Detergent Alkylates - World Markets to 2025

Transcription

Prospectus
Detergent Alkylates World Markets to 2025
Colin A. Houston & Associates
Chemical market intelligence experts since 1971
Raw Materials &
Intermediate Chemicals
Major Industrial End Uses
CAHA ResearchAgriculture
Chemical Market
Oleochemicals
Normal Paraffins
Alpha-Olefins
Asphalt
Intelligence
Cement
Corrosion Inhibitors
Dispersants
Detergent Alkylates
Food
Higher Alcohols
Leather
Alkylphenols
Ethylene Oxide
Metalworking
Oil Field & Refinery
Ore Flotation
Paint
Paper
Petroleum Additives
Plastics & Elastomers
Polishers
Slurries
Textiles
Wallboard
Colin A. Houston & Associates, Inc.
262 Eastgate Drive 323
Aiken, South Carolina 29803 USA
Telephone 1 803-226-0350
EmailCAHA_Research@colinhouston.com
Onlinewww.colin-houston.com
2
Detergent Alkylates World Markets to 2025
Overview
Contents
Description of the Study 5
Table of Contents6
List of Tables 11
List of Figures15
Sample Tables 16
Qualifications and Personnel 20
The market for LAB is 3.2 million tons/year and is forecast to grow 2.5
percent annually to 2025. Over the last ten years, LAB had been pressured
by the high cost of petroleum and competing surfactants gained ground in
its markets. Valued at $6.3 billion in 2013, the largest component in the
market is demand in Asia which accounts for 50 percent of usage. Asia is
growing at 3.2 percent annually. These are among the findings of Detergent
Alkylates - World Markets to 2025. The comprehensive study was published
in July 2015 and is the sixth in a series of multiclient studies on LAB by
Colin A. Houston & Associates since the mid-1980s.
How to Subscribe22
The report compares the economics of five different plant configurations in
two countries: the U.S. and India. Integrated and non-integrated economics
are compared as well as the HF and Detal-Plus® catalyst systems.
For over 50 years, LAB has been the most widely used surfactant intermediate.
The LAB market has continued to grow over the last decade, led by Asia.
Competing surfactants have lost economic advantage as LAB prices have
corrected with oil prices since the end of 2014. Asian consumption is
forecast to grow 3.2 percent annually through 2025. A capacity buildup
in China has driven a surplus that is being exported to a wide number of
areas.
The report details trade movements from producer countries to customer
markets in more than 50 different countries. Ex-regional trade has grown
from 18 percent of production in 2006 to 22 percent in 2013, notably from
the Middle East and West Europe. China’s ex-regional trade has also grown
over the period.
3
Detergent Alkylates - World Markets to 2025 includes
a detailed global analysis of LAB and its sulfonated
derivatives by region. The study reports on consumption
and trends, as well as competing materials. It evaluates
historical, current and future supplies (based on current
announcements) in each region and documents trade by
country for 2013.
Growth of LAB use is supported by increased living
standards and a corresponding rise in per capita
detergent consumption in the developing areas. In
addition, the ongoing conversions from branched alkylates
and soap use support demand. Spare LAB represents
an opportunity for the second and third tier detergent
producers to expand their business and erode the use of
soap-based products. New product types that favor LABbased formulations have given a temporary boost in the
North American market.
The study provides a full view of all facets of the detergent
alkylate industry: raw material supplies and requirements,
producers, regional markets, surfactant consumption,
environmental issues, and sulfonation capacities. It
provides the outlook for LAB and derivatives on a regional
and global basis in the context of formulation issues,
consumer preference, competition with other surfactants,
demographics, and environmental and customer-related
issues.
Other developments in the evolution of detergent
ingredients represent challenges for LAB usage. For
one, increased reliance on enzymes in cleaning systems
is reducing demand for surfactants. The recent wave of
new detergent alcohol capacity has resulted, at times,
in a surplus of more than a million tons. Fortunately
these new supplies have limited ability to replace LAB’s
key applications. Competition between the primary
surfactants is described in a chapter on End Markets.
The subscription price for this study is $24,500. The
following pages contain the Table of Contents and other
details. Please contact us for further details, or if you
have any questions.
The recent high priced plateau of crude oil left the
economics of LAB production vulnerable to ethylene- and
vegetable oil-based products. However, the volatility of
vegetable-based oils has limited the effect on the LAB
industry during the past five years. With oleo-based
surfactants no longer undercutting the petroleum-derived
economics, the outlook for LAB use has improved.
Technical developments have provided some new
opportunities for LAB. The development of novel feedstocks
could reposition LAB as a surfactant intermediate derived
from renewable sources. The opportunity of modified LAB
should not be overlooked, especially as the technology
comes off patent and the practice of low temperature
washing becomes more widespread.
4
DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY
Detergent Alkylates - World Markets to 2025 is a
comprehensive study which details the production,
capacity, trade and supply/demand balance by region for
LAB. Major factors affecting the outlook are examined
including
raw
material
requirements,
surfactant
consumption trends, novel technological developments,
production costs, prices, sulfonation capacity, and
environmental issues, among others.
Historical and
forecast consumption of LABS is reviewed in depth
for the 2005-2025 period by application and end use,
incorporating an understanding of the formulation trends,
competition with alcohol-based surfactants, consumer
preferences and customer-oriented requirements.
A brief discussion of each of the main chapters is
provided below.
