are wholesale customers of PNJ for a long time.
Besides, to develop this segment in higher level, PNJ is aiming to
the new target wholesale customers, which are companies that
have the demand of using bulk jewelries with stamped logo
company as gift.
Retail jewelry: This is the main segment that contributes greatest
proportion in PNJ net profit each year with highest growth rate,
including 03 main brand names that aim to 03 market segments as
below:
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HSX: PNJ
However, the proportion of CAO Fine Jewelry is quite small
(1% total revenue) given that the luxury market in Viet Nam
is not developed yet to boom phase like Chinese market.
PNJ Gold: Aim to the customer segment from 25 to 45 years old
that their income and consumption budget are from the medium
level upward.
PNJ Silver: Aim to the young customers from 15 to 25 years old
that love the new fashion and want to show up their ego.
CAO Fine Jewelry: Aim to the luxury customer segment as high
income customers, overseas Vietnamese, tourists… who always
ready to spend more money for luxury jewelries
Export jewelry: PNJ is the only jewelry exporter in Viet Nam.
Thanks to the ability of jewelry mass production that meet high
requirements of overseas customers, the export segment of PNJ is
growing stably and mostly aims to some main market as Germany,
US, Denmark…
Manufacture and sell fashionable accessories, retail brand
watch: These two segments take a small proportion in PNJ’s
revenue structure and are not the main competitive advantage of
PNJ. However, in long-term, given that the prospect for these two
segments is quite large, PNJ still maintain their business activities
to wait until their “uptrend period”.
The certification ISO 17205 is issued by ISO
(International Organization Standardization) for the
inspection companies that have the ability to test, to
inspect and to issue trusted technical certification.
Therefore, PNJ’s gemstone certification is accepted in
all over the world.
Gemstone inspection service: PNJ was the first Vietnamese
jewelry company that had the certification ISO 17025. Besides, PNJ
is currently applying the classification and inspection standards
equivalent to those of GIA (Gemological Institution of America – the
leading gemstone inspection organization in the world).
Chart 1: Stats of net revenue and profit of PNJ (parent company) in the period of 1989 - 2013
20.000
300
Net revenue and net profit increased
strongly between 2008 and 2012
thanks to the uptrend of gold price,
then turned back sharply after the
downtrend of gold price and the
intervention of the State Bank of
Vietnam, in which they took the
monopoly role in gold market
18.000
16.000
14.000
17.335
250
13.007
200
12.000
9.625
10.000
8.000
Net revenue
7.604
Net profit
6.428
6.000
4.000
2.000
1.801
… 1.254
871
724
447
71 217 142 198 131 257 213 347 183 203 218 377
100
3.501
2.233
-
50
-
(*) See more details about the historical price of gold by various currency (USD, VND and CNY) and the
correlation between these factors and PNJ’s operating result during years at Appendix 2 (Click here)
www.fpts.com.vn
150
Source: PNJ, FPTS
HSX: PNJ
Value chain of PNJ business activities
Raw
material
Retail
Design
Distribution
1. Input raw materials: Input raw materials of PNJ are mostly raw
gold, raw silver and finished gemstone and diamond. The main
characteristic of these raw materials is the high frequency of price
volatility that causes many risks to those companies that do not
have an effective raw material price control method.
To minimize the negative effect of raw material price volatility, PNJ
is applying these policies below:
Manufacture
Raw
materials
Origin
Supplier
Gold material
Viet Nam
Local customers
Local suppliers
Silver material
Belgium
Viet Nam
Metalor
Other
Gold bar
Viet Nam
Local customers
Hong Kong
RMC
Thailand
Creative Gems (BKK)
Hong Kong
Yakubov
Hong Kong
Forte
Belgium
Fischler
Viet Nam
Local customers
Gemstones
Diamond
For raw gold material: Due to the restricted import gold policy of
the State Bank of Viet Nam (SBV), the main raw material source of
PNJ is come from the procurement from local customers or from
local suppliers that collect raw material from various sources. These
raw gold materials are separated into 2 groups: SJC group (gold
bar with brand name SJC that the commercial price is unified in all
over Viet Nam and is adjusted exclusively by SBV) is used for gold
trading activities; non-SJC group or unbranded gold bar are
bought with the price of fine gold (99,99%) that is lower significantly
than the SJC gold (~15%) and nearly equal to the international
price. The second group is currently main raw material for gold
jewelry of PNJ thanks to its low cost. According to our research, the
supplying source for this kind of gold material in Viet Nam is quite
large, thus, the risk of lacking raw gold material of PNJ is negligible.
For silver raw material: Given that the import activities of this
material is not restricted, PNJ has imported raw silver material from
some Belgium suppliers.
According to Mr. Le Hung Dung, chairman of Saigon Jewelry
Company Limited (SJC), total domestic gold of Viet Nam is
estimated at 500 tonnes (reference link [VIE]).
According to FPTS research, total imported gold in Viet Nam
in the last 16 years reached 1.200 tonnes (more details).
Therefore, we believe that the domestic gold supplying ability
is quite enough for local manufacturers, given the fact that
PNJ’s annual raw gold demand has been around 4,8 tonnes
that scored 9% of total imported raw gold material each year.
For gemstones: These materials are mainly imported from
Thailand and Hong Kong given that these two countries have the
technology and experience of grinding gemstone that Viet Nam do
not have.
Diamond: PNJ has imported diamond from various sources that
are inspected strictly by experienced experts of PNJ.
Commonly, risk of supplying source for raw material and risk of
price volatility are negligible given that PNJ can flexibly transfer
these risks to customers by adjusting their product price tolerably
(See more details about investment risk).
2. Research, design and develop products (R&D): This is one of
the most important stage in PNJ business operation, which affect
directly to the position, reputation and brand recognition of PNJ.
PNJ have a R&D department where designers create new jewelry
products following new fashion trend. There are more than 50
persons in this department, including about 20 “core persons” (4
senior experts), that follow the specialized process below:
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HSX: PNJ
Designing processes:
1.
2.
3.
Hand-sketching.
Using specialized software to complement handsketching and to create 3D model (using Cad-cam
modelling – one of the most popular design method
thanks to its accuracy and efficiency). Some popular
specialized software are Jewel CAD, Rhinoceros (Rhino)
and Matrix.
The prototype after being approved by the R&D
committee and the product committee will transfer to the
product department and sales department that decide the
production scale based on the market demand and the
marketing strategy of PNJ.






