China Internet Sector
Transcription
China Internet Sector
China Information Technology 2 August 2016 China Internet Sector ChinaJoy wrap: online games, long may they reign Positive outlook on mobile game revenue growth unchanged; expect recent regulation to accelerate mobile game industry consolidation Tencent and NetEase already dominate respective mobile hard-core genres in China; both have strong mobile game pipelines in 2H16 Top picks in the China Internet sector: Alibaba and Tencent John Choi (852) 2773 8730 john.choi@hk.daiwacm.com Alex Liu (852) 2848 4976 alex.liu@hk.daiwacm.com What's new: We attended ChinaJoy, Asia’s largest digital entertainment fair and World Mobile Game Conference (WMGC), in Shanghai on 29-31 July. We are more optimistic on large online game players including Tencent (700 HK, HKD184.50, Buy [1]) and NetEase (NTES US, USD202.71, Outperform [2]) after the event. We expect both to meet, if not beat, our and the consensus mobile game revenue growth forecasts in their upcoming 2Q16 results. What's the impact: Big players getting bigger. We expect mobile game market consolidation to continue, ultimately benefiting the large players like Tencent and NetEase. Specifically, Tencent plans to launch fewer mobile game titles but with a higher quality to cover the majority of China’s mobile game population. Its leadership in the mobile multiplayer online battle arena (MOBA), casual, and first person shooter (FPS) genres is largely intact, in our view. Separately, we believe NetEase is in a league of its own in terms of the mobile role playing game (RPG) genre in China, and is ready to expand into new genres including Dance and Card & Action. Its PC licence game portfolio, including the recently launched Overwatch and the upcoming WoW 7.0, also look like they would offer good monetisation potential. Tightened regulation favours established players. The State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television’s (国家广电总局) (SARFT) recent requirement for mobile game developers to submit games for review before publishing will greatly increase compliance costs, lengthen the production development cycle and disadvantage small developers. We expect the regulation to lead to an acceleration of mobile game industry consolidation in the next few quarters. Pan-entertainment taking shape. The leading online game companies are all talking about exploiting the value of popular intellectual property (IP) via movies/TV series/literature, etc. In our view, the few players that have control over upstream content production to downstream content distribution will grab the most value from the IP monetisation process. We see Tencent as the best positioned on this front. What we recommend: Within the China online game sector, we believe NetEase and Tencent will continue to harvest the market and gain share at the cost of the smaller players. Our top picks in the China Internet Sector are Tencent and Alibaba (BABA US, USD84.34, Buy [1]). Our long-term positive secular growth thesis on Alibaba still stands. For Baidu, we expect a muted short-term performance given the low visibility on its business recovery and lack of share-price catalysts. How we differ: We are more confident than the street on the secular growth potential for ecommerce and online game players. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 21 China Internet Sector: 2 August 2016 Internet sector valuations (as of 1 August 2016) Ticker Short Name Rating Market price (local curr') Market cap (USDm) FY1E PER (x) FY2E FY3E FY1E P/S (x) FY2E FY3E FY1E 184.50 163.23 202.71 43.09 34.04 54.73 39.13 5.06 22.36 43.09 28.00 51.76 30.00 58.83 37.91 221,109 57,180 26,652 19,508 7,241 3,823 2,150 2,405 2,564 6,762 1,690 7,328 4,343 4,758 1,466 32.2 34.9 15.8 149.7 59.9 66.4 13.6 n.a. 13.9 23.9 22.2 n.a. n.a. 41.6 n.a. 26.3 21.7 13.9 38.8 36.9 37.5 11.3 46.0 11.5 19.2 14.5 34.2 54.6 27.9 n.a. 21.7 15.5 12.3 23.2 23.9 23.8 n.a. 18.2 9.5 15.5 10.5 22.2 23.9 20.5 n.a. 10.2 5.2 4.8 6.6 10.9 3.9 1.9 1.9 2.2 3.9 1.9 5.4 5.4 4.9 0.8 8.3 4.3 4.0 5.3 8.3 3.4 1.3 1.5 1.7 3.4 2.8 4.2 4.0 3.7 0.7 7.0 3.6 3.4 4.3 6.0 2.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 2.9 2.3 3.0 2.9 2.8 0.7 20.1 24.2 10.8 n.a. 52.0 22.7 10.3 n.a. 11.4 17.2 13.2 58.2 n.a. 31.2 6.2 43.1 28.2 18.5 4.7 3.8 3.0 33.6 n.a. 22.1 10.1 26.6 42.4 17.8 6.2 21.0 19.8 13.7 5.5 13.0 0.8 1.0 0.4 9.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 21.9 23.3 15.0 3.8 12.8 22.8 31.7 71.2 20.3 16.6 80.0 33.3 173.2 23.8 41.6 56.0 21.5 25.7 19.0 43.3 11.8 19.3 24.5 47.4 17.3 15.1 70.3 29.5 79.7 17.8 31.6 44.7 21.0 19.9 17.1 31.1 10.7 16.6 19.8 34.7 15.0 13.7 65.7 23.0 45.3 14.7 24.3 35.5 19.1 16.1 14.9 24.6 2.6 6.9 11.3 2.4 6.2 3.9 10.4 4.4 4.1 1.9 6.3 6.7 4.9 2.1 2.9 5.1 EV/EBITDA (x) FY2E FY3E ROE % FY1E 15.9 14.9 8.9 37.1 31.3 14.7 8.6 28.5 8.3 13.8 8.6 21.0 84.9 20.2 2.5 12.7 9.6 7.3 18.0 16.7 9.3 n.a. 15.1 7.3 11.4 6.5 12.5 29.6 13.8 2.1 37.7 12.2 33.5 8.5 7.4 2.2 34.3 (23.9) 23.7 17.1 (7.3) (19.3) n.a. 21.7 (3.2) 23.1 21.3 12.3 10.3 7.2 0.5 0.7 0.2 24.0 n.a. 15.4 2.8 18.7 46.0 10.0 1.6 13.7 15.2 6.9 1.4 24.6 58.8 3.4 2.7 2.2 14.0 19.1 7.8 21.7 2.5 6.5 9.8 2.2 5.5 3.8 10.1 4.1 3.8 1.8 5.6 5.8 3.7 0.0 3.3 4.6 2.4 5.6 7.3 1.8 4.8 3.6 10.0 3.6 3.0 1.5 4.8 4.9 3.3 0.0 3.1 4.0 6.0 12.8 19.8 22.9 16.7 10.4 39.8 14.0 81.3 12.0 23.0 23.8 14.5 2.3 9.3 20.6 5.8 11.0 14.8 17.0 14.3 9.9 35.9 11.9 42.2 9.6 18.1 19.2 11.6 1.9 8.4 15.4 5.5 9.5 11.7 13.4 12.4 9.3 34.4 10.0 25.9 8.1 14.5 15.5 10.2 1.6 7.6 12.6 37.9 15.0 13.4 13.6 29.3 14.7 (15.8) (9.3) 6.3 5.7 12.3 (4.0) 10.2 7.8 22.6 10.6 China Internet 700 HK Equity BIDU US Equity NTES US Equity CTRP US Equity WB US Equity SINA US Equity YY US Equity SFUN US Equity ATHM US Equity EDU US Equity BITA US Equity WUBA US Equity QUNR US Equity XRS US Equity SOHU US Equity TENCENT BAIDU INC-SP ADR NETEASE