Enterprise Project Estimation with SEER

The Budget Trap
Enterprise Project Estimation with SEER
by
Galorath Incorporated
Estimation Is Critical To Project
Success
•
“The single most important task of a project:
setting realistic expectations…
Unrealistic expectations based on inaccurate
estimates are the single largest cause of (project)
failure.” Futrell, Shafer and Shafer, “Quality Software Project Management”
Some of the most important
business decisions about a
project are made at the time
of minimum knowledge and
maximum uncertainty.
SEER Can Help
•
Answers Fundamental Estimating Questions:
• How much effort is required to complete an
activity?
• How much calendar time is needed to
complete an activity?
• What is the total cost of an activity?
About Galorath
Galorath’s SEER products are used to parametrically
estimate effort, duration, cost, and to gauge risk
•
A software publisher / research firm
•
Over 30 years in business
•
Hundreds of customers, many Fortune 500
•
Headquartered in El Segundo, CA; office in Andover, U.K. with staff
nationwide in the U.S. and in Europe
•
Professional services organization provides consulting and training
SEER Suite Integration
•
SEER solutions can be used independently or as part
of an integrated suite
•
Output from one SEER solution can be seamlessly
used as an input in another to provide total cost of
ownership of the entire system
•
Dynamic link to allow for changes in the detailed
estimate to be automatically updated in the system
estimate
© 2013 Copyright Galorath Incorporated
7
How SEER Is Used
•
Project estimates: How much will it cost? How long will it
take?
•
Bid preparation: What price should we set?
•
Should-cost: Are we paying a fair price?
•
Project design: Can we optimize by altering parameters?
•
Planning: How much staff should we allocate?
•
Portfolio analysis: What’s the cost/benefit of this set of
projects?
SEER for “Should Cost”
•
Debbie Wilson of Gartner may have said it best.
“When price negotiations are conducted
with accurate cost models in hand, I
firmly believe that they yield superior
results. That’s because fact-based
discussions support joint problem-solving
and relationship building with key
suppliers far better than just using a
heavier hammer or an alternative
supplier’s hard luck…”
Who Uses SEER?
© 2013 Copyright Galorath Incorporated
11
Users, Beneficiaries and Uses of
SEER
•
Users
•
• Program/Project Managers
Support to
Procurement
• Cost Estimators
• Should Cost Support
• Production Engineering
• Aid to Negotiation
• Design Engineering
• Make and Buy Plans
• Industrial Engineering
• Offset Agreements
• Integrated Product Teams
•
Design / Production
•
Cost Reduction
• Trade Studies
• Value Analysis
• What “if”
• Production Targets
• Manufacturing Process
Alternatives
• Supplier Management
• Material Alternatives
• Budget / capacity
Planning
Galorath
Founded
SEER-H
Released
SEER-MFG
Airbus UK
IBM
O&S
for
Released.
MFG Detailed Partnership
SEER-H. Composites & Integ. w/
Plug-in
Metallics
Rational
Architechture SEER API
Released
Rose
Introduced Introduced
Galorath
ISO
Certified
SEER-MFG
and SEERAero Merged, SEER-MFG
Machining
ITAR
Standards
Restricions
Updated
lifted
1979 1988 1991 1994 1995 1996 1999 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
SEER-SEM
Released
SEER-IC
Released
Monte
Carlo Risk
RF Device
Estimation
Introduced
Aero for SEERMFG – Navy,
Boeing,
Lockheed,
Northrop, GE,
USAF.
Start
Partnership
with
Microsoft
SEER-MFG
Northrop
Grumman
Electrical
Assembly
and Tube
Model
Standards
Added
SEER-EOS
& System
Level Cost.
Mil/Aero
Data,
USAF, &
MDA
SEER-IT
Released.
SEER
Enterprise
Database.
