20081020 Africa

Barcelona, Spain, October 20, 2008
Kjell Aleklett
Global Energy Systems
Uppsala University, Sweden
Kjell.aleklett@fysast.uu.se
www.fysast.uu.se/ges
Blog: aleklett.wordpress.com
Kjell Aleklett
Confucius
500 BC
Study the past
to define the future
Kjell Aleklett
The Historical “Peak Oil” Endgame
The end of
the Oil Age
Oct 23rd 2003
Leaders from The Economist printed edition
On a time scale starting at year 0 and ending 4000 years later everyone agree that
there will be a peak in the oil production between 2000 and 2100
Kjell Aleklett
The Worst and Best Peak Oil,
2007, Uppsala University, Sweden
Kjell Aleklett
Fields needed for the best case oil end game
Kjell Aleklett
Kjell Aleklett
Where to find fossil fuels
Kjell Aleklett
Coal - BP
Kjell Aleklett
Natural gas - BP
Kjell Aleklett
BP - oil
Kjell Aleklett
Daqing
Kjell Aleklett
Daqing
Kjell Aleklett
Daqing - China
”Petroleum has a compact relationship with a
countries political, economical and military
strength.”
Kjell Aleklett
China is short of oil and gas
Prediction for the Production and demand (million tones) of China
Importation is 47% of
Total demand in 2006
Oil demand
}
Shortfall
Oil production
●
Time
Kjell Aleklett
Refinery in Sudan
Intercampo oil field in
Venezuela
Zanazor oil and gas plant in Kazakstan Tuban oilfield united station in
Indonesia
Kjell Aleklett
Human Development Index
Kjell Aleklett
Human Development Index
Kjell Aleklett
GDP and oil use per capita
Kjell Aleklett
GDP per capita
Kjell Aleklett
Oil Intensity
Kjell Aleklett
Oil produktion in SSA
Kjell Aleklett
Kjell Aleklett
Oil intensity scenarios
Kjell Aleklett
A Sustainable World Scenario
Kjell Aleklett
Data Support a Worst Case Oil End Game
Kjell Aleklett
Decline in
existing
fields:
ExxonMobil
Kjell Aleklett
Data Support a Worst Case Oil End Game
Production from existing oilfields
decline with 3 million barrels per
day in one year. In 4,5 years the
production from existing oilfields
will be 71 million barrels per day.
We must find new oilfields and
put them in production. A
production of 3 million barrels per
day is 1,1 billion barrels per year
and to be able to produce this oil
a reserve of 27 billion barrels is
needed. A plateau production will
need this level of new reserves
every year.
2012
Kjell Aleklett
Uppsala Global Energy
Systems
Web page: www.fysast.uu.se/ges
Kjell Aleklett
Global Energy Systems
Web page: www.fysast.uu.se/ges
Aleklett’s Energy Mix: aleklett.wordpress.com
E-mail: Kjell.aleklett@fysast.uu.se
ASPO: www.peakoil.net
Kjell Aleklett