Measuring Sustainability

Measuring Sustainability
Carbon Masters
April 23, 2009
Cascadia
• It’s about place
• Shared goals for the
region:
– Healthier lives
– Shared economic
prosperity
– Stronger communities
– Natural assets
Cascadia Scorecard
• The Pacific Northwest’s sustainability
report card. It tracks seven trends that are
crucial to the region’s future.
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Health
Economy
Population
Energy
Sprawl
Wildlife
Pollution
Health
• Life expectancy is the best single measure of a
population’s health.
– Lifespan = the average number of years an infant is
likely to survive given current rates of mortality
– Lifespan reflects all of the diseases, accidents, and
lifestyle choices that shorten people’s lives, as well as
the effectiveness of medical care.
• Northwesterners’ health – as measured by
lifespan continues to improve.
– The Northwest's average lifespan is around 79 years
(an increase of nearly four years since 1979).
Cascadia Lifespans
Why do Canadians live longer?
• I’ve always thought it was because of
universal health care.
– But greater access doesn’t entirely explain
longevity; other factors come into play
– The U.S. spends more per capita on health
care, yet ranks 26th in longevity
The Reasons
• At every age, and for virtually every major
cause of death, British Columbians are less
likely to die than other Cascadians
– BC has lower rates of violent deaths – fewer
homicides and fewer fatal car crashes
Environmental design
• Communities can make choices that
promote health
– Social connectedness is also important – lack of
social ties can increase the risk of death.
– Less cars, denser cities (more walking)
Healthy neighborhoods
• The effects of
neighborhood design on
exercise are small but
significant
– After the age of 25,
Americans put on about a
pound or two each year –
a gain that would be
eliminate by walking just a
few extra minutes each
day
Japanese are the healthiest
• Keizo Miura, 100, does
his exercise routine to
train for a trek in the
Italian Alps. In a country
where the average life
span has extended to
81.9 years, Japan's elderly
are not only the longestlived but statistically the
healthiest seniors in the
world.
Economy
• Economic well-being is usually measured
by economic indicators such as gross
domestic product (GDP), which is the total
output of a region’s economy.
– War is “good” for the economy because it
causes spending
– Natural disasters are good for the economy,
too.
How are we really doing?
• When measuring simply GDP, the
Northwest economy is “richer” than in
1990.
– Total economic output in the region has risen
72%
Economic Security Index
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Original composite of four measures to
gauge real-world effects
1.
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3.
4.
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Incomes of typical households
Unemployment rate
Share of Northwesterners living in poverty
Share of children living in poverty
By this measure, we’re underperforming
and “economic security” is worse than
in 1990.
Poverty rates
• Official poverty rate in 2006: 12.3%, though it
fluctuates between 12 and 16%.
– rose for the fifth consecutive year
– one out of eight Americans now lives in poverty (37
million people)
• Poverty rates remained statistically unchanged
for Blacks (24.9%) and Hispanics (21.8%). The
poverty rate decreased for non-Hispanic Whites
(8.3% in 2005, down from 8.7% in 2004).
Poverty rates in Cascadia
• Washington and Oregon have averaged
11.7% over the past 3 years
• Idaho: 10.5%
• Montana: 14.3%
How could this happen?
• In Cascadia, as throughout North America,
living beyond our means is commonplace.
• Some people have accumulated debt during a
period of unemployment or a spell without
medical insurance.
• But others have been swept up in the optimism
that pervades most bubble economies by
running up personal debt on credit cards or
home equity lines and counting on future
earnings or the continuation of stock-market
gains to pay the tab.
Today’s economic climate
• The failures of major banks and corporations
threatens Northwest businesses, both large and
small, from local restaurants to large
manufacturers.
• These companies employ us and provide the
goods and services that we get to enjoy.
• Most businesses carry loans to cover their
expenses, paying off the loans from their
earnings.
– That’s the big fear about this crisis: that such loans
could dry up, becoming too scarce or expensive
National Poverty Rates Have Taken
a Different Path
Solutions
• I think the most important key to
improving economic security in Cascadia
is a shift in public consciousness and
political debate.
• Economic security happens when we
reduce poverty by improving education
and
Recent news…
• Adjusted for inflation, disposable income
fell 0.9 percent...
• Personal savings rates fell into negative
territory, minus 1.1 percent, from 0.1
percent.
