Strategic analysis of Lithium ion Battery (LIB) business opportunities

Transcription

Information for growth
The Portable Rechargeable Battery (PRB)
market in Europe (2008-2015)
A report prepared by Avicenne
for RECHARGE aisbl
December 2010
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
OBJECTIVES
 RECHARGE requested AVICENNE to perform a
market research study on Portable Rechargeable
Batteries (PRB) in Europe.
 The data on the Portable Rechargeable Battery (PRB)
market in Europe are presented in this Report
according to
o
o
o
o
Their Sales Volume (number of cells and weight)
The technologies (NiCd, NiMH & Li-ion)
The major applications
It contains also information on the market distribution by
country (see geographic distribution).
2
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METHODOLOGY
Applications
Raw Materials
Portable
Electronics
Power Tools
Battery suppliers
Battery Market
Raw materials market
Automotives
Experts &
Researchers
Others
3
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SCOPE OF THE SURVEY
Countries
Individual Data:
Austria, Belgium, France,
Germany, Italy, Netherlands,
Spain, Switzerland, UK
4 Nordic countries
Total of 4 eastern countries:
Poland, Romania, Czech
Republic, Hungary
Mobile
Phones
Portable
PCs
Power
Tools
Consumer cells
on retail
Others
TOTAL
Details for
NiCd, NiMH
& Li-ion
Others
TOTAL
Other western Europe: Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta, Greece, Ireland
Other eastern Europe: Bulgaria, Estonia, Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia, Slovenia
4
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THE PRB MARKET WORLDWIDE
CAGR* 2008/2015:+10%
45'000
40'000
40'000
35'000
35'000
30'000
30'000
MWh
M Wh
45'000
PRB sales by chemistry
MWh, Worldwide, 2008-2015
CAGR: +10%
25'000
20'000
25'000
20'000
15'000
15'000
10'000
10'000
5'000
5'000
-
PRB sales, by applications
MWh, Worldwide, 2008-2015
CAGR: +10%
2008
NiCd
2010
2012
NiMH
2014
Li-ion
2008
Mobile Phones
2010
2012
Portable PCs
2014
Power tools
Others
Source: Avicenne, September 2010
*Note
CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate:
5
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DEFINITIONS (1/2)
 Cell – Battery – Pack
 Cell: unique element
 Battery Pack is a set of any number of (preferably) identical batteries or
individual battery cells.
 Battery pack After Market: average number of pack used in the life of the
device
 2 packs sold with the same device, or
 Replacement
Average Number of cells
per pack in 2009
Average Number of pack
used per device in 2009
Mobile Phone
1 Li-ion cell / pack
1,02 pack / device
Portable PCs
5.8 Li-ion cells / pack
1,04 pack /device
Power Tools NiCd
10.6 NiCd cells / pack
1,42 pack / device
Power Tools Li-ion
5 Li-ion cells/pack
1.94 pack / device
6
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DEFINITION (2/2)
 NiCd, NiMH & Li-ion usage in 2009
% of device equipped by each battery chemistry
NiCd
NiMH
Li-ion
Mobile Phone
0%
0%
100%
Portable PCs
0%
1%
99%
Power Tools
67%
2%
31%
 Average cell weight in 2009
NiCd
NiMH
Mobile Phone
22 g
Portable PCs
Power Tools
Li-ion
50 g
60 g
48 g
55 g
45 g
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AGENDA





Mobile Phones Battery market
Portable PCs Battery market
Power Tools Battery market
Consumer battery market (single cell sold in retail)
Other battery market







Camcorders
Digital Camera
Video Games
MP3 Players
PDA
Toys
Household devices (shavers…)
 Conclusions
8
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AGENDA
NiCd
NiMH
Mobile Phones
P 11
Portable PCs
Cordless Tools
Consumer Single cells
Li-ion
P 31
P 33
P 21
P 43
P 51
Others
P 60
TOTAL
P 65
9
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MOBILE PHONE BATTERY MARKET
METHODOLOGY & DATA SOURCES
Pack/Device
Number of
mobile Phones
Cells/pack
Number of
pack
Weight/cell
Number of
cells
Tons of
batteries
AVICENNE
Crosscheck
Import/export data
by country
IDC, Gartner,..