INC-ADR CTRIP.COM-ADR WEIBO CORP-ADR SINA CORP YY INC-ADR SOUFUN HOLDI-ADR AUTOHOME INC-ADR NEW ORIENTAL-ADR BITAUTO HOLD-ADR 58.COM-ADR QUNAR CAYMAN-ADR TAL EDUCATIO-ADR SOHU.COM INC Average China E-commerce BABA US Equity ALIBABA GRP-ADR* JD US Equity JD.COM INC-ADR* VIPS US Equity VIPSHOP HOLDINGS* JMEI US EQUITY JUMEI INTERNATIO Average Global Internet AAPL US Equity GOOG US Equity FB US Equity AMZN US Equity PCLN US Equity EBAY US Equity YHOO US Equity TWTR US Equity NFLX US Equity EXPE US Equity TRIP US Equity LNKD US Equity 035720 KS Equity 4755 JP Equity 4689 JP Equity Average APPLE INC ALPHABET INC-C FACEBOOK INC-A AMAZON.COM INC PRICELINE GROUP EBAY INC YAHOO! INC TWITTER INC NETFLIX INC EXPEDIA INC TRIPADVISOR INC LINKEDIN CORP-A KAKAO CORP RAKUTEN INC YAHOO JAPAN CORP Buy Hold Outperform Buy Non-rated Non-rated Non-rated Non-rated Non-rated Non-rated Non-rated Non-rated Non-rated Non-rated Non-rated Buy Buy Buy Non-rated Non-rated Non-rated Non-rated Non-rated Non-rated Non-rated Non-rated Non-rated Non-rated Non-rated Non-rated Non-rated Buy Non-rated Non-rated 84.32 21.84 14.33 4.08 106.05 772.88 124.31 767.74 1,356.08 31.25 38.80 16.64 94.37 117.37 70.45 193.09 91,000.00 1,184.00 446.00 206,626 29,948 8,257 598 571,444 539,559 356,935 363,965 67,315 35,282 36,857 11,777 40,459 17,572 10,265 26,014 5,540 16,627 24,975 Source: Bloomberg, *Daiwa forecasts 2 China Internet Sector: 2 August 2016 Table of contents Tencent: highlights from ChinaJoy ........................................................................ 4 Mobile games: focusing on premium titles .........................................................................4 PC games: pipeline less exciting than mobile games .........................................................8 NetEase: highlights from ChinaJoy .......................................................................12 Mobile games: role playing game king .............................................................................12 PC Games: licensed titles are the bright spot ..................................................................14 Industry themes: key highlights from ChinaJoy...................................................16 Recommendation and risks ....................................................................................18 3 China Internet Sector: 2 August 2016 Tencent: highlights from ChinaJoy Long may Tencent reign Tencent’s mobile pipeline in 2H16 looks strong to us Tencent is taking an open stance on sourcing and operating mobile games developed by other smaller content providers (CPs) Tencent’s PC game pipeline looks less exciting than its mobile game pipeline; existing PC titles likely to be main revenue contributors heading into 2H16 Pan-entertainment strategy and eSport initiatives help expand game life-cycle Mobile games: focusing on premium titles Focus on game quality and life cycle Tencent announced its “Premium Game 3.0 (精品游戏 3.0)” strategy in March 2016, which emphasises individual game quality over number of game launches. We saw fewer newly launched mobile games in 1H16 vs 2H15 (1H16:13 games, 2H15:19 games), but a good performance (implying a higher success rate) from these titles. For example, Tencent’s MOBA genre mobile game WeHero (王者荣耀), while being a top-5 game in terms of gross revenue over the past few months, has gradually rolled out an eSports initiative for WeHero that further enhances core gamer engagement. Tencent’s management has said the company plans to launch c.15 new games in 2H16, a similar pace to 1H16. We selected a handful of mobile games in the pipeline that we believe are worth watching: Contra Mobile (魂斗罗) Strong IP; expect good performance; limited contribution in 2H16 Launch date: closed-beta testing to start from August 2016; scheduled to launch in 4Q16 Characteristics: action genre; licensed from KONAMI Our take: Our test play showed good visual quality and speed control for this title. We believe that given the strong popularity of the Contra game among post-80&90 generations in China, the mobile version of Contra should be able to attract a fairly large gamer population after launch. Nevertheless, we expect an immaterial revenue contribution from this game in 2H16. 1 Tencent: screenshot of Contra test run Tencent: screenshot of Contra test run Source: Company, Daiwa compiled Source: Company, Daiwa compiled 1 The authors would like to thank Yishuo Liu for her valuable contribution to this report. 4 China Internet Sector: 2 August 2016 JX3: pocket version (剑网 3 指尖江湖) Good IP; another mobile game adapted from the popular PC version of the JX Series Launch date: closed-beta testing to start from August 2016; expected to launch in 4Q16 Characteristics: ARPG genre; licensed from Kingsoft; the story background of the mobile version is directly based on the JX3 PC version Our take: JX3: the pocket version is Kingsoft’s second mobile game title derived from the JX series PC game. The first case of such adaptation, JXQY (剑侠情缘手游版), which was also developed by Kingsoft and operated by Tencent, has been getting good traction since being launched in 2Q16 and is currently ranked within the top-10 games on China’s iOS grossing chart. We expect a good performance from this title after launch. Tencent: screenshot of JX3: pocket version test run Source: Company, Daiwa compiled The World of Legend (传奇世界手游) Good IP; another mobile title derived from the popular Legend PC version Launch date: closed-beta testing to start from August 2016; estimated to launch in 4Q16 Characteristics: MMORPG genre; licensed from Shanda Game; the story background of the mobile version is directly based on the Legend PC version Our take: similar to the JX series mobile game, The World of Legend is Shanda’s second mobile game title derived from the Legend PC game. The first case