Centre of Excellence – International Centre for Geohazards (ICG)

Transcription

Centre of Excellence – International Centre for Geohazards (ICG)
Centre of Excellence –
International Centre for
Geohazards (ICG)
Annual Report - 2006
20031103-3
31 March 2007
Partners in ICG
Client:
The Research Council of Norway
Contact person:
Contract reference:
Are Birger Carlson
SFF – ICG 146035/420
For the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
Suzanne Lacasse
Managing Director
Report prepared by:
Farrokh Nadim
Director, ICG
Reviewed by:
Postal address:
Street address:
Internet:
P.O. Box 3930 Ullevaal Stadion, N-0806 OSLO, NORWAY
Sognsveien 72, OSLO
http://www.ngi.no
Suzanne Lacasse
Telephone:
Telefax:
e -mail:
(+47) 22 02 30 00 Postal account:
0814 51 60643
(+47) 22 23 04 48 Bank account:
5096 05 01281
ngi@ngi.no Business No.
958 254 318 MVA
BS EN ISO 9001, Certified by BSI, Registration No. FS 32989
International Centre for Geohazards
Annual Report - 2006
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
20031103-4
2007-03-31
-
2
Summary
The "International Centre for Geohazards" (ICG) is one the 13 Centres of Excellence
(Senter for Fremragende Forskning, SFF) established by The Research Council of
Norway (RCN) in 2003. The Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) is the host
organisation for ICG. Partners in the centre are the University of Oslo (UiO), the
Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), NORSAR, and the
Geological Survey of Norway (NGU).
Results and activities in 2006
• The research plan was followed and most of the goals set for the year were achieved.
With respect to four major goals of the centre, a) in-kind contribution from the partners, b) complementary projects from the industry, c) number of PhD candidates, and
d) international networking, the results have already, after 4 years of operation,
exceeded by far the goals and expectations.
• ICG, as well as the 12 other CoEs there were established in 2003, were evaluated
under the auspices of The Research Council of Norway in 2006. The purpose of the
midway evaluation was to assess the scientific quality and performance of a centre in
absolute terms and relative to the centre’s original research plans. The evaluation
also provided data to support RCN’s decision as to whether a centre would continue
for an entire 10-year period, or should be wound up after the first 5 years. The results
of the midway evaluation were announced by the RCN on 15 December 2006. The
evaluation of ICG was very positive and the work of ICG was characterised as
“exceptionally good”. The Research Council of Norway decided to continue its
funding of ICG activities for the full 10 years.
• The focus of ICG’s research in 2006 was on:
- Improving the understanding of geohazards.
- Assessment of the risks associated with by geohazards to individuals and society.
- Development and improvement of methods for modelling the mechanical processes underlying the physical phenomena of different geohazards and for evaluating the consequences of geohazards.
- Graduate university programmes on geohazards at UiO and NTNU
• Joint workshops, seminars, and project meetings contributed to creating a good collaboration spirit among the five partners.
• There is considerable interest and enthusiasm about the activities of ICG, both in
Norway and abroad.
Challenges for 2007
The overall research plan remains essentially unchanged. The main challenges foreseen
for 2007 include:
• Consolidation of research experience, summarising the lessons learned, and definition of the research axes for the years 2008-2012.
• Research on complex issues such as vulnerability and risk assessment, tsunami runup estimation, disintegration of material during sliding, rainfall-induced landslides,
earthquake response, etc.
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Annual Report - 2006
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
20031103-4
2007-03-31
-
3
• Identification of the niches where the combined expertise of ICG partners could be
put into practical use on the international arena.
• International networking.
• Further development of international university graduate programmes in geohazards.
• Attracting PhD candidates, post-docs and guest researchers to Norway.
• Active participation in the research programmes related to natural hazards in EU’s 7th
Frame Programme.
• Running and planning new international conferences, seminars and workshops.
• Increased publication in highly respected scientific journals.
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Annual Report - 2006
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
20031103-4
2007-03-31
-
4
Contents
1
BACKGROUND.........................................................................................................................5
2
ORGANISATION OF ICG.........................................................................................................5
3
ACTIVITIES OF BOARD OF DIRECTORS.............................................................................8
4
TECHNICAL ACTIVITIES OF ICG IN 2006 ...........................................................................9
4.1 Core research activities .....................................................................................................9
4.2 The Åknes/Tafjord Project................................................................................................9
4.3 Tsunami Field Survey to Java 2006 ................................................................................15
5
NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, AND OTHER ICG
ACTIVITIES IN 2006...............................................................................................................19
5.1 ICG Publications in 2006 ................................................................................................19
5.2 National and international contacts made on geohazards in 2006 ..................................19
5.3 Other international activities ...........................................................................................19
5.4 Web site...........................................................................................................................20
6
DOCTORAL CANDIDATES AND GUEST RESEARCHERS IN 2006 ................................21
7
ACCOUNTING 2006................................................................................................................22
7.1 Cash funding (kNOK) .....................................................................................................22
7.2 In kind (kNOK)...............................................................................................................22
8
PLANNED ACTIVITIES AND BUDGET FOR 2007.............................................................22
8.1 Research Projects ............................................................................................................22
8.2 International networking .................................................................................................23
8.3 EU proposals and projects with financing from other sources........................................23
8.4 Organising conferences and workshops in 2006 and 2007 .............................................23
8.5 ICG budget for 2007 .......................................................................................................24
Appendix A – ICG Publications in 2006
Appendix B – Results of Midway Evaluation of ICG
Review and reference document
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Annual Report - 2006
1
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
20031103-4
2007-03-31
-
5
BACKGROUND
The "International Centre for Geohazards" (ICG) is a Centre of Excellence
(Senter for Fremragende Forskning, SFF) established by the Research Council
of Norway in 2003. The Norwegian Centres of Excellence scheme is designed
to stimulate Norwegian research groups to set up centres devoted to long-term
basic research. The intention is to raise the quality of Norwegian research and
bring more researchers and research groups up to a high international standard.
ICG is a consortium of five partners. Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI)
is the host organisation for ICG. Other partners in the centre are University of
Oslo (UiO), Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU),
NORSAR, and Geological Survey of Norway (NGU). The consortium may be
expanded with "associated partners" subject to agreement by all five main partners.
ICG’s objective is to be an international centre of expertise on basic and
applied research on geo-related natural hazards (geohazards), such as landslides, earthquakes and tsunamis. The aim is to develop knowledge that can
help save lives and reduce damage to infrastructure and the environment.
Another aim is to train graduate students and highly-qualified researchers from
Norway and abroad.
2
ORGANISATION OF ICG
ICG has its own Board of Directors (Steering Committee). Each of the ICG
partners, NGI, NTNU, UiO, NORSAR and NGU, has a representative on the
Steering Committee. In addition, the Steering Committee has at least one
external representative from Norway and one international representative. The
Research Council of Norway may also appoint a member to the Steering Committee. ICG has associated partners, e.g. University of Tromsø, but they do not
have a representative on the Steering Committee.
As the host organisation, NGI appointed the director of ICG, and NGI’s representative is the chairman of the Steering Committee.
