December 2015 - DataSsential

DECEMBER 2015
FoodBytes
2016
FOOD
TRENDS
4 MACRO TRENDS
THAT WILL REDEFINE THE INDUSTRY
5 MICRO TRENDS
YOU ABSOLUTELY NEED TO KNOW IN THE YEAR AHEAD
10 FLAVORS
THAT WILL KEEP THINGS INTERESTING
DECEMBER 2015
FoodBytes
Seared Steak & Charred Nectarine Salad from Hello Fresh delivery service exemplifies two of
this year’s trends – “Foodservice Comes Home” and “Charred & Burnt.”
CHANGES BIG AND SMALL
DATASSENTIAL PUTS IT ALL INTO FOCUS FOR THE YEAR AHEAD
In deciding which trends will impact the industry in 2016, this year Datassential wanted to focus on both the macro-level trends
that are redefining the industry, as well as the micro trends that are impacting specific ingredients or segments in the shorter
term. We looked at the major trends that are influencing the overall culture and economy, from generational shifts to
economic drivers, and combined them with our industry-leading data from services like MenuTrends and LOCAL, to
understand how the food industry will be affected in the year ahead.
We see how demographic changes will affect U.S. cuisine and blur the lines between “global” and “American.” We look at the
huge investment in the food delivery sector, which is building a massive infrastructure to deliver traditionally away-from-home
foods directly into the home. We show you how focusing on hyper-regional flavors and dishes can help you connect with
consumers. We also discover how alternatives are disrupting foundational ingredients, like milk or flour.
At the macro level, 2016 will be the year of charred and burnt menu items and pulses. You’ll see the savory trend continue to
evolve into the “new, new savory,” which transforms traditionally sweet items into dishes that may be entirely savory, like
yogurts and oatmeals. Meanwhile, juxtaposed concepts and food halls offer a little something for every type of consumer. We
also bring you the top 10 flavors and ingredients that you need to know, from espelette to berbere.
Together, these trends can help you to make your products and brand more personal for the consumer, by crafting a trenddriven story and customizing dishes, products, and concepts that speak directly to customer needs and wants. To better
understand how to leverage these trends, contact Datassential today and schedule a presentation of these trends for your
organization, where you can ask questions and dive deep into the data and research. Together we’ll help you respond to these
trends in the next year. Contact Dave Jenkins at 847-903-5744 or dave@datassential.com.
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macro 1
DECEMBER 2015
Boston’s Bon Me started as a food truck
and has now grown to 4 restaurants and
6 food trucks. It specializes in banh mi,
the Vietnamese sandwich.
FoodBytes
CUISINE
INTEREST
don‘t call it ethnic
American Food
59%
Boomers
56%
Gen X
50%
Gen Y
47%
Gen Z
Southern Food
40%
Boomers
41%
Gen X
37%
Gen Y
31%
Gen Z
Vietnamese Food
23%
17%
16%
8%
Boomers Gen X
Gen Y
Gen Z
GENERATION Z WILL ACCOUNT
FOR 40% OF THE POPULATION BY
2020. FOR THIS GENERATION,
ETHNIC CUISINE IS SIMPLY 'CUISINE'.
Based on demographics alone, a more diverse, global cuisine is
inevitable in the United States. Generation Z, born 1997 or later,
comprises only 20% of the U.S. population today, but will account for
40% by 2020. For this generation, ethnic cuisine isn’t ethnic cuisine –
it’s simply “cuisine.” Indeed, nearly half, or 47%, of this generation is
“ethnic” or non-white, vs. only 28% of Baby Boomers and 38% of
Generation X. Not only is this a multicultural generation itself, but it
is also comparatively more interested in cuisines like Korean or
Vietnamese compared to other demographic groups – a quarter of
Generation Z is interested in Indian cuisine, compared to 11% of Baby
Boomers (see sidebar). Because they are more comfortable with
these cuisines, they are moving beyond painting ethnic cuisine with a
broad brush, overall and even in reference to specific cuisines, and
are instead focusing on individual dishes. Instead of going out for
Mexican or Japanese food, they may go out for tacos or ramen.