SEER-MFG
Fabrication
and Finish &
Heat Treat
updates
Cost IQ
Released
Galorath
Partners
with
leading
CAD
provider
2013
SEER-MFG
Labor Rate
Calculator,
GUI Make
Over, Tag,
Lock, Hide
Key SEER Concepts –
Captures What You Know; Simulates What You Don’t








Knowledge based – ready to use out of the box
Risk driven – estimates capture uncertainty
Practical input drivers – intuitive / easy to understand
Comprehensive results – detailed and high level
Enterprise ready – scalable to any organization
Adaptable – utilizes common project patterns
Learning – incorporates your cost history as available
Open - easy to integrate/interface with other systems
Results:
•
•
•
•
•
Accurate project forecasts, schedules & resource plans
Facilitates communication & negotiation with customers
Repeatable & standardized enterprise estimation process
More projects within budget, on time, at specification
Continuous improvement
SEER Enterprise Database
(SEER-DB)
• SQL Server or Oracle
• Allows for collaboration & sharing of estimates
• Can also store estimate modules or component
templates that can be used to build up an estimate
SEER DB
SEER for Software
SEER for IT
SEER for Hardware
SEER for Manufacturing
SEER – Probabilistic Estimates
•
SEER uses a range of
inputs to develop
probability
distributions
•
The result is a
probabilistic analysis
of the estimate
•
SEER accepts multiple
sizing units
•
Monte Carlo
simulation provides
project-level
assessments of risk
Least, likely, and most
inputs provide a range of
cost and schedule outcomes
Confidence (probability)
can be set and displayed
for any estimated item
What can a parametric model tell
you?
Firm Fixed
Price?
Feel lucky?
What is
likely to
happen
Understand the risk before you commit!
17
SEER for Hardware, Electronics & Systems
Total Ownership Costs for Product Development Projects
Life Cycle Costing –
Concept and Assessment Phase
•
•
•
SEER-H Assists with Early ROM Estimates
•
Limited Information
•
Conceptual Design
•
Blue Sky
Trade off Analysis
•
Compare Against Industry Averages
•
Estimate Using Built-in Knowledge Base’s
•
Quick and Easy to Compare Alternatives
Business Support
•
Bid / No-Bid
•
Make / Buy
•
Should Cost
•
Budget Forecasting
•
Risk Analysis
•
Proposal Support
SEER-H Methodology
•
Top Down Parametric Cost Model
• Based on historical cost ranges
• Parametric forecasting
• Estimates at a variety of levels, most common is the
subsystem or box level
•
Subsystem & System Level
Cost
•
•
Systems Engineering,
Design, Manufacture,
Integration, Validation
Based on general
hardware & program
characteristics
•
Weight, materials, complexity
• Specialty models address
technologies
•
FPGA, ASIC, Sensors,
Electronics
SEER for Electro-Optical Sensors
SEER-EOS
SEER-EOS Model
•
SEER EOS Is NOT a weight based estimating
model. Instead, it uses Key Technical/ Performance
parameters (KTPPs) to estimate each technology.
These parameters are judged by subject matter
experts to be important drivers of cost.
•
The KTPPs are supplemented with many of the
standard SEER-H heritage, team, and
programmatic parameters, such as, but not limited
to: New Design, Design Complexity, Developer
Capability & Experience, Production Experience,
Production Quantity, etc.