The activities of the ICG are grouped into three categories:
1. Research projects
2. Training and education
3. International networking and dissemination of information
The organisation chart and the project chart of ICG are shown on the following
pages. The ICG projects and other ICG activities are elaborated further later in
the report.
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
Annual Report - 2005
20031103-3
2006-03-31
6
Organisation chart of ICG as of 31 December 2006
Board of Directors
Kaare Høeg (UiO/NGI), Chairman
Philippe Jeanjean (BP)
Morten Smelror (NGU)
Steinar Nordal (NTNU)
Anders Elverhøi (UiO)
Steinar Schanche (NVE)
Anders Dahle (NORSAR)
Tor-Inge Tjelta (Statoil)
NGI
Suzanne Lacasse
Managing Director
Dr. Farrokh Nadim, Director
Dr. Anders Solheim, Deputy Director
Tini van der Harst, Administrative Assistant
ICG Research Projects and Themes
Technical Adviser
Prof. Kaare Høeg
International Scientific Advisors
Prof. Gholamreza Mesri (U.of Illinois)
Prof. Herbert H. Einstein (MIT)
Prof. Steven Kramer (U. of Washington)
Prof. Kok-Kwang Phoon (Nat. U. of Singapore)
ICG Project 1
ICG Project 2
ICG Project 3
ICG Project 4
ICG Project 5
ICG Project N
Project Manager
Project Manager
Project Manager
Project Manager
Project Manager
Project Manager
Researchers
Researchers
Researchers
Researchers
Researchers
Researchers
Students
Students
Students
Students
Students
Students
Theme A - Theme Coordinator
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc
Theme B - Theme Coordinator
Theme C - Theme Coordinator
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
Annual Report - 2005
20031103-3
2006-03-31
7
Project chart of ICG as of 31 December 2006
Dr. Farrokh Nadim, Director
Dr. Anders Solheim, Deputy Director
Tini van der Harst, Administrative Assistant
Technical Adviser
Prof. Kaare Høeg
ICG Project
Project Managers
Vulnerability and risk analysis for geohazards
Earthquakes – hazard, risk and loss estimation
Rockslides and engineering geology – Stability, failure, sliding
and consequences
Landslides in soil slopes
Offshore geohazards
Slide Dynamics and mechanics of disintegration
Tsunami modelling and prediction
Development of graduate studies in geohazards
PhD-candidates:
Graziella Devoli (UiO)
Roger Ebeltoft (NTNU)
Sylfest Glimsdal (UiO)
Maj Gøril Glåmen (NTNU)
Gustav Grimstad (NTNU
Guro Grøneng (NTNU)
Jean-Sébastien L'Heureux (NTNU)
Harald Iwe (UiO)
Vidar Kveldsvik (NTNU)
Finn Løvholt (UiO)
Arne Moe (NTNU)
Trond Nordvik (NTNU)
Bård Romsdal (UiO)
Inger Lise Solberg (NTNU)
Vikas Thakur (NTNU)
Dr. Suzanne Lacasse (NGI)
Prof. Hilmar Bungum (NORSAR)
Dr. Lars H. Blikra (NGU)
Mr. Håkon Heyedahl (NGI)
Dr. Anders Solheim (NGI)
Prof. Anders Elverhøi (UiO)
Dr. Carl Harbitz (NGI)
Prof. Steinar Nordal (NTNU)
Themes covering several projects
Geophysics for geohazards
GIT applications in geohazards
Debris flows and rock slide dynamics
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc
International Scientific Advisors
Prof. Gholamreza Mesri (U.of Illinois)
Prof. Herbert H. Einstein (MIT)
Prof. Steven Kramer (U. of Washington)
Prof. Kok-Kwang Phoon (Nat. U. of Singapore
Guest Researchers
Dr. Marco Uzielli, Prof. Bak Kong Low, Prof. Rathina Anbalagan,
Ms. Arzu Erener
Ms. Carolina Sigaran
Dr. Caterina Melchiorre
Dr. Kalle Kronholm
Dr. Shaoli Yang
Dr. Fabio De Blasio
Prof. Michael Long, Dr Gregoire Pirol, Dr Li Sa
Theme Coordinator
Dr. Isabelle Lecomte (NORSAR)
Prof. Bernd Etzelmüller (UiO)
Mr. Ulrik Domaas (NGI)
Professors from Norway active in ICG:
Anders Elverhøi (UiO)
Bernd Etzelmüller (UiO)
Leiv-Jacob Gelius (UiO)
Bjørn Gjevik (UiO)
Lars Grande (NTNU)
Svein Hamran (UiO)
Kaare Høeg (UiO)
Andreas Kääb (UiO)
Hans Petter Langtangen (UiO)
Terje Midtbø (NTNU)
Farrokh Nadim (NTNU & UiO)
Bjørn Nilsen (NTNU)
Steinar Nordal (NTNU)
Geir Kleivstul Pedersen (UiO)
Kåre Rokoengen (NTNU)
Rolf Sandven (NTNU)
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
Annual Report - 2006
3
20031103-4
2007-03-31
8
ACTIVITIES OF BOARD OF DIRECTORS
The main responsibility of ICG’s Steering Committee is to set the priorities in
the yearly research plans. The Steering Committee also acts as a technical
advisor to the Director of ICG.
The Steering Committee shall also discuss and deal with
•
•
•
annual budget
annual technical report(s)
annual financial report
The annual technical and financial report (this document) is prepared by the
Director of the Centre and delivered to the Managing Director of NGI, who is
responsible for reporting the activities of ICG to The Research Council of
Norway.
The ICG Steering Committee is composed of:
Prof. Kaare Høeg (UiO/NGI), Chairman
Dr Morten Smelror (NGU)
Prof. Anders Elverhøi (UiO)
Mr. Anders Dahle (NORSAR)
Prof. Steinar Nordal (NTNU)
Mr Steinar Schanche (NVE)
Mr Tor-Inge Tjelta (Statoil)
Dr Philippe Jeanjean (BP, USA)
The Steering Committee held 2 meetings in 2006:
Meeting No. 1/06:
Meeting No. 2/06:
15 March 2006
6 December 2006
The following meetings in 2007 are planned:
Meeting No. 1/07:
Meeting No. 2/07:
3.1
23 May 2007
November/December 2007
Midway evaluation
The Board of Directors were involved in the preparation of the ICG report to
RCN. The results of the evaluation are enclosed in Appendix B.
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Annual Report - 2006
4
TECHNICAL ACTIVITIES OF ICG IN 2006
4.1
Core research activities
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
20031103-4
2007-03-31
9
ICG divided its technical activities in 2006 into nine projects, and significant
progress was done on each:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Risk and vulnerability analysis for geohazards
Risk and vulnerability analysis for geohazards
Stability of rock slopes
Stability of soil slopes
Offshore geohazards
Slide dynamics and mechanics of disintegration
Tsunami modelling and prediction
Development of graduate studies in geohazards
Prevention and mitigation (with focus on monitoring and early warning
systems)
In addition to these projects, three "themes" that involve several projects were
given high priority, and a Theme Coordinator was designated for streamlining
the lateral cooperation among the technical projects in each theme:
•
•
•
Applications of geophysics to geohazards
Applications of Geographical Information Technology (GIT) to geohazards
Debris flows and rock slide dynamics
Detailed information about the ICG technical projects and themes is available
on the ICG web site www.geohazards.no.