These changes will have a wide-ranging impact throughout the food
industry – it simply doesn’t make sense to have a broad “ethnic food”
strategy anymore. Instead, you have to incorporate global foods into
the general strategy while zeroing in on specific foods and flavors.
Of course, this transition will also impact all demographic groups,
who will be exposed to more dishes and flavors than ever before.
Indian Food
19%
20%
Gen X
Gen Y
25%
11%
Boomers
Gen Z
Generation Z is comparatively less interested in
well-established cuisines than other generations
and more interested in emerging multi-cultural
influences, like Vietnamese and Indian cuisines.
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macro 2
DECEMBER 2015
FoodBytes
Journalist and
cookbook author
Mark Bittman left
his job at the New
York Times to join
vegetarian delivery
startup Purple
Carrot. “It is a
crowded space,
but it’s a growing
space,” Bittman
told NPR when
asked about the
number of meal
delivery startups.
At Left: Purple
Carrot’s red lentil
stew with
cranberries.
foodservice comes home
Next-generation consumers are not only comfortable with technology, but demographic groups like Generation Z are dependent on
it – and they are using it to bring the best parts of eating out into their home. Consumers across demographic groups grow
increasingly more comfortable with ordering goods and services online every day, from books to taxis, and a majority of consumers
have a powerful computer in their pocket to do the ordering – 64% of all American adults own a smartphone, a figure that jumps up
to 85% for consumers ages 18-29, according to the Pew Research Center.
A wealth of startups and established players have been taking advantage of these trends, building a vast infrastructure dedicated to
one thing – getting food directly into the consumer’s house. In fact, capital investment in online ordering is expected to reach over
$1 billion for the first time this year, nearly double what was invested in 2014. There is certainly an opportunity – consumers aren’t
necessarily engaged with most at-home food. In fact, 44% of consumers say they eat at home because it’s comfortable, and 30%
say it’s because the TV, computer, or some other piece of technology/equipment is at home, while only 14% said it’s because they
crave at-home food. Consumers are more excited about away-from-home leftovers than most of the food they make at home.
These changes are impacting the broader food landscape. Restaurants have to consider how food travels, if it reheats well, and the
ease of their online ordering systems. Earlier this year Olive Garden brought back its “Buy One, Take One” promotion, with a second
meal packaged and designed to be reheated the next day. Consumer packaged goods companies will also have to react to the
threat as the away-from-home sector continues to look for ways to eat into the at-home dollar.
LEVEL OF EXCITEMENT WITH FOOD AT HOME
based on preparation method
Full
scratch
50%
Consumers are more excited about away-from-home
leftovers than they are most of what they eat at home.
Mostly
scratch
35%
Mostly
0
prepared
foods
25%
4
Home
leftovers
28%
AFH
leftovers
41%
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macro 3
DECEMBER 2015
FoodBytes
7-Eleven has featured Czech kolaches in
select Texas markets (Texas has one of
the country’s largest Czech-American
populations) and Faygo Redpop Slurpees
in locations around Detroit, Michigan,
where the brand is a regional favorite.
“We want to bring our customers the
local products they love and grew up
with,” a representative said.
hyper regional
St. Louis is only a short day-trip across the state of
Illinois from Chicago – a little over 300 miles away,
or about 5 hours. Yet, each city has its own,
distinctive food culture, with dishes and
ingredients that you are far more likely to find in
that metro area than anywhere else in the country
– Italian beef and mostaccioli in Chicago, or Provel
and toasted ravioli in St. Louis.
In the 1980s it was all about understanding
national trends, in the 2000s we focused on trend
differences in the major regions (West, Southwest,
Midwest, Northeast), and today we are drilling
down even more in order to connect with
consumers by understanding truly local trends
driven by smaller metropolitan areas. Because
even small geographical distances can have a huge
impact on what consumers see and want,
Datassential’s LOCAL tool crunches the numbers
to see which foods index higher for particular
metro areas – seafood and fish varieties, for
instance, are consistently hyper-local.