Plan in advance the design project for the next following
years.
Annually host “PNJ jewelry design contest” in all over
Viet Nam to find potential designer..
Scholarship funding for potential students in design
faculty of famous universities to attract these talents
after graduation.
Take part in local and international jewelry exhibition
and contest to catch up new fashion trend and to “brain
storm” for new creative ideas.
Discuss with product department and sales department
using analyzed data about market demand, design,
style… to identify the current trend and build up the new
products R&D project.
The prototype of new products has to pass several
inspection test before being approved by product
committee (PC) and launched to mass production.
 The main risk in this stage is the probability of losing key
designers to other competitors. Another noticeable risk is the ability
of catching up new fashion trend of PNJ’s designers. According to
our research, the renovation rate in this department is low, about
4% (2 – 3 persons each year that are almost enforcement person
while the renovation rate of designer and creator is negligible).
3. Production of PNJ that includes technology factor and human
factor:
All production processed of PNJ follow the “Resin molding
technology”. The crude embryos, after being created using
the “Resin molding” process, will be transfer to the jeweler to
be attached gemstones, polished, honed, metal plated… all
these above processes are crafted manually and are totally
depended on the craftsmanship and experience of jeweler to
become perfect. According to our research, the luxury level
and price of jewelry is highly correspondent with the need of
manual processes and the craftsmanship level of jeweler.
One of the most important characteristic of jewelry industry is
the loss amount of raw material (gold and silver powder)
during production has a remarkable value. Thus, jewelry
manufacturer must have the technology and recovering
procedure to collect these loss amounts and to reallocate
them to the COGS. More precisely, PNJ use nearly 5 tonnes
of gold each year, the loss rate of raw material is nearly 1%,
that means the loss amount of gold raw material is about 50kg
(which cost VND44 bn). Thanks to the deep investment in the
high-end production line and the modern recovering
technology (through the air filter and the specialized
processes applied for the jewelers), PNJ have minimized the
loss rate and have recovered almost their loss materials.
However, excluding PNJ, the problem above is truly a threat
for other jewelry manufacturers due to their low internal forces
in finance and experience.
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Technology and production ability factor: In Dec 2012, PNJ
inaugurated their new jewelry factory, which is the biggest one in
Viet Nam, at Go Vap district (HCMC) with total area of 3.500 m 2,
including 6 stages divided to 30 production groups. Total current
production capacity of this factory is 4 million units per year and is
8 times higher than the production capacity of the 2nd biggest
jewelry manufacturer in Viet Nam (known as SJC with total capacity
around 500.000 unit per year, this factory was inaugurated in May
2015). Almost main equipment in this new factory are imported from
Germany and Italia, two leading countries in mechanical industry
and jewelry industry in the world, respectively.
 PNJ has only run 50% of their capacity by mechanical aspect (equal
to 4 million unit per year), but more than 90% capacity of current human
resource. Therefore, we believe that the unexploited capacity of this
factory is enough for PNJ production demand from now on to 2022 and
the capital expenditure demand in this period is not remarkable
Human factor: is mostly concerned with the jewelers. Due to the
specific characteristic of jewelry industry, the craftsmanship of
jeweler is the most important factor than affect totally to the quality,
the perfection of jewelry and even the reputation and position of
jewelry company in the industry (See more details about jewelry
career tree [VIE]). As a leading company in jewelry industry, almost
HSX: PNJ
“Jewelers are the person who directly make various kind of
jewelry as ring, earring, bangle, necklet, medal… using
precious metal as gold, silver, platinum, bronze following the
available design model. Each jeweler is in charge one of
numerous processes in whole jewelry production as: honing
and assembling jewelry parts together, attaching gemstones
in an assembled jewelry or cutting, grinding and polishing
gemstones.
High-level jeweler, aka jewelry expert, is classified as
“jewelry artisan” who cannot only do many processes
professionally but also may create new designs and may
satisfy many difficult requirement of customers. They can
disassembly many kind of jewelries (gold, silver,
gemstones…) into many individual parts before adjusting and
re-assembling them into a new perfect jewelry. Moreover,
they can engrave many kind of motifs and patterns in jewelry
to increase its sophistication and perfection.”
Source: nghekimhoan.wordpress.com
Net revenue by region of PNJ Gold
Southeast (including HCMC)
77%
North of
Viet Nam
7%
Mekong River Delta
8%
Central of Viet Nam
8%
Source: PNJ, FPTS
Net revenue by region of PNJ Silver
Southeast (including HCMC)
63%
North of
Viet Nam
23%
Mekong River Delta
7%
Central of Viet Nam
7%
PNJ’s jewelers are freshmen and are trained from beginning. PNJ
always follow-up these jewelers to detect the excellent ones to
enhance their craftsmanship through advanced training courses
and also increase their remuneration to ensure their dedication for
the company. Currently, PNJ have 800 jewelers with the annual
renovation rate around 10%. Among these jewelers, more than 160
senior ones are classified as “jewelry artisan” that is equal to 70%
of total “jewelry artisan” of Viet Nam.
Losing high-level employees (especially jewelry artisan) to other
competitors is a regular risk of PNJ during years. To minimize this risk,
PNJ has applied two main methods, which are the remuneration policy
corresponding with the level and experience (including ESOP
policy) and the corporate culture policy that help to tighten the
relationship between employee and the company. We admit that
PNJ is well controlling this risk.
4. Distribution:
a) Distributing wholesale jewelry: wholesale customers will receive
directly their products at PNJ or PNJ will transport to them under
the protection of police.
b) Distributing to internal sales network: Currently, PNJ have 4 main
depots at HCMC, Can Tho city, Da Nang city and Ha Noi city with
the highest level of security given that inventories on these depot
have small size but quite high value. To transport jewelry in long
distance to Da Nang depot or to Ha Noi depot, PNJ have a
specialized transporter team using airway and dedicated cars under
the protection of police. The distributing activities of PNJ is
executed weekly to ensure the continuity of product flow in all over
Viet Nam.
5. Retail: As of the end of 3Q2014, PNJ had 175 retail stores (gold
and silver jewelry, gemstone…) with two main brain name as PNJ
Gold and PNJ Silver. The number of retail store is expected to
increase to 300 in 2017. In the past, PNJ developed parallel their
retail stores and their shopping mall stores that aim to various
customer segments. However, after strictly reconsidering the
effectiveness using Value Partner’s advices, PNJ has adjusted the
target segment for each store to focus to the real potential customer
in each selling point; the selling effectiveness was changed to the
“sales per square” method as well.
PNJ’s stores are classified by 3 main types:
PNJ has maintained two price policies as:


Indicated price: Indicate by PNJ and is included:
Crafting fee + design + profit + raw material
(gold/silver…) price. This group of price takes more
than 90% of total revenue and is popular in retail
channel.
Basic price by “raw material price + crafting
fee”: This group takes a small proportion in PNJ’s
total revenue and is commonly used in wholesale
channel.
www.fpts.com.vn



Type 1: Total capital expenditure and inventories value
are about VND12 – 14 bn
are about VND8 bn
are about VND6 bn
HSX: PNJ
For the customers who want to reimburse their products, PNJ
have applied the most attractive refund policy in Viet Nam
jewelry market (more details [VIE]) with some key points as
below:





Discount 5 – 10% value on bill within 3 days.
Discount at most 30% value on bill with no time
limited.
Discount 2 – 7% value on bill for diamonds.
Discount 20% value of jewelry coat.
No imbursement for silver jewelry due to the high
chemical sensitive (denaturation) of this metal.
All processes in inventory management and selling activities are
executed through the ERP system named Xman with two
associated modules. Therefore, PNJ’s leaders and other
departments can access real-time to the operating result of each
store that help to optimize the management effectiveness and risk
controlling. Moreover, this ERP system can also support for the
promotional programs, sales campaigns, sales-off strategy of PNJ.
Details about the ERP system of PNJ
Management processes
of the ERP Xman system
The ERP system of PNJ named Xman (eXtra Management) is
developed based on the 3-tier client/server architecture. More
precisely, the end user interface (used for PNJ’s departments and
even for the board of director) is totally based on web platform. End
users may use this software through usual web browser without any
installation. This system can ensure the highest secure level by
using the right decentralization system and the ability of load
balancing (which ensures the stability and minimize the overload
situation of whole system) and the high accuracy by using uniformly
in the overall internal system.
According to our research, this ERP system is a unique one in Viet
Nam jewelry industry given that it can connect and synchronize all
modules of production processes with the modules of distribution
and retail; therefore, it helps PNJ to minimize the ineffective median
cost.
Main competitors
Retail network of PNJ
Comparing by production capacity, market share and internal
forces, PNJ have 3 main competitors as Sai Gon Jewelry Company
Limited (SJC), Doji Jewelry Corporation (Doji) and Bao Tin Minh
Chau Jewelry and Gemstone Co. Ltd (BTMC).
At Hanoi market, which is the biggest market in the North of Viet
Nam, PNJ have currently hold the 2nd position after BTMC and
before Doji.
According to our research, jewelries of BTMC have the traditional
and classical style that meet the demand of North customers who
hesitate to change their consumption habit. Therefore, BTMC still
hold the leading position in Hanoi market. However, considering the
ability of production, human resource, design quality, product
diversity…, BTMC is still the follower of PNJ.
In the rest regions, PNJ hold the leading position above Doji and
SJC. According to our estimation, the current production capacity
of PNJ is 4 times higher than the total capacity of both SJC and
Doji. More over, we find that in the recent 2 years, at some key
selling points of PNJ (that are deeply researched about customer’s
demand, traffic density, and consumption taste…), Doji rooted their
Source: PNJ
www.fpts.com.vn
HSX: PNJ
new stores to save market research expenses. We expect that this
emergence of Doji near PNJ’s stores will create a specialized
jewelry shopping town follow the philosophy “Birds of a feather flock
together” that help to form jewelry consumption habit of customers.
We believe that this circumstance is a positive factor for both PNJ
and Doji given that the demand of professional and reputable
jewelry selling points is increasing remarkably in Viet Nam.
According to Mr. Huynh Trung Chanh, vice president of Viet Nam
Gold Traders Association, major jewelry companies have only
taken about 20% of market share, the rest 80% of market share
is belong to the minor jewelry manufacturers (almost small
household companies) and the common market share is strongly
fragmented for years. According to PNJ’s estimation, they have
achieved around 25% of 20% total market share above, that means
their real market share is about 5% and they are currently the
biggest market share holder in Viet Nam. Therefore, we believe that
growth potential for PNJ is quite large.
The Circular No. 22, the turning point of Viet Nam jewelry market
and the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for PNJ
Summary of the Circular 22/2013/TT-BKHCN which was valid on
June 1st 2014



Any balance used to identify gold purity in jewelry have
to be certificated and lead sealed by the provincial
Department of Standards, Metrology and Quality before
using in commercial business.
All jewelry manufacturers and retailers have to declare
transparency all technical parameters of gold jewelry as the
gold purity (age of gold), sort of products, information of
gemstone, other metals or materials attached with the
jewelry… following the national standards. Each gold
jewelry must have to be stamped the purity of gold, the
serial of product and do not have any chemical toxic
before purchasing in commercial market.
If any jewelry manufacturer or retailer cannot meet the
requirements of the Circular No 22, they can be revoked
business license from 01 to 06 months and will be
punished by a fine of 5 times value of the qualityviolated product or a fine of VND2 bn for metrology
violation.
Domestic jewelry market situation before appearance of the
Circular 22:
Almost customers are cheated in purchasing jewelry at the small
jewelry stores given that real gold purity in their products is
significantly lower than the listed declaration of manufacturers.
www.fpts.com.vn
HSX: PNJ
The processes of cheating gold purity in jewelry of small and
household jewelry manufacturers are as bellow:
According to the Saigon Jewelry Association (SJA), almost
small and household jewelry manufacturers and retailers by
gold jewelries with the purity of gold at 65% from some major
manufacturers (that the specific terms is “Chanh” in
Vietnamese or also known as wholesale manufacturer – PNJ
is the biggest “chanh” in HCMC and in Viet Nam as well). The
real purity of gold in these products is usually 61% while the
retailer sell them with the price of 67% gold product.
1. The international standard purity of gold in 18k gold is 75%,
however, the cheaters above have decreased this rate
down to 65% - 68% (equivalent to 16k gold – 17k gold),
some others dared to reduce to 54% - 60% (equivalent to
13k gold and 14k gold) even though they still stamped the
mark of 18k gold on their products.
2. They can self-produce the counterfeit product above or
outsource to other major manufacturers (known as “Chanh”
in Vietnamese).
3. Sell these counterfeit products as 18k gold price (in fact they
are only 13k – 14k – 15k -16k gold) and enjoy a premium
amount by cheating gold purity. There are two ways of
cheating as: a) Cheating in production by combining other
metals with gold; b) Cheating in measuring gold purity by
using adjusted measure devices.
4. To compete and survive in jewelry market, these cheaters
offer a quite low crafting fee than the major prestigious
manufacturers as PNJ, SJC, Doji… given that they still
ensure their profits by cheating gold purity.
The cheating situation above happens popularly in all over Viet
Nam due to 02 main reasons:


The jewelry manufacturers get benefits above the lack
of knowledge of customers and the lack of associated
legislation and the lack of effectiveness of sanctions.
Given that the small and household jewelry manufacturers
have used the old production technology in a small scale,
they have met many difficulties in recovering loss raw
materials in production (gold, silver and platinum powder)
to reallocate in their COGS. Therefore, these manufacturers
choose the cheating gold purity method and transfer the risk
to their customers, instead of transfer these loss amounts
to the commercial price, that certainly makes their price
higher than the similar products of major manufacturers.
Commonly, due to the cheating business above, customers who
want to reimburse their counterfeit jewelry products (that they do
not even realize) have to come back exactly to their purchasing
store to enjoy the best refund price with the discount rate at least
30% upwards, this is also called as the “sell your jewelry at where
you buy it” situation. Thus, before appearance of the Circular 22,
customers have to suffer all risks in purchasing gold jewelry
from small and household jewelry manufacturers.
www.fpts.com.vn
HSX: PNJ
Domestic jewelry market situation after appearance of the
Circular 22:
According to the Saigon Jewelry Association (SJA), from the
validation of the Circular 22 up to now, more than 50% of 3.000
members of SJA in HCMC had to postpone their business given
that these members do not have any effective method to handle
their counterfeit jewelry inventory. They cannot continue their
productions due to low competitive ability with the similar products
of major manufacturers as PNJ, Doji… according to Circular No 22,
they cannot melt and re-purify all their gold products as well due to
the high-related expenses.
In the other side, major manufacturers as PNJ, SJC, and Doji are
enjoying numerous benefits from the Circular 22. Especially, PNJ is
the most supported player in Viet Nam market thanks to their
biggest market share and outstanding production scale compared
with their two main competitors.
We strongly believe that 2H2014 will be the “warm-up” period of
the Circular No 22 for small and household manufacturers to solve
their remaining problems, to learn and to adapt with this new policy
(that was issued on Sept 26 th 2014). From 2015 onwards, the
related government agencies will tighten their inspection and
monitoring activities in jewelry market to ensure the rational benefit
of customers. Therefore, we expect that major players as PNJ, SJC
and Doji will acquire the current fragmented market share and the
market will remove the cheating players, one by one.
Viet Nam jewelry industry growth potential and PNJ’s prospect
Jewelry consumption per capita in some
countries in 2009
260
US
214
EU
97
Hong Kong
81
Japan
Worldwide
43
Viet Nam
(in 2012)
39
Ma Cao
36
According to Mr. Cao Xuan Lanh, deputy CEO of SJC, the gold
jewelry demand in Viet Nam is quite large with the average growth
rate of 20 – 25% per year, in a circumstance that Viet Nam is the
7th biggest gold consumer (including gold bar, coin and gold jewelry)
in the world. In 2013, Viet Nam imported more than 92 tonnes of
gold that cost $4,2 bn, and the demand was just lower than China,
India, US, Turkey, Thailand and Germany (See more details).
19
China
0
100
200
300
Source: FPTS, Frost & Sullivan
www.fpts.com.vn
According to Doji’s estimation in 2012 by collecting and analyzing
data of World Gold Council, the total jewelry spent of Vietnamese
has been $3,5 bn per year ( source [VIE]). Thus, the jewelry spent
per capita of Viet Nam has been around $39,4 (~ VND836.000).
This consumption rate was lower than the global rate at $43
researched in 2009, given that Viet Nam has been one of the top
20 gold jewelry consumers in the world for years (the 2nd biggest
gold consumer in ASEAN, after Indonesia).
Noticeably, among the top gold importers in the world, the
proportion of gold jewelry in total imported gold of Viet Nam is just
HSX: PNJ
Gold jewelry consumption per capita by
total imported value (USD)
UAE
Hong Kong
Other Gulf
Saudi Arabia
Greater China
Russia
China
India
Egypt
USA
UK
Taiwan
Italy
World total
South Korea
Indonesia
Japan
Vietnam
Turkey
Thailand
303
Source: FPTS, WGC
13%, which is one of the lowest rate (excluding Thailand, Germany
and Switzerland given that these countries have imported raw gold
just only for their production industries). Compared this rate with the
similar countries that have the tradition of gold jewelry consumption
as India (62%), China (63%), US (63%), Turkey (42%), UAE (81%),
Russia (100%), Arab Saudi (76%), the rate of 13% of Viet Nam
proves two main characteristic of Viet Nam jewelry market as
bellow:
22