In 2006 the partners in the ICG were involved in several high profile national
and international projects. Two of these projects are presented below.
4.2
The Åknes/Tafjord Project
Rockfalls and rockslides are among the most serious natural hazards in
Norway, mainly because of their tsunamigenic potential. The three most
serious natural disasters in Norway in the 20th century were related to tsunamis
triggered by massive rockslides into fjords or lakes in western Norway (Loen,
1905 and 1936; Tafjord, 1934), causing more than 170 fatalities. With the
increased public attention on these problems in Norway and elsewhere, study
of risks associated with rock slope failures has been an important ICG activity
for several years.
The potential rockslides and rockfalls in the Storfjord region in western
Norway have been in strong focus during the past few years. A massive
rockslide/rockfall at Åknes in Stranda municipality or at Hegguraksla in
Norddal municipality would have dramatic consequences, as the tsunami
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Annual Report - 2006
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
20031103-4
2007-03-31
10
triggered by the rockslide/rockfall will pose a threat to many communities
around Storfjord. The Åknes/Tafjord project, was initiated by the Norwegian
Government and the local municipalities in 2005 to establish an operative
warning and evacuation system as the main tool for avoiding loss of human
lives should a massive rockslide take place. All ICG partners are involved in
the Åknes/Tafjord project. The research of several PhD-candidates in ICG is
directly related to the Åknes/Tafjord project and research activities of ICG
provide scientific support to the monitoring and early warning system that is
being designed and installed.
Municipality of Fjøra in Tafjord before (left) and after (right) the tsunami
triggered by a massive rockslide into Tafjord in April 1934.
Experiences from Norway and other countries show that such events are
preceded by many warning signs in form of increased rate of displacement,
vibrations, and small slide events. Continuous monitoring often shows an
accelerating rate of displacement several weeks and even months before the
major slide event. The Åknes/Tafjord project includes site investigations,
monitoring, and warning system for the potentially unstable rock slopes at
Åknes in Stranda County and at Hegguraksla in Norddal County. The project
also includes a regional susceptibility and hazard analysis for the inner
Storfjord region, which includes Tafjord, Norddalsfjord, Sunnylvsfjord and
Geirangerfjord.
The Åknes/Tafjord project organisation includes a steering group, two working
groups, and a project group at the Emergency Preparedness Centre in Stranda.
The project cooperates with a large group of national and international
organisations and consulting companies. These include Stranda, Norddal,
Stordal and Ørskog municipalities; the Møre and Romsdal County
Government; International Centre for Geohazards (ICG); Geological Survey of
Norway (NGU); Directorate for Civil Protection and Emergency Planning
(DSB); Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI); Norwegian University of
Science and Technology (NTNU); University of Bergen; University of Oslo;
The University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS); NORSAR; Fugro Survey A/S;
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Annual Report - 2006
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
20031103-4
2007-03-31
11
ISPAS; UMS; Blom Geomatics; ITAS; Norut IT; EL24; Umoe IKT; ETH
Zürich (Switzerland); University of Milano-Bicocca (Italy); University of
Lausanne (Switzerland); University of Grenoble, LGIT (France); CSG (Italy);
and LISALab (Italy).
Location map of the study area in Åknes/Tafjord project
Most of the planned site investigation related to the potentially unstable rock
slopes at Åknes and Hegguraksla was finished in 2006. At Åknes, slope
movements were detected from the surface down to a depth of 60 m. The
observed deformation pattern confirms the earlier assumptions regarding the
volume of the potentially unstable rock mass. However, there is quite a large
uncertainty on whether the most likely mode of slope failure is one large event
involving a rock volume of over 30 mill. m3, or whether the failure will consist
of many smaller slide events. Interpretation of the latest measurements
suggests a slide volume of 10-14 mill. m3 as the most likely scenario. The
numerical modelling of the tsunami caused by the rockslide also involves many
uncertainties. To reduce the uncertainties, physical modelling is being done at
UiO and NTNU to improve the understanding of the initial wave pattern
generated by the sliding rock masses. A huge rockslide with volume greater
than 30 mill. m3 will pose a serious threat to coastal areas of 4 towns, and may
even have consequences further out along the fjord.
The slopes displacements at Åkens and Hegguraksla are continuously being
monitored. At Hegguraksla, no movements of the rock slope have been
detected so far. However, displacements of the order of a few millimetres per
year may have gone unnoticed. Obtaining accurate data in bad weather
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Annual Report - 2006
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
20031103-4
2007-03-31
12
conditions had been a challenge. Significant effort is underway in 2007 to
deploy more robust instruments and better data communication to the earlywarning centre in Stranda. The large datasets obtained from different
instrumentation and monitoring systems are being integrated into a database
that would form the basis for future analyses.
Overview of the Åknes rock slope. The white dotted line indicates the contour of the
unstable area. The length of the “top scarp”/upper crack is about 700m. Numbers
show approximate dates of known rock slides and black dotted lines show their
assumed area.
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
Annual Report - 2006
20031103-4
2007-03-31
13
Deformations at Åknes measured with radar (LISA-Radar and NGU). The
figure on the left shows the displacements for the period 16 August – 9
September 2006, while the one on the right is for the period 10-28 September
2006.
The potentially unstable rock
block being monitored at
Hegguraksla. Note the open
cracks on the surface.
Preliminary results of tsunami modelling suggest an inundation height of up to
35 m at Hellesylt for rockslide volume of 35 mill. m3 at Åknes.
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Annual Report - 2006
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
20031103-4
2007-03-31
14
Considering the experience from similar international monitoring projects and
the local needs in the Storfjord, the monitoring system was designed on the
basis of following principles:
• Several independent monitoring systems should be installed to ensure
that the system is operative at all times.
• Drastic variations in weather and atmospheric conditions create a
challenging situation in the fjords.
• The potential for snow avalanche and rock bursts is quite high in most
of the area that is being monitored.
• Solar panels do not provide sufficient electricity in this region. Energy
supply must be established from several sources to ensure a stable and
reliable electrical supply to the instruments.
• Different communication systems must be used to ensure continuous
data flow from the instruments to the Emergency Preparedness Centre
in Stranda.
High-speed photographs of the physical modelling of wave generation being
done at University of Oslo. The model for the sliding rock mass is a block with
a sharp front. The height of the block is 10 cm, which is a scaled model of a 50
m thick slide mass.
The monitoring system at Åknes consists of the following components.
Surface monitoring instruments:
• GPS-network with 8 antennas
• Total station with 30 prisms
• Ground-based radar with 10 reflectors
• Five extensometers that measure the distance between cracks
• 2 simple lasers that measure the distance between the two largest cracks
• Geofones that measure vibrations
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Annual Report - 2006
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
20031103-4
2007-03-31
15
Instruments in borehole:
• Inclinometers that measure the movement
• Piezometers for measuring pore pressure (water level)
• Temperature and electrical resistivity of water
Meteorological station:
• Temperature
• Precipitation
• Snow depth
• Wind speed
• Ground temperature
• Radiation
Locations of the GPS network and reflectors for ground-based radar (left);
locations of the total station and the prisms for measuring distance (right).
