Alok Industries Limited
Transcription
Alok Industries Limited
ICRA EQUITY RESEARCH SERVICE ALOK INDUSTRIES LIMITED Industry: Textiles September 19, 2011 ICRA Online Grading Matrix Valuation Assessment Alok Industries Limited (Alok), promoted by the Jiwrajka family, is a vertically integrated leading textile manufacturer having presence across the value chain from cotton spinning, polyester yarn, apparel fabrics, home textiles and garments manufacturing to retailing of garments and accessories. The company has 16 manufacturing plants located at Silvasa, Vapi and Navi Mumbai. Besides textile operations in India, Alok holds 100% stake in ‘Mileta a.s.’, an integrated textile company with established distribution network in Czech Republic. On completion of the recently approved merger with ‘Grabal Alok Impex Limited’, Alok would hold ~90% stake in ‘Grabal Alok (UK) Limited’ - a garments and accessories retailing chain having 219 stores across England, Scotland and Wales. Besides, Alok has also made one time investments into commercial and residential real estate business through its wholly owned subsidiary, ‘Alok Infrastructure Limited’. Although the retail investments of the company may take time to yield results, we expect the company to actively monetize its investments in real estate business to improve the capital structure and the return indicators over the medium term. 78.8 Market Cap (Rs. crore) 1445.6 52-Week High (Rs.) 35.0 52-Week Low (Rs.) 15.6 Free Float (%) 70.6% Beta 1.2 6 Month Avg Daily Volumes (Rs Cr) 22.6 Source: Bloomberg, as on 16th September, 2011 Alok Industries: Current Valuations 8.00 6.9 5.9 6.00 4.00 3.4 4.9 4.1 3.3 1.9 2.00 1.3 FY11a FY12e FY13e Price/Earnings FY14e EV/EBITDA Shareholding Pattern (30th June, 2011) Promoters 29% NonInstitutions 38% FIIs 21% DIIs 12% Share Price Movement (18 months) 175% 150% 125% 100% Alok Industries Ltd Sep-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Jun-11 Apr-11 50% May-11 75% Mar-11 FY14E 13,888 22.0% 7.7% 13.66 38.1% 1.34 0.29 23.8% 16.8% 4.08 18.4 Shares Outstanding (crore) Jan-11 FY13E 11,203 22.9% 7.0% 9.89 78.1% 1.86 0.36 20.9% 14.0% 4.85 Alok In Current Market Price (Rs.) Feb-11 Table 1: Alok’s key financials indicators (Consolidated) FY10A FY11A FY12E Operating Income (Rs. crore) 4,423 6,612 9,038 EBITDA Margin (%) 28.7% 27.4% 23.2% 3.1% 6.6% 4.8% PAT Margin (%) EPS (Rs.) 1.75 5.39 5.55 EPS Growth (%) 86.0% 208.1% 3.1% P/E (x) 10.50 3.41 3.30 P/BV (x) 0.53 0.52 0.43 RoE 5.9% 15.7% 14.1% RoCE 9.5% 10.3% 11.1% EV/EBITDA 7.71 6.88 5.93 Source: Company, ICRA Online estimates Bloomberg Code Dec-10 Grading Sensitivities The key grading sensitivities in our view are: 1) Sustainability of the global economic revival remains to be seen 2) Vulnerability to regulatory policies and foreign exchange rates 3) Steep decline in cotton prices could impact margins in near term due to high cost inventories 4) Competitive pressures from other low cost destinations could worsen incase of relapse in global demand outlook 5) Consolidation of UK retail business to moderate margins and weaken capital structure in near term 6) Delays in monetization of non-core assets could impact the capital structure and return indicators of the company. Key Stock Statistics Oct-10 Grading Positives The key grading positives in our view are: 1) Well diversified client base and strong domestic business 2) Aggressive capacity expansions and strong domestic consumption demand could result in healthy volume growth going forward 3) Efforts to move up the value chain could further improve realizations 4) Vertically integrated operations leads to operational efficiencies; focus on improving capacity utilisation and asset turnover to help maintain profitability margins 5) Potential exit from the non-core businesses (Real Estate & Retail) to improve capital structure and return indicators over the medium term A B C D E 5 4 3 2 1 Fundamental Grading of ‘3/5’ indicates “Good Fundamentals” Valuation Grading of ‘A’ indicates “Significantly Undervalued” on a relative basis Nov-10 ICRA Online has assigned the Fundamental Grade ‘3’ and the Valuation Grade ‘A’ to Alok Industries Limited (Alok). The Fundamental Grade “3” assigned to Alok implies that the company has “good fundamentals” relative to other listed securities in India. The Valuation Grade ‘A’ assigned to Alok implies that the company is “significantly undervalued” on a relative basis (as on the date of the grading assigned). Sep-10 Fundamental and Valuation Grades Fundamental Assessment Initiating Coverage Nifty index Source: Bloomberg, ICRA Online Estimates 1 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited INVESTMENT SUMMARY Diversified and integrated nature of operations with strong domestic business Alok Industries : Revenue Break-up (FY11) Garments 3% Spinning & Trading 9% Polyester 26% Home Textiles 15% Apparel Fabric 47% Alok Industries : Revenue Break-up (FY11) Exports Sales % 35% Domestic Sales % 65% Source: Company; ICRA Online Estimates While the near term outlook for the domestic textile industry remains uncertain due to renewed fears of global economic slowdown, volatility in cotton prices and exchange rate fluctuations; we expect the large diversified players like Alok to be better placed due to integrated operations and relatively strong domestic business. Alok’s textile operations are vertically integrated with in-house spinning, weaving, knitting, designing, processing and garmenting units making it one of the few large scale organised players in India. For its apparel fabrics and home textiles segment, backward integration into manufacturing of cotton yarn (spinning) and in-house processing of grey fabric for fashion wear / technical textiles has enabled the company to garner higher operating margins. Apart from presence across the cotton value chain, the company also has presence in synthetic fibre through its polyester texturising capacity, backwardly integration into Partially Oriented Yarn (POY). Further, large scale of operations enables procurement efficiency through bulk raw material purchases and diversified client base enables stable demand and better realizations even during uncertain times. Capacity expansions and strong domestic consumption demand could result in healthy revenue growth; Improving capacity utilisation / asset turnover and focus on value-added products to maintain profitability Alok is currently undergoing capacity expansions accoss its spinning, apparel fabric and home textiles segments. Besides, we expect the company to aggressively expand its polyester yarn capacity from ~200,000 MTPA in FY11 to ~500,000 MTPA in FY12e and ~900,000 MTPA in FY14e; inorder to leverage upon the rapidly increasing manmade fibre demand due to limited land availability for cultivation of natural fibres, high dependence on agro-climatic conditions and higher domestic spending in the price sensitive rural markets. As a result, polyester division will emerge as the largest revenue contributor for Alok with revenues increasing from 25% of Alok’s overall sales in FY11 to 42% of sales in FY14e. Overall, aggressive capacity expansions across business segments (more so in polyester division) along with continuing strong domestic consumption demand are expected to result in a healthy 28% CAGR in the consolidated revenues for the company over the FY11-FY14e period. 2 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited Exhibit 1: Installed Capacities Units '000 MT ('000 Spindles) Rotors FY09a 33.3 252.1 936 FY10a 58.5 300.1 3,792 FY11a 69.0 343.8 3,792 FY12e 80.0 411.8 5,680 FY13e 80.0 411.8 5,680 FY14e 80.0 411.8 5,680 Apparel Fabrics Processing Woven Weaving Knits Mn. Mtrs Mn. Mtrs '000 MT 105.0 70.0 18.2 105.0 93.0 18.2 105.0 93.0 18.2 126.0 170.0 25.0 126.0 170.0 25.0 126.0 170.0 25.0 Home Textiles Processing Weaving Terry Towels Mn. Mtrs Mn. Mtrs '000 MT 82.5 47.0 - 82.5 68.0 6.7 82.5 68.0 6.7 105.0 92.0 13.4 105.0 92.0 13.4 105.0 92.0 13.4 Polyester Yarn Drawn Texturised yarn (DTY) Fully Drawn Yarn (FDY) Partially Oriented Yarn (POY) '000 MT '000 MT '000 MT 77.0 182.5 114.0 182.5 114.0 70.0 200.0 170.0 70.0 500.0 170.0 70.0 700.0 170.0 70.0 900.0 Garments Mn. Pcs. 15.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 Spinning Source: Company; ICRA Online Estimates Although the company has industry leading operating margins, the company plans to further improve capacity utilizations and optimise product portfolio by focusing on higher value-added products such as yarn-dyed fabrics and technical textiles. Yarn-dyed fabrics are used in fashionable shirting / womenswear and command better prices than its current range of products, while technical textiles owing to their specialised nature carry higher margins than the conventional textiles. Besides, competition is relatively moderate in the technical textiles segment as there are few established domestic players in this import dependent segment. In polyester yarn segment, Alok’s fresh capacity additions are aimed at higher value-added yarns such as cationic, dope-dyed, bright and black-dyed yarns. Overall, despite the steep correction in raw material prices, we expect the company to maintain ~34% EBITDA margins in apparel fabrics, ~28% in home textiles and ~18% polyester segments. With increasing contributions from polyester business, overall EBITDA margins are expected to decline by ~4% over the next three years, although the return indicators are expected to improve considerably due to higher asset turnover and RoCEs in polyester segment. Potential exit from the non-core businesses (Real Estate & Retail) could improve capital structure; return indicators to get futher fillip from with increasing contribution from polyester segment Alok had entered the real estate business and invested ~Rs. 1,500 crore in FY07 to take advantage of the real estate boom witnessed during 2004-2008. These investments however did not yield desired results and the management is now pursuing monetisation of these investments and exit the real estate business to improve the capital structure of the company going forward. Besides, the retail ventures (‘H&A’ & ‘Store Twenty One’) too being B2C businesses have different and complex business models from Alok’s core spinning, weaving, processing based B2B businesses. These investments, although require significant management time and energy, currently contribute little to the overall profitability. Hence, the management may look at exiting the retail ventures too at an appropriate time, inorder to improve the financial profile and focus on the core profitable businesses of apparel fabrics, home textiles and polyester yarn. Besides, the large capital expenditures incurred across segments over past five years are expected to stabilize and improve the return indicators for the company going forward. Again, the overall return indicators are expected to improve with increasing contribution from polyester segment, as the latter is less working capital intensive and higher asset turnover (~2.5 times) in comparison to cotton based businesses (~0.5 times). 