14
6
0
200
Considering the value of gold imported in 2013, the gold
jewelry imported spent per capita of Vietnamese people was
only $6,2, that was lower than the global average rate of $14
and was quite lower than the spent amount of $39 for jewelry
in common that we estimate. This comparison proves that
almost purchased jewelries in Viet Nam are produced
domestically.
The domestic raw gold material demand for jewelry
production is quite large, even when the State Bank of Viet
Nam has taken the monopoly control in gold bar market.
The gold accumulation demand of Vietnamese people is
still high to avoid and minimize the negative effect of
inflation risk and policy volatility risk.
Based on the analysis above, we highly appreciate the probability
of switching consumption demand from gold bar to gold jewelry and
jewelry in common, in a circumstance that the macroeconomic of
Viet Nam and the correlation between USD and VND are becoming
stable, and the income per capita of Vietnamese people is
increasing significantly.
Considering the potential growth of Viet Nam jewelry industry
above, after taking the leading position in Viet Nam market, PNJ
have an ambition to compete fairly with other leading Asian jewelry
corporation in domestic market in the future. These giant players
are expected to deep penetrate in Viet Nam market following the
WTO and AFTA commitment, in which Viet Nam has to open the
domestic jewelry market since 2015 and decrease the import tax
rate down to 0% since 2018. To realize this ambition, in 2011, PNJ
signed a consulting contract with Value Partners Management
Consulting (Italia). This consulter inspected all business,
management activities, strategy of PNJ and even the growth
potential of Viet Nam jewelry market. Using the stats of Value
Partner and their overall restructuring strategies, PNJ have
expected that the CAGR of their core business in jewelry segment
(excluding gold trading, oil and gas trading) will be at 20% per year
in the period of 2012 – 2022.
We believe that the expectation above of growing 20% per year
in core business is quite feasible by comparing with the growth rate
of some similar jewelry corporations in other similar markets as
China, India, and Indonesia (See more details about these
companies).
www.fpts.com.vn
HSX: PNJ
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD OF 2014 – 2022
Revenue and gross profit
Before 2007, net revenue and profit of PNJ increased at an average
rate of 21% and 27% per year since their establishment in 1988,
respectively. After 2007, when the global gold price begin its
uptrend, PNJ’s revenue increased impressively at an average rate
of 67% each year in the period of 2007 – 2011 thanks to their gold
trading business. However, given that the profit of PNJ has mainly
come from the jewelry segment, the growth rate of their net profit
has increased at a stable average rate of 21% each year. For the
period of 2014 – 2022, we expect that net revenue of PNJ will
increase 11,6% each year, net profit after tax of parent company
will increase 18,2% each year. Excluding the fiscal year 2014 with
the abnormal profit from transferring SFC (a subsidiary company),
the net profit of PNJ is expected to increase 17,8% each year in the
period of 2015 – 2018. Besides, excluding the business result in
2014 and 2015 due to the removal of SFC’s result out of the
consolidated result, the CAGR of PNJ’s revenue is expected at
14,3%.
Chart 2: Net revenue and Net profit after tax forecasted for the period of 2007 – 2022
VND Thousand billion
23
200%
20
18
15
14
13
150%
18
18
100%
13
10
9
9
7
8
8
12
10
50%
8
0%
4
3
2
0,1
0,1
0,2
0,2
0,3
0,3
0,2
0,3
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1,0 -50%
(2)
-100%
Net revenue
Net profit
Revenue growth rate
Net profit growth rate
Source: FPTS, PNJ
Gold and silver products group: This major group is contained in
3 subgroups as: Gold trading bar, gold jewelry and silver jewelry.
This group has mainly contributed in net revenue and gross profit
of PNJ during years, at 91% of total revenue and 87% of gross profit
in the period of 2007 – 2013. Details about each group are as
bellow:
 Gold bar trading group: This is one of the basic
businesses of PNJ since their establishment. Before the
www.fpts.com.vn
HSX: PNJ
validation of the Decision No 24/ND-CP, PNJ purchased
their own gold bar brand as “Phoenix gold bar PNJ – DongA
Bank”. Gross profit margin of this product segment was
around 1%. However, after the validation of the Decision No
24/ND-CP since 2012, PNJ had to stop purchasing their
own gold bar and to switch to the national gold bar named
“SJC gold bar” which was monopoly controlled by the State
Bank of Viet Nam. Consequently, gross profit margin of this
group decreased to 0,2%. The proportion of this group in
total revenue of PNJ, that reached the peak of 48% in 2011
when global gold price scored the highest result in history
at $1.700 per ounce, was about 36% in the period of 2008
– 2013. However, for the period of 2014 – 2022, we expect
that PNJ will decrease the proportion of this group in their
total annual revenue due to its low gross profit margin
(0,17%) and its tiny contribution in PNJ’ gross profit (0,2%).
The proportion of this group is expected at 10% of total
revenue in 2022 (see chart 3).
PNJ gold bar with their own brand
“Phoenix PNJ DongA Bank”
Forecasting for the proportion of each
subgroup in gold jewelry group in the period
of 2013 – 2022
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1%
2%
1%
29%
44%
58%
69%
55%
42%
Wholesale
Retail
Export