The main ICG activities related to the Åknes/Tafjord project in 2007 are
detailed assessment of the stability of rock slope at Åknes, modelling of the
tsunamis generated by different rockslide scenarios, and a comprehensive event
tree analysis of the risk posed by the potentially unstable rock slope at Åknes to
the residents of the closest municipalities. This analysis will include a wide
pooling of expert opinion.
In the autumn of 2007, the Åknes/Tafjord early warning and emergency
preparedness system will become operational. As part of this system, the
Emergency Preparedness Centre in Stranda will get a permanent staff and
organisation. The inauguration date for the system will be 1 October 2007 at
the latest.
4.3
Field Survey after the Tsunami of July 2006 in Java
Background
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Annual Report - 2006
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
20031103-4
2007-03-31
16
On July 17th, 2006, a distance of more than 300 km along the southwest and
south-central provinces of Java, Indonesia, was struck by a tsunami. The
tsunami hit the coast about 40 minutes after a magnitude 7.7 earthquake with
epicentre about 200 km south of Java. The waves were locally extraordinarily
high for such an earthquake (run-up heights exceeding 20 m), caused severe
destruction, and killed more
than 600 people. More than
two thirds of the fatalities
were women and children.
The tsunami occurred at low
tide and at a time with few
tourists on the beaches,
otherwise the death toll
would have been much
higher.
Map segment by Bandung Inst. of Technology
Within one week after the
tsunami, the International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST, partly supported by
the National Science Foundation, NSF) deployed a team of tsunami scientists
from Indonesia, USA, New Zealand, Norway, and Greece. ICG was called for
the mission based on its background in tsunami modelling and risk assessment,
and was represented by Dr Carl B. Harbitz, ICG/NGI. After a few intensive
days of preparation including collecting the most relevant background
information (earthquake, tide and wave characteristics, known observations so
far, previous events, etc.), the team gathered in the city of Bandung, central
western Java.
The Field Survey
The team was split in small
groups of 2-4 scientists
plus a driver. Some of the
groups were also lucky to
have local translators, an
obvious advantage in
organising
and
interviewing.
Altogether
the
team
covered a distance of about
600 km along the southern
coast of Java. Tsunami
flow depths and run-up Devastations and partly cleared flotsam at
heights were clearly higher Bulak Benda.
than expected from the
first reports in the news, probably because the more touristy places were not
among the most badly affected areas.
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Annual Report - 2006
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
20031103-4
2007-03-31
17
ITST measured tsunami flow depths (above ground), maximum run-up heights
(above mean sea level), inundation distance, and sediment deposition
thickness. Run-up heights were more than 10 m several places, with a peak of
21 m, while the inundation distance reached hundreds of metres in several
places. The damages were tremendous. The unusual distribution of run-up and
inundation suggests a possible local submarine slump or landslide in addition
to the earthquake as the tsunami source mechanism.
Unfortunately, good or unique
recordings were difficult to
obtain in several places made to
the complex terrain configuration (spits, beach ridges,
inland declivity, etc.), efficient
clearing of flotsam, ruins, and
debris by bulldozers, and
confusion due to previous
demolition. Additional nonscientific
challenges
were
related
to
linguistic
misunderstandings, sharp or Ruins with tsunami low depth marks and
overhanging items, finding safe overhanging items west of Cikembulan.
food and accommodation, as
well as poor knowledge of the local fauna.
Eyewitnesses describing tsunami flow depth in their house in Karang (left) and
wave characteristics in Singkil (right) during interviews.
Measurements were made by folding rules, laser binoculars or laser range
finders. Position (by GPS) was registered. Together with the time, this was also
used to correct the height measurements for the tide level. Damages and
measurements were documented by photos. In addition, several interviews
were made and taped on video. The interviewees reported 2-3 incident waves
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Annual Report - 2006
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
20031103-4
2007-03-31
18
where the second was often the highest. The wave was described as a
sediment-rich bore. The interviewees also described other wave characteristics
and were very helpful in pointing out flow depths and inundation.
The team experienced the importance of having female members in the groups,
enabling or allowing contact with the local women and their children, who
often made the best first-hand witnesses being more often present on the
beaches or in their nearby houses when the tsunami struck.
Sediment sheets of 5-15 cm thickness were commonly observed in the rice
Interview with women and children in Ciparanti, the driver helps out as translator (left).
Rice paddy fields covered by sediment deposits after tsunami inundation (right).
paddy fields behind the beach ridges. The sand was often hard to detect in
between grass and plants on the ground, and digging is often required to detect
the layers. Thinner layers of sand were more easily detectable on solid ground,
roads, floors, and terraces.
Along the route, the ITST groups also saw Indonesian survey teams,
emergency preparedness teams, and camps for homeless tsunami survivors.
No warnings
Indonesia has a long record of tsunamis. A tsunami event in 1994 killed more
than 200 people along the southern coast of Java, while the recent 2004 Indian
Ocean tsunami caused more than 160,000 casualties in the Ache province in
Indonesia. In spite of all these experiences, there was no public awareness
campaign or operative tsunami warning system prior to the July 2006 Java
tsunami.
The Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System announced by UNESCO two
weeks prior to the event was not functioning. The warning issued by the Pacific
Tsunami Warning Centre (PTWC) did not trigger any local instruction on
evacuation, due to short notice and because the guards awaited the
tsunamometer buoy signals. However, the buoys had broken moorings and
were not operational.
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Annual Report - 2006
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
20031103-4
2007-03-31
19
In most places the local population did not experience any shaking of the
ground or withdrawal of the sea prior to the first tsunami impact. This is
because the earthquake was too slow to be felt on land, and because low tide
combined with normal large and breaking wind waves masked most of the
recession.
The July 2006 Java tsunami illustrates the need for education and awareness
campaigns in regions too close to the epicentre of tsunami-generating
earthquakes for a tsunami early warning system (TEWS) to be effective. When
neither ground shaking nor sea recession can be easily recognised, the tsunami
can at the best be recognised only shortly before impact. This requires a
spontaneous self-evacuation where the people need to know the best escape
routes to the most convenient places, how high these places need to be and for
how long they need to stay there.
5
NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, AND OTHER
ICG ACTIVITIES IN 2006
5.1
ICG Publications in 2006
The ICG Publication List for 2006 is given in Appendix A.
5.2
National and international contacts made on geohazards in 2006
In addition to the contacts listed in the Annual Reports for 2003 through 2005,
the following new international and national contacts were made:
•
•
•
•
•
5.3
India – Memorandum of Understanding was signed with Department of
Science and Technology of India to cooperate on Phase 2 of research
related to landslides, tsunamis and remote sensing starting in January 2007
(Phase 1 was closed in December 2006).
Italy – University of Bologna
France – Pierre and Marie Currie University in Paris
UK – Geotechnical Consulting Group (GCG), plans for 2 workshops in
2007.