3 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited Competition remains intense across segments; international competition could worsen incase of renewed economic slowdown In the apparel fabric segment, Alok is present in mid to premium segment where price competition pressures remain high owing to fragmented nature of industry and consumer price consciousness in the domestic markets. In the home textiles segment, Alok is mainly present in the exports markets (>95% revenues) where it continues to face stiff competition from Chinese manufacturers with higher economies of scale and from manufacturers based out of other low cost destinations like Pakistan. In the polyester yarn segment, domestically the company faces competition from larger and fully integrated players like Reliance Industries; while internationally Alok faces stiff competition from chinese manufacturers that account for close to 70% of global production capacity. While increasing domestic demand, rising finance cost and reducing labour cost arbitrage in China are likely to aid long-term prospects for leading Indian manufacturers like Alok; faultering global economic growth and weakening discretionary spendings could intensify competitive pressures due to lower capacity utilizations over the near term. Exhibit 2: Intense competitive pressures across segments Key Segments Apparel Fabrics Key Competitors Competitors from the organized segment include Arvind Mills, Vardhman Textiles, Nahar Industrial Enterprises and Bombay Rayon Fashions Abhishek Industries, Indo Count Industries, Himatsingka Seide, Bombay Dyeing and Welspun India are some of the major Indian players in the bed linen segment. Stiff competition with manufacturers based out of China and Pakistan Competition from established domestic players like Reliance Industries, JBF Industries, Indo Rama Synthetic, Garden Silk Mills, Futura Polyesters and Century Enka Competition from Chinese polyester yarn manufacturers that dominate the global polyester market with ~ 70% market share Home Textiles Polyester Yarn Source: Company; ICRA Online Estimates Besides, the merger of Grabal Alok Impex Ltd and thereby consolidation of Grabal Alok UK (retail business) could moderate margins and weaken capital structure at the consolidated level Exhibit 3: Estimated Merger Impact FY12e Alok (Ex Grabal Alok UK) Revenues (Rs Cr) EBITDA (Rs Cr) EBITDA Margin (%) 8,012 2,057 25.7% Grabal Alok UK Revenues (Rs Cr) EBITDA (Rs Cr) EBITDA Margin (%) 1,026 41 4.0% Alok (Consolidated) Revenues (Rs Cr) EBITDA (Rs Cr) EBITDA Margin (%) 9,038 2,098 23.2% EBITDA Margin Impact -2.5% Source: Company; ICRA Online Estimates Alok’s board of directors have recently approved the proposal for amalgamation of Grabal Alok Impex Limited (GAlok), engaged in manufacturing wide range of embroidered fabrics. GAlok had reported ~Rs. 235 crore revenues with ~21% EBITDA margins in FY11. Besides, since GAlok holds 48.7% in Grabal Alok (UK) Limited (GAUKL), Alok’s effective shareholding in this UK based retail chain will increase from ~41.3% to ~90%, making it a subsidiary of Alok Industries. We expect the consolidatation of GAUKL to adversely impact the financials of Alok industries in near term, as the retail chain has recently achieved EBITDA breakeven and is yet to breakeven at net profit levels. Considering the weak outlook for retail sales in UK, we have assumed ~9% revenue growth and ~4% EBITDA margins for GAUKL in FY12e. Overall, the merger is expected to reduce the consolidated EBITDA margins by ~2.5% and weaken the capital structure by additional debt burden of ~Rs. 600 crore, in the near term. 4 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited Valuation seems quite attractive even after factoring the near term headwinds Despite the near term headwinds faced by the textile industry, Alok’s current valuation multiples (~3.3 times FY12 earnings, ~0.43 times FY12 book value) seems quite attractive considering Alok’s integrated and diversified business model with lower dependence on textile exports. The valuation multiples are are expected to further moderate rapidly from the FY12e levels due to strong earnings growth over the next three years contributed by large capacity additions and improvement in the capital structure through exit from non-core businesses. Overall, we expect the company to report a robust 28% CAGR revenue growth and 36% CAGR EPS growth over the FY11a-FY14e period, aided by robust capacity expansions and healthy domestic consumuption demand going forward. Hence, we assign a valuation grade of “A” to Alok on a grading scale of ‘A’ to ‘E’, which indicates that the company is “significantly undervalued” on a relative basis. Exhibit 4: Relative Valuations Vs Equity Indices: Alok ICRA Estimates Industries Ltd NIFTY INDEX CNX 500 INDEX CNX MIDCAP INDEX FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E Price/Earnings 3.30 1.86 13.98 11.88 13.27 11.09 11.31 9.39 EV/EBITDA 5.93 4.85 9.48 8.22 9.35 7.92 9.70 7.91 Price /Sales 0.16 0.13 1.58 1.43 1.30 1.16 0.82 0.74 Price /Book Value 0.43 0.36 2.32 2.03 2.09 1.81 1.51 1.31 Price/Cash Flow 1.36 0.99 10.26 8.85 9.53 8.00 7.01 5.76 Source: Bloomberg, ICRA Online Estimates * Bloomberg Consensus Estimates as on 16th September, 2011 Exhibit 5: Relative Valuations Vs Industry Peers: Alok ICRA Estimates Industries Ltd S. Kumars Nationwide Ltd JBF Industries Ltd FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E Price/Earnings 3.30 1.86 3.61 2.43 2.68 EV/EBITDA 5.93 4.85 3.94 3.32 3.24 Price /Sales 0.16 0.13 0.23 0.19 Price /Book Value 0.43 0.36 0.44 Price/Cash Flow 1.36 0.99 2.69 Source: Bloomberg, ICRA Online Estimates Provogue (India) Ltd Vardhman Textiles Ltd FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E 2.21 7.96 6.85 3.49 3.38 2.88 10.87 9.39 4.57 4.77 0.13 0.12 0.57 0.51 0.28 0.29 0.36 0.57 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.45 0.41 NA 1.85 1.62 5.69 4.89 1.89 1.90 * Bloomberg Consensus Estimates as on 16th September, 2011 5 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited OPERATING PROFILE Snapshot: One of the largest integrated textile companies in India with presence across the value chain from cotton spinning to manufacturing polyester yarn, apparel fabrics, home textiles and ready-made garments. The company has 16 manufacturing plants located at Silvasa, Vapi and Navi Mumbai. Besides, Alok holds 100% stake in Mileta a.s., an integrated textile company with established distribution network in Czech Republic and will hold ~90% stake in Grabal Alok UK Ltd., a leading garments and accessories retailing chain having 219 stores across England, Scotland and Wales. Alok also made onetime investments into commercial and residential real estate business through its wholly owned subsidiary, Alok Infrastructure Limited. Alok’s textile operations comprise of five divisions that span the entire textile value chain. The company is vertically integrated with in-house spinning, weaving, processing and garmenting units making it one of the few large scale integrated and organised players in India. Besides, the company, through its subsidiaries and joint ventures have entered into retailing of garments and accessories as well as real estate construction businesses. The table below gives break up of operating revenues and EBITDA margins by business segment on consolidated basis: Exhibit 6: Segment-wise revenues and margins Revenues (Rs Cr) FY08a FY09a FY10a FY11a FY12e FY13e Spinning & Trading 294 111 327 574 402 409 430 Apparel Fabric 895 1,610 1,943 2,967 3,107 3,585 4,008 Home Textiles 389 499 707 986 1,087 1,263 1,442 Polyester 493 619 1,193 1,664 2,592 3,905 5,864 Garments 100 139 141 175 175 191 210 Others 123 136 111 212 1,675 1,849 1,936 2,294 3,113 4,423 6,578 9,038 11,203 13,888 FY14e Total Revenues Contributions (%) FY14e FY08a FY09a FY10a FY11a FY12e FY13e Spinning & Trading 13% 4% 7% 9% 4% 4% 3% Apparel Fabric 39% 52% 44% 45% 34% 32% 29% Home Textiles 17% 16% 16% 15% 12% 11% 10% Polyester 21% 20% 27% 25% 29% 35% 42% Garments 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% Others 5% 4% 3% 3% 19% 17% 14% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% EBITDA Contributions (%) FY08a FY09a FY10a FY11a FY12e FY13e FY14e 5% 1% 3% 4% 2% 2% 1% Apparel Fabric 54% 66% 56% 57% 50% 47% 44% Home Textiles 22% 19% 20% 16% 15% 14% 13% Polyester 16% 13% 18% 17% 22% 27% 33% Garments 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% -1% -2% 0% 4% 9% 9% 7% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Spinning & Trading Others Total Source: Company; ICRA Online Estimates 6 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited Spinning / Cotton Trading Divison Snapshot: Alok’s Cotton Spinning business has lower revenue contribution (~9% in FY11a) as 80-85% cotton yarn manufactured is utilized for captive consumption by the fabric and home textiles divisions of the company. Alok has the largest spinning facility in India at a single location (Silvassa); further capacity expansion planned from 343,840 to 441,840 spindles (58,750 tons) and 3,792 to 5,424 rotors (20,210 tons) in FY12 to support expansions at the in-house weaving and knitting capacities in the fabric and home textiles segment Procurement of raw cotton in bulk and during harvest remains crucial to the division’s overall profitability; steep volatility in cotton prices driven by global demand-supply scenario could squeeze operating margins Cotton Trading business remains opportunistic as it gains from temperory mispricings in the market, however EBIDTA margin remain lower due to the trading nature of business Lower revenue contribution as 80 to 85% of cotton yarn produced is used for captive consumption; EBIDTA margins lowered by cotton trading activity Alok has an in-house spinning unit for cotton yarn, which not only mitigates the risk of reliance on outside supplier but also enhances margins through the value chain. Besides, the division also trades in raw cotton and cotton yarn to leverage upon the managment’s deep understanding of domestic and international demand-supply conditions and gain from temperory mispricings seen the market. In FY11, the spinning and cotton trading division accounted for Rs. 574 crore or ~9% of operating income for the company. Volumes and hence revenue generated by spinning & cotton trading activity increased by ~75% in FY11, primarily on account of low base effect in the previous years and increase in cotton trading activity to encash upon the rise in cotton prices in the open market. Exhibit 7: Spinning & Cotton Trading Division – Key Operating Indicators Product mix Compact yarn, dyed yarn, blended yarn and organic cotton from coarse to fine counts Target segment Primarily captive consumption by fabric and home textiles division (~75 to 80%) 18 to 25% of cotton yarn production is sold to traders, distributors and manufacturing units in the domestic as well as export markets Highlights Largest capacity at a single location in India (Silvassa) Volatility in raw cotton costs due to uncertain demand-supply situation Sustained high prices could result in further substitution by polyester Steep fall could result in company left holding high cost inventories The company does not generate significant revenue from sale of cotton yarn as large part of the produce is utilized for captive consumption. Cotton trading operations of the company are opportunistic, primarily to benefit from spurt in cotton prices and the company remains a very small player in the said segment. Thus competition from other spinning mills and cotton traders is not applicable to the company 44,980 tons ring spun yarn (343,840 spindles) 13,520 tons open-ended yarn (3,792 rotors) Capacity expansion for ring spun yarn to 58,750 tons (411,840 spindles) and open-ended yarn to 22,250 tons (5,680 rotors) at total cost of Rs. 400 crore in a phased manner till FY12. Expansion to be funded through term loans Rs. 315 crore and internal accruals of Rs. 85.0 crore. Expanded capacity too will be used primarily for captive consumption for fabric and home textiles segment Industry Scenario Competition Current Capacity Future plans Source: Company; ICRA Online Research 7 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited Bulk buying during harvest season leads to high inventories risks; however, trading operations gains in case of favourable price movements Alok mitigates the risk of cotton price fluctuations to an extent by purchasing cotton in bulk quantities during the buying season; when the quality, availability and costs are favourable. Alok procures raw cotton from the open market, primarily from states of Gujarat, Maharshtra and Andhra Pradesh; though there are no long-term contracts. It maintains an average nine months inventory of raw cotton primarily for yarn manufacturing resulting in high inventory holding period. In rising cotton price scenario, the company gains as the benefits of low cost inventory may not be completely passed on to the customers; however the situation reverses and margins decline if the raw cotton prices fall steeply in short duration leading to high cost inventories. Capacity expansions to aid growth in spinning reveneus in FY12, Cotton trading revenues and margins are expected to moderate after a strong performance over the last two years Alok is expanding its spinning capacity for manufactring ring-spun yarn to 58,750 tons (411,840 spindles) and openended yarn to 22,250 tons (5,680 rotors) at total cost of Rs. 400 crore in a phased manner till FY12. The expanded capacities too are expected to be used primarily for captive consumption, while open market sales may continue upto the tune of ~10-15% annually. Besides, we expect the growth in cotton trading revenues and overall margins for the division to moderate marginally, after a strong performance over the last two years. Exhibit 8: Spinning & Cotton Trading Division – Key Financial Indicators Key Estimates FY09a FY10a FY11a FY12e FY13e FY14e MT MT 33,300 8,348 58,500 10,259 69,040 10,356 80,000 9,600 80,000 8,000 80,000 8,000 Cotton Yarn Revenues* Growth Rs Cr % 59.1 71.6 21% 101.1 41% 70.3 -30% 61.5 -13% 64.6 5% Trading Revenues Growth Rs Cr % 52.0 255.5 392% 473.2 85% 331.2 -30% 347.8 5% 365.2 5% Total Revenues Growth Rs Cr % 111.1 327.1 194% 574.3 76% 401.6 -30% 409.3 2% 429.8 5% Spinning Capacity Cotton Yarn Sales* Source: Company; ICRA Online Research * Cotton Yarn Sales refers to open market sales post captive consumption 