Kaihan Krippendorff www.kaihan.net
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Kaihan Krippendorff www.kaihan.net
Kaihan Krippendorff www.kaihan.net www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Go home Wait Cross www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 2 The Fourth Option® www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. The Pattern Competition Grows Rigid Outthinker Emerges See a “Fourth Option” www.kaihan.net Ignore and laugh Outthinker wins 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.” Mohandas Gandhi www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Business outtinkers Richard Branson Oprah Winfrey Dhirubhai Ambani Bill Gates Sōichirō Honda Charles Revson www.kaihan.net Elizabeth Arden Henry Ford 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Social outthinkers Martin Luther King, Jr. Rosa Parks Mother Teresa Mahatma Gandhi Mohammad Yunus Nelson Mandela Margaret Thatcher www.kaihan.net Benjamin Franklin 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Mohammad Yunus www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Ratan Tata www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Betsy Johnson www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Thomas Edison www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Ray Kroc www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. The New Outthinkers Mark Zuckerberg CEO, Facebook Meg Whitman CEO, HP Elon Musk CEO, Tesla Motors Arianna Huffington CEO, Huffington Post Cory Booker Mayor, Newark, NJ, USA Marissa Mayer CEO, Yahoo Wayne Gattinella CEO, WebMD Robert Keane Sabrina Herrera Cofounder, Genomma Lab CEO, Vistaprint Susan Lyne CEO, Gilt Groupe Larry Page CEO, Google Mark Vadon Founder, Blue Nile www.kaihan.net Josh Linkner Founder, ePrize Tom Adams CEO, Rosetta Stone Oprah Winfrey CEO, Harpo Productions 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Some Victims www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Fortune 500 Survival is Falling Source: “What Does Fortune 500 Turnover Mean?” Dane Stangler and Sam Arbesman Ewing Marion; Kauffman Foundation, June 2012 www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Most Admired Companies Replaced 2000 1. GE 2. Microsoft 3. Dell 4. Cisco 5. Wal-Mart 2005 1. Dell 2. GE 3. Starbucks* 4. Wal-Mart 5. Southwest A.* 2010 1. Apple* 2. Google* 3. Berkshire H.* 4. J&J* 5. Amazon* Source: Fortune Magazine, Most Admired Companies www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. URBN Revenue History Urban Outfitters Annuals Sales $ billions 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E Source: Value Line www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. URBN Results Growth Profitability 5Y Ave.* Revenue CAGR (%) 5Y Ave.* EBITD Margin (%) URBN ANF** Industry 16 5 21 12 12 14 * 5 years average as of November 2011 ** Abercrombie & Fitch, closest peer by market capitalization Source: Reuters www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. College students only Used clothing Artists not managers in charge Manager freedom … www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 8 Ps Position Product Price Promotion Processes Place Physical experience People www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Urban Outfitters Position Product Price Promotion Processes Place Physical experience People www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. The “Outthinker” score Company (score) Tesla Motors (6) Rosetta Stone (7) Pos. Pos. Price Prod. Promo. Proc. Place Phys. People Price Proc. Promo. Place Phys. People 2 Promo. Place Phys. People Dell (8) Pos. Price Prod. Proc. Genomma Lab (8) Prod. Walmart (7) Price Proc. Price Proc. Promo. Place Phys. People Urban Outfitters(9) Pos. Prod. Promo. Place Phys. People Pos. Prod. Price Proc. Pos. Prod. Price Proc. Pos. Prod. Promo. Place Phys. People Vistaprint (10) Pos. Promo. Place Phys. People www.kaihan.net Southwest (8) Price Proc. Prod. Promo. Place Phys. People 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Outthinkers Grow Faster More Profitably Outthink Score v. Performance for Company Pairs 10 Relative Performance* 8 6 y = 0.8878x + 0.3836 R² = 0.4396 4 2 0 ‐2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 ‐4 ‐6 Relative Outthinker Score * Performance score = 5 year average revenue CAGR X 5 year average EBITDA margin www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Where do you have “fourth options”? 0 – No difference Position Product Price Promotion Processes Place Physical experience People www.kaihan.net 1 – Up to 4 year difference 2 – 5+ year difference 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. The Choice is Yours www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Five Habits Mental time‐ travel The detailed envisioning of a possible future Attacking the interconnected system Looking at the interconnections and interdepen‐ dence of the whole rather than the parts Frame‐shifting Fluid changing of perspectives on the problem www.kaihan.net Disruptive mind‐set Perception Shaping Preferring strategies that the competition will not respond effectively to, that the system will not resist Shaping other’s mental maps through strategic use of language 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Five Steps Address 5 habits Mental time‐ travel Attacking the inter‐ connected system Frame‐shifting www.kaihan.net Disruptive mind‐set Perception shaping 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. How Do Great Strategists See “Fourth Options? Alexandra Kosteniuk www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. They Overcome a Mental Limitation Consciousness Phonetic loop Visuo‐special sketchpad Episodic buffer Source: Baddeley model of short term working memory www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. More Patterns – More Options Relative number of patterns chess players recognize Grand master Master www.kaihan.net Expert 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Narratives Are Culturally Embedded Europe & North America – Fairy tales Japan – Koan India – Puranas China – 36 stratagems www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Identifying Outthinkers Revenue growth (CAGR) (EBITDA) Profit margin Value creation (TRS) www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Core Research www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. The Outthinker Playbook #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #7 Force two‐front battle #33 Be good #32 Create something out of nothing www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. “He who is at first to battle is at ease; he who is late to battle is at labor.” Sun Tzu www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 22 Move Early to the Next Battleground www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 22 Move Early to the Next Battleground “I just think a future in which anyone can shoot stuff into space is more exciting than one which only the government can.” Elon Musk, founder, Space-X (2003 interview) www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 22 Move Early to the Next Battleground www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 22 Move Early to the Next Battleground www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 22 Move Early to the Next Battleground US Farmland Value per