Canada Research Baylin Technologies Inc.

Transcription

Canada Research
Published by Raymond James Ltd.
January 20, 2014
Baylin Technologies Inc.
BYL-TSX
Company Report - Initiation of Coverage
Steven Li CFA | 416.777.4918 | steven.li@raymondjames.ca
Jonathan Lo (Associate) | 416.777.6414 | jonathan.lo@raymondjames.ca
Rating & Target
Target Price (6-12 mos):
Current Price ( Jan-16-14 )
Total Return to Target
52-Week Range
IT Hardware
Initiating Coverage of Baylin at Outperform
Event
Suitability
Initiating coverage of Baylin Technologies Inc. (Baylin) at Outperform.
Aggressive Growth
Recommendation
Antennas are essential to wireless communications, becoming more complex (5G), and
increasingly critical as smartphone growth shifts to emerging markets (less developed
infrastructure). For 35 years, Baylin has supplied custom engineered antennas, leveraging
its antenna technology and vertical integration, and now looks poised to gain further
share. We concede recent Samsung developments keep our enthusiasm in check nearterm, but with a solid longer-term growth outlook we would use price weaknesses to
accumulate positions.
Analysis
Multiple Plays on Wireless Market Expansion. Baylin focuses on three wireless segments:
mobile, wireless infrastructure (small cell and DAS), and broadband (Wi-Fi routers and
hotspots). Collectively, we estimate these markets have a TAM of 7+ bln antennas
annually and we expect the TAM to double by 2017.
Proven Vertical Integration/Time to Market Advantages. Baylin has successfully parlayed
its antenna technology and vertical integration into a strong reputation for high quality
and reliable antennas and, importantly, time to market. These advantages have won
Baylin antenna slots for all four of the Galaxy S smartphones. Samsung’s phenomenal
growth has kept a capital-constrained Baylin busy. With the IPO proceeds and the planned
Vietnam expansion, Baylin now has the capacity to chase additional tier 1 customers.
Samsung Opportunity & Risk. Baylin faces high customer concentration. This brings both
opportunities and risks. By locating next door to Samsung’s Vietnam plant, Baylin has the
opportunity to gain share with Samsung, but near-term there is also risk as Samsung appears
to have materially lowered its 2014 smartphone projections recently. It is possible Samsung’s
slowdown comes primarily from developed markets where smartphone penetration is
maturing (in which case Baylin would have more exposure as it supplies the Galaxy series).
Model. F2014 estimates include revenues of $83.5 mln (+3% y/y), gross margin of 31.5%
(vs. 33% in 2013), and EPS of $0.36 (flat y/y) – muted due to Samsung’s recent
developments. We expect revenue growth, gross margins, and EPS to recover in 2015 as
its Vietnam expansion comes on-line and its infrastructure business continues its very fast
growth rate, organically and through M&A.
Market Data
Market Capitalization (mln)
Current Net Debt (mln)
Enterprise Value (mil.)
Shares Outstanding (mln, f.d.)
10 Day Avg Daily Volume (000s)
Dividend/Yield
Key Financial Metrics
2012A
2013E
P/E
nm
19.8x
EV/EBITDA
10.7x
8.0x
EV/Revenue
1.4x
1.2x
Our $9.00 target is based on 8.7x 2015E EBITDA or 15x 2015E EPS, in-line with its peers’
current year average trading multiples (8.9x EBITDA and 14.5x EPS). Please see our Valuation
& Recommendation section for more details.
1Q
Mar
2Q
Jun
3Q
Sep
4Q
Dec
Full
Year
Revenues
(mln)
EBITDA
(mln)
2012A
NA
NA
NA
NA
C$0.11
C$69
C$9
2013E
0.11A
0.35A
0.06A
0.01
0.36
81
12
2014E
(0.01)
0.19
0.11
0.06
0.36
84
10
2015E
NA
NA
NA
NA
0.58
99
15
Source: Raymond James Ltd., Thomson One
Please read domestic and foreign disclosure/risk information beginning on page 29 and Analyst Certification on page 29.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
C$135
-C$39
C$96
18.7
64
C$0.00/0.0%
2014E
2015E
20.1x
12.5x
9.6x
6.4x
1.1x
1.0x
Company Description
Baylin Technologies, established in 1978, designs and
manufactures antennas for mobile phones, home
networking and wireless infrastructure.
Valuation
EPS
Outperform 2
C$9.00
C$7.20
25%
C$8.35 - C$7.00
Canada Research | Page 2 of 34
Table of Contents
Investment Thesis ............................................................................................................................... 3
Investment Risks ................................................................................................................................. 4
Company Background ......................................................................................................................... 6
Industry Overview & Market Analysis ................................................................................................ 8
Customer Concentration .................................................................................................................... 14
Geographic Breakdown ...................................................................................................................... 15
Product Portfolio ................................................................................................................................ 16
Competition ........................................................................................................................................ 20
Financial Model Highlights .................................................................................................................. 21
Financial Model Forecast .................................................................................................................... 21
Valuation & Recommendation ........................................................................................................... 22
Appendix: Financial Statements ......................................................................................................... 24
Appendix: Management & Board of Directors ................................................................................... 26
Investment Thesis
Multiple plays on wireless market expansion
The broad story behind Baylin is of three growth opportunities within the wireless
industry: mobile, wireless infrastructure, and broadband. According to Gartner, on the
mobile front, while phone shipments are only expected to grow at a 3% CAGR from
2013 to 2017, smartphones are expected to grow much faster at 14% CAGR over the
same period. Smartphones can contain as many as seven antennas (and potentially
more in the future) while feature phones only contain between 3-4 antennas. As the
market penetration for smartphones continues to increase globally, the multiplier effect
is significant.
With smartphone penetration continuing to increase and the number of wireless
connected devices forecast by Cisco to rise to 10 billion by 2016, the wireless
infrastructure will have to grow exponentially as well to help off-load the mobile cellular
data demand. We believe this exponential growth of data traffic will drive an increasing
need for wireless carriers to add not only spectral, but also transmission capacity by
installing small cells and distributed antenna systems (DAS).
The broadband antenna opportunity is in the home, and also just outside of the home.
In the home, the proliferation of internet enabled devices (i.e. computers, mobile
devices, media players, game consoles, set-top boxes (STB), TVs, digital cameras, etc.)
means better home network equipment is needed to support the data capacity and
speed requirements of consumers. Outside the home, we are seeing carriers and
cablecos such as Shaw Communications extending broadband access from the home to
anywhere in the city.
Collectively, we estimate these markets have a total addressable market (TAM) of 7+
billion antennas annually and we expect the TAM to double by 2017.
Wrapping its arms around Samsung - Vietnam Expansion
Baylin’s relationship with Samsung goes back to 2006 with the Samsung E250. Since
then, this partnership has grown by leaps and bounds as Baylin eventually was awarded
antenna slots for all four of the Galaxy S smartphones to date, amongst the 100+
projects they work on with Samsung every year. In recent years, Samsung has been
moving its production facilities (50% according to recent reports from the Wall Street
Journal) to Vietnam. Baylin plans to use $15 million of the IPO proceeds to construct a
new manufacturing facility in Vietnam with Phase 1 expected to be completed during
3Q14. It recently finalized lease negotiations on locations only 25 minutes away from
Samsung’s biggest manufacturing plant in the world in Thai Nguyen. Baylin’s new
location in Vietnam will add capacity, add vertical integration (painting/plating) which
means Baylin gets to keep more of the gross profit dollars, and strengthen its
relationship with Samsung.
Capacity is expected to increase by 100 million antennas annually, which will bring
Baylin’s total annual antenna production capacity to over 400 million antennas,
including 300 million at its China and South Korean facilities. In addition to continuing
to supply Samsung on high profile / high volume projects (such as the Galaxy S series), in
our opinion there are plenty of other opportunities as Samsung further penetrates
emerging markets (where smartphone growth is faster). Incidentally, we believe
antenna design becomes even more critical in emerging markets as often times you are
much farther away from a cell tower (i.e. up to 10 km versus just 3 km in developed,
mature markets).
While today Samsung works with four main antenna design partners (EMW, Partron,
and Ethertronics being the other three), only Baylin’s facilities will be in such close
proximity for the time being. This could potentially be a significant share gain
opportunity as Samsung would be less likely to purchase antennas from suppliers
located in China if Baylin can also be a supplier next door. Large original equipment
manufacturers (OEM) like Samsung naturally prefer to work with supply chain vendors
located nearby (engineers can drive over in case of issues or for just-in-time and cost
effective delivery of components, reducing the need for idle inventory for the OEMs).