8 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited Fabric Division Snapshot: Key business segment for the company contributing ~45% to revenues and ~57% to EBDITA in FY11 One of the largest and most profitable fabric manufacturer in the country with revenues of ~Rs. 2,967 crore and EBITDA of Rs. 1,080 crore in FY11 Higher value addition through processing of grey fabric, with inputs from in-house designing team, differentiates the company’s fashion wear and technical textile product range; presence in high-end fabric effectively eliminates competition from unorganised market Growth momentum to continue going forward due to the planned increase in annual weaving capacity to 170.0 million meters, knitting capacity to 25,000 MT and processing capacity to 126.0 million meters by FY12 While the dependence on the fabric division is expected to reduce going forward in the wake of large capacity enhancement in the polyester division, it is estimated to remain the largest EBIDTA generating segment for Alok Exhibit 9: Fabric Division – Key Operating Indicators Product mix Target segment Highlights Industry Scenario Competition Current Capacity (p.a.) Future plans (capacity p.a.) Diversified product mix with cotton / cotton blends of yarn-dyed / piece-dyed fabrics in knits / woven for daily wear, fashion wear, industrial or technical textiles Garment converters in India who in turn sell in the domestic as well as export markets Wholesalers, retailers and traders in the domestic market Garmenting companies and large format retailers in export market Institutions/corporate customers for technical textiles One of the largest players in the apparel fabric segment Alok’s largest revenue segment (47% of FY 11 sales) with high EBDITA margin of 36% on account of in-house spinning, designing and processing capacities; increasing share of value added fabric range; diversified and quality conscious customer base India’s fabric production was estimated at 54,966 million sq. meters in 2009, strong growth in recent years as the Indian fabric industry is becoming increasing more competitive globally The current market size for technical textiles in India is estimated at close to Rs. 40,000 crore with demand estimated to grow at 11% CAGR to reach about Rs. 66,000 crore by FY 2013 The unorganized / largely fragmented nature of industry makes estimation of market share difficult Competitors from the organized segment include Arvind Limited, Vardhman Textiles, Nahar Industrial Enterprises and Bombay Rayon Processing Capacity of 105.0 million meters (segregated into three continuous processing lines and one batch processing line) Weaving capacity of 93.0 million meters (808 weaving looms) Knitting capacity of 18,200 tones Yarn Dyeing Capacity of 5,000 tones Processing capacity – 126.0 million meters Weaving capacity – 170.0 million meters Knitting capacity – 25,000 tones Capacity expansion to be completed in FY12 at an estimated cost of Rs. 225.0 crore through external debt (~80%) and internal accruals (~20%) Source: Company; ICRA Online Research 9 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited One of the largest fabric manufacturer in India with high end processing capabilities Alok, one of the largest player in the apparel fabric segment, has presence in yarn-dyed fashion wear fabrics and technical textile fabrics. The company has an in-house weaving capacity of close to 93.0 million meters (to be increased to 170.0 mn meters) per annum and knitting capacity of 18,200 tones (to be increased to 25,000 tonnes) per annum. Entire processing of grey fabric (output from weaving and knitting operations) is carried out at its inhouse facility at Vapi which has an annual processing capacity of 105.0 million meters (to be increased to 126 Mn meters) per annum. The value addition through processing of grey fabric and the company’s in-house designing team are crucial high margin generators and differentiator for the company’s fashion wear and technical textile product range. Besides, Alok has benefited in terms of technology absorption for high-quality yarn-dyed fabrics, which are used for fashionable shirting and high end women’s wear and command premium prices in the market, through its acquisition of Mileta. High competitive pressures due to fragmented nature of industry and price consciousness in the domestic markets; however, presence in value-added fabrics mitigates competition from the unorganised segment In the apparel fabric segment, Alok is present in mid to premium segment where price competition pressures remain high owing to fragmented nature of industry and consumer price consciousness in the domestic markets. Alok competes with organised players like Vardhaman, Arvind, JCT, Nahar Industries and Bombay Rayon. However, presence in value-added fabrics mitigates competition from the unorganised players that mainly cater to the commodity fabric or the economy end of the fabric segment. Current installed weaving and processing capacities of some of the major competitors is given below: Exhibit 10: Fabric Division – Competitve Scenario Company Installed capacity (FY10) Alok Industries Limited Nahar Industrial Enterprises Arvind Limited Vardhman Textiles Limited Bombay Rayon Fashions Actual production (FY10)* Weaving Capcity: 93 million meters (808 weaving looms) Knitting Capacity: 18,200 tonnes Processing Capacity: 105 million meters 192.3 million meters of woven fabric 7,200 tons of knitted fabric 83.5 million meters of grey and processed fabric Weaving Capacity: 34 million meters of woven shirting fabric, 21 million meters of Khakhi fabric, 33 million meters of voiles Knitting Capacity: 10,000 tonnes 29 million meters of woven fabric 38 MT of grey fabric Weaving Capacity: 82 million meters of fabrics (900 looms) Prcessing Capacity: 90 million meters 108 million meters processed fabric 78.2 million meters (large part of capacity was under commissioned in FY10) Weaving capacity: 52.8 million meters (with 453 looms) Processing Capacity: 58.4 million meters Weaving meters Source: Company Websites; ICRA Online Research Capacity: 220 million *Actual production includes production through third party contractors outsourced production) 10 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited Technical textiles to gain focus in wake of increasing demand and potential for higher EBIDTA margin Unlike conventional textile industry, the technical textile industry (market size estimated to reach Rs. 66,000 crore by FY13e) is an import intensive industry with few companies in India having expertise to manufacture speciality fabrics such as fire retardant fabric, water repellent, soil release fabric and high visibility fabric. These are widely used in industrial, aerospace, military, marine, medical, construction, transportation and high technology applications. Alok is in talks with several international players for technology tie-ups and plans to considerably increase exposure to this segment to gain from the lower competitive pressures and garner higher margins from the same. Reputed and diversified customer base helps mitigate client specific risks; strong backward integration helps minimize the impact of yarn price fluctuations The apparel fabric division has a highly diversified and reputed customer base which includes garmenting companies like Shahi Exports and Madura Garments in domestic market (~65-70%), garmenting companies in international market (~15-20%), institutional sales to armed forces and government organisation (~5-7%) and work wear or technical textiles (~5-10%). The company manufactures fabric primarily against orders which helps mitigate the risk of unsold inventory, while the pricing takes into account prevailing market price of raw material (yarn) and foreign currency rate for exports. Besides, strong backward integration with in-house cotton and polyester yarn production helps minimize the impact of any adverse fluctuations in yarn prices. Strong revenue growth expectations on account of healthy domestic demand and capacity augmentation; margins expected to be maintained through migration to high value-added and fashion fabrics The apparel fabric division has witnessed strong growth over the years driven by increase in volumes on the back of healthy demand and capacity augmentation. The segment generates EBDITA margin of close to 36% on account of backward integration into yarn production, high-end processing and increasing presence in the fashion wear and technical fabric. Going forward, the shifting production base to Asian countries like India, along with increasing demand for higher quality fashion apparel and ready-to-wear apparels in India, is likely to benefit established textile majors like Alok. Besides, the focus on technical textiles along with increasing share of yarn-dyed fashion wear fabrics is likely to drive realizations and revenue growth for the company. Operating margins too are estimated to remain strong despite volatile raw material prices as the company, being a large integrated player, benefits from economies of scale and has demonstrated its ability to pass on increase in input costs to its customers. Overall, we expect the division to report ~11% CAGR revenue and 34-35% EBITDA margins over the FY12e-FY14e period. Exhibit 11: Fabric Division – Key Financial Indicators Key Estimates FY09a FY10a FY11a FY12e FY13e FY14e Installed Capacities Processing Woven Weaving Knits Mn Mtrs Mn Mtrs MT 105 70 18,200 105 93 18,200 105 93 18,200 126 170 25,000 126 170 25,000 126 170 25,000 Production Woven fabrics Knitted fabric Mn Mtrs MT 168 6,693 205 6,802 240 9,135 275 12,789 306 16,625 331 19,950 Rs Cr % 1,610 1,943 21% 2,967 53% 3,107 5% 3,585 15% 4,008 12% Total Revenues Growth Source: ICRA Online Research 11 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited Home Textiles Division Snapshot Home Textiles division accounted for ~15% of overall revenues and 16% of EBITDA in FY11; Integrated operations & presence in mid-premium export segment enables high margins (31% EBITDA margin in FY11) Alok is mainly present in the exports markets (>95% revenues) where it continues to face stiff competition from Chinese manufacturers with higher economies of scale and from manufacturers based out of other low cost destinations like Pakistan Presence in the relatively high end home textiles (300 to 500 counts product category) enable higher price realisation and helps mitigate competition from other low cost manufacturing locations and domestic companies Established and reputed multinational clientele results in strong customer profile; periodic pricing resets to protect marings in case increase in input costs Integrated operations with spinning / processing capabilities enables better control over product quality Planned increase in processing capacity to 105.0 million meters and terry towel capacity to 13,400 MT to drive revenue growth going forward Exhibit 12: Home Textiles Division – Key Operating Indicators Product mix Target segment Highlights Industry Scenario Alok produces wide range of bed sheets sets, comforters, blankets, quilts, curtains and terry towels. Bed sheets account for close to 80% of the division’s sale while bed spreads and terry towel account for 10% each Largest Indian player in export of bed sheets (Received various export awards from Government of India) Top five player for terry towels Strong integration with Alok’s spinning division, which supplies close to 80% of its raw material (cotton yarn) requirement and in-house processing unit enabling control over end product quality Home Textiles segment is estimated at around US$ 22 - 27 billion, accounting for 5-6% of the total global textile market India currently the largest supplier of terry towels and bed sheets Spend on home textiles is price sensitive in nature with demand vulnerable to economic slowdowns; however, demand may shift to lower value segment within home textiles Abhishek Industries, Indo Count Industries, Himatsingka Seide, Bombay Dyeing and Welspun India are some of the major Indian players in the bed linen segment. Stiff competition with manufacturers based out of China and Pakistan Bed sheets – 17.5 million pieces Processing - 105.0 million metres Weaving - 68.0 million metres Terry towels - 6,700 tons Capacity expansion for processing of fabric to 105.5 million meters, weaving of fabric to 93.0 million metres and terry towels to 13,400 tons at a cost of Rs. 175.0 crore, to commissioned by FY12. The capacity expansion will be funded through Rs. 140.0 crore external debt & balance through internal accruals Competition Current Capacity Future plans Export to overseas retailers and brands like Walmart, J.C. Penny, Kohl and Target (exports accounting for ~ 95% of overall division’s sales and 45% of