© 2013 Copyright Galorath Incorporated
24
Project Sources of the Data
•
Data was used from all of the following projects:
For Aircraft/ Helicopter/ UAV:
For Spacecraft:
– Tornado
– Clementine
– TTSR
– F-15, F-16 Eagle, Falcon
– FUSE
– SIM
– RAH-66 Comanche
– IRTS
– NGST
– ARH- 70 ARAPAHO
– Landsat
– MH-60R/S Jayhawk
– EKV
– GPS III
[Avionics]
– FA-18 Hornet
– SBIRS
– F-14 Tomcat
– BSTS
– Predator
– AVHR
– Reapor
– DMSP
– Global Hawk
– TIROS
– LANTIRN
– NPOESS
– ASHF
[Avionics]
– AEHF
For Missile:
– AGM 139xxx
© 2013 Copyright Galorath Incorporated
– AGM-130xxx
25
Historical Data Sources
Data came from the following mission categories:
•
Visible Star Tracker (Starer, 0.3-1.6 microns)
•
Tactical Theater Detection (Scanner, 0.5-20 microns)
•
Acquire & Track Incoming Warheads (Starer, 0.3-12.5 microns)
•
Hostile Satellite/Mission Detection (Starer, 0.3-1 micron)
•
Missile Surveillance (Starer, 0.3-12.5 microns)
•
Remote Sensing (Starer, Lightening Detection, 0.3-1 micron)
•
Remote Sensing (Scanner, Photometric Terrestrial Imaging, 0.2-12.5 microns)
•
Astronomy (Large Segmented Optical Telescope, EOS Instruments, 0.2-30 microns)
•
Astronomy (Starer, Interferometry, 0.4-0.9 microns)
•
Astronomy (Spectroscopy & Imaging, 0.09-0.3 microns)
•
Astronomy (Starer, Imaging, 1.4-5 microns)
•
Astronomy (Starer, Imaging, 30-100 microns)
•
Earth Sensor (Starer, 14-16 microns)
•
Reconnaissance/Surveillance/Targeting (Starer, .5-10 microns)
•
Reconnaissance and Surveillance/Targeting (Scanner, .5-10 microns)
•
Reconnaissance and Surveillance/Targeting (Starer, .5-5 microns)
•
Reconnaissance and Surveillance/Targeting (Scanner, .5-5 microns)
•
Laser Designator (Diode Pumped Laser, ND: Yag)
•
Missile Guidance (.5- 5 microns)
•
AEHF
•
GPS 2R/ 3
•
NIR Spec/ Camera
•
JAMI
•
Iridium
•
Gravity Probe B
•
MTS-1
•
PTSS
•
MODIS
© 2013 Copyright Galorath Incorporated
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Electro-Optical System
Calibration
Target
Scanner/
Pointer
Telescope
Optics
Detector
Electronics
Cooler
Transmit
Data
Ground
Station
© 2013 Copyright Galorath Incorporated
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Inventory of what’s included in
SEER-EOS
•
It encompasses 47 EOS component types/processes
• 8 types of Optical Devices
• 16 types of Detectors
• 8 types of Coolers
• 5 types of Mechanisms
• 4 types of Calibrators
• 4 types of Integration and Test processes
• 2 types of LASERs
© 2013 Copyright Galorath Incorporated
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Detector
Calibration
Target
Scanner/
Pointer
Telescope
Optics
Detector
Electronics
Cooler
Transmit
Data
Ground
Station
A Detector is a device, generally located at the focal plane
of an optical device, that converts impinging radiant
energy into electrical signals. Detectors at the focal plane
are also called focal plane arrays.
•
•
•
•
•
•
Linear or Area Silicon CCD
Linear Silicon Detector
Ge:Ga or Si:Ga Photoconductor
Linear or Area InSb
Linear Gallium Nitride
Linear or Area HgCdTe
© 2013 Copyright Galorath Incorporated
•
Multi-Anode Micro Channel
(MAMA)
•
•
•
•
Linear or Area HgCdTe APD
Linear or Area InGaAs
Area Bicolor HgCdTe
Area Microbolometer
29
KTPP’s for Two Detector
Technologies
© 2013 Copyright Galorath Incorporated
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Sensors used in Focal Plane Arrays
•
•
•
Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC)
Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA)
Monolithic Microwave Integrated Circuit (MMIC)
Can be estimated with SEER-IC
© 2013 Copyright Galorath Incorporated
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SEER for Integrated Circuits
SEER-IC
SEER-IC Model
• Core SEER-H estimates the cost of printed circuit
board development and production, approximates cost
of Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASIC) and
Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGA)
• SEER-H covers some IC functionality but with limitations
• The SEER-IC estimates the added costs of
development and production of custom ASICs and
FPGA development costs.