As we move to rear-case embedded antennas, a single vendor will be even more likely
to win all of the antennas embedded in the rear-case due to the added complexity and
design involved laser direct structuring (LDS) onto the case. We believe Baylin has the
opportunity to increase its share of Samsung’s business.
Baylin has proven vertical integration advantages – Now has the capacity to chase
new customers
Baylin is vertically integrated from design to manufacturing and has successfully
parlayed its vertical integration advantages into a strong reputation for rapid
design/prototyping, high quality and reliable antennas, and, importantly, time to market
(especially for significant product launches like the Galaxy Series). These advantages
have strengthened Baylin’s position as a major antenna designer (= bigger volume,
higher margin) for all four of the Galaxy S smartphones to date (for instance, compare
Baylin’s higher gross margin versus EMW and Partron). Baylin has continued to invest in
innovative technologies with injection molding in 2006, high speed precision stamping in
2008, an in-house high precision tool making workshop in 2009, two-shot molding
equipment in 2011, laser direct structuring equipment in 2012, and in 2014, the
construction of the Vietnam facility will add in-house painting and plating production to
further internalize its production processes.
Samsung’s phenomenal smartphone growth has kept a capital-constrained Baylin busy.
With the IPO proceeds and the planned Vietnam expansion, Baylin now has the capacity
to chase new tier 1 customers with the pending hires of additional sales resources
focused on non-Samsung opportunities.
Investment Risks
Customer concentration
As would be expected from being part of one of the largest OEM’s (Samsung) supply
chain, Baylin faces high customer concentration risk. In 2013, 79% of the Baylin’s
revenues were related to Samsung (either directly or through its subcontractor original
design manufacturers (ODM)). However, we estimate Baylin only supplies ~15% of
Samsung’s mobile phone antennas. From Samsung’s perspective, there is limited vendor
risk, it has little reliance on Baylin at current levels, and it typically takes design bids
from an exclusive list of four vendors: EMW, Partron, Ethertronics, and Baylin. We
believe there is a low probability that Samsung switches away from Baylin given their
long-term relationship and Baylin’s willingness to cater to Samsung by locating its
production and design facilities near Samsung’s.
Near-term, there is some risk. On January 7, Samsung provided guidance for its F4Q13
that came in below consensus. Revenues of 59 trillion won (+5% y/y) were 2 trillion won
below consensus, likely driven by weakness in high end smartphones. Operating profit
of 8.3 trillion won was 15% below consensus. Mobile devices account for 2/3 of
Samsung’s profits. Samsung also appears to have recently lowered its 2014 smartphone
projections from 360 million unit shipments (+20% y/y) to 330 million (+10% y/y). It is
possible Samsung’s slowdown comes primarily from developed markets where
smartphone penetration is maturing (in which case Baylin would have more exposure as
it supplies the Galaxy series). Samsung's official results and sales are expected on
January 23, 2014.
Margin risk
Related to Baylin’s customer concentration risk are pricing pressure and margin
pressure risk. Given pressure on Samsung’s operating profits, it is possible we see
Samsung seek more price concessions from its supply chain. There are mitigating
factors that help Baylin: 1) On average, total antenna costs would amount to between
$2.50-$3.50 per smartphone or ~1% of a smartphone’s bill of materials (BOM) cost.
There are arguably better places for Samsung to try and lower costs as opposed to
antennas, which are an increasingly critical component. For example, display and touch
screen represent $50-$60 of the BOM costs or 20%; 2) Rising ASPs. Technology cycles
for antenna manufacturers have varied from 3 to 5 years with newer technologies
commanding higher ASPs and margins. Older antenna types used for feature phones
made with metal element or flexible printed circuit board (PCB) technologies are still in
use. However, Baylin has been investing in new technologies, including two-shot
molding (TSMA) and most recently, laser direct structuring. These innovations have
higher antenna yields, are easier to scale production, have fewer processing steps, and
have more functionality per antenna. Baylin has upgraded production lines to LDS in
China and South Korea significantly in 2013 and plans to install ~4 more LDS lines in
Vietnam in Phase 1. Still, we would expect some pricing and margin pressure and have
modeled accordingly with Baylin’s gross margins declining in 2014.
Exhibit 1: Baylin’s Capex is Mostly Geared Toward Next Generation LDS Technology
(2014 Forecasted)
Source: Baylin Technologies Inc.
OEM internalization of antenna design and/or production
If Samsung or other key customers internalize antenna design and/or production
through the acquisition of an antenna design competitor or through internal
development there is a risk to Baylin’s revenues.
Macroeconomic risk
Baylin’s largest operating segment is mobile phone antennas, as these are linked to the
end consumer it is highly correlated to global macroeconomic health.
Illiquidity risk
Stock volatility due to illiquidity. Baylin’s post-IPO market capitalization is under $200
million and as such there is limited liquidity in the stock. The company is earnings
positive so we expect this risk to decline as its book equity and subsequent valuation
increase.
DAS adoption risk
The company has suggested it expects DAS to be the future of its revenue generation.
The proliferation of DAS is becoming more apparent as telecommunications carriers are
looking to improve services to large buildings with inherently poor wireless service. If
the adoption of DAS does not materialize as expected due to competing technology or
currently non-existent innovations, this business segment may not grow as fast as
expected.
Managing fast growth
Baylin has grown its revenue from $44 million in 2010 to $68 million in 2012, and we
forecast $81 million in 2013. Baylin is a small technology company with growth
accelerating rapidly and will be prone to the challenges of forecasting its results,
defending itself from competitive threats, and managing its growth to remain profitable
as it looks to meet customer volume demands.
Company Background
Baylin Technologies Inc. is the parent company of wholly-owned Galtronics,
headquartered in Israel. For 35 years it has designed and manufactured antennas for
mobile phones, home networking and land mobile devices, and wireless infrastructure.
It has grown sales offices in North America, Europe, and Asia, and manufacturing
centers in China and South Korea. With the funds from the IPO, it is expanding its
antenna manufacturing capacity to 400 million per year (from 300 million currently)
with a manufacturing facility in Vietnam.
Baylin was established in 1978 as Galtronics, initially with one core customer, Motorola,
in the development of custom antennas. Over the years, Baylin added several blue chip
customers to its order book including Nokia, LG, and Qualcomm. Baylin’s track record is
impressive in that they have shown an uncanny ability to adapt throughout the years by
being a significant antenna provider to the #1 phone manufacturer at different points in
time (Motorola, Nokia, and now Samsung). In the 1980s, Baylin made antennas for the
Motorola Brick phone (the first mobile phone). In the 1990s it made antennas for the
Motorola StarTAC clamshell (flip mobile) and the Nokia “2-in-1” retractable antenna
phone. In 2006, Samsung became a significant customer, first with the Samsung E250,
then eventually with the vastly popular Galaxy S series mobile phones starting in 2010.
Baylin has won antenna slots for all four of the Galaxy S smartphones to date.
The company operates in three industry segments: in 2013 we forecast mobile phones
made up 79% of its revenue, broadband at 18%, and wireless infrastructure at 3%. The
company has a clear entrenchment in mobile phone antenna sales, but in an effort to
diversify its customer base, Baylin has been expanding into the wireless infrastructure
market; catering to the wireless carriers’ need to off-load data from their cellular
networks onto distributed antenna systems and small cells, as smartphone and wireless
data consumption proliferates around the world.
Exhibit 2: Smartphones Use Up to Seven Antennas
*Note: The near field communication (NFC) antenna is usually on the back of the battery as in the
Samsung Nexus phone or on the inside of the back cover.
Source: Baylin Technologies Inc., Raymond James Ltd.
Exhibit 3: Baylin’s Innovative History
Industry Overview & Market Analysis
Multiple plays on wireless market expansion
The broad story behind Baylin is of three growth opportunities within the wireless
industry: mobile, wireless infrastructure, and broadband.
Exhibit 4: Smartphone Forecast of 14% CAGR from 2013 to 2017
Source: Gartner (October 2013 Gartner Report - Forecast Analysis Mobile Phone
Production and Semiconductors, Worldwide, 3Q13 Update), Raymond James Ltd.
Mobile – Multiplier Effect
Antennas are small but vital components of mobile devices. According to Gartner,
phone shipments will grow at a 3% CAGR from 1.9 billion phones in 2013 to 2.1 billion
phones in 2017. Within this market expansion, smartphones are expected to grow much
faster at 14% CAGR, from 1.1 billion smartphones in 2013 to 1.8 billion smartphones in
2017. While smartphones may contain as many as seven antennas (and potentially more
in the future), feature phones only contain between 3-4 antennas. As the market
penetration for smartphones continues to increase globally, the multiplier effect is
significant. Assuming an average of five antennas per smartphone and two antennas per
feature phone, we estimate a TAM of ~7 billion antennas annually in the mobile phone
space. We expect the mobile antenna TAM to double by 2017, as smartphones with
more antennas greatly outpace feature phone shipments (as of 2Q13, smartphone
shipments have outpaced feature phones). Given Baylin’s relationship with Samsung,
which currently holds a 32% global smartphone market share, we believe the company
is poised to capture an increasing share of this TAM.