total exports of Alok) Domestic retailers and brands Source: Company Websites; ICRA Online Research 12 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited Largest home textiles exporter from India with significant presence in high count bed sheets and terry towels Alok is the largest manufacturer and exporter home textiles from India with Rs. 986 crore in sales in FY11, growing at 36% CAGR over the last three years on account of increase in capacities, diversification in product mix and improved realisation per unit on account of higher value add products. The product mix consists of 80% bed sheets, while 10% is bed spreads and rest are terry towels. Around 10% of terry towel products of Alok are yarn-dyed providing higher margins while the rest is solid or piece dyed. Alok has limited presence in the domestic market mainly consisting of economy segment (less than 300 thread counts) and dominated by large number of unorganised players. The company mainly focuses on export markets (>95% of products are exported) with 300 to 500 thread count products, where competition is moderate and realizations / margins are relatively higher. Stiff competition from other low cost destinations; however, presence in the relatively higher count helps mitigate competition In the home textiles segment, Alok is mainly present in the exports markets (>95% revenues) where it continues to face stiff competition from Chinese manufacturers with higher economies of scale and from manufacturers based out of other low cost destinations like Pakistan. However, presence in the relatively high-end home textiles (300 to 500 counts product category) enable higher price realisation and helps mitigate competition from other low cost manufacturing locations and domestic companies (products from Pakistan are estimated at 8-12 USD/unit FOB value while that from Alok are priced at 15-20 USD/unit). Besides, the shift in procurement strategy of large global retailers from high cost US / European destinations to low cost destinations like India and increasing demand for textile products in China’s domestic market augurs well for the large Indian players like Alok. The installed capacity of certain organised players is given below: Exhibit 13: Home Textiles Division – Competitive Scenario Company Installed Capacity (p.a) Hanung Toys & Textiles Bed Sheets - 6.85 million pieces Himatsingka Seide Bed Sheets - 2.96 million Pieces, Weaving Capacity - 15.7 million metres, Processing Capacity - 20.9 million metres Abhishek Industries Terry Towels -41,500 tons Alok Industries Bed Sheets - 17.5 million pieces, Terry towel - 6,700 tons Weaving capacity – 92.0 million meter and processing capacity – 105.0 million meters Welspun Industries Weaving capacity – 45.0 million metres, Terry Towel - 41,500 tons Source: Company Websites; ICRA Online Research Established and reputed multinational clientele results in strong customer profile; periodic pricing resets to protect marings in case increase in input costs The customer portfolio for the home textiles division includes retail giants like Walmart, Target, Kohl’s and JC Penney in the export market and Pantaloons in the domestic market. The client portfolio for the company is quite diversified, with top four to five customers accounting only 40% of revenues for the division. In terms of geographies North & South American markets comprise ~80% of the total sales, Europe contributing ~15% and domestic customers accounting for balance 5% of the segment’s revenue. Besides, ~95% of products are sold as private labels in these markets and only 5% are sold as branded products. 13 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited The company’s customer base consists primarily of organised retailers in the US and European market, where average spend on and replacement of home textile products is relatively higher than that in the other parts of the world, thus making it a steady business for retailers. This generates steady order book for large integrated companies like Alok who can deliver large quantities of higher value add home textile products at reasonable rates and meeting stiff delivery schedules. Besides, the company has volume-based contracts with its customers where prices are negotiated every three months based on the input (cotton yarn) prices, thus allowing Alok to hedge its raw material risk. Capacity enhancements to drive volume growth going forward; however, realizations and margins remain vulnerable due to significant uncertainities in global demand outlook over the near term Alok is expanding its Terry Towels capacity, a relatively new segment for the company, from 6,700 MT to 13,400 MT in FY12. Besides, the company is increasing its in-house weaving capacity from 68.0 to 92.0 million meters per annum and processing capacity from 82.5 to 105.0 million meters per annum in FY12, inorder to maintain the quality of finished product. While capacity enhancements are expected to result in robust volume growth going forward, we expect the operating margins of the division to remain vulnerable to renewed uncertainities over global demand outlook in the near term. The revenue growth could also be impacted by declining cotton prices and resulting lower realisations. However, we expect the price corrections to be buffered by presence in higher count products and high value addition (i.e. lower raw material costs / realizations) by the division. Besides, the impact on operating margins are expected to be somewhat mitigated by operating efficiencies resulting from higher economies of scale, integrated nature of operations, high-end designing capabilities and diversified client base of the company. Overall, we have assumed the contribution from terry towels to increase to from ~10% in FY11 to ~20% in FY14e and the division to report ~13% CAGR revenue and 28-29% EBITDA margins over the FY12e-FY14e period. Exhibit 14: Home Textiles Division – Key Financial Indicators Key Estimates Installed Capacities Processing Weaving Terry Towels Production Made-ups Made-ups Terry towels Total Revenues Growth FY09a FY10a FY11a FY12e FY13e FY14e Mn. Mtrs Mn. Mtrs MT 82.5 47 0 82.5 68 6700 82.5 68 6700 105 92 13400 105 92 13400 105 92 13400 '000 Sets '000 Pieces MT 4,073 4,948 5,690 6,401 7,041 7,569 2,456 3,737 4,297 4,835 5,318 5,717 - 1,703 2,555 3,704 5,186 7,001 Rs Cr % 499 707 42% 986 39% 1087 10% 1263 16% 1442 14% Source: ICRA Online Research 14 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited Polyester Yarn Division Snapshot Polyester Yarn division is the second highest revenue generating segment, with close to 25% revenue contribution and 17% EBITDA contribution in FY11, the division is expected to become highest revenue contributor by FY14e on the back of large capacity enhancement being undertaken by the company Demand scenario likely to remain robust due to increasing substitution of natural fibres; considerable increase in capacity across sub-segments to meet captive & open market demand to drive volumes growth going forward Strong competition from Chinese manufacturers, large Indian peers & unorganised domestic texturisers; however large scale of operations enables supporting high volumes at competitive prices Relatively moderate EBDITA margins due to commodity nature of business; significant volatility in raw material (MEG & PTA) prices may dampen profitability margins if not hedged or passed through adequately; however RoCE is expected to remain relatively healthy due to lower working capital intensity and capex requirements Exhibit 15: Polyester Yarn Division – Key Operating Indicators Product mix Present mainly in commodity segment; manufactures Partially Oriented Yarn (POY), Fully Drawn Yarn (FDY), Drawn Texturised yarn (DTY) Target segment Domestic power loom weavers, Direct exports Highlights Among top three polyester yarn manufacturing company in India Competition Industry Scenario Competition from established domestic players like Reliance Industries Ltd, JBF Industries Ltd, Garden Silk Mills Ltd, Futura Polyesters Ltd, Indo Rama Synthetic Ltd., Century Enka Competition from Chinese polyester yarn manufacturers that dominate the global polyester market with ~ 70% market share The global production of Polyester fibre grew by 5.3% in CY10, Polyester Filament Yarn recorded strong growth of 5.7% to 19.3 million tons and Polyester Staple Fibre grew by 4.6% to 12.6million Tons. On the other hand, cotton fibre showed a de-growth of 4.8%. Current Capacity* POY : 200,000 tons, FDY : 70,000 tons, DTY : 114,000 tons Future plans Capacity expansion for DTY to 170,000 tons per annum and to 500,000 tons for POY at an estimated cost of ~Rs. 860 crore by FY12e Source: Company; ICRA Online Research *POY - Partially Oriented Yarn; FDY- Fully Drawn Yarn (FDY), DTY - Drawn Texturised yarn; Strong competition from Chinese manufacturers, large Indian peers & unorganised domestic texturisers; however large scale of operations enables supporting high volumes at competitive prices The polyester yarn segment faces competition from larger & fully integrated players like Reliance Industries domestically and stiff competition from chinese manufacturers (that account for close to 70% of global production) internationally. However, Reliance Industries is mainly present in Polyester Staple Fibres (~62% market share) and has lower presence in Polyester Filament Yarn (~29% market share) segment catered by Alok. Besides, increasing domestic demand, rising finance cost and reducing labour cost arbitrage in China are likely to aid long-term growth rates for leading Indian manufacturers like Alok over the medium term. 15 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited Exhibit 16: Polyester Yarn Division – Competitive Scenario: Company Installed Capacity* Reliance Industries Limited Indo Rama Synthetics Limited JBF Industries Garden Silk Mills Limited Alok Industries 800,000 tons 303,600 tons 201,200 tons 230,400 tons 200,000 tons Source: Company Websites; ICRA Online Research Significant volatility in raw material prices may dampen margins if not hedged or passed through adequately Polyester Division - Raw Material Price Trend PTA (US$ per ton) May-11 Jan-11 Mar-11 Nov-10 Sep-10 Jul-10 May-10 Mar-10 Jan-10 Nov-09 Sep-09 Jul-09 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) and Mono Ethylene Glycol (MEG) are the primary raw materials constituting ~50-70% of the total sales value for polyester yarn. Being petrochemical products, prices of PTA and MEG fluctuate in line with fluctuations in crude oil prices in the long term. Domestic refining companies like Reliance and IOC cater to ~75% of Alok’s PTA requirement while the balance is imported. MEG is completely imported by the company. Volatility in raw material prices remain a key challange for the company in view of the commodity nature of the business. MEG (US$ per ton) Source: EmergingTextiles.com Polyester Yarn division is expected to become highest revenue contributor by FY14e on the back of large capacity enhancement being undertaken by the company Alok’s Continuous Polymerisation plant with 200,000 TPA POY capacity became full operational in FY11. We expect the division to further expand aggressively ~500,000 TPA in FY12e and ~900,000 TPA in FY14e; inorder to leverage upon the rapidly increasing artificial fibre demand due to limited land availability for cultivation of natural fibres, high dependence on agro-climatic conditions and higher domestic spending in the price sensitive rural markets. Besides, Alok plans to shift from semi-dull polyester yarn to relatively higher end products like bright black/cationic yarns currently being produced by Reliance Industries, JBF Industries and Indo Rama Synthetics. As a result, we expect the polyester yarn division to report a robust ~52% CAGR revenue growth and emerge as the largest revenue contributor for Alok, with its revenue contribution increasing from 25% of Alok’s overall sales in FY11 to 42% of sales in FY14e. While the EBITDA margins for the division are expected to remain moderate (around ~18%); the division generates higher ROCE on account of relatively lower working capital intensity / capex requirements and higher asset turnover (~2.5 times) in comparison to cotton based businesses (~0.5 times). Exhibit 17: Polyester Yarn Division – Key Financial Indicators Key Estimates FY09a FY10a Installed Capacities DTY FDY POY '000 MT '000 MT '000 MT 77 0 182.5 114 0 182.5 FY11a FY12e FY13e FY14e 114 65.7 200 170 65.7 500 170 65.7 700 170 65.7 900 16 ICRA Equity Research Service Production DTY FDY POY Total Revenues Growth Alok Industries Limited FY09a FY10a FY11a FY12e FY13e FY14e '000 MT '000 MT '000 MT 71 10 104 28 108 16 56 125 36 140 131 43 279 137 49 488 Rs Cr % 619 1193 93% 1664 39% 2592 56% 3905 51% 5864 50% Source: ICRA Online Research Note: DTY - Drawn Texturised yarn; FDY- Fully Drawn Yarn (FDY), POY - Partially Oriented Yarn Garments Division Snapshot Currently low level of activities at Alok’s garmenting division; large part of garmenting activity outsourced Garment division accounted for close to 3% of total operating income and 2% of EBITDA in FY11 Division unlikely to contribute significantly higher revenues due to lower management focus currently Garments currently a small division Garment division of Alok is currently the smallest in terms of revenue and capacities. During FY11 the division recorded sales of Rs. 175 crore, an increase of 24% over the previous year. Exports contributed to the majority share of sales for this division. The garments division increased production capacity to 22 million pieces per annum from 15 million pieces per annum in FY09. The capacity utilisation at present constrained as availability of workers at current factory location of Silvassa is a problem due to transportation issues for workers. Hence, further capacity enhancement (7 million pieces) was done at Daman where there is ample availability of labor which is expected to improve capacity utilisation of the segment in future. Though opportunities are available in workwear segment for this division to grow, Alok has no plans to aggressively expand the garmenting facilities further at present however it is considering outsourcing opportunities especially in Bangladesh, where quality garments can be produced at competitive prices. However, going forward too, the division is expected to remain a minor contributor to Alok’s overall sales. Exhibit 18: Garment Division – Key Financial Indicators Key Estimates FY09a FY10a FY11a FY12e FY13e FY14e Installed Capacities Mn. Pcs. 15.