of such adaptation, RXCQ (热血传奇手游), which was also developed by Shanda Game and operated by Tencent, has been getting good traction since being launched in 1Q16 and is currently ranked within the top-20 games on China’s iOS grossing chart. We expect a good performance from this title after launch. Tencent: screenshot of World of Legend test run Tencent: screenshot of World of Legend test run Source: Company, Daiwa compiled Source: Company, Daiwa compiled 5 China Internet Sector: 2 August 2016 MHZX (梦幻诛仙) Good IP; mobile title derived from the popular online novel Zhuxian Launch date: scheduled to launch in 4Q16 Characteristics: turn-based RPG genre; licensed from Perfect World; the story background of the mobile version is directly based on the Zhuxian PC version Our take: We note that MHZX is based on the Zhuxian PC game series (developed by Perfect World), which was ultimately derived from the popular online novel Zhuxian. We see a big existing fan base for this game and believe the timing of the launch is good given that the TV drama, Zhuxian (诛仙青云志), is currently on air and can be watched via Tencent Video. On the other hand, competition for this game is likely to be fierce given that Perfect World is also planning to launch a mobile game based on the same IP, called Zhuxian Mobile (诛仙手游), in early August 2016. Other mobile game titles in the pipeline: Xianjian OL Mobile (仙剑 OL 手游 ) MMORPG genre In-house-developed title based on the popular Xianjian PC game series Tencent: screenshot of Xianjian OL Mobile test run Source: Company, Daiwa compiled Crazy Arcade (泡泡堂) Casual game Licensed from Nexon; based on the popular Crazy Arcade PC version (operated by Shanda Game) Unlimited testing expected to start November 2016 Dragon Nest (龙之谷) ARPG genre Licensed title from Shanda Game; based on the Dragon Nest PC version 6 China Internet Sector: 2 August 2016 Tencent: screenshot of Dragon Nest test run Source: Company, Daiwa compiled One of the most anticipated mobile games for 2H16 DNF Mobile (地下城与勇士手游) MMORPG genre Adapted from the popular DNF PC version (one of the key PC game revenue contributors for Tencent right now) Expected to launch in 2H16 TLBB Mobile (天龙八部手游) MMORPG genre Adapted from the popular TLBB PC version (developed and operated by Changyou) Expected to launch in 1Q17 Jueji (爵迹手游) Mobile game derived from the popular novel written by Guo Jingming Expected to launch in 1Q17 YLZT (御龙在天) MMORPG genre In-house developed by Tencent Expected to start unlimited testing in August 2016 Tencent: screenshot of YLZT test run Source: Company, Daiwa compiled 7 China Internet Sector: 2 August 2016 Hello Fishing (捕鱼来了) Casual game Licensed from Guangxi Ligang Efunfun (弹弹堂) Casual game Adapted from the popular web-game; to be published together with The 5th Avenue Tencent: mobile game pipeline (as of August 2016) Game Title Naruto Mobile (火影忍者) Timi Run Everyday 3D (天天酷跑 3D) Tian Tian Qiao Pai (天天桥牌) Tencent Wei Qi (腾讯围棋) Tencent Qiao Pai (腾讯桥牌) Blade & Soul Mobile (剑灵) Tian Mo Huan Xiang (天魔幻想) Dragon Ball Z (龙珠激斗) Zheng Tu (征途) Jian Xia Qing Yuan (剑侠情缘) Carrot Fnatasy 3 (保卫萝卜 3) Asura (全民斗战神) Puzzle and Dragon (智龙迷城) The World of Legend (传奇世界) Yu Long Zai Tian (御龙在天) Hello Fishing (捕鱼来了) Meng Huan Zhu Xian (梦幻诛仙) Contra (魂斗罗) Dragon Nest (龙之谷) Xian Jian online (仙剑 online) JX3 (剑网 3) DDTank (弹弹堂) Crazy Arcade (泡泡堂) DnF Mobile (地下城与勇士) TLBB (天龙八部) Jue Ji (爵迹) Huan Le Pin San Zhang (欢乐拼三张) Ensemble Stars (偶像梦幻祭) Infinity Blade Saga (无尽之剑命运) Tian Tian Huan Ling (天天幻灵) Infinity Blade Saga (无尽之剑 - 命运) 6L 3D (六龙争霸 3D) FIFA Online Mobile (足球在线) Xun Long Zhan Ji (驯龙战机) Zhu Gong Ting Zhu (主公挺住) Stoneage (石器时代) Launch Date 1Q16 1Q16 1Q16 1Q16 1Q16 1Q16 1Q16 2Q16 2Q16 2Q16 2Q16 2Q16 2Q16 2H16E 2H16E 2H16E 2H16E 2H16E 2H16E 2H16E 2H16E 2H16E 2H16E 2H16E 1Q17E 1Q17E 2Q16E 2Q16E 2Q16E 3Q16E TBC TBC TBC TBC TBC TBC Game Genre Action Action Card Board & card Board & card Card RPG RPG RPG MMORPG Tower Defense ARPG RPG MMORPG MMORPG Casual Turn-based RPG Action ARPG MMORPG MMORPG Shooting Casual Action MMORPG MMORPG Board & card EDU RPG Card ARPG Strategy Strategy Shooting RPG RPG Developer Licensed In-house In-house In-house In-house Licensed In-house Licensed Licensed Licensed Licensed In-house Licensed Licensed In-house Licensed Licensed In-house Licensed In-house Licensed Licensed Licensed Licensed Licensed In-house In-house Licensed Licensed In-house In-house Licensed Licensed Licensed Licensed Licensed Source: Company, Daiwa compiled PC games: pipeline less exciting than mobile games We generally feel less excited about Tencent’s PC game pipeline compared to its mobile game pipeline. For now, we expect Tencent’s top-3 games – League of Legends, Cross Fire and DNF – to continue as the main PC revenue pillars heading into 2H16. We are not particularly concerned about the competition from NetEase’s Overwatch as: 1) the gamer profile and game genre are different, and 2) Overwatch’s pay-up-front model reduces adoption among relatively low income players. We do believe Overwatch is likely to grab existing Tencent gamers; however, we would consider this the natural maturing of the game’s life cycle. As the following table shows, in June 2016 (first full month launch of Overwatch), Tencent’s games still occupy the top-3 positions in terms of net cafe game usage. 