Market Point - MarketGraphics Research Group

Market Point - MarketGraphics Research Group

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the study area for this report
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The numbers in the circles
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251
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Mccall St
11
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Nashville
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vd
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Arte
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D
96
Williams
R
York Rd
Sanfo
rd
d
46
Green line represents
the study area for this report
The numbers in the circles
are the assigned numbers for
each new home subdivision.
Subdivisions within the study
area are the focus of this report.
s
Rd
Hw
y1
1
d
Burke Hollow R
Sta
te
llow
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rre
n
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Tullis R
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ff R
Call
Re d m
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Rd
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Wa l ler Rd
C
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72
157
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down
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D
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r
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y
pel Rd
Al b
any
Dr
rr en
Wa
ke
Ezell Pike
Sidco Dr
al
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Steeplecha
ty
The Pkwy
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rr
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Trinity R
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Dr
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dg
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a
Spr
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Dr
P
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Curd L
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Hopedale Dr
State Hwy 6
US Hwy
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31
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Ln
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Holly Tree Rd
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Nolensville Rocky Fork Rd
d
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Osburn Rd
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Mccanle
116
lt
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Colum
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e
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Hwy 41 Alt
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31
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1
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Market Share by County
(Based on Building Permits Issued)
30%
25%
20%
Davidson
Rutherford
Williamson
15%
Sumner
Wilson
Maury
10%
Robertson
Dickson
5%
Bedford
Marshall
Cheatham
0%
2002
2003
County
Davidson
Rutherford
Williamson
Sumner
Wilson
Maury
Robertson
Dickson
Bedford
Marshall
Cheatham
2004
2002
23.50%
24.34%
18.88%
9.42%
7.83%
4.18%
4.85%
2.17%
1.84%
0.99%
2.02%
100.00%
2005
2006
2003
23.98%
25.43%
19.74%
9.02%
8.11%
3.39%
3.29%
1.92%
1.79%
1.50%
1.83%
100.00%
2007
2008
2004
23.71%
25.62%
18.52%
9.39%
6.77%
4.42%
3.46%
2.17%
2.32%
1.69%
1.93%
100.00%
2005
22.24%
23.24%
18.96%
10.40%
8.54%
4.62%
3.77%
1.75%
2.85%
1.83%
1.80%
100.00%
2006
23.85%
21.53%
17.71%
10.19%
6.84%
6.48%
4.81%
2.54%
2.49%
1.90%
1.66%
100.00%
2007
29.21%
20.14%
14.02%
9.71%
9.28%
5.69%
4.17%
2.28%
1.78%
2.00%
1.72%
100.00%
2008
25.08%
15.59%
16.48%
10.96%
10.45%
8.50%
4.04%
2.12%
2.36%
2.98%
1.44%
100.00%
Greater Nashville 11-County New Home Starts
12-Month Running Average
18000
17000
P
15000
e
r 14000
m 13000
i 12000
t
11000
s
16000
10000
9000
8000
Apr. 08
Mar. 08
Feb. 08
Jan. 08
Dec. 07
Nov. 07
Oct. 07
Sep. 07
Aug. 07
Jul. 07
Jun. 07
May 07
Apr. 07
May 08
Apr. 08
Mar. 08
Feb. 08
Jan. 08
Dec. 07
Nov. 07
Oct. 07
Sep. 07
Aug. 07
Jul. 07
Jun. 07
May 07
Apr. 07
Mar. 07
Feb. 07
Jan. 07
Dec. 06
Nov. 06
Oct. 06
Sep. 06
Aug. 06
Jul. 06
Jun. 06
May 06
Happy Space Rate - 6 1/4%
Fed Funds Rates
Fixed Mortgage Rates
Mar. 07
Feb. 07
Jan. 07
Dec. 06
Nov. 06
Oct. 06
Sep. 06
Aug. 06
Jul. 06
Jun. 06
May 06
Apr. 06
Mar. 06
Feb. 06
Jan. 06
Dec. 05
30-Year Mortgage Rates vs. Federal Funds Rates
8.00
7.00
6.00
P
e 5.00
r
c 4.00
e
n 3.00
t
2.00
1.00
0.00
Greater Nashville 11-County Market
Employment by 12-Month Periods
820,000
E
m 780,000
p 760,000
l
o 740,000
y 720,000
m
700,000
e
n 680,000
t 660,000
800,000
640,000
Feb. 08
Jan. 08
Dec. 07
Nov. 07
Oct. 07
Sep. 07
Aug. 07
Jul. 07
Jun. 07
May 07
Apr. 07
Mar. 07
Feb. 07
Jan. 07
Dec. 06
Nov. 06
Oct. 06
Sep. 06
Aug. 06
Jul. 06
Jun. 06
May 06
Apr. 06
Mar. 06
Feb. 06
Jan. 06
Dec. 05
Nov. 05
Oct. 05
Historical New Home Supply vs. Projected Demand
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2/04 2/05
Closings
6/04 6/05
Net Inv.