© 2013 Copyright Galorath Incorporated
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Application Specific
Integrated Circuit (ASIC)
• SEER-IC offers the selection of the ASIC design
methods:
Type
Standard
Cell
Mixed Signal
MMIC
Description
Most common ASIC design method through the use of
libraries which are used to create a physical
representation of logical design
Characterized by an ASIC that contains both analog
circuits and digital circuits on a single die
Monolithic Microwave Integrated Circuit, operates at
microwave frequencies, SEER-IC reflects group III-V
semiconductor technologies like GaAs and GaN, work
predominately within the analog technologies
© 2013 Copyright Galorath Incorporated
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Field Programmable Gate
Array (FPGA)
Material
Description
HP Logic with
Trans
High performance logic FPGAs with transceivers that support high speed I/O
functionality.
HP Signal
Processing with
Trans
High performance logic FPGAs with transceivers designed for Digital Signal
Processing (DSP) that supports high speed I/O functionality.
HP Embedded
Systems with
Trans
High performance logic FPGAs with transceivers designed for embedded
systems processing with high speed I/O functionality.
HP Logic
High performance logic FPGAs.
HP Signal
Processing
High performance logic FPGAs designed for Digital Signal Processing (DSP).
HP Embedded
Systems
High performance logic FPGAs designed for embedded systems.
Basic High
Density
Standard high density FPGA.
Basic Logic
Standard logic FPGA.
Basic I/O
Basic I/O FPGA.
Basic I/O with
Added Memory
Basic I/O FPGA with expanded memory.
© 2013 Copyright Galorath Incorporated
35
SEER Cost IQ
From Requirements to Cost
Cost IQ - Obtaining Cost Directly
From Limited Requirements
A Case Based Reasoning system that can transform high
level requirements and specifications into a cost modeling
workup within a sophisticated cost estimating model.
This approach can provide even concept planners
with an advanced understanding of the cost of
potential designs.
Cost IQ Case-Based Reasoning
Cost IQ uses case-based reasoning (CBR) by solving
new problems based on the solutions of similar past
problems.
SEER for Manufacturing
Estimating the Costs of Composites and Beyond
SEER-MFG Methodology
•
Bottom–Up Parametric Cost Model
• Based on Standards
• Parametric Forecasting
• Estimates At the Process Level
•
Unit Cost & Total Cost
•
•
Labor, Material, Tooling
Based on Part and
Process Parameters
•
Part Size, Process Types
and Steps, Lot Size, Etc.
SEER-MFG Software
•
Enables Design Team to make smart
decisions through all program phases:
• Reduces Downstream Manufacturing Costs
• Real Time Cost Feedback
• Systematic, Repeatable, Estimating Process
•
Extensive Process Knowledge Base for
“Should Cost” Analysis
SEER-MFG Processes
Machining
Conventional & High Speed
Milling
Turning
Grinding
EDMing
Reaming
Sawing
Gear Hobbing
Coring
Surface Skim
Pocket Milling
Angled Faces
Composites
Shaping
Boring
Screw Machining
Drilling
Tapping
Broaching
Deburring
Stringer Run Out
Profile (Edge)
End Mill Slot
T Sections
Mold/Cast/Forge
Injection Molding
Thermoform Molding
Die Casting
Forging
Rotational Molding
Sand Casting
Investment Casting
Powdered Metals
Finishing
Vacuum Metalizing
Air Gun Spraying
Brush Painting
Chromate/Phosphate
Dip Coating
E-Coat
Buff/Polish
Electrostatic Coating - Fluid
Electrostatic Coating - Solid
Electroplating
Heat Treatment
Additional Items
Thermal Spraying
Shot Peening
Abrasive Blasting
Vapor Blasting
Masking
Hand/Power Tools
Solvent Cleaning
Printed Circuit Boards (PCB’s)
Board Fabrication
PCB Assembly/Solder
Electrical Assembly
Cable
Harness
Layup
Filament Winding
Pultrusion
Composite Spray
Detailed Composites
Composite Processes
Hand Layup
Automated Tape Layup
Resin Transfer Molding
Liquid Resin Infusion
Resin Film Infusion
Hot Ply Forming
Consumables
Materials
Curing
Autoclave Oven
Part Finish
Trim
NDT
Mechanical Assembly
Fasteners
Riveting/Staking
Gas Flame Welding
Arc, MIG, TIG Welding
Electron Beam Welding
Spot Welding
Brazing
Adhesive Bonding
Tube, Fab, Weld & Processing
Cutting, Bending, End Prep, Pressure Test, Weld,
Finish
Rollup
Aggregate Subordinate Work Elements
Use for
Organizing operations into routing steps
Separating alternative methods for comparison
Purchased Parts
Allows you to incorporate purchased parts into your
assemblies, "Bill of Materials" items.