8 China Internet Sector: 2 August 2016 China: PC game ranking in terms of net cafe usage, June 2016 Tencent’s core PC titles still retain high engagement despite the sharp rise of Overwatch in June 2016 Ranking Game title Genre Company In-house/ Licensed No. of times it is played in Internet cafes (indexed) MOBA FPS Tencent In-house 100.0 Tencent Licensed 20.5 Fighting Tencent Licensed 14.8 1 League of Legends (英雄联盟) 2 Cross Fire (穿越火线) 3 Dungeon and Fighter (地下城与勇士) 4 QQ Speed (QQ 飞车) REC Tencent In-house 3.9 5 Ni Zhan (逆战) FPS Tencent In-house 3.4 6 OverWatch (守望先锋) FPS NetEase Licensed 2.4 7 8 9 10 QQ Dance (QQ 炫舞) MUG SPG MOBA MOBA Tencent Tencent Perfect World Electronic Soul Co-published Co-developed Licensed In-house 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.8 11 World of Warcraft (魔兽世界) MMORPG NetEase Licensed 0.7 12 Call of Duty Online (使命召唤 Online) FPS Tencent Licensed 0.6 13 HearthStone (炉石传说) CARD NetEase Licensed 0.6 14 天涯明月刀 MMORPG Tencent In-house 0.5 15 16 17 Blade & Soul (剑灵) FIFA Online3 World of Tanks (坦克世界) MMORPG SPG TPS Tencent Tencent Kongzhong Licensed Licensed Licensed 0.5 0.5 0.4 18 Fantasy of West Journey (梦幻西游) MMORPG NetEase In-house 0.4 19 FreeStyle (街头篮球) SPG T2 Entertainment Licensed 0.4 20 Counter-Strike Online (反恐精英 Online) FPS Tiancity Licensed 0.3 NBA2KOL Dota2 Dream of Three Ancient Kingdoms2 (梦三国 2) Source: Shunwang We selected a handful of Tencent’s PC games in the pipeline that we believe are worth watching: MapleStory2 (冒险岛 2) Large fan base in China Launch date: closed-beta testing started on 28 July Characteristics: RPG & sandbox genre; licensed from Nexon Our take: MapleStory2 is an upgraded version of the popular MapleStory PC version. The game allows players to explore the virtual world and is less intense compared to some other MMORPG titles. We note that many Mainland players are already playing on the Korean servers, pointing to the quality of the game. We are optimistic about the game’s performance after its official launch in China, expected in 2H16. Need for Speed OL(极品飞车 OL) A proven global title Launch date: closed-beta testing from 17 August Characteristics: car-chase genre; licensed from Electronic Arts (EA) Our take: Need for Speed is a renowned title globally. We believe the game will further enhance Tencent’s advanced casual PC games portfolio, which includes FIFA Online (licensed from EA) and Call of Duty OL (licensed from Blizzard). Transformer OL (变形金刚 OL) Globally recognised IP; executing a panentertainment strategy Launch date: closed-beta testing to start in August 2016 Characteristics: FPS genre; developed in-house by Tencent Our take: We view this game as a part of Tencent’s pan-entertainment strategy, whereby the company, through investing or developing in-house, is looking to further exploit the value of its popular IP via various types of media formats, including movies, games, music, and other derivative products. The game will be released before the premier of Transformer 5 (expected in 2H17). 9 China Internet Sector: 2 August 2016 Tencent: screenshot of a test run for Transformer online Source: Company, Daiwa compiled Other PC game titles in the pipeline: Zero (代号零) Tencent’s latest in-house developed turn-based game Still under technical testing Master*Master (全职大师) Action genre advanced casual game Licensed from NCsoft Currently under closed-beta testing Iron Knight (刀锋铁骑) Real-time RPG genre Developed in-house by Tencent Currently going through second round of closed-beta testing Tencent: screenshot of a test run of Iron Knight Source: Company, Daiwa compiled 10 China Internet Sector: 2 August 2016 Tencent: PC game pipeline (as at 1 August 2016) Game Title Advanced Casual Games (ACG) Call of Duty Online (使命召唤) Orc Must Die (兽人必须死) SMITE (神之浩劫) War Thunder (战争雷霆) Need for Speed (极品飞车) Master x Master (全职大师) Core Fight (炫斗之王) Metro Conflict: Presto (重火力) Three Kingdoms (霸三国 Online) HON (超神英雄) Massively Multiplayer Online Games (MMOG) Moonlight Blade (天涯明月刀) Monster Hunter Online (怪物猎人 OL) AtcheAge (上古世纪) Lost Saga (王牌对决) Maplestory 2 (冒险岛 2) Path of Exile (流放之路) Yu Long Zai Tian (御龙在天) Kritika (疾风之刃) Sura (天刹) MX (勇者大冒险) Iron Knight (刀锋铁骑) Lost Ark (失落的方舟) Rising Fire (火源计划) Transformers (变形金刚) Launch date Genre Developer Testing statues 1Q15 1Q15 2Q16 2Q16 TBC TBC TBC TBC TBC TBC High-end First-Person Shooter (FPS) 3D Multiplayer Online Battle Arena (MOBA) 3D MOBA Third-Person Shooter (TPS) Car chase action game 3D MOBA 2D side-scrolling fighting game Science fiction theme FPS Real Time Strategy 3D MOBA Licensed Licensed Licensed Licensed Licensed Licensed In-house Licensed In-house Licensed Open-beta testing Open-beta testing Open-beta testing Open-beta testing 4Q15 4Q15 2Q16 2Q16 2Q16 2Q16E 2Q16E TBC TBC TBC TBC TBC TBC TBC 3D martial arts style MMORPG 3D fighting Massively Multiplayer Online Action Gams (MMOACT) 3D fighting Massively Multiplayer Online Role Play Game (MMORPG) Arcade game style action MMOG 3D cartoon style MMORPG 3D Real time MMORPG 3D Real time MMORPG 3D cartoon style fighting action 3D next-generation high-end fighting MMOG ATM (Action, TPS, MMORPG) FPS 3D MMORPG Shooting RPG FPS In-house Licensed Licensed Licensed Licensed Licensed Licensed Licensed Licensed Licensed In-house Licensed Licensed In-house Open-beta testing Open-beta testing Open-beta testing Closed-beta testing Closed-beta testing Source: Company, Daiwa 11 China Internet Sector: 2 August 2016 NetEase: highlights from ChinaJoy Focusing on “craftsmanship” NetEase’s mobile pipeline in 2H16 looks robust to us NetEase’s dominant position in the mobile RPG genre market is unlikely to see any material challenges in 2H16 NetEase’s licensed PC game pipeline also looks solid, with a new version of WoW and continuing healthy user momentum for Overwatch Mobile games: role playing game king Following the conference, we are now marginally more confident on the life cycles of FWJ and WWJ, NetEase’s 2 major mobile titles. We are encouraged to see the company’s experience in the RPG genre (including MMO, action, real-time and/or turn-based) pay off amid the mobile age, and believe no other player in the market will be able to match NetEase, in terms of both the quality and quantity of its mobile RPG genre games, in the near term. We have selected a few of NetEase’s mobile games in the pipeline/recently launched that we