Impact of Climate Change on Rural Salvadorian Farmers
Transcription
Impact of Climate Change on Rural Salvadorian Farmers
Impact of Climate Change on Rural Salvadorian Farmers Jennifer Dorrance, Meredith Hauber, Michelle Hurley, and Sandra Khananusit The George Washington University May 12, 2011 Table of Contents Table of Figures ............................................................................................................................ 1 Acknowledgments ......................................................................................................................... 2 Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... 3 El Salvador Country Information ................................................................................................... 5 Background ............................................................................................................................. 5 Climate Risks .......................................................................................................................... 5 Food Security Implications ...................................................................................................... 7 Actors in Climate Change, Environment, and Agriculture Development ................................. 8 The Capstone Project ................................................................................................................. 11 Objective & Scope................................................................................................................. 11 Methodology.......................................................................................................................... 12 Individual Farmer Interviews ........................................................................................... 12 Focus Groups .................................................................................................................. 12 Historical Farmer Interviews ............................................................................................ 12 Sample Selection ............................................................................................................ 13 Limitations in Methodology .............................................................................................. 14 Review of Results ....................................................................................................................... 15 Individual Farmer Interview Results ...................................................................................... 15 Basic Household Information .......................................................................................... 15 Basic Farming Information .............................................................................................. 16 Farming Practices ........................................................................................................... 20 Economics ....................................................................................................................... 23 Observed Climate Changes and Causes ........................................................................ 25 Observed Impacts and Actions Taken ............................................................................ 26 Climate Change Awareness ............................................................................................ 27 Focus Group Results ............................................................................................................ 28 Historical Interview Results ................................................................................................... 29 Changes in Agriculture and Farming Practices ............................................................... 29 Weather, Climate, and Environmental Changes ............................................................. 30 Impacts of Disasters and Risk Management ................................................................... 30 Themes ....................................................................................................................................... 31 Existing Capacities of Individuals and Households ............................................................... 31 Access to Climate and Weather Information ................................................................... 31 Cost, Availability, and Selection of Farm Inputs .............................................................. 33 Water Management and Food Security .......................................................................... 34 Food Security and Income Diversification ....................................................................... 36 Spending Priorities and Investment Decisions ................................................................ 38 Training and Technical Assistance ................................................................................. 39 Adaptive Farming Practices at the Household Level ............................................................ 41 Detecting a Shift .............................................................................................................. 41 Adaptive Farming Practices ............................................................................................ 42 Community Action and Collective Resources for Adaptation ................................................ 45 Recommendations ...................................................................................................................... 49 Potential Projects for Implementation in El Salvador ............................................................ 49 Future Work for FTF Volunteers in El Salvador .................................................................... 49 Incorporating Adaptation Principles in Agriculture Program Design ..................................... 50 Appendix 1: Livelihood Zone ....................................................................................................... 55 Appendix 2: Field Survey Forms ................................................................................................. 59 Appendix 3: Community Information Table ................................................................................. 76 Appendix 4: Rainfall Patterns ...................................................................................................... 80 Table of Figures Figure 1: Map of El Salvador with Departments visited outlined ................................................. 13 Figure 2: Field study overview .................................................................................................... 14 Figure 3: Crops grown by department ........................................................................................ 16 Figure 4: Do you sell your crops? .............................................................................................. 17 Figure 5: Where do you sell your crops? .................................................................................... 17 Figure 6: Livestock ownership .................................................................................................... 17 Figure 7: Land size cultivated by department ............................................................................. 18 Figure 8: Land size cultivated by gender .................................................................................... 18 Figure 9: Land terrain variation by tenure ................................................................................... 19 Figure 10: Common pests and the crops they harm ................................................................... 20 Figure 11: Farming techniques ................................................................................................... 20 Figure 12: Farming techniques by tenure ................................................................................... 21 Figure 13: Reasons for trying a new technique .......................................................................... 21 Figure 14: Input purchase decision making ................................................................................ 22 Figure 15: Perceived weather changes ...................................................................................... 25 Figure 16: Stated causes of the changing climate ...................................................................... 26 Figure 17: Climate change awareness ....................................................................................... 27 Figure 18: Focus group activity results ....................................................................................... 28 Figure 19: Weather information sources ..................................................................................... 31 Figure 20: Weather accuracy ...................................................................................................... 32 Figure 21: Weather information sources by gender .................................................................... 32 Figure 22: Number of weather information sources by gender ................................................... 33 Figure 23: Planting decision making ........................................................................................... 43 1 Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank Winrock International and the Farmer-to-Farmer program supported by the U.S. Agency for International Development. This research would not have been possible without the guidance and support of Winrock’s Jennifer Grems, Ricardo Hernandez Auerbach, Arlen Garza, Nona Fisher, and Vickie Limbird. We are also very appreciative of the assistance received from Plan International’s Carmen Figueroa, Mercedes Garcia, Jose Luis Perez, Debora Aguilar, William Ernesto Palacios, Lucio Antonio Galdamez, and Martha Irene Enamorado. Additionally, we would like to acknowledge The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs’ International Development Studies program for its financing and for incorporating the unique “Capstone” experience into the curriculum. A special thanks to Dr. David Gow at the Elliott School of International Affairs. As our Capstone Advisor his guidance, feedback, and encouragement were invaluable. Last but surely not least, we would like to express our deepest appreciation for the many individuals and families in El Salvador who took the time from their busy lives to meet with us, share their experiences, beliefs, and opinions, and allow us the opportunity to represent them through this report. 2 Executive Summary El Salvador is the smallest and most densely populated country in Central America, with approximately six million inhabitants. Approximately 37 percent of the population is below the poverty line, with the majority located in rural areas. The economy contracted 3.5 percent in 2009 due to reduced export earnings and remittances, as well as higher food and energy prices—reversing progress made towards addressing poverty. Climate change trends are projected to exacerbate food security conditions. Changes in temperature, rainfall amount and patterns, and arable land all have pronounced impacts on agriculture, including: affecting what crops can grow; shifting traditional growing seasons; fueling soil degradation trends; altering presence of diseases, pests, and weeds; and resulting in loss of production of staple crops. Small scale subsistence farmers are among the groups hardest hit by these changes in terms of food security. The objective of this consultancy was to explore climate change impacts on food supply and security as well as on hazards that threaten subsistence farmers in El Salvador. Based on research The El Salvador Farmerto-Farmer program aims to generate rapid, sustained, and broadbased economic growth in agricultural sectors, and is implemented by Winrock International in partnership with Plan International. and a two week field study on the perception of a group of subsistence farmers on climate change, hazards, and impacts on living conditions, the GWU Capstone Team identified potential actions that farmers could take to increase resilience to challenges faced and enhance food security. The following report includes a brief discussion on El Salvador, climate change and food security projections, and the policy environment addressing these issues. The field survey methodology and study results are then overviewed (see Results). Select themes are identified, drawn from interactions in the field and from research (see Themes). Key results and themes are discussed in the context of food security, livelihoods, and adaptive practices, and include: Farmer perceptions of climate change, hazards, and their impacts Nearly all people interviewed showed an awareness of deviations from normal climatic patterns, with men and women consistently identifying similar perceived changes including heavier, more intense rainfall, hotter temperatures, and unpredictable weather. A large majority of farmers noted reductions in yield of staple crops in the last year—due to variable weather and climate—but reduced yields of basic crops do not always 3 correlate with reduced food security, especially when other coping or adaptation strategies are in place. Half of the farmers who showed an awareness of a change in climatic patterns were undertaking some change in behavior to mitigate the negative impacts, such as new farming techniques and income diversification. Farmers’ perceptions of and responses to soil fertility appeared to be a stronger factor in promoting innovations and changes in farming practices, as they were more likely to adopt techniques that helped improve their crop’s productivity and soil fertility. Potential actions to increase resilience to climate changes and enhance food security Access to accurate weather information is critical to make informed planting and crop selection decisions. Identification of appropriate mixes of production activities can help buffer or recover from negative impacts. Important adaption options in the agricultural sector include: crop diversification, mixed crop/livestock farming systems, using different crop varieties, changing planting and harvesting dates, and mixing less-productive, drought-resistant varieties and high-yield water sensitive crops Farmers are finding ways to decrease costs of farm inputs. Increasing availability and variety of inputs can help to lower costs and promote greater yields and food security. Water management (e.g., increasing rainfall productivity and capturing rainfall for use) is an essential focus area in working with farmers dependent on rain-fed agriculture. Farmers are pursuing investment strategies when possible, but are often limited by surrounding factors such as minimal off-farm employment opportunity. Attention must be given to feasibility and sustainability of strategies selected. Training and technical assistance activities can assist in identifying and overcoming existing barriers and challenges to implementation of sustainable farming and other practices, including winning farmer buy-in to try new approaches. Community and collective action initiatives can foster stewardship of shared resources, provide a type of safety net, and promote environmentally sustainable practices. Many communities see value in expanding this type of engagement. Based on findings, recommendations are provided for areas where Farmer-to-Farmer implementing organizations can work with the targeted group of farmers, potential future projects, and considerations for incorporating climate change adaptation and food security into future work (see Recommendations). 4 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 El Salvador Country Information Background El Salvador is the smallest yet most densely populated country in Central America, with approximately six million inhabitants and a gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of US $3600. Population is concentrated in urban areas (64 percent), with density in urban areas projected to rise continuously in the next several decades. GDP is comprised primarily of services (59.9 percent) and industry (29.1 percent), followed by agriculture (11 percent), with agriculture’s share declining and services rising. The economy is the third largest in Central America, and is intricately linked to shifts in the regional economy. Lead export partners are the U.S. (44 percent), and neighbors Guatemala (14 percent), Honduras (13 percent), and Nicaragua (6 percent). In 2009, remittances formed over 16 percent of GDP. These linkages and the global financial crisis resulted in the economy contracting 3.5 percent in 2009 due to reduced export earnings and remittances, as well as higher food and energy prices—reversing progress made towards addressing poverty. Approximately 37 percent of the population is below the poverty line, with the majority located in rural areas. Underemployment is high, with estimates as high as 43 percent. A significant challenge faced by El Salvador is to create alternative employment opportunities for the underemployed, particularly agriculture workers and small scale farmers.1 The country’s low population growth rate of 0.3 percent, which accounts for population loss through outward migration, is correlated with unavailability of alternatives. Climate Risks Due to its physical location and geotectonic characteristics, El Salvador is exposed to a variety of hydro-meteorological and geophysical natural hazards. Globally, El Salvador has the second highest economic risk exposure to two or more hazards, according the Natural Disaster Hotspot Study by the World Bank. The same study also ranks El Salvador second among countries with the highest percentage of total population considered to be at a “Relatively High Mortality Risk from Multiple Hazards”.2 The United Nations (UN) considered approximately 89 1 2 (USAID, 2010) (Dilley, 2005) Back to Top 5 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 percent of the territory, 95 percent of the population, and 96 percent of GDP to be at risk of one or multiple threats as of 2010.3 Globally, the country has ranked 17 on the Global Climate Risk Index from 1999-2009, topping the Risk Index in 2009 largely owing to the impacts of Hurricane Ida, which caused widespread destruction to infrastructure, agriculture, and other sectors.4 The Global Climate Risk Index quantifies the direct socio-economic impacts of extreme weather events over a specific time period, focusing on human fatalities and economic loss, offering an important indicator of a country’s vulnerability and exposure to extreme weather events. El Salvador’s tropical climate has pronounced wet (May to October) and dry (November to April) seasons with an average annual rainfall of 66 inches, 90 percent of which falls during the wet season.5 The El Niño/La Nina (ENSO) climate pattern—whose strength is likely to worsen for Pacific countries as a result of climate change—subjects El Salvador to periodic floods and droughts. In both ENSO and non-ENSO years, El Salvador is consistently hit by large hurricanes and tropical storms that often result in widespread flooding, landslides, and disruption to the agricultural sector. These extreme weather events have caused significant economic losses including a $68.9 million loss in basic grains during 2009 and 2010 (see table Impacts of Recent Storms on Agriculture). Severe land degradation in terms of reduced plant coverage and soil quality compounds the impact of these hazards, presenting clear challenges to retaining soil moisture and nutrients, and enhancing agricultural productivity. High rates of deforestation—the second highest in the region because of land use changes—also contribute to the country’s vulnerability to floods and landslides.6 Impacts of Recent Storms on Agriculture7 Year Storm Impact on Agriculture 2009/2010 Storm Ida, Agatha, Matthew $68.9 million in basic grains lost 2005 Tropical Storm Stan 70 percent of basic grain, corn, beans that 30 percent of the population depend on for subsistence destroyed 1998 Hurricane Mitch Overflow of Río Grande and Lempa Rivers; 100,000 hectares and 49 percent of agriculture/livestock lost 3 (UNDAC, 2010) (Germanwatch, 2011) 5 (Central Intelligence Agency) 6 (World Bank, 2010) 7 (World Bank, 2009) 4 Back to Top 6 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Climate modeling shows that Central America and Latin America may bear the second highest cost for climate change impacts globally; the top expected burden will be addressing water supply issues and flood management. Projected impacts on El Salvador include:8 Temperature: +0.8 to 1.1 C by 2020, and +2.5 to 3.7 C by 2100. Precipitation changes: -11.3 to +3.5 percent by 2020, and -36.6 to +11.1 percent by 2100. Drying trends have already been seen in the last decade. Sea level: +20 cm by 2030, and +70 cm by 2100. Land loss possible due to sea levels rise is 10 to 27.6 percent of total land. Changes in temperature, rainfall amount and patterns, and arable land all have pronounced impacts on the agriculture sector, including: affecting what crops can grow; shifting traditional growing seasons; exacerbating soil degradation trends; altering presence of diseases, pests, and weeds; and resulting in loss of production of key, staple crops. Food Security Implications Global food prices are likely to keep rising as production struggles to match demand, and extreme weather events and precipitation patterns are exacerbated by climate change. Sharply rising food prices presents a threat to the nutrition and livelihoods of vulnerable populations. El Salvador is one of the most vulnerable countries to food price shocks in Latin America, owing to a high reliance on food imports, high rates of poverty, and a relatively low capacity to execute policies that cushion the effect of rising prices, according to World Bank analysis.9 Even with no climate change, according to some projections the world price of maize would rise by 63 percent, soybeans by 72 percent, and wheat by 39 percent by 2050. Climate change results in additional price increases—a total of 52-55 percent for maize, 94-111 percent for wheat, and 11-14 percent for soybeans in the same period.10 Household-level agricultural production is a critical component of Average Reduction in Yields under Variable Climatic Conditions Compared to Normal Years Source: First National Communication on Climate Change in El Salvador, 2000 Drought food security and rural livelihoods. Abnormal Rainfall (e.g., during ENSO) Maize, rice, and beans comprise Maize - 14 percent - 23 percent more than 50 percent of the daily Rice - 13 percent - 25 percent caloric intake in rural areas, and Beans - 8 percent - 15 percent Sorghum - 9 percent - 13 percent sorghum cultivation enables many 8 (First National Communication on Climate Change in El Salvador to the UNFCCC, 2000) (World Bank, 2011) 10 (Nelson, 2009) 9 Back to Top 7 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 farmers to raise livestock.11 Drought and abnormal rainfall patterns—without infrastructure or mechanisms to cope with these occurrences—are among the most significant obstacles to increasing yields in rural areas, resulting in the decline in food production per capita currently seen. Inconsistent water availability also negatively impacts livestock, which further reduces available household income and food supplies. Migration out of agriculture to other sectors owing to general hardships, weather shocks, and diminished economic gains compound existing trends away from self-sufficiency in food production. Among farmers in El Salvador, small scale, subsistence farmers—who cultivate small plots and produce primarily for their own consumption—may be among the groups hardest hit by changes in weather and climate in terms of food security. Subsistence farmers rely almost exclusively on rain-fed agriculture and are the most susceptible to even slight changes in precipitation amounts and patterns (only five percent of El Salvador’s arable land is irrigated).12 Additionally, these farmers usually live in low-lying or remote hilly areas that are highly prone to floods and landslides, and where soil quality is poor. Limited access to markets and main towns—particularly during the rainy season when roads are often damaged by mudslides or flooding—limit opportunities for non-farm employment and supplementary income (Appendix 1). Actors in Climate Change, Environment, and Agriculture Development Government agencies, local and international non-governmental organizations (NGO), and research institutions can play an integral role in mitigating the effects of climate changes and variability for rural farmers. The below table discusses select actors currently working with rural farmer communities in El Salvador. In general, national government agencies have offered subsidies (such as seeds and fertilizer) and other economic incentives to encourage agriculture sector development, provide environmental assessments and weather information, and research improved agriculture production systems. However, "since the beginning of the 1980s, El Salvador has shown a dramatic decline in public funding for agricultural extension".13 Much of the government focus is now on large agri-business development and not on aiding subsistence farmers. The government has also established several environmental laws against burning, contamination, and pollution. However, “there is no comprehensive national law controlling environmental protection, and the legislation that is on the books is poorly enforced”.14 NGOs often act as 11 (World Bank, 2009) (World Bank, 2009) 13 (Solís & Bravo-Ureta, 2005) 14 (Encyclopedia of the Nations, 2011) 12 Back to Top 8 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 bridging organizations between rural communities and national and local governments, and work in diverse areas of rural development including agriculture, food security, and education. In the agricultural sector, many also offer technical assistance and trainings in sustainable farming practices, improving business value chains, and nutrition. Select Actors Working In Rural Farm Communities in El Salvador Selected Actors Mission Sample of Current Work Government Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources (MARN) To reverse environmental degradation and reduce risks; lead public environmental management that is structured, inclusive, accountable, and transparent High priority on risk management support during this rainy season (urban and rural areas); functions include environmental assessment, landfill regulation, etc. Centro Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (CENTA) Leading agency in charge of research and extension of technology transfer in the agricultural sector; seeks to improve agricultural production systems Works with small farmers on a variety of seed programs, including a bean program in La Libertad; offers bean seeds to small farmers, (with less than 1 hectare), who utilize lower farm inputs to develop and test resiliency to pests15 Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MAG) Facilitate and streamline Weekly wholesale prices of development of agriculture, forestry, vegetables, fruits and grains via SMS; fisheries, and aquaculture through consultation to promote business skills effective services to contribute to and agribusiness strategy; distribution welfare of Salvadorians—especially of seed and fertilizer of the rural family Ministry of Health Works to extend health care Passed a law in 2010 forming a services to all citizens and works Commission that will shape the with communities and other sectors National Food and Nutrition Policy; and social players to ensure a good this specifically includes executing quality of life programs and projects related to the production, commercialization, industrial processing and personal consumption and use of basic foods; in rural areas, the Ministry of Health has initiated nutrition campaigns16 Additional government agencies that work in fields related to environment, agriculture production, and food security include the Ministry of Education, Ministry of Economy, and others. 15 16 (University of Michigan, 2008) (La Ley de creación de la Comisión nacional de alimentación y nutrición, 2010) Back to Top 9 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Non-Governmental and International Organizations Caritas / Catholic Relief Services Works through local parishes, ensuring that the needs of the poor in even the most remote regions are addressed; affiliated with the Catholic Church Projects include savings-led microfinance, agriculture for basic needs, integrated watershed management Foundation for the Cooperation and Community Development of El Salvador (CORDES) Development NGO founded as a Projects focus on rural development result of rural communities and sustainable agriculture with a organizing in Chalatenango; acts as specific focus on women; in umbrella organization for Chalatenango, they offered workshops microeconomic development and and provided Tortilla corn dough mills, environmental NGOs and assisted in implementing crop diversification17 Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Five year, $461 million compact for strategic investments in education, public services, agricultural production, rural business development, and transportation infrastructure Plan International Works with 429 communities in 61 Child health; education; promoting municipalities of 5 departments to child protection; promoting promote rights of the child participation; income generation for rural families Winrock International Generate broad-based economic Increase agricultural sector growth in targeted agricultural productivity and profitability; sectors of El Salvador and increase strengthen agricultural institutions and the American public’s value chain alliances; improve understanding of international conservation and sustainable use of development natural resources UN World Food Programme (WFP) Works with other actors on policy development and operational implementation in the field in key areas of intervention for food security Transportation project to physically unify El Salvador’s Northern Zone with the rest of the country to enable new economic opportunities for rural households School meals, mother/child health and nutrition; regional relief and recovery operation; Purchase for Progress (P4P); emergency preparedness and response; capacity development Additional non-governmental and international organizations that work in related fields include: the United Nations, United Nations Environmental Program, and others. 17 (Salv Aid) Back to Top 10 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 The Capstone Project The Farmer-to-Farmer (FTF) program is a U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) funded program that provides technical assistance to farmers, farm groups, and agribusinesses in developing countries to promote sustainable improvements in food security and agricultural processing, production, and marketing. Volunteers provide assistance in areas including technology transfer, enterprise development, and environmental conservation. Since 2009, FTF has increased its focus on food security and plans to incorporate considerations for climate change and environmental vulnerabilities into work on food security. The El Salvador FTF program (2009-2014) aims to generate rapid, sustained, and broad-based economic growth in agricultural sectors.18 The program is implemented by Winrock International (Winrock) in partnership with Plan International (Plan), two international NGOs. Winrock, which works globally to empower the disadvantaged, increase economic opportunity, and sustain natural resources, lends considerable expertise in sustainable agricultural, climate adaptation, and food security. Plan, one of the oldest and largest children's development organizations in the world, has been working to advocate the rights of the child in El Salvador since 1976. With a presence in 429 communities in 61 municipalities, and program offices located in Cabañas, Chalatenango, and La Libertad, Plan is expanding their expertise to the relationship between climate change and food security for rural families. Objective & Scope The objective of this consultancy is to explore climate change impacts on food supply and security as well as on hazards that threaten subsistence farmers in El Salvador. The GWU Capstone Team (team) was tasked with conducting a field study on the perception of a group of subsistence farmers on climate change and hazards, and perceived impacts on living conditions–-with particular attention to vulnerable groups such as women. Based on research and interactions in the field, the team identified potential actions that farmers could take to increase resilience to the challenges they face and overcome key barriers to enhancing food security. Finally, recommendations are provided for leverage points in which FTF implementing organizations in El Salvador can help the targeted group of farmers to attain FTF goals, as well as considerations for future work. 18 (Winrock International) Back to Top 11 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Methodology The team conducted a literature review and field study on the agricultural conditions of Salvadorian subsistence farmers. Beginning in January of 2011, the team undertook a literature review to become familiar with current knowledge on climate change and food security, with a focus on El Salvador and Latin America. The team identified best practices and lessons learned in improving food security and agricultural adaptation to climate change, which were compiled into a training package, later presented to Plan Technicians supporting the FTF program. During a two week field visit in March 2011, the team travelled to farmer communities for eight days. The team prepared and implemented a survey methodology to collect information from subsistence farmers which included individual farmer interviews, focus groups, and life history interviews with senior members of communities (Appendix 2). Individual Farmer Interviews The individual farmer interviews were the primary method for gathering information in the field. The purpose of these interviews was to explore perceived climate changes and impacts on food supply and security of the household, as well as on hazards that threaten farmer livelihoods. To capture this information the team designed a survey with five sections: Basic Household Information, Basic Farming Information, Farming Practices, Economics, and Farmers Perceptions of Hazards. To account for differences in gender-based perceptions and experiences, the team requested that approximately 50 percent of interviewees were female. Focus Groups To supplement the individual interviews, the team held two focus groups in the community cooperative, Irrigation Association of South Atiocoyo (ARAS) in La Libertad. One focus group consisted of three women and the other of seven men. Focus groups were meant to provide a “community level” perspective versus the individual-level perspective of farmer and historical interviews. In addition, the team sought to compare female and male perceptions on how changes in climate and hazards have affected livelihoods. Discussion was structured around a group activity on identifying and ranking perceived changes in climate, causes of those changes, and how changes have impacted the lives of the participants and their communities. Historical Farmer Interviews To further supplement the individual interviews, the team conducted a “life history interview” with an older, experienced farmer in each of three departments visited. The historical Back to Top 12 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 farmer interviews were designed to capture perception of issues over time, with a focus on changes and turning points. The interview included three sections: Basic Household Information, Basic Farming Information, and Perceptions of Changes and Hazards. The final section of the interview involved compiling a timeline related to environmental changes and hazards observed on their farm or in their community. The team sought to interview at least one older female. Sample Selection Through judgmental sampling, the team selected 15 of 34 municipalities that Plan is currently supporting through the El Salvador FTF program (Appendix 3). These communities were located across eight municipalities in three of El Salvador’s 14 departments. Figure 1 is a map of El Salvador outlining the visited areas as follows: northern La Libertad, Cabañas, and Chalatenango. Figure 2 lists all visited communities and total participant numbers. While the team initially selected the communities, Plan staff worked with community leaders to select the interviewees. The team separated into two groups of two persons each and a translator in order to conduct the individual interviews, focus groups, and historical interviews. Figure 1: Map of El Salvador with Departments visited outlined Back to Top 13 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Department Municipality Community Individual Interviews La Libertad San Matias Las Flores 4 La Libertad San Matias EL Jicaro 2 La Libertad Tacachico Husisilapa 4 La Libertad Tacachico ARAS 3 Chalatenango San Francisco Morazan Higueral 4 Chalatenango San Francisco Morazan Teosinte 3 Cabañas Ilobasco Huertas 4 Cabañas Ilobasco San Jose Calera 5 Cabañas Sensuntepeque Los Yugos 4 Cabañas Sensuntepeque Las Marias 1 Chalatenango La Laguna La Cuchilla 4 Chalatenango La Laguna Plan Verde 4 La Libertad Tacachico ARAS La Libertad Tacachico San Jorge 2 Chalatenango Nombre de Jesus Quipure 2 Chalatenango Nombre de Jesus Junquillo 2 9 San Salvador 10 San Salvador Historical Interviews Focus Groups Training for Plan 1 1 7 men 3 women 1 19 Total: 48 3 10 19 Figure 2: Field study overview Limitations in Methodology While the team prepared a standardized methodology for all interviews, questions were not always phrased identically due to 1) translation, 2) time limitations, 3) variance in style between the two groups, and 4) modifications based on the interviewee’s understanding of the question. These variations may have shaped interviewee responses and results. In addition, given that Plan staff worked with community leaders to select interview candidates, a potential selection bias exists. For example, interviewees selected may have been more engaged in the community and Plan’s current efforts. It is possible that those selected were more informed on certain issues and/or inclined to learn about and adopt new approaches, compared to those not participating in Plan programs. Also, the team had requested that approximately 50 percent of individual farmers interviewed were women, at least one historical interview participant was a woman, and one focus group was comprised of 5-8 women. The actual sample consisted of 44 percent women for individual interviews, no women for historical interviews, and a focus group of three women. This sample offered insight into differences between genders, but affords more weight to men. Back to Top 14 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Review of Results This section reviews responses received from the 48 individual farmer interviews, two focus groups, and three historical interviews. Individual Farmer Interview Results The team conducted and analyzed a total of 48 individual farmer interviews across 15 communities in three departments. Of these interviews, 27 participants were male and 21 female. Responses provided the team with household and farming information, and perceived climate changes and impacts on farmer Household Statistics Interviewee Age Average: 43.8 Mode: 46 Range: 16 - 81 livelihoods. Basic Household Information Occupations: The most popular primary occupation of the interviewees was “farmer” followed by “housewife”. Also, 71 percent identified at least one other income source or role in the community. Some popular roles were farmer (often cited by women as secondary Household Size # Members (ave.): 5.8 # Children (ave.): 2.6 # Children (mode): 2.0 Total household members represented: 276 # Adults: 152 # Children: 124 to housewife), hired farm laborer, bricklayer, carpenter, animal husbandry, and sales—either as a shop owner or by direct sales of crafts and foods. Thirty-two interviewees had children in school and 25 interviewees reported that their children help farm. Boys and girls frequently had different farm support roles; boys tended to help with “hard” labor related to planting and harvesting while girls helped with “soft” labor such as carrying food and water to the fields. The girls also assisted with household chores like cooking, cleaning, and firewood collection. Energy Sources: The vast majority (92 percent) reported using firewood in the household, primarily for cooking. The majority (86 percent) reported no difficulty in obtaining firewood, with pruning trees around the home or plot as the main source. Other interviewees reported walking up to two hours to collect firewood, often accompanied by children. Also, 39 respondents had electricity, 22 people used gas, and one person had a photovoltaic panel. Water Sources: Many households used a community or national water system as the primary household water supply (50 percent). The