10/04 10/05
2/05 2/06
20% Closings
6/05 6/06
10/05 10/06
2/06 2/07
30% Closings
6/06 6/07
Gross Inv
10/06 10/07
2/07 2/08
Next 12
Mos
Manageable Gross Inventory
2/04 6/04 10/04 2/05 6/05 10/05 2/06 6/06 10/06 2/07 Next 12 Mos
2/05
6/05
10/05
2/06
6/06
10/06
2/07
6/07
10/07
2/08
Closings
11803
11695
12850
12708
12402
12376
13057
13306
13193
12069
13237
Net Inv.
1739.5 1578.1 1706.8 1825.2 2347.1 2871.4 3483.8 3421.7 4207.5 4263.4
30% Closings 3540.9 3508.5 3855.0 3812.4 3720.6 3712.8 3917.1 3991.8 3957.9 3620.7
3971.1
20% Closings 2360.6 2339.0 2570.0 2541.6 2480.4 2475.2 2611.4 2661.2 2638.6 2413.8
2647.4
Gross Inv
6811
7232
7536
8020
8844
9293
9594
9806
10844
9155
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
NET INV - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
CITYSALE.XLS / CITYSALE
Volume 54, February 2008
© MarketGraphics Research Group, Inc. 2008
1981-1989 Ronald Reagan
1989-1993 George H. W. Bush
30-Year Mortgage Rate and Federal Funds Rate and Inflation Rate "vs" Historical 8 1/8% Stutter Rate
20
1985 Windows 1.0
Released by
Microsoft
1981 IBM PC
Introduced
19
Oct 19, 1987 Dow
Drops 508 points,
22 1/3%
18
1989 Exxon
Valdez Disaster
1986
Tax
Law
Change
17
16
15
14
13
P12
e 11
r
c 10
e
n 9
t 8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Nov. 90
Sep. 90
Jul. 90
May 90
Mar. 90
Jan. 90
Nov. 89
Sep. 89
Stutter Rate #2 - 8 3/8%
Jul. 89
May 89
Mar. 89
Jan. 89
Nov. 88
Sep. 88
Jul. 88
May 88
© MarketGraphics Research Group, Inc. 2008
Mar. 88
Dow Jones Avg / 1000
Jan. 88
Nov. 87
Sep. 87
Jul. 87
May 87
Mar. 87
Jan. 87
Nov. 86
CPI-U Inflation Rate
Sep. 86
Jul. 86
May 86
Mar. 86
Jan. 86
Nov. 85
Sep. 85
Jul. 85
SF Starts X 10,000
May 85
Mar. 85
Jan. 85
Nov. 84
Sep. 84
Jul. 84
May 84
Mar. 84
Fed Funds Rates
Jan. 84
Nov. 83
Sep. 83
Jul. 83
May 83
Mar. 83
FEDRATES.XLS / FC4Pages
Jan. 83
30-Yr Fixed Mortgage Rates
Nov. 82
Sep. 82
Jul. 82
May 82
Mar. 82
Jan. 82
Nov. 81
Sep. 81
Jul. 81
May 81
Mar. 81
Jan. 81
0
Stutter Rate #1 - 8 1/8%
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Review of Housing Market Vibrancy for Permits Issued in Last 12 Months
Single-Family Housing Permits (not rentals) as Percent of Population
(To obtain to .75% in a mature, larger city is Excellent)
1.00%
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
o
f
P
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n
0.80%
0.60%
0.40%
0.20%
Percent of Population
13
K
Co
an
un
sa
tie
sC
s
ity
N
or
9
th
Ce
Co
A
nt
un
la
ra
tie
ba
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irg
a
4
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ia
un
15
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s
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nt
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ie s
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lle
as
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as
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Spec Over-Building
A Range of Caution Entering a Lower Vibrant Market
A Market Entering High Risk for Vibrancy
The Census Bureau publishes their updated population estimate with a July date. Their updates are usually posted several months after that date.
Volume 55, June 2008
AllEmployment.XLS / Vibrancy
© MarketGraphics Research Group, Inc. 2008
The Greater Nashville Area
Historical New Home Supply vs. Projected Demand
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
6/04 6/05
Closings
10/04 10/05
Net Inv.
2/05 2/06
6/05 6/06
20% Closings
10/05 10/06
2/06 2/07
30% Closings
6/06 6/07
10/06 10/07
Gross Inv
2/07 2/08
6/07 6/08
Next 12
Mos
Manageable Gross Inventory
10/04 2/05 6/05 10/05 2/06 6/06 10/06 2/07 6/07 6/04 Next 12 Mos
6/05
10/05
2/06
6/06
10/06
2/07
6/07
10/07
2/08
6/08
Closings
11695
12850
12708
12402
12376
13057
13306
13193
12069
11710
13112
Net Inv.