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 Production Mn. Pcs. 4.7 3.7 4.4 5.1 5.9 6.8 Rs Cr % 139 141 175 175 191 210 39% 2% 24% 9% 10% 11% Total Revenues Growth Source: ICRA Online Research 17 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited Real Estate Business Snapshot Foray into real estate in FY07, through separate subsidiaries, to be part of the high growth of this sector Large accumulation of debt on account of projects under implementation, resulting in pressure on capital structure despite equity infusion from promoters and institution investors (though QIPs) Commercial complex (Penninsula Business Park) project nearing completion; Joint venture in the residential real estate segment likely to yield results only in the coming years Succesful exit from real estate segment likely to aid recovery in overall profitability, capital structure and liquidity profile of the company Entry into real estate business to encash the upturn in the real estate industry four years back; looking actively to exit the business after execution and sale of current projects at hand Alok had entered the real estate business and invested ~Rs. 1,500 crore in FY07 to take advantage of the real estate boom witnessed during 2004-2008. The management is aggressively pursuing monetisation of these investments and exit the real estate business to improve the capital structure of the company going forward. Except the residential project at Nahur (Mumbai) which may take around three-four years for completion, the company plans to exit from other real estate ventures by March 2012. Ashford Center - Four floors to be retained for corporate use, remaining four to be sold by March 2012 Alok, through its subsidiary Alok Infrastructure Limited, had purchased Ashford Center (commercial building, 8 floors, 60,000 sq. ft.) at Lower Parel at ~Rs. 125 crore in 2006. Alok intends to retain four floors for corporate. The company has recently sold one floor (7,500 sq. ft) at the rate of Rs. 21,000 per sq. ft. while the other three floors is are expected to be sold at similar rates by March 2012. Peninsula Business Park - Tower ‘B’: Lease agreements to be signed soon, complete sell off expected later The company, through its wholly owned step-down subsidiary Alok Realtors Limited, had invested ~Rs. 1,275 crore in Peninsula Business Park (Tower B, 20 floors, 641,000 sq. ft) in 2006. The site is located at Lower Parel (near Phoenix Mills) in Mumbai and is being developed by Peninsula Lands Limited with civil work carried on Shapoorji Pallonjee Group. The building is located in close proximity to the Lower Parel and Currey Road stations, 5-star hotels like ITC and Four Seasons and other major commercial complexes like Indiabulls, DLF, HDFC Bank House & Ambit RSM. The proposed project is exposed to market risks on account of significant upcoming commercial space in its vicinity. Alok is scouting for potential lessees to rent out the premises and plans to sell the property to real estate funds after the property is completely lease out. The company has recently lease out two floors to an FMCG at a rate Rs. 225 per sq.ft. We have assumed 50% occupany by March 2012, 100% by H1 FY13e and complete sell-off / exit from the venture at ~17,000 Rs/sq. ft. during FY13e in our projections. Land at Silvassa (500 acres) – SEZ plans shelved, to be sold at more than five times cost price Alok had acquired 500 acres of industrial land for at a total cost of Rs. 50 crore (Rs. 10 lakh per acre) at Silvasa in 2006, with the intention of developing Textile SEZ. However, the company has shelved its development plan and intends to sell the same at Rs. 60-70 lakh per acre. The company in advanced talks to sell around 73 acres for a consideration of Rs. 50 crore. We have assumed the remaining land to the monitized in various phases for ~Rs 300 crore by FY14e. 18 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited Ashford Royale Residential Complex : ~1.1 msf to be developed in Nahur by December 2013 The company, through Alok Infrastructure Limited, has entered into 50:50 joint venture for developing a residential complex on a 7 acre plot (CEAT factory) at Nahur1. The plot is being developed by Ashford group into two 42 storey and two 37 storey buildings (total 608 flats) with landscaped garden, club house, gymnasium and swimming pool and a total saleable area of 1.1 mn. Sq.ft.. The civil contract has been awarded to Talati, Panthaki & Associates. The project is estimated to be completed by December 2014. Exhibit 19 : Alok’s Real Estate Businesses Key Projects 1) Ashford Center (100% Subsidiary) Major Updates / Expected monitization 2) Peninsula Business Park Tower B (100% Subsidiary) 3) Land at Silvassa (100% Subsidiary) 4) Ashford Royale (50:50 Joint Venture) Commercial building at Lower Parel : Saleable area 60,000 sq. ft. The company plans to retain ~30,000 sq. ft. for corporate use We expect remaining ~30,000 sq. ft. to be sold off at ~21,000 Rs/sq. ft. during the current fiscal year Commercial building at Lower Parel: 20 floors, Saleable area 641,000 sq. ft. Recently leased out two floors at a rate Rs. 225 per sq.ft.; we expect 50% occupany by March 2012 and 100% by H1 FY13e We have assumed complete sell-off and subsequent exit from the venture at ~17,000 Rs/sq. ft. during FY13e in our projections 500 acres industrial land at Silvassa The company in advanced talks to sell around 73 acres for a consideration of Rs. 50 crore We have assumed the remaining land to the monitized in various phases for ~Rs 300 crore by FY14e. Residential Project: ~1.1 million sq ft to be developed in Nahur (Mumbai) by Dec 2014 We have assumed sales booking in 8,500 – 10,500 Rs/sq. ft. range; Land cost at Rs. 137 crore, construction costs at ~ 4500 Rs / sq. ft. Our assumptions regarding sales bookings and revenue / cost recognitions for the complete project are as follows: FY11a FY12e FY13e FY14e FY15e Total Area Mn Sq Ft 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Market Rate Rs/Sq Ft 8500 9000 9500 10000 10500 Sales Booking (%) % 25% 50.0% 75.0% 100.0% 100.0% Constuction Completion (%) % 25% 50.0% 75.0% 100.0% Sales / Cost Recognition % 13% 38% 75% 100% 0% Revenue Recognition Rs. Crore 127.19 254.38 381.56 254.38 Cost Recognition Rs. Crore 79 158 237 158 Source: Company, ICRA Online Research 1 Nahur is a North Eastern suburb of Mumbai and is located between Mulund and Bhandup. 19 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited UK Retail Business – Grabal Alok UK Snapshot Foray into UK retail market through acquisition of ~90% stake in ‘Grabal Alok UK’ through its subsidiary – ‘Alok Industries International Ltd’ and associate company – ‘Grabal Alok Impex Ltd’ Consolidatation of ‘Grabal Alok UK’ post the proposed merger with ‘Grabal Alok Impex’, likely to adversely impact the financials of Alok industries in near term Rebranding of stores and operational improvements to aid turnaround of the ailing UK retailer; achieved cash breakeven in FY11 and expected to achieve net breakeven in FY13e The management may look to divest it post turnaround, if Alok makes decent returns on the investment With an intention to enter the garment and accessories retail market in the UK, Alok, through its subsidiary acquired ~41.3% equity stake its associate company Grabal Alok Impex, through its subsidiary, acquired close to 48.71% stake in British retailer, Grabal Alok (UK) Limited (GAUKL) in 2007. Recently, Alok’s board has approved the merger of Grabal Alok Impex with Alok, which will make GAUKL a 90% subsidiary of Alok Industries. Rebranding of stores and operational improvement measures to aid turnover of the ailing UK retailer GAUKL has 219 stores across England, Scotland and Wales, where it retails value-for-money and quality fashion for women, men, girls, boys and infants. It also sells accessories like artificial jewellery, shoes and leather bags. After acquiring the company, Alok’s management undertook a re-branding exercise, re-naming the outlets from ‘QS’ to ‘Store Twenty One’. The stores are now being repositioned from being a discount retailer to a value retailer and opportunities for setting up ‘shop-in-shop’ in large format stores are also being looked upon. A series of other measures such as shifting of sourcing to Asian countries, improving quality of merchandise, cost reduction initiatives been initiated to reduce losses and increase operational efficiencies, which has resulted in a cash breakeven in FY11. Operations of the UK company are yet to achieve break even and are likely to require further financial and operation support from Alok. Consolidatation of ‘Grabal Alok UK’ post the proposed merger with ‘Grabal Alok Impex’, likely to adversely impact the financials of Alok in near term. The management considers all real-estate and retail businesses of the company as non-core businesses and may plan to divest the stake in the UK retailer once the operations turn positive and the company makes decent returns on its investment. Domestic Retail Business - Alok H&A Limited The company, through its wholly owned subsidiary Alok H&A Limited, has ventured into retail of garments, home textiles and accessories through exclusive brand outlets (EBOs) and is positioned as an affordable lifestyle brand with presence across 75 cities in 22 different states of India. At the end of March 2011, Alok operated close to 290 H&A stores in India. The stores are operated on asset-light franchisee model, where the company incurs no capital or rental cost. Apart from the standard format stores, which are usually 800 square feet to 1,000 square feet in size, the company is also looking at larger format stores up to 2,500 square feet to accommodate all categories – men’s, ladies, children’s clothes, home furnishings and accessories such as footwear, sun glasses and perfumes. Though Alok is looking to expand store count to 500 by March 2012 using the franchiese model, the retail business is not estimated to account for more than 5% of its overall (consolidated) operating revenues for the company. Besides, the management may look to spun-off the venture into a separate company incase they turn more aggressive on the domestic retail business. 