next most popular water sources were Back to Top 15 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 collecting water from a spring or well (23 percent) or piping or pumping from a spring (23 percent). Of those without a household water system, six respondents—all female—walked 10 to 20 minutes to a spring or well to collect water, making one to three trips daily; this task was often given to female children. Four respondents received piped water from family or friends. Rainwater harvesting was also reported (15 percent) as a supplementary source. However, rainwater from barrels or catchment containers was commonly only used for cleaning. Basic Farming Information Crops: Of the 47 farmers who grew some kind of crop either for consumption or sale, nearly all reported growing staple maize and beans, and 70 percent reported growing sorghum. A majority (70 percent) also diversified their production by growing at least one other type of crop in addition to these staple crops, with 40 percent growing vegetables. Types of crops grown varied somewhat by department; varieties were interviewees Libertad cash cultivated mostly and crop in by La Chalatenango. Previous studies conducted in the country suggest that the Figure 3: Crops grown by department poorest farmers are usually more dependent on subsistence crops, with cash crops providing a larger percentage of total output value for more well-off farmers.19 Although there is little empirical evidence regarding cash versus food crops under climate change scenarios, other evidence suggests that cash crop producers can be “maladaptive”—seeking short-term gains by continuing with the same production methods—while food crop producers have adaptation strategies that are more concerned with reducing or managing risk.20 Farmers were also asked whether their crop yield for last season’s harvest was average in comparison to harvests from previous years. Most (87 percent) said they had a lower yield, 10 percent said the harvest was average for all of their crops, and three percent did not know. Of those who had a lower yield than average, one-third had lost half or more of at least one of 19 20 (World Bank, 1998) (Slater, 2007) Back to Top 16 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 their crops. In 2010, El Salvador experienced the effects of the La Nina phenomenon that contributed to above-average rainfall that negatively affected the Primera harvest—particularly for beans—and the Postrera season for farmers.21 Most interviewees did report lower bean harvests than average, and 37 percent indicated lower maize yields owing to excess rain. Nearly two-thirds of respondents sold at least some of their crops, although this response varied significantly by department (Figure 4). Approximately half of respondents in Cabañas and Chalatenango did not sell any of their crops. In contrast, every respondent in La Libertad sold at least some of their produce. A slight majority (60 Figure 5: Where do you sell your crops? Figure 4: Do you sell your crops? percent) also sold their crops directly following the harvests, with the remaining 40 percent selling crops incrementally. Incremental sales were used to pay off debts, to buy production inputs, or harvests were held and sold strategically in order to obtain higher prices. Interviewees sold these crops in a mix of markets (Figure 5), including within their local communities, the department’s main town, or to intermediaries. respondents In had La Libertad only, three arrangements with local sugarcane and rice mills to sell, and sometimes hull, their harvests. Livestock: In addition to producing crops, households also kept livestock; the type and number of which are typically contingent upon household wealth in El Salvador. 22 Only two of 48 interviewees did not own any livestock, with most respondents owning poultry, followed by cows and then pigs (Figure 6). Food was the most commonly cited use of livestock (56 percent), followed by income (39 percent), and transport (5 percent). 21 22 Figure 6: Livestock ownership (FEWSNET, 2010) (FEWSNET, 2010) Back to Top 17 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Ownership of animals other than poultry varied by department. Most (80 percent) respondents in La Libertad owned animals such as cows and pigs, compared to 70 percent of respondents in Cabañas, and 60 percent in Chalatenango. Ownership varied less by gender, with 30 percent of women who responded either owning no animals or only raising poultry, compared to 23 percent of men. However, many of the female respondents were participating in Plan’s poultry program. Therefore, these numbers may not be indicative of average livestock ownership in these municipalities. Land: Of the 47 farmers who grew crops for consumption or sale, approximately half cultivated less than 2.1 manzanas, one-quarter cultivated 2.1 to 4.2 manzanas, and one-quarter cultivated 4.2 manzanas or more.23 The size of the parcel cultivated varied by department and gender (Figures 7 and 8 respectively). No interviewee in Cabañas cultivated more than 2.1 manzanas, and La Libertad had the highest number of respondents (27 percent) who worked on more than 4.2 manzanas. Males were also more likely than females to Figure 7: Land size cultivated by department cultivate more than 4.2 manzanas. Those who own less than 2.1 manzanas—while capable of producing the majority of their annual food needs— use what they harvest mostly for household consumption and still depend on food purchased from the market to supplement their diets.24 23 24 Figure 8: Land size cultivated by gender 1 manzana = 0.71 hectares (FEWSNET, 2010) Back to Top 18 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Of interviewees who indicated the status of their land ownership, nearly half rented (45 percent).25 A few respondents also shared how they pay for rented lands including cash or in crops. Most farmers (82 percent) cultivated only one parcel of land, which was often located on a steep hillside. Sixty percent of interviewees farmed hilly land, 20 percent farmed land that was flat, and the remaining 20 percent farm land that was both hilly and flat or which varied year by year depending on what parcel of land they are able to rent. A higher percentage of known renters farmed less “desirable” parcels of land that were located on steep hillsides or that varied year by year (Figure 9). Historically, renting and sharecropping arrangements are less advantageous than ownership since these lands also carry less secure property rights and leave users unable to obtain credit or collateral to make improvements.26 Land ownership also varied greatly by gender, with a majority (75 percent) of responding females renting the Figure 9: Land terrain variation by tenure land they cultivated compared with only 17 percent of men. Legally, women have equal rights in obtaining access to land and credit markets, but tradition considers them unsuited to dealing with economic and financial markets. Inheritance is the primary means by which women become land owners.27 Only a small percentage of farmers (12 percent) who responded had to walk more than 30 minutes to reach their plot, but of those, several had to walk nearly 1.5 hours over fairly hilly terrain. A little more than half of the respondents also hired labor to help on their farm, with the hired help used to prepare the land before planting, sowing, and at harvest-time. Water: Three-quarters of farmers interviewed depended on rainfall as the only source of water for their crops. Of the farmers who used supplemental water sources, most utilized either rainwater harvesting (9 percent) or carrying water from nearby rivers or streams (9 percent). Nearly 20 percent of respondents also indicated that they used a sprinkler or hose system to water vegetables grown near the house. Only two farmers—both interviewed in ARAS—used 25 Owing to the potential sensitivity of land ownership, respondents were not always asked if they owned the land they cultivated. Land rights are not considered fully secure by many people in El Salvador and an estimated 57 percent of the rural population does not have legal access to land (See Footnote 27). 26 (Seligson, 1995) 27 (USAID, 2010) Back to Top 19 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 irrigation for their farms, although one of these was a tilapia farmer. Another farmer in the same community, however, indicated that he did not use irrigation because it was too expensive to connect his land to the ARAS irrigation system. Pests: Twenty-five farmers offered their observations on various pests and diseases (Figure 10). Most (75 percent) said that pests were increasing in number, 13 percent felt they were the same as in the past, and 12 percent felt the number of pests varied year-to-year or they did not know. Four farmers said that they need more chemicals now than in the past in order to manage insects, and four also said that there are more pests during the dry season than there used to be. One interviewee felt that since her family had stopped burning the land, pests had “become more of a problem.” Figure 10: Common pests and the crops they harm Farming Practices Farming Techniques: Interviewees employed a wide range of farming techniques. Many were conservation practices that improved farmer’s fields, suggesting that farmers do undertake improvements they perceived to be beneficial. Furthermore, use of farming techniques did not Respondents vary significantly between men and women. Both indicated practicing the 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% same variety of techniques and at similar implementation rates. As shown in Figure 11, the majority mulched, used zero tillage, and did not burn the soil. Only six percent of respondents reported that they burned the land before planting or during harvest. This Farming Techniques reported response rate conflicts with reports from Plan Technicians working in the areas and through field visit Figure 11: Farming techniques Back to Top 20 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 observations. A reason for this inconsistency could be that farmers selected for interviews are more informed about sustainable farming practices. One community leader said he was one of only two in his community choosing not to burn the land. He stated, “It’s hard to be the example” and that other community members think he is “crazy” for not burning. Although there are reasons to expect rental practices to result in under-investment in soil conservation, primarily because of the short term of most leases, the survey reveals that a variety of conservation measures were used on rented lands or sharecropped land. In fact, as seen in Figure 12, a greater proportion of rented fields than owned fields used conservation Figure 12: Farming techniques by tenure practices. Although owners were somewhat more likely to use barriers (live or dead) to prevent soil erosion, renters were more likely to intercrop, leave land fallow, practice crop rotation, and to not burn the land. Exactly half of the interviewees who responded have tried some kind of new farming technique in the past several years. Reasons for trying new farming practices varied widely, but were most often related to either increasing crop yield and soil fertility (46 percent), or because of problems with pests (26 percent). Figure 13 shows all stated reasons. Plan training was also mentioned by several respondents as a reason for trying new techniques. Many respondents who said they had not tried any new farming practices noted that they always relied on “traditional methods”, suggesting an aversion to trying unfamiliar techniques with unknown benefits. Other factors mentioned for not changing techniques were that renting land made it difficult to innovate, they did not know of any new techniques, or they lacked funds to try new farming practices. Figure 13: Reasons for trying a new technique Back to Top Also, men were more likely than 21 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 women to report trying new techniques. There was no significant difference in whether anyone was more or less likely to try a new technique based on owning instead of renting his/her land, suggesting that other factors were responsible for influencing farmer’s decisions on whether to innovate with farm practices than land tenure. Production Inputs: Many respondents obtained their seeds from more than one source, with one-third receiving free maize seeds and fertilizer from a government program. Sorghum was always saved by respondents for replanting next season, beans were usually saved, and maize was sometimes saved but usually bought. Factors influencing respondent’s decisions on whether to save seeds included the amount of the previous harvest, and whether the seeds were considered of a high enough quality to replant. Eleven percent of respondents indicated they depended solely on saved seeds for planting next Some flowers are natural insect repellants. Nasturtiums: ward off moths, beetles, squash bugs, flies and aphids. Intercrop with squash, pumpkins, cabbage, beans, cucumbers and squash. Marigolds: ward off beetles, worms and flies. Intercrop with tomatoes, asparagus, cabbage and beans. year’s staple crops. This diversity in seed sources may not be a good indicator of seed security for all farmers, however, as some interviewees indicated that they wanted to reuse seeds but had to buy new maize seeds every year because the only available varieties were transgenic. Most interviewees also used chemical fertilizers and pesticides for their crops; but, of the 75 percent who used chemical fertilizer, 20 percent mixed in organic matter. The remaining 25 percent fertilizers. An reported they used overwhelming organic majority (86 percent) responded that they used chemical pesticides. Factors influencing interviewees’ decisions on the type of crops they decided to plant and the type of production inputs they bought were complex and varied (Figure 14). Advice from agricultural store technicians, wanting to buy “traditional,” familiar varieties, Figure 14: Input purchase decision making and store availability were the most listed reasons for buying specific input types. Advice from neighbors and family was another common source of influence on which specific crop varieties and fertilizer types to use. Back to Top 22 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Harvest Storage: Nearly all respondents (95 percent) indicated that they stored their harvest, with the same percentage storing their crops in metal silos (graneros). One respondent who grew rice said he stored his produce in bags, while another used plastic barrels. Only 13 percent lose any of their stored harvest, owing almost exclusively to excess humidity or rats consuming the stored yield. These numbers represent an encouraging use of graneros. Proper use of graneros reduces post-harvest losses owing to pests in maize and improves smallholders’ food security, especially by enabling farmers to strategically sell reserves as needed, as opposed to after harvests when prices are lower. Training and Technical Assistance: Of interviewees who responded, most (71 percent) have received some form of technical assistance and/or training, with the rest either indicating they have not received any training or assistance (24 percent) or not knowing if they have (5 percent). Interviewees listed a wide range of organizations offering assistance, with Plan most commonly listed (60 percent) followed by church organizations, Number of Interviewees Receiving Training and Technical Assistance CENTA, CORDES, and MCC. Only 23 percent reported Development Organizations Plan International 18 MCC 4 FEZAN 1 Caritas 1 Taiwanese Mission 1 largely consistent with other surveys conducted of farmers in receiving technical assistance from government sources— rural El Salvador.28 Interestingly, of the nine respondents who indicated they had received training in organic fertilizers, approximately Community Organizations Church 7 Cooperatives 1 CORDES 5 half still used chemical fertilizers on their farms. Several said Government CENTA Other other farm techniques taught to farmers, which may not remain Private Sector Agriculture Store Sugar Mill 5 2 that organics were too difficult to make, or it took too much time and too many ingredients. This finding has implications for employed following termination of the training or technical assistance program depending on factors such as labor or 1 1 input costs (as many programs give participants inputs for free during the pilot phase). Economics Spending: Many interviewees were asked to divide a circle into the percentage of all household income spent on the farm versus household. Responses varied but the vast majority reported a 50 percent/50 percent split, and slightly more allotted a higher percentage to the 28 (World Bank, 1998) Back to Top 23 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 farm. Interviewees were also asked to identify and rank the most expensive items they purchase for both the farm and household. Top farm expenditures were 1) fertilizer, 2) pesticides, and 3) seeds. The top household expenditures were 1) food, 2) health, and 3) education, while utilities, transportation and clothing were also commonly cited as other expenses. Women and men reported similar percentage allotments and top household expenditures. Moreover, responses were similar across the three departments. Remittances: “Remittances accounted for 16 percent of GDP in El Salvador in 2009, and about a third of all households receive these transfers”.29 This survey revealed a slightly lower rate with 20 percent of respondents receiving remittances. This could be due to remittances being a sensitive, personal topic, and select respondents electing not to share this information with the interviewer.30 Interestingly, women replied “yes” at a substantially higher rate than men—31 percent and 15 percent respectively. All remittances were reported to be from the U.S. and all were from family members, mostly children. Many respondents also noted that since the U.S. economy has been poor, remittances have been lower. There is much debate about the long-term development benefits of remittances. Studies have found that remittances spent on investment goods (education, housing, and business) can help to build human and physical capital and benefit long-term development. However, most people living at a subsistence level spend their remittances on consumption goods (food and consumables) which tend to have little impact on household status or local economies.31 During this study, there was no consistency to what remittances were used for, but food purchases and farm inputs were popular responses. Most remittances received were absorbed into household income and spent primarily on consumption goods or immediate needs such as healthcare. Credit: The majority of interviewees had utilized credit (58 percent). Women reported utilizing credit at a slightly lower rate (56 percent) than men (62 percent). Of the 25 credit recipients, the primary usage was to purchase farm inputs. Two respondents reported opening successful stores with the funds, and one used credit to pay school fees. The majority of recipients received credit from banks or NGOs; input suppliers, intermediaries, farming cooperatives, and community micro-lending credit groups were also important sources of credit. 29 (Central Intelligence Agency) Plan technicians accompanying the interviewers noted that they had knowledge of select interviewees receiving remittances, despite responding “no” when asked if remittances comprised an income source. 