Nick Sargent - Wellington Modelling

Wellington Transport
Models
Nick Sargent
Team Leader Data & Analysis
Outline
• About Us
• Wellington Transport Models
• Model System Usage
• Asset Maintenance
Data & Analysis Team
• Chun Lee – Modeller/ Analyst
• Nicky Durling – Snr Data Analyst
• Snr Transport Modeller (appointed)
• Marian McMillan – Administrator
• Snr Data Analyst (vacant)
• And me!
NZ MUGS 2009
• Myself
• Mike Vincent
Project Model Excellence
1. High Quality
Models
7. High Quality
Operators
2. High Quality
Validation
Project
Model Excellence
3. Quality
Suppliers
4. Organisational
Champion
6. Quality
Assurance Processes
5. Stakeholder
Satisfaction
High Quality Models and
Validation
• WTSM updated to 2006 base and
validates well on screenlines
• System updated to Emme3 allowing
for nicer graphical outputs
• Modelling team continually reviewing
input information to develop future
scenarios
– Model Input Tracking process
Tracking Inputs
• Population
• Economy: Employment
• Cost of motoring (fuel prices)
• Car ownership
Regional Population
•
Overall regional
population in 2010 lies
above medium and
below high growth
•
Wellington City, Upper
Hutt, and Porirua
closer to the high
growth
•
Lower Hutt, and Kapiti
on or about medium
growth
Economy: Employment
•
Model assumes 1.8%pa
growth as central, with
low1.5%pa, and high
2.1%pa
•
2006 and 2007 showed
a trend towards the high
growth - more recently
economy in recession
•
However expect a
higher than low trend in
long-term given
economic stimuli
Fuel (Petrol) Prices
Car Ownership (cars/capita)
Wellington Transport Models
• Project
– Awarded to Opus and Arup
– Conceived by GWRC and JB at TDG
– Builds on all work to date
– Improve PT predictive capability
– Lay foundations for the future
Wellington Transport Models
• Data Collection
– Vehicle screen line counts (TDG/ HTS)
– ETM harvesting (NZ Bus & Mana)
– Rail Passenger Counts (TDG)
– Rail O&D Intercept Surveys (TDG)
– Bus O&D Intercept Surveys (Research NZ)
WTSM is a Regional Multi-Modal Demand
Forecasting Model (225 zones)
WTSM
4 key components:
1. Trip Generation,
2. Trip Distribution,
3. Mode Split, &
4. Assignment
WPTM will be a Regional Public Transport
Assignment Model (780 zones)
WPTM
•
Uses fully observed demand data sourced
from ‘Snapper’ cards
•
Combined with surveys to disaggregate
data by trip purpose
•
Uses forecasts from WTSM to predict
public transport behaviour in the future
Shared Network
•
Development of new network to be used in
both WTSM and WPTM
•
Additional access links when used in WPTM
•
Developed from
– Road centre lines
– Public Transport Database
– 2006 Link and intersection coding
Project Delivery
Present & Future Network
Travel Speeds
Wellington Models System
Present & Future Network
Travel Speeds
System Usage - RoNS
Present & Future Network
Travel Speeds
System Usage – PT Spine Study
Present & Future Network
Travel Speeds
System Usage - Whom
•
GWRC
•
NZTA RoNS Consultants
•
Authorized users (OPUS and DY)
Asset Maintenance – What?
•
2013/15 – Census Revalidation
•
2013/15 – Commercial Vehicle Model
•
2013/15 – Convert WTSM to ‘Modeller’
•
2018/21 – Model Rebuild
– HTS, 780 zones in both, significant project
Asset Maintenance – How $
•
GWRC – Rates 50% from 25%
•
NZTA – NLTP (TPAC at 50%?)
•
NZTA RoNS – capital charge?
•
Consultant project levy?
Acknowledgements
• Beca and SKM
• Andy Wilson of Opus
• Julie Ballantyne of TDG