20 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited OTHER SUBSIDIARIES AND ASSOCIATES Grabal Alok Impex Limited - Presence in embroidered products; to be merged with Alok in FY12 Grabal Alok Impex Limited (GAlok) was incorporated in 1993 through technical collaboration with Grabal Albert Grabher GmbH & Co, Austria and is engaged in manufacturing wide range of embroidered fabrics having application in the home textiles, apparel fabrics and garmenting. GAlok one of the largest domestic manufacturers of embroidered fabric with a capacity of 34 billion stitches a year. The company has presence in both international and domestic markets with customers including domestic traders and garment manufacturers, international branded apparel companies and international home textile retailers. GAlok had reported ~Rs. 235 crore revenues with ~21% EBITDA margins in FY11. Besides, the company indirectly holds 48.71% in British retailer, Grabal Alok (UK) Limited (GAUKL). Alok’s board of directors have recently approved the amalgamation of GAlok into Alok though a 1:1 swap ratio. This will result in ~2.6% equity dilution and marginal increase in promoter holding from 29.37% to 29.71% in Alok. GAlok has ~Rs. 600 crore external liabilites on its balance sheet, which consists of bank term loans, working capital loans, FCCBs, Convertible Debentures and redeemable preference shares. Overall, the merger of Grabal Alok Impex Ltd and thereby consolidation of GAUKL is expected to reduce the consolidated EBITDA margins for the company by ~2.5% in FY12e and weaken the capital structure by additional debt burden of ~Rs. 600 crore, in the near term. Mileta a.s –synergies through transfer of advanced yarn dyeing technologies to Alok’s fabric division; Exhibit 20: Mileta a.s – Operating Profile Product mix Shirting fabrics, table linen and bed linen Target segment Exports mainly to Europe, North Africa, the Americas, the Middle East, the Far East and the Asia Pacific regions Key brands Mileta’s brands – Mileta, Erba, Cottonova, Lord Nelson and Wall Street Source: Company, ICRA Online Research Alok holds ~100% stake in Mileta a.s, an integrated textile entity based out of Czech Republic. The acquisition has benefited by way of technology inputs from the Czech entity, especially in value added yarn dyed fabrics. Post the acquisition Alok has been able to make quality yarn-dyed fabrics, which are priced at ~Rs. 130-140 per meter, a significant premium to its earlier realisations, although the same forms less than 10% of its fabric sales currently. Alok also stands to gain access to Mileta’s well-established distribution network in the USA and Europe. Besides, Alok has launched some of the Mileta brands – Erba (for handkerchiefs) and Lord Nelson (for premium shirting) – in the Indian market. Cottonova a home textile brand of Mileta is manufactured in Alok’s home textile plant and being exported. Alok was able to turnaround Mileta’s performance through production efficiencies, optimising headcount and other cost rationalisation efforts in FY10. Thus despite the slowdown in the European markets, Mileta generated cash profits of the company of Euro 0.30mn. (Rs. 1.83 crores) during FY 2010 as against cash loss of Euro 4.17 mn. (Rs. 25.26 crores) during the previous year. 21 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited Indian Textiles Industry Outlook Snapshot Global economic growth outlook weakens, recent rupee depreciation to provide some respite to exporters Steep decline in raw cotton prices could impact industry margins in near term due to high cost inventories However, textile & apparel industry expected to grow healthy ~10-12% over the long term due to favourable demographics domestically and shifting of manufacturing base to lower cost destinations globally Global economic growth outlook weakens, recent rupee depreciation to provide some respite to exporters After a strong recovery in 2009 and relatively healthy growth in 2010, the US GDP growth rate has again started slowing signs of a slowdown. Besides, the gradual unwinding of fiscal stimulus, persistantly high unemployment rate, falling home prices, lower consumer spending and increase in personal savings rate has weakened the medium term economic growth outlook for US. Moreover, budget cuts / austerity plans by eurozone countries to combat sovereign debt crisis and high reconstruction costs post massive earthquake / tsunami in Japan could further impact consumer sentiments and reduce discretionary spends on Textiles & Apparels (T&A) over the medium term. Indian Rupee Vs. USD 54.00 Indian Rupee Vs. Euro 75.00 52.00 70.00 50.00 48.00 65.00 46.00 60.00 44.00 50.00 Indian Rupee Vs. Chinese Yuan 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.45 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 7.80 7.60 7.40 7.20 7.00 6.80 6.60 6.40 6.20 6.00 5.80 Indian Rupee Vs Pakistan Rupee and Bangladesh Taka Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 40.00 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 55.00 42.00 INR / PKR INR / BDT Source: Bloomberg; ICRA Online Estimates On the other hand, the domestic currency has been appreciating steadily over the last 18 months due to relatively stronger domestic growth and interest rate hikes by the reserve bank. While the Indian rupee has appreciated against the currencies of key target markets (like US, Europe), it had also appreciated against competing currencies (Chinese Yuan, Pakistan Rupee and Bangladesh Taka) over the last 18 months, as evident in the graphs above. However, the recent steep rupee depreciation provides some respite and is expected to boost the competitiveness of the Indian Textiles Exports Industry. 22 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited Steep decline in raw cotton prices could impact industry margins due to high cost inventories; regulatory interventions remain key monitorables International Cotton Prices (USD/lb.) Jul-11 May-11 Jan-11 Jul-11 Apr-11 Jan-11 Oct-10 Jul-10 Apr-10 Jan-10 Oct-09 Jul-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 Mar-11 0 0 Nov-10 10,000 20 Sep-10 20,000 40 Jul-10 30,000 60 May-10 40,000 80 Mar-10 50,000 100 Jan-10 60,000 120 Nov-09 70,000 140 Jul-09 160 Sep-09 Domestic Cotton Prices (Sankar -6; Rs/Candy) Source: EmergingTextiles.com; Bloomberg, ICRA Online Estimates As shown in the graphs above, international cotton prices had increased significantly from ~75 USD/lb. in June 2010 to ~135 USD/lb. in May 2011 on account of strong recovery in global demand and supply shortages due to unfavourable climatic conditions in major cotton producing countries like China, Pakistan and United States. In sync with the global trend, domestic raw cotton prices for the Sankar-6 variety had increased from ~30,000 Rs/candy (1 candy = 355 kg) in June 2010 to ~62,000 Rs/candy in March 2011. The Government of India (GoI) had initiated several measures in order to ensure cotton availability for the domestic industry and easing of cotton yarn prices. In April 2010, GoI restricted yarn exports by withdrawing incentives like duty drawback (4.0%) & Duty Entitlement Pass Book Scheme (7.7%). In December 2010, GoI further restricted yarn exports by fixing the quantitative export quota of 72.0 crore kgs for FY11 (~22% higher than actual export volume in FY10) and compressed export window allowing exports only upto 15 January 2011. While there was no export of cotton yarn for over two-and-a-half months, the industry continued to produce yarn using high-cost cotton in anticipation of strong realisations from the global markets after the removal of the export ban in April 2011. Besdies, simultaneous closure of several dyeing units in Tirupur on environmental concerns resulted in a huge pile-up of large unsold cotton yarn stock. Exhibit 21: Policy Level Changes in CY10 April 2010 Export benefits on cotton and cotton yarn withdrawn Aimed at de-incentivizing exports; however, high realisations on account of strong export demand kept exports attractive September 2010 Export of cotton capped at 55 lakh bales for 2010-11 cotton season Export restrictions on Indian cotton pushed up the global cotton prices and in turn yarn realisations December 2010 Export of cotton yarn capped at 72 crore Kg. for 2010-11 No significant impact due to the quantitative cap; export volume was hit due to time line restriction to 15 January 2011 Source: ICRA Research 23 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited As anticipated, GoI lifted restrictions on cotton yarn exports effective 1st April 2011. In addition, it was listed under ‘free list’ category, implying that contracts for cotton yarn exports were required to be registered only with the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) and that shipments could go ahead without verification by the Indian customs. However, overseas customers had started sourcing cotton yarn from alternate global suppliers when the ban was enforced. Hence, post removal of the export ban, cotton and cotton yarn prices in export market have crashed due to significant additional supply on account of accumulated stock and weak global demand scenario. Exhibit 22: Policy level changes in CY2011 April 2011 Export restriction on cotton yarn removed Sudden spurt of supply in the global market amidst demand slowdown led to a crash in cotton yarn prices June 2011 Additional 10 lakh bales of cotton export allowed No significant impact on cotton prices due to sufficient availability of cotton and weak demand July 2011 - DEPB benefits on cotton and cotton yarn restored - Export restriction on cotton removed Export benefit expected to provide relief to spinners; no significant impact on cotton prices Source: ICRA Research The fall in cotton prices was accentuated by robust production estimates for the 2011-12 cotton season (runs from October to September) globally. As per International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), driven by higher prices in the past one year, global cotton production is expected to increase to 26.9m tons in 2011-12 cotton season, an 8% increase over previous year. A total surplus of 1.8m tons is expected in 2011-12, helping global stocks to recover by about 20% to 10.9m tons and boosting the stocks-to-use ratio to 43%, up from 37% in 2010-11. Indian cotton production too is expected to increase to 35 mn bales (1 Indian bale = 165 kg) in 2011-12 cotton season, an 9% increase over previous year, aided by higher acreage, better yields on higher Bt cotton adoption & normal monsoons. We expects the cotton prices to remain near current levels until November / December 2011, as the mills may take time to consume their current stock of cotton. Subsequently, fresh purchases of cotton are likely to be made at more reasonable rates upon arrival of fresh cotton in the market. Overall, we expect the steep fall in cotton prices over the last four months to result in high cost inventories across the industry, the impact of which would have to be partly absorbed by the domestic textile manufacturers considereing the slackening of global demand recently. However, lower cotton prices aurgers well for the medium term demand outlook and operating margins for the domestic textile industry. We expect the demand to improve in the domestic market with the onset of festival season in H2, 2011-12 and in the export markets as well in order to fill the gradually depleting pipeline inventory. Moreover, the recent decision by GoI to reinstate the DEPB benefits on export of cotton yarn and cotton with retrospective effect from 1 April 2011 and 1 October 2010, respectively; and removal of quantitative cap on cotton exports, may arrest the downward pressure and help stabilise the prices of cotton and cotton yarn over the near term. 24 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited Longer term outlook remains healthy due to favourable demographics domestically and shifting of manufacturing base to lower cost destinations globally Over the longer term, the domestic growth is expected remain healthy due to increasing population, rising disposable incomes, rapid urbanization, favorable demographics with a large working class population and increased organized retail penetration. Additionally, rising disposable income in the hands of rural consumers due to rising agriculture Income, increased employment generation through National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) and Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) is likely to boost demand for low-ticket items. On the other hand, the exports markets are expected to grow due to shift of manufacturing bases from developed to low-cost Asian countries as they are losing their competitiveness for commoditised products to the Asian countries. Apparel Fabrics – large potential exists for the organised sector in cotton fabrics segment The Indian fabric market is highly fragmented, comprising of cotton, blended, 100% non-cotton, wool, silk and khadi. As per the textile ministry, the total fabric production is estimated to be 60,333 mn sq mtrs. Of this, the cotton fabric market is the largest market estimated at 47.9% of the total fabric market; while the 100% non-cotton, 100% blended & Khadi, Silk & Wool account for 37.9%, 12.9% & 1.3% respectively. The cotton fabric market has grown at a CAGR of 4.9% over FY05-10, with the organised sector growing at a CAGR of 5.3%. The organised sector in cotton fabrics accounts for 5.1% of total cotton fabrics production & contributes less than 2.5% of the total fabric production in India. The share of organised sector is expected to increase with increasing demand for higher quality fashion apparel and ready to wear apparels in India and Alok is expected to gain owing to its presence in the mid to high value segment. Home Textiles - Healthy growth supported by global retailers looking to de-risking their vendor base away from China and China unable to meet exports demand because of strong domestic growth Global home textiles market is estimated at around US$ 23 - 26 billion, accounting for 5-6% of the total global textile market. The home textiles market includes ‘Household textiles’ (Rugs, bed linen, table linen, bathroom and kitchen linen, etc) and ‘Furnishing textiles’ (Curtains, bedspreads and other furnishing articles for home interiors, etc.). In bed sheets, quilts and terry towel categories, India faces stiff competition from Pakistan and China. India and Pakistan Market Share in Bed Sheets by Value have been gradually gaining ground in the share of US 38% 32% imports at the expense of China and other smaller 29%30% exporting countries such as Israel, Brazil in home textiles. 