31 (Social Science Research Council , 2009) 30 Back to Top 24 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 The 42 percent of interviewees that did not use credit were asked “why not”. Responses varied and were sometimes accompanied with a story of a family member or friend losing their home or land to credit agencies. The most popular reasons given were that credit is too risky, carries high interest rates, and is difficult to repay. Some In La Cuchilla, an NGO helped start a micro-credit lending group. Within just 3 years the group grew so large it had to split into two. Today there are 70+ members and the most popular loans are for business startups! interviewees were also denied loans due to a lack of sufficient assets. During discussion, interviewees also noted that credit applications required “too much paperwork and time”, and preferred asking family and friends first. Two respondents said that they previously used credit, but since they have now grown their savings and income they no longer require credit. Observed Climate Changes and Causes When asked to list any changes in the weather or climate observed over the past 515 years, interviewees presented a wide variety of responses as presented in Figure 15. There was a general consensus among the individual interviews, historical interviews, and focus groups that the temperature is higher and the weather is becoming less predictable. In the individual interviews, men and women consistently identified the same perceived climate changes including, heavier, more intense rainfall, higher temperatures (both during the day-time, impacting the length of time farmers are able to work in the Figure 15: Perceived weather changes field, and at night-time, impacting comfort levels), and unpredictable weather. The responses of more rain overall were primarily from Chalatenango while the few responses indicating less rain overall were in all three departments. More specifically, most farmers shared that the 2010 rainy season was especially abnormal—with intense, higher than normal rainfall in September, and a sudden end to rains resulting in a dry October. These farmer perceptions were confirmed using internationally tracked weather data, which showed much higher than average rains in September and severely lower rains in October as compared to a 20-year average (Appendix 4). While the majority reported higher temperatures, two respondents, both from the community ARAS, mentioned temperatures are frequently lower. Back to Top 25 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Most of the noted changes in wind were from Cabañas or Chalatenango. Other changes reported included hail in Chalatenango, specific storms such as Ida, and increased cloudiness in the dry season. Individuals provided a wide array of causes for the changes noted; the primary causes Most identified cited were anthropogenic. deforestation and contamination as the major drivers of climate changes. Several also mentioned that the vegetation and climate drastically changed after the civil war due to burning Figure 16: Stated causes of the changing climate or bombing of land. Observed Impacts and Actions Taken Respondents identified several impacts caused by the observed changes in climate, ranging from income loss, changes in food and water supply, and increased health problems for people and livestock. Health was cited most frequently (83 percent), with influenza and diarrhea topping the list of illnesses. Respiratory disease, headaches, heat stress, and skin rashes or burns were also identified. Men more frequently reported crop loss (78 percent) followed by negative human health impacts (74 percent). Women, on the other hand, named negative health impacts (81 percent) followed by crop loss (48 percent) and loss of livestock (33 percent). Both men and women noted more pests and disasters such as landslides. When asked who is impacted most by changes in climate, a majority (75 percent) said either “children” or “children and elderly,” with many adding that this group was more susceptible to disease. Of those who mentioned negative impacts to livestock, nutrition and water-related issues were most prominent, and cows and poultry were most sensitive. Regarding livestock impacts from drought, an interviewee from Husisilapa said, “humans can adapt but animals cannot,” and require added care measures from their owners. Diminishing crop yields and sickly livestock disrupt food security. Of the 26 interviewees asked whether observed climate changes had impacted food security, the majority (62 percent) mentioned at least one of the following outcomes: declining quantity or quality of food, decline in the portion of food grown versus food purchased, less purchasing power, and food substitution (mentioned only by women). Individuals citing negative impacts related to climate changes were then asked if they had taken any actions to reduce those impacts. Of the 32 that responded, 56 percent said that they had taken some type of action, 34 percent had not taken any action, and nine percent felt Back to Top 26 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 the damage was “irreversible.” Many actions taken coincided with sustainable agricultural practices including not burning, leaving some land fallow, and growing dual purpose crops such as fruit trees. In addition, interviewees highlighted community actions including a disaster relief organization and a recycling committee. Regardless of whether an interviewee reported having taken action or not, most had suggestions they felt might alleviate impacts. The most popular responses included reforestation, changes to farming techniques, or changes in crop varieties. Climate Change Awareness Individuals were asked if they had ever heard of the phrase “climate change” with a follow up request to define it. Forty-two individuals responded and were divided into the following five categories: 1. Heard of climate change, did not define (24 percent). 2. Heard of climate change, partially defined (i.e. extreme, unpredictable, “crazy” weather) (29 percent). 3. Heard of climate change, correctly defined (12 percent). 4. Had not heard of climate change, did not define (33 percent). 5. Had not heard of climate change, but offered an accurate description of climate change causes or impacts (two percent). Figure 17: Climate change awareness Approximately two-thirds of respondents had heard of “climate change” with most attributing this to TV or environmental training classes offered by NGOs or the community church. Nearly half (43 percent) of all respondents were able to fully or partially define the concept, with some referencing scientific aspects such as atmospheric gases and the ozone hole. Responses classified as “partially defined” cited characteristics often associated with climate change such as rapid or extreme weather variations and growing strength or frequency of natural disasters. This general conceptual understanding is an important baseline and essential in raising awareness of projected changes, potential impacts, and adaptive measures to enhance food security. A few interviewees also asked for a definition after offering their response, showing an interest in learning more about these issues. Back to Top 27 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Focus Group Results The team conducted two focus groups in ARAS in La Libertad. One group consisted of seven men and the other of three women. The focus groups provided the team with areas of potential differences between how males and females perceive changes and impacts on livelihoods. They were not designed to be representative of the entire interview sample, or to provide conclusive evidence of gendered issues. The groups were first asked to identify changes in climate and weather prevalent in their community. The results were displayed and discussed. Second, the groups were asked to identify impacts related to these changes. Again the results were displayed and discussed. Next, the individuals were asked to select the three most important changes and the three most important impacts. A discussion followed and participants were asked what they believed to be causing these changes. Figure 18 features a summary of the results. Figure 18: Focus group activity results The focus group participants identified many changes, impacts, and causes discussed in the individual interviews, such as increased heat, deforestation, and unpredictable weather. However, the focus groups were unique in presenting the different priorities and perspectives of men and women. Regarding impacts from climate and weather changes, the men selected harvest decline as the number one choice while the women focused on human health. The men Back to Top 28 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 also prioritized human health impacts but in conjunction with livestock illnesses. This difference may be associated with men and women filling different household roles. Economic impacts were also noted by both men and women. However, men focused on opportunity cost of lost yields, while women focused on increased expenses. During the discussion, women stated that all changes and impacts (e.g., crop loss, sickness, and property damage) resulted in higher costs, and this is a major issue in the community. Another interesting observation was that the men listed deforestation and contamination as both changes and causes, showing the interconnectedness of these issues for rural Salvadorians. Both groups also discussed the importance of community action. The men suggested community efforts against contamination and litter while the women noted community environmental classes and In ARAS, the community united against a local coffee mill that is disposing untreated wastewater into the primary water supply. The government supported the community protests and ordered the mill to build a wastewater treatment system. This initial win has encouraged the community to go against larger industries including Kimberly Clark paper product factory. united efforts to protect their surrounding environment. Historical Interview Results One “life history” interview was conducted in each of the three departments visited. Interviewees were all male, and their ages ranged from 62 to 78. These interviews sought to identify perceived changes over time in weather, climate, farming practices, and other factors. The interviewees leveraged varying frames of references in recounting past events, including the civil war, eras of government policy, relocation, and changes in occupation. Two still cultivated basic grains; the oldest cultivated only vegetables for consumption. Changes in Agriculture and Farming Practices All interviewees recalled that fertilizer was not necessary “before” (and was also likely not readily accessible). About 25 years ago, interviewees began to use chemical fertilizer to improve yield given poor soil quality. One interviewee noted that fertilizer is “weaker” now— which might denote worsening soil chemistry rather than input potency. Two of the three interviewees noted increased quantity and resistance of pests that now attack crops, requiring use of pesticides of growing strength. All three reported that yields were hurt for various crops and that some crops can no longer be planted due to weather changes. Only one interviewee reported receiving technical assistance; farming practices were altered (to using no-burn) as a result. Back to Top 29 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Weather, Climate, and Environmental Changes The three interviewees felt that it is hotter now than in their childhood (or even compared to 20 years ago), impacting their work hours in the field and their general comfort level. All three noted that there were far more trees and wooded areas in the past. Loss of forest cover was attributed to destruction stemming from war (i.e., burning), cutting trees for firewood and income, and clearing land for livestock. Notably, all three also linked this deforestation to impacts such as loss of nutrients in the soil, rising temperatures, and/or occurrence of hazards (e.g., landslides, flooding). Also, all felt that rainfall and the rainy season have become increasingly unpredictable, beginning around 10 years ago. Two respondents shared their prior strong confidence in cabañuelas, a traditional form of weather forecasting where they observe the first 31 days in January to predict the weather for the next twelve months, and planting in April even if “soil was dry as dust” if this is what the cabañuela predicted. However, now they feel these traditions are increasingly less effective given growing unpredictability. Impacts of Disasters and Risk Management Two interviewees recounted that earthquakes have altered water sources, in terms of location (e.g., of springs) and supply over time. One farmer pointed to a stream with abundant fish which is now “just dry” as an example of how a hazard—or hotter temperatures—appeared to impact water supply and aquatic life. All interviewees recalled flood events, with one noting that “rivers cannot hold as much water anymore” beginning about 15 years ago. People previously lived on higher ground to manage impacts from swelling rivers, but this strategy is less used now. One interviewee chose to rent lands on higher ground, despite lower yields, in order to reduce the risk of crop loss due to flooding. Other issues discussed included the declining size of cultivated plots and conveniences due to improved roads and availability of vehicular transportation. Additionally, interviewees explicitly stated or implied that humans are responsible for many of the negative changes now seen and that “mistakes” or “sins” (e.g., deforestation) must be recognized and understood in order to rectify the problems observed. Back to Top 30 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Themes This section explores select observations and themes drawn from all discussions in the field and additional research. Themes will be discussed in the context of impacts on food security and livelihood of the interview sample. Existing Capacities of Individuals and Households The majority of farmers interviewed—in the individual interviews, historical interviews, and focus groups—showed some awareness of the changes in their surrounding environment. Many shared ways in which they had already begun to cope with changes observed. Below is a discussion of existing resources and capacity of these farmers to adapt to changes, as well as areas in which capacities can be strengthened to further improve resilience and enhance food security of farmers, given the long-term changes in climate projected for El Salvador. Access to Climate and Weather Information Access to accurate weather information is critical to make informed planting and crop selection decisions. Farmers in developed countries have access to high-quality and timely climate and weather data, and can learn about trends in climate without needing to sense them independently. The same is often not true for farmers in poorer countries, who are more on their own in discerning longer-term climate shifts and agriculture forecasts. Timeliness and accuracy of information is especially important for planting decisions of subsistence farmers because there are often no reserve inputs (e.g., seeds) to replant if the initial sowing is unsuccessful. Respondents Most farmers reported receiving climate and weather information from multiple sources. Many of the 42 total respondents reported multiple sources of 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% climate and weather information, with 60 percent identifying television followed by 31 percent stating radio (Figure 19). However, the television and radio sources were not agricultural forecasts but were Weather Information Source composed of the daily or weekly weather report. Some respondents stated that Figure 19: Weather information sources Back to Top 31 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 long-term forecasts were not available, and relied on their own experience or that of neighbors. Only seven indicated they received no information on the weather. most people had Respondents Although access to several sources of weather information, perceptions of their reliability and accuracy were low. The wide majority of interviewees felt that the 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% weather information they received was not accurate (Figure 20). The only interviewees who felt that the information was accurate or usually accurate were from Chalatenango. Opinion on Weather Information Accuracy In addition, women were far more likely than men to receive no weather Figure 20: Weather accuracy information or to lack more than one information source (Figure 21). No women reported using their own knowledge or experience as a source of weather information, and generally responded more positively regarding the accuracy received. of During information discussions, they it seemed that many women did not follow the weather or forecasts closely as it was less integral to their stated Figure 21: Weather information sources by gender roles as “housewives”, despite their participation in farm activities. An important step in adapting to climate change is availability and access to trusted sources of information on potential weather variation. There is a need to link farmers to climate change and variability information that is tailored to local, agriculture-oriented audiences. For example, local advisories can help farmers better plan field operations, avoid costs of re-sowing crops, and adjust varieties from long to medium or quick-maturing varieties if a shorter growing season is forecasted. A recent research project in India that provided farmers Back to Top 32 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 with timely, medium-range weather forecasts customized to each district may provide valuable lessons in the utility and challenges of this adaptation approach.32 As women appear to depend more on single sources of information or have no weather information at all, particular care should be taken to include gender considerations in designing information outreach programs. In addition, farmer’s concerns regarding the inability of the government to provide wise advice on weather forecasting and climate trends need to be better understood and addressed in order to bridge the gap between availability of information and its utility for farmer’s decision-making. Figure 22: Number of weather information sources by gender Cost, Availability, and Selection of Farm Inputs Farmers were already finding ways to decrease cost of farm inputs. In El Salvador, it was estimated in 2009 that the average farmer needs to invest over US$350 per year in agrochemicals and hybrid seeds, often representing half of their annual income.33 Almost all interviewees reported purchasing seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides, although some indicated they would occasionally use less chemical fertilizers to save on costs. A majority of interviewees shared that they saved seeds from their harvest when possible to reduce input costs of the following planting season; sorghum seeds were almost always saved, beans were usually saved, and maize was sometimes saved. Eleven of 34 respondents were also involved in government free seed programs, which also provided small amounts of fertilizer, to reduce spending on inputs. However, some respondents noted these free seed programs are often implemented at the local level and are highly political, and believed that such programs should be enjoyed by all and not based on political affiliations. An additional note of caution in reliance solely on government free seed programs is that it may limit diversification of seed types (e.g., more climate tolerant varieties) unless there is an active research and development effort by government to identify and distribute these varieties. Increasing the availability and variety of farm inputs can further lower costs and promote greater food security. When asked how they decide what items to buy, the majority reported basing decisions on availability and/or recommendation at their local agricultural supply 32 33 (Australian High Commission, 2011) (Instituto de Permacultura de El Salvador, 2009) Back to Top 33 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 store for varieties that are most effective that season. Limited seed varieties available in stores and high input prices may limit the ability of farmers to try more resistant seed varieties or other products. Working with agricultural supply stores presents one opportunity to share knowledge, technology, and new practices. There is also an opportunity to supplement purchased inputs with organics or less expensive alternatives. Some interviewees had begun to produce organic fertilizer and pesticides as a result of direct training, or by necessity in order to reduce the cost of purchasing chemical versions. While farmers often noted that chemical versions were more effective, many recognized benefits to soil quality of using organics as well as noting cost savings. Assisting with and promoting strategic use of these alternative inputs could decrease household farm expenditures and encourage more environmentally-friendly farming practices. Water Management and Food Security Of farmers interviewed, almost all relied primarily on rainfall as the water source for their crops, with three-quarters using only rainfall. This aligns with UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) statistics that almost 90 percent of farmed land in Latin America and the Caribbean is rain-fed.34 In El Salvador, this share is slightly higher as only 5 percent of arable lands are irrigated.35 