Surveys
Number of
subscribers
Avicenne Annual
survey based on
Hundreds of
interviews on the
Battery market
Avicenne
data
Renewal
Ratio
10
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MOBILE PHONES SOLD BY COUNTRY
163 M IN 2009 TO 208 M IN 2015 (CAGR:+4.2%)
Million mobile phones / year
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
-
43
35
31
23
16
27
25
22
17
14
17
45
34
67
9
33
45
12
11
6
8
3
5
2009
2015
11
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LI-ION CELLS FOR MOBILE PHONES
167M IN 2009 TO 212M IN 2015 (CAGR:+4%)
Million of cells / year
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
-
- 100% of mobile phones
equipped with Li-ion
- Pack per device = 1.02
- Cell per pack= 1
44
36
31
28
26
23
17
23
18
15
17
45
34
9
77
33
4
6
12
11
6
8
3
5
2009
2015
12
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LI-ION CELLS FOR MOBILE PHONES
3700 TONS IN 2009 TO 4700 TONS IN 2015 (CAGR:+4%)
- Average weight / cell:
22 g
1'200
Tons / year
1'000
800
600
400
200
976
789
687
511
368
610
564
508
389
324
380
252
105 98
81
74
160
142
76
59
122 201
97
185
143
264
108
68
-
2009
2015
13
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LI-ION MARKET FOR MOBILE
PHONES (BY NUMBER OF CELLS)
250
Others
M cells / year
200
Portugal
Netherlands
150
4 Nordics
PRCH
Spain
100
Italy
France
50
UK
Germany
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Note
PRCH: Poland, Romania, Czech Republic, Hungary
CONFIDENTIAL FOR RECHARGE - December 2010
14
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LI-ION MARKET FOR CELLULAR PHONES
(BY WEIGHT)
5'000
4'500
Others
4'000
Portugal
Tons / year
3'500
Netherlands
3'000
4 Nordics
2'500
PRCH
2'000
Spain
1'500
Italy
1'000
France
UK
500
Germany
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Note
15
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PORTABLE PC BATTERY MARKET
Pack/Device
Cells/pack
Weight/cell
Avicenne Annual survey based on
Hundreds of interviews on the
Battery market
Li-ion cells
Number of
pack
Number of
cells
Tons of
batteries
Number of
pack
Number of
cells
Tons of
batteries
Number of
Portable PCs
NiMH cells
Pack/Device
Cells/pack
AVICENNE
Crosscheck
Import/export data
by country
IDC, Gartner
surveys
Number of
subscribers
Weight/cell
Avicenne Annual survey based on
Hundreds of interviews on the
Battery market
Avicenne
data
Renewal
Ratio
16
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PORTABLE PC SOLD BY COUNTRY
48 M IN 2009 TO 91 M IN 2015 (CAGR:+11%)
Million Portable PC/ year
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
-
18
14
12
11
10
6
7
7
7
6
5
4
1
2
1
2
3
2
1
2
1
2
3
4
2
4
1
2
2009
2015
17
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LI-ION CELLS FOR PORTABLE PC
280M IN 2009 TO 505M IN 2015 (CAGR:+10%)
- 99% of Portable PC
equipped with Li-ion
- Pack per device = 1.04
- Cell per pack= from 5.8
in 2009 to 5.5 in 2015
120
100
101
76
80
60
40
66
56
36
61
34
29
23
20
43
42
41
7
12
6
11
17
9
5
9
6
10
16
21
11
24
6
10
-
2009
2015
18
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LI-ION CELLS FOR PORTABLE PC
13 000 TONS IN 2009 TO 24 000 TONS IN 2015 (CAGR:+10%)
- Average weight / cell:
48 g
6'000
Tons / year
5'000
4'847
3'635
4'000
3'151
3'000
2'000
1'000
2'688
2'908
1'747 1'613
2'016
1'969
1'092
800
415
573 510
443
318 283
230
1'371
485 760
269
990
549
2'076
1'151
500
277
-
2009
2015
19
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LI-ION CELLS MARKET FOR PORTABLE PC
(BY NUMBER OF CELLS)
600
Others
Austria
500
M cells / year
Belgium
Portugal
400
Netherlands
300
4 Nordics
PRCH
200
Spain
Italy
100
France
UK
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Germany
Note
20
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
LI-ION CELLS MARKET FOR PORTABLE PC
(BY WEIGHT)
30'000
Others
Austria
25'000
Belgium
Portugal
Tons / year
20'000
Netherlands
15'000
4 Nordics
PRCH
10'000
Spain
Italy
5'000
France
UK
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Germany
Note
21
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NIMH CELLS MARKET FOR PORTABLE PC
25
Others
Austria
M cells / year
20
Belgium
Portugal
15
Netherlands
4 Nordics
PRCH
10
Spain
Italy
5
France
UK
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Germany
Note
22
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NIMH CELLS MARKET FOR PORTABLE PC