USA – Contacts with the US Army Corps of Engineers and several actors
in aftermath of Hurricane Katerina and unsatisfactory performance of
protection levees in New Orleans.
Other international activities
ICG is an active member of the international non-profit organisation ICL
(International Consortium for Landslides), which was established by UNESCO
in Japan.
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Annual Report - 2006
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
20031103-4
2007-03-31
20
NGI/ICG continued work on two regional network programmes, one in Asia
and one in Central America, to increase the local competence in managing
risks related to different types of landslides.
A new regional project was initiated in 2006 in the Caribbean to increase the
local competence in managing risks related to tsunamis, earthquakes and
landslides. The ICG partners NGI, NORSAR and UiO are involved in the
Caribbean project.
The ICG partners NORSAR and NGI are involved in several institutional cooperation projects in India with focus on problems related to earthquakes, landslides and tsunamis.
In 2006, NORSAR and NGI, in cooperation with the Technical University of
Madrid, started a 3-year project on earthquake vulnerability assessment of
urban areas of Central America.
ICG personnel were heavily involved in the organisation and planning of
several large and important conferences, including:
• Offshore Technology Conference, Houston, Texas, April-May 2007
• First North American Landslide Conference, Vail, Colorado, June 2007
• First International Symposium on Geotechnical Safety & Risk,
Shanghai, China, October 2007
• 10th International Symposium on Landslides and Engineered Slopes,
Xi’an, China, September 2008
• Hong Kong Forum (2007)
• 33rd International Geological Congress, Oslo, August 2008
5.4
Web site
The web site of ICG is www.geohazards.no. The web site was redesigned in
May 2005, and it is the main channel for disseminating information about ICG
to the general public, as well as the specialists.
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
Annual Report - 2006
6
20031103-4
2007-03-31
21
DOCTORAL CANDIDATES AND GUEST RESEARCHERS IN 2006
ICG’s PhD-candidates in 2006
Name
Nationality University
Krishna Aryal*
Graziella Devoli
Roger Ebeltoft
Sylfest Glimsdal
Maj Gøril Glåmen
Guro Grøneng
Harald Iwe
Vidar Kveldsvik
Finn Løvholt
Arne Moe
Bård Romstad
Inger Lise Solberg
Vikas Thakur
Trond Nordvik
Jean-Sébastien L’Heureux
Gustav Grimstad
Hedda Breien
José Cepeda
Arash Zakeri
*
Nepal
Italy
Norway
Norway
Norway
Norway
Norway
Norway
Norway
Norway
Norway
Norway
India
Norway
Canada
Norway
Norway
El Salvador
Canada
NTNU
UiO
NTNU
UiO
NTNU
NTNU
UiO
NTNU
UiO
NTNU
UiO
NTNU
NTNU
NTNU
NTNU
NTNU
UiO
UiO
UiO
Financial source
Appointment
Percent
period in 2006 engagement
NTNU
01/01 – 28/02
20
ICG
100
01/01 – 31/12
NTNU/Vegvesenet
100
01/01 – 31/12
UiO/SIMULA
25
01/01 – 31/12
NTNU
65
01/05 – 31/12
ICG
100
01/08 – 31/12
NGI/ICG
25
01/01 – 31/12
NGI/ICG
60
01/03 – 31/12
NGI/ICG
75
01/01 – 31/12
NTNU/ICG
75
01/01 – 31/12
UiO/ICG
100
01/01 – 31/12
ICG/NTNU/NGU/NVE 01/01 – 31/12
100
NTNU
100
01/01 – 31/12
NTNU
100
01/01 – 31/12
NTNU/Vegvesenet/ICG 01/01 – 31/12
100
NTNU
100
01/08 – 31/12
Vista Programme
100
01/01 – 31/12
ICG / Quota Prog.
100
01/01 – 31/12
IS-BILAT Prog. / ICG 01/02 – 31/12
90
Dr. Aryal Krishna, successfully defended his PhD thesis in May 2006, and
received his doctoral degree from NTNU.
Post-doctoral and guest researchers at ICG in 2006
Position
Post-doc.
Post-doc.
Post-doc.
Post-doc.
Post-doc.
Post-doc.
Post-doc.
Visiting
professor
Visiting
professor
Visiting
professor
Guest
researcher
Guest
researcher
Name
Dr Kalle Kronholm
Dr Shaoli Yang
Dr Gregoire Pirol
Dr Li Sa
Dr Marco Uzielli
Dr Fabio De Blasio
Dr Caterina Melchiorre
Prof. Bak Kong Low
Prof. Michael Long
Prof. Rathina Anbalagan
Ms Carolina Sigaran*
Ms Arzu Erener**
*
**
Nationality
Appointment
period in 2006
01/01 – 31/12
15/08 – 31/12
01/01 – 31/12
01/01 – 31/10
01/01 – 31/10
01/01 – 31/12
01/09 – 31/12
15/05 – 25/08
Financial source
Denmark
China
France
China
Italy
Italy
Italy
Singapore
Academic
degree
Ph.D.
Ph.D.
Ph.D.
Ph.D.
Ph.D.
Ph.D.
Ph.D.
Ph.D.
Ireland
Ph.D.
15/09 – 15/12
NTNU
India
Ph.D.
29/06 – 27/07
NGI
Costa Rica
MSc
16/10 – 22/11
ICG
Turkey
MSc
20/10 – 31/12
ICG
NGI / RCN
NGI / ICG
NTNU
NTNU
NGI
UiO
NGU / RCN
NGI
PhD-candidate at ITC, The Netherlands
PhD-candidate at Middle East Technical University, Turkey
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
Annual Report - 2006
7
ACCOUNTING 2006
7.1
Cash funding (kNOK)
20031103-4
2007-03-31
22
The numbers below are minimum estimates. The actual cash funding from ICG
partners and other industrial sources are greater.
Activity
Technical Projects
Non-technical activities
Administration & Steering
Committee meetings
Total
7.2
1,400
Funding
NGU/NORSAR/
NGI
UiO/NTNU
6,930
5,700
700
500
12,270
8,130
RCN
9,820
1,050
SUM
Other/
Industrial
5,400
-
27,850
1,750
1,900
5,400
31,500
5,700
In kind (kNOK)
The numbers below are minimum estimates. The actual numbers are higher.
Contribution
NGI
Personnel
2,000
IT
500
Office spaces
2,000
Laboratory/Equipment
500
Project work / proposals/ etc.
1,000
Stipend to PhD-candidates
900
TOTAL
6,900
*
Included in "Project work / proposals/ etc."
NGU
200
500
600
50
200
130
1,680
NTNU
*
0
100
500
100
500
1,900
3,100
8
PLANNED ACTIVITIES AND BUDGET FOR 2007
8.1
Research Projects
UiO
*
0
100
500
100
500
1,300
2,500
NORSAR
200
500
300
100
700
1,800
The following projects were approved for 2007 by the Board of Directors:
• Risk and vulnerability analysis for geohazards
• Earthquake hazard, risk and loss
• Stability of rock slopes
• Geomechanical modelling
• Offshore geohazards
• Slope instability assessment and hazard zonation
• Slide dynamics
• Tsunami modelling and prediction
• Monitoring, remote sensing and early warning systems
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Annual Report - 2006
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
20031103-4
2007-03-31
23
In addition, 3 cross-expertise areas that involve several projects have assigned
"theme coordinators":
• Applications of geophysics to geohazards
• Applications of Geographical Information Technology (GIT) to
geohazards
• Prevention and mitigation
In addition the graduate (MSc and PhD) programmes initiated respectively in
2003 and 2005 at UiO and NTNU are continuing.