A recent assessment led by the International Crops Research Institute found that “farmers’ yields in rain-fed areas are two to fivefold lower than achievable potential yields and that current rainwater use efficiency is only 35–45 percent in most rain-fed areas,” indicating an opportunity to strengthen the production capacity of farmers to enhance their yields and food security.36 Water management is an essential focus area in working with farmers to build resilience, adapt to climate changes, and maintain or improve food security conditions. Almost 90 percent of El Salvador’s annual rainfall comes during the rainy season and farmers have observed shifts in timing, overall quantity, and intensity of rains in the last 5-10 years.37 Because of the risk of crop failure associated with this unpredictability—which is likely to increase with climate change—smallholder farmers may prefer to reduce the risk of crop failure due to droughts before electing to make investments to improve soil fertility, crop varieties, and other inputs as a matter of sequencing spending to minimize potential losses.38 The literature body tends to agree that while periodic, severe droughts (i.e., meteorological droughts) may 34 (FAOSTAT, 2005) (World Bank, 2009) 36 (Wani S. e., 2009) 37 (Central Intelligence Agency) 38 (Hilhost, 2000) 35 Back to Top 34 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 result in complete failure of rain-fed crops and call for relief efforts, the majority of droughts consist of shorter dry spells (i.e., 2-4 weeks) which can be bridged through improved water management.39 Measures to manage water can be grouped into two general categories—those aimed at increasing rainfall productivity (e.g., improving infiltration and reducing evaporation) and those aimed at capturing rainfall for use. Both of these categories increase the efficiency of rain-fed agriculture and can boost the grain yield per unit of rainfall. Mulching and use of barriers are proven methods that improve infiltration, reduce evaporation, and increase yield for farmers in El Salvador and the region. The majority of farmers reported using mulching on their lands, and approximately one-quarter used barriers—reducing evaporation, run-off, and erosion, and increasing soil infiltration. There are many case studies quantifying the benefits of such practices. A controlled test at San Francisco Menendez School in El Salvador showed that stubble mulch applied on the soil surface increased maize yields by 90 percent in drought years as compared to adjacent plots not pursuing this practice.40 In Honduras, use of vetiver grass live barriers on sloped plots was correlated with net increases in maize yield in drought years versus similarly sloped lands without live barriers.41 These proven practices and other techniques to increase Case Study: Infiltration Pits “Some farmers in Central America dig infiltration pits along contours. Rainwater collects. During a dry spell, the water infiltrates the soil and is used by crops. Crops can grow up to maturity by using this conserved moisture. Farmers’ experience shows that even if there are only five days with rain in the whole rainy season, the crops can reach maturity using conserved and harvested water in the pits.” Source: Altieri, Miguel, and Koohafkan, Parviz. Enduring Farms: Climate Change, Smallholders and Traditional Farming Communities. Jutaprint, 2008 rainfall productivity—such as soil bunds, terracing, and contour cultivation—can be expanded to raise yield and improve resilience to unpredictability of rains. Capturing rainfall for use through rainwater harvesting (RWH) increases rainfall efficiency and can help bridge gaps in agriculture water supply to stabilize yields. While approximately 15 percent of farmers interviewed reported harvesting rainwater, the majority used stored rainwater for cleaning—indicating some awareness of RWH techniques but generally for domestic use, not for use on crops to bridge potential dry spells. The RWH method employed was almost always use of open barrels or rooftop runoff collection. RWH techniques for the farm, including micro-catchments, storage tanks, or farm ponds, were rarely observed. 39 (Wani S. S., 2009) (Winrock International) 41 (Hellin, 2001) 40 Back to Top 35 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Studies show that supplemental water Rainwater harvesting is being used at home and can be promoted in the fields. during dry spells in the amount of 50-200 mm per hectare in a season can help increase yield of staple crops by more than 100 percent, as compared to having no water during a dry spell. For small scale rain-fed farms, this may present the difference between losing all or a substantial portion of crops, and achieving yields that are comparable or near-comparable with non-drought years.42 One project in Tanzania found that micro-catchment systems improved maize yields by 120-152 percent during seasons with dry spells.43 This has clear favorable food security implications. The cost per hectare of pursuing more RWH in rain-fed areas can be relatively low, especially in comparison to investing in irrigation or public water infrastructure in hilly areas, and at a level that may be feasible for farmers to undertake individually or collectively, or an area for effective intervention by government or other organizations.44 Further, having RWH systems in place has been shown to positively impact farmers ability and decisions to invest in wells, pumps, fertilizers, and pest management, as well as increase planting of vegetables (for consumption or sale).45 With water cited as one limiting factor for raising livestock, RWH can also contribute to farmers capacity to maintain healthy and larger types of livestock for consumption or as an income diversification strategy. Food Security and Income Diversification Reduced yields of basic crops did not always correlate to perceived reductions in food security, especially when other coping or adaptation strategies were in place. While many individuals (69 percent) stated that they had lost significant portions of their crop yields and experienced death or harm to farm animals (42 percent) due to climate changes, several (38 percent) also indicated that there had not been an impact on the family’s food security. All of these responses came from Chalatenango and Cabañas. Responses were separated based on gender in order to determine whether different gender roles affected food security perceptions. Thirty seven percent of women and 40 percent 42 (Sharma, 2009) (Kayombo, 2004) 44 (Barron, 2009) 45 (Sharma, 2009) 43 Back to Top 36 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 of men said that their food security had not changed, despite last year’s lower crop yields and little or no sales of their crop. Diversification of income away from reliance on farming operations was an effective strategy being pursued by farmers for managing food security and improving resilience to climate risks. The weak correlation between yield and food security can be explained by many of these farmers having other sources of income. Typical income sources included sale of crops in some quantity (66 percent) and strategic husbandry and sale of livestock (39 percent). Of reported sources, while many were still tied to farm operations (e.g., on-farm employment), several were non-agricultural (e.g., security guard at local plant, employee in community potable water system unit, sales of homemade shampoo products). Approximately 75 percent of women sold other products (e.g., snacks, ice cream), while many men worked secondary jobs. In one instance, a man held three different jobs in addition to being a farmer (i.e., blacksmith, barber, bricklayer). Moreover, 30 percent of this group said they received remittances. It should be noted that these diversification strategies were Income diversification: In La Cuchilla a Peace Corp volunteer taught women to make organic shampoos that are packaged in recycled soda bottles. Since its inception, the shampoos have begun selling in local area stores—offering additional household income while using environmentallyfriendly production practices. activities that could be carried out by most households without reducing their time spent on subsistence crop cultivation, as many depend on seasonal labor. This suggests a preference for alternative income-generation that does not threaten the ability of the family to produce food for their own household. Diversification to non-farm economic activities is important in maintaining and enhancing food security of households by providing access to income for discretionary spending or potential savings. This is especially valuable in light of decreased yields cited by most interviewees, which impacts consumption, sales, and purchase of food—all which have income and spending implications. Also, “lessening dependence on farm income enables greater flexibility in managing...changes” that occur, including the unpredictability of weather noted by interviewees.46 A case study on adaptive capacity of farmers in Mexico and Argentina found diversity of income sources to be a key component of this flexibility, enabling farmers to “maintain functioning of [their respective systems] after being affected by a stressor” such as flooding or drought.47 However, care must be taken to promote activities that complement and 46 47 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007) (Wehbem M.B., 2005) Back to Top 37 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 do not jeopardize household subsistence food production, as these may potentially be viewed as too risky by some farmers. Diversification activities and opportunities should continue to be promoted and expanded. Many farmers are doing what they can to diversify their income sources, but are often limited by surrounding factors such as minimal off-farm employment opportunity, distance to larger markets, and lack of business development knowledge. Programs that raise human capital (e.g., education, skills development) and which create or broaden “networks” between communities (e.g., markets, communications) can strengthen capacity for small-scale enterprise and income diversification. Plan’s current scholarship program may be a platform from which to expand to build this capacity. Spending Priorities and Investment Decisions Household spending on goods to satisfy immediate needs is a necessary priority, but lack of strategic spending on durable productive assets may limit capacity. Regarding spending, the mode response from interviewees was that 50 percent of income was spent on household needs and 50 percent was spent on farming inputs. Similarly, those who were receiving remittances reported spending amounts received primarily on food, farm inputs, health, and clothing. Among the 58 percent who received or were receiving credit, nearly all report that borrowed money primarily goes to purchasing farming inputs needed for the season. In all categories of respondents, spending on durable productive assets—such as equipment or infrastructure to improve yield—was absent. Whether this is due to the nature of questions asked, or due to actual minimal spending on productive assets cannot be determined beyond doubt. However, it is within reason to infer that the latter may be true as the majority of interviewees had a subsistence lifestyle, with little disposable income and little ability to grow savings. Investment in productive assets is often considered an important strategy to enhance yield, generate new income, improve food security (through greater food supply or more funds to access food supplies), and alleviate poverty for farm households. In risky environments, productive assets can play dual roles by not only increasing production but also potentially shielding farmers from certain risks such as erratic rainfall.48 Farmers were already pursuing limited investment strategies when possible, but more attention must be given to sustainability of strategies selected. Many interviewees are practicing shorter term “investment” strategies such as purchasing small pigs, raising them, and selling them when money is needed for basic needs such as food, medicine, or farm inputs. 48 (Takeshima, 2010) Back to Top 38 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 However, these strategies are increasingly at risk given perceived climate change impacts noted, including perceived decreases in water supply (e.g., drying or contamination of rivers) and livestock feed available (e.g., lower sorghum yields)—limiting households’ ability to raise livestock. For those able to raise cattle, clearing of forested lands for grazing often exacerbates impacts on the environment and community, fueling trends of deforestation and land degradation. Ironically, many farmers recounted stories of cattle (their own or those of neighbors) being “washed away” by swelling of rivers or landslides following heavy rains—both of which are hazards tied directly to deforestation as well as larger climate changes. A reluctance to borrow money was prevalent among many farmers, which limits their ability to invest in longer-term productive assets. It is of note that limited access to credit was not viewed as a constraint; rather the most cited reasons for not pursuing credit were that it was “too risky” (given uncertainty of yields and thus repayment), and that “interest rates are too high”. This is consistent with other studies conducted among farmers in Chalatenango which found these two factors as the most significant contributors to farmers’ “unwillingness to commit their few assets to collateral requirements”.49 Better understanding the investment behavior of small-scale farmers in El Salvador and discussing these issues with them will be critical to any intervention aiming to encourage investment decisions; in particular, any intervention should recognize that farmers have legitimate fears over risking their limited assets for loans and work. The relationship between preferred income generation methods, spending decisions to meet immediate needs, and riskaversion to investments to potentially better meet future needs has direct impacts on household food security. Educating farmers and raising awareness of these interconnections can spur thinking towards longer-term investment and motivate adoption of sustainable practices. Exploring alternative strategies for encouraging on-farm investments, such as through collective activities or cooperatives, is an appropriate way to build on current investment behavior. Training and Technical Assistance Training and technical assistance activities can help in identifying and overcoming challenges towards sustainable implementation of taught practices. A clear distinction was made between training and technical assistance (e.g., extension services). Training was seen as a one-time, group event whereas technical assistance was longer-term, often on an individual basis and accompanied by supporting resources. The majority of interviewees had participated in one or both types; respondents in La Libertad tended to 49 (Shelley, 2004) Back to Top 39 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 indicate lower participation rates. Since the survey was implemented where Plan is active, Plan was the most cited implementer of training and assistance. Many respondents were involved in the Plan vegetable garden or poultry programs for health and food security and spoke positively about their experiences. Training and technical assistance by other organizations varied from new farming techniques (e.g., erosion prevention), sanitation (e.g., latrines, water filters), waste management (e.g., trash collection), among other areas where needs were identified. Identifying farmer’s constraints, priorities, and decision-making processes can help prioritize areas for potential intervention and customize measures to win farmer buy-in for strengthening capacity. New farming techniques taught were sometimes, but not always, employed. One example is in the area of organics. Nine people stated they were trained on making organic fertilizer or pesticide—five by Plan, two by their church, and one by another NGO. All nine were from Chalatenango or Cabañas, and five were male and four female. For organic fertilizer, six people reported using organics in conjunction with chemicals. For organic pesticide, only three reported using organics and all continued to purchase chemicals. Most respondents that used organics believed them to be healthier, safer, and better for the soil; however, chemicals deliver better results for yield. Organics were thought of as difficult and time intensive to produce, and not all inputs were readily available in the area (e.g., soil from a specific ant species). This type of farmer feedback is essential in refining training and assistance to target specific barriers to translating learning into implementation. In this example, when training in organics production, specifying a path for obtaining inputs during training or as part of technical assistance could increase adoption. Understanding that time and cost are prominent concerns, identifying organic mixes whose preparation requires less time and expense than traveling to purchase chemical variations at an agriculture supply store can help to win farmer buy-in. Another way to ease the production burden is to encourage people to work together to pool inputs, delegate work, and share product. Perhaps most importantly, organic variations must be tailored to farmer needs and shown to be comparably effective to chemicals in enhancing soil quality and addressing pests that are of greatest concern. Addressing such key concerns can maximize value and results of training and assistance efforts. Small-scale food production and its relationship to household food security is inextricably linked to factors including, but not limited to, access to accurate and timely information, appropriate inputs, income generation opportunities, appropriate and targeted assistance, and flexibility to adjust current practices and behaviors to suit changing conditions. These areas should be analyzed as a whole in order to determine adaptive measures that are best suited for households, communities, and regions. Back to Top 40 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Adaptive Farming Practices at the Household Level A review of the literature suggests that planned adaptation to climate change at the farmer level requires three basic steps: detecting a shift in one’s external environment, determining that it would favor a change in behavior, and undertaking that change.50 Interviewees were aware of changing weather patterns and environmental shifts, identified impacts of those changes, and half indicated taking conscious actions in response to changes they were seeing. However, it was difficult to isolate adaptive practices on the farm owing to perceived changes in climate patterns from other reasons for undertaking changes in farming techniques, such as farmer’s perceptions of soil fertility. Detecting a Shift Nearly all people interviewed showed an awareness of deviations from normal climatic patterns, with men and women consistently identifying similar perceived changes including heavier, more intense rainfall, hotter temperatures, and unpredictable weather. One farmer said that he felt these changes are “permanent and not the result of just a few bad years, and planting is becoming more risky,” while another noted that these changes were “not normal over the longer-term history”. As noted by other farmers, however, climate variability in El Salvador is a “normal” part of cyclical weather patterns, with droughts often occurring every year, especially in association with El Niño events. In addition, every year during the rainy season there is a short period of time without rain (canícula). 