believe are worth watching: Tianxia (天下手游) Outstanding visual quality thanks to new in-house developed game engine Launch date: iOS version launched on 29 July Characteristics: MMORPG genre; developed in-house by NetEase; derived from the popular Tianxia PC version Our take: Tianxia (iOS platform only) was launched on 29 July. The game ranked No.4 on 17173.com’s most anticipated game list, and now ranks No.3 on the free game chart at the China iOS store. We have seen initial positive gamer feedback on the responsiveness of game action partly due to the adoption of NetEase’s new game engine. We are optimistic on the monetisation potential of this game, and believe the performance of Tianxia could be a near-term share-price catalyst for NetEase. NetEase: screenshot of Tianxia NetEase: screenshot of Tianxia Source: Company, Daiwa compiled Source: Company, Daiwa compiled Audition (劲舞团) Highly anticipated title adapted from popular PC title Launch date: finished multiple testing on Android; currently undergoing iOS closedbeta testing; expected to launch in 3Q16 Characteristics: Dance genre; licensed from T3; derived from the popular Audition PC version (operated by Jiuyou in China) Our take: Audition is one of the most popular dance-genre PC game in China over the past decade. We see great potential for this game as: 1) the dance genre in general has a large user base, as evidenced by the success of the PC version of Audition and Tencent’s casual dance game DA (节奏大师), 2) there is currently no direct competition for the mobile 12 China Internet Sector: 2 August 2016 version of Audition, 3) and Audition has a good track record of monetisation and long-life cycle (over CNY200m in annual revenue despite having been available in China for the past 10 years). NetEase: screenshot of an Audition test run NetEase: screenshot of an Audition test run Source: Company, Daiwa compiled Source: Company, Daiwa compiled Some of the other mobile games titles in the pipeline: Datang (大唐无双手游) MMORPG genre Developed in-house by NetEase; based on NetEase’s popular PC title Datang Expected to be launched in 4Q16 HIT: Heroes of Incredible Tales (我守护的一切) ARPG genre Licensed from Nexon; top mobile game title in Korea Expected to be launched in 4Q16 XLFD (小李飞刀手游) MMORPG genre Developed in-house by NetEase; derived from popular Chinese martial art fiction written by Gu Long; part of NetEase’s 5 Gu Long adaptation programme (NetEase will launch 5 mobile games based on Gu Long’s novels) Expected to commence open testing in August 2016 NetEase: PC game pipeline (as of August 2016) Name Heroses of Tang Dynasty HIT Demon Seals Audition Dance Battle Just Dance Onmyoji Da Tang You Xian Ji Wu Xian Huan Dou San Shao Ye De Jian Xiao Li Fei Dao Jue Dai Shuang Jiao Fu Mo Zhou Zhan Hun Girl Sword Rich Man Mushroom Wars Online Dai Hao Star P1 Rong Yao Dui Jue Wu Xian Zhan Zheng S7 Dai Hao Kuang Ye Chinese Name 大唐无双 我守护的一切 镇魔曲 劲舞团 舞力全开 阴阳师 大唐游仙记 无限幻斗 三少爷的剑 小李飞刀 绝代双骄 伏魔咒 斩魂 妖刀少女异闻录 大富翁 9 蘑菇战争:太空战记 代号 star P1 荣耀对决 无限战争 S7 代号狂野 Genre MMORPG ARPG MMORPG Action Action Card RPG MMORPG ARPG RPG RPG RPG MMORPG 格斗 格斗 棋牌 对战推塔手游 MMORPG ARPG MMORPG RPG FPS - Source: Company, Daiwa 13 Licensed/In-house In-house Licensed In-house Licensed Licensed In-house In-house In-house In-house In-house In-house Licensed In-house Licensed Licensed Licensed In-house In-house - Current testing stage Closed-beta testing First test was on 28 June 2016 Closed-beta testing First test was in late July 2016 China Internet Sector: 2 August 2016 PC Games: licensed titles are the bright spot During our visit to the conference, we could certainly feel how popular Blizzard games are in China, in particular WoW, Hearthestone, and most recently, Overwatch. The 3-hour queues to get into the NetEase/Blizzard exhibition area suggests to us that the success of the Blizzard franchise should continue, as well as the level of mindshare that both companies have acquired among hard-core gamers. We selected a handful of NetEase’s PC games in the pipeline/currently operating that we believe are worth watching: Overwatch (守望先锋) Initial success; in-game item sales, game play innovation and user retention are its next focus areas Launch date: 26 May 2016 Characteristics: FPS shooting genre; licensed from Blizzard Our take: We believe the successful launch of Overwatch (over 1m copies sold in the first 24 hours) will positively impact NetEase’s 2Q-4Q16 PC game revenue. Despite the initial success, we would focus on Overwatch’s subsequent monetisation opportunity from ingame item sales and the enhancement of game play (for example, the recent introduction of a competitive mode), which we believe, if executed well ,will lead to a prolonged game life cycle and further revenue upside for NetEase. NetEase: audience watching screens in front of the NetEase/Blizzard exhibition area Source: Company, Daiwa compiled War of Worldcraft (WoW,魔兽世界) New version should boost revenue in the next few quarters Launch date: Version 7.0 (WoW: Legion) to be launched on 1 September 2016 Characteristics: RPG genre; licensed from Blizzard Our take: During ChinaJoy, Blizzard and NetEast announced the new version of WoW, which is scheduled to be launched on 1 September. We note there has been a recent pickup in users of WoW, given the public release of WoW: the movie in June 2016. We expect the new version of WoW to further boost the revenue outlook of WoW in the coming quarters. Separately, NetEase and WoW announced a change in the payment model for WoW. Starting from 4 August 2016, the pay-per-minute option will be replaced by a monthly/quarterly/annual subscription package. We consider this change in payment model as an ASP increase and expect a minor drop in users as a result. Nevertheless, we believe the new version should boost WoW’s revenue in the next few quarters. 