NADA Commercial Truck Guide Industry Update

Transcription

NADA Commercial Truck Guide
Industry Update
July 2015

Retail pricing dipped mildly
Price declines limited to certain models

Wholesale pricing stronger this month
Age mix of trucks sold returns to trend

Medium duty market mixed
Cabovers drop, conventionals strengthen
NADA Used Car Guide and its logo are registered trademarks of National Automobile Dealers Association,
used under license by J.D. Power & Associates.
Commercial Truck Guidelines | July 2015
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Commercial Truck Market Trends ............................................................................................... 2
ATD/NADA Official Commercial Truck Guide Value Trends ........................................................ 9
At NADA Used Car Guide ............................................................................................................. 10
COMMERCIAL TRUCK MARKET TRENDS
Market Summary
Retail and wholesale pricing for sleeper tractors trended downwards in May, running
slightly behind last year. Incoming supply is the main factor behind mild price
relaxation. A competitive comparison tracks model vs. model pricing performance.
Medium duty conventionals continue their recovery, while cabovers faltered this
month.
Sleeper Tractors – Retail
Trucks that are 3 ‒ 5 years old took a moderate dip in May, as the supply of incoming
trades continues to increase and the traditional summer slowdown starts to take shape.
Through the first five months of 2015, 3 and 4 year-old sleeper tractors performed
moderately worse than the same-period last year, while 5 year-old sleepers continued
to perform notably better. Specifically :
- 2013’s averaged $83,113 through May 2015
― a $3,819 (or 4.4%) decrease over 2012’s
Average Retail Price by Model Year - Sleeper Tractors
$140,000
this time last year.
$120,000
2011’s this time last year.
― a $5,115 (or 8.6%) increase over 2010’s
this time last year.
$100,000
Average Retail Price
― a $2,449 (or 3.2%) decrease vs.
2007
2008
$80,000
2009
2010
$60,000
2011
2012
$40,000
2013
2014
$20,000
$0
See “Average Retail Price by Model Year” graph for
Source: ATD/NADA
Period
detail.
NADA Used Car Guide | 8400 Westpark Drive | McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | nada.com/b2b
© 2015 J.D. Power & Associates
2
[ COMMERCIAL TRUCK MARKET TRENDS continued ]
New truck deliveries continue to accelerate, providing
the market with additional supply. There was also an
Percentage of Retail Sleeper Market Comprised of 3-5 Year-Old Trucks
Overlaid With New Truck Sales
80%
increased volume of International ProStars sold in
year’s counterparts because they feature SCR
emissions technology, unlike 2010 models.
In May, 3 ‒ 5 year-old units comprised 56% of our
20,000
60%
50%
15,000
40%
10,000
30%
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Wholesale)
20%
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Retail)
10%
total sleeper database, down from 60% in April and
Looking at the market overall, the average used
sleeper tractor retailed in May was 74 months old,
5,000
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Sales)
0%
0
57% last May. See “Percentage of Sleeper Market
Comprised of 3-5 Year-Old Trucks” graph for detail.
Period
Source: ATD/NADA
Average Retail Price and Mileage:
All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles
Price
Mileage
$65,000
-month, this truck was 2 months newer, had 29,646
$60,000
(or 6.2%) more miles, and brought $4,233 (or 6.7%)
$55,000
less money. Year-over-year, this average sleeper was
$50,000
490,000
$45,000
460,000
Retail Price and Mileage” graph for detail.
550,000
520,000
$40,000
430,000
$35,000
$30,000
400,000
New truck deliveries should level out in the second
half of the year, so trade-in activity is probably at or
Period
Source: ATD/NADA
near its peak. There has been some fluctuation in
pricing month-over-month, with some models bucking the average trend. Given this
behavior, we continue to consider the market generally at a high plateau, with market
forces placing mild downward pressure on pricing.
Sleeper Tractors – Wholesale
The wholesale channel returned to trend in May, after an April marked by an unusually
old mix of trucks sold. Trucks sold wholesale performed a bit better than their retail
counterparts, with less notable price decreases. In May, 53% of trucks sold fell into the 3
‒ 5 year-old bracket.
Through the first five months of 2015, 3 year-old sleeper tractors are performing
3
Mileage
brought $175 (or 0.3%) more money. See “Average
Price
had 510,810 miles, and brought $59,092. Month-over
1 month newer, had 3,930 (or 0.8%) more miles, and
New Truck Sales
year-old trucks, they will continue to outperform last
70%
Percentage of Retail Sleeper Market
May, particularly of the 2013 model year. As for 5
25,000
Commercial Truck Guidelines | June 2015
similarly to same-period last year, 4 year-old trucks
Average Wholesale Price by Model Year - Sleeper Tractors
are performing mildly worse, and 5 year-old trucks
2 per. Mov. Avg. (2012)
$70,000
Average Wholesale Price
2012’s this time last year.
2 per. Mov. Avg. (2009)
2 per. Mov. Avg. (2011)
$80,000
Specifically:
― a $121 (or 0.2%) increase over
2 per. Mov. Avg. (2008)
2 per. Mov. Avg. (2010)
$90,000
are performing substantially worse (with a caveat).
2 per. Mov. Avg. (2007)
$60,000
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
― a $1,331 (or 2.3%) decrease vs.
$0
Jan-14 Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
2011’s this time last year .