51 Although a lack of details in farmer responses precludes a rigorous analysis of the accuracy of farmer’s perceptions compared to historical averages, evidence from other countries is mixed on the ability of farmers to correctly perceive longer-term climate shifts. There is ambiguity over whether detection of changes equates to actual recognition of trends or stems from the tendency to overestimate the frequency of negative events.52 Half of the farmers who showed an awareness of a change in climatic patterns were undertaking some change in behavior to mitigate the negative impacts of changes they identified. Regardless of whether an interviewee reported having taken an action or not, most farmers had suggestions regarding what they would like to do, given adequate resources or opportunity, to alleviate the impacts of perceived changes. There was no correlation between a farmer’s knowledge of global climate change and his/her likelihood of taking any action to 50 (Burke, 2010) (FEWSNET, 2010) 52 (Cooper PJM, 2008) 51 Back to Top 41 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 respond to perceived climate changes, suggesting that education alone on the existence and scientific causes of climate change will not be enough to alter farming practices at the individual level. However, scientific knowledge can still complement local knowledge to help people understand why changes are happening and why they might need to try new ways to adapt to new circumstances.53 Although surveys are an imperfect way of gauging farmer’s perceptions, these results illustrate that recognition of a climate trend is only one factor—and perhaps not the most significant—involved in enabling adaptation to changing climate conditions. Adaptive Farming Practices One area widely recognized as an important factor for increasing the resiliency of agricultural systems is the identification of appropriate mixes of production activities that have the ability to help buffer or recover from negative impacts.54 Important adaption options in the agricultural sector include: crop diversification, mixed crop/livestock farming systems, using different crop varieties, changing planting and harvesting dates, and mixing lessproductive, drought-resistant varieties, and high-yield water sensitive crops.55 Agricultural adaptation therefore involves two types of modifications in production systems. The first is increased diversification that involves engaging in production activities that are drought-tolerant and/or resistant to temperature stresses as well as activities that make efficient use of the water and temperature conditions. Crop diversification can serve as insurance against rainfall variability as different crops are affected differently by changes in precipitation levels. A second agricultural adaptation strategy focuses on crop management practices geared towards ensuring that critical crop growth stages do not coincide with very harsh climatic conditions such as mid-season droughts or excess rainfall. Crop management practices that can be used include modifying the length of the growing period and changing planting and harvesting dates. Only a small percentage of these farmers were undertaking changes that could be viewed as active adaptation measures at the farm-level in response to increasing climate unpredictability and variability. Changes in farming practices indicated by farmers in response to perceived climate changes included earlier preparation and planting of cropland, improving irrigation systems for vegetables, and diversification of seed variety to spread risk; several others also indicated they would like to diversify the type of crops they planted. Many farmers appeared at a loss as to how they could respond to increased unpredictability; common themes that appeared in individual responses were growing uncertainty regarding the “real” start 53 (Riahan & M Huq, 2010) (FAO, 2010) 55 (World Bank) 54 Back to Top 42 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 date of the rainy season, which inhibits proper planning for planting decisions, and a frustration with lack of resources or know-how to counteract the changes they were seeing. One farmer whose crops had been over-inundated with rain last year was asked whether he had done anything to reduce the negative impacts of changing weather. He replied that he “didn’t know of any crop varieties that were flood-resistant.” Interviewees also showed a preference for timing their cropping decisions based on adequate soil moisture or waiting until rainfall had become steady, although the second most popular response was to rely on tradition and experience. Some reported that planting at the same time each year is safer because the start of the rainy season is variable, choosing to avoid the potential risks that might be involved in changing their traditional planting dates. Nearly all respondents noticed a change in the start of the rainy season or felt that it was becoming more “unpredictable”, and unprepared and they must “rush to plant.” Climate change projections for El Salvador indicate an increase of rain during the month of April, which could be a false signal of an early start Respondents when it arrives early their plots are 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Check soil When rain is Start of Tradition, moisture steady rainy season calendar for the rainy season with delays of the May rains.56 These “false starts” to the rainy season can have significant negative impacts on crop production, Response to: How do you decide when to plant? Figure 23: Planting decision making as seedlings may be lost if planted before rains are well-established and farmers must buy additional seeds and replant. This kind of loss would have a small but significant impact on poorer households, who may have already exhausted financial resources and obtained credit to buy seeds and other inputs. Farmers’ perceptions of and responses to soil fertility appeared to be a stronger factor in promoting innovations and changes in farming practices, as they were more likely to adopt techniques that helped improve their crop’s productivity and soil fertility. Increases in soil erosion and runoff as a result of increased intensity of rainfall events and increasing scarcity of water during the dry season will be important impacts of climate change in El Salvador on farmer’s crop yields and productivity.57 Planting trees around their cropland and leaving land fallow were the most common adaptation activities cited by farmers in response to perceived 56 57 (MARN, 2007) (Kundzeqiez, 2007) Back to Top 43 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 climate change impacts. Moreover, seven of the 19 farmers who reported using new farming techniques in the past several years did so in order to increase their crop yields and/or because they were trying to improve soil quality; each cultivated land on steep hillsides already subject to soil degradation. Many farmers also already employed practices that maintain or improve soil nutrients, including mulching (71 percent), zero tillage (64 percent), not burning the soil (55 percent), using some kind of a barrier (40 percent), rotating crops or leaving land fallow (26 percent), and using live barriers (20 percent). Sustainable soil management practices were not the only techniques utilized in response to soil degradation, however. An increasing use of chemical fertilizers as a result of decreasing soil fertility was another commonly cited theme throughout the individual and historical interviews. Adaptive practices that improve soil quality and crop yield will likely be welcomed by farmers, although other factors and incentives may influence implementation of these practices. Of the 50 percent of respondents who indicated they had not tried any new farming practices in recent years, nearly half indicated relying solely on “traditional techniques and methods”, suggesting a possible risk-aversion to exchanging familiar practices for those with unknown outcomes. Other studies in Central American countries and past experience in El Salvador suggests that farmers opt for techniques that maximize returns on labor inputs required for implementation; crops that help prevent run-off and erosion as well as serve other purposes such as sugarcane and pineapple have also been utilized because they provide additional household benefits.58,59 It is likely that the same preference for technologies that provide short-term and long-term benefits will hold true for adaptation to climate change, particularly for households with less land and monetary resources. Also notable were differences in the types of stated adaptive techniques by land ownership. Only one known renter indicated planting trees—as trees are long-term investments—around his farm, compared to four who owned their own land. These trends suggest that conservation techniques that need to be renewed annually such as mulching and certain types of barriers are more likely to be adopted on rented or sharecropped plots. Contrary to findings from other studies, neither land tenure nor plot size were determining factors in whether farmers were willing to try new techniques, although types of techniques employed varied. Evidence from other studies suggests that insecure land tenure limits the effectiveness of training and technical extension as farmers with lower levels of land ownership are less likely to adopt new farming techniques or methods.60,61 Additional cases 58 (Bunch, 1995) (Schrader, 2001) 60 (Schuck, 2002) 61 (Bezbaruah, 2002) 59 Back to Top 44 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 also indicate that farmers are less likely to innovate when their plot size falls below a certain size, as limited economies of scale on small farms for certain transaction costs increases the costs of inputs and decreases output prices.62,63 However, in this study farmers who rented were actually more likely to try new farming practices (50 percent) in comparison to owners (36 percent). Our results also suggest that farmers cultivating smaller plots of land are not much less likely to invest in new farming practices that would improve and safeguard their production. Approximately half of respondents who cultivated less than 1.5 hectares reported they had tried new farming techniques, compared to 30 percent of farmers cultivating more than 1.5 hectares. One probable explanation for these relationships could be because adaptation is plot-specific; in other words, it is not the size of the farm but the specific characteristics that dictate a need for a specific method of adapting to climate change. Understanding specific deficiencies on farmer’s plots will enable more targeted technical assistance with a higher likelihood of adoption. Community Action and Collective Resources for Adaptation Community and collective action initiatives are an effective way to foster stewardship of shared resources, provide a type of safety net, and promote environmentally sustainable practices. Many communities, even those without current initiatives, saw value in expanding this type of engagement. Interviewees in four of the 15 communities visited spoke of different types of initiatives within their respective communities to assist in farming operations, enhance resilience to hazards, and/or environmental management. Community ARAS, La Libertad El Jicaro, La Libertad La Cuchilla, Chalatenango Plan Verde, Chalatenango Community Initiative(s) Irrigation association providing members with scheduled access to water for farming Farming cooperative that offers credit to members, helps negotiate input purchases, and offers jobs for working cooperative lands ($3/day) Has community trash/recycling program, disaster prevention program (especially for landslides), and community organic fertilizer group Has community trash/recycling program, disaster prevention program (especially for landslides), and community micro-credit committee Community level initiatives can foster ownership of efforts and stewardship of shared resources. For example, the irrigation network in ARAS enables members to expand beyond maize and bean production to growing rice and tilapia, presenting new economic opportunities. Despite easier and more predictable access to water (as compared to areas without irrigation), 62 63 (Maddison, 2007) (Ashley, 2001) Back to Top 45 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 community members are conscious of not overdrawing or wasting water. One tilapia farmer spoke of working with owners of nearby grazing lands to recycle water from tilapia pools for pastures, showing value for collaboration and respect for community water users. Initiatives can also provide a type of safety net, equipping farmers with greater knowhow to effectively address recurring risks and hazards. National government training on disaster prevention in La Cuchilla and Plan Verde—areas prone to landslides during heavy rains—led to these communities authoring plans that are operationalized during rains, including preventative evacuations, central meeting points, and other assigned responsibilities. Given difficulty of access through the mountainous terrain of Chalatenango and the unpredictability of rains reported by farmers, local disaster preparedness is critical for enabling a timely and effective response to natural hazards. Moreover, social capital has been documented in El Salvador as fundamental in reducing disaster risk and as a positive feature for adaptation processes.64,65 Research and practice have shown that collective action institutions are very important for technology transfer in agriculture and natural resource management among small-holders and resource-dependent communities. They are also important for spreading information and technology practices for climate change adaptation. For example, in El Jicaro, members of the cooperative tested a new seed variety being promoted by the agricultural store through a pilot project and adopted its use after they saw it was drought-resistant and had high yields. In several Andean communities farmers have developed a knowledge system on climate change and its potential effects on their productivity through education and sharing observations on gradually changing weather patterns.66 In addition, environmental protection and sustainable farm practices can be promoted through community initiatives. As part of trash collecting and recycling programs in the two Chalatenango communities—designed with assistance from church organizations—households deposit all materials in a central location. This had positive immediate and long-term impacts on sanitation and the environment, and was being adopted by older community members and the younger generation. In La Cuchilla, there was also a subgroup that pools resources to mix organic fertilizer and shares the output. Organic fertilizer was recognized to be weaker than the chemical variation but known to be better for soil chemistry and used when possible. Interviewees in these four communities, as well as some in other communities visited, expressed a desire to create or expand community efforts. The focus group of men in ARAS, which did not yet have a civil protection committee, discussed creating such a group to respond 64 (Lavell, 2004) (Schipper, 2006) 66 (Meinzen-Dick, 2010) 65 Back to Top 46 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 to hazards. They also discussed implementing a trash/recycling program in order to reduce the volume of trash in rivers and creeks, a perceived cause of flooding, and had begun research on having their community pay to access a nearby municipal trash processing plant. Among other visited communities there were also suggestions for potential initiatives (e.g., reforestation). Another useful aspect of community actions in climate change adaptation is their potential to function as risk-sharing and risk-reduction mechanisms. Risk-sharing mechanisms such as cooperatives also allow farmers to accept risks in pursuing alternative livelihood strategies and innovating with farming practices without compromising their current food production. A more informal alternative would allow each household involved in a group to grow its own subsistence crops while all households in the group collectively experiment in alternative uses of land on another plot, with risks and returns shared in a predetermined amount. Such a collective arrangement could be promising because it allows for smaller groups where trust levels are high, avoids jeopardizing the food production of members (cited by one interviewee as a reason for not joining a cooperative), and the free rider problem is minimized. Another example is an innovative use of an index-based micro-insurance scheme in Bolivia that combines incentives for risk reduction and a flexible, people-centered index mechanism. Farmers identified as “good practitioners” by their peers farm reference plots similar in terms of temperature, precipitation, humidity, and soil type; these plots serve as indicators of whether production levels have been adversely affected by environmental factors—triggering a payout. The system encourages other farmers to match the reference farmer’s implementing efforts to reduce the effect of drought and excess rains because those farmers run the risk that otherwise their own plot will be more significantly affected than the reference farmer.67 Analysis of a set of sustainable community initiatives—two which involved communities visited in this study—suggests a set of common factors that contribute to the success of such projects in El Salvador68: 67 68 The vision, commitment, and hard work of those involved. Sound community organizing based on local needs, experiences, and culture. Development of appropriate teaching and training methods and materials. The ability to raise grant money and use available materials creatively. Linking economic, environmental and cultural issues to support community development. Creating opportunities for individuals to grow and develop. Developing alliances with other similarly-motivated communities. (Fundacion Profin) (Neşecan, 2007) Back to Top 47 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 At the same time, potential obstacles to community action also include: Unwillingness of individuals to join efforts owing to failure of previous cooperative efforts. A need to balance women’s “traditional” responsibilities with income-generating work. Challenges of learning unfamiliar skills and ways of thinking. Difficulties in finding markets and transport for products. Lack of local opportunities, drawing young people to work elsewhere or migrate abroad. Concerns over food security and a lack of extra income impeding conservation of some environmental resources. The types of community initiatives discussed are examples of initiatives which may resonate with other communities with similar circumstances and enabling factors. While collective action projects have certain limitations and drawbacks such as the potential to misrepresent priorities from a unified “community” or for elite domination of projects, it is an important strategy that should be considered in promoting environmental protection and adaptation to climate changes. 