14 China Internet Sector: 2 August 2016 Hearthestone (炉石传说) New expansion package to support monetisation Launch date: 1 September 1 2016 Characteristics: card genre; licensed from Blizzard Our take: During ChinaJoy, Blizzard and NetEast announced their new expansion package called Hearthestone: One night in Karazhan. The expansion will be officially online on 11 August 2016. We noticed that the press conference for the global release of this expansion package was held in China, suggesting Blizzard’s key focus on the China market and a testimony for NetEase’s operation of Blizzard games in China. NetEase: mobile game pipeline (as at 1 August 2016) Name Wang Yi Quan Ming Xing Legend of Rhythms Pirates: Treasure Hunters Wu Jin Zhan Qu Ni Shui Han War Rage Hero Wars War Rage Chinese Name 网易全明星 战音 OL 夺宝联盟 无尽战区 逆水寒 战意 最强军团 战意 Genre 3D MOBA 2.5D RPG 3D MOBA 3D MOBA 3D MMORPG 3D Real-time MMORPG 2.5D Real-time MMORPG 3D Real-time MMORPG Licensed/In-house In-house In-house Licensed In-house In-house In-house Licensed In-house Source: Company, Daiwa 15 Current testing stage First closed -beta test (activation code needed) on 12 Aug. 2016 Closed-beta test (activation code needed) finished on 13 Jan. 2015 First closed-beta test (activation code needed) finished on 12 May 2016 Closed-beta test for Chihun (炽魂) finished on 15 Apr. 2016 China Internet Sector: 2 August 2016 Industry themes: key highlights from ChinaJoy When we talk about intellectual property, what are we talking about? We consider IP a marketing strategy IP is marketing and it saves on user acquisition costs IP has been a buzz word among online game industry participants since 2014. We consider spending on popular IP and adapting games to them as a marketing strategy. If potential players resonate with popular IP, which they tend to do, this reduces their marketing expenses. Online game companies are becoming entertainment companies We have noticed a clear secular trend: the online game companies are investing in or transforming into digital media companies, and digital media companies are investing in online game companies. An example is Tencent, which has invested/participated in the production of film/online games/TV series that have been adapted from existing PC games or popular online literature. Many have tried to replicate Tencent’s integrated approach – full control from idea generation to media distribution, but we doubt that many will succeed. Small developers facing tough times IP price too high for many to bear As we have already mentioned, many game developers, large and small, have rushed to acquire popular IP over the past 2 years. This has driven up the IP price significantly. Based on our discussions with a mid-size game developer, buying 1 popular IP-adapted mobile game requires an upfront payment of around CNY10m20m and subsequent 10% revenue sharing. New regulations negative for the smaller CPs SARFT recently announced tighter regulations on mobile game development. All mobile game developers will be subject to regulatory scrutiny and obtaining a licence number (版号) before their games are published. The Major app stores in China, including the Apple iOS store, have announced that mobile games without a valid licence number will be excluded from distribution, effective 1 October 2016. We talked to some CPs during ChinaJoy, and they expressed concerns about the uncertainty surrounding these regulatory changes, as it is not clear what the criteria for the regulatory review will be. There is also no clear timeline for the review. Some said the reviews could take up to 6 months. The higher compliance cost (both in terms of monetary cost and time cost) will greatly disadvantage small CPs in competing with the large players, including NetEase and Tencent. This could result in a greater number of small developers working with the large operators vs. publishing games themselves, as they did before. Going overseas Many of the smaller CPs said they are turning to the overseas market to avoid domestic regulations. It is also easier for the CPs to publish games overseas given they only have 2 channels for distribution: Google and Apple. On the flip side, their major concerns in going overseas are related to possible IP infringement and having to pay potential penalties as a result. Virtual reality/augmented reality Another buzz word we heard from industry players was “VR” (virtual reality) and “AR” (augmented reality). The hardware players in particular are keen to launch their own branded VR/AR hardware at ChinaJoy this year. For example, Sony launched official PS VR gear, for a price tag of around CNY3,000 per item, much cheaper than many expected. 16 China Internet Sector: 2 August 2016 In our opinion, commodity-like hardware, such as standalone VR gear lacks the necessary differentiating features and therefore do not have much value. Content, on the other hand, is the key arena for VR competition in the next few years, in our view. We believe we are still at the accumulation stage for VR/AR content. We note that Tencent has been relatively quiet on the VR front, although we suspect the company is watching the industry dynamics carefully and waiting for an inflection point to get in. NetEase announced that it has become a preferred partner of Google’s Daydream VR initiatives. We are upbeat on VR becoming the next “running operating platform”, after PCs and smartphones, but believe we are unlikely to see significant VR adoption in the next 1-2 years. 17 China Internet Sector: 2 August 2016 Recommendation and risks Tencent Tencent is our top pick in the China Internet sector We reaffirm our Buy (1) rating on Tencent. The key risk to our call on Tencent would be higher-than-expected marketing and content expenses. NetEase We also reiterate our Outperform (2) on NetEase. The key downside risks on our positive call on the stock would be: 1) slower-than-expected mobile-game roll-outs, 2) faster-thanexpected declines in revenue from its legacy PC-game titles, and 3) regulatory uncertainty over its Kaola platforms. 