5
CHAPTER ONE
TABLE OF CONTENTS
I. Raw Materials
More than 90 percent of all LAB produced today is based
Normal Paraffins
I-1
TechnologyI-3
Feedstocks for Separation Processes
I-4
Producers and Capacities
I-5
North America
I-5
Latin America
I-6
Central & West Europe
I-7
Asia
I-8
East Europe
I-11
Middle East & Africa
I-11
ProductionI-13
Prices
I-16
Detergent End Use Utilization
I-18
World n-Paraffin Demand Forecast for Alkylate
I-18
North America
I-18
Latin America
I-19
I-19
Asia
I-19
East Europe
I-19
I-19
on n-paraffin feedstock. Declining TnP levels in kerosene
have effectively reduced the output at several n-paraffin
units and some other locations face kerosene shortages.
Merchant internal and alpha-olefin use remains an
important alternative for producing LAB, and provides the
opportunity for some producers to increase incremental
production.
The use of normal paraffins, internal and alpha-olefins
is tracked and forecast through the 2005-2025 period,
Internal Olefins
along with capacities and new plant announcements.
I-21
TechnologyI-21
Paraffin Dehydrogenation
I-21
Isomerization and Disproportionation
I-23
I-23
Shell
I-23
Sasol
I-24
Fushun
I-24
ElevanceI-24
ProductionI-25
Supply/Demand Issues
I-25
I-26
World IO Demand Forecast for Alkylate
I-26
Supply/demand issues are addressed for each of these
raw materials. A brief overview of raw material trends
and issues, supported by data, is included. New process
routes are discussed.
Alpha-OlefinsI-28
TechnologyI-28
I-29
ProductionI-33
Supply/Demand Issues
I-33
I-34
Alpha-Olefin Demand Forecast for Alkylate
I-35
6
CHAPTER TWO
TABLE OF CONTENTS
II. Technology and Economics for LAB
Sources and Technologies
This section reviews alkylbenzene technologies including
Starting Materials and Processes
Olefins
Alkyl Chlorides
Plant Operation
LAB Compositions
Developments in Technology
UOP/CEPSA Transalkylation
New CEPSA/UOP Super-High 2-Phenyl Process
Recent UOP LAB Technology Developments
processes, catalysts and resulting LAB compositions. A
discussion of the ongoing technological developments
explores the status of new processes, and the potential
for heavier and more branched grades of LABS is
included. Recent developments covered include UOP’s
Process Technology Economic Assessments
new transalkylation process, as well as recently patented
With the twin challenges of LAB producer competition
and competing surfactants, CAHA has included a new
The
in-depth analysis of the process economics examines five
configurations for both integrated and non-integrated
complexes in two countries.
The different technology
platforms and their implications (HF or Detal®) are
reviewed.
II-2
II-2
II-4
II-4
II-6
II-09
II-12
II-16
II-20
II-21
IntroductionII-21
USGC LAB Plant Location Cases
II-22
Indian LAB Plant Location Cases
II-26
Comparison of USGC and
Indian LAB Plant Cases
II-29
processes to manufacture LAB based on vegetable oils.
section to evaluate LAB production economics.
II-1
7
CHAPTER THREE
TABLE OF CONTENTS
III. LAB Markets and Pricing
Markets
Regional market analyses include overviews of current,
World Overview
III-1
Capacity
III-1
Production
III-2
Trade Balance
III-3
Consumption
III-3
North America
III-7
III-7
Supply/Demand Balance
III-10
Imports/Exports
III-12
Consumption
III-14
Market Trends and Issues
III-14
Demand Forecast
III-15
Latin America
III-16
III-16
III-18
Imports/Exports
III-20
Consumption
III-22
III-22
Demand Forecast
III-23
III-25
III-25
III-28
Imports/Exports
III-29
Consumption
III-31
III-31
Demand Forecast
III-31
Asia/PacificIII-32
III-32
III-40
Imports/Exports
III-41
Consumption
III-46
III-47
Demand Forecast
III-47
East Europe
III-48
III-48
III-49
Imports/Exports
III-50
Consumption
III-52
III-52
Demand Forecast
III-53
III-54
III-54
III-59
Imports/Exports
III-60
Consumption
III-64
III-64
Demand Forecast
III-65
Branched Alkylbenzene Overview
III-65
III-65
Consumption
III-66
Demand Outlook
III-67
historical and future capacities with detailed discussions
of each producer.
The regional 2005-2013 supply/
demand balances present and discuss demand growth,
production, and operating rates. A forecast 2014-2025
supply/demand
balance
includes
expectations
III-1
for
demand growth in the context of current and future
supply. Regional LAB surplus and deficits are quantified
based on meeting future regional demand patterns.
A series of country-level trade balances offer valuable
insight regarding inter-regional movements of LAB.
Estimated production by producer, and consumption,
market trends and demand-oriented issues are addressed
by country.
Included for the first time, a regional discussion of pricing
of kerosene, benzene, n-paraffins and LAB is included. In
addition, the analysis contains histories as well as price
forecasts through 2025 for these materials.
8
Historical & Forecast Pricing
III-68
North America
West Europe
Southeast Asia
III-69
III-73
III-76
CHAPTER FOUR
TABLE OF CONTENTS
IV. Surfactant End Use Market Trends
and Issues
An analysis of global and regional surfactant markets
and discusses LABS, along with competing surfactants:
ethoxylates,
sulfates,
methyl
alcohol
ester
ethoxysulfates,
sulfonates
and
alcohol
IV-8
IV-18
SummaryIV-18
Household Products
IV-21
Industrial & Institutional Cleaners
IV-22
Industrial Applications
IV-23
and green claims by consumer product producers
Central & West Europe Markets
Other formulation issues, consumer
IV-24
SummaryIV-24
Household Products
IV-27
Surfactant Consumption
IV-28
IV-29
IV-30
preferences, and competition with other products such as
alcohol-based surfactants is presented by major end use
area:
North America Markets
Latin American Markets
alkylphenol
ethoxylates. The outlook for any impact from sustainability
is reviewed.