– People are paying for their increased
spending by borrowing more money.
– In 1968, we saved about 8 percent of our
incomes.
Population
• Not so much concerned the aggregate, the
Scorecard measures population growth
through the “total fertility rate” or the
average number of births over each
woman's lifetime.
Why TFR?
• Throughout the world, lower fertility rates
– particularly in places where unintended
births are rare – are associated with
greater prosperity and improved wellbeing for women and families.
– Fertility patterns are also a barometer of
women’s status.
Population
• Average family size is at 1.8 children in
2005 (the last year of complete data).
• In 1970, it was 2.4.
– Some analysts say this is a reflection to
women having more control over important
life decisions and better access to
contraception.
Regional birthrate
• Birthrate declined to
a record low of 12.3
births per 1,000
residents in 2002
– U.S. average is 15
– BC at 9.7
– Northwest states
somewhere in
between
Fertility
• Another way to think
about it (at the
individual level) is that
northwest women
average 1.8 births
• A better measure of
long-term birth and
family-size trends is
how “stable” they are.
Stable Populations
• A growing population may seem like a
sign of prosperity. Yet the reverse is more
typically true: rapid population growth is
often both a symptom and a cause of
economic woes.
• The world’s wealthier nations tend to
have far lower rates of population growth
than do struggling ones.
Trend towards smaller families
• Women are postponing childbearing until
later in life
– Births to women in their 30s are soon to
exceed births to women in their 20s
– Birthrates to women in their 40s may soon
overtake births to teens
• This is already the case in BC
• Teen birthrates are at all-time lows
Family size
• Total fertility rate = lifetime births per
woman.
• In places where women have more
opportunities and greater equality with
men, women tend to have smaller
families, later in life.
– Fewer teen births and markedly lower rates
of unplanned pregnancies.
Population
Sprawl (in Cascadia)
• Generally refers to suburban traits
– Compartmentalization of land use
– Branching street patterns
– Dispersed buildings
• Best indicator is residential density:
– The number of people who live on each acre
– Density reveals whether growing populations are
consuming much or little new land
– Density is the most important determinant of how
much people drive.
Why is sprawl bad?
• It confines residents in their cars for most
trip, increasing transportation and
infrastructure costs, and causes the
fragmentation of ecological systems.
What does it look like?
Photos by the Center for Sustainable Suburban Development, University of
Minnesota (CALA), and http://www.exuberance.com
Sprawl and cars
• Vehicles are a major source of air pollution.
• Also linked to high blood pressure and “road
rage.”
• Cars and trucks produce about 40% NOx
emissions.
Photos from http://www.sierraclub.org/sprawl
Bad for the wallet, too
• As the Wall Street Journal
chart on the right shows,
residents of Portland
devote fully 16% of their
household budgets to
transportation
• Residents of sprawling
Seattle devote 20%,
about the same as Dallas
and Houston
Sprawl and health
• There is a clear association between the
type of place people live and their activity
levels, weight, and health
• Physical inactivity and being overweight
are factors in over 200,000 deaths each
year
– Think about the lifestyle that sprawl
encourages.
Walkability – Phinney Ridge v.
Bellevue
Wildlife
• The index tracks
population counts
of five key
indicator species:
gray wolves,
mountain caribou,
greater sagegrouse, orcas, and
Chinook salmon.
Gray Wolf
Current/
Historic Range
Caribou
• To thrive, woodland
caribou require relatively
intact mountain forests.
• So, in that sense, their
fading populations are a
good proxy for the
extent to which we have
disturbed these
ecosystems.
Pollution
• Which is worst?
– Victoria, B.C. dumps 1 million liters of raw
sewage into the ocean every day.
– 35% of U.S. children live in homes where
adults smoke regularly
– Effluent from a manufacturing plant raises
the average temperature of lake water 6°F
– Our constant exposure to chemicals in our
daily lives
Human pollution
• Humans and other creatures contain
within their tissues a thin soup of
chemicals that didn’t exist a century ago.
The most worrisome share three
characteristics:
– they break down slowly
– accumulate in living tissue
– harm functions of the body.