Exhibit 5: Smartphone Shipments Outpaced Feature Phones in 2Q13
*Note: Years 2013 to 2017 shown as forecast
Exhibit 6: Mobile Antenna TAM Expected to Double from 2013 to 2017
*Note: Assumed smartphone (feature) antennas: 5 (2) in 2013E-14E, 6 (3) in 2015E-16E, 7 (4) in
2017E; years 2013 to 2017 shown as forecast
Wireless Infrastructure
With smartphone penetration continuing to increase and the number of wireless
connected devices rising to 10 billion by 2016, according to Cisco’s Visual Networking
Report (2013), the wireless infrastructure will have to grow exponentially as well to help
off-load the mobile cellular data demand. Cisco estimates mobile data traffic will
increase 7x from 1.6 exabytes in 2013 to 11.2 exabytes through 2017 for a CAGR of 63%,
led by data consumption shifting from low data usage voice and email, to high data
usage web and video. We believe this exponential growth of data traffic will drive an
increasing need for wireless carriers to add not only spectral, but also transmission
capacity by installing small cells and DAS.
Small cells are becoming increasingly popular given permitting and physical space issues
associated with macrocells, as well as the cost of these small cells relative to the
problems that carriers are trying to solve (small cells cost $6,000-$30,000 per site versus
$400,000 per cell site to deploy macro towers). Wireless carriers arrange macro towers
in a hexagonal grid of “cells” with each covering a radius of 1 km to 30 km. With
population density and data demands growing, we are seeing carriers increasingly
deploy small cell and DAS within macrocell networks to target crowded locations. DAS
is similar to small cells in that it diverts traffic from the cellular network to a cable
connected system backhauled to the network. DAS differs in its complexity as it is better
used in multi-carrier, multi-tenant situations with different network technologies (3G,
HSPA+, 4G LTE, Wi-Fi, and LAN) all on one system.
Exhibit 7: Small Cell or DAS deployment in Macrocell Network
Source: Raymond James & Associates
Infonetics estimates worldwide small cell units to grow from 950,000 units in 2013 to
3.3 million units in 2016, a 51% CAGR, driven mostly by growth in 4G connectivity.
Exhibit 8: 4G Small Cell Deployments will Drive the Small Cell Market
*Note: Small Cells includes microcells, picocells and public access femtocells
Source: Infonetics
DAS on the other hand will benefit the most from indoor buildings (office and
residential), as well as from deployments in large venues such as stadiums, shopping
malls, and corporate and school campuses. An amazing statistic (from Corning) is that
80% of today’s data consumption is occurring in buildings, and 70%-80% of all wireless
sessions exist indoors (Commscope’s December 9, 2013 presentation at RJ&A S4
Conference in New York), despite building materials actually inhibiting wireless signals.
Exhibit 9: Illustration of an In-Building DAS Deployment
Source: AT&T, Raymond James & Associates
DAS are being installed within building infrastructures to provide better in-building
signal coverage and data capacity. ABI Research forecasts in-building wireless spending
(IBW) will grow at 14% CAGR from 2013-2016 as antenna spending grows from $185
million in 2013 to $273 million in 2016, and outdoor DAS (oDAS) at 11% CAGR, as
antenna shipments grow from 24,000 in 2013 to 33,000 in 2016.
Exhibit 10: IBW Spending Forecast at 14% CAGR, oDAS at 11% from 2013 to 2016
Source: ABI Research, Cisco, Mobile Experts
Another datapoint, American Tower’s DAS installations between 2012 to 2013 have
shown significant acceleration, especially in international markets. To date, most of
Baylin’s wireless infrastructure sales have come from the US; however, as it grows its
carrier approvals and channel partnerships it should be able to capture a piece of the
large and growing international market.
Exhibit 11: DAS is Accelerating in International Markets
Source: American Towers, Raymond James Ltd.
We believe Baylin is well positioned to leverage the intellectual property (IP) it has built
in mobile antennas over the last 35 years to further enhance its wireless infrastructure
product portfolio. AT&T in the fall of 2012 announced its plan to roll out 1,000 DAS and
40,000 small cells to enhance its network by the end of 2015. The DAS opportunity
could include systems of a few nodes (antennas) to hundreds. Similarly, Vodafone
announced Project Spring in September 2013 a plan to use the funds acquired from the
Verizon Wireless buyout to expand its network in Europe and improve
performance/capacity. Project Spring involves over 18,000 small cells, 500 enterprise
installations, 15,000 modernized sites, 36,000 4G sites, 22,000 3G sites, 36,000 WiFi
access points and 11,000 new physical sites by March 2016. It is noteworthy that Baylin
lists both AT&T and Vodafone as customers which have tested and approved its wireless
infrastructure solutions.
To further accelerate its wireless infrastructure progress, Baylin has also been
contemplating accretive acquisitions mostly in the wireless infrastructure space to
expand geographically, acquire established relationships with wireless carriers, expand
its channel partnerships with DAS and small cell distributors, and to extend its small cell
offering from just the antenna to a full system solution.
Broadband
The broadband antenna opportunity is in the home, and also just outside of the home.
In the home, the proliferation of internet enabled devices (i.e. computers, mobile
devices, media players, game consoles, STBs, TVs, digital cameras, etc.) means better
home network equipment is needed to support the data capacity and speed
requirements of consumers. For instance, in 2011 AT&T started to add a wireless
receiver made by Cisco to sit on top of its STB to allow up to four wireless TVs around
the home (implies more antennas). Comcast, in May 2012, also released a wireless STB
(PVR) called X1 (made by Pace, a Baylin customer), and will launch the next iteration X2
later this year which will enable instant second screen viewing (i.e. watch content on
your TV and continue on your smartphone, tablet, or PC and vice versa) as well as
record your shows to the cloud, eliminating the local hard drive. Home networking
penetration has to keep pace with the increase in wireless enabled devices, especially in
the home. In 2012, Gartner estimated 47% of global households had home networks,
an increase from 32% in 2010.
Ultimately, the broadband antenna market is forecast to grow from 146 million
antennas in 2013 to 282 million antennas in 2017, a CAGR of 18%, according to market
research firms (IDC, Gartner, HIS iSuppli, Datamonitor, LEK interviews and analysis, as
presented by Baylin).
Exhibit 12: Broadband Antenna TAM Expected to Nearly Double from 2013 to 2017
Source: IDC, Gartner, HIS iSuppli, Datamonitor, LEK interviews and analysis, Baylin
Technologies Inc.
Another area for broadband expansion is also outside the home as carrier Wi-Fi hotspot
access points. Carrier Wi-Fi hotspot access points are expected to increase from ~2.4
million in 2013 to ~5.2 million locations in 2016, a 29% CAGR. To reduce subscriber
churn, Shaw Communications is ramping up a program to extend broadband access
from the home to anywhere in the city called Shaw Go Wi-Fi. Shaw broadband
customers sign in to their Shaw accounts from their mobile devices to have access to
Shaw’s carrier Wi-Fi from over 20,000 access points across its coverage areas, the data
used will count towards their home broadband data plans (which is typically in the
magnitude of 50-100x higher than typical cellular data plans). This program is still in its
infancy, as Shaw has earmarked $50 million in capital to grow its Wi-Fi coverage over
the next three years. Similarly, Comcast has its XFINITY Wi-Fi and CableWiFi alliance
hotspots which work identically to Shaw Go Wi-Fi except XFINITY utilizes home Wi-Fi
routers to send an additional public access Wi-Fi signal. This makes all Comcast XFINITY
customers’ routers hotspots for the network. Since May 2012, CableWiFi has already
grown from first implementation to 200,000 hotspots (150,000 in June 2013), a growth
rate of ~10,000 access points per month. The trade off with carrier Wi-Fi may be against
small cells as it is unrealistic both will succeed; however, Baylin is poised to benefit from
either outcome as it caters to both growth opportunities.
Customer Concentration
Mobile
As would be expected from being part of one of the largest OEM’s (Samsung) supply
chain, Baylin faces high customer concentration risk. In 2013, 79% of the Baylin’s
revenues related to Samsung (either directly or through its subcontractor ODMs).