By understanding these differences, the food
industry can connect with consumers on a more
personal level, and even the largest chains can
feel smaller to consumers (and consumers
consistently tell us that smaller is better). Fast
casuals have been particularly good at this – Blaze
Pizza locations in Chicago feature giardiniera as an
option (the third highest indexing food in the
area), while Shake Shack locations often feature
local favorites, like Kreuz Market jalapeno cheese
sausages in Austin, Texas, or Philly soft pretzel
concretes in Philadelphia. Operators can also
extend these menu items to other markets, giving
consumers in one metro area a taste of another
city across the country – “try the Miami burger!”
in Portland, for instance.
HIGH INDEXING FOODS
MIAMI
Churrasco
936
Conch
833
Key Lime Pie
296
PHOENIX
Green Chile
515
Prickly Pear
352
Machaca
292
SAN ANTONIO
Guisada
2,113
Chalupa
1,514
Shiner Bock
814
BOSTON
5
Haddock
1,618
Bulkie Roll
1,11
Chowder
566
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macro 4
DECEMBER 2015
FoodBytes
ALTERNATIVE MILKS
Soy Milk
Rice Milk
Almond Milk
Hemp Milk
Coconut Milk
Oat Milk
ALTERNATIVE
FLOURS
Almond Flour
Chickpea Flour
Rice Flour
alternatives everywhere
Increasingly, today’s chefs and manufacturers aren’t just looking for a new
flavor, they are looking to completely disrupt an entire category. Now even
ubiquitous, foundational foods may be completely transformed using
alternative ingredients. Chefs across the country are experimenting with housemilled flours made from nuts, pulses, or alternative grains, while CPG companies
both large and small introduce new varieties of milks or nut butters. Look for
alternative meats (made with plant-based proteins), sweeteners (date sugars or
rice syrups), and snack foods (kale chips, ancient grain popcorn) in the years
ahead.
Buckwheat Flour
Spelt Flour
Coconut Flour
Almost no category or ingredient is safe – just look at water, from the coconut
water trend of a few years ago to new variations made from maple sap, aloe,
cactus, or birch showing up today. Manufacturers need to be on the offensive –
will someone disrupt your category before you do?
ALTERNATIVE NUT BUTTERS
ALMOND +121% growth
BUTTER on menus over the past 4 years
CASHEW +998% growth
BUTTER on menus over the past 4 years
PISTACHIO +349% growth
BUTTER on menus over the past 4 years
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micro 1
DECEMBER 2015
FoodBytes
CHARRED
& BURNT
Six years ago we were focused on smoke, and now that trend has been left on the fire and been transformed into “charred”
and “burnt.” Today these terms can be found on 7% of menus, up from only 2% in 2005, and you are seeing it used with almost
any ingredient – corn, tomatoes, onion, cauliflower, meats, and even cocktail ingredients. You can start the day with
(purposely) burnt toast and end the evening with a burnt marshmallow dessert. Not only do chefs have the equipment to char
foods, with the proliferation of wood-burning ovens and hearths, but consumers are also more open to the bitter flavors that
charring and burning imparts. At ShopHouse, Chipotle’s growing Asian fast casual concept, customers can top their customized
bowl with charred corn flavored with garlic and sesame, while at King + Duke, in Atlanta, the hearth grilled cheese sandwich is
served with charred tomato soup.
micro 2
CHARRED
THE NEW,
&
BURNT
NEW
SAVORY
“When I put this dessert
on the menu, I did not
expect people to like it
as much as they did,”
pastry chef Michael
Holland said of his
“Popeye” dessert,
which features elements
like a spinach sponge
cake, olive oil
buttercream, and fried
spinach.