Additional Items
Model any operation in terms of
Setup Time-Rework Time-Direct Time
Material Cost -Inspection Time-Tooling Cost
Available in all models
NDT
Part Mark & Package
Setup & Run Labor Rates
User Defines
Tooling Inputs
Inspection & Rework
Custom Calculation Templates
Fabrication
Shears-Brakes- Punches-CNC Turret-Laser Cut
Gas Flame Cut-Plasma Arc Cut - Dedicated Tool & Die
Progressive Die -Spin Forming
Tube Bending- Plate Roll Bending
Aerostructure Plug-in Processes
Composites
Hand Layup
Filament Winding
Tow Placement
P4A
Braiding
3D Weave
Assembly
Fasten
Fit-up
Drill
E-Beam Assembly
Paste Bond
3D Reinforcement
Automated Assembly
Cure & Infusion
Autoclave
RTM
VARTM
E-Beam Fabrication
Fabrication
SPF/DB
Sheet Metal
Trim
Tooling
Source of the data – SEER-MFG –
Aerostructures Plug-in
The Composites Affordability Initiative (CAI)
CAICAT Member Companies
T
Air Force Research
Labs
E
A
M
Navy Science
& Technology
SEER for Software
Total Ownership Costs for Software Development Projects
SEER for Software
•
•
•
SEER provides a systematic
approach for estimating the
resources and scheduling
that software development
requires, and an unparalleled
capability for trade-off and
risk analysis.
to estimate and analyze the
development and
maintenance of software
projects…
with respect to
•
Effort
•
Cost
•
Schedule
•
Staffing
•
Risk (probability of success)
•
Reliability (defects)
PEOPLE
TECHNOLOGY
PROCESS
Flexible Work Breakdown Structure
From First Order ROM to Details
• Decompose a project to
the level of granularity
necessary/available
•
Each element can have:
• Different KB and
parameter settings
• Different sizing
• Have a unique staff
loading/profile
•
Record/retain alternative
solutions in the WBS
•
Special wbs element to
characterize COTS
Parameter Settings:
Knowledge Bases
•
SEER-SEM uses knowledge
bases to derive initial
parameter settings based on
industry experience
•
Choose knowledge bases for:
•
Platform (Avionics, Missile
and Unmanned Airborne,
etc.)
•
Application
(Command/Control, Device
Driver, Flight Systems, etc.)
•
Acquisition Method (New,
Integration, Modification,
etc.)
•
Development Method
(Agile, Evolutionary,
Incremental, ISO ADA,
Waterfall, etc.)
•
Development Standard
(DO-178B Levels A-E, etc.)