(BY WEIGHT)
1'600
Others
1'400
Austria
Belgium
Tons / year
1'200
Portugal
1'000
Netherlands
800
4 Nordics
600
PRCH
Spain
400
Italy
200
France
UK
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Germany
Note
23
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CORDLESS POWER TOOLS* SOLD BY COUNTRY
13 M IN 2009 TO 16 M IN 2015 (CAGR:+4%)
Million cordless Power tools / year
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
-
3.4
1.9
2.3
2.1
1.3
1.3
1.0
0.6
0.3
0.3
0.6
0.3
0.3
0.3
2009
2015
* Notes: Including all the Cordless Power tools sold in Europe: B&D, Bosch, Makita, TTI, Jingding, other chineses
24
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BATTERY FOR CORDLESS TOOLS IN EUROPE
BY CHEMISTRY
80%
70%
60%
50%
NiCd
40%
NiMH
30%
Li-ion
20%
10%
0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
25
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NICD CELLS FOR CORDLESS TOOLS
STABLE AT 122-126 M CELLS
30
- Pack per device = 1.42 in
2009 to 1.35 in 2015
26
25
20
15
10
5
- Average Cell per pack: 11
19
15
16
10
9
7
3
3
4
2
2
2
2
-
2009
2015
26
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NICD CELLS FOR CORDLESS TOOLS
STABLE AT 6 000 TONS / YEAR
Tons / year
1'600
1'400
1'200
1'000
800
600
400
200
-
- Average weight / cell : 50 g
1'308
934
747
810
498
374
147
131
206
107
467
125
125
125
2009
2015
27
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NICD CELLS MARKET FOR CORDLESS TOOLS
160
Others
140
Austria
Belgium
M cells / year
120
Portugal
100
Netherlands
80
4 Nordics
60
PRCH
Spain
40
Italy
20
France
UK
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Germany
Note
28
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
NICD CELLS MARKET FOR CORDLESS TOOLS
(BY WEIGHT)
8'000
Others
7'000
Austria
Belgium
Tons / year
6'000
Portugal
5'000
Netherlands
4'000
4 Nordics
3'000
PRCH
Spain
2'000
Italy
1'000
France
UK
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Germany
Note
29
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
LI-ION CELLS FOR CORDLESS TOOLS
FROM 38 M CELLS IN 2009 TO 69 M CELLS IN 2015 (CAGR:+11%)
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
-
- Pack per device = 1.94 in
2009 to 1.90 in 2015
13.8
- Cell per pack= 5
9.8
7.9
8.5
7.0
5.3
4.0
5.0
4.3
4.9
3.9
2.7
1.6
0.8
2.2
1.4 1.1
0.7
1.1
0.6
1.3
0.7
2.0
2.5
1.3
0.7
1.3
0.7
2009
2015
30
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LI-ION CELLS FOR CORDLESS TOOLS
FROM 1700 TONS IN 2009 TO 3100 TONS IN 2015
Tons / year
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
-
666
475
362
380
207
412
224
259
254
105
138
75
41
67
36
54
57
30
190
63
34
238
129
103
3463
63
34
2009
2015
31
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
LI-ION CELLS MARKET FOR CORDLESS TOOLS
80
Others
70
Austria
Belgium
M cells / year
60
Portugal
50
Netherlands
40
4 Nordics
30
PRCH
Spain
20
Italy
10
France
UK
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Germany
Note
32
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
LI-ION CELLS MARKET FOR CORDLESS TOOL
(BY WEIGHT)
3'500
Others
3'000
Austria
Belgium
Tons / year
2'500
Portugal
Netherlands
2'000
4 Nordics
1'500
PRCH
1'000
Spain
Italy
500
France
UK
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Germany
Note
33
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CONSUMER BATTERY (SINGLE CELL FOR RETAIL) MARKET
Weight/cell
Estimation of the single cells on
the consumer market and
replacement cell market for
Digital camera, toys, household
devices…
Number of
cells
Tons of
batteries
Battery Makers
* Source: The rechargeable battery market, 2009-2020, Avicenne, August 2010
34
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NIMH SINGLE CELLS MARKET
160 M IN 2009 TO 223M IN 2015 (CAGR:+6%)
- 100% of consumer cells
are NiMH in Europe
60
50
40
30
20
10
48
34
34
31
23
16
24
22
18
13
45
35
5
14
10
7
34
35
6
9
17
12
35
-
2009
2015
35
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4800 TONS IN 2009 TO 6700 TONS IN 2015 (CAGR:+6%)
Tons / year
1'600
1'400
1'200
1'000
800
600
400
200
-
AA NiMH single cell
1'443
1'016
1'033
922
727
682 660
488
542
387
406
223
160 143
116
115 102 160
83
135
97
291
508
271 363
194
135
97
2009
2015
36
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250
Others
Austria
M cells / year
200
Belgium
Portugal
150
Netherlands
4 Nordics
PRCH
100
Spain
Italy