8.2
International networking
Travels to disaster prevention and natural hazard centres in USA, Canada,
Hong Kong, China and Japan are planned. Active participation (lecturing) in
10-20 international conferences is planned for 2007. In most cases, ICG
representatives are asked to give keynote or state-of-the-art lectures.
8.3
EU proposals and projects with financing from other sources
This will be a continuous activity throughout the existence of ICG.
ICG is already involved in the Integrated Project LESSLOSS, the STREP
Projects IRASMOS, TRANSFER and SAFER, and the I3-project NERIES
(Network of Research Infrastructure for European Seismology) in European
Commission’s 6th Frame Programme.
The project GeoExtreme, financed by the NORKLIMA programme of the
Research Council of Norway, is executed by ICG partners NGU and NGI,
together with the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, CICERO and
Norwegian Meteorological Institute.
8.4
Organising conferences and workshops in 2006 and 2007
In cooperation with Engineering Conferences International (ECI), ICG
organised the international conference on "Geohazards – Technical, Economical and Social Risk Evaluation" in Lillehammer in June 2006. The conference
attracted about 80 participants from all over the world.
At the Offshore Technology Conference ’07 in Houston, ICG is organising 2
sessions where the research activities of ICG and other international actors in
the area of offshore geohazards will be presented.
ICG is planning two international workshops in connection with the
Åknes/Tafjord project in August 2007: a hazard and risk assessment workshop,
and a field trip and workshop on the potential Åknes rock slide and tsunami.
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
Annual Report - 2006
8.5
20031103-4
2007-03-31
24
ICG budget for 2007
The table below reflects funding from The Research Council of Norway only.
Considerable cash and in-kind contributions from the ICG partners and other
sources of funding come in addition to the amounts below (see Section 7).
ICG budget in 2007 based on funding from The Research Council of Norway
10,605
Graduate programmes on
geohazards
200
Coordination of 3 themes
595
Non-technical activities: IT
solutions, EU Proposals, web
site & information, conference
participation
560
International networking
200
Administration & Steering
Committee meetings
Contingency
Total
Comments
See Section 8.1.
See Section 8.1.
SUM
Total for technical
projects = kNOK 11,400
9 technical projects
Funding from
Research
Council (kNOK)
Total for non-technical activities =
kNOK 2,150
Activity
1,170
220
kNOK 13,550
The total expenditure charged to the funds provided by The Research Council
of Norway is budgeted to be kNOK 13,550 in 2007. This is kNOK 1,550 more
the annual funding provided to ICG. The shortfall is to be covered from the
funds in 2008. Several of the PhD-candidates in ICG are expect to graduate in
2007 and 2008 and the costs associated with PhD-candidates will be reduced in
the coming years.
Given the momentum of ICG, and the convincing results obtained so far, a
major challenge for ICG is complete its activities for an annual budget of 12
MNOK from RCN. For this reason, in the “Future Plans” (Part D) section of
the report prepared by ICG for the midway evaluation, ICG has applied for an
annual funding of 18 MNOK for the period 2008-2012.
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
Annual Report - 2006
Appendix A – ICG Publications in 2006
Appendix A
-
20031103-4
2007-03-31
A1
ICG Publications in 2006
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\appa_icg-publications.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Annual Report - 2006
Appendix A – ICG Publications in 2006
NOTE:
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
20031103-4
2007-03-31
A2
ICG Publication numbers 1 – 114 are listed in the ICG Annual
Reports for 2004 and 2005. Some earlier references missing in the
previous lists are included below.
115.
De Blasio, F.V. (in press)
Levees creation in debris flows during vigorous dewatering.
Geografia Fisica e Dinamica Quaternaria.
116.
Pettenati, F., L. Sirovich, H. Bungum, and J. Schweitzer (2005)
Source inversion of regional intensity patterns of five earthquakes from southwestern Norway.
Bolletino di Geofisica Teorica ed Applicata, 46(2-3), 111-134.
117.
Bungum, H. and Olesen, O. (2005)
The 31st of August 1819 Lurøy earthquake revisited.
Norwegian Journal of Geology, 85, 245-252.
118.
De Blasio, F.V. Elverhøi, A., Issler, D, Harbitz, C.B., Bryn, P. and Lien, R.
(2004)
Flow models of natural debris flows originating from overconsolidated clay
materials.
Marine Geology. 213, 439-455.
119.
Lastras, G., De Blasio, F.V., Canals, M., Elverhøi, A. (in press)
Conceptual and numerical modelling of the BIG’95 debris flow, Western
Mediterranean Sea.
Journal of Sedimentary Research.
120.
Leynaud, D., Mienert, J., & Nadim, F. (2004)
Slope stability assessment of the Helland Hansen area offshore the midNorwegian margin.
Marine Geology, 213, 457-480.
121.
Cai, X., Pedersen, G., and Langtangen, H. P. (2005)
A Parallel Multi-Subdomain Strategy for Solving the Boussinesq Water Wave
Equations.
Advances in Water Resources, 28 (3), pp 215-233.
122.
Cai, X., Pedersen, G., Langtangen, H. P., and Glimsdal, S. (2005)
Parallel simulation of tsunamis using a hybrid software approach.
Proceedings of the ParCo2005 Conference, Malaga, Spain, 13-16 Sep 2005.
123.
Jensen, A., Mayer, S., and Pedersen, G., (2005). Experiments and computation
of onshore breaking solitary waves. Meas. Sci. Technol. 16, 1913-1920.
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\appa_icg-publications.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Annual Report - 2006
Appendix A – ICG Publications in 2006
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
20031103-4
2007-03-31
A3
124.
Karlsrud, K., Bungum, H., Harbitz, C.B., Løvholt, F., Vangelsten, B.V., and
Glimsdal, S. (2005)
Strategy for re-construction in Thailand following the 26 December 2004
tsunami event.
In: Chu, Phoon & Yong (eds): International Conference on Geotechnical
Engineering for Disaster Mitigation & Rehabilitation. World Scientific
Publishing Company ISBN 981-256-469-1.
125.
Yang, S., Sandven, R. and Grande, L. (2006)
Steady state lines of sand-silt mixtures.
Canadian Geotechnical Journal 43: 1213-1219
126.
Devoli, G., Morales, A., and Høeg, K. (2006)
Historical landslides in Nicaragua – Collection and analysis of data.
Landslides, DOI 10.1007/s10346-006-0048-x. Published online July 2006.
127.
Solheim, A. (2006)
Submarine mass movements and their consequences, 2nd international
symposium: A short summary.
Norwegian Journal of Geology, 151-154
128.