18 China Internet Sector: 2 August 2016 Daiwa’s Asia Pacific Research Directory HONG KONG SOUTH KOREA Takashi FUJIKURA (852) 2848 4051 Regional Research Head takashi.fujikura@hk.daiwacm.com Sung Yop CHUNG (82) 2 787 9157 sychung@kr.daiwacm.com Pan-Asia Co-head/Regional Head of Automobiles and Components; Automobiles; Shipbuilding; Steel John HETHERINGTON (852) 2773 8787 john.hetherington@hk.daiwacm.com Regional Deputy Head of Asia Pacific Research Mike OH (82) 2 787 9179 mike.oh@kr.daiwacm.com Banking; Capital Goods (Construction and Machinery) Rohan DALZIELL (852) 2848 4938 rohan.dalziell@hk.daiwacm.com Regional Head of Asia Pacific Product Management Iris PARK Consumer/Retail Kevin LAI (852) 2848 4926 kevin.lai@hk.daiwacm.com Chief Economist for Asia ex-Japan; Macro Economics (Regional) (82) 2 787 9165 iris.park@kr.daiwacm.com Jonas KAN (852) 2848 4439 Head of Hong Kong and China Property jonas.kan@hk.daiwacm.com SK KIM (82) 2 787 9173 sk.kim@kr.daiwacm.com IT/Electronics – Semiconductor/Display and Tech Hardware Cynthia CHAN Property (China) cynthia.chan@hk.daiwacm.com Thomas Y KWON (82) 2 787 9181 yskwon@kr.daiwacm.com Pan-Asia Head of Internet & Telecommunications; Software – Internet/On-line Game (852) 2773 8243 Kevin JIN Small/Mid Cap Leon QI (852) 2532 4381 leon.qi@hk.daiwacm.com Banking (Hong Kong/China); Broker (China); Insurance (China) (82) 2 787 9168 kevin.jin@kr.daiwacm.com yan.li@hk.daiwacm.com TAIWAN Anson CHAN (852) 2532 4350 Consumer (Hong Kong/China) anson.chan@hk.daiwacm.com Rick HSU (886) 2 8758 6261 rick.hsu@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw Head of Regional Technology; Head of Taiwan Research; Semiconductor/IC Design (Regional) Adrian CHAN (852) 2848 4427 Consumer (Hong Kong/China) adrian.chan@hk.daiwacm.com Christie CHIEN (886) 2 8758 6257 christie.chien@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw Banking; Insurance (Taiwan); Macro Economics (Regional) Jamie SOO (852) 2773 8529 Gaming and Leisure (Hong Kong/China) jamie.soo@hk.daiwacm.com Steven TSENG (886) 2 8758 6252 IT/Technology Hardware (PC Hardware) Yan LI Banking (China) (852) 2773 8822 steven.tseng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw Dennis IP (852) 2848 4068 dennis.ip@hk.daiwacm.com Power; Utilities; Renewables and Environment (Hong Kong/China) Christine WANG (886) 2 8758 6249 christine.wang@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw IT/Technology Hardware (Automation); Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare; Consumer John CHOI (852) 2773 8730 john.choi@hk.daiwacm.com Head of Hong Kong and China Internet; Regional Head of Small/Mid Cap Kylie HUANG (886) 2 8758 6248 kylie.huang@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw IT/Technology Hardware (Handsets and Components) Kelvin LAU (852) 2848 4467 kelvin.lau@hk.daiwacm.com Head of Automobiles; Transportation and Industrial (Hong Kong/China) Helen CHIEN Small/Mid Cap Brian LAM (852) 2532 4341 brian.lam@hk.daiwacm.com Transportation – Railway; Construction and Engineering (China) Thomas HO Custom Products Group PHILIPPINES Patricia Tamase Banking (852) 2773 8716 helen.chien@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw INDIA Punit SRIVASTAVA (91) 22 6622 1013 punit.srivastava@in.daiwacm.com Head of India Research; Strategy; Banking/Finance thomas.ho@hk.daiwacm.com Saurabh MEHTA Capital Goods; Utilities (63) 2 797 3024 (886) 2 8758 6254 (91) 22 6622 1009 saurabh.mehta@in.daiwacm.com patricia.tamase@dbpdaiwacm.com.ph SINGAPORE Ramakrishna MARUVADA (65) 6499 6543 ramakrishna.maruvada@sg.daiwacm.com Head of Singapore Research; Telecommunications (China/ASEAN/India) Royston TAN (65) 6321 3086 Oil and Gas; Capital Goods royston.tan@sg.daiwacm.com David LUM (65) 6329 2102 Banking; Property and REITs david.lum@sg.daiwacm.com Shane GOH (65) 64996546 shane.goh@sg.daiwacm.com Property and REITs; Small/Mid Cap (Singapore) Jame OSMAN (65) 6321 3092 jame.osman@sg.daiwacm.com Transportation – Road and Rail; Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare; Consumer (Singapore) 19 China Internet Sector: 2 August 2016 Daiwa’s Offices Office / Branch / Affiliate Address Tel Fax DAIWA SECURITIES GROUP INC HEAD OFFICE Gran Tokyo North Tower, 1-9-1, Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 100-6753 (81) 3 5555 3111 (81) 3 5555 0661 Daiwa Securities Trust Company One Evertrust Plaza, Jersey City, NJ 07302, U.S.A. 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Unless this report says otherwise, any recommendation it makes is risky and appropriate only for sophisticated speculative investors able to incur significant losses. Readers should consult their financial advisors to determine whether any such recommendation is consistent with their own investment objectives, financial situation and needs. This report does not recommend to U.S. recipients the use of any of DCMA’s non-U.S. affiliates to effect trades in any security and is not supplied with any understanding that U.S. recipients of this report will direct commission business to such non-U.S. entities. Unless applicable law permits otherwise, non-U.S. customers wishing to effect a transaction in any securities referenced in this material should contact a Daiwa entity in their local jurisdiction. Most countries throughout the world have their own laws regulating the types of securities and other investment products which may be offered to their residents, as well as a process for doing so. As a result, the securities discussed in this report may not be eligible for sales in some jurisdictions. Customers wishing to obtain further information about this report should contact DCMA: Daiwa Capital Markets America Inc., Financial Square, 32 Old Slip, New York, New York 10005 (Tel no. 212-612-7000). Ownership of Securities For “Ownership of Securities” information please visit BlueMatrix disclosure link at https://daiwa3.