Sep Oct
Period
Nov
Dec Jan-15 Feb
Mar
Apr
May
― a $13,510 (or 28.3%) decrease vs. 2010’s this time last year .
See “Average Wholesale Price by Model Year” graph for detail.
The age mix of trucks sold in May returned to trend, with 2013’s present in fewer
numbers. Trucks with a 2012 model year were the volume leader this month, with the
Volvo 670 and 780 disproportionately represented. The ProStar was once again the
most common seller of the 2011 model year. This last factor is the main reason for the
weak year-over-year performance of 5 year-old trucks.
As for the market overall, the average sleeper tractor wholesale in May was 82 months
old, had 590,190 miles, and brought $38,661. Monthover-month, this truck was 8 months newer, had
42,187 (or 6.7%) fewer miles, and brought $3,010 (or
Average Wholesale Price and Mileage:
All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles
$50,000
was 9 months older, had 24,417 (or 4.3%) more miles,
$45,000
and brought $6,173 (13.8%) less money.
$40,000
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Price)
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Mileage)
$35,000
$30,000
predict this month’s retail market. If that behavior
$25,000
holds true next month, retail pricing should remain
$20,000
stable. See “Average Wholesale Price and Mileage”
$15,000
graph for detail.
Source: ATD/NADA
760,000
730,000
700,000
670,000
640,000
610,000
580,000
550,000
520,000
490,000
460,000
430,000
400,000
Period
© 2015 NADA Used Car Guide
4
Mileage
It looks like last month’s wholesale market did indeed
Price
8.4%) more money. Year-over-year, this average truck
Competitive Comparison: 3-5 Year-Old Sleeper Tractors (Retail)
Continuing to dominate the retail landscape, 3 ‒ 5 year-old trucks make up 50% of our
total retail database in 2015 so far (compared to 39% for same-period 2014). Pricing
continues to stabilize as volume increases. Despite the increased supply, year-over-year
depreciation has narrowed to near-parity with 2014. Through the first 5 months of 2015,
3 ‒ 5 year-old sleepers averaged $384 (or 0.5%) less than same-period 2014.
Results for individual models were mixed this month, with the Kenworth T660, Peterbilt
386, and Volvo 630/670 ticking upwards, and the Freightliner Cascadia, International
ProStar, and Volvo 730/780 ticking downwards.
The T660’s upward movement brought it essentially equal to the market-leading
730/780 this month. Marketplace performance of PACCAR MX-powered trucks has
strengthened over time, and that engine is now running closely if not equal to the
Cummins ISX, all else being equal.
The 630/670’s performance was unexpectedly strong, given that this model is a highvolume seller. Spec level of trucks sold this month
didn’t vary much from the average, so it appears the
Average Retail Price of Selected 3-5 Year-Old Sleeper Tractors
Adjusted for Mileage
$100,000
model’s performance is a natural market result.
$90,000
$80,000
The Cascadia remains the highest-volume truck in this
focused level of spec. Despite these two factors, the
Cascadia performs close to the marketplace leader on
average. Unlike some OEM offerings, Freightliner’s
powertrain options have been well-regarded through
the recent rounds of emissions changes, which has
supported the Cascadia’s marketplace performance.
$70,000
Average Retail Price
cohort. Also, the model typically features a fleet-
386
$60,000
387/587
$50,000
Cascadia
ProStar (ISX+MF)
$40,000
T660
$30,000
VNL 630/670
VNL 730/780
$20,000
Market Average
$10,000
$0
Period
Source: ATD/NADA
The ProStar dipped this month, primarily due to a
substantial increase in the number of trucks sold. Navistar’s Diamond Renewed initiative
is gaining awareness in the marketplace, and we expect to see an increased volume of
these trucks in our database in the near future.
Overall, monthly fluctuations by model are a result of specification and volume
variations, and do not generally indicate changes in competitive position unless the
5
trend continues for a sustained period. As such, this month may be considered
essentially flat overall.
See the “Average Retail Price of Selected 3-5 Year-Old Sleeper Tractors” graph for detail.
Medium Duty—Class 4 and 6 Conventionals
Volume and pricing data for Class 4 and Class 6 swapped places in May, with Class 4
dipping down in both measures and Class 6 heading up.
Starting with Class 4 trucks, the average 4 ‒ 7 year-old
unit wholesaled in May had 115,355 miles and
Average Wholesale Selling Price: 4-7 Year-Old Conventionals by GVW Class
$35,000
9,173 (or 8.6%) more miles and brought $568 (or
$30,000
2.7%) less money. Year-over-year, this average truck
had 23,761 (or 25.9%) more miles and brought $744
(or 3.7%) more money.
The average 4 ‒ 7 year-old Class 6 conventional
wholesaled in May had 118,843 miles and brought
$30,663. Month-over-month, this truck had 8,503 (or
6.7%) fewer miles and brought $2,134 (or 7.5%) more
Average Wholesale Selling Price
brought $20,731. Month-over-month, this truck had
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Class 4 Price)
$5,000
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Class 6 Price)
$0
Jan-14 Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Period
Nov
Dec Jan-15 Feb
Mar
Apr
Source: ATD/NADA
money. Year-over-year, this average truck had 51,966
(or 30.4%) fewer miles and brought $7,613 (or 33.0%) more money. See “Average
Wholesale Selling Price: 4 ‒ 7 Year-Old Conventionals” graph for detail.
With volume back up to a normal level, May is less of an anomaly than April. Pricing was