IV-1
SummaryIV-8
Household Products
IV-11
IV-12
IV-14
IV-16
details total surfactant consumption by end use market
alcohol
World Overview
household, industrial and institutional cleaners,
Asia/Pacific Markets
IV-32
SummaryIV-32
Household Products
IV-35
IV-37
IV-38
and industrial applications.
East Europe Markets
IV-40
SummaryIV-40
Household Products
IV-42
IV-42
IV-43
Middle East & Africa Markets
IV-44
SummaryIV-44
Household Products
IV-47
IV-47
Industrial & Institutional Cleaners and
IV-48
9
CHAPTER FIVE
TABLE OF CONTENTS
V. Environmental Issues
BiodegradabilityV-5
Environmental and health issues related to linear
alkylbenzene sulfonates as well as other surfactants
are reviewed. Issues such as biodegradability, toxicity
Methods for Determination of Biodegradability
Specific Analytical Methods
Biodegradation Test Procedures
Testing Protocols for the Biodegradability
of Surfactants
Historical Environmental Studies
V-17
V-17
V-18
V-28
V-28
and environmental pollution are discussed and their
Risk Assessment
V-44
potential
consumption
Toxicity
V-56
Legislative efforts, testing methods and
Toxicity Testing
Legislation Related to Toxicity
V-61
V-65
Environmental Safety
V-68
Environmental Pollution
V-75
Environmentally Friendly Purchasing
V-84
Life Cycle Inventory
V-85
Regional Reviews and Outlook
V-88
evaluated.
impact
on
future
regional
results are explained along with other prominent issues.
A review of implications from recently published life cycle
assessments is presented.
CHAPTER SIX
VI. Linear and Branched Alkylbenzene
Sulfonates
This chapter covers sulfonation technology, a detailed
listing of producers, and an evaluation of the LABS
markets. LABS consumption is analyzed over the 20052025 period for each major region.
Consumption of
LABS is segmented by end-use market (household, I&I,
industrial), over the 2005-2025 period. Each regional
analysis encompasses a discussion of end-use markets
and customers in which demographics, formulations,
environmental issues and customer-related issues are
evaluated.
10
TechnologyVI-1
SulfonationVI-1
Utilization
VI-27
Markets
VI-28
World Overview
VI-28
North America
VI-34
Producers, Capacities, Locations
VI-34
Major End Use Markets/Customers
VI-36
Latin America
VI-37
VI-37
ConsumptionVI-40
End Use Markets/Customers
VI-41
VI-42
VI-42
VI-45
Asia/PacificVI-46
VI-46
ConsumptionVI-55
VI-55
East Europe
VI-56
VI-56
VI-58
VI-59
VI-59
ConsumptionVI-64
VI-64
LIST OF TABLES
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY8 TABLES
No.
Table Description
Page
1
World - LAB Demand by Region, 2013-2025
iii
2
World - LAB Balance, 2013
v
3
World - LAB Demand, Capacity and Difference by Region, 2013-2025
vi
4
Summary Results Compared for USGC Plant Configurations
ix
5
Summary Results Compared for Indian Plant Configurations
ix
6
World - Major Primary Surfactant Consumption by Type, 2005-2025
x
7
World - Linear Alkylbenzene Sulfonate Consumption by Region, 2005-2025
xi
8
World - LABS Consumption by Selected End Use and by Region, 2005-2025
xii
CHAPTER ONE: RAW MATERIALS16 TABLES
No.
Table Description
I-1
n-Paraffin Capacity by Region, 2005 and 2015
Page
I-5
I-2
North America - n-Paraffin Producers, Locations & Capacities 2013
I-6
I-3
Latin America - n-Paraffin Producers, Locations & Capacities 2013
I-6
I-4
Central & West Europe - n-Paraffin Producers, Locations & Capacities, 2013
I-7
I-5
Asia - n-Paraffin Producers, Locations & Capacities, 2013
I-10
I-6
East Europe - n-Paraffin Producers, Locations & Capacities, 2013
I-11
I-7
Middle East & Africa - n-Paraffin Producers, Locations & Capacities, 2013
I-13
I-8
n-Paraffin Project Outook
I-16
I-9
Asia - Historical Average Annual C10-13 n-Paraffin Prices
I-16
I-10
Asia - Recent Quarterly C10-13 n-Paraffin Prices 2012-2015, CFR
I-17
I-11
World - Normal Paraffin Demand for Linear Alkylbenzene, 2005-2025
I-20
I-12
World - Internal Olefin Producers, 2013
I-24
I-13
World - Internal Olefin Demand for Linear Alkylbenzene, 2005-2025
I-27
I-14
World - Alpha-Olefin Producers, 2013
I-32
I-15
C12 Alpha-Olefin Capacity by Region, 2008-2013
I-34
I-16
World - Alpha-Olefin Demand for Linear Alkylbenzene, 2005-2025
I-36
CHAPTER TWO: TECHNOLOGY & ECONOMICS FOR LAB
10 TABLES
No.
Table Description
II-1
Typical High and Low 2-Phenyl LAB Compositions
II-2
Typical Linear Alkylbenzene Compositions
II-10
II-3
Summary - Configuration Plan of Five Economic Plant Cost Evaluations
II-22
II-4
Summary Results Compared for USGC Plant Configurations
II-23
II-5
Estimated Production Costs - USGC LAB Plant- UOP HF Alkylation
II-24
II-6
Estimated Production Costs - Integrated USGC LAB Plant - UOP HF Alkylation
II-25
II-7
Estimated Production Costs - Integrated USGC LAB Plant - UOP Detal with Transalkylation
II-26
II-8
Summary Results Compared for Indian Plant Configurations
II-27
II-9
Estimated Production Costs - Integrated Indian LAB Plant - UOP HF Alkylation
II-28
Estimated Production Costs - Integrated Indian LAB Plant - UOP Detal with Transalkylation
II-29
II-10
Page
II-7
®
®
11
CHAPTER THREE: LAB MARKETS AND PRICING
42 TABLES
No.