26% 26% 26% 22%22% Growth in share of India’s market share is driven by 19% 16%14% decreasing competitiveness of China in low value-added textiles, strong domestic demand in China causing business to be partly diverted towards other countries and global retailers who are looking at de-risking their vendor base currently concentrated in China. These trends India China Pakistan Others are expected to continue in future too and we believe CY 2009 CY 2010 March YTD 2011 companies such as Alok having large manufacturing capacities in place are expected to benefit the most. Source: Office of Textiles and Apparel (OTEXA), USA 25 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited Polyester segment - Significant potential in the domestic market due to current low consumption levels Polyester Fibre per capita consumption (per kg) All fibres per capita consumption (per kg) 12 10.6 10 7.1 8 6 4 2 0 World 16.5 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 4.7 2.3 World India China India Source: Saurer, Industry Estimates Apr-11 Jan 11 Jul-10 Oct 10 Jan-10 Apr-10 Oct-09 Jul-09 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-08 Oct-08 Apr-08 Jan-08 Rs. Per Kg. Global all fibre per capita final consumer demand in 2010 is estimated at 10.6 kg, while that of India is at 7.1 kg. In comparison, per capita consumption in China is at 16 kg, North America is 31 kg and West Europe is at 22 kg. Domestic polyester fibre per capita consumption is half that of world average of 4.7 kg and way below China. We expect the polyester penetration levels to improve considerably going forward due to 1) Improving spending on textiles in rural areas 2) Increased non-apparel Domestic Fibre consumption breakup applications like automobiles and home furnishing 3) Versatility & high compatibility with natural fibre 4) Other fibres (Viscose, Decline in cultivating land combined with uncertainty of Acrylic, PP, natural fibre. The proportion of synthetics vs. cotton Nylon) 6% fibre in global fibre consumption worldwide is 57:43 whereas it is the opposite in India where cotton accounts Polyester for 61% of the total fibre consumption. Higher 33% proportion of cotton is mainly because of past Cotton 61% government policies favouring such trend, fiscal policy such as excise duty de-incentivised man-made fibres. However, the uniform national fibre policy to be launched by the government soon is expected to correct this anomaly. Source: Industry, Company annual reports Polyester Vs. Other Yarns As per various industry reports, PFY is expected to lead 300 the domestic demand growth in the overall textile chain. 250 High prices of cotton likely to result in substitution by 200 man-made fibres. The price gap between polyester and 150 cotton is widening and good quality cotton is becoming 100 increasingly difficult to source. Even after a sharp 50 correction in cotton yarn prices, price gap remains 0 substantial. On the other hand the price gap between polyester and other alternate fibre like viscose/ acrylics are also widening. This may lead to strengthening of Cotton Yarn Polyester yarn Viscose yarn polyester demand going forward. Source: Emerging textiles 26 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited FINANCIAL OUTLOOK Snapshot Robust revenue growth over the past five years; growth momentum likely to continue on account of aggressive capital expansions planned in certain segments going forward. Healthy EBDITA margins on the back of integrated operations and diversified product portfolio; however margins expected to moderate with increasing contribution from polyester yarn business; However, ROCE likely to witness improvement as polyester segment is relatively less capital intensive when compared with cotton based segments Expansion in Polyester Yarn division to drive revenue and EBITDA growth going forward We expect Alok to remain a leading intergrated player in the domestic textile industry with strong presence across product segments. We expect the company to exit its non-core real estate and retail ventures in due course and remain focussed on apparel fabric and home textiles division, along with significant thrust on the rapidly growing polyester yarn division. While the fabric division is estimated to grow at 11% CAGR over the FY11-FY14e period, home textiles is expected to growth at 13% CAGR and polyester yarn division to grow at a robust 52% CAGR during the period, backed by significant capacity expansions planned by the company. As a result, the revenue contribution from polyester division is expected to rise from ~25% in FY11 to ~42% in FY14e, making it the largest revenue contribution segment for Alok. Although the EBITDA margin of the polyester segment is expected to remain moderate at ~18%, significant increase in scale of polyester operations is expected to reduce the dependence on apparel fabric divisin, whose EBITDA contribution is expected to decline from ~57% in FY11 to ~44% in FY14e. Alok Industries: Revenue Contributions 100% 80% 21% 20% 27% 25% Garments 80% 60% 29% 35% 42% 17% 16% 16% 15% Polyester 60% 40% 12% 11% 10% Home Textiles 40% 34% 32% 29% Apparel Fabric FY14e FY13e -20% Others Garments Polyester Home Textiles Apparel Fabric 0% FY12e FY14e FY13e FY12e FY11e FY10a FY09a FY08a 0% 54% 66% 56% 57% 50% 47% 44% FY11e Spinning & Trading 20% FY10a 20% 39% 52% 44% 45% 16% 13% 18% 17% 22% 27% 33% 22% 19% 20% 16% 15% 14% 13% FY09a Others FY08a 100% Alok Industries: EBI TDA Contributions Spinning & Trading Source: Company ICRA Online Estimates; Aggressive capacity expansions to drive revenue growth; however higher polyester contribution and consolidation of UK retail business to reduce margins going forward Aggressive capacity expansion across business segments (more so in polyester division) along with relatively stable realisations are expected to result in a healthy 28% CAGR in the consolidated revenues for the company over the FY11-FY14e period. Despite the steep correction in raw material prices, we expect the company to maintain ~34% EBITDA margins in apparel fabrics, ~28% in home textiles and ~18% polyester segments. With increasing contributions from polyester business, overall EBITDA margins are expected to decline by ~4% over the next three years. Besides, the EBITDA margins are expected to be further impacted by ~2.5% due to the consolidation of UK based retail business, which has only recently achieved cash breakeven. However, with higher operating leverage, non-operating incomes stemming from exit of real estate ventures and debt-repayments post exit from non-core 27 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited businesses, the consolidated EBIT is expected to report 22% CAGR growth and consolidated net profits are expected to report a robust 36% CAGR growth over the same period (consolidated net margins for the company are expected to improve from ~6.6% in FY11 to ~7.7% in FY14e). Total net revenue Rs Crore 4,000 AIL's Trend in Profitability Margins 40% 3,000 30% 2,000 20% 1,000 10% FY14e FY13e FY10a EBITDA EBITDA Margin (RHS) Revenue Growth % (RHS) FY12e 0% FY11a 0 FY14e FY13e FY12e 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% FY11a 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 FY10a Rs Crore AIL's Consolidated Revenue Growth PAT PAT Margin (RHS) Source: Company ICRA Online Estimates Profitability indicators to improve from the lows in FY11a; gearing to moderate from FY14e onwards While the polyester division has lower EBITDA margins, it has higher RoCE due to lower capex and working capital requirements and higher asset turnover for the business. Hence, even through the consolidated EBITDA margins are expected to moderate from ~28% in FY11 to ~22% in FY14e, consolidated RoCE for the company is expected to improve from ~10% in FY11 to ~17% in FY15e and consolidated RoE to improve from ~16% to ~24% during the same period. The improvement in RoCE is also accentuated by exit from the non-core and capital intensive real estate ventures of the company, which along with healthy cash accruals are expected to reduce the consolidated debt / equity for the company from ~4.4 times in FY11 to ~2.1 times in FY14e. Overall, we expect a robust 36% CAGR growth in EPS for the company over the FY11a-FY14e period, aided by robust capacity expansions and our relatively stable pricing / realizations assumption going forward. AIL's EPS Growth 1.0 0% 0.0 RoE FY12e ROCE Debt/ Equity (RHS) 100% 50% 0% EPS FY14e 5% 150% FY13e 2.0 200% FY12e 10% 250% FY11a 3.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 FY10a 15% Rs / Share 4.0 FY14e 20% FY13e 5.0 FY11a 25% FY10a Return indicator (%) AIL's Return Indicators & Gearing EPS Growth (RHS) Source: Company ICRA Online Estimates 28 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited COMPANY PROFILE Alok Industries Limited (Alok), promoted by the Jiwrajka family, is a vertically integrated and a leading textile manufacturer having presence across the value chain from cotton spinning, polyester yarn, apparel fabrics, home textiles and garments manufacturing to retailing of garments and accessories. The company has 16 manufacturing plants located at Silvasa, Vapi and Navi Mumbai. At present, apparel fabrics is the largest segment of the company, accounting for 46.6% of Alok’s standalone sales, followed by polyester yarn (26.1%), home textiles (15.5%), cotton & cotton yarn trading (9.0%) and balance share(2.7%) comprised by garments. Alok has international presence through two companies, Mileta a.s. located in Czech Republic in which it holds 100% stake and Grabal Alok UK Ltd. in which it has 41.7% stake. Mileta a.s. is an integrated textile company with established distribution network in Europe, North Africa, USA, the Middle East, the Far East and the Asia Pacific regions. The Mileta acquisition has proved synergistically beneficial for Alok by way of technology inputs for producing valueadded yarn dyed fabrics. Grabal Alok UK Ltd is a leading garments and accessories retailing chain having 216 stores across England, Scotland and Wales. Alok is also present in domestic retail through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Alok H&A Limited under which it retails apparel and accessories and home textiles through 291 franshisee stores. Besides, Alok has also diversified into commercial and residential real estate business through its wholly owned subsidiary, Alok Infrastructure Limited. Although the retail investments of the company may take time to yield results, we expect the company to actively monetize its investments in real estate business to improve the capital structure and the return indicators of the company. Exhibit 23: Company Factsheet Name of the Company Alok Industries Limited (Alok) Year of Incorporation 1986 Registered Office Village Rakholi /Sayli, Silvassa, Union Territory of Dadra and Nagar Haveli Nature of Businesses Textiles– Spinning, Weaving & Garmenting Products Apparel fabrics, home textiles, polyester yarn, cotton yarn and garments. Retail, real estate and embroidery through subsidiary companies Manufacturing Locations Silvasa, Vapi and Navi Mumbai Auditors Gandhi & Parekh Board of Directors Key subsidiaries/ Joint Ventures/ associate companies Mr. Ashok B. Jiwrajka - Executive Chairman Mr. Dilip B. Jiwrajka - Managing Director Mr. Surendra B Jiwrajka - Joint Managing Director Mr. Chandrakumar Bubna - Executive Director Mr. Ashok Rajani - Non-Executive Director (Independent) Mr. K R Modi - Non-Executive Director (Independent) Ms. Thankom. T. Mathew - Non-Executive Director (LIC Nominee) Ms. Ms. Maya Chakravorty - Non-Executive Director (IDBI Nominee) Mr. M.V. Muthu - Non-Executive Director (IFCI Nominee) Mr. Debashish Mallick - Non-Executive Director (IDBI Nominee) Mr. David Rasquinha - Non-Executive Director (EXIM Nominee) Mr. Timothy Ingram - Non-Executive Director (Independent) Alok Infrastructure Limited Alok H&A Limited Alok Industries International Ltd. Alok Land Holdings Private Limited Mileta, a.s.