50
France
UK
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Germany
Note
37
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
(BY WEIGHT)
8'000
Others
7'000
Austria
Belgium
Tons / year
6'000
Portugal
5'000
Netherlands
4'000
4 Nordics
3'000
PRCH
Spain
2'000
Italy
1'000
France
UK
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Germany
Note
38
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OTHER PRB IN EUROPE
Applications
NiCd
NiMH
Li-ion
3 300 tons in 2009
3 500 tons in 2009
Video Games
Camcorders
Home Cordless
Phones
Cordless Shavers
Toothbrush
Cleaners
MP3 players
Portable Medical
devices, others
TOTAL
39
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NIMH CELLS MARKET FOR « OTHER APPLICATIONS »
140
Others
120
Austria
Belgium
M cells / year
100
Portugal
Netherlands
80
4 Nordics
60
PRCH
40
Spain
Italy
20
France
UK
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Germany
Note
40
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
LI-ION CELLS MARKET FOR « OTHER APPLICATIONS »
180
Others
M cells / year
160
Austria
140
Belgium
120
Portugal
100
Netherlands
4 Nordics
80
PRCH
60
Spain
40
Italy
20
France
UK
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Germany
Note
41
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NIMH CELLS MARKET FOR « OTHER APPLICATIONS »
(BY WEIGHT)
4000
Others
3500
Austria
Belgium
Tons / year
3000
Portugal
2500
Netherlands
2000
4 Nordics
1500
PRCH
Spain
1000
Italy
France
500
UK
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Note
Germany
- Average weight for NiMH cells:
30-33 g
42
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LI-ION CELLS MARKET FOR « OTHER APPLICATIONS »
(BY WEIGHT)
6'000
Others
Austria
5'000
Belgium
Portugal
Tons / year
4'000
Netherlands
3'000
4 Nordics
PRCH
2'000
Spain
Italy
1'000
France
UK
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Note
Germany
- Average weight for NiMH cells:
30-33 g
43
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EUROPEAN PRB MARKET
38 000 TONS IN 2009 TO 55 000 TONS IN 2015 (CAGR: +7%)
60000
50000
Li-ion
(CAGR: +9%)
Tons / Year
40000
30000
NiMH
(CAGR: +5%)
20000
NiCd
(CAGR: -0,5%)
10000
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
44
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EUROPEAN PRB MARKET
12'000
11400
Tons / year
10'000
8'000
6'000
4'000
2'000
8200
7'800
6700
7100
5'600
4'500
4'900
4500
4500
3'100
1300 1200 1800
1'300
900
900 800
600
3200
3'000
2'200
2000
1100
1'400
800
1100
800
-
2009
2015
45
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
EUROPEAN PRB MARKET
European PRB market in
2009
European PRB market in
2015
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
40000
Others
Others
35000
15000
Portable
PCs
10000
Mobile
Phones
5000
0
Li-ion
Li-ion
NiMH
Mobile
Phones
Cordless
Tools
20000
NiMH
Portable
PCs
25000
NiCd
Cordless
Tools
Single
Cells
30000
Tons / Year
Single
Cells
NiCd
Tons / Year
46
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LI-ION BATTERY CHEMISTRY
Li-ion Chemistry for Mobile Phones
100%
Li-ion Chemistry for Portable PCs
LiCoO2
100%
80%
80%
60%
60%
40%
40%
20%
20%
0%
NMC/NCA
LiMn2O4
NMC/NCA
LiCoO2
LiMn2O4
LiFePO4
0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Li-ion Chemistry for Power tools
Li-ion Chemistry for Others
100%
100%
80%
80%
60%
60%
NMC/NCA
40%
40%
20%
LiFePO4
LiMn2O4
20%
0%
LiCoO2
0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
LiCoO2
NMC/NCA
LiFePO4
LiMn2O4
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
47
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EUROPEAN LI-ION PRB MARKET BY CHEMISTRY
40000
Li-ion Chemistry for PRB in Europe
100%
35000
90%
30000
80%
70%
60%
50%
NMC/NCA
LiFePO4
NMC/NCA
20000
LiMn2O4
LiCoO2
15000
40%
30%
Tons / Year
25000
LiCoO2
10000
20%
LiMn2O4
5000
10%
LiFePO4
0
0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
48
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AVICENNE
Information for a competitive Edge
Powering your company’s market strategy with in-depth research
 Creation: 1992
 Headquarter: Paris
 Liaison Office: Japan, USA
 Director: M. Madani
 Battery Survey Manager: C. Pillot
@
49
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Strategic analysis of Lithium ion Battery (LIB) business opportunities

Transcription

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