Table Description
Page
III-1
World - LAB Capacity by Region, 2013
III-1
III-2
World - LAB Production by Region, 2005-2013
III-2
III-3
World - LAB Balance, 2013
III-3
III-4
World - LAB Demand by Region, 2005-2013
III-4
III-5
World - LAB Demand, Capacity and Difference by Region, 2005-2025
III-6
III-6
North America - LAB Producers, 2013
III-7
III-7
North America - Historical and Forecast LAB Capacities, 2005-2025
III-8
III-8
North America - LAB Supply/Demand Balance, 2010-2013
III-11
III-9
North America - LAB Supply/Demand Forecast, 2013-2025
III-12
III-10
North America - LAB Trade Balance, 2013
III-13
III-11
Latin America - LAB Producers, 2013
III-16
III-12
Latin America - Historical and Forecast LAB Capacities, 2005-2025
III-17
III-13
Latin America - LAB Supply/Demand, 2010-2013
III-19
III-14
Latin America - LAB Supply/Demand, 2005-2025
III-19
III-15
Latin America - LAB Trade Balance, 2013
III-21
III-16
Central & West Europe - LAB Producers, 2013
III-25
III-17
Central & West Europe - Historical and Forecast LAB Capacities, 2005-2025
III-26
III-18
Central & West Europe - LAB Supply/Demand, 2010-2013
III-28
III-19
Central & West Europe - LAB Supply/Demand, 2013-2025
III-28
III-20
Central & West Europe - LAB Trade Balance, 2013
III-29
III-21
Asia/Pacific - LAB Producers, 2013
III-32
III-22
Asia/Pacific - Historical and Forecast LAB Capacities, 2005-2025
III-35
III-23
Asia/Pacific - LAB Supply/Demand, 2010-2013
III-40
III-24
Asia/Pacific - LAB Supply/Demand Forecast, 2005-2025
III-41
III-25
Asia/Pacific - LAB Trade Balance, 2013
III-43
III-26
East Europe - LAB Producers, 2013
III-48
III-27
East Europe - Historical and Forecast LAB Capacity, 2005-2025
III-49
III-28
East Europe - LAB Supply/Demand, 2010-2013
III-49
III-29
East Europe - LAB Supply/Demand, 2013-2025
III-50
III-30
East Europe - LAB Trade Balance, 2013
III-51
III-31
Middle East & Africa - LAB Producers, 2013
III-54
III-32
Middle East & Africa - Historical and Forecast LAB Capacities, 2005-2025
III-55
III-33
Middle East & Africa - LAB Supply/Demand, 2010-2013
III-59
III-34
Middle East & Africa - LAB Supply/Demand, 2013-2025
III-59
III-35
Middle East & Africa - LAB Trade Balance, 2013
III-61
III-36
World - BAB Producers, 2013
III-65
III-37
U.S. - Historical LAB and Input Prices, 2005-2015
III-70
III-38
U.S. - Forecast LAB and Input Prices, 2015-2025
III-72
III-39
West Europe - Historical LAB and Input Prices, 2005-2015
III-73
III-40
West Europe - Forecast LAB and Input Prices, 2015-2025
III-75
III-41
Asia - Historical LAB and Input Prices, 2005-2015
III-77
III-42
Asia - Forecast LAB and Input Prices, 2015-2025
III-79
12
CHAPTER FOUR: SURFACTANT END MARKET TRENDS AND ISSUES
34 TABLES
No.
Table Description
IV-1
World - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption by End Use, 2005-2025
IV-4
IV-2
World - Primary Surfactant Consumption by Region, 2005-2025
IV-6
IV-3
World - Major Primary Surfactant Consumption by Type, 2005-2025
IV-7
IV-4
North America - Surfactant Consumption by End Market Area, 2005-2025
IV-9
IV-5
North America - Total Primary Surfactant Use, 2005-2025
IV-10
IV-6
North America - Surfactant Consumption in Household Products, 2005-2025
IV-12
IV-7
North America - Surfactant Consumption by Type in Industrial and Institutional Cleaners, 2005-2025
IV-15
IV-8
North America - Surfactant Consumption in Industrial End Uses, 2005-2025
IV-16
IV-9
Major Latin America Trade Union Members
IV-18
IV-10
Latin America - Primary Surfactant Consumption by End Market Area, 2005-2025
IV-19
IV-11
Latin America - Surfactant Consumption by Type, 2005-2025
IV-20
IV-12
Latin America - Surfactant Consumption by Type in Household Products, 2005-2025
IV-22
IV-13
Latin America - Surfactant Consumption by Type in Industrial and Institutional Cleaners, 2005-2025
IV-23
IV-14
Latin America - Surfactant Consumption by Type in Industrial End Uses, 2005-2025
IV-23
IV-15
Central & West Europe Countries
IV-24
IV-16
Central & West Europe - Surfactant Consumption by End Market Area, 2005-2025
IV-25
IV-17
Central & West Europe - Total Surfactant Consumption by Type, 2005-2025
IV-27
IV-18
Central & West Europe - Surfactant Consumption by Type in Household Products, 2005-2025
IV-28
IV-19
Central & West Europe - Surfactant Consumption by Type in Industrial and Institutional Cleaners, 2005 -2025
IV-29
IV-20
Central & West Europe - Surfactant Consumption by Type in Industrial End Uses, 2005-2025
IV-31
IV-21
Asia/Pacific - Surfactant Consumption by End Market Area, 2005-2025
IV-33
IV-22
Asia/Pacific - Total Surfactant Consumption by Type, 2005-2025
IV-35
IV-23
Asia/Pacific - Surfactant Consumption by Type in Household Products, 2005-2025
IV-37
IV-24
Asia/Pacific - Surfactant Consumption by Type in Industrial & Institutional Cleaners, 2005-2025
IV-38
IV-25
Asia/Pacific - Surfactant Consumption by Type in Industrial End Uses, 2005-2025
IV-39
IV-26
East Europe Countries
IV-40
IV-27
East Europe - Surfactant Consumption by End Market Area, 2005-2025
IV-41
IV-28
East Europe - Total Surfactant Consumption by Type, 2005-2025
IV-42
IV-29
East Europe - Surfactant Consumption by Type in Household Products, 2005-2025
IV-43
IV-30
East Europe - Surfactant Consumption by Type in I&I Cleaners and Industrial End Uses, 2005-2025
IV-43
IV-31
Middle East & Africa - Surfactant Consumption by End Market Area, 2005-2025
IV-45
IV-32
Middle East & Africa - Total Surfactant Consumption by Type, 2005-2025
IV-46
IV-33
Middle East & Africa - Surfactant Consumption by Type in Household Products, 2005-2025
IV-48
IV-34
Middle East & Africa - Surfactant Consumption by Type in I&I Cleaners and Industrial End Uses, 2005-2025
IV-49
Page
13
CHAPTER FIVE: ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES
10 TABLES
No.