The “New Savory” focused on adding a touch of savory to sweet dishes – some bacon on a donut, or salt in caramel. Now chefs
are taking this to the extreme, completely transforming traditionally sweet dishes into savory-dominant versions. This trend is
also stretching beyond the dessert menu, where savory ice creams (in flavors like avocado and goat cheese) are trending, to
the breakfast menu – look for savory oatmeals that swap out the brown sugar and maple syrup for sriracha and poached eggs,
to savory yogurts in flavors like tomato and sea salt at retail from brands like Blue Hill and Sohha. These savory ingredients can
also transition to the lunch or dinner menu, with a base of savory, house-ground oatmeal under a hearty pork belly or a
charred vegetable dish served over a swipe of savory oatmeal.
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micro 3
DECEMBER 2015
FoodBytes
JUXTAPOSED
CONCEPTS
At Jockey Hollow, at the Vail Mansion in Morristown, N.J., there are four
concepts under one roof – The Rathskeller beer hall, the Oyster and Wine Bar,
the upscale Dining Room, and the Vail Bar. It’s all overseen by restaurateur and
developer Chris Cannon, chef Kevin Sippel, and pastry chef Erica Leahy.
JUXTAPOSED CONCEPTS OFFER SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE
UNDER ONE ROOF, BUT WITH A CENTRAL PHILOSOPHY
Why limit yourself – and the customer? That’s what a number of chefs and developers across
the country are asking, opening brand new concepts that feature multiple restaurants under
one roof, but with a central theme and ethos that tie it all together. These concepts may be
designed to take a restaurant through every daypart, with a coffee bar and bakery counter
for the morning, a casual sandwich or pizza spot at lunch, and a fine dining restaurant and
cocktail bar at night. Some concepts may also allow a chef to indulge multiple ideas and
influences. A year ago Seattle chef John Sundstrom moved his restaurant, Lark, into a new
building, which now also features Bitter/Raw, a crudo, charcuterie, and cocktail bar; Slab, a
takeout sandwich and pie counter that shares the Lark kitchen; and Off the Record, a private
dining space beneath Lark. With multiple concepts, operators can also entice a wider range of
customers, from those looking for a multi-course, fine dining experience to those who want a
more casual meal or just a cocktail or beer. Operators throughout the industry can adapt this
model to their own needs, whether it’s distinct restaurants in one space or sectioning a
restaurant to appeal to different needs and demographics. When Chicago chef Tony
Mantuano revamped his fine dining Spiaggia last year, the remodeled restaurant included a
relaxed lounge with a la carte dining options (including carbonara by the gram) and a new bar
that ushers in a craft cocktail program, while Red Robin is dividing its restaurants into three
separate sections – a main dining room for families, a bar area for adults, and a modern
lounge for teens.
Chicago chef Iliana Regan has become an expert at juxtaposing concepts under one roof; many
have proven so successful that they have evolved into their own restaurants. She regularly
holds weekend pop-ups at her fine dining restaurant, Elizabeth (top), where the lines around
the block for her “doughnut and dumpling socials” (middle) were the inspiration for Bunny,
her microbakery set to open next year, which will transform into WunderPop, a pop-up
restaurant, each evening. The first iteration of WunderPop will feature ramen (bottom), which
is the inspiration behind Regan’s next venture – a ramen shop next to Elizabeth.
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DECEMBER 2015
FoodBytes
PULSES
The United Nations has declared 2016 the “International Year of Pulses,” bringing awareness to these legumes harvested for
dry grain – lentils, beans, chickpeas, etc. “The International Year of Pulses 2016 aims to heighten public awareness of the
nutritional benefits of pulses as part of sustainable food production aimed towards food security and nutrition,” the
organization announced. Pulses are also part of the trend toward functional foods – also known as “Healthy 3.0” – and can
form the basis for a protein bowl or other energy-packed menu item, or even act as a potential meat substitute. Pulses like
lentils and chickpeas have been growing steadily on menus in the past decade – chickpeas are up 290% on menus since 2005,
while lentils are up 69%.
micro 5
Chicago’s Latinicity, from chefs
Richard Sandoval and Jose
Garces, has 12 food stalls, a full
restaurant, a retail store, and a
lounge with a full bar.