Size and Select a Few Knowledge
Bases & SEER Builds the Estimate
Based on Thousands of Industry
Experiences
Sophisticated Schedule Modeling:
Trading Effort and Schedule
For a given Size, Complexity and Technology
Work Expands
To Fill Time
(Work expands due to lack
of pressure)
Software Solution
Effort Months
Minimum Time
To Complete
(Effort increases to
reduce schedule)
Reasonable Solution
Range
Optimal Effort for staff
(Lower Effort for
Longer Schedule)
Calendar Time
Effort Increase
due to Longer Schedule
Estimates Are Validated
Against Data (Yours and/or Other)
SEER Integration with Microsoft
Project
• Automatically builds a detailed plan
• Creates organizationally specific life cycle templates
SEER Integration With Oracle
Primavera P6
Estimate the project
Lay out the project
© 2012 Copyright Galorath Incorporated
Update estimate based
on progress
Update the project with
new estimate to complete
52
SEER Project Monitor & Control
•
Adds Performance Measurement
(Earned Value) methods to SEERSEM
•
Accepts progress & expenditure
inputs
•
Provides cost, schedule, and time
variances
•
Provides cost, schedule, and time
indices
•
Performance-based cost &
schedule Estimate at Completion
•
Displays health and status
indicators
53
SEER for IT
Total Ownership Costs for Information Technology
Projects
Applications of SEER-IT
•
•
•
Bid and Proposal
Portfolio Planning
Internal Project Planning
© 2013 Copyright Galorath Incorporated
55
The Challenge of IT Estimation
•
IT requirements and priorities are ever changing and
driven by many factors
• Business
• Technology
• Legislation/Regulation
•
IT projects and initiatives cover a broad spectrum of
activities
• severs, training, establishing processes, deploying
software, etc.
•
IT managers need estimates that are comparable, yet
robust
•
Estimation processes are often subjective and not
repeatable
Picking the Best Set of Projects to
Undertake
Costs
• Project
• Project
• Project
• Project
A
B
X
Y
IT shops may
need to
evaluate
hundreds of
projects to
determine
priorities
Benefits
• Project
• Project
• Project
• Project
A
B
X
Y
57
Comprehensive Estimation
With SEER-IT
•
Life Cycle Phases
Analysis
•
Procurement
Construction
Operations
Test
Training
Distribution
Labor/Role
Manager
•
Design
Project
Analyst
Architect
Developer
Admin
Application
Development
Service
Desk
Technician
Test/QA
Tech Writer
Trainer
Functional Areas
Software/
Database
Services
End User
Services
Infrastructure
Services
Training
Facilities
Documents
Purchased
Items/Other
SEER-IT in a Competitive
Environment
•
Suppliers/Vendors
• Quickly react to RFQ/RFI
• Develop estimates to support proposals
• Evaluate different design/build approaches
•
Purchasers of IT Services
• Evaluate proposals
• Should cost evaluation
© 2013 Copyright Galorath Incorporated
59
Estimation Best Practices
Simple Steps to Improve Your Estimates
Have you been here?!
Estimation Best Practices
•
•
•
•
•
Decide The Purpose And Goal Of Your Estimate(s)
•
•
Re-estimate When Project Changes Or More Is Known
•
•
Estimate Schedule As Well As Effort (Cost)
Have A Documented, Repeatable Estimation Process
Interview Stakeholders
Use “Least, Likely And Most” to Describe Key Inputs
Estimate The Solution Range And Consciously Choose
the Confidence Point For The Plan – 50% or ?
Convert Expert Spreadsheets Into A Common
Language And Clearly Define Terms
Tie The Estimate To The Project Plan
Estimation Best Practices - 2
•
•
Track Progress vs. Estimate Throughout The Life Cycle
•
Evaluate Total Ownership Cost; Development +
Ongoing Maintenance and Support
•
Have Clear Definitions: What does “complete” mean?
Tracking Defects (Both Discovery And Removal)
Improves Cost, Schedule, And Reliability Outcomes
• What activities are included or excluded? (Development
only or total ownership; help desk support, etc.)
• Which labor categories are included or excluded in the
estimate? (Are managers included? Help desk staff?)
•
Capture Completed Actuals During Post Mortem and
Learn From Your History
Annual Review – “Estimating vs.
Budgeting”
Risk, Probabilities & Uncertainty
© 2009 Copyright Galorath Incorporated
65
Contact:
info@galorath.com
www.galorath.com