Table Description
Page
V-1
OECD Screen and Confirmatory Test Conditions
V-20
V-2
Tests for Ready Biodegradability Recommended by OECD
V-25
V-3
Tests for Inherent Biodegradability Recommended by OECD
V-26
V-4
Simulation Tests for Biodegradability
V-27
V-5
Primary and Ultimate Biodegradability of LABS and BABS In Standard Laboratory Test Procedures
V-29
V-6
Biodegradability Data on Various Surfactants
V-43
V-7
Risk Characterization of Four Surfactants In Japan
V-52
V-8
Results of Mammalian Toxicology Tests With LABS
V-56
V-9
Toxicity Data on Various Surfactants
V-64
AISE Guidelines - Aquatic Toxicity
V-69
V-10
CHAPTER SIX: LINEAR ALKYLBENZENE SULFONATES
33 TABLES
No.
Table Description
Page
VI-1
World - Sulfation/Sulfonation Capacity Summary by Region, 2005-2014
VI-3
VI-2
North America - Sulfators/Sulfonators Plants, Location and Capacity, 2014
VI-4
VI-3
Latin America - Sulfators/Sulfonators Plants, Location and Capacity, 2014
VI-7
VI-4
Central & West Europe - Sulfators/Sulfonators Plants, Location and Capacity, 2014
VI-10
VI-5
Asia/Pacific - Sulfators/Sulfonators Plants, Location and Capacity, 2014
VI-14
VI-6
East Europe - Sulfators/Sulfonators Plants Location and Capacity, 2014
VI-22
VI-7
Middle East - Sulfators/Sulfonators Plants, Location and Capacity, 2014
VI-23
VI-8
Africa - Sulfators/Sulfonators Plants Location and Capacity, 2014
VI-25
VI-9
World - LABS Consumption by Region, 2005-2025
VI-30
VI-10
World - LABS Consumption by Major End Use and by Region, 2005-2025
VI-31
VI-11
World - MES Consumption by Region, 2005-2025
VI-33
VI-12
North America - LABS Consumption by Selected End Use, 2005-2025
VI-34
VI-13
North America - Major LABS Producers, Location and Capacities, 2014
VI-35
VI-14
Latin America - LABS Consumption by Selected End Use, 2005-2025
VI-37
VI-15
Latin America - Major LABS Producers, Location and Capacity, 2014
VI-38
VI-16
Central & West Europe - LABS Consumption by Selected End Use, 2005-2025
VI-42
VI-17
Central & West Europe - Major LABS Producers, Location and Capacity, 2014
VI-43
VI-18
Asia/Pacific - LABS Consumption by Selected End Use, 2005-2025
VI-46
VI-19
Asia/Pacific - Major LABS Producers, Location and Capacity, 2014
VI-47
VI-20
East Europe - LABS Consumption by Selected End Use, 2005-2025
VI-56
VI-21
East Europe - Major LABS Producers, Location and Capacity, 2014
VI-57
VI-22
Middle East & Africa - LABS Consumption by Selected End Use, 2005-2025
VI-59
VI-23
Middle East- Major LABS Producers, Location and Capacity, 2014
VI-60
VI-24
Africa - Major LABS Producers, Location and Capacity, 2014
VI-62
14
LIST OF FIGURES
No.