stable for Class 4’s and upward for Class 6. The improvement in medium duty
conventional segments continues in step with the increasingly positive consumer-based
areas of the economy.
Medium Duty—Class 3 and 4 Cabovers
The upward trend in pricing for this group reversed in May, with a higher volume of
trucks bringing lower pricing on average. The price range of trucks reported sold was
wider than usual, suggesting there was variation in specification and condition that may
have gone unreported by our data sources.
6
May
In May, the average 4 ‒ 7 year-old cabover sold
wholesale for $13,846 and had 128,516 miles. Pricing
Average Wholesale Selling Price: 4-7 Year-Old Class 3-4 Cabovers
$25,000
over-month, and an even more substantial $7,490 (or
35.1%) year-over-year. Mileage was 43,541 (or 51.2%)
higher month-over-month, and 49,999 (or 63.7%)
higher year-over-year. See “Average Wholesale
Selling Price ― 4 ‒ 7 Year-Old Cabovers” graph for
Average Wholesale Selling Price
was down by a whopping $5,271 (or 27.6%) month$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
detail.
$0
Jan-14 Feb
May’s results are certainly out of line with the recent
market trend, so we suspect there was more to the
Mar
Apr May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Period
Nov
Dec Jan-15 Feb
Mar
Apr May
Source: ATD/NADA
data than we are able to discern. Volume in 2015 continues to run well ahead of 2014,
and despite May’s pricing results, trucks sold this year are bringing 8% more than the
same period last year. We consider May an anomaly, and expect results more in line
with the trend in June.
Sales Volume
Average Number of Used Trucks Sold per Rooftop (NADA Reporting Dealers)
Retail
7
0.3 truck higher than April, and 0.2 behind May 2014.
6
This year continues to lag behind 2014, with the first
5 months of 2015 running 0.7 truck behind the same
period last year. Severe weather in January and
February is the main factor behind the year-over-year
difference, but the spring of 2014 was undoubtedly
stronger than the spring of 2015. In general,
continued high pricing and positive economic data
keep us from reading too much into the change. See
Average Number of Used Trucks Sold
May’s retail sales per rooftop came in at 5.8 , which is
Wholesale
5
4
3
2
1
0
Jan-14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Period
Nov
Dec Jan-15
Feb
Mar
Apr
Source: ATD/NADA
“Average Number of Used Trucks Sold per Rooftop”
graph for detail.
Wholesale volume edged up in May for a fairly strong late spring result. We collected
3,633 auction and dealer-to-dealer sales records in May, compared to 3,495 in April and
3,149 in May of 2014. Year-to-date, 2015 is running 789 trucks (or 4.6%) ahead of last
7
May
year. Increased trades are responsible for the
Total Wholesale Sales Reported to NADA
increased volume. See “Total Wholesale Sales
6,000
Reported to NADA” graph for detail.
5,000
positive territory after a weak April. June’s retail
market should look healthy, with the supply level
placing mild downward pressure on pricing.
Be sure to read our blog twice each week for realtime updates on this and other market data, at
2011 Total:
29,282
2012 Total:
34,275
2013 Total:
39,179
2014 Total:
40,273
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Jan-10
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan-11
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan-12
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan-13
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan-14
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan-15
Mar
May
May’s wholesale results moved back into more
Total Wholesale Sales
Outlook
2010 Total:
42,320
Period
Source: ATD/NADA and AuctionNet
www.nada.com/b2b.
8
[ ATD/NADA OFFICIAL COMMERCIAL TRUCK GUIDE® TRENDS ]
Monthly Change in ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value
July 2015 v. June 2015
NADA Segment
2009MY
2010MY
2011MY
2012MY
2013MY*
Commercial Van
-3.3%
-1.4%
-2.1%
-1.4%
-1.3%
Extended Hood
0.0%
0.0%
-1.7%
-1.1%
-4.0%
Highway Aerodynamic
-1.1%
-3.5%
-3.1%
-4.6%
-4.0%
Highway Traditional
0.0%
0.0%
-1.8%
-1.6%
-4.0%
Local/Delivery Daycab
-0.8%
-2.4%
-1.7%
-3.1%
-3.7%
Medium Duty Cabover
0.6%
-7.1%
-1.9%
-1.7%
-2.3%
Medium Duty Conventional
-0.3%
-0.4%
0.7%
-0.1%
-1.4%
Vocational/Construction
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-1.6%
0.0%
*Value movement can be influenced by newly valued vehicles.
Annual Change in ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value
July, 2014 v. 2015
NADA Segment
Commercial Van
Extended Hood
Highway Aerodynamic
Highway Traditional
Medium Duty Cabover
5YR
13.9%
5.0%
-2.2%
4.3%
0.6%
5.1%
14.6%
10.2%
4YR
15.1%
2.6%
1.3%
6.3%
6.6%
8.1%
-7.4%
3.0%
3YR
17.0%
-6.6%
-6.2%
-2.5%
-4.4%
-6.1%
0.4%
-1.3%
2YR
7.2%
4.8%
1.1%
4.7%
23.2%
1.9%
-0.1%
-6.3%
Segment
Change
11.1%
1.5%
-3.1%
1.5%
11.3%
0.6%
2.2%
10.7%
*Calculations are based on vehicle age, i.e. values for 1-year-old vehicles in CY2015 are compared against values for
1-year-old vehicles in CY2014.
YTD Change in ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value
NADA Segment
2009MY
2010MY
2011MY
2012MY
2013MY*
YTD
Segment
Commercial Van
0.9%
4.1%
3.7%
-10.0%
10.6%
0.8%
Extended Hood
-3.7%
-5.6%
-7.2%
-11.3%
-12.4%
-7.0%
Highway Aerodynamic
-4.7%
-10.5%
-14.5%
-16.9%
-13.8%
-12.8%
Highway Traditional
-4.4%
-8.1%
-7.3%
-12.2%
-12.3%
-9.6%
-4.0%
-7.8%
-7.4%
-11.6%
-12.3%
-6.9%
Medium Duty Cabover
-6.5%
-20.8%
-11.2%
-13.9%
N/A
-11.3%
-2.9%
-5.5%
-10.6%
-9.5%
-10.6%
-7.0%
-9.7%
-14.2%
-10.0%
-7.6%
-8.9%
-7.1%
9
AT NADA USED CAR GUIDE
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