There are other instances in the tech world where supply chain partners face high
customer concentration. Apple and Foxconn come to mind; Foxconn, as of recent
estimates, generates 60% of its revenue from Apple. Where the situation differs is when
we look at the reliance of the OEM on the vendor. Apple manufactured ~80%-90% of its
iPhone product line with Foxconn, creating a sizable risk from Apple’s perspective, while
we estimate Baylin only contributes ~15% of Samsung’s mobile phone antennas. From
Samsung’s perspective there is limited vendor risk, it has little reliance on Baylin at
current levels, and it typically takes design bids from an exclusive list of four tier 1
antenna manufacturers (EMW, Partron, Ethertronics, and Baylin). We believe there is a
low probability that Samsung switches away from Baylin given their long-term
relationship and Baylin’s willingness to cater to Samsung by locating its production and
design facilities near Samsung’s.
Near-term, there is some risk. On January 7, Samsung provided guidance for its F4Q13
that came in below consensus. Revenues of 59 trillion won (+5% y/y) were 2 trillion won
below consensus, likely driven by weakness in high end smartphones. Operating profit
of 8.3 trillion won was 15% below consensus. Mobile devices account for 2/3 of
Samsung’s profits. Samsung also appears to have recently lowered its 2014 smartphone
projections from 360 million unit shipments (+20% y/y) to 330 million (+10% y/y). It is
possible Samsung’s slow-down comes primarily from developed markets where
it supplies the Galaxy series). Samsung's official results and sales are expected on the
January 23, 2014.
Exhibit 13: Samsung Q/Q Growth Tapering as Smartphone Penetration is Maturing
Source: Gartner, Raymond James Ltd.
Longer term, the primary concern is Samsung’s longevity as the #1 smartphone OEM.
Samsung may see disruptive competition in the future which may displace it from its
market leading position (i.e. similar to Nokia/BlackBerry), and if that time comes, Baylin
will need to have a more diverse revenue base to minimize the effect through other
mobile OEMs, broadband, and wireless infrastructure. Historically, Baylin’s track record
is impressive as they have shown an uncanny ability to adapt throughout the years by
being a significant antenna provider to the #1 phone manufacturer at different points in
time (Motorola, Nokia, and now Samsung).
Baylin’s wireless infrastructure business is in its infancy (established in 2010); however,
it has already developed customer relationships with tier 1 carriers in the US including
AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, and Telstra. Also, its SISO and MIMO products are tested and
approved with several tier 1 carriers and enterprise distributors. The importance of
carrier approvals cannot be understated, especially as carriers generally make up 80% of
the wireless infrastructure market and distributors the remaining 20%. As Baylin’s
wireless infrastructure segment matures it will need to build out its channel
partnerships to better deliver its solutions to carriers and enterprises (i.e. Commscope
has 3,000 channel partners).
SpiderCloud Wireless is also a new small cell customer for Baylin. In November at the
Telecom.com LTE North American Awards 2013, SpiderCloud Wireless won the Best LTE
Radio Access Network (RAN) Product (with Baylin’s antenna inside) with its SpiderCloud
Wireless Multi-Access and Scalable Small Cell System for Medium to Large Enterprise
Customers.
Broadband
Baylin has worked with Cisco since 2007. In March 2013, Belkin acquired Cisco’s home
networking division, though Baylin continues to have a relationship with Cisco supplying
antennas for its small business product access point division. A new relationship is being
developed with Belkin to continue supplying antennas for its new Linksys home
networking division.
Geographic Breakdown
Baylin has a global presence in China, South Korea, and soon Vietnam to serve its key
customer Samsung; Singapore and Malaysia to serve Motorola; and Canada and the US
for its wireless infrastructure, as well as for key broadband customers Cisco and Belkin.
In Europe it is headquartered in Israel with a sales office in Sweden to mainly deliver
broadband and wireless infrastructure products to its European customers. 93% of
Baylin’s 2012 revenue was generated in the Far East, which largely consists of sales to
Samsung, while the remainder of sales was in North America at 6% and Israel at 1%.
Exhibit 14: Baylin’s Offices, R&D and Manufacturing Centers – Vietnam Expected 3Q14
Product Portfolio
Mobile
Antennas are not a commodity; rather, they are very detailed electronic components
which are the critical connection necessary to enable all the primary functionality of
wireless voice, data, and radio enabled devices. Mobile antennas are used in feature
phones, smartphones, tablets, laptops, cameras, wireless wearables, etc. Baylin
manufactures both embedded internal antennas and external antennas using a variety
of technologies including metal, metal element + carrier, and flexible PCB. Two-shot
molded and laser direct structuring are currently leading the way as the technologies
used to manufacture antennas. LDS provides added nimbleness to Baylin as it can easily
change from one specification to another. As devices get smaller, Baylin is positioned to
provide antennas which are integrated into the case of the mobile and broadband
devices.
Exhibit 15: Baylin Stays on the Leading Edge with Newer TSMA and LDS Technologies
Exhibit 16: Examples of External and Internal Antennas
Exhibit 17: Examples of Antennas Inside the Case vs. Antennas Integrated into the Case
In smartphones, antennas are used in as many as seven functions, including digital voice
calling (Global System for Mobile or GSM), global positioning systems (GPS), Wi-Fi data,
Bluetooth connectivity, near field communication, 3G cellular data, and 4G LTE/MIMO
cellular data. On average, total antenna cost would amount to between $2.50-$3.50 per
smartphone or less than 1% of a smartphone’s bill of materials cost.
DAS are being installed within building infrastructures to provide better in-building
signal coverage and data capacity. Baylin offers 12 in-building DAS antennas, small cell,
and heterogeneous network options through its PEAR product line of SISO and MIMO
solutions, five outdoor DAS solutions, and four base station antennas.
Exhibit 18: Three of Baylin’s Internally Manufactured DAS Products
Baylin antennas have up to 47% more data throughput (performance) and up to 90%
coverage compared to 45%-60% coverage from its competitors (at 700 MHz and 85 dB).
In a benchmarking test in 2012 against three competitors, Baylin’s MIMO DAS antennas
generally outperformed. Competitor #1 was the higher quality antenna on the market in
2012, however on average Baylin performed 11% better. Competitor #2 was the most
deployed antenna in North America in 2012, however on average Baylin performed 10%
better. And competitor #3, Commscope’s Andrew brand, performed on average 85%
worse than Baylin’s MIMO technology. Further the benchmark heat tests show Baylin
antennas have more consistent radiation patterns enabling better performance in all
directions than competitors which tend to have peak performance in a single direction.
Exhibit 19: Benchmark Tests Show Baylin’s MIMO Antennas Outperform Comps
*Note: Competitor 1 was the higher quality antenna on the market in 2012. Competitor 2 was the
most deployed antenna in North America in 2012. Competitor 3 is Commscope. dBi is a measure
of antenna performance measuring efficiency of converting electricity into a RF signal
Broadband
Broadband connections serve as a bridge between mobile devices and the carrier
network (through Wi-Fi routers and access points), an enabler of wireless devices such
as set-top boxes and M2M smart home connectivity devices (connected lights, energy
control, smart meters), and two-way communications through land mobile radios.
Baylin provides unique antenna designs which allow antennas to be enclosed within the
case of the product without any loss in connectivity. Many broadband devices contain 2
to 10 antennas for both sending and receiving wireless signals; this opens the antenna
opportunity to significant growth. For some perspective, a Linksys router with six
antennas retails for $200, while a router with two antennas retails for $50. Baylin is paid
~$1 per antenna or ~3%-4% of the average price of a router; routers with 10 antennas
are more prominent in enterprise-grade routers. In 2012, Baylin generated $7.4 million
in revenue from Linksys.
Exhibit 20: Baylin is in Linksys Routers
*Note: Baylin does business as Galtronics
Competition
Baylin is vertically integrated from design to manufacturing and has successfully
parlayed its vertical integration advantages into a strong reputation for rapid
design/prototyping, high quality and reliable antennas, and importantly time to market
(especially for significant product launches like the Galaxy Series). Baylin’s
manufacturing facility works at high volumes, producing approximately ~200 million
antennas and integrated products per annum.
Every year, Baylin develops over 100 new projects which are then
moved to mass production. Baylin’s extensive R&D program has so
far resulted in 71 patents (25 granted, 46 pending) to protect its
innovations. In recent years, Baylin has also been investing in new
machines and production lines. Baylin utilizes every leading edge
production technique including plastic injection and high speed,
high precision metal element stamping tool capabilities, two-shot
molding tools, in-mold labeling (IML) forming and cutting tools, and
is investing heavily in laser direct structuring technology over the
next 5 years for rear case embedded antennas.