Harbitz, C.B., Løvholt, F., Pedersen, G. & Masson, D.G.(2006)
Mechanisms of tsunami generation by submarine landslides: a short review
(2006): Norwegian Journal of Geology, Vol. 86, 249-258. Trondheim 2006.
129.
Hansen, L., Eilertsen, R., Solberg, I.-L., and Rokoengen, K. (2007)
Stratigraphic evaluation of a Holocene clay-slide in northern Norway.
Landslides, DOI 10.1007/s10346-006-0078-4. Published online January 2007.
130.
Løvholt, F., Bungum H., Harbitz, C.B., Glimsdal, S., Lindholm, C.D., Pedersen,
G. (2006)
Earthquake reltated tsunami hazard along the western coast of Thailand.
Nat. Hazards earth Syst. Sci., 6, 1-19, 2006
131
Gauer, P., Kern, M., Kristensen, K., Lied, K., Rammer, L. and Schreiber, H.
(2006)
On pulsed Doppler radar measurements of avalanches and their implication to
avalanche dynamics.
Cold Region Science and Technology.
132.
Devoli, G., Strauch, W., Chávez, G. and Høeg, K. (2007)
A landslide database for Nicaragua: A tool for landslide hazard management
Landslides, DOI 10.1007/s10346-006-0074-8. Published online January 2007.
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\appa_icg-publications.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Annual Report - 2006
Appendix B – Results of Midway Evaluation of ICG
Appendix B
-
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
20031103-4
2007-03-31
B1
Results of Midway
Evaluation of ICG
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\appb_icg-midway_evaluation.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Annual Report - 2006
Appendix B – Results of Midway Evaluation of ICG
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
20031103-4
2007-03-31
B2
THE INTERNATIONAL EVALUATION COMMITTEE
The interdisciplinary International Evaluation Committee was appointed by the
Research Council of Norway on 3 July 2006. The members were:
Professor Sten Grillner (Chair)
Professor Cecilia Albin
Professor Elena Anagnostopoulou
Professor Bertil Nilsson
Professor Preben Terndrup Pedersen
Professor Randolph Richards
Professor Colette Rolland
Professor Gerold Wefer
Professor Majorie Wilson
The Nobel Institute for Neurophysiology,
Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
Department of Peace and Conflict Research,
Uppsala University, Uppsala Sweden
Department of Philology, University of Crete,
Rethymno, Greece
Department of Religious Studies and
Theology, Göteborg University, Göteborg,
Sweden
Department of Mechanical Engineering,
Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby,
Denmark
Institute of Aquaculture, University of Stirling,
Stirling, UK
Centre de Recherche en Informatique,
Université Paris Panthéon Sorbonne, Paris,
France
Marum, Bremen University, Bremen,
Germany
Earth Sciences, School of Earth and
Environment, The University of Leeds, Leeds,
UK
In accordance with the procedure adopted for the evaluation process, the International
Evaluation Committee received the background material for the evaluation prior to a
meeting of the Committee in Oslo from 23 to 25 October 2006. During this meeting the
Committee conducted hearings with representatives of the centres and their host
institutions.)
INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR GEOHAZARDS (ICG), NORWEGIAN
GEOTECHNICAL INSTITUTE, OSLO
The goal of the CoE has been to establish an environment for scientific and
technological research on geohazards with the objective of reducing loss of life and
damage to infrastructure and environment. The centre is hosted within the Norwegian
Geotechnical Institute (NGI) and is a consortium of two private foundations (NGI and
NORSAR), one government organisation (NGU) and two universities (University of
Oslo (UiO) and Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim
(NTNU). Structurally it operates as a “distributed centre” with a central office in Oslo
(hosted within NGI) and satellite offices within each of the other partner organisations.
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\appb_icg-midway_evaluation.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Annual Report - 2006
Appendix B – Results of Midway Evaluation of ICG
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
20031103-4
2007-03-31
B3
This appears to work well, providing access to a wide range of laboratory and other
infrastructure resources. The ICG is one of only two Centres of Excellence located in a
non-university setting. The centre does not have its own Administrative Officer but is
fully supported by the Administration Division of NGI. Most of the PhD students from
UiO work in the ICG central office.
Research achievements at the time of evaluation
The ICG has undoubtedly achieved a worldwide reputation as one of the leading
international centres in geohazards research in its specialised field of landslides and
rock avalanches. To some degree this reflects positively on the international standing of
the host organisation, NGI. In this respect the ICG is close to achieving its original
vision that “within 5 years (it will) be the world authority and premier research group
on geo-related natural hazards onland and offshore”.
Whilst the centre’s output of publications appear to be extremely good (averaging ~ 4
papers per year per researcher) it is clear that a significant proportion of the output is in
the form of conference proceedings. In many respects this reflects the roots of the host
organisation (NGI); this approach to publication is quite normal in the fields of
engineering geology and geotechnics. Additionally a number of the publications listed
appear to reflect the work of ICG researchers before the CoE was initiated.
The milestones outlined in the original proposal lack explicit metrics against which the
outcome of the first three years of research can be evaluated quantitatively. In general
terms the programme of capacity building, research and its application appear to be on
schedule. One aspect of the programme relating to tsunamis has actually been
significantly expanded, reflecting the 2004 December 2004 disaster in Indonesia.
The ICG is rapidly expanding the range of its international partners, which include both
developed (e.g. Japan, Switzerland, Hong Kong, Netherlands, USA, Germany, Spain,
UK) and developing (e.g. Nicaragua, El Salvador, India, Thailand) countries. Almost
50% of the staff is of overseas origin. The successful partnership with US organisations
in an NSF-funded “offshore natural hazards” project ($ 2.4 million) may be regarded as
a benchmark. There is also evidence of a high success rate in the EU 6th Framework
Programme, attesting to the setting up of successful partnerships within Europe.
Researcher training appears to be of a very high standard, particularly that delivered
through the University of Oslo. Some 20 PhD students and 31 researchers were in post
in 2006. Two Masters degree programmes have been established: Environmental
Geology and Geohzards at UiO and Geotechnics and Geohazards at NTNU. These are
going well and likely to attract increasing numbers of both home and overseas students.
In general the centre has done well in attracting good foreign researchers, doctoral
students, post-doctoral and senior researchers.
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\appb_icg-midway_evaluation.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Annual Report - 2006
Appendix B – Results of Midway Evaluation of ICG
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
20031103-4
2007-03-31
B4
The centre appears to have established good industrial links, particularly with the
Norwegian offshore oil and gas industry. Some of its research outputs have extremely
important implications for civil protection authorities worldwide.
Organisational and administrative aspects
The leader of the CoE appears to have done an exceptionally good job in building up
the centre. The organisation of the centre and its management structure are well planned
and should be highlighted as a model for future Centres of Excellence. The
organisational structure with a Director, Deputy Director and Board of Governors who
oversee the work of theme coordinators and project managers is highly appropriate. The
model adopted is a matrix form of management which is common in industry but much
less so in the university sector. The leadership appears to be very strong which enhances
both the national and international profile of the centre. The Board of Directors also acts
as the Scientific Advisory Board. This appears to have worked well during the start-up
phase but is perhaps less appropriate as the centre moves into a more mature phase of
operations. The centre leaders recognise this in their self-evaluation report.
