AICC trends in the corrugated industry - Flexographic Pre

Consolidation in the
Corrugated Industry
An Independent View
Steve Young
President, AICC
Everybody has an Agenda
 Overview/Who is AICC?
 Current state of the industry
 Corrugated trends
 Shipments
 Consolidation
 Opportunities




Market segments: what’s hot, what’s not
Sustainability
Retail Ready Packaging
Digital Printing
Who’s AICC?
 Founded in 1974, representing exclusively
independent packaging industry –
corrugated, folding carton & rigid box
 300 corporate members, plus 130 supplier
members
 International in scope with members in US,
Canada, Mexico and overseas
 Education, training, advocacy and
networking, public outreach
State of the Industry
What’s Going On?
US Corrugated industry and economic data, January 2013
Unless otherwise noted, data represent change from previous reporting period (month, quarter or year)
Corrugated shipments:
4.6% (2012-2013)
Mill operating rates:
97.1%
Containerboard inventory (weeks of supply)
4.1 weeks (up from 3.6)
4Q 2012 GDP Growth (revised)
0.1%
Purchasing Managers’ Index
55.2 (up from 53.1)
Linerboard Exports
10.5%
Change in OCC Prices (Midwest, January)
$10/ton
Sources: Scoring Boxes, Feb, 2013
Corrugated Market Share 2001-2009
Asia vs. North America, percent of total world corrugated production
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Source: International Corrugated Case Association
North America
Asia
Shipments Trend
Billions of Square Feet
Source: Fibre Box Association, 2011 Annual Report
Declining Share of Total Corrugated Shipments
60%
50%
40%
Non-Durable
(Non-Food)
Goods Industry
30%
20%
10%
0%
Sources: RISI, Corrugated Markets End Use Study 2012
Durable Goods
Industry
Number of Plants U.S., 2001-2011
1000
900
800
Corrugator Plants
Sheet Plants
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Source: Fibre Box Association, 2011 Annual Report
1,547 in 1992
1,244 in 2012
Loss of 25%
US Containerboard Market Share 1984
Top 5: 34%
8%
66%
Others: 66%
Stone
6. 6%
8. 8%
Champion Intl
Weyerhaeuser
Intl Paper
7. 7%
7. 7%
Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Union Camp
Others
US Containerboard Market Share 2012
27%
Top 4:
73%
Others: 27%
6%
20%
11%
Rock-Tenn
Int'l Paper
Georgia Pacific
PCA
37%
Source: Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
All Others
Mill Closings/Mothballing 2007-2010
4.5 Million Tons Out of Market
Source: Mill Closings 2007-2010, Pulp and Paper Week
US & Canadian Corrugated Industry Consolidation
St. Regis Paper
Chesapeake
Continental Can Company
Bell Packaging Corp.
Owens-Illinois Container Div.
Weston-Wabash
Container Corporation of America
Stone Container
Pineville Kraft
Willamette
Hoerner-Waldorf
Gaylord Container Corp.
Crown Zellerbach
St. Laurent Packaging
Great Northern Nekoosa
MacMillan Bloedel
Manville Forest Products
Alton Corrugated
Bathurst Packaging
Box USA
Westvaco
Mead
St. Joe Paper
Weyerhaeuser
US Corrugated Market Share 1989
Sources: Courtesy of Mike Harwood, Pratt Industries
US Corrugated Market Share 2011
Sources: RISI
Not just for the big guys
Sample transactions, 2010-2012, independent converters
Date
Transaction
Date
Transaction
5/17/2010
SupplyOne buys Specialty
Container
7/25/2011
Welch Packaging buys Imperial
Packaging
5/31/2010
Mannkraft Corp. buys Security
Packaging
8/29/2011
Lawrence Paper buys Liberty
Carton
6/21/2012
Englander buys Stribling, then
DzignPak
12/12/2011
Coastal Container buys Best
Packaging
1/3/2011
Romanow buys Allied
Industries
1/1/2012
Arbor Investments buys Great
Lakes Packaging Corp.
6/13/2011
Pacific Southwest Container
buys Proactive Northern
2/6/2012
Menasha Packaging buys
Strive Group
7/11/2011
Buckeye Corrugated buys
Empire State Container and
T&T Packaging
8/20/2012
SupplyOne buys Albuquerque
Packaging
Sources: Courtesy of Board Converting News
Independent Market Share
Percent of Total Shipments, 1996-2011
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Integrated
Independent
Opportunities
Declining Share of Total Corrugated Shipments
60%
50%
40%
Non-Durable
(Non-Food)
Goods Industry
30%
20%
10%
0%
Sources: RISI, Corrugated Markets End Use Study 2012
Durable Goods
Industry
Food and Beverage
End-Use Markets
Classified by Growth Potential
Average Annual Growth in Corrugated Shipments (2012-2016)
Growth Markets
Stagnant Markets
Beverage Products
5.7%
Fresh Fruit and Vegetables
3.5%
Dairy Products
3.0%
Chemical Products
2.7%
Other Food Products
2.5%
Meat Products
2.3%
Retail Trade
Paper, Printing and Allied
Products
Metal, Machinery and
Transport Equipment
Bakery Products
Frozen and Canned
Food
Furniture and Wood
Products