(incorporated in the Czech Republic) Grabal Alok (UK) Ltd. Grabal Alok Impex Limited Source: Company, ICRA Online Research 29 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited Governance structure: Alok is managed by a 12 member Board, which includes seven independent directors, one non-executive director and three members from the Jiwar family. While the Jiwarajka family is closely involved in running Alok’s business, the company has a professional management structure across the company. The promoter group holds 29% equity stake in the company and the rest is widely held and includes institutional investors with . The disclosures in Alok Annual Report are adequate and have been broadly in line with that followed by the industry. Alok’s Corporate Structure (March 2011): Integrated Textiles Manufacturer Alok Industries Limited Apparel Fabrics Market Share: ~14% Plant Location: Vapi, Silvassa Capacity: Weaving -93.0 mn. Mtrs., Processing – 105.0 mn. Mtrs. Planned Expansion: Processing -21.0 mn. Mtrs., Weaving – 77.0 mn. Mtrs. Key Competitors: Vardhaman Textiles, Nahar Industrial Enterprises, SKumars’ Nationwide Limited Polyester Yarn Plant Locations: Silvassa Plant Location: Vapi, Silvassa Capacity: 270,000 tonnes per annum Capacity: Weaving -68.0 mn. Mtrs., Processing – 82.5 mn. Mtrs. Planned Expansion: 300,000 tonnes Key Competitors: Reliance Industries, Indo Rama Synthetics, JBF Industries, Garden Silk Mills Other Holdings Home Textiles Planned Expansion: Processing – 22.5 mn. Mtrs, Weaving – 24.0 mn. Mtrs. Key Competitors: Welspun, Himatsingka Seide, Hanung Toys & Textiles Subsidiaries: Alok H&A Limited Alok Infrastructure Limited Alok Realtors Private Limited Alok Land Holdings Limited Mileta a.s. Alok Industries International Limited Springdale Information and Technologies Private Limited Kesham Developers & Infotech Private Limited Joint Ventures: Ashford Royale Residential Complex Associates: Grabal Alok (UK) Limited Grabal Alok Impex Limited Alok H&A Limited (Domestic Retailing) Grabal Alok (UK)LimitedAssociate Alok Realtors Pvt Ltd (Comercial Real Estate) Ashford Royale Residential Complex- JV Ashford Centre, Lower Parel Sales: Rs. 80 crore Store Count: 291 Products: Apparels and accessories Planned expansion: 500 stores by FY 2012, mainly working capital funding Store Count: 216 Products: Value retailing of apparels and accessories Planned expansion: 20 stores per year Exit plan: Broken even, plan to exit by FY 2013 at cost Total saleable area: 641,000 sq.ft. Total cost: Rs. 1,275 crore Status: Possesion by June, 2011 Future plan: Exit in nearterm Total saleable area: ~1 mn.sq.ft. Total Cost: ~Rs. 600 crore, Alok’s share ~ Rs. 300 crore Project Status: Excavation started, Expected completion: December, 2014 Total saleable area: 60,000 mn.sq.ft. (8 floors) Total Cost: ~Rs. 125 crore, Project Status: Occupancy certificate received Future plan: Sell half the area and retain the rest for its corporate office Source: Company, ICRA Online Research 30 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited VALUATION GRADING In assessing a company's valuation, various parameters are looked at including the company's earnings and growth prospects; its ability to generate free cash flows and its capacity to generate returns from the capital invested. The valuation is also benchmarked against an appropriate peer set or index. The opinion on a company's relative valuation is expressed using the following five-point scale as follows: Exhibit 24: ICRA Equity Research Service—Valuation Grades Valuation Grade Grade Implication A Significantly Undervalued B Moderately Undervalued C Fairly Valued D Moderately Overvalued E Significantly Overvalued While assessing a company's relative valuation, the historical price volatility exhibited by the stock, besides its liquidity, is also taken into account. The extent of overvaluation or undervaluation is adjusted for the relative volatility displayed by the stock. Source: ICRA Online Research Despite the near term headwinds faced by the textile industry, Alok’s current valuation multiples (~3.3 times FY12 earnings, ~0.43 times FY12 book value) seems quite attractive considering Alok’s integrated and diversified business model with lower dependence on textile exports. The valuation multiples are are expected to further moderate rapidly from the FY12e levels due to strong earnings growth over the next three years contributed by large capacity additions and improvement in the capital structure through exit from non-core businesses. Overall, we expect the company to report a robust 28% CAGR revenue growth and 36% CAGR EPS growth over the FY11a-FY14e period, aided by robust capacity expansions and healthy domestic consumuption demand going forward. Hence, we assign a valuation grade of “A” to Alok on a grading scale of ‘A’ to ‘E’, which indicates that the company is “significantly undervalued” on a relative basis. Exhibit 25: Relative Valuations Vs Equity Indices: Alok ICRA Estimates Industries Ltd NIFTY INDEX CNX 500 INDEX CNX MIDCAP INDEX FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E Price/Earnings 3.30 1.86 13.98 11.88 13.27 11.09 11.31 9.39 EV/EBITDA 5.93 4.85 9.48 8.22 9.35 7.92 9.70 7.91 Price /Sales 0.16 0.13 1.58 1.43 1.30 1.16 0.82 0.74 Price /Book Value 0.43 0.36 2.32 2.03 2.09 1.81 1.51 1.31 Price/Cash Flow 1.36 0.99 10.26 8.85 9.53 8.00 7.01 5.76 Source: Bloomberg, ICRA Online Estimates * Bloomberg Consensus Estimates as on 16th September, 2011 Exhibit 26: Relative Valuations Vs Industry Peers: Alok S. Kumars ICRA Estimates Industries Ltd Nationwide Ltd JBF Industries Ltd Provogue (India) Ltd Vardhman Textiles Ltd FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E Price/Earnings 3.30 1.86 3.61 2.43 2.68 2.21 7.96 6.85 3.49 3.38 EV/EBITDA 5.93 4.85 3.94 3.32 3.24 2.88 10.87 9.39 4.57 4.77 Price /Sales 0.16 0.13 0.23 0.19 0.13 0.12 0.57 0.51 0.28 0.29 Price /Book Value 0.43 0.36 0.44 0.36 0.57 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.45 0.41 Price/Cash Flow 1.36 0.99 2.69 NA 1.85 1.62 5.69 4.89 1.89 1.90 Source: Bloomberg, ICRA Online Estimates * Bloomberg Consensus Estimates as on 16th September, 2011 31 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited ANNEXURES Alok Industries Limited – P&L Estimates (Consolidated) Rs. Crores FY10A FY11A FY12E FY13E FY14E Net sales 4,315.5 6,460.4 8,831.3 10,945.9 13,570.2 107.1 151.5 207.1 256.6 318.2 Total net revenue 4,422.6 6,611.8 9,038.3 11,202.6 13,888.3 EBITDA Other related income 1,267.9 1,809.8 2,098.0 2,563.1 3,050.8 Depreciation 366.9 531.0 627.2 676.1 707.7 EBIT 901.0 1,278.8 1,470.8 1,887.0 2,343.2 Other Income -37.0 -25.1 116.4 207.7 170.2 Interest Expenses 598.8 737.1 939.7 941.2 920.2 PBT 265.2 516.6 647.5 1,153.5 1,593.2 Tax Expense 128.2 81.2 210.1 374.3 517.0 0.6 -11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 PAT 137.7 424.2 437.4 779.2 1,076.2 Number of shares (in Cr) 78.77 78.77 78.77 78.77 78.77 EPS 1.7 5.4 5.6 9.9 13.7 CEPS 6.4 12.1 13.5 18.5 22.6 DPS 0.3 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.0 Minority Interest Alok Industries Limited – Balance Sheet Estimates (Consolidated) Rs. Crores FY10A FY11A FY12E FY13E FY14E Net worth 2,732.5 2,792.1 3,400.8 4,063.2 4,977.9 Total Debt 9,744.3 12,200.3 12,151.9 10,754.5 10,356.3 Deferred Tax Liability 403.0 500.3 500.3 500.3 500.3 Trade Creditors 598.3 818.8 1,353.2 1,684.5 2,113.1 Other Current Liabilities and Provisions 171.6 376.1 226.0 280.1 347.2 Total liabilities 13,671.3 16,712.4 17,636.8 17,287.2 18,299.4 Net fixed assets 7,218.6 7,706.0 9,856.8 8,680.7 8,673.0 Capital Work in Progress 948.4 2,263.6 763.6 663.6 563.6 Other Long-Term Investments 416.9 479.0 254.0 254.0 254.0 Cash and Bank Balances 1,410.7 1,202.3 952.3 702.3 452.3 Receivables 1,198.2 2,057.1 2,310.0 2,829.2 3,445.0 Inventories 1,567.8 2,167.1 2,596.4 3,037.2 3,522.7 Loans & Advances 789.8 687.0 903.8 1,120.3 1,388.8 Other Current Assets 120.7 150.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 13,671.1 16,712.4 17,636.8 17,287.2 18,299.4 Total Assets 32 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited Alok Industries Limited – Cash Flow Estimates (Consolidated) Rs. Crores FY10A FY11A FY12E FY13E FY14E PAT Depreciation Change in net working capital Cash flow from operating activities 137.7 366.9 (856.7) (352.1) 424.2 531.0 (896.3) 58.9 437.4 627.2 (342.5) 722.1 779.2 676.1 (791.0) 664.3 1,076.2 707.7 (874.2) 909.7 Investments Capital expenditures Cash flow from investing activities 47.1 (2,200.1) (2,153.0) (62.1) (2,333.3) (2,395.4) 225.0 (1,278.2) (1,053.2) 0.0 (700.0) (700.0) 0.0 (600.0) (600.0) Equity Raised / (Buyback) Loans Raised / (Repaid) Others (Including Extra-ordinaries) Dividend Cash Flow from Financing activities 762.6 2,701.4 41.6 (17.3) 3,488.3 0.0 2,455.9 (304.9) (22.9) 2,128.1 20.6 (48.3) 197.4 (88.6) 81.1 0.0 (1,397.4) 1,300.0 (116.9) (214.3) 0.0 (398.2) 0.0 (161.4) (559.7) Cumulative cash flow Opening Cash Balance Closing Cash Balance 983.2 427.4 1,410.7 (208.4) 1,410.7 1,202.3 (250.0) 1,202.3 952.3 (250.0) 952.3 702.3 (250.0) 702.3 452.3 Alok Industries Limited – Key Financial Ratios (Consolidated) Rs. Crores FY10A FY11A FY12E FY13E FY14E Growth indicators Sales Growth EBITDA Growth EPS Growth Cash EPS Growth 43.4% 57.9% 86.0% 60.6% 49.7% 42.7% 208.1% 89.3% 36.7% 15.9% 3.1% 11.4% 23.9% 22.2% 78.1% 36.7% 24.0% 19.0% 38.1% 22.6% Profitability indicators EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin PAT Margin RoE ROCE 28.7% 19.5% 3.1% 5.9% 9.5% 27.4% 19.0% 6.6% 15.7% 10.3% 23.2% 17.6% 4.8% 14.1% 11.1% 22.9% 18.7% 7.0% 20.9% 14.0% 22.0% 18.1% 7.7% 23.8% 16.8% Liquidity ratios Debtor (days) Creditors (days) Inventory (days) Net working Capital/Sales 100 71 208 67.7% 114 66 184 58.8% 94 75 153 46.8% 93 75 144 44.8% 91 75 133 42.5% 3.6 2.1 7.7 4.4 2.5 6.7 3.6 2.2 5.8 2.6 2.7 4.2 2.1 3.3 3.4 10.50 7.71 0.33 0.53 3.41 6.88 0.22 0.52 3.30 5.93 0.16 0.43 1.86 4.85 0.13 0.36 1.34 4.08 0.10 0.29 Capitalization Ratios Total Debt/ Equity Interest coverage Total Debt/EBITDA Valuation Ratios Price/Earnings EV/EBITDA Price/Sales Price/Book Value Source: ICRA Online Estimates 33 ICRA Equity Research Service Alok Industries Limited ICRA Limited CORPORATE OFFICE Building No. 8, 2nd Floor, Tower A, DLF Cyber City, Phase II, Gurgaon 122002 Ph: +91-124-4545300, 4545800 Fax; +91-124-4545350 REGISTERED OFFICE 1105, Kailash Building, 11th Floor, 26, Kasturba Gandhi Marg, New Delhi – 110 001 Tel: +91-11-23357940-50 Fax: +91-11-23357014 CHENNAI Mr. Jayanta Chatterjee Mobile: 9845022459 Mr. D. Vinod Mobile: 9940648006 5th Floor, Karumuttu Centre, 498 Anna Salai, Nandanam, Chennai-600035. Tel: +91-44-45964300, 24340043/9659/8080 Fax:91-44-24343663 E-mail: jayantac@icraindia.com d.vinod@icraindia.com HYDERABAD Mr. M.S.K. Aditya Mobile: 9963253777 301, CONCOURSE, 3rd Floor, No. 7-1-58, Ameerpet, Hyderabad 500 016. Tel: +91-40-23735061, 23737251 Fax: +91-40- 2373 5152 E-mail: adityamsk@icraindia.com MUMBAI Mr. L. Shivakumar Mobile: 9821086490 3rd Floor, Electric Mansion, Appasaheb Marathe Marg, Prabhadevi, Mumbai - 400 025 Ph : +91-22-30470000, 24331046/53/62/74/86/87 Fax : +91-22-2433 1390 E-mail: shivakumar@icraindia.com KOLKATA Ms. Anuradha Ray Mobile: 9831086462 A-10 & 11, 3rd Floor, FMC Fortuna, 234/ 3A, A.J.C. Bose Road, Kolkata-700020. Tel: +91-33-22876617/ 8839, 22800008, 22831411 Fax: +91-33-2287 0728 E-mail: anuradha@icraindia.com PUNE Mr. Sameer Mahajan Mobile: 9881300772 5A, 5th Floor, Symphony, S. No. 210, CTS 3202, Range Hills Road, Shivajinagar, Pune-411 020 Tel : +91- 20- 25561194, 25560195/196, Fax : +91- 20- 2553 9231 E-mail: sameer.mahajan@icraindia.com GURGAON Mr. Vivek Mathur Mobile: 9871221122 Building No. 8, 2nd Floor, Tower A, DLF Cyber City, Phase II, Gurgaon 122002 Ph: +91-124-4545300, 4545800 Fax; +91-124-4545350 E-mail: vivek@icraindia.com AHMEDABAD Mr. Animesh Bhabhalia Mobile: 9824029432 907 & 908 Sakar -II, Ellisbridge, Ahmedabad- 380006 Tel: +91-79-26585049/2008/5494, Fax:+91-79- 2648 4924 E-mail: animesh@icraindia.com BANGALORE Mr. Jayanta Chatterjee Mobile: 9845022459 'The Millenia', Tower B, Unit No. 1004, 10th Floor, Level 2, 12-14, 1 & 2, Murphy Road, Bangalore - 560 008 Tel: +91-80-43326400, Fax: +91-80-43326409 E-mail: jayantac@icraindia.com www.icra.in ICRA ONLINE LIMITED Corporate Office 107, 1st Floor, Raheja Arcade Plot No. 61, Sector-XI, CBD Belapur, Navi Mumbai Maharashtra-400614. 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