Sightline’s Pollution Indicator
• Measures persistent bioaccumulative toxics
(PBTs)
– PCBs
– PBDEs
Bioaccumulation
• Primary producers take up
chemical at ambient levels
• Consumers eat a large
quantity of producers,
magnifying effect of
chemical
• Apex consumers retain a
high concentration of the
pollutant, often at toxic
levels
Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs)
• Were thought to be a “miracle chemical”
when they were introduced.
• Uses:
– Insulators in electrical devices
– Industrial lubricants and coolants
– Stabilizers in paints, adhesives, and polymers
Characteristics of PCBs
• Very stable
– Do not dissolve in water
– May be transported large distances by wind
• Persistent
– Bioaccumulate in the food chain
• Humans are exposed by:
– Eating contaminated food (esp. fish)
– Leaks from old appliances or light fixtures
Problems with PCBs
• PCBs turned out to have many negative effects on
human (and animal) health
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In utero exposure has greatest effect
Low birth weight babies
Hair, skin, nail problems
Infant hearing loss
Delayed/impaired neurological development
Interference with thyroid hormones
Estrogen mimicry – may play a role in breast cancer
Possible carcinogen
What has been done?
• U.S. banned
production of PCBs in
1977, but we’re still
finding it in our bodies
• Many countries ban
PCB use or limit it to
controlled situations
• Though PCBs are still
pervasive in humans,
concentrations seem to
be declining.
Natural Resource Defense Council
Polybrominated Diphenyl Ethers (PBDEs)
• Widely used flame
retardant
– Used in electronics,
mattresses,
– Use has been increasing
since 1970s
• Now found in air,
water, fish, marine
mammals, and humans
Health Concerns
• Similar in structure to PCBs, so they may have
similar effects
• Studies indicate that they:
– Interfere with thyroid hormones
– Inhibit neurological development
– May be associated with some forms of cancer
• PBDEs are mixed with other substances, not
chemically bound, so they can leach out into
environment
Trends
• Humans may be exposed through eating fish,
working in production with PBDEs, or from
breathing indoor air in vicinity of PBDE-treated
materials
• Sweden was the first country to ban PBDEs
• Data are still emerging, but concentrations seem
to be increasing
Another look…
Scorecard indicator
• Sample from breast milk of first-time mothers
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Can be used as a proxy for body-burdens of others
Breast milk is high in fat, where PBTs accumulate
Noninvasive collection
In utero effects are often most profound; breast milk
can indicate in utero toxin levels
The good news…
• U.S. EPA reached an agreement with the
chemical manufacturers to halt production
of the most troublesome forms of the
compounds.
• In 2005 an Oregon bill banned the use of
the most toxic forms of PBDEs in the
state starting in 2006.
• In 2007, the Washington legislature voted
to phase out PBDEs.
Energy
• As a proxy for Cascadia’s overall energy
consumption, the Scorecard tracks the
per-person consumption of motor fuels
and the use of electricity in homes and
buildings.
Energy Use in Cascadia
Hey, turn off the lights!
• Northwesterners have reduced their
consumption of energy in recent years!
• Idahoans use the most (lots of trucks!),
while BC’s lower consumption is likely the
result of smaller homes and more
compact urban design.
Not all bad news…
• Per capita gas use
has been lower
• Notice the
difference between
the U.S. and
Canada
• Compact cities
with fewer roads
yield less driving.
Electric use in Cascadia
• Hydropower remains dominant in the
region, providing roughly 2/3 of its
electricity in typical years.
– Much of the growth in demand since the
mid-1980s has been met by burning natural
gas and coal, some of it in power plants far
from the Northwest.
Wind Power…
• Pollution-free wind power has emerged,
with many wind farms in the Columbia
River basin
– But it’s still not enough:
• in actual electrical output, the Northwest added
17 times as much generating capacity from
natural gas as from wind
Hybrids and Hummers
Hybrids v. Hummers (2004)
Hybrid vehicles were introduced in 1999, seven years after Hummers, but by July 2004 had
outsold them almost six to one in Cascadia. And while Hummer sales stagnated in 2004, hybrids
rocketed out of showrooms.
Conclusions
• Humans are doing pretty well (increased
life expectancy, stable populations), but
we still need to work on improving the
status of the region’s most needy.
• Our natural heritage (wildlife, sprawl,
energy) is more precarious, and we need
to make progress.
• There is reason for optimism.
Cascadia Scorecard 2009
• http://scorecard.sightline.org/