In the near future, we believe a number of antennas, e.g. 3G, LTE,
Bluetooth, Wi-Fi will be increasingly integrated into the rear case for
smartphones – which then allows for a thinner, lighter and more
efficient smartphone in terms of circuitry design. For instance,
according to press reports, Samsung is highly likely to adopt the
case with built-in antennas for some models of the Galaxy S5 series
scheduled to be released next year. Currently, the main technology
for cases with built-in antennas is LDS. When rear cases are made, a
special additive is mixed in the resin. When this material comes in
contact with laser, oxidation will occur. Laser is used to pattern
antennas in the rear case, and the patterns are plated. With rearcase embedded antennas, a single vendor will more likely win all of
the antennas embedded in the rear-case due to the added
complexity and design involved in molding antennas into the case.
This could potentially be a significant share gain opportunity as
currently Baylin focuses on winning the main antennas, however as
we move to rear case embedded antennas, we believe Baylin will be
able to capture a larger portion of the mobile TAM.
Mobile competitors include: TE Connectivity, Molex, Ethertronics,
Shenzhen Sunway Communications, SkyCross, EMW, Amphenol,
Partron, and Pulse Electronics
Wireless infrastructure competitors include: Kathrein Antennen
Electronics, CSS Antenna, Commscope, CellMax, Ethertronics, AlcatelLucent, Amphenol Antenna Solutions, Corning, TE Connectivity,
Comba Telecom Systems, and Axell Wireless
Broadband competitors include: Wistron NeWeb, Ethertronics, Amphenol Antenna
Solutions, and Laird Technologies
Financial Model Highlights
IFRS Model Presentation
Effective January 1, 2010, the company adopted IFRS accounting standards, which
include some differences in financial statement presentation and accounting standards
compared to Israeli GAAP accounting standards.
Currency Dynamics
Weakening of foreign currencies relative to the US dollar adversely affects the US dollar
value of sales and earnings. In reaction to weakening non-US currency movements, the
company may increase local pricing to offset the currency losses, however if competitive
pressures constrain a price increase the company will be adversely affected.
Revenue
Even though revenue is generated from three business segments, it is largely reported
as a single value with breakdowns of the contribution from each of mobile phones,
wireless infrastructure, and broadband. As a components vendor it has no recurring
revenue stream to stabilize the top-line, which may result in lumpy revenues from
quarter to quarter.
Seasonality
Since revenue is currently highly skewed toward the mobile phone segment, there is a
high seasonality for the company related to the product cycles of its OEMs. In the case
of Samsung, it typically releases a wide range of feature phones and smartphones
throughout the year, however they have historically released their flagship Galaxy S
phones in 2Q (April-June). This results in a stronger 1H over 2H. In wireless
infrastructure, wireless carriers tend to have higher capital spending in 4Q in meeting
budgeted expenditures, while lower capital expenditures in 1Q as new spending
budgets slowly ramp.
Financial Model Forecast
2013 Forecasts
We are modeling $81 million in revenue, representing 18% y/y growth, in-line with the
growth of Samsung’s mobile devices (YTD: +17% y/y units growth). Samsung’s Galaxy S4
(Baylin was the lead antenna designer) was off to a strong start earlier in the year but
that momentum has started to slow following the iPhone 5s release in September and
ahead of the Galaxy S5 next year. Subsequently, we have baked this seasonality into our
forecasts with a weaker 4Q13. We model wireless infrastructure at $2.5 million in
revenue, up from almost nothing in 2012 ($165k). Broadband is expected to be flat as
Linksys transitions from Cisco to Belkin.
We forecast gross margin for 2013 to be ~33%, flat versus 2012. Wireless infrastructure
has higher margins at ~45% compared to ~35% in the mobile and broadband segments.
As wireless infrastructure grows and becomes a larger portion of Baylin’s revenue, we
expect gross margin to benefit. Baylin also continues to invest in newer technologies
(that comes with higher ASPs and higher margins such as LDS) which helps offset some
pricing pressure. As the revenue base grows, we expect the company to gain scale
advantages in its operating expenses. We forecast EBITDA of $12 million (+39% y/y) and
EPS of $0.36.
2014 Forecasts
We are modeling $84 million in revenue, representing just 3% y/y growth (Mobile: flat
y/y). Samsung appears to have recently lowered its 2014 smartphone shipment
projections materially from 360 million unit shipments (+20% y/y) to 330 million (+10%
y/y). It is possible Samsung’s slowdown comes primarily from developed markets where
it supplies the Galaxy series). As a result, we have been more conservative and forecast
0% growth for Baylin mobile segment. There is room for upside later on this year
depending on when contribution from Vietnam kicks in (currently C4Q14 expected).
1Q14 should also be weaker than normal given the Chinese New Year and ahead of the
Galaxy S5 launch. We model wireless infrastructure growing 80% y/y to $4.5 million in
revenue. Broadband is expected to grow incrementally, especially as Baylin continues to
bid for additional business with Belkin. We forecast gross margin for 2014 to be under
pressure (~31.5% verus 33% in 2013) as Samsung’s slowdown squeezes the entire
supply chain. Operating expenses should increase given this is the first full year of Baylin
as a public company and as it expands in Vietnam. As a result, we forecast EBITDA of
$10 million and EPS of $0.36 (flat y/y).
2015 Forecasts
With a full year contribution from Vietnam, we forecast a reacceleration in growth in
2015 with $99 million in revenues (+19% y/y). We forecast gross margins to inch up
slightly (higher margins from infrastructure and Vietnam, offset by ongoing pricing
pressure on the smartphone antenna business). We forecast EBITDA of $15 million
(+50% y/y) and EPS of $0.58 (+61% y/y).
Valuation & Recommendation
Baylin Technologies completed its IPO on November 27 2013, offering 6,253,125
common shares at C$8.00 per share. Our model assumes IPO net proceeds of $44
million recorded in 4Q13. Our $9.00 target is based on 8.7x 2015E EBITDA or 15x 2015E
EPS, in-line with its peers’ current year average trading multiples (8.9x EBITDA and 14.5x
EPS). Despite the expected slowdown in its Samsung’s business, we still forecast Baylin
to have a higher than average EPS CAGR of +26% over the next two years (vs. peers of
+10%), which should offset its low liquidity and high customer concentration.
Exhibit 21: Comparable Companies
Antenna Comparables
A ll values in C$ mlns, except per share data o r o therwise stated.
Company
TE Connectivity
Partron
Amphenol
Laird
Anaren
CommScope
EMW
Pulse Electronics
Shenzhen Sunway
Price
16-Jan-14
Mkt. Cap.
(C$ mlns)
US$ 55.55
KRW 14,250
US$ 91.87
£3.16
US$ 27.94
US$ 18.68
KRW 3,240
US$ 3.29
CNY 20.13
$25,494
$757
$16,242
$1,386
$369
$2,971
$45
$26
$498
Group Average (Excl. High/Low)
Baylin Technologies
C$ 7.20
*Assumes $44mln net proceeds
$135
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
C13E C14E C15E C13E C14E C15E
1.9 1.8 1.7 10.1 9.0
0.8 0.7 0.7
6.1 5.3
3.4 3.2 3.0 15.1 13.8
1.8 1.7 1.6 11.4 10.4
1.8 1.7 n.m. 8.6 7.1
1.6 1.5 1.5
8.1 8.0
n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m.
8.5
5.0
12.7
9.4
n.m.
7.6
n.m.
n.m.
n.m.
P/E
C13E C14E C15E
Growth (13-15E)
Rev. EBITDA EPS
17.3
7.5
24.2
17.8
20.2
11.7
n.m.
n.m.
n.m.
5%
7%
7%
5%
n.m.
3%
n.m.
n.m.
n.m.
9%
11%
9%
10%
n.m.
4%
n.m.
n.m.
n.m.
14%
2%
11%
17%
n.m.
6%
n.m.
n.m.
n.m.
19%
12%
22%
14%
18%
19%
14%
4%
(23%)
33%
19%
31%
39%
37%
34%
29%
23%
15%
14.6
6.8
21.9
15.6
16.0
11.9
n.m.
n.m.
n.m.
13.2
7.1
19.5
13.0
n.m.
10.3
n.m.
n.m.
n.m.
EBITDA% GM%
TTM
TTM
1.9
1.7
1.7
9.9
8.9
8.6
16.4 14.5 12.6
6%
8%
10%
11%
29%
1.2
1.1
1.0
8.0
9.6
6.4
19.8 20.1 12.5
11%
12%
26%
15%
33%
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
C13E C14E C15E C13E C14E C15E
P/E
C13E C14E C15E
Growth (13E-15E)
Rev. EBITDA EPS
13.8
10.9
15.6
23.5
n.m.
24.2
12.6
19.2
Other RF and Component Supplier Comparables
A ll values in C$ mlns, except per share data o r o therwise stated.