FOOD
HALLS
Food halls have become impossible to ignore. These “food courts for people who hate food courts” are a major influence in the
industry today, even inspiring on-site operators (hospitals, colleges, business) and retailers to take inspiration from the food
hall design and atmosphere. For operators and manufacturers, this trend doesn’t necessarily mean you have to be in a food
hall, but it does mean have to pay attention to them and how they are influencing menus and concepts, like food trucks did in
the past, while also understanding how food and retail can leverage each other. There are a dozens of new food halls
scheduled to open across the country in the next few years, including a number of food halls that focus on a single trend or
cuisine, like Anthony Bourdain’s street food hall or the Nordic food hall planned for New York’s Grand Central Terminal.
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DECEMBER 2015
FoodBytes
NEXT-LEVEL FLAVORS
10
What’s the next wasabi? Or sriracha? Datassential’s MenuTrends crunches the numbers on the flavors and
ingredients that have been growing rapidly at innovative operators across the country. These are the nextgeneration flavors from around the world – Spain, France, Japan, the Middle East, Italy, Africa, and beyond. If
cutting-edge flavors matter to you, keep this list handy in 2016.
Squash, radicchio with
Treviso, bay leaf, and
espelette at New York’s
Rebelle.
Roast brussels sprouts
and heirloom carrots,
pear mostarda glaze, and
bagna cauda at
Vancouver’s Nicli’s Next
Door.
Roasted cauliflower with
green apple, golden
raisin, lovage, berbere
spice, and salmon caviar
at Local Kitchen and Bar
in Ferndale, MI.
1
PADRON PEPPERS
2
PISTOU
3
ESPELETTE
4
SUMAC
5
MOSTARDA
6
SORREL
7
ROMESCO
8
TURMERIC
9
SHISO
10
Like shishito peppers, every so often one of these peppers grown in
Northwestern Spain packs a punch of heat.
Sometimes called “French pesto,” this mix of garlic, basil, and olive oil is a staple
in Provencal French cooking.
Also called piment d’Espelette, these bright red peppers are produced in France’s
Basque region and often found dried or powdered.
The dark red berries of the Middle Eastern sumac bush are typically found
powdered and sold as a spice – it has a tart, lemony flavor.
An Italian condiment in which fruits are candied and preserved with a bit of
mustard seeds, powder, or oil, often accompanying meats.
This green leafy plant has a citrusy, tangy, lemony taste, and is often used in
salads, egg dishes, or soups.
This bright red sauce or dip made from roasted nuts and red peppers is a staple
in the Catalan region of Spain.
This bright yellow spice which adds a vivid hue to any dish has been trending for
its health properties – look for it in smoothies and juices.
Also known as Japanese basil, this relative to mint is often served with sushi, but
it can also be added to salads, soups, rice bowls, and stir fries.
BERBERE
This Ethiopian spice mix often includes chili peppers, fenugreek seeds, ginger,
garlic, cinnamon, paprika, and more.
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DECEMBER 2015
FoodBytes
TOPICS COVERED IN LAST MONTH’S
TRENDSPOTTING REPORTS
ON THE MENU
DINE AROUND:
CLEVELAND
In our November issue of On The
Menu we looked at flavors and
dishes from around the globe,
including the Italian flatbread
piadina, the unusual German beer
gose, and the health-driven Middle
Eastern/Mediterranean hummus.
We also stayed close to home and
checked in on raisins, beer cheese,
and the “bowl trend,” and covered
the notable new menu items and
LTOs at top chains, from Nashville
hot chicken to spiked entrees.
In this issue of Dine Around, we
traveled to Cleveland, an underthe-radar city that has been rising
in the ranks of America’s best
foodie destinations. Explore classic
and elevated European flavors,
trendy New American restaurants,
and much more. You’ll also find
consumer data on Cleveland
favorites like corned beef,
kielbasa, pizza bagels, pierogi, and
perch.
UPCOMING: In next month’s
issue we’ll cover everything from
nettles to biscuits.
UPCOMING: Next month we
travel to downtown Los Angeles.