Figure Description
Page
I-1
Petrochemicals Used in Surfactant Intermediate Manufacture
I-2
Commercial Utilization Routes of n-Paraffins in Detergent Intermediate Manufacture
I-3
“Pacol-Olex” Unit Configuration
I-22
II-1
LAB Transalkylation Reaction
II-13
II-2
LAB Process Flow Diagram Including Transalkylation Module
II-14
II-3
Projected Reduction (improvement) - n-Paraffin Usage per Ton of LAB
II-16
II-4
Projected Economic Benefits of Detal-Plus - Added Profit in $MM per Year
II-17
II-5
CEPSA High 2-Phenyl LAB Process
II-18
II-6
CEPSA High 2-Phenyl LAB Process Using Purchased Olefin Feedstock
II-19
II-7
CEPSA High 2-Phenyl LAS Formulations With and Without Added Hydrotrope
II-20
III-1
U.S. - Historical LAB & Input Prices, 2005-2015
III-71
III-2
U.S. - Forecast LAB & Input Prices, 2015-2025
III-72
III-3
West Europe - Historical LAB & Input Prices, 2005-2015
III-74
III-4
West Europe - Forecast LAB & Input Prices, 2015-2025
III-75
III-5
Asia - Historical LAB & Input Prices, 2005-2015
III-78
III-6
Asia - Forecast LAB & Input Prices, 2015-2025
III-79
IV-1
Regional Liquid/Powder Detergent Outlook, 2015-2025
IV-2
IV-2
North America - Surfactant consumption by End Use
IV-9
VI-1
Total LABS Consumption By Region, 2013 and 2025
VI-29
VI-2
World - LABS Consumption By End Use, 2013
VI-31
®
15
I-1
I-2
SAMPLE TABLES
Table 2 | WORLD - LAB BALANCE, 2013
(thousand tons)
Capacity
Production
Net Imports
Net Exports
Consumption
North America
Latin America
Asia/Pacific
East Europe
TOTAL
Table I-11 | WORLD - NORMAL PARAFFIN DEMAND FOR LAB, 2005-2025
(thousand tons)
Raw Material
2005
2010
2013
2015
2020
2025
CAGR %
2005-2013
CAGR %
2013-2025
North America
Latin America
Asia
East Europe
TOTAL
Table II-10 | ESTIMATED PRODUCTION COSTS - INTEGRATED INDIAN LAB PLANT UOP DETAL® WITH TRANSALKYLATION
(thousand tons)
Unit
Capacity:
000-T/yr
Capital:
$ Million
Date of Estimate
Q4 2014
Cost ($/ton)
Utilization
(tons/ton)
Cost ($/ton of
product)
Raw Materials
Kerosene
ton
Benzene
ton
Others (Catalyst, etc.)
ton
16
Table II-10 | ESTIMATED PRODUCTION COSTS - INTEGRATED INDIAN LAB PLANT - UOP
DETAL® WITH TRANSALKYLATION (continued)
(thousand tons)
Unit
Capacity:
000-T/yr
Capital:
$ Million
Date of Estimate
Q4 2014
Cost ($/ton)
Utilization
(tons/ton)
Cost ($/ton of
product)
By-product credit
Light Ends
ton
Heavy Alkylate
ton
By-product H2 for Fuel
ton
Kero Raffinate
ton
Net cost of raw material
Utilities
Electricity
KWH
Steam
mmBTU
Cooling Water
mGal
Fuel Oil
mmBTU
Total Utilities (fuel, power, steam)
Direct operating cost
Labor (op. and lab)
MOR
Supervision and tech.
Man
Maintenance (labor & mat)
% of inv
Other
Direct and Indirect overhead costs
Total Factory Cost
Total manufacturing cost - unamortized
Amortization @ 10%/year
Sales, Distribution and administrative
Logistics & Transportation
Total costs
Required price @ 12% ATROCE
ATROCE @ prevailing market price
Table III-8 | NORTH AMERICA - LAB SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE, 2010-2013
(thousand tons)
2010
2011
2012
Demand
Net Exports (Imports)
Production
Capacity
Operating Rate (%)
TOTAL
17
2013
CAGR %
2010-2013
Table III-15 | LATIN AMERICA - LAB TRADE BALANCE, 2013
(thousand tons)
Country/Producer
Producer
Capacity
Production
Imports
Country
Volume
Exports
Country
Volume
Consumption
ARGENTINA
BRAZIL
VENEZUELA
COLOMBIA
ECUADOR
PERU
CHILE
CENTRAL AMERICA
CARIBBEAN REGION
18
Table III-15 | LATIN AMERICA - LAB TRADE BALANCE, 2013 (continued)
(thousand tons)
Country/Producer
Producer
Capacity
Imports
Production
Country
Volume
Exports
Country
Volume
Consumption
Other S. America
TOTAL
Ex-reg.
Ex-reg.
Table III-24 | ASIA/PACIFIC - LAB SUPPLY/DEMAND FORECAST, 2005-2025
(thousand tons)
2005
2010
2013
2015
2020
2025
CAGR %
2005-2013
CAGR %
2013-2025
Demand
Capacity
Surplus (Deficit) Capacity
TOTAL
Table IV-18 | CENTRAL & WEST EUROPE - SURFACTANT CONSUMPTION BY TYPE IN
HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS, 2005-2025
(thousand tons)
2005
2010
2013
LABS
MES
AS
AES
AE
TOTAL a
a
Does not include soap
19
2015
2020
2025
CAGR %
2005-2013
CAGR %
2013-2025
QUALIFICATIONS AND PERSONNEL
Joel H. Houston,
Colin A. Houston & Associates, Inc. was founded in 1971
to provide consulting services to the chemical industry
President, was the project leader
on HIGHER ALCOHOLS TO 2025 and numerous other
worldwide. The primary area of expertise is surfactants:
multiclient studies including, NORMAL PARAFFINS - WORLD
raw materials, intermediates, major surfactants, and the
MARKETS, 2007-2017, DETERGENT ALKYLATES - WORLD
surfactant consuming industries. Other areas of activity
MARKETS, 2006-2016, OPPORTUNITIES IN PERFORMANCE
include: a variety of industry studies on such topics as oilfield
SURFACTANTS IN WEST EUROPE, SURFACTANTS FOR
chemicals, detergent builders, ingredients for personal care
EMERGING MARKETS IN ASIA/PACIFIC, 1996-2010, and
products, and bleaching agents; engineering studies such
SURFACTANTS FOR CONSUMER PRODUCTS - NORTH
as a worldwide study of glycerine evaporation plants with
AMERICAN FORECAST TO 2008. He has guided CAHA’s
recommendations for improved efficiency; process economics
research in oleochemicals since 1980, and in detergents
of world alpha-olefin plants; benchmarking of process
since 1987. Mr. Houston has extensive experience in projects
economics for U.S. fatty acid producers; a world study of the
for consumer products, has presented papers at CESIO,
state of the art in spray-drying detergents; contracts with the
AOCS, BACS, ECMRA and IESD meetings, and is the editor
U.S. Government to develop industry effluent guidelines; and
of CAHA’s global newsletters, LAB MARKET REPORT and
business strategy and acquisition studies.