Gold jewelry group: This is the main contributing group in
both revenue and profit of PNJ during years. The proportion
of this group in net revenue in the period of 2008 – 2022 is
expected at 61%. Excluding the period of 2009 – 2011
when its proportion was down to 21% due to the uptrend of
the gold bar trading group, the average proportion of this
group is expected at 71% total revenue (that will increase
slightly from 2013 and will reach 87% in 2022). Considering
the contribution in profit, the gold jewelry group is expected
to contribute about 82% in total gross profit with the average
gross profit margin at 14,3% in the period of 2011 – 2022.
There are 3 main subgroups in jewelry group with each
growth rate and gross profit margin as bellow:
 Wholesale group: Increase 10% per year with the
average gross profit margin at 3%.
 Retail group: Increase at an average rate of 25,6%
each year in the period of 2013 – 2022) and will
decrease slightly to 20% in 2022 with the average
gross profit margin at 26%. This expected growth
rate is come from the expansion of retail store in all
region of Viet Nam to increase the coverage rate
and to acquire market share of other competitors.
The number of PNJ Gold retail store is expected to
be at 176 stores in 2017 and bypass the milestone
of 400 stores in 2022.
A wedding collection named “Huong Sac Tinh Hong” of PNJ
using 24k gold (99,99%) with attached ruby gemstone that
cost VND152 million (~USD7.240)
www.fpts.com.vn
 Export group: We expect conservatively that this
group will not grow in the period of 2013 – 2022
based on the opinion that PNJ will use all their
internal forces to increase domestic market share
thanks to the converging of all positive factors as
“favorable policy – high growth potential – strong
human resource – judicious orientation of leaders”.
HSX: PNJ

A silver ring with an attached violet stone that cost
VND542.000 (~USD26)
Silver jewelry group: Although this group has contributed
a small proportion in total revenue of PNJ (2%), its
contribution in gross profit of PNJ is remarkable (11%). This
groups is contained in several subgroups as fine silver
jewelry, silver jewelry with attached gemstone, gemstone
and precious stone, jewelry accessories, fashion
accessories, exported silver jewelry… The average growth
rate of this group is expected at 13,7% in the period of 2013
– 2022. Besides, the number PNJ Silver store is planned to
be at 124 stores in 2017 and more than 170 stores in 2022.
Chart 3: Stats and forecast for proportion of main product
segment of PNJ in the period of 2008 – 2022
100%
87%
90%
72%
80%
70%
60%
48%
50%
40%
25%
30%
20%
10%
20%
10%
2,1%
0%
Gold bar trading
Gold jewelry
Silver jewelry
Source: FPTS

Luxury group (CAO Fine Jewelry): This group has taken
a tiny proportion in total revenue of PNJ (nearly 1%). Based
on the conservative opinion, we have not reflected the
contribution of this group in our valuation model yet,
however, we believe that this group is a “strategic weapon”
of PNJ that aims to the luxury segment that have not
developed yet in Viet Nam. Therefore, the growth potential
for this segment in the future is optimistic.

Accessories and inspection services group: This group
has also taken a small proportion in PNJ’s net revenue (1%)
but has the fastest growth rate, at 22% per years and has
the highest gross profit margin among all PNJ’s groups, at
79%. The proportion of this group, that are mainly
contributed by the inspection services and branded watch
distribution, is about 6% of total gross profit.