Declining Markets
0.8%
0.7%
0.6%
0.2%
-0.1%
1.2%
Services
Sugar and
Confectionary
Textile, Apparel and
Leather Products
1.1%
Wholesale Trade
-0.4%
-0.2%
-0.3%
Miscellaneous
Manufacturing
-2.0%
Plastics, Rubber
and Petro Products -2.8%
Milled Grain and
Oilseed
-3.2%
Mineral Products
Electrical
Equipment and
Computers
-4.1%
-4.8%
Growth Trends in Beverage Products
Five- Year Average Annual Growth Rates
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
GDP
02-06
07-11e
12-16f
2.7%
0.5%
2.4%
Food and
Beverage
Spending
1.8%
0.7%
1.6%
Beverages
Spending
Beverages
Production
3.7%
0.6%
3.6%
3.3%
2.3%
3.0%
Sources: RISI, Corrugated Markets End Use Study 2012
Beverages
Industry
GDP
2.5%
0.7%
2.4%
Corrugated
Box
Shipments
3.2%
5.2%
5.7%
Sustainability
Sustainability
 Environmental
 Social
 Economic
Retail Ready Packaging
What is Retail Ready Packaging?
RRP is a system of packaging and
merchandising that allows products to move
through the retail supply chain and stores
most efficiently.
Source: Drew Gilchrist, Gilchrist Packaging
Key Drivers
 Labor – stores are regularly short of planned
employees (> 6%)
 Employee turnover is high in the retail sector
 Overtime hours due to labor-intensive activities
hurt margins
 Out of stock merchandise results in lost sales
and unhappy customers
 Less double-handling of product
Source: Drew Gilchrist, Gilchrist Packaging
Key Drivers
 Consumers demand convenience, choice, and
availability
 RRP is a solution to improve on-shelf
availability of products
 Successful RRP solutions increase brand
visibility as well as product identification and
shop-ability
 Successful RRP adds structure excitement,
thus enhancing the customer experience
Source: Drew Gilchrist, Gilchrist Packaging
The Four Categories of RRP
Shelf Ready
(SRP)
Display Ready
(DRP)
Source: Drew Gilchrist, Gilchrist Packaging
Replenishment
Ready
Infrastructure
Ready
Shelf Ready Packaging
Shelf Ready Packaging (SRP)
allows a case containing
more than one consumer
selling unit to be placed on
the store shelf in one
motion.
Eliminates the need to
remove product one at a
time from the typical RSC
Studies have shown a 48% improvement
in shelf stocking time with SRP’s
Source: Drew Gilchrist, Gilchrist Packaging
Shelf Ready Packaging
Source: Drew Gilchrist, Gilchrist Packaging
Shelf Ready Packaging
Source: Drew Gilchrist, Gilchrist Packaging
Easy To Identify - On The Shelf
Packaging Style Guides
Source: Drew Gilchrist, Gilchrist Packaging
Style Guides Not Available?
Download a copy of the Retail Ready Packaging Functional
Guidelines from http://www.ecr-all.org
Digital Printing
Océ Current Solutions for Packaging
Digital short run
•
Océ Arizona series UV flatbed printer
– Enables printing to rigid substrate including
corrugate up to 2” thick
– 4’x8’ or 8’x10’ image area
– Speeds up to 22 4’x8’ boards/hour at near
photographic quality
•
Océ ProCut digital cutter
– Performs cutting and creasing of printed
packaging
– Integrated print/cut workflow software
Sources: Courtesy of Océ
Océ (Canon)
InfiniStream Folding Carton Press
Sources: Courtesy of Océ
Sun Automation
Stored ICC Color
Profiles
Pre-press
Package
Creation and
Layout
Color Toolkit
Software
Ripped Job Data File
System Controller
Customer sends a PDF,
Adobe, JPEG etc…
Sources: Courtesy of Sun Automation
SUN Automation Digital Printing
 Full Width Printing on a 60” x
110” sheet
 Production speeds of 3,000
sheets/hr.
 70 MSF/hr., 16 hours per day,
6 days per week
 High Density Pigment Inks
and Digital Coatings
 4 process colors (CMYK) cover
85% of Pantone range
 Color management and spot
colors possible
 No plates, no set up time, no
maintenance
First Printed Display
Taken 011212
Bobst
“Digital packaging will
not take over from one
day to another, but will
play a key role in the
next five to ten years.”
• -- Jean-Pascal Bobst, as quoted at
PPC’s 2012 Fall Meeting, Las Vegas
Summary
 The digital packaging industry will have a compound
annual growth rate of 15.7% between 2009 and 2014

 Demand for innovative ways to differentiate products
 Short runs for regional, local and low-volume
products

 Packaging is a growing market and everybody wants
in
Sources: Frank Romano, RIT
Takeaways
 Corrugated shipments down
 Consolidation continues – integrated and
independent
 Independents must reinvent themselves
 Opportunities in market trends
 Sustainability
 RRP
 Digital print
Resources
 AICC: www.aiccbox.org , or
syoung@aiccbox.org
 Drew Gilchrist: drew.gilchrist@att.net
 ICCA: www.iccanet.org
 Sun Automation: www.sunautomation.com
 Canon (Oce): www.canon.com
 Bobst: www.bobstgroup.com
 RRP Functional Guidelines www.ecr-all.org