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About NADA Used Car Guide
Since 1933, NADA Used Car Guide has earned its reputation as the leading provider of vehicle valuation products, services and
information to businesses throughout the United States and worldwide. NADA’s team collects and analyzes over one million
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solutions offer automotive/truck, finance, insurance and government professionals, the timely information and reliable solutions
they need to make better business decisions. Visit nada.com/b2b to learn more about solutions for your business and nada.com/
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Accounting, Legal,
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800.248.6232 x7275
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and Customer Service
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800.248.6232 x4707
Dan.Ruddy@nada.com
Credit Unions, Fleet,
Lease, Rental Industry,
Government
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800.248.6232 x4710
Doug.Ott@nada.com
Automotive Dealers,
Auctions, Insurance
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800.248.6232 x7115
Jim.Dodd@nada.com
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Manager
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800.248.6232 x7136
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10
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NADA’s market intelligence team leverages a database of nearly 200 million transactions and more than
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content that is both useful and usable to dealers, financial institutions, businesses and consumers.
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develops customized forecasting solutions for clients, the market intelligence team is responsible for publishing white
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beyond what is happening in the industry to confidently answer why it is happening and how it will impact the market
in the future.
Senior Director, Vehicle Analysis & Analytics
Jonathan Banks
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Jonathan.Banks@nada.com
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Chris Visser
800.248.6232 x4731
Chris.Visser@nada.com
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aim to inform industry stakeholders on
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movement to better maximize today’s
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Commercial Vehicle Blog
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Perspective takes a deep dive into a
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expect in the future.
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Blog analyzes market data, lends insight
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11

NADA Commercial Truck Guide Industry Update

Transcription

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