Oil and gas purchasing group: After disinvesting from
SFC in Sep 29th 2014, revenue and profit of this exsubsidiary company has no longer been consolidated in
PNJ’s business result since 4Q2014. Although the removal
of SFC is the main reason that makes the 2014 expected
revenue of PNJ decreasing 4,6%, common gross profit
margin of PNJ has been improved remarkably due to the
high revenue but low gross profit margin of oil & gas
purchasing business. Excluding this group, the common
revenue of PNJ is expected to increase 12,8% in 2014.
Some platinum and white gold jewelries in luxury
segment named CAO Fine Jewelry of PNJ
www.fpts.com.vn
HSX: PNJ
Expense structure and forecast for the period of 2014 – 2022
We predict that the COGS will take the major proportion in PNJ’s
cost structure in the period of 2014 – 2022, at 87% of net revenue.
Due to the high frequency of gold price volatility, the days of
account receivable and days of account payable of PNJ are quite
low, at 2,7 days and 3,6 days, respectively.
Average cost structure
in the period of 2014 – 2022
COGS; 87%
Financial
expenses;
1,0%
G&A expenses;
1,3%
The proportion of selling and G&A expenses of PNJ were at 2,9%
and 1,3% of net revenue in 2013. Total operating expense of PNJ
was only 4,2%, lower than the average rate of other major jewelry
manufacturers in the world (See more details at Appendix 4).
Therefore, for the period of 2014 – 2022, we estimate that the
operating expense rate of PNJ will increase slightly each year and
will reach 10,4% of net revenue in 2022, especially for the selling
expense that is concordant with the expansion of retail activities of
PNJ in the next years.
Sales expenses;
2,9%
Total assets and total equity structure for the period of 2014 –
2022
Total assets and total equity structure for the
period of 2014 – 2022
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
48%
56%
52%
44%
35%
33%
65%
67%
Short-term assets
Long-term assets
Total liabilities
Owner's equity
26%
28% 28%
27% 28%
25%
3,5
3,0
23%
25%
20%
2,5
20%
12%
1,5
10%
1,0
5%
0,5
0%
0,0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Net profit margin
ROE Dupont
Assets turnover
Financial leverage
www.fpts.com.vn
Our DuPont indicators prove that the ROE ratio of PNJ is beginning
to increase slightly from 2014 to the peak of 28,1% in 2021 thanks
to the improvement of net profit margin that is expected at an
average rate of 4,3% in this period.
2,0
18%
15%
The total equity structure of PNJ will be changing by decreasing
slightly the proportion of total liabilities and increasing the
proportion of owner equity given that PNJ will have no any longterm loan in the period of 2014 – 2022 and their short-term loan will
be only used for their working capital. The balance between total
liabilities and total owner equity is expected at 44% - 56%.
ROE DuPont analysis
ROE DuPont analysis
30%
Commonly, the PNJ’s total asset will change noticeably by
increasing the proportion of current assets (at an average rate of
65% of total assets) and decreasing the proportion of non-current
assets to the average rate of 35% of total assets). In this period,
PNJ will have no major capital expenditure amount and will have
only the annual investment in upgrading current production line and
some new equipment, given the fact that current used capacity of
PNJ’s factory is only 50%.
The asset turnover is also expected to be improved in the next
years thanks to the higher annual growth rate of net revenue (12%)
than the annual growth rate of total assets (10%).
The financial leverage of PNJ is expected to be decreased in the
next years although their cost of debt is quite low (at 6% per year),
given that the accumulated retained earnings of PNJ will increase
at an average rate of 15% each year.
HSX: PNJ
Appendix 1: Viet Nam imported jewelry market overview
According to Italian Trade Agency (ITA), in the period of 2009 – 2011, total value of jewelry imported in Viet Nam was
USD71 mn, USD83 mn, and USD214mn, respectively. Remarkably, total value of jewelry imported in Viet Nam tripled in
2011 given that local jewelry companies boosted their imported raw gold material inventories before the validation of the
Decision No 24/ND-CP issued by the State Bank of Viet Nam (SBV) on June 25th 2012. Then, the value of raw gold
imported was back to the normal amount at USD69 mn while the SBV took the monopoly control on gold bar market.
Commonly, Viet Nam is belong to the “medium income per capita” group and the income per capita of Vietnamese people
has been increased impressively, especially in some center of economic as HCMC, Hanoi, Da Nang, Binh Duong… The
demand of young generation and high-income consumers in luxury and delicate jewelries, that help to show off their
characteristic or to honor themselves, are increased remarkably. Noticeably, the imported jewelry group (excluding
unbranded and cheap imported jewelry from China) has not deep penetrated in Viet Nam market and the brand recognition
of this group is still low. Therefore, Vietnamese people may easily try new jewelry brands that are still novel for local
customers. More precisely, the imported jewelry group took a small proportion at 6% of total domestic jewelry
consumption value compared with the rate of 94% of local produced jewelry group.
Thanks to the absolute advantage in low labor cost and incentive import tax rate (5%), China has been the top jewelry
exporter in Viet Nam and took the major market share at 48% (the total value of imported jewelry from China was more
than USD32 mn in 2012). The market share and import tax rate of the rest countries are as follow: South Korea (12,2%
of market share, import tax rate at 15%), Japan (10,9% of market share, import tax rate at 19%), Hong Kong (9,1% of
market share, import tax rate at 5%). Excluding ASEAN members and China, the rest countries cannot compete by
commercial price with jewelry of China and Hong Kong due to the high import tax rate (15% - 21%), therefore, these
countries have compete by focusing on the quality and the sophistication and the diversity of jewelries that mainly aim to
the mid-income segment in Viet Nam.
Besides, the luxury jewelries imported from European countries have its own position although its market share is small
(8%). This group are imported mainly from French, Italia, Switzerland and is classified at luxury segment with some
famous brand name as Cartier and Korloff (French), Bvlgari and Celine (Italia), Chopard (Switzerland). The import tax
rate for this group has been quite high, from 25% to 30%, that also known as the main barrier of penetration in Viet Nam
market.
Chart 4: Proportion of imported jewelry in Viet Nam in 2012 by country
China
48%
South Korea
12%
US
1%
Switzerland
1%
Germany
1%
Italia
2% Thailand
3%
Japan
11%
Singapore
4%
French
4%
Malaysia
4%
Hong Kong
9%
Source: ICE, FPTS
www.fpts.com.vn
HSX: PNJ
Appendix 2: Historical gold price by currency (adjusted by inflation)
After being adjusted follow Viet Nam’s inflation, gold price in VND has changed closely with global price. Before 2011,
domestic gold price was always lower than then global price; however, after being monopoly controlled by the State Bank
of Viet Nam due to various domestic volatilities in 2009 – 2011, the domestic gold price has been stable and still higher
than the global price.
40
2.000
35
Quarterly gold price by VND ( inflation and exchange rate adjusted)
30
Quarterly gold price by USD ( inflation and exchange rate adjusted)
1.800
USD
Million VND
Chart 5: Historical correlation between gold price by USD and by VND (unit: troy ounce)
1.600
1.400
25
1.200
20
1.000
15
800
600
10
400
5
Source; FPTS, WGC
200
Q3 2014
Q4 2013
Q1 2013
Q2 2012
Q3 2011
Q4 2010
Q1 2010
Q2 2009
Q3 2008
Q4 2007
Q1 2007
Q2 2006
Q3 2005
Q4 2004
Q1 2004
Q2 2003
Q3 2002
Q4 2001
Q1 2001
Q2 2000
Q3 1999
Q4 1998
Q1 1998
Q2 1997
Q3 1996
Q4 1995
Q1 1995
Q2 1994
Q3 1993
Q4 1992
Q1 1992
Q2 1991
Q3 1990
0
Q4 1989
0
Comparing the historical volatility of domestic gold price in VND with the one in CNY, we can recognize that
the gold price in China was always higher than the one in Viet Nam after China devaluated their currency in
the end of 1993. However, after the intervention of SBV in gold market in 2011, the gold price in Viet Nam has
