Power Market Drivers

Global Power Market Trends
N.C.Mohn
Agenda
Introduction to Alstom
Power Market Drivers
Global Project Logistics
Introduction
Alstom Group: Three sectors
Grid
3.5 €bn
(2009)
19
%
Transport
5.8 €bn
30
%
Power
13.9 €bn
51
%
Sales by Sector (proforma figures)
Source: Alstom 2009/10
Rail transport infrastructure
Power generation infrastructure
Power transmission infrastructure
Agenda
Introduction to Alstom
Power Market Drivers
Global Project Logistics
The Sign Posts to Read to
Understand Electricity Markets
Environment
Economic Growth
Fleet age
93 GW p.a
GDP in Trillion
2000$ PPP*
~3.5%
90 GW p.a
99 GW p.a
62 GW p.a
36 GW p.a
~3.1%
24 GW p.a
Electricity
consumption
14 GW p.a
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Deregulation
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Fuel & electricity prices
Environment becoming driver #1 for new plants and installed base
2025
Environmental Drivers
CO2
Nuclear
&
biomass
Emissions CO2
(Gt/y)
Wind,solar, &
Geothermal
Technology
Mix
Efficiency
CCS
Hydro, Wave,
& Tidal
Efficiency: New
Plant & Retrofit
2007
Ref 2030
1000 ppm
+6oC
Stabilize Needed
emissions
path
550 ppm 450ppm
+30C
+20C max
CO2 capture and
Storage
A portfolio of Clean Energy Solutions Needed to Meet Global CO2 Goals
World economic growth drives
electricity demand growth
Electricity Consumption Growth %
6%
Economic Growth %
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
-2%
Source: ALSTOM
Global GDP Growth in PPP 2005
2010f
2009e
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
-1%
1992
0%
Economic Recovery
Developing Countries leading Power Demand
World Bank Forecast GDP Growth
10
S. Asia
E. Asia
& Pacific
8
% change yr on yr
6
MENA
4
US
2
EUROPE
0
'2008
-2
-4
-6
2009e
2010f
f2011f
2012f
50 years of Directions in
Global Power Markets
R.E.R Wave
•GW p.a
•Global boom
•China
•Asia
•300
•250
•South & Central America
•200
•150
•100
•US
boom
•North America
Oil
•Post WW II
economic
development
Replacement
•China
boom
•Middle East & Africa
•Europe
•All
•boom •Global
Recession
•Liberalization &
emerging Asia
crisis
Emerging
•Source: ALSTOM
•50
•0
•61
•64
•67
•70
•73
•76
•79
•82
•85
•88
•91
•94
•97
•00
•Steam Plant
•300
•200
•Hydro
Wave
•150
•09e
•Gas
boom
•Nuclear
Nuclear
•06
•Coal
boom
•GT Plant
First
•250
•03
•Wind
•100
•Source: ALSTOM
•50
•0
•61
Renewable
•64
•67
•70
•73
•76
•79
•82
•85
•88
•91
•94
•97
•00
•03
•06
•09e
Drivers leading to the “triple” investment wave - R.E.R – are still valid ahead:
Replacement in old countries + Investment in fast growing Emerging countries + Renewable
Global power market forecast – medium term
New power plant orders in GW p.a.
Av 220 / 240 GW p.a.
NAM
Europe
China
Russia & Cis
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
LAM
India
Asia
MEA
Steam
Gas
Source: ALSTOM
Uncertain pace of recovery after global crisis, but in next decade
Asia will lead
Fossil remains a workhorse
Strong Growth in Renewables
Solid Nuclear Market
Agenda
Introduction to Alstom
Power Market Drivers
Global Project Logistics
Manufacturing units
Canada
nnnnnn
U.S.
Mexico
Brazil
Gatineau
Tracy
Chattanooga, Richmond
Morelia
Taubate
India
nnnnnn
China
Indonesia
Baroda
Durgapur, Shahabad
Beijing, Sizhou, Wuhan
Tianjin
Surabaya
THERMAL
HYDRO
WIND
France
nnnnnn
Germany
---Italy
Spain
Portugal
Belfort,
Grenoble
Berlin, Bexbach,
Mannheim, Neumark,
Sesto
Bunel, Rio del Pozo/Somozas
Setubal
Switzerland
U.K.
Croatia
Hungary
Poland
Romania
Birr
Rugby, Stafford
Karlovac
Budapest
Elblag, Wroclaw
Bucharest
Examples of our power projects
•Aghada
•435 MW KA26 EPC
•Comanche
•820 MW Boiler, Steam Plant
•Los•Humeros
•25 MW Geothermal
•Astoria
•HRSGs
•Le•Vieux•Moulin
•24 MW Wind
•Shoaiba
•14x400 MW Oil Fired Steam Plants
•Ling•Ao
•2x1080 MW Nuclear ST
•Combigolfe
•435 MW KA26 Combined Cycle
•Utran
•370 MW KA26 Combined Cycle
•Foz do Chapeco
•4x217 MW Hydro Plant
Project Photos
Astoria HRSGs
Project Photos
Astoria HRSGs
Most recent manufacturing investments
Camaçari
(Bahia
Region)
Tianjin hydro factory phase 1
up and running
Wuhan Boiler factory
opened in November 2009
Wind: Brazil and US entry on going in
Salvador de Bahia and Amarillo Texas
Chattanooga turbines
factory (USA): inauguration
June 2010
IMMA hydro factory
Inauguration March 2010
Localisation of production in key markets for the future
The Chattanooga Project
Building the new factory on an existing site
Downtown
Chattanooga
Existing
Boilers
Operations
32 31
Barge dock
New Turbines Operations
30 29
Alstom’s Chattanooga investment
Rebirth of a Major US Manufacturing Facility
Reactor parts heading to San Onofre, CA
Balancing tunnel steel liner coming from Indonesia
A glorious history: 99 nuclear vessels & 59 steam generators shipped
A new history in the writing
Amarillo Texas
Nacelle Assembly for N. American markets
Power Sector
One quarter of the world’s power fleet relies on Alstom technology
- Largest integrated plant base
- First carbon capture and
storage on coal power
- Global leader in air
quality control systems
- 40% of the worlds' nuclear
plants use Alstom equipment
- Most comprehensive range
of renewable technologies
- World’s largest operating
turbine generator set
- World leader in hydropower
- World's most powerful
on shore wind turbine
A global leader in power generation
- 100 years of experience in power
- Largest local field service
organization in the world