INTERNATIONAL
CONCEPTS: ARGENTINA
CREATIVE CONCEPTS:
ASIAN FAST CASUALS
In International Concepts, we
took you to Argentina, where
meat is king. From barbecue to
triple, quadruple, and even
quintuple burgers, see how beef is
menued across the country and
discover Argentine spins on
coffee, ice cream, pastries, and
more. You’ll also discover what’s
on the menu at Starbucks, Burger
King, and more in Argentina –
mate lattes, anyone?
In Creative Concepts, we looked
at the next generation of fast
casuals featuring Asian cuisine,
with concepts like build-your-own
bowls, make-your-own sushi rolls,
custom stir fries, Asian fusion
(sushirritos, bacos), and more.
According to our research, 40% of
consumers have already visited
an Asian-inspired fast casual, and
37% of consumers absolutely love
the concept.
UPCOMING: In January we’re
taking you to Peru.
UPCOMING: Next month we visit
the newest vegan and vegetarian
restaurants around the U.S.
NEVER MISS OUT ON A TREND!
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Contact Mike Kostyo at 312-219-6435 to subscribe to
Datassential’s entire TrendSpotting Report series.
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STAY IN-THE-KNOW ON THE LATEST TRENDS WITH
REPORTS FROM
Datassential’s TrendSpotting Reports combine the art of spotting food trends with the science of market research,
so you are always up-to-date on the trends that matter to your business, from ideation to marketing to
competitive analysis. And, by subscribing to the full TrendSpotting package, you’ll put it all into context by
understanding the overall trend landscape, from sauces to spices, carriers to proteins, beverages to desserts.
ON THE MENU analyzes
flavor and ingredient trends
from across the trend cycle,
from consumer awareness
and interest to menu
examples that put trends into
context. Plus, we gather and
examine important LTOs and
new menu items from chains
across the country.
CREATIVE CONCEPTS makes it
easy to understand how hot
flavors, ingredients, and
concepts fit into overall industry
trends. Each month takes you
across the country and into the
establishments that are defining
the industry.
INTERNATIONAL CONCEPTS, our
newest TrendSpotting Report,
highlights chain activity around
the world – these are the indemand, up-and-coming flavors,
concepts, and trends that are
often adapted for the U.S. market.
DINE AROUND takes you on a
TrendSpotting tour of a city or
neighborhood, so you are always inthe-know on local food trends and
how they fit into the overall food
landscape, all combined with
Datassential’s industry-leading
market research tools, including
MenuTrends and Firefly.
WORLD BITES brings you
authentic dishes and
ingredients from around the
globe, each one packed with
consumer survey data and U.S.
menu examples – a must for
product ideation, menu
development, and marketing.
To begin your TrendSpotting subscription, contact Datassential Publications
Manager Mike Kostyo at 312-219-6435 or mike@datassential.com.
datassential.com
:
SOMETHING FOR EVERY IDEATION
AND MARKETING NEED.
A MAJORITY OF CONSUMERS SAY
THEIR TASTES ARE SHAPED BY
THEIR RESTAURANT EXPERIENCES
What’s happening on the menu today can
be a leading indicator of tomorrow’s food
trends.
Datassential MenuTrends is the industry’s largest
menu data set with the longest historic trend
record, plus the ability to search millions of dishes
from over 100,000 menus. Because the database is
designed to mirror the US restaurant census by
segment, region, and menu type, MenuTrends is the
only system that offers true projectable data. All
segments and cuisine types are tracked extensively
– from food trucks to fine dining.
MenuTrends INSIDER is also updated every month
with Limited Time Offers (LTOs) and other new
menu activity, with product photos that bring the
listings to life. And with thousands of ready-to-use
reports and simple trend detection tools, you can
jump right into the database, identifying,
measuring, and predicting the food and flavor
trends that matter to your business.
Call us today to begin using the food industry’s
authoritative resource for flavor trends.
Call Jana Mann at 312-655-0595 or
email jana.mann@datassential.com.
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