SURFACTANT DEVELOPMENTS. He is a member of PDMA,
AOCS and ASTM.
The reputation thus earned by CAHA for comprehensive,
high quality technoeconomic and market analyses has led to
Matthew C. Jordan, Vice President, was a contributing
a variety of engineering, marketing, and strategic planning
author to DETERGENT ALKYLATES – WORLD MARKETS, 2006-
studies for individual clients in North America, Latin America,
2016, NORMAL PARAFFINS – WORLD MARKETS, 2007-2017,
West Europe, Asia/Pacific, Africa and the Middle East.
and HIGHER ALCOHOLS TO 2025. He is the project leader for
the monthly LAB MARKET REPORT, as well as a contributing
CAHA completed its first global higher alcohols multiclient
author to CAHA’s SURFACTANT DEVELOPMENTS and C12-22
study in 1980, and covered higher alcohols and related issues
REVIEW, A HIGHER ALCOHOLS JOURNAL newsletters.
in several major multiclient studies during the 1980s including
Since joining CAHA full time in 2007, he has contributed
OLEOCHEMICAL DEVELOPMENTS (1984) and SURFACTANT
to several proprietary reports and consulting projects
INTERMEDIATES AND SOAP - WORLD BALANCES (1984).
related to intermediates including normal paraffins and
Five additional comprehensive global higher alcohols studies
linear alkylbenzene, as well as surfactant studies on linear
were completed in 1990, 1995, 2000, 2006 and in 2013
alkylbenzene sulfonates, methyl ester sulfonates, secondary
with CAHA publishing HIGHER ALCOHOLS TO 2025. These
alkane sulfonates, alpha olefins sulfonates, as well as other
multiclient studies provide an unparalleled database while
anionic and nonionic products.
CAHA’s newsletters and ongoing consulting work in surfactant
intermediates and surfactants provide a worldwide service of
up-to-date information and analyses.
The project team approach utilized by CAHA includes a
core of senior and technical professionals augmented by
expert consultant associates. The following synopses present
the staff and consultants who contributed to the study,
DETERGENT ALKYLATES - WORLD MARKETS TO 2025.
20
John Rapko, Senior Research Associate, has authored
the Higher Alcohols Technologies section of
HIGHER
ALCOHOLS TO 2025, and authored sections of DETERGENT
ALKYLATES - WORLD MARKETS, 2006-2016. Dr. Rapko
contributes to CAHA’s LAB MARKET REPORT, and has also
assisted on numerous proprietary studies. In Dr. Rapko’s
33 years of professional experience, he has directed the
work of professional chemists and chemical engineers at all
degree levels in the areas of process development, chemistry,
engineering and assessment of a range of technologies
related to areas such as the manufacture of detergent
alkylate, detergent builders and dehydrogenation catalysts.
He holds a Ph.D. and B.S. in Chemistry (ACS Certified) from
St. Louis University.
Donald M. Faison,
Research Associate,
is an
expert in market research and statistical analysis of data
with over 20 years experience in actinide chemistry and
non-destructive analysis of
gamma-rays and neutrons
in several different laboratories.
He was a contributing
author to HIGHER ALCOHOLS TO 2025 and THE C12-22
REVIEW, A HIGHER ALCOHOLS JOURNAL newsletter. Mr.
Faison contributes to CAHA’s monthly newsletter reports
SURFACTANT DEVELOPMENTS, and the LAB MARKET
REPORT. Since joining CAHA in 2012, he has contributed to
several proprietary studies including: OLEOCHEMICALS IN
LATIN AMERICA, and APE REPLACEMENTS IN THE U.S. He
was a scientist responsible for all aspects of spectroscopy
at two environmental and bio assay laboratory facilities at
the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, in Carlsbad, NM. He was
a Chemist, Radiochemist, and Senior Scientist responsible
for multiple instruments in multiple nuclear facilities. As a
Chemical Engineer, Mr. Faison was responsible for dissolution
of actinide metals and oxides, and anion resin exchange
processes. He is a member of the American Oil Chemists
Society. He holds a B.S. in Chemical Engineering, Clemson
University, (ABET accredited), and a
B.S. in Chemistry,
Furman University.
21
HOW TO SUBSCRIBE
To subscribe to the study please contact CAHA at the address below.
Aiken, SC 29803 USA
Telephone No.: +1 803-226-0350
E-Mail: CAHA_Research@colinhouston.com
Website: www.colin-houston.com
22
THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK
LIST OF MULTICLIENT STUDIES
analyzes the scale and potential effect of the rapid build-
OPPORTUNITIES
IN
PERFORMANCE
SURFACTANTS IN WEST EUROPE (January 2007)
up of new fatty alcohol capacity in Southeast Asia. The
provides an in-depth analysis on each of ten specialty
study includes synthetic and oleo-derived fatty alcohols
materials.
production economics, technology and market forecasts.
differentiation, costs, consumption and trends, competing
Twenty-two in-depth alcohol producer profiles are included.
materials and systems, and major customers as well as
Surfactant trends and markets are covered for the major
producers, including their production and market share.
alcohol derivatives.