1578.1 1706.8 1825.2 2347.1 2871.4 3483.8 3421.7 4207.5 4263.4 3910.9
30% Closings 3508.5 3855.0 3812.4 3720.6 3712.8 3917.1 3991.8 3957.9 3620.7 3513.0
3933.6
20% Closings 2339.0 2570.0 2541.6 2480.4 2475.2 2611.4 2661.2 2638.6 2413.8 2342.0
2622.4
Gross Inv
7232
7536
8020
8844
9293
9594
9806
10844
9155
8543
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
NET INV - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Volume 55, June 2008
CITYSALE.XLS / CITYSALE
© MarketGraphics Research Group, Inc. 2008
MG Area 13 - Cheatham County
Counted Inventory - New Homes
Max Preferred NFU Today
NFU 12 Months Back
NFU 8 Months Back
NFU 4 Months Back
Current NFU
8.1
29.5
19.8
18.9
23.4
5.5
11.9
21.2
18.1
20.1
4.4
5.5
14.1
12.0
13.1
2.5
4.3
6.1
5.4
6.0
1.4
2.0
2.5
2.1
1.7
Total
30.2
0.9
1.4
1.7
0.9
20.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
72.7
54.0
65.0
58.0
65.0
120.0
N
u
m
b
e
r
100.0
0.9
80.0
o
f
0.0
60.0
N
e
w
99.8
40.0
H
o
m
e
s
64.3
23.4
20.0
20.1
13.1
6.0
13.5
5.3
5.0
0.0
Under
175
175/225
225/275
3.9
1.7
3.4
275/325
325/425
0.0
425/625
625/925
925+
New Home and Lot Combined Price Ranges
Max NFU Preferred %
22%
22%
Under Construction
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
32%
Finished Unoccupied Including Models (i.e.) NFU
Tracked subdivision demand, not "Forecast" demand
Under 175
COUNTED INVENTORY
36.9
NOT SOLD INVENTORY
11.1
PROJ. MONTHLY DEMAND
3.1
NO. MONTHS SUPPLY
3.6
2 to 2.4 months supply or lower is ideal
175/225
25.0
10.0
3.0
3.3
225/275
18.4
9.2
2.7
3.4
275/325
9.8
4.8
1.3
3.6
325/425
5.1
1.5
0.7
2.3
Volume 55, June 2008
A13HOME.XLS / A13HOMEHist
© MarketGraphics Research Group, Inc. 2008
425/625
100.6
20.1
8.4
2.4
625/925
64.3
12.9
5.3
2.4
925+
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
Total
260.0
69.5
24.9
2.8
MG Area 14 - Robertson County
Counted Developed & Undeveloped Lots
3000
2500
N
u
m 2000
b
e
r
o
f
2171.3
1500
L
o 1000
t
s
688.2
500
676.6
108.1
231.5
40.2
96.5
3.2
114.2
275/325
325/425
142.4
0
Under 175
175/225
225/275
0.0
18.9
0.0
0.0
425/625
625/925
925+
New Home and Lot Combined Price Ranges
Developed Lots
Un-Developed Lots
Tracked subdivision demand, not "Forecast" demand
Total Lot Inventory
Projected Monthly Demand
Total Inventory Months Supply
Developed Lot Inventory
Developed Lot Months Supply
Under 175
2847.9
15.1
188.8
676.6
44.9
175/225
919.7
8.8
104.1
231.5
26.2
225/275
250.5
6.0
41.8
142.4
23.7
275/325
136.7
2.7
51.3
96.5
36.2
325/425
117.4
2.1
56.3
114.2
54.8
Volume 55, June 2008
A14LOTCB.xls / A14LOTCB
© MarketGraphics Research Group, Inc. 2008
425/625
18.9
0.3
56.7
18.9
56.7
625/925
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
925+
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total
4291.0
35.1
122.3
1280.0
36.5
MG Area 27 - Bedford County
Historical New Home Supply vs. Projected Demand
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
6/04 6/05
Closings
10/04 10/05
2/05 2/06
Net Inv.
6/05 6/06
20% Closings
10/05 10/06
2/06 2/07
30% Closings
6/06 6/07
10/06 10/07
Gross Inv
2/07 2/08
6/07 6/08
Next 12
Mos
Manageable Gross Inventory
10/04 2/05 6/05 10/05 2/06 6/06 10/06 2/07 6/07 6/04 Next 12 Mos
6/05
10/05
2/06
6/06
10/06
2/07
6/07
10/07
2/08
6/08
Closings
213
244
243
228
211
203
227
203
214
256
257
Net Inv.
28.6
35.2
35.1
36.6
43.4
65.0
56.8
79.1
94.5
68.3
30% Closings 63.9
73.2
72.9
68.4
63.3
60.9
68.1
60.9
64.2
76.8
77.1
20% Closings 42.6
48.8
48.6
45.6
42.2
40.6
45.4
40.6
42.8
51.2
51.4
Gross Inv
119
127
97
116
109
166
130
166
149
109
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
NET INV - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Volume 55, June 2008
A27SALE.XLS / A27SALE
© MarketGraphics Research Group, Inc. 2008