been the highest one in the world.
40
12.000
Quarterly gold price by VND ( inflation and exchange rate adjusted)
35
Quarterly gold price by CNY ( inflation and exchange rate adjusted)
30
10.000
China devaluated their
currency in 1993
(devaluated rate at 70%
compared with 1985)
25
20
CNY
Million VND
Chart 5: Historical correlation between gold price by CNY and by VND (unit: troy ounce)
8.000
6.000
15
4.000
10
Source: FPTS, WGC
2.000
5
www.fpts.com.vn
Q3 2014
Q4 2013
Q1 2013
Q2 2012
Q3 2011
Q4 2010
Q1 2010
Q2 2009
Q3 2008
Q4 2007
Q1 2007
Q2 2006
Q3 2005
Q4 2004
Q1 2004
Q2 2003
Q3 2002
Q4 2001
Q1 2001
Q2 2000
Q3 1999
Q4 1998
Q1 1998
Q2 1997
Q3 1996
Q4 1995
Q1 1995
Q2 1994
Q3 1993
Q4 1992
Q1 1992
Q2 1991
Q3 1990
0
Q4 1989
0
HSX: PNJ
Appendix 3: Gold jewelry and gold bar demand of Viet Nam for years
According to stats of World Gold Council (WGC) and FPTS research, Viet Nam is the 7th biggest gold importer in the
world. Among these major importers, Viet Nam has been the countries that have the lowest correlation rate between gold
jewelry imported and total gold imported (13%), lower than the rate of China and India (63%) and the global rate at 56%.
This comparison is excluded Thailand, Germany and Switzerland given that these three countries have only used imported
gold for their production industries (jewelry production for export in Thailand; mechanical and precision engineering in
Germany; watch production in Switzerland).
Tonnes of gold
Chart 7: Gold jewelry, gold bar and coin consumption in the world in 2013 (by tonnes)
4.500
4.000
3.500
3.000
2.500
2.000
1.500
In 2013, Viet Nam imported 12 tonnes of
gold jewelry (+4% yoy) and 80 tonnes of
gold bar and coin (+23% yoy) that take
2,4% of total world demand.
Gold jewelry imported
Gold bar and coin imported
1.000
500
0
Source: FPTS, WGC
According to FPTS research, in the period of 1997 – 2013, Viet Nam has annually imported an average amount of 19,2
tonnes of gold jewelry that cost USD563 mn and the total accumulative imported amount in 16 years was about 326
tonnes. Noticeably, in this period, Viet Nam has annually imported an average amount of 52 tonnes of gold bar
and raw gold material that cost around USD1,5 bn, the total accumulative amount in 16 years was 890 tonnes
that cost more than USD25,8 bn. Therefore, considering the imported side, Viet Nam has totally imported more than
1.216 tonnes of gold that cost more than USD48,1 bn in the recent 16 years.
Billion USD
Chart 8: Gold jewelry, gold bar and coin consumption in the world in 2013 (by USD)
55
45
35
25
15
Gold jewelry imported
In 2013, Viet Nam imported USD554 mn
gold jewelry (-1% yoy) and USD3,6 bn
gold bar and coin (+2,7% yoy) that make
Viet Nam becoming the 7th biggest gold
importer in the world.
Gold bar and coin imported
5
-5
Source: FPTS, WGC
www.fpts.com.vn
HSX: PNJ
Appendix 4: Stats about financial indicators of major jewelry manufacturers in the world
We compare PNJ with some other similar jewelry manufacturers in the world as Chow Tai Fook (Hong Kong), Lao Feng
Xiang (Shanghai), Tiffany (US), Signet (UK), Pandora (India), Moët Hennesy Louis Vuitton (LVMH – French)… do identify
the level of development and the growth prospect of PNJ in the near future.
Billuon Hong Kong Dollar (HKD)
90
100%
77
79,2%
80
Chow Tai Fook
(1929 HK Equity)
80%
70
61%
57
57
Net revenue
60
60%
NPAT
50
40
40%
35
23
Revenue growth rate
27,3%
30
20
NPAT growth rate
20%
% of operating expenses on
sales
15,2%
18
0%
10
2
2
6
4
Gross profit margin
7
6
0
-20%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: FPTS, Bloomberg
2014
Chow Tai Fook is the biggest jewelry manufacturer and retailer headquartered in Hong Kong, established in 1966 and
listed in 2011. This company is holding the biggest market share in Greater China, including: China (12,6%), Hong Kong
and Macau (20,1%).
Market capitalization (in VND): VND278.000 bn. CAGR of revenue from 2009 to 2013: 33,3%.
Average operating expenses on sales (sales + G&A): 14,8%. Average gross profit margin: 28,4%.
Billion CNY
35
32,8
30
450%
350%
25,4
25
250%
21,0
Net revenue
20
150%
15
NPAT
Revenue growth rate
18,3%
50%
NPAT growth rate
10
-50%
5
% operating expenses on sales
Gross profit margin
0,6
0
Lao Feng Xiang
(600612 CH Equity)
0,9
-150%
-5
-250%
-10
-350%
Lao Feng Xiang has headquartered in Shanghai, established in 1848. After 150 years of development, Lao Feng Xiang
is now the 2nd jewelry manufacturer and retailer in China (after Chow Tai Fook) with the market share in China (excluding
Hong Kong and Macau) at 9%.
Market capitalization (in VND): VND45.347 bn. CAGR of revenue from 1992 to 2013: 33%.
www.fpts.com.vn
HSX: PNJ
Billion USD
5
200%
4,0
4
59,3%
39%
3,8
100%
4
Tiffany
TIF US Equity
0%
3
3
Net revenue
-100%
NPAT
2
Revenue growth rate
-200%
2
NPAT growth rate
1
-300%
sales
Gross profit margin
0,4
1
0,2
-400%
0
-1
-500%
Tiffany is an US jewelry manufacturer headquartered in New York, established in 1837, listed in 1987. Their main
products are jewelry, silver 925, delft, perfume, watch, accessories, leather products and especially diamonds.
Market capitalization (in VND): VND254.023 bn. CAGR of revenue from 1987 to 2013: 12,1%.
Billion Euro
Average operating expenses on sales (sales + G&A): 40%. Average gross profit margin: 54%.
65%
35
30
70%
60%
49%
25
50%
20
40%
Moët Hennesy Louis Vuitton
LVMH (MC FP Equity)
Net revenue
15
30%
10
20%
5
10%
0
0%
-5
-10%
NPAT
Revenue growth rate
sales
Moët Hennesy Louis Vuitton (LVMH) is the biggest corporation in the world in luxury jewelry and luxury fashion with the
total market cap more than USD65 bn. This corporate has headquartered in Paris and has more than 60 subsidiary
companies, established in 1987 after the acquisition between Louis Vuitton and Moët Hennesy.
Market capitalization (in VND): VND1.738.044 bn. CAGR of revenue from 1987 to 201: 10,3%.
www.fpts.com.vn
HSX: PNJ
Appendix 5: Some information about several kinds of gold and the distinction method
1. Karat is the unit used to measure the purity of gold in jewelry divided in 24 levels. The 18k gold has the purity of gold
at 18/24 = 75%, the 24k gold (a.k.a fine gold) has the purity of gold at 24/24 ≈ 99,99%. Excluding fine gold, all the rest
kinds of gold are the combination of gold and other metals (a.k.a alloys) that may be silver, zinc, palladium, copper,
platinum…) to create more chemical and useful physical characteristic for production and preservation as:
 Increase the stiffness, decrease the abrasion of jewelries.
 Given that fine gold is flexible and is easily thinned, the combination with alloys, that makes the final gold
more stiff, will help the jewelers to easily craft complex jewelries.
 Decreasing the melting temperature of gold to simplify the complexity of other processes as soldering of
rejoining damaged or dented jewelries (that require to use gold with similar purity with the products).
 Create more colors, the porosity, the fineness, the polish of jewelries… that increase its aesthetics
Each major jewelry manufacturer (including PNJ) has deep invested in researching and developing their own alloys.
The formula of these alloys is the top secret of each manufacturer that may affect to their reputation and position in
market. Some popular metals used to create alloys are: Silver (mostly known as 925 silver which have the purity of
silver at 92,5% and used to increase the stiffness and decrease the abrasion); Copper (used to increase the stiffness
and add the red/pink color in gold jewelry); Zinc (used to anti oxidize and decrease the melting temperature); Nickel
(used to discolor and increase the stiffness); Palladium (used to discolor); Cobalt, Mangan, Iridium (used to smooth
the metal seed in demetalization process); Silicon, phosphorus (used to anti oxidize)
Some popular combination of gold and alloys:
Purity of gold
Gold
Silver
Copper
Normal gold
9k
37,5%
42,5%
20,0%
Normal gold
10k
41,7%
52,0%
6,3%
Normal gold
14k
58,3%
30,0%
11,7%
Normal gold
18k
75,0%
15,0%
10,0%
Normal gold
22k
91,7%
5,0%
2,0%
Normal gold
24k
99,99%
White gold
9k
37,5%
62,5%
White gold
10k
41,7%
47,4%
White gold
14k
58,3%
32,2%
White gold
18k
75,0%
White gold
22k
n/a
n/a
n/a
Pink gold
9k
37,5%
20,0%
42,5%
Pink gold