The relationships with the host and partner organisations appear to be incredibly
harmonious – far exceeding expectations. This is evidenced by the commitment that the
ICG will continue beyond 2012 when its Research Council funding ceases. The ICG has
contributed significantly to the strategic goals of NGI.
It is difficult to evaluate the standard of the premises and equipment without actually
seeing them. These appear to be as be excellent. Through its partner organisations the
ICG has access to state-of-the-art experimental facilities.
The issue of gender equality has been appropriately considered in the staffing of the
centre. However, the fields of engineering geology and geotechnics do not typically
attract many women. The fact that the Director of the host organisation, NGI, Dr
Lacasse, is female sends out a good message. The centre appears to be doing very well
(30% of researchers at ICG are female) in their recruitment of female scientists.
Research plans for the future five-year-period
During the first phase of activity the research emphasis has been on the basic
understanding of geohazards and developing appropriate methods for the assessment of
hazard and risk. In the second phase activities are planned to shift towards the
development of methodologies to assist decision-makers in dealing with geohazard
management. This will require the involvement of more staff whose basic training is
within the field of social sciences and social policy. The ongoing research plan is
ambitious but realistic within the likely funding limitations. It builds soundly on the
activities of the first 5 years, aiming to intensify its public outreach programmes. The
proposal for the second phase of activity includes development of a database of
landslide hazards along with web-based tools for the evaluation of the impact of major
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\appb_icg-midway_evaluation.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Annual Report - 2006
Appendix B – Results of Midway Evaluation of ICG
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
20031103-4
2007-03-31
B5
landslides. These activities could substantially raise the international profile of Norway
and Norwegian scientists as a “force for good”.
As far as it is possible to judge based on the information provided, the research
approach and methods appear to be appropriate. The ICG has been very smart in
building strategic alliances with international partners to provide access to large-scale
international facilities which do not exist in Norway (e.g. Cambridge Universitycentrifuge testing; University of Minnesota – flume tanks; Geotechnical Engineering
office in Hong Kong - full scale model slopes).
The centre already has international leadership in its specialist field of geohazards
research relating to landslides. It also has the critical mass to make fundamental
research contributions in this field. There is some question as to whether it has sufficient
staff with appropriate experience of social sciences as it moves into more policy-related
areas of research; this needs to be addressed. There are tremendous opportunities for
Norway to take international leadership in the development of tools for hazard mapping
and risk analysis (in the context of landslides and rock avalanches); these tools should
be developed for application on local, regional, national and continent-wide scales.
Clearly there are resource implications here; it would be a pity if the focus became
entirely national.
Based on the achievements of the ICG so far it seems clear that they have appropriate
training and recruitment policies. These will need some further consideration as they
start to change direction in the second 5 years of operation and need to bring in
expertise in the field of social sciences/social policy. International collaboration is
excellent and is set to expand.
The centre is in a position to attract good researchers from abroad. Currently 50% of the
research personnel come from overseas. Within the limitations of the available funding
this is probably an appropriate balance. As the prestige of the centre grows more
international scientists will wish to come there to work. A balance needs to be
maintained between quality and quantity.
Based on the available evidence the organisation of the centre will continue to translate
into a high level of efficiency and good relations with the host institution and partners.
Clearly if initiatives such as the Masters training programmes are to be expanded further
then additional resources will need to be found
Summary and Recommendations
The performance of the CoE, thus far, appears to have been exceptionally good. More
consideration perhaps needs to be given to the exchange of staff with other centres of
excellence in geohazards research worldwide. The centre should aim to organise and
host more international workshops and conference symposia to raise its international
profile (though there clearly are budget limitations); they are already doing some good
work in this respect.
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\appb_icg-midway_evaluation.doc
FNa/tha
International Centre for Geohazards
Annual Report - 2006
Appendix B – Results of Midway Evaluation of ICG
Report No.:
Date:
Rev.:
Rev. date:
Page:
20031103-4
2007-03-31
B6
Publication in high ISI journals is one of the metrics by which research success is
conventionally judged and this should be given greater priority in the future.
Excerpts from the technical evaluation reports of ICG
“The centre (ICG) has indeed achieved a worldwide reputation as one of the foremost
research centres in geohazards.”
“The ICG is uniquely poised to make fundamental contributions in basic research and
also in applied hazard mitigation.”
“The ICG has rapidly acquired a worldwide reputation, disproportional to its small size,
location and budget.”
“The list of the academic staff reads like the “Who is who” on the international
platform.”
“The head of the centre is performing exceptionally well, combining polished Frenchstyle manners with oriental tactfulness and Japanese efficiency.”
“Dr Lacasse is a strong role model internationally for women in science.”
“... the percentage of female researchers at all qualification levels is exceptionally high.”
“The centre’s research training is of highest standard.”
“The contact to industry is exceptionally strong.”
“... the reviewer is impressed by the current organisational structure as well as by the
evaluation of the scientific research, in particular in relation to the high level of
efficiency and internal and external relation”.
f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\appb_icg-midway_evaluation.doc
FNa/tha
Kontroll- og referanseside/
Review and reference page
Oppdragsgiver/Client
Dokument nr/Document No.
The Research Council of Norway
20031103-4
Kontraktsreferanse/
Contract reference
Dato/Date
SFF – ICG 146035/420
2007-03-30
Distribusjon/Distribution
Dokumenttittel/Document title
International Centre for Geohazards – Annual report – 2006
… Fri/Unlimited
Prosjektleder/Project Manager
: Begrenset/Limited
Farrokh Nadim
Utarbeidet av/Prepared by
… Ingen/None
Farrokh Nadim
Emneord/Keywords
Land, fylke/Country, County
Havområde/Offshore area
Kommune/Municipality
Feltnavn/Field name
Sted/Location
Sted/Location
Kartblad/Map
Felt, blokknr./Field, Block No.
UTM-koordinater/UTM-coordinates
Kvalitetssikring i henhold til/Quality assurance according to
NS-EN ISO9001
Kontrollert
av/
Reviewed
by
Kontrolltype/
Type of review
Dokument/Document
Revisjon 1/Revision 1
Revisjon 2/Revision 2
Kontrollert/Reviewed
Kontrollert/Reviewed
Kontrollert/Reviewed
Dato/Date
Dato/Date
Dato/Date
2007.03.30
FNa
Helhetsvurdering/
General
Evaluation *
SL
Språk/Style
SL
Teknisk/Technical
THa
Utforming/Layout
2007.03.30
SL
Slutt/Final
2007.03.30
Sign.
Sign.
- Skjønn/Intelligence
- Total/Extensive
- Tverrfaglig/
Interdisciplinary
Kopiering/Copy quality
* Gjennomlesning av hele rapporten og skjønnsmessig vurdering av innhold og presentasjonsform/
On the basis of an overall evaluation of the report, its technical content and form of presentation
Dokument godkjent for utsendelse/
Document approved for release
Dato/Date
Sign.
30 March 2007
Sign.