Thirteen producers are profiled, giving an added perspective
HIGHER ALCOHOLS TO 2025 (February 2013)
NORMAL PARAFFINS - WORLD MARKETS, 20072017 (February 2009) explores the scale of a looming
Topics include product performance and
on their overall position in the specialty surfactants market.
liquid n-paraffin capacity to come on-stream in 2011. This
ALPHA-OLEFINS - WORLD MARKETS, 2000-2010
AND ALPHA-OLEFIN MARKET INTELLIGENCE
DATABASE (September 2001) analyzes all the factors
study covers the supply of normal paraffins, producers and
affecting alpha-olefin supply and demand. It assesses the
their operations, capacities, integration, and historical and
impact of new plants and potential new producers and
forecast production by region. It also covers the demand
quantifies production and consumption by chain length and
for normal paraffins, including consumption by region and
by region. It provides detailed data on over 20 individual
by end use, market trends and issues, and future supply/
end use markets including producers, production, market
demand balances.
trends and alpha-olefin consumption.
shortage and determines the potential impact of gas-to-
LIST OF NEWSLETTERS
LAB MARKET REPORT - is designed to bring together,
SURFACTANT DEVELOPMENTS NEWSLETTER
in one concise monthly publication, all the news of interest
keeps surfactant producers informed of key news and
to LAB market participants. CAHA has published this report
developments occurring in their market in a form that
since 2001. It offers current information on the entire LAB
is both concise and thorough.
value chain from raw materials to detergents and other
subscribers make efficient use of their time while gaining
end uses. There are a range of relevant feature articles
useful knowledge of specific developments and enlarging
included. Each one offers a timely and concise review of the
their understanding of the major issues shaping the market.
subject without entering into excruciating historical content
CAHA began publication of this newsletter in 2003, as an
but, nevertheless, providing sufficient content and coverage
extension of the multiclient SURFACTANT DEVELOPMENTS
so that our readership walks away with a complete picture.
- FORECAST TO 2010. A one year subscription (January-
The annually updated LAB DATABASE, included with the
December) includes four quarterly issues. Delivery of the
subscription, contains the complete list of detergent
newsletter is via Internet access.
alkylate producers and capacities by region, the LAB trade
balance and LAB price history. A one year subscription
(January-December) to the LAB MARKET REPORT AND
DATABASE includes 12 monthly issues.
Delivery of the
newsletter is via Internet access.
-
It is designed to help
AMONG CAHA’S CLIENTS ARE:
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.
AkzoNobel
Albemarle Corp.
Amway
Aradet
Ardor
Ashland Chemical
Avon Products, Inc.
BASF
Bayer AG
Bliss Chemical
Borax
Calgon Corp.
Cargill, Inc.
CasChem
CECA
Central Soya
CEPSA
Chemithon
Chemtura
Chevron Corp.
Chevron Phillips Chemical
Clariant International Ltd.
Clorox Co.
Colgate-Palmolive
Cytec Industries Inc.
Daelim Industrial Co., Ltd.
Deten Química S.A.
Dow Chemical
DSM
Dyno Industries
Eastman Chemical Products
Ecogreen Oleochemicals
Ecolab
E.I. duPont de Nemours & Co
Elevance Renewable Sciences
Emery Oleochemicals
Ethyl Corp.
Evonik
ExxonMobil Chemical Co.
Farabi Petrochemical Co.
Fluor
FMC Corp.
Galaxy Surfactants
Genencor
Givaudan
Haarman & Reimer Corp.
Hansa
Henkel
Honeywell International - UOP
Huntsman Corp.
ICIIC
Idemitsu Petrochemical Co. Ltd.
IMC Corp.
Indian Oil Corp.
INEOS
Inolex Corp.
ISU Chemical
JX Nippon Oil and Energy Corp.
Kao Corp.
Kemira Oy
Kuala Lumpur Kepong Berhad (KLK)
Lam Soon Oil & Soap Mfg.
Laporte Industries PLC
Lion Corp.
Lonza Inc.
Lubrizol Corp.
Lyondell Chemicals
Millenium Chemical Corp.
Mitsubishi Chemical
Mitsui & Co.
Muntajat
Musim Mas/ICOF
Nalco Chemical
Neste Oy
Nova Chemical
Novozymes A/S
Occidental Petroleum/Oxychem
OLEON N.V.
ONIDOL
Oxeno
Oxiteno
Penoles
Persan
Pilot Chemical Company
PQ Corp.
Procter & Gamble
PZ Cussons
Reckitt Benckiser
Reliance Industries
Ruetgers Corp.
SABIC
Sasol
S.C. Johnson & Son
SEEF Ltd.
Shell Chemical LP
SI Group
Solvay S.A.
Spolana
Stepan Company
Sterling Chemicals, Inc.
Sumitomo
Sunoco
Tamilnadu Petroproducts Ltd.
Tasweeq
Tetra Technologies
Thai Ethoxylates - PTT
TotalFinaElf
Toyota Tsusho
Tufail Chemicals
Unger Fabrikker A.S.
Unilever
Uniqema
United Coconut Chemicals, Inc.
Unocal
Varela
Venoco
Vertellus Specialties, Inc.
Vulcan Chemical
Warwick International Ltd.
WeylChem
Wilmar International
W.R. Grace & Co.
YPF
CHEMICAL MARKET RESEARCH
EXPERTS SINCE 1971
Aiken, South Carolina 29803 USA
Telephone 1 803-226-0350
EmailCAHA_Research@colinhouston.com
Onlinewww.colin-houston.com

Detergent Alkylates - World Markets to 2025

Transcription

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