69 69 (Mansuri, 2004) Back to Top 48 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Recommendations Potential Projects for Implementation in El Salvador Leverage technologies such as cellular phones to expand technical assistance to under-served areas, link farmer to more specialized information on weather conditions and weather advisories for their locale, and access market prices for nearby towns to help farmers get the best price for their crops and products. Expanding technical assistance using technology: Many people have cell phones with cameras; if their plant is being attacked by a new pest or disease they are unfamiliar with, ask them to take and send pictures to Plan staff, who can then text back with key information. Assist farmers in pursuing non-farm economic activities or longer-term investment in productive assets and/or ventures when possible, with attention to selecting strategies that are sustainable and can generate continuous income without jeopardizing household food production. Educate farmers on various credit options, and experiment with alternative collective arrangements for promoting on-farm investments. Work with farmers interested in credit to identify suitable options given existing assets and repayment potential, and to complete paperwork—cited as one barrier to borrowing. Lay groundwork for community action projects in areas such as sustainable farm practices, waste management, and reforestation. Small community pilot projects can serve as success stories that expand participation. Leverage innovators and early adopters of sustainable practices as much as possible. With limited staff and resources for hands-on technical assistance, having well trained community members that are skilled in certain areas can have significant impact. Promote early successes of these leaders and their value to the community. Utilize existing networks to share innovative and accurate information. Many people report receiving information and decision making support from community church programs or agricultural stores. These networks should be connected with accurate weather information, environmental sustainability knowledge and agricultural, technological advancements. Future Work for FTF Volunteers in El Salvador Analyze dominant and emerging pests and diseases, and identify adequate management practices or natural pest control measures. Many farmers noted that pests were increasing in number and strength, and were no longer manageable using previous practices; several noted new types of insects or plant diseases they had not seen before that had significant impacts on select crops. Analyze soil quality in selected areas to identify specific deficiencies and determine immediate and longer-term measures for improving soil health. Improving soil quality is essential to sustaining and increasing yield. Pin-pointing Back to Top 49 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 deficiencies may offer guidance on appropriate corrective measures, such as suitable organic fertilizer mixes. Identify practical ways for farmers to diversify income away from staple crop sources. This could involve broad study across a number of communities, or a small scale demonstration project in one community, to document existing capacities, opportunities, and a potential roadmap for such diversification to occur. Identify ways to overcome specific challenges identified in this study so that awareness can be translated into actions. Examples of challenges identified in this report include economic limitations and risk perceptions. Targeted actions would include measures such as income diversification and adoption of sustainable farm practices. Raise awareness and engage farmers at the individual and community level on issues that promote enhanced collective security and sustainability (e.g., reforestation, community-level actions in recycling, disaster relief). Strengthening community networks can have positive impacts on the resilience of households in the face of weather shocks or production losses. Incorporating Adaptation Principles in Agriculture Program Design Select considerations for addressing climate change adaptation when designing new programs or activities to encourage sustainability of the agriculture sector are highlighted below. Understanding local perceptions is critical to designing interventions aimed at encouraging farmers to change their farming practices, techniques, and decisions. People may or may not make the link between observed changing climate conditions and impacts on food security, health, crop yields, and other areas. There is often a considerable bias towards maintaining “traditional” ways, and thinking that what worked in the past should work in the future—a perception that must be incorporated in any intervention designed to motivate change. Improving access to accurate and timely weather information (and longer-term forecasting on general climate shifts) can reduce uncertainty for farmers and enable them to better understand and adapt to changes. Farmers may or may not recognize the signs that climate conditions are changing, and evidence is mixed on farmers’ ability to correctly perceive longer-term shifts. Analyzing prevalent and emerging trends shared by farmers, both in terms of perceptions and scientific reasoning, is an important step in identifying appropriate interventions. Comparing perceptions to scientific evidence can provide a clearer picture of trends and potential solutions. For example, in El Salvador, farmers noted general increases in pests and diseases and were attempting to find ways to manage this change. Merging their observations with scientific knowledge can lead to identifying adequate management practices or natural control measures. Promotion of farming techniques that reduce the impact of rain on soil, reduce soil erosion and surface runoff, and enhance infiltration should be tailored to address household-specific priorities and constraints. In El Salvador, increased intensity of rainfall and scarcity of water during the dry season is expected as a result of Back to Top 50 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 global climate change, with negative long-term impacts on farming due to increases in soil erosion and runoff. However, not many of the interviewees used live barriers although they are useful to slow down rain on steep slopes, catch soil, allow for moisture infiltration, and can supplement family income. Solutions that provide multiple, tangible benefits such as fruit trees have often been preferred by farmers in El Salvador, although farmers with insecure land tenure may prefer to utilize other options that do not require longer-term investment such as mulching. Encouraging rainwater harvesting (RWH) on rain-fed farms is an important strategy for reducing vulnerability to rainfall variability. In El Salvador, some of the greatest threats to the agricultural sector will stem from increased recurrence of dry periods during July and August, in addition to increasing rain intensity. Few interviewees had secured or diversified sources of water for their farms. RWH systems include run-off storage for supplemental irrigation using storage structures such as farm ponds, earth dams, water pans, and underground tanks. RWH exhibits good returns on investments, yielding net profits of USD 150-600 per hectare in Burkina Faso and USD 110-500 in Kenya, with high replication potential globally. Income diversification, particularly non-farm income, is a key component to ensure food security under climate change, as relying solely on mono- or staple-crop production is more vulnerable to climate shocks and unpredictability. In El Salvador, because so much of the population is linked to the agricultural sector, returns to off-farm activities are likely tied to productivity in the agricultural sector, affecting demand for both agriculture and wage labor and off-farm goods and services. Considerations of impacts and context must be reviewed in designing income diversification programs to ensure total benefit. Back to Top 51 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Bibliography Ashley, C. a. (2001). Overview: Rethinking Rural Development. Development Policy Review , 395-426. Australian High Commission. (2011). Australians help farmers to adapt to climate change. Retrieved from Australian High Commission: http://www.india.embassy.gov.au/ndli/pa0611.html Barron, J. (2009). Rainwater Harvesting: A Lifeline to Human Well-Being. Retrieved from Stockhold Environment Institute International: http://seiinternational.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Water-sanitation/rainwaterharvestingpb090330.pdf Bezbaruah, N. &. (2002). Factors affecting cropping intensity and use of fertilizers and. Indian Journal of Agricultural , 169–79. Bunch, R. &. (1995). Soil recuperation in Cenral America: sustaining innovation after intervention. Sustainable Agriculture Programme of the International Institute for Environment and Development , 1-18. Burke, M. a. (2010). Food Security and Adaptation to Climate Change: What do we know? In D. L. Burke, Climate Change and Food Security. Central Intelligence Agency. (n.d.). The World Factbook. Retrieved from Central Intelligence Agency: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/ Cooper PJM, D. J. (2008). Coping Better with Current Climatic Variability in the Rain-. Agriculture, Ecosystems, and Environment , 24-35. Dilley, M. (2005). Natural disaster hotspots : a global risk analysis. Washington D.C.: World Bank. Encyclopedia of the Nations. (2011). El Salvador – Environmen. Retrieved from Encyclopedia of the Nations: http://www.nationsencyclopedia.com/Americas/El-Salvador-ENVIRONMENT.html FAO. (2010). Climate-Smart Agriculture: Policies, Practices, and Financing for Adaptation for Food Security, Adaptation, and Mitigation. Rome: FAO. FAOSTAT. (2005). Retrieved from FAO: http://faostat.fao.org FEWSNET. (2010). El Salvador Livelihood Zone 1. Retrieved from FEWSNET: http://www.fews.net/docs/Publications/sv_zonedescriptions_en.pdf FEWSNET. (2010). Statement: El Salvador. Retrieved from FEWSNET: http://www.fews.net/Pages/remote-monitoring-archive.aspx?gb=sv&l=en (2000). First National Communication on Climate Change in El Salvador to the UNFCCC. Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources. Fundacion Profin. (n.d.). Noticias. Retrieved from Fundacion Profin: http://www.fundacionprofin.org/fmra.html Germanwatch. (2011). Global Climate Risk Index. Retrieved from Germanwatch: http://www.germanwatch.org/klima/cri.htm Hellin, J. a. (2001). Impact of Vetiveria Zizanioides Live Barriers on Maize Production in Honduras. Oxford Brookes University. Hilhost, T. a. (2000). Nutrients on the Move: Soil Fertility Dynamics in African Farming Systems. London: International Institute for Environment and Development. Instituto de Permacultura de El Salvador. (2009). Instituto de Permacultura de El Salvador - Información. Retrieved from Instituto de Permacultura de El Salvador: http://www.permacultura.com.sv/inicio.html Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2007). IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Kayombo, B. H. (2004). Effect of Micro-Catchment Rainwater Harvesting. International Soil Conservation Organization Conference. Brisbane: International Soil Conservation Organization. Back to Top 52 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Kundzeqiez, e. a. (2007). Freshwater Resources and Their Management. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability . Cambridge University Press. La Ley de creación de la Comisión nacional de alimentación y nutrición. (2010). Retrieved from Ministerio de Salud. Lavell, A. (2004). The Lower Lempa River Valley, El Salvador: Risk Reduction and Development Project. In G. a. Bankoff, Mapping Vulnerability: Disasters, Development & People (pp. 67-82). London: Earthscan. Maddison, D. (2007). Perceptions of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa. World Bank Work. Mansuri, G. a. (2004). Community-Based and Driven-Development: A Critical Review. World Bank Research Observer , 1-39. MARN. (2007). Vulnerabilidad y adaptacion al cambio climatic de los pobladores rurales de la planicie costera central de El Salvador. Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (MARN). Meinzen-Dick, R. H. (2010). The Role of Collective Action and Property Rights in Climate Change Strategies. CAPRi Policy Brief Number 7 . National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. (n.d.). TRMM Monthly/ Seasonal Estimates. Retrieved from National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/central_america/anomalies.shtml Nelson, e. a. (2009). Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and Costs of Adaptation. IFPRI Food Policy Report . Neşecan, B. a. (2007). Sustainable Development in El Salvador: Principles in Practice. In La Florida. Permaculture Institute. Riahan, M., & M Huq, N. A. (2010). Understanding Climate Change from below. Bangladesh: ActionAid. Salv Aid. (n.d.). Integrated Family Farm Plan Project (2005-2007). Retrieved from Salv Aid: http://www.salvaide.ca/IntegratedFamilyFarmPlanProject.html Schipper, L. (2006). Climate Risk, Perceptions, and Development in El Salvador, Working Paper 93. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. Schrader, K. (2001). Barreras vivas de Saccharum sinense y Pennisetum merkeri. Retrieved from WOCAT: http://www.fao.org/ag/agl/agll/wocat/wqtsum.asp?questid=HON03 Schuck, E. N. (2002). The role of land tenure and extension education in the adoption of slash and burn agriculture. Ecological Economics , 61–70. Seligson, M. (1995). Thirty years of transformation in the agrarian structure of El Salvador, 1961-1991. Latin American Research Review , 43–74. Sharma, B. (2009). Rainwater Harvesting: A Lifeline For Human Well Being. Retrieved from United Nations Environment Programme/Stockholm Environment Institute: http://www.unep.org/Themes/Freshwater/PDF/Rainwater_Harvesting_090310b.pdf Shelley, B. (2004). Campesino Food Security, Risk Management, and Rural Development: Lessons from El Salvador. Slater, R. a.-M. (2007). Climate Change, Agricultural Growth, and Poverty Reduction. Retrieved from Overseas Development Institute: http://www.odi.org.uk/resources/download/1260.pdf Social Science Research Council . (2009). Topic 10 – Remittances, Consumption and Investment. Retrieved from Social Science Research Council (SSRC): http://www.ssrc.org/publications/view/96D00F02-4155-DE11-AFAC-001CC477EC70/ Solís, D., & Bravo-Ureta, B. E. (2005). Economic and Financial Sustainability of Private Agricultural Extension in El Salvador. Journal of Sustainable Agriculture , 26.2. Takeshima, H. a. (2010). Market and Climatic Risks and Farmer’s Investments in Productive Assets under the Second Fadama Development Project in Nigeria. IFPRI. UNDAC. (2010). Evaluacion de la Capacidad Nacional para la Respuesta a Emergencia. El Salvador: UNDAC. Back to Top 53 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 University of Michigan. (2008). Subsector Overview: Common Beans in El Salvador. Retrieved from University of Michigan: https://www.msu.edu/~bernsten/beanatlas/Country%20Pages-withGIS/El%20Salvador/1.SubsectorOverview/el_salvador_text_subsector_overview.2.htm USAID. (2010). USAID Country Profile Property Rights and Resource Governance: El Salvador. Retrieved from USAID. Wani, S. e. (2009). Rainfed Agriculture: Unlocking the Potential. Cambridge: CABI International. Wani, S. S. (2009). J. Past Trends and Future Prospects of Rainfed Agriculture. CABI International. Wehbem M.B., e. a. (2005). Social Methods for Assessing Agricultural Producers’ Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Change based on the Notion of Sustainability. Winrock International. (n.d.). Agriculture Growth in El Salvador. Retrieved from Winrock International: www.winrock.org/fact/facts.asp?CC=6159&bu= Winrock International. (n.d.). Lessons Learned: The Environmental Protection Project in El Salvador. Winrock International. World Bank. (2009). Climate Change Aspects in Agriculture, El Salvador Country Note. Retrieved from World Bank: http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/LACEXT/0,,contentMDK:22077094~ pagePK:146736~piPK:146830~theSitePK:258554,00.html World Bank. (2010). Disaster Risk Management in Latin America and the Caribbean: GFDRR Country Notes, El Salvador. World Bank. World Bank. (1998). El Salvador: Rural Development Study. Washington D.C.: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. World Bank. Identifying Appropriate Adaptation Measures to Climate Change. In Climate Change Adaptation in the Agricultural Sector: Challenges and Opportunities. World Bank. World Bank. (2011). Vulnerability to Food Price Increases in LAC, 2011: A Preliminary Analysis. Retrieved from World Bank: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTLAC/Resources/LAC_FoodCrisis.pdf Back to Top 54 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Appendix 1: Livelihood Zone Livelihood Zone Map Last Update: May 201070 Fieldwork was conducted in Livelihood Zone 1 (see green zones circled in red) in three departments: Chalatenango, the northern part of La Libertad and Cabañas. 70 (FEWSNET, 2010) Back to Top 55 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Livelihood Zone Information Back to Top 56 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Source: (FEWSNET, 2010) Back to Top 57 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Livelihood Zone 1 Seasonal Calendar Source: (FEWSNET, 2010) Back to Top 58 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Appendix 2: Field Survey Forms Individual Farmer Interview Questions Purpose of Farmer Interviews: Interview subsistence farmers to explore climate change impacts on food supply and security, as well as on potential hazards that threaten their livelihoods. Methodology: Sample to be surveyed is approximately 45 – 52 of 750 farmers that Plan International is currently supporting through the El Salvador Farmer-to-Farmer program. Interview format will be semi-structured conversations with farmers (aiming for 50 percent women). A template form for recording information will be used. If appropriate, ask select questions while touring farm operations. End by asking if interviewee has any questions for us. Ask them if they would like to tell us anything else related to the topics discussed. Additional information: o Internally, we will be meeting in the evenings daily to synthesize information and what we have learned/observed. Interview: Thank you for taking the time to talk with us today. We are a group of students from George Washington University in Washington, D.C., and are here working with Winrock and Plan International in order to learn about your work and the challenges you face. The goal of our interview is to understand the work you do on your farm, and how changes in weather and natural disasters have affected the life of you and your family. We will not share any economic information with your names, and will keep other information in confidentiality that you ask us to. However, we would like to be able to quote you about your experiences and difficulties that you face in farming. Survey questions: Questions are listed in the first column, elaborations and notes are provided in the second column. Table 1: Basic Household Information Department Municipality Community Gender 1 What is your name? 2 3 What is your age? How many adults and children are in your household? Adults __________ Children__________ 4 If there are children, are they in school? YES________________ NO____________ 5 If there are children, do they help farm? YES________________ NO____________ 6 What is your primary occupation? Do you do other work to supplement your family’s income? Farmer 7 Farm employee Back to Top 59 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Bricklayer Carpenter Animal Husbandry Other 10 Table 2: Basic Farming Information (for last 12 months / last growing season) (Point to note: Do farmers notice any changes/trends in the below information?) What crops do you grow and how much do Crop Yield Average? you yield? Sold Amt When Was this amount average compared to recent years? Maize 11 Did you sell any of what you produced? Wheat 12 How much? Sorghum 13 When? Beans 8/ 9 Rice _______ 14 Where do you sell crops? 15 Do you own livestock? If yes, what types, how many, how are they used? Have you recently sold or purchased livestock? Why? 16 17 YES________________ NO____________ Type Usage # Sold # Poultry Pigs Cattle Goats ___________ 18 How much land do you cultivate? (1.4 manzana=1 hectare) 0.1-1.5 ha_ (0.14-2.1 manzana) 1.5-3.0 ha_ (2.1 -4.2 manzana) 3.0-4.5 ha_ (4.2-6.3 manzana) 19 How many plots? 20 Where are they? hillside close far 21 Do you hire laborers for your farm operations? 21 If yes, how many? 21 What time of year/what harvest? 22 Table 3: Farming Practices What are your “farming techniques” that you utilize in relation to land use? Crop rotation/selection_ YES________________ NO____________ Intercropping Soil bunds_ Grass strips_ Back to Top 60 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Zero tillage_ Mulching_ Live barriers_ Agroforestry_ Others__ 23 Have you tried any new farming techniques within the past few years? If yes, what? 24 Why were changes implemented? 25 Where do you get your water for the farm? Bore well___ River_______ Drip irrigation________ Rainwater harvesting____ Canal___ Tank___ Pond___ Stream__ Well___ Others__ 26 Do you have an irrigation system for the dry season? 27 What are your farming inputs? Where do they come from? How much do you use per year? How much does each cost? YES________________ NO____________ Seeds: Amount ________ Est. Price ________ Origin _____________ Seeds: Amount ________ Est. Price ________ Origin _____________ Seeds: Amount ________ Est. Price ________ Origin _____________ Fertilizers: Amount ________ Est. Price ________ Origin _____________ Green manure: Amount ________ Est. Price ________ Origin _____________ Herbicides: Amount ________ Est. Price ________ Origin _____________ Insecticides: Amount ________ Est. Price ________ Origin _____________ Other pesticides: Amount ________ Est. Price ________ Origin _____________ 28 How do you decide what to buy? 29 What is your growing/planting cycle? 30 How do you decide to crop? 31 Do you receive any info on weather problems? If yes, from whom? 32 Do you store your havest? YES________________ NO____________ 33 34 Where do you store your harvest? Do you generally lose any of your stored harvest? YES________________ NO____________ 35 If yes, why? Pests Disease Back to Top 61 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Flood Other 37 Have you received any technical assistance and from whom? 38 Table 4: Economics Please tell us about your household consumption / spending… percentage in each category: inputs to farm production food buying household fuel health debt transport rent school savings other other 39 Do you receive remittances? 40 If yes, from whom/where? 