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action. Investment Banking Relationships For “Investment Banking Relationships” please visit BlueMatrix disclosure link at https://daiwa3.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action. DCMA Market Making For “DCMA Market Making” please visit BlueMatrix disclosure link at https://daiwa3.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action. Research Analyst Conflicts For updates on “Research Analyst Conflicts” please visit BlueMatrix disclosure link at https://daiwa3.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action. The principal research analysts who prepared this report have no financial interest in securities of the issuers covered in the report, are not (nor are any members of their household) an officer, director or advisory board member of the issuer(s) covered in the report, and are not aware of any material relevant conflict of interest involving the analyst or DCMA, and did not receive any compensation from the issuer during the past 12 months except as noted: no exceptions. Research Analyst Certification For updates on “Research Analyst Certification” and “Rating System” please visit BlueMatrix disclosure link at https://daiwa3.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action. The views about any and all of the subject securities and issuers expressed in this Research Report accurately reflect the personal views of the research analyst(s) primarily responsible for this report (or the views of the firm producing the report if no individual analysts[s] is named on the report); and no part of the compensation of such analyst(s) (or no part of the compensation of the firm if no individual analyst[s)] is named on the report) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this Research Report. The following explains the rating system in the report as compared to relevant local indices, unless otherwise stated, based on the beliefs of the author of the report. "1": the security could outperform the local index by more than 15% over the next 12 months. "2": the security is expected to outperform the local index by 5-15% over the next 12 months. "3": the security is expected to perform within 5% of the local index (better or worse) over the next 12 months. "4": the security is expected to underperform the local index by 5-15% over the next 12 months. "5": the security could underperform the local index by more than 15% over the next 12 months. Disclosure of investment ratings Rating Percentage of total Buy* 65.8% Hold** 21.8% Sell*** 12.4% Source: Daiwa Notes: data is for single-branded Daiwa research in Asia (ex Japan) and correct as of 30 June 2016. * comprised of Daiwa’s Buy and Outperform ratings. ** comprised of Daiwa’s Hold ratings. *** comprised of Daiwa’s Underperform and Sell ratings. Additional information may be available upon request. Japan - additional notification items pursuant to Article 37 of the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law (This Notification is only applicable where report is distributed by Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd.) If you decide to enter into a business arrangement with us based on the information described in materials presented along with this document, we ask you to pay close attention to the following items. In addition to the purchase price of a financial instrument, we will collect a trading commission* for each transaction as agreed beforehand with you. Since commissions may be included in the purchase price or may not be charged for certain transactions, we recommend that you confirm the commission for each transaction. In some cases, we may also charge a maximum of ¥ 2 million (including tax) per year as a standing proxy fee for our deposit of your securities, if you are a non-resident of Japan. For derivative and margin transactions etc., we may require collateral or margin requirements in accordance with an agreement made beforehand with you. Ordinarily in such cases, the amount of the transaction will be in excess of the required collateral or margin requirements. There is a risk that you will incur losses on your transactions due to changes in the market price of financial instruments based on fluctuations in interest rates, exchange rates, stock prices, real estate prices, commodity prices, and others. In addition, depending on the content of the transaction, the loss could exceed the amount of the collateral or margin requirements. There may be a difference between bid price etc. and ask price etc. of OTC derivatives handled by us. Before engaging in any trading, please thoroughly confirm accounting and tax treatments regarding your trading in financial instruments with such experts as certified public accountants. *The amount of the trading commission cannot be stated here in advance because it will be determined between our company and you based on current market conditions and the content of each transaction etc. When making an actual transaction, please be sure to carefully read the materials presented to you prior to the execution of agreement, and to take responsibility for your own decisions regarding the signing of the agreement with us. Corporate Name: Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd. Financial instruments firm: chief of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kin-sho) No.108 Memberships: Japan Securities Dealers Association, The Financial Futures Association of Japan Japan Securities Investment Advisers Association Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association 22