Company
Price
16-Jan-14
Mkt. Cap.
(C$ mlns)
RF Micro Devices
Broadcom
Semtech
Analog Devices
TriQuint Semi
JDS Uniphase
Skyworks
Avago Tech
US$ 4.84
US$ 29.31
US$ 24.14
US$ 49.82
US$ 8.52
US$ 12.12
US$ 28.62
US$ 55.43
$1,521
$18,512
$1,817
$17,269
$1,526
$3,173
$5,951
$15,324
Group Average (Excl. High/Low)
Baylin Technologies
C$ 7.20
$135
1.1
2.0
2.9
4.5
1.5
1.4
2.7
5.0
1.0
1.9
3.0
4.4
1.3
1.3
2.4
4.3
1.0
1.8
2.7
4.1
1.3
1.2
2.2
3.9
8.2 5.8 5.0
8.7 9.1 10.5
9.3 9.7 8.5
13.2 12.3 10.8
11.5 7.3 n.m.
11.4 8.5 7.1
9.0 7.8 7.0
14.1 11.7 11.0
1.9
1.8
1.6
7.9
6.8
1.2
1.1
1.0
8.0
9.6
9.0
11.7
15.9
21.1
17.9
16.5
10.9
16.2
7.2
10.8
12.1
18.5
15.2
13.1
10.0
13.7
9%
5%
4%
5%
9%
7%
10%
13%
29%
(9%)
5%
11%
n.m.
27%
14%
13%
39%
1%
13%
13%
206%
36%
12%
18%
10%
16%
26%
34%
9%
9%
25%
30%
33%
50%
66%
64%
30%
46%
43%
50%
6.3
12.1 11.1
9.4
6%
10%
16%
15%
36%
6.4
19.8 20.1 12.5
11%
12%
26%
15%
33%
Note: Estimates for BYL are from Raymond James Ltd., all other estimates are consensus from Capital IQ
Source: Company Reports, Capital IQ, Raymond James Ltd.
EBITDA% GM%
TTM
TTM
Appendix: Financial Statements
Baylin Technologies
Income Statement
Revenues ('000s)
Cost of revenues
Gross profit
% Gross Margin
Operating expenses:
Selling and marketing expenses
Research and development expenses
General and administrative expenses
Other expenses (income), net
EBIT: Operating income (loss)
Finance income
Finance expense
EBT: Income (loss) before income taxes
Income taxes
Income (loss) from continuing operations
Translations adjustments
Loss from discontinued operations, net
Net income (loss)
F2010
44,266
27,289
16,977
38.4%
F2011
50,297
30,121
20,176
40.1%
F2012
68,709
45,785
22,924
33.4%
F1Q13
17,695
11,881
5,814
32.9%
F2Q13
28,158
17,665
10,493
37.3%
F3Q13
19,954
14,188
5,766
28.9%
F4Q13E
15,270
10,344
4,926
32.3%
F2013E
81,077
54,078
26,999
33.3%
F2014E
83,509
57,204
26,305
31.5%
F2015E
99,376
67,277
32,098
32.3%
2,850
7,485
7,039
586
17,960
(983)
230
(1,521)
(2,274)
198
(2,472)
2,550
7,117
6,936
(377)
16,226
3,950
373
(1,230)
3,093
475
2,618
2,644
6,588
7,320
(90)
16,462
6,462
44
(1,436)
5,070
557
4,513
(3,586)
(6,058)
(5,179)
(2,561)
(3,137)
1,376
507
1,660
1,764
28
3,959
1,855
36
(299)
1,592
240
1,352
0
0
1,352
731
1,865
2,119
115
4,830
5,663
18
(322)
5,359
1,038
4,321
0
0
4,321
682
1,774
1,813
(83)
4,186
1,580
158
(584)
1,154
256
898
134
0
1,032
796
1,917
2,006
(60)
4,659
266
138
(300)
104
0
104
0
0
104
2,716
7,216
7,702
0
17,634
9,364
350
(1,505)
8,209
1,534
6,675
134
0
6,809
3,173
7,516
8,351
0
19,040
7,265
350
0
7,615
914
6,701
0
0
6,701
4,074
7,155
8,944
0
20,173
11,925
350
0
12,275
1,473
10,802
0
0
10,802
0.11
0.11
0.35
0.06
0.01
0.36
0.36
0.58
12475
12475
12475
12475
12475
12475
18728
18728
18728
18728
18728
18728
18728
18728
18728
18728
864
598
EPS
Basic shares (000's)
Diluted shares (000's)
EBITDA
Depreciation & Amortization
1,350
2,333
5,680
1,730
8,623
2,161
2,358
503
6,243
580
2,499
919
11,964
2,600
9,965
2,700
14,925
3,000
F2010
F2011
F2012
F1Q13
F2Q13
F3Q13
F4Q13E
F2013E
F2014E
F2015E
Margin Analysis
Gross Margin %
38%
40%
33%
33%
37%
34%
32%
33%
32%
32%
Selling and marketing expenses
Research and development expenses
General and administrative expenses
Other expenses (income), net
Finance income
Finance expense
6%
17%
16%
1%
1%
-3%
5%
14%
14%
-1%
1%
-2%
3.8%
9.6%
10.7%
-0.1%
0.1%
-2.1%
2.9%
9.4%
10.0%
0.2%
0.2%
-1.7%
2.6%
6.6%
7.5%
0.4%
0.1%
-1.1%
3.4%
8.9%
9.1%
-0.4%
0.8%
-2.9%
5.2%
12.6%
13.1%
-0.4%
0.9%
-2.0%
3.4%
8.9%
9.5%
0.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
3.8%
9.0%
10.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
4.1%
7.2%
9.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Income taxes
EBITDA Margin %
Depreciation & Amortization
9%
3%
5.3%
-15%
11%
3.4%
-11%
13%
3.1%
-15%
13%
2.8%
-19%
22%
2.1%
15%
13%
4.6%
0%
6%
3.9%
15%
14.8%
3.0%
12%
11.9%
2.5%
12%
15.0%
2.5%
Baylin Technologies
Balance Sheet
Assets ('000s)
Cash and cash equivalents
Trade receivables, net + other A/R
Loan to related party
Inventories
Property, plant and equipment
Lease deposits
Intangible asset
Loans to related party
Deferred taxes
Other non-current assets
Total Assets
F2010
F2011
F2012
F2013E
F2014E
F2015E
6,357
6,118
0
3,071
15,879
507
900
385
121
215
33,553
3,302
12,773
0
4,641
16,570
442
675
365
274
46
39,088
6,997
15,565
150
5,195
13,680
563
0
1,521
530
0
44,201
51,217
18,881
150
6,075
17,566
563
0
0
625.4
0
95,077
26,325
19,447
150
7,836
31,536
563
0
0
644
0
86,502
35,818
23,142
150
9,216
30,524
563
0
0
767
0
100,179
Liabilities & Equity
Debt (Credit & Loans from banks, shareholders)
Trade payables + other A/P
Income tax payable
Deferred taxes
Other long term-liabilities
Total Liabilities
Total Equity
18,635
6,183
1,196
83
2,887
28,984
4,569
15,411
11,367
553
200
3,272
30,803
8,285
16,580
13,986
646
200
3,227
34,639
9,562
14,727
16,298
715
236
3,227
35,203
59,874
0
0
15,672
18,432
784
853
243.08 289.2652
3,227
3,227
19,926
22,801
66,576
77,378
Total Liabilities and Equity
33,553
39,088
44,201
95,077
86,502
100,179
F2010
(2,472)
2,333
1,291
0
(85)
(1,236)
161
(8)
(1,251)
1,897
(3,156)
F2011
2,618
1,730
857
(181)
(593)
(1,164)
249
3,516
(1,194)
1,352
970
F2012
4,513
2,161
1,392
0
(163)
(1,160)
(19)
6,724
(1,145)
1,498
4,081
F2013E
6,675
2,600
1,392
0
(163)
(1,160)
(59)
9,285
(1,884)
6,486
915
F2014E
6,701
2,700
1,392
0
(163)
(1,160)
(12)
9,459
(2,953)
16,670
(10,165)
F2015E
10,802
3,000
1,392
0
(163)
(1,160)
(76)
13,795
(2,315)
1,988
9,492
4,300
(479)
7,386
(3,430)
490
1,841
43,637
(1,853)
(14,727)
271
936
429
5,355
185
6,597
1,521
44,220
0
(24,892)
Baylin Technologies
Cash flow Summary
Net Income ('000s)
+ Depreciation and amortization
+ Finance expense, net
+ Gain from sale of property, plant and equipment
+ Income taxes & Taxes Paid
+ Interest received (paid)
+/- Other
Operating Cash Flow
+ Change in W/C
- Capex
Free Cash Flow
- Acquisitions (Sales)
- Common Dividends
+ Equity Raised
+ Debt Increase (Decr)
+ Prefs increase
+/- Other
Change in Cash from continued operations
0
9,492
Appendix: Management & Board of Directors
Management
Name
Ephraim Ulmer
Yuval Katzir
Matti
Martiskainen
Ben Bar
Shaul
Montgomery
Title
Summary
President, CEO,
and Director
Ulmer joined Baylin in 1993 and has spent his entire 20 year career at the
company. Ulmer's proficiency is in both engineering and business management,
with a degree in business management from the University of Derby (UK) and a
degree in mechanical engineering from Handasaim School (Israel). From 2005 to
2012, he was based in China as the GM of Galtronics China and later President
of Galtronics Asia where he led the growth of Baylin's key business geography.