41 42 What are they used for? Have you ever asked for credit from any source? 43 If yes, from where 44 If yes, what did you use it for? 45 46 If no, why not? What energy/fuel sources do you use in your household? 47 Do you have difficulty obtaining fuel sources? YES________________ NO____________ YES________________ NO____________ Table 5: Farmer Perception of “Hazards ” 48 In the past 5/10/15 years, have you seen any changes in weather? If yes, what? Potential prompts: rainy season: early late normal Overall rainfall: more less normal low normal Temperature: 49 “You mentioned _____ changes. Have you seen any impacts like change in crop yield, livestock, water availability and health...?” high crop yield livestock water health Other Back to Top 62 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 50 If yes, have you taken any actions to reduce negative impacts (risks) from the above changes and hazards? Change cropping pattern_ Shift from crops to livestock_ Change to more cash crops_ Change to more crops we will eat_ Reduce amount of livestock_ Grow low input crops_ Grow crops that use less water_ Cultivate some parts of the land and leave rest fallow_ Leave all land fallow_ 51 If yes, [even with making changes in your farming activities] do these weather changes have an impact on your livelihood and food situation? Crop loss Low yields Food scarcity Debt Increase Unable to pay loans Others 52 53 54 Who would you say has been most affected by changes in weather? What do you believe causes the changes you have seen? Have you ever heard of climate change? What is it? Men_ Women_ Children_ Elderly_ All the family_ Don’t know_ Thank you Thank you for your time today. Is there anything you would like to ask us? Is there anything else you would like to share? Back to Top 63 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Focus Group Discussions Outline Purpose of focus groups: Explore climate change impacts on food supply and security, as well as on potential hazards that threaten subsistence farmers in El Salvador. Contrast female and male perceptions on how changes in weather and disasters have affected livelihoods; contrast group interactions and responses with individual farmer responses to similar questions. The focus groups should provide a “community level” perspective versus the more individual level perspective of farmer and historical interviews. Methodology: Hold two (2) “focus group” of 5-8 individuals in one municipality/community during the second week of field research. One group will be composed of women, the other group will be composed of men. We are requesting to hold focus groups in one (1) community in one (1) of the following municipalities. Plan International should confirm these selections are feasible and appropriate: o La Libertad: San Matias (near river, has flood risk) o Chatalenango: San Francisco Morazan (little rainfall, no river) o Chatalenango: Nombre de Jesus (potentially prone to floods and landslides) Structure: o Icebreaker activity and introductions o Group activity on identifying and ranking issues related to changing weather and environmental conditions o Use provocative statements (e.g., based on initial findings in individual farmer interviews) to encourage ongoing discussion on select “prompts”. Group Introductions: Open with ice breaker activity. A note-taker will collect basic participant information as part of introductions. Introduction Department Municipality Community Introduction: Thank you for taking the time to talk with us today. We are a group of students from George Washington University in Washington, D.C., and are here working with Winrock and Plan International in order to learn about your work and the challenges you face. The goal of our meeting is to understand the work you do on your farm, and how changes in weather and natural disasters have affected the life of you and your family. We would like this session to be interactive and encourage you to share your opinions. Although we will audiotape this discussion, your identity will never be revealed, or connected in any way to your comments. While we may report quotes collected during this interview, at no time will we connect those comments with any individual. You are free to stop participating or withdraw at any time. Let’s go around the room and introduce ourselves. Please state your name, age, how many people live in your household, and how many help farm. (We will add a fun icebreaker activity too) Name Age # in house # help farm Participant 1 Back to Top 64 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Participant 2 Participant 3 Participant 4 Participant 5 Participant 6 Participant 7 Participant 8 Activity and Discussion “We’ve spoken to many farmers in this area. They’ve shared that they’ve noticed many changes in weather in the last few years. We are hoping to have a discussion with you on your opinion of the changing weather, and how this is impacting you and your community.” We’d like to do a group activity to identify and rank climate/weather issues observed by your community… First: Write down the changes in environment, climate and weather you have noticed on these cards. Second: Lets place the cards on the board/table and we will discuss the results: i.e. does everyone agree that “X”? Why do you think this has been occurring? (DISCUSSION) Third, write down on these cards how these changes have affected you or your community. We will place these cards above the “causes” of the changes previously discussed. They will be arranged into a “problem tree”, with the problems/issues forming the “roots” and the impacts/effects forming the “branches”. (DISCUSSION) Everyone has been given different colored stickers. Please place your stickers on the cards that you consider most important. (DISCUSSION) Potential Discussion Prompts: Please tell us about weather patterns in the last few years. Has weather been more unpredictable? Does the rainy season start earlier/later? Has the weather been more extreme? Is rainfall more/less? Is expected temperature higher or lower? Have there been outbreaks of pests and disease in your community. Have you experienced any unusual outbreaks in the past few years? What do you think cause(s) could be? Has there been an impact on crop yield, income, and your lifestyle from any of the above issues? If yes, what? How has your community responded? Please share your experiences related to natural disasters (e.g., floods, hurricanes, earthquake, land changes). - How has your community been affected? - Who is most impacted? - Has there been an impact on crop yield, income, and your lifestyle from any of the above issues? If yes, what? Back to Top 65 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 - How has your community responded? - Have you recovered from these disasters? What do you think the cause(s) of this could be? What have you done/can you do to reduce negative impact (assuming that impacts are negative)? Are you familiar with the idea of “climate change”? • Thank you for your time today. • Is there anything you would like to ask us? • Is there anything else you would like to share? Back to Top 66 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Historical Interview Questions for Field Research Purpose of historical interviews: Explore climate change impacts on food supply and security, as well as on potential hazards that threaten subsistence farmers in El Salvador. This set of interviews will focus on “historical depth” and may touch on the interviewee’s perception of evolution of issues over time - at the individual and community level. Methodology: Conduct three (3) “life history interviews” with older, well-respected farmers (at least one of whom will be female); one (1) older farmer interviewed per Department. We are requesting historical interviews with one older farmer in the following communities: o Cabañas o Chalatenango o La Libertad Each interviewee will also be asked to compile a timeline related to environmental changes and hazards observed on their farm/in their community. Introduction: Thank you for taking the time out to meet with us. We are a group of students from George Washington University in Washington, D.C., and are here working with Winrock and Plan International to help them and us learn about your work and the challenges you face. The goal of our interview is to understand the changes that have occurred in the past and how changes in weather and past disasters have affected the life of you, your family, and community. We will not share any of the economic information with your names, and will keep other information in confidentiality that you ask us to. However, we would like to be able to quote you about your experiences. Historical Interview Prompts: Questions are listed in the first column, elaborations and notes are provided in the second column. Table 1: Basic Household Information Department Municipality Community Gender 1 What is your name? 2 What is your age? 3 How long have you lived in this community? Table 2: Basic Farming Information 4 What crops do/did you grow? Maize Wheat Sorghum Beans Rice 5 Have you seen farming techniques change over time? 6 If yes, what? 7 Why were changes implemented? Back to Top YES________ NO_________ 67 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Table 3: Perception of Changes and “Hazards” (Complete a timeline along with questions/discussion) We are interested in learning about the environment and weather in your community, from when you were young until now. To help us understand this, we would like you to help us “map” important events and changes in your community on this timeline. We have drawn a timeline and marked important events that have occurred, for example, we have listed “before the civil war”, “during the civil war”, “after the civil war”, last year, and now. Please add important positive or negative events in chronological order on this line. Then we can discuss the causes of the events and their impacts. 8 Please tell us about weather patterns over time. Do you remember any important events? Have you seen any changes? ADD TO TIMELINE 9 If yes, what do you think the causes of these changes could be? 10 Please discuss other changes you have seen in your surrounding environment (e.g., forests, rivers). 11 How have you or your community been affected by the “…..” changes/problems you mentioned? 12 Who is most affected? 13 Are there traditional methods or knowledge you or your community used to adapt to changing climate/weather conditions? 14 Are those strategies still being used? 15 El Salvador has been hit by a number of severe weather events in the last decade, with much damage to the agriculture sector. Please share your experiences related to extreme weather events (e.g., floods, hurricanes, earthquake, land changes). ADD TO TIMELINE Examples: Storms Ida, Agatha, Mathew (2009-2010) Tropical Storm Stan (Oct. 2005) Earthquakes (Jan. and Feb. 2011) Hurricane Mitch (Oct. 1998) How have you/your family/the community handled these events? 16 17 How have you/your family/the community handled these events? 18 Have you noticed any trends in migration? Generational trends/tendencies? 19 If yes, why are people leaving? 20 Are people leaving now for different reasons than when you were younger? • Thank you for your time today. • Is there anything you would like to ask us? • Is there anything else you would like to share? Back to Top 68 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Individual Farmer Survey (Spanish) Back to Top 69 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Back to Top 70 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Back to Top 71 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Back to Top 72 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Back to Top 73 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Focus Group Discussion Outline (Spanish) Back to Top 74 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Back to Top 75 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Appendix 3: Community Information Table Department Libertad Municipality San Matias Community Las Flores Information on Community (Provided by Plan staff or Interviewees) Plan’s Presence – worked here 2 years Little crime - very tranquil community La Libertad San Matais El Jicaro 71 80% of the economy is agriculture and livestock Remittances – Families living in colorful houses in the community receive remittances. Primary production: maize, beans, sugar cane, (no vegetables) Livestock include: cows Often burn sugar cane to harvest (to scare snakes, sharp leaves). This is a bad practice but takes place anyway Sugar cane is generally harvested in March Harvest is 2-3 weeks minimum Farmers rent trucks to take the cane to sugar mills There are 3 sugar cane mills nearby in Cabañas Role of children on farm—Children, (10-12 years old) often get $3-4 working 6 - 11 AM to pay for school supplies; if family cannot afford to hire help, they pull their children out of school to work on family farm. Often, children help farm by bringing water/food to field, helping to carry things, house chores, or farm work directly. School year is January - October. Often children are older than their “grade” in school. Water must be purchased from private vendor (e.g., water truck) at end of dry season There is a farmers’ association Plan’s presence – New to community (less trust) San Lorenzo Cooperative operates within the community 71 Cooperative : Social Enterprise to share production of cattle and agriculture Founded 30 years ago through government land reforms Currently have 78 members out of community of 1342 total (300 families) Have a general assembly where elect a board and president that sit for 3 years with 2 term maximum Current president is the youngest in history (elected because the cooperative wants to encourage young to stay in the area and to stay in farming) Shared land for grazing 450 heads of cattle and have Information about the cooperative was received from interviewees Back to Top 76 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 La Libertad Tacachico Huisisilapa La Libertad Tacachico ARAS 72 a well to supply houses and to supply the cattle New people cannot join because no one will give up their limited lands that were originally paid for Shared machinery (tractor, machinery for making cattle feed) If a member passes away, the land goes to the spouse followed by children Operates through a bank credit which is re-paid through production After loan payment the profit is used to give retirement payments to elderly and then divided among members based on number of days worked Plan’s presence - more than 20 years More developed than San Matais Strong agriculture sector Key production: rice, livestock, tilapia, loroco (edible flower), basic grains, watermelon No water in dry season Comprised of many refugees from the civil war who had fled from Chalatenango to Honduras and returned after 7-10 years Well organized, with strong women’s association Has a community center that is teaching women and girls embroidery and to sell the products More developed than San Matais Strong agriculture sector Key production: rice, livestock, tilapia, loroco (edible flower), basic grains, watermelon This is an irrigation association that manages water resources; has water all year round. Inside ARAS, many groups (e.g., aquaculture, livestock, loroco, rice) Serves as “credit” source to members. Different interest rates offered by credit organizations depending on what product is being promoted/pushed at the time (e.g., currently low interest rate for tilapia to help this sector) A tilapia production company exists within ARAS.72 Producing tilapia in the area for 20 years; Began with technical assistance program from the Taiwanese Mission. Three years ago the cooperative’s tilapia production became an enterprise. Now have people that have trained in aquiculture at university and they train all of their own employees. They received 60k from the government and then farmers matched the funds receiving stocks in return. Currently have 105 members and employ seven people. Production cycle is in three phases (reproduction, reversion, and development) and lasts 45 days. Produce 3 million baby tilapia per year. Information about the tilapia company was received from the director Mario Back to Top 77 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Chalatenango San Francisco Morazan Higueral Chalatenango San Francisco Morazan La Laguna Sell throughout the country but primarily in La Libertad and 55 local tilapia farmers nearby. Water is from the irrigation system and if get too much water during rains they release it into nearby fields. Currently digging a new pond and expanding. The director reported that “it has been a very good, strong, safe business” and he could not name any challenges, issues, or bad years. High elevation in mountains Crops include: mango, avocado, pineapple, orange, etc. Had received some support from World Food Programme Plan and Ministry of Health provided training on child nutrition. Trained 4 women to weigh children and track weight to note health, give advice on nutrition. Water is piped from springs to nearby large town Has a Peace Corp Volunteer The community has 300 manzanas of shared land that people can request to crop. The people do not pay rent for land but leave mulch and sorghum to maintain it. Grazing land is rented for $6 per head of cattle. The money is used to maintain fences and water. The land is distributed by request not proportional to farm size. Almost all people have individual lands. Teosinte La Cuchilla A very active Peace Corp volunteer is present and has helped on the farms, teaches about the environment in the local school, and works with women on operating small business such as making and selling organic shampoos. The community Catholic Church operates many community groups. They have been around for many years but really flourished 5 years ago. The groups consist of men and women (told only a minority of women do not participate) Church Group: focused on the mass and teaching about religion Social Group: Organizes cleaning and environmental projects in the community. The community pays to send the leader around the country for trainings. He then returns and shares the lesson with the group. People have been taught about climate change, disasters, and sustainable practices such as not burning the land. Civil Protection Group: organizes workers during emergency; for example last rainy season all worked together to cleanup a mudslide. This group also watches for dangers and warns people. The school is the local evacuation shelter but has not had to be used for any hazards yet. Micro-Credit: an NGO began a micro-credit group 3 Back to Top 78 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 La Laguna Plan Verde Nombre de Jesus Nombre de Jesus Junquillo Quipure Cabañas Ilobasco San Jose Calera Cabañas Ilobasco Huertas Sensuntepeque Los Yugos Cabañas Sensuntepeque years ago that has since split into two groups with a combined 70 members Has a community organization that coordinates NGO activities There are three springs nearby but the water is not potable and only used for cleaning. Plan built a water pump but when turned on the pipes burst and it broke. The community has gathered money to buy replacement materials and is now working with Plan and the mayor to fix it. Very poor area Interviewed only women as Plan works with women here Poorest and driest community visited so far 110 families; houses are far apart Trees include: banana, coconut, mango, maize Skinny cows Very dry and dusty. Not as steep as Chalatenango but much rockier and bumpier. Took approx. 60 minutes for us to get there from the last paved road. A lot of land with dry grass (no crop stalk remnants) unlike other communities Stone fences and dry trees; a bit “greener” higher up Impassible at 4 points during rainy season due to rise of water level and stones blocking paths. Uncertain how long this takes to clear (“it depends” how long City Hall takes to move debris) Las Marias *The following information was taken from conversations with Plan staff during field visits. The team requested additional information on each community, but did not receive it. Back to Top 79 Capstone Report – May 12, 2011 Appendix 4: Rainfall Patterns Percentage of Total “Normal” Rainfall73 The following maps show the amount of rainfall experienced in September 2010 and October 2010 as a percentage of the total “normal” rainfall, with “normal” defined as a 20-year average. As observed by the majority of farmers interviewed, there was above average rainfall in September and below average rains in October. 73 (National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center) Back to Top 80