10k
41,7%
20,0%
38,3%
Pink gold
14k
58,3%
9,2%
32,5%
Pink gold
18k
75,0%
9,2%
22,2%
Pink gold
22k
91,7%
Zinc
Palladium
1,3%
0,9%
10%
9.50%
25% (*)
8,4%
n/a
n/a
Source: WGC, FPTS
(*) The palladium may be also replaced by platinum in some luxury jewelries
2. The exchange method between measuring units
Exchange
method
1 Ounce (*)
1 Gram
1 V.O
=
=
=
Vietnamese
Ounce (V.O0
0,8293
0,0266
Gram
Troy
Ounce (*)
31,103
37,50
0,0325
1,2057
(*): This unit, which is also known as troy ounce, is belong
to SI measurement system (International System) applied
widely for global gold sector. Besides, the U.K has their
own measurement system in which 1 UK ounce is equal
to 28,3495 gram.
Source: PNJ, FPTS
www.fpts.com.vn
HSX: PNJ
Appendix 6: Stats and financial forecast for the period of 2013 – 2022
unit: VND bn
Incom e statem ent
2013
2014
2015
2016
Net incom e
8.914
- COGS
-8.244 -7.555 -7.024 -7.867
Gross profit
8.328
7.941
9.006
2018
11.715
1.717
773
917
- Sales & Marketing
-262
-295
-329
-427
-696
- General & Adm in
-113
-106
-109
-133
-196
Operating profit
294
372
479
580
825
+ Financial profit
(61)
(21)
(54)
(62)
(80)
+ Other profit
EBIT
- Interest expense
EBT
1
639
531
293
-
-
-
-
-
-1096
-1672
+ Accounts receivable
-287
1.119
(105)
-
-
-
-
-
-
234
351
424
518
745
-104
-149
-203
-415
1.440
(137)
85
112
146
1.087
1.297
1.321
1.600
1.926
2.305
3.244
4.458
46
43
41
47
53
61
80
104
Total current assets
1.718
2.189
2.252
2.453
2.693
2.982
3.728
4.380
1.097
+ Inventories
+ Other current assets
498
518
543
573
605
639
705
- Accum. depreciation
-118
-139
-163
-191
-223
-258
-344
-454
2,00
4,00
+ Long-term investments
590
590
590
590
590
590
590
590
1.015
1.306
+ Other long-term assets
14
142
135
153
174
199
261
341
Total long-term assets
1.239
1.334
1.353
1.401
1.454
1.513
1.640
2.112
Total Assets
2.957
3.523
3.605
3.854
4.148
4.496
5.368
6.492
-260
414
596
813
1.046
319
400
575
782
1.005
2.153
3.496
4.225
5.288
7.605
10.351
13.300
EPS grow th rate
75
+ Gross fixed assets
331
EBIT grow th rate
66
-
264
Operating profit grow th rate
58
1.302
274
Net incom e grow th rate
61
-
163
Depreciation
76
1.013
169
780
1059
1360
Liabilities & Equity
1.133
1.104
1.071
1.033
989
883
744
252
789
764
876
1.003
1.150
1.510
1.966
2.710
28
35
46
58
14%
14%
14%
-36%
62%
21%
25%
19%
16%
13%
Current liabilities
1.551
2.057
2.003
2.082
2.171
2.275
2.528
2.845
27%
29%
21%
19%
16%
13%
+ Long-term debt
135,20
135,20
135,20
135,20
135,20
135,20
135,20
135,20
62%
21%
25%
19%
16%
13%
4,00
-39%
Gross m argin
8%
9%
12%
13%
15%
16%
18%
PAT m argin
2%
3%
4%
4%
5%
5%
5%
ROE DuPont
12%
19%
21%
24%
27%
29%
ROA DuPont
6%
8%
9%
11%
13%
EBIT Margin
3%
4%
5%
6%
70%
75%
75%
77%
+ Other ST liabilities
+ Other LT liabilities
Total Liabilities
-
-
-
-
-
-
2,00
135
135
135
135
135
135
137
139
1.551
2.057
2.003
2.082
2.171
2.275
2.528
2.845
+ Total preferred equity
-
-
-
-
-
-
2,00
4,00
+ Additional paid in capital
105
105
105
105
105
105
105
105
29%
+ Share capital
756
756
756
756
756
756
756
756
15%
16%
+ Retained earnings
274
307
348
399
460
534
719
961
6%
7%
6%
88
88
88
88
88
88
88
88
77%
77%
77%
Total equity
1.318
1.431
1.566
1.736
1.941
2.185
2.805
3.611
Liabilities & equity
2.957
3.575
3.657
3.906
4.200
4.548
5.421
6.544
80%
94%
89%
89%
90%
91%
90%
Asset turnover
3,01x
2,36x
2,20x
2,34x
2,61x
2,86x
3,09x
Leverage ratio
2,24x
2,46x
2,30x
2,22x
2,06x
1,91x
1,80x
6%
11%
12%
15%
19%
22%
24%
2013
2014
2015
2016
2018
2020
2022
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
42
63
69
74
84
92
99
Cash conversion cycle
2022
1.164
2.393
13%
2022
Days AP outstanding
2020
+ Short-term borrow ings
2.139
24
2020
Days AR outstanding
2018
2.036
-5%
2018
Days inventory on hand
2017
1.947
21
2016
Efficiency ratios
2016
1.868
-7%
2015
ROIC
2015
1.922
24
2014
PBT/EBIT
2014
1.415
33%
2013
PAT/PBT
2013
+ Accounts payable
Total LT liabilities
Profitability ratios
(328)
740
-
745
545
2022
832
-
448
2020
-
518
372
2018
788
-
257
2017
-
PAT (less m inority interests)
EBITDA
2016
508
EAT
EPS (VND per share)
2015
+ Short-term investments
424
-93
2014
+ Cash & equivalent
-
-77
2013
Assets
3.526
351
-64
Balance sheet
2.501
234
- Incom e tax expense
2022
20.035
-9.998 -12.835 -16.508
670
1.139
2020
15.337
+ Minority interest
Cash flow
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2020
2022
Beginning cash
469
508
999
1.139
1.189
1.258
1.474
1.805
Profit after tax
233
351
424
518
625
745
1.013
1.302
+ Depreciation
24
21
24
28
32
35
46
58
+ Other non-cash adjust.
70
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
+ Changes in non-cash
-353
343
-46
-174
-209
-243
-324
-422
938
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
Cash from Operations
-25
715
403
371
448
537
735
41
56
67
67
76
84
90
+ Disposal fixed assets
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
+ Capex
-57
-41
-49
-58
-64
-69
-78
-422
+ Change in investments
0
Inventory turnover
7,58
5,82
5,32
4,92
4,34
3,96
3,70
154
0
0
0
0
0
0
Liquidity/Solvency
2013
2014
2015
2016
2018
2020
2022
+ Other investments
14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Current ratio
1,2
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,6
1,6
Cash from Investing
119
-41
-49
-58
-64
-69
-78
-422
Quick ratio
0,4
0,5
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
(0,0)
+ Dividends paid
-94
-152
-184
-230
-278
-331
-450
-578
Cash ratio
0,4
0,4
0,4
0,4
0,2
0,1
(0,1)
+ Change in capital
36
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Debt-to-assets
0,4
0,3
0,3
0,3
0,2
0,2
0,1
+ Change in ST debt
3
-31
-29
-33
-38
-43
-57
-74
Debt-to-capital
0,5
0,4
0,4
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,2
+ Change in LT debt
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Debt-to-equity
1,0
0,8
0,7
0,6
0,5
0,3
0,2
+ Other financing act.
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Short-term debt to equity
0,4
0,3
0,3
0,3
0,2
0,2
0,1
Cash from Financing
-55
-183
-213
-263
-315
-374
-507
-652
Long-term debt to equity
0,0
-
-
-
-
-
-
39
491
140
50
69
94
151
-136
469
508
999
1.139
1.189
1.258
1.474
1.805
Net changes in cash
Ending cash
www.fpts.com.vn
HSX: PNJ
RECOMMEND EXPLANATION
This recommendation based on the difference between targeted value and market value of each stocks in order to provide
appropriate information for investors in 12-month investment period from recommend day.
The expected at 18% is estimated based on 12-month government bond rate in addition to market risk premium in Vietnam.
Recommendation
Explanation
12 months period
Buy
Increase
Monitor
Decrease
Sell
If targeted price is higher than market price 18%
If targeted price is higher than market price about 7%-18%
If targeted price compared to market price within -7%-7%
If targeted price is lower than market price from -7% to -18%
If targeted price is lower than market price -18%
Disclaimer of Liability
All of information and analysis on this repost made by FPTS based on information sources that the company provides to us reliable
resources, available and legal. Except for information about FPTS, we are not guarantee about the correctness or completeness of this
information.
Investors who are using this report need to note that all of comments on this report only the subjective opinions of FPTS. The investors
have to take their own responsibility about their decision when using this report.
FPTS may base on all information in this report or others to make decision for us, but not have any claim on legal of given information.
At making this analysis report time, FPTS and analyst do not hold any PNJ stock.
All related information to others stocks or this stock can be seen on http://fpts.com.vn/EN/ or provide when having
acquirement.
© 2010 FPT Securities
FPT Securities
Headquarter
2nd Floor - 71 Nguyen Chi Thanh,
Dong Da, Hanoi, VN
Tel: (84.4) 37737070 / 2717171
Fax: (84.4) 37739058
www.fpts.com.vn
FPT Securities
HCMC Branch
3nd Floor , Ben Thanh Times Square
Building, 136 – 138 Le Thi Hong Gam
Street, Dist. 1, HCMC, Viet Nam
Tel: (84.8) 6290 8686
Fax: (84.8) 6291 0607
FPT Securities
Da Nang Branch
100 Quang Trung, Thach Thang, Hai
Chau Dist., Da Nang city, Viet Nam
Tel: (84.511) 3553 666
Fax: (84.511) 3553 888

initial valuation report

Transcription

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