Ulmer has been the President and CEO of Baylin since August 2010.
Interim CFO &
Controller
Katzir joined Baylin in 2007 as the Company’s Corporate Financial Controller.
Prior to this, Katzir served three years as a CFO at an Israeli company where he
specialized in a wide variety of governmental projects. Katzir was engaged in an
accounting practice with PWC Israel from 2002 to 2005 where he advised
publicly-listed companies in Israel and the United States and gained experience
with IFRS. Katzir became an Israeli Certified Public Accountant in 2004.
CTO
Martiskainen joined Baylin in 1986. Martiskainen has played a lead engineering
role for Baylin, establishing a design center in Korea and directly contributing to
~40 patents. Martiskainen is conducting research to increase the data capacity
and scale frequencies of wide band antennas. Martiskainen holds a Bachelor of
Arts in radio frequency engineering from the University of Helsingin Teknillinen
Opisto.
EVP Sales &
Marketing
Bar joined Baylin in April 2013 bringing international and cultural business
knowledge in mid and high tech industries. Prior to coming to Baylin, Bar was in
senior sales and marketing positions at Amida a global advanced water systems
company, Tandra Pro in Hong Kong and Orbit FR in Israel, an antenna solutions
provider for aerospace, telecom and the automotive industry.
Montgomery joined Baylin's subsidiary Galtronics China in 2011, bringing 25
General Manager - years of senior management experience for the manufacturing industry, large
Galtronics China scale projects and international sales management. Montgomery is a key to
ensuring Baylin's largest factory in China is functioning optimally.
Directors
Name
Jeffrey Royer
Randy Dewey
Stockwell Day
Douglas Jones
Barry Reiter
Don Simmonds
Harold Wolkin
Title
Summary
Chairman
Royer is by far the largest shareholder of Baylin with over 50% of shares. Royer
has been a Director of Shaw Communications since 1995, as well he serves on
the Boards of several private companies and not-for-profit organizations.
Vice Chairman
Dewey is the President of Navistone Financial, a management consulting firm.
Dewey sits on the Board of Jameson Bank, Galtronics China, SymHome, RCI
Capital, WesternOne Inc, and Medimor. Previously he was the CEO of SuomiTV
Finland, a media and broadcast corporation.
Director
As a Director, Day is a strategic advisor and consultant. Having served on the
provincial and federal levels of the Canadian government for over 25 years, he
brings political relationships with Asian governments with him. Day also serves
on the Boards of Telus Corp which brings a relationship with the wireless carrier
to the forefront.
Director
Jones brings four decades of communications industry experience, in Canada,
the United States and Europe, in RF network development, sales and marketing,
acquisitions, product development, and manufacturing. Jones has 33 years of
experience with Motorola in all aspects of the business including Canadian Land
Mobile operations, and ten years with Sinclair Technologies, a manufacturer of
antennas and RF components, as President and CEO. Jones has provided
consulting and advisory services to communications industry since 2003.
Director
Reiter is a lawyer by profession, bringing experience in corporate governance,
finanace and development. His current Board roles include NexgenRx Inc.,
HKMB HUB International (Industry Advisory Council) and the Executive
Committee of Ontario Chapter of Institute of Corporate Directors, and a
number of former Board roles. These positions have provided Mr. Reiter with
hands-on experience with issues ranging from Board composition,
development, evaluation, succession, protection and compensation, to major
corporate transactions, and friendly and hostile takeover bids and proxy
contests.
Director
Simmonds is the Chairman and CEO of CTS, a CRTC regulated Canadian
television broadcaster. He also founded the private equity company which
incubated Clearnet Communications (sold to Telus in 2001). Simmonds was
inducted into the Canadian Telecommunications Hall of Fame which speaks
volumes to the experience and expertise he brings to Baylin.
Director
Wolkin brings siginficant capital markets experience and relationships to Baylin
having worked in equity research and investment banking at BMO and Dundee
for over 30 years. As well, Wolkin formerly served as the President of the CFA
society of Toronto.
Company Citations
Company Name
Alcatel-Lucent
American Tower
Amphenol Corp.
Analog Devices, Inc.
Anaren, Inc.
Apple Inc.
AT&T Inc.
Avago Technologies Ltd.
Bank of Montreal
BlackBerry
Broadcom Corporation
Cisco Systems
Comcast Corp.
CommScope Holding Company, Inc.
Corning Inc.
Dundee Corp.
JDS Uniphase
Kyocera Corp.
Molex, Inc.
Motorola Solutions, Inc.
NexgenRx Inc.
Nokia
Pulse Electronics Corp.
QUALCOMM, Inc.
RF Micro Devices
Samsung Electronics
Semtech Corporation
Shaw Communications
Skyworks Solutions
TE Connectivity Ltd.
Telstra Corp. Ltd.
TELUS Corp.
TriQuint Semiconductor, Inc.
Verizon Communications
Vodafone
WesternOne Inc.
Ticker
ALU
AMT
APH
ADI
ANEN
AAPL
T
AVGO
BMO
BBRY
BRCM
CSCO
CMCSA
COMM
GLW
DC.A
JDSU
KYO
MOLX
MSI
NXG.V
NOK
PULS
QCOM
RFMD
SSNHY
SMTC
SJR
SWKS
TEL
TLS
TU
TQNT
VZ
VOD
Exchange
NYSE
NYSE
NYSE
NASDAQ
NASDAQ
NASDAQ
NYSE
NASDAQ
NYSE
NASDAQ
NASDAQ
NASDAQ
NASDAQ
NASDAQ
NYSE
TSX
NASDAQ
NYSE
NASDAQ
NYSE
TSXV
NYSE
NYSE
NASDAQ
NASDAQ
Currency
US$
US$
Closing Price
4.20
83.27
US$
49.82
US$
US$
554.25
33.96
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
8.56
29.31
22.78
53.54
18.68
US$
12.12
US$
65.81
US$
7.94
US$
US$
74.72
4.84
NASDAQ
NYSE
NASDAQ
NYSE
NYSE
NYSE
NASDAQ
NYSE
LSE
US$
24.14
US$
28.62
US$
US$
US$
p
34.31
8.52
48.53
237.20
RJ Rating
3
1
NC
1
NC
1
3
NC
NC
3
3
2
1
2
NC
NC
3
NC
NC
3
NC
4
NC
3
1
NC
2
NC
1
NC
NC
3
3
2
2
WEQ
TSX
C$
7.62
2
RJ Entity
RJ & Associates
RJ & Associates
RJ & Associates
RJ & Associates
RJ & Associates
RJ LTD.
RJ & Associates
RJ & Associates
RJ & Associates
RJ & Associates
RJ & Associates
RJ & Associates
RJ & Associates
RJ & Associates
RJ & Associates
RJ & Associates
RJ & Associates
RJ & Associates
RJ & Associates
RJ & Associates
RJ Euro Equities
SAS
RJ LTD.
Notes: Prices are as of the most recent close on the indicated exchange and may not be in US$. See Disclosure section for
rating definitions. Stocks that do not trade on a U.S. national exchange may not be registered for sale in all U.S. states. NC=not
covered.
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over the next twelve months. Outperform (MO2) Expected to appreciate and produce a total return of between 15.0% and 25.0% over
the next twelve months. Market Perform (MP3) Expected to perform in line with the underlying country index. Underperform (MU4)
Expected to underperform the underlying country index. Suspended (S) The rating and price target have been suspended temporarily.