Acre www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 22 Move Early to the Next Battleground Identify and move early to the next battleground. Where is the next battleground? - Technological trends? - Social shifts? - Geographies? - Buying patterns? - Needs? www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. The Outthinker Playbook #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #7 Force two‐front battle #33 Be good #32 Create something out of nothing www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 34 Coordinate the Uncoordinated www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 34 Coordinate the Uncoordinated www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 34 Coordinate the Uncoordinated www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 34 Coordinate the Uncoordinated www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 34 Coordinate the Uncoordinated www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 34 Coordinate the Uncoordinated www.kaihan.net 53 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 34 Coordinate the Uncoordinated Combine and coordinate independent elements within your environment to orchestrate much greater power. Who would we want to coordinate? - Customers - Experts - Employees - Real estate - Regulators - Competitors - Driveways -… www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. The Outthinker Playbook #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #7 Force two‐front battle #33 Be good #32 Create something out of nothing www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 7 Force a Two-Front Battle www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 7 Force a Two-Front Battle Film Animation Co.s Chi Zhao www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 7 Force a Two-Front Battle “There is no physical analog for what Amazon.com is becoming.” - Jeff Bezos Tablet producers Content www.kaihan.net Kindle 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 7 Force a Two-Front Battle “There is no physical analog for what Amazon.com is becoming.” - Jeff Bezos Cloud providers Retail www.kaihan.net Cloud services 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 7 Force a two-front battle Project your unique capability into a new area in such a way that it forces a twofront battle. What is your unique advantage/ capability? Into what new area could you project this? www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. The Outthinker Playbook #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #7 Force two‐front battle #33 Be good #32 Create something out of nothing www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 33 Be Good Share‐ holders Environment Community Corporation Govern‐ ment / country Employees Customers www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 33 Be Good “These days I think more and more people want to use services from companies that believe in something beyond simply maximizing profits” Mark Zuckerberg, CEO, Facebook Source: Wall Street Journal, “A $10 Billion Stock Sale Would Dwarf Google’s”, February 2, 2012 www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 33 Be Good www.kaihan.net 64 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 33 Be Good www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. The Holstee Manifesto www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 33 Be good What would it look like to be good to the community (or to your competition)? How can you gain strategic power by benefiting key stakeholders that you are not now considering? www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. The Outthinker Playbook #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #7 Force two‐front battle #33 Be good #32 Create something out of nothing www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 32 Create Something Out of Nothing www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 32 Create Something Out of Nothing www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Source: http://peanutbuttereggdirt.com/d/tag/charts/ www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 32 Create Something Out of Nothing www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 32 Create Something Out of Nothing www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 32 Create Something Out of Nothing www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 32 Create Something Out of Nothing www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Create something out of nothing New categories • Apple iPad • Apple iPod • Sports drink (Gatorade) • Energy drink (Red Bull) • … New occasions • Fabrese moment (P & G) • Engagement ring (DeBeers) • Tequila moment (spirits companies) • Valentines Day (Hallmark) • White day (Japanese sweet co.s) • … New users • Calloway Golf • … New regulations • Cancer insurance (AFLAC) • … www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. 32 Create something out of nothing Add a new piece the board (while others are playing with the pieces on the board). What can you create? - New categories? - New occasions or needs? - New customers? - New suppliers? - New distributors? - New regulations? www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. The Outthinker Playbook #22 Move early to the next battleground Where is the next battleground? #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated Who could you coordinate #7 Force two‐front battle How can you project into a new sector? #33 Be good How can you be good? #32 Create something out of nothing What can you create? www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Step 4 – Analyze High Crazy ideas Winning moves Game plan Impact 1. … • How far would this get me toward my goal? 2. … • How long before the competition responds? 3. … Wastes of time Tactics 4. … 5. … Low Difficult Easy • Can we do this quickly? • Is this inexpensive? • Do we have the capability? www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Personal Example www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Mohammad Yunus www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Ratan Tata www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Betsy Johnson www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Thomas Edison www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Ray Kroc www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. kk@kaihan.net www.kaihan.net @kaihan • Blog • Newsletter • Tools • Videos • Webinars • Seminars www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Backup Charts www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Eras of Corporate Creation Source: “What Does Fortune 500 Turnover Mean?” Dane Stangler and Sam Arbesman Ewing Marion; Kauffman Foundation, June 2012 www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Step 4 – Analyze High 1. Plot each idea Impact 2. Pick two crazy ideas and brainstorm how to make them feasible 3. Pick 3‐7 ideas (your “Game Plan”) Low Difficult Easy Ease www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Ingvar Kamprad www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. Paradigm Shifts © Kaihan Krippendorff, 2011 www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved. A New Game Begins www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
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