Assessment of Canada`s River Hydrokinetic Energy Resources

Assessment of Canada’s River
Hydrokinetic Energy Resources
Wayne Jenkinson, Andrew Cornett
November 2014
Motivation / Objective / Timeline
Motivation
• Canada has 7% of the planet’s freshwater resources
• Substantial river hydrokinetic energy resource
• Size, character and distribution of this resource is unknown
Objective
• Quantify the scale, character and distribution of Canada’s river hydrokinetic
energy resources
• Information bank to support more detailed local studies
• Identify regional hotspots
Timeline
• Phase 1 (2010) Literature and data review, develop approach
• Phase 2 (2012) Pilot applications, refinement, validation
• Phase 3 (2013) Canada-wide resource assessment
2
Partners
National Research Council
•
Project Management and Execution
Natural Resources Canada
•
•
Project Guidance,
Primary Funding Body
CEATI
•
Funding and Requirements Guidance
Environment Canada
•
Data Provision
University of Ottawa
•
Research Partners
3
Challenges
Canada is rather large (~107 km2)
All medium and large rivers to be included
Desired resolution: ~500m river reaches
Only national datasets can be used
Very sparse information/data on flows and channel
characteristics
• Diverse physiographic regions
•
•
•
•
•
• British Columbia
• Canadian Shield
• Maritimes
• Prairies
• North
• Southern Ontario
4
General Approach
• Consider ~500m reaches
• Estimate kinetic power PK, from velocity, v and channel geometry, A
• Estimate velocity using Manning equation
Flow (m3/s)
• Use hydrologic analysis and regionalization to estimate Manning
equation inputs: roughness, n, slope, S, channel geometry, A, flow, Q
60
• Characterize time-varying flow
50
using flow-duration curves
40
• Integrate results over rivers, regions
30
20
10
0
0
5
0.5
Exceedence Probability
1
Flow characterization
• Mean annual flow (MAF)
• Mean monthly flow (MMF)
• Flow duration curves (FDC)
14
Flow (m3/s)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
60
Flow (m3/s)
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
6
0.2
0.4
0.6
Exceedence Probability
0.8
1
Physiographic data
Obtain national datasets and extract
key features for each watershed
drainage area:
• Elevation (mean, min, max)
• Watershed perimeter
• Basin slope
• Channel slope
• Land cover class (water, forest, etc.)
• Soil permeability
• Precipitation rates (snow, rain, total)
• Temperature data (mean, min, max)
• Growing season (start, length)
7
Flow data
• Flow data for 900 gauged stations across Canada (from EC)
8
Discharge estimation for ungauged basins
• Regionalization
• Different relationships for each
physiographic region
Qx=f(Gx, Px, Cx)
Gx – Geologic parameters for basin x
Px – Physiographic parameters for basin x
Cx – Climatological parameters for basin x
Qx –Flow at basin x
Ungauged Basins (black)
G=GD
P=PD
C=CD
Q=?
B
D
A
9
Gauged Basins (red)
G=GB
P=PB
C=CB
Q=QB
C
Channel geometry estimation
Width and depth estimated from discharge
(Leopold and Maddock eqns)
Region
a
b
R2
Stations
British Columbia
3.96
0.50
0.93
179
Shield
3.75
0.54
0.86
57
Prairies
6.21
0.46
0.91
79
S. Ontario
1.74
0.82
0.92
9
North
6.12
0.49
0.88
9
Maritimes
3.33
0.54
0.95
39
10
Validation
• Validate methodology for estimating velocity, channel geometry,
hydrokinetic power
• 80,000 velocity measurements at 430 stations across Canada (EC)
• Results - Streamflow
• Good flow prediction in all areas
• Weakest in Prairies region
• Results – Hydrokinetic Power
Average Panel Velocity (m/s)
• Reasonable predictions in most areas
• Weakest in Shield region
108
106
105
10
4
103
102
10
1
100
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
Total Time Averaged Power (W) - Observed
108
107
106
105
103
102
10
1
10
0
1.2
0.8
0.4
0
0
104
Panel Depth (m/s)
107
Total Time Averaged Power (W) - Estimated
Total Time Averaged Power (W) - Estimated
108
1.6
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
Total Time Averaged Power (W) - Observed
11
108
0
40
80
Distance to Shore (m)
120
160
Uncertainty
• Uncertainty analysis performed
• Main Uncertainties
• Channel geometry estimation
• Flow estimation (FDC)
• Slope, roughness estimation
12
Flow maps (FDC)
13
Power maps
14
Integrated power map (theoretical resource)
15
Canadian (Theoretical) Hydrokinetic Power Resource
• ~ 700 GW river hydrokinetic power across Canada
• Leading Provinces: Quebec, NWT, Ontario, BC, Manitoba, …
• Caveats:
• Theoretical resource: velocity or depth constraints not considered
• No consideration for feasibility of extraction (proximity to infrastructure, etc.)
• Moderate uncertainty – mostly due to the uncertainty in channel geometry
estimation
16
Thank you
Andrew Cornett
Senior Research Engineer / Program Leader
Marine Infrastructure, Energy & Water Resources
613.993.6690
Andrew.Cornett@nrc-cnrc.gc.ca
17