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outperform the Stoxx 600 over the next 6 to 12 months. Outperform (2) Expected to appreciate and outperform the Stoxx 600 over the
next 12 months. Market Perform (3) Expected to perform generally in line with the Stoxx 600 over the next 12 months. Underperform (4)
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Suitability Categories (SR): Total Return (TR) Lower risk equities possessing dividend yields above that of the S&P 500 and greater
stability of principal. Growth (G) Low to average risk equities with sound financials, more consistent earnings growth, at least a small
dividend, and the potential for long-term price appreciation. Aggressive Growth (AG)
Medium or higher risk equities of companies in
fast growing and competitive industries, with less predictable earnings and acceptable, but possibly more leveraged balance sheets. High
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RATING DISTRIBUTIONS
Coverage Universe Rating Distribution
Investment Banking Distribution
RJL
RJA
RJ LatAm
RJEE
RJL
RJA
RJ LatAm
RJEE
Strong Buy and Outperform (Buy)
63%
50%
50%
44%
40%
23%
0%
0%
Market Perform (Hold)
36%
44%
50%
37%
22%
10%
0%
0%
Underperform (Sell)
1%
6%
0%
19%
33%
2%
0%
0%
RAYMOND JAMES RELATIONSHIP DISCLOSURES
Raymond James Ltd. or its affiliates expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from all
companies under research coverage within the next three months.
Company Name
Disclosure
Raymond James Ltd - the analyst and/or associate has viewed the material operations of Baylin
Technologies Inc.
Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the last 12
months with respect to Baylin Technologies Inc.
Raymond James Ltd. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months with respect
Company Name
Disclosure
to Baylin Technologies Inc.
Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within the last 12
months with respect to Baylin Technologies Inc.
Raymond James Ltd. makes a market in the securities of Baylin Technologies Inc.
STOCK CHARTS, TARGET PRICES, AND VALUATION METHODOLOGIES
Valuation Methodology: The Raymond James methodology for assigning ratings and target prices includes a number of qualitative and
quantitative factors including an assessment of industry size, structure, business trends and overall attractiveness; management
effectiveness; competition; visibility; financial condition, and expected total return, among other factors. These factors are subject to
change depending on overall economic conditions or industry- or company-specific occurrences.
Target Prices: The information below indicates our target price and rating changes for BYL stock over the past three years.
Valuation Methodology: We value Baylin Technologies on a EV/EBITDA and P/E multiple basis relative to peers.
RISK FACTORS
General Risk Factors: Following are some general risk factors that pertain to the projected target prices included on Raymond James
research: (1) Industry fundamentals with respect to customer demand or product / service pricing could change and adversely impact
expected revenues and earnings; (2) Issues relating to major competitors or market shares or new product expectations could change
investor attitudes toward the sector or this stock; (3) Unforeseen developments with respect to the management, financial condition or
accounting policies or practices could alter the prospective valuation.
Technology & Communications - IT Hardware
Companies in the Communication Technology sector face intense global competition, component supply issues, rapid technological
change, patent infringement litigation, labour strife and macroeconomic pressures effecting demand.
Risks - Baylin Technologies Inc.
Customer concentration risk. As would be expected from being part of one of the largest Original Equipment Manufacturer’s or OEM’s
(Samsung) supply chain, Baylin faces high customer concentration risk. If Samsung slows down from developed markets where
smartphone penetration is maturing, Baylin would have more exposure as it supplies the Galaxy series.
Margin risk. Related to Baylin’s customer concentration risk is pricing pressure and margin pressure risk. Given pressure on Samsung’s
operating profits, it is possible we see Samsung seek more price concessions from its supply chain.
OEM internalization of antenna design and/or production. If Samsung or other key customers internalize antenna design and/or
production through the acquisition of an antenna design competitor or through internal development, there is a risk to Baylin’s revenues.
Macroeconomic risk. Baylin’s largest operating segment is mobile phone antennas, as these are linked to the end consumer it is highly
correlated to global macro-economic health.
Illiquidity risk. Stock volatility due to illiquidity. Baylin’s post IPO market capitalization is under $200 million market capitalization and as
such there is limited liquidity in the stock.
DAS adoption risk. Baylin has suggested it expects DAS to be the future of its revenue generation. The proliferation of DAS is becoming
more apparent as telecommunications carriers are looking to improve services to large buildings with inherently poor wireless service. If
the adoption of DAS does not materialize as expected due to competing technology or currently non-existent innovations, this business
segment may not grow as fast as expected.
Managing fast growth. Baylin is a small technology company with growth accelerating rapidly. Baylin will be prone to the challenges of
forecasting its results, defending itself from competitive threats and managing its growth to remain profitable as it looks to meet
customer volume demands.
Additional Risk and Disclosure information, as well as more information on the Raymond James rating system and suitability
categories, is available for Raymond James at rjcapitalmarkets.com/Disclosures/index and for Raymond James Limited at
www.raymondjames.ca/researchdisclosures.
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416.777.4915
416.777.4928
VANCOUVER (1.800.667.2899)
SCOT ATKINSON, CFA
NICK POCRNIC
TERRI MCEWAN (ASSISTANT)
604.659.8225
604.659.8230
604.659.8228
MONTREAL (514.350.4450 | 1.866.350.4455)
INDUSTRIAL & TRANSPORTATION
BASE METALS & MINERALS | IRON ORE
ADAM LOW, CFA
TRACY REYNOLDS (ASSOCIATE)
BASE & PRECIOUS METALS
ALEX TERENTIEW, MBA, P.GEO
ROSS YAKOVLEV, CA, MBA (ASSOCIATE)
PRECIOUS METALS
PHIL RUSSO
LUC TROIANI (ASSOCIATE)
PRECIOUS METALS
CHRIS THOMPSON, M.SC. (ENG), P.GEO
BRIAN MARTIN (ASSOCIATE)
URANIUM | JR EXPLORATION & DEVELOPMENT
DAVID SADOWSKI
416.777.4935
416.777.4951
TORONTO (CAN 1.888.601.6105 | USA 1.800.290.4847)
416.777.7188
416.777.7060
ENERGY
OIL & GAS ENERGY SERVICES, HEAD OF ENERGY RESEARCH
ANDREW BRADFORD, CFA
NICK HEFFERNAN (ASSOCIATE ANALYST)
TIM MONACHELLO (ASSOCIATE)
OIL & GAS PRODUCERS
KURT MOLNAR
GORDON STEPPAN, CFA (ASSOCIATE)
OIL & GAS PRODUCERS
LUC MAGEAU, CFA
DAVE NIELSEN (ASSOCIATE)
SR. OIL & GAS PRODUCERS | OIL SANDS
CHRIS COX, CFA
MATTHEW MURPHY (ASSOCIATE)
INTERNATIONAL OIL & GAS
ANA WESSEL
HEAD OF SALES
MIKE WESTCOTT
MICHELLE MARGUET (MARKETING COORDINATOR)
416.777.4918
416.777.6414
JOHN HART
DAVID MAISLIN, CFA
TANYA HATCHER (ASSISTANT)
514.350.4462
514.350.4460
514.350.4458
LONDON
JON DE VOS
ADAM WOOD
0.207.426.5632
0.207.426.5612
INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY TRADING
CO-HEAD OF TRADING
BOB MCDONALD, CFA
ANDREW FOOTE, CFA
TORONTO (CANADA 1.888.601.6105 | USA 1.800.290.4847)
PAM BANKS
ANTHONY COX
OLIVER HERBST
ANDY HERRMANN
ERIC MUNRO, CFA
JAMES SHIELDS
BOB STANDING
PETER MASON (ASSISTANT)
VANCOUVER (1.800.667.2899)
NAV CHEEMA
FRASER JEFFERSON
DEREK ORAM
MONTREAL (514.350.4450 | 1.866.350.4455)
JOE CLEMENT
PATRICK SANCHE
604.659.8222
416.777.4924
416.777.4923
416.777.4922
416.777.4947
416.777.4937
416.777.4983
416.777.4941
416.777.4921
416.777.7195
604.659.8224
604.659.8218
604.659.8223
514.350.4470
514.350.4465
INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY OFFICES
Calgary
Suite 4250
525 8th Avenue SW
Calgary, AB T2P 1G1
403.509.0500
Montreal
Vancouver
Suite 3000
Suite 2100
1800 McGill College
925 West Georgia Street
Montreal, PQ H3A 3J6
Vancouver, BC V6C 3L2
514.350.4450
604.659.8200
Toll Free: 1.866.350.4455
Toll Free: 1.800.667.2899
Toronto
International Headquarters
Suite 5400, Scotia Plaza 40 King Street West The Raymond James Financial Center
Toronto, ON M5H 3Y2
880 Carillon Parkway
416.777.4900
St.Petersburg, FL
Toll Free Canada: .888.601.6105
USA 33716
Toll Free USA: 1.800.290.4847
727.567.1000
403.509.0509
604.659.8210
416.777.4948
604.659.8202
416.777.7173
604.659.8200
604.